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Norway's Wealth Exodus Is Worse Than You Think · IMI Podcasts

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: Every debate about taxing the rich ends the same way.
• 0:04
  SPEAKER_00: One side says the billionaires should pay more.
• 0:07
  SPEAKER_00: The other side says if you try, they'll simply leave and take their companies, their jobs, and their taxes with them.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_00: And that's where it all stalls, because nobody can prove what actually happens next.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: Except one country ran the experiment, for real, at full speed, on its own billionaires.
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_00: It raised its wealth tax to among the highest levels in the West, in a nation whose rich had almost never fled.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_00: You may have guessed by now, it's Norway.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_00: And on September 12, 2022, the experiment produced its first result, in the form of a letter from one of the country's wealthiest citizens and the single most heavily taxed person, saying he was done living in Norway.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_00: But before we get into that, we need to explain what a wealth tax actually is, because it's not what most people think.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_00: Most taxes hit money as it moves.
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_00: You earn a salary, you pay income tax, you sell shares, you pay capital gains tax.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_00: A wealth tax is different.
• 1:15
  SPEAKER_00: It taxes money that's just sitting there.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_00: Shares, property, boats, cash.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_00: Every year the state totals up everything you own, subtracts your debts, and takes a small slice of the whole pile, usually around 1%.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_00: The idea is ancient.
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_00: States were taxing property and fortunes centuries before anyone invented income tax.
• 1:39
  SPEAKER_00: And the modern version arrived in the 1980s.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_00: The Netherlands passed the first permanent national one in 1892, and Norway's dates to the very same year.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_00: Which means Norway's wealth tax is over a decade older than Norway's own independence in 1905.
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_00: It has survived two world wars, a German occupation, and is still mostly in effect today.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_00: The logic behind it, and most wealth taxes, targets a very specific loophole.
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_00: If you're a billionaire, you don't really earn money the way most people do.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_00: Your fortune grows as your shares or business rise in value, and as long as you never sell, most tax systems can't touch it.
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_00: You can even borrow against those shares to fund your lifestyle, paying a lower effective tax rate than your own employees.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_00: A wealth tax is the bluntest possible answer to that.
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_00: Forget what you earn this year, you own it, you pay on it.
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_00: But enforcing that presented a whole new set of issues, which we'll come back to later.
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_00: Now, back to the letter.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_00: Its author, Shell Ingeroker, a Norwegian fisherman deckhand, who built an industrial empire and became the largest individual taxpayer in Norway.
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_00: Over 14 years he had paid the state roughly 1.5 billion krona.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_00: That's about$159 million.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_00: His 2022 letter announced in careful corporate language that he's going for the door.
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_00: A difficult choice has been made.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_00: I've moved from Asker, Norway, to Lugano in Switzerland.
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_00: Stories like this are everywhere right now, and they're incredibly polarising.
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_00: So today we're going to dig into all the research and data on wealth taxation to present a real picture of both sides of the argument.
• 3:38
  SPEAKER_00: When Norway finished building one of the world's most restrictive wealth taxation programs, did the rich actually leave?
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_00: Did the tax raise money, or is it slowly damaging the economy?
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_00: And importantly, who loses the most when the rich are gone?
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_00: Starting with the first question, the answer is yes, they left faster than anyone predicted.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_00: In 2022 alone, more than 30 Norwegian billionaires and multimillionaires moved abroad, more than in the previous 13 years combined.
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_00: Raka to Lugano, real estate investor Todd Kolstad to Lucerne, tech founder Frederik Hagatazug.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_00: By 2024, roughly 300 wealthy Norwegians had relocated to Switzerland, enough to form Norwegian expact circles in the lakeside towns of Tychino.
• 4:33
  SPEAKER_00: And today, according to the business magazine Capitals Ranking, 105 of Norway's 400 richest people now live abroad, or have handed their fortunes to relatives who do.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_00: One professor's tally put the wealth of the 2022 waiver loan at some 600 billion krona, roughly$55 billion, on the order of 10% of Norway's GDP.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_00: Economists studied Scandinavia's wealth taxes for years and kept finding the same thing.
