Latest / HPK Provident Advisors: The Weekly Bull / Tech Earnings, Oil Shock, And What Investors Do Next

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Tech Earnings, Oil Shock, And What Investors Do Next · HPK Provident Advisors: The Weekly Bull

• 0:04
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome to Friday Live.
• 0:06
  SPEAKER_01: Every Friday, some of the partners of HPK Provenant get together and discuss what we're seeing going on in the markets, the economy, and tying in some financial planning topics.
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_01: So with me today is David Harper.
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_01: David, how are you doing today?
• 0:17
  SPEAKER_02: Good morning, Mike.
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_02: Good morning, all.
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_02: It is uh the sun shines.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_02: We had rainbows last night, a lot of rain.
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_02: Uh that's okay.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_02: Uh we could use some rain down here.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I hope you're doing better than tech stocks today.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_02: Yes, we are.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_01: Although they are off of the lows, let's take a look here.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_01: Uh yeah, actually, it's only it's down less triple Q is down less than half a percent now.
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_01: It was exceeding one percent at one point.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so I think uh, I mean, besides the the China competition coming out last week, which kind of started this whole thing, um, I I think tech stocks are kind of looking for reassurance from the ones that reported this week.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_01: We had uh Alphabet and Tesla, um big blue, even though they already uh gave their big surprise last week.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but basically, um with Alphabet, the cloud growth was strong, but market's not liking the CapEx spend.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_01: It's a little too high.
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_02: Um well, we it's had a great run, and it probably needs to be a little trimmed.
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_02: Uh uh that euphoric that uh past uh Fed chairman's used to speak of.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_02: Uh they would tamp it down with uh possibly some more realistic ideas, idea.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_02: So yeah.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_01: You would you would think with the increase in CapEx and all those companies that semis would be doing a little better, but they've they felt the brunt of this recent pull down.
• 2:01
  SPEAKER_01: I think they're down about nine percent on the month.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so I mean this the chart's kind of breaking down here on the NASDAQ.
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_01: We're below the 100-day moving average.
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_01: Uh we do have some support here, but momentum indicators are are flashing, warning signals.
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_01: Um SP looks a little better, but also below the 100-day moving average.
• 2:24
  SPEAKER_01: Um at equal weights actually doing better.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_01: Um, I was looking at the performance yesterday in our accounts, and we did not have the big drawdown that the the um market weight cap SP 500 did.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_01: So that's always good to see.
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_01: Um, that's that's the benefit of diversification.
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_01: But there's a lot of uh a lot of things I'm not liking here.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_01: Um the 10-year, near year-to-date highs, crude oil is I think just shy of 90 a barrel.
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_01: Um good news is high yield spreads haven't risen, so it's not really uh an economic concern at this point, but uh I I don't know.
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_01: I don't like oil being that high.
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_01: And I believe that Iranian uh rejected the ceasefire talks that were happening in the past 24 hours.
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_01: So looks like more escalation.
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_01: Um, we're continuing to send bombs and hit different infrastructure and that kind of thing.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_01: So I don't know, not necessarily a good thing.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_01: We do get a Fed meeting next week.
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_01: Um, I think markets are pricing in a 30% chance of a rate hike, which uh I mean, if things stayed at this level, I would say okay, I see that, but it's been so volatile.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, it's been oil was at wild swing like two weeks ago.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_01: So I I think he's gonna, I think the new Fed chair is gonna side on the more on the pause stance.
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_01: Um, I think it's too risky to do a rate hike when you just don't know what's gonna happen next week.
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_02: Uh our our world changes uh not just daily, but by morning, afternoon, or evening.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, we've seen that in our stock market for a number of years, where what looks good in the morning, uh, you still have four we right now, today we still have four more hours of trading going on.
• 4:33
  SPEAKER_01: That is true.
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_01: It's it's been all over the place.
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_02: Well, the idea is again, we're not traders, we are investors.
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_02: Um, and I I guess we can't stress that enough.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, that's why we have Mike that does the day-to-day and and looks at trends and so forth.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_02: Um, and thank you, Mike, for doing that for us and our clients.
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_02: Um, but again, we're not day traders, we are not.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_02: Um, we don't trade on the ups and downs.
