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Transcript

Felix Prehn - BREAKING: Stocks Flip on *This* Day 📈 + Stock Market News 14 March 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this pre-market live stream, and today is a day that is insanely important.
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: Why is it important?
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Because Wall Street's selling at the fastest pace ever.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: You've got some really important key dates coming up, and what I actually want to do here in the next few minutes is teach you how the pros spot the market reversal.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: Not promising you're going to find the exact bottom of the market, but what's the pattern that actually tells you we're in a real reversal, and I'm therefore going to share my screen with you here so you can see exactly what we've got going on here.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Seven key things.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Why is Wall Street selling at the fastest rate ever?
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: That's obviously somewhat concerning.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: Is March 12th the market bottom?
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: And then I'll explain to you a little bit more about that.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: How do you spot that market reversal?
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: That's my proper teaching here today and where does the NASDAQ?
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: Where do tech stocks actually bounce off?
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: And then there is one news item, completely overlooked by the media that is the most important thing for investors this month.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: So you really want to understand that one.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: And then, as a bonus, I want to give you the real data that no one is talking about outside of a few bankers on Wall Street, and I used to be one of those.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: So I want to share that insight with you.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: To level the playing field, I'm, of course, joined by my chief, winston.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: Come on, come on, show your little face.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: There he is, where is he?
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: Where has he gone?
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: Here?
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: He is One sleepy golden retriever.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: He's done all the research and all the hard work.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: Let's get cracking, shall we?
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: If that sounds like something you want to understand, you know all the research that Winston's done here.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: Write Winston in the chat and we know that you're here and get our feline fiber failure fixed.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: Feline fiber failure fixed, scott.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: What are you talking about, scott?
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: That one's going above my head.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: You got to keep it simple with me.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: Now look at this.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: This is Wall Street selling.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: They have just sold faster than at any time in the last five years, except for when?
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: Well, except for the COVID crash.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: We're going to need a more colorful pen, aren't we?
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: Okay, lots of Winstons there.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: Okay, I'm loving that Winston is in charge right here.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: So what does that say to you?
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: Terrible, what do you think?
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: Do you think this is bad news or do you think this is good news?
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: Let me know in the chat.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: Just write bad news or good news in there, and I'll explain to you.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: We're going to come back to this in just a second because I want you to understand what's underneath this.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: So this chart actually makes sense to you Because on the surface it sounds pretty horrible right Now.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: If you are a.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: Well, if you believe in history rhymes, it typically does.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: There is a pattern to the market right, how it moves throughout the year.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: It doesn't go up in a straight line.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: Typically, march is a pretty bleak month, maybe not quite as bleak as this one, but it's pretty that Okay.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: Pretty bleak month.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: Maybe not quite as bleak as this one, but it's pretty that Okay.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: Some of you are not sure.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: Brian, I love you for admitting that, by the way, that you're not sure.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: That's the best answer you could possibly have given.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: Bad both, neither ready to buy again, sweet Okay.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: We're right now here.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: Typically, march 12th is the bottom of the market, at least during the last 20 years.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't pay too much attention to this.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: It's a nice chart and I think Bloomberg printed it all somebody, but not every year is the same.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: What happens out there in the real world does somewhat matter, like what Trump just said, or Ukraine.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: There's a lot of things happening there Apple and so on that I want to touch upon in a moment.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: So these charts they give you some indication of what's generally the pattern.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: So March usually isn't very good.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: We know that September, october, usually isn't very good, especially before big elections, which is why it looks a little bit like that too.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: And then the summer late summer usually isn't brilliant either, because everyone's on holiday.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: So there is definitely something in this, but I wouldn't sort of say March 20th is the most important day of the year.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: That's not the date that I want to look at here.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: I want to give you something much, much more useful.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: But for everybody out there, freaking out and, generally speaking, mainstream media helps to drive the freak out.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: What we're seeing here is completely normal, and if you don't like and you're getting stressed out by what your portfolio is doing, you need to figure out a way to reduce your risk.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: You need to have less up and down, less volatility in your portfolio, and you can do that.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: It's not a hard thing to do.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: But for the last 50 years we've seen dips of 10% on average during any given year.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: So there is the minus.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: 10% happens once a year.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: At the moment, we're at minus 9%.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: This is completely normal.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: It isn't a crash, it isn't the end of the world.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: It's just the normal thing the market does every single year on average.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: So hopefully that will calm you down a little bit, which is what I want.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: Right, bye-bye, bye-bye is what you're saying.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: Okay, so what are you going to do with that information?
