Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Interview Only w/ Ian Bremmer - Trump Is Driving Instability & Chaos Around The Globe

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Interview Only w/ Ian Bremmer - Trump Is Driving Instability & Chaos Around The Globe · The Chuck ToddCast

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Speaker 1: a sponsor I absolutely embrace, so use that code. How
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Speaker 1: unsettled do you feel about the globe? How unsettled do
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Speaker 1: you feel about American politics? Obviously, of the year I
1:57
Speaker 1: team twenty twenty six, a year of living dayangerously, I think,
2:02
Speaker 1: whether it's what we saw in Minnesota feels like we're
2:06
Speaker 1: a spark away from something not good in this country,
2:10
Speaker 1: and we have a world that feels unsettled everywhere, whether
2:13
Speaker 1: it's Venezuela, whether it's Iron, whether it's Taiwan, whether it's Ukraine.
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Speaker 1: Well you get the picture. So who better to bring
2:20
Speaker 1: in to talk about all the risk and the year
2:22
Speaker 1: of living dangerously than my Friendie and Bremer of your
2:25
Speaker 1: Raisier group and Ian.
2:27
Speaker 2: Look you you.
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Speaker 1: I started off a bit glum for the year, and
2:31
Speaker 1: you had you played a big role in that. Your annuals,
2:35
Speaker 1: your annual risk list of top risks out there, frankly,
2:41
Speaker 1: only reinforced what I think what was already I was
2:45
Speaker 1: sort of seeing domestically, and certainly I sort of refer
2:48
Speaker 1: to myself these days as a political anthropologist when it
2:52
Speaker 1: comes to domestic politics. But you've got your pulse on
2:56
Speaker 1: international political science as well. So you painted a picture
3:02
Speaker 1: of Look, I want to quote Doc Brown in a
3:09
Speaker 1: back to the future, where we're going there are no roads.
3:12
Speaker 1: I don't know where we're going, but I know there
3:14
Speaker 1: are no roads, and we're headed somewhere that by the
3:17
Speaker 1: end of this year you and I may meet up again,
3:20
Speaker 1: going holy shit, how did we get here?
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Speaker 2: I mean this, It's not like there isn't good news
3:28
Speaker 2: out there, right. I mean, for example, last twenty years,
3:33
Speaker 2: most of the people I know in the international affairs
3:37
Speaker 2: space thought that we were heading towards US China confrontation,
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Speaker 2: new Cold war, you know, could could lead to something
3:45
Speaker 2: even worse than that. That that's not where we are, right,
3:49
Speaker 2: I mean the.
3:51
Speaker 1: Right. And I also think when we can talk about
3:54
Speaker 1: Iron for a minute, we're about to see a Middle
3:57
Speaker 1: East that maybe.
4:00
Speaker 2: A whole new world.
4:01
Speaker 1: In a in a good way.
4:03
Speaker 2: Maybe maybe I'd love to see that. I think we're
4:06
Speaker 2: still We're still farther from that than i'd like us
4:09
Speaker 2: to be. There's a lot of capacity and willingness to repress,
4:12
Speaker 2: and a lot of Ronnie and civilians that are dead
4:15
Speaker 2: today that weren't a week ago. But still, I mean,
4:20
Speaker 2: it's not like everything in the world is blowing up,
4:22
Speaker 2: and the response to the United States is not purely destructive.
4:26
Speaker 2: I mean, frankly, you know, the EU and Mercasoor just
4:31
Speaker 2: did one of the world's largest free trade deals that
4:34
Speaker 2: wouldn't have happened if it wasn't for Trump, because they're.
4:38
Speaker 1: I talked about this the last time I had you on.
4:41
Speaker 1: I think Donald Trump's making Europe great again. Well, I
4:44
Speaker 1: wouldn't go down, I think, Well, but the point what
4:46
Speaker 1: I what I mean by it is Europe needed to stop.
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Speaker 2: Relying on the United States, so they need a kick
4:51
Speaker 2: in the ass and fear that they're still not going
4:54
Speaker 2: to make it.
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Speaker 1: But yes, I agree, and Donald Trump's presidency turned out
4:57
Speaker 1: to be the kick of the ass that at least
4:59
Speaker 1: they find noticed.
5:00
Speaker 2: Donald Trump is definitely that kick in the ass. I
5:04
Speaker 2: think that's clear. I think that's clear for the Europeans,
5:07
Speaker 2: for the Canadians, for the Mexicans, for some for the
5:10
Speaker 2: remaining regime in Venezuela. I mean, my god, he represents
5:14
Speaker 2: a kick in the ass to an awful lot of people.
5:16
Speaker 2: But of course, you know, the big thing is that
5:18
Speaker 2: the uncertain We have seen the uncertainty, we've seen the risk,
5:21
Speaker 2: and he is us, right, I mean, that is that
5:24
Speaker 2: is the reason why.
5:24
Speaker 1: That's what's so. But that's not even you know, it's funny.
5:27
Speaker 1: You made it your top risk. And yet I feel
5:30
Speaker 1: like two years ago, if you had done that, it
5:32
Speaker 1: would have seen controversial, It would have been weird if
5:34
Speaker 1: we weren't the top risk. Right, shocking, Right, we are
5:37
Speaker 1: at the center of everybody else's instability.
5:40
Speaker 2: Yep, yep, yep, no questions.
5:43
Speaker 1: A weird place for America to be, yep.
5:46
Speaker 2: But in part it is the logical conclusion of decades
5:52
Speaker 2: of Americans of different stripes increasingly saying we don't like
5:56
Speaker 2: the role that we have carved out for our selfs globally,
6:01
Speaker 2: we don't really believe in it in different ways, whether
6:03
Speaker 2: it's foreign aid or promotion of rule of law and democracy,
6:08
Speaker 2: or free trade or collective security alliances, all these wars.
6:13
Speaker 2: So that that's a big piece of it, right, And
6:16
Speaker 2: then there's the domestic piece too, with two completely different
6:21
Speaker 2: worldviews housed in one country. Right. And you know when
6:26
Speaker 2: those things start to really break, when those assumptions are
6:31
Speaker 2: fundamentally questioned by a guy who is, you know, thrives
6:36
Speaker 2: on being a chaos actor, then it's not a surprise
6:41
Speaker 2: that we're.
6:41
Speaker 1: Driving that uncertain Let's start in our hemisphere and then move.
6:48
Speaker 1: So one of the things I like to correct with
6:51
Speaker 1: some of my friends on the left actually is that
6:54
Speaker 1: there hasn't been regime change in Venezuela. The regime is
6:57
Speaker 1: still in power. Yes, right, they've only extracted one individual.
7:03
Speaker 1: How do we get to individuals? Don't disparage the wife.
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Speaker 2: Like that enough?
7:11
Speaker 1: Where how do we get to a better place in
7:14
Speaker 1: Venezuela without American boots on the ground.
7:18
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, let's face it, getting to a better
7:20
Speaker 2: Venezuela with American boots on the ground might be more challenging, right,
7:24
Speaker 2: I mean, given our recent experience in Venezuela is not Iraq, right,
7:30
Speaker 2: It's not Afghanistan, It has recent experience with democracy, it
7:36
Speaker 2: doesn't have massive internal sectarian divides. There are a lot
7:41
Speaker 2: of exiled elites that would love to be able to
7:45
Speaker 2: come back, and the power asymmetries are massive with the
7:50
Speaker 2: United States right there in the hemisphere, right, So, I mean,
7:54
Speaker 2: there are lots of reasons to believe that at least
7:56
Speaker 2: in the near term, they are going to behave eve
8:00
Speaker 2: themselves more because they understand the orls they are going to.
8:06
Speaker 2: They're going to listen to the Americans on oil. They
8:10
Speaker 2: have freed a small number of political prisoners, but high
8:14
Speaker 2: level prisoners, by the way, leaders of in the opposition movement,
8:19
Speaker 2: because Marco Rubio and others told them they had to. So,
8:24
Speaker 2: you know, the early days on this are without American troops,
8:29
Speaker 2: but with the credibility and presence of all of that
8:33
Speaker 2: military capacity, and with the willingness to prod the IMF
8:39
Speaker 2: to provide some support over time and get some private
8:43
Speaker 2: sector companies with guarantees to actually back them up, that
8:50
Speaker 2: there are reasons why in the near term this will
8:53
Speaker 2: go well. The much more the problem with Venezuela is
8:59
Speaker 2: much more about when start talking about actual power sharing,
9:03
Speaker 2: which the people want, you know, Frankly, Marco and others
9:07
Speaker 2: around Trump, even if Trump doesn't care, they want it,
9:10
Speaker 2: and yet the government, the existing regime will resist that
9:16
Speaker 2: with every sinew of their body.
