Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process
Transcript
- 0:04Speaker 1: All systems going clear, the lift Up? What's going on? Everybody?
- 0:38Speaker 1: UFC three twenty six, Max Holloway Charles Olivera for the
- 0:42Speaker 1: BMF title T Mobile Arena Fight Capital of the World.
- 0:46Speaker 1: I'm excited for this one. Nine of the thirteen fights
- 0:48Speaker 1: expected to finish, only one really big favorite. It's minus
- 0:51Speaker 1: six fifty Dante Johnson. It's now nine hundred little spoiler alert,
- 0:56Speaker 1: but after that only one favorite minus three. Otherwise all
- 1:01Speaker 1: of them ust and minus three hundred, so pretty much
- 1:03Speaker 1: the complete opposite card as we had last week. I
- 1:06Speaker 1: hope you guys had a great week last week. I'm
- 1:08Speaker 1: definitely excited for this one. I don't think you can
- 1:10Speaker 1: drop too many better fights than Max Holloway and Charles
- 1:13Speaker 1: Olivera Violence, Violence, Violence. How are we doing this week?
- 1:15Speaker 2: Big Marley? Good? Yeah, pump for the main event. I
- 1:19Speaker 2: don't know how you can't be it must watch TV,
- 1:22Speaker 2: appointment TV, whatever you want to call it. He's two
- 1:25Speaker 2: of my favorite all time fighters, so it's it's one
- 1:28Speaker 2: where I don't want either one of them to lose,
- 1:29Speaker 2: but I I have to watch.
- 1:32Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, Charles Olivera probably is my favorite. Habib was
- 1:37Speaker 1: up there, not necessarily like Charles, just like every time
- 1:40Speaker 1: you tune in, He's never gonna be in a boring fight.
- 1:42Speaker 1: All Habib did was just go out there and dominate.
- 1:45Speaker 1: And I appreciate greatness for sure, Like I always always
- 1:49Speaker 1: will remember against Justin Gaichie when he could have broke
- 1:52Speaker 1: his arm and he staidstead because his family was in
- 1:56Speaker 1: attendance and he liked Justin Gaichie. He went and he transitioned.
- 1:59Speaker 1: I can't remember exactly what triangle choke. I think he
- 2:02Speaker 1: did a triangle choke. Just shows how special I mean
- 2:05Speaker 1: mid fight, you have a submission, you can finish on,
- 2:08Speaker 1: you think, and you respect your opponent enough to then
- 2:11Speaker 1: twitch to something else and tap them out. Like that's
- 2:13Speaker 1: just next level fucking savagery. So yeah, Oli Vera though
- 2:17Speaker 1: right now is is my favorite fighter. The dude's aura
- 2:20Speaker 1: is off the charts every single time he walks out.
- 2:23Speaker 1: I mean, you know, he's center stage and how do
- 2:25Speaker 1: you not love Max Holloway BMF. Both of these guys
- 2:28Speaker 1: for sure deserve it.
- 2:29Speaker 2: Absolutely.
- 2:31Speaker 1: Any any first thoughts for broad slid Overview for you.
- 2:36Speaker 2: Now, you kind of nailed it. I think it's just
- 2:38Speaker 2: the opposite of last week's where we only have the
- 2:40Speaker 2: one clear, big favorite that everyone's gonna want to target.
- 2:43Speaker 2: Everyone's gonna want to flop to the main event as well,
- 2:46Speaker 2: and then after that, I think he could get a
- 2:48Speaker 2: little bit spread out. I think there's fights people won't
- 2:51Speaker 2: want to target as much, which could lead to my
- 2:53Speaker 2: you know, four and five stars being higher on than
- 2:55Speaker 2: I would hope.
- 2:56Speaker 1: But I don't know, looking forward to talking about with you. Yeah,
- 2:59Speaker 1: I mean thirteen fights, that's great. As long as we
- 3:02Speaker 1: keep all thirteen ownership will be spread out to an extent,
- 3:05Speaker 1: like Dante Johnson the big favorite, Max Holloway, and then
- 3:08Speaker 1: Charles Olivera the clear chalkiest options. But after that, I
- 3:12Speaker 1: don't think we see anyone get to the forty percent
- 3:14Speaker 1: range and then gets really spread out after there. So,
- 3:17Speaker 1: like always MMA like each individual lineup should not tell
- 3:22Speaker 1: a story. There's nothing. All the fights are independent. Each
- 3:24Speaker 1: individual lineup, though, based on the contest you're in, should
- 3:27Speaker 1: make sense. If you're in the flagship with twenty eight
- 3:29Speaker 1: thousand people or whatever it may be, you gotta get
- 3:32Speaker 1: a little different. You got to mix in lower owned options.
- 3:34Speaker 1: If you start your lineup with Dante Johnson main event.
- 3:37Speaker 1: If you're fading the main event, you can play Dante Johnson,
- 3:39Speaker 1: get a lot more chalky ways to get different. Obviously
- 3:42Speaker 1: leaves some money. Look at our ownership which is always
- 3:44Speaker 1: up on the site, will be tomorrow. Click in a
- 3:47Speaker 1: sub fifteen percent play, click in three sub thirty percent plays,
- 3:51Speaker 1: leave two hundred bucks something like that. In Roster Construction,
- 3:55Speaker 1: we talk about it. If you're playing Insteade of Dante Johnson,
- 3:58Speaker 1: you play Cody Brundage, well, then you can play the
- 4:01Speaker 1: main event Chalk Chalk chalk because you just did one
- 4:03Speaker 1: thing to get different. So we do have an education video.
- 4:06Speaker 1: Also more education MMA. Big Marley and I talked for
- 4:11Speaker 1: hour and a half answer questions from people, and yeah,
- 4:14Speaker 1: that's evergreen content. We did that last summer, but discussed
- 4:17Speaker 1: the ins and outs of MMA. DFS a very fun game.
- 4:20Speaker 1: It's definitely some I know fights that go into it,
- 4:22Speaker 1: but it's also a roster construction game. When you win,
- 4:26Speaker 1: how much do you win? My man Ian I keep
- 4:28Speaker 1: shouting him out, but yeah, when you win one hundred
- 4:30Speaker 1: and thirty thousand dollars, you deserve multiple shout outs. That's
- 4:33Speaker 1: a definition of when you win how much do you win?
- 4:36Speaker 1: We got to bring the noise we got Bradley. I
- 4:38Speaker 1: hope everyone's doing well and Nicholas great to see. He
- 4:41Speaker 1: was in the NBA chat early earlier. Big Marley kept
- 4:44Speaker 1: asking when the UFC video was so here we are,
- 4:47Speaker 1: you're in the live channel. We appreciate that, like fund
- 4:50Speaker 1: helps us out a ton as always no time to waste.
- 4:53Speaker 1: First fight of the night, Luke fernand his minus two
- 4:55Speaker 1: twenty five taking on Ridolpho Balato plus one ninety minus
- 4:58Speaker 1: four hundred for this fight to finish Fernandez minus one
- 5:01Speaker 1: sixty five inside the distance, Blotto plus three hundred Fernandez
- 5:05Speaker 1: in round one plus one eighty five he did open
- 5:07Speaker 1: plus two hundred in round one. This is tied for
- 5:10Speaker 1: the second most likely fight to finish. You see minus
- 5:13Speaker 1: six hundred right here and then three minus four hundreds
- 5:16Speaker 1: to finish. I mean, I obviously have an interest in
- 5:18Speaker 1: a fight that's minus four hundred to finish with the
- 5:21Speaker 1: under one and a half at plus one fifteen. Sign
- 5:23Speaker 1: me up on both sides. Yeah, how do you see it? Yeah?
- 5:27Speaker 2: I think it's a good one to target both sides
- 5:29Speaker 2: of I am more excited about Fernandez just looks like
- 5:33Speaker 2: a solid prospect. He is thirty, but he's six and
- 5:36Speaker 2: oh he's pretty green. But he has a solid grappling
- 5:40Speaker 2: wrestling background and he's been knocking guys out too, So
- 5:43Speaker 2: he's got what you want with the power and the wrestling.
- 5:47Speaker 2: The volume, I don't know. Maybe could be an issue
- 5:50Speaker 2: if it's going to be a striking match and then
- 5:51Speaker 2: there is no knockout, but I wouldn't expect that to
- 5:54Speaker 2: be the case. I would think he's going to knock
- 5:56Speaker 2: him out or he's gonna be wrestling and then be
- 5:58Speaker 2: lootto well rounded five only seventy three hundred dollars. He
- 6:02Speaker 2: could take advantage of a you know, six to zero
- 6:05Speaker 2: fighter who is green, and I think Blatto could get
- 6:07Speaker 2: a finish on the feet, could get a finish on
- 6:09Speaker 2: the mat. I don't really think he can dictate where
- 6:12Speaker 2: the fight is gonna take place consistently, but I do
- 6:15Speaker 2: think he could land a takedown or two of his
- 6:17Speaker 2: own in this fight seventy three hundred dollars. If he wins,
- 6:21Speaker 2: I think he's gonna have a really good chance of
- 6:24Speaker 2: being on that optimal lineup. So I want to be
- 6:26Speaker 2: pretty heavy on this fight in general. I did think
- 6:29Speaker 2: about putting it as a four star though, because I
- 6:31Speaker 2: think it could be a lot of Fernandez cage holding
- 6:35Speaker 2: time where we're not getting any points along there until
- 6:38Speaker 2: he does get a takedown. So it's in between a
- 6:41Speaker 2: four and a five star for me. And if I
- 6:43Speaker 2: had to move one of my five stars down to
- 6:45Speaker 2: a four, this would be the one.
- 6:48Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with everything you said. I mean, if
- 6:50Speaker 1: you're seeing minus four hundred to finish on this card
- 6:52Speaker 1: tied for the second highest, like, I'm just gonna play it,
- 6:54Speaker 1: and I'm gonna play both sides plus three hundred for
- 6:57Speaker 1: Blato to win. If he does win, I mean, not
- 7:00Speaker 1: guaranteed to be optimal by any means, but you definitely
- 7:03Speaker 1: take that all day and run with it. He has
- 7:05Speaker 1: a better submission prop or actually about the same plus
- 7:08Speaker 1: six fifty by sub plus six hundred by ko And
- 7:12Speaker 1: like you said, Fernandez is six and oh now he
- 7:14Speaker 1: did have a I believe six amateur fights as well,
- 7:17Speaker 1: which you do like to see a little bit. He's
- 7:19Speaker 1: never lost, it says his UFC debut, though, I mean
- 7:22Speaker 1: b Loto's fought from UFC competition. He's a big cat himself.
- 7:26Speaker 1: If Fernanda's like if he gets hit hard early and
- 7:29Speaker 1: has a deal with adversity. You never know how some
- 7:31Speaker 1: of these guys will react. So I'm definitely gonna play
- 7:34Speaker 1: Plato and I'm definitely playing Luke Fernanda's his ownership has
- 7:37Speaker 1: to say in check somewhat due to Max Holloway being
- 7:39Speaker 1: one hundred less and then like Gregor Rodriguez is cheaper,
- 7:42Speaker 1: who's gonna get some ownership Tobias like, I look at
- 7:46Speaker 1: this fight very similar, these two very similar props, money
- 7:49Speaker 1: line all that, So the ownership will have to be
- 7:53Speaker 1: after Max Halloween Dante Johnson spread out to an extent.
- 7:56Speaker 1: At the end of the day, Fernandez could outscore Dante Johnson,
- 7:59Speaker 1: not saying you necessarily have to leave the money and
- 8:02Speaker 1: do a one v one pivot, But I'm fine like
- 8:04Speaker 1: doing a two. I mean, I would be fine in
- 8:06Speaker 1: the flag ship. I don't think it's crazy. He's still
- 8:08Speaker 1: minus one fifty five to finish. But yeah, very clear
- 8:11Speaker 1: or very clear the fights you want to target, in
- 8:13Speaker 1: my opinion, and I just want to play both sides
- 8:16Speaker 1: of them and load up as much as possible. And
- 8:18Speaker 1: this is one of them, for sure. One that's not
- 8:21Speaker 1: really one of them is this next one. Jung Young
- 8:24Speaker 1: Lee minus three fifty taking I guess and Blanos plus
- 8:28Speaker 1: two eighty five minus won sixty five for this fight.
