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Chuck's Commentary - Iran & Collapsing Economy Are Sinking Trump's Presidency · The Chuck ToddCast

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  Speaker 1: Hello thereon, Welcome to the Monday episode of the check podcast.
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  Speaker 1: It is our first one for I guess it's not
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  Speaker 1: calendar spring because we haven't hit calendar spring yet. I
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: think meteorological spring has already happened. So I guess we
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: have the government control version of spring, meaning Congress decided
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: to set this ridiculously early version of daylight savings into
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: early March, and so here we are. But I have
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: to tell you it actually is coinciding with our first
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: seventy degrees, sort of multiple seventy degree to days in
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  Speaker 1: a row. So what does this mean? Short sleeves, actual
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: short sleeves. I'm not ready to put the quarter zip,
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: the long sleep quarter zips in the mothballs just yet. Mothballs.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: I am probably dating myself. I don't know anybody uses
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: mouthballs anymore, but I go back. It's a distinct smell
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: of my old great grandmother's house back in the day,
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: the smell of mothballs and protecting all of her winter clothes.
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  Speaker 1: But I digress. Here we are a tad bit of
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: a wardrobe change, so we've got good fun there. But hey,
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: it hasn't been a light weekend, and that's the thing
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: we are in. We are in some heavy days these days,
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  Speaker 1: and it doesn't look like it's going to get lighter
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  Speaker 1: anytime soon. Let me give you a quick rundown. Got
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: sort of a big picture, sort of big picture sort
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: of political analysis for sort of the moment we're in,
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: the moment, the president's in the moment, the Republican Party
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: is in. My interview today is none other than ken Burn's.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: I booked him a while ago, back during when the
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: American Revolution. It was sort of peeking and interested people
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: were downloading, but we went bigger than that. We talked
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: a lot about America to fifty you know, how to
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: make documentary films, sort of how he pulled off the
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: American Revolution in a polarizing era and didn't really have
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: people angry at him left or right, which is a
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: remarkable thing. So I know, no one, my listeners, you're
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: gonna love the ken Burns conversation. I've done Ken a
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: long time, and it is always a treat to spend
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: time with him, whether it's ten minutes or an hour,
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: and to have an hour with him, I count myself lucky.
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  Speaker 1: I hope you enjoy that conversation. But we got sort
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: of everything you need to know about politics at this moment.
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  Speaker 1: We got my ken Burns interview we will have this
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  Speaker 1: week in history. Here's a clue. I'm actually there's two
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  Speaker 1: remarkable anniversaries this week, March tenth and March twelfth. They
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  Speaker 1: both have to do with mass with communications, not necessarily
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: mass communications, but with communications. That's the hint I will
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  Speaker 1: give you now. But we will go into the time
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  Speaker 1: machine after we do the ken Burns interview. Then we'll
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  Speaker 1: do some questions, and let's just say I have a
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: few thoughts on President Trump's ridiculous attempt to try to
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: fix college sports, of which I don't think he really
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: had any interest in fixing college sports. But I digress.
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  Speaker 1: I'm not kicking off with that as tempting as you
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: might think it might be for me. But instead we're
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: going to start where it's just one of those moments.
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  Speaker 1: And I've talked to you about it before. You don't
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: know when presidencies end. You don't know when they're essentially
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: over as far as the public's concerned until after the fact.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: I'm not guaranteeing we're in one of those moments at
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: this moment, but boy, does this start to look like
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: one of those moments when you compare it to other
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: times in history. So I think the best way to
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: describe the moment President Trump is currently in is that
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: he's got himself in what I would call presidential Quicksand
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: one of the defining features of second term presidencies in
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: particular is that once events begin moving against you, it
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: becomes much harder to reverse the momentum. Right, you know,
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: I love that Haley barberism, who I know he stole
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: from somebody else, so don't bother with the sending me
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: notes about that. But you know, good gets better, bad
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: gets worse. Well, when you look at the last three
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: weeks of the Republican Party, bad and Donald Trump's efforts
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: on it, bad is certainly slipping into worse all over
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: the spectrum. And that's why I think the moment I
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: would describe him in is quick saying, because every decision
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: that is meant to stabilize things can actually deepen the problem. Right,
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: you thrash, you get stuck even more. I guess you
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: could also say it's a Chinese finger trap, right, but
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: every show of strength actually ends up revealing weakness, particularly
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: with this president, and it's the nature of quicksand the
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: hearder you thrash, the deeper you sink. And right now,
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: that's what the presidency looks like. You see it in Iran,
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: you see it in the economy, you see it in
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: this tariff mess, you see it actually in corporate America
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: starting to push back. I think an underreported story from
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: last week, I understand why it is on are reported.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: We're we're we're just we just created an open ended
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: war in Iran that I don't know how we get
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  Speaker 1: out of and increasingly you actually see it show itself
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  Speaker 1: on the political map. So let's start with Iran. This
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: is the clearest example of the quick stand effect. The
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: war is now more than a week old. More than
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: a thousand people are dead in Iran. Videos of massive
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  Speaker 1: fires in Tehran after strikes on oil storage facilities dominated
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: social media over the weekend. Across the region. The conflict
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: is already expanding beyond simple military targets. There are now
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: attacks on infrastructure, including desalination plants across the Gulf. This is,
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: you know, the more infrastructure we destroy in Iran that
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: has nothing to do with their with their military, that's
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: that's how you lose hearts and minds. So I certainly
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: think our targeting needs needs to improve. And if they
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: think that, hey, let's punish more of the Iranian people
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: because you don't think they're rising up enough to overthrow
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: the regime, I don't think you quite understand what you've done.
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  Speaker 1: So the opening phase of this war has already cost,
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: according to what the Pentagon has told Congress in this
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: first week, six billion dollars. So essentially it's six billion dollars.
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: Is that what we're looking at six billion dollars a week. Okay,
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: so he says four or five weeks, thirty billion dollars, right,
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: we already know they're thinking about a fifty billion dollars supplement.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: Do we really think this is going to end in
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  Speaker 1: four or five weeks? But here we are six billion
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  Speaker 1: dollars one week. Conflict of course, shows no shine, no
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: sign of show showing down. Now there are reports of the
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: United States and Israel are discussing the possibility of sending
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: special forces into Iran to seize the uranium stockpiles. This
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  Speaker 1: is Mission Creek right, much deeper involvement, actual boots on
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: the ground. Sure, you may say it's just special forces.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: I have to tell you, I can't tell you how
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: many times presidents think US special forces, our special forces
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: are outstanding, whether they're the Navy Seals, the Army rangers.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: But his boots on the ground. Let's not pretend it
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: is anything otherwise. And for those guys, we put more
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: on their shoulders than we probably should any set of
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: human beings. But I digress. Meanwhile, the President is describing
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: the war as a short excursion, while also leaving the
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: door open to putting American troops on the ground if
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: there were, in his words, a very good reason. So
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: the fact that he's listening to this and one thing
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  Speaker 1: about military commanders, they don't like. They're not going to
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: want to lose a war. They're not going to want
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: to walk away. And trust me, Trump's going to this
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: is what's coming. Trump's going to want to walk away
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: sooner than is possible, and it is going to cause
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: even more chaos when he gets to that moment. That said,
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: there are two ideas that don't coexist very easily, right,
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: which is this idea that we might put troops on
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: the ground or we might just get it and out.
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  Speaker 1: When presidents get into conflicts like this without a clear
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: strategic endgame, and trust me, there is none, the logic
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: of escalation begins to take over. First it's air strikes,
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: then it's deeper strikes. Right, we went from military infrastructure.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: Now we're going to basic country infrastructure. Then it's the
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: special forces. Right, we're just talking about it now, but
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: we feel the need we have to secure their radio.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: Then someone inevitably asks whether boots on the ground are
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: necessary to finish the job keep the peace. In order
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: to try to help this country stand itself up. I
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: unfortunately left out the likelihood of a civil war because
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: that's growing with every day that there is not a
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: full fledged regime change. History is a very clear record
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: on this question. If you want regime change from the
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: air alone, then you need to have a coherent opposition
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: ready to step in. And while there is plenty of
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: discontent all around, Iran do not have a unified opposition
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: ready to run this country tomorrow, despite the fantasies in
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: President Trump's head, and whatever networks did exist were severely
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: weakened by the regimes cracked down on protesters over the
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: past two months. So the potential leaders are either being
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: killed or they're very far underground. So the fantasy scenario
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: that you remove the leadership with in a new political
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: order magically appears. This is simply not grounded in reality.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: And there's another irony here. Trump of all people, should
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: understand the ideological loyalty that exists in Iran. His own
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: political basis stuck with him through every controversy imaginable. In fact,
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: the most remarkable thing about all the polling we've seen
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: in the last week is how those that describe themselves
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: as maga are more supportive of these strikes than those
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: who say they're not a part of the Mega movement. Right,
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: the MAGA influencers don't like this war and don't let write.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: But for now, you know Trump's The devotion to Trump
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: among MAGA is real. Right, They're more devoted to Trump
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: on this issue than the Mega influences are, which is
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: an interesting Now. That doesn't mean this won't chip away
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: over time, But right now, the president has blind loyalty
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: among his base, and so it shouldn't surprise him that
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: the Iranian regime, a theocracy that's been in place for
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: nearly fifty years, has blind loyalty. But the fact that
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: he seems surprised that the Iranian regime has these supporters
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: willing to defend itself despite hardship or chaos. The fact
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: that he's surprised by this shows you how how he
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: doesn't quite understand how the world works. It's a fundamental
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: misunderstanding of political movements, and it leads to some bad
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: strategic assumptions, because when you misread the internal dynamics of
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: another country, for some rarely produces the outcome you imagine,
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: which brings us back to the bigger problem. Once you
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: are in the quicksand of a conflict like this, it's
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: very difficult to exit cleanly. At some point, the president
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: is likely going to just say, hey, we did it.
