Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Worlds #1 Hedge Fund SENDS HUGE WARNING: ''YOU NEED 40% Bitcoin in Your Portfolio!' | EP 1277

Transcript

Worlds #1 Hedge Fund SENDS HUGE WARNING: ''YOU NEED 40% Bitcoin in Your Portfolio!' | EP 1277 · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  Literally in the past 24 hours, we've seen the world's largest
• 0:04
  hedge fund manager come out and recommend that people get a 40%
• 0:10
  allocation to Bitcoin. And then just earlier today,
• 0:15
  Donald Trump, leader of the world's largest nation state, is
• 0:19
  talking about scrapping capital gains taxes on Bitcoin.
• 0:24
  And this, this could unlock literally trillions of dollars
• 0:29
  to flow into Bitcoin. But before we get ahead of
• 0:31
  ourselves, let's actually go and watch the clip of Rick Edelman
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  again, the head of one of the world's largest hedge fund
• 0:39
  managers make an absolute bombshell Bitcoin portfolio
• 0:44
  recommendation that we have to dive straight into it.
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  Opti. Let's play that clip.
• 0:51
  Now I want to point out that your current viewpoint
• 0:54
  represents a dramatic shift from.
• 0:57
  Before, what do you used to tell investors and recommend that
• 1:01
  investors allocate low single digits to crypto in portfolios?
• 1:04
  So what has changed now? Why do you?
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  Think specifically now you can allocate up to 40% in
• 1:11
  portfolios, I mean that's. A big jump.
• 1:13
  It sure is in my book, The Truth About Crypto, which was a number
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  one Amazon bestseller. That was in 2021, just four
• 1:20
  years ago. And I said 1%.
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  Today I'm saying 40%. That's astonishing, right?
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  Nobody ever, anywhere has said such a thing as what I'm saying
• 1:29
  now. Why the shift?
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  It's because of the massive change in the evolution of
• 1:34
  crypto that we've enjoyed in the past four years.
• 1:37
  Four years ago, we didn't know if governments were going to ban
• 1:41
  Bitcoin. We didn't know if the technology
• 1:43
  would become obsolete. We didn't know if consumers
• 1:45
  might not want to adopt it. We didn't know if there'd be any
• 1:48
  institutional engagement today. All those questions are resolved
• 1:53
  in the Trump administration. In the new Congress, there is
• 1:56
  massive support for crypto. Every member of the president's
• 2:00
  cabinet personally owns Bitcoin, every major economic appointee
• 2:03
  of the president, the secretaries of Treasury,
• 2:05
  Commerce, Department of Labor, the heads of the SECCFTCOCCFDIC,
• 2:12
  all of them huge supporters of crypto.
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  There's no longer a question as to whether the government likes
• 2:17
  this or not and is going to support the development.
• 2:19
  We also now see institutional investors engaging in ways never
• 2:23
  seen before. Banks are now permitted for the
• 2:26
  very first time, along with brokerage firms, to trade and
• 2:29
  custody crypto, which they could never do before.
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  Stable coins are now a, Goldman calls it the killer app of
• 2:37
  crypto. We now have a huge array going
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  in. And in fact, the first
• 2:42
  legislation out of Congress is crypto legislation, the Genius
• 2:45
  Act. So it is radically changed.
• 2:48
  It is now a mainstream asset. And we look at the adoption
• 2:51
  rate, it's still incredibly low. It's only about 5% of the global
• 2:56
  population that own crypto at this stage.
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  As more and more get involved, learn about it, discover it and
• 3:03
  invest in it, we're going to see massive asset inflows and
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  because certainly in the case of Bitcoin, it's a fixed supply
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  asset, the more. Pretty bullish, don't you think,
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  Opti? I mean, the kids going from
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  recommending a 1% Bitcoin allocation to 40.
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  And what I think's interesting is that this is not just, you
• 3:26
  know, your one or your two, you know, hedge fund managers at the
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  extremes. We've now got BlackRock going
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  from calling Bitcoin, you know, not an ESG asset.
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  In 2021, they were saying Bitcoin is bad for the
• 3:40
  environment. In 2017, Larry Fink said that
• 3:43
  Bitcoin is just used for money laundering.
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  And but now all of a sudden he's gone from that to, OK, Bitcoin
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  is an investable asset. It is a legitimate asset.
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  And we recommend everybody put 1 to 2% of Bitcoin in their
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  portfolio. So I think this pivot that we're
• 4:00
  starting to see, it's really interesting and it's across the
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  board. It is 55% of global hedge funds
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  right now have a Bitcoin allocation.
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  And if they're listening and watching what Rick Edelman is
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  saying, again, the man at the head of a firm worth $300
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  billion, and they're watching him go from A 1% Bitcoin
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  recommendation in 2021 to today, a 40% Bitcoin recommendation.
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  What do you guys think is going to happen to the other 55% of
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  the global hedge funds that own Bitcoin?
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  Again, these guys, they own about $5 trillion of wealth and
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  there's about 15,000 hedge funds.
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  And right now, I think they're going to be absolutely
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  scrambling to put more Bitcoin on their balance sheet and
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  increase their exposure to Bitcoin.
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  I don't know about you off there, but I'm feeling pretty.
• 4:52
  Well, yeah. Well, it's absolutely
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  incredible. Look, we've been talking about
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  this on the show for a long time.
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  Kind of the strategy or rather the psychology around Bitcoin.
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  You first get in, you're kind of like, yeah, let me, let me just
• 5:03
  dabble in this, get like 1 to 2%.
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  I think all of last year. Everyone's like, look, you're
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  not going to blow up your portfolio if you just put 3% of
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  your of your total portfolio into Bitcoin.
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  Now we got this guy Rick Adam, who for you guys that don't
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  know, he's literally been voted the number One Financial advisor
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  for multiple years. He's I, I forget what it was
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  called, but it's like the investor Hall of Fame or
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  something like that. He's written books about
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  financial, you know, security, what to do with your finances.
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  And as that clip said, and people in the chat were
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  wondering if that was a real clip.
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  It wasn't AI guys. It was just somewhat like it got
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  out of sync. I don't know what happened
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  there, but now he's gone from 1% to 40% and honestly, he's
• 5:44
  sounding a lot like us here. Simply Bitcoin.
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  We we basically tell you like put half of what you can into
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  Bitcoin. Not financial advice, of course,
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  but this is what we did. We basically, you know, pay your
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  bills, pay your rent, pay your groceries.
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  Everything else should go into Bitcoin as all Bitcoiners say,
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  you know, sell your chairs, live in your parents basement, sell
• 6:03
  your cars, go all in on Bitcoin. Well, now we have literally the
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  number One Financial advisor who also is a head funds manager,
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  essentially saying what we've been saying on the show for a
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  very long time. And to, you know, kind of
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  backtracker or bring his receipts up.
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  He's basically mentioning all of the regulatory clarity, all the
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  institutions have 180% flip on Bitcoin ever since the Trump
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  administration has come in here. So it is very interesting.
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  As much as you may not love Orange Man, you know, you
• 6:33
  probably don't like him. Maybe you do like him.
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  You can at least acknowledge the fundamental shift that we've
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  seen since the United States has come out for Bitcoin.
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  And we're seeing this not only happen in the US by financial
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  advisors, institutions like Larry Fink and BlackRock,
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  etcetera, but we've seen this around the world.
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  Every country now and probably every financial advisor has to
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  seriously look at Bitcoin. We're seeing new nation states
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  come out every other day a week, basically say like, oh, we're
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  going to study. What do you call it?
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  Strategic Bitcoin observe now, like the game is fundamentally
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  changing. The game theory is kicking into
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  OverDrive. And I think now that we have
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  essentially Main Street being walked into, or rather, you
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  know, handheld into saving into Bitcoin, we're going to see a
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  crazy amount of people finally dip their toes into Bitcoin.
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  I literally, you know, this is more of a heuristic, a personal
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  one, but I had one of my friends call me this weekend and he we
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  haven't talked to him in a while and he knows I've been in
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  Bitcoin forever. I've been literally shilling
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  Bitcoin to him for years at this point.
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  And he finally is coming to the same realization.
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  I think all these institutional managers are coming to, which is
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  essentially like life's getting harder.
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  You know, I'm seeing businesses come down, inflation's going up,
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  the cost of living is getting crazy.
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  And he's kind of looking over at me like, but you know, how are
• 7:56
  you doing so well? It's like, bro, it's Bitcoin.
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  All you have to do is just start saving in Bitcoin.
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  It's really not that difficult. So of course, that's a personal
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  anecdote here, but I think what we're seeing is the tide shift
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  around Bitcoin. We're seeing that people are,
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  you know, for lack of a better term, becoming more accepting of
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  this Bitcoin thing. People are realizing, hey, you
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  know, this is probably a good thing to store my value in.
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  And I think now that we have literally the the best marketing
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  team out there, the guys in the suits, whether you love them or
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  hate them, and they're out there on television talking about
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  Bitcoin, talking about, hey, you might want to get some just in
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  case it catches on. I think we are fundamentally in
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  a new paradigm shift like 1%, 40% is a huge jump.
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  Like he's starting to sound like a full on Bitcoiner.
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  And all he basically said is like, look, every institution is
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  becoming pro Bitcoin at this point.
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  Like you probably should get some.
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  And I think we're seeing that happen very fast.
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  And obviously for you guys out there, you're the only thing you
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  care about. It's like, OK, that's cool Opti,
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  but like, when does number go up?
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  That's the only thing that matters here for most people.
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  It's like, yeah, that's fine. You know, I get to acquire more
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  sats, but we've been stuck at 100K for 40 days, bro.
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  When is this going to RIP? I think soon.
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  I think very, very soon. At least that would be, that's
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  my vibe. That's my feeling.
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  I, I think we're in kind of the, the historical quiet of the
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  summer. Usually it's kind of, you know,
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  selling may go away and then they'll start pumping at the
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  end. And that's really for most
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  assets in general. But I don't know, Luke, it's
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  starting to feel like the tsunami's coming.