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: Is that not going to tell you that it's just normal and therefore, maybe I should be looking at buying some stops today, maybe I should be looking at buying the index today, or something?
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: How do you understand what to buy?
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: Well, the biggest item, the biggest failure or the biggest piece missing.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: The number one reason that retail investors you and me fail is because we don't have rules.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: We don't have a written rule book that tells us oh, in this moment, we do this, in this moment we do that, this is where we buy, this is where we sell, this is how we manage and handle our risk and my whole mission here.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: With our little community, we're about to hit 250,000 subscribers, which we're super excited about.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: It's amazing.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: Thank you so much for everybody who hit that little button.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: That doesn't mean a great deal to me and it'll allow us to reach even more people.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: Right, and that's really the goal here.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: I want to make a million people financially free, and for that we need to reach a lot of people.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: So I'm going to give you this and it's completely free masterclass.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: It's 15 minutes long, it's as short as I could possibly make it.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: I've crammed in all the knowledge and all the rules that I have that I use every week, every month, every year, and every week, every month, every year, and I've done for years and that allow me to do whatever I want, because my money works really really nicely for me.
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: And I want you to be in the same position where you, with confidence, can manage your money and, with confidence, make better decisions.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: If you just make slightly better decisions, if you just weed out the really terrible ones because that's the number one thing that holds most investors really back it's the big losses, right.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: They're completely avoidable if you just have these rules.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: So learn these rules.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: Head over to felixfrenzorg slash, get free and get yourself that financial education you deserve.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: It's free of charge at get free.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: So if you're going to do that, write, get free in the chat or GF.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: If you can't spell the whole world and the link's also down below and Fox has very kindly posted it into the chat here as well, and we'll talk a little bit about politics in a moment as well.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: It's always a chance to wind people up.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: But let me first of all teach you something really useful here.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: There is something called the reversal pattern and what happens just before or as the market bottoms.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: But as the market bottoms, we see a final panic, we see a final massive selling, we see shorts liquidating their position.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: Thanks for the little emojis and hearts there, brian, get free.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: Gf says make and what you want to watch out for.
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: So this is the QQQ, the NASDAQ here.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: Right, what you want to watch out for is a big spike candle here.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: So actually that big candle there had pretty decent volume.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: The one yesterday was also pretty bad, which I quite like.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: Actually you want these big bad candles that's what gets the sellers out of the market, but the volume wasn't really big enough.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: Candles that's what gets the sellers out of the market, but the volume wasn't really big enough.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: So normally what you see is you see one great big candle, like a really nice long red one right, and you close near the bottom end of it.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: You see a huge amount of volume and then you see that volume fizzle out because there are not enough sellers left and the market sort of doesn't really do very much.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: It just sort of like hangs around similar sort of levels, maybe even goes a little bit lower again, and that falling off in volume is your best indicator that you've bottomed out.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: And it's the same with the top.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: By the way, you see this rally up here, for example.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: See that rally up there that we had.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: Look at what volume did.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: Volume massively spiked, volume flattened off.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: That's when we're going sideways and that meant all the buyers had bought.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: And what then happens is we go down and volume picks up, which tells you get the F out.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: It's the same thing just upside down.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: When the market bottoms.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: Does that make some sense to you?
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: Does that make some sense to you?