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: It's time to move on, right when he knows that
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: this thing is just killing him domestically, politically, right, I
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: sort of joke remembered, remember when Pam Bondy lost her
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: shit talking about Dow. Why are you asking about Dow
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: fifty thousand? Well, how about Dow forty nine thousand, how
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: about Dow forty eight thousand, how about Dow forty seven thousand.
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: It's almost as if Pam Bondy said it out loud, right,
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: don't say it out loud, she says it out loud.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: And it's been nothing but a sell off, nothing but
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: a sell off. And mark my words, this is selling Trump.
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: This is selling Trump. This market collapses, Trump realizing he
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: has no idea what he's doing in this war, no
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: idea what he's doing on the economy. They're starting to
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: sell him. This really is his economy and his stock market.
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: And we know how much this is impacting his head,
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: and it will so he's you know, he's going to
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: try He's been trying all sorts of things. We're winning,
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: it's going great, it's over. They've apologized all these crazy
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: truth social posts that like have nothing in common with
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: reality on the ground, And so his impatience is coming.
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: We know this. I mean, I actually am pretty confident
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: he isn't going to put boots on the ground because
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: he's so scared politically. But the ineptness of what he's
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: doing here is actually going to create more chaos and
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: more instability, and we're actually going to get to the
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: point where we might we might almost have no choice
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: but to put boots on the ground. Now, let's talk
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: about the economic quicksan, and the danger for Trump is
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: that Iran is not the only front where the ground
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: is getting unstable beneath his feet. Look at this economy.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: This latest jobs report has raised more questions than it answered.
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: One month doesn't make a trend, we all know that.
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: But the broader signals that's in this report is increasingly concerning.
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: So you've got a bunch of slower growth indicators. You've
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: got rising energy anxiety because of the war. You've got
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: uncertainty around tariffs and trade policy. Federal Reserve is staring
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: at the worst possible combination slow in growth and rising prices.
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: It's what was deemed stagflation. Right, it's like the worst
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: of all worlds. Look in this. It's one month's job report,
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: but just like the last. It's interesting that last job
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: report we got was shockingly good. This job's report for
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: some people with shockingly back. The question is which one
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: fits the world you're actually living in. That good job's
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: report was more of a shocker because it didn't seem
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: to fit what was happening in real life. This job's
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: report sadly fits what appears to be happening in real life. Right.
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: The fact that productivity went up, can you say, AI,
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: anybody but we but are but the but the job
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: jobs actually shrink again one month does not make a
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: trend extraordinarily concerning. And we haven't even and this hasn't
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: even factored in rising gas prices and rising energy costs,
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: which are a whole other level of economic uncertainty. So now, politically,
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: this is incredibly dangerous territory for Trump because voters did
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: not elect him to manage a complicated geopolitical crisis. They
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: did not want this. In fact, it was one of
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: the features of Trump's candidacy is that he was loudly
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: proclaiming he wasn't going to do things like this. Ronald
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: Trump got elected for one reason by this small slice
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: of voters who decided to go from Biden to Trump.
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: They believed he would bring down the cost of prices,
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: that he was going to manage the economy better than
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: Biden or Kamala Harris. That was the job description, period
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: and distory. But the policies we've seen so far have
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: done the exact opposite. Tariffs raising prices, trade disruption raising prices,
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: geopolitical instability raising prices, all moving this economy in the
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: opposite direction. Prices are under pressure, the markets are jittery,
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: businesses are uncertain about the rules. And that matters because
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: the voters who put Trump back into the White House,
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: not his loyal base who will literally do whatever he says,
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: but the ones, the actual swing voters. They were not
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: the diehard loyalists. These voters will stick with him. The
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: loyalists will stick with them through everything we're seeing. This.
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: The fact that the so called self described magabase as
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: sticking with him with this foreign war excursion that he's
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: doing tells you everything you need to know about the
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: loyalty of the magabase, and you see it in the polls.
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: There's great new NBC News, you know, the premium NBC
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: News poll is out, Hart mcinturf, Bill McInturff, Jeff Horwick,
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: and it shows that in some ways his base hasn't
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: really gone anywhere, but everybody else has moved hard against him,
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: including that slice of swing voters that took him from
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: losing in twenty twenty to winning in twenty twenty four.
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: And the voters who matter politically the most at the
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: moment are the conditional supporters, the people who said, I
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: may not love the chaos that he brings, but he
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: understands the economy and at the end of the day,
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: that's really all I care about. And if that bargain breaks,
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: the coalition breaks, and we're already seeing, right, the last
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: ones in have been the first ones out in first
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: out is a rule at corporate America sometimes when there's
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: job cuts, and it's also a rule in political coalitions.
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: The last ones to join your coalition are usually the
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: first ones at flee when the going gets tough. It's
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: another way that presidential quicksand works. The response from a
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: president like Trump is usually more aggression, more promises, more
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: dramatic actions, but usually those actions simply deepen the instability.
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: Then there's the tariff mess. This is quicksand in legal form,
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: Supreme Court is struck down right Trump's emergency terff regime.
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: The administration is continues to find ways. You know, they're
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: looking for ways to discourage companies from collecting stolen money.
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: Now right, it's now money that does not belong to
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: the government. It belongs to these businesses that paid them.
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: And then, of course they may belong to the consumers
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: that those businesses raise prices on. We're talking billions of
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: dollars that businesses were forced to pay under a policy
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: the court has deemed unconstitutional illegal. So even after losing
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: in court, the administration appears to be looking for ways
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: to hold onto this money, such a Donald Trump move, right,
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: the guy who never pays his contractors. It's not just
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: politically risky. It reinforces a deeper pattern here, right, just
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: governing by improvisation instead of building policy through Congress. The
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: administration imposted sweeping terriffs through more emergency authority. More emergency
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: authority that's likely unconstitutional, unclear at this time, I think
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: businesses are going to be more likely to sue the
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: bigger businesses. It is ironic that none of the big
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: businesses who were hit harder by tariffs than the small
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: businesses had the guts to sue this administration. I'm looking
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: at you, Amazon in Walmart. But it was the small
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: business it said, had the guts to stand up to
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: the tyranny of these tariffs, and they want. But instead
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: of accepting the ruling of the Judiciary branch, the White
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: House is still searching for another workaround, and all it's
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: turning into is more quicksand. A shortcut creates a mess,
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: The mess requires a workaround. The workaround creates another legal vulnerability,
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: and instead of projecting strength, the Presidency begins to look
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: reactive and trapped again quicksand and it may explain why
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: corporate America feels comfortable to start pushing back. This was
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: something that felt very unlikely even just six weeks ago.
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: But we're starting to see corporate America very quietly, very
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: slowly projects some independence. And it's not because CEOs suddenly
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: discover their inner activist. Because the cost of compliance became
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: too high. Anthropic recently refused the Pentagon demands to remove
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: safety guardrails from its AI systems for military use. They
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: pushed back. Netflix walked away rather than to abide by
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: the forced firings from their board, essentially allowing the president
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: to manage their private company. The irony is that both
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: Aranthropic and Netflix walking away from the government instead of
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: being coerced by the government was actually good business. If
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: you go look at Claude usage rates over the last week,
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: their way up CHATCHIPD usage weights are either flattered down
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: and now since small business is one, now the major
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: retailers are speaking of Costco, FedEx, Hasbro. Now they're suing
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: the administration for their terar free funds. They didn't have
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: the guts to jump on and sue from the beginning,
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: but now that they are owed money, now they want
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: their money. These aren't ideological revolts, their strategy calculations. It's
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: the whiff of weakness that's what these corporations now smell.