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  Like what is your like? I know you've been on that beat
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  for a minute. You've been talking about the
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  mother of all supply shocks. You know the exchanges are
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  drying up. You know the institutional
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  capital is coming in, the Bitcoin treasury companies are
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  buying all the Bitcoin. When is this breaking, Luke?
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  When is this breaking to the upside?
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  Yeah, so I've put my metaphor, my metaphorical, let's say,
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  reputation on the line here for a little while.
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  Because again, I think if we get to 2030 and Bitcoin's not
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  1,000,000 bucks, again, you guys can all call me the biggest
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  loser and the biggest fool in the game, because I've been
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  screaming for a little while here.
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  I do think that these ideas of cycles and diminishing returns,
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  they're all going to get broken to the upside.
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  It's going to be really mind blowing.
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  I I think the way that's, you know, Bitcoin evolves over these
• 10:18
  next five years and it's purely because Bitcoin's a different
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  asset now. We bring you guys the news
• 10:23
  literally every day here. It's simply Bitcoin.
• 10:26
  We should nearly rebrand the live show to a a double daily
• 10:29
  dose of live show bullishness because that is how many bullish
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  headlines are just starting to come out here.
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  And when the bull run really kicks up, I don't think we'll
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  even be able to stay on top of it with our daily live shows
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  from Monday to Friday and Dante Ruston and Ocean's posting
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  videos like psychopaths all week as well.
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  I don't think we're going to be able to keep up with the bullish
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  news when this bull run really starts kicking into high gear
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  because like you said, Opti, right now, I don't think we've
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  even seen the beginning stages of this bull run.
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  I, I think again, like you say, it's really interesting.
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  Traditionally the way that you know, the markets evolve
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  seasonally is you sell in May and you go away and typically
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  all the broader markets are pretty quiet during these, you
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  know, time frames. And we did see something similar
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  like this last year in Bitcoin. Bitcoin kind of hit that all
• 11:25
  time high at about, you know, when was it like 6569?
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  Seventy $1000 a coin in Q12024. And then when we got into the
• 11:37
  summer doldrums, so to say, Bitcoin was just chopping
• 11:40
  sideways at like between 70 and $55,000 a coin for seven or
• 11:45
  eight months. And at the time, so many people
• 11:48
  said it's it at the top the way it was a distributing their
• 11:52
  Bitcoin. You know, Black Rocks launched
• 11:54
  this Bitcoin ETF to make you the exit liquidity.
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  Big money's dumping Bitcoin, it's all over, pack it up.
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  But of course that didn't happen today.
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  We're back at $110,000. And again, I would just caution
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  people, look, if we do have a quiet couple of months here,
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  just be prepared for some explosive volatility because I
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  think at the end of the day, supply and demand is the first
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  principles of economics. And right now, we're seeing a
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  supply shock at the same time that we're seeing a massive wave
• 12:28
  of demand come into the space. So I'm pretty bullish over the
• 12:31
  next six months. I'm pretty excited to see what
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  happens next. Yeah, 100%.
• 12:34
  I, I mean, I'm super bullish and we have some good comments in
• 12:38
  the chat, but I actually, Luke, I want to, I want to kind of
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  before we move on, I kind of want to recap and, and maybe
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  have a better memory than I do. But what is, what has it been
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  the, the advocated portfolio size?
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  I, I remember it was like 1%. I think it got up to like 3% in
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  the last couple of weeks. We've seen it kind of move up
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  towards the 510%. And now we got a new one coming
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  out from someone again, the number One Financial advisor
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  like voted three years in a row or for at least three years.
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  He's in the Investor Financial Advice Hall of Fame and he's
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  gone to 40% now. It's kind of a big jump going
• 13:15
  from 10% to 40%. Do you remember what the other
• 13:19
  portfolio investment in vices were?
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  I think it was one to three and then we got to like 3 for five
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  and I think we covered that last week and then it's kind of like
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  5 to 10% and now this guy's 40%. Obviously, I think in the long
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  run in, in hindsight, we will know that he is closer to the
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  truth here. Obviously, you know, we would
• 13:38
  say maybe go 100%, but then you also have to live, you know,
• 13:40
  there's, there's bills, there's, there's groceries, etcetera,
• 13:43
  your rent, all that stuff. But 40% sounds a lot closer to
• 13:47
  what US bitcoiners have been saying forever, rather maybe
• 13:49
  what we did ourselves, you know, I'm sure.
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  But you and I have both done 50% as much as possible, you know,
• 13:55
  literally living in your, your parents basement and just
• 13:58
  stacking everything you can in Bitcoin.
• 14:00
  So do you remember what the numbers were?
• 14:02
  I think it was one to three. And then we saw a jump from like
• 14:04
  3:00 to 5:00. And then in the last couple of
• 14:06
  weeks it went 5 to 10. And now we got this new 140%.
• 14:10
  Like when did when are they saying 100?
• 14:12
  When are they going full sailor and saying 100?
• 14:14
  It's. Coming that day is coming,
• 14:17
  that's for sure. But what I will say is like 4
• 14:20
  years ago, everybody said it was 0.
• 14:23
  They said Bitcoin's a scam, Bitcoins, worthless bitcoins,
• 14:25
  Tulip bubbles, bitcoins, not an investable asset.
• 14:28
  It's a retail speculation. It's this high volatility, risky
• 14:32
  tech stock. It's just like the NASDAQ.
• 14:34
  That's what all these clowns were saying just four years ago.
• 14:36
  And to your point, Opti, how quickly has that Overton window
• 14:40
  changed? Year after year after year?
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  Blackrock's now at 1 to 2% Bitcoin allocations.
• 14:45
  Charles Schwab just recently in late 2024.
• 14:48
  It's not so recently anymore. Time flies when you're in
• 14:51
  Bitcoin. It's already June 2020, 95, but
• 14:53
  Charles Schwab came out again. They're a multi trillion dollar
• 14:57
  firm. They said 10% Bitcoin.
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  If you're not 10% in Bitcoin, you're getting left behind.
• 15:03
  That's their exact words. It's huge.
• 15:05
  And now we've got all of these other multi trillion dollar
• 15:08
  firms right now just kind of saying the quiet parts out loud.
• 15:12
  OK, now we're up to 40% Bitcoin allocation.
• 15:16
  Let's not forget Ricardo Salinas.
• 15:18
  Couple of years ago he got a lot of notoriety.
• 15:21
  He was Mexico's third richest man.
• 15:24
  He came out and he said, yeah, I've got like 10% of my net
• 15:26
  worth in Bitcoin. And all of a sudden this has
• 15:28
  just changed month after month, year after year.
• 15:31
  Ricardo Salinas upped his portfolio from 10% Bitcoin, 25%
• 15:35
  Bitcoin, 50% Bitcoin, most recent video, 80% Bitcoin.
• 15:40
  That's the last order about a month ago.
• 15:42
  And that is just the general trend of things that we're
• 15:44
  seeing amongst these very large, very wealthy individuals.
• 15:49
  They're accumulating as much Bitcoin as possible.
• 15:51
  And as we continue to show you guys and break it down for you
• 15:54
  guys on the weekly, the maths is just not mapping right now.
• 16:00
  OK, we've got 2.1 ish million Bitcoin on exchanges.
• 16:04
  The Giga chat Michael Saylor micro strategy holds nearly
• 16:09
  600,000 coins. They might have just got over
• 16:11
  that landmark today, actually the big old 600.
• 16:15
  And how many other companies can do that?
• 16:17
  Well, about 3 1/2 based upon how much Bitcoin is on the
• 16:20
  exchanges. So the fact that we're seeing
• 16:22
  this pivoting and this ever increasing percentage of a
• 16:27
  Bitcoin recommendation in one's portfolio, it is inevitably
• 16:31
  going to lead to what we always talk about Optium.
• 16:33
  That is the supply crunch and the supply shock.
• 16:35
  And I just think, again, it's going to happen sooner than most
• 16:38
  people think. A lot of people are like, yeah,
• 16:41
  you know, maybe $10 million Bitcoin in 30 years, 40 years,
• 16:45
  50 years. I think we're going to see it
• 16:47
  much quicker than than most people think.
• 16:49
  But what are your feelings? What's your little crystal ball
• 16:52
  telling you about this ball? Run Optium.
• 16:54
  I've been saying it for a while and it's not my crystal ball,
• 16:57
  it's my oracles, which are my crystal balls.
• 17:02
  I've been saying for I've been saying this for over a year.
• 17:05
  And I even was having a conversation with ChatGPT this
• 17:08
  morning about, you know, the Dixie strength and different
• 17:12
  currency strengths and stuff and the Trump kind of
• 17:15
  administration, their view on stuff and what's going on with
• 17:18
  Jay Powell. And you know, conservative bet
• 17:21
  was around 1:50 to 180, a $100,000.
• 17:25
  And then a more bullish scenario of all the things kind of go in
• 17:29
  our direction, which is is rate cuts, dollar index strength
• 17:33
  going down. Of course, more corporate
• 17:36
  treasury buys, more institutional FOMO and then the
• 17:39
  fabled retail FOMO that we might not ever see again because no
• 17:43
  one wants to buy Bitcoin right now, which is absolutely insane.
• 17:46
  I saw a metric this morning that's saying retail interest
• 17:49
  right now Bitcoin is at a six month low.
• 17:51
  So it's almost as low as, you know, the lowest parts of the
• 17:54
  bear market right now. And we're holding up a hunt
• 17:56
  above 100K. I've been saying for a minute,
• 17:59
  and again, if all all those things play out, I've been
• 18:01
  saying that it's probably in the 2 to $300,000 range for me.
• 18:06
  And I actually have a clip of Mark Moss kind of explaining how
• 18:09
  this works coming up right now in the culture.
