Latest / The Fourcast / Hungary Election: The blueprint for beating the far right?
Transcript
- 0:00People were partying, cars were honking, strangers greeted each
- 0:05other, gave out high fives. The first thing you will see
- 0:08among far right allies of Orban in Europe is a distancing from
- 0:14Trump and Vance and the MAGA movement that clearly isn't
- 0:17going to work for them. And Europe needs to have more
- 0:20confidence in its capacity and its ability to stand up to the
- 0:23US administration and do things that it believes are
- 0:25fundamentally in the European interest.
- 0:27And I really hope that, yeah, this time the new, new
- 0:31government build back democracy rather than, you know,
- 0:36entrenching their own powers. Welcome to the forecast.
- 0:44I'm Matt Frey in Budapest today. I'm here because of the historic
- 0:49elections that delivered a crushing result not just for
- 0:53Viktor Orban last night, but also for nationalist populism in
- 0:57Europe and around the world, you might say, take note, George
- 1:00Maloney, Marine Le Pen and Donald Trump.
- 1:02So Viktor Orban was defeated and the opposition, led by Peter
- 1:07Maggio won a 2/3 majority in parliament.
- 1:11This is crucial because it actually allows Maja to govern.
- 1:15Remember, it was the 2/3 majority that Orban got in 2010
- 1:19that allowed him to change so many institutions, the rule of
- 1:22law, the judiciary, etcetera, everything that went into his
- 1:25concept of illiberal democracy. Well, it turns out that even in
- 1:30a liberal democracy has elections and they can be lost
- 1:32by the incumbent. And I have to say Orban did bow
- 1:35out early and gracefully last night.
- 1:38So how important was this? Why did it happen?
- 1:41What are the lessons for Europe and the rest of the world?
- 1:44I'm joined by Midge Rachman, who is a political analyst, and by
- 1:48Slidzad Tizzad, who's a Hungarian journalist and this
- 1:51information expert. Welcome, gentlemen, to you both.
- 1:54Cesar, let me start with you. I got very little sleep last
- 1:57night. The vibe on the streets of
- 1:59Budapest was kind of World Cup victory meets regime change.
- 2:02How was it for you? Yeah, it was a festive.
- 2:06It reminded me of 2016 when the Hungarian football team did
- 2:11quite well in the European Championships.
- 2:13So similar scenes played out on the streets of Budapest.
- 2:18I actually logged the home from the from the office and like
- 2:22people were parking, cars were honking, strangers greeted each
- 2:27other, gave out high fives. So, so really it was a jubilant
- 2:32mood very much different from the previous elections where,
- 2:36you know, even though Budapest always voted kind of majority
- 2:41for the for the opposition, but like the national results were
- 2:46so, so bad for the previous opposition parties that it was
- 2:51very despondent vibes in Budapest.
- 2:55But this time it was totally different and kind of now the
- 2:59rest of the country, at least to some extent, went with the
- 3:03capital city. And why do you think the
- 3:06opposition led by Peter Magia, who of course was a fetus
- 3:10insider, I mean, he was a regime guy until he wasn't.
- 3:14Why do you think they managed to do it this time?
- 3:16First of all, now they were the only credible alternative, the
- 3:22only real opposition party with with chances of success, I would
- 3:28say. And like precisely the fact that
- 3:32he is a former fetus insider and and has nothing to do with the
- 3:38all the opposition, so to say, which very much discredited
- 3:42itself, I think had him tremendously.
- 3:46But of course it's it's not one factor that can explain this.
- 3:51So the economic situation changed also his his personal
- 3:57style. And I would say a very good
- 4:00campaign had and yeah, like fidasis campaign and fidasis
- 4:05communication didn't work as well as before.
- 4:10And and also the, the disinformation campaigns, which
- 4:15which they pretty much used this time as well had presumably less
- 4:22effect than in 22, also because it pretty much centered around
- 4:27the war in Ukraine. And now I think that the
- 4:29salience of the issue in in people's mind were much less
- 4:35than it was in 2022 or even in 2024 before the the European
- 4:40parliamentary elections. I mean, Midge, one of the things
- 4:42that really struck me was that Orban kept going on and on in
- 4:46his election rallies, you know, in his messages on TV, in his
- 4:49posters about the link between Zelensky and Peter Majia.