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: Businesses push back when the risks of going along outweigh
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: the risks of resisting, and suddenly the calculation is shifting. Historically,
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: corporations do not challenge presidents they believe are firmly in
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: control or can really give them, create problems for them
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: first year of Trump's presidency. In this second second presidency,
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: it's pretty much how corporations treated them. Corporations will push
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: back when they sense drift, instability, or overreach. It's another
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: signal that the aura of inevitability around Trump's political power
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: is weakening by the hour. This episode of the Chuck
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: Toddcast is brought to you by American Financing. So if
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  Speaker 1: the political matter that also radically has changed over the
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: last few weeks, because the quick sand effect isn't just
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: showing up in these policy finds, it's showing up in
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: the coalition itself. Look, the coalition is not going to
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: collapse overnight. For Tis, his base is not going to
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: go anywhere. He's got a high floor, and those running
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: against mega Republicans got to understand that it's a high
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: floor right now. Still, the coalitions, while they don't collapse overnight,
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: they begin to fray. And this one's fraying. And you
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: know when it's fraying because the politicians in tougher terrain
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: begin hedging. First, I think it's a very big deal
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: that a Republican member of Congress in California thought, you
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: know what, the best path the reelection is for me,
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: drop the r That's what California Congressman Kevin Kylie has
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: decided to do. He really recently announced that he's leaving
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: the Republican Party and he's going to run for reelection,
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: but he's going to do so as an independent officially
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: no party preference. Now, obviously there's a practical reason for
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: that decision. California's redistricting blew up his old district, left
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: him choosing between a safe Republican seat already held by
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: another Republican so the possibility of a member member primary.
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: Chose not to do that, or a competitive seat that
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: leans democratic. It's not dark blue, but it's light blue.
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: This new seat for Kylie, and he chose the harder seat,
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: and he chose to run without the Republican labe. So
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: why do you do that? Well, because in the district
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: he now needs to win, the label is a liability.
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: Kylie has already been distancing himself with Trump on tariffs
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: and criticizing the hyperpartisan culture in Washington, and yes, he
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: did so out of self interest. He was one of
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: the only Republicans to criticize Trump and Texas for what
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: they were doing with redistricting, knowing that it was going
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: to impact him directly and impact his political career. So
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: certainly it's self interest. But he also you know, this
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: is a guy, by the way, that voted against Trump
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: on tariffs. So if he wants to be who he
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: really wants to be, he's got a declare political independence
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: because you're not allowed to stray too far from the
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: party line on the right, and increasingly there's a belief
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: you can't straight too far from the party line on
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: the left. Democrats used to be a bit more open.
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: It's funny how this works. Used to be the first
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: you know, when whatever parties out of power usually is
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: a bit more open to letting people use their party
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: label and define it in any way they want. But
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: then the more success you have, the more purity you want.
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: In these polarized times, right, we're seeing an increasingly an
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: increasing number of progressives who want to essentially emulate Trump.
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: If Trump can run rough shot over constitutional norms to
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: get his agenda in, then why can't a progressive president
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: do the same thing. Still, this Kylie decision is a
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: big deal. Democrats will argue that he's just rebranding just
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: to try to win a seat, that it's cosmetic. They'll
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: point out that he voted with Trump most of the time,
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: but it actually reinforces the larger point. He would not
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: be shedding the party label if he thought the label
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: still helped him win. That's how That's how you're seeing
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: a coalition fray in real time. Yes, it's it's California,
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: I understand that, But this is a guy who's been
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: a Republican a long time, and not like some liberal
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: Republican either. Just to frankly, what pre Trump would have
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: been considered a conventional conservative Republican. Then let's look at Montana.
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: Steve Dames retirement. Someone didn't want to spend another six
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: years defending these policies. He's stunned to the state by
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: withdrawing his reelection bid just minutes before the filing deadline.
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: And then he did some shenanigans, right. He cleared the
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: way for an anointed person, no real competitive primary, and
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: I think it's possible Republicans pay a price for this.
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: So the US Attorney Curt Holmy is jumping in the race.
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: He's immediately got the endorsement of Danes and Trump. So
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: it's this sort of quick handover without Republican primary voters
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: in Montana getting a say, uh, it's you know, this
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: is what feeds deep cynicism about party politics these days.
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: But the maneuvers open the door for a serious independent
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: bid from Seth Bodner. Ironically, the day that Danes pulled
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: his withdrawal trick is the day Bodner announced his independent candidacies.
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: The former president of University of Montana. He's a Rhodes scholar,
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: he's a former Green Beret. Couldn't have asked for a
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: better news development to reinforce the independent idea of an
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: independent candidacy. Bodner explicitly is running on the argument that
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: both parties have become too insulated from voters. And what
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: does Steve Danges do. Let me show you how insulated
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: we are over here. Watch us do this little backdoor
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: trick and not give voters a se I mean it was.
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: It literally could not have been better. It could not
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: have been scripted better by the Bodner campaign themselves. Now, look,
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: Montana is still a Republican leaning state, but the very
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: existence of a strong independent lane is telling because this
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: anti establishment energy I think is real in this cycle,
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: and it's not neatly contained within one party, right, It
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: is the Democrats that that, you know, Bodner. John Tester
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: has already endorsed the Independent over any of the Democrats
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: running because he believes the Democratic brand is just not
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: an electable brand in the state of Montana, just like
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: Kevin Kylie does not believe the Republican brand is electable
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: in the state of California. You put those two things
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: together and you see a broader pattern. Here in California,
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: Republican decides he has to distance himself from the party.
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: Lade on Montana, it's a it's a perhaps a I'm
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: not sure if he's Democratic leaning or just not comfortable
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: with where the Republican Party was headed in Bodner, But
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: either way, it's an Oh, it's an opening for an
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: outsider campaign attacking the entire system. So the coalition that
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: once rallied around Trump is now loosening at the edges.
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: Remember Trump was the outsider at one point. Trump was
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: the essentially the independent, and he is not considered an outsider.
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: He is considered part of the problem, part of the establishment.
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: And that's that's what happens to second term presidencies. And
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: once they lose that aura of political usefulness, discipline becomes
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: harder to maintain. This is only going to accelerate. Good
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: gets better, bad gets worse. Members are going to start
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: asking now how to stay close to the president, but
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: how to protect themselves from the fallout that appears to
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: be inevitable. And one more thing that often happens when
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: presidencies enter this political quicksand that Donald Trump has found
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: himself in. They start chasing side battles, looking for anything
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: to improve, to either distract from the crankiness of the electorate,
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: to do something. You know, college sports, we try that.
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: By the way, good grief, the optics of that. The
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: Secretary of State. Look, Marco Rubio has the same amount
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: of interest and influence in college football as I have.
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: He is the father of a college athlete, so sure
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: I would be curious of what he thinks of the system.
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: But the fact that he spent two hours of his
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: day on Friday when there are strand I mean, I'm
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: curious what a stranded American in the Middle East thinks
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: of the head of the State Department, who did not
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: plan at all, apparently to evacuate Americans anywhere, did have
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: time to pontificate about college sports. But the point is,
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: and I'm gonna, like I said, I have a lot
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: more about the college sports. But boy, was that just
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: terrible optics. Timing couldn't have looked worse. And I mean,
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: this was an unseious event and I'm going to get
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: to it later of how un serious it was. But
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: these little side side shows that Trump is going to
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: continue to try to do for distraction, right, so it's
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: college sports. Maybe they're executive order fantasies. You know, he
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: may start pontificating again about emergency powers over elections like
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: this crazy truth. I'm not signing any bill until they
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: passed the Save Act, which includes you know, demands for
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: birth certificates before you can vote. I mean, really cuckoo stuff.
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: But what it really is, it's what is really showing
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: you is that he's losing control, and he knows it,
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: and he's desperate to try to project some sort of
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: strength or some sort of control. He's obviously trying to
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: do this because he knows when core problems are getting
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: harder to solve, the temptation is to dominate the headlines
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: with just anything else. And Donald Trump he thinks spectacle
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: is a strategy. But trust me, spectacle is no strategy.
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: So this is what presidential quicksay looks like. A war
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: expanding while the President calls it limited, an economy sending
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: warning signals while the White House insists everything is fine,
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: remain calm all as well, a terriff regime that collapsed
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: in court. Corporate America now feeling comfortable resisting without fear
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: of punishment. Politicians and the president's own coalition quietly repositioning
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: either just leaving they're done, they can't do it, or
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: they leave the party and run as an independent. None
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: of this means the whole thing collapses tomorrow, quick saying
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: is slower than that. It's cumulative, but the pattern is
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: very recognizable. This is starting to look a lot like
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: two thousand and six. There's a few things that are
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: different I'll get to in a minute, but it's unchecked.
