Latest / The Scout and The Speculator / AFL Preview Episode 5 - Scottsdale Scorpions
Transcript
- Jaba: Hello, everybody. Welcome back to the Scout and the Speculator Podcast. This is Will Jarvis, also known as Jabba Cards, joined by my co-host Jeremy Brown of Perfect Game Baseball, more importantly, known as JGB underscore cards underscore. As always, today's podcast is brought to you by Prospect Pulse. That is prospectpulse v1.com, the best place for all of your Bowman wants and needs. Today we are on episode five. We've kind of been flying through these ⁓ in our AFL series. ⁓ last few teams have been a bit quieter on the talent, but today we have the Scottsdale Scorpions coming up, and there is definitely no shortage of talent here. ⁓ looking at the checklist now, we got six guys over twenty-five dollars. The cheapest one of those was underscore_underscore_: Yep. Jaba: the MVP of the futures game. Then you got a pair of guys at fifteen bucks and only four guys under fifteen. So there's some good depth, no real complete throwaway names here. And yeah, let's get into it. Jeremy, who's ⁓ who's your number one guy on the Scorpions? underscore_underscore_: ⁓ number one guy based solely off of value is Bryce Rayner right now. ⁓ He was he was at like a hundred dollar base auto heading into the year, then he changed up his swing, was like super low handset, deep hand wrap, like couldn't get the barrel head around, made a midseason shift. He's down it's ⁓ right now at an average of fifty-nine dollars and ten cents, and I think now he should be closer to that hundred dollar mark than the fifty-nine dollar mark with what he did. Was a really slow start. ⁓ finished the year with a 260 average. 271 once he got up to high A. He earned that promotion and we were kind of like, huh. Because he was hitting a buck 67 with like no power. 20 punches to six walks in A ball. Get him out of Lakeland. A little bit of a graveyard. Jumped up to high A. 271 average. 18 pumps, 21 dubs. Like, still striking out a lot. 151 at ⁓ strikeouts and three hundred and sixty two at bats. But he definitely turned it around to what we thought heading into the year, the numbers were gonna look like. maybe doesn't have that slow start, has his normal swing and is hitting twenty five to thirty range. In which case you're like, yeah, this this is all coming together. right behind him is ⁓ go ahead. Jaba: Yeah. No, I I'm just gonna s I I mean, obviously he's a talented guy, dealt with an injury ⁓ in his first pro season, but ⁓ a thirty six percent K rate is just a non starter for me. I mean that's around where Andrew Fisher was and he still put up, you know, I think he hit fifty bombs now. I'm still out on him. underscore_underscore_: Yeah. He got fifty last night, including the playoffs, yeah. Jaba: you know, based on where his prices are. If his prices were where Raynor is, I'd be buying. But that that's just such a tough starting point with a K rate like that, at least for me, where it's like you better be doing something ridiculous to make up for it. And I mean he had like you said, if you cut out the eleven games in single A that were a really bad, ⁓ You know, he had a one twenty-eight WRC plus in high A, so firmly above average in his twenty year old season there. You know, for me it it's just that's a scary scary K rate and something that I'm gonna have difficulty getting past. But he's a guy who has the name recognition. He's obviously been expensive before and underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Yeah. Jaba: You know, I don't think it would take much for him to get expensive again, right? Because I think these names underscore_underscore_: Agree. Jaba: you know, that we see get high, you know, if they start performing well, I think everyone is naturally just like, ⁓ this was high before, you know, this is a good buy then because we're forty bucks below where he was and he's in the news again. ⁓ that's not to say you're an idiot if you're buying Bryce Raynor. ⁓ you know, I I can see the rationale, ⁓ just for me personally, not something I'm gonna be ⁓ going after. underscore_underscore_: Yeah, exactly. Yep. Makes sense. ⁓ next guy on the list though might be somebody that's possibly worth a buy right now, and that's Brayland Payne. Like, we're talking he was young for the draft when he came out in twenty four. He just turned twenty years old a month ago. So he's still young. I love a good left handed hitter with athleticism. He has that. Pipeline's got him at a seventy run. I mean twenty five pumps. Jaba: ⁓ yeah. Yep. underscore_underscore_: ⁓ bags, but he has twenty eight home runs, twenty one doubles. ⁓ again, there is some swing and misconcerning. He's at almost