- 8:30Speaker 1: To finish, Lee minus one oh five inside the distance
- 8:33Speaker 1: Bolanos plus four to twenty five. As you can see
- 8:36Speaker 1: on here. When I put these up on Tuesday, Lee
- 8:39Speaker 1: was minus two fifty. Now he's minus three fifty, so
- 8:43Speaker 1: he's taking a whole dollar uh overnight. And yeah, I
- 8:47Speaker 1: mean Bolanos will be one of my first fades on
- 8:49Speaker 1: the card. That's a lot of line movement on the
- 8:51Speaker 1: Lee side. I think Lee's better wherever the fight goes.
- 8:54Speaker 1: Blanos has power, but I mean, yeah, the dude's eight
- 8:56Speaker 1: and five at the end of the day. His wins
- 8:58Speaker 1: in the UFC have been again bad competition. I've kind
- 9:02Speaker 1: of struggled with what to do with Lee because he's
- 9:04Speaker 1: the second highest price fighter, Like he's right below Dante Johnson.
- 9:08Speaker 1: He's gonna definitely be lower on than Johnson, then Fernandez
- 9:11Speaker 1: and Tobias and Holloway, like he's the pivot of all
- 9:13Speaker 1: pivots in this range. He's minus one oh five to finish,
- 9:17Speaker 1: which isn't bad, but like a second or third on
- 9:20Speaker 1: finish might not be enough. So I'm gonna throw it
- 9:22Speaker 1: to you on do you think he wrestles an easy
- 9:24Speaker 1: path there? Because if it's just striking, I don't love
- 9:28Speaker 1: him much. His round one prop is plus two fifty,
- 9:32Speaker 1: which I like to see open plus two seventy five,
- 9:34Speaker 1: and what makes me think he will wrestle a little bit?
- 9:36Speaker 1: Submission prop plus three twenty five open plus four hundred.
- 9:40Speaker 1: Bilanos again the worst off of his back. He's most
- 9:43Speaker 1: dangerous on the feet. So can we get like multiple
- 9:45Speaker 1: takedowns from Lee in this one? And how do you
- 9:47Speaker 1: see it going?
- 9:48Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not sure about this one. This one I
- 9:50Speaker 2: really don't want to target. I put it as a
- 9:53Speaker 2: three star originally because of the inside the distance line,
- 9:56Speaker 2: but I just moved it to a two star as
- 9:58Speaker 2: you were speaking. Also changed it to Lee is my
- 10:00Speaker 2: four star, Bolanos is the two star. I just I
- 10:06Speaker 2: think it's a good matchup for Lee with Bolanos coming
- 10:08Speaker 2: up in Wait. Lee's gonna be the bigger guy, the
- 10:11Speaker 2: more athletic fighter. I think he's gonna be faster everywhere.
- 10:15Speaker 2: Bolanos is just a powerful guy who can land a
- 10:18Speaker 2: big shot and he can maybe get a takedown or two,
- 10:21Speaker 2: but he's just he's one of those guys that doesn't
- 10:24Speaker 2: have a high work rate. Now, I don't like targeting
- 10:26Speaker 2: those types of fighters. See, I think Bolanos is a
- 10:28Speaker 2: good fad in this one, and then Lee is just
- 10:31Speaker 2: I look at him at ninety three hundred as finish
- 10:34Speaker 2: or bust. I don't know about first round. Maybe you
- 10:36Speaker 2: get there as a second rounder as well, but early
- 10:39Speaker 2: finish or bust for Lee because I don't see him
- 10:42Speaker 2: being a very high work rate guy either. It just
- 10:45Speaker 2: could be a fight where he's able to bully his
- 10:47Speaker 2: opponent a little bit wherever the fight goes, and he
- 10:49Speaker 2: could get a knockout or submission in this fight. So
- 10:52Speaker 2: Lee's the preferred play. But really my overall preferred play
- 10:56Speaker 2: is just to avoid this fight, target other ones and
- 10:58Speaker 2: hope they outscore this.
- 11:00Speaker 1: That makes sense just looking at our quick projected ownership
- 11:05Speaker 1: right now, Yeah, we have Lee at seventeen percent and
- 11:07Speaker 1: he's plus two to fifteen round one, which comes up
- 11:10Speaker 1: to twenty eight point six percent. So when you just
- 11:13Speaker 1: look at it like that, now, not every round one
- 11:15Speaker 1: win will be optimal. I don't think on this card.
- 11:17Speaker 1: I mean, if you told me he gets a round
- 11:18Speaker 1: one win, I'm at least double the field on Lee
- 11:21Speaker 1: because of what it does with your lineups, But it's
- 11:24Speaker 1: by no means ever, like one hundred percent of his
- 11:26Speaker 1: first round wins will be optimal, because I do think
- 11:28Speaker 1: the upper tier has a lot of upside. But yeah,
- 11:31Speaker 1: I mean, just seeing that big of a difference, like
- 11:33Speaker 1: ten to eleven percent right there, does make me I
- 11:36Speaker 1: will definitely keep Lee in the player pool and use
- 11:38Speaker 1: him if I'm playing Holloway or Charles only there, and
- 11:41Speaker 1: then I'm playing a chalky mid tier fight like the
- 11:44Speaker 1: Toom Barrel and Dirden fight, like if I'm Chalk Chalk Chalk.
- 11:48Speaker 1: I am fine playing Lee to get a little different,
- 11:50Speaker 1: and you don't necessarily have to go Dante down to
- 11:52Speaker 1: Lee and leave two hundred. You can leave one hundred
- 11:55Speaker 1: leaves zero dollars. And playing Lee alone gets you a
- 11:57Speaker 1: little different because people will just go Fernandez, people will
- 12:01Speaker 1: just go Tobias Hall theway, all of that in a vacuum.
- 12:05Speaker 1: And I do prefer Lee over Kyle Bijio, who is
- 12:09Speaker 1: one hundred less there, So yeah, I'm gonna play some
- 12:11Speaker 1: Lee and Blanos is, Yeah, he's not very good, so
- 12:14Speaker 1: I'm not going there what's up, Cameron. Great to see you.
- 12:17Speaker 1: Ysn is in here. Always good to see you as well.
- 12:20Speaker 1: Hope you guys having a great day. Ready for a
- 12:22Speaker 1: nice weekend. Oh I don't know what why this just
- 12:26Speaker 1: made me think of it, but I'm gonna be in
- 12:27Speaker 1: your side of town, Indianapolis for the final four for
- 12:31Speaker 1: a bachelor party. So if yeah, if you're April second
- 12:36Speaker 1: to the sixth, I'll be there Thursday to Sunday. So
- 12:40Speaker 1: if we're ever out and I can hit you up
- 12:42Speaker 1: and you got nothing going on, can come hang out
- 12:44Speaker 1: with the boys?
- 12:45Speaker 2: Absolutely?
- 12:47Speaker 1: Yeah, you hung out with Zim and Siggy, two of
- 12:49Speaker 1: the guys that will be uh, they'll be out there
- 12:51Speaker 1: as well, So yeah, I'll hit you up there. I
- 12:54Speaker 1: don't know what made me think of that. All right,
- 12:57Speaker 1: let's go. Next fight on the card. We got Raphael
- 13:02Speaker 1: Tobias minus one eighty taking on Deer. There's a guy
- 13:05Speaker 1: plus one fifty five minus four hundred for this fight
- 13:08Speaker 1: to finish Tobias minus one fifty five. Inside the distance,
- 13:11Speaker 1: there's a guy plus two seventy five run one proSP
- 13:15Speaker 1: for Tobias plus two hundred. Another fight, you can see
- 13:18Speaker 1: line movement minus two twenty on Tuesday. I believe I
- 13:22Speaker 1: put these up Tuesday. It was either Monday or Tuesday,
- 13:24Speaker 1: but minus two twenty and now he's minus one eighty,
- 13:27Speaker 1: so Deer has taken some money. I'll let you start
- 13:30Speaker 1: on this one. How do you see it?
- 13:33Speaker 2: I like this Tobias guy, dud twenty two years old,
- 13:37Speaker 2: but he's a grown ass man. He's a big dude.
- 13:40Speaker 2: He's got muscles all over, he's got abs on his back.
- 13:45Speaker 2: I really like his whole game. I think he's gonna
- 13:47Speaker 2: have a big grappling wrestling advantage in this fight if
- 13:50Speaker 2: he wants to take it there. But he also looks
- 13:53Speaker 2: like a solid striker too, who has big time power.
- 13:55Speaker 2: And if he wants to win a striking match, I
- 13:57Speaker 2: think he probably could, so I'm gonna be high on Tobias.
- 14:01Speaker 2: But if he wants to go out and strike with
- 14:05Speaker 2: Nergate Ner Jose, then I think he could get knocked out.
- 14:10Speaker 2: Uh and at seventy two hundred dollars, a big boy
- 14:13Speaker 2: like Norgose could end up on the optimal lineup that way.
- 14:16Speaker 2: But I do look at Norgose as like a knockout
- 14:18Speaker 2: or bus type of fighter. I don't think he's going
- 14:20Speaker 2: to do a whole lot minutes a minute in this fight.
- 14:23Speaker 2: It would just be taking advantage of a of a
- 14:26Speaker 2: debut fighter and knocking him out. But Tobias is going
- 14:30Speaker 2: to be more of my I don't know about core play,
- 14:32Speaker 2: but I do want to be overweight to the field
- 14:34Speaker 2: on Tobias just because I like his style in general.
- 14:37Speaker 2: H and I think he could go a long way
- 14:39Speaker 2: in the UFC, especially being only twenty two years old
- 14:42Speaker 2: allegedly allegedly.
- 14:44Speaker 1: I like that. I I mean, this is obviously a
- 14:47Speaker 1: fight I want to play a lot of as it's
- 14:48Speaker 1: a minus four hundred to finish. Let me just pull
- 14:51Speaker 1: this up real quick. Yeah, so under one and a
- 14:55Speaker 1: half open plus one twenty five and now is minus
- 14:58Speaker 1: one twenty so the is taking money, and again Ergazay
- 15:02Speaker 1: has taking some money. Tobias opened minus three hundred. Again
- 15:05Speaker 1: it was minus two fifty or minus two forty March first,
- 15:10Speaker 1: and now he's sitting minus one eighty. The line just
- 15:12Speaker 1: keeps closing actually and going ergozy. This one is my
- 15:16Speaker 1: preferred play just for the sense of I mean, I
- 15:19Speaker 1: get eighteen hundred dollars savings on a fight where Ergasy
- 15:23Speaker 1: is taking money ergas haesn't looked great in the UFC,
- 15:26Speaker 1: but he has UFC experience, while Tobias is making his
- 15:29Speaker 1: UFC debut, and I think it's I think it's a
- 15:32Speaker 1: closer line fight and the line's moving that way, so
- 15:34Speaker 1: it makes me feel better. I picked him at plus
- 15:36Speaker 1: one eighty five, but if he stuff's takedowns, I think
- 15:38Speaker 1: this is close to a coin flip fight. Now, Like
- 15:40Speaker 1: you said, if Tobias and as he should try and
- 15:43Speaker 1: get it to the mat Nergozay has looked absolutely lost
- 15:46Speaker 1: on the map, but you have to think after getting
- 15:48Speaker 1: exposed twice that he's working on his ground game. He
- 15:51Speaker 1: came in decently touted as well and has dropped the
- 15:54Speaker 1: ball thus far. So it feels like a by low
- 15:56Speaker 1: spot at seventy two hundred bucks and that's why I'm
- 15:59Speaker 1: not playing bos like Blato, Great Play seventy three hundred, Ergazye,
- 16:03Speaker 1: Great Place seventy two hundred, Aguilar Good seventy one, Dirt
- 16:06Speaker 1: and Good seventy eight. Like we have some dogs on
- 16:08Speaker 1: this card that can be barking with short money lines
- 16:11Speaker 1: and upside, so Ergasy is one of them. One of
- 16:13Speaker 1: my favorite dogs in the lower tier and yeah, I mean,
- 16:16Speaker 1: I'm definitely gonna play Tobias dudes, dudes minus one fifty
- 16:20Speaker 1: five to finish under one and a half's minus one twenty.