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: Trump more insulated than he was in his first term,
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: more convinced of his instincts, less constrained by advisors. He's
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: not mastering events. Events have overtaken him. He just hasn't
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: accepted that reality yet because he's just reacting again. And
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: when a president starts reacting more than governing, that's usually
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: when the ground beneath beneath them will give way completely.
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: And let me put a let me button it up
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: with this. When you look at the Biden presidency in
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: the one term, and I'd spent a lot of time
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: during that time, and even saying in how Afghanistan was
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: was sort of a moment that he seemed to lose
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: the presidency, and he never got the plot back right,
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: because if you look at the Joe Biden approval rating,
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: right once it hit, once Afghanistan happened, and there was
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: a reason why the voters never he never recovered from
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: that moment. And I'm gonna and and I'll explain where
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: why this is this is relevant to Trump in a second.
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: He didn't, you know, the vote average voter knew Biden
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: was very you know onee policy was his best subject.
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: This was a core competency that the public thought he had.
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: You know, there was less there was less uh confidence
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: in his ability to uh deal with the economy, less
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: confidence and his ability to sort of galvanize the public
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: around a big idea. But on foreign affairs there was
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: a core competency and a core expertise perceived expertise with him.
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: So when that was a total calamity and all the
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: chaos that went with the Afghanistan withdrawal, his approval rating
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: drop a low forty five, never recovered again. With Donald Trump,
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: the core competency that voters attributed it to him is
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: managing the economy. I know some of you think he
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: never had, you know, you don't know, but the majority
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: of voters remember it's a choice. And they they looked
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: at Kamala and they looked at Trump and they decided, well,
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: Trump's first term that the economy the first three years
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: was pretty good. Yes, he likely the only reason was
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: any good as he inherited a healing economy from Obama,
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: juiced it with tax cuts, and by the time it
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: was going to probably start slowing down in twenty twenty,
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: COVID happened, and then COVID masked whatever weaknesses that might
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: have been opening up in his management of the economy. Then, rightfully,
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: I think the public said, well, that's nobody's fault. Right,
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: COVID was going to create an economic challenge no matter
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: who was president, But those swing voters came in and
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: assumed he had a core competency. So there were sort
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: of two basic promises with Donald Trump that you thought
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: were You knew you were going to get a lot
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: of bullshit, right, that's just who he is. And there
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: was sort of for the second presidential term, there were
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: these groups of voters that were willing to accept it
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: if two things, If he kept two promises, improve the
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: economy and don't get us into any new wars. This
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: is why this is why this is only going to
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: get worse if this turns around. There's something that happens
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: and none of us can foresee at the moment, but
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: this is setting up to be a catastrophic political problem
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: for the Republicans right now, you see it. It's a
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: crack here, it's a crack there. But sometimes right it's
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: like you see it, a couple of cracks, a couple
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: of cracks in it, everything shatters. So whether you want
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: to use my quicksand metaphor or my shattering glass metaphor,
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: either one applies to where this presidency is headed. All right,
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: let's sneak in a break. And I didn't even get
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: to the Christine Nome craziness. In some ways, that's all
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: part of it. We do it is there was always
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: a point in you know, sheet in Trump's Washington, when
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: you have everybody mad at you. Right this happened. I
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: was a part of one of these when nobody came
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: to run Aroundney's defense. When I was critical of what
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: NBC was doing, No Republican came to her defense, right,
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: Christine nom you know, there's this point when you when
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: you've lost everybody, you kind of know it. And Christy
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: Nome lost everybody left, right, center, maga, non, maga, you
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: name it, so it became easy to do. We'll see
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: how Mark white Mullin does. You know he's an interesting cat.
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: I know he's very much He follows his electorate when
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: it comes to Trump. But he's also somebody that, if
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: you talk to many senators want He's somebody that likes
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: to be He likes to be in the middle of negotiations.
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: He wants to be a compromiser. He doesn't want to
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: be seen as an obstacle to get shipped done. Is
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: he going to showcase that part of him? And we're
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: going to find out real quick. We'll see what how
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: good his relationships are because of his relationships in the
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: Senate are as good as some people claim they are,
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: And it's confirmation should coincide with the reopening of the
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: entire DHS. But to me, this is the real test.
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: If to me, I wouldn't confirm him if he can't
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: get the deal. I think that's fair trade. Now, maybe
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: Trump doesn't want to let them let him get the deal,
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: but to me that should be you don't get your
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: confirmation vote until you cut the deal, until you find
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: a deal. To reopen DHS anyway, All right, let's stick
• 43:28
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  Speaker 1: I think I would, I'd feel pretty good about myself
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: on that one. I'm looking forward to America two fifty.
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: I know that there's you know, it's a fraught time politically.
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: Guess what the bi centennial in nineteen seventy six, which
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to pretend I had any memory of,
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: I was for also was happening at a time all
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: right questioning. You know, we a lot of weakness in
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: the American presidency, a lot of concern, there, a lot
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: of a lot of you know, is America. Our economy
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: was weak, and you know, it was a moment of weakness,
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: and yet and yet there was a there was still
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: unity because the hope for a more perfect union was
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: still out there. And I think we should still take
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: a look at America two fifty as I hope for
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: a more perfect union and what I really hope people
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: use America to fifty to do is to start thinking
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: about ways we can update the democracy. It needs updating.
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: We've talked about it. I'm not going to run my
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: list now we've got I've done it before, I will
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: do it again. But I'm looking forward to it. I
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: got to. I went to New York for the one
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: hundredth anniversary of New York of New York of the
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: Statue of Liberty. Easily it's it is the second greatest
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: fireworks display I've ever seen, because the greatest fireworks display
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: that I ever see happens every single year in the
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: nation's capital. And I promise you, once you see that
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: fireworks display, you will never want to see another Fourth
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: of July fireworks display because every single one pales in comparison.
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: The only one that came close was that New York
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: was when they were all those fireworks display for the
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: Statue of Liberty when it turned one hundred, and you
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: had I think twelve different ships launching identical fireworks displays,
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: and it was pretty cool. So i've and I still
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: have a hole. My father was a coin collector because
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: you know a lot of there were a lot of
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: the and he I have all these bisentennial mint coins
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: from the mint, you know, first off the line, those
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: little things. My father was obsessed with collecting bi centennial quarters.
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: I think I still have a pile of bisentennial quarters.
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: That's something. Man. If you find a bi centennial quarter
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: in in uh, in real life, uh, these days, you've
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: really found something. It's like finding that or an old
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: weedy penny where it was not the Lincoln memorial on
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: the back, but but but two grains, uh, two pieces
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: of two grains of wheat. I wonder what is less
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: common to find? I mean these days with change? Right,
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: who who's paying in cash? Let alone getting getting much change?
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: All right, speaking of the past, let's jump into the
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: toodcast time machine. So this was an interesting week in
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: his coming up because there's two anniversaries that I decided
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: to merge into one and to talk about how communication
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: technology changed leadership, not just in America, but leadership in general.
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: So there are certain inventions that quietly rearrange power. The
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: printing press, the telegraph, the internet. Sometimes the shift doesn't
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: happen when the technology is invented. It happens when someone
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: figures out how to use it. So take this week
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: in history. Imagine it's Sunday night, March twelfth, nineteen thirty three,
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: across the United States, families are gathering in their living
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: rooms around wooden radio cabinets. Banks have been closed for
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: a week. At this point, the financial system has essentially frozen.
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: People aren't sure whether the money in their bank accounts
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: is even still there. And then the President of the
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: United States begins speaking, not delivering a speech, talking my friends,
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: I want to talk for a few minutes with the
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: people of the United States about banking. FRANKN. Roosevelt's voice
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: is calm that night, even conversational in tone. For tens
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: of millions of Americans listening that night, it felt like
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: the President had stepped into their living room. Now rewind
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: two days on the calendar and fifty seven years earlier
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: in history, to March tenth, eighteen seventy six. A scientist
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: named Alexander Graham Bell leans over an experimental device and
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: he says, as he later recorded in his lab of notebook,
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: mister Watson, come here, I want to see you. The
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: very first successful telephone call. So Bell created instant voice
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: communication between two people. Roosevelt would use the Excommunication revolution
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: radio to speak to an entire nation at once, and
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: once that became possible, the presidency itself would be changed forever.
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: Because communication technology doesn't just change how we talked, it
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: changes how leaders lead. Now, the story actually begins before Bell.
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: During the Civil War, Abraham Lincoln spent hours in the
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: War Department's telegraph office in Washington. Telegraph wires connected the
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: president directly to generals in the field in real time.