at like a four to one closing in on there. But for the age and level he's at making it up to double A this year, where he did like a chunk of his damage, not not a ton, 'cause he played a fourth of the year there. But he held his own. And we love the Brewers. I mean, you have the Yankees tax, the Dodgers tax, and I think the Brewers tax is next up. ⁓ Jaba: Yeah, I think they're there. underscore_underscore_: Like, he's just a really good athlete and has been since high school. It was kind of a surprise pick for some when he got popped in the first round when he did. ⁓ we actually had a f ⁓ camera crew at his house when he went seventeenth overall doing a day in the life with him on draft night. So that was pretty cool to see. ⁓ but yeah, you can still have get him pretty damn cheap for what he is and what he could be. I think I sold you my refractor. I have some twenty five Bowman autos left. Jaba: Yeah. underscore_underscore_: But might go in and maybe buy one or two just to have, 'cause even if he doesn't do AFL well, he's gonna be a name heading into next year that could move up some lists. Jaba: Yeah. Yeah, I I mean, he's he's a guy that I have a lot of. I feel better about it as time goes on, even though as the year went on, his comps kinda stalled out and even regressed a little bit for whatever reason. ⁓ you know, it would be unfair of me to talk about Bryce Raynor's K rate and then not talk about Payne's. ⁓ Payne struck out at a twenty nine percent clip. underscore_underscore_: Mm-hmm. Jaba: So he's still like seven percent better than Rayner. And I mean, when you're below average, seven percent is a pretty big difference. But, you know, make no mistake, a 29% K rate is not good. The one encouraging thing ⁓ I will say is he played 77 games in A, it was 30. Then in high A, you got it down to 29. Then double A, small sample, it was twenty-eight. So Obviously I'm not really I mean that's the difference of like, you know, two or three walks per level or strikeouts rather. So I'm not saying, you know, it was a massive improvement, but I think the fact that it didn't go backwards as he moved up and he moved up pretty aggressively, like you said, he was nineteen until mid August. you know, you're betting on the tools here and the K rate wasn't getting worse. It was actually getting slightly better. ⁓ you know, twenty-eight homers, twenty-five steals. You look at Eric Hartman and Eric Hartman gets all the accolades, but I I really don't think Payne is far off from Eric Hartman, especially considering ⁓ like you had said that I think it was High A Park, is it Rome? ⁓ is known as a launching pad. ⁓ underscore_underscore_: Mm-hmm. Yeah. Yep. Jaba: You know, I I think it's pretty funny that a lot of these rankings don't have pain in the top one hundred and Hartman's like the biggest riser across the board. I think that that is ridiculous. ⁓ but in a way I kinda hope that they continue to kinda underrate him because as long as the market's kind of in a in a lull right now, I will continue to buy anything that shows up at a good price. ⁓ you know, he'll be twenty next year starting the year in double A. He'll be I I I mean he's right there. I mean debuting at twenty one in twenty twenty eight is firmly on the table. I don't know if you agree with that. but you know, just just so much to like with pain. But I think I've ⁓ gotten my gotten my piece out there. Who uh's our other one of kind of our our big three here, if you want to call. underscore_underscore_: Uh-huh. ⁓ it's a weird one 'cause his ⁓ first autos aren't first autos. He has like four official first autos in a Cubs uniform and that's Zaire Hope and one of which I think is his My First Bowman. it's ⁓ twenty twenty five is his official first, unfirst, not real first auto. It's going just north of fifty right now, traded to the Tigers from the Dodgers. Was originally a cub, and I think he was in part of the Michael Bush trade. ⁓ Along with Jackson Ferris. Like just big left-handed bopper. Like, not gonna take much for him. ⁓ I don't think there's really much else he can do. He's kind of a household name. He's the Tigers number one prospect ahead of Rainer right now. ⁓ I mean, I don't think we have to keep beating a dead horse here in terms of he's got big power because the first three guys have all had good power. Hit shy of three hundred, one forty one strikeout, so sixty-two walks. Surprisingly, stole twenty-six bags. Jaba: Yeah. Yep. underscore_underscore_: And he's not as big as you'd think at 510 193. ⁓ just like I've always pictured him to be a big bopper type, but twenty-nine home runs and 111 RBIs this year with 20 doubles. ⁓ we ⁓ I feel like we just kind of all know Zaire Hope. ⁓ going quickly into the next wave is Eric Batanti, who's had a nice surge in pricing from twenty three draft. Jaba: Yeah. underscore_underscore_: Drafted super young, got paid up pretty good. I think he was like a mil and a half signing bonus, baby. Turns twenty one in November, so mo he'll start that AFL, at least as a twenty year old. ⁓ made it up to double A for a little cup of coffee this year. He's ⁓ he's running a forty one percent K rate right now, which isn't awesome. But hit two sixty two on the year with twenty five home runs, which is his most. He's seen a climb from Two and a short sample size once he signed to 16 to 19 to 25. So the offensive production is getting there. 