• 5:04
  SPEAKER_02: We just look at the what is the value of the company, and we do that fundamental analysis, and all of these uh clicks you see up and down, up and down, that gives Mike the technical background of when to buy, when to sell.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, we certainly don't day trade, but we are opportunistic and take advantage of different drawdowns.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so we did pick up a new position in the retirement accounts uh, I guess last Friday.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_01: Um, it was looking good, and now we're kind of backed flat on that one.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_01: So no, no decision at this point.
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_01: We're gonna stay the course with that one.
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_01: Um, we should get a bounce at some point here.
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_01: Um but besides that, there wasn't a lot of economic data this week.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_01: Uh we had some housing data that was decent that came out today, new home sales, uh building permits.
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, and then besides that, claims, jobless claims remain pretty low.
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, they came in 187,000, so that's good.
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_01: Uh last month was, or consensus, I should say, was 215,000.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_01: And then we had the leading economic indicators, I think on Monday, which came in negative 0.2%.
• 6:15
  SPEAKER_01: So that was a surprise to the downside.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_01: Um, next week we will get a pickup in economic activity.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_01: Um, we'll get uh let's see here, we get the personal income numbers, personal spending, which are both expected to decelerate.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_01: Um, like I said, the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, we'll get claims as always, as well as the PC deflator on uh I guess that's also on Wednesday.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_01: Um, those numbers, core is expected to decelerate to 3.3%.
• 6:49
  SPEAKER_01: That's a tenth lower, and the headlines expected to come in at 3.7 down from 4.1.
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so those, I mean, they're good, but they're dated.
• 7:01
  SPEAKER_01: Energy's a big driver of inflation.
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_02: So yeah, yeah.
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_02: Are you are you telling me, Mike, that uh good news is peppered with uh not so good news on a regular basis?
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_02: Is that what you're telling me?
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_02: Sometimes.
• 7:17
  SPEAKER_01: And outside of economic activity, it's gonna be a big week for earnings.
• 7:22
  SPEAKER_01: Um like I said, it it's off to a mixed start.
• 7:26
  SPEAKER_01: The banks are good.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_01: The I mean the tech tech wasn't bad, but like I mentioned, the CapEx was a big concern.
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_01: Um, next week on Wednesday, we'll get the M's, Microsoft and Meta, and Thursday we'll get the A's, Alphabet and Amazon.
• 7:43
  SPEAKER_02: Or Apple.
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_01: Apple and Apple, yeah, not Alphabet.
• 7:47
  SPEAKER_01: They reported already.
• 7:49
  SPEAKER_02: Okay.
• 7:51
  SPEAKER_02: I like MA's.
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_01: MA's.
• 7:56
  SPEAKER_01: Um, we didn't have many blog posts for the week.
• 7:58
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, we had one come out this morning about transitioning into retirement.
• 8:03
  SPEAKER_01: Um, you deal with a lot of clients over the last 30 years that have made that transition.
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_01: What advice do you give to them?
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, it's it's a big change for someone.
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_02: One of the biggest things we said is take uh uh take a vacation.
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_02: Uh when you get ready to retirement, you know, take a break right then and there and just relax, enjoy your time uh once you made that determination, and that sort of like sets the mood for your for your for your change of lifestyle.
• 8:42
  SPEAKER_02: Okay.
• 8:42
  SPEAKER_02: Um and sometimes you just need to get away.
• 8:45
  SPEAKER_02: You need to get out of your house, you need to get away from your environments, uh, go on a vacation.
• 8:50
  SPEAKER_01: Um yeah, and that's good advice.
• 8:53
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I think a lot of people that are entering that retirement stage are a little hesitant to spend money not knowing what the future holds, but um, I think you need to travel while you still have the desire and capability to.
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, yes.
• 9:07
  SPEAKER_02: Well, but just just get your head screwed on strain.
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_02: Um, I guess I'm a big believer in like use of vacations as as retreats, where you take a along a pen and paper, you sit down with your spouse, and you have a uh just a check of where our where we are at this point in time, and we take a look at where we want to go and uh steps we need to do to get you there, okay, to attain that.
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_02: Uh it's always a good exercise.
• 9:42
  SPEAKER_02: Um, while you're I mean, we personally like uh cruise ships, um, go on a cruise and and sometime during that one afternoon while you were sipping on some uh uh margaritas or some um pina coladas, you know, take out that pen and paper and say, here's what we here's what's good, here's where we're at.
