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The Platner Plummet Strikes the Markets! · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:00
  Graham Plattner,
• 0:01
  fall down,
• 0:02
  go boom.
• 0:04
  Very sad story.
• 0:05
  We'll get into
• 0:06
  not only
• 0:07
  what happened with that and Graham Plattner dropping out,
• 0:11
  but also what comes next here.
• 0:12
  Are there opportunities for you on the prediction markets to maybe
• 0:16
  uh take advantage of a very wild and bizarre situation.
• 0:20
  We'll also go through a few more rules of the road,
• 0:22
  the predictable constitution.
• 0:24
  Going through a few more amendments today.
• 0:26
  There's a lot to look for here on today's program and
• 0:29
  we would love for you to join us every day.
• 0:31
  If you have a podcast,
• 0:33
  uh,
• 0:33
  you know,
• 0:33
  wherever you get your podcast,
• 0:34
  get to go there,
• 0:35
  get predictable with Stu
• 0:36
  or at predictable with Stu on YouTube.
• 0:39
  And of course,
• 0:39
  join us as well at predictableshow.com.
• 0:56
  So Graham Plattner in the most predictable thing ever
• 1:01
  is gone.
• 1:02
  Uh,
• 1:02
  a terrible,
• 1:03
  terrible candidate,
• 1:04
  not a good guy,
• 1:05
  and,
• 1:05
  and frankly,
• 1:06
  but you don't have to believe the allegations of rape
• 1:09
  against Graham Plattner to believe he's not a good guy.
• 1:12
  Uh,
• 1:12
  and the man had a Nazi tattoo,
• 1:14
  and that was,
• 1:14
  I think,
• 1:14
  pretty much proven he did know,
• 1:16
  uh,
• 1:16
  you know,
• 1:17
  according to messages sent by his girlfriends,
• 1:19
  uh,
• 1:20
  who he had a lot of,
• 1:21
  uh,
• 1:21
  frankly,
• 1:22
  uh,
• 1:22
  many,
• 1:23
  many,
• 1:23
  many girlfriends,
• 1:24
  uh,
• 1:24
  many,
• 1:24
  many girlfriends who now are complaining about
• 1:27
  the way,
• 1:28
  He was treating them and you know,
• 1:30
  it turns into an entire explosion when it comes to the campaign and this is why,
• 1:34
  this is why these things are risky to do.
• 1:37
  If you are a party
• 1:38
  and you're like,
• 1:39
  hey,
• 1:40
  what if we take that random guy no one's ever heard of and see what happens?
• 1:44
  Oh,
• 1:44
  a couple of crazy insane socialists recommended him.
• 1:48
  Let's give it a whirl.
• 1:50
  Not always the best way to go.
• 1:52
  We all,
• 1:52
  we love that.
• 1:53
  Look,
• 1:53
  we're Americans.
• 1:54
  We love the,
• 1:55
  the romanticism of the story of the regular person who just kind of steps
• 1:59
  into the role and takes on leadership and winds up changing the world.
• 2:02
  We really like that narrative,
• 2:04
  and that's,
• 2:04
  that's not exclusive to the left or the right,
• 2:06
  and we all kind of love that,
• 2:08
  you know,
• 2:08
  I,
• 2:08
  I think there is a part of,
• 2:10
  uh,
• 2:10
  uh,
• 2:10
  there's something that's different,
• 2:11
  I think about,
• 2:12
  uh,
• 2:12
  the American people as opposed to,
• 2:14
  you know,
• 2:14
  other
• 2:15
  nations that were built on.
• 2:17
  All sorts of,
• 2:18
  uh,
• 2:18
  you know,
• 2:19
  structures when it comes to monarchies and,
• 2:21
  and dictatorships and kings and queens and all those things.
• 2:25
  We don't like the person who seemingly had it handed to them,
• 2:30
  who
• 2:30
  who did this their entire life and were in the system.
• 2:33
  We like the person who comes out from the outside,
• 2:34
  and honestly,
• 2:35
  we do get good candidates
• 2:36
  who come out uh from that uh that path.
• 2:39
  It's just also risky,
• 2:41
  and the Democrats are finding out
• 2:42
  exactly
• 2:43
  how that feels.
• 2:44
  Graham Plattner is suspending his Senate bid in Maine after,
• 2:47
  uh,
• 2:49
  after rape accusation.
• 2:50
  You try to keep,
• 2:51
  this is one of the things that if you happen to be a politician,
• 2:53
  maybe you're younger,
• 2:54
  you're thinking to yourself,
• 2:55
  hey,
• 2:55
  I'd like to be a politician
• 2:57
  at some point in my life.
• 2:58
  Try to keep your picture
• 3:00
  out from under a headline that says the word rape.
• 3:07
  That's not in the predictable constitution,
• 3:10
  but it could be.
• 3:10
  It's a good rule of the road,
• 3:12
  I will say,
• 3:13
  um.
• 3:14
  And,
• 3:14
  you know,
• 3:15
  he,
• 3:15
  he,
• 3:15
  you know,
• 3:16
  look,
• 3:16
  Plattner's awful,
• 3:17
  and he,
• 3:17
  he,
• 3:18
  this was so,
• 3:19
  I mean,
• 3:19
  I know,
• 3:19
  I don't,
• 3:20
  I don't mean
• 3:21
  to do the thing
• 3:23
  where we're filming the movie Back to the Future and I keep saying Back to the Future.
• 3:27
  We're going back to the future.
• 3:28
  I,
• 3:28
  but this is predictable.
• 3:30
  This is what this is.
• 3:31
  Everybody could have seen this coming.
• 3:33
  Anybody who just didn't want to deny basic facts could have seen this coming,
• 3:37
  that eventually this would happen.
• 3:39
  Now.
• 3:39
  It was tough with prediction markets because,
• 3:42
  you know,
• 3:42
  there's a deadline of the 14th and honestly,
• 3:44
  I
• 3:45
  did not think,
• 3:46
  I,
• 3:46
  I,
• 3:46
  I did a,
• 3:47
  um,
• 3:47
  we do these social media
• 3:48
  videos where we answer your questions and one of them was,
• 3:50
  hey,
• 3:51
  you think that they're gonna find something else on
• 3:53
  Plattner and he's gonna drop out by the 14th?
• 3:55
  My answer was,
• 3:56
  no,
• 3:56
  I don't think that's gonna happen.
• 3:58
  Uh,
• 3:58
  so whoever that was,
• 4:00
  hopefully you didn't listen to me on that particular video,
• 4:03
  but I didn't think that was gonna happen because it
• 4:04
  doesn't seem like the Democrats care about it at all,
• 4:06
  and honestly,
• 4:07
  there isn't much evidence that the voters do.
• 4:10
  Uh,
• 4:10
  you know,
• 4:10
  they kind of,
• 4:11
  there was,
• 4:11
  it was getting closer between him and Collins,
• 4:13
  but there was still polling showing that he
• 4:15
  was leading Collins before this latest accusation.
• 4:18
  Now my guess is,
• 4:19
  uh,
• 4:19
  with all the people coming out and trashing him,
• 4:22
  that was going to go away eventually,
• 4:23
  and this is what the Democrats
• 4:24
  were thinking.
• 4:25
  Let me show you what the prediction markets looked like for
• 4:28
  will Graham Plattner drop out.
• 4:30
  This one now,
• 4:30
  of course,
• 4:32
  uh,
• 4:32
  I guess,
• 4:32
  I don't know if it's fully resolved because I
• 4:34
  don't know that he's officially filed the paperwork.
• 4:36
  He said in the video.
• 4:37
  I will be filing,
• 4:38
  I'll be filing paperwork,
• 4:40
  uh,
• 4:41
  to,
• 4:41
  to drop out of the race,
• 4:42
  but it's not because I did anything wrong.
• 4:44
  It's just because,
• 4:45
  uh,
• 4:46
  this makes a lot of sense,
• 4:47
  by the way,
• 4:47
  what I'm about to say.
• 4:48
  I didn't do anything wrong,
• 4:49
  but I'm dropping out.
• 4:51
  Why?
• 4:52
  Because they say they won't give me any money.
• 4:54
  Uh,
• 4:54
  so that,
• 4:55
  but I,
• 4:55
  I,
• 4:56
  I want you to know I'm a,
• 4:57
  I'm an everyday man.
• 4:58
  I'm an oysterman.
• 5:00
  Uh,
• 5:00
  I'm a harbor master,
• 5:02
  uh,
• 5:02
  and I'm just gonna go back to doing that after I've been accused of rape.
• 5:06
  That's my
• 5:06
  day.
• 5:07
  Hopefully you guys can come meet me there.
• 5:09
  I mean,
• 5:09
  it's a weird video.
• 5:11
  I gotta be honest with you,
• 5:12
  and I don't understand
• 5:13
  the whole thing with Plattner.
• 5:14
  Will he drop out?
• 5:15
  Well,
• 5:15
  you know,
• 5:16
  I went back and forth.
• 5:16
  I,
• 5:16
  I didn't do great on this market,
• 5:17
  to be honest with you.
• 5:18
  I,
• 5:18
  I did see some of you in the comments who did pretty well.
• 5:21
  I had a position on him dropping out by the 14th,
• 5:23
  that was pretty small.
• 5:24
  Had a couple of other positions,
• 5:26
  uh,
• 5:26
  where he would not drop out by,
• 5:28
  I think the,
• 5:29
  8th and the 10th or something.
• 5:30
  I can't remember exactly how I played it.
• 5:32
  I'll tell you how I played it was wrong,
• 5:34
  uh,
• 5:34
  because he dropped out before
• 5:35
  I,
• 5:36
  uh,
• 5:36
  I,
• 5:36
  you know,
• 5:36
  I wound up losing a couple.
• 5:37
  I,
• 5:38
  I wound up losing,
• 5:38
  I think 2 out of 3 positions,
• 5:39
  so I'll be down a little bit.
• 5:40
  I'm not worried about it in very small positions cause
• 5:42
  I really didn't have a great vibe on it.
• 5:44
  I should have listened to my own con uh predictable constitution.
• 5:47
  Which says
• 5:48
  it's OK
• 5:49
  to stay away.
• 5:50
  I don't remember what number of amendment that is because
• 5:51
  I don't have the list in front of me,
• 5:52
  but
• 5:53
  it's on there
• 5:54
  and it is OK even when you're like,
• 5:56
  gosh,
• 5:56
  this is a big market,
• 5:57
  everyone's talking about it.
• 5:58
  I could have just stayed away and saved my few dollars,
• 6:01
  but I did not.
• 6:02
  Uh,
• 6:02
  so that's the way that worked.
• 6:04
  Again,
• 6:04
  I'm not saying
• 6:05
  I'm like the US government.
• 6:06
  I read the Constitution all the time.
• 6:08
  I just try to occasionally look at it,
• 6:10
  uh,
• 6:11
  and,
• 6:11
  and,
• 6:11
  and for me at least,
• 6:12
  I try to keep myself in line with it.
• 6:14
  Uh,
• 6:14
  the US government just ignores it,
• 6:16
  so that's a whole different situation.
• 6:17
  OK.
• 6:18
  Um,
• 6:18
  so you think you have this big part.
• 6:20
  He's,
• 6:20
  he's,
• 6:20
  this is a guy who's had multiple
• 6:22
  huge profiles in all the mainstream media.
• 6:24
  He's the most popular Democrat in the universe,
• 6:26
  Graham Plattner.
• 6:27
  Gosh,
• 6:28
  there's gonna be terrible things that happen to
• 6:29
  the Democratic Party if this guy drops out.
• 6:32
  Who will win?
• 6:33
  The Maine Senate
• 6:34
  by party?
• 6:35
  What happened when he dropped out and all these scandals hit?
• 6:38
  Uh,
• 6:38
  this is what the graph looks like,
• 6:39
  um.
• 6:41
  It is,
• 6:41
  uh,
• 6:42
  will,
• 6:43
  uh,
• 6:43
  will,
• 6:44
  uh,
• 6:44
  the Republicans or Democrats win in the Senate?