9:19
Speaker 1: My concern is that Trump doesn't care about the democracy piece.
9:23
Speaker 1: If the regime does what he asks, he's going to
9:25
Speaker 1: be fine with leaving them in place.
9:28
Speaker 2: Well, but I'm suggesting that that won't work right. In
9:32
Speaker 2: other words, that when you have when you have that
9:35
Speaker 2: many people in the country that now see a weaker,
9:38
Speaker 2: more vulnerable military that's been bloodied up by the US,
9:42
Speaker 2: and they overwhelmingly want their opposition in place, they will
9:46
Speaker 2: clamor for it. That when you have a lot of
9:48
Speaker 2: MAGA supporters in Mara A Lago who are themselves exiles,
9:55
Speaker 2: that's a strong community. They're going to be pushing for it.
9:58
Speaker 2: Marco and others that really did organize the TikTok on
10:06
Speaker 2: these attacks also they want it. And so I don't
10:11
Speaker 2: even though Trump Trump's the decider. Trump's got the power,
10:16
Speaker 2: he's the president, and he doesn't care. I agree he
10:19
Speaker 2: doesn't care about what kind of regime it is. But
10:22
Speaker 2: I think that he can't. He can't just ignore that issue.
10:26
Speaker 1: Do you see it? Like we help that there's elections
10:29
Speaker 1: in six months a year? What's your you know, is
10:34
Speaker 1: there anybody thinking about this? Like okay, when what's the soonest?
10:38
Speaker 1: We could actually hold national elections?
10:41
Speaker 2: Soonest is probably six months? More realistic is twelve to eighteen.
10:46
Speaker 2: And again, as they start talking about it, and it
10:50
Speaker 2: won't be the first thing they discuss, but as they
10:53
Speaker 2: get to that process, what I think we will see
10:57
Speaker 2: is an effort by the military to give on many
11:02
Speaker 2: other grounds and obfuse gate, which is what they've done before.
11:08
Speaker 2: Reasons why it can't be done soon, and here are
11:10
Speaker 2: the mechanisms, and here are some candidates we can't tolerate,
11:14
Speaker 2: and all sorts of ways to push out, water down
11:18
Speaker 2: and ensure that they are the ones that control everything.
11:22
Speaker 2: But ultimately, I'm not going to sit here and tell
11:26
Speaker 2: you a power sharing agreement is impossible. You couldn't just
11:29
Speaker 2: bring in the opposition and tell the military you're out.
11:32
Speaker 2: But then again, we all know that Paul Bremer doing
11:36
Speaker 2: that in a rock that was a disaster. Like removing
11:40
Speaker 2: the Bathists, removing the security and the military forces was
11:44
Speaker 2: what the US should have never done, never done.
11:50
Speaker 1: There are a handful of intriguing elections this year in
11:53
Speaker 1: Latin America, Columbia, Colombia is fascinating to me, in Brazil
11:58
Speaker 1: or probably the two big ones. There's Peru as well.
12:04
Speaker 1: How much will anti Americanism be part of those campaigns? Now?
12:10
Speaker 1: And you know my great fear is, look, you know,
12:14
Speaker 1: I'm I'm. I have a friend who does a lot
12:18
Speaker 1: of work in Colombia has not been a big fan
12:20
Speaker 1: of this. This political party is hopeful that the other
12:23
Speaker 1: political party comes back. And I know that a lot
12:27
Speaker 1: of American business folks feel that way. And it looks
12:32
Speaker 1: like that had been a glide path. But now I
12:34
Speaker 1: wonder does Trump and does our involvement in Venezuela spark
12:42
Speaker 1: a backlash in a Colombia spark a backlash? Yeah?
12:46
Speaker 2: No, and it doesn't. So it's a good it's a
12:48
Speaker 2: really good question, especially because we've seen that backlash change
12:53
Speaker 2: outcomes in Canada. We've seen that backlash change outcomes in
12:58
Speaker 2: Australia in both cases is and I.
13:01
Speaker 1: Would argue Lula's political standing has been strengthened due to Trump.
13:04
Speaker 2: A little bit, a little bit much less so, but
13:07
Speaker 2: a little bit definitely after Trump, you know, sort of
13:11
Speaker 2: basically said we're tariffing you because of the bull jail
13:15
Speaker 2: term that was handed down by the Supreme Court. Not
13:18
Speaker 2: not Lula, right, but but actually in Latin America, in
13:23
Speaker 2: these countries, number one issue overwhelmingly right now is domestic security,
13:31
Speaker 2: and and that plays out so bole in l Salvador
13:37
Speaker 2: is by far the most popular leader, even though he's
13:41
Speaker 2: a pro Trump guy. He's not popular because he's pro Trump.
13:43
Speaker 2: He's popular because he's actually really like wielded the fists
13:49
Speaker 2: in creating security. And one could argue he's broken a
13:53
Speaker 2: lot of eggs to make that omelet right.
13:55
Speaker 1: A lot of guys, I'll uh, you'll appreciate this. I
13:59
Speaker 1: teach a for USC here in DC. That's called how
14:03
Speaker 1: Washington works. And last semester I had a an nol
14:06
Speaker 1: Salvadorian student who said, yeah, boy, my parents and I
14:15
Speaker 1: don't speak about Bouqueta anymore. Like it was just like
14:18
Speaker 1: she said, basically, if you live in al Salvador.
14:20
Speaker 2: You love the guy.
14:21
Speaker 1: If you don't live there, you don't and you're El
14:23
Speaker 1: Salvador and you don't like the guy. It's a it's
14:25
Speaker 1: a fascinating it's.
14:26
Speaker 2: Like ninety percent local approval, and it's it's true approval, right,
14:30
Speaker 2: And it's.
14:30
Speaker 1: Just because she does. Look, it was so unsafe, right,
14:33
Speaker 1: it was so.
14:35
Speaker 2: When Maduro gets taken out, and he is not just
14:39
Speaker 2: a bad guy, but he is actually coordinating narco cartels
14:45
Speaker 2: right across the region, and he also did lead to
14:49
Speaker 2: the destabilization of a lot of countries, including Colombia because
14:53
Speaker 2: of eight million displaced Venezuelans. They are delighted to see
15:00
Speaker 2: the back of Maduro and they want security in their
15:05
Speaker 2: own countries. So I and the secondary issue is the
15:08
Speaker 2: local economy. So I don't think there's a backlash. Mexico
15:13
Speaker 2: is a different story because it's so integrated with the
15:15
Speaker 2: US and their economy is not doing well though Shanebaum
15:18
Speaker 2: is actually quite popular. But for Columbia and for Brazil,
15:22
Speaker 2: I don't actually think that the Trump factor will be
15:27
Speaker 2: determinative and either of them.
15:29
Speaker 1: Well, it's been interesting. It's sort of like I and
15:31
Speaker 1: this is where you sometimes have cross currents. There does
15:34
Speaker 1: seem to be a general move you know, and we've
15:37
Speaker 1: seen this in Latin America. It's like a windshield wiper
15:40
Speaker 1: when suddenly, you know, five countries move left, then five
15:44
Speaker 1: countries move.
15:44
Speaker 2: Right, you know, and I feel like there's a right
15:47
Speaker 2: word pull right now. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But in Columbia,
15:50
Speaker 2: I mean, Petro got into that big spat with Trump,
15:54
Speaker 2: and apparently the Trump administration was like literally had targets
15:58
Speaker 2: and they were ready to engage in the lateral strikes.
16:01
Speaker 2: And then Petro calls Trump and he pretends that like
16:05
Speaker 2: he'd been begging for that call for weeks.
16:07
Speaker 1: Yeah, and he.
16:09
Speaker 2: Made it sound as if, oh, I didn't even know
16:10
Speaker 2: Trump was gonna call me, and so thank god I
16:13
Speaker 2: wasn't laid for it. But I mean, you know, we're
16:15
Speaker 2: gonna get together and it's going to be wonderful, and
16:17
Speaker 2: you know, suddenly their buddies. Because he's been personally sanctioned
16:20
Speaker 2: by by the United States, right, and it's a problem
16:24
Speaker 2: for him. He really wanted the the other side of
16:28
Speaker 2: get the other side of that potential conflict, and I
16:31
Speaker 2: think the likelihood that his preferred candidate on the left
16:35
Speaker 2: can get through a second round is. It's there, but
16:38
Speaker 2: it's it's very low. You would expect to string.
16:41
Speaker 1: You know, you don't fear that anti Americanism could suddenly
16:44
Speaker 1: prop that left disc government.
