Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / V-Shaped Recovery Coming?📉Crypto Market Outlook

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V-Shaped Recovery Coming?📉Crypto Market Outlook · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Will the Clarity Act be a sell the news position
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: or could it justify a V shape recovery. Today we're
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: going to break it down for you. There's a lot
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: happening that will roll off of what's going on in
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: DC around the Clarity Act, and that of course is
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: getting into China and everything else. Will break it down.
• 0:15
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• 0:43
  Speaker 1: Let's go over to the first tweet right here. You
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: had Brian Armstrong up there in Capitol Hill pushing strong
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: to get this across the across the line. I think
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: with all the things that we're seeing though coming out
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: of crypto Twitter today, voting, the amount of amendments, the
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: amount of pushback from all industries, it appears that the
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: banks have activated. The real question is is how does
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: this come out of the markup. Many people are assuming
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: we'll get out of markup, but going to the centate
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: floor and winning that battle is going to be a
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: big one. So we're watching it very closely. Because of that,
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: many people are looking, well, how will the market respond?
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: And many people I think, are still looking at does
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: this get a quick pump and then immediate dump and
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: then maybe a potential market rising bull market? That is
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: where I'm feeling right now. I don't necessarily think we
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: will see massive moves after Clarity goes through. I do
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: think we'll see some net positives for the market, but
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: I just don't know that we'll see massive moves. What
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: I am anticipating, though, is that we will see every
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: tracement in the traditional finance markets, which of course could
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: put some pressure on risk, which is where this could
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: play out and open up some opportunities for buying. For
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: many of you who are brand new crypto right now,
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: that might be what you're waiting on. Let me know
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: in the comments if that is in fact what you're waiting.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: Are you waiting for the next dump to get in
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: to the market, Let me know and does clarity hinge
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: on you doing that. Let's go over to this because
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: you've got CPI was bad yesterday. Well, the PPI numbers
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: are even more severe, and we're talking about a PPI
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: inflation rising to six percent versus what was expected at
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: four point six percent the previous four This is the
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: highest since January twenty three. And markets are pretty much
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: taking the queue on this. And you look at this,
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: you kind of and this is the Producer Price Index,
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: which is the PPI. Billello kind of hits it right here.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: This has been for the past five years at four
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: point seven year of a year, so it has been
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: a significant part of how the FED is trying to
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: control This is part of inflation. And his statement, Fed's
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: lost all credibility when it comes to inflation if we
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: can't get it to two percent, which is an inflation myth.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: I think a lot of these data points are so
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: overblown or underblown in many ways that it is difficult
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: to really disdain what is accurate and what is not.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: So that's the problem right now, Bitcoin breaking below eighty
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: k on PPI shock. This of course, is possibly getting
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: bitcoin further down in terms of a price adjustment The
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: real question is does it make it all the way
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: to seventy two seventy three. That are some of the
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: windows that people are looking at. I think this is
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: going to be a signal right now, but really what
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: it boils down to is how does this come out,
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: being clarity come out of the Senate and what kind
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: of impact that's going to have on the market in general.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: A couple other things are going to have impact on
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  Speaker 1: the market. Is going to be oil. You got oil's
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: price right now surging to one hundred and four a barrel.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: This of course is in reference to peace talk stalling
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: between the US and Iran, which is the nacho trade
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: now and oil prices up seventeen percent from the low
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  Speaker 1: that we've seen after we saw a little bit of
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: adjustments last week, and now it's just continuing to climb.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: Trump is heading over to China. I've got a clip
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: here that gives a little bit of understanding about the
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: pressure that this is going to mean around this meeting.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: Take a look, let's talk about the data. How much
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: pressure is on this administration to do something about these numbers?
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: Well, I think a lot more, and I'm certainly if
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: you're the White House or you're the Treasury secretary who
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: just had a meeting today with the Chinese ahead of
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: the summit tomorrow between President and Trump and Shijing Ping.