• 6:47
  What's funny is
• 6:48
  when
• 6:49
  he,
• 6:49
  when the scandal breaks,
• 6:51
  you see that in between July 1st and 9th,
• 6:53
  uh,
• 6:54
  the Democrats' chances go up.
• 6:56
  It was about a 50/50 race.
• 6:58
  Until that scandal broke and they realized,
• 7:00
  holy crap,
• 7:00
  we might actually get rid of this guy,
• 7:02
  and now they have a 62% chance to win
• 7:05
  and Republicans have a 38%
• 7:07
  chance to win.
• 7:08
  I,
• 7:08
  my instinct on this market,
• 7:10
  and I said this during the live stream,
• 7:11
  by the way,
• 7:11
  we went live on YouTube
• 7:12
  at predictable show when this broke and we did like a half an hour of analysis.
• 7:16
  I would love for you to be over there
• 7:17
  at YouTube,
• 7:18
  uh,
• 7:18
  youtube.com/atpredictableshow.
• 7:20
  If you go there,
• 7:21
  you sign up,
• 7:22
  click the bell for notifications,
• 7:23
  I will say.
• 7:24
  I wouldn't say do that for every page you follow.
• 7:27
  Uh,
• 7:27
  I,
• 7:27
  I'm special,
• 7:29
  OK?
• 7:29
  I'm different.
• 7:30
  I'm special.
• 7:31
  I want you to click the bell for notifications there because we go live a lot
• 7:34
  and,
• 7:34
  uh,
• 7:34
  when we do go live with these things breaking,
• 7:37
  especially if you're following these markets,
• 7:39
  you wanna be subscribed in a way that's gonna notify you because if that happens,
• 7:43
  you won't be getting information that's going to help you,
• 7:45
  uh,
• 7:46
  in a position that you have or one that you can get into
• 7:49
  to hopefully profit.
• 7:50
  So,
• 7:51
  uh,
• 7:51
  check that out at youtube.com/atpredictableshow.
• 7:54
  My,
• 7:55
  my instinct on that market,
• 7:56
  by the way,
• 7:56
  is that we're gonna see
• 7:58
  a lot of optimism
• 7:59
  here leading into this race,
• 8:01
  uh,
• 8:01
  as they try to pick
• 8:03
  a candidate.
• 8:04
  We'll,
• 8:04
  we'll walk you through how they're going to do that,
• 8:06
  uh,
• 8:06
  in just a second,
• 8:07
  um,
• 8:08
  but,
• 8:08
  uh,
• 8:09
  just so you're aware.
• 8:11
  I think there's a good chance that Collins once again bounces up,
• 8:14
  and by the time this election happens,
• 8:16
  I,
• 8:16
  I feel like she'll be closer to 50.
• 8:18
  Maybe who knows what happens?
• 8:19
  It depends on who they pick.
• 8:20
  We don't know that.
• 8:21
  But right now we're in that,
• 8:22
  that generic Democrat optimism
• 8:24
  period where,
• 8:25
  my gosh,
• 8:26
  it could be anybody.
• 8:27
  And so 38% seems really low for Susan Collins,
• 8:30
  a candidate
• 8:31
  who
• 8:31
  isn't a,
• 8:32
  you know,
• 8:33
  Republicans are not necessarily all that popular in Maine,
• 8:35
  and this is gonna be a tough year for Republicans,
• 8:38
  but
• 8:39
  You know,
• 8:39
  she has survived these things before,
• 8:40
  so 38's pretty low,
• 8:43
  uh,
• 8:43
  especially when you don't even have a candidate.
• 8:44
  But anyway,
• 8:45
  Maine Democrats are set to,
• 8:46
  uh,
• 8:47
  have a convention to replace
• 8:48
  accused,
• 8:50
  again,
• 8:50
  keep your picture out from under headlines that have rape or rapist in them.
• 8:55
  It's just a,
• 8:55
  it's a handy dandy tip to any politician thinking about getting started
• 8:59
  in the business.
• 9:00
  Uh,
• 9:00
  Maine Democrats set convention.
• 9:02
  Uh,
• 9:02
  to replace,
• 9:03
  uh,
• 9:03
  Graham Plattner,
• 9:04
  accused rapist
• 9:06
  in Senate race,
• 9:07
  as two more candidates say they want,
• 9:08
  and actually there's a lot of candidates that say they want to go in.
• 9:10
  Just to quickly give you an outline as to the timeline of this.
• 9:13
  So
• 9:14
  Plattner has to actually file this paperwork and
• 9:16
  get himself off the ballot by the 14th.
• 9:18
  He,
• 9:19
  there are,
• 9:20
  there's talk
• 9:21
  about how he is still
• 9:23
  sort of trying to influence this process
• 9:25
  and to uh
• 9:27
  throw his weight around behind the scenes.
• 9:29
  What's fascinating about that is,
• 9:31
  uh,
• 9:32
  he's got till July 14 July 14th,
• 9:34
  which is about a week,
• 9:35
  what is it,
• 9:35
  the 9th today?
• 9:36
  Um,
• 9:37
  so
• 9:37
  he has time,
• 9:38
  uh,
• 9:39
  he,
• 9:39
  you know,
• 9:39
  to do this.
• 9:40
  If he doesn't file that paperwork,
• 9:42
  he's holding them hostage.
• 9:43
  And,
• 9:44
  at some point,
• 9:44
  you'd think he'd understand he has that power right now.
• 9:47
  He does not,
• 9:47
  he is not,
• 9:48
  as far as I know,
• 9:49
  at least as of this taping,
• 9:50
  filed the actual paperwork.
• 9:52
  And until he does that,
• 9:53
  he could sit here and tell them
• 9:54
  whatever he wants,
• 9:55
  and then he could just stay in the race if he wanted.
• 9:57
  They can't really do anything about it.
• 9:59
  Uh,
• 9:59
  he won the primary.
• 10:00
  Uh,
• 10:01
  so we will see if there's any last-minute change on that.
• 10:03
  I,
• 10:03
  I don't expect that there will be,
• 10:06
  uh,
• 10:06
  since he dropped out yesterday,
• 10:07
  and he said stuff.
• 10:08
  It was a weird statement.
• 10:09
  He said,
• 10:10
  uh,
• 10:10
  you know,
• 10:11
  there,
• 10:11
  there's never been,
• 10:12
  he,
• 10:13
  he basically went after the Democrats,
• 10:15
  and he,
• 10:16
  he was like,
• 10:16
  yeah,
• 10:17
  yeah,
• 10:17
  they're,
• 10:17
  they're telling me I can't have any money
• 10:20
  and they're not gonna give me access to voter data.
• 10:23
  Now,
• 10:24
  again,
• 10:24
  anyone with a half of a brain on their head knows
• 10:27
  that at the end of the day,
• 10:28
  they're gonna give you access to voter data because they want you to win.
• 10:30
  You know,
• 10:31
  if you were to hold on to this,
• 10:32
  they're gonna give you that access.
• 10:33
  Now money is another story.
• 10:34
  If they think they're wasting their money,
• 10:35
  they're not gonna give it to you.
• 10:36
  If it's a close race
• 10:38
  and you stay in the race,
• 10:39
  they're gonna give you the money.
• 10:40
  This is what's gonna happen.
• 10:41
  These people have no souls.
• 10:43
  And,
• 10:43
  and I,
• 10:44
  I mean that anybody in politics,
• 10:45
  there's basic,
• 10:46
  there's like 3 souls in politics and like 12 politicians split them,
• 10:50
  uh,
• 10:50
  and that's about it.
• 10:52
  So they,
• 10:53
  they do not care about these accusations.
• 10:55
  They do not care about these women.
• 10:57
  That's all nonsense.
• 10:59
  None of them care
• 11:00
  at all.
• 11:01
  They all could have bailed on Plattner two weeks ago.
• 11:04
  They decided not to.
• 11:05
  They heard about these abuse allegations.
• 11:07
  They could have bailed on him when they came out.
• 11:09
  They could have bailed on him when they,
• 11:11
  when they found out the man had a tattoo
• 11:13
  of a Nazi symbol on his chest.
• 11:15
  They could have bailed on him after all the Reddit comments.
• 11:17
  They didn't care about
• 11:19
  any of it.
• 11:21
  Any of it
• 11:22
  So that you think that they care about this,
• 11:24
  this new woman who's not even a new woman,
• 11:26
  by the way,
• 11:27
  was in the the previous stories
• 11:29
  about this,
• 11:30
  just who's escalated her accusation.
• 11:32
  They don't care at all.
• 11:34
  And the second thing,
• 11:35
  if you got to October,
• 11:37
  and they were sitting there and gosh,
• 11:38
  it's a 3-point race between Collins and Plattner,
• 11:40
  you don't think they'd be throwing money at that race?
• 11:42
  There'd be a new magical super PAC
• 11:45
  that you wouldn't know who started it that came
• 11:46
  up and was throwing money at that race.
• 11:48
  That is what would happen.
• 11:50
  Uh,
• 11:50
  Plattner,
• 11:50
  uh,
• 11:50
  you know,
• 11:51
  look,
• 11:51
  I don't,
• 11:51
  he doesn't seem like a very smart guy,
• 11:53
  and,
• 11:53
  you know,
• 11:54
  this is his first time in politics,
• 11:55
  maybe he doesn't realize this.
• 11:56
  But the bottom line is if he makes it past July 14th,
• 11:59
  they're gonna throw money at him.
• 12:01
  Uh,
• 12:01
  I don't,
• 12:02
  maybe I'm just saying this because I,
• 12:03
  I still have a,
• 12:05
  a position on him,
• 12:06
  uh,
• 12:06
  not dropping out,
• 12:07
  uh,
• 12:07
  the next couple of days.
• 12:08
  I don't know.
• 12:08
  We will see.
• 12:09
  Uh,
• 12:10
  anyway,
• 12:10
  so,
• 12:10
  um,
• 12:13
  It's a fascinating story.
• 12:14
  Uh,
• 12:14
  he also said,
• 12:15
  oh,
• 12:16
  I just want to say that the Democratic Party,
• 12:18
  uh,
• 12:19
  uh,
• 12:19
  they,
• 12:19
  they,
• 12:20
  they're screwing me over.
• 12:21
  And he didn't exactly say that,
• 12:22
  but he said something like that.
• 12:23
  And then he said,
• 12:23
  and,
• 12:23
  uh,
• 12:24
  I want to say this is the most entrenched political system
• 12:27
  in global history.
• 12:29
  Really?
• 12:30
  Uh,
• 12:30
  there,
• 12:30
  there are,
• 12:31
  uh,
• 12:32
  you know,
• 12:32
  thousands of years
• 12:34
  of kings tied to one another
• 12:37
  that go on through human history.
• 12:38
  There are dictators that hold jobs for 10 for 100 years.
• 12:42
  There,
• 12:42
  there are,
• 12:43
  there are countries where they give the leadership of
• 12:45
  the country to like a 12 year old,
• 12:47
  so that they can just like,
• 12:49
  because their dad died.
• 12:50
  Oh,
• 12:50
  but this is the most entrenched?
• 12:52
  Really?
• 12:52
  Is it the main Democrat Party?
• 12:54
  Is it Graham?
• 12:56
  I mean,
• 12:56
  I,
• 12:56
  I'm sorry,
• 12:57
  this has nothing to do with prediction markets,
• 12:58
  but I'm just,
• 12:58
  I can't help myself.
• 12:59
  It's just so pathetically stupid.
• 13:02
  OK,
• 13:02
  so who's coming next?
• 13:04
  And can you make money on it?
• 13:06
  That's the next question.
• 13:07
  These 12 Democrats could replace Graham Plattner.
• 13:09
  Let me go through some of the secondary people real quick.
• 13:12
  Uh,
• 13:13
  and I'll,
• 13:13
  and then I'll get to the main,
• 13:14
  the main attractions.
• 13:15
  Patrick Dempsey was one I talked about the other day.
• 13:18
  Uh,
• 13:18
  there was rumor
• 13:20
  that he might jump into this race.