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: The commander in chief could actually send his commands in
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: real time. Right for the first time in history, the
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: actual commander in chief could influence battlefield decisions. Before the telegraph,
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: military orders might take days or even weeks to reach
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: the commanders in the field. With the telegraph, Lincoln could
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: read updates within minutes, and then it respond almost as quickly.
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: It didn't just accelerate communication. It expanded presidential reach, but
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: telegraph communication still required intermediaries, right, You needed operators sending
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: coded signals. The telephone removed all of those barriers. Probably
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: put some people out of work. It's a reminder new
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: technologies always put people out of work, but they always
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: create jobs we never thought of. Bell's telephone allowed people
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: to speak directly across distance voice instead of code conversation.
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: Instead of telegrams. The immediate effects were economic and diplomatic.
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: Businesses coordinated across cities instantly. Financial markets responded faster. Political
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: leaders could negotiate in real time, but the telephone still
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: operated one conversation at a time. It connected in an
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: individual to another individual. It did not yet connect leaders
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: to entire populations. That required broadcast technology. Enter radio radio
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: multiplied the voice. One speaker could suddenly reach millions. Now,
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: Roosevelt wasn't the first president to appear on radio. Warren G.
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: Harding broadcast was the first president to broadcast on radio
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: nineteen twenty two. Calvin Coolidge actually used radio fairly regularly.
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: Herbert Hoover did as well. But it's like dealing with television.
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: Kennedy wasn't first, He just was the first one to
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: get it. Roosevelt understood something his predecessors did not fully
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: grasp when it came to radio. Radio wasn't simply awaited
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: to just deliver speeches. It's actually a way to build trust.
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: The first fireside chat, right he just takes office, we're talking,
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: you know. He got inaugurated first week of March. That
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: was the last one. We ended up moving it to
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: January after that, but we were still inaugure in our
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: presidents in March. So literally this is part of his
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: first one hundred days honeymoon period first week right, and
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: when he took office, the US was facing an economic catastrophe.
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: Banks were failing. Confidence in the financial system that evaporated.
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: Roosevelt declared a national bank holiday, but restoring confidence required
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: more than legislation. It required explanation. So that's why on
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: March twelfth, just days after he took the oath of office,
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: Roosevelt spoke directly to the country on radio. Roughly sixty
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: million Americans, nearly half the nation, tuned in, and he
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: simply explained how banks worked. He explained why they were
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: closing temporarily. Right. His speech was part information, part education,
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: and he reassured listeners was plain language. Remember this is
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: you got to meet people where they're at. You can't
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: expect them to speak your elitism. At one point, he said,
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: I can assure you that it is safer to keep
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: your money in a reopened bank than under the mattress.
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: The tone was not presidential in the traditional sense at
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: the time. It was something they'd never heard from a president.
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: It was like hearing from their father or grandfather. It
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: was conversational. Presidents sounded less like some distant authority figure
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: and more like the well informed, nice gentleman next door,
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: and that intimacy changed expectations. The presidency had already been
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: evolving towards a more personal role. Andrew Jackson built direct
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: political loyalty through newspapers. Teddy Roosevelt dominated press coverage and
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: described the presidency as a bully pulpit, a phrase we
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: still use today. Woodrow Wilson pioneered presidential press conferences and
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: personal appeals to the public, but he always needed he
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: was always having to. Both he and Roosevelt, while they
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: understood trying to talk over the press, still needed the
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: press to let the public know what they were saying.
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: Radio changed all of that. Radio changed the scale. For
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: the first time, a president could speak directly to the
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: entire nation simultaneously without any filter, without newspapers filtering it,
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: without intermediaries trying to interpret the words, and that scale
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: transformed the office itself, for good and for bad. After Roosevelt,
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: Americans expected their presidents not just to govern, but to
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: communicate constantly. Ever since then, Right the tallest guy wins
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: the one who looks best on TV wins. Suddenly, the
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: ability to communicate and what we believe gives people the
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: ability to communicate mattered more than anything else when it
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: came to electing our presidents. Now here's a truism. Every
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: technology resets leadership, and once that relationship existed, each new
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: communication technology reshaped leadership again. Television created visual the visual presidency.
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: I think John F. Kennedy in the first televised debates.
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: Cable news created the permanent media cycle. The fact that
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: this is we don't just check in on a president
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: once a week anymore. Later, presidents had to navigate the
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: environment constantly. Digital technology reshaped campaign George W. Bush used
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: digital tools for sophisticated voter targeting. Barack Obama used the
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: Internet to build organizing networks, then game social media. Donald
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: Trump became the first president to use social media as
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: a primary channel for communicating directly with the public. Each
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: technological shift removed more intermediaries. Each shift strengthened direct connection
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: between leader and audience. And this didn't just change politics.
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: This same transformation has happened in the corporate boardrooms. Took
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: a little longer. For much of the twentieth century, CEOs
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: were largely invisible figures. They manage companies, they spoke mainly
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: to boards and investors. Public communication was seen as secondary.
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: Today that expectation is completely flipped. If you don't have
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: a CEO that can go on CNBC and be charming interesting,
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: you're going to be considered a bad CEO no matter
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: how well you manage people. And now the modern CEO
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: is expected to appear everywhere, communicate constantly, earnings calls, interviews,
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: investor conferences, social media. Leadership itself has become partly a
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: communications profession. The communication revolution didn't just reshape the presidency.
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: It has reshaped how we even define what leadership. It means.
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: If you can't communicate, you're no longer considered a great leader.
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: And most of our great leaders could communicate, but not
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: all great communicators can lead. And that's where you've got
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: to be careful, just assuming every great communicator is also
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: a great leader. So what's consequence of all this? Once
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: communication becomes centralized in a single leader, power follows Congress
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: debates collectively. This is why Congress has become I think
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: the acceleration of the weakness of Congress has almost is
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: you know, it is coincided with the increase of personalized
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: communications between the presidency and the public. Right the Congress,
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: the House was supposed to be the people's house, and
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: yet the president is the one that seems more connected
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: to the public, even though the public doesn't elect them.
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: The public actually elects intermediaries that elect them and call
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: them electors. But this is the power of communications. Congers
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: speaks collectively, a president speaks alone. Congress moves slowly. A
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: president communicates instantly. Technology didn't change the constitution, but it
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: did change the political gravity of our system. And we
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: haven't fully figured out. Congress hasn't fully figured out how
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: to reassert itself in this era of a new communications age.
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: And we've now arguably had four iterations of this era
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: of the communications ape. So what's the lesson. Well, between
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: March tenth, eighteen seventy six and March twelfth, nineteen thirty three,
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: communication evolved from private conversation to national conversation. Bell made
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: voice communication immediate, Roosevelt made mass political communication necessary. Every
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: communication revolution since has pushed that relationship further. And if
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: you look at our politics today, where presidential social media
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: posts can move markets or announce policy. Before agencies or
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: even briefed. You can see that the transformation Roosevelt began
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: is still accelerating. I mean, I don't I fear the
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: idea of direct democracy, immediacy President going out, I'm gonna
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: pull everybody. You tell me what decision you want me
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: to make, and within five minutes the public response, does
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: that politician then do what they say? The fact is
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: we're getting awfully close to doing those kind of performative tricks.
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: Bell made communication immediate, Roosevelt made it political, and we're
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: still living inside that transformation. So there you go. I
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: took two fascinating historic anniversaries this week March tenth and
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: March twelfth, the Bell phone call and the first fireside chat,
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: and we decided to make two stops in the podcast
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: time mission. Let's get to some letters as Chuck ass
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: Chuck ask Chuck, what have we got here today? Let's
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: take a look. Let's get started here. First question comes
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: from Tom Hurr. No, not that Tom Hurr. If you're
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: a Cardinals fan and wondering if you're at we're talking
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: about the form of your former second basement, we are not.
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: Here's Tom's question, how many similarities can you find between
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: the Admiral Yamamoto lead attack on Pearl Harbor and the
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: Trump led attack on Iran surprise attack while diplomatic negotiations
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: were ongoing, no declaration of war, the deaths of thousands,
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: including many civilians, and initial tactical success that led to
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: a strategic disaster to be determined. When did a despictable
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: act of treachery on a date that lives in infamy
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: become a model for US military strategy? Would he like
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: to be remembered as Donald Trump? Obono Trump motto? That's
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: a tough I see what you're doing there. This is
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: tough for a guy like me to spend to spit out.
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: Thanks for the great podcast. Uh wow, that's uh, that's
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: quite the comparison. I I think I don't know if
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with Pearl Harbor as the as the comparison,
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: but it is if you when you look at it's
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: I guess it's you know, when you try to compare
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: how he's started a war with Iran to how either
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: of the Bush presidency started wars with the rock and
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: you're right, Pearl Harbor is actually a better, a better
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: comparison than and then either of the previous Iraq wars.
