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The Favorites - NFL Week 14 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: It's the Favorites Podcast presented by Fandoel. It might be cold,
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  Speaker 1: in Wyoming, or visit www Dot one Gambler dot net
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: in West Virginia. Welcome the Favorites the podcast from the
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: Volume Podcast Network. I am Shad Nolman, Chief Content Officer
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: of the Action Network. I am joined as I am
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: every episode by my co host, my bff, my companion,
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: my compadre, professional better, Simon Hunter, Simon Simon. We're gonna
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: get into it. Okay, everyone's asking us to get into it. Boy,
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: did we have a brilliant It's week. Last week? We
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: were right about Foxholt minus three and a half. We
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: were right on Simon says Giants plus two and a half.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: We were right on the exact decision since he plus
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: two and a half. We were right on the big
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: balls better the week Rams plus eight, Scoot Troulette. You
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: had the forty Niners minus three and a half. I
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: stuck to my guns with the Titans plus five. Um,
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: the only blemish on the whole record. Dude, you know what,
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: I knew it was going down by Sunday morning. I
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: knew it. Yeah, we I did. We'll get into it
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: right away. Uh, you know, great week for us in
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: the contest. We went three and two. Our teams were
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: the Titans, which lost. We had That's which lost. Then
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: we had the Rams, the Niners, and the Raiders all
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: which one. So great week for us before we get
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: into Titans the Raiders three and two week. Tell me,
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: did we make up any ground of the contest? Did
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: we lose ground on the contest? We Yeah, that was
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: an easy week. We should have we should have won
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: five and over four and one. So we dropped the
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: game again. But that's okay. I mean, it's kind of
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: how it goes. I don't know if we're gonna drop
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: it into people right away or we want to wait
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: till Thursday so they can maybe jack together this out.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: But we're taking a bye week this week. We have
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: to use a bye week. Me and I've been saving
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: it for this week for weeks now. Um, so I
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: think there's what six teams on a bye We did
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: the math, I mean it's one of it's me on
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: the worst weeks, the hated captures because it's the fewest options.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: So again, this week, nothing changed on the show. We'll
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: still give everything out. But I think Matt Mitchell doesn't
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: wan us to put in the app I'll be the
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: only difference. I'll still put it out on Twitter and
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: everything what our five would have been. But yeah, it's
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: gonna be nice. We're gonna take a nice, little, well
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: earned break after we've had this week. Fourth team. We've
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: had two losing weeks at a thirteen weeks so eleven
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: and two winning weeks. It's been a good year. We've
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: we deserve a little break from a weekend. Yeah, I
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: mean in last week was excruciating because we lost the
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: Jets and we lost the Titans in the earlier games,
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: so we needed to go three, you know with the Raiders,
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: the Forts, the Raiders forty nine and who else was it?
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: And of course in the first five minutes Jimmy goes out,
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: so um. Anywayshen too was just brutal because I was like,
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: my whole thing is we've never gone own five and
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: I want that three on my tombstone. Um, And that
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: was in real jeopardy when we started owing two and
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: I was panicking. I was like, holy shit, are we
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: finally going five? But yeah, three straight winners the end
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: of the four o'clock games, save it. Three and two
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: weeks that that was falling. Thank God, Thank freaking God,
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: onto the Titans for a second, because I was on it.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: You were not, and on convinced me on Sunday, this
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: show we do on Sunday Mornings, we had a graphic
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: me you, raybon Kerner. Everybody was on the Titans except
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: for you, and you stuck to your guns. You said,
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: this is why I do it professionally kind of, but
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: but you got to admit that, like if you were
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: on an island in the universe, not just professionally, like
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: the professionals sharp calls, they all like the Titans, that
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: line moved from six and a half down to four
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: and a half. It wasn't public money moving that line.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I would say that the pros that were
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: at six and six and a half, which I give
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: them the benefit of doubts. So that's the good value.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: The value it shifted. That was my whole reason for
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: loving the Eagles. But I'll let you get off easy.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: You just have to do two things. Do you want
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: to do the two things? Get off easy? I don't
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: know all right. First one is our sports books your
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: friends chat our sports books, your friend Chimon. Sports books
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: are not our friends. You already passed that one. Good job.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: Number two who wrote the book, Fuck you. I wrote
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: the book. I'm telling you right now. I I wrote
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: the book. Sports books are not our friends. It's funny.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: I was today recording this from are still being constructed
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: about eight done Action Network Studio in the city. Took
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: the train into the city from Connecticut this morning, and
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: I was looking at the games and we're gonna get
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: into it, and thinking about games that I like, and
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: there was a number and I thought to myself, sports
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: books are not our friends. There you go, that's what
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to get into. Some people like, was I
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: trying to get chattowheart time last week? No? But my
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: whole point is when he was coming at me about
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: why I was taking the Bills, who were a road
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: favorite against New England, and while I was taking the
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: Eagles against the Tennessee Titans, was just a simple fact
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: of you can't just always blindly go with what it
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: got you. There. There are weeks to weeks, the rhythm
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: to this whole football season. That's my job. That's kind
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: of ride that rhythm. And it is week the week
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: and I do feel sick to my stomach doing this
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: stuff like that Bills bet that was scary as hell.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: We saw the reverse line action. I think it opened
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: at five or five and a half. It was three
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: and a half by kickoff. I was like, okay, I
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: might have made a huge mistake on this Bills game.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: What happened? The Bills blow them out? Eagles, same thing, Eagles.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: I thought you were getting a good number five and
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: a half. I thought I wasn't going back up to six.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: Went the other way. It dropped the four or four
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: and a half. Yeah, that's a it's a lonely feeling.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: Chat what you talked about? So what I al ways try.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: I explained that people is again be nice to chat. Chad,
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: he did something I didn't think was possible, which he
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: actually hired a professional better and let them into this
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: whole media world where looking from the outside, I just
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: never understood it because I just looked at a whole
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: sea of phonies and it was just like, there aren't
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: hundreds of these people out there that are sports professionals
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: and they just happened to work in media as well.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: So when Chad allowed me into his world and allowed
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: me into this whole media thing, it's for games like
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: that where it's like, yeah, it's a lonely feeling being
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: on the eagles there. But I think people learn from
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: that where it's like what you just said, you kind
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: of want to be that guy, right, you want to
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: be the guy by yourself against everyone else because that
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: tends to be the right side. So not a good feeling. Honestly,
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: it was like scary as hell because I had a
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: decent amount of money in the you was and then
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: we end up taking the times in the contest, and
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: I was like, Jesus, what am I rooting for here?