• 13:21
  Frankly,
• 13:22
  if he did.
• 13:23
  And he just didn't talk
• 13:25
  for several months.
• 13:25
  He'd probably win this race.
• 13:27
  Uh,
• 13:27
  he has said though,
• 13:28
  he is not going to jump into the race.
• 13:30
  Uh,
• 13:30
  so Patrick Dempsey's out.
• 13:32
  Jarred Golden's another guy,
• 13:33
  kind of like more moderate.
• 13:34
  I don't think there's any chance of him doing it.
• 13:36
  He got out,
• 13:36
  he said he wanted to get out of politics,
• 13:38
  so he's out.
• 13:39
  Aaron Frey is another one.
• 13:40
  He hasn't been talked about much,
• 13:41
  uh,
• 13:42
  does have,
• 13:42
  there's some possibilities there.
• 13:44
  Um,
• 13:45
  so he'd be one,
• 13:46
  and we'll look at the,
• 13:47
  the markets here in a second that you want to see,
• 13:49
  maybe a real long shot.
• 13:50
  Um,
• 13:51
  Sarah Gideon,
• 13:51
  she already ran a while ago.
• 13:53
  Again,
• 13:53
  another one potentially could jump into the race.
• 13:56
  Um,
• 13:56
  Dan Cleburn is a guy who,
• 13:58
  um,
• 13:59
  he
• 14:00
  runs a,
• 14:01
  a beer company basically and was,
• 14:03
  I think,
• 14:03
  already in the race or was about to get into the race.
• 14:06
  Um,
• 14:06
  and then he wound up dropping out because he,
• 14:08
  he was more of a Plattner guy.
• 14:10
  But I cannot imagine
• 14:12
  the Democrats in Maine are going to take the exact same profile.
• 14:15
  Let's take another guy we don't really,
• 14:16
  we're not really familiar with and has no experience in politics right now.
• 14:19
  I,
• 14:19
  I,
• 14:19
  I don't,
• 14:20
  I don't know.
• 14:20
  I don't see that one happening.
• 14:21
  Janet Mills,
• 14:22
  I don't see that one happening either.
• 14:23
  She got soundly defeated in this race already.
• 14:26
  Uh,
• 14:26
  does not seem
• 14:27
  like that.
• 14:28
  Again,
• 14:28
  this would.
• 14:29
  It doesn't make a lot of sense
• 14:31
  because she was defeated.
• 14:33
  She's a safer
• 14:34
  choice in a way.
• 14:34
  She's still kind of a popular governor in the state.
• 14:37
  And the other thing about her,
• 14:38
  and the big problem with her is she's 78 years old,
• 14:40
  and one of the things that you want to do
• 14:42
  if you're going up against Collins,
• 14:44
  the main problem people in the state have with her,
• 14:47
  you know,
• 14:47
  they don't like that she's a Republican,
• 14:48
  they're not fans of it,
• 14:49
  but they do see that she's much more independent
• 14:52
  than anything else.
• 14:53
  Problem is she's,
• 14:53
  you know,
• 14:53
  very,
• 14:54
  very old.
• 14:54
  You're coming off of this Biden election where Democrats really wanted.
• 14:57
  Uh,
• 14:57
  you know,
• 14:58
  really saw a huge mistake made by their party.
• 15:01
  Uh,
• 15:01
  and,
• 15:01
  uh,
• 15:02
  with Joe Biden,
• 15:03
  and I don't know,
• 15:03
  putting a 78-year-old in there is certainly a risky proposition.
• 15:07
  I don't think that's going to happen.
• 15:08
  Um,
• 15:09
  a couple of other,
• 15:11
  uh,
• 15:11
  Jordan Wood,
• 15:12
  I like this one.
• 15:13
  Jordan Wood
• 15:14
  is a past staffer of former Representative Katie Porter of California.
• 15:19
  The only reason I bring him up,
• 15:20
  he's 36 years old.
• 15:22
  It would be an interesting play in that you'd go
• 15:24
  from an actual abuser to someone who's likely been abused.
• 15:28
  If he worked for Katie Porter,
• 15:30
  I mean,
• 15:31
  he had to dig a couple of backhands to the side of the skull,
• 15:33
  right?
• 15:33
  I mean,
• 15:33
  that just has to be,
• 15:34
  it's part of the profile of working for Katie Porter,
• 15:36
  allegedly.
• 15:37
  OK,
• 15:37
  so,
• 15:38
  uh,
• 15:38
  all that being said,
• 15:39
  let me give you a couple of the big ones.
• 15:40
  Uh,
• 15:40
  do we have the market
• 15:41
  for this,
• 15:42
  uh,
• 15:42
  main Senate winner person?
• 15:44
  OK,
• 15:44
  so this is what this looks like right now.
• 15:46
  Susan Collins is 39% to win.
• 15:49
  Obviously,
• 15:50
  you know,
• 15:50
  she's the Republican,
• 15:51
  she's got the nomination.
• 15:52
  The rest of this is all Democrats,
• 15:53
  and I,
• 15:54
  it's an interesting batch here.
• 15:56
  Troy Jackson is at 37%.
• 15:59
  Uh,
• 15:59
  Shenna Bellows is at
• 16:01
  16%.
• 16:02
  Can we scroll down to the names down here,
• 16:04
  uh,
• 16:04
  Adam,
• 16:05
  uh,
• 16:06
  and expand that?
• 16:06
  OK.
• 16:07
  And,
• 16:07
  and these,
• 16:07
  so let me give you the,
• 16:08
  the top three here.
• 16:09
  These are the three
• 16:10
  like Cleveland,
• 16:10
  I just don't see it happening.
• 16:12
  Um,
• 16:13
  I,
• 16:13
  uh,
• 16:14
  this Valley Geiger person I've seen thrown around,
• 16:16
  she has the exact crazy eyes I'd expect in this race.
• 16:19
  I don't know,
• 16:19
  there's something about her.
• 16:21
  Again,
• 16:21
  it's not very nice,
• 16:22
  but it,
• 16:23
  I just saw that picture and I was like,
• 16:24
  huh,
• 16:24
  I don't know.
• 16:25
  It doesn't seem like it.
• 16:26
  Uh,
• 16:27
  and then,
• 16:27
  OK,
• 16:28
  so go back up to the top here.
• 16:29
  So we've got,
• 16:30
  uh,
• 16:31
  sorry,
• 16:31
  the names.
• 16:31
  Uh,
• 16:32
  we have,
• 16:32
  uh,
• 16:32
  number one is,
• 16:33
  uh,
• 16:33
  is Susan Collins,
• 16:34
  of course,
• 16:34
  uh,
• 16:35
  but,
• 16:35
  uh,
• 16:35
  2 is Troy Jackson.
• 16:36
  So Jackson is
• 16:38
  the most likely,
• 16:41
  or most
• 16:42
  like politically,
• 16:43
  ideologically
• 16:45
  to Graham Plattner.
• 16:46
  So,
• 16:47
  uh,
• 16:48
  You have a situation there
• 16:50
  with Jackson,
• 16:52
  where if you just wanted to slot in someone with basically the same policies
• 16:55
  and sort of the same,
• 16:57
  uh,
• 16:57
  not outsider profile because he's been in government,
• 16:59
  he's a little bit more known in the state,
• 17:01
  which I would think that's something that Maine is looking for right now.
• 17:04
  But if you wanted to say,
• 17:04
  hey,
• 17:05
  we need to take someone a little bit more responsible,
• 17:07
  someone we don't think necessarily has raped anybody recently.
• 17:11
  Um,
• 17:11
  and,
• 17:12
  and somebody who has the same sort of socialist profile
• 17:16
  as Graham Plattner,
• 17:17
  you slot in Troy Jackson.
• 17:19
  Jackson did run in the,
• 17:20
  I think that,
• 17:21
  yeah,
• 17:21
  the gubernatorial race this year.
• 17:22
  I think he finished 3rd,
• 17:24
  if I remember correctly.
• 17:26
  Again,
• 17:27
  they have the,
• 17:27
  um,
• 17:28
  uh,
• 17:29
  the ranked choice voting there,
• 17:30
  so it's a little bit complicated.
• 17:32
  And I had a lot of numbers in my head as I was preparing
• 17:35
  for,
• 17:36
  for all of this today.
• 17:37
  Uh,
• 17:37
  but so Troy Jackson,
• 17:38
  I think,
• 17:38
  finished 3rd,
• 17:39
  uh,
• 17:39
  in that race,
• 17:40
  and he wound up,
• 17:41
  uh,
• 17:41
  endorsing
• 17:43
  the woman who won the gubernatorial race.
• 17:46
  So you have kind of like that real far left wing profile,
• 17:49
  uh,
• 17:50
  you could slot that person in right away.
• 17:53
  Is that the right move?
• 17:55
  I mean,
• 17:55
  you know,
• 17:56
  the question with Plattner is not necessarily,
• 17:58
  were,
• 17:59
  were,
• 17:59
  were,
• 17:59
  did everybody in Maine turn into a socialist.
• 18:01
  The question with Plattner is,
• 18:02
  did they just want an outsider?
• 18:04
  And I think there's a good chance the answer to that is yes.
• 18:07
  Um,
• 18:07
  so I don't know that Troy Jackson fits into that.
• 18:09
  Again,
• 18:10
  he already lost a race this year.
• 18:12
  Then you have,
• 18:13
  uh,
• 18:13
  go back to the list here,
• 18:14
  uh,
• 18:14
  Nurav Shah,
• 18:16
  he is,
• 18:16
  you see him in fourth place here
• 18:18
  or third among the Democrats,
• 18:19
  7.1% chance.
• 18:21
  He was the guy,
• 18:21
  he ran the COVID response.
• 18:23
  Again,
• 18:23
  I can't believe there's candidates who ran
• 18:25
  the COVID response that are running for anything
• 18:27
  in these states,
• 18:27
  but he ran the COVID response for the state was a
• 18:29
  guy like the Andrew Cuomo guy doing all the press conferences.
• 18:32
  He's sort of the Fauci of the state though.
• 18:34
  Um,
• 18:34
  he did all that.
• 18:36
  He,
• 18:36
  uh,
• 18:37
  also ran for governor.
• 18:39
  He actually finished
• 18:40
  first
• 18:41
  in the,
• 18:42
  in the first round.
• 18:43
  So if you ran,
• 18:43
  if this was a normal election
• 18:45
  for governor,
• 18:46
  he actually won.
• 18:47
  He beat the woman who actually finished,
• 18:49
  um,
• 18:49
  in 1st later on after the ranked choice voting
• 18:52
  came out.
• 18:52
  I think he had 27% of the vote.
• 18:54
  So he kind of came in first.
• 18:55
  He was seen,
• 18:56
  he's probably the more establishment side of this field.
• 19:00
  This is a bad bench,
• 19:01
  by the way.
• 19:02
  These are not good candidates.
• 19:04
  I gotta be honest with you.
• 19:05
  This is,
• 19:06
  there's a,
• 19:06
  there's an asterisk around it.
• 19:07
  There's nobody obvious here,
• 19:08
  OK?
• 19:09
  Shaw,
• 19:10
  uh,
• 19:10
  was a guy who ran the COVID response,
• 19:13
  uh,
• 19:13
  wound up being,
• 19:14
  um,
• 19:15
  uh,
• 19:15
  finishing first in that first round.
• 19:17
  So if this was a normal election,
• 19:18
  he would have been the gubernatorial nominee,
• 19:20
  uh,
• 19:20
  for the Democrats and,
• 19:21
  and,
• 19:22
  you know,
• 19:22
  likely win in a,
• 19:23
  in a bluish leaning state.
• 19:24
  Uh,
• 19:25
  then he wound up losing after
• 19:26
  Troy Jackson,
• 19:28
  the other guy we just talked about,
• 19:29
  uh,
• 19:30
  wound up kind of cross-endorsing with the woman who actually won.
• 19:34
  So,
• 19:34
  he's there,
• 19:35
  but he's like the establishment side.
• 19:36
  So you have.