- 16:24Speaker 1: Just load up on this fight. And uh yeah, I
- 16:27Speaker 1: hope the winner's optimal. So I definitely will be hoping
- 16:29Speaker 1: probably at least one of Fernanda's Bulato and Tobias Ergasy
- 16:33Speaker 1: is optimal, and if not, both of them would sound
- 16:36Speaker 1: pretty cool to me. As well. Let's get the same
- 16:38Speaker 1: performance as we got from Pinas last week. That Uh
- 16:41Speaker 1: that was nice to start that off. Yeah, all right,
- 16:45Speaker 1: keep it rolling. Nice fight.
- 16:46Speaker 2: Whoever, the other way commented, do you do you have
- 16:49Speaker 2: any like Duwayans sway you one one way or another?
- 16:54Speaker 2: If you watch Waynes on this one, I have a
- 16:56Speaker 2: feeling you might be swayed a little bit to the
- 16:57Speaker 2: Tobias side, just because of these guys. It looks like
- 16:59Speaker 2: if there's see these guys in a bar, you're picking
- 17:01Speaker 2: that guy immediately.
- 17:02Speaker 1: You know. It's funny. I mean yeah, I've I like,
- 17:05Speaker 1: I go back and forth on that because uh abdul
- 17:08Speaker 1: Razach Elisan costed me a lot of money, just started
- 17:11Speaker 1: UFC career. Just I mean, you ain't never picking again.
- 17:14Speaker 1: The stat dude in the bar and then some scrawny
- 17:16Speaker 1: little dude's gonna beat him. He kind of found his
- 17:19Speaker 1: own for a little bit after that. But I mean, yeah,
- 17:22Speaker 1: you wait, that's it can go both sides. There's definitely
- 17:25Speaker 1: plenty of people that do like it. You get a
- 17:28Speaker 1: good read on it sometimes, like their mentality and stuff.
- 17:30Speaker 1: But yeah, it's tough, but yeah, I'm excited to excited
- 17:34Speaker 1: to see this fight. I think it's gonna be a banger. Yeah,
- 17:37Speaker 1: next fight. Not as much as one of the fight's
- 17:39Speaker 1: favor to go the distance Sumadargi minus two thirty Hazu's
- 17:42Speaker 1: egg Yar plus one ninety five plus one ten for
- 17:45Speaker 1: this fight to finish, uh Sumadarji plus two forty five
- 17:49Speaker 1: inside the distance egg Yar plus two ninety So Sumadarji
- 17:53Speaker 1: opened plus two h five to finish now plus two
- 17:55Speaker 1: forty five went the wrong way, egg Yar open plus
- 17:58Speaker 1: four hundred to finish now plus two ninety going the
- 18:02Speaker 1: right way. And that's how I see this fight in DFS.
- 18:05Speaker 1: Give me a yard all day over Sumadarji. He's two
- 18:08Speaker 1: thousand cheaper any win from him, like looks a lot better.
- 18:12Speaker 1: His guillotine's nasty man like. That's a lot of where
- 18:14Speaker 1: this upside in his submission prop comes from. If that
- 18:18Speaker 1: dude gets your neck, he is a problem. Almost even
- 18:21Speaker 1: submitted to suer Tyra. He's stayed very comfortable on top,
- 18:24Speaker 1: but had that choken for like three and a half
- 18:26Speaker 1: minutes in round one, and I just I need upside
- 18:29Speaker 1: in the upper tier and Sumidarji at ninety one hundred
- 18:33Speaker 1: feels very difficult for him to get there. He will
- 18:35Speaker 1: be super super low owned. But I'd rather just play
- 18:38Speaker 1: Lee who's going to be very low owned as well.
- 18:40Speaker 1: I think he has more upside. I mean minus one
- 18:42Speaker 1: oh five to finish versus plus two forty five is
- 18:45Speaker 1: a big difference. So yeah, give me Hayzus. And I
- 18:47Speaker 1: see our man Nicholas thinks that heyesus by sub as well.
- 18:51Speaker 1: How do you see it?
- 18:52Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's it's gonna be just clear one
- 18:54Speaker 2: way or the other. If Jesus can get takedowns, then
- 18:59Speaker 2: I think he could dominate the ground game, or he
- 19:01Speaker 2: could just grab a neck and submit him right away.
- 19:04Speaker 2: If he can't, then I think he's gonna get picked
- 19:06Speaker 2: apart on the feet and probably knocked out eventually, and
- 19:09Speaker 2: and the issue with Aguilar is he's not a good wrestler.
- 19:12Speaker 2: He is a good grappler, good submission artist, but not
- 19:16Speaker 2: a good wrestler to dictate where the fight takes place.
- 19:19Speaker 2: But in this fight, where you are just clearly going
- 19:22Speaker 2: to be at a disadvantage, I think he has to
- 19:25Speaker 2: shoot for ten plus takedowns even if they're not going
- 19:27Speaker 2: his way. He just has to keep going for it.
- 19:29Speaker 2: But either way, I think it's just gonna be a
- 19:31Speaker 2: clear Sue Monter J wins the striking and or Aguilar
- 19:36Speaker 2: submits him. So I'm probably on the Aguilar side because
- 19:40Speaker 2: he is the one that has a better chance of
- 19:41Speaker 2: scoring well in a win, whereas if it is a
- 19:44Speaker 2: striking match, we need the knockout from the favorite. So
- 19:47Speaker 2: uh yeah, I guess underdog is the preferred play in
- 19:49Speaker 2: this one, but I like exposure to both sides.
- 19:52Speaker 1: Okay, for anyone out there new to UFC or just
- 19:55Speaker 1: haven't watched the fight, one of the best fights you'll
- 19:57Speaker 1: ever see, Sumadarji match Noel. If you're born tonight anytime
- 20:01Speaker 1: during the weekend, plug that fight in on YouTube. And yeah,
- 20:04Speaker 1: I mean one, just one of the craziest fights you
- 20:07Speaker 1: will ever see. Actually partied with Matt Schanelle like two
- 20:10Speaker 1: weeks after that fight. Dude still could not here can
- 20:13Speaker 1: cuss all, I mean crazy can cuss. Yeah, just just
- 20:17Speaker 1: wild wild stuff. So yeah, and I know many probably
- 20:21Speaker 1: right when I said that our picture and how that
- 20:23Speaker 1: fight wents. If not, I'm not gonna spoil it, but
- 20:26Speaker 1: I mean the definition of back and forth, definition of
- 20:28Speaker 1: all hearts from match channel in both guys. But yeah,
- 20:32Speaker 1: go go look at that fight. If you want to
- 20:34Speaker 1: watch some violence, keep it on. Next fight on the card,
- 20:38Speaker 1: new module Toomb and Barrel taking on Cody Durdin. We
- 20:42Speaker 1: have I'm just gonna call him Tom. It's a lot
- 20:44Speaker 1: easy toom Barrel. But Tom minus one sixty Dirton plus
- 20:48Speaker 1: one forty minus two hundred for this fight to finish,
- 20:51Speaker 1: Tom plus one twenty five inside the distance drten plus
- 20:54Speaker 1: two forty this fight open minus one seventy five to finish,
- 20:58Speaker 1: now minus two hundred. I'd also open to pick them
- 21:02Speaker 1: excuse me at minus one ten uh and I was
- 21:05Speaker 1: now minus one sixty on the tomb side. What stands
- 21:08Speaker 1: out just looking at the stone three point one takedowns
- 21:10Speaker 1: per fifteen for Tom three point nine to nine takedowns
- 21:13Speaker 1: for Cody Durton. I almost always like Cody Dirton fights,
- 21:17Speaker 1: especially on the dirt in side, because I mean, the
- 21:19Speaker 1: dude wants to wrestle. He actually has sneaky hands as well,
- 21:22Speaker 1: like he can he can crack a little bit, but
- 21:24Speaker 1: yeah he'll wrestle. He'll wrestle hard, and if the other
- 21:28Speaker 1: guy can wrestle a little bit too, and the paces
- 21:30Speaker 1: high dirtin also can slow down and gas a little bit.
- 21:33Speaker 1: This is my favorite mid tier fight and one of
- 21:35Speaker 1: my favorite fights to target on the card due to
- 21:37Speaker 1: both of these guys pricing. So yeah, i'm you don't
- 21:40Speaker 1: you have three stars on both as well? I was
- 21:42Speaker 1: hoping you might talk me into a side. I don't
- 21:44Speaker 1: really have too big of a preferred side either. I'd
- 21:47Speaker 1: side with ownership more whoever's lower own, but sign me
- 21:50Speaker 1: up for both of them for sure.
- 21:53Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say this is the fight I would
- 21:54Speaker 2: want to like just take shots on both sides of
- 21:57Speaker 2: the most because I have no real lianing, but I
- 22:00Speaker 2: do think it has a chance of scoring well for
- 22:03Speaker 2: either guy. Both guys do like to grapple, but they
- 22:06Speaker 2: can mix in a full him in a game. I
- 22:09Speaker 2: think Dirtin is the better overall minute winner. He's the
- 22:12Speaker 2: more proven guy, better wrestler in my opinion, But Tom Tum,
- 22:16Speaker 2: I think he is the more dangerous fighter. And even
- 22:19Speaker 2: if Dirtin is the better wrestler, he can still get
- 22:21Speaker 2: submitted with a takedown of his own, just getting choked out.
- 22:25Speaker 2: So I like the minute winning from Dirtin, the finishing
- 22:28Speaker 2: ability from Tom Tum, and then I also think that
- 22:32Speaker 2: I mean, we could see, you know, Tom Tum gets
- 22:35Speaker 2: a minute winning as well, and I think either side
- 22:37Speaker 2: has a chance at ninety five plus points and they
- 22:40Speaker 2: are right there in the mid range. My preferred play
- 22:43Speaker 2: is Dirtin because he's cheaper, and I am picking him
- 22:46Speaker 2: to win because it is, in my opinion, it's a
- 22:49Speaker 2: pick him fight, So just give me the value on
- 22:51Speaker 2: the underdog. But I don't make it. I don't like
- 22:55Speaker 2: him so much where I want to force an overweight
- 22:57Speaker 2: to him and then be underweight to the underside. I
- 23:00Speaker 2: want to be close to the field, if not above,
- 23:02Speaker 2: on both of them, and I just want to hopefully
- 23:05Speaker 2: see a lot of takedowns from both sides.
- 23:07Speaker 1: Yeah, I do like my first instinct was leading Dirt
- 23:10Speaker 1: in too, and I still might, but because of the
- 23:12Speaker 1: six hundred dollars savings, I could see Dirden being something
- 23:15Speaker 1: like twenty seven percent, maybe even like twenty nine percent,
- 23:19Speaker 1: and Tom like twenty two percent. So if that's the case,
- 23:22Speaker 1: and chalk your lineups. When I'm playing Dante Johnson, I'm
- 23:25Speaker 1: playing if you played Dante and Max Holloway, so many
- 23:28Speaker 1: of those teams will go dirt and obviously for the savings.
