Latest / The Fourcast / What does Angela Rayner's resignation mean for Labour?

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What does Angela Rayner's resignation mean for Labour? · The Fourcast

0:00
The way she's being described is as if she is the most mendacious
0:05
politician this parliament has ever seen.
0:07
There's a real danger that today is the moment that the wheels
0:10
have come off this administration.
0:11
Does he know what his mission is?
0:14
What he's here for? If this government does fail,
0:17
it's not going to be replaced by some moderate Conservative
0:21
government. If this government fails, it
0:23
will be replaced by a populist far right government.
0:29
Hello and welcome to the Forecast.
0:31
Angela Rayner is out, brought down by her failure to pay
0:34
enough tax on a new flat and the failure to seek out the expert
0:38
tax advice that would have pointed it out.
0:40
The prime minister's ethics adviser, Sir Laurie Magnus, said
0:43
Rayner had acted with integrity but concluded that she had still
0:46
breached the ministerial code. But out of adversity comes
0:50
opportunity, as they say, and certainly Keir Starmer hasn't
0:53
wasted a moment after the departure of his deputy.
0:56
His dramatic government reset has seen some of the biggest
0:59
figures in his cabinet sacked or reshuffled.
1:02
David Lanny replaces Rayner as Deputy Prime Minister but loses
1:06
the prestigious foreign secretary, posting to Yvette
1:09
Cooper. She's replaced at the Home
1:10
Office by Shabana Mahmood and Lanny gets her job at Justice to
1:15
close that circle. And there are lots of other
1:17
moves in the middle management ranks.
1:19
So is Starmer really the night with the long knives?
1:23
And can it get his government back on track and stop Labour
1:26
hemorraging votes to reform with me here in Westminster?
1:29
Tom Baldwin, a former director of communications, called Labour
1:33
and Keir Starmer's biographer. So Craig Oliver was at the heart
1:36
of David Cameron's Downing St. operation and the Guardian
1:38
columnist Zoe Williams as well. Now obviously there's a lot to
1:41
talk about in terms of the future government direction with
1:44
this reshuffle, but we've got to start with the disaster of
1:47
Angela Rayner's loss. It's a huge blow, isn't?
1:50
It she and Keir Starmer have had their ups and downs over the
1:53
years, but I think he's genuinely regretful that she's
1:57
now leaving his government because she's a massive asset.
2:00
I mean, we talk about politicians being out of touch
2:02
or not having that sort of feel for what's really going on in
2:05
the country. Very few people in politics have
2:08
ever brought her life experience to these seat of power like she
2:13
has. I mean, you know, she she left
2:15
school at 16 pregnant when she talked about grooming and she
2:18
said that could have been me because she was leaving
2:20
nightclubs and getting the cars with the wrong men.
2:22
You know, when she talks about care leavers becoming being
2:26
deemed intentionally homeless, rules that she changed because
2:29
that could have been her, that that direct life experience is
2:33
really unusual in politics. It's what the Labour Party
2:36
should be about. And her departure from
2:38
government now is really, really sad.
2:41
The truth is that the public didn't rally to her defence.
2:44
You know, it played into that. They're all the same.
2:46
They're all out for themselves. A few.
2:48
Children, she had to go. The thing is about Angela Rayner
2:50
is it's precisely because she's a work, a working class figure
2:54
in in politics who doesn't actually tow the to toe the
2:58
part. She doesn't particularly toe the
3:00
party line, but she also doesn't accept a lot of the precepts of
3:03
the mainstream. And they were out to get her and
3:06
have been out to get her for a really, really, really long
3:08
time. The media has been absolutely
3:10
savage to Angela Rayner way before this happened.
3:13
You know, two years ago she couldn't go to the opera because
3:16
that wasn't authentic. But she did screw up.
3:17
There's no point defending her. The thing is, this was somebody
3:20
who. I actually disagree with you.
3:22
I think there is a .40. 1000 lbs of tax.
3:25
Yes, and I'm not defending that bit, but the the way it's been
3:29
covered, you know, the Tory, the Telegraph, sorry, I call it the
3:31
Tory graph. The Telegraph was saying that
3:34
she was actually somehow making use of her son's disabilities
3:37
for a financial gain for herself, which is a despicable
3:41
slur and not remotely true. She did.
3:44
If I'd been her, would I have just felt embraced it and just
3:47
paid the taxes though, or the second time?
3:49
Yeah, of course, because even if there were an ambiguity, it
3:52
wasn't worth the fallout. But she as, as was found by the
3:57
ethics inquiry, she she was, she acted with integrity, just not
4:01
smartly enough. And the way she's being
4:02
described is as if she is the most mendacious, most mercenary
4:09
politician this Parliament has ever seen.