• 19:38
  You've got the very liberal side in Jackson,
• 19:40
  you got the more establishment side in Shaw.
• 19:42
  Again,
• 19:42
  both of these people are very,
• 19:43
  very liberal.
• 19:44
  Uh,
• 19:45
  so your third candidate here,
• 19:46
  and I think on paper,
• 19:47
  this would be the way you would go,
• 19:49
  which is Shenna Bellows.
• 19:51
  Now let me give you the case for Shenna Bellows before I give you the,
• 19:54
  uh,
• 19:54
  several asterisks around this particular candidacy.
• 19:58
  Bellows,
• 19:58
  and he,
• 19:58
  I keep the picture up for a second.
• 20:00
  Here's,
• 20:00
  here's number 1 point for her.
• 20:02
  She looks like a normal person.
• 20:05
  That is,
• 20:05
  that is like maybe her best
• 20:07
  attribute.
• 20:08
  She looks like a normal person.
• 20:10
  She seems to,
• 20:11
  uh,
• 20:12
  come off as a normal person.
• 20:14
  Now,
• 20:15
  uh,
• 20:15
  that she also comes kind of in between Jackson and Shaw.
• 20:19
  Shaw being the more establishment person,
• 20:21
  Bellows being someone who's known in the state as a real progressive,
• 20:25
  like is a a left winger,
• 20:27
  uh,
• 20:27
  but,
• 20:27
  um,
• 20:28
  has,
• 20:29
  has over the past few years,
• 20:30
  she's been Secretary of State
• 20:32
  there,
• 20:32
  so she has this sort of like,
• 20:34
  I have some experience profile,
• 20:35
  she's not just coming out of nowhere,
• 20:37
  the state knows her.
• 20:40
  Those are the positives.
• 20:41
  Now let me give you the second,
• 20:42
  the negative here on uh on Bellows.
• 20:44
  She already got her ass handed to her by Susan Collins in a previous election.
• 20:50
  Now,
• 20:50
  there's asterisk on that as well.
• 20:52
  It was 2014,
• 20:53
  really good year for Republicans,
• 20:54
  but I mean,
• 20:55
  Collins wiped the floor with her,
• 20:58
  OK?
• 20:58
  Uh,
• 20:59
  and I think it was like 1968-31 or something.
• 21:02
  It was a blowout.
• 21:03
  That being said,
• 21:04
  it was a,
• 21:04
  it was,
• 21:05
  uh,
• 21:05
  in 2014,
• 21:06
  so 12 years ago.
• 21:08
  She's at the time in her late thirties,
• 21:09
  so no one knows who she is,
• 21:11
  she's an up and coming candidate.
• 21:13
  They kind of ran her as the fresh face,
• 21:14
  didn't work out.
• 21:15
  Uh,
• 21:16
  at that point too,
• 21:17
  Collins,
• 21:18
  who is now in her,
• 21:18
  I think,
• 21:19
  late 70s,
• 21:20
  was in her 60s,
• 21:22
  right?
• 21:22
  So not seen as,
• 21:24
  as a really old candidate at that time.
• 21:26
  So
• 21:27
  now you'd have a matchup with Collins,
• 21:29
  who's much on the older side
• 21:31
  against her,
• 21:32
  who she's now in her early 50s,
• 21:33
  maybe prime time for a younger senator.
• 21:36
  Um,
• 21:37
  so there's an argument there.
• 21:39
  She also kind of went through this road where she was seen at the time in 2014,
• 21:44
  as a bonkers liberal.
• 21:46
  I mean,
• 21:46
  like,
• 21:46
  I,
• 21:47
  she was seen as an extremist in 2014,
• 21:50
  and that's because the party.
• 21:52
  On the left,
• 21:53
  the Democrats had not moved
• 21:55
  to where they are now,
• 21:56
  to where AOC is like a normal Democrat,
• 21:59
  right?
• 21:59
  Like,
• 22:00
  this party has moved so dramatically
• 22:02
  that Bellows has gone from the far left of this party in 2014
• 22:07
  to now kind of in the middle of it.
• 22:09
  And so there's an argument to be made.
• 22:11
  Another asterisk and problem with her candidacy,
• 22:14
  however,
• 22:14
  is that she tried to run
• 22:16
  for governor this time
• 22:18
  and again got wiped out.
• 22:19
  I think she finished 4th.
• 22:21
  So,
• 22:22
  it just doesn't seem like the people of Maine like her all that much.
• 22:25
  That being said,
• 22:27
  if
• 22:28
  we're talking about a convention,
• 22:29
  reportedly that is 600 people,
• 22:31
  which looks like 100 party insiders and 500,
• 22:34
  I don't know,
• 22:35
  representatives of the people,
• 22:36
  it's possible,
• 22:38
  possible that they say,
• 22:39
  look,
• 22:41
  We need to go with
• 22:42
  a very typical thing
• 22:43
  that happens in a scenario like this,
• 22:45
  we saw it play out in California.
• 22:46
  If you have a candidate,
• 22:48
  hey,
• 22:48
  we're taking a risk.
• 22:49
  Let's take a risk on that crazy person over there.
• 22:50
  They're gonna be great.
• 22:51
  Oh no,
• 22:52
  the whole thing exploded.
• 22:53
  This is the Eric Swalwell thing in California.
• 22:55
  What parties tend to do
• 22:57
  is select somebody safe,
• 22:59
  somebody who feels safe.
• 23:00
  And Bellows is kind of that.
• 23:02
  Shaw would kind of fit into that as well.
• 23:03
  Somebody who feels generally safe,
• 23:06
  so that.
• 23:07
  That is what we're looking at right now.
• 23:08
  There are opportunities there,
• 23:10
  frankly.
• 23:10
  I mean,
• 23:10
  the fact that,
• 23:11
  you know,
• 23:12
  you've got,
• 23:13
  uh,
• 23:13
  the majority there,
• 23:14
  uh,
• 23:15
  well,
• 23:15
  I mean something like,
• 23:16
  I mean,
• 23:16
  you could almost go no on all three of those candidates,
• 23:18
  frankly.
• 23:19
  Um,
• 23:20
  I,
• 23:20
  I just don't think there's a real 60% chance,
• 23:22
  uh,
• 23:23
  that,
• 23:23
  uh,
• 23:23
  that the Democrats are gonna win that race right now.
• 23:25
  But anyway,
• 23:25
  that's where we are.
• 23:26
  Um,
• 23:27
  let me give you a few more markets here before we
• 23:28
  move on to the constitutional amendments we want to get through.
• 23:30
  Um,
• 23:31
  will Graham Plattner endorse his successor?
• 23:34
  Um,
• 23:34
  I,
• 23:35
  right now that's about 48%.
• 23:37
  He may very well,
• 23:38
  I mean,
• 23:38
  I think there's a good chance he endorses Jackson if he does endorse somebody.
• 23:42
  Um,
• 23:43
  that,
• 23:43
  that being said,
• 23:44
  I mean,
• 23:44
  how much do you want
• 23:46
  the endorsement of an accused rapist?
• 23:49
  I mean,
• 23:50
  there are very few times that people sought,
• 23:52
  that's a highly sought after endorsement.
• 23:55
  Um,
• 23:56
  that being said,
• 23:57
  in this particular race.
• 23:59
  If Jackson's there,
• 24:00
  Jackson's kind of saying,
• 24:01
  I don't really want your endorsement,
• 24:03
  so he's kind of realizing that maybe having therapist endorse him is not good.
• 24:07
  But in this small room of activists,
• 24:08
  it might be,
• 24:09
  it might actually be something.
• 24:10
  It's yet to be seen.
• 24:11
  Swalwell,
• 24:13
  the difference between Swalwell and Plattner,
• 24:15
  it's yet to be seen
• 24:17
  if
• 24:18
  the voters in California
• 24:20
  see,
• 24:21
  uh,
• 24:22
  Plattner as a person who was wrongly tossed out of here.
• 24:27
  Uh,
• 24:27
  by the like the,
• 24:28
  the thing that he wanted,
• 24:29
  the corporate,
• 24:30
  the corporate media threw me out,
• 24:32
  the,
• 24:32
  the,
• 24:32
  the power structure,
• 24:34
  all that,
• 24:34
  that's what his cell is.
• 24:36
  It's yet to,
• 24:37
  we,
• 24:37
  we're yet to know if people believe that,
• 24:39
  right?
• 24:39
  Do people see him as a wrongly,
• 24:41
  uh,
• 24:42
  tossed to the side figure?
• 24:43
  I mean,
• 24:43
  Al Franken kind of got that after a while,
• 24:45
  right?
• 24:45
  People were saying,
• 24:45
  oh gosh,
• 24:46
  he left after the accusations,
• 24:47
  and he,
• 24:48
  they should have kept him in.
• 24:49
  Uh,
• 24:50
  Swalwell is the opposite.
• 24:51
  People are like,
• 24:51
  uh,
• 24:52
  he was a dirtbag.
• 24:52
  I'm glad he's gone.
• 24:54
  We don't know whether it's gonna land with Plattner,
• 24:56
  um,
• 24:56
  and that's gonna really weigh on that endorsement.
• 24:58
  So I don't know,
• 24:58
  I'm not sure on that one by any means.
• 25:00
  This one's interesting,
• 25:01
  um,
• 25:02
  Poly Mart,
• 25:02
  I love this.
• 25:03
  Will Graham Plattner be divorced by October 31st?
• 25:05
  That's quick.
• 25:07
  8,
• 25:07
  only an 8% chance,
• 25:09
  by the way,
• 25:09
  that that will happen.
• 25:10
  So good for Graham.
• 25:11
  Uh,
• 25:12
  his wife was still making videos,
• 25:13
  uh,
• 25:13
  for him only a month ago.
• 25:14
  Are they really gonna get divorced?
• 25:16
  I mean,
• 25:16
  if,
• 25:17
  I mean,
• 25:17
  if you knew your husband was a rapist,
• 25:18
  I'd hope you'd leave,
• 25:19
  but people seem to like this guy.
• 25:20
  They hang out through the Nazi tattoos,
• 25:22
  they hang out through all these,
• 25:23
  uh,
• 25:23
  these,
• 25:23
  uh,
• 25:24
  weird things that he does,
• 25:25
  sexting during marriage,
• 25:27
  they say,
• 25:28
  they stick around.
• 25:29
  I don't know,
• 25:30
  maybe he's wonderful,
• 25:31
  it might be the stash.
• 25:33
  I don't know.
• 25:33
  Finally,
• 25:34
  uh,
• 25:34
  this one's interesting as well.
• 25:35
  Will Graham Plattner be charged
• 25:37
  by August 31st?
• 25:38
  This would really surprise me,
• 25:40
  and look,
• 25:40
  it would really surprise the markets as well,
• 25:42
  it's only at a 5% chance.
• 25:43
  But August 31st is only what,
• 25:45
  6 weeks away?
• 25:47
  I mean,
• 25:47
  he's,
• 25:47
  is he gonna be charged
• 25:49
  criminally?
• 25:51
  By August 31st,
• 25:53
  I mean,
• 25:53
  I would say no,
• 25:54
  but at 5%,
• 25:56
  maybe there's not that much value,
• 25:57
  uh,
• 25:58
  in that particular market.
• 25:59
  OK,
• 25:59
  need to take a break,
• 26:00
  come back on the other side,
• 26:01
  PredictableShow.com.
• 26:02
  Go there,
• 26:02
  get all the stuff.
• 26:03
  If,
• 26:03
  if I'm,
• 26:04
  I'm,
• 26:04
  you know,
• 26:04
  as I mentioned,
• 26:05
  I'm on vacation next week.
• 26:06
  Uh,
• 26:07
  I will try to update,
• 26:08
  uh,
• 26:08
  you.
• 26:08
  If I do that,
• 26:09
  I'll probably be on the sub stack,
• 26:11
  uh,
• 26:11
  at predictableshow.com.
• 26:13
  There's a bunch of markets.
• 26:14
  We've got a bunch of primaries coming up afterward.
• 26:16
  Might be time to get in a little bit early on some of those.