• 18:11
  That's kind of been my baseline. Again, I was wrong at 100K in
• 18:15
  2021 as well. So what do I really know?
• 18:18
  But it does seem like the paradigm is shifting around
• 18:20
  Bitcoin. The sentiment is shifting around
• 18:22
  Bitcoin, and this time is like it again, I hate to be the
• 18:25
  cliche, like this time is totally different.
• 18:27
  We have a whole different breed of interest just coming into
• 18:30
  Bitcoin and I I think it's never been more important to hold
• 18:34
  Bitcoin than it is today. But for the chat, I do want to
• 18:37
  bring up the headline here. So you guys don't think that
• 18:39
  this was just AI. So this from CNBC.
• 18:42
  Of course, maybe you don't trust the legacy financial news, but
• 18:45
  you know, they, they, they don't lie that much.
• 18:48
  You know, they, they got to use some sources here and the
• 18:50
  headline is bigger Bitcoin huddle time for 10 to 40% of
• 18:55
  portfolio in crypto. And if you kind of, you know, go
• 18:58
  into this, he basically said like, if you are, you know,
• 19:02
  what's it say? If you are really a believer in
• 19:05
  Bitcoin, then obviously you should be up on the 40%, but
• 19:08
  mandatory for everyone should be at least 10%.
• 19:12
  So even if you don't believe in Bitcoin like we do, that's still
• 19:16
  a 10% minimum allocation of Bitcoin, which I think is huge.
• 19:20
  I, I remember we had the, the clip the other day of James
• 19:23
  Lavish on the show and he was basically running through the
• 19:26
  numbers that if you just put 3% of your portfolio in Bitcoin,
• 19:30
  it's going to, it's your portfolio with a 3% Bitcoin
• 19:32
  allocation would outperform anything else in the market.
• 19:35
  And now we're saying, hey, you know, minimum 10%.
• 19:39
  I think this is going to get crazy.
• 19:40
  Like we're starting to see the, the watershed moment come down,
• 19:44
  like we're starting to see the levy break where now everyone is
• 19:48
  kind of incentivized to start talking about Bitcoin having a
• 19:50
  small percentage of Bitcoin. Are we at the point where the
• 19:53
  shoeshine boy is telling you to invest in Bitcoin?
• 19:55
  No, not yet, but I think we will get there, you know, maybe by
• 19:59
  the end of the year. But we are getting to literally
• 20:03
  the best financial advisors out there, the, you know, by, by,
• 20:08
  you know, their peers, the best voted by their peers advisors
• 20:11
  out there essentially saying or rather putting their career on
• 20:14
  the risk at this point being like, look, 40%, if you believe
• 20:18
  in this asset or this new currency, this new money, 40%
• 20:21
  minimum, rather I get some to maximum.
• 20:24
  We would say, you know, 40% minimum.
• 20:26
  That's probably the starting point for us bitcoiners.
• 20:28
  But at the very least 10%, just dip your toes in it like a 10%
• 20:32
  allocation. Maybe it sounds like a lot, but
• 20:34
  that's still probably negligible in your portfolio standing right
• 20:38
  now. So I think it's going to get
• 20:40
  crazy, Luke. It's it's starting to feel like
• 20:42
  it is going to get absolutely crazy.
• 20:45
  Cheer up off the I am cheered, bro.
• 20:47
  I'm I'm cheered. I'm good.
• 20:49
  Maybe I'm one. I ran out of coffee this
• 20:51
  morning. Maybe I'm one coffee short, but
• 20:53
  I'm good, man. Life's great.
• 20:54
  Everything's good. But yeah, the best.
• 20:58
  OK, All right, chill out. The best financial advisors are
• 21:01
  Luke Ganoffie. Hey, this is not financial
• 21:03
  advice. We are just guys on the Internet
• 21:06
  talking about Bitcoin and telling you what we see
• 21:09
  happening right now. So it's all leading towards
• 21:12
  Bitcoin. It's all going towards Bitcoin
• 21:14
  as far as I'm concerned. But I don't know, Luke, should
• 21:17
  we put a pin on this one 'cause we do have a bullish show?
• 21:20
  We got a lot of good stuff for you guys today.
• 21:24
  What I will say before we move on to the juicy stuff that we've
• 21:28
  got prepped for you guys is again, I think it's very
• 21:31
  obvious. Like again, I've been around a
• 21:33
  couple cycles now. So if you Opti you can feel it
• 21:36
  when the shoes shine, boys are starting to shield Bitcoin or
• 21:40
  your Uber drivers. All of a sudden a crypto trader
• 21:43
  on the side, you can really feel and see when Bitcoin is close to
• 21:47
  a top. You don't even have to be using
• 21:50
  all of the mainstream platforms like Facebook and you know, get
• 21:55
  your normie pulse check. So to say.
• 21:57
  It's very obvious when when it is very euphoric and you kind of
• 22:01
  feel it every cycle. Last cycle in 2021, you had the
• 22:04
  NFT rise. You had everybody becoming a an
• 22:08
  artist. Everybody was all of a sudden an
• 22:10
  artist. Oh, you know, I'm here for the
• 22:11
  culture bro. Let me mint 1,000,000 Jpegs and
• 22:14
  dump them on retails head. You know it's very obvious when
• 22:18
  we are kind of close to a top or a really euphoric blow off top.
• 22:22
  2017. It was the same thing with the
• 22:23
  altcoin mania. Everybody was buying these, you
• 22:26
  know, these more useful block chains like Ethereum and all of
• 22:30
  these other trashes like IOTA and Cardano and Ripple and all
• 22:34
  this other crap. But again, I, I don't think
• 22:36
  we're anywhere near that right now to point out the, I don't
• 22:40
  think the shoeshine boys out there giving hot Bitcoin
• 22:43
  treasury tips yet. He's saying, oh, this company's
• 22:46
  put Bitcoin on the treasury. I, I'm going to go buy that one
• 22:48
  and go 100X long. I don't think we're there yet.
• 22:52
  I do think that's maybe why or why or how this cycle could look
• 22:56
  a little bit different. Again, I think an interesting
• 22:58
  narrative and thesis being put out there right now is that the
• 23:01
  Bitcoin treasury companies, this is going to be like the new meta
• 23:05
  this cycle. Again, most people are kind of
• 23:08
  used to altcoins being the the meta or the thing that
• 23:12
  outperforms Bitcoin in these speculative manias.
• 23:15
  I'm not so sure. Again, we always talk about why
• 23:18
  Bitcoins different and we always show you the reason why it's
• 23:22
  different this time is because we have large multi trillion,
• 23:25
  multi $100 billion firms and sovereign wealth funds and
• 23:30
  pension funds and billionaires buying Bitcoin.
• 23:34
  And I just don't think the billionaires are gonna log into
• 23:37
  meta mask and start using an insecure Etherium mobile wallet
• 23:43
  to start trading crap coins on something called sushi swap or
• 23:48
  pancake swap. I just don't think we're gonna
• 23:51
  see that. I think the big boys who want to
• 23:54
  get a little bit of extra juice on their Bitcoin returns, I
• 23:57
  think they're probably going to buy the stocks of these publicly
• 23:59
  traded companies. That's just my thoughts.
• 24:02
  So again, even if you're looking at the Bitcoin treasury mania
• 24:06
  that we are seeing, I kind of get a feeling that this is just
• 24:09
  the beginning of companies putting Bitcoin on the balance
• 24:11
  sheet. So this is a couple of
• 24:13
  interesting catalysts that, you know, I'm keeping a little bit
• 24:16
  of a pulse check on and having a look at, you know, where we are
• 24:20
  in this bull market. It still feels.
• 24:23
  Yeah. No, I, I'm with you 100%.
• 24:25
  I I think, you know, as much as you may not believe in the
• 24:28
  Bitcoin treasury play we're seeing, it does deliver a
• 24:33
  product to the market. A lot of these people that that
• 24:36
  are, you know, maybe not able to get Bitcoin into just spot
• 24:40
  Bitcoin or, you know, real Bitcoin, hold it directly.
• 24:43
  It's unlocking a lot of capital coming into the Bitcoin market.
• 24:47
  Obviously it's via exposure through to a Bitcoin product,
• 24:51
  but I think we are like we haven't drained that orange yet.
• 24:55
  That's still going to I think unlock a lot of capital coming
• 24:59
  into the market. I think this is maybe like you
• 25:02
  were saying, you know, Luke's he said meta, which for you guys,
• 25:06
  he's not talking about the meta stock, You know, Facebook, he's
• 25:09
  basically talking like, maybe this is the new hype cycle.
• 25:12
  Maybe this is the new arbitrage play here is people investing in
• 25:16
  these companies that are buying Bitcoin because basically they
• 25:19
  can't get their capital into Bitcoin directly.
• 25:21
  Or, you know, maybe they want a little more risk.
• 25:24
  Maybe their their appetite is for a little more risk, a little
• 25:26
  more returns. And so I don't think we've
• 25:28
  gotten to the point yet where we should fully be concerned about
• 25:31
  it. Obviously, as Bitcoiners were
• 25:33
  always, he's concerned and we're vocal about that because we want
• 25:35
  people to hold Bitcoin directly. Again, not your keys, not your
• 25:39
  Bitcoin. The same memes play out through
• 25:41
  time, but we are seeing that that is the new rage.
• 25:44
  And I think a lot of capital is going to find its way into these
• 25:47
  Bitcoin treasury companies. And is that going to take away
• 25:50
  from spot Bitcoin price? I don't think we really know
• 25:53
  yet. We we're still kind of learning
• 25:54
  throughout this process. So I hate to say it, Luke, but
• 25:58
  this time does feel different. I know I'm a broken record at
• 26:00
  this point, but this time feels way different.
• 26:05
  Absolutely. This, this cycle is going to be
• 26:07
  a completely different cycle. I mean, in 2017, people were
• 26:11
  buying Bitcoin, selling Bitcoin for a Lambo.