- 4:54And, you know, he did the same thing four years ago.
- 4:57And it worked then because the Ukraine war had just started.
- 5:00People who were terrified of it. It didn't seem to work this
- 5:03time. And it seemed like a really odd
- 5:04choice for a campaign message. What do you think, Rich?
- 5:07I think it showed us that Fidesz is totally out of ideas.
- 5:11They flogged the Ukraine horse as much as they could, but as
- 5:15you say, it didn't really give them any any meaningful return.
- 5:20I think people saw through the lies.
- 5:22I think Maya was very effective as a credible conservative
- 5:28candidate, as as you said in the beginning of former FIT, as
- 5:30insider at exposing the rock within the governance and the
- 5:35administration, and was very effective at holding Orbanta
- 5:40account for the sluggish economy, the poor growth
- 5:42outlook, the fact people's living standards have been
- 5:45reversing compared to regional peers.
- 5:48And so in that context, where the population is concerned
- 5:51about corruption, they're concerned about living
- 5:53standards. The Ukraine issue I think felt
- 5:56incredibly abstract and obviously simply didn't work for
- 5:59them. I mean, I wonder if you're
- 6:00Georgie Maloney, who has quite a pragmatic understanding of the
- 6:04limits of her populist appeal, or if you're Marine Le Pen,
- 6:07who's trying, or Jordan Badella, who are trying to get into power
- 6:10in the French presidential election, or indeed the Afd in
- 6:12Germany. What are the lessons that you
- 6:15can learn from Viktor Orban's demise?
- 6:18I think most important, Matt, I think, will be lack of political
- 6:23space for MAGA in particular, to interfere in European election
- 6:28cycles going forward. You'll remember when the
- 6:30National Security Strategy from the US State Department was
- 6:34published last year, Member states in Europe, in Brussels,
- 6:36officials were quivering in their boots at the fear and the
- 6:40concern of explicit U.S. government, electoral
- 6:43interference in domestic politics in the member states.
- 6:47And I think what we've seen in Hungary and we saw in Greenland
- 6:50as well, these things just haven't worked.
- 6:53And so I think the first thing you will see among far right
- 6:55allies or Forban in Europe is a distancing from Trump and Vance
- 7:01and the MAGA movement. And that clearly isn't going to
- 7:04work for them domestically. And then I suspect what we will
- 7:08begin to see on the Ukraine question as well is perhaps a
- 7:11bit more constructive opposition, a recognition, as I
- 7:15say, that flogging that Ukraine horse may not deliver a return
- 7:19when voters are more concerned about issues around cost of
- 7:22living in to some extent, migration.
- 7:24Sliat I mean, the Afd and indeed Nigel Farage in the UK have
- 7:29already been putting some distance between themselves and
- 7:32Donald Trump ever since the beginning of his war of choice
- 7:35in Iran. And they've kind of realised
- 7:38that actually with rising petrol prices and a general sense of
- 7:41chaos in the Middle East that, you know, there's a real problem
- 7:44there. But at the same time as they
- 7:47were realising that, we had JD Vance appearing in Budapest for
- 7:51two days on the campaign trail last week, you know, when you
- 7:55should have been dealing with the Middle East, you might argue
- 7:58campaigning on behalf of Orban. He appeared on the stage next to
- 8:01him. Donald Trump even rang into the
- 8:03rally at one stage and on a crackly line you could hear
- 8:06Donald Trump say I support Victor 100%, etcetera, etcetera.
- 8:10Was that the kiss of death for Orban?
- 8:12I mean, I, I wouldn't say that was the decisive issue, but
- 8:17definitely he didn't try to distance himself at all from
- 8:23Trump. Trump, quite the opposite.