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: This PPI data certainly is going to catch your eye,
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: especially when it comes to the fact that this administration
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: in some recent polls has really been underwater when it
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: comes to the handling of the economy, and prices are
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: just inching up and becoming almost on a four for
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: some Americans when it comes to oil prices especially, there
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: is something this administration could ask China to do at
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: the table One potentially puts some pressure on the Iranian
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: regime to open up at the trader Horn moves. But
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: also China has one point four billion barrels of cruded
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: stockpiles for some contacts. That's more than the United States
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: and eight of the other major players when it comes
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: to stockpiling of crude combined. They can maybe asked the
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: Chinese to release some of those barrels into the market
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: to ease some of these pressures. But certainly, Jonathan, the
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: domestic pressure just got a whole lot bigger for this
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: president as he steps down in Beijing.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: All right, So domestic pressure Trump on the carpet there
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: with Jijiping and heading into these meetings. The question is
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: what will be the takeaway if you look a list
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: at a list of the businesses that are heading over there.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: Of course you've got Musk, Cook, Fink, You've got Blackstone, Goldman,
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: Sachs owing their city group quite a bit in terms
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: of a roster. One name though that was missing was
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: Jensen Wang, And of course right there it is Trump says, Hey,
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: we're going to get the in Nvidia on the on
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: the truck, so they're just going to pick him up
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: on the way. That's crazy, these these kind of things
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: that are happening right now. And I don't know, we're
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: going to see some impact because there was a lot
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: of finance integrations that are heading there, and I think
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: that is something to keep an eye on because they
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: are shoring up their position for the Chinese markets and
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: that's something that I think will continue to see h
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: in terms of importance. Uh in Nvidia now worth more
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: than the GDP of every country in the world except
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: the US and China. This is insane, that's how much, guys,
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: we are seeing the AI play move into really a
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: global phenomenon that is not slowing down. And the real
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: question is how does this play out, you know, to
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: the bottom line of what Beijing is going to want
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: all so what the US is going to want. I've
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: got a clip for you on this one. Take a look.
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: In Alaska, the President added a surprise extra visitor to
• 7:07
  Speaker 3: the Air Force one delegation, picking up Jensen Wong of Nvidia,
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: was not on an initial list of guests. A whole
• 7:14
  Speaker 3: list of high powered American CEOs coming here to Beijing.
• 7:19
  Speaker 3: And this, Morgan, very much is going to be a
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: story of change, right. This is a change from the
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  Speaker 3: last meeting of these two leaders in Busan, South Korea,
• 7:28
  Speaker 3: where this was expected to be mostly about trade. Now
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: we have the Iran War that's happened since then, and
• 7:36
  Speaker 3: this is much, very much going to be about trying
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: to come up with some way to have a path
• 7:42
  Speaker 3: forward in Iran as well as trade, so trying to
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  Speaker 3: solve two wars at once.
• 7:47
  Speaker 4: Well, Morgan, as fixated as President Trump is on trade,
• 7:51
  Speaker 4: President c is equally focused on Taiwan. The Chinese today
• 7:56
  Speaker 4: reiterated their priority in this summit in a lengthy rapport
• 8:01
  Speaker 4: in the People's Daily, the official paper. It reads the
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  Speaker 4: Taiwan issue is the most important and sensitive core issue
• 8:09
  Speaker 4: in China US relations. Clearly defining the bottom line is
• 8:13
  Speaker 4: precisely a responsible commitment to prevent serious risks.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: All right. So you've got the Chinese wanting Taiwan pretty
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: much or at least some sort of pathway there, the
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: US trying to shore up the idea of commerce, and
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  Speaker 1: I think this is a real line in the sand
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: because one is really more around structural power. Remember, Taiwan
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: one of the well the largest chip manufacturing facilities globally
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: have a lot of impact on global trade when it
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: comes to semiconductors and tech. So keep an eye on
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: that because this will become part of the negotiation. And
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: the real question is what is this going to look
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  Speaker 1: like On the backside of this meeting, Trump and She
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: are now expected to weigh tariff cuts also, so you've
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: got thirty billion of imports that will play into this.
