Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - Inflation Shocks Markets: Act NOW! + Stock Market News 12 July 2024

Transcript

Felix Prehn - Inflation Shocks Markets: Act NOW! + Stock Market News 12 July 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:06
  Speaker 1: Alex here and welcome to this crazy pre-market live.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: Yesterday was a momentous day.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: $600 billion were lost in just the MAX 7 stocks, which is more than we've seen in quite some time.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: And should we dive into it?
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: See what happened today, what the big banks have just done, what inflation did out today is doing, and much, much more.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: So you're the best informed investor out there.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: I had to shed the jacket.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: It is just too warm in here.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: It's like a sauna.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Hence the slightly disheveled appearance, for which, of course, I apologize.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: Winston looks much, much smarter today, so let me share my screen with you here.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: Mac 7 erased a combined $600 billion yesterday.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: Is it the end of the world?
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: Should we be panicking?
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: Is it time to sell everything and, you know, throw out the kitchen sink?
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: Well, we haven't seen something like this in 48 days that they've all went down together.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: But even though big tech went down 3% to 4% yesterday, all of these stocks are still up in July.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: We're still up 1% to 5% in July.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: The Nasdaq's up 3% even after yesterday's dump.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: So I think we need to take a little bit of a chill pill here.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: What's that shirtless?
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: If you show up shirtless, then we panic.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: Yes, then you know it's all over.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: The midlife crisis has arrived properly.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: That's what happens when yes, that's what happens I shan't know anybody.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: All right, let's dive into it then.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: So just to visualize and you know I love my charts just to visualize how big of a dump yesterday was.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: We haven't had that kind of a move on the NASDAQ since 2020.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: And we had that in 2020, one, two, three, four times, almost five times actually.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: But, yeah, it's a big move.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: We should take it seriously and dive a little bit into that.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: One thing always to realize is you can make money in all markets, and we intend to.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: Right Yesterday, our small cap trades were making money.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: Some of our stocks are making money.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: Vix is starting to improve, so we can always make money if we understand how the market works.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: And if you want to learn how we made, so far this year, $16,000 on a $30,000 teaching portfolio it's intentionally small, which is, of course, 50% plus so far this year come and join us on Tuesday, wednesday, thursday next week for a three-day masterclass.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: We do an hour each day, 10 am Eastern time, I believe.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: 8 pm New York time.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: Is it?
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: Is it 8 pm New York time?
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: You'll see it on the sign up.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: I'm slightly confused on time zones at present and I'll walk you through exactly.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think 8 pm Eastern time is correct, definitely correct.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: Exactly how we do that, what trades to open, how to automate it, how to automate the profit taking and the risk management, and how the whole thing can be done by beginners.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: I assume zero knowledge over there, but come and join us.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: It's going to be fun.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: I guarantee he's in his boxers, dean.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: No, but shorts.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: I pretty much always wear shorts.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: I don't really wear trousers unless I go out somewhere.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: Phoenixfriendsorg slash masterclass is the link.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: So get yourself over there and grab yourself a seat, and I know people often say this we're going to get to capacity.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: We will actually get to capacity because the signups are crazy, which I love.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: I love that you guys want to learn.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: So this is the data out today, and then we're going to look at what happened to Tesla and our favorite stocks and everything else here.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: Just in a moment, elon lied yes, yes, yes, let's throw some things at Elon.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: Producer price inflation, that sexy metric that everybody talks about over breakfast at the kitchen table it's going up.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: So we've just had slightly higher than expected PPI.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: Producer price inflation out at 2.6%, which is higher than we thought it would be.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: And why is it going up?
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: It's service inflation, so services are getting more expensive.
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: Might have something to do with higher job costs, maybe General greediness desires to improve margins, and so on.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: So it's going up.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: Is it at an insane level?
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: No, not really, because look at where we are right now.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: Let me take a different color here.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: We're here, right, and can I get a straight line?
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: I think I can, and you can sort of see we're kind of in the normal-ish zone that we were in in 2017, 2018.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: No one was really screaming oh my God, inflation is high.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: Let's sell everything Plus.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: If you think this through, sell everything Plus.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: If you think this through, yesterday yesterday, you know all my troubles and so on we had low inflation, right?
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: So what happens?
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: Small caps at a party and big tech.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: Well, what happened?
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: The money just went from big techs to small caps.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: That's really what happened.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: So today we get slightly higher inflation.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: So what would you expect to happen?
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: Well, you might see a little bit of that money flowing back.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: That would be the logical conclusion, but the market isn't logical, so don't hold your breath on that.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: So don't hold your breath on that, guys.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: Masterclasses for beginners.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: We'll dive into some depth there, but I like to never assume any knowledge, because that's really where most people are right and it's kind of the fairest thing to do is to assume zero knowledge.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: So we're going to start from basics and then build our way up.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: All right, tesla, we can't look beyond it.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: Tesla, tesla, tesla.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: Let me show you the hideous chart here.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: This is pre-market, by the way, not looking too bad, but Tesla is still down.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: Meta is still down, but if you look at the Tesla chart, that was the candle from yesterday.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: Ouch, but you know what?
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: We're trading where we were trading on the 3rd of July, which is last Wednesday.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: So it's not like, oh my God, it really is over.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: Right, tesla's collapsed, but yes, it's back to 235, which is below where it was before the 4th of July.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: I remember that because I exited my leaps at about 238 and then missed out on a little bit of rally and was beating myself up violently every day.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: And no, it's all right.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: So what do you see on the beautiful market positioning chart here?