• 26:14
  I, I think there's an interesting comment here, Max
• 26:17
  Trotter says sack your financial advisor and learn Bitcoin.
• 26:21
  I think that's, that's going to be the, the quote UN quote
• 26:24
  narrative for this cycle. Everybody's going to come to the
• 26:27
  realization that they need to understand Bitcoin.
• 26:30
  And I think as we're going to show you guys in the latter part
• 26:32
  of today's show, literally people at the highest powers,
• 26:37
  that people highest up in government, leaders of
• 26:40
  governments right now are coming to the realization that they
• 26:44
  also need to not only learn Bitcoin, but create favorable
• 26:48
  Bitcoin environments with the rules and the regulations they
• 26:51
  push down. I don't wanna open that rabbit
• 26:53
  hole yet, but we've got some. Yeah, yeah, man, I think some
• 26:57
  huge news might be upon us. Anyways, guys, of course I wanna
• 27:00
  remind you guys to smash the like button comment on this show
• 27:04
  if we're just too bull tarted or not.
• 27:05
  And of course, hit the subscribe button because we're dropping a
• 27:08
  bunch of content for you guys on YouTube.
• 27:11
  Of course, the live show goes on Monday through Friday.
• 27:13
  And then we got Ruston, Dante, Ocean, all kinds of content for
• 27:17
  you guys. And before I move on, I do want
• 27:19
  to give a huge shout out to our partners over at the Bitcoin.
• 27:21
  Well, go to bitcoinwell.com/simply BTC and
• 27:26
  sign up to Bitcoin. Well, make sure you use products
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  have three chances to win a million SAT.
• 27:58
  If you go into the wishing well, toss a coin and you have a
• 28:02
  chance to win a million sets. On that note, guys, let's get
• 28:06
  into the show because we got some stuff here.
• 28:08
  Mark Moss is going to explain how we get to 200 K.
• 28:11
  We have some interesting news coming out of Washington DC and
• 28:14
  then of course, in the culture. I have Luke here and I might
• 28:18
  have an interesting chart explaining why the Bitcoin price
• 28:21
  isn't going up as much as we want.
• 28:23
  Of course, Luke's gonna probably counter this a little bit, but
• 28:26
  we'll we'll have a good debate here today.
• 28:28
  All right, guys, let's get into the numbers.
• 28:37
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• 29:59
  today. Alrighty then guys, we're over
• 30:06
  here on Clark Moody's dashboard. Of course, looking at the
• 30:09
  Bitcoin numbers, the current Bitcoin price is $107,660 per
• 30:14
  Bitcoin. Holding pretty good, not gonna
• 30:16
  lie. Stats per dollar, AKA how much
• 30:17
  Bitcoin you can buy for a single dollar, AKA how much the dollar
• 30:20
  is worth in Bitcoin is currently at 929.
• 30:23
  Stats per dollar, the block height is 903,419.
• 30:28
  The market cap in Fiat terms is 2.14 trillion.
• 30:31
  And look, we are inching towards 10% of the gold market cap
• 30:34
  currently at 9.26. And you know, realized monetary
• 30:37
  inflation taking Fiat currencies to school is at .84%.
• 30:41
  And we're just -3.9% from all time high.
• 30:44
  And yet, but people are extremely bearish out there.
• 30:48
  You know, big corners are hilarious.
• 30:50
  Just how bearish we get. It's like, you know, 100K was
• 30:52
  cool for like a day and now I'm just like, do something.
• 30:56
  Can you pump? Anyways, on that note, we have
• 30:58
  this clip from Mark Moss. He was on Kitco News and he is
• 31:02
  explaining, well, probably what everyone is wondering, how does
• 31:05
  Bitcoin get to 200 K? What are the factors?
• 31:08
  When is this happening? Again, everyone wants to know
• 31:11
  what the price is doing this year, not in 1020 years from
• 31:14
  now. We all know what it's doing in
• 31:15
  20 years, you know it's going up forever, but what are the
• 31:18
  possibilities of Bitcoin hitting, you know, A23X from
• 31:21
  here? Well, Mark Moss explains this
• 31:24
  and we'll chat about it. And so we've seen the the rise
• 31:28
  of the price going along with this pump, if you will.
• 31:30
  I think the question that maybe you're asking is like how much
• 31:33
  further can it go? What are we expecting from this
• 31:35
  cycle? And what we can see is that a
• 31:38
  lot of people think that we haven't gotten the price
• 31:40
  appreciation, even though to the point that you're making, the
• 31:43
  ETS are having these big flows and the corporations are buying
• 31:46
  massive amounts of Bitcoin, although it did go from 40 to
• 31:49
  110. But what we're seeing Bitcoin is
• 31:52
  very unique compared to other financial assets.
• 31:54
  One thing that's very unique about Bitcoin is we can see on
• 31:57
  chain data, all right? So it makes it very transparent.
• 32:00
  And So what we can see is that we can see all the wallets that
• 32:04
  are holding bitcoins that haven't moved in a certain time
• 32:07
  frame. So we look at all the Bitcoin
• 32:08
  that have not moved in the last one to five years.
• 32:11
  We call these Hodel waves. People that are holding Bitcoin
• 32:13
  for long periods of time and people that have been holding it
• 32:16
  between one and five years are now starting to take long term
• 32:20
  profit. So over the last three months
• 32:22
  we've seen about 240,000 Bitcoin be moved from long term wallets
• 32:27
  into the market 240. So it's been matching the amount
• 32:31
  of selling has been matching the inflows from the ETFs and the
• 32:34
  treasury companies. So that's that's sort of what's
• 32:37
  been keeping the price right here.
• 32:39
  But here's what sort of history tells us that there's
• 32:42
  potentially a supply squeeze coming.
• 32:45
  Because what we can see, again, looking at on chain data is we
• 32:48
  can see the amount of selling coming from these wallets is
• 32:50
  diminishing pretty quickly right now based off of past instances.
• 32:55
  When we've looked through several cycles looking at the
• 32:58
  amount of coins that have moved and the selling slowing down, we
• 33:02
  have seen Bitcoin double within months in a similar set up to
• 33:06
  this. So as long as we can see the ETF
• 33:08
  flows continuing and the treasury companies continue to
• 33:11
  acquire at about the same rate they have been and we can see
• 33:14
  the supply is dwindling pretty quickly, I think we could see
• 33:17
  Bitcoin double from here in a few months.
• 33:19
  OK, Luke, I think this is right up your alley, and I just
• 33:24
  brought up the hot waves chart so you guys can visualize this
• 33:27
  for yourself. This is on Bitcoin Magazine Pro.
• 33:30
  It's a free chart. You can see the hot waves.
• 33:32
  And of course, you guys know I'm colorblind, so I'm not gonna try
• 33:35
  to explain these colors to you here.
• 33:38
  But Luke, he did mention one of your favorite things here, you
• 33:42
  know, the mother of all supply shocks.
• 33:44
  He was mentioning the Bitcoin on exchanges.
• 33:47
  He was mentioning the sellers kind of matching what the
• 33:50
  corporate treasury is buying. And at a certain point this has
• 33:54
  to RIP. So what's your thoughts on here,
• 33:56
  Mark Moss? And you know, what's the
• 33:58
  viability of of his correction being correct?
• 34:01
  Is it a non zero chance? Yeah, I mean, Mark's the man.
• 34:06
  So firstly, I had the pleasure of catching up with him again
• 34:10
  last week and interviewing him again.
• 34:12
  But yeah, I think he makes a good point.
• 34:14
  Like when you see what we're seeing when it comes to the
• 34:18
  hollow waves and the whales, Bitcoin typically pumps
• 34:21
  aggressively. You can see this in the
• 34:23
  accumulation and the number of Bitcoin bought by whales leading
• 34:28
  into each bull run typically. Again, I know there's many
• 34:32
  respected on chain analysts who I call friends who disagree with
• 34:36
  me. They think, oh don't whale
• 34:38
  watch, whale watching is a bad idea.
• 34:40
  I disagree. I think if you look at every
• 34:42
  halving year, whether it's 20/16/2020, the big boys are
• 34:46
  always accumulating before the bull run takes off and we've
• 34:50
  seen that again today. We're seeing the whales and the
• 34:53
  big boys accumulating Bitcoin before it takes off.
• 34:57
  I think that's what Mark was referring to in that clip when
• 35:00
  talking about the huddle waves to the other part of the
• 35:03
  equation. I personally haven't found any
• 35:06
  correlation between short term supply shocks and short term
• 35:11
  price action and price pumps. This is something that I always
• 35:15
  agree with my good friend Giovanni about.
• 35:19
  Giovanni, I don't know how, but he assumes that when I'm talking
• 35:23
  about the supply shock, I'm saying that is what's going to
• 35:26
  break the power law model, and it is, but just not in the short
• 35:29
  term. So when I talk about the mother
• 35:32
  of all supply shocks, I'm stepping out big picture.
• 35:36
  And I'm saying when that trend of Bitcoin leaving the exchanges
• 35:39
  exhausts and we finally see zero Bitcoin on the exchanges, that
• 35:44
  is when you're going to see the mother of all supply shocks.
• 35:48
  And that is the moment that I think it's most likely that we
• 35:52
  break all of these ridiculous models that claim to predict the
• 35:56
  price of Bitcoin using faulty data in the past.
• 35:59
  So again, that's kind of like in the short term, I haven't
• 36:02
  actually seen any, you know, good correlation showing coins
• 36:06
  leaving the exchanges has a big impact on price.
• 36:09
  I I think coins leaving the exchanges, it doesn't actually
• 36:13
  aggressively push the price up because the reason why coins are
• 36:17
  leaving the exchanges is because we have sophisticated actors in
• 36:20
  the market. They are DCA ING.