16:46
Speaker 2: Nope, Nope, it's not playing out in any of the
16:48
Speaker 2: polls right now, not at all. And Brazil I think
16:51
Speaker 2: is going to be a close election and it's going
16:53
Speaker 2: to be Bolsonaro's kid, right it looks that way. I mean,
16:56
Speaker 2: that's just going to be a fascinating putting forward fight.
17:00
Speaker 2: And they're now thinking about who his running mate for
17:02
Speaker 2: vice president would be. But I would say they still
17:06
Speaker 2: want to see how he's going to do over the
17:07
Speaker 2: next couple months before they all line up behind him.
17:11
Speaker 2: So it's likely to be Flavio bolscenario. Keep in mind
17:15
Speaker 2: that his father, the former president, has had a lot
17:18
Speaker 2: of health issues recently, and you know, if he ends
17:23
Speaker 2: up really not being able to be a strong, live
17:28
Speaker 2: political force, things could change very quickly.
17:32
Speaker 1: How's Lula's health, He's been there a long time.
17:35
Speaker 2: Seems to be okay. I mean he's what in his
17:38
Speaker 2: eighties now, he doesn't even keep a smartphone. I mean
17:42
Speaker 2: he's like, you know, the way he does his work
17:45
Speaker 2: and the way he's briefed is so twentieth century. It's
17:48
Speaker 2: kind of shocking that he's running the largest economy in
17:51
Speaker 2: South America, but he's decided he wants to run again.
17:55
Speaker 2: I think it's criminal negligence for him to be running
17:58
Speaker 2: for another full term basically because of his age. Yeah
18:02
Speaker 2: and all of that. Yeah, absolutely, but very much that
18:04
Speaker 2: Biden situation. Biden situation, I mean all across subs are
18:08
Speaker 2: in Africa. I mean a lot of places where people
18:10
Speaker 2: should know. This is a huge issue all over Africa,
18:12
Speaker 2: that's for sure.
18:13
Speaker 1: Let's move to Claudia Shinbaum because one of the comments
18:18
Speaker 1: that didn't get a lot of traction over the last
18:20
Speaker 1: couple of weeks was when Trump just managed, matter of factly,
18:24
Speaker 1: said well, she doesn't control her own country. I'm gonna
18:27
Speaker 1: have to take care of the cartels, and you're and
18:29
Speaker 1: Shinebaum to her. She never overreacts to Trump publicly. She
18:33
Speaker 1: always she is you know, she's in that sense, she's
18:36
Speaker 1: figured out how to manage the personal relationship with him,
18:39
Speaker 1: probably better than any world leader. But I'm curious if
18:41
Speaker 1: you disagree, well.
18:43
Speaker 2: I mean, you'd argue that h J and Ping has
18:46
Speaker 2: done the best job managing the Trump relationship back and
18:51
Speaker 2: turns out that's effective. Right, But Cloudia, pound for pound,
18:56
Speaker 2: Cloudy the best job. Yeah, I think that's probably right.
18:59
Speaker 2: I mean, her throw weight is a little smaller in
19:02
Speaker 2: terms of Mexico's asymmetrical disadvantages. But I will say that,
19:07
Speaker 2: like three months ago.
19:09
Speaker 3: You know, the the scuttle but inside the White House was, yeah,
19:14
Speaker 3: we thought we might have to engage in strikes, but
19:16
Speaker 3: they're cooperating so effectively that we probably don't need to now.
19:21
Speaker 2: And that was even Stephen Miller's perspective.
19:23
Speaker 1: Right, it's my assunt, but I understand that in country.
19:27
Speaker 1: I've got a few people I've talked to that say
19:28
Speaker 1: that she seems pretty intent and that she's more serious
19:33
Speaker 1: about it than Amblo was.
19:35
Speaker 2: Yes, yes she is, and she is both in terms
19:38
Speaker 2: of the importance of her security. Bona fide is for
19:42
Speaker 2: her own popular support in terms of what she did
19:45
Speaker 2: when she was mayor of Mexico City and the corruption
19:49
Speaker 2: around the Attorney General, the Minister of Justice, excuse me,
19:52
Speaker 2: and others, which she's who she finally forced out, the
19:55
Speaker 2: chief prosecutor. And also because she understands the she's very
20:00
Speaker 2: vulnerable to the Americans if she doesn't shut down the
20:04
Speaker 2: meth labs, if she doesn't, you know, sort of capture
20:08
Speaker 2: a whole bunch of fentanyl. And they have done more,
20:11
Speaker 2: but but is more enough. They are very worried about it,
20:15
Speaker 2: and it certainly seems to me that Trump, that Marco
20:20
Speaker 2: Rubio in particular over the past week since the Venezuela
20:24
Speaker 2: operation have soured on Mexico, is getting this done. Maybe
20:30
Speaker 2: this is over confidence because of Venezuela and the focus
20:34
Speaker 2: on the Donroe doctrine. Maybe it's because there there isn't
20:38
Speaker 2: as much cooperation as they really want. Maybe it's because
20:41
Speaker 2: they're they're worried about the economy and the rest in
20:43
Speaker 2: the US. They want to show some more wins. But
20:46
Speaker 2: definitely that noise has increased.
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22:37
Speaker 1: Doesn't she have a I mean, tourism is.
22:40
Speaker 2: So important to the Mexican economy, and.
22:42
Speaker 1: The perception in this country is that Mexico is not.
22:44
Speaker 2: As not safe. Doesn't she wants Americans to believe things
22:49
Speaker 2: are safe?
22:49
Speaker 1: There Isn't that good.
22:50
Speaker 2: Ef the perception. I mean, when you think about it
22:53
Speaker 2: depends on how you pray. Sure, But I mean, do
22:55
Speaker 2: we really think that Cancun is a problem. No?
22:59
Speaker 1: And I've always been told that the reason why Cabo
23:01
Speaker 1: and Cancun aren't a problem is because the cartels own
23:03
Speaker 1: the hotels in those areas and that's the money. That's
23:07
Speaker 1: how they launder the money, and they know they don't
23:09
Speaker 1: want to kill the golden goose, so I have that's
23:12
Speaker 1: how That's how I've had folks reassure.
23:15
Speaker 2: Me about Cabo. Put it that way, okay, But tuloom,
23:18
Speaker 2: I mean, you know my Coba even Mexico City, I mean,
23:21
Speaker 2: you know, Guadalajara, I mean Wahaka. I mean the friends
23:24
Speaker 2: of mine from all walks of life, from working class
23:28
Speaker 2: to super rich, have not been you know, sort of
23:32
Speaker 2: cutting their Mexico trips because they're concerned about getting you know,
23:38
Speaker 2: sort of hauled off by the drug lords or caught
23:42
Speaker 2: in a firefight. I think it's much more of a
23:44
Speaker 2: concern for the companies that are operating in those areas,
23:49
Speaker 2: for whom you know, a shakedown is real. It's also
23:51
Speaker 2: a huge concern for the mayors and in the localities
23:56
Speaker 2: that are running who are getting gunned down. It's a
23:58
Speaker 2: huge number of political assassinations across.
24:01
Speaker 1: Especially northern in the northern part of the country. Definitely, yeah, still, yeah,
24:05
Speaker 1: I still wouldn't recommend a road trip in Mexico.
24:08
Speaker 2: No, but I look, I think the big issue is
24:11
Speaker 2: that if the United States decides to go in unilaterally
24:15
Speaker 2: with drones or with the federal allys and engages in
24:20
Speaker 2: strikes that the Mexican government is not cooperating with overtly,
24:25
Speaker 2: I think that is a redline for this government and
24:27
Speaker 2: for the US Mexico relationship.
24:30
Speaker 1: That would be a disaster. Okay, what does that look like.
24:34
Speaker 2: I think that trade relations would would take a severe hit.
24:39
Speaker 2: I think that she would. I think she'd be in
24:42
Speaker 2: very serious trouble unless she immediately hit the Americans back
24:45
Speaker 2: and said this won't be tolerated with real consequences, it
24:48
Speaker 2: would cause a break. You said that she's handled managed
24:51
Speaker 2: Trump better than anybody else pound for pound, we would
24:54
Speaker 2: stop saying that immediately.
24:57
Speaker 1: Cuba, how how can this regime survive without the help
25:02
Speaker 1: of Venezuela. How important was Maduro? Is Maduro is that
25:06
Speaker 1: regime to Cuba?