4:11
Now that is preposterous. But, but politically, whether
4:16
you like her or not, it's a disaster, isn't it, for Keir
4:18
Starmer? Yeah, I think it is a total
4:20
disaster and you can't put any gloss on it that doesn't show it
4:23
anything other. He started the week saying he
4:25
was going to relaunch his government with phase two, and
4:28
he's ended it with a massive reshuffle, which he hadn't been
4:31
planning. That is not good for any Prime
4:33
Minister or any government to be in that situation.
4:36
I do agree with the points that that Tom and Zoe are making,
4:38
like she's a great character and authentic person and that she's
4:41
made a real impact. She's one of the few cabinet
4:43
ministers in the last year who's really, really come, I think,
4:46
with positivity. And I think that that is a huge
4:48
loss to Keir Starmer. The other side of that is if the
4:51
boot had been on the other foot, she would have been kicking hard
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and she's done that in the past. And there is an element of what
4:57
source for the goose is source for the gander here.
5:00
Just just on that, I think we have to be careful not do what
5:03
we call false equivalents here, right?
5:05
Yeah, She's been reckless, maybe careless in how she bought a new
5:11
flat, her only property in Brighton.
5:14
There's no equivalence there between Downing St. being the
5:17
most prosecuted workplace in the country during COVID, hundreds
5:22
of millions of pounds of public money being handed out to Tory
5:25
mates and Tory cronies. Boris Johnson lying so often.
5:29
But that's all history. It doesn't matter.
5:31
But. People shouldn't draw moral
5:32
credits. It's not all the same.
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That's really dangerous when people say politics are all the
5:36
same. Even the the even the report
5:38
today says she acted with integrity.
5:39
She's made a mistake and she's paid the price for it.
5:41
What? Do you think that if there been
5:44
a Tory politician that was in exactly the same circumstance as
5:46
Angela Ranger that she wouldn't have been kicking them?
5:50
I, I think she probably would have been kicking, but I think,
5:53
you know, when she was kicking people like Nadine Zahari, that
5:55
was about millions and millions of pounds, not 40,000 lbs.
5:59
I mean, you do have to. Decide it's sort of it's.
6:02
To add something to that, which is that you're, you get a huge
6:04
insulation from being extremely wealthy.
6:06
So I know nothing at all about Boris Johnson's divorce.
6:09
I know nothing at all about Matt, Matt Hancock's divorce
6:12
because they've got money. So I don't know where they pay
6:14
for expensive lawyers. You know, they pay for the
6:16
expensive lawyers. I don't know where the equity
6:18
went in their houses. I just don't know.
6:20
Whereas when you're kind of Angela Rayner, she, all the
6:23
money she's got is money that she's worked, worked for is
6:25
quite transparent. You are a disadvantage I think.
6:28
I mean, you know, the, the, the other aspect though of what he's
6:31
lost is a woman who could reach parts of the Labour Party that
6:35
he can't. But it's more than that Kier, I
6:37
mean, if Kier thinks if, if it's like Kier being, everybody's
6:41
talking as though Kier has been super ruthless and very smart
6:44
and he's really just like surging through.
6:46
But actually this weakens Kier, not just with the with the
6:50
Labour members who really liked Angela, not just with the with
6:53
the left of the parliamentary party who were feeling
6:55
rebellious and fractious anyway, but also with his own detractors
6:59
aren't in the centre right of the Labour Party.
7:01
They were always, they were never going to move on him
7:04
because the alternative was always going to be Angela Rayner
7:06
because she was deputy. Once the deputy isn't that much
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of A threat, he's in a much more precarious position.
7:13
It, it look it, he definitely looks a definite loss for Keir
7:16
Starmer. But he did say he was going to
7:18
behave like this. I mean, he said to, he said, he
7:21
said to me, he said to me before the election that no one's going
7:24
to believe that I want to restore trust in in politics
7:27
until I act. And when a minister is in clear
7:31
breach of the ministerial code, they will be out.
7:33
I don't care who they are, I don't care whether it's Rachel
7:35
Reed, whoever, they will be out. And that's to be fair to him,
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that's what he's done. We often point out when promises
7:40
don't fulfil their promises. This is a promise met as we're
7:45
pointing that out too. Though they could have been more
7:47
ruthless, couldn't they? I mean, they could have said on
7:49
Monday, this is going to be a disaster, you need to go now.
7:53
He waited till the end of the week.
7:55
He's. Done the old fashioned thing of
7:57
establishing the facts, asking an independent.
8:00
You've just read the government website, no?
