Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / P&L: Trump Tends to Aim High, Then Fall Back
Transcript
- 0:04Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg P and L Podcast. I'm Pim Fox.
- 0:08Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Abramowitz. Each day we
- 0:11Speaker 1: bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews for
- 0:14Speaker 1: you and your money, whether at the grocery store or
- 0:16Speaker 1: the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg P L Podcast on iTunes,
- 0:20Speaker 1: SoundCloud and at Bloomberg dot com. Peter koit us economy
- 0:32Speaker 1: team covering all the indicators. He's our economic editor for
- 0:36Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business Week, and he can be followed on Twitter
- 0:39Speaker 1: at Peter Koi CEO. Y all right, Mr ki Uh,
- 0:44Speaker 1: tell us a little bit about the economy and the
- 0:47Speaker 1: challenges that a Trump administration faces. Well, Donald Trump is
- 0:53Speaker 1: uh is a regieved changer. He's he's not your average
- 0:57Speaker 1: new president coming into office. He's got incredibly ambitious goals.
- 1:03Speaker 1: He wants to really change things a lot, and he
- 1:05Speaker 1: has vanquished his political opponents. But can he as easily
- 1:10Speaker 1: vanquish his economic challenges? And that's the question I have.
- 1:14Speaker 1: I mean, well, yeah, specifically, I mean, he's vowed to
- 1:17Speaker 1: cut taxes, but he's also planning to increase spending quite substantially.
- 1:21Speaker 1: And the question that I have is, I mean aren't
- 1:23Speaker 1: there going to be some Republicans who don't want to
- 1:26Speaker 1: see the deficit expanded dramatically? And how is this going
- 1:29Speaker 1: to work? Exactly? So, the compare of nonprofits in Washington,
- 1:34Speaker 1: the Committee for Responsible Federal Budget and the Urbans Brookings
- 1:38Speaker 1: Tax Policy Center did a joint report looking at Trump's
- 1:44Speaker 1: sort of the handcuffs on him, the economic handcuffs, and
- 1:47Speaker 1: saying that if you look at Trump's plan, as you said,
- 1:51Speaker 1: he wants to cut tracks is dramatically, but he wants
- 1:54Speaker 1: to preserve the big cost centers of the federal budget,
- 1:57Speaker 1: which your Social Security and Medicare, and he must keep
- 2:00Speaker 1: defense spending on track or raise it. He said, the
- 2:04Speaker 1: new spending over the next decade will be ten times
- 2:07Speaker 1: larger than the new revenue. And as you say, there's
- 2:10Speaker 1: a political constraint there in the economic constraint. The political
- 2:13Speaker 1: constraint is people in his own party might not want
- 2:15Speaker 1: to go along with that. The economic constraint is that
- 2:18Speaker 1: the bond market vigilantes might not want to go along
- 2:20Speaker 1: with it. So we focus a lot on politics because
- 2:24Speaker 1: it's been an election, but I think we need to
- 2:26Speaker 1: look at finance and economics as well. I want to
- 2:29Speaker 1: look at the bond yield the tenure, Peter, because I
- 2:31Speaker 1: know you were interested in that as well. Right, two
- 2:34Speaker 1: point eight percent right now for the tenure. What does
- 2:38Speaker 1: that that sell off in the bond market tell you, Well,
- 2:42Speaker 1: you can need to look at the level and you
- 2:44Speaker 1: can look at the change. The level is still pretty moderate.
- 2:47Speaker 1: We're not talking about a high bond yield historically, it's
- 2:50Speaker 1: the change that matters. And it shot up the day
- 2:53Speaker 1: after the election. Yield shot up. The yield shot up noticeably.
- 2:57Speaker 1: No one wanted to own these ten years, right, and
- 3:00Speaker 1: so again you know, the Federal Reserve has been sort
- 3:04Speaker 1: of wanting to see inflation higher, and you know what
- 3:08Speaker 1: we're probably seeing here is higher inflation expectations being embedded
- 3:12Speaker 1: in the bond yield. So it's not a terrible thing.