25:10
Speaker 2: So it appears that the United States, and I've only
25:14
Speaker 2: heard this in the last few hours, so I'd like
25:17
Speaker 2: to dig into it, is not going to pressure the
25:20
Speaker 2: Mexicans to stop providing oil to Cuba. Marco Rubio recognizes
25:28
Speaker 2: that he wants the regime gone, but he also knows
25:31
Speaker 2: that they are not exporting the kind of instability across
25:36
Speaker 2: the region that Venezuela has, So it doesn't appear that
25:39
Speaker 2: there is urgency. And there also isn't a plan that's
25:44
Speaker 2: been put together. Yeah, and the plan for Venezuela, which was,
25:48
Speaker 2: you know, militarily a very significant plan from an intelligence
25:52
Speaker 2: perspective too, that took about six months. So it doesn't
25:55
Speaker 2: feel unless the Cuban economy collapses, driving massive, you know,
26:01
Speaker 2: sort of unrest on the ground, this doesn't feel like
26:04
Speaker 2: something that we're going to be seeing headlines on next week.
26:07
Speaker 1: I know, over the last twenty years, the Spanish government
26:10
Speaker 1: in particular had been very helpful to Cuba, obviously the Venezuelans.
26:14
Speaker 1: I mean, it does seem as if that who invests in.
26:18
Speaker 2: Cuba these days, who has been helping them the most? Yeah, well,
26:22
Speaker 2: I mean Venezuela has been significant and Mexico has been significant.
26:28
Speaker 2: Those are the two largest countries in the region that
26:31
Speaker 2: have been propping them up. And of course, with Venezuela
26:34
Speaker 2: essentially having been blockaded and now with the oil being
26:38
Speaker 2: taken over by the United States, one assumes that that
26:43
Speaker 2: has been cut off, and it would be cut off
26:46
Speaker 2: from Mexico if the Americans demanded it. So I think
26:49
Speaker 2: it's a question of you know, the how and the when,
26:52
Speaker 2: as opposed to the weather. I can't see Trump in
26:55
Speaker 2: office for four years with Rubio as Secretary of State
26:58
Speaker 2: having taken out Maduro, allowing the Cuban regime to persist
27:02
Speaker 2: that that does not seem likely to me.
27:04
Speaker 1: And I had a friend of mine just tell me
27:06
Speaker 1: that the that the constituency that he is becoming enamored
27:11
Speaker 1: with the most are the living Bay of Pigs guys
27:15
Speaker 1: that have become a staple at mar A Lago. Now,
27:18
Speaker 1: part of that, I've always said, I think part of
27:21
Speaker 1: you know, Trump is Trump has been inaugurated as a
27:24
Speaker 1: real South Floridian at mar A Lago over the last
27:27
Speaker 1: seven years. And I don't think people understand the extent
27:31
Speaker 1: of Marco Rubio's education of Donald Trump in the world
27:34
Speaker 1: of the exile politics, and that now he is, you know,
27:38
Speaker 1: he's on a first Dame basis with all those surviving
27:40
Speaker 1: Bay of Pigs guys. And I'm with you one hundred
27:43
Speaker 1: thousand percent. He he sees that as a legacy opportunity
27:47
Speaker 1: in Cuba, looks weak enough to make it not that hard,
27:51
Speaker 1: although these things always are harder than they love.
27:53
Speaker 2: I mean, this does not mean to me that Rubio
27:56
Speaker 2: is the slam dunk for twenty twenty eight or anything.
27:59
Speaker 2: But I just I can't see once you've embraced the
28:02
Speaker 2: Donroe Doctrine as your priority region, and it's not just Trump.
28:08
Speaker 2: The National Security Strategy Document in December, you know, sort
28:12
Speaker 2: of anticipated all of this before the Venezuela operations. I
28:17
Speaker 2: don't see how you leave Cuba alone.
28:20
Speaker 1: So let me throw a question that I got the
28:22
Speaker 1: other day and I didn't have a great answer for it,
28:25
Speaker 1: which is Haiti. You know, for all of the tumult
28:28
Speaker 1: in our hemisphere, that's one place that Trump doesn't want
28:31
Speaker 1: anything to do with.
28:33
Speaker 2: Now.
28:33
Speaker 1: The person asked the question, if there were more resources
28:36
Speaker 1: that were important to us on the island of Hispaniola,
28:39
Speaker 1: would we be more engaged with what's happening on the
28:42
Speaker 1: Haitian side of the mountain. You know, look in fairness
28:48
Speaker 1: to Trump, you know, a lot of presidents haven't been
28:52
Speaker 1: able to figure out the Haitian problem.
28:55
Speaker 2: Yeah they're not. I mean, it's massive gang violence, it's
29:01
Speaker 2: massive human predation.
29:03
Speaker 1: Are we still outsourcing this to the Kenyans and hoping
29:05
Speaker 1: they can prevent?
29:06
Speaker 2: I mean, they're they're the peacekeepers on the ground. There's
29:09
Speaker 2: been some American money, some Canadian money, and some policing,
29:14
Speaker 2: but support and training, But the United States, this being
29:19
Speaker 2: right in America's backyard and Biden administration has done nothing
29:24
Speaker 2: on it. Trump administration has done nothing on it. I
29:28
Speaker 2: mean of course that the top concern is making sure
29:31
Speaker 2: that Haitians can't make it to the US and sending
29:34
Speaker 2: them back when they do. But aside from that, there's
29:36
Speaker 2: a big not our problem. And you would you one
29:40
Speaker 2: would think this would be more important in the context
29:43
Speaker 2: of the Donro doctrine.
29:44
Speaker 1: I was just gonna say, if you believe it right now,
29:48
Speaker 1: As as a South Floridian, I can tell you the
29:50
Speaker 1: Haitians don't have the political power that the Cubans do,
29:53
Speaker 1: not even close. And you know, they don't have.
29:55
Speaker 2: The business community. They're not in they're not the mara
29:58
Speaker 2: Alago members and.
29:59
Speaker 1: The Refever, if they could get into mar A Lago,
30:02
Speaker 1: perhaps people there are supposed to be elections in Haiti.
30:07
Speaker 1: The likelihood that happens this year.
30:09
Speaker 2: Seems close to zero.
30:10
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, Greenland, I'm staying geographic here, stay in
30:15
Speaker 1: a geographics stay in the hemisphere or the edge of
30:18
Speaker 1: the what is Greenland western hemisphere or not? No, no, but.
30:22
Speaker 2: It is now. It is now. That is the point.
30:27
Speaker 1: What what's the you've got to people will pay you.
30:31
Speaker 1: And I say this not in some sort of meaning
30:34
Speaker 1: like you're a you're a consulting company, and you know
30:36
Speaker 1: you're you're there to help people, Like, what's the most
30:39
Speaker 1: likely scenario here? So what's the most likely scenario of
30:42
Speaker 1: Greenland's relationship to the United States? January twentieth, twenty twenty nine.
30:52
Speaker 2: So the the likelihood of an actual US military invasion
30:59
Speaker 2: to hate Greenland strikes me as staggeringly low. That would
31:05
Speaker 2: that would end NATO. It would be incredibly believe, right,
31:10
Speaker 2: and it was incredibly unpopular in the United States. It
31:13
Speaker 2: would also be incredibly unpopular in Greenland, frankly, and you know,
31:17
Speaker 2: why would you want to deal with that? Right? But
31:19
Speaker 2: but you know, that's like saying, what's the likelihood of
31:21
Speaker 2: the Russians sending tanks into the Baltics? That's not the
31:25
Speaker 2: way they get what they want, right, They use all
31:27
Speaker 2: sorts of asymmetric warfare, and the Americans would have a
31:31
Speaker 2: lot more carrots to use, because look, what they want
31:35
Speaker 2: is to come up with a plan that Trump will
31:38
Speaker 2: approve that has you know, an information campaign and all
31:44
Speaker 2: sorts of money being thrown at them and coercion that
31:50
Speaker 2: would get the Greenlanders to want to have a referendum
31:55
Speaker 2: to leave Denmark and join the United States. Now, what
32:00
Speaker 2: is the likelihood that such a thing could be successful.
32:04
Speaker 2: We have no idea if it was, you know, held today,
32:08
Speaker 2: it would you know, get defeated very very soundly.
32:12
Speaker 1: But we have only fifty seven thousand constituents to buy off,
32:16
Speaker 1: not that many, right, you might buy them off. And
32:18
Speaker 1: it sounds like Trump thinks there's a chance to buy
32:20
Speaker 1: him off.