8:03
No, asking the independent, and it's important that you have an
8:05
independent adviser. The reason why Boris Johnson
8:07
didn't have one, this government's got one.
8:10
Well, asking the independent ethics advisor to make it, to do
8:13
a report, waiting for that, and then acting.
8:16
That's how governments should operate.
8:17
But Tim Allen, you know, began his big new job as the executive
8:20
director of communications this week in the Monday reshuffle.
8:24
Shouldn't have been the man in charge of the message.
8:25
Shouldn't he have been saying you've just got to go, you know?
8:29
I've been in situations before where at the beginning of the
8:31
week I've said to the Prime Minister, I'm pretty certain by
8:34
the end of the week, this person's going to have to go and
8:37
you are going to spend this entire week investing political
8:40
capital in them and that's going to be problematic for you.
8:43
The case of Maria Miller I think was a good case of that.
8:45
The the entire week was spent defending her and then she had
8:48
to go. And I would just say one thing
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to Tom here. I think that he's doing a
8:51
brilliant job of trying to put a gloss on this, but he's
8:54
clutching his Taws here. You know, yes, OK, there's some
8:57
integrity in terms of maybe how Keir Thomas behave, but it is a
9:00
disaster and one of and the Deputy Prime Minister, the
9:04
deputy leader of the Labour Party and the housing minister
9:06
has gone in one foul swoop. That is seriously problematic.
9:10
You now have a different Foreign secretary to the one we had
9:13
yesterday. Right.
9:13
Well, let's talk about that, that reshuffle and what's
9:16
happened, because he could have gone for a very, very minimal
9:20
reshuffle. He could have just moved Pat
9:22
McFadden to housing and promoted Darren Jones and that would have
9:26
been it. You know, no, no need for a big
9:28
reshuffle. Instead he's gone for a massive
9:29
reshuffle. All you know, all the key people
9:32
have lost their jobs, except arguably 2 of the big problems,
9:36
Rachel Reeves and Ed Miliband. Why is he gone for this
9:39
Miliband? Isn't the problem.
9:40
Well, I mean, if you're trying to, if you're trying to fight
9:44
reform, those are the two issues, aren't they?
9:47
Reform vote is actually like net zero.
9:49
I really, I mean, you have to be careful with that I.
9:52
Also need to take we'll. Come back to that.
9:53
But why is he gone for a big reshuffle rather than a little
9:55
one? As a result of this I.
9:57
Mean look, look, it is they're, they're, I think they were
10:01
planning a big reshuffle. I think they brought it forward.
10:04
I think it does have the advantage of, you know, showing
10:09
the seizing initiative, reinvigorating a government
10:14
which has been bashed around a lot.
10:16
I think there are other things going on.
10:17
I mean, I, I think for a long time they've regarded Yvette
10:21
Cooper as an obstacle to taking a tougher line on immigrants and
10:27
small boats crossings. Now, whether that's, you know,
10:31
whether Shabana is going to be the first time, she's a bit of a
10:33
favorite down the street. But I think a lot of the
10:35
reshuffle revolves around that change there.
10:39
Zoe, what were you going? To say, well, I really need to
10:41
take issue with this idea that you that people, the cabinet
10:44
ministers who are unpopular with reform voters are somehow a
10:48
problem for the Labour Party. The problem for the Labour Party
10:51
is that they don't have more cabinet ministers who reform
10:54
voters don't like because there is such a thing as a as a as a
10:58
political divide. So what problems do you think
11:00
they are solving? So what?
11:01
They think what they think they're solving is, I mean,
11:04
basically they they think they're solving if they put a
11:07
vet on foreign on foreign, then they don't have the problem with
11:11
her in the Home Office. What?
11:12
Was the problem well? The problem was that everything
11:15
about her past as a politician was pro asylum seekers, pro
11:19
humanity, pro decency. And then she was.
11:21
Not that's a problem in the modern.
11:22
Election. But she was suddenly having to
11:24
come out and make these ridiculous cases like, oh, I
11:26
have St. George's flags all over my
11:29
house, house. I've even got a Yorkshire flag.
11:31
I mean, she was trying to out reform, reform and it was making
11:35
her and the party ridiculous. I think she will actually,
11:38
ironically be less exposed to that as foreign secretary than
11:41
she was as home secretary. I think it's a big theme that's
11:44
in danger of coming through this week for Kier Starmer, and it
11:47
started with yet again reshuffling the backroom staff.
11:51
This isn't quite working. They're not doing the job I want
11:53
them to do now. I'm reshuffling my top team
11:55
because they're not quite working, they're not doing the
11:57
thing. The problem is for the Labour
11:59
Party at the moment and this administration is what does it
12:02
stand for and who is it for? And nobody that I can meet who
12:06
takes a keen interest in politics can sum that up crisply
12:09
and cleanly, let alone the Prime Minister.