• 36:23
  They are not buying a billion dollars of Bitcoin in one hit,
• 36:26
  smashing the the big green buy button, then methodically
• 36:30
  deploying Bitcoin into the market, and then methodically
• 36:33
  ripping Bitcoin off the exchanges using like these
• 36:37
  little AI algorithms that is making thousands of
• 36:40
  transactions, thousands of little tiny $1000 and $10,000
• 36:44
  buyers every single day trying not to create slippage to move
• 36:49
  the market. This is why we're seeing coins
• 36:52
  consistently leave the exchanges for the past five years and This
• 36:56
  is why we haven't seen this big godly God candle yet because the
• 37:01
  actors in the market, they've been very methodical with how
• 37:05
  they strip the Bitcoin out of the market.
• 37:07
  So again, there's a lot there to unpack Opti, but what are your
• 37:10
  thoughts on, you know, you know, supply shocks, you know, huddle
• 37:15
  waves? I do think we could see, you
• 37:17
  know, $200,000 Bitcoin in the next three to six months.
• 37:20
  I don't ever make short term price predictions, but I think
• 37:23
  that's, you know, I'm pretty pretty standard play, you know,
• 37:26
  we're going to see those price levels, but I don't think that
• 37:28
  is because of a supply shock. I just think this.
• 37:32
  Is yeah. I mean, I do like the meme of a
• 37:34
  mother of all supply shocks. I think it will happen
• 37:37
  eventually. I've been kind of going back and
• 37:41
  forth with the idea of exchanges running out of Bitcoin.
• 37:45
  I'm kind of taking the opposite view.
• 37:47
  Like I think Simply put, there will always be Bitcoin to be
• 37:52
  sold at any price. That's just like the basic
• 37:54
  heuristic. But once you kind of explain,
• 37:57
  yeah, that's probably the case. But also, you know, fewer
• 38:00
  Bitcoin on exchange probably means that the value of those
• 38:03
  bitcoins are an incredible, you know, price range right now.
• 38:07
  And so when we talk about it in that sense, and I do think that
• 38:10
  that there may be something there.
• 38:12
  Obviously I'm, I'm a simple, you know, Austrian economist type
• 38:18
  person. I just keep it simple.
• 38:20
  It's demand and supply economics playing out pure and simple.
• 38:24
  If the price is going down, then there's more sellers and buyers.
• 38:27
  If the price is going up, there's more buyers and sellers.
• 38:29
  Again, there's only 21 million in Bitcoin.
• 38:32
  There's probably, you know, a lot less being trade.
• 38:34
  We know it's around 2 million. Who knows how much of that
• 38:37
  Bitcoin is going to be unlocked at certain prices, but I think
• 38:40
  it's just simply demand and supply.
• 38:41
  And right now, as much as we are all getting caught up in the
• 38:45
  different news stories and the new hype trends, I think it's
• 38:49
  just very simple. There's just not that many
• 38:50
  people wanting to buy Bitcoin right now.
• 38:52
  And I and I always joke about it on the show in person.
• 38:55
  It's like if Bitcoiners were better at orange peeling, this
• 38:58
  price would already be at $1,000,000 per coin minimum.
• 39:01
  But you know, everyone is not that good at orange peeling.
• 39:04
  That's just, that's just the basics of this because we get
• 39:07
  into all of the different monetary theory, all the nuance
• 39:10
  here versus trying to find ways to explain this to people that
• 39:14
  solve problems like keep it simple.
• 39:16
  People want to avoid being poor. The best way to avoid being poor
• 39:20
  is saving in Bitcoin. It's a very simple proposition.
• 39:23
  You don't have to get into monetary theory or you know,
• 39:26
  central banks, Oregon, Bretton Woods, Oregon, the creation of
• 39:29
  the Federal Reserve. It's just like, hey, man, is
• 39:31
  life getting hard? Is it harder for you to pay your
• 39:34
  bills? Are you working more and still
• 39:37
  treading water? I have this Bitcoin thing for
• 39:39
  you. It's it's pretty simple sell.
• 39:41
  But Luke, you did bring up power law and I was I was kind of
• 39:44
  debating whether we should pull this on the show.
• 39:47
  But we are kind of talking about the, you know, the price
• 39:49
  speculations for this year where we are in the cycle.
• 39:52
  And I did see this chart here. And you know, let's just add a
• 39:55
  little more hope you I'm in here today before we we really start
• 39:58
  talking about some news. What's your thoughts on this
• 40:02
  chart right here? And it's quoted as saying you
• 40:05
  waited four years for these next four months and the therapist
• 40:08
  goes euphoria is coming. So for the audio listeners, this
• 40:11
  is a Bitcoin power curve cycle cloud and it's got the Bitcoin
• 40:15
  price, the power curve support the five years ahead.
• 40:18
  You know, it's got some speculations and we have a four
• 40:21
  year cloud of minimum and Max and then the four year cycles
• 40:25
  mean of what it did in the past. And you can see here or rather
• 40:29
  for you guys an audio they can't see here.
• 40:32
  It's you know, it's looking like what mid 200 to potentially
• 40:37
  right under 300K here. So Luke, I know you like some
• 40:42
  some charts that confirm your buys here, and I know you're not
• 40:46
  the biggest power law guy, but what do we know about the power
• 40:48
  curve? Geez, what do I say about this?
• 40:55
  The power curve this is getting more ridiculous by the day.
• 40:59
  We're going from power law to power opinions to quantile
• 41:03
  models. So now we've got power curve
• 41:06
  cloud cycles. Insane.
• 41:09
  I think it's again, I, I think I, I love the fact that us as
• 41:14
  bitcoiners are trying to educate new people again, let's, let's,
• 41:19
  that's my base assumption. I love anybody who's trying to
• 41:22
  increase adoption of Bitcoin. Love it.
• 41:25
  The thing I don't love is people saying, hey, buy into my Patreon
• 41:30
  group where I'm going to teach you how to trade these power law
• 41:35
  models. Because not only is this just a
• 41:38
  hypothesis of what I think it might happen with Bitcoin this
• 41:42
  cycle, but this model that I've created, it's blessed.
• 41:46
  It is math and science. I'm a PhD physicist, so it
• 41:49
  cannot be wrong and it can never be challenged.
• 41:52
  And anybody who challenges it has to have a PhD in XYZ to be
• 41:57
  able to challenge it. That's what I'm not a fan of.
• 42:00
  I don't like the fact that people are holding these models
• 42:03
  up as gospel and saying they are 100% correct because they've
• 42:07
  been correct until today. That's the dangerous thing.
• 42:10
  That's the dangerous part that I like to try to RIP down, so to
• 42:14
  say and shed some light on because it's not a popular
• 42:17
  opinion to say that a model predicting $300,000 Bitcoin in
• 42:21
  four months is wrong. It's not popular.
• 42:23
  Again, it's we, we've seen how people have just blown up their
• 42:27
  Twitter accounts and they're following by just saying, I love
• 42:30
  a power law. I love a power law.
• 42:31
  It, it gets clicks, it gets views.
• 42:33
  But again, I, I, I don't care about those things.
• 42:36
  I care about actually educating people and making sure that
• 42:39
  people don't get wrecked by these models.
• 42:42
  A lot of people got wrecked by Stop to Flow in 2021, 288 K in
• 42:47
  2021. It's math, and this wasn't math
• 42:50
  and science, but a lot of people were saying, look, it's gonna
• 42:52
  happen. And again, I was bullish.
• 42:53
  I did think Bitcoin would have done a lot more in that 2021
• 42:57
  cycle than it did, don't get me wrong.
• 42:59
  But I certainly wasn't trying to scam people into buying my
• 43:03
  private products and my trading genius to profiteer off of these
• 43:08
  models. And that's what I think is
• 43:09
  dangerous. So again, I do think Bitcoin is
• 43:11
  going to going to the hundreds of thousands of dollars in the
• 43:14
  next 6 to 12 months. But it's not because of some
• 43:17
  model, OK, What's the more important thing about these
• 43:20
  models is group psychology. So if everybody is thinking in
• 43:24
  their mind, OK, Bitcoin is worth $300,000 next year, I'm not
• 43:29
  selling it until we get there. Like again, there's a little bit
• 43:32
  of this is just typically how markets work.
• 43:35
  A lot of people in Bitcoin are not selling their coins for 203
• 43:38
  hundred or 400 or 500,000 cutbacks.
• 43:40
  It's as simple as that. And I think a lot of people are
• 43:42
  aware of how Bitcoin works in these cycles.
• 43:45
  So again, I do think it's a good probability that Bitcoin runs up
• 43:49
  pretty aggressively to something like 2, three, $400,000 the next
• 43:53
  cycle. And we do have a little bit of a
• 43:54
  cool off period. Again, I'm not sure it's going
• 43:57
  to look the same as previous cycles.
• 43:59
  I'm less certain of that by the day, but I do think we're in for
• 44:04
  a pretty good run over the next 6 or 12 months.
• 44:06
  And that's purely because supply and demand economics continue
• 44:10
  doing what they're doing. The fundamentals of Bitcoin get
• 44:12
  stronger by the day and the more that we do see this supply shock
• 44:17
  exacerbate itself into and throughout the Bitcoin market,
• 44:21
  the higher probabilities that I put on Bitcoin actually breaking
• 44:25
  these cycles of your power curve cycle clouds and you know, the
• 44:29
  power law opinion and all of these other things.
• 44:32
  Again, I think we're about fifty 6065% chance that we break these
• 44:36
  models to the upside visible run again, could be wrong, 50 to 60%
• 44:40
  chance. This is how I feel.
• 44:42
  That's just how I think the odds are if I were to lift the old
• 44:46
  finger and stick it in the air. That's how I think the the winds
• 44:49
  are feeling, so to say right now.
• 44:51
  But again, my my probabilities or you know, thoughts on what's
• 44:55
  going to happen. It's always changing.
• 44:57
  It's always evolving. And again, like I always say,
• 44:59
  whenever we're talking about price update, nobody knows where
• 45:02
  the price of Bitcoin's going in the shorter or medium term,
• 45:04
  especially me, this crazy kid with a wild haircut.