32:21
Speaker 2: Sure, sure he does. And he also loves the idea
32:24
Speaker 2: of painting that island, you know, Trump Landia. I mean,
32:27
Speaker 2: he's his entire life is about putting his name on stuff,
32:32
Speaker 2: and whether it was buildings in the on the Upper
32:35
Speaker 2: West Side that he doesn't own, or whether it's the
32:39
Speaker 2: Kennedy Center or whether it's Greenland. Now, now, you know,
32:45
Speaker 2: if you talk to the people in the national security
32:48
Speaker 2: space in the Trump administration, most of them will say,
32:53
Speaker 2: you can get a lot of what you need, and
32:56
Speaker 2: there are real security concerns by negotiating with Denmark and
32:59
Speaker 2: green then, but not everything. And so there is there
33:03
Speaker 2: is a little bit of a real argument here, and
33:05
Speaker 2: of course it's being developed because Trump is telling them
33:07
Speaker 2: to So for example, sure, you know, what is.
33:09
Speaker 1: That I was just going to say, what's the real
33:12
Speaker 1: because this is not He's not the first president that
33:14
Speaker 1: is one of this. There's I think we all see
33:16
Speaker 1: the strategic uh need potentially and obviously with with thanks
33:22
Speaker 1: to climate change, the Arctics is going to be a
33:24
Speaker 1: battleground for resources and all sorts of things. So I
33:28
Speaker 1: you know, the strategic need is there. But but what
33:31
Speaker 1: is it that we couldn't get from a treaty?
33:32
Speaker 2: So, I mean a few things. One the argument would
33:36
Speaker 2: be that in particular, if it comes to stationing offensive weapons,
33:41
Speaker 2: as the Russians and and even the Chinese become more assertive,
33:45
Speaker 2: aggressive and present in the area, that's something that the
33:48
Speaker 2: Greenlanders under Danish rule and with their own autonomy, would
33:54
Speaker 2: would not want that. That also be slower pro bureaucratically
34:01
Speaker 2: of getting agreements to allow you even to have defensive
34:06
Speaker 2: and intelligence. We don't have NAT outposts there now, Yeah,
34:10
Speaker 2: that is one outpost there with like one hundred and
34:12
Speaker 2: fifty people there in the Cold War, of course is
34:14
Speaker 2: more like fifteen thousands, So I mean it would be
34:16
Speaker 2: very easy to ramp it up. But there are real,
34:20
Speaker 2: albeit small and I think manageable, but still issues. And
34:24
Speaker 2: there's another issue which is kind of more existential, and
34:30
Speaker 2: it's a cute argument to use, but I get it,
34:33
Speaker 2: which is that, well, you know, how much would the
34:36
Speaker 2: Russians or Chinese believe the Americans would defend the territory
34:41
Speaker 2: of an ally as opposed to territory that belongs to themselves,
34:45
Speaker 2: and especially given that Trump is undermining the belief in
34:50
Speaker 2: US led collective security. Like you've got the Baltics that
34:53
Speaker 2: aren't convinced that America would necessarily go to bad for
34:56
Speaker 2: them if need be. So if Greenland is still a
34:59
Speaker 2: part of Denmark, well, yeah it's NATO, but would America
35:04
Speaker 2: really defend it. Where if it's America, you know they'll
35:07
Speaker 2: defend it as America. It's a weird argument because, of course,
35:10
Speaker 2: again Trump is undermining it himself. But I do kind
35:14
Speaker 2: of understand the existential logic having said all of those things, Chuck,
35:21
Speaker 2: I don't want to give the audience the wrong idea. Overwhelmingly,
35:26
Speaker 2: this is Trump deciding I have to have my name
35:29
Speaker 2: on this thing. This is a legacy issue for me.
35:31
Speaker 2: Is the most consequential American president in history. It's not
35:35
Speaker 2: like he cared about it on his first term, and
35:38
Speaker 2: those issues were all present during his first term.
35:41
Speaker 1: Right, is there a price that the Danes would say, well,
35:47
Speaker 1: we can't say no to that.
35:50
Speaker 2: This is not only panicking the Danes and the Nordics,
35:56
Speaker 2: but it's making them incredibly angry, like with Canada and
36:00
Speaker 2: unlike with Latin Americas.
36:01
Speaker 1: So it's a boomerang. It's an anti Americanism is.
36:04
Speaker 2: Causing permanent damage to the US relationship with Europe, permanent damage.
36:10
Speaker 2: The Americans throwing the Ukrainians under the bus on many instances,
36:15
Speaker 2: and the Europeans coming back and also paying for it themselves.
36:20
Speaker 2: The Americans promoting eurosceptic parties, including in Germany the AfD,
36:26
Speaker 2: which many Germans consider to be a neo Nazi party,
36:31
Speaker 2: the Greenland issue. There are so many instances where the
36:36
Speaker 2: Europeans today consider the Americans fundamentally unreliable. And I think
36:41
Speaker 2: this is going to cause permanent damage to the.
36:43
Speaker 1: Relationship it already had. I mean, yeah, there's no coming
36:48
Speaker 1: I mean and that, and I'm gonna save this to
36:50
Speaker 1: the end. But it's sort of like, it doesn't sound
36:53
Speaker 1: like a change of administrations just flips a switch.
36:55
Speaker 2: This time, not this time, not this time.
36:58
Speaker 1: All right, let's move to Iran. You know, I know
37:04
Speaker 1: that a regime falls. It's like the definition of bankruptcy
37:07
Speaker 1: first it's slowly, then it's quickly, right like we knew
37:10
Speaker 1: Syria would fall, We knew a Sod would fall, we
37:12
Speaker 1: just don't know when. And all of a sudden one day,
37:14
Speaker 1: Oh my god, as Sod's gone. Right, he's in Russia.
37:17
Speaker 1: It's over. And I have a feeling it's like this.
37:21
Speaker 1: I was in Abu Dhabi about a month ago. It's
37:24
Speaker 1: a huge Iranian diaspora there, and the optimism that the
37:28
Speaker 1: regime is going to fall was through the roof then,
37:31
Speaker 1: and this was pre protests. Do you think this regime
37:36
Speaker 1: last the calendar year?
37:37
Speaker 2: I would love to say that it does it. I'd
37:41
Speaker 2: love to see the back of this regime so incredibly
37:44
Speaker 2: repressive of its own people and exporting so much instability
37:49
Speaker 2: with bad actors around the region. Hamas has the Lah others.
37:56
Speaker 2: But it feels to me like they still have very
38:01
Speaker 2: significant capacity to repress, and I haven't yet seen cracks
38:06
Speaker 2: inside the regime itself. The Supreme Leader is incredibly old.
38:10
Speaker 2: He's mid eighties. I think he's like eighty six now.
38:13
Speaker 2: He's quite he's quite frail, he's ailing, he's had it
38:18
Speaker 2: seems like he's had cancer that he's dealing with but
38:22
Speaker 2: he's hand selected all of the top security officials, and
38:27
Speaker 2: they don't seem to be in any way backing away
38:30
Speaker 2: from him. We've seen no climb down. Despite American pressure
38:38
Speaker 2: for the IRGC, the Islamic revolution of Guard Core and
38:42
Speaker 2: the besiege the paramilitary group under them that does the
38:45
Speaker 2: head knocking and the shooting, we've seen no willingness of
38:51
Speaker 2: them to say no to orders or back away. The
38:54
Speaker 2: repression has been very extensive. And that's that's included technical
38:59
Speaker 2: press in terms of you know, shutting down electricity, shutting
39:02
Speaker 2: down the internet, and the rest and enforcements across the
39:07
Speaker 2: country despite very different regional you know makeups, ethnic makeup,
39:15
Speaker 2: and the rest in different parts of irun So and
39:19
Speaker 2: the United States, as much as Trump has said, you know,
39:22
Speaker 2: you better behavior else We're going to hit you. So far,
39:27
Speaker 2: the plans for what the US might do seem to
39:30
Speaker 2: be pretty pinpoint and symbolically, I mean, I expect at
39:35
Speaker 2: some point actually some military strikes for the US.
39:37
Speaker 1: What would that look like and what could be effective?