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: But the best thing happened where they just got blown
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: the hell out, so I didn't have to hear from
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: chat and even being like a close game, no excuse,
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: it was just the wrong side. But then it happens
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: like you make bad bets, you move on, and that's
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: kind of how it goes, where yeah, I'd love to
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: take a victory lap, but I was already onto this
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: week by Sunday night, Like it's just such a short
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: lived feeling of winning and gambling world where yeah, that
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: was fun on Sunday, but I was kind of already
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: on the week fourteen come under listen, by the way,
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: I also love the Lions, and you love Jacksonville. I
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: wanted to put the Broncos in. You didn't want to
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: do it. What do you mean? I gave you Pittsurick,
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: and I gave you the lines, and I stopped you
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: from taking the Bears. Don't don't try to flip this. No, no, no,
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: no no. We were never taking the Bears wanted. It
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: came down. It came down to the Jets and the Lions,
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: and we just did no, no, no. It came down
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: the Jets and Bengals, Bengals and Jets. The Bengals are
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: one and a half. That was the only reason we
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: didn't play. We wanted the two and a half. That's right.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: But I was really I did like I did like
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: the Jaguars. The only reason I said let's take Detroit
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: was I think it was plus one and a half
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: or plus a half. The line had shifted the minus two,
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: so I was like, we could take lines. We want
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: the value. But yeah, three and two. I obviously wish
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: we'd gone four on one. I mean, the Jets game
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: we barely even talked about, but it was just like excruciating. Yeah,
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: you're typical. The sports book just knows. We're like, all
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: that money was coming on the Jets all week at
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: plus three and never moved. I thought they were misreading
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: the situation. I thought they got the line wrong. Somehow
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: they knew this guy was gonna drop the ball in
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: the back of the ends and the end of that game.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: So yeah, the books, the books got lucky on that.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: I want, but that's kind of how it goes. All right, Well,
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: we'll get into some of the Jets stuff. We'll get
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: into the Lions. Those are the Jets Vikings and then
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: the Lions Jags. The Lions are playing the Vikings this week.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: It's a game that I'm really interested in. You. I
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: haven't talked about it, but all right, Thursday night football,
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: Raiders visiting the Rams. All of a sudden, the Raiders
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: six point favorites on the road. At the Rams, we
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: were ahead of the curve on the Rams. We loved him.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: Last week at plus two, that line moved all the
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: way to Raiders minus two. We were on the Rams
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: that game opened to date, it closed about six and
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: a half. So we like both of these teams last week.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: Is that influencing are thinking with the line this week?
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: Raiders nearly touchdown favorites on the road. Yeah, the Thursdays
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: are just tough for me. Right, even people can notice
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: it last week, right, usually go with the favorite, even
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: if they're on the road. And then since it late
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: in this season, on short weeks, it's a big deal
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: to just be the better team. It's because you don't
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: really have time to scheme. Right, most of these guys there,
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: they just got a car accident. That's how they those
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: football players descryed playing football. They got a car accident
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: on Sunday, the body rest Monday. Maybe they come in
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: on Tuesday for treatment and some film watch, do a
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: walk through on Wednesday, and then they have the game Thursday.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: Like that's literally these guys weeks this week, there's not
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: much prep time. So, I mean, Chad knows we almost
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: always take the Rams here. I just have no play
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: because I kind of want to take the Raiders. The
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: fact that's under seven, I think you're getting a good
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: number of the Raiders. But this Rams team we saw
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: last week in Seattle, they have players that can make place.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: Like got guys who have filled in and can't get
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: open it can make play. So I don't know what
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: to do with this point. I it's a it's a
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: game that I usually would go with the Rams, but
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: there's just there's just so much here to unpack between
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: these two teams on a short week, I'll probably have
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: a pick for it by Thursday. Like again, we'll do
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: two shows on Thursday, and I'll have more better in
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: front this game by then. But as we sit here
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: right now, um, I leaned towards the Raiders. We'll do
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: a podcast on Thursday, and of course we'll do our
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: Action Island show also presented. Here's one game that I'm
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: one team that I'm really glad we didn't get suckered
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: into going into the weekend. I love the Rams, I
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: love the Broncos. We made the Rams big balls better
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: the week I was totally comfortable with it being the
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: Broncos to bet them both avoided the Texans, avoided the
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: Texans curse just decided, as you said, you gotta play
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: the flow. You can't just play the number and Texts
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: are just a terrible team. And so there was like
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: everything they can go wrong for the Texans went wrong.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: Every way that the Browns can score other than an offense.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: They scored, and the Texans still couldn't cover that game.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: They are now seventeen point underdogs to the Dallas Cowboys.