- 3:17Speaker 1: It could be that people are betting that the tax
- 3:20Speaker 1: cuts will be stimulative towards the economy and raise inflation
- 3:24Speaker 1: a little bit. It could be an infrastructure spending which
- 3:26Speaker 1: would also be stimulative. So, uh, what we're seeing is
- 3:30Speaker 1: the bond market seeing, hey, this is a new game.
- 3:33Speaker 1: You know, one thing that you quoted from Donald Trump's book,
- 3:38Speaker 1: The Art of the Deal, is him saying I never
- 3:40Speaker 1: get too attached to one deal or one approach. I mean,
- 3:43Speaker 1: how much do we actually know about what he wants
- 3:46Speaker 1: to do? Um And is it matter more who he's
- 3:48Speaker 1: listening to with respect to getting economic advice? Yeah, I
- 3:54Speaker 1: think that he aside from making America great again, which
- 3:57Speaker 1: he's definitely committed to, I think a lot of the
- 4:00Speaker 1: details are ones that he'll play it by ear he'll
- 4:03Speaker 1: see what he can get through. Another quote from the
- 4:07Speaker 1: Art of the Deal is that he he tends to
- 4:10Speaker 1: aim high and then fight and then fall back. That's
- 4:13Speaker 1: the typical uh people some people do in real estate, right,
- 4:17Speaker 1: They asked for a lot, and they don't always get
- 4:20Speaker 1: what they want. So when he asked for this enormous
- 4:23Speaker 1: tax cut, he may fully intend to pull back and
- 4:26Speaker 1: accept a smaller tax cut. The dollar and the U. S.
- 4:30Speaker 1: Treasuries opposite directions is the greatest correlation since December. What
- 4:38Speaker 1: do you make of the fact that you've got this
- 4:40Speaker 1: major difference between people wanting to own the dollar and
- 4:43Speaker 1: people wanting to own US treasuries? Well, think about it.
- 4:46Speaker 1: Higher yields actually attract money into the the U. S.
- 4:49Speaker 1: A that's I think that might be what's going on
- 4:51Speaker 1: in the currency. Well, there's also the flip side of that,
- 4:55Speaker 1: which is the depreciation of some currencies that might be
- 4:58Speaker 1: of nations that might be negatively effect to dry a
- 5:00Speaker 1: newly h new new trade deals from the US. So
- 5:04Speaker 1: you've got a Mexican pay so moving quite a bit,
- 5:05Speaker 1: and you've got to you know, Europe with its own issues.
- 5:08Speaker 1: There's a lot of dynamic action behind there, and there
- 5:11Speaker 1: are a lot of people who are stepping back entirely
- 5:13Speaker 1: at this point in trying to wait and see how
- 5:15Speaker 1: that takes out. Peter koy Uh, us economy editor at Bloomberg,
- 5:19Speaker 1: thank you so much for being with us. It's really
- 5:20Speaker 1: fascinating to see the negotiations going forward and how this
- 5:24Speaker 1: will work um when you actually have to get to
- 5:27Speaker 1: the bottom line. One other place that is seeing some
- 5:38Speaker 1: big money and potentially even bigger money is the marijuana industry.
- 5:42Speaker 1: I want to bring in Rickford, CEO and executive chairman
- 5:45Speaker 1: of Pure Agro, which is a company that applies goods
- 5:49Speaker 1: to help with the growth of marijuana plans. This was
- 5:52Speaker 1: a big This was a big election for you, wasn't it.
- 5:55Speaker 1: It sure was. I want to clarify we're kind of
- 5:57Speaker 1: a picks and shovels play for what we're calling the rush.
- 6:00Speaker 1: So just like the Gold Rush, picks and Shovels were
- 6:02Speaker 1: the companies that made it, we feel we're picks and shovels.
- 6:05Speaker 1: We we just supply the equipment, nutrients, and typical farming products. So, um,
- 6:11Speaker 1: let's let's go over what happened on Tuesday. California voters
- 6:15Speaker 1: uh and those in Massachusetts, Nevada, and Florida North Dakota
- 6:19Speaker 1: all past some measures, whether it was medical marijuana or
- 6:23Speaker 1: also recreational marijuana, making it legal. How concerned are you
- 6:27Speaker 1: that this could get reversed with an anti drug Republican administration.