- 8:25And on top of that, like what many analysts say right now is,
- 8:31is the style of his campaign. And his personal style also
- 8:36changed to a kind of MAGA thing. So for example, he, he appeared
- 8:42in in many interviews with like trash celebs, reality stars,
- 8:49which didn't really fit well with his, you know, statement
- 8:55image. He he tried to imitate Trump to
- 8:58some extent. This strategy is like credited
- 9:04to Balaj Orban, his campaign manager, but looks like it
- 9:10didn't work at all. And on the specific question of
- 9:14of Iran, there was an interesting moment in this
- 9:18campaign. You know, basically the whole
- 9:21Fidus message was that opposition would drag us into
- 9:25the Ukraine war and, you know, Hungarian soldiers would be sent
- 9:29to Ukraine. And then one journalist asked
- 9:32the minister, what if Trump asked the Hungarian government
- 9:37to to send the troops to Iran? And he replied we would to think
- 9:41about it then. So he didn't say clearly that
- 9:45it's out of the out of the question and it really
- 9:48contradicted the whole campaign message of fetus.
- 9:53Mitch, I mean, is there a general lesson to be learnt here
- 9:56that those people in European politics who don't like the, you
- 10:01know, the Christian nationalist, populist right have often in
- 10:05recent years felt almost as if they were trapped, that this was
- 10:08an inevitable momentum, that they would sweep the ball, that,
- 10:11you know, liberal Europe was finished and was going to be
- 10:14squashed by illiberal Europe? There is nothing inevitable
- 10:17about this insurgency of the far right and I do think again
- 10:22talking in particular about the role of the US administration as
- 10:25we think about very important elections in Europe next year.
- 10:29Poland, Italy, France, the Big 1 presidential election, Jordan
- 10:33Bardella with 33% of the popular vote in absolute pole position
- 10:38compared to the political centre.
- 10:40It's in that context I think centrist parties need to have
- 10:43more confidence and Europe needs to have more confidence in its
- 10:46capacity and its ability to stand up to the US
- 10:49administration and do things that it believes are
- 10:51fundamentally in the European interest.
- 10:53And I think what Peter Meyer has done, combating both populist
- 10:59nationalist forces globally, JD Vans, Trump, Putin, Fizzo,
- 11:03Marine Le Pen and her reasomblement national allies,
- 11:07in the context of a heavily gerrymandered and electoral
- 11:11system that favoured Fidesz to deliver a 2/3 majority, should
- 11:14absolutely give confidence to centrist parties all over Europe
- 11:18that they have the wherewithal to confront these forces and do
- 11:21so effectively. Peter Maggio, he is anti
- 11:24immigration, you know, ideologically he is definitely
- 11:28on the right and I wouldn't even say on the centre right.
- 11:31He's on the right. He's certainly not on the left.
- 11:34I mean, if you want to win an election these days, do you have
- 11:36to be strong and tough on immigration, wherever your kind
- 11:40of economic policies may lie, Mitch?
- 11:42You do not. But I just I think we need to
- 11:44contextualise Major properly. And by that I mean what I think
- 11:48we will see from him in Europe now is a position that is taken
- 11:53by many member states across the whole gambit of issues.
- 11:56You're right, he's not a fan of Ukraine a session and he will
- 12:00fight Hungary's corner, but that is not dissimilar to the
- 12:03position of Macron or Tusk or any other mainstream member
- 12:07states. So I think what you have in my
- 12:09yard is a centrist, right leaning but mainstream
- 12:15politician that will much more easily fit into that broader
- 12:19European consensus. Whereas you say correctly and I
- 12:21agree immigration and cost of living are very prominent
- 12:25issues, but he's not on the political extreme and he
- 12:28certainly will not be a vector for Russian and Chinese
- 12:33influence within the Union, which was the explicit position
- 12:37and goal and strategy of the urban government.
- 12:40That's not what we're going to see with him.
- 12:42And so I do think at the European level, this is a game
- 12:45changer. It's a fundamental reorientation
- 12:49of politics in Hungary that will allow, I think, and enable
- 12:52Europe to be a much more effective geopolitical players,
- 12:56certainly when it comes to supporting Ukraine.
- 12:59See that, I mean, it's, it's struck me as really weird that
- 13:01that Orban should be going on and on about Ukraine.
- 13:04As I've said before, he didn't mention Vladimir Putin by name,
- 13:07but it's obvious that this administration here, the
- 13:10outgoing one, was very friendly to Moscow and was seen by many,
- 13:14I think rightly as Moscow's spanner in the EU works.