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_00: The definitive study by Katrine Jakobsen, Henrique Cleaven, and colleagues, using decades of Danish and Swedish tax records, found that raising the top wealth tax by a full percentage point shrinks the population of wealthy taxpayers by only about 2%.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_00: In a typical year, more than 99% stay put.
• 5:28
  SPEAKER_00: The Veil or Flea story was, according to the best data anyone had, mostly a myth.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_00: So if most of the rich never run, what was different in Norway?
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_00: To answer that, you need to look at the insane tax bill Norway actually handed them.
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_00: In September 2011, Norwegian voters ended eight years of Conservative rule and swung left.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_00: The Labour Party took power on an explicit promise: shift the tax burden off everyday Norwegians and onto those, in their words, with the broadest shoulders.
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_00: Their argument was straightforward.
• 6:06
  SPEAKER_00: Norway had abolished its inheritance tax in 2014, and capital gains weren't taxed until shares are sold.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_00: So without a wealth tax, a billionaire whose fortune simply appreciates could legally pay almost nothing.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_00: Forever.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_00: While a nurse pays tax on every paycheck.
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_00: The wealth tax in the government's framing was the last guarantee that the richest contribute something every year.
• 6:33
  SPEAKER_00: And the Conservatives over eight years had tried to reverse it in all but name.
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_00: Not by cutting the headline rate, but through a growing valuation discount on shares.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_00: Here's how that discount works, because it's the key to this entire story.
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_00: Say you own a company worth 1 billion krona.
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_00: Under the old rules, in 2021 the taxman didn't count the full billion.
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_00: He applied a 45% discount.
• 7:01
  SPEAKER_00: So only$550 million of your company existed for wealth tax purposes.
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_00: At the old rate of 0.85%, your annual bill about 4.7 million krona.
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_00: Then came the Labour government slashing the discount to 20%, so 800 million now counts.
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_00: At the same time, the top rate rose to 1.1%, so a bigger share of your business is taxed at a higher rate.
• 7:31
  SPEAKER_00: The new tax bill for the same company became about 8.8 million krona, nearly double, and a new effective dividend tax of 37.8% landed on top.
• 7:44
  SPEAKER_00: But wait, notice what's actually being taxed here.
• 7:47
  SPEAKER_00: You're getting taxed on an assumed valuation of your company, but your company could be unprofitable.
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_00: You might never have sold a single share, and much of its value might only exist on paper.
• 7:58
  SPEAKER_00: The law doesn't care.
• 8:00
  SPEAKER_00: The bill arrives anyway, every year, forever.
• 8:04
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, company owners can borrow against their company's value to fund their lifestyles, but a loan doesn't pay a recurring tax bill.
• 8:13
  SPEAKER_00: Borrowing every single year against shares you can't sell just stacks debt on top of the tax.
• 8:19
  SPEAKER_00: Sooner or later, the money has to come from somewhere real.
• 8:23
  SPEAKER_00: So where does the money come from?
• 8:26
  SPEAKER_00: For many founders, from the company itself.
• 8:28
  SPEAKER_00: To earn 8.8 million krona after the 37.8% dividend tax, you have to pull roughly 14 million out of your firm.
• 8:38
  SPEAKER_00: And since the company pays 22% corporate tax before it can pay you anything, it has to generate around 18 million krona in profit, just so you can hand a whopping 9 million of it to the state.
• 8:52
  SPEAKER_00: Annually, whether the company had a good year or not.
• 8:56
  SPEAKER_00: One of the Norwegians who left, Todd Kohlstad, put it bluntly, saying, The system is designed so that it confiscates more than what you can produce.
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_00: The government insisted that taxing ownership rather than income isn't a bug is the entire point, because income is exactly what the very rich have learned not to have.