• 45:06
  I have no idea. So don't listen to me.
• 45:08
  All I'm gonna say is don't listen to anyone.
• 45:11
  Anybody who tells you they know exactly where the price is
• 45:13
  going, they're a liar. They're probably, they're fraud.
• 45:16
  They're trying to take your victim.
• 45:17
  Yeah, 100% All we do now is don't trade just stacks ads.
• 45:21
  Take it in the cold storage. You're going to be good.
• 45:24
  I do have a super chat in here Shout out the Mexico hoto.
• 45:27
  I can't actually read this, but Bitcoin and tacos equal
• 45:30
  happiness. Thank you for the 10 bucks, bro.
• 45:32
  All right Ethan, on that note, let's get to the news coming out
• 45:39
  of Washington. If this takes place, this would
• 45:44
  be a huge win for the Bitcoin space.
• 45:46
  I'm I'm really pushing for what's about to happen.
• 45:48
  So we'll go through the saga. Let's get into that.
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• 48:21
  All righty then guys, again, like I said, we are starting to
• 48:25
  see I think some bullish stuff coming out of the Washington
• 48:30
  administration, the Trump administration, you know, some
• 48:32
  things coming out of Washington DC.
• 48:33
  Obviously we all know Trump got elected and and we could
• 48:37
  probably say it because of the Bitcoiners or rather the crypto
• 48:40
  people and his push for the adoption of Bitcoin.
• 48:43
  He's been saying we're going to make this America the Bitcoin
• 48:46
  superpower of the world. And of course, you know, he's
• 48:49
  done, he's done the strategic Bitcoin reserve.
• 48:51
  He's basically we got a new SEC head that is more pro Bitcoin.
• 48:55
  We've seen all of the institutions kind of start to
• 48:58
  pivot around Bitcoin. There's a lot of things.
• 49:01
  The regulations seem to be easing up where there's, you
• 49:03
  know, stablecoin legislation going through.
• 49:07
  The stablecoin bill is supposedly going to be done by
• 49:09
  July, At least that's what Scott Besson said this morning.
• 49:12
  There's a lot of things that are building around Bitcoin right
• 49:16
  now in America that I think are extremely bullish.
• 49:19
  But if this happens, I think this might be the most bullish
• 49:23
  thing that we've seen come out of the Trump administration
• 49:26
  around Bitcoin. And I've said this before, if
• 49:28
  this does take place, then let's put them on the Mount Rushmore
• 49:31
  at this point. But what am I talking about
• 49:33
  here? I have a tweet.
• 49:34
  This was the 27th. So what is that?
• 49:36
  Is that Friday, I think this was Friday.
• 49:39
  David Bailey tweets and goes, we are at the finish line of
• 49:41
  getting de minimis Bitcoin transactions under $600.00 cap
• 49:45
  gains free and ending double taxation on mining and staking
• 49:49
  in the big beautiful bill. This might be our only shot at
• 49:52
  this for a while. Today and tomorrow, call or
• 49:54
  e-mail your senator and make sure they know how much you
• 49:57
  support this. If you are a major donor, reach
• 50:00
  out to your point of contact and let them know.
• 50:02
  It's so, so close. Just needs one extra push.
• 50:04
  And then he says, when I say we, I mean the tireless bitcoiners
• 50:07
  on the hill actively making this happen.
• 50:09
  And he's just a megaphone for this.
• 50:11
  So he does do another update and it goes update looking like this
• 50:15
  will be added to the big beautiful bill via an amendment
• 50:18
  now. And this was the following
• 50:19
  today. Earliest vote would be tomorrow
• 50:21
  night. So that would have been
• 50:22
  yesterday. And we only need 4051 votes.
• 50:25
  Republicans hold 53 seats. Call your senator, tell them
• 50:28
  it's life or death for you metaphorically and tag them in a
• 50:31
  tweet. Hit their inbox.
• 50:32
  Win, win, win. And then of course, some
• 50:35
  Bitcoiners kind of responding. We have Adam Baggy says like and
• 50:38
  reposted because we all want to see capital gains eliminated on
• 50:42
  Bitcoin. It is money you don't you don't
• 50:44
  pay capital gains if you're you know, trading from one currency
• 50:47
  to the other currency, from a weak currency to strong
• 50:49
  currency. And Adam back goes further and
• 50:52
  he goes, this is the way. Just no cap gains on Bitcoin at
• 50:54
  all. Not this weak soft exempt on
• 50:57
  small limit lately news and then doubling down this morning and
• 51:02
  we got Ellen O'terrett, who is a, you know, journalist in ho
• 51:05
  she she was working at Fox. She's actually been doing a lot
• 51:08
  of really good work lately. I, I highly suggest that you
• 51:11
  follow her on Twitter. She does have some really good
• 51:13
  breaking news and she goes scoop amendments to the OBBB, the big
• 51:17
  beautiful bill regarding crypto taxes are still on the table
• 51:19
  today as of Monday, despite some last minute disagreements on
• 51:23
  Sunday. I'm hearing the White House has
• 51:25
  gotten wind of this and is pushing for inclusion of Senator
• 51:28
  Lummits's language in the final bill.
• 51:30
  And then of course, you know, Dennis, orders going out saying
• 51:33
  massive who we could see cap gains exemption and the end of
• 51:36
  double taxation on mining rewards.
• 51:38
  It's working again, continuing to push to talk to your
• 51:41
  senators. And then we got this morning,
• 51:43
  rather right before the show, we had Senator Lummus say America
• 51:48
  leads in financial innovation. And thanks to President Trump,
• 51:51
  we are keeping it that way. I'm working on the big beautiful
• 51:53
  bill amendment to ensure Americans can use digital assets
• 51:56
  without fear of tax violations. More to come soon and then here
• 52:02
  actually there was a good thread here.
• 52:04
  I'm not going to read it here, but I'll drop it in the chat for
• 52:06
  you guys if you want to kind of, you know, game shop what's going
• 52:09
  on with capital gains and around Bitcoin.
• 52:12
  Now, as a bitcoiner, I've obviously said for a while, if
• 52:16
  capital gains got eliminated around Bitcoin, that would be
• 52:20
  huge for the Bitcoin industry. That might be the biggest thing
• 52:23
  that could possibly happen for not just the industry, but
• 52:26
  rather for more as us as individuals so that we can use
• 52:30
  Bitcoin and Bitcoin will start circulating the the fabled
• 52:33
  circular economy will finally start to take place.
• 52:36
  We won't be treated as criminals because we want to use the
• 52:38
  better money. Now, obviously this is still
• 52:41
  getting pushed through. This is still kind of on it
• 52:44
  still needs to get passed through the finish line here.
• 52:47
  But you know me, I'm not the biggest political guy.
• 52:52
  As far as the big beautiful bill, I know it needed, I know
• 52:55
  Nico would be here and be like it needs to get pushed through.
• 52:58
  From my perspective, from my vantage point, it just sounds
• 53:00
  like a lot of spending coming out of Washington, DC, which on
• 53:04
  one hand, you know is going to drive your Bitcoin up.
• 53:07
  On the other, it's going to really make your friends and
• 53:09
  family probably poor if they don't have Bitcoin.
• 53:12
  So, you know, I'm conflicted around the whole big beautiful
• 53:14
  bill in general. I know the Thomas Massie's been
• 53:18
  going around and saying it's, you know, pork filled and
• 53:20
  there's a lot of things in there that you know, are really
• 53:23
  unnecessary and they're trying to pass a lot of things and jam
• 53:26
  a lot of things through that bill.
• 53:28
  But on that note, if you know, capital gains do get eliminated
• 53:34
  around Bitcoin and this happens like now, I think that is huge
• 53:39
  for us as individuals, for us as a Bitcoin business, for the
• 53:42
  whole Bitcoin industry. And it really is a trend that I
• 53:46
  was kind of hinting on last week.
• 53:48
  We had some politicians come out and essentially say that, hey,
• 53:52
  you know, how America could lead to become the Bitcoin industry
• 53:55
  or superpower of the world is if they followed Singapore.
• 53:58
  And remember I mentioned one of the things that Singapore does
• 54:01
  is again, no cap gains on Bitcoin.
• 54:04
  We're seeing some states kind of push through eliminating capital
• 54:06
  gains on a state level. So I think this would be huge if
• 54:10
  we can get this through. I, you know, I will hold myself
• 54:13
  to it and I and we'll, we'll petition for Trump to be on
• 54:17
  Mount Rushmore as the greatest Bitcoin president ever.
• 54:20
  Say what you will about a shit cornery here if he eliminates
• 54:23
  capital gains tax. Like, you know, we've seen it.
• 54:26
  We've seen the Czech Republic do this.
• 54:28
  Like with this isn't a precedent being set here because we've
• 54:32
  seen other nations do this, but this would be absolutely huge
• 54:36
  for Bitcoin around the world because now it would mean other
• 54:39
  countries would follow suit if we can eliminate capital gains
• 54:43
  right now, You know, shout out to senator, alumnus David
• 54:46
  Bailey, even Dennis Porter out there.
• 54:49
  Like if we can get this through, if this happens now, honestly,
• 54:54
  I, I can't complain about Trump anymore.
• 54:56
  Like print all the money you want, pump our assets, bro,
• 54:59
  eliminate capital gains and I'm cool as a Bitcoiner.
• 55:04
  I really want to see this push through though, like Adam Back
• 55:07
  said, not this de minimis, you know, under 600K or sorry
• 55:11
  $600.00 like just eliminated outright.
• 55:14
  But you know, I'll, I'll take like maybe, you know, we can
• 55:17
  maybe take the like 10K travel law around cash.
• 55:20
  Like, you know, 600's still a little low as far as I'm
• 55:23
  concerned. Like you can't pay your rent.