• 26:18
  Maybe I'll try to get to a couple of those even today,
• 26:20
  or I'll do it on a live stream,
• 26:21
  uh,
• 26:22
  this week,
• 26:22
  maybe tomorrow or something,
• 26:23
  just to give you a little bit of,
• 26:24
  uh,
• 26:24
  uh,
• 26:25
  you know,
• 26:25
  to forerun these elections a little bit before they pop
• 26:28
  up and all these people are at like 98%.
• 26:30
  Uh,
• 26:30
  so go there,
• 26:30
  predictableshow.com and join us on social media at Predictable show.
• 26:34
  Back in a second.
• 26:45
  All right,
• 26:46
  the predictable constitution.
• 26:49
  Yes,
• 26:49
  we are going through step by step.
• 26:51
  These are the rules of the road,
• 26:53
  the way that I look at trading,
• 26:54
  uh,
• 26:55
  on a day to day basis when I'm on here trying to make sure that I don't screw it up,
• 26:59
  which I do
• 27:00
  constantly,
• 27:01
  uh,
• 27:01
  but I try to keep within these rules because when I do that,
• 27:04
  I do much,
• 27:05
  much better,
• 27:05
  and I wanna share them with you.
• 27:07
  Uh,
• 27:07
  let me give you a quick rundown of where we have been so far this week.
• 27:11
  The First Amendment,
• 27:12
  a sure thing,
• 27:13
  always has air quotes.
• 27:16
  2nd Amendment,
• 27:17
  you gotta read the rules.
• 27:19
  Make sure you read the rules when you're investing.
• 27:21
  Please,
• 27:21
  I beg of you,
• 27:22
  Amendment 2 is you gotta read the rules.
• 27:25
  Then we have the 3rd Amendment.
• 27:27
  It's easier to predict what will not happen
• 27:29
  than what will
• 27:30
  happen.
• 27:31
  The 4th Amendment to the predictable Constitution,
• 27:34
  if you're rushing to beat the market,
• 27:35
  it's a trap.
• 27:36
  Probably,
• 27:37
  probably.
• 27:38
  Uh,
• 27:39
  5th Amendment,
• 27:40
  time
• 27:41
  equals
• 27:42
  risk.
• 27:43
  The 6th Amendment to the predictable Constitution.
• 27:46
  It's not investing if you don't know anything about the topic.
• 27:49
  Gosh,
• 27:50
  I had,
• 27:50
  I,
• 27:50
  I had another one of those this week.
• 27:52
  I always,
• 27:53
  that 6th Amendment's a little bugger.
• 27:54
  I can't really remember which one it is in the actual Constitution half the time too,
• 27:58
  and I can't remember it,
• 27:59
  unfortunately,
• 28:00
  too often when I'm actually investing.
• 28:02
  The 7th Amendment,
• 28:03
  know your APR,
• 28:04
  your annual
• 28:05
  percentage rate.
• 28:06
  Know what that is.
• 28:07
  Remember,
• 28:07
  you gotta factor.
• 28:08
  In time when you're making an investment.
• 28:09
  Uh,
• 28:10
  the 8th Amendment,
• 28:10
  it's OK
• 28:11
  to stay away.
• 28:12
  That one burned me this week because I didn't really
• 28:14
  have a great take on Graham Plattner dropping out,
• 28:16
  and I decided
• 28:18
  anyway to play the market and lost.
• 28:20
  Uh,
• 28:20
  the 9th Amendment,
• 28:21
  always buy in shares,
• 28:23
  not dollars.
• 28:24
  This cures one of the biggest mistakes that every
• 28:26
  early trader makes.
• 28:28
  Always buy in shares,
• 28:29
  not dollars.
• 28:30
  The 10th Amendment,
• 28:31
  root for the world that you want.
• 28:33
  Invest in the world that you have.
• 28:36
  Really,
• 28:36
  really important to keep in mind,
• 28:38
  the 11th Amendment,
• 28:39
  invest in the thing,
• 28:40
  not the 2nd order effect.
• 28:43
  And finally,
• 28:44
  the 12th Amendment that we finished yesterday,
• 28:46
  don't invest
• 28:47
  with your heart.
• 28:49
  Use your noggin.
• 28:50
  Really,
• 28:50
  really important.
• 28:51
  All those,
• 28:51
  by the way,
• 28:52
  are available on YouTube.
• 28:53
  You can go back and,
• 28:54
  and watch those.
• 28:54
  We're gonna put it in a playlist so you can watch them all in a row,
• 28:57
  just amendment after amendment after amendment if you like,
• 28:59
  uh,
• 28:59
  but that is going to be there and we'll try to put them up on predictableshow.com.
• 29:03
  Just go there,
• 29:03
  put your email address in,
• 29:04
  and you can get that information.
• 29:05
  OK.
• 29:06
  The 13th Amendment to the Predictable Constitution.
• 29:10
  The order book
• 29:12
  is your friend.
• 29:14
  The order book.
• 29:16
  Is your friend.
• 29:17
  What on God's green earth
• 29:19
  is the order book?
• 29:21
  If you are a new investor,
• 29:22
  you probably don't know
• 29:24
  what the order book is,
• 29:25
  that's OK,
• 29:26
  we'll walk you through that,
• 29:27
  um,
• 29:27
  but
• 29:28
  you should always look at the order book,
• 29:30
  and you should always understand it because,
• 29:32
  Uh,
• 29:32
  you may be a victim.
• 29:34
  You too may be a victim of slippage.
• 29:37
  Let me show you,
• 29:38
  uh,
• 29:39
  that's not a Graham Plattner reference,
• 29:41
  by the way.
• 29:41
  That's not his,
• 29:42
  it's not what he did.
• 29:43
  OK,
• 29:43
  so let's look at this,
• 29:44
  uh,
• 29:44
  let me give you,
• 29:44
  give me a random market here.
• 29:46
  We,
• 29:46
  we came up with one earlier,
• 29:47
  I think it was it,
• 29:48
  one of the Google markets.
• 29:49
  OK,
• 29:49
  so,
• 29:49
  yeah,
• 29:50
  on Calci,
• 29:50
  you can go in and look at the,
• 29:52
  uh,
• 29:52
  most searched people on Google.
• 29:54
  The,
• 29:54
  the volume is very,
• 29:55
  very low on this market,
• 29:56
  and I chose that intentionally.
• 29:57
  There's only $17,000 that have been invested in this market.
• 30:00
  And you know,
• 30:01
  they,
• 30:01
  at the end of the year,
• 30:01
  Google puts out a market that says,
• 30:03
  hey,
• 30:03
  who's been Googled the most this year?
• 30:05
  Uh,
• 30:05
  they put out a list of this.
• 30:06
  You're trying to predict that list,
• 30:07
  OK?
• 30:08
  I'm not even using number one
• 30:10
  because there's a bigger,
• 30:12
  a lot more money on that one.
• 30:13
  market 2,
• 30:14
  and this is mainly applicable to these types of markets,
• 30:18
  um,
• 30:18
  where there's not necessarily a lot of,
• 30:19
  of,
• 30:20
  of,
• 30:21
  uh,
• 30:21
  money.
• 30:22
  Involved in it.
• 30:23
  So,
• 30:23
  right now,
• 30:24
  scroll down to the names here.
• 30:25
  Right now,
• 30:25
  the uh number 2 is Bad Bunny,
• 30:28
  OK?
• 30:29
  So Bad Bunny,
• 30:30
  uh,
• 30:30
  right now is at a 15% chance.
• 30:32
  So if you were right now to pick,
• 30:33
  uh,
• 30:34
  and,
• 30:34
  hey,
• 30:34
  I wanna buy some Bad Bunny,
• 30:36
  I think he's gonna be number 2,
• 30:38
  you'll notice 15%,
• 30:39
  that's what's in your head,
• 30:40
  right?
• 30:40
  That's the headline number.
• 30:42
  To the right though,
• 30:42
  you see yes is 22 cents.
• 30:45
  Well,
• 30:45
  why is that?
• 30:46
  Why is there a split between those two numbers?
• 30:48
  The 15% chance that you see on Bad Bunny
• 30:51
  is the last number that this was traded at.
• 30:53
  So some,
• 30:54
  the last person who bought or sold something
• 30:55
  was at 15%.
• 30:57
  Now click on Bad Bunny,
• 30:58
  the name uh Bad Bunny there,
• 31:00
  and that will open up,
• 31:01
  uh,
• 31:01
  your,
• 31:02
  uh,
• 31:02
  they'll give you the graph option as well,
• 31:04
  but go to trade yes if you would there,
• 31:06
  Adam.
• 31:06
  Trade,
• 31:07
  yes,
• 31:07
  will give you the order book.
• 31:08
  This is what the order book looks like.
• 31:10
  And this is,
• 31:10
  if you think of the order book,
• 31:11
  it's almost like the store shelves,
• 31:13
  right?
• 31:14
  What products are available to buy or at a store,
• 31:18
  right?
• 31:18
  And what price
• 31:19
  are people willing to buy.
• 31:20
  So,
• 31:21
  when you see asks,
• 31:23
  that's what's on the shelf,
• 31:24
  right?
• 31:24
  People,
• 31:25
  somebody wants to sell 125 shares of Bad Bunny
• 31:28
  at 22 cents.
• 31:30
  But the people who want to buy
• 31:32
  Bad Bunny,
• 31:33
  they're only offering up to 15 cents.
• 31:36
  OK.
• 31:37
  So,
• 31:38
  someone's saying,
• 31:38
  I,
• 31:38
  I,
• 31:39
  I'll pay you 15 cents for this,
• 31:40
  but I'm not going above that.
• 31:41
  And there's a gap
• 31:42
  between what people want to buy for and what people want to sell for.
• 31:46
  That is that,
• 31:47
  uh,
• 31:47
  you know,
• 31:48
  what I was talking about,
• 31:48
  slippage
• 31:49
  can happen because if you,
• 31:50
  if you decide,
• 31:51
  hey,
• 31:51
  I'm gonna buy,
• 31:52
  I wanna buy 1000 shares right now of Bad Bunny,
• 31:54
  and you just click
• 31:55
  buy 1000 shares,
• 31:57
  what they're gonna do,
• 31:58
  go to the red one that asks there,
• 32:00
  22 cents.
• 32:01
  It's gonna,
• 32:01
  you're gonna clear out that 125 shares,
• 32:03
  OK?
• 32:04
  Then go up to 23 cents.
• 32:05
  You're gonna clear up that 538 shares as well.
• 32:08
  You've now got whatever,
• 32:09
  600 and,
• 32:10
  you know,
• 32:10
  50 some odd shares.
• 32:12
  But you asked for 1000.
• 32:14
  So it's gonna buy
• 32:15
  the next group
• 32:16
  to get you to 1000,
• 32:17
  which means you're also gonna clear out that 42 cent batch,
• 32:21
  which is sitting there,
• 32:22
  and you'll probably go into that 43 cent batch.
• 32:25
  So instead of getting what you might think is a 15 cent purchase,
• 32:29
  you might wind up spending
• 32:30
  an average of 35 cents.
• 32:34
  That's a major,
• 32:35
  major difference.
• 32:36
  You,
• 32:36
  you've,
• 32:36
  you're paying double what you thought you might pay.
• 32:39
  When you open up the order book,
• 32:40
  you'll see exactly what shares are available for you to buy,
• 32:44
  or on the opposite,
• 32:46
  if you have shares already,
• 32:47
  they're the ones you were looking to sell.
• 32:49
  Understanding the order book is key to any trader who wants to do this at all.
• 32:53
  Outside of just having fun.
• 32:54
  Now,
• 32:54
  if you're coming in there,
• 32:55
  you're just learning,
• 32:56
  you wanna put,
• 32:57
  uh,
• 32:57
  you know,
• 32:58
  you're buying
• 32:59
  little lots of 10 shares and you're just trying to understand the markets,
• 33:02
  you don't have to go this deep.
• 33:03
  But when you get into a place where you're,
• 33:05
  you're putting a lot of money on the line and
• 33:07
  you're actually looking at as part of your investment portfolio,
• 33:09
  this is massively important to understand.