- 23:31Speaker 1: So then if you went Johnson, Holloway, Tom, obviously then
- 23:35Speaker 1: you need to find dogs. But there is enough dogs
- 23:37Speaker 1: on this card the combination when you go instead of
- 23:40Speaker 1: like when you go Charles Olivera, it'll be a lot
- 23:43Speaker 1: easier to go Tom and more people and Dirden's gonna
- 23:46Speaker 1: be higher own. In my opinion, I do think this
- 23:48Speaker 1: is one of the higher own fights combined in the
- 23:50Speaker 1: mid tier, but I'm gonna play it like usually for
- 23:54Speaker 1: the most part, the higher own fights they're higher on
- 23:57Speaker 1: for a reason. In mmadfster, there's ways to get different
- 24:00Speaker 1: friends by not just fading some of the best fights.
- 24:02Speaker 1: So yeah, sign me up for this one. I think
- 24:04Speaker 1: a very very good fight on both sides from one
- 24:08Speaker 1: really good fight to a very questionable mediocre fight is
- 24:12Speaker 1: Alberto Montas minus one eighty five taking out Ricky Tertios
- 24:15Speaker 1: plus one sixty plus one hundred for this fight to
- 24:18Speaker 1: finish Montos plus one sixty five inside the distance Tertios
- 24:22Speaker 1: plus four fifty. How do you see this one going?
- 24:27Speaker 2: Man, I'm not sure this. We haven't seen Alberto guy
- 24:31Speaker 2: in like a year and a half maybe two years.
- 24:33Speaker 2: I do think that he has potential, looks like a
- 24:37Speaker 2: strong guy. He's gonna have the the wrestling edge. I
- 24:40Speaker 2: want to say, he's also gonna have the one punch
- 24:42Speaker 2: power edge, but he's he's like a kind of similar
- 24:47Speaker 2: to Ablanos to me, where I think he's got the power,
- 24:50Speaker 2: but he probably just doesn't have the work rate. And
- 24:52Speaker 2: his specialty is submissions, So I think he could get
- 24:56Speaker 2: a take down, lock up a submission with like an
- 24:58Speaker 2: arm choke or something like that. But the work rate
- 25:02Speaker 2: side is going to be on the turkyo side. And
- 25:04Speaker 2: we haven't seen this guy in a year and a
- 25:05Speaker 2: half two years. Who no telling what this guy's cardio
- 25:08Speaker 2: looks like, but he is a muscle guy, and I
- 25:11Speaker 2: think he will slow down as the fight moves along.
- 25:13Speaker 2: And I think Turkios can really pick it up and
- 25:15Speaker 2: put a pace on him after the first round. So
- 25:18Speaker 2: the way I see it, Montes wins the first round,
- 25:22Speaker 2: maybe submits him in the first round. If he doesn't
- 25:24Speaker 2: submit him in the first round, I like Turkios to
- 25:26Speaker 2: come back win the second in the third round and
- 25:29Speaker 2: probably put up a decent score and he could mix
- 25:32Speaker 2: in takedowns of his own at that point. So Turkyos
- 25:35Speaker 2: my preferred play in this one. But Montes does have
- 25:38Speaker 2: first round submission potential at eighty five hundred. That's pretty solid.
- 25:42Speaker 2: I don't want to be too far under the field
- 25:43Speaker 2: on him, but if I had to, if I ended
- 25:46Speaker 2: up being underweight, I'd be okay with that.
- 25:48Speaker 1: All right, Maybe I'll buy my Tertios exposure a little bit.
- 25:51Speaker 1: Mantas my preferred side, just because I'm inside the distance
- 25:55Speaker 1: plus one sixty five versus plus one four point fifty
- 25:58Speaker 1: round one prop plus three twntas open plus three seventy
- 26:02Speaker 1: five Tertio's plus twelve hundred, and then the submission prop.
- 26:06Speaker 1: Like when you're looking at Montas plus two hundred by
- 26:08Speaker 1: sub open plus two seventy five, and he's plus five
- 26:12Speaker 1: fifty by Ko. So if that shows he has a
- 26:14Speaker 1: great anaconda choke, a great front choke, even if it
- 26:18Speaker 1: is standing, can wrap that puppy up. Others he can
- 26:20Speaker 1: drag him to the mat that way. Or yeah, if
- 26:22Speaker 1: he gets a takedown first round submission, I mean obviously
- 26:25Speaker 1: we take that all day at eighty five hundred, and
- 26:28Speaker 1: I do think his ownership not low own, but it's
- 26:32Speaker 1: definitely going to be in check. And the reason for
- 26:34Speaker 1: that we just talked about Tom at eighty four hundred.
- 26:36Speaker 1: I think people will like more and then Debt. People
- 26:39Speaker 1: will definitely like Gregor Rodriguez more at eighty six hundred.
- 26:42Speaker 1: So he sandwiched in between two solid plays there, and
- 26:46Speaker 1: I mean I in a vacuum, I like Montas less
- 26:49Speaker 1: than all of them, because I do think if he
- 26:52Speaker 1: doesn't get a round one finish, I don't know exactly
- 26:54Speaker 1: how his cardio will be. And uh if he gets
- 26:57Speaker 1: a finish in the second or third. But I was
- 27:01Speaker 1: struggling with what to do with tertios. You think he's
- 27:04Speaker 1: like even if he drops her on one, you think
- 27:06Speaker 1: it could do enough with the pace and maybe mixing
- 27:09Speaker 1: takedowns and rounds two to three to still score like
- 27:13Speaker 1: eighty two plus in a decision win.
- 27:15Speaker 2: Yeah, especially if Montes slows down. I really think you
- 27:20Speaker 2: could pick up the pace and like be a really
- 27:22Speaker 2: highest scoring third round type for him if he doesn't
- 27:25Speaker 2: finish as well. So I don't want to be too
- 27:27Speaker 2: far over overweight because Turkyos isn't really a good fighter.
- 27:31Speaker 2: He's just a high work rate type of fighter. He's
- 27:34Speaker 2: an awkward style and he can mix in takedowns over
- 27:37Speaker 2: and over because I don't think he's a really good
- 27:39Speaker 2: control grappler. So it could be he gets take down
- 27:42Speaker 2: Montes is able to get up, and then he's more
- 27:45Speaker 2: tired than he was last time. And I just don't
- 27:47Speaker 2: think Turkios will slow down.
- 27:49Speaker 1: No, I don't really think Tertios will slow down either. Man.
- 27:52Speaker 1: The fight I'll never get out of my head. I
- 27:54Speaker 1: just talked about matching Alsumadarjo in the best fights you'll
- 27:56Speaker 1: ever see. One of the worst fights you'll ever see
- 27:59Speaker 1: is Ricky Terios aimons a hobby in Tertios's debut, I
- 28:03Speaker 1: mean it rivals Carlos spars the rosanama Unis without a doubt,
- 28:07Speaker 1: just we had to watch ten minutes less of it.
- 28:09Speaker 1: But I mean all you did was here the dude
- 28:11Speaker 1: like he was playing tennis like, and the dude was
- 28:14Speaker 1: doing I think he landed twenty seven significant strikes all fights.
- 28:17Speaker 1: So that fight's tough to get out of my head.
- 28:19Speaker 1: But then he had to fight before against Brady heast Stand,
- 28:22Speaker 1: which was a very good fight for the altimate fighter,
- 28:25Speaker 1: and I think more so it was because he Stand
- 28:27Speaker 1: pushed the pace. But that was the definition of like, Yeah,
- 28:30Speaker 1: he Stand kind of started as slow in Tertios most
- 28:33Speaker 1: definitely did not. I also saw him in Dallas when
- 28:36Speaker 1: I was at one of the fights, and yeah, the
- 28:38Speaker 1: dude might have been I don't as drugged out as possible.
- 28:41Speaker 1: The dude's definitely I don't know if it's necessarily a stoner.
- 28:44Speaker 1: I don't know if he was. He was tripping on stuff, hey, respect,
- 28:49Speaker 1: Yeah for sure. I mean just looking at the guy,
- 28:51Speaker 1: he definitely definitely seems like a nice, chill dude, no
- 28:54Speaker 1: doubt about that. But yeah, I definitely could could beat ass. Yeah,
- 28:58Speaker 1: I bumped Tertios up to an overweight tag on my
- 29:02Speaker 1: thing instead of underweight. Still more with the field, indifferent
- 29:05Speaker 1: to it, but Mantas is still my preferred play since
- 29:08Speaker 1: I think he's the one with ninety plus upside a
- 29:11Speaker 1: lot more in this one, which the inside the distance
- 29:13Speaker 1: prop reflects before it gets the next fight again. Just
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- 30:26Speaker 1: We have a slate plan. We have fight rankings, tier rankings, projections, ownership,
- 30:31Speaker 1: and yeah, discords a very big piece as well. I
- 30:33Speaker 1: usually give a like a line movement update Saturday morning
- 30:36Speaker 1: if anything changes, always tagging the discord. Yeah. People are
- 30:40Speaker 1: always in there talking fights when they're going on. So
- 30:42Speaker 1: a great place to be. We would love to have
- 30:45Speaker 1: you at the Nation, all right, Next fight on the card,
- 30:49Speaker 1: biggest favorite Dante Johnson minus nine hundred taken on Cody
- 30:52Speaker 1: Brundage plus six hundred minus six hundred for this fight
- 30:56Speaker 1: to finish, the most likely on the card Johnson minus
- 30:59Speaker 1: three twenty five in side of the distance, Brundage plus
- 31:01Speaker 1: five twenty five Johnson in a round one plus one twenty.
- 31:06Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, so, first of all, like bet online,
- 31:09Speaker 1: so he's Cody Brundage is plus six hundred money line
- 31:12Speaker 1: and plus five twenty five inside the distance. I mean, like,
- 31:15Speaker 1: obviously if you ever bet inside the distance, you are
- 31:18Speaker 1: doing it. Completely wrong. But you can see on Monday
- 31:21Speaker 1: or Tuesday. I can't remember when I did this. I
- 31:25Speaker 1: think I did it Monday now that i'm thinking about it.
- 31:27Speaker 1: Yeah it was Monday, I believe. But Johnson was minus
- 31:30Speaker 1: six fifty now he's minus nine hundred, so a lot
- 31:32Speaker 1: of money on the Johnson side. Cody Brundage big Marley's
- 31:36Speaker 1: favorite fighter if you are new here, But yeah, take
- 31:38Speaker 1: it away.
- 31:41Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm the first thing. I'm doing his X and
- 31:43Speaker 2: out Brundage. I mean, I'm sick of seeing this guy.
- 31:46Speaker 2: How's he getting so many damn fights in the UFC?
- 31:48Speaker 2: Hopefully this is the last one, but I think they're
- 31:51Speaker 2: setting them up to lose. He is taking this fight
- 31:54Speaker 2: on short notice. But Johnson looks like a decent prospect too,
- 31:58Speaker 2: is going to be dangerous on the eat, and he's
- 32:00Speaker 2: gonna be a better wrestler than Brundage too. I really
- 32:02Speaker 2: don't see how Brundage wins other than a flash knockout
- 32:05Speaker 2: or just grabs his neck and gets a submission. I'm
- 32:09Speaker 2: gonna take my chances and X that out. Hope he
- 32:11Speaker 2: doesn't get a DQ win or something like that. But uh,
- 32:15Speaker 2: for me, it's Johnson or pass. I think he is
- 32:17Speaker 2: gonna score well, probably one hundred plus points one hundred
- 32:20Speaker 2: and five or so be my guess. But I don't
- 32:22Speaker 2: know that that's gonna cut it on this card where
- 32:24Speaker 2: if Holloway wins, he's gonna outscore that. And then we
- 32:27Speaker 2: also have Rodriguez who you mentioned. We got Tom Tum
- 32:32Speaker 2: who's way cheaper, we got Tobias, we got lee Let Fernandez.