• 55:26
  Like, let me just pay rent in Bitcoin and not have to worry
• 55:28
  about anything. And I think I'll be kinda cool
• 55:31
  with it. Like, that'd be fine.
• 55:32
  That'd be great for me. So on a personal level, I have
• 55:36
  some caveats on what's gonna get passed through, but I think this
• 55:39
  is a good baby step towards where I think the world is
• 55:42
  headed. An elimination of capital gains
• 55:45
  on Bitcoin shouts at the senator.
• 55:47
  Let's hope this gets pushed through again for a couple of
• 55:50
  times. I'm rooting for politicians to
• 55:52
  push some good Bitcoin legislations.
• 55:54
  And this is the thing on my list.
• 55:57
  Forget the strategic Bitcoin reserve.
• 55:59
  Eliminate cap gains on Bitcoin and you know, like I won't even
• 56:03
  care if they don't do a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
• 56:05
  They've already done enough as far as I'm concerned.
• 56:07
  So I don't know, that's my take on this.
• 56:09
  Luke, what's your thoughts on this?
• 56:10
  I know we kind of briefly touched on this before the show.
• 56:13
  You're like, yeah, are we talking about?
• 56:14
  I'm like, of course, we're talking about that today.
• 56:16
  So let's see if this goes through.
• 56:20
  I think this is huge. And you know, for you guys that
• 56:22
  believe in the the democratic process here, you know, get on
• 56:26
  the phone call. Let let's let's let's start
• 56:28
  bombarding these senators here and let's get this pushed
• 56:31
  through anyways. Go, Luke.
• 56:35
  Yeah, I mean, I, it's really interesting.
• 56:37
  If Trump continues doing what he is doing, I might need to add a
• 56:41
  little bit of a caveat to my general rule of thumb, which is
• 56:45
  right now I will refuse to live in any Western countries for the
• 56:49
  next 5 or 10 years because it's my base case that most of these
• 56:53
  Western countries, they're going to come for your Bitcoin,
• 56:55
  unrealized capital gains taxes, citizenship based taxation.
• 57:00
  All of this is being talked about in France, big G7 nation,
• 57:04
  Canada, another huge G20 nation and Australia.
• 57:08
  It looks as if the West is going one way when it comes to taxes
• 57:13
  and attacking Bitcoin. Was it Italy who doubled the
• 57:18
  capital? Gain No, I think, I think that
• 57:19
  was was it Italy or France? I I forget.
• 57:22
  I'll, I'll try to look it up right now, but keep going.
• 57:25
  Oops, wrong one. Yeah.
• 57:27
  A lot of these, now there you go.
• 57:29
  A lot of these European countries have been attacking
• 57:33
  Bitcoin and increasing their taxes on Bitcoin.
• 57:36
  And I think it's really interesting that maybe America's
• 57:39
  going to go the other way. So again, this could be like the
• 57:43
  big flipping in right here or the big fork in the path of the
• 57:46
  West is America goes. By.
• 57:51
  There we go. My my memory's not completely
• 57:54
  shot at 7:39 at night. So yeah, I think it's
• 57:58
  interesting. Europe's going one way,
• 58:00
  America's going the other way. I think this is going to be
• 58:02
  really a telltale sign of what's going to happen over the next 10
• 58:07
  or 20 years. I think it's interesting that
• 58:09
  the Middle East keeps trying to maybe realign itself with
• 58:13
  America. Recently, Saudi Arabia and the
• 58:16
  UAE invested multiple trillions of dollars into America after
• 58:21
  got elected as president. Is this a little bit of a pivot?
• 58:24
  Is the Middle East coming back to realign itself with America
• 58:29
  and maybe a Bitcoin back the dollar?
• 58:32
  Potentially, yes, that would be really interesting to see
• 58:35
  because they did look as if they were going to go the BRICS
• 58:38
  direction or join the China, Russia, India kind of trade
• 58:43
  bloc. So again, really interesting.
• 58:45
  I think if America introduces, you know, tax free capital gains
• 58:49
  exemptions on Bitcoin, this would be another huge signpost
• 58:52
  that Trump is definitely moving things in the right direction
• 58:55
  and kind of going the other way that the globalists are going in
• 59:00
  Europe. So certainly interesting.
• 59:02
  I've got my popcorn ready at home, just back and just
• 59:05
  watching it all well. Luke the chat wants to know if
• 59:09
  America does push this through, will Australia ever follow?
• 59:16
  Oh, it's really interesting. Australia is such like a, it's
• 59:21
  such a flip floppy country when it comes to Australia.
• 59:24
  It's really like at the moment the big banks are banning people
• 59:28
  from sending money from their bank accounts to exchanges to
• 59:32
  buy Bitcoin. This has been happening for
• 59:34
  multiple years. But then on the flip side, like
• 59:37
  we've seen adoption, we've got an ETF in the country.
• 59:40
  So predicting what Australia's going to do is probably one of
• 59:44
  the toughest things in the world to do after they, you know,
• 59:47
  showed their hand back in 2020 and 2021 and 2022 with all of
• 59:52
  the tyrannical decisions that the government made back then.
• 59:56
  But so yeah, who knows what the Australian government's?
• 59:58
  Going to do. Sounds like you're never going
• 1:00:00
  back to that island. All glorious years and I still
• 1:00:10
  haven't. Let's go, Chad, move, Chad,
• 1:00:12
  move. All right.
• 1:00:13
  Before we move on though, shuts out the Ron P.
• 1:00:15
  I don't I don't know what this comment is referring to, but
• 1:00:18
  thanks for the $10 super chat. And he goes because I am not
• 1:00:21
  Mike. I actually support the channel.
• 1:00:24
  I don't know what the reference is, but yeah, you know, shout
• 1:00:27
  out the Ron P don't be like Mike for once, don't be like Mike.
• 1:00:31
  All right guys, let's get into the culture.
• 1:00:35
  I got a a good tweet here and and I'm glad I have Luke here
• 1:00:38
  today because I'm pretty sure we might debate this topic a little
• 1:00:41
  bit here. It's the question, why is the
• 1:00:44
  price going? So who is selling the Bitcoin?
• 1:00:47
  Well, it looks like we got some on chain data showing us where
• 1:00:51
  the Bitcoin is coming from. So let's get into it.
• 1:00:55
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  Casa dot IO All right guys, so let me just put a little bit of
• 1:02:42
  context to this. I think you guys have heard me
• 1:02:44
  talk about Charles Edwards before on the show.
• 1:02:48
  This is his Twitter account capriole IO he's got a great
• 1:02:51
  website, itscapriole.com/charts a lot of really good charts on
• 1:02:56
  there. If you again, if you're trying
• 1:02:58
  to wrap your head around what's going on in the markets you want
• 1:03:01
  some real time metrics again, I'm you know not not he might I
• 1:03:04
  don't know if he's got a trading group or what, but you can like
• 1:03:06
  buy the charts. I don't know what's going on,
• 1:03:08
  but he's got some good free charts that I, I really, really
• 1:03:10
  enjoy. And he also is a head of his own
• 1:03:13
  investment fund and he's been doing really, really good data
• 1:03:17
  here for, for everyone out there, you know, for free.
• 1:03:19
  And, and our boy CJ Constantinos, Hopefully I said
• 1:03:22
  your last name correctly, bro. He kind of credits him as being
• 1:03:27
  his mentor. And so ever since CJ kind of
• 1:03:29
  told me about him a few years ago, maybe like 2 years ago by
• 1:03:32
  now, I follow him on Twitter and he always gives some really good
• 1:03:35
  updates. And of course, me and Luke have
• 1:03:37
  been going back and forth. We'll probably go back and
• 1:03:39
  forth. Right now everyone is asking the
• 1:03:41
  same question. Look, I get it, Bitcoins going
• 1:03:44
  to a million in whatever 20 years or something, 5,000,010
• 1:03:48
  million in 20 years. But like what's going on with
• 1:03:50
  the price right now? Why, why can't we break 100K?
• 1:03:53
  Why can't we break the all time high of what?
• 1:03:56
  Was it like 116 or what, 112? I forget what it is now.
• 1:04:00
  Well, Charles dropped these charts here.
• 1:04:04
  Let me see the date it is what was that yesterday?
• 1:04:09
  And I'll try to explain the chart for the audio listeners
• 1:04:12
  here, But I'm going to read his Twitter and then me and Luke
• 1:04:14
  will kind of, you know, talk about this.
• 1:04:16
  But the reason I'm bringing this up is because this is kind of
• 1:04:18
  the sentiment or the vibe that I'm getting.
• 1:04:20
  Again, you know, there's the, the metric that Luke loves the
• 1:04:24
  the Bitcoin exchanges are getting freaking drained of
• 1:04:27
  Bitcoin. But this is kind of my vibe
• 1:04:30
  right here. And I did do an interview with
• 1:04:33
  CJ over the weekend. I think we're going to post it
• 1:04:35
  on Saturday. He kind of explains what he
• 1:04:37
  think is going on with the quote price manipulation is that now
• 1:04:41
  the institutions are here and they're not really going long on
• 1:04:44
  spot Bitcoin. There is interest in spot
• 1:04:48
  Bitcoin, of course, through ETFs and corporate treasuries and,
• 1:04:51
  and just buying the Bitcoin itself for the ETFs.
• 1:04:53
  But what they, you don't see on the back end is that they are
• 1:04:56
  also shorting Bitcoin right now. And that's where they get the
• 1:04:59
  spread from, you know, the buys and the shorts.
• 1:05:02
  And that's where they make their like, you know, management fees
• 1:05:04
  here. But Charles dropped this.
• 1:05:06
  And I think it's, it's maybe it's just another data point on
• 1:05:10
  our board here. So I'm gonna read the tweet.
• 1:05:12
  And he goes. People are wondering why Bitcoin
• 1:05:13
  has been stuck at 100K for so long despite the institutional
• 1:05:17
  FOMO, despite what Twitter news might suggest.