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  Speaker 1: All right, So let's go into a clip real quick.
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  Speaker 1: This will break down where expectations are coming, at least
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: for companies and what will happen afterwards. Take a look.
• 9:11
  Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, Morgan, I think honestly, if you talk
• 9:13
  Speaker 3: to CEOs and I talked to a lot of CEOs
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: in the US before we left for this trip. The
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: expectation level here is very, very low. There's not a
• 9:21
  Speaker 3: big expectation in corporate America that there's going to be
• 9:23
  Speaker 3: some sort of trade breakthrough here. What they're hoping for,
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: I think, if you talk to a lot of executives,
• 9:28
  Speaker 3: is just a continuation of the sort of trade truth
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: that was reached in Busson back in October. They're hoping
• 9:35
  Speaker 3: for maybe some announcement of sales Boeing aircraft, soybeans, that
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: sort of thing, and maybe no big diplomatic faux paa
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: between the two leaders or flashpoint of any kind. They
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: don't see a major breakthrough because both sides have an
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: incentive to continue to push for global market share.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: There it is both sides pushing for global market share,
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: which sets up the macro that we have a new
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: FED share coming in on. And this is what he's
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: facing right now. Because a chair pals term ends Friday,
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: we will see the next FED chair meeting on the
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: sixteenth of June. Seventeenth of June, the macro setups right now.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: He's got a current FED target rated at three and
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: a half to three seven five April CPI came into
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: three eight year over year, so that's the highest reading
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: since May of twenty three. And then you have markets
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: pricing in about a one to three chance of a
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: rate hike one in three.
• 10:28
  Speaker 4: Four.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: December is first FOMC meeting is going to be a
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: busy one. We'll cover that here live. If you're not
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: subscribed to the show, do that right now, hit that
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: little bell because when we do these live streams, it'll
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: give you a notification when we cover all of this
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: and get you guys updated on what's happening with the
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: FED side of things. I want to go into where
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: this inevitably will be for the FED, because everything is
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: pointing to do we get a print? That is really
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: the core question. Here's Arthur Hayes and the US markets.
• 11:01
  Speaker 5: Are they need this foreign did if of assets to
• 11:04
  Speaker 5: have these lofty prices. These lofty prices get people capital,
• 11:07
  Speaker 5: gain taxes. This funds the government, and so without this
• 11:11
  Speaker 5: capital flowing into the United States, there's an issue with
• 11:14
  Speaker 5: how the government funds itself. Interest rates go up, the
• 11:18
  Speaker 5: cost of debt goes up, equity prices go down, people
• 11:21
  Speaker 5: feel less wealthy, they spend less, and so this really
• 11:23
  Speaker 5: affects the US economy. And so my thesis is that
• 11:27
  Speaker 5: you know, Bessen and whoever is the chairman of the
• 11:30
  Speaker 5: FED will print enough money to make sure that this
• 11:33
  Speaker 5: foreign selling on a secular basis that does not impact
• 11:37
  Speaker 5: up only for US asset markets, all right.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: So not up only if you look at this right
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: now in terms of what bess In situation is and
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: whether or not we get a FED that starts to
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: go into a printing field right now. Arthur Hays also
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: says spiking tenure treasure yields will force Trump to bring
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: home a deal with China. Otherwise the wheels are going
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: to fall off of trad FI. So could we be
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: in a position if these markets fully melt down based
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: on what's happening in China? Is there an opportunity here
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: to buy in at a lower spot. Let me know
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: what you guys are gonna do down below. We'll cover
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: this and more becaus clarity is heating up. If you
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: like this video, h like and subscribe, drop a comment
• 12:22
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• 12:26
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