• 9:18
  SPEAKER_00: On that narrow point, the evidence is on their side.
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_00: Statistics Norway researchers found that once you count the profits piling up inside their companies, Norway's richest 1% were paying an average tax rate of about 22%, less than the 33% paid by the merely affluent just below them.
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_00: A 2024 study in the Nordic Tax Journal by Bieksund, Hoppland and Shelderup at the Norwegian School of Economics showed why.
• 9:48
  SPEAKER_00: That same valuation discount on unlisted shares cut the ultra-rich's wealth tax bills by nearly 80%.
• 9:57
  SPEAKER_00: In other words, before the hike, the tax was barely touching the ultra-rich it was aimed at.
• 10:03
  SPEAKER_00: That's what Labour wants to fix.
• 10:06
  SPEAKER_00: But here's what decades of research says happen when you tax ownership this hard.
• 10:12
  SPEAKER_00: People don't stop building wealth, they reshape it.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_00: When Spain brought back its wealth tax, a 2025 study in the Journal of Public Economics tracked every taxpayer in Catalonia and found their actual savings didn't fall at all.
• 10:28
  SPEAKER_00: Fell was taxable wealth, because owners restructured everything into exempt categories and legal loopholes, wiping out revenue worth nearly three years of the tax, a disastrous outcome by any measure.
• 10:42
  SPEAKER_00: In Switzerland, economists found that when a canton cuts its wealth tax by 1%, reported wealth jumps by over 40%.
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_00: The pattern is remarkably consistent.
• 10:54
  SPEAKER_00: An aggressive wealth tax doesn't primarily change how much the ultra-rich own.
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_00: It changes how they structure what they own, where they hold it, and at the end of the line, where they hold themselves.
• 11:07
  SPEAKER_00: Who foots the bill are mostly successful business owners and entrepreneurs who may have built valuable companies and are, on paper, richer than most Norwegians, but lack the liquidity to pay the tax nor the resources to relocate away from their businesses to avoid it.
• 11:24
  SPEAKER_00: Or worse, it can completely remove the incentive to create or expand businesses.
• 11:29
  SPEAKER_00: Which brings us to Frederik Hager, co-founder of Dune, one of Norway's first billion-dollar startups.
• 11:36
  SPEAKER_00: On paper, after his 2022 funding round, Hager was rich.
• 11:41
  SPEAKER_00: In reality, his salary was about$50,000 a year.
• 11:45
  SPEAKER_00: And no, that wasn't a tax dodge.
• 11:48
  SPEAKER_00: It's how startups work.
• 11:49
  SPEAKER_00: The$80 million Dune raised was investors' money, earmarked for engineers and growth in a company that wasn't yet profitable.
• 11:58
  SPEAKER_00: Hager's fortune was locked up in shares he couldn't freely sell, yet Norway's tax bill was calculated on the billion-dollar paper valuation.
• 12:06
  SPEAKER_00: A bill, as he later wrote in his essay, Why I Left Norway, many times larger than his entire after-tax income.
• 12:15
  SPEAKER_00: By his account, the only way to pay it was to sell pieces of his own company, year after year, shrinking his stake in the thing he'd built for gains that existed only on a spreadsheet.
• 12:26
  SPEAKER_00: And as if that wasn't enough, the government then added a deadline.
• 12:31
  SPEAKER_00: Norway has long had an exit tax.
• 12:34
  SPEAKER_00: Leave the country, and the state claims tax on the unrealized gains in your shares, as if you sold everything on your way out.
• 12:42
  SPEAKER_00: But there was a release valve.
• 12:59
  SPEAKER_00: Whatever you think of that policy, its immediate effect was predictable, because Norway had seen it before.
• 13:06
  SPEAKER_00: Back in 2004, the government announced a dividend tax two years in advance, and the ultra-rich responded by paying themselves record dividends before it arrived.
• 13:18
  SPEAKER_00: Whenever any government announces that a door is closing, they don't stop people leaving but start a countdown.