39:40
Speaker 2: Oh well, what it would look like and what could
39:42
Speaker 2: be effective or two different things. So one what it
39:45
Speaker 2: would look like. I mean, right now, it looks like
39:47
Speaker 2: it's going to be the US going after the police,
39:49
Speaker 2: the US going after the paramilitary forces directly, not taking
39:53
Speaker 2: out the supreme leader. I'd like to see them be
39:57
Speaker 2: a little more creative than that. You know, for exams sample,
40:01
Speaker 2: you have all of these judges that are serving the
40:05
Speaker 2: regime and are handing down sentences without any evidence, no
40:10
Speaker 2: rule of law, innocent people that are being sentenced to
40:14
Speaker 2: horrible jails, time or death, and those judges have never
40:20
Speaker 2: been targeted, and frankly they should be. They are instruments
40:24
Speaker 2: of terror in the Iranian regime. You know, the Israelis
40:27
Speaker 2: have targeted nuclear scientists. No one's after gone after the
40:31
Speaker 2: people that are actually sending civilians to their death. That
40:34
Speaker 2: strikes me is you know, you go after them, you
40:37
Speaker 2: go after some of these softer points that allow a
40:43
Speaker 2: dictatorship of theocracy to unleash terror within the country. Maybe
40:51
Speaker 2: you start to unravel it a little bit. But again,
40:53
Speaker 2: if if you were asking me to make a bet,
40:56
Speaker 2: are they gone, Are they gone in five years, Yeah,
40:59
Speaker 2: they're gone in three years probably? Are they gone in
41:01
Speaker 2: like six months? That's a harder call for me. Right
41:06
Speaker 2: now doesn't feel imminent, especially because on the ground I mean,
41:11
Speaker 2: there's a lot of support inside Iran for Razapaalabi, who's
41:17
Speaker 2: the one that's saying I want you all out there demonstrating,
41:20
Speaker 2: but there's no real organization of an opposition movement inside
41:25
Speaker 2: Iran itself.
41:29
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43:04
Speaker 1: life insurance is something you should really think about, especially
43:07
Speaker 1: if you've got a growing family. Somebody indicated to me
43:16
Speaker 1: that they thought the president was quietly. Somebody said it
43:21
Speaker 1: sort of so that the president sort of is prepared to
43:25
Speaker 1: become the Gorbacheff of Iran, and I thought, I'll believe
43:29
Speaker 1: it when I say it.
43:30
Speaker 2: I mean, he's weak. He is more of a centrist
43:36
Speaker 2: in the Iranian context than was expected when those presidential
43:39
Speaker 2: elections occurred. But I mean, he is seen as a
43:44
Speaker 2: failed figure. The economy has utterly collapsed under his rule.
43:49
Speaker 2: He engaged in a.
43:50
Speaker 1: Whole pultable water in Tehran right now.
43:54
Speaker 2: Yeah, they've got a massive water crisis in the capitol
43:59
Speaker 2: and he he was supporting behind the scenes talks with
44:03
Speaker 2: the Americans, and that's happening again through Oman and they're
44:08
Speaker 2: good offices, but the Supreme Leader has stopped anything from happening.
44:12
Speaker 2: So I don't know that the president possession would be
44:15
Speaker 2: useful in really driving a different outcome.
44:19
Speaker 1: Are we stretched a little thin right now with Venezuela,
44:22
Speaker 1: with what we're doing in Syria, with what to douce
44:25
Speaker 1: more in Iran? Would are we prepared if we wanted
44:28
Speaker 1: to do something, could we do it immediately? Or do
44:30
Speaker 1: we actually have a little bit because of this Venezuela exercise.
44:34
Speaker 2: The B two's are all been you know, they're all
44:37
Speaker 2: repositioned Diego Garcia. There's massive amount of firepower and readiness
44:43
Speaker 2: to engage in those strikes. If that's what you do.
44:45
Speaker 2: You could also send them from like Montana if you
44:47
Speaker 2: really needed to, right we did Americans have that capacity Again,
44:51
Speaker 2: if you're not talking about boots on the ground and
44:54
Speaker 2: actual regime change with an ability to execute on it.
44:57
Speaker 2: The limitations of the US military suddenly how much much less.
45:01
Speaker 1: So I don't want to like get ahead of ourselves,
45:04
Speaker 1: But what would this mean for a rock.
45:08
Speaker 2: It would mean that a significant constraint on their government
45:14
Speaker 2: and the lever that has prevented them from working more
45:19
Speaker 2: effectively with the big powers in the region would be gone.
45:25
Speaker 2: And I think that that would be a useful thing
45:28
Speaker 2: for a Rocky economic.
45:29
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, you paid a picture. It's like God,
45:32
Speaker 1: you know, if a run, if this regime went away,
45:35
Speaker 1: maybe Syria could thrive, Maybe Lebanon could thrive, Maybe I
45:38
Speaker 1: Rock could thrive. Right like feels like it's steady. I mean,
45:41
Speaker 1: are we're being too optimistic about what would happen after
45:45
Speaker 1: the fall of this regime.
45:47
Speaker 2: Well, we've seen that Saudi Arabia, you know, which we've
45:52
Speaker 2: thought of as a twenty years ago, even ten years ago,
45:57
Speaker 2: as an enormously conservative and pretty repressive monarchy, and today
46:04
Speaker 2: I mean truly revolutionary in the positive sense, for young people,
46:09
Speaker 2: for women participating in the economy, for tourism becoming a
46:13
Speaker 2: real part of GDP tourism in Saudi Arabia, like no
46:16
Speaker 2: one was talking about that ten years ago, and now
46:19
Speaker 2: it's increasingly becoming a world class destination.
46:22
Speaker 1: Still probably go to Abu Dhabi or Dubai before ryadd
46:25
Speaker 1: but still you know, go for it.
46:26
Speaker 2: But Alula is now becoming a world class must do destination,
46:30
Speaker 2: which is in Saudi Arabia, and if you haven't heard
46:33
Speaker 2: of it yet, you will within another year or two.
46:35
Speaker 2: So definitely they're putting real effort into that. And yeah,
46:41
Speaker 2: it's going to be for tourists in the region first,
46:43
Speaker 2: but then it's going to be from all over the world.
46:45
Speaker 2: So you know, I think that don't underestimate what energy,
46:49
Speaker 2: wealth and some technocrats can accomplish given level of control.
46:54
Speaker 2: And of course what you have in Saudi Arabia and
46:56
Speaker 2: the Emirates in particular, I mean cut it is tiny,
46:59
Speaker 2: but you have, you know, very strong centralized control and
47:04
Speaker 2: all you need is the ability to support a reform process,
47:08
Speaker 2: which they didn't have before. The Emiratis went first, and
47:11
Speaker 2: now the Saudis are fast following.
47:16
Speaker 1: Maybe Nan Yahoo. You know, it's interesting. I remember there's
47:22
Speaker 1: a poll right before the ceasefire which said as soon
47:25
Speaker 1: as there's a ceasefire, sixty percent of Israelis wanted him out.
47:31
Speaker 1: I don't see a path for him to be out
47:33
Speaker 1: anytime soon. But what's your sense.
47:36
Speaker 2: I think that it's going to be a very close
47:39
Speaker 2: run election. Israel is a fragmented multi party system where
47:44
Speaker 2: coalition building is extremely hard and also very opaque until
47:50
Speaker 2: after you have the votes in. We could easily He's
47:54
Speaker 2: an incredibly talented tactician in election math and management. He's
47:59
Speaker 2: also very charismatic and being able to convince people that
48:02
Speaker 2: he can give them the world and that others along that. So,
48:06
Speaker 2: I mean, it's really hard to count him out. But
48:10
Speaker 2: he could absolutely not be a part of the next
48:13
Speaker 2: government in Israel. I think that that is that is
48:17
Speaker 2: plausible as we look, are plausible this time than there
48:20
Speaker 2: has been in quite some time, probably, And and you know,
48:23
Speaker 2: the fact is that normalization with Saudi Arabia, once BB
48:27
Speaker 2: is gone is absolutely on the table. Then you can
48:31
Speaker 2: move ahead with Phase two, which BB opposes, but which
48:35
Speaker 2: you know you could actually move on.
48:38
Speaker 1: Now.
48:38
Speaker 2: The Israelis don't support a Palestinian state anymore, there is
48:41
Speaker 2: no there's no support for that in the population as
48:44
Speaker 2: a whole, but there is support for I think among
48:48
Speaker 2: the majority of the population for the peace plan that
48:53
Speaker 2: actually passed the Security Council, the American peace Plan that
48:58
Speaker 2: past the Security count This, this is probably the most
49:00
Speaker 2: improbable foreign policy win by the United States in the
49:05
Speaker 2: first year of Trump, because the US went from being
49:07
Speaker 2: completely isolated by pretty much everyone for supporting a war
49:14
Speaker 2: that was considered ethnic cleansing by the vast majority of
49:18
Speaker 2: the world's governments and populations, with massive humanitarian damage and
49:22
Speaker 2: tens of thousands of Palestinians killed kids, right, all huge
49:26
Speaker 2: humanitarian outrage. And then suddenly Trump got all the countries
49:30
Speaker 2: in the region together and during the United Nations and
49:34
Speaker 2: said We're going to make a ceasefire happen. And everyone
49:38
Speaker 2: passes it in the Security Council except the Russians and
49:41
Speaker 2: Chinese who abstain.
49:43
Speaker 1: You know, it's fascinating about Trump with this. I've said this.