• 33:12
  So that is what the 13th Amendment to the predictable Constitution is,
• 33:16
  the order book.
• 33:18
  Is your friend.
• 33:20
  Always understand the order book.
• 33:21
  OK.
• 33:22
  Uh,
• 33:23
  number 14 is somewhat tied to,
• 33:24
  uh,
• 33:24
  number 13.
• 33:25
  The 14th Amendment to the predictable Constitution is,
• 33:28
  it never
• 33:29
  hurts to ask.
• 33:32
  Ah,
• 33:32
  yes,
• 33:32
  it's something you learn
• 33:33
  as a kid.
• 33:34
  You're like,
• 33:34
  yeah,
• 33:34
  you know what,
• 33:35
  I'd really like,
• 33:35
  uh,
• 33:36
  you know,
• 33:36
  a pack of Twizzlers right now.
• 33:38
  And your mom says,
• 33:39
  you know,
• 33:40
  no,
• 33:40
  you can't have any Twizzlers,
• 33:41
  but you don't know if the answer is no unless you just ask,
• 33:43
  and you say,
• 33:44
  hey,
• 33:44
  I'm just gonna ask.
• 33:45
  This happens on markets as well.
• 33:47
  Bring up that same market.
• 33:48
  Do we have that same market still up,
• 33:49
  actually.
• 33:50
  OK,
• 33:50
  so go back down again to,
• 33:52
  uh,
• 33:52
  to,
• 33:52
  to this,
• 33:53
  uh,
• 33:54
  open up,
• 33:54
  uh,
• 33:55
  open up Taytay.
• 33:56
  Yeah,
• 33:56
  Taylor Swift.
• 33:57
  Let's look at Taylor Swift's numbers here.
• 33:58
  This is the order book,
• 33:59
  uh,
• 34:00
  once again.
• 34:00
  If you think,
• 34:01
  uh,
• 34:02
  you know,
• 34:02
  there's a chance that,
• 34:03
  uh,
• 34:04
  Taylor,
• 34:04
  Taylor Swift
• 34:06
  is going to be the number 2 most searched person on Google this year.
• 34:10
  Again,
• 34:10
  random market.
• 34:11
  Uh,
• 34:12
  right now,
• 34:13
  it is,
• 34:14
  uh,
• 34:14
  what's the,
• 34:14
  go down a little,
• 34:15
  scroll down a little bit more there,
• 34:16
  Adam.
• 34:16
  Uh,
• 34:16
  6 cents is the best offer for shares.
• 34:19
  The best,
• 34:19
  the person willing to buy is willing to buy at 6 cents.
• 34:23
  If you think the chances are,
• 34:25
  are higher than that,
• 34:26
  you can just throw an offer out there.
• 34:28
  I throw an offer out there at 1 cent,
• 34:30
  right?
• 34:31
  Throw an offer out there at 2 cents.
• 34:32
  You never know if someone comes in and takes your offer.
• 34:35
  If you,
• 34:36
  if you think,
• 34:36
  look,
• 34:37
  I don't like where the market is right now,
• 34:39
  but I'm gonna put it,
• 34:39
  you know,
• 34:40
  instead of 6 cents,
• 34:41
  I'm gonna put it down at 1 cent and see if someone buys it.
• 34:43
  Maybe someone will buy it.
• 34:44
  Maybe someone will clear out all those shares.
• 34:45
  They'll get aggressive and they'll buy it.
• 34:47
  Sometimes you see this when there's like a um
• 34:50
  go go scroll down a little bit.
• 34:51
  Give me some other names uh that we have on this list here,
• 34:53
  Adam.
• 34:54
  Uh,
• 34:54
  OK,
• 34:55
  Kamala Harris.
• 34:57
  There is
• 34:58
  who who would buy a share of Kamala Harris as a Person of the Year.
• 35:03
  Uh,
• 35:03
  Most googled,
• 35:04
  there's no chance of that.
• 35:05
  I scroll down a little bit more.
• 35:07
  There's a,
• 35:07
  so if you go,
• 35:08
  uh,
• 35:08
  go back up Adam and click no for a minute.
• 35:10
  So if I wanna buy shares,
• 35:12
  no,
• 35:12
  there's no chance,
• 35:13
  Kamala Harris,
• 35:14
  right now.
• 35:14
  There's a one person
• 35:16
  who is looking to buy shares of Kamala Harris at,
• 35:19
  uh,
• 35:19
  you know,
• 35:20
  1 cent.
• 35:20
  So,
• 35:21
  if you wanna go no,
• 35:22
  it's 99 cents is the best that you can buy.
• 35:25
  Now,
• 35:25
  I have no idea why any sane person would buy.
• 35:28
  Uh,
• 35:28
  a share of yes on Kamala Harris to win this,
• 35:31
  right?
• 35:31
  There's no chance of this.
• 35:33
  However,
• 35:35
  You can say,
• 35:36
  hey,
• 35:36
  I'll make an offer of no at 95 cents.
• 35:40
  Who knows,
• 35:41
  maybe somebody buys it.
• 35:42
  Throw it out there.
• 35:44
  You know,
• 35:44
  maybe someone buys it and then you're getting 5% profit.
• 35:47
  Maybe if you see here the way these,
• 35:48
  uh,
• 35:49
  these shares are lining up right now,
• 35:50
  I'm just glancing at this for the first time.
• 35:51
  There's a bunch of shares at 94%,
• 35:52
  a bunch of shares at 93%,
• 35:53
  but then there's a huge gap
• 35:55
  till 74 cents.
• 35:56
  So maybe you throw
• 35:58
  some shares out at 75 cents.
• 36:00
  Right?
• 36:00
  So if the top two,
• 36:01
  pull their offer or they get knocked off,
• 36:03
  all of a sudden,
• 36:04
  you've got the best offer on the books
• 36:06
  at 75 cents,
• 36:07
  which is a massive profit for something that would,
• 36:09
  again,
• 36:10
  uh,
• 36:10
  think of the First Amendment,
• 36:11
  there's no such thing as a sure thing.
• 36:12
  Uh,
• 36:12
  but,
• 36:13
  uh,
• 36:13
  you know,
• 36:13
  look,
• 36:13
  the bottom line is,
• 36:14
  uh,
• 36:15
  that's pretty much a sure thing.
• 36:16
  So there you go.
• 36:17
  Uh,
• 36:17
  that's kind of how this goes.
• 36:19
  you know,
• 36:21
  you own a store,
• 36:22
  you put a product on the shelf,
• 36:24
  uh,
• 36:24
  that is probably worth $1
• 36:26
  put it out there for $10.
• 36:27
  Maybe somebody buys it.
• 36:29
  Maybe they value it differently than you do.
• 36:31
  That's not your job.
• 36:32
  Your job is not to set their expectations or to make their portfolio any better.
• 36:36
  Your job is just to put out something that you believe
• 36:38
  is fair value,
• 36:39
  and they don't have to take it.
• 36:41
  They,
• 36:41
  they might,
• 36:41
  and this likely will happen a lot to you.
• 36:43
  Throw some shares out there,
• 36:45
  they might sit out there forever and you never wind up selling them.
• 36:48
  That's no cost to you.
• 36:49
  The only thing I would say on this,
• 36:50
  just to be a little bit careful,
• 36:52
  if you're,
• 36:52
  if you're,
• 36:52
  you know,
• 36:53
  this deep into uh prediction markets,
• 36:55
  if you're putting out these offers.
• 36:57
  You may wanna put an expiration date on it.
• 37:00
  The only reason I say that
• 37:01
  is sometimes when things do change,
• 37:04
  uh,
• 37:04
  and you have this offer way,
• 37:05
  way down the books,
• 37:06
  if someone comes in and clears all of them out,
• 37:08
  you could wind up,
• 37:09
  like,
• 37:09
  you know,
• 37:09
  for example,
• 37:10
  if,
• 37:10
  you know,
• 37:10
  I don't know,
• 37:11
  Kamala Harris,
• 37:12
  uh,
• 37:12
  cures cancer tomorrow,
• 37:14
  there,
• 37:14
  I guess there's a chance she could be the number 2 most Googled Person of the Year,
• 37:18
  and all of a sudden those shares might become valuable.
• 37:20
  So just make it,
• 37:20
  give it.
• 37:21
  A time window.
• 37:22
  Don't make it forever.
• 37:23
  But,
• 37:23
  uh,
• 37:23
  that's all I would say.
• 37:24
  Um,
• 37:25
  you know,
• 37:25
  there's no,
• 37:25
  there's no problem
• 37:26
  making an offer and uh if no one takes it,
• 37:29
  no one takes it.
• 37:29
  But if someone does,
• 37:30
  you might do very,
• 37:31
  very well in a market you didn't expect.
• 37:33
  So that's Amendment 14.
• 37:35
  It never
• 37:36
  hurts to ask.
• 37:37
  We have 2 more amendments to go through.
• 37:38
  Uh,
• 37:38
  we'll come back on the other side.
• 37:39
  It's predictableshow.com
• 37:42
  or youtube.com/atpredictableshow.
• 37:55
  We are going through the predictable constitution,
• 37:59
  and we are up to the 15th Amendment to the Constitution.
• 38:03
  What is it?
• 38:05
  Check both sides
• 38:06
  of the coin.
• 38:08
  One interesting thing about prediction,
• 38:09
  Marcus is it's a little bit different than,
• 38:12
  uh,
• 38:12
  you know,
• 38:13
  however you might invest in other,
• 38:15
  in other worlds,
• 38:16
  is there are often options that mean the exact same thing or something very,
• 38:19
  very close
• 38:20
  that are priced differently.
• 38:22
  Let me give you an example of this.
• 38:23
  Uh,
• 38:24
  the World Cup is going on right now.
• 38:26
  Uh,
• 38:26
  we have a game that's coming up in the future,
• 38:27
  and I,
• 38:28
  I would,
• 38:28
  uh,
• 38:28
  I have absolutely no idea,
• 38:30
  uh,
• 38:31
  who would win this game.
• 38:31
  I'm,
• 38:32
  I'm looking at the markets,
• 38:32
  I guess Argentina's favored.
• 38:34
  It's Argentina versus Switzerland,
• 38:35
  OK?
• 38:36
  And you see here,
• 38:37
  it's 72-28%,
• 38:38
  OK?
• 38:38
  That's the percentage.
• 38:40
  So you can go in,
• 38:40
  you can buy yes on Argentina for 72%,
• 38:42
  or you could buy yes on Switzerland for 28%.
• 38:45
  But if you scroll down,
• 38:46
  what you will see.
• 38:48
  There are 2 buttons here.
• 38:51
  There's only 2 outcomes,
• 38:52
  OK?
• 38:53
  Argentina advances or Switzerland advances.
• 38:55
  One of those two things is guaranteed to happen,
• 38:57
  OK?
• 38:58
  But there are buttons there next to those percentages,
• 39:01
  and you see,
• 39:02
  uh,
• 39:02
  Argentina,
• 39:02
  yes,
• 39:03
  74,
• 39:04
  uh,
• 39:04
  no,
• 39:04
  27%,
• 39:05
  Switzerland advances,
• 39:06
  yes,
• 39:07
  28%,
• 39:07
  uh,
• 39:08
  no,
• 39:08
  73%.
• 39:09
  So let me look at,
• 39:09
  let's say we say,
• 39:10
  we think Switzerland's going to advance for argument's sake.
• 39:13
  There are two
• 39:14
  different ways
• 39:16
  to play that exact same outcome
• 39:19
  out of those four buttons.
• 39:20
  The two are,
• 39:21
  yes,
• 39:22
  at 28%.
• 39:23
  Or
• 39:24
  for Switzerland,
• 39:25
  or no for Argentina
• 39:27
  at 27%.
• 39:28
  Get that?
• 39:28
  So like,
• 39:29
  if we're saying Switzerland's gonna win,
• 39:30
  well then Argentina is not going to advance,
• 39:32
  so we could say
• 39:33
  no uh on Argentina,
• 39:35
  or we could say yes on Switzerland.