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: Because the previous Iraq wars, the Bush presidencies did weird
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: things like a galvanized the American public, make their case
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: to the public, make the case to the u N
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: make the case to Congress, allow Congress to vote, and
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: he did none of those things. So anyway, it's an
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: interesting comparison. You did a pretty good job of noting
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: it is iron America here, right, That's where I think
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: we all run out of That's where you run out
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: of it. But I understand the point you're making here,
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: and I think it frankly coincides with what I'm the
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: point I was making up top. It's easy to start
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: one of these things, it is hard to get out
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: of from under it. And I think he is stuck
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 1: in some presidential Quicksand next question comes from Chase Carmichael,
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: Little Rock, Arkansas. Chase writes, did anything actually substantive come
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: out of Trump's college sports roundtable last week? Been trying
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: to track down the highlights, but I think the coverage
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: got slightly buried under the World War Three headlines. Yes
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: it did. It's hard to focus on nil reforms and
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: eligibility brackets when the twenty four hour news cycle feels
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: like a trailer for a full up shelter. I don't
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: mean the laugh chase, but that's pretty funny. Look, I
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: was gonna wait until after questions to do this, but yeah,
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: I mean it was. It's a joke. Right. He didn't
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: have a single current athlete there, didn't have any current
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: And if you weren't going to put current athletes there,
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: how about current agents? He had former athletes there. I
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: think Charlie Ward was invited. Like I said, Marco Rubio
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: is the father of a college athlete. His son played
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: for the Florida Gators scored a touchdown in a bowl
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: game a couple of years ago. But you know, this
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: was a classic case where Donald Trump remind you all
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: the time he's an elitist. He surrounded himself with the
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: old guard powers of college football, not the reality. Like
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: you know, you should have Charles Abandon there, the guy
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: who launched the lawsuit that got that legalized payments for name,
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: image and likeness. So no right, and Trump wasn't there
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: to listen, and he came across almost half belligerent. Well,
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: I'm just gonna sign an order put everything back the
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: way it used to be and then I'll get sued
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: and you're just sort of shaking your head. You're not
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: gonna get sued because no one's gonna take the order
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: seriously at all. Look, it was a waste of time completely.
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: I understand why everybody that showed up did show up,
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: because you know there's you know, he will he could
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: lash out. I gotta think that there was one There
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: was one picture of Nick Saban's face at one point.
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: He looks really annoyed, and you know I I got
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 1: to see that face up close. I went to a
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: National Football Foundation Hall of Fame dinner one year. It
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: was the year Jimmy Johnson was inaugurated. In fact, uh, nope,
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: not in this. My My Florida Studio has a my
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: signed Jimmy Johnson helmet that I won in an auction
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: that night there signed my hurricane helmet. Of course. I
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: I don't know what I would do if somebody gave
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: me sign Jimmy Johnson Dallas Cowboy paraphernalia. I probably just
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: sell it. I would not keep it. As much as
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: I love Jimmy that any Hurricane stuff count me in.
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: And I'd probably keep some of the Dolphins stuff just
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: for the little Miami Miami history sake, but I am
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: going I'm rambling on here. But the point was at
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: this dinner, which also was honoring some players from that year,
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: and there was an Alabama player being honored, center Barrett
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: somebody or other, and I can't remember last name or
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: first name. Barrett was either his last name of the
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: first name, I believe, so you Bama fans will know
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: who I'm talking about. And the running gag of the
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: entire dinner was how miserable Nick Saban was at the dinner,
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: that there was nothing he hated more than just like
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: being somewhere that wasn't going to accomplish anything, you know.
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: And they had just won this as one of the
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: years they won the national title or they had just
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: qualified to be in the National title. This was a
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: December dinner, so they, you know, it was sort of
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: that dark period right after the season. They were getting
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 1: ready to play in the national title game. I think
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: this is pre fourteen playoff even we're probably at the
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: two team playoffs. And it was the joke the whole time,
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: you know, and you'd look at him and he really was.
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: He was just sort of hem and han and Anyway,
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: when I saw that face at the at the White
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: House roundtable that they held last week, I was like,
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: I've seen that Saban face. That's the I can't believe
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: I'm stuck at this stupid effing thing face. But I'm
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: sure you know you don't. You don't know. The President
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: has the power to convene. In theory, he could play
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: a great role here. But when you only talk to
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: one side of the fence, and everybody in that room
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: doesn't want to pay the players, they pay lip service
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: to it, but none of them want to be paying
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: the players, So you're just not dealing in the in
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: reality of the situation itself. So it was a complete
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: and utter waste of time. The only way this gets
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: solved is Congress. Congress. You know, I do think Cody
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: Campbell the big he's one of the big funders of
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: Texas text football program. But he's the guy that's been
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: underwriting this television campaign about lobbying Congress to change the
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: Broadcasting the Sports Broadcasting Act that essentially would allow all
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: the college football schools to negotiate their media rights collectively,
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: more like how the NFL does it, rather than conference
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: by conference. And is my old friend con Carol tweeted
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: this the other day and I was like, he just
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: put it so succinctly when when somebody was making the
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: argument about collective versus each conference negotiating its media rights,
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: he goes, imagine in the NFL, if each division we're
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: negotiating its own media rights, right, the NFC, so the
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants versus the AFC
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: South with the Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts. Right, Like, who's
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: media rights? Right? Who's going to get the bigger deal? Right?
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: That'd be stupid to be bad business. Well for college athletics.
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: It is bad business to do this by conference. And
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: the only entities that benefit from doing this are the
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: media companies who don't want to pay fair market value
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: for these sports media rights. And right now, the two
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: biggest media entities have the two biggest conferences as they're
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: essentially they're surrogates. They're bought off, right, you know, the
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: Big ten and the SEC get to be the tallest
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: little people because of this system them. They'd still be
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: probably on the merits B have a majority of the
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: power teams if they all pulled their TV rights together,
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: but the SEC and the Big Ten like creating this
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: velvet rope where fewer teams have an opportunity to be
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 1: involved in the elite level of college football. All I
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: would say is is if you believe in a fairly
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: free market, the current system of college football is not
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: a free market at all. And yes, I know the
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: NFL is not a free market as far as how
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 1: that structure is concerned, But how the NFL takes its
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: media rights to market is maximizing its value and its leverage,
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: and college sports does not do that at the moment.
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: So no chase. And like I said, the timing of
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: it right, it was already awkward, It was already unlikely
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: to be anything up than a than an attempt by
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 1: Trump to insert himself. I mean, you know, I don't
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: mean I'm going to continue to go off on a
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: tangent here on this, but real quick, you know I've
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: whenever I get a chance with these presidents, I do.
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: I do this with all politicians. I want to find
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: out if they claim to be a sportsman, if they're
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: really a sports fan. And for me, it's a little
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: bit of it's way I find out if somebody's a
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 1: bullshit or not. I've done this with politicians. I've done
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: this with multiple presidents, where you know, you just want
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 1: to find out what's the level of their fandom. Right
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 1: with Obama, I've had both fascinating experience talking to him
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: about basketball and college basketball where he goes real deep. Right,
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: it is clear he is watching more games than I'm watching.
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 1: This was even when he was president. This was what
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: he was doing at night, you know, in between I
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: think read reading policy papers. But ask him about baseball.
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: I remember one time asking him about a Key White
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: Sox trade. This was evolving his favorite team. He didn't know,
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: he didn't paid attention to the trade. I don't think
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 1: he was a huge baseball fan. George W. Bush. He
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 1: really knew his baseball, don't. I never got a chance
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: to quiz him on other sports, and he's never never
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 1: heard him talk too much about other sports. He goes
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 1: to a lot of SMU basketball games, so we do
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 1: see him, we do see him there from Afar, But
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: boy does he go deep on baseball. He knows who
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 1: the top prospect. He doesn't just know major league teams.
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 1: He knows, he's paid attention to that, the top ten prospects.
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 1: He always knows, not just with the Rangers. It was
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 1: very simp of the way Obama knew basketball college and pro,
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 1: the way Bush knew baseball. Bill Clinton voracious sports appetite.
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 1: Basketball for sure, Football very very much college oriented. Because
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 1: of Arkansas, there's no pro teams there. With Donald Trump,
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 1: any of you that have ever spent time with him,
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 1: if you've done the same, you've probably had the same experience.
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 1: It's shocking how little he actually understands the game itself.