27 doubles again this year, too. Where he might just be like he could be an Andrew Fisher-esque type where he's a ⁓ big bopper, left handed juice, like has a lot to impact the game, but you're you know what you're getting with him in terms of strength over hit tool, which not to detract from him because those guys play for a long time, look at like a Kyle Schwarber type. Not saying he is a Kyle Schwarber type, but just kind of in terms of thinking about kind of his whole ⁓ operation at the plate in production. Jaba: Yeah. underscore_underscore_: Let's keep rolling. ⁓ I know Dakota Jordan is a fun one that people like to buy and talk about. Like, just a ton of tools. You're talking like double plus run plus raw. ⁓ was super athletic in high school. Played with Blaze Jordan and the Doolin Dodgers coming through. Like I saw Dakota from an early age. And the first time I ever saw him, it was like, that bat speed's different. Like, doesn't take ⁓ anybody could figure that one out. You just watch him, it looks like a toothpick in his hands. ⁓ that said, he did hit 283 this year, which is good. 19 home runs. Also close to a 4 1 strikeout to walk ratio, which kind of seems to be the theme here for the old Scottsdale Scorpions. They might hit a lot, and they might also put up some 15 plus strikeout nights. ⁓ I'm just gonna keep it rolling because this one's already bleeding. ⁓ we're only 12 minutes. ⁓ Go for it. Yes. Jaba: Yeah. One w one thing on Dakota Jordan, I just wanna say, I mean, six foot two thirty one and you look at a picture of the guy, I mean he he's built like an NFL running back. underscore_underscore_: With a seventy grade run tool, which is like absurd. That's absurd speed. Jaba: Yeah. That's ridiculous. Yeah, I think, you know, just quickly here going into the year, at least for me, he was a guy where I was like, Okay, you know, you love the tools But he's turning twenty-three in May, talking about this past May, and you know, he hadn't played above single A. So that was kind of just a killer for me. But ⁓ you know, definitely made his way back on the radar this year. He was okay in twenty one games at double A. ⁓ you know, the age is still working against him. But with that being said, go look at go look at Bo Davidson. Same same team, you know, just got called up, his prices went nuts, another outfielder. underscore_underscore_: Yep. He was older at graduation too. Jaba: You know, I think it's just a good sign that yeah, obviously you want the young guy, but like a guy debuting at twenty four isn't you know it's not like he debuts and if he does something good nobody cares. so underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. I mean look at Joshua Baez. Like I mean that that's like the the one percent of one percent outcomes that you hit that many home runs in your debut. But like a Dakota Refractor just sold for thirty one, the same day a base sold for twenty nine, a couple days before a purple did like forty. So like forty two on auction, that's all in the last three days. So like he is still available. His twenty four autos, I feel like those are starting to dry up. Which they're not, but I just feel like you don't see them as much. Like being run on auctions either on whatnot or eBay. ⁓ But yeah, that's Dakota Jordan. Let's move on to a fan favorite in this household of Nathan Flewelling, whose prices are an absolute yo-yo. never got that huge jump after winning fut ⁓ futures game MVP. Jaba: Yep, guy we both love. underscore_underscore_: I think base autos might have got up to about forty-five and they've settled now down into like call it tw thirty bucks right now. We have it at twenty-six. They go up or down a couple bucks either way. But a year ago at this time you could buy them for three to five three to five dollars, excuse me. So still nineteen, played nineteen all of this year, turns twenty in November. Was a Canadian kid, so got drafted super young. They finished school a year younger than we do in the States. Jaba: Could you? underscore_underscore_: So you typically either see them reclass or they just go to the draft early if they're gonna go good enough, which he did being a third rounder. ⁓ struck out a little bit, one thirty two this year to seventy one walks. ⁓ still controls his own really well for what he is in high A. Kinda worried about the catcher log jam there with the rays to a degree. I mean you got Caden Bodine in front of him, but he might be athletic enough to move kind of wherever you need him to. ⁓ Jaba: Yeah. underscore_underscore_: And he's just gonna hit. ⁓ Flewelling is really good behind the plate. Defensively has a good arm. He's like six foot four, six foot ⁓ no, he's six foot two. So not not overly huge. ⁓ I think he's gonna be like a steady Eddie type that's gonna go on a run. It seems like when he gets hot, he gets really hot. And you'll go weeks without hearing about him, and then you're gonna see him every single day because he like went off four straight games. Jaba: Yeah. underscore_underscore_: ⁓ not that we like streaky hitters, but twenty-one home runs this year after hitting six last year, spending most of his time in A ball last year. I mean, he got a cup of coffee at Hay A. Opened the air at Haya, saw the average rise up, saw the home runs go up, the doubles went up. Like everything just across the board is exactly what you would want to see. And I know we could get into more metrics and like if you wanted to start looking at Jaba: Yeah. underscore_underscore_: ISOs or this or that we could, but we're gonna keep it as simple and as short as possible while still giving as much info as we can. Jaba: Yeah, I I I think he's one of those where we can both kinda give a two thumbs up and, you know, move on with it. I think, you know, you kinda put it perfectly. you know, it's one of those where the more you dig, I think you find more interesting positive facts. But I think, you know, for this purpose, I think we can leave it at, you know. I'm a big fan of his and I I think you are too. underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Jaba: Yeah. Yeah, so then we got we we drop into the teens here. We got a pair of guys at fifteen and change. ⁓ I'll let you take Wayne or Luciano because we ⁓ we nearly had ⁓ a dueling pair of strokes trying to figure this one out this morning. underscore_underscore_: Yeah. We're good. Yeah. Yeah, I mean I don't know. We w I didn't even know what product he was in, so I went on card ladder just to see quick and I was seeing like sales like transacting like recently. And they were going for more than you would have thought. He's a twenty one year old in what? High A? Double A? Hi ⁓ A ball. A ball. Just straight A ball this year. And like hit ten home runs, hit two sixty five with an eight forty one OPS. I won't lie, I d Jaba: Yeah. ⁓ hi Ed. underscore_underscore_: Don't know why he's selling what he's selling at. And I'm just gonna keep it that simple. ⁓ the bat I watch video, it looks like he goes to the plate looking to do some bad things to the baseball. ⁓ but even still, like we just talked about a bunch of guys who had 20 plus pumps this year, and he's ⁓ he's got ten. So I don't really know. If you have ⁓ like go dig ⁓ up if you have ⁓ and just have ⁓ be at the ready for that moment. Jaba: And he's old and single A. underscore_underscore_: That Bowman moment and just sell, I would say. Honest to goodness, like he's an astro too, and they just don't sell. So That leaves us with what, five names left. ⁓ Jaba: Yeah. Yeah. Yep. The other one at fifteen, Caden Kent, son of Jeff Kent. you know, usually when a guy goes from the Yankees market pretty much anywhere you see him go down. I think San Francisco was probably the one non premier market. underscore_underscore_: Yep. Jaba: at least for cards that he could have gone to and kind of retained his value. Obviously his dad is he a hall yeah he is a hall of famer. dad was a Hall of Famer at second for them there. ⁓ he's kind of an older guy. I mean the Yankees took him in the third round. ⁓ he just turned twenty three at the end of the season. Kind of a jack of all trades, master of none type. Just really solid. ⁓ he was in high A all year again as a twenty two year old. underscore_underscore_: Yep. Yep. He is. Jaba: But, you know, he posted a seven ninety OPS, ⁓ only eight homers, twenty-four doubles, ⁓ doesn't really strike out, but also doesn't walk a ton, you know, good amount of steals, twenty-four steals. but he was hitting close to three hundred. He he hit two ninety-eight. Think he's just the profile of a guy who will make it there just based off of you know, being able to do the little things well, and you know, just be a solid, dependable player. You know, it's obvious