12:11
And as long as he goes round and round second people left, right
12:14
and centre and saying that until he gets to the point of saying
12:17
this is what this government is for, this is who it's for, and
12:21
is able to say that clearly and be able to demonstrate day after
12:24
day after day that that is what is happening, he's going to
12:27
continue with problems like this.
12:28
And there's a real danger that today is the moment that the
12:31
wheels have come off this administration and it won't be
12:33
able to write itself. It's got a big budget coming up.
12:36
That's a problem. It's going to have to elect the
12:37
deputy leader of the Labour Party where it's going to be a
12:39
running commentary on policy of the government.
12:42
It's it's it's really bad. And at the heart of it is, what
12:46
are you stand for and what are you trying to achieve?
12:48
Yeah, I, I. Couldn't agree more about the
12:50
what you, what do you stand for? It's, it's really preposterous
12:53
because they, they spent so long trying to purge the left of the
12:57
party and they're so they, they were so triumphant about it.
13:01
You know, we've purged all the left wing members.
13:03
We've like sidelined all the left MPs.
13:05
They kind of managed to, but they, you know, the, the, the
13:08
rebellion on welfare, it sort of passed because summer happened.
13:12
But really the the real problem with that was nothing to do with
13:16
the problem was if you've got no left of the party then somebody
13:21
in the centre needs to tell us what it's for because I haven't
13:25
seen them know that. And do you see this reshuffle as
13:28
a purge of the left? Well, no, I mean, you know, the
13:30
left got purged ages ago. Angie isn't being Angie.
13:33
You know Angie's left because Angie's left.
13:34
But that, you know, it wasn't, it wasn't purging the left for
13:38
her to go, whether she went like this or any other way.
13:40
Look. Political parties aren't
13:42
necessarily coalitions. And I think there has been a
13:47
sense by among a lot of Labour supporters, a lot of Labour MPs,
13:51
that this government has been a little bit in Hock to a media
13:55
narrative that this is all about reform and that they've spent
13:58
too much of the summer basically saying, you know, Nigel Farage
14:00
is right, please don't vote for him.
14:02
Well, I think it's very important now that Kier uses his
14:07
conference speech, that Rachel uses her budget to reassert a
14:11
sense of Labour values which are different to those of reform.
14:17
If you're going to be, as Keir Starmer said to me, a
14:20
progressive Labour Party fighting the populist right of
14:23
reform, you have to speak some Labour language now.
14:26
Andrew was brilliant at that. I hope she continues to do that
14:29
from the backbenches. But it's really important that
14:31
that clear message, that clear narrative about who we are is
14:34
expressed now. Don't mean that.
14:36
Do you know what to do? So Craig, Craig say, oh, yeah,
14:39
when they reshuffle, you know, the the press team in
14:41
downstream, that's got to be about.
14:43
I mean, not everything is not what he has for breakfast has
14:45
got to be the message. But I do think they've got to
14:47
take this opportunity now. Yeah.
14:48
No, no. But you can't make every single
14:51
thing a critical moment. Keep sacking your people and
14:55
saying they are to black. Also can I just say take as well
14:57
you? You.
14:58
You both. They will get there.
15:00
They need to find a message. You know, this week may not be
15:03
the best moment to express that message because there's too much
15:05
going on. But there are big moments coming
15:07
up. Conference budget.
15:08
But does he know that? The question is, does he know
15:11
what his mission is, what he's here for?
15:14
Because. And do you know what it is?
15:15
Because you spent more time with them than anyone else.
15:17
But you're exactly you're really betraying yourselves, all of you
15:20
as insiders so deep seated that you think conference, which is
15:25
going to be the inflection point when everybody understands.
15:28
I mean, that's like too insidery.
15:30
That is not what knowing where you're going is, and everybody
15:33
know you know nobody to. Say it though, isn't it?
15:36
Yeah, but Tom. But nobody.
15:37
Takes it. Nobody takes.
15:38
It I mean, there's a serious question.
15:39
Do you know what his great mission is?
15:42
I've always been confident that Keir Starmer has a set of
15:46
recognisable left of centre and also British values of decency,
15:51
fair play, the rule of law. These are these are things which
15:53
I think Keir Starmer really stands for.
15:55
I don't think he needs this vision, which is one of these
15:57
political insider words. I mean, you know, when I get
15:59
into a car, I don't say I've got a vision about where I'm going.
16:01
I use SAT NAV right. So, so I think the, the, the, I
16:05
think, I think he can express those values.