• 10:03
  SPEAKER_02: Let's take a look uh at where we want to go and and map it out.
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_02: Relax.
• 10:10
  SPEAKER_02: Um yes.
• 10:13
  SPEAKER_01: I and I I like to think that the clients that we work with feel a little better about the financials and being able to take those trips because we go into those details in the financial planning process.
• 10:24
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, we'll tell you if you don't have enough money to go to Europe for three weeks.
• 10:29
  SPEAKER_02: But you might you might want to reconsider that that kind of thing.
• 10:35
  SPEAKER_02: Uh so you know, Mike, I've had retreats where I've actually contacted a monastery and just used their their chapel uh for a day or and and just did retreats like that.
• 10:51
  SPEAKER_02: Those do not cost much money.
• 10:54
  SPEAKER_02: Uh is it a time to get away from your house?
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_02: Yes, is it a time to just uh unwind?
• 10:59
  SPEAKER_02: Absolutely, and so you you don't have to do large ticket items just to make um that that retreat type uh piece, yeah.
• 11:13
  SPEAKER_01: Like July 4th, I went camping.
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_01: That was a cheap trip.
• 11:19
  SPEAKER_02: And and how how how refreshing was that?
• 11:22
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, it's great.
• 11:23
  SPEAKER_01: Just disconnect from everything and be in nature, beautiful scenery.
• 11:28
  SPEAKER_02: Yes, yeah, so uh there's a lot of value in doing that.
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_02: So uh sometimes we get too busy being busy.
• 11:40
  SPEAKER_02: That sounds strange.
• 11:42
  SPEAKER_02: Uh I have this great great quote for you, Mike, and that sort of like fits in with what we're talking about.
• 11:47
  SPEAKER_02: It's from Stephen Covey.
• 11:48
  SPEAKER_02: Stephen Covey was that had that author that did all those seven habits of successful people, seven habits of of great people.
• 11:58
  SPEAKER_02: You know, uh he had a whole slew of those books, and they were very popular about 15-20 years ago.
• 12:04
  SPEAKER_02: So his quote, and this is what he believes, whether it's apropos to your situation, you can take that on yourself.
• 12:11
  SPEAKER_02: Okay, but I think there's a lot of wisdom in it.
• 12:13
  SPEAKER_02: And his quote is, you know, I am I am a product of my I am not a product of my circumstances, I am a product of my decisions.
• 12:25
  SPEAKER_02: Okay, so that fits right in with what we were saying of take a break, you know, uh, even on an annual basis, uh, on a when you get ready for retirement or when you're in retirement, uh take that step to uh sort of like jettison that idea of victimhood.
• 12:46
  SPEAKER_02: Um we know we don't have any control over the stock market, we don't have any control over uh circumstances that that happen, okay.
• 12:56
  SPEAKER_02: But I don't have we don't have to be uh pigeonholed uh by those circumstances.
• 13:03
  SPEAKER_02: We can make decisions and financial plans and so forth to go beyond that, and that's where he says, you know, I am more a product of my decisions, make wise decisions, and if you need assistance and helping uh to talk through with someone, we are available.
• 13:23
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that's that's well said.
• 13:25
  SPEAKER_01: You can't control whether the stock market's gonna go down 15%, but you can control how you position into that.
• 13:33
  SPEAKER_02: And that's great uh advice, not just for financial affairs, but uh life in general.
• 13:41
  SPEAKER_02: Do you have control over uh uh you have control to vote?
• 13:47
  SPEAKER_02: Uh but uh your your vote and everyone else's vote is who determines uh who is who are our leaders.
• 13:58
  SPEAKER_02: So take your take your time and assess and make wise decisions.
• 14:07
  SPEAKER_01: I think that was the only actual blog post that went out for the week.
• 14:11
  SPEAKER_01: Uh we did have some emails go out.
• 14:13
  SPEAKER_01: Do you want to touch on them at all?
• 14:14
  SPEAKER_02: I like those emails.
• 14:16
  SPEAKER_02: Those were really good.
• 14:17
  SPEAKER_02: Uh part of the uh making wise decisions.
• 14:20
  SPEAKER_02: When do you when do you turn on your social security?
