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Putin pauses strikes as US envoys shuttle between Moscow and Kyiv · DEEP INSIGHT

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  Speaker 1: Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered a three-day halt to
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  Speaker 1: strikes on Kyiv as he meets with US envoys to
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  Speaker 1: discuss a possible peace deal for Ukraine. Putin has been
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  Speaker 1: meeting in the Kremlin with Donald Trump's businessman friend Steve
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  Speaker 1: Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner to discuss a plan with
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  Speaker 1: Putin to end Russia's war against Ukraine. The two envoys
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  Speaker 1: arrived earlier in the day. They are later set to
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  Speaker 1: make their first ever trip to Ukraine to meet with
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  Speaker 1: President Zelensky on Sunday.
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  Speaker 2: They must thank President Trump.
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  Speaker 1: And Jana Kobseva is co-director of the European Security Programme
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  Speaker 1: and senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations,
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  Speaker 1: joining us today from Bratislava.
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  Speaker 2: Welcome to you.
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  Speaker 1: Now, Witkow and Kushner are in Moscow tomorrow. They're going
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  Speaker 1: to go to Ukraine. Look, various peace efforts have failed before.
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  Speaker 1: Why do you think these ones are happening now?
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  Speaker 3: Well, I think they come on the back of quite
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  Speaker 3: a break from talks. The last such meeting happened in
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  Speaker 3: February earlier this year. And as you mentioned, these are
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  Speaker 3: President Trump's two favorite negotiators that he sends to a
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  Speaker 3: number of other conflicts.
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  Speaker 4: Seems they've been quite busy with the one in Iran.
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  Speaker 3: But I also think on a more serious note, this
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  Speaker 3: is happening after a summer that has been one.
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  Speaker 4: Of the most devastating for Ukraine's civilians.
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  Speaker 3: So the efforts to start and look into a possible
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  Speaker 3: solution to the war are actually quite in order and
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  Speaker 3: should be happening as we speak.
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  Speaker 1: And given what you've just said, is there any reason
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  Speaker 1: to be hopeful about these talks?
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  Speaker 3: I'm afraid the talks, the prospects are quite dim, partly
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  Speaker 3: because both sides, but especially President Putin, still thinks he
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  Speaker 3: can just push forward militarily.
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  Speaker 4: So he's unlikely to make any big compromises.
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  Speaker 3: And at the same time, the Ukrainians, even under the
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  Speaker 3: pressure they are under at the moment, believe that the
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  Speaker 3: compromises they have offered already, including a ceasefire, no claims
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  Speaker 3: to the territory that Russia is currently occupied, not giving
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  Speaker 3: it up, are things that they cannot just compromise on
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  Speaker 3: at the moment. So I do think that ahead of winter,
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  Speaker 3: which I'm afraid Putin is going to use to try
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  Speaker 3: to destroy even more of Ukraine, he will be quite
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  Speaker 3: unwilling to. to make those compromises unless he faces more pressure.
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  Speaker 3: And the reason why I'm saying that I'm not very
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  Speaker 3: hopeful about the talks is that for now, the US
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  Speaker 3: envoys and President Trump himself have been very happy to
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  Speaker 3: dangle some of the carrots, but very few sticks when
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  Speaker 3: it comes to Putin himself. And I think that unless
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  Speaker 3: he faces more pressure, he is unlikely to compromise.
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  Speaker 1: What do you think this trip is about? What's on
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  Speaker 1: the table? Is it about concrete discussions like territory concessions
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  Speaker 1: or security guarantees? Or is it more about maybe trying
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  Speaker 1: to restart some kind of conversation?
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  Speaker 4: I think it's the latter.
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  Speaker 3: It's an attempt to restart a conversation which I think
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  Speaker 3: everybody feels has kind of partly run out of steam
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  Speaker 3: after Presidents Trump and Putin met last year in Alaska.
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  Speaker 3: The Russian side always talks about a degree of understanding
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  Speaker 3: which they had reached or they claimed they had reached
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  Speaker 3: with the U.S. in terms of what would a possible
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  Speaker 3: settlement look like. For reasons we can discuss, that settlement
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  Speaker 3: hasn't happened. I think part of that is that the U.S.
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  Speaker 3: was probably quick to agree to something which neither the
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  Speaker 3: Ukrainians nor the Europeans were willing to agree to. meaning
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  Speaker 3: ceding quite a few of the red lines that Kyiv
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  Speaker 3: is unwilling and Europeans are unwilling to make. So that's
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  Speaker 3: why I'm saying I think it's a good way of
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  Speaker 3: testing the ground. But I do think that unless more pressure,
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  Speaker 3: Putin doesn't feel he needs to concede any ground himself.
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  Speaker 1: You hinted at this before, but I'd like to press
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  Speaker 1: on this a little bit more. According to reporting by Axios,
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  Speaker 1: Ukrainian officials say they've got intelligence that Putin could be
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  Speaker 1: preparing a new offensive in northern Ukraine. Is Russia talking
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  Speaker 1: to the Americans in good faith, or do you think
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  Speaker 1: they're just buying time for that?