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: You know, we joke lash Show. I said, eventually the
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: the books gonna get Houston right, and we'll figure out
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: this line. I'm just tal gonna be one paying for
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: it to figure out one that that is because there's
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: just how other games are rather invested in. Houston is
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: a team to me that that first half was I
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: felt like it was gonna be easy money. We all
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: knew Watson was gonna be rusty. Um, I believe it
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: was five nothing and something stop bad. I don't know
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: if they threw a pick or whatever it was, but
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: it was it was it was maybe it was a
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: kick return, whatever it was. Cleveland scored. Then they scored again,
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: and it was just and one of the first time
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: I can remember team had twenty twenty one points and
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: their offense had zero of those points like their defensive
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: special teams that scored all of it. So yeah, Houston
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: is an absolute train wreck. Um, Dallas, this is always
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: the games they let down and let teams covering. Uh
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: after a huge blowout. But they're so good, Like they're
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: so good defensively, they're so good offensively how Boys are
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: gonna be one of these teams. They're gonna get hyped,
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: just like the forty nine is where these last couple
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: of weeks, and I'm gonna stay with I said with again,
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: Jimmy played well. I still don't think he's playing as
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: well as people thought he was Jimmy Garoppoloa. That's why
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: I don't know if it's that big of a deal
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: that he's out now. And the same goes for Dak.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: Since Dad has been back, if you look at his numbers,
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: they're all not that impressive. He's been just very bless
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: where he has Pollard, a great offensive line and a
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: great defense where they're kind of hiding all these deficiencies
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: that Dec has had since he's been playing this year,
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: He's just not the same quarterback he's been. So I'm
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: excited for the Cowboys. I think they might end up
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: being a top sea. They can even steal this division
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: from the Eagles the way the season plays out with
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: different matchups in different games. But come come February or January,
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: I'm just not gonna be back in this Cowboys team.
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: I think that has major issues that he has not
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: figured out yet. So just going off this matchup right now.
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: Chad said it, like, aren't we supposed to take a
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: seventeen and a half? This is an insane number. Um
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: that's will probably end up. Will this be one of
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: my five biggest bets this week? No what, I'm just
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: not gonna be paying for that experience for the Houston team.
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: Not a chance. And it's the exact reasons why we
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: walked away from him. Look, we saw it on Monday
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: night or on Sunday night when the Cowboys played the Colts.
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: This team can get very explosive, very fast. You can
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: score in any way. The Texans really have no offensive
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: firepower to speak of. Kyle Allen is a sitting doct
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: back there. Yeah, it's varsity versus j V. Like there's honestly,
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: you know how sometimes you worry about a back door
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: cover and number this big, I worry about a front
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: door cover, like like they're going to find a way
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: to extend the lead when it's thirteen seventeen later. We
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: saw when they covered against the Eagles team you just
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: need a lot of things that bounce your away and
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: for Houston to cover that game, they had a touchdown
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: the opening drive and they had a touchdown right before
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: the end a half, and they scored three points the
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: rest of the game. So that's one of those where
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: it's just like, that's what I just said, How how
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: do you see Houston getting points? I just can't do it.
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: That's what's hard for me to back this number. You
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: watch that game together, the Cleveland Browns Deshaun Watson the
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: second game back or visiting the Cincinnati Bengals. Do you
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: know how I feel about the Bengals three weeks in
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: a row, on the Bengals, on the Bangles, on the Bengals,
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: made of my exact decision last week. I just think
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: Joe Burrow is so special, really manages the game, and
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: I don't mean that in a pejorative way. He just
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: understands the flow in the rhythm and is unafraid in
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: the moments where you cannot show fear. What's interesting about
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: this game. The bets are on the Bengals at minor six.
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: The money is relatively split. So what that's telling me
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: is that wise guys are coming in on the Browns
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: at plus six, and I kind of buy it. People
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: are gonna notice the feme Me and Chad we had
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: a couple of favorites we love last week. This week
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: it is just I love a lot of dogs and
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: this is one of them. People remember one of my
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: bigger bets. I think I might even a Simon says
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: play was that Brown's at home on Halloween against the Bengals.
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: I think it was three and a half, same exact scenario.
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: The Browns team looked awful the week before. The Bangles
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: are getting all the hype in the world, right, they
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: just had a big win. It's another game of I'm
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: not back in Watson. This is more of a back
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: of Their defense for some reason, matches up really well
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: against what Joe Burrow and this offense wants to do.
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: And in Joe's career, I'd have to look, but I
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: think he is owen four straight up any being the Browns, right,
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: I think that is right, though I think he's never
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: beating the Browns in Israeli career. He might have missed
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: the game because that a c out there, but in
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: the games he's played, he's just struggled against this defense
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: for some reason, the way they scheme it with their
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: cornerbacks and their safeties, and Male's Garrett always plays well
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: against the Cincinnati front line. It is a really bizarre
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: matchup in that sense, but just off, not going off
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: any of that. This number should before like this number
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: is ballooned up on what we just talked about. Joe.
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: Joe is he's gonna be that guy this week talked
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: about m VP like I'm not sure what his odds
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: were at the start of the week and now what
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: they are. But you have a game like that when
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: he had against the Chiefs, which was not perfect but
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: close to it, like anytime they needed to throw down
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: a big play, Joe kept doing it like you had
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: to talk about He's been doing it for weeks. Now.
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: They're on a really hot run, uh ten and one
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: their last eleven eighths. It's incredible what this team has done.
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: But this number is inflated, and it's it's an inflating
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: the number in a divisional game, I always back the
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: dog in those sides, so I wanted to be on
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: the Bengals. I was hoping that value would come down
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: because Watson was back, and I was like, maybe this
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: will open at three and a half. I could grab that.
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: They did it. It opened up at like six six
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: and a half staying at six. Maybe it's gonna drop
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: a little bit, but I grabbed that six now just
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: to be safe. I agree. I love it, love it,
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: wants some more of it. Interesting that we have three
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: in state games Texans, Cowboys, Brown's, Bengals, Jets, Bills, just
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: a cork of the Yeah, I didn't think of that
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: quirk of the schedule. Nothing significant, just interesting. It's like
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: that's the kind of thing Scott Hanson would drop in
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: red zone. Jets nine and a half point dogs at
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: the Bills? Did the Bills get right against the Patriots?
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: To the Jets blowing an opportunity to move up in
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: the standings against the Vikings? Is Mike White for real? Uh?