16:07
I think the danger is that people are always looking,
16:09
there's big sort of media, political industry saying what's
16:12
the new comma big idea? What's the three word slogan
16:15
that's going to take on for? Well, I don't think, I don't
16:16
think he needs to do that. I don't think he needs some
16:18
single big vision. I think it does need to show
16:22
demonstrate that he stands for Labour value.
16:24
But he's the one, The thing is, let me check.
16:26
And he is the one who said Farage is the big opposition.
16:29
It's not one of the media narrative.
16:31
The, you know, the the the. He.
16:34
He, he says immediately out of now, but he said it very early
16:36
on. He said reform of the
16:38
opposition, not the Conservatives.
16:40
We all know what Farage stands for now.
16:42
Whether you think he can deliver it or not is a, is a, is a
16:45
different thing. But but we know what you know he
16:48
means. If you create a vacuum in
16:50
politics, it will be filled by other people.
16:52
You have seen throughout the summer Nigel Farage running
16:55
rings around the government and the Conservative Party setting
16:58
the agenda and it, I'm, I'm sorry to say this Tom Keir
17:02
Salmer's biography cannot tell us what the government is about
17:05
and what it's for. And that is a real problem.
17:08
It's not about techniques and like trying to win over the
17:11
media and all that kind of stuff.
17:12
It is in the way that Atlee said I want to set up the welfare
17:15
state and the NHS. We know what he wanted to do.
17:18
What is the equivalent project for Keir Starmer?
17:21
Give me a. SEC.
17:22
Because The thing is there all that kind of he stands for
17:25
decency, he stands for British values.
17:27
There is literally no politician, including Nigel
17:29
Farage, who wouldn't say that. So it's not a question of like
17:32
he needs a vision, as in he needs a big new thing.
17:36
And it's not a it's not a question of he needs something
17:38
that, you know, everybody can, everybody can write down in a
17:40
paragraph. It's it's the reason people know
17:44
what Nigel Farage stands for is that he doesn't equivocate.
17:47
So at some point he has to have he has to stop equivocating and
17:52
and have some have an enemy. For example, you know, there is
17:56
the the Kier doesn't Kier never has an enemy.
17:59
He's never against business. He's never against, he's never
18:02
against wealth. He's never against anything.
18:05
He's never against anybody except a little bit less than
18:08
whoever Farage is against. And that you know, he is a
18:12
problem. He doesn't seem like he has a
18:14
passion for a different, well, look, look.
18:19
I, I don't think it is necessarily the case that the
18:21
public know exactly what Farad stands for.
18:23
And I think one of the things that Labour really need to do
18:26
over the next few months is take on reform from being a sort of
18:31
feeling like Brexit was a feeling.
18:32
It was an abstract concept rather than a specific proposal.
18:35
I think the referendum would have been one if you'd actually
18:37
had a specific proposal because there's never a majority for
18:40
specific form of Brexit. And I think as reform now have
18:43
to have a program for government and I think as it emerges of who
18:47
they are, it will be actually easier to define who Labour are
18:51
and what Labour is about. And I think you're going to see
18:53
a lot more about fairness. You'll see going to see a lot
18:55
more about opportunity. There's some ideas around
18:58
contributions which I'm not, I'm less convinced by at the moment.
19:00
But, but I think there are themes emerging.
19:02
But they do have to. I think they haven't done enough
19:04
to join all the dots of those bullet points, of those
19:07
different missions, those staging posts, those milestones,
19:10
those, you know, there's too many bullet points and you need
19:12
to join the dots. The missing membrane has been a
19:14
very clear expression of Labour and rather traditional British
19:19
values, which I think Keir Starmer can represent.
19:21
I just don't think it's been done well enough before.
19:23
I mean, what what happened to mission driven government and
19:25
all of that? You know, I mean it's.
19:26
Gone. What was the?
19:27
3 words. What was the three words word
19:29
thing? Was it the beginning of this
19:30
week or the end of last? Week I I don't like three word
19:32
slogans. I think three word slogans.
19:34
I think three word slogans, whoever take that control, get
19:37
Brexit done, smash the boats are part of the problem that we've
19:40
got in this politics. Ridiculous conversation.
19:42
We are going round and round in circles trying to work out what
19:45
the hell this government's trying to do.
19:47
It is madness, and isn't it terrible?
19:49
Isn't it a damning indictment of what's actually happened today
19:53
that has resulted in three people who follow politics
19:55
incredibly closely, who can't begin to say what this
19:58
government's doing or what it's about?
19:59
What you. Did say that I.
20:00
Don't think it's true, but you have well, give me one example.
20:03
You you want a three word slogan and I'm what?
20:05
I'm I don't know. I want a policy no but.