- 6:34Speaker 1: I think the Republicans have had a conservative platform on
- 6:37Speaker 1: states rights, and I think as long as they stick
- 6:40Speaker 1: to that platform and let the states do what they want,
- 6:43Speaker 1: which has historically been their platform, I think we're in
- 6:46Speaker 1: a good position. Now. You have been credited with creating
- 6:50Speaker 1: the first, uh, well the first in the country custom
- 6:55Speaker 1: platinum certified home when it comes to energy efficiency. Yeah.
- 7:00Speaker 1: My my background is environmental construction, so I built the
- 7:04Speaker 1: first Lead platinum home and helped the Lead rating system
- 7:07Speaker 1: in their progress into the residential market. All right. And
- 7:10Speaker 1: the reason I bring that up is because I'm curious
- 7:12Speaker 1: if you can give us an estimate for how much
- 7:14Speaker 1: energy And as you said, picks and shovels, it's not
- 7:16Speaker 1: just picks and shovels. It's all of the farming equipment,
- 7:19Speaker 1: but it's the energy also that it is taking off
- 7:21Speaker 1: the grid. If you, uh, let's say, just set aside
- 7:25Speaker 1: the legal issues of the marijuana industry, what kind of
- 7:29Speaker 1: energy consumption is are we talking about? You know, it's
- 7:33Speaker 1: hard to put a dollar amount or a percentage because
- 7:35Speaker 1: I don't have the data from the growers, but I'll
- 7:38Speaker 1: tell you it's a big line item for them. And
- 7:40Speaker 1: actually the marijuana industry is what's fueling the R and
- 7:43Speaker 1: D for these lighting manufacturers and such to bring down
- 7:47Speaker 1: the cost of it. And as we see in Colorado,
- 7:50Speaker 1: the price of cannabis has been dropping due to the
- 7:53Speaker 1: recreational that's forcing these guys to look at their P
- 7:57Speaker 1: and l's and actually pull up. Are there specific companies
- 8:01Speaker 1: or technologies that you can point to that are being developed. Yeah,
- 8:05Speaker 1: there's a lot of technology, and I think we're seeing
- 8:07Speaker 1: in L e D. L E D really hasn't been
- 8:09Speaker 1: able to break into the cannabis market yet, but what
- 8:13Speaker 1: I see on the horizon, I think it will be
- 8:15Speaker 1: so one thing that pure predicts is that the legal
- 8:18Speaker 1: marijuana industry will grow to be a fifty billion dollar industry.
- 8:22Speaker 1: By what has to happen for that to happen? Right now?
- 8:26Speaker 1: You askedimate that is about a six billion dollars. Yeah,
- 8:29Speaker 1: I really think that we're seeing it happen with what
- 8:31Speaker 1: you just said about these votes. I mean, Florida going
- 8:34Speaker 1: medical is just huge. That once again, that's a Florida
- 8:37Speaker 1: passing the bill legalizing medical marijuana exactly, and then California
- 8:42Speaker 1: going recreational. So California, by a couple of estimates, represents
- 8:47Speaker 1: either sixty two or eighty two percent of the totals
- 8:49Speaker 1: country country's cannabis markets. So when you look at it
- 8:52Speaker 1: like that, just California alone could throw a big chunk
- 8:57Speaker 1: of the number you just quoted. Yeah, I love him.
- 8:59Speaker 1: I love that every industry has their uh lingo and
- 9:03Speaker 1: that this is going medical or going or going recreational.
- 9:07Speaker 1: I love it the different expressions that come up. Um,
- 9:10Speaker 1: how about going just to run down some of the initiatives, right,
- 9:14Speaker 1: because Massachusetts approved voted for recreational marijuana. Also extending a
- 9:19Speaker 1: legal marijuana that makes it a coast to coast situation,
- 9:23Speaker 1: doesn't it? It It sure does. So there are still those
- 9:27Speaker 1: that oppose this or that are sort of trying to
- 9:30Speaker 1: get court orders to halt some of the bills from
- 9:33Speaker 1: getting implemented or for allowing people to exercise their new rights. Um,
- 9:38Speaker 1: basically before there's a social study to look at whether
- 9:41Speaker 1: this does have a bad effect on social fabric. Um,
- 9:46Speaker 1: How concerned are you about that kind of activity? Well,
- 9:49Speaker 1: since you know, my company owns the largest player in Colorado,
- 9:53Speaker 1: and Colorado was really the social experiment. So what we're
- 9:55Speaker 1: seeing with Colorado is that they love the tax revenue.