- 13:18Orban famously changed his mind for a Ukraine, you know, a
- 13:21package of €90 billion at the beginning of the year.
- 13:25He managed to block that. And I'm assuming that will now
- 13:28be unblocked. But why do you think someone who
- 13:31seemed to have a sort of finger on the on the on the patriotic
- 13:34pulse very effectively for years?
- 13:37We're talking about Orban here. When was so friendly with Russia
- 13:40when the the trauma of the 1956 uprising and how the Soviets
- 13:45crushed it is so prevalent in people's minds that one of the
- 13:49most prevalent slogans last night was F of Russia and Russia
- 13:53Go home. I didn't get it.
- 13:55Yeah, I think it's the $1,000,000 question why he
- 13:59started this Russian friendly politics like back around 2014
- 14:05with the, you know, nuclear plant built by Russian companies
- 14:11that I think after a while he realised, or at least he
- 14:15believed that this fits well into his overall politics and
- 14:21overall ideology, anti EU, anti LGBTQ, you know, the demise of
- 14:27of the West and it, it did the work in 2022 in the aftermath of
- 14:32the full scale invasion. So I think in a in a way, they
- 14:38became the victims of their own previous success because he
- 14:43believed they believed too much in the Russia Ukraine war, you
- 14:49know, angle of campaign and continued this time, even though
- 14:54the the situation now is completely different and and
- 14:59it's not on people's minds so much.
- 15:02Also people could see that, OK, four years have passed, many
- 15:06European countries supported Ukraine and nobody was dragged
- 15:10into the war. So maybe it's not so believable
- 15:13anymore. I mean, when you look at this
- 15:15extraordinary alliance of, you know, Donald Trump, Viktor
- 15:18Orban, Benjamin Netanyahu, who by the way, he's visited Hungary
- 15:22even when he hasn't been allowed to or couldn't visit other
- 15:24European countries, and of course Vladimir Putin.
- 15:28What combines them seems to be this infatuation, especially
- 15:32with Putin, that he is anti woke, anti LGBTQ plus rights,
- 15:38you know, anti political correctness.
- 15:41Do you think we sometimes underestimate the power of this
- 15:45political force, Mitch, in global politics that seems to
- 15:49override, you know, national security, economic interest, you
- 15:53know, the culture wars or this aspect of them is immensely
- 15:56powerful, or certainly was until yesterday.
- 15:59Yes, the map beyond beyond the culture wars.
- 16:02Orban, as you know, was a was a model and a template for
- 16:07illiberal democracy, constraining the judiciary,
- 16:12controlling the media, establishing A kleptocratic
- 16:15regime. As you know, Europe has not
- 16:17dispersed over billions and billions of EUR mapped to the
- 16:22Hungarians because of concerns about that money not being used
- 16:27for the purposes for which it was designed.
- 16:29And so I think beyond beyond the culture wars and LGBTQ and being
- 16:33tough on immigration, there's an entire system here that Orban
- 16:36created that I think, you know, he was the spiritual godfather.
- 16:40And that I think was something that many leaders all over the
- 16:44world were looking to emulate. And so the question now I think
- 16:47is how sustainable is that model of governance going forward?
- 16:52Can can centrist forces find their mojo and come back with a
- 16:57bit more fervor and a bit more momentum in light of the result
- 17:00that we saw overnight? That's absolutely, I think, the
- 17:03question when it comes to the French presidential election,
- 17:05but it's a question being asked in Brussels and all capitals
- 17:08across Europe this morning. The, I mean, the other thing
- 17:10about Orban that he was so kind of good at and and gallingly
- 17:15good at was railing against the European Union.
- 17:18And one of the other election slogans was the evil axis of
- 17:21Brussels and Kiev. You know, there were pictures of
- 17:25Orzela von der Leyen looking like, you know, like a drugs
- 17:28pusher everywhere. I mean, she looked really,
- 17:30really rather bad in these posters.
- 17:33At the same time, he was very good at using EU funds to
- 17:35feather his countries and his own nest while hollowing out the
- 17:39institution. I mean, an extraordinary thing
- 17:41to do really. Has that now run its course?