• 39:36
  Either one of those is gonna do the exact same thing,
• 39:38
  although they are different markets.
• 39:41
  If you notice though,
• 39:42
  those two buttons have 2 different prices on them.
• 39:45
  You can buy Switzerland,
• 39:47
  yes,
• 39:48
  for 28 cents,
• 39:50
  or you can buy Argentina,
• 39:51
  no,
• 39:52
  for 27 cents.
• 39:53
  Now,
• 39:53
  if I were to give you two different products sitting right next to each other,
• 39:56
  there is a Big Mac A
• 39:59
  for 399 cents and Big Mac B for $4.99 which one would you choose?
• 40:04
  Right?
• 40:05
  That's the that is what is in front of you here,
• 40:07
  a little bit of a different scale,
• 40:08
  granted.
• 40:10
  There's,
• 40:10
  it's a 1 cent difference.
• 40:12
  What's the,
• 40:12
  what's the point of,
• 40:13
  of,
• 40:13
  of,
• 40:13
  of even caring about that?
• 40:14
  Well,
• 40:15
  it's 1%.
• 40:16
  You know,
• 40:16
  it's,
• 40:16
  it's a 1%,
• 40:17
  it's 13%.
• 40:19
  Uh,
• 40:19
  and,
• 40:20
  and honestly,
• 40:20
  when you get down in the lower numbers,
• 40:22
  if you have something that's like a,
• 40:24
  a 5% chance of happening,
• 40:25
  it actually is a really big difference,
• 40:28
  uh,
• 40:28
  to your outcome.
• 40:30
  Uh,
• 40:30
  if you're going yes on a long shot,
• 40:32
  it's a massive difference.
• 40:33
  It could be the,
• 40:34
  you know,
• 40:34
  the difference between,
• 40:35
  uh,
• 40:36
  let's say,
• 40:36
  uh,
• 40:37
  4 and 5% is huge.
• 40:39
  Right?
• 40:40
  So,
• 40:40
  just take a moment
• 40:41
  before you click what you want,
• 40:43
  and you could open up these order books too.
• 40:45
  Go to Argentina Advances and click on that for a second.
• 40:48
  You see,
• 40:48
  uh,
• 40:48
  go down and scroll down a little bit.
• 40:50
  So they're,
• 40:50
  they're 27 cents,
• 40:51
  there's 331,000 shares available
• 40:54
  at 27 cents there.
• 40:56
  Now go to Switzerland.
• 40:58
  Uh,
• 40:59
  there's,
• 40:59
  uh,
• 41:00
  Switzerland,
• 41:01
  uh,
• 41:02
  oh sorry,
• 41:02
  go to Argentina.
• 41:04
  Uh,
• 41:05
  there you go.
• 41:06
  Uh,
• 41:06
  and you see there,
• 41:07
  uh,
• 41:08
  yeah,
• 41:08
  334,000,
• 41:09
  now scroll down to Switzerland,
• 41:11
  uh,
• 41:11
  and go click on,
• 41:12
  uh,
• 41:12
  no,
• 41:13
  or click on,
• 41:13
  uh,
• 41:14
  sorry,
• 41:14
  yes,
• 41:15
  uh,
• 41:15
  and then open up that order book.
• 41:17
  Uh,
• 41:18
  there we go,
• 41:18
  uh,
• 41:19
  as we talk you through the internet,
• 41:21
  uh,
• 41:21
  go down.
• 41:21
  There's
• 41:22
  5.8 million
• 41:25
  available
• 41:25
  at,
• 41:26
  uh,
• 41:26
  28 cents.
• 41:27
  Now,
• 41:27
  of course,
• 41:28
  the,
• 41:29
  in reality,
• 41:30
  the whoever that person is who's trying to buy at 27 cents
• 41:32
  on this contract could just go to the other one and,
• 41:35
  and,
• 41:35
  and it's available,
• 41:36
  right?
• 41:36
  There's,
• 41:36
  there's plenty of shares available at 27 cents on the other contract.
• 41:39
  Bottom line is,
• 41:40
  you can get a cent.
• 41:41
  Sometimes you can get 2 cents,
• 41:42
  sometimes you can get a 5 cents difference.
• 41:44
  Right,
• 41:45
  between these markets
• 41:46
  where
• 41:47
  just buying no on someone,
• 41:49
  uh,
• 41:49
  is better.
• 41:50
  Now,
• 41:50
  I,
• 41:51
  one of the earlier,
• 41:51
  um,
• 41:52
  uh,
• 41:53
  one of the earlier constitutional amendments,
• 41:56
  I have a list over here,
• 41:57
  but one of the earlier constitutional amendments
• 41:59
  is basically talks about how saying it's easier to predict what is
• 42:04
  not going to happen than is what is will going to,
• 42:06
  what will happen.
• 42:07
  And the example I use there is if they're priced exactly the same.
• 42:10
  Um,
• 42:10
  a lot of times it's better to pick the no
• 42:13
  on the candidate you don't think will win if it's an election,
• 42:16
  because if,
• 42:17
  you know,
• 42:17
  something like Plattner happens,
• 42:18
  that person drops out,
• 42:19
  you might not,
• 42:20
  uh,
• 42:20
  you have a little bit of extra added value when they're the exact same price.
• 42:23
  But a lot of times they're different prices.
• 42:25
  You can actually just get 3 cents
• 42:27
  on your,
• 42:28
  uh,
• 42:28
  investment if you just make sure to check both sides
• 42:31
  of the coin.
• 42:31
  That's why the 15th Amendment,
• 42:33
  like a predictable constitution is check both sides
• 42:36
  of the coin.
• 42:38
  The 16th Amendment is
• 42:40
  Ah,
• 42:40
  yes,
• 42:41
  this is a big one,
• 42:41
  might be big in your bedroom as well.
• 42:43
  Size does
• 42:45
  matter.
• 42:46
  It does,
• 42:47
  at least,
• 42:47
  at least for some.
• 42:48
  Some people say it doesn't,
• 42:49
  you know.
• 42:50
  Um,
• 42:51
  the reason why I make this up is not,
• 42:52
  uh,
• 42:52
  you know,
• 42:53
  not the Graham Plattner reference of what what size is mattering.
• 42:56
  I'm talking about
• 42:57
  instead the size of your position,
• 42:59
  and the size of your position should not
• 43:01
  be dictated by
• 43:03
  a random feeling.
• 43:05
  Should not be dictated by,
• 43:06
  I do the same thing for every single investment that I make.
• 43:10
  It should be really sized upon how sure you are that you're going
• 43:15
  to,
• 43:15
  that you're making a good investment,
• 43:17
  right?
• 43:18
  If you go into,
• 43:19
  and you,
• 43:19
  you know,
• 43:20
  if you're like,
• 43:20
  oh,
• 43:20
  I'm gonna put 50 bucks on everything,
• 43:23
  what you'll wind up is 50 bucks on long shots that have no chance,
• 43:26
  and 50 bucks on good investments,
• 43:27
  50 bucks where you have really good value,
• 43:29
  50 bucks on where you have really terrible value.
• 43:31
  You want to size these,
• 43:33
  uh,
• 43:33
  uh,
• 43:33
  these positions.
• 43:35
  Um,
• 43:35
  based on
• 43:37
  how sure you are
• 43:39
  and how comfortable you are
• 43:40
  with the outcome of that investment.
• 43:43
  And that's really,
• 43:44
  really,
• 43:44
  really important,
• 43:45
  and I will,
• 43:45
  I will say,
• 43:46
  it sounds stupid,
• 43:47
  but it is one of the more difficult things to do as an investor in these markets,
• 43:51
  because a lot of times you're just like,
• 43:52
  ah,
• 43:52
  that looks great,
• 43:53
  you're just kind of throwing stuff out there.
• 43:54
  Don't do that.
• 43:55
  Think about it,
• 43:56
  and I have,
• 43:57
  uh,
• 43:57
  you know,
• 43:58
  uh,
• 43:58
  uh,
• 43:58
  uh,
• 43:59
  maybe a different appetite
• 44:00
  for risk than you do.
• 44:02
  This is why it's not,
• 44:02
  I'm not gonna say like,
• 44:03
  oh,
• 44:04
  put $5 when you have low confidence and put $100 when you have high confidence.
• 44:08
  That might not make sense for you.
• 44:09
  You might not have that much money in your account,
• 44:10
  you might have way more money in your account than that.
• 44:13
  So we have levels of this,
• 44:15
  and this is how I do it.
• 44:16
  You can do a little bit differently,
• 44:17
  but this is basically how I do it and how each
• 44:20
  size
• 44:21
  is uh described,
• 44:22
  OK?
• 44:23
  So,
• 44:24
  the smallest position that I take is called a marker position.
• 44:26
  I call that in my head.
• 44:27
  And basically,
• 44:27
  it's a small,
• 44:28
  smallest position.
• 44:29
  That I will take,
• 44:30
  I will take that on basically no information at all,
• 44:33
  on an initial vibe.
• 44:34
  If I have a,
• 44:35
  oh God,
• 44:35
  that's an interesting market,
• 44:36
  uh,
• 44:37
  I will just kind of throw that out there and just say,
• 44:38
  all right,
• 44:39
  well,
• 44:39
  I wanna remind myself that market exists,
• 44:41
  I might wanna look into it a little bit more.
• 44:43
  You know,
• 44:44
  this can honestly be one share.
• 44:46
  You know,
• 44:47
  one share,
• 44:47
  which will cost you less than $1 every single time,
• 44:50
  just to kind of mark the thing and say,
• 44:51
  God,
• 44:51
  that sounds interesting,
• 44:52
  I gotta look more into that.
• 44:53
  Or,
• 44:54
  you know,
• 44:54
  I heard a tip from uh Stu,
• 44:56
  uh,
• 44:56
  you know,
• 44:56
  that overweight guy I watch on,
• 44:58
  on,
• 44:58
  on YouTube,
• 44:59
  and he said,
• 44:59
  hey,
• 45:00
  uh,
• 45:00
  what about this one?
• 45:01
  You know,
• 45:02
  that doesn't mean just follow me,
• 45:03
  like,
• 45:03
  you might wanna do your own research on it,
• 45:05
  but like,
• 45:05
  maybe you put a marker of one share,
• 45:07
  right?
• 45:08
  Just so you can kind of remind yourself,
• 45:09
  follow it.
• 45:10
  Follow my picks when you hear me make them with one share.
• 45:12
  It's a really easy way to keep track of how good or bad I'm doing,
• 45:15
  right?
• 45:16
  So,
• 45:16
  marker position,
• 45:17
  smallest possible position.
• 45:18
  Then we have a small position.
• 45:21
  This is a real position.
• 45:22
  This is,
• 45:22
  you have a real
• 45:23
  uh vibe on something,
• 45:24
  maybe you've done a little bit of research,
• 45:26
  but you have limited confidence on this.
• 45:28
  This should be the type of uh amount of money that you just kind of,
• 45:31
  if you lose,
• 45:31
  you go,
• 45:31
  ah,
• 45:32
  darn it,
• 45:32
  uh.
• 45:33
  You shrug.
• 45:34
  It's not that big of a deal to you,
• 45:35
  it's not gonna ruin,
• 45:36
  it's not gonna blow up your portfolio,
• 45:38
  but it's bigger than a marker position,
• 45:40
  you know,
• 45:40
  you're taking a bit of a a a position there.
• 45:42
  I do that a lot.
• 45:43
  When I,
• 45:43
  you know,
• 45:44
  I'll do that a lot when I have,
• 45:45
  uh,
• 45:45
  you know,
• 45:45
  some information on a market,
• 45:47
  but I'm not
• 45:48
  deeply researched into it.
• 45:49
  I'll put a small position onto it,
• 45:51
  uh,
• 45:51
  and I'll hold myself responsible for that,
• 45:53
  but I'm not gonna,
• 45:54
  you know,
• 45:54
  I'm not gonna cry if I lose that position.
• 45:56
  Uh,
• 45:56
  then we have a medium position.