- 9:59Speaker 1: There is no other consumption of other drugs, that gateway
- 10:04Speaker 1: drugs sort of mentality. I think that's been put to rest.
- 10:08Speaker 1: And um, I feel that Colorado, since they've already done it,
- 10:12Speaker 1: we'll see the same thing happened in California. We'll see
- 10:15Speaker 1: public opinion be very high after the recreational passes real quick.
- 10:19Speaker 1: Which state do you think is next to legalize marijuana? Wow? Um,
- 10:23Speaker 1: I'd like to see New York. Is that where you're from?
- 10:28Speaker 1: I'm bi coastal Ah, thank you so much for being
- 10:30Speaker 1: with us, Rick Bird a fascinating time for the marijuana industry. Rickbird,
- 10:34Speaker 1: CEO and executive chairman chairman of Pure Agro. On the
- 10:37Speaker 1: marijuana business, thank you grow to be fifty billion dollars
- 10:42Speaker 1: in the next ten years. Definitely a big industry, Definitely
- 10:45Speaker 1: something to watch, and I know anecdotally speaking too many
- 10:48Speaker 1: traders out there, that it is something that they're watching
- 10:50Speaker 1: as a potential profit boon and something to to bet on.
- 10:53Speaker 1: So it'll be interesting to see how they do that
- 10:56Speaker 1: with the picks and Shovel's type of play or not.
- 10:58Speaker 1: This is Bloomer all right, Let's solve the issue of
- 11:11Speaker 1: retail sales with an expert our own Punam Goyle, senior
- 11:16Speaker 1: US retail analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. Put them, where do
- 11:20Speaker 1: you want to start? You want to start with Macy's
- 11:22Speaker 1: and Coals and then I know we get Nordstrom's after
- 11:24Speaker 1: the close today. Yeah, sure, we can start with Macy's.
- 11:27Speaker 1: I guess that's the largest department store, so let's start there.
- 11:30Speaker 1: I think you know, overall in the department store channel,
- 11:32Speaker 1: you're seeing the stocks rise the last I checked high
- 11:34Speaker 1: single digits, and that strength is coming from the sales
- 11:37Speaker 1: warrant that bad. I mean, that's really it. They were
- 11:40Speaker 1: still but they weren't that bad, so I think the
- 11:44Speaker 1: optimism really comes from their coals. Was a big surprise. Um,
- 11:47Speaker 1: they actually beat by ten cents UM, which is a
- 11:50Speaker 1: big number. Sales they missed a little. The beat was
- 11:54Speaker 1: entirely on better expense management. So very good numbers out
- 11:58Speaker 1: of colds. On Macy's, the numbers were weaker, but the
- 12:01Speaker 1: guidance was better. Um. They expect same stert sales to
- 12:04Speaker 1: be less negative UM for the year, which is good
- 12:08Speaker 1: for the fourth quarter. So what's behind the less negative outlook,
- 12:12Speaker 1: which is, by the way, so encouraging. I mean, it
- 12:14Speaker 1: makes it makes me just want to run out and
- 12:16Speaker 1: buy something. Uh, what's behind it? It's all about inventory.