- 17:44And I think so because I think map the data doesn't lie, right.
- 17:47If you look at GDP, any key economic metric, GDP per capita,
- 17:52economic growth outlook, Hungary's performance during the
- 17:56pandemic, the inflation outlook on any key metric, it is clear
- 18:01that Hungary is a massive, massive underperformer compared
- 18:05to regional peers. And so I think, you know, in
- 18:09particular the youth that was incredibly mobile.
- 18:12But even what was interesting about the result yesterday was
- 18:14in the constituency vote where there wasn't good constituency
- 18:18level data, these Fides strongholds in the countryside
- 18:22massively turned towards Tisa and Peter Meyer.
- 18:25That is what delivered the 2/3 majority.
- 18:28And even the posters didn't capture that trend because there
- 18:31wasn't good data available. And so I think the the general
- 18:34sentiment was across the country was people want to reimagine
- 18:38their future. They realise Hungary is
- 18:40underperforming. There is all of the sleaze that
- 18:43Maya was very good at putting on social media and exposing the
- 18:47corruption. And he had the credibility to do
- 18:49it because as you say, he came from within the system.
- 18:52And I think that was incredibly damaging for for Orban.
- 18:55And we will see, Matt, now in Europe, in the institutions I've
- 18:59been in Brussels a few weeks ago talking to officials in the
- 19:02European Commission, A lot of money is going to flow to
- 19:05Hungary very, very quickly. 6 1/2 billion in grants.
- 19:10That's money the Hungarians will not need to repay.
- 19:13That was in this pan, this facility that was created in the
- 19:18aftermath of the pandemic to help countries recover from
- 19:21COVID. None of that money has been
- 19:22dispersed to Hungary. It's just sitting there.
- 19:24That facility expires at the end of the year.
- 19:26All of that money, I suspect, is going to flow into the real
- 19:29economy. This is going to boost growth.
- 19:31It's going to help living standards.
- 19:32It's going to further consolidate Peter Meyer and
- 19:35Teasers power, and I think that's all a very, very good
- 19:39thing. Silad, what do you think will
- 19:41happen now to Hungary's blocking of the €90 billion sent to
- 19:46Ukraine? I'm assuming that that will go.
- 19:49And also, what do you think that Peter Maggio will do with his
- 19:522/3 majority in parliament? What, what are the kind of
- 19:55changes that we can expect him to undergo?
- 19:58Yes. So I think his Ukraine policy to
- 20:01be honest is, is quite vague. So actually his strategy in the
- 20:06campaign was to say as little as possible on the issues in which
- 20:12Fidel was seen as winning like on LGBTQS or Ukraine.
- 20:18One thing we know is that the accession, EU accession of
- 20:22Ukraine, he promised to put that on a referendum.
- 20:26And like probably deliveries of weapon is kind of out the
- 20:31question, but like block about blocking the loan.
- 20:35I, I don't think he, he made a clear stance and, and what would
- 20:41happen with the, with the, the whole system.
- 20:46So at his victory speech, he immediately called for the
- 20:52resignation of, of the president of the president of the Supreme
- 20:58Court. And like some other leaders of
- 21:02state institutions who were appointed by by supermajority, I
- 21:08mean, what will happen is of course an open question.
- 21:13But since Tisa will have a super majority in one way or another,
- 21:19I think they will have an opportunity to to oust these
- 21:24people. I I don't think there's any
- 21:27question at all about Maya now supporting this 90 billion loan
- 21:31for Ukraine. Ukraine desperately needs that
- 21:33money, otherwise the administration will not have the
- 21:36money to either pay the military or civil servants and pensioners
- 21:40and do the things government needs to do.
- 21:42Remember, Hungary is not a financial contributor to that 90
- 21:45billion loan or ban secured an opt out.
- 21:48Maya will retain the opt out. But what we do, what Europe does
- 21:51need is Hungary's approval on one piece of legislation that is
- 21:56unanimity in Maya, I think will do that.
- 21:58There's no reason for him not to do it.