- 32:37Speaker 2: There's so many people, though, we don't really need to
- 32:40Speaker 2: get to Johnson because I think all those people have
- 32:43Speaker 2: just as high of a ceiling Johnson. I think he
- 32:46Speaker 2: maybe could get like a two knockdown type of thing
- 32:49Speaker 2: and score more that way. But I don't see this
- 32:51Speaker 2: being will fight where he's going out there and getting
- 32:53Speaker 2: ten takedowns and having one hundred and forty points or
- 32:56Speaker 2: something like that. I think he's just gonna finish Brundan
- 33:00Speaker 2: fast and score one hundred points.
- 33:05Speaker 1: M donkey, yeah, mute donkey. I totally with you. I mean,
- 33:10Speaker 1: I I debated playing like keeping Brundages underweight. The thing
- 33:15Speaker 1: with Brundage has is like in the first three minutes,
- 33:17Speaker 1: like the dude will throw bombs. I mean he'll he'll
- 33:19Speaker 1: sit back like he's not aggressive. He'll let you come
- 33:22Speaker 1: to you, and he can wrap up a neck, he
- 33:24Speaker 1: can throw bombs, a right hook and hope he gets
- 33:27Speaker 1: the finish and then the long of the fight goes.
- 33:29Speaker 1: If you push any bit of a pace, Frontage isn't
- 33:31Speaker 1: really doing much. I mean if he if he can
- 33:33Speaker 1: see the door, he'll take that door real quick. We've seen,
- 33:36Speaker 1: unfortunately too many fights that Cody Bruntage had Jacob malcun
- 33:40Speaker 1: absolutely owning them and then uh, I don't know, back
- 33:43Speaker 1: to the back of the headshot couldn't continue. Just he
- 33:46Speaker 1: had another one was it lassn or some uh? In
- 33:50Speaker 1: the first round just absolutely was owning. I'm about to
- 33:53Speaker 1: be a massive score. Nope.
- 33:55Speaker 2: Uh And that was like the one time, Oh my god,
- 33:58Speaker 2: I actually need Brunnage here for me the first time ever.
- 34:02Speaker 2: And then I hate everything.
- 34:04Speaker 1: Yeah exactly. So yeah, just one of those fighters that
- 34:08Speaker 1: we know. I mean, he's not in the octagon fighting killers.
- 34:11Speaker 1: I'm not gonna chirp him that way, but it is
- 34:13Speaker 1: unfortunate for sure, when something like that happens. Dante should
- 34:16Speaker 1: own him. He's gonna be really chalky though, he's like
- 34:18Speaker 1: fifty percent owned because he's weighing a tier of his
- 34:21Speaker 1: own and money line weighing the tier of his own
- 34:23Speaker 1: inside the distance prop and we have enough value on
- 34:26Speaker 1: the slate that do have upside where I think you
- 34:28Speaker 1: can fit them pretty comfortably on this card. I don't
- 34:31Speaker 1: really know where I'm gonna end up if I had
- 34:33Speaker 1: twenty five percent and loved everything I'm sending it, and
- 34:35Speaker 1: I'm just gonna hope that Fernandez, that Tobias, that maybe
- 34:40Speaker 1: Lee Gregor Rodriguez Holloway, that there's just other guys that
- 34:43Speaker 1: outscore them, or you just like how the roster construction works,
- 34:47Speaker 1: you just don't have the money. On my last shipper
- 34:49Speaker 1: with the Armin Serukian stuff, there was I can't remember
- 34:52Speaker 1: the guy's name, but he put up like one hundred
- 34:54Speaker 1: and thirty four DK points a first minute bonus most
- 34:58Speaker 1: points on the slate, wasn't on the optimal just because
- 35:01Speaker 1: of how the money situation ended up. So that can
- 35:04Speaker 1: always happen again in this card with Dante Johnson, So
- 35:07Speaker 1: I'm fine with a wide range of outcomes with what
- 35:10Speaker 1: I get of him, I'll be focusing more on other fights.
- 35:13Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say that I like him. I want
- 35:16Speaker 2: him in my lineup. But I also think he's gonna
- 35:18Speaker 2: be so owned that getting different makes me almost not
- 35:21Speaker 2: like him more than liking him.
- 35:23Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that makes a lot of sense. We
- 35:24Speaker 1: play an ownership game, and I think there's plenty of
- 35:26Speaker 1: upper tier fights that have the upside to outscore him.
- 35:30Speaker 1: Let's go to a fight that I will hope is
- 35:31Speaker 1: not optimal and doesn't have much upside. Long Jow minus
- 35:35Speaker 1: one fifty five taken on Cody Garbrandt plus one thirty
- 35:38Speaker 1: five plus one ten for this fight to finish Long
- 35:41Speaker 1: Jo plus two to fifty inside the distance, Garborrant plus
- 35:44Speaker 1: two to eighty five, and man these inside the distance props.
- 35:48Speaker 1: It was plus three p fifty for Long Jhau when
- 35:51Speaker 1: I looked a couple days ago to finish. Now it's
- 35:53Speaker 1: plus two fifty. Garbrand opened plus one seventy five to
- 35:57Speaker 1: finish now plus two eighty five.
- 36:00Speaker 2: Hmm.
- 36:01Speaker 1: Longhao opened a big favorite minus two hundred, pretty quick
- 36:04Speaker 1: buyback to the minus one fifty range, and it stayed
- 36:07Speaker 1: around there almost the whole time I have this fight.
- 36:11Speaker 1: It's a full fade, and I think I'm still going
- 36:13Speaker 1: that way. But seeing the line movement on Long Zhao's
- 36:15Speaker 1: inside the distance prop. If I'm playing fifteen plus teams,
- 36:18Speaker 1: I'm gonna keep Long Zhou in the pool. I'd be
- 36:21Speaker 1: fine if I got none. Long Zhao is my preferred play.
- 36:24Speaker 1: I mean, Cody's just so low volume nowadays. He's so
- 36:26Speaker 1: worried about his chin, Like he has power, but like
- 36:30Speaker 1: he wants to clinch. He'll want to like wrestle a
- 36:31Speaker 1: little bit. He just doesn't want to get hit, and
- 36:34Speaker 1: that can lean to boring fights. And yeah, you can
- 36:36Speaker 1: see on Monday this fight was minus one fifteen to finish.
- 36:39Speaker 1: Now it's plus one ten, so money coming in on
- 36:41Speaker 1: the over, but a lot of that it was on
- 36:44Speaker 1: the garbrand inside the distance side, and Long Zhao is
- 36:47Speaker 1: taking money. So I guess, like, how do you see
- 36:50Speaker 1: I'm telling you Long Zoo scores ninety five, Like how
- 36:53Speaker 1: does he do that? And then how do you see
- 36:54Speaker 1: this fight going?
- 36:56Speaker 2: I'd say he probably would finish him to do that,
- 37:00Speaker 2: But he is a well rounded fighter. He's gonna be
- 37:02Speaker 2: the higher work rate fighter as well. I think he
- 37:05Speaker 2: is more likely to land more takedowns, more likely to
- 37:08Speaker 2: land more shots, more likely to get a finish. So
- 37:11Speaker 2: for me, it's definitely Long joo or pass. I'm not
- 37:14Speaker 2: playing a single Cody Garbrant. If I have one hundred
- 37:16Speaker 2: and fifty lineups, I'm gonna have zero Cody Garbrandt and
- 37:19Speaker 2: zero Cody Brundage. Cody does have hands, he's got solid boxing,
- 37:25Speaker 2: He's got power in his hands too. You can't knock
- 37:28Speaker 2: people out when you don't throw punches, so I'm not
- 37:30Speaker 2: gonna be playing Garbrandt. He's a decent like athletic wrestler too,
- 37:35Speaker 2: but he doesn't wrestle, so there's just nothing to like
- 37:37Speaker 2: about Garbrandt anymore, and it's just long shoo er pass.
- 37:42Speaker 2: I almost did make this a one star though, because
- 37:45Speaker 2: I want to full fade it. If I just have
- 37:47Speaker 2: zero interest in the fight, all one star, but that'll
- 37:50Speaker 2: mean I have zero exposure to the fight as well,
- 37:53Speaker 2: So I don't know that I want that with long
- 37:55Speaker 2: show at eighty three hundred. That's why I have it
- 37:57Speaker 2: as a two star for now. But I would imagine
- 37:59Speaker 2: I'm under to him and zero percent Cody Garbrandt. Give
- 38:02Speaker 2: me a lung ch out just to beat them by
- 38:04Speaker 2: doing more.
- 38:06Speaker 1: You and I see it the same. Yeah, I plan
- 38:08Speaker 1: on ful fading it. I'm gonna probably play no Garbrant,
- 38:11Speaker 1: probably with twenty or less. Again, I the pros the
- 38:16Speaker 1: more I see it, they diversify a lot heavier. This
- 38:19Speaker 1: is one of the most high variant sports. Not only
- 38:22Speaker 1: does your guys need to win, and they can win
- 38:25Speaker 1: and get a first they can win, get a first
- 38:26Speaker 1: round finish and score ninety eight and still not be
- 38:29Speaker 1: optimal because if other guys outscore them, then they can
- 38:32Speaker 1: absolutely win. In the three clowns, rinks or cage side
- 38:36Speaker 1: see the fight completely different, and then you get screwed.
- 38:38Speaker 1: And then you can have it where you're dominating, you
- 38:40Speaker 1: kick them in the nuts and the dude wants to
- 38:42Speaker 1: quit or ipoke or this, and then you don't get
- 38:45Speaker 1: anything that way either. So there's variants on variants on variants.
- 38:49Speaker 1: You just have to know that before you put your
- 38:50Speaker 1: money in MMA. It'll go your way. Sometimes it'll go
- 38:53Speaker 1: against you. Sometimes I believe long term that stuff always
- 38:56Speaker 1: evens out. No, there's no such thing as it always will.
- 39:00Speaker 1: Sometimes you gotta run good in life and stuff like that.
- 39:02Speaker 1: But regardless, with all that being said, I'm probably not
- 39:06Speaker 1: gonna play Cody. I'm gonna keep long Jau in the pool.
- 39:09Speaker 1: But it's still my least favorite fight on the card. Yeah,
- 39:13Speaker 1: that's how I see it, all right. Next fight on
- 39:15Speaker 1: the card from my least favorite fight to one of
- 39:17Speaker 1: the best fights, A rematch Gregor Rodriguez minus one seventy
- 39:20Speaker 1: taken on Bruno Ferreira plus one forty five minus four
- 39:24Speaker 1: hundred for this fight to finish, Rodriguez minus won thirty
- 39:26Speaker 1: inside the distance fer Ara plus two to twenty five
- 39:30Speaker 1: Rodriguez round one plus two to fifty fer Ara plus
- 39:32Speaker 1: five fifty.
- 39:33Speaker 2: See.
- 39:34Speaker 1: Like I mentioned, this was a rematch from let Me
- 39:38Speaker 1: get the exact Day twenty twenty three. Rodriguez was a
- 39:42Speaker 1: minus two ninety favorite in that one, and Bruno Ferreira
- 39:47Speaker 1: right down the pipe knocks out Gregor Rodriguez, big upset.
- 39:51Speaker 1: He was most definitely optimal. They're now running it back.
- 39:54Speaker 1: I don't see any difference between either fighter, like both
- 39:57Speaker 1: have done good since that fight. Rodriguez has power, will
- 40:02Speaker 1: definitely have the grappling advantage. Ferrara has power, a solid
- 40:05Speaker 1: grappler himself, but I mean by no means should he
- 40:08Speaker 1: be trying to wrestle slash grapple in this fight. But
- 40:11Speaker 1: I do believe the better fighter can lose on some days.