- 12:19Speaker 1: It's all about inventory management. Retailers have been really in
- 12:24Speaker 1: the spiral of you know, too much inventory, have to
- 12:27Speaker 1: discount um reduce the sales. And at the end of
- 12:31Speaker 1: the second quarter they were lean on inventory. They maintained
- 12:33Speaker 1: that inventory discipline. They're continuing to pull back orders from
- 12:37Speaker 1: wholesale and that's helping their margins and it's allowing them
- 12:41Speaker 1: to discount less. So that's really the magic behind why
- 12:45Speaker 1: things are less bad. Traffic is still down, so that
- 12:49Speaker 1: that continues to be the case. Do you think that
- 12:51Speaker 1: this is worth it? I mean, I'm looking at Macy's
- 12:52Speaker 1: shares and they're up eight percent. Well, I just I'm just,
- 12:57Speaker 1: you know, like I got to hear, I mean put
- 12:59Speaker 1: I was saying, well, here, they're basically less bad. Let
- 13:02Speaker 1: me let me add to this. Let me let me
- 13:04Speaker 1: add to this. This is the seventh consecutive quarter in
- 13:06Speaker 1: which sales and profits have both declined. Correct, Um, Macy's
- 13:11Speaker 1: made I love this zero point two cents for every
- 13:15Speaker 1: dollar it took in in revenue, adding to the math.
- 13:19Speaker 1: But I assume you're right, right, Okay, but you can't
- 13:21Speaker 1: do that for very long, can you? No? You know,
- 13:24Speaker 1: I think that's the problem for retail though. Right in general,
- 13:27Speaker 1: we're in this position where consumers are not going to stores,
- 13:32Speaker 1: and if they are, they're choosing one and how and
- 13:35Speaker 1: where they shop. They're shopping more online. So these retailers,
- 13:38Speaker 1: by nature have to evolve. And Macy's today said something
- 13:42Speaker 1: about that they hired m Brookfield Brookfield Asset Management because
- 13:46Speaker 1: that they got a big base of real estate, right,
- 13:48Speaker 1: I mean, they got that Union Square store in San Francisco,
- 13:51Speaker 1: for example, two and fifty million dollars. Yeah, but you know,
- 13:54Speaker 1: Hall Square is still on the table, and that's what
- 13:56Speaker 1: everyone's dying for. So I think they're taking baby steps
- 13:59Speaker 1: on their real estate. Eight. But when the Herald Square
- 14:01Speaker 1: deal strikes, what it is, um, you know, what do
- 14:04Speaker 1: you think that's going to look like? Can you give
- 14:05Speaker 1: us some idea of the shape? So I think it's
- 14:08Speaker 1: going to be the last one that they do, because
- 14:10Speaker 1: it is the largest and the most complex. This is
- 14:12Speaker 1: for the New York City flaship, for the New York
- 14:14Speaker 1: City Harald Square, the you know, the iconic Macy store. Um.
- 14:19Speaker 1: It's valued at four billion dollars from Starboard. That's what
- 14:22Speaker 1: it was valued at in January. So that's the big deal.
- 14:26Speaker 1: And when that happens, who knows, But I think it'll
- 14:29Speaker 1: be the last. They're kind of just scratching the surface
- 14:31Speaker 1: pleasing investors by making these baby sales. Um. But that's
- 14:36Speaker 1: what everyone's waiting for for Macy's. I'm looking at Nordstrom
- 14:39Speaker 1: shares at Nordstrom Reports after the bell today and they're
- 14:42Speaker 1: up about almost the exact same amount is macy shares
- 14:45Speaker 1: More than eight percent UM. Why I mean, I think
- 14:49Speaker 1: everyone's just expecting less negative news, but probably more positive
- 14:52Speaker 1: from Nordstrom. So Nordstrom wasn't really supposed to follow the
- 14:56Speaker 1: weakness that we had expected originally from Macy's and Coals
- 14:59Speaker 1: because had an anniversary sales shift. So if you recall
- 15:02Speaker 1: their anniversary sale that they have every year, a week
- 15:05Speaker 1: of that moved from the second quarter into the third quarter,
- 15:08Speaker 1: and that was supposed to help nord Storms results. We
- 15:11Speaker 1: expected to help nord Storms results. But just by seeing
- 15:14Speaker 1: UM better numbers out of Macy's and Cold, I think
- 15:16Speaker 1: the market in general is more positive on the department
- 15:18Speaker 1: stores could have. Could the better better than expected numbers
- 15:22Speaker 1: have anything to do with a stronger economy than many
- 15:25Speaker 1: UH analysts were expecting, You know, I don't think there's
- 15:27Speaker 1: much that has changed and the economy. If you look
- 15:30Speaker 1: at the third quarter, macy cited very good back to
- 15:33Speaker 1: school and so did Colds, so I think that's encouraging.