- 22:00And he'll want to do it because Europe, as I said, is sitting on
- 22:04billions of EUR worth of financing that he absolutely
- 22:08needs to bolster his economy. And so I think that will move
- 22:10really quickly. Celad, when the Law and Justice
- 22:14Party was defeated in Poland by Donald Tusk and the
- 22:16Progressives, you know, again, a massive sense of relief,
- 22:19especially for, you know, young urbanites and and educated
- 22:23Poles. But a massive fight back from
- 22:26the remnants of law and justice in the judiciary, in the media,
- 22:29in the institutions of the state where they had embedded
- 22:32themselves quite effectively. Can we expect the same thing to
- 22:35happen in Hungary? At least yesterday, Urban seemed
- 22:42to be quite determined to, to act as a strong opposition
- 22:49force. But on the other hand, I, I, I
- 22:51think the, the defeat is, is so huge that I wouldn't be
- 22:56surprised if, if some kind of movement would, would start
- 23:02within Fidel. So I, I think we should look out
- 23:06for it. And, and there are some some
- 23:09politicians, especially a minister called Janos Lazar, who
- 23:14is widely seen as one who could try to stage an rebellion
- 23:20against urban. But yeah, I think that's one
- 23:24open question. What will happen inside Fiders
- 23:26and and how all these people appointed by fiders to to the
- 23:31heads of different state institutions will behave in the
- 23:37in the near future? So would they resign?
- 23:40Would they try to try to fight and or would they try to
- 23:43cooperate with the with the new government?
- 23:46I think all of these scenarios are possible and these will be
- 23:50at the end of the day, like not just the choice of Orban, but
- 23:54also personal choices of his close confidence.
- 23:59And considering the fact Cela that there were so many
- 24:01accusations of corruption against Orban, is it possible
- 24:04that he himself might be investigated or even face trial?
- 24:08I think it is possible. Majar also promised to set up a
- 24:12new investigative body for for corruption cases and and to
- 24:19retrieve, you know, the the lowest asset of the state.
- 24:23So we don't really know the details, but definitely the the
- 24:29electorate has an expectation of of him doing it.
- 24:35I mean, it's a bit similar to what Orban promised actually in
- 24:402010 that he would do with the previous socialist government.
- 24:45And in the end he did not come to to very much.
- 24:49Whether this time it will be different, I don't know.
- 24:52I think it's an open question. And also what will happen with
- 24:56all these state funded, but I mean at least on paper private
- 25:01companies, which we can see already on the stock market How
- 25:07the there is a big fall in their evaluation.
- 25:10So yeah, the, the Hungarian economy is, is set for a quite
- 25:15turbulent time and not only because of the possible criminal
- 25:20investigations, but simply because the state was so
- 25:23involved in the in the economy that it won't be too simple to
- 25:29to undo this because there are also like banks involved, not
- 25:33only like construction companies.
- 25:35Peter Maggio, I mean, he, he's much better looking in real life
- 25:38than he's on the posters. He's I think 45 years old.
- 25:41He did that walking tour across Hungary.
- 25:44You know, he comes across as a sort of felt, you know, whip it
- 25:47like marathon runner personality.
- 25:50And he's clearly a very smart campaigner.
- 25:52But he's not very popular is he? Had a rather troubled marriage
- 25:56and people aren't very nice about him as a person.
- 25:59Can you tell us a bit more? He is definitely popular now,
- 26:02although it's true that many people who who voted for them
- 26:06are not really, you know, like him personally or they are not
- 26:11even centre right. There is an electorate I think
- 26:15for the left and for the Liberals, but simply there was
- 26:18no other choice. So it's an open question, how,
- 26:23how successful will he be in in uniting or keeping together?
- 26:27He's not an Angel, and maybe, you know, he'll discover the
- 26:30limits of that. Yeah, like not an Angel.
- 26:32And maybe 1 aspect which is personally important for me is
- 26:37how he behaves with the journalists and then toward the
- 26:40independent media is also not very encouraging.