• 45:58
  This is sort of
• 45:59
  the most typical position that I take,
• 46:01
  OK?
• 46:02
  It means I have,
• 46:02
  uh,
• 46:03
  uh,
• 46:03
  you know,
• 46:03
  a normal
• 46:04
  amount of confidence.
• 46:06
  Uh,
• 46:06
  it is a,
• 46:06
  you know,
• 46:07
  I,
• 46:07
  I've done my research.
• 46:08
  I feel confident in what I've done.
• 46:10
  I,
• 46:10
  you know,
• 46:10
  it's,
• 46:11
  I'm not sure of the outcome,
• 46:12
  but I feel pretty good about it.
• 46:14
  Um,
• 46:14
  and,
• 46:15
  you know,
• 46:15
  if I lose,
• 46:16
  I'm gonna be annoyed at myself.
• 46:17
  Like it's it's gonna sting a little bit,
• 46:19
  you know,
• 46:19
  it's not gonna be.
• 46:20
  Uh,
• 46:21
  who cares?
• 46:21
  I,
• 46:21
  I'll forget about that in 5 seconds.
• 46:23
  I'll wanna learn something from why I missed.
• 46:25
  I'll want to,
• 46:26
  uh,
• 46:27
  you know,
• 46:27
  investigate that a little bit further,
• 46:29
  but this is also not,
• 46:30
  I'm
• 46:31
  massively certain as to what it is going to happen.
• 46:34
  It's gonna sting a little bit,
• 46:35
  but it's not a massive position.
• 46:36
  OK.
• 46:37
  Next one is large.
• 46:39
  Yes,
• 46:39
  these are,
• 46:40
  I should have really done these and maybe,
• 46:41
  maybe I'll rework the names of these into uh soda sizes,
• 46:45
  but this is the
• 46:46
  this is the large soda.
• 46:47
  This is something you're sure of,
• 46:49
  or you see massive value in,
• 46:50
  right?
• 46:51
  Like you,
• 46:51
  you,
• 46:51
  you think it's a 50% chance of happening and you're buying shares at 10 cents,
• 46:54
  right?
• 46:55
  Massive value,
• 46:56
  uh,
• 46:57
  you're or you're really sure of the outcome.
• 46:59
  You know,
• 47:00
  it might be a 95% position,
• 47:01
  but like you are even more sure than 95%.
• 47:04
  Uh,
• 47:05
  that type of situation is a large position.
• 47:07
  This is
• 47:08
  something that is really painful
• 47:10
  if you lose.
• 47:11
  You don't wanna,
• 47:12
  I mean,
• 47:12
  I
• 47:13
  frankly can't remember the last time I lost a large position.
• 47:16
  Uh,
• 47:17
  I honestly,
• 47:18
  I can't even remember the last time that happened,
• 47:21
  um.
• 47:22
  I mean,
• 47:23
  I did mention one in the constitutional amendment thing where I lost a position on,
• 47:26
  uh,
• 47:27
  uh,
• 47:27
  on,
• 47:28
  uh,
• 47:28
  uh,
• 47:29
  what's his face,
• 47:30
  Andrew Yang's tweets.
• 47:31
  I mean,
• 47:32
  I remember that one.
• 47:32
  I'm sure there have been some here and there that,
• 47:34
  that has happened,
• 47:35
  but like I really don't enter these markets
• 47:37
  or have any expectation of losing.
• 47:39
  Um,
• 47:40
  honestly,
• 47:40
  even with massive value,
• 47:42
  I,
• 47:42
  I.
• 47:43
  I,
• 47:43
  I'll go more,
• 47:44
  I'm much more likely to be in a medium position on value,
• 47:47
  because I really just don't wanna lose when
• 47:48
  we're talking about this amount of money.
• 47:50
  This stings you.
• 47:51
  This knocks out a decent chunk of your portfolio.
• 47:53
  This,
• 47:53
  this one's really going to,
• 47:55
  uh,
• 47:56
  cause real pain if you lose.
• 47:57
  But it's not gonna wipe you out.
• 47:58
  It doesn't mean you're never on a prediction market again.
• 48:01
  Uh,
• 48:01
  it doesn't mean that you've,
• 48:02
  you're gonna lose half of your,
• 48:03
  uh,
• 48:03
  portfolio.
• 48:04
  It just means.
• 48:05
  You know,
• 48:06
  you don't wanna miss on these.
• 48:07
  I really,
• 48:07
  I,
• 48:08
  I don't,
• 48:08
  I tend to never miss on these,
• 48:10
  and that's just something that is,
• 48:12
  uh,
• 48:12
  for me,
• 48:12
  I,
• 48:13
  I,
• 48:13
  I don't like risking that much.
• 48:15
  You might have more risk tolerance,
• 48:16
  that's why we have these categories.
• 48:17
  And then finally,
• 48:18
  there is
• 48:18
  the biggest position you can possibly take,
• 48:20
  the all-in position.
• 48:22
  This is one where you're basically like,
• 48:23
  this is,
• 48:24
  I can't believe I'm I have any possi I
• 48:26
  can't believe they're allowing me to buy these shares,
• 48:28
  right?
• 48:28
  Like that is
• 48:29
  what I mean when we're talking about this.
• 48:31
  This is as much cash as you can realistically spare
• 48:34
  from your bankroll.
• 48:35
  If you lose one of these,
• 48:36
  it is,
• 48:37
  you know,
• 48:37
  it's,
• 48:38
  it would be a catastrophic situation.
• 48:40
  Um,
• 48:40
  you know,
• 48:40
  I've never lost one of these,
• 48:41
  um,
• 48:42
  uh,
• 48:42
  in my entire life.
• 48:43
  Uh,
• 48:44
  so this should be where you feel,
• 48:45
  uh,
• 48:46
  uh,
• 48:46
  uh,
• 48:46
  how you feel about this.
• 48:47
  The,
• 48:47
  the,
• 48:48
  an example of this from a couple of weeks ago was the Hakeem Jeffries market,
• 48:52
  where he was running literally unopposed.
• 48:54
  There was some quirk in a,
• 48:55
  in Poly markets rules
• 48:57
  that was screwing with the market,
• 48:58
  but Calci didn't have the quirk,
• 49:00
  and I was like,
• 49:01
  there's just,
• 49:01
  I don't even see any possible
• 49:03
  circumstance
• 49:04
  that I could lose this.
• 49:06
  You better freaking be sure when you go all in on that though.
• 49:09
  I mean,
• 49:09
  I took basically every dollar available that I had,
• 49:12
  or at least uh realistically possible,
• 49:15
  um,
• 49:15
  to,
• 49:15
  and I just kept pouring it into that market,
• 49:17
  just making several percent
• 49:19
  uh on even when it got uh in the nineties.
• 49:22
  I was just,
• 49:22
  you know,
• 49:22
  cleaning up on that.
• 49:24
  That's OK to do every once in a while,
• 49:25
  but you better freaking be sure.
• 49:27
  You better freaking be sure.
• 49:28
  So that's what that is,
• 49:30
  and,
• 49:30
  and that's why
• 49:31
  I really want you to think about that.
• 49:32
  You should personalize that list.
• 49:34
  I have those ideas.
• 49:35
  Maybe marker 1 share,
• 49:36
  maybe all in is
• 49:37
  half of your available cash.
• 49:39
  I don't know what it is,
• 49:40
  but somewhere in there,
• 49:42
  send those out and,
• 49:43
  and,
• 49:43
  and realize that you should be thinking about that before you enter a market.
• 49:46
  Uh,
• 49:47
  enter that market with a marker position first.
• 49:49
  Hold the position,
• 49:50
  and then you can always up it later on,
• 49:52
  but think about what size
• 49:54
  you're gonna take because the 16th Amendment to the predictable Constitution is,
• 49:57
  of course,
• 49:58
  size
• 49:59
  does matter.
• 50:00
  OK,
• 50:01
  that's all the time we have,
• 50:02
  uh,
• 50:02
  for today.
• 50:03
  Next week,
• 50:03
  I'm going to be off.
• 50:05
  Uh,
• 50:05
  so I'm on vacation next week.
• 50:07
  We got a little family summer vacation going on.
• 50:09
  I will check in probably at predictableshow.com,
• 50:13
  uh,
• 50:13
  just to kind of say,
• 50:13
  hey,
• 50:14
  there's some things going on.
• 50:16
  Tomorrow I may do a live stream of some early primary picks,
• 50:21
  because I don't wanna wait too long for these to just go away,
• 50:24
  so that by the time we cover them,
• 50:26
  they're at 98%.
• 50:28
  So,
• 50:28
  uh,
• 50:29
  you know,
• 50:29
  uh,
• 50:30
  there might be some in the 80s and 90s that I wanna get out there,
• 50:32
  a couple of other takes.
• 50:33
  Maybe we'll do something on that tomorrow or
• 50:34
  maybe I'll write something up at predictableshow.com.
• 50:37
  But go there,
• 50:37
  just put your email address in
• 50:39
  so you know when these things are happening.
• 50:40
  I don't want you to miss out on these opportunities.
• 50:42
  Uh,
• 50:42
  you know,
• 50:42
  I want you to be able to,
• 50:43
  I do hear that in the comments from time to time.
• 50:45
  Oh,
• 50:45
  I missed that live stream.
• 50:46
  Oh,
• 50:46
  I missed that one episode,
• 50:47
  and that's when you said this and I could have made money on it.
• 50:50
  Yeah,
• 50:50
  I know.
• 50:50
  I,
• 50:51
  these things happen.
• 50:51
  It's OK.
• 50:52
  You're not gonna be able to get every single
• 50:53
  piece of content,
• 50:54
  and honestly,
• 50:55
  maybe you'll miss one where I'm wrong
• 50:56
  and you'll get lucky.
• 50:57
  But the bottom line is having the information is better than not having it.
• 51:00
  So,
• 51:01
  check that out and we will,
• 51:02
  uh,
• 51:02
  probably see you over there tomorrow.
• 51:04
  If not,
• 51:04
  we'll be back in about a week.
• 51:05
  We're gonna start getting some more primaries that will be popping up.
• 51:09
  There's a lot of them in August.
• 51:10
  There's some in September.
• 51:11
  From,
• 51:11
  from when the time I get back next week,
• 51:13
  uh,
• 51:13
  after this next week's vacation
• 51:15
  until the election,
• 51:15
  we are in.
• 51:16
  You know,
• 51:17
  full-fledged,
• 51:18
  like,
• 51:19
  you know,
• 51:19
  chaos mode,
• 51:20
  right?
• 51:20
  There's,
• 51:21
  there's tons of stuff going on all the time,
• 51:23
  uh,
• 51:24
  basically,
• 51:24
  uh,
• 51:25
  once we get back.
• 51:26
  So,
• 51:26
  uh,
• 51:26
  I wanna prepare you a little bit for that.
• 51:28
  Take a little,
• 51:28
  a little mental break,
• 51:29
  get a little time to,
• 51:31
  to,
• 51:31
  to think about that,
• 51:31
  but
• 51:32
  I think I saw,
• 51:33
  I don't remember this,
• 51:34
  it was,
• 51:34
  I think I saw someone updated,
• 51:36
  it was like 117 days to the election.
• 51:38
  Right,
• 51:39
  so we're about 4 months out.
• 51:40
  2 of those months are gonna be heavy primary months.
• 51:42
  There's a lot gonna be going on
• 51:44
  in elections and,
• 51:45
  and outside of them as well.
• 51:46
  So we'll get you as much of that information
• 51:48
  as we can.
• 51:49
  Uh,
• 51:50
  I will take a break.
• 51:51
  I will turn my brain off as much as possible next week.
• 51:54
  And then we will come back
• 51:55
  ready to kick some butt,
• 51:56
  ready to get you ready for those elections,
• 51:58
  because we're doing this together
• 52:00
  and we're trying to make a pretty crazy world a little bit more
• 52:03
  predictable.
• 52:04
  So join us at predictableshow.com.
• 52:07
  Thanks so much for joining us and we will see you in a week.