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: Very interesting team right now? My first instinct, not and
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: a half feels like a lot Jets defense a lot.
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: That's what I hate it. It feels like another game
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: like I'm hoping I get calls a by this one.
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: Friends there not a friend. So that's my issue, whether
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: where it's like me chatter all over this Jets team
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: when they upset and beat this Bills team and now
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: they're sucking us back and again it's like nine points,
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: nine points that's insane. So yeah, I haven't bet this one.
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to do with it yet. Um,
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: there will no doubt be a call. I'm looking around
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: at people seeing people are betting because it feels like
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: another game of everyone's gonna be all over the Jets
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: because of what I just said, Like, that's a lot
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: of points for a good Jets defense and offense that
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: can clearly move the ball. They punted that they punted
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: one time again to have Vikings teams. So um one
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: of the fifth year lines of the week. This one
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: early leaning though, is obviously towards the Jets. But I
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: haven't bet this yet. Yeah, it's uh. I want to
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: wait and see what the markets do on this. I
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: also think it'll be interesting to see if we get
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: any sharp calls about this one. Yeah. I don't know
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: if they're going to touch it though that's the only one,
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: because that's I feel like they might feel like me,
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: where it's like, what in the world, it's either the
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: Jets or nothing. I feel like most people are gonna
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: feel the same. What all right, this one? I know
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: we're going to talk about Eagles on the road seven
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: point favorites against the New York Football Giants. Do you
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: want to say it once again? Simon says the Giants
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: sime I knew it, you know you and I didn't
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: discuss it. But that's why I said, do you want
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: to say it? Because I had a feeling we were
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: going to Giants plus seven and the same reason we
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: took the Giants last week. I just feel like the
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: number is gonna move and the numbers inflated, where last
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: week I had the game of a pick. I really
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: think it was gonna end in a tie. No, but
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: it is. It is a great feeling the models hitting
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: that well. That game. Literally, I was just on the under.
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: I had the game of forty and I had that
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: game of a pick. The game literally in a pick
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: and under forty. That's like, if you're a nerd you
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: love building models, that's like the best feeling in the world.
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: So that under, by the way, I had a half yeah,
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: I mean if yeah. The fact we won that game
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: so stupid, so like not to score basically the entire
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: second half. It was at halftime I think, and the
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: Giants scored one touchdown early in the third quarter. Nobody
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: scored again was excruciating. So for this matchup, it's a
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: divisional matchup between two teams that we know what everyone
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: thinks to the Eagles. Now, people got burned bad by them.
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: Usually when that happens, people come in really heavy on
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: that side. And the fact that books now are hanging
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: six and a half, that's why I want people to
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: grab the seven now. I just can see this coming down.
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: The pros are gonna bet this number down to six,
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: I believe, and the public they love it. This is
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: gonna be one of the biggest tease games of the week.
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: Everyone will have this in a teaser, just a classic
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: public side. And me and chadn't even talked about it,
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: but last week on Sunday. I think the favorites when
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: one straight up. Usually the final week there are some
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: big upsets. So this is a game I have circled
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: Rare Eagles. We saw them struggle already this year with
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: divisional teams. We saw them lose at home against Washington,
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: the game they should have probably won. The same thing here,
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: it's it's a big number in a divisional game, should
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: be four and a half. Four. It's inflated up so
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: much now just because I feel like the Shines kind
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: of rubbed off on the Shints team on the flip side,
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: hurts he's almost tied. AWLB Mahomes bram v pods like
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: the Eagles are just being hyped up to no end
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: right now. So um, that was a nice bilow last
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: week on the Eagles. This week, I'll still high on them.
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: I'll go with the Giants again. Yeah, you know this
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: the Giants. It's a divisional game, Giants at home, playoff implications,
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: all the things you said, plus the inflation on the Eagles. Yes,
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: back the Giants. The other thing I'll say is uh
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: pricing the juice on this at plus seven is already
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: below minus one ten, which basically tells you get it
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: now because it's moving fast and it is a prose
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: Joe's game. The bets on the Eagles, the money on
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: the Giants. Looking to get more out of this NBA season, well,
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• 25:11
  Speaker 1: pros Joe's game right now Jaguars plus four against the Titans,
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: seventy the bets on the Titans seventy of the money
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: on the Jags. Yeah, I would say they're they're thinking
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: is correct and that this line is inflated, that tell
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: yous are not that much better of a team on
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: paper than that the Jaguars are. Well, we've seen it
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: earlier with this Jaguars team. They don't know how to
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: finish games and they're just bad in the second half.
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: And they've had many games like that where they've been
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: in it and they've let things slide. So I would
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: love to take the Jaguars here, but the value is
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: definitely on the Titans here in the sentence that this
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: is a good bounce back spot for them, that gets
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: a team that has been horrible on the road historically.
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: When we saw that last week with the they just
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: didn't not They look flat like they came out out
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: golf was tearing them up all up and down the field.
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: I'm on St. Brown was open anytime you wanted to
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: get open. And I know obviously Tennessee has injuries to
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: the wide receiver position that could be a big issue
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: to them, but man, it's hard to pass at that
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: number at four um, maybe I'll just stay away from it,
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: but it feels like Tennessee is the right side here.
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: To me, it's a pass right now. There's two. The
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: thing that makes it interesting to me is great coaching matchup.
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: You're not there's no advantage that you're getting in the
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: coaching matchup comparable in terms of the need. Right. I
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: think they played each other twice the rest of the year.