- 40:14Speaker 1: I do think Gregor Rodriguez is the better fighter, the
- 40:16Speaker 1: more well rounded fighter. But when you have power like
- 40:18Speaker 1: Bruno Ferreira and it's a striking match and Gregory likes
- 40:21Speaker 1: to strike, I mean you obviously can get binks. So yeah,
- 40:24Speaker 1: the line's a lot closer nowadays or this fight than
- 40:28Speaker 1: it was last and again Monday minus two hundred. Now
- 40:31Speaker 1: it's minus one seventy Gregory, and it's hard to argue
- 40:34Speaker 1: with the line movement coming back to Ferrera when he
- 40:36Speaker 1: already won once and it's a high Varians fight, So
- 40:38Speaker 1: I'm going to be played both sides. I think Gregory
- 40:41Speaker 1: wrestles in this one, though I think that's in the
- 40:43Speaker 1: back of his head, and he really does want revenge,
- 40:46Speaker 1: and I do think he goes for a takedown, and
- 40:48Speaker 1: if he does get on top, I mean he very
- 40:50Speaker 1: well or take his back or whatever he does. He
- 40:53Speaker 1: could style on him that way. So let me before
- 40:55Speaker 1: I throw it too, let me see the subprop. Rodriguez
- 40:59Speaker 1: open plus four hundred by seven now plus three seventy
- 41:01Speaker 1: five plus one seventy by Ko. So yeah, still more
- 41:04Speaker 1: likely to win by KO. Ferrera plus two sixty five
- 41:07Speaker 1: by KO plus fifteen hundred by sub That definitely shows
- 41:11Speaker 1: the difference right there. So yeah, what do you see
- 41:13Speaker 1: in this rematch?
- 41:15Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm a big Rodriguez fan. I just think he's
- 41:18Speaker 2: the full MMA package, where really good boxing, ton of
- 41:23Speaker 2: power as well, just a solid striker, but he's even
- 41:26Speaker 2: better on the ground. He's a really good grappler, good wrestler,
- 41:31Speaker 2: He's got it all. But he also has chin issues
- 41:34Speaker 2: in cardio concerns as well. I'm not really worried about
- 41:37Speaker 2: the cardio against Bruno Ferreira, but I'm worried about the chin.
- 41:41Speaker 2: Already knocked him out once. I think he could do
- 41:43Speaker 2: it again seventy six hundred. I think we would want
- 41:48Speaker 2: it to be the first or a second round knockout
- 41:50Speaker 2: for him, because I don't see him doing really anything
- 41:52Speaker 2: minutes to minute up until that point. But a first
- 41:55Speaker 2: round knockout from Ferrera is gonna put him on the
- 41:57Speaker 2: Optima lineup. If he doesn't get I just think Rodriguez
- 42:01Speaker 2: probably dominates him. I mean, frere is coming off a
- 42:04Speaker 2: win against Vittori, so his confidence is probably pretty high.
- 42:07Speaker 2: But I would take Rodriguez over Vittori too. Rodriguez just
- 42:10Speaker 2: so damn good and I think he could dominate him
- 42:13Speaker 2: on the ground score well, so I hope you are
- 42:14Speaker 2: I hope you're right. I hope he does go out
- 42:16Speaker 2: there and wrestle, but I'm not sure. I never know
- 42:18Speaker 2: what Rodriguez is gonna do because he is so well rounded.
- 42:21Speaker 2: I think he beats Ferrera on the feet too. But
- 42:23Speaker 2: you're just gonna be sweating it out if you're overweight,
- 42:25Speaker 2: which I will be to Rodriguez on this fight, But
- 42:28Speaker 2: give me Rodriguez by knockout or grappling domination.
- 42:33Speaker 1: Does uh Do you think Marvinvitore is even good anymore? No?
- 42:37Speaker 2: I think he was probably on allegedly on some really
- 42:40Speaker 2: good steroids back a handful of years ago, and now
- 42:44Speaker 2: he's probably not taking him anymore. Yeah.
- 42:46Speaker 1: I mean he got there against is, He got dominated
- 42:49Speaker 1: that Paula Coasta fight I think was his best fight.
- 42:52Speaker 1: Paula Costa missweight by like fifteen pounds. They gave it
- 42:55Speaker 1: a catchweight. Vittori went up, and I mean he was
- 42:58Speaker 1: eating bombs from Paul Coast and still, I mean, the dude,
- 43:02Speaker 1: regardless of if we still think he's good this that,
- 43:04Speaker 1: I mean, the dude's blockhead is going to go down
- 43:06Speaker 1: as one of the best chins of all time in
- 43:08Speaker 1: the UFC, There's no doubt about that. But yeah, I
- 43:11Speaker 1: would I would definitely take Gregor Rodriguez over Marvin Vattori
- 43:15Speaker 1: as well. Also one of the biggest robberies Marvin Vattori
- 43:18Speaker 1: and Roman de LEDs. Oh my goodness. Uh yeah, talk
- 43:21Speaker 1: about three clowns quick cage side. You can do everything
- 43:25Speaker 1: right in a fight and still get robbed, and that's
- 43:27Speaker 1: just unfortunately part of this sport. Four fights left some
- 43:32Speaker 1: pretty good fights, not necessarily for the I mean they're
- 43:35Speaker 1: solid for dfs, but uh, I think there, Yeah, you
- 43:38Speaker 1: have a two star, four star, three star, five star.
- 43:40Speaker 1: This one should be a pretty fun on the feet.
- 43:43Speaker 1: Michael Johnson and Drew Dover the closest priced fight on
- 43:47Speaker 1: the car, the closest line fight. Michael Johnson minus one
- 43:50Speaker 1: twenty two Drew Dover plus one oh two minus two
- 43:53Speaker 1: hundred For this fight to finish, we have the underdog
- 43:56Speaker 1: in Dover plus one forty five inside the distance Johnson
- 43:58Speaker 1: plus two to zh five. Michael Johnson opened minus won
- 44:02Speaker 1: eighty five and Dover took quite a bit of money.
- 44:05Speaker 1: Now minus one twenty two plus one h two yeah
- 44:09Speaker 1: you have. This is a three star, and I've really
- 44:10Speaker 1: been torn on this fight because it's minus two under
- 44:13Speaker 1: to finish, which is really good for a mid tier fight.
- 44:16Speaker 1: But there's no wrestling on either side, and both land
- 44:19Speaker 1: less than five significant strikes per minute. So if this
- 44:21Speaker 1: fight gets to the third round, it's hard to see
- 44:23Speaker 1: it probably being optimal. It feels like you do need
- 44:26Speaker 1: a first or second round knockout in this one under
- 44:29Speaker 1: one and a half plus one seventy under two and
- 44:32Speaker 1: a half minus won thirty six on fan duels what
- 44:35Speaker 1: I'm seeing, So I don't know, do you think it
- 44:38Speaker 1: gets Do you think one of these guys go down
- 44:40Speaker 1: in the first or second round? I think is what
- 44:42Speaker 1: is the real question.
- 44:44Speaker 2: I think we're gonna get a three round striking match
- 44:46Speaker 2: with this one. I mean both of them dang near
- 44:48Speaker 2: forty years old. I mean the Dover style is go
- 44:53Speaker 2: out there, eat some big shots, but land the harder
- 44:56Speaker 2: ones and knock him out. But I just don't think
- 44:58Speaker 2: that he's gonna be continuous doing that towards the end
- 45:01Speaker 2: of his career. I feel like this is gonna be
- 45:03Speaker 2: almost like a gentleman's technical striking match for fifteen minutes
- 45:07Speaker 2: where Dover is going to be the power side, but
- 45:10Speaker 2: Johnson's gonna be the speed side, and I just think
- 45:12Speaker 2: it's gonna be really close volume wise. In general, either
- 45:15Speaker 2: one of them could land like I take down, but
- 45:18Speaker 2: I think it's gonna be fifteen minutes of striking. If
- 45:20Speaker 2: we don't get a knockout, we're not going to get
- 45:22Speaker 2: a decent score in this one. So I think I
- 45:24Speaker 2: moved it too a two star. That's kind of how
- 45:26Speaker 2: I feel about it, But the minus two hundred is
- 45:28Speaker 2: really what I have it as a three star still
- 45:31Speaker 2: because of that, mine is two hundred. But I might
- 45:34Speaker 2: just bet the over, to be honest with you, and
- 45:37Speaker 2: then move this to a two star because I don't
- 45:40Speaker 2: really want to play both sides of this fight. So
- 45:44Speaker 2: I do have a preferred play in this one. I'd
- 45:45Speaker 2: just rather save the two hundred dollars also make lineups
- 45:48Speaker 2: I can't make with Johnson and go dover or pass,
- 45:52Speaker 2: especially with limited lineups. If I'm making one hundred and fifty, sure,
- 45:55Speaker 2: I'll take some of both sides, but i'd ideally be
- 45:57Speaker 2: underweight to both of them. With twenty or less, I
- 46:00Speaker 2: feel like I'll be around or under the field on Dover,
- 46:04Speaker 2: and then I just won't have any Johnson.
- 46:06Speaker 1: I'm I'm gonna play some because his minus two hundred.
- 46:10Speaker 1: I kind of them in the same camp as you, though,
- 46:12Speaker 1: as like these guys aren't gonna wrestle like they have
- 46:14Speaker 1: to crack each other's chin, which both can be cracked.
- 46:17Speaker 1: Both have been knocked out. Dover went from having a
- 46:19Speaker 1: phenomenal chin, and once that thing gets cracked, it definitely
- 46:22Speaker 1: gets worse. So I'm gonna play both sides, but Dover's
- 46:24Speaker 1: by for sure my preferred side for the two reasons
- 46:27Speaker 1: you said he's two hundred less. Build any Michael Johnson team.
- 46:30Speaker 1: Take Johnson out play Dover. That's one way to leave
- 46:33Speaker 1: money very easily without giving up any upside. And I
- 46:36Speaker 1: mean you argue Dobra has more upside. Look at the
- 46:38Speaker 1: inside of the distance prop plus one forty five versus
- 46:41Speaker 1: plus two to h five. Give me the cheaper guy
- 46:43Speaker 1: with the better inside the distance prop. He's my preferred
- 46:46Speaker 1: side for sure, but.
- 46:47Speaker 2: I think he definitely has more upside. I think Johnson's
- 46:50Speaker 2: scored like one hundred points like once or twice in
- 46:53Speaker 2: the last decade. Uh, he is a guy hands, he's
- 46:56Speaker 2: a good fighter. He could crack Dover's weak chin, but
- 46:58Speaker 2: he's not a high high scorer on DraftKings. He never
- 47:01Speaker 2: has been.
- 47:02Speaker 1: Yeah, for sure, I like if he does, though, it's
- 47:05Speaker 1: I mean South Paul versus orthodox Johnson. The left hand
- 47:09Speaker 1: will be there and Dover's chin can get cracked. But
- 47:12Speaker 1: if if neither of these chins go, it's gonna it's
- 47:14Speaker 1: gonna completely bust for uh for DFS. And that's why
- 47:18Speaker 1: I most definitely prefer Tom and Dirden right in the
- 47:21Speaker 1: mid tier. They're both minus two hundred to finish, but
- 47:24Speaker 1: I definitely prefer that. I do prefer Johnson Dober over
- 47:27Speaker 1: the Guardbrant fight. Man, what do you prefer the mantas
- 47:32Speaker 1: Tertios fight or the Johnson Dover fighters?
- 47:39Speaker 2: Is my favorite of the fours, I'd say him, and
- 47:42Speaker 2: I prefer Dover over Montes.
- 47:46Speaker 1: Okay, I prefer the Johnson Dover fight if having to choose,
- 47:49Speaker 1: but I'm not too too confident in that answer. All right,
- 47:53Speaker 1: we'll keep it rolling. Three fights left. Really excited to
- 47:56Speaker 1: get your take on this one. I mean, you can't
- 47:59Speaker 1: drop more of a or clash of styles. The wrestler
- 48:02Speaker 1: and grappler rob rule Roshaus Junior minus two forty five
- 48:05Speaker 1: ticket on the striker and Rob Font plus two ten
- 48:08Speaker 1: most likely fights go the distance on the card at
- 48:11Speaker 1: minus two thirty Rosaus Junior plus two fifty five inside
- 48:15Speaker 1: the distance, Font plus five seventy five the four as
- 48:18Speaker 1: your as. I am all ears because this is one
- 48:20Speaker 1: of the hardest ones for me to break down for
- 48:22Speaker 1: DFS and real life for that matter.