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: Just put the number one in the chat and I can see that this made some sense.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: It doesn't have to sink in 100%, but it makes some sense to you and I'm super happy to revisit this, of course.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: If it doesn't, also, please do, let me know that.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: In which case you could put a two in there and say Felix, please explain this again like I'm five, okay, I'm seeing the ones there from Peter and Leonard and Brent and Roy and and Jonathan, some, Okay, loving that Makes stocks great again.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: Uno, brilliant, fantastic guys, loving all the ones there, lots of ones, amazing.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: So, okay, I'm glad that made some sense to you guys.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: That is, of course, the intention here.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: Now, where does the nasdaq therefore bounce?
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: We have a look.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: What do you see?
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: We're seeing the sell-off.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: We're seeing volume biking up a little bit small.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: I appreciate that and it's coming back down.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: Maybe I should open this in a slightly bigger window.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: If I do that, I think that would probably make sense.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: Okay, so let's just get rid of a bunch of stuff here.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: Actually.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: First of all, we are trading below the support level.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: 5.40 is the support.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: We're trading at 5.50 here.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: Not a pretty start to the day.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: That's the SPY here and confirming a correction as tariff war fears over shadow, cooler inflation data.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: Goldman Sachs lowered the year-end target softer than expected.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: Cpi report offered some relief, but Trump's tariffs are driving costs higher.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: All fears of that persist.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, and that's, by the way, the brand new news summary that we put into Trade Vision now, which I think is going to be really, really really useful for all the major stocks as well.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: We don't just give you the recent news, we also give you the key drivers, what's actually moving the stock.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: It's going to be super useful.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: But yeah, look at the QQQ Support's actually at 450.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: So it looks a little bit better.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: We're a little bit higher there.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: But what I really wanted to show you is there is a little indicator called RSI, right, and it's just basically gives you momentum as in are we oversold or overboard?
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: And if you just really go back in time a quite long way and look at every time that we were below 30, down here, let me get a pen down here, let me get a pen Below 30, we were here, we were there.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: There were a few where we were close but not quite there.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: And what happened?
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: What happened every time we were at that level?
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: Well, let's draw a line up.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: What's now the last time?
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: That one, yeah, that one, this one, right, that one.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: So what's that saying to you?
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: That you kind of get close to the market bottom.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: Not exactly, but it gives you a fairly good idea.
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: So the question therefore is, of course, is this the next bottom right?
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: So it's pretty rare that we drop much below the 30 on the RSI, because it's a very significant sell signal, or oversold signal, rather.
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: So I think it's one to watch, but I don't think it's the most important one, I don't think it's the most useful one even, but I do want to include it because I know a lot of people are talking about this right now and I want to make sure you guys really understand this data better than anybody out there.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: This is actually huge.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: You could even say bigly, as the orange one says in your White House EPI what the heck is PPI?
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: Ppi is Producer Price Index, so producer.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: This is actually really, really important If you want to really understand what's driving the market here over the next couple of months.
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: This is it Producer price index.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: It's basically inflation for manufacturers Manufacturers did I spell that right?
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: And why is that important?
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: Because that's a leading indicator.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: So it's a leading indicator for consumer inflation, which is what the media focuses on.
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: Right, when you see headlines about inflation, it's always about consumer inflation.
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: And why is it leading?
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: Because, right, when you see headlines about inflation, it's always about consumer inflation.
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: And why is it leading?
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: Because, well, say, you're buying I don't know this thing or the phone or something.
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: Someone's manufacturing it and they are then going to deliver that to a shop and then you're going to buy it.
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: So it happens, the manufacturing happens before it hits your wallet and therefore it's a leading indicator.
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: And what's inflation doing right now?
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: Producer inflation?
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: Well, it's at zero percent, for ppi is at minus 0.1 percent, and that was significantly below expectations.
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: So the whole inflation story that people are putting out there, the tariffs are going to cause all this inflation.
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: Well, they're better, because otherwise you're going to go into deflation, which is like the worst place to walk to be.
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: As the Japanese right, it's really not a happy place to be.