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: Still an opportunity for the Jags to win the division
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: if they can sweep the Titans and one or two
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: good things that's true, So there is some incentive and
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: then you've got just the divisional component of it, like
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: a divisional favorite, a divisional game of more than three,
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: you kind of lean Jacks. But I don't trust this team,
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: don't trust him at all. Yeah, I feel like the
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: books aren't giving to enough of value on the Jack
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: team that I have to look and I honestly think
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: they're two and eight teams something crazy like that. A
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: t S on the road. I know Evan put out
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: something last week about it. They've just struggled mightily, and
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: that's why I was okay with let's put the lines
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: and then look what happened, like one by thirty. So yeah,
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: I just I'm not I'm done betting the Jaguars on
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: the road. They clearly have issues with this team traveling
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: Vikings visiting the Lions. The Lions are two and a
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: half point favorites. This line has moved up, opened it
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: one and a half moved up today like in the
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: last few hours. I don't know. It's because I picked
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: the Lions on our show Green Dot Daily that airs
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: at newn Eastern on at Action Network Network HQ and
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: in the app I'm Gonna Eat this exact decision on
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: the Lions. I still like the Lions at less than
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: a field goal of the money on the lines right now,
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: but on the Vikings, so it's a pro joe game.
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: Pros on the Lions, they're just a better team. Like
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: I know, it sounds crazy to say it. The Vikings
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: again a one score game, gave up nearly five yards
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: to the Jets. They jett punted at one time. They
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: scored one touchdown like the Lions since aman Ra st
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: Brown came back, since they had their by The Lions
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: are comparable to the Bengals in terms of their rankings
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: for advanced metrics on offense and defense and their lights
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: out at home. So I love, love, love the Lions
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: in the spot by the way, Simon, where two Lions
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: wins away from cashing our over ticket for the season,
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: which was our probably our biggest preseason wind total future
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: do you agree or disagree? Lions exact decision exact decision
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: by Chad Woman. Yeah, of course, this is one of
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: these games. I better early, but the Lions on the
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: open as a dog. Um it flipped right away. I
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: think Sunday Night to them being favorites. A classic game
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: of public perception versus professional betters, how they view certain
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: teams at certain lines. Um, but if this hits three
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: three and a half for the Vikings, the value is
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: gonna flip. And that's the toughest part about doing this,
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: where it's like I want to take the lines two
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: and a half, I'd still take them like Chad's doing
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: right now. I think that's a good number. But in
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: divisional game like this, if it gets the three, the
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: Lions don't blow teams out usually like that was insane
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: what they did last week. They usually play close games.
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: That's what the Lakings do as well. They've had two
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: losses this year, both those losses that got blown the
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: hell out. Every other game has been a one score
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: game they've won. So I'm with you, they're lucky as hell,
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: but I've been paying for it. Like my two biggest
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: bets I won this year, one was the Eagles against them,
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: the other one was Dallas against them. But I'm giving
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: a lot of it back last week New England, yeah,
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: I can say they were unlucky and there's a lot
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: of special teams bys. The Vikings won that game, the
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: Jets game. What was the crazy stat the Jets had
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: five five trips to the red zone. There are five
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: for five on goals, laing core single touchdown. The Vikings
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: went three for three on touchdowns and the other on
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: the other end. So yeah, they keep winning by weird
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: ways and that's just kind of how teams are. So
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: we'll be able to get value next year fading them.
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: But there could be that wonkie team chat. So as
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: long as you know that, as we're back the lines,
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: it's it sucks. It's like the worst feeling right now
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: as you bet against this Vikings team, because that felt
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: like the right side that the Jets. It felt like
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: everything one exactly as we thought. I thought there'd be
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: a lot of points because they didn't our sound good
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: Mike White was, you have a chance to win it
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: there at the end and it just didn't happen. So
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: not gonna overreact and not cashing deaths two weeks in
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: a row. I'll stay with Chad, stay the course, keep
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: fading this Vikings team who was just getting very very
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: lucky these last couple of weeks. So under three, you
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: should grab the lines of line, grab it, grab it.
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: It won't last. Folks. Ravens on the road at the Steelers,
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: the resurgence Steelers. We've said this on the podcast. Kenny
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: pick it's a gamer um, and they are figuring out
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: ever since the by He's just been a better team
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: and they're getting George Pickens more involved in the offense. Uh.
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: You saw Nagi Harris with some angry runs. But really
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: it's about Kenny Pickett and his ability as a playmaker.
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: He's been fantastic, plus having t J Wack back again.
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: He was injured last week and went out at the
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: end of the game. UM Steelers two and a half
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: point favorites on the road against the Ravens. I don't
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: have a strong opinion here yet. Yeah, I love the
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: Ravens at three. If it touches three again, I'll grab
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: it again. Through a little on the three. They moved
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: the right to two and a half. Both these teams
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: without Lamar are the same team. They're gonna both rely
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: heavily on their defense. So a game if you're not
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: a couple of taking aside, just bet the under. I don't.
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: I just think both these teams are gonna struggle to
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: score points and what will be a defensive battle. Um.
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: The no Lamar thing is huge though, for this Ravens team.
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: But the fact that this game open it to pick,
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: it's moved to two and a half three, it seems
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: like a little bit of an overreaction on just a
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: simple fact that Lamar hasn't been playing that well anyway
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: down the stretch here. I saw enough in that offense
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: last week with the kind of got a rhythm they moved.
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: They're able to move a ball against a really good
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: Denver defense, and never defense is better than Pittsburgh's defense.
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: So um, in a divisional matchup like this, if Tomlin
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: was the dog, I would love him here with his
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: backup quarterback. It's no different with Horrible Like we've seen
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: these kind of matchups between these teams for the last
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: twenty years. Um, you kind of throw the quarterbacks out
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: and it's kind of a battle between two defenses. And
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: that's what feels like this game is gonna be. It's
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: kind of gonna be the old old school early two
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: thousand's battle. That's Pittsburgh Ravens defenses. So like the under
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: the most here, but the gets up three, I'll be
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: back on the Ravens a two and a half and
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: no real play for me right now, that's total on
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: this game at fan Duel is thirty six and a
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: half down a lot. That is the I'm looking at
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: the fan due app right now. That is the lowest
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: total on the board. The next lowest is Bucks nine
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: ers at thirty seven and a half. Nothing else in
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: the thirties that I've seen. Yeah, that's a low number.