- 48:25Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's just gonna be one way where
- 48:29Speaker 2: however the fight takes place, It's either gonna be Roases
- 48:31Speaker 2: dominating on the ground or it's gonna be Font dominating
- 48:34Speaker 2: on the feet. My worry though, is that it's early
- 48:38Speaker 2: Roses and then late Font, and we just don't get
- 48:40Speaker 2: a big score because of it being that way, and
- 48:43Speaker 2: it goes to the decision. But I do kind of
- 48:47Speaker 2: see it being Roses lands his takedowns early and then
- 48:50Speaker 2: Font just kind of finds his game and then puts
- 48:53Speaker 2: a veteran lesson on this little kid and really pieces
- 48:57Speaker 2: him up on the feet and gets a late second
- 49:00Speaker 2: third round knockout puts up a big time score. So
- 49:03Speaker 2: I have Fought as my preferred play because I'm picking
- 49:05Speaker 2: him to win. I have more faith than him. He's
- 49:07Speaker 2: fought the better competition, beat the better competition. He's gonna
- 49:11Speaker 2: have a huge striking edge, but he is if he's
- 49:16Speaker 2: on his back, he's gonna get completely dominated. He might
- 49:18Speaker 2: not be able to get up, and Roses could choke
- 49:20Speaker 2: him out in that first round. So eighty seven hundred.
- 49:23Speaker 2: There's a lot to like on that Rosa's side too.
- 49:26Speaker 2: This is closer to a five star than it is
- 49:28Speaker 2: a three star for me, But I have it right
- 49:30Speaker 2: there as a four star because of that worry being
- 49:33Speaker 2: early Rosas and then fought just doesn't score enough because
- 49:37Speaker 2: he or or vice versa. Roses does like a first
- 49:42Speaker 2: and second round wrestling clinic, and then he can't do
- 49:44Speaker 2: anything in the third and he doesn't score because of
- 49:47Speaker 2: it that way, But just you know, switching off rounds.
- 49:50Speaker 2: I'm worried about that.
- 49:51Speaker 1: I'm really worried about that, and that's why I mean,
- 49:54Speaker 1: that's kind of why I'm so torn. Also because this
- 49:57Speaker 1: fight again Monday. You see this plus one twenty to finish.
- 50:00Speaker 1: Now on Thursday, it's plus one ninety to finish, Like
- 50:04Speaker 1: that's seventy cents on the over. That is a lot
- 50:07Speaker 1: of money. Eighty seven hundred, Max Holloway's eighty eight hundred,
- 50:10Speaker 1: Gregor Rodriguez is eighty six hundred ninety might not be
- 50:14Speaker 1: enough from Rosas. Probably won't be enough if that's what
- 50:16Speaker 1: he gets. So that's concerning that way. And then yeah
- 50:19Speaker 1: for Rob Font on the sneeze, no, I'm not, oh man,
- 50:23Speaker 1: my allergies are kicking my butt over here. And then
- 50:26Speaker 1: for Rob Font, like Rosas is good early, so like, yeah,
- 50:29Speaker 1: what if he takes him down, controls him and all that,
- 50:31Speaker 1: but Fonts grappling defense is solid, takedown defense isn't great.
- 50:36Speaker 1: And then round two, yeah, he does a little bit,
- 50:39Speaker 1: and then Rosas gets a takedown, controls and he wins.
- 50:41Speaker 1: Round three. I'm really worried that it's kind of the
- 50:43Speaker 1: teeter tottering back and forth and the most likely fights
- 50:46Speaker 1: go the distance. Has taken a lot of money. I'm
- 50:49Speaker 1: indifferent to this fight, Like this is kind of one
- 50:52Speaker 1: where like maybe I'll just be around the field. Maybe
- 50:54Speaker 1: I'm underweight. I definitely will not be like too overweight
- 50:56Speaker 1: on this fight around the field, so it doesn't kill me.
- 50:59Speaker 1: I'm fine with if I'm underweight on both, I'm fine
- 51:02Speaker 1: with that as well. The line is a little surprising
- 51:05Speaker 1: to me, Like that's a lot of respect on the
- 51:07Speaker 1: for a twenty one year old Rosas who's clearly at
- 51:09Speaker 1: a striking disadvantage. I mean this is on the feet.
- 51:12Speaker 1: Rob Font jab all day will be there in the
- 51:14Speaker 1: right hand over the top. So yeah, if I had
- 51:19Speaker 1: to bet it, it's Rob Font for DFS super super
- 51:21Speaker 1: torn underweight or even with the feel that best is
- 51:25Speaker 1: how I have it all right. Two fights left Co Maine,
- 51:29Speaker 1: event time. Kyle Ohio minus two fifty taking on Renee
- 51:32Speaker 1: the Rider plus two to ten plus one thirty five
- 51:35Speaker 1: for this fight to finish, Kyo plus two hundred inside
- 51:37Speaker 1: the distance the rittor plus five hundred. I'm gonna throw
- 51:40Speaker 1: it to you and bow my nose real quick.
- 51:43Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I really don't have a whole lot
- 51:45Speaker 2: to say about this fight. I think it's gonna be
- 51:46Speaker 2: a technical fight wherever it takes place. Both guys are
- 51:50Speaker 2: well rounded, but neither one of them are gonna put
- 51:53Speaker 2: up a high work rate where they're gonna land, you know,
- 51:55Speaker 2: six plus takedowns on this fight or land one hundred
- 51:58Speaker 2: and fifty strikes. It's just gonna be I think a
- 52:01Speaker 2: fairly close fight. Back and forth, where Barrajo is the
- 52:05Speaker 2: better uh, the better fighter, and the one who can
- 52:08Speaker 2: dictate where the fight takes place. I also think he's
- 52:11Speaker 2: probably the more dangerous striker. Maybe Ridder is the more
- 52:14Speaker 2: dangerous grappler. I think this one's gonna go all fifteen
- 52:18Speaker 2: minutes and we're just not gonna have enough points from
- 52:20Speaker 2: the winner. Maybe I have it as a three to
- 52:24Speaker 2: three because I really don't have a preference in this fight,
- 52:26Speaker 2: and I don't think I'm gonna use it very much.
- 52:28Speaker 2: But at seven k I do think that Ridder has
- 52:31Speaker 2: an easier time making the optimal lineup than Burrajo does
- 52:34Speaker 2: at ninety two hundred, So I might switch it to
- 52:37Speaker 2: a two star Barralljo four star Ridder, but I'm picking
- 52:42Speaker 2: Burrojo to win, so it's probably three star each and
- 52:45Speaker 2: I just won't play much.
- 52:47Speaker 1: Yeah, I'd probably have this fight as a two star
- 52:50Speaker 1: and then a like you have it, and then a
- 52:51Speaker 1: four star Ridder two star Kyo, And that's because he's
- 52:55Speaker 1: twenty two hundred dollars cheaper. If the ritter wins, I
- 52:58Speaker 1: mean he's probably gonna score to a extent, because if
- 53:00Speaker 1: he wins, that means he's probably ending up on top
- 53:03Speaker 1: and winning some wrestling exchanges or like his pressure on
- 53:06Speaker 1: the feet and the knees and stuff. But it's hard
- 53:08Speaker 1: for me to see that Kyle's the more technical striker,
- 53:10Speaker 1: the better striker. Kyle's a very good wrestler, good takedown defense,
- 53:14Speaker 1: solid grappling. It's hard to see. I mean, Brendan Allen
- 53:18Speaker 1: really might have ruined De Ritter at the end of
- 53:19Speaker 1: the day like the Ridder had round one, and he
- 53:23Speaker 1: was on such a streak in the UFC beating bo
- 53:25Speaker 1: Nickel Whittaker like four to no. But man was he
- 53:29Speaker 1: exposed for being a very very bad nail. Like Brendan
- 53:33Speaker 1: Allen just pat myself on the back. Don't always get
- 53:37Speaker 1: stuff right. Fluffy over Strickland couldn't have got that more wrong.
- 53:39Speaker 1: But yeah, Brendan Allen as a dog was one of
- 53:42Speaker 1: the most easy money, especially live betting too. Like De
- 53:46Speaker 1: Ritter had nothing completely broken like quit after round four,
- 53:49Speaker 1: just kept laying on the canvas. It's hard to bounce
- 53:52Speaker 1: back after that. And Kyo is not an easy fight
- 53:55Speaker 1: to come back to, so I think Kyo probably wins
- 53:58Speaker 1: a decision or a late fit. But ninety two hundred
- 54:01Speaker 1: he's competing with so many high upside plays that I
- 54:04Speaker 1: don't see myself getting much of him at all. And
- 54:06Speaker 1: I like plenty of other underdogs more than to Ritder,
- 54:08Speaker 1: since I think they're more live to win, so I
- 54:10Speaker 1: won't have too much of this fight. Personally, I do
- 54:13Speaker 1: prefer Ridder, though, because if he wins, I mean, seventy
- 54:16Speaker 1: eight could be enough, whereas seventy eight clearly is not
- 54:19Speaker 1: enough on the Coyo side. At ninety two hundred, all right,
- 54:24Speaker 1: last fights, main event can't get any better than this.
- 54:28Speaker 1: Max Holloway minus two oh five Charles Olivera plus one
- 54:32Speaker 1: seventy five minus two fifty for this fight to finish,
- 54:35Speaker 1: Holloway plus one oh five inside the distance Charles Olivera
- 54:38Speaker 1: plus two thirty five. You want to go first? You
- 54:42Speaker 1: want me to go first?
- 54:45Speaker 2: I mean you go ahead, You go ahead.
- 54:48Speaker 1: I think the line is a little wide, and if
- 54:52Speaker 1: I had to bet, I would definitely be on the
- 54:53Speaker 1: Olivera side. Now, with that being said, I wrote this
- 54:56Speaker 1: up when it was minus two to twenty five plus
- 55:00Speaker 1: and the line has came back twenty cents. Olivera has
- 55:03Speaker 1: taken some money. The reason for that is, I mean,
- 55:07Speaker 1: at the end of the day when Iliot, when your
- 55:09Speaker 1: chin goes, it goes now. Max has been known for
- 55:11Speaker 1: a great chin. Ilia absolutely slept him. Though Max's ben hurt.
- 55:16Speaker 1: Charles Olivera known as one of the best omission grapplers.
- 55:19Speaker 1: There's no doubt about that. If he gets back to
- 55:21Speaker 1: the ground, I mean, Max very well is gonna be
- 55:23Speaker 1: in trouble. Charles floats on the mat, very dangerous, dangerous,
- 55:26Speaker 1: can lock something up. I think he's more live on
- 55:29Speaker 1: the feet than others, though not for being a minute winner,
- 55:32Speaker 1: but his knees, his right hook, the dude has power.
- 55:36Speaker 1: He is very dangerous on the feet. He'll walk forward
- 55:38Speaker 1: and can deliver bombs. The light kick is always money
- 55:41Speaker 1: for Olivera. Holloway's legs can be beaten up, as we
- 55:44Speaker 1: saw in the Volkanovski fight. So if I'm getting the
- 55:48Speaker 1: fighter as good as Charles Olivera at plus one ninety
- 55:51Speaker 1: now plus one seventy five, with the clear advantage on
- 55:54Speaker 1: the ground, and then to add he's fourteen hundred dollars
- 55:56Speaker 1: cheaper on DraftKings, I'm on the Charles Olivera side. If
- 56:00Speaker 1: having to pick. With that being said, how is by
- 56:03Speaker 1: far the minute Winter on the feet, He's looked phenomenal
- 56:05Speaker 1: as of light. He filled out good for one fifty five.