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_02: Well, uh Brian Peluso is our resident expert on social security matters.
• 14:30
  SPEAKER_02: Um, I we we defer to his expertise.
• 14:34
  SPEAKER_02: He's on vacation now, and he a greatly deserved vacation.
• 14:38
  SPEAKER_02: Um I'm sure knowing Brian, he's probably he's not taking this.
• 14:45
  SPEAKER_01: You can't keep that guy from working.
• 14:49
  SPEAKER_02: Uh uh yeah, yeah.
• 14:53
  SPEAKER_02: Um, but uh it's a fabulous piece.
• 14:57
  SPEAKER_02: We recommend you you read it.
• 14:59
  SPEAKER_02: Uh and um anything having to do with social security pieces, reach out to us.
• 15:04
  SPEAKER_02: Um and we'll refer you to Brian.
• 15:07
  SPEAKER_02: Okay.
• 15:10
  SPEAKER_02: And uh the other one, it was a video uh mic that came out to our emails.
• 15:15
  SPEAKER_02: And uh sometimes videos are a whole lot more fun uh than listening to us speak or or read our words.
• 15:24
  SPEAKER_02: So uh we encourage you to look at those emails and and reach out to us.
• 15:29
  SPEAKER_02: We'd love to hear from you.
• 15:31
  SPEAKER_02: And we are we're we're available to live our own lives, uh, and part of it, and we're happy that you are in our lives.
• 15:44
  SPEAKER_01: And happy belated birthday to your father-in-law and the guy that started this company, yeah, Ron, who turned 98?
• 15:53
  SPEAKER_02: 98 on two on Wednesday.
• 15:55
  SPEAKER_02: Wow.
• 15:56
  SPEAKER_02: 98 on Wednesday.
• 15:58
  SPEAKER_02: Uh great legacy.
• 16:01
  SPEAKER_02: Um, and he's he's a joy to joy to be around.
• 16:05
  SPEAKER_02: Okay.
• 16:05
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, it's he's pretty comical.
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_02: Okay.
• 16:11
  SPEAKER_02: Um yeah uh we have we have um uh other news coming up next week, Mike.
• 16:19
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_01: A lot of our clients.
• 16:21
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I already mentioned the Fed meeting.
• 16:22
  SPEAKER_01: What else could there be?
• 16:24
  SPEAKER_01: Four Mac7 companies reporting.
• 16:28
  SPEAKER_02: Yep.
• 16:29
  SPEAKER_02: And and there's gonna be about 30 NFL, 30, 32 NFL teams reporting to uh training camp next week.
• 16:37
  SPEAKER_01: Well, you enjoy that.
• 16:39
  SPEAKER_02: Those dealers.
• 16:41
  SPEAKER_02: Okay, yes, City.
• 16:43
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 16:43
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I'm gonna flip on the disclosures and we'll be back next week to break down all the earnings and the economic data in the the Fed meeting.
• 16:51
  SPEAKER_01: So it'll be an exciting week.
• 16:53
  SPEAKER_02: Yes, sorry.
• 16:55
  SPEAKER_02: You have a good weekend, Mike.
• 16:57
  SPEAKER_00: You too.
• 16:58
  SPEAKER_00: Security is offered through LPL Financial LLC, member FINRA, and SIPC.org.
• 17:03
  SPEAKER_00: Advisory services offered through LPL Financial LLC, a registered investment advisor.
• 17:09
  SPEAKER_00: Brian Peluso, Michael Kutch, and David Harper are registered representatives of LPL Financial LLC.
• 17:15
  SPEAKER_00: Content discussed is for informational purposes only and not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or investment strategy.
• 17:24
  SPEAKER_00: Any opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial or its affiliates.
• 17:30
  SPEAKER_00: All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal.
• 17:35
  SPEAKER_00: This communication may include links or references to third-party websites.
• 17:38
  SPEAKER_00: These links are provided as a convenience only.
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  SPEAKER_00: LPL Financial and its representatives are not responsible for the accuracy or content of such sites.
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  SPEAKER_00: Brian, Mike, and David and HBK Profit Advisors may only transact business in states where they are properly registered or exempt from registration.
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  SPEAKER_00: Past performance is not indicative of future results.
• 18:05
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