20:07
Listen, I don't want a policy or a three.
20:09
There's lots of policy. There is an appetite in this
20:12
country for a party that opposes racist language, for a party
20:15
that is not cruel to migrants, for a party that stands up to
20:19
water companies, for a party that redistributes wealth.
20:22
There is an appetite in this country for that those politics
20:25
and Labour isn't iterating them now.
20:27
Labour doesn't want to be that party anymore, but if they don't
20:30
want to be that party anymore, trying to be half that party, it
20:34
clearly isn't working. For them.
20:35
So, so, so let's just drill a little bit into the deck chairs,
20:38
you know, and what and what, what each of these appointments
20:40
might mean. You won't.
20:41
Be able to. Move them.
20:42
I mean, the truth is that for most of the public, you know,
20:44
they don't really know who a lot of these cabinet figures are.
20:46
They're not they're not sort of giant personalities.
20:49
But what is he doing beyond? I mean, I get you're, you're
20:53
saying fine, Yvette Cooper was a bit of a block to reforming the
20:56
Home Office in your view, but what, what what else has he
21:01
achieved, though? I mean, what, why move Peter
21:04
Kyle? Why move Liz Kendall?
21:05
Why, you know, why give all of these people new jobs?
21:08
That's. Why Pat McFadden has been moved
21:10
to welfare, big spending department, but actually that
21:13
proposals was sunk below the waterline, you know, or they're
21:16
going back for another. Bite, aren't they?
21:18
And he doesn't mind. He's he's such a Street Fighter.
21:21
Pat McFadden. If they are, then that would be
21:23
interesting. Take welfare, right?
21:25
That's what we mean by doing stuff through Labour values.
21:29
Now Keir Starmer has experience of disability.
21:32
His mother was very disabled, his brother was disabled.
21:34
He knows about this. So he could do a big speech,
21:36
talk about his personal experience of this and then say
21:39
we are going to change this, we are going to try and slow down
21:42
the increase in the cost of disability benefits.
21:45
But it's going to be informed by Labour principles.
21:48
We don't put children into poverty, we take children out of
21:51
poverty. We make sure their resources go
21:54
to the people who really need them.
21:55
And young people who can work should be encouraged back to
21:57
work. Those are Labour principles.
21:59
Those are principles everyone can sign up to.
22:01
And if you did welfare reform through that, I think you can
22:03
take the country and the PLP with you.
22:05
That's what I mean. But.
22:06
What was this Kendall getting wrong that Pat McFadden will get
22:09
right, you know? Well, I mean, I, I think Pat
22:11
McFadden, you know, he'll knock heads together.
22:14
Liz Kendall used to get quite, quite grumpy.
22:17
But no. But she didn't in the end, head
22:19
off the rebellion. And they probably think Pat
22:22
McFadden could. I mean, I don't think it's going
22:24
to work, but I think that's the thinking.
22:26
Why don't you think it's going to work?
22:27
Well, because those, now that it's been galvanised, those MPs,
22:31
it was a large number of Labour MPs went voted against that or
22:36
kind of threatened to. And now they're, they're not
22:39
going to sit. I mean, I don't know whether
22:40
it's, I don't know whether it's actually going to pan out this
22:42
way. But after the bond markets at
22:44
the end of last week, a lot of people were saying they're going
22:46
to have to go back for another go at welfare reform.
22:48
And I don't think those MPs are going to go, oh, now I've heard
22:52
about the bond markets. I'm not going to rebel again.
22:54
I think it's going to, I think it's going to be just as bad, if
22:56
not worse than last. Time there's a much better way
22:58
to approach these reforms than the one they did.
23:00
They made it presented as a cut. I think people are playing in to
23:05
a sort of Daily Mail, Sun Times, Telegraph thing about everyone
23:08
on welfare as a sponsor and a cheat, which is not true.
23:10
And, and I, I think there's a better way to do this, but you
23:13
start by saying we're going to be a better Labour government,
23:16
not a bad version of a reform government.
23:19
Yeah, but wasn't the biggest reshuffle you can imagine an
23:22
opportunity to really look at Rachel Reeves?
23:25
I mean, Oh my. Gosh, that's so harsh.
23:28
Well, I mean, you know, there have been lots of people saying
23:30
Rachel Reeves is going to have to go at some point in time, but
23:34
if you and. If you as a government lose your
23:36
chancellor, historically that really is admitting that the
23:39
game is up. It is very rare in history for a
23:41
chancellor to go and that not signaled the end.
23:44
It might take a while to happen, but I think he would be
23:46
extremely nervous. And what signal would it send as
23:50
well? We very was just talking about
23:52
what was going on in the Gilson bond markets and increased
23:54
interest rates, that kind of thing.