- 56:09Speaker 1: But how I'm going to wrap it up, and I'm
- 56:11Speaker 1: really really curious to hear your take on this. I'm
- 56:14Speaker 1: not going to make a rule to lock this fight,
- 56:16Speaker 1: because I do think there's a path where maybe Holloway
- 56:19Speaker 1: a second or third round, KO scores in the nineties
- 56:23Speaker 1: and you take in the nineties. But when this fight's
- 56:25Speaker 1: gonna be like ninety four percent owned combined, like the
- 56:29Speaker 1: fight feeds could work. The Tomb fight could outscore the
- 56:32Speaker 1: Gregor Rodriguez fight, could outscore Luke Fernandez fight Tobias. I
- 56:38Speaker 1: guess those are the main ones that are all kind
- 56:40Speaker 1: of in the similar price range. But that's a handful
- 56:43Speaker 1: of ones right there. And if this fight's not optimal
- 56:45Speaker 1: in the main event, we just saw Charles Oliver's last
- 56:48Speaker 1: fight is the favorite against Scamra ninety two points not optimal.
- 56:51Speaker 1: You had a great call saying that that could not
- 56:54Speaker 1: be optimal. And if that's the case, you're looking at
- 56:56Speaker 1: a solo shipper or a lot better chance to do that.
- 56:59Speaker 1: So if I have one hundred percent, I'm obviously gonna
- 57:02Speaker 1: do it. I'm fine with it, but I'm not gonna
- 57:04Speaker 1: make a rule because I do think if only Era wins,
- 57:07Speaker 1: he's almost surely optimal. But I do think there's pass
- 57:09Speaker 1: where Holloway wins and and he scores less than one hundred,
- 57:13Speaker 1: and it might not get there. So, yeah, could you
- 57:15Speaker 1: start talking about that point? And then yeah, I want
- 57:17Speaker 1: to hear your take on this fight. What a what
- 57:19Speaker 1: a great fight.
- 57:21Speaker 2: Yeah, I think if I make twenty or less lineups,
- 57:24Speaker 2: I'm sure I'll be all in on a I probably
- 57:28Speaker 2: would even make a rule to be all in on it.
- 57:30Speaker 2: But even with one fifty, I wouldn't make a rule
- 57:33Speaker 2: because I'd be I think we could get like Roses Rodriguez, Johnson, Tobias,
- 57:40Speaker 2: any three of those guys, Fernandez too, really really, any
- 57:43Speaker 2: of them could just end up scoring one hundred and
- 57:46Speaker 2: ten points and Max puts up one hundred and six
- 57:49Speaker 2: and doesn't get there.
- 57:50Speaker 1: But I just think that it's gonna be.
- 57:53Speaker 2: I mean, Max is the highest volume striker I've ever seen,
- 57:56Speaker 2: the best boxer I've ever seen in the UFC. I
- 57:59Speaker 2: think he is going to have a clear minute winning
- 58:02Speaker 2: advantage if this fight is on the feet. But I've
- 58:05Speaker 2: never picked against Oliver I've lost many times because I've
- 58:09Speaker 2: never picked against him, But Olive Air is my guy.
- 58:11Speaker 2: I love his style, I love his entire game, and
- 58:15Speaker 2: I do think, yeah, he could have moments on the
- 58:16Speaker 2: feet against Halloway. For sure, he could knock out Halloway,
- 58:19Speaker 2: but he could dominate Holloway on the ground if he's
- 58:22Speaker 2: out there not really interested in striking with Halloway and
- 58:25Speaker 2: each wants to go for takedowns early. I mean, he
- 58:27Speaker 2: could look like a minus four hundred favorite, I think
- 58:29Speaker 2: in this fight. So I haven't bet it yet, I'm
- 58:32Speaker 2: sure I will, but I'm gonna definitely be overweight ten lineups.
- 58:37Speaker 2: If I made ten lineups, I'm probably just all inning
- 58:40Speaker 2: Olive Era just as like a two hundred and fifty
- 58:44Speaker 2: dollars bet type of deal. But I have a feeling
- 58:48Speaker 2: I'll be closer to twenty, and I would imagine I
- 58:51Speaker 2: get fifteen close to fifteen Olive Air, and then the
- 58:55Speaker 2: other five will be on the Holloway side, because I
- 58:58Speaker 2: think the winner will be on the optamal line of
- 59:00Speaker 2: We're gonna get a big score for either one of them,
- 59:02Speaker 2: and it could be Halloway should have looked like a
- 59:05Speaker 2: minus four hundred favorite two. If OLIVERA can't get a takedown,
- 59:08Speaker 2: I think OLIVERA could have first and second round success
- 59:12Speaker 2: on the feet. But the longer this goes, if the
- 59:14Speaker 2: takedowns aren't there, Halloway is just gonna really start to
- 59:17Speaker 2: run away with it, probably put them away at some point.
- 59:20Speaker 2: So I think we're gonna get a big score, We're
- 59:22Speaker 2: gonna have a fun fight, and we're gonna have a
- 59:23Speaker 2: BMF holding that belt at the end of it. So
- 59:26Speaker 2: I'm looking forward to it. But yeah, go Go Do Bronx.
- 59:29Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm definitely cheering Ford Bronx too, But how do
- 59:32Speaker 1: you I mean, I love both of them. I mean
- 59:34Speaker 1: you're if you're a fight fan, you better have this
- 59:36Speaker 1: fight on your TV when it's when it's when it's
- 59:39Speaker 1: going on, it's impossible not to be fun.
- 59:42Speaker 2: Oliver is one of my favorite all time fighters, but
- 59:45Speaker 2: Holloway knocking out Gachi is the coolest thing I've ever
- 59:47Speaker 2: seen and our top three coolest things I've ever seen
- 59:50Speaker 2: in MM.
- 59:51Speaker 1: The definition of BMF if you're beating his ass for
- 59:53Speaker 1: twenty four minutes and for twenty four minutes and fifty
- 59:57Speaker 1: eight seconds, or fifty seconds and you're still point into
- 1:00:00Speaker 1: the mat giving him adjusting aagent.
- 1:00:03Speaker 2: I lost money on that, but I was still like,
- 1:00:05Speaker 2: oh my, I was so amazed. That was the coolest
- 1:00:07Speaker 2: thing ever.
- 1:00:08Speaker 1: Yeah. Absolutely, Max plus Holloway a freaking legend. Charles dubronx
- 1:00:11Speaker 1: Olivera also a legend. Can't wait for that one? Or man,
- 1:00:15Speaker 1: why said he said before we head out a bold
- 1:00:17Speaker 1: matchup for the White House. I've really looked into it
- 1:00:20Speaker 1: or thought about it too too much. I heard rumors
- 1:00:22Speaker 1: what it's a maybe a John Jones Alex Pereira, but
- 1:00:26Speaker 1: then Aspinall said he might be back in business or something.
- 1:00:30Speaker 1: If that's the case. I mean, John Jones is the
- 1:00:32Speaker 1: biggest woss and I'm saying that because all right, of
- 1:00:35Speaker 1: course I'll fight Alex Pereira. Dude can take him down
- 1:00:37Speaker 1: and dominate him. It's time to retire when it's tom
- 1:00:41Speaker 1: asmen all season and again, now that he saw what
- 1:00:43Speaker 1: Tom Aspinall against Cyril Gone, maybe he has second thoughts.
- 1:00:47Speaker 1: But when Tom Aspinall was on top of the world,
- 1:00:51Speaker 1: John Jones didn't want any of that smoke. But I mean, yeah,
- 1:00:53Speaker 1: you can argue he's to go for sure. He's getting
- 1:00:56Speaker 1: up there in age not ruined the legacy. That's my
- 1:00:59Speaker 1: thoughts though, But Habib's always my go he left too early,
- 1:01:03Speaker 1: but yeah, my story earlier, that dude was just different
- 1:01:06Speaker 1: in the octagon. I don't have any other hot takes
- 1:01:08Speaker 1: on im the matchup, so I have no clue what
- 1:01:11Speaker 1: what's gonna go on anything for you.
- 1:01:13Speaker 2: On that nothing at all. I mean, the only like
- 1:01:17Speaker 2: real stars that they have would be Connor McGregor and
- 1:01:20Speaker 2: John Jones that would get casuals to for sure tune in,
- 1:01:26Speaker 2: because if you get like you know, Tom aspinall will say,
- 1:01:30Speaker 2: I mean, that's that's sick for all all of us
- 1:01:32Speaker 2: MMA fans. But your buddy, I like your neighbor down
- 1:01:35Speaker 2: the street's not gonna go and tune into that. Same
- 1:01:38Speaker 2: with like an Iliot to Poria, who I would want
- 1:01:40Speaker 2: to see on there, but just the random person doesn't
- 1:01:43Speaker 2: even know who Iliot to Poria is.
- 1:01:45Speaker 1: So if you're over, if you're in Europe, if you're
- 1:01:49Speaker 1: in Europe, everyone's knowing Ilia for sure.
- 1:01:51Speaker 2: In the US, but this is the White House, so
- 1:01:53Speaker 2: they're worried about America. Sure, but I would say John
- 1:01:57Speaker 2: Jones is gonna be there if it's not him, or
- 1:01:59Speaker 2: Connor McGregor. That's a real only chance to get new
- 1:02:02Speaker 2: eyes on the sport. I mean, other than just seeing
- 1:02:05Speaker 2: the White House in the background, I have no extra
- 1:02:07Speaker 2: interest in that fight. I mean that card. To be
- 1:02:09Speaker 2: honest with you, I just hold them that they ended
- 1:02:12Speaker 2: up doing something fun with it, because I feel like
- 1:02:15Speaker 2: they've hyped it up enough. You can't just give us
- 1:02:17Speaker 2: some decent main event at this point.
- 1:02:20Speaker 1: Yeah, I heard it might be only like eight fights,
- 1:02:22Speaker 1: and if that's the case, that's so brutal. I mean
- 1:02:24Speaker 1: that we played DFS.
- 1:02:26Speaker 2: Like play with eight fights.
- 1:02:31Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it's eight fights is almost impossible to
- 1:02:34Speaker 1: play for DFS. But I would love to see Connor McGregor.
- 1:02:37Speaker 1: I mean, if you if Connor is back, I mean,
- 1:02:39Speaker 1: all eyes are on Connor, and I assume Dana. Yeah,
- 1:02:42Speaker 1: maybe the more you think about it, Dana really wants
- 1:02:46Speaker 1: Connor there because he's gonna put so much money in
- 1:02:48Speaker 1: his White House card. Any fight card Connor is on
- 1:02:51Speaker 1: his comeback would be legendary. So yeah, maybe I'm excited
- 1:02:56Speaker 1: to see, but that's gonna do it for us our
- 1:03:00Speaker 1: I'll pull over an hour talking UFC three twenty six
- 1:03:02Speaker 1: team over Arena five Eastern start time. I'm pumped forwards again.
- 1:03:06Speaker 1: All of our content we'll be up at shippanation dot
- 1:03:08Speaker 1: com tomorrow, projections, ownership, s late plan, fight rankings, this
- 1:03:12Speaker 1: will the stone will be all color coded and filled
- 1:03:16Speaker 1: outs tagged in. The discord can get in for the
- 1:03:18Speaker 1: day for nine bucks gets you Sabersim, five days for
- 1:03:21Speaker 1: nineteen dollars gets you sabor Sim and the discord. And
- 1:03:25Speaker 1: there is MMA only packages as well that you can
- 1:03:28Speaker 1: find that's gonna do it for us. Good luck, everybody,
- 1:03:30Speaker 1: enjoy your weekend for Big Marley. I'm titledent be safe
- 1:04:01Speaker 2: The last An then mister ned An, mister