49:46
Speaker 1: You know, he's the last person you'd want to negotiate
49:49
Speaker 1: with Europe, but he might be the only person you
49:51
Speaker 1: want negotiating in the Middle East. In a weird way,
49:54
Speaker 1: his style, his transactional nature. Look, I don't think he
49:57
Speaker 1: cares about BB, and BB's gonna find this out. And
50:02
Speaker 1: but in a weird way, he speaks the same language,
50:07
Speaker 1: and and he's it works there. It doesn't work in
50:10
Speaker 1: a lot of other.
50:11
Speaker 2: Parts of the world, but he's so popular there. Weirdly
50:13
Speaker 2: went to the Kanesset and spoke there. I mean, the
50:17
Speaker 2: ovations that he was getting popular from the not it's
50:21
Speaker 2: not even close. I mean, he's unpopular, and rightfully so.
50:25
Speaker 2: But Trump is wildly popular, very popular across because he's
50:28
Speaker 2: delivered for them. He's the one that moved the American
50:32
Speaker 2: embassy to Jerusalem after so many presidents Democrat Republican promised
50:35
Speaker 2: and then didn't deliver. He's the one that recognized the
50:39
Speaker 2: goal on Heights as part of Israel, which another president,
50:43
Speaker 2: other presidents wouldn't do. So he has delivered for the israelis.
50:48
Speaker 1: No, which is why he he alone, might be the
50:51
Speaker 1: person which may in its own way, why the world.
50:55
Speaker 2: Sort OF's like, Okay, you can get this done, go
50:57
Speaker 2: do it right. Yeah, Being clearly he was more more
51:01
Speaker 2: capable of pressuring Israel when he felt like it, and
51:05
Speaker 2: he did.
51:08
Speaker 1: This to China.
51:09
Speaker 2: Will this be like that kind of foreign policy victory
51:11
Speaker 2: in his legacy not? I think not. If if bb wins,
51:15
Speaker 2: if he's he's part of the coalition because I think
51:18
Speaker 2: that again, what Trump really wants is the Saudi normalization,
51:23
Speaker 2: and I's gone, you can't do that until you end
51:27
Speaker 2: the Israeli occupation of guys that you create some reconstruction.
51:31
Speaker 2: I don't think it has to be a state, but
51:32
Speaker 2: there has to be some kind of self governance with
51:36
Speaker 2: security provided by outsiders but not Israel, and that just
51:41
Speaker 2: I don't think that can happen as long as BB
51:43
Speaker 2: is there. And let's also keep in mind that the
51:46
Speaker 2: settlements in the West Bank are expanding and BB's far
51:50
Speaker 2: right allies are pushing that and not Yahoo is supporting it.
51:55
Speaker 1: Yep. I don't know how you unwind that.
52:00
Speaker 2: So that I think that that those are facts on the.
52:02
Speaker 1: Ground, and I don't know it's a I've been in
52:06
Speaker 1: plenty of conversations with a certain monarch who touches that
52:11
Speaker 1: West Bank. I mean some things, the toothpastes out of
52:14
Speaker 1: the tube.
52:15
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, I mean, how many millions of Palestinians are
52:18
Speaker 2: living in Jordan now and the right of return, Yeah,
52:22
Speaker 2: that is never happening. Remember there was a deal that
52:25
Speaker 2: Jared Broker that got you before the Abraham Accords, that
52:29
Speaker 2: I mean was a lot less territory for the Palestinians
52:33
Speaker 2: than they would have had with the previous Camp David accords.
52:37
Speaker 2: And yet you know was couldn't get done, non starter
52:42
Speaker 2: for the Palestinians, and still reflected much more than they
52:45
Speaker 2: have now. And that's the problems, the power asymmetries between
52:49
Speaker 2: the Palestinians and the Israelis, and between the entire axis
52:53
Speaker 2: of resistance in the Israelis, including Iran and the Israelis.
52:56
Speaker 2: The Israelis have the military capabilities and the wherewithal.
53:00
Speaker 1: No they're going to be able to dictate the terms
53:02
Speaker 1: of the surrender.
53:03
Speaker 2: It's funny. Ant Yahoo just came out today, I don't
53:05
Speaker 2: know if you saw that and said he really wants
53:07
Speaker 2: to end the Israeli reliance on all of the American
53:13
Speaker 2: foreign aid in the next ten years. He doesn't want
53:15
Speaker 2: any more defense support. He wants the belief and the
53:19
Speaker 2: support of the American people the American government, but he
53:22
Speaker 2: doesn't want the money. I mean, I will believe that
53:25
Speaker 2: when it happens. But it's interesting because he understands that
53:29
Speaker 2: the relying on the American taxpayers has been such an
53:32
Speaker 2: incredible populous push in the US, and the US has
53:36
Speaker 2: ended that for you know, almost.
53:39
Speaker 1: Everybody else around them phebe if BB Well, nobody's done
53:42
Speaker 1: more damage Daser's reputation in the United States than Bbnanya
53:47
Speaker 1: left and right for we can say some of it.
53:50
Speaker 1: He's on him for sure. Whatever it is, he has
53:52
Speaker 1: not helped the situation, particularly in.
53:55
Speaker 2: His very divisive figure.
53:57
Speaker 1: Yeah, particularly, and I think how he handled let's move
54:01
Speaker 1: to Ukraine. Yeah, it feels as if, let me ask you,
54:10
Speaker 1: this is Trump going to be fine if the Europeans
54:13
Speaker 1: take the lead in helping the Ukrainians. And does he
54:15
Speaker 1: just sort of has he given up on Putin? Because
54:18
Speaker 1: I get the sense he's thinking about giving up on Putin.
54:21
Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, but you probably would have had that
54:23
Speaker 2: sense occasionally on several occasions over the last six months. Right,
54:28
Speaker 2: He's he's kind of moved in that direction, and then
54:31
Speaker 2: he backs off. He does ready to hit the Ukrainians
54:34
Speaker 2: again because they're weak and see if you can get
54:36
Speaker 2: more out of them. He wants to end the war.
54:38
Speaker 2: He's failed to end the war. It's mostly because the
54:41
Speaker 2: Russians are giving him nothing. He's put a little bit
54:45
Speaker 2: of pressure on Russia, but far more pressure on the Ukrainians.
54:49
Speaker 2: But the interesting thing is that the Europeans are now
54:52
Speaker 2: spending all the money. So for Trump to cut off Ukraine, well,
54:58
Speaker 2: that would have to tell the America can military industrial complex,
55:03
Speaker 2: you are no longer allowed to sell weapons to the Europeans.
55:07
Speaker 1: Well wait a minute, but intelligence sharing, intelligence sharing still happening, right, yeah, yeah,
55:12
Speaker 1: But I mean if that were cut off, that would
55:15
Speaker 1: be a big deal.
55:16
Speaker 2: Not as small it would it would absolutely it is
55:19
Speaker 2: less of a complete game changer than having the ammunition
55:25
Speaker 2: and having the missiles and all the rest. But the
55:28
Speaker 2: reality is that the United States is going to continue
55:33
Speaker 2: to provide those weapons. They're going to continue to allow
55:36
Speaker 2: the Europeans to buy them and transfer them to Ukraine,
55:39
Speaker 2: and that allows the Ukrainians to continue to fight. And
55:41
Speaker 2: that's a pretty big deal. So the Americans are going
55:45
Speaker 2: to continue to be complicit, fully complicit in Ukraine's defense,
55:50
Speaker 2: and as long as that is true, you can't really
55:53
Speaker 2: have a US Russia deal. So Trump has kind of
55:55
Speaker 2: been cut off by the Europeans. The Europeans have bought
55:59
Speaker 2: themselves a seat at the table. They bought themselves a
56:02
Speaker 2: veto on Trump's ability to drive full capitulation of the Ukrainians,
56:09
Speaker 2: and that forces Trump to squeeze the Russians a little
56:13
Speaker 2: bit more if he wants to try to get a ceasefire,
56:15
Speaker 2: like he has on telling the Indians to stop buying
56:19
Speaker 2: Russian oil or else there won't be a US India
56:24
Speaker 2: trade deal. And Mukesh Ambani in reliance just stopped buying
56:28
Speaker 2: Russian crude in the last few weeks for example. So
56:32
Speaker 2: it's it's meaningful, it's it's causing some some pain to
56:35
Speaker 2: the Russians.