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 1: He knows the celebrities, the players that have hit celebrity status,
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: right Tom Brady. He knows the owners because he wanted
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: to be an owner. There's that great line during his
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 1: first campaign for the presidency when he said he was
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 1: asked about what he knew about NASCAR, and he didn't
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: really know anything about Nascar, But he goes, but I
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: know the owners. I know some of the owners. And
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 1: even now you see it's very rudimentary, there's no right
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 1: the level of knowledge about the game itself, and it
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 1: really you know, he really exposed his ignorance about football
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 1: when he's been complaining about the kickoff rule, and you're like,
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 1: have you not paid attention that we hadn't actually had
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: any active kickoffs for about ten years ever since everybody
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 1: figured out it was just easier to kick it out
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: of bounds and don't risk a run back, don't risk
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 1: giving up good field position. And now we have this
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: new rule that actually encourages kickoff returns, and he complains
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 1: about it like it's somehow weak or woke. I mean,
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 1: it really was a he was. You know, sometimes you're like, dude,
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 1: you have no clothes on. You are literally making a
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: point that is the exact opposite of the point you
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 1: think you're making. So I know some of you think
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 1: all I do is pile on Trump, But man, I'm
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 1: telling you, the guy doesn't know anything about actual sports.
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 1: He knows about sports the way he knows about Hollywood.
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: He knows names, all right, but he's not really a fan.
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: He doesn't really know these games. And anybody who knows
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: him and who's had these conversations with him, you know
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 1: I'm right about this. You just can't say it. Yeah,
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: I can't. Next question comes from Matt from Arlington, Texas.
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 1: All Right, how about them Cowboys? Yeah? How about them? Chuck?
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: Huge fan of the podcast. In your analysis, I've noticed
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: some parallels between John Fetterman's trajectory in the Senate and
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 1: Kirsten Cinemas both sometimes seemed willing to buck their party
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 1: spase in ways that complicate reelection check. Am I off base? Nope?
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: Or have the parties become so polarized that even occasional
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 1: breaks from the base carry real political risk. Keep up
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 1: the good work back from Marlington, Texas? Yeah, I think
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 1: those are That's a terri In fact, it goes deeper.
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: I mean, both Vetterman and Cinema were We're not just
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: seen as sort of natural Democrats, they were progressive. Kristen
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 1: Cinema was a member of the Green Party i think
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 1: before she became a member of the Democratic Party, and
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 1: Fetterman was seen as a Bernie Sanders guy, not just
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 1: any any just conventional Democrat, Pensylvania Democrat. Look, I think
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: this is a real problem for both parties at this point.
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think this is why you've got a
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 1: guy like you know, it's a lot it's a lot
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 1: easier to if to say what you want to say,
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: that you think voters, that you think things that would
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: resonate with voters, that doesn't alienate the groups, and it's
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: not you know the you know, it's interesting. There was
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: there's a there's a brand new NBC News pull out,
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: and I'm going to go into it deeper with you
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: later in the week because I like to dig into
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 1: the cross tabs, and I haven't seen the cross tabs yet,
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: but they do ask an interesting question among Republicans and
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: Democrats about their vote for Congress this year, if they're
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: going to participate in the primaries, and are they looking
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: for candidates who agree with them more in issues or
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: candidates that can win in the general election. And while
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 1: a majority of both parties say they're always looking for
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: people that are close to their issues, it was like
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 1: twenty three percent of Republicans said they were looking for
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 1: the most electable, seventy plus percent looking for people that
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 1: agree with them issues. But among Democrats it was like
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 1: fifty four percent saying they were looking for people that
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 1: agree on issues, but over it was about forty one
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 1: or forty two that said they were looking for the
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: most electable. So you do have and this is where
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: I think that Democratic Party leaders and the leaders of
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 1: the interest groups on the left are couldn't be more
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 1: out of sync with their own primary voters, right, you
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 1: have a large chunk of primary voters that are looking
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 1: for essentially friendlier politicians who don't necessarily agree with them
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: on anything everything. They're not putting them to purity tests,
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 1: but you see how much these candidates and these interest
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 1: groups force purity tests. So I you know, Fetterman is
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 1: an economic populist, he's going to be to the left
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 1: of you know, this is why he's going to stay
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 1: a Democrat, but perhaps he ends up running as an independent.
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 1: And look, you know, I think both parties in order
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 1: to sober up, they've stopped being ideologed, accepting ideological diversity. Right,
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: Trump punishes it severely, and essentially Democratic Party leadership does
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 1: not reward it. They don't necessarily punish it, but they
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 1: just they refuse to defend their anybody that ends up
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 1: going off the reservation because they're afraid of the ire
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 1: of left wing interest groups. So we already have this
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 1: problem on the right. And I think that you know,
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 1: the alien look the alienation right if it is, you know,
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: And I think the Democratic Party has to ask itself,
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 1: just like the Republican Party has to ask its itself.
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 1: What doesn't want to be is somebody who's sixty percent
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 1: your friend forty min Let's say let's put it in
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 1: this seventy percent, because that's really where we're looking at
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 1: with betterment and with cinema. Is somebody that's with you
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 1: seventy percent, but they're against you thirty percent on some things?
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 1: Would you rather than be a Republican? Would you rather
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 1: than be an independent? Or do you want them a
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 1: part of your coalition? Because I go back to reminding
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 1: democrats on the left in particular of something very there's
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 1: a specific reason why that Democrats have to be more
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 1: pragmatic in reaching out to the middle than the Republicans do.
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: Right now, self described liberal voters are twenty nine percent
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 1: of the electorate in the latest SEMBI Seniors Wall Street
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 1: journable and self described conservative voters are about thirty eight
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 1: percent of the electorate thirty seven percent of the electorate.
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 1: So that's about an eight to nine point gap, which
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 1: means to get to fifty percent plus one, Democrats need
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: more moderates than Republicans need. And when you need more,
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 1: then yes, your base is not going is going to
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: get less of everything they want than the base of
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 1: the right is going to get. And I know that
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 1: frustrates the left, So maybe make your policies more appetizing
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 1: for the mettle if you're hoping to expande your coalition. Well,
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 1: right now, while it is growing slightly the base of
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 1: the left, it is still about ten points lower than
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 1: the base on the right. And that difference is why
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 1: the Republican agenda lean's right and usually a successful Democratic
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 1: agenda agenda leans center left. It's simple math, folks. Next
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 1: question comes from them and Tulsa. Hey, Chuck, just finished
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: listening to the Chris Saliza episode and I thought you
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 1: guys nailed it. The content as great as always, but
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 1: love the dynamic between you two because you both speak
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 1: the same political language, so you can build off each
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 1: other in a satisfying way. Well, thank you and Chris,
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 1: thanks you. Love to see you. Maybe a monthly or
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 1: even a monthly series with you, guys. I'm sure there
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 1: will be more than enough major events to warrant a
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 1: recurring meeting either way. La cheeseerie and keep up the
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 1: good work. M in Tulsa. I love that you're in.
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 1: Do you have any fun gadgets for us to use?
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 1: I'm thinking James Bond here am in all seriousness, you
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 1: may not realize this and maybe I do a weekly
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 1: podcast on Chris Silissa's substack. It's behind a paywall. It's
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 1: part of his independent news organization. So we do do
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 1: a weekly together every Monday. It goes up Monday afternoons.
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 1: I do think that Chris is going to come back
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 1: here pretty much after every one of our joint primary nights.
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 1: That's what we've decided to do. So we're gonna do Illinois,
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 1: So we're going to try to get him back here
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 1: at least once a month after one of our big
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 1: primary nights for this calendar year. But yeah, when you've
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 1: known somebody as long as Chris and I have known
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 1: each other, and you know, this goes back to the
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 1: advice that Tony Kornheiser gave me, the advice that I
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: don't know if Tony gave I think Tony gave this
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 1: advice to Bill Simmons, or maybe Bill Simmons gave it
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 1: to Tony. I don't know which right. Who's the who's
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 1: the who's the true podfather? I feel like Tony is
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 1: sort of the the guy that that sort of over
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 1: is sort of over everybody, But it really is is
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 1: talk to your friends because it's the best way to
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 1: convey what you know. You know sometimes when you talk
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 1: to people you don't know all the time. No, not me.
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 1: I like to get to know new people, new ideas.
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 1: So I like a mix, which is why I like
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: to have people I've not had on before. I want,
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 1: I want to be challenged. But I also believe when
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 1: especially when trying to convey what I believe I understand
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 1: about sort of politics in America, doing so with somebody
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 1: that knows your ticks, knows your the good and the
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 1: bad of your ability to go down rabbit holes is
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 1: always a good thing. And I think Solici and I
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 1: are pretty pretty good about that. And here's another one
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 1: for sialism man. I wonder if his ears are burning.
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 1: I'll tell him about this in our Monday episode. Hey,
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 1: thanks for introducing me to Crystaliz's work fascinating the country.