23:56
That message is that somebody who's talking about actually
23:59
being in fiscally responsibility is going who replaces them.
24:03
Do you then frighten the horses of the left wing of the Labour
24:05
Party by putting somebody who really is into?
24:07
So she think the fact that they're not, you know, the she,
24:10
she was absolutely. The first thing they said was
24:12
she's not losing her job. I think that.
24:15
That tells you that the fiscal rules aren't going to change,
24:18
no? They, they, they painted
24:20
themselves into a corner on the economy.
24:22
And Reeves and Starmer are tied at the hip and they, they, they
24:26
hang together or hang apart. It's they that would have been
24:29
utterly disastrous to have lost the Chancellor today or to have
24:32
moved the Chancellor today. I mean, it would have looked
24:35
extremely chaotic, wouldn't it, to lose your Deputy Prime
24:37
Minister and lose your chancellor in the same day.
24:39
It would it would it would look like self sabotage.
24:42
Well, is it? Is it worse than moving your
24:43
home secretary and foreign secretary?
24:45
I think so. Yeah, I think the reaction in
24:46
the markets when people thought that Rachel Reeves might be
24:49
going earlier in the summer does give an indication of how
24:54
important she is to this government.
24:56
And the access between her and Kira, I think is intact.
24:59
I think it'd be very strange to spend the summer planning to
25:03
start trying to express what this government's about with the
25:06
budget. That's one of the opportunities
25:07
to to express it, to then remove the chancellor just beforehand.
25:10
Is there? Have we got a date for the
25:12
budget? Yeah, I remember this when he
25:13
said, yeah, OK, because it's, it's already, it's already going
25:17
to be hideous that you know, it's going to be.
25:19
It's whatever happens, it's not going to, it's not going to feel
25:22
like there's loads of money and this is going to be nearly
25:24
Christmas. The other job Angela Rayner had
25:26
was deputy leader of the Labour Party.
25:27
That's not something Keir Starmer can just sort out, is
25:30
it? There has to be an election and
25:33
that's going to prompt a debate about whether Keir Starmer's got
25:37
the Labour Party in the right direction.
25:40
Do you think they can sort of fix it so there's so that
25:44
there's not really a proper contest or do you think this is
25:46
going to be a big out there debate about the future of the
25:49
Labour Party? Are you?
25:50
Sure of actually changing the rules of the election of that
25:53
post. I don't think there's any way to
25:54
fix it. Well, I mean, you know, whoever
25:57
stands has got to get nominated by quite a large number of MPs,
26:00
which might rule out what might be called a sort of hard left
26:05
candidate. We'll see loads of hard left.
26:08
I'm not. I'm not sure there's quite
26:09
enough of that. Sorry, no.
26:11
As a candidate, who would be the candidate?
26:13
Who would be the candidate? I mean, it could conceivably be
26:15
Louise Haig. That's probably the most.
26:18
She's the most. No.
26:19
OK, They've got no soft left. Kind of medium.
26:21
Medium. She's like tofu.
26:23
She's like medium left, But. But.
26:26
Try and do it by acclamation if they possibly can.
26:29
The thought. Of the Labour Party doesn't do
26:30
that. Well, no, you.
26:31
I mean, if only one person stands, you can actually
26:34
engineer a situation with that. Gordon Brown, of course.
26:37
Cinder. You can engineer a situation
26:38
where one person stands, but the reality of having conflicting
26:41
voices with a running commentary on policy and what influence
26:44
you'll have on that is potentially disastrous.
26:47
Do. You think, do you think a single
26:49
candidate is possible? And who would it be?
26:51
I I. I look, I don't think there's a
26:54
huge appetite in APLP for a long and divisive election about, you
27:02
know, the direction of this government.
27:03
I think that, you know, I think a contest is not necessarily a
27:06
bad thing divided in within the, you know, Labours are broad
27:11
church, but as Neil Kinnock, like, say, churches have walls.
27:14
And, you know, and, and, and, you know, as long as it's within
27:17
that framework, I think that's not necessarily a bad thing
27:20
because, you know, there does need to be a reconnection with
27:22
the party. There needs to be a reconnection
27:24
with Labour voters as well, a lot of whom haven't been
27:27
hearing, you know, enough about why this is a progressive
27:30
government. I think, and I think Kate is
27:32
aware of that. So I think, yeah, this could
27:34
actually be a positive thing in a way to have a depth leadership
27:36
contest. You know, it can go wrong.
27:38
I'm not guaranteeing, but I think in the right way, fought
27:40
in the right way, it could be a positive.