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  Speaker 3: I think we'll need to judge it by the real
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  Speaker 3: steps that Kremlin is doing. And for the moment, despite
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  Speaker 3: all these talks and all the meetings, including at the
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  Speaker 3: very top level between President Trump and President Putin, the
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  Speaker 3: results on the ground are such that doesn't seem very
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  Speaker 3: hopeful that the Russians would stop the war anytime soon.
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  Speaker 3: So I think it would point to the fact that
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  Speaker 3: Putin is probably just buying time for one simple reason.
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  Speaker 3: Ever since the war in Iran started with the United States,
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  Speaker 3: Ukraine has faced a huge lack of ballistic missiles interceptors.
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  Speaker 3: Ballistic missiles are the ones missiles that the Russians are
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  Speaker 3: continuing to produce. And I think, and I worry that
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  Speaker 3: this is something that Putin wants to use, especially ahead
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  Speaker 3: of this winter, to pummel and destroy most of Ukraine
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  Speaker 3: into submission. So as you said, you know, if you
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  Speaker 3: have that kind of advantage, or if you think you
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  Speaker 3: have that kind of advantage, you can talk to the
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  Speaker 3: US envoys, but unless you feel under pressure, you think
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  Speaker 3: you can buy time. And I do think that, and
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  Speaker 3: I do worry that this is the logic President Putin
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  Speaker 3: is pursuing for now.
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  Speaker 1: Great speaking with you, Jana. That was Jana Kopsava at
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  Speaker 1: the European Council on Foreign Relations.
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  Speaker 3: Thank you.
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  Speaker 4: Thank you.
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  Speaker 2: DW correspondent Victoria Tarantieva is standing by for us in Riga. Hello, Victoria. So,
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  Speaker 2: Witkow and Kushner are in Moscow trying to reach a
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  Speaker 2: peace deal. Why now?
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  Speaker 5: So the timing of this visit suggests that Washington believes
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  Speaker 5: there might be some opening for diplomacy after all months
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  Speaker 5: of stalemate. And Trump said recently that U.S. has what
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  Speaker 5: he called an idea for a peace and that his envoys,
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  Speaker 5: Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, are bringing the proposal to
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  Speaker 5: the Kremlin.
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  Speaker 3: But in Moscow, we.
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  Speaker 5: Should say they see all this visit and proposal, which
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  Speaker 5: is being brought to the Kremlin, quite with some cautiousness,
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  Speaker 5: because Kremlin has refused to say what the Americans are
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  Speaker 5: really bringing to the table, what proposals, if any. And
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  Speaker 5: Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, has said that it's too early
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  Speaker 5: to discuss proposals before the envoys meet Putin later today.
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  Speaker 5: And according to Peskov, the previous meetings with Putin also
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  Speaker 5: were quite lengthy, so we might have some patience to
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  Speaker 5: have to see what comes out. And perhaps what's also
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  Speaker 5: important is that the Russian officials sign that Russia is
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  Speaker 5: not ready to soften its... because senior Russian officials ahead
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  Speaker 5: of their visit of Trump's invoice to Moscow have said
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  Speaker 5: that Moscow believes Russia has advantage on the battlefield, and
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  Speaker 5: that should be seen in any future peace talks with
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  Speaker 5: the U.S.
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  Speaker 3: That should be.
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  Speaker 5: Considered, according to Russian officials, because they say this is
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  Speaker 5: the reality on the battleground. Right.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, this is probably why there's been no breakthrough
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  Speaker 2: so far. There's been so many peace efforts that have failed.
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  Speaker 2: Is there any reason to be hopeful this time?
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  Speaker 5: We, of course, we might have reasons to be hopeful
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  Speaker 5: because this is the first time when Trump's envoy's will
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  Speaker 5: go to Kyiv after the Moscow meeting with Putin. And
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  Speaker 5: that means Kyiv has not seen the Trump's envoys before.
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  Speaker 5: And perhaps the Trump's envoys would be bringing something from Moscow.
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  Speaker 5: They could see where is the gap or where is
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  Speaker 5: some overlap in the positions of two countries, which so
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  Speaker 5: far were quite far from each other. Right.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, look, we've seen Russia and Ukraine both stepping
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  Speaker 2: up attacks in recent weeks. Does either side believe it
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  Speaker 2: can still make major gains on the battlefield?
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  Speaker 5: So we see that Russia is quite confident that... the
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  Speaker 5: pressure on Ukrainian infrastructure in Ukrainian cities ahead of the
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  Speaker 5: winter and also ahead of the fall, trying to fight
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  Speaker 5: air defense could kind of force Kyiv into more difficult
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  Speaker 5: position over the peace talks. Ukraine, on the other side,
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  Speaker 5: on the other hand, meanwhile, is also trying to reinforce
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  Speaker 5: its strikes inside Russia therefore showing that Russia and Moscow
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  Speaker 5: in particular is also vulnerable. So both sides, nobody is
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  Speaker 5: having a momentum in the war. Nobody is having a
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  Speaker 5: distinct victory on the battlefield.
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  Speaker 4: And still, that is.
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  Speaker 5: Why the diplomacy is maybe even more important than before. Right.
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  Speaker 2: Victoria Tarantieva in Riga.
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  Speaker 4: Thank you very much.