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 1: The county unit of measure got me thinking what if
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 1: the federal statute required US House districts to become either
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 1: contiguous counties or a subdivided county. I think it would
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 1: be better to have multiple representatives per big county, but
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 1: I think we would need a constitutional amendment for that.
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 1: Changing county borders is harder than district gerrymandery would reduce
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 1: the arbitrarrian ness of districts and create a more obvious
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 1: pipeline of county political leadership towards the federal Congress. Cheers
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 1: Judd Montreal. Well, look, I just wouldn't change county lines, right.
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 1: I understand what you're saying, and I think we do
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 1: view county lines. That's sort of more in penn And
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 1: obviously congressional district lines are in pencil. But if you yes,
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 1: it would take a constitutional amendment if you wanted to
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 1: have some restrictions like no congressional seat. You know, I
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 1: will tell you this. I go back to I think
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 1: there needs to be a population standard. Zero point zh
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 1: three percent of the population right now would put it
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 1: to I think about one three hundred fifty thousand. So
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 1: no congressional district could be bigger than larger than point
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 1: oh three percent of the population, so that it always
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 1: was that ratio, right, and so that the ratio was
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 1: the same. You know, you could do some sort of
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 1: contiguous law by miles, You could do a contiguous law
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 1: by acreage, you know. But I think if you started
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 1: with the population size point zh three, I think by
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 1: You couldn't draw a district that wasn't at least somewhat
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 1: more contiguous and at least a community of interests of
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 1: some sort. All right, this is the last question, is
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 1: a six to one of the night, We'll go here.
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 1: Do you think Democrats in Tall Rico will try to
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 1: define the US Nate election once there is a winner
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 1: in the Republican Party runoff, assuming the Democrats do not
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 1: have their own runoffp This was obviously sent before we
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 1: had a before we knew the results twenty twelve Obama
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 1: vers Romeny. This happened on a presidential level with a
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 1: media ad blitz. Sincerely, Avery and Superior Wisconsin. Well, look,
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 1: I'm very curious to see what Taal Rico does during
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 1: this runoff. I think there are I think, look, it
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 1: does appear there's at least some effort, although I think
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 1: Trump's kind of distracted, but there appears to be some
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 1: effort to endorse corn In and see if they can
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 1: work somehow push packed to Now. I think that if
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 1: I were Tall Rico and there's a runoff, I play
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 1: in the runoff. And I think it's a mistake not
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 1: to play in the runoff, Whether it's Tall Rico, whether
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 1: it's the Democratic super packs, because at the end of
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 1: the day, it's a much different race. It's a much
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 1: it's a it's a cleaner campaign to run if you're
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 1: running against PACs Man. I'm not one of those who
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 1: thinks corn is unbeatable. This political environment, it's deteriorating by
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 1: the hour for Republicans. But it's certainly a different race
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 1: against cornin and it's a more costly race because corn
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 1: is going to have a ton more money than Paxton's
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 1: going to have. So it is I do think they
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 1: can't just sit quietly and raise money. They need to
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 1: try to influence the political weather want while they have
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 1: a freehand to do so. Put it this way, if
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 1: the roles were reversed, the Republicans would be doing everything
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 1: they could in their minds to elect Jasmine Crockett in
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 1: the runoff. So if you're Tall Rico, you should do
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 1: everything you can to nominate and to help Ken Paxton
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 1: in the runoff. And if you're not doing that, then
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 1: you're not playing to win. All right, I'm gonna pause there.
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 1: I ended up doing my little sports thing with that.
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 1: I will say this, I'm really I love the World
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 1: Baseball Classic. I really feel sorry for these you know,
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 1: you realize, I mean it is sort of the World
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 1: Baseball Classic is these days, is kind of like it's
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 1: kind of like the way Olympics basketball works now, both
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 1: in men and women. There are really only two or
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 1: three countries that have the ability to beat anybody, and
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 1: the US only has to worry about two or three countries.
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 1: And in this case, the US only has to worry
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 1: about two or three countries, you know, a Dominican and Japan.
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 1: And the real difference you see here is pitching. Right
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 1: you saw it with against Brazil. Those guys could not
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 1: find the strike zone. I think they actually could find
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 1: the strike zone. I think they were afraid to find
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 1: the strike zone, right because the second that ball goes
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 1: into the strike zone, even the number nine hitter Brian
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 1: turrang Man, it's going to crutch that sucker to the wall.
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 1: It is. That's where you see this massive gap right now.
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 1: It's closing a lot, right. It's interesting to see how
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 1: competitive Panama is with Puerto Rico because Puerto Rico a
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 1: little weaker team this year. I think they don't have
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 1: enough pitching to be to sort of get closer to
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 1: the big three countries, right, the dr the US in Japan,
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 1: But you know Puerto Rico and Venezuela are like the
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 1: next two right with maybe with Canada there though they
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 1: also have Most of these countries have pitching issues, right.
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 1: It's pitching depth, and that seems to be the biggest difference.
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 1: It is really only the Japanese, the Dominicans, and the
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 1: Americans that have the pitching depth to handle everything. But
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 1: I had to say, I enjoy all of these games.
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 1: I like seeing the former major leaguers. It was a
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 1: real treat to see Trace Thompson, brother of Klay Thompson.
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 1: I think I sold a rookie autograph of his for
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 1: like three dollars, like five years ago. By the way,
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 1: I thought it would do better than that. But this
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 1: is Michael Thompson's son. Michael Thompson was a center for
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 1: the Lakers, the first center after Kareem. He won a
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 1: title with the Lakers. He had two sons that made
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 1: the major that made the made pro sports leagues. Trace
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 1: Thompson Major League Baseball, Clay Thompson the NBA, and boy
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 1: that height it was man, it was just it was
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 1: a great defensive play. But that was the thing with
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 1: Trace Thompson. There were plenty. It's a reminder great defense
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 1: does not guarantee a major league career. You've got to
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 1: be able to hit the ball, and that was always
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 1: the challenge there for Trace. But it's really fun to
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 1: see to see these these players. I think he was
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 1: on a part of Great Great Britain. If you're in
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 1: the Commonwealth, right, You're why Jazz Chisholm is on Great
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 1: Britain because he's a Bahamian and they're part of the Commonwealth.
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 1: I guess if if if the Bahamas gets gets more
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 1: major league players, they can feel the team. And I
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 1: guess if Canada couldn't field the team, they'd also be
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 1: a part of Great Britain's team. Like if Canada and
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 1: Great Britain, which apparently is grabbing half the Caribbean, and
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 1: the Netherlands grabs the other half of the Caribbean, I
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 1: guess you could put together in the three countries, Canada,
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 1: Great Britain and the Netherlands collectively probably could be a
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 1: top A top four were contesting here. Anyway. I'm also
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 1: caring about the WBC because my son and I plan
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 1: to go to the game when it's in Miami, and
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to it going to a semi final.
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 1: I'm certainly hoping. I know I'm going to get one
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 1: of three teams, right the DR Japan or TM USA.
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 1: I'm hoping I've picked the right semi final game and
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 1: I get the one that is he that is either
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 1: Team D I hope it's the d R versus Japan,
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 1: and you Team USA has already made the final. But
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 1: either way, I think I want to say I always
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 1: want to see o Tani. I think he's the I
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 1: think he is the He is the biggest guarant He
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 1: and Judge are close to being the biggest guarantees of
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 1: a show in sport, in baseball right where you feel
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 1: like if you go to a game of one of
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 1: those two guys, there's a chance you're going to see
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 1: something special, you know. I got to see Mike Trott's
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 1: rookie year. Was it a White Sox game doing some
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 1: interview was from my old Obama book. It was Mike
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 1: Trodd and his rookie heear first game I ever seen
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 1: him play, hits a home run and he took one
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 1: away in center field, and I thought, I've had the
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 1: full mic trout experience. That's I think how it feels
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 1: with Doughtani these days. I mean, imagine being a Japanese
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 1: member of that crowd. First night, of course he hits
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 1: a grand Slam. I mean, you can take Otani the
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 1: bank or Aaron Judge. First game, of course he hits
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 1: a home run. Some of these guys, man, they just
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 1: they're that good. Right now, baseball is lucky, so this
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 1: is such a great time for baseball to have a workstoppage. Anyway,
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 1: but I digress. Next week it's gonna be a lot
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 1: of college basketball. I'm gonna warn you now. I'm a
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 1: big fan of the tournament. My favorite bets to make
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 1: are these unders teams. They don't know how to shoot
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 1: in these new arenas. That's what those that make money
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 1: gambling do. Those that throw money away chase the great
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 1: teams and do stupid parlays. So there's your your bad
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 1: gambling tip of the day. And with that, I'll see
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 1: in forty eight hours. Enjoy the next two days.