56:37
Speaker 1: What's some you know, we've we've there's been a lot
56:40
Speaker 1: of speculation that that that the longer this war goes,
56:43
Speaker 1: that eventually it would create internal descent in Russia. In Russia,
56:49
Speaker 1: you know, you hear anecdotal we'll see a report here
56:52
Speaker 1: or there. One would assume that now more people know
56:57
Speaker 1: somebody killed in this war than they did yesterday, day
57:00
Speaker 1: and the day before, et cetera. Yeah, what's your sense
57:03
Speaker 1: in your sources of sort of of of the level
57:08
Speaker 1: of discouragement in the Russian populace over this war not.
57:12
Speaker 2: Seeing anything meaningful. I mean, we've seen a couple of
57:17
Speaker 2: saw one former general that came out publicly and talked
57:21
Speaker 2: about what a kind of disaster this was. The sort
57:23
Speaker 2: of thing that you hear some people say internally but
57:25
Speaker 2: never publicly. That was a little surprising some of the
57:28
Speaker 2: bloggers who are quite patriotic talking about the fact that
57:32
Speaker 2: the Russian military is not performing as well as it
57:35
Speaker 2: should for examples a little that.
57:37
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's sometimes more criticism from his right, you haven't
57:41
Speaker 1: been strong enough, you haven't been aggressive enough.
57:43
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, but within the population not so much. Now
57:46
Speaker 2: the economy I think less about the Russians that are
57:49
Speaker 2: getting killed, although there are a lot of them. They're
57:52
Speaker 2: not from Moscow, they're not from Petersburg. They're from you know,
57:55
Speaker 2: sort of areas that are going to cause much less trouble,
57:59
Speaker 2: and they're prisoners.
58:00
Speaker 1: That's that was obviously done on purpose, right, he doesn't
58:04
Speaker 1: want people at Moscow or Saint Petersburg to get first
58:07
Speaker 1: time glimpses of But I do.
58:08
Speaker 2: Think the Russian economy is starting to take more of
58:11
Speaker 2: a hit as a consequence of low oil prices and
58:17
Speaker 2: the squeeze from all of these sanctions, especially the energy sanctions.
58:22
Speaker 2: So it does. I do think it matters, But I
58:25
Speaker 2: also think that ultimately the Ukrainians are having a harder
58:29
Speaker 2: time of it in terms of maintaining this level of fighting,
58:32
Speaker 2: and I think that the Europeans are having a harder
58:36
Speaker 2: time if we look over the next two three years,
58:37
Speaker 2: the fact that everything you've asked me about Greenland, everything
58:41
Speaker 2: we've talked about America squeezing the Europeans as well. If
58:44
Speaker 2: you're Putin, if I'm advising Putin, I'm telling him double
58:47
Speaker 2: down on pressure in Europe because you concause maybe your
58:50
Speaker 2: big crag, Yeah, you might be able to crack.
58:53
Speaker 1: Well, that's an interesting is there? Who of our By the.
59:00
Speaker 2: Way, I'm sorry, but I've got I'm going to have
59:03
Speaker 2: to go in like four minutes.
59:04
Speaker 1: Just okay, all right, let me get you out of here.
59:06
Speaker 1: On two questions. Question one is this, who's the most
59:10
Speaker 1: secure leader in Europe right now? In the sort of
59:13
Speaker 1: the western part of your you know, the sort of
59:17
Speaker 1: the G seven allies?
59:20
Speaker 2: The most secure? I mean in the Italian Maloney is
59:24
Speaker 2: probably the most popular among the major economies right now,
59:30
Speaker 2: and France seems like it's a mess. Italian governments used
59:34
Speaker 2: to fall apart every few months.
59:35
Speaker 1: Right now, that's that the French National Assembly says, hey,
59:39
Speaker 1: we hold our champagne, We'll do this now.
59:41
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the Macron's not going anywhere because the
59:45
Speaker 2: general elections are twenty twenty seven. Everyone's going to wait
59:48
Speaker 2: for that. But they've been you know, governments that they've had,
59:50
Speaker 2: like multiple prime ministers that mess. Yeah, yeah, I mean
59:54
Speaker 2: Germany is I guess you'd say Germany is more stable
59:57
Speaker 2: because you know, grand coalition multi party system. Understand they
1:00:03
Speaker 2: benefit from the EU, and yet the parties in that
1:00:08
Speaker 2: system disagree on so much that it's become very dysfunctional.
1:00:12
Speaker 2: And as the German economy continues to underperform, the AfD
1:00:18
Speaker 2: on the right and dur Linka on the left continue
1:00:22
Speaker 2: to do quite well. This year they're going to be
1:00:24
Speaker 2: five state elections in Germany. I expect the far right
1:00:27
Speaker 2: is going to do very well. So, I mean, there's
1:00:30
Speaker 2: no great answer for that question, is what I'm telling you.
1:00:33
Speaker 1: All right, And one year from now is going to
1:00:36
Speaker 1: be twenty twenty seven, and.
1:00:37
Speaker 2: The Greece is probably the country that's doing the best
1:00:40
Speaker 2: because they've had post Grexit, they've had great, great, strong government.
1:00:45
Speaker 1: It's fascinating to see the southern European countries have an
1:00:48
Speaker 1: economic boom after having such a disaster and have to
1:00:51
Speaker 1: be built out by the Germans. Yeah, back in that
1:00:54
Speaker 1: long ago, very quickly. Next year is supposed to be
1:00:57
Speaker 1: the year that China takes Taiwan. Where are we at?
1:01:01
Speaker 1: What is your expectation and do you expect Donald Trump
1:01:04
Speaker 1: to stand in the way.
1:01:06
Speaker 2: I think that the Chinese and the Americans have both
1:01:12
Speaker 2: understand that a level of stabilization of that relationship is
1:01:16
Speaker 2: good for them after the big fights that they had
1:01:19
Speaker 2: on tariffs and export controls and licensing last year. And
1:01:24
Speaker 2: I think that means that Chinese understand that an invasion
1:01:28
Speaker 2: of Taiwan would be really, really bad. If Americans are
1:01:33
Speaker 2: screwing up in so many areas long term, don't get
1:01:35
Speaker 2: in their way and you know, make hay in other places.
1:01:40
Speaker 2: So I could see the Chinese testing Taiwan on certain
1:01:44
Speaker 2: issues like bigger exercises and maybe a coastguard boarding a ship,
1:01:50
Speaker 2: you know sort of thing, maybe some political and economic pressure,
1:01:55
Speaker 2: but not that's very different from an invasion. Nothing that
1:01:59
Speaker 2: would be an action enforcing event or an embarrassment for
1:02:04
Speaker 2: the US administration.
1:02:05
Speaker 1: But if we're embracing sphere of influence in the Western hemisphere,
1:02:09
Speaker 1: how is that? How does Beijing not see that as
1:02:11
Speaker 1: a right?
1:02:13
Speaker 2: I mean we're on the one hand, we are. On
1:02:15
Speaker 2: the one hand, the Western Hemisphere is not the limit
1:02:18
Speaker 2: of American ambitions in the world. It is a prioritization.
1:02:22
Speaker 2: On the other hand, American military dominance in the Western
1:02:27
Speaker 2: Hemisphere does not relate easily with Chinese commercial dominance with
1:02:33
Speaker 2: most of the countries outside of the US and Canada
1:02:39
Speaker 2: and Mexico, and that's not going to change anytime soon.
1:02:42
Speaker 2: So I think the sphere of influence argument is overstated.
1:02:47
Speaker 1: Ian bremer Man, I always appreciate this steward to force that.
1:02:51
Speaker 2: Thanks a lot of fun to do. Let me do.
1:02:54
Speaker 1: I love traveling the world with you. Who knows someday
1:02:57
Speaker 1: we met actually do it in person. Good luck in Davos.
1:02:59
Speaker 1: It'd be a lot of my fun on jeeus. The
1:03:00
Speaker 1: fact that Trump goes to Davos is that clearly that
1:03:02
Speaker 1: an American president goes.
1:03:04
Speaker 2: Oh well, I mean the sense that the Americans are
1:03:06
Speaker 2: going to be meeting with so many different leaders around
1:03:08
Speaker 2: the world. The communication is good, but if you watch
1:03:11
Speaker 2: how the how the heads of state and how the
1:03:13
Speaker 2: CEOs comport themselves publicly with him, it is very different
1:03:17
Speaker 2: from the way they talk privately. And that is a
1:03:19
Speaker 2: big part of the problem.
1:03:21
Speaker 1: Oh well, that's why we have you and your tremendous
1:03:23
Speaker 1: newsletter that is available for free. Even it's it's tremendous
1:03:27
Speaker 1: G zero. Uh and boy you have said we live
1:03:30
Speaker 1: in a G zero world. Yeah, well we're there now. Congrats,
1:03:34
Speaker 1: now we are there now.
1:03:35
Speaker 2: Thanks Chuck, good brother.