• 13:24
  SPEAKER_00: Anyone who had ever considered moving had every reason to move immediately.
• 13:30
  SPEAKER_00: And the richest of them did.
• 13:35
  SPEAKER_00: Increased taxes, the billionaires leave, the tax base collapses, Norway loses massively.
• 13:42
  SPEAKER_00: But Norway's own numbers say no.
• 13:45
  SPEAKER_00: Wealth tax revenue didn't fall, it nearly doubled, from about 18 billion kroner in 2021 to 29 billion by 2023 and an estimated 34 billion by 2025.
• 13:59
  SPEAKER_00: And when Norwegian public broadcaster NRK mapped every business owner who'd moved to Switzerland, 163 of them since 2020, it found they had accounted for just 2% of the country's wealth tax take.
• 14:14
  SPEAKER_00: The reason is that most who left are billionaires.
• 14:17
  SPEAKER_00: But as we explained a minute ago, the tax touched every Norwegian who is wealthy even on paper.
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_00: So while the 1% left, nearly 700,000 Norwegians with no exit option continued to pay.
• 14:32
  SPEAKER_00: About 1 in 8 people.
• 14:34
  SPEAKER_00: Higher rates on the hundreds of thousands who stayed swamped the hundreds who left.
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_00: And it's out there, beyond the Treasury, that the bill is being run up.
• 14:44
  SPEAKER_00: Princeton's Christine Blandhol confirmed it in Norway.
• 14:49
  SPEAKER_00: Revenues in the abandoned firms dropped about 12%, and 4 in 10 of the emigrants were business owners.
• 14:56
  SPEAKER_00: Even the owners who stay can end up bleeding their own firms.
• 15:00
  SPEAKER_00: Researchers at By Norwegian Business School found that because the tax is due, whether a company or not makes money, owners of cash-strapped firms pull out dividends to pay it, cutting investment, sales growth, and profits, and the damage lands hardest on small and mid-sized businesses, not the empires.
• 15:20
  SPEAKER_00: Some are waiting to find out.
• 15:22
  SPEAKER_00: Serial entrepreneur Jim Roger Nordley launched his newest companies and many high-skilled jobs in Lucerne instead of Norway.
• 15:32
  SPEAKER_00: Hugger put the end game in one line.
• 15:35
  SPEAKER_00: The next generation won't exit Norway, they'll leave even before starting their businesses.
• 15:41
  SPEAKER_00: The Treasury's ledger is verified and it's green.
• 15:44
  SPEAKER_00: The economy's ledger is written in companies that shrink, bleed, or are simply born somewhere else, and that's a loss nobody can audit.
• 15:53
  SPEAKER_00: So if the costs run this deep, why doesn't Norway just scrap the tax, as almost everyone else did?
• 16:00
  SPEAKER_00: In 1990, 12 Western countries taxed wealth like this.
• 16:04
  SPEAKER_00: Today, four are left.
• 16:06
  SPEAKER_00: The other eight walked away for a simple reason.
• 16:09
  SPEAKER_00: The rich kept finding legal ways around the tax until it cost more to run than it collected.
• 16:15
  SPEAKER_00: Norway can't simply walk away.
• 16:17
  SPEAKER_00: Its$2 trillion oil fund sits behind a strict 3% spending cap.
• 16:22
  SPEAKER_00: The inheritance tax is gone, and every citizen's tax return is public, searchable by your neighbours and your employees.
• 16:31
  SPEAKER_00: In Norway, paying isn't just revenue, it's a public act of belonging deeply ingrained in the culture.
• 16:38
  SPEAKER_00: So when the billionaires left, millions of Norwegians felt betrayed, and the billionaires, watching the rules change mid-game on fortunes built under the old ones, felt betrayed right back.
• 16:49
  SPEAKER_00: The tax was clearly not going anywhere, but neither were the departures, which left Norway with the question no democracy has answered.