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: You know what I feel like? Uh, wasn't someone at
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: thirty six or thirty five and a half this? It
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: might have been the Bengal the However, the Broncos played
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago, right, yeah, Broncos Carolina which yeah,
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: which went way under um. All right, I will say
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: this right now as I said it last week for
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: the Rams, very early, big balls better the week contender
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: Broncos plus nine and a half at home against the Chiefs. Wait.
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: Last week I was slacking with Matt Mitchell and signed
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: and every morning I woke up wanting about the Broncos. Waited, waited, waited.
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: It got to my to plus ten for about five minutes.
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: I better to play ten and felt great about it.
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: I'm waiting for this to get the plus ten because
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: of the money is on the Chiefs the best, but
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: the Broncos at the side here. Signmon. Yeah, I mean,
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: if you want to say every big balls, I was
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: gonna make this our foxhold. But we can do big
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: balls for this one. Dude. I'll listen. I want the
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: Broncos on our slate. That's all I'm saying. It's gonna
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: be talk about. Yeah, Foxil Broncos. We're in the Foxil
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: we talked about last week. We're mean chat. We felt
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: gross doing it, but it was just the media was
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: just so bashing this Denver team. Everyone was bashed them.
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: No one was betting them. Everyone's talking bad about them.
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: The books kept bumping the line up because they're in
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: begging people to put money on Denver, and I didn't.
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: I hated myself ward. I literally hated myself. Word she
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: was a game kicked off. I hated having the money
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: on Denver. As you know, I saw Russell Wilson get
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: the ball. I hated myself. We're putting money on Denver.
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: He's the worst. They are so bad offensively, it is
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: truly painful to watch. But I kept seeing myself, you're
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: not betting them for Russia, you're betting them for the defense.
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: Did we get lucky as ship that Lamar went out.
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: Sure we knew that game was gonna be low scoring.
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: That's just how those games that game was gonna playoff.
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: That was gonna be a low ball game. And if Lamar,
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: even even if Lamart finished that game, I still think
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: it would have covered that number, just the way the
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: game flow was going, how Denver's defense was playing that
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: offense in Baltimore. I know, you gotta he went out
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: early in the first, but it just felt like that
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: game where Denver was gonna stay and we were going
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: to cover that number. Same feeling here with the Chiefs team,
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: where I would love the bout back the Chiefs to
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: have a huge bounce back. I know historically my home's
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: absolutely dominated Denver, and like me and Chad, we bet
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: this spot many of times. Like I remember two years
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: ago we had Denver at home, uh with Withdrew Lock
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: eleven and a half in the contest. Yeah, it was
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: all working for us. They were moving the ball, I
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: think it was seven seven, he was driving the field,
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: Drew Lock ext sack. They took it the other way.
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: They scored I think the end of winning by twenty
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: one the chief So we've been burned many times That's
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: why I'm not even worried about this with Russe Wilson.
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: He can't be any worse than Drew lock was over
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: all the times we bet this spot. So I'm with
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: Chatt of sense that this is an inflated line. We're
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: getting two points of value just because everyone hates bending Denver.
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: No one bet them last week, me and chattered a
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: few people that actually won money on them last week.
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: You gotta roll it over a divisional game, a home
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: dog with a good defense. We have to do it.
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: It's another case of if you have to just hold
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: your nose and bet this, don't even watch it because
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: I turn it off because it was so damn painful
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: to watch that offense. Just trust the defense, trust the number.
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: This is a smart play to back Denver here. But
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: do you wait until it gets ten or do you
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: played at nine and a half? Um, you can like
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: I already took that and a half, Like with most
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: of my bets, I'm like you, I'm waiting for that number.
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: So yeah, if the ten pop, that's when I'll kind
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: of load on it. But I played the nine and
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: a half small just in case it does dropped eight
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: and a half because you're getting. You're getting a fair
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: numb year nine and a half. You are getting a
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: fair number. A couple of stats that Evan Abrahams are crack.
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: Researcher sent me about this game. Home dogs are of
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: seven or more since two thousand two, are six against
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: the spread in December or later. It moves up to
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: um the teams that had since again since two thousand two.
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: Oh no, since two thousand sixteen, teams with a winning
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: percentage of or more first teams with a loot with
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: a winning percentage of or less Chiefs versus Broncos. In
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: this case, it's about uh no point seventy one and
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: a hundred against the spread. I gotta do the math.
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: I'm with that percentages. Evan didn't give me that crib note.
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: But since same scenario, the teams with the better record
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: are against the spread. I jumbled at all, but basically
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: the same back the Broncos. Now here's the interesting one
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: about Mahomes. Everyone knows his career November December record five
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: straight up, eighteen and two against the spread. What that
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: tells me is that he is so good. As the
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: season goes on, bookmakers automatically inflate the line, so you're
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: getting the value. Then he's the teaser god, just throwing
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: every teaser. The guy always wins. So that's another interesting
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: part of this. Why is that nine and a half
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: because seven point teaser, that's two and a half. So
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: the books know what they're doing and hanging these big numbers.
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: Another quick short number thing you can look at is
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: favorites US seven or more points. This year, they were
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: seven and oh heading into last weekend. The only loss
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: was Houston, So that's one of those things where Houston
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: lost that game because they're absolutely terrible. Most of these
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: teams we've seen this year that have been big dogs,
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: they've played well. So another reason I love the Giants
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: at seven. It's another reason I love this this UH
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: Denver team. Two divisional teams at seven or more points
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: at home. It's just it's me and chat. We cannot
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: pass on these kind of opportunities to play these games, simon,
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: no joke. Sometimes I forget we're live on AM. Yeah,
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: this number has moved from nine and a half to nine. Yeah,
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: so that's that's the fear with it. So I would say,
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: don't wait for the ten. Just grabbed the nine and
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: a half. Just go get it. That's why I think
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: a Giants will move to It's just as pros can't
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: pass on these kind of big numbers and divisional games
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: in December. It's just really hard to pass on those numbers.