27:41
But is there another Angela Rayner who is a soft left
27:44
candidate but who is loyal to Kier, Stan Lisa?
27:46
Nandy could, yeah. There's lots of different.
27:48
Things. It's not going to be Lisa.
27:49
It would be, I can see it being Louise.
27:51
I can, you know, a harder left candidate would be Clive Lewis.
27:54
But the the truth of it is, whatever happens, this is not
27:58
going to be great for Labour because if it's just ringside
28:00
seat on Internet sign quite bitter fighting, which yields a
28:06
candidate that nobody much, nobody much likes and just
28:09
leaves everybody feeling very bruised.
28:13
It's it's a precarious moment for the party in membership
28:16
terms with your party starting and Zach Polanski winning the
28:19
Greens. It's a precarious moment in
28:21
terms of the PLP with so many of them kind of disgruntled and not
28:24
really knowing what the what the point, what their kind of
28:27
mission is. It's very precarious for Labour.
28:29
And I think, even though I'm looking forward to it because I
28:32
think there are conversations that need to be had, I think
28:34
it's going to be ugly and and destructive.
28:39
Do you think it's possible that Andy Burnham comes back into the
28:43
fold somehow? Or Yeah, I mean, or, or or is
28:48
that for another day? I.
28:50
Mean there are there's possibilities for by elections I
28:54
don't think he. Would have to be an MP would he
28:56
would. Have to be an MP, but I don't, I
28:57
don't have to. Be deputy.
28:58
Leader of the yes, he does. He has to be from the PLP.
29:00
But I don't, I, I, I think it's very unlikely that the deputy
29:04
leader, new deputy leader is going to be anything other than
29:06
a woman. I think it would look very odd
29:07
to have 222 men. I mean, what what?
29:09
What is remarkable is now all the great offices of state other
29:13
than Prime Minister, the first time in British history occupied
29:16
by women. I just don't.
29:17
I'm secretary, foreign secretary and chancellor.
29:18
It's just not. Remarkable anymore women are
29:20
capable of being just as useless as men, and it's just not
29:24
amazing to see that, to see loads of.
29:27
Them Craig send the wrong. Message to people, I think, I
29:29
think we're seeing the danger of like the Labour Party navel
29:32
gazing and looking into itself and saying, having all these
29:35
discussions and arguments, I make one big point as we're
29:38
coming towards the end, I genuinely want to see this
29:41
government succeed. And the reason I want that is I
29:43
want a broad government that's largely in and around the centre
29:47
of politics is to see, because I think the the British people are
29:49
looking at politics at the moment and saying you're all
29:52
failing. And if there's another failed
29:54
government, that is going to be a real and serious problem in
29:57
this country because it plays into the hands of Nigel Farage.
30:00
And so I genuinely hope they get their act together, but I'm not
30:04
hearing any sign of it at the moment.
30:06
Look, for once I'm going to agree with Craig, partly because
30:09
he wants the government to succeed.
30:10
But the point is this, if this government does fail, it's not
30:15
going to be replaced by some moderate Conservative government
30:19
or even a moderate Conservative government in line to the
30:21
Liberal Democrats, Keir Starmer said.
30:24
I think it's true, if this government fails, it will be
30:27
replaced by a populist far right government which will do
30:31
immense, immense damage to everything we hold dear about
30:36
this country. And so if you're patriotic, I
30:38
think you should do want this government to succeed.
30:42
If it even if it doesn't fail, I think it's going to be defeated
30:45
by a populist far right government at the ballot box.
30:48
I thought you've already. I haven't given up.
30:50
I'm I'm just I'm I'm, I'm, I'm my Money's on another horse.
30:55
What you think You think a far left party can win I.
30:57
Think we need to have? Or do you think just splinters
31:00
the left front? A party that's saying things
31:02
that people believe in. Even at the price of, even at
31:05
the price of reform winning. You can't you.
31:06
The thing is, I've been listening to you guys since 1997
31:09
when you say take your medicine, give up what you what you want.
31:13
We're the only people who are going to win.
31:14
And I'm done listening to it. All I all I know is that when
31:18
the right coalition gets together, they tend to win.
31:20
When the left coalition gets together, we tend to win.
31:22
And it's really important, it's really important to try and find
31:25
ways of building and bringing that coalition together, which
31:28
goes back to my point, which you do have to start speaking
31:31
progressive values. You can't just be looking like
31:33
you're chasing after a form when we're losing 3 times as many
31:35
votes to progressive parties than we are to reform.
31:38
We had better leave it there. Tom Paul, twins Zoe Williams and
31:42
Craig Oliver, thank you very much indeed for joining us.
31:45
That's the forecast from Westminster.
31:47
Bye. Bye.