• 16:58
  SPEAKER_00: How do you definitively keep the rich from leaving?
• 17:01
  SPEAKER_00: Legally, of course.
• 17:03
  SPEAKER_00: Norway's answer build what critics now call a financial Berlin Wall.
• 17:08
  SPEAKER_00: Under exit tax rules formalized in 2024, leaving the country triggers a 37.8% tax on your unrealised gains, calculated as if you'd sold everything the day before departure.
• 17:22
  SPEAKER_00: And it must actually be paid within 12 years, whether you ever sell or not.
• 17:31
  SPEAKER_00: Moving back to Norway within 12 years, shares intact, and the tax no longer applies.
• 17:37
  SPEAKER_00: Rocker has pledged over a third of his family holding company as collateral to the Norwegian state for his bill.
• 17:43
  SPEAKER_00: When reporters asked him, outside an Oslo courtroom in late 2025 whether he'd ever move home, his answer was one word.
• 17:52
  SPEAKER_00: Never.
• 17:53
  SPEAKER_00: Though it must be said he was lucky enough to leave before the 12-year rule, most others who didn't make it are now locked in.
• 18:02
  SPEAKER_00: But for a country bound by the European Economic Area Treaty, which guarantees free movement of people and capital, a war like this has a problem.
• 18:11
  SPEAKER_00: It may not be legal.
• 18:13
  SPEAKER_00: In October 2024, a serial tech entrepreneur named Dag Inger Ass filed a formal complaint against his own country with the EEA's watchdog in Brussels.
• 18:24
  SPEAKER_00: His situation is the whole story in miniature.
• 18:27
  SPEAKER_00: 35 million kroner of paper wealth in shares he cannot sell, and a 12 million kroner exit bill if he moves to Denmark to start a family with his Danish partner.
• 18:38
  SPEAKER_00: In his words, I'm sitting in a prison in Norway.
• 18:41
  SPEAKER_00: The complaint became case 93693.
• 18:46
  SPEAKER_00: Norway's most prominent tax litigator, Bettina Banon, who sat on the government's own tax commission, piled on with a legal opinion, arguing the rules violate not just the EEA Treaty, but Norway's own constitution.
• 19:00
  SPEAKER_00: In June 2025, the EU watchdog sent an official letter to Norway's finance ministry demanding answers to a list of pointed questions.
• 19:09
  SPEAKER_00: Deadline September 1st.
• 19:12
  SPEAKER_00: The government asked for an extension until after the election.
• 19:16
  SPEAKER_00: Labour won, and when Norway's real answer finally came in June 2026, it was a rebuttal to Brussels.
• 19:24
  SPEAKER_00: The government's own tax commission delivered its verdict.
• 19:27
  SPEAKER_00: The exit tax and 12-year rule stay.
• 19:31
  SPEAKER_00: Finance Minister called it an important and right principle, because in his words, if the tax can be postponed forever, there is effectively no tax at all.
• 19:41
  SPEAKER_00: Brussels asked Norway to reconsider the war.
• 19:44
  SPEAKER_00: Norway responded by fortifying it.
• 19:47
  SPEAKER_00: But here's why Oslo should be nervous.
• 19:50
  SPEAKER_00: European courts have mostly ruled against exit taxes before.
• 19:54
  SPEAKER_00: In 2004, the EU's top court struck down France's, precisely for taxing people on gains they hadn't realised before they'd sold a thing, just like Norway.
• 20:05
  SPEAKER_00: Two years later, it ruled that if you tax someone on the way out, collection must wait until they actually sell.
• 20:12
  SPEAKER_00: Norway's 12-year pay-up, regardless rule, is precisely the feature that logic condemns, and this watchdog has beaten Norway on this exact ground once before.
• 20:23
  SPEAKER_00: In 2010, it formally declared an earlier Norwegian exit tax in breach of the treaty, and Norway backed down.
• 20:31
  SPEAKER_00: For now, Brussels is still weighing Norway's position.