- 26:43So many times when the Independent Press wrote
- 26:47something negative about him or or Tissa, he called out the
- 26:51journalist as propagandists that paid by fidders and so on and so
- 26:56forth. So so yeah, I, I wouldn't bet on
- 27:01him behaving like an injury towards the, the media in
- 27:06government, but like sinks, at least in the media sector,
- 27:09cannot really get any worse, only better at at least in the
- 27:14in the short run, in my opinion. I think you're right there and
- 27:17and no one likes journalists. Let's face it, Mitch, final one
- 27:20to you. I mean, it's the real lesson
- 27:21here of this election, a rather mundane one, which is whether
- 27:25you're populist right or you're populist left, at the end of the
- 27:28day, the biggest curse to any government, especially the
- 27:33elected ones, is incumbency. Absolutely.
- 27:37Even in a heavily gerrymandered system that's been completely
- 27:41tilted to benefit the incumbent, After a while, if you're not
- 27:46addressing issues around standards of living, people
- 27:50aren't being made to feel better.
- 27:52They're worried about their future.
- 27:53Then you're going to you're going to face a major push back
- 27:57at the ballot box. I do think we should just take a
- 28:00second and recognize, though, what Meyer battled with both
- 28:04internally. The system that he confronted,
- 28:07which Orban effectively kept rigging over the 16 years he was
- 28:12in power, combined with, as you said, that global nationalist,
- 28:15populist forces from Vladimir Putin to Donald Trump to
- 28:19effectively manage those internal and external
- 28:21constraints and not only win but but deliver a 2/3 majority, I
- 28:26think is an absolutely remarkable outcome.
- 28:29And I should say, Matt, I imagine and we'll see with Maya
- 28:33whether he now opens up and some of the concerns about how he
- 28:36engages with the media, etcetera are resolved.
- 28:39But one one perhaps signpost that gives me a bit of
- 28:44confidence is the team that he has selected, in particular, his
- 28:48choice of foreign minister, Anita Orban is his choice of
- 28:51economy and finance minister. These are really smart,
- 28:55competent people. They don't have executive or
- 28:58political experience. But on substance, these are the
- 29:01right people. And so let's see whether they
- 29:04now can actually transition from campaigning to governing and
- 29:07delivering, which is you. You and I know Matt, in the UK
- 29:10context, for example, has not been straightforward, but that's
- 29:13where the test I think now lies. And do you think that Maja could
- 29:17become the poster boy for the kind of anti populist fight back
- 29:21in the way that Orban was the poster boy?
- 29:24Poster boy for the populist revolution in Europe.
- 29:26I think people are going to be absolutely studying the
- 29:29election, what Maya did, how the campaign worked, the strategies
- 29:34involved very, very, very closely.
- 29:36There are three major elections met in Europe next year, the big
- 29:40one being France, right? If France turns far right, the
- 29:43conversation we're having today will be what we're having in
- 29:46reverse on steroids, because a France far right is a very
- 29:49different proposition than a Hungary far right.
- 29:51It would mean the end of the EU as we know it.
- 29:53And so I think there will be a lot of people engaging with the,
- 29:57my our team to understand what happened and what they did and
- 29:59how they did what they did as they look to those elections
- 30:02next year. But the hope absolutely will be
- 30:05the that they can turn the tide now, and that momentum will move
- 30:08in the other direction. See that Orban always claimed
- 30:11that he made Hungary great, but he also made Orban greater.
- 30:14What will Maja do? With himself at at least one
- 30:18promise. Which is which gives me a
- 30:20confidence is he said that he would introduce a A2 term limit
- 30:26for the for the Prime Minister. So I think I think that's a good
- 30:31sign and and I agree with with Mitch that the choice of people
- 30:36around him, it was so looks quite good.
- 30:39So Anita Orban, Ishvan Capitan and so on.
- 30:43These are these are competent people like and I really hope
- 30:49that, yeah, this time he or like the new, new government, we will
- 30:55use this 2/3 opportunity wisely and and build back democracy
- 31:03rather than, you know, entrenching their own powers.
- 31:08And everyone will be watching ease and ever ears are still
- 31:10ringing from last night's euphoria, which was, as we said
- 31:13at the beginning, quite, quite extraordinary.
- 31:15A night to remember, I think is the best way of summing it up.
- 31:19Cela titsa Midrahman, thank you very much to both of you for
- 31:22coming on the forecast. That's it for this special
- 31:24edition from Budapest. I hope you enjoyed it.
- 31:27See you next time.