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: Oh that's amazing. Look at the influence we have. We're
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: crazy Panthers on the road four and a half point
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: dogs against the Seahawks. I don't know, man, but why
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: would anybody be favoring there's so much money coming in
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: in the pant there's right now, what's the theory here?
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: It's three and a half by the way, to take Seattle.
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: It's the twelve man verse, Sam Donald, like, I just
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: blindly take Seattle here. But man, there's there's so many
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: question marks for now Seattle's defense, they just don't look good.
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: These last couple of weeks they've been good. I mean
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: l A was moving the ball up and down the
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: field on them with backups in every position. So I
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: get the love for Carolina. I'm interesting with people's opinion
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: on on this game. It's another game I haven't met yet.
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: I wanted to take Seattle right when the game opened, um,
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: just because I knew the public would fade them after
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: such a bad showing against the Rams. But man, I
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: don't have to do with this one. Um, we can wait. Yeah,
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: I would wait on this because I to me, Seattle
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: feels like the really does feel like the smart side
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: where Carolina will be a public dog and people are
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: just not because again Caroline is a great defense. But
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: they're they're simply for getting. It's Sam Donald who struggled
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: his whole career on the road going up against that
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: twelve man, which is a big deal. So um, interesting
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: game to say the least. We've got four games right
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: now that we are full on consensus about that. We
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: no brainers, no brainers. The Niners are three and a
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: half point favorites on the road, I mean at home
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: against the Buccaneers. This is another pro Joel game. Bets
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: on the Buccaneers, money on the Niners. I like the
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: Niners here, I know, but I don't love the number.
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: The number worries me. And this number is gonna go. Yeah.
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: I like it at three and a half, but I'm
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: with you, I just have no real feel for it
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: because I feel like, what the hell is his name?
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: Rock Purity Listen shout out to the big bets on campus.
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: Podcast with Stucky and Colin Wilson, who for the entirety
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: of the Action Networks existence. Brock Purty basically was in
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: college and we would him. We would celebrate bro October
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: every fall because of brock Purty and what he did
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: at Iowa Stay. I feel super left out because I
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: had never heard of that guy, Mr Irrelevant. Maybe I
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: heard of him then, but when he came to that game, Chad,
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: I was like, holy sh it, like my biggest bed
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: of the day, and I was resting on a third stringer.
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: But luckily what we've been on played out of that
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: poor defense game after twa And that's why you kind
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: of backed his ports team. It's I didn't want to
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: be the one ship on Jimmy g It was just
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: more of me saying this guy is such a vessel.
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: People are giving him too much credit. Where I Phil
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: was Trey Lanston there and he had been learning this system.
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: I think we kind of had the same results we've
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: seen this year. It's it's kind of built around that
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: where they just have so many weapons. I you has
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: taken such a major step this year that um debot
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: is not that he's not irrelevant. He just isn't what
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: he was last year because you just kind of filled
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: that void of being a true and I'm one receiver,
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: KIDDI still makes huge plays When you throw McCaffrey in there.
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: It's just like, man, this guy's four major weapons that
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: he just needs to get the ball in their hands
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: and they can make place for him. That's crazy. People
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: are Ben Tampa here. Maybe they're betting it because of
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: what happened last night and they think they canna ride
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: the momentum. On paper, the difference between these two teams
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: is light years. So take the under if you don't
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: have to take a side. If you're like Chad, you
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: just don't like the number. But I will be back
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: on the four nineers again this week where Jimmy went out,
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: I moved it by half a point. That was all
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: Jimmy was worth in my model for this four nine team,
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: which I could be dead wrong because I have a
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: really small Sampa right now in this kid. But I
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: went back and I watched his Iowa state footage and
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: it's like, all right, this kid can move the ball.
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: You could really sling it like Rock October. Yeah, so
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: he's obviously he's good. I'm not a huge a fan
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: of his mechanics. Like watching him play, I saw why
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: he dropped so late. This kid as as an unorthodox release.
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: He's got weird when he throws. He is a set
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: right which he had plenty of balls he got away
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: with that really scared me. But he threw in the
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: tight windows. He made big play. So three and a half. Sure, Chat,
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: I'll back too. But I'm like you where it's like
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: I feel great about it, not really, because I really
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: know what I'm getting at this quarterback here. Guy, I'm
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: not lying. We wanted to take goodbye this week. We
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: feel better, Like I feel better about the games we're
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: talking about than just about any games we've talked about
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: all year. What the fuck why? I don't know. I
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: think you're just you're feeling good. You're in New York
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: City right at chat. You're just feeling good. I don't
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: think it's the games. Could be I love the vibes
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: are just really high right now for you. It could
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: be I'm thinking about Brock Purty Brock. It's like Brock December.
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: I love it. I love that. Like I obviously I
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: don't know much about college. I got other stuff going on.
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: I love that was like a thing for them. Uh
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: because he has a great name. Oh my god, are
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: you kidding me? Stucky and Colin brock Purty and uh
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: the uh and Greg Dortch, the guy in the Cardinals.
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: They are foundational in the history of the college coverage
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: shere at Action Network, Dolphins on the Road at the Chargers,
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: you were all over the Niners and the wise guys
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: were all over the Niners. That was our big sharp
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: calls last week, betting against the Dolphins um basically at
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: any price, and it was right where the Dolphins exposed.
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: What did we learn? What does this tell us about
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: the Chargers as home dogs? And I remind people we
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: hate the Chargers is favorites. We love the Chargers as underdogs. Yeah,
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: And that was another cool thing of like the fans
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: enjoyed the fact that they were on the three and
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: a half of the four Niners and it closed up
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: five by kickoff. So it's nice when you're on the
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: early line movement. The pros come in heavy over the weekend,
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: but I'll have the five and you're sitting there on
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: three and a half ticket But same game this week
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: of Chargers are not left for dead. But it feels
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: that way by people. People are just totally off of
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: this team. Now. They every week shoot themselves in the foot.