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: Let me get a pen Kingdom for a pen.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: Here we go.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: You see that little red line there.
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: I'm pointing towards that one there at 230.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: That's your support.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: So we have a $230 support line right now, and then resistance sits up there at 250.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: This is inside Trade Vision, by the way.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: If you haven't got a free account there yet, you're missing out.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: Or even the premium account over there, you're missing out and I'm going to probably announce it tomorrow.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: But our trend indicator has just gotten so freaking good.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: We're going to release that in the next couple of days.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: We've AI'd it so it learns.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: It gets better and better and better, and it's insane.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: The accuracy is really something I did not expect.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: So I'll be introducing that to you in a little while.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: So, kind of sitting in this range, I would hope that we stay above 230.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: That's basically what I want us to do, but if we don't, then, yeah, we could drop to 200.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: That would be the next support level there for Tesla.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: And why is that?
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: Because, well, elon the great has said that the Robotaxi unveiling will be pushed backwards from August to October, which seems like weeks away, months away.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: So, so far, what are we going to talk about all this time?
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: Tesla investors, yeah, does it really matter?
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: No, of course it bloody doesn't.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: And, as he says, I say last time, tesla's up 40% in the last three months.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly, why are people not taking profits?
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: I mean, I tell you I exited here, that's where Felix took profits, and you never aim to maximize profits.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: It doesn't work.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: Nobody does it, nobody makes it.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: Well, it's just hopeful and it's okay.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: We made money on the trade, we're happy, pocketed some money and then we move on.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: And then now I'm thinking there's a good opportunity to set up the same trade again.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: See where we bottom out.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, 8.4% lower on Thursday and we're down once again right now, as we're speaking to 235 below yesterday's closing, at about 240 in a bit.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: So yeah, tesla keeps, keeps dropping, um, like it's hot, but it doesn't really matter.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: And then here, uh, the people we care really, really strongly about I know you all worry about the bonuses of jp morgan invest in bankers.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: That's really what you, what you worry about, right, don't you get home and go?
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: Um, darling, aren't you worried that those JP Morgan bankers could be underpaid?
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: I mean, imagine if they're mis-earnings, it'd be terrible, terrible.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: I might have to cut back on the third house and the fourth mistress and the new yacht, you know.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: But don't worry, don't worry.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: Investing banking revenue is up 46% beating estimates.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: Trading revenue and IFFCC sales are up 4.6%, missing slightly, but not that much.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: They still made brought in 4.8 billion Equity sales and trading revenue almost 3 billion, 21% higher.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: And you know all the people who say, oh, you can't make money trading.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: Excuse me, did you see that?
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: Did you see that?
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: What?
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: 7.8 billion dollars in a quarter trading trading revenues?
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you can make money trading.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: I think it's safe to say so.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: You want to learn a little bit about how bankers do that, because that's who our, our head coaches all are.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: Invest in bankers.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: Come and join us on tuesday.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: Links down below felix, friends at all.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: Slash masterclass and then a bit of advisory um, that's also a beat.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: Equity underwriting that's a beat.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: Debt underwriting that's a beat.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: That's basically issuing, you know, ipos and tranches of equity and then, yeah, just a big, big and beautiful, basically.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: And compensation expenses are up 12.95 billion, which means they're paying the bankers more.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: 12.95 billion, which means they're paying the bankers more.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: Finally, more money for Wall Street bankers.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: I know, I know it's good, isn't it?
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: But no, it is a good thing for the economy, honestly, and for the market at least that these stocks are doing well.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: And if you guys were part of our small cap trade, whether it was IWM or IWO, look at that best day since 2020 yesterday.
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: So again, what do you want to do with that?
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: As last time says, profit taking right or at least trailing stop losses or something like that, you've got to make sure that your gains never become losers.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: Something green should never become red inside your trading portfolio.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: Okay, that's really really important.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: If you want to know how we do that again, I'll come through that next week.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: Do you always use stop loss with options?
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: No, not always.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: But I think if you are looking at a nice juicy green number, then, yeah, you should set some up.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: And I set some trading stop losses up yesterday because we were making money on things.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: So why would I want to let that go back to a red number, right Back to zero?
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: I'm actually okay with For me completely fine Trade does nothing, completely happy.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: But if it goes to zero, I'm losing money.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: Why would I want that?
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: If something is up $1,000, why would I want to let that go to minus something?
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: Why wouldn't I set a trading stop loss at $500?
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: Or even at zero?
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: It's also fine, you didn't lose a thing, and that way you can potentially collect some more money, right.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: But there is a warning.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: There is a warning.
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: Be warned, my friends.
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: What have we got coming up?
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: What is the big excitement of the next few weeks?
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: It is, of course, earnings season, which means all the big boys tell us how much money they made last quarter and this tells you the movement of those stocks from last bunch of quarters.
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: How many 10 or so and how much have the stocks moved?
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: And with the exception of Apple, which is a fairly boring stock, one reason I like to trade it Google, microsoft, amazon, meta move a lot, right, and if yesterday's madness has anything to guide, by a small miss could result in, you know, a 20% drop or something in a stock.
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: I would not be surprised if we see some of those crazy moves that we've been seeing in the big tech stocks.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: And how often are we higher after earnings?
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: For Google, four out of nine times.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: Microsoft, five out of nine times.
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: Amazon, five out of nine times.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: Five out of nine times.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: Not exactly great odds, right?
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: So don't bet on things rallying the day after earnings.
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: That's the way I would look at that.