• 20:35
  SPEAKER_00: But if they're not satisfied, formal proceedings begin, and that road has only one destination.
• 20:42
  SPEAKER_00: The EFTA court, where the wall either stands or, if precedent holds, comes crumbling down.
• 20:50
  SPEAKER_00: One force could have ended it before the judges.
• 20:53
  SPEAKER_00: Norwegian voters.
• 20:55
  SPEAKER_00: In September 2025, the election became, in effect, a referendum on the wealth tax.
• 21:02
  SPEAKER_00: The billionaires had already started leaving.
• 21:04
  SPEAKER_00: The warnings were everywhere, but Labour won anyway.
• 21:08
  SPEAKER_00: The voters have spoken.
• 21:09
  SPEAKER_00: The judges, not yet.
• 21:12
  SPEAKER_00: So which side of the argument wins?
• 21:15
  SPEAKER_00: It's not that simple.
• 21:16
  SPEAKER_00: The right was, right, tax wealth hard enough, and the rich really do leave.
• 21:22
  SPEAKER_00: The left wasn't wrong either.
• 21:24
  SPEAKER_00: Not enough of them left to sink the Treasury.
• 21:27
  SPEAKER_00: But arguably the costliest aspect, the mindset shift, is no longer hypothetical.
• 21:33
  SPEAKER_00: The man suing Norway in Brussels says it plainly.
• 21:37
  SPEAKER_00: I know several people who considered starting companies in Norway but moved out instead.
• 21:42
  SPEAKER_00: At the country's biggest law firms and investment migration firms, relocation desks report inquiries surging with every new government budget.
• 21:51
  SPEAKER_00: The message a generation of potential entrepreneurs and business owners is receiving is simple.
• 21:57
  SPEAKER_00: If you have other options, don't build your wealth in Norway.
• 22:00
  SPEAKER_00: Nobody can put a number on that shift yet.
• 22:03
  SPEAKER_00: Which leaves every country that taxes wealth staring at Norway's fork.
• 22:08
  SPEAKER_00: Lower the toll or raise the wall.
• 22:11
  SPEAKER_00: Britain chose neither and is reportedly losing a millionaire out the open door every 45 minutes, but continues to create even more millionaires not burdened by an exit tax.
• 22:23
  SPEAKER_00: Norway raised the wall.
• 22:26
  SPEAKER_00: Now look at the two men standing on either side of it.
• 22:30
  SPEAKER_00: Shell Ingerucker, the biggest taxpayer in the country's history.
• 22:34
  SPEAKER_00: The man whose letter started all of this.
• 22:37
  SPEAKER_00: Left 10 weeks before the rules changed.
• 22:40
  SPEAKER_00: If he stays away until the fall of 2027, which he almost certainly will, his entire bill expires and he gets his collateral back.
• 22:49
  SPEAKER_00: And on the other side, Dag Inger Oss, the founder with paper wealth he can't sell and an exit bill he can't pay, remains in taxation limbo, never able to leave before pledging nearly 40% of gains he hasn't yet realized.
• 23:05
  SPEAKER_00: And so that's the final reading of Norway's experiment.
• 23:09
  SPEAKER_00: The Treasury got richer, the ultra-rich got out, and the people who actually build innovative new companies or products got stuck.
• 23:18
  SPEAKER_00: Whether the wall is allowed to stand, the judges in Oslo and Brussels may one day decide.
• 23:25
  SPEAKER_00: What it cost is unlikely to ever appear in a budget.
• 23:28
  SPEAKER_00: It gets counted a decade from now in the companies that never get founded here, the revenue never generated and the unicorns never built.
• 23:37
  SPEAKER_00: Today's entrepreneurs have more options on where to launch their business than any generation before.
• 23:44
  SPEAKER_00: The next rocker probably won't have to write a farewell letter.
• 23:48
  SPEAKER_00: The letter he writes will simply arrive postmarked from Dubai, Sug, or Milan.