Obviously the profile of a utility guy who probably debuts when he's twenty-five. but you know, he's not a throwaway, and I think, you know, not to discredit Caden Kent, ⁓ I'm not saying he's not a good player, but I think, you know, the cool fact that he's in the organization where his dad, you know, who was a Hall of Famer, put up his best years, is I th I think it'll keep him live, and I think he's one of those valuable role players that, you know, just doesn't really have hobby appeal. so yeah, I'm not I'm I'm not selling ⁓ but I'm not I'm not buying ⁓ underscore_underscore_: Yeah. No. Final four you got three elder statesmen and a twenty two year old. ⁓ Jaba: You like the ⁓ no. Never mind, Mendez is an older statesman. underscore_underscore_: He's he's twenty-four, Matthew Wood's twenty-five, Monaster actually Monaster is twenty-two, Namaro Choa is the youngest of them all. He's only twenty-one. Six foot four, two hundred and thirty. He's a mountain of a human. He was one of those kids, we saw him, he's from southern Texas. ⁓ kind of like up to ninety out of nowhere when he was fourteen, and huge, like a behemoth of a child. Miguel Mendez is up to like 100 with a wipeout slider. He's just been super inconsistent, but he's so cheap that it's not gonna take much for him to kind of figure it like to light flip a switch and maybe have some life within the market, especially in the AFL where there's not a lot of arms that we can highlight. At least that have Bowman cards. Matthew Woods, 25 years old with the Brewers in double A. Nick Monasser hit sub 200 this year for the Astros. He was in 25 Bowman, ⁓ 26 Bowman. Relatively cheap already, 20 bags, 580 OPS, kind of a light light hitting second baseman. ⁓ of these five ⁓ Mendez is ⁓ the most expensive at six dollars and ninety-two cents, and that's out of the newest product. I would buy some Mendez and I would probably go scoop some Neymar Ochoas just because what he did do this year is pretty impressive. He got promoted to high A late, hit three ⁓ five with a nine ⁓ nine OPS, six home runs and only twenty-eight games. Like there's something there. I don't know that it's gonna be a lot of anything, but there's something. And I know that's like terrible advice, but there's just there's enough there to keep me intrigued that the risk factor of it's like nothing. So probably I'm gonna go scoop up one or two just to have something. Because he could have that moment. Jaba: I I agree. I Yeah, like I I'm I I'm I'm looking at his ebay now and I think, you know, the four names you said, you know, if I'm buying one, I think it's definitely Ochoa. I mean, you obviously said he's a big guy, just to put a number on it. He's six four two thirty. I mean, he's you know, he's a tank. you know, the numbers aren't amazing, but they're good. you know what was it? Yeah. Half high A. like we said before, the Astros market is just kind of tough. And I think that that's something you need to keep in mind. ⁓ with their players. I don't know if it's just because people still hate them for the for the sign stealing or what, but it's definitely a a fact. But I think, you know, like Jeremy said, launching pad environment here. underscore_underscore_: Hmm. Jaba: pretty pretty easy for a guy that size with that raw power to go viral. And ⁓ if he does he certainly won't be at three bucks. You know, I'm not betting on him to become a thirty dollar auto. But you know, as we've kind of said in all these, that's not most players. And I I pretty firmly of those guys he's my he's my pick here. ⁓ so yeah, that wraps it up. I know underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Right. Yep. Yeah, and that more or that's just it. Jaba: I know we ⁓ we're probably gonna do an episode on Best Guys Without a Bowman Auto playing in the AFL. But I did wanna note you put here Braden Summerhill, ⁓ first rounder, outfielder. ⁓ first rounder in what, twenty five? ⁓ he's on the team, name to know. underscore_underscore_: Mm-hmm. Yeah. Yep. Jaba: But we'll get into that more ⁓ in its own in its own episode coming up here. So I think that closes out the Scorpions. Fun team, probably the second best one by a good margin. ⁓ you got anything else or underscore_underscore_: No, ⁓ it's gonna be a really fun team. A lot of talent, one to follow, obviously, not that we're gonna be watching every Scottsdale Scorpions game, but I wouldn't be surprised if a couple of these guys do see their numbers move up and with what a Cho is at for three dollars and thirty three cents, might be time to scoop a couple. Jaba: Yeah. Yep. Go by Braylon Pan. Thank you all for listening, ⁓ and we will talk to you next time. Go Mats and Scorps. underscore_underscore_: Go scorpes.