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: We've seen the head coach like terrible decisions, make weird decisions. Um,
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: they don't make the playoffs. He's definitely gonna be fired
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: in this matchup. Like I was gonna make this why
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: Simon says, But I think you can wait and you
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: can get it three and a half. This is a
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: Sunday night game. The public is gonna be all over
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: Miami in this matchup. They're going to bet this number.
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: They're gonna throw them in a lot of teasers, a
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: lot of parlays. This is just a classic bounceback spot
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: for this Miami team. My issue is is Miami that good?
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: We already talked about it last week. I didn't think
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: Miami is that good. They played a kind of a
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: soft schedule, had a nice little had a couple of
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: games where they're in good spots against teams. Had major
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: questions about their defense. Their defense has given up a
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: lot of yards and teams have moved the ball and
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: then pretty easily. Um. Even I went back a couple
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: of weeks ago, I watched rewatched that Bears game against
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: them where the Bear should have beat Miami at home. Um,
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: justin Fields just had a really bad pick at the
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: end of the game. Where that that's why they didn't
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: like they got away with one there and where people
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: be looking at them different if they had dropped one
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: or two of these games along the way here. So
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: looking at the matchup between a Chargers team in the
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: Miami team that, man, this this is going to come
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: down to the quarterbacks. I looked them getting the three
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: and a half. That's that's a great number to have
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: with Chargers team that plays games close. We've seen the
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: games they've lost this year. It's usually a coss a
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: close loss or where they win by a couple of points.
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: That's just kinda been the charge has been this year.
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: Mike Williams has a big deal if he's back this week.
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: We've seen the dbs and the cornerbacks really struggle with
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: this Miami team this year. That that was out of
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: this world. Will happened last week with the four nine
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: is the fact they brought in a third stringer, were
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: be able to move the ball up and down the
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: field in this Miami defense. When we flipped the other
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: side where Joey Bos is not gonna be back his
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: his week. His injury was eight to ten weeks. I
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: believe it happened the final week of September, so he
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: should have been back this week practicing. If everything I'd
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: go off perfectly, it hasn't. I checked the writers this morning.
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: There is no eight Uh. They gave an update on
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: Sunday after the game that they didn't think Bos was
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: gonna practice this week with the team. I haven't seen
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: that it is. Let's a big deal. But luckily we
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: still have Khalil mac which is a huge advantage to
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: have on the defensive line going against up going against
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: these backups that Miami's having him starting out these left
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: tackline right tackle positions. So I love, I love all
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: the different things coming together. Where Miami is a really
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: good team, they're missing key key pieces to that offense.
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: And if Waddle is injured as well, that's even bigger
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: for a reason to want to back the Chargers team
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: like that, that really gets things going. You have Waddle
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: entire killing the field together. So all the science point
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: taking the charges, and the biggest last one is going
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: to be I don't know what the numbers are yet Chad,
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: But the public is gonna do. But I guarantee the
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: public is going to be backing this Miami team. So
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: if you're looking at a book, you have a three.
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: Just wait, I do think about a three and a
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: half of the bets are on the Dolphins right now.
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: Of the money on the Dolphins right now. Yeah, right,
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: so another or another road favorite getting all the money
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: and all the tickets. Never good last game on the board.
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: Like I said, it's a short week. Atriot's one point
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: favorites at the Cardinals. I hate this game. I hate
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: these things. Uh, there's very little reason to talk about it.
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: It's not going to be in our contest. If we
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: were putting something in for their contest. No opinion, yeah,
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: no opinion. It's my guts telling me you take Arizona here.
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: But the thing because Kyler can run the ball we
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: already talked about. The Patriots have struggled this year now
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: and three again, tornning quarterbacks, they lost the fields, they
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: lost Lamar, and they lost to Josh Allen last week.
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: That clearly is a major problem. Their defense. I don't know,
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: it's because they have a QB spy. That's why it
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: doesn't work. Their zone or whatever it is. It's just
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: a running quarterback seems to give this Pelicheck defense problems.
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: So I wanted to take the Patriots come with Chad,
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: like I hate Arizona and I love Fading Kingsbury no
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: member in December, and then at home Arizona struggled mightily
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: at home. But man, the running quarterback thing that throws
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: me off a loop. So not gonna be one of
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: my five biggest bets. But in my pickpools and we'll
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: I'll probably end up betting in the end, it's gonna
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: be Arizona. Simon. Right now, Voxhall was Broncos plus nine
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: and a half. Simon says, Giants plus seven exact decision
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: Lions minus two and a half. Big balls were holding
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: off on. I got a feeling come Thursday when we reconvene,
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: Browns could be on our big balls list. Um Chargers, Chargers,
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: those are the and maybe the Jets, depending on what
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: kind of news we get. But to me, those are
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: the three leaders in the clubhouse for big balls. Right now,
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: Brown's plus six, Giants plus seven, Lions minus two and
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: a half. Denver plus nine forty nine minus three and
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: a half Chargers US three, But we want you to
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: wait on that. Those are the games that we've talked
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: about showing our cards on that we liked the most.
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: Shorter week shorter week only six six six byes this week. Yep,
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: and it's we might cha my d you might be
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: like convinced me to put it in because I do
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: really love the games you already talked about. But as
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: we sit here, we know we probably should use the
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: boy we're gonna talk about games like we always end
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: up loving the games we talked about. I know at
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: some point we got to use it, all right. This
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: has been the Favorites podcast from the Volume podcast Network.
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: I'm Chad Moment he is Simon Hunter. Download us from Apple,
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: podcasts from Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts, rate review, subscribe.
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: We was five stars. Stay whatever you want, feedback as
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: a gift, but listen all the way to the end.
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: That's how we stay in the rankings until next time.
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: I Love you,