- 15:36Speaker 1: But things ZiT soften in September and then we're kind
- 15:38Speaker 1: of flatish in October. So I'd say less to do
- 15:42Speaker 1: the economy, more to do with maybe tourism for Macy's,
- 15:45Speaker 1: UM they had a hundred two hundred and fifty basis
- 15:48Speaker 1: point impact from tourism and most of the last eighteen months,
- 15:52Speaker 1: and now tourism sales are just in line with their comps.
- 15:56Speaker 1: So that's helping Macy's too. J C. Penny, they will
- 15:59Speaker 1: be reporting of results tomorrow and the stock is up
- 16:03Speaker 1: more than eight and a half percent today. What's the
- 16:05Speaker 1: j C. Penny turnaround story looking like it's you know,
- 16:08Speaker 1: it's on its way to a turnaround. It's proven it um.
- 16:10Speaker 1: We expect no different tomorrow results where it's going to
- 16:13Speaker 1: be better than Macy's and Coals And now it just
- 16:16Speaker 1: reinforces if they didn't do that bad, they probably did
- 16:18Speaker 1: even better. Appliances focused on home, private label Sephora. I mean,
- 16:23Speaker 1: those are all positives for the company. The company probably
- 16:27Speaker 1: will not or will take a long time to go
- 16:29Speaker 1: back to seventeen billion dollars in sales. It's right now
- 16:32Speaker 1: at under thirteen billion UM. But it's growing and its
- 16:36Speaker 1: stores look better. It's digital platform is improving. They're making
- 16:41Speaker 1: all the right steps to differentiate. Marvin Allison is really
- 16:44Speaker 1: pulling this one out. He is. He's doing a good job.
- 16:47Speaker 1: He's differentiating the department store. Well, you know, you talked
- 16:51Speaker 1: just general about the online presence. I mean, how much
- 16:55Speaker 1: you learning given Coals and UH and Macy's earnings today,
- 17:00Speaker 1: how much have you learned about the progress they've made
- 17:02Speaker 1: on that front. I think they've all made a lot
- 17:04Speaker 1: of progress. But online still isn't the bulk of their sales.
- 17:08Speaker 1: Does it need to be? It probably will have to
- 17:11Speaker 1: be at some point as a closed store. So you know,
- 17:13Speaker 1: we've been calling that stores need to close. Macy's announced
- 17:16Speaker 1: a hundred for next year, but a hundred out of
- 17:18Speaker 1: seven hundred some odd store macy stores is still too
- 17:21Speaker 1: many stores. There's about four hundred to six hundred a
- 17:24Speaker 1: b malls, the malls that you want to be in,
- 17:26Speaker 1: and UM, do they need to be in more than that?
- 17:29Speaker 1: That's the question. So will online grow to be more
- 17:32Speaker 1: than just ten percent of retail sales? Absolutely, At some
- 17:35Speaker 1: specialty apparel retailers anywhere from UM department stores I think
- 17:40Speaker 1: are still scratching in the low double digits. So there
- 17:43Speaker 1: is more opportunity there. Buy online, pickup in store has
- 17:47Speaker 1: great attachment rates. That's helping them. That's a plus for
- 17:50Speaker 1: them when they compete against Amazon. That doesn't have those locations,
- 17:54Speaker 1: but we should see fewer stories down the line, if
- 17:57Speaker 1: not few or at least smaller stores. Smaller store for
- 18:00Speaker 1: Macy's indeed. And we're also going to be getting Walmart
- 18:02Speaker 1: results next a week actually from today right Walmart, this
- 18:07Speaker 1: stock is up so far this year. Thanks for listening
- 18:14Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg pien L podcast. You can subscribe and
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- 18:23Speaker 1: you prefer. I'm pim Fox. I'm out there on Twitter
- 18:26Speaker 1: at pim Fox. I'm out there on Twitter at Lisa Abramo.
- 18:29Speaker 1: It's one before the podcast. You can always catch us
- 18:32Speaker 1: worldwide on Bloomberg Radio