• 1:05:20
  It's because Bitcoin Ogs, AKA the long term holders have been
• 1:05:23
  dumping on Wall Street since the ETF launch in January 2024,
• 1:05:28
  unloading their position in April on bits and dips.
• 1:05:31
  I predicted the Bitcoin treasury companies would create a huge
• 1:05:34
  flywheel buying frenzy and push the ETF narrative into the
• 1:05:37
  backseat. We have clearly entered the heat
• 1:05:40
  of that today as many copycats have entered the market.
• 1:05:42
  This dynamic is now starting to appear in the on chain data and
• 1:05:46
  we can see that the six months plus Bitcoin holders have
• 1:05:50
  skyrocketed over the two-month period.
• 1:05:53
  The amount of Bitcoin acquired in the last two months by this
• 1:05:55
  cohort has completely consumed all of the Bitcoin unloaded by
• 1:05:58
  the long term holders over the last 1 1/2 years.
• 1:06:01
  Incredible. We also see a new dynamic
• 1:06:04
  whenever aggressive spikes in six month plus holders occur.
• 1:06:07
  Price usually squeezes following these periods.
• 1:06:10
  Short term bullish. Will the treasury companies be
• 1:06:12
  able to keep up the fast rate of accumulation?
• 1:06:15
  I think this flywheel still has a long way to go, which is what
• 1:06:18
  Luke and I were kind of talking about earlier in the show about
• 1:06:20
  Bitcoin treasury companies. In the near term, we still need
• 1:06:23
  to overwhelm broader weakness across on chain data which on
• 1:06:27
  aggregate could be better today if the six month plus holders,
• 1:06:31
  the treasury companies can continue their relentless buying
• 1:06:34
  that should be achievable. And then you can see here the
• 1:06:37
  blue line here is the six month holders or wait, this blue line
• 1:06:41
  here, sorry, colorblind. And the red line is the 2 year
• 1:06:44
  holders. And there was actually a good
• 1:06:47
  comment here. I thought I had it up here, but
• 1:06:50
  he someone was asking like, can you show on the chart like with
• 1:06:53
  the long term holders selling? And he's like, that's literally
• 1:06:55
  what the chart is showing. So you can see here and I'll
• 1:06:59
  explain this for the audio listeners, but for you guys on
• 1:07:01
  YouTube, you can see this blue arrow here is the six month
• 1:07:04
  holders acquiring Bitcoin. This starts June 2021, you know,
• 1:07:10
  and you can see the price it it starts pumping as these new
• 1:07:13
  corporate treasury or six month holders start to accumulate
• 1:07:16
  Bitcoin. It kind of goes sideways for a
• 1:07:18
  while. The price dips a little bit and
• 1:07:20
  then when the that number goes back up is when a new six month
• 1:07:26
  holder entrants are coming into the market.
• 1:07:28
  And you can see every time the new holders come in, the price
• 1:07:31
  does kind of respond favorably. But on the bottom is this red
• 1:07:35
  line of long term holders and it did increase around 2023, but
• 1:07:40
  you can see a steady decline since 2024 or rather since the
• 1:07:44
  ETF has come out into the market.
• 1:07:46
  And so you know, Nico and I have been talking about on the show
• 1:07:49
  now we kind of have the data, you can talk to some OG holders.
• 1:07:53
  You know, people have been in this space for a long time and
• 1:07:56
  without with all the bullish news around Bitcoin, everyone's
• 1:08:00
  kind of asking the same question is like, how come the price
• 1:08:03
  isn't ripping? I have friends that are like,
• 1:08:05
  dude, there's so much paper Bitcoin in the market.
• 1:08:07
  This is why the price isn't ripping.
• 1:08:09
  Again, as I said earlier, I'm a simple supply demand kind of
• 1:08:13
  guy. It's like there's just more
• 1:08:14
  sellers than buyers right now. And as we can see, you know,
• 1:08:18
  this is how Bitcoin gets distributed by long term holders
• 1:08:21
  essentially selling some Bitcoin, you know, locking in
• 1:08:24
  some profits, whatever you want to call it, essentially, you
• 1:08:27
  know, locking in some purchasing power games here.
• 1:08:30
  So maybe they don't don't get wrecked in another their market.
• 1:08:33
  But you can see that this is how the Bitcoin gets distributed.
• 1:08:36
  Long term holders stay in the market for a long time, They
• 1:08:38
  gain some purchasing power, they sell some to survive, and then
• 1:08:42
  new entrants come in. And this is how Bitcoin gets
• 1:08:44
  distributed around the world. So this is nothing to panic
• 1:08:47
  about, but we are seeing that the data is here now and we can
• 1:08:51
  see where the Bitcoin is being sold from.
• 1:08:54
  Again, whether you're an Anche metric guy or not, you think
• 1:08:56
  it's, you know, tea leaf reading for men.
• 1:09:00
  You can see clearly on the chart there has been a lot of selling.
• 1:09:03
  And of course we also have the nation state kind of concern
• 1:09:06
  here. We saw Germany sell 50,000 plus
• 1:09:08
  coins. We still have literally no clue
• 1:09:11
  what's going on on the nation state level in China and or
• 1:09:14
  America. We did speculate on Friday.
• 1:09:16
  It seems like America might be buying some more Bitcoin.
• 1:09:19
  There's there's, you know, some trickle of information come out
• 1:09:22
  that that could potentially be the case.
• 1:09:24
  But again, why is the price just being stuck at 100K?
• 1:09:27
  There's just more sellers than buyers.
• 1:09:29
  Guys, this is very simple economics here.
• 1:09:31
  But with that being said, I think it's still very important
• 1:09:35
  to remind ourselves Bitcoin is holding on very strong in the
• 1:09:39
  face of all this economic, geopolitical uncertainty that we
• 1:09:43
  see right now. And again, when we had the
• 1:09:45
  tariffs, you know, Bitcoin only dropped as much as the S&P 500
• 1:09:48
  when we saw the Middle Middle East crisis kind of unfold 2
• 1:09:52
  weeks ago, Bitcoin kind, and it held out pretty strong.
• 1:09:56
  And then it recovered even stronger.
• 1:09:57
  So even though we're seeing sellers sell Bitcoin right now,
• 1:10:00
  long term sellers or long term holders sell Bitcoin, I think
• 1:10:04
  Bitcoin price right now, the network in general is very
• 1:10:08
  resilient. It's very strong.
• 1:10:09
  I'm still credibly bullish for the end of the year.
• 1:10:12
  But I just brought some new data to you, Luke.
• 1:10:16
  Now we have a new wrinkle to add here.
• 1:10:18
  So what's your thoughts on it's just basically long term holders
• 1:10:22
  selling their Bitcoin right now? I forget what the metric was
• 1:10:26
  that I saw, but essentially I think it was last week we were
• 1:10:31
  talking about that the sellers right now are being bought up by
• 1:10:34
  the Bitcoin treasury companies and the ETFs currently.
• 1:10:37
  And so again, this won't last forever.
• 1:10:40
  I think it's going to RIP. But thoughts, Luke?
• 1:10:44
  Thoughts. Yeah.
• 1:10:47
  So it is true that that red line is decreasing.
• 1:10:51
  The one we've got on the screen right now, we've talked about
• 1:10:54
  this a lot. We've said over the past year
• 1:10:56
  long term holders have sold 1,000,000 coins and that's very
• 1:11:00
  normal. Every single time throughout
• 1:11:02
  history, the bitcoins popped above its previous all time
• 1:11:06
  high. You typically see like 6 to 12
• 1:11:09
  months of long term holders selling their coins, taking
• 1:11:13
  profits and this eventually ends in a supply overhang that
• 1:11:19
  creates the top in Bitcoin. This typically happens about,
• 1:11:22
  you know, a year after the all time high bridge.
• 1:11:25
  And This is why a lot of people are slightly concerned now
• 1:11:28
  because we initially got back above that, you know, 6970K all
• 1:11:33
  time high about a year ago. And a lot of people are seeing
• 1:11:36
  the data and they're seeing that long term holders are selling
• 1:11:39
  and they're like, oh, this is this is bad.
• 1:11:41
  The bitcoins top, It's just like previous cycles.
• 1:11:45
  But this is what we keep saying to you guys.
• 1:11:47
  It's not just like previous Bitcoin cycles.
• 1:11:50
  This time is different to previous times.
• 1:11:54
  Why is that? That's because this cycle we've
• 1:11:56
  seen something new. We've seen the new number of
• 1:11:59
  whales go absolutely parabolic over the past six months.
• 1:12:02
  And this is the treasury companies, the billionaires.
• 1:12:05
  And on the chart that we had up on the screen a second ago, that
• 1:12:08
  was the six month, the holders of Bitcoin, the guys, the blue
• 1:12:12
  line at the very top, we're seeing these guys, the new
• 1:12:15
  whales overwhelm the old whales. They are overwhelming the long
• 1:12:21
  term holders who, yes, have correctly sold 1,000,000 coins
• 1:12:25
  over the past 6 to 12 months. And all I'm going to say about
• 1:12:29
  data and tea leaves and stuff like that is you could kind of
• 1:12:32
  see some sort of a correlation. If you look at the three arrows
• 1:12:36
  our gentleman and friend of the channel has drawn on the blue
• 1:12:40
  lines, you can see they do correlate to price pumps.
• 1:12:45
  But here's the kicker. What's the biggest price pump on
• 1:12:48
  this chart? Bitcoin rallied from 16K to 70K
• 1:12:52
  in six months. And what happened with his magic
• 1:12:55
  indicator? It went sideways during those
• 1:12:58
  six months. So again, This is why I just
• 1:13:00
  think all models are wrong. It's very rare to find a model
• 1:13:03
  that actually accurately can describe or predict the price of
• 1:13:07
  Bitcoin. But again, I think I think
• 1:13:10
  overall I agree with a lot of the narrative that's associated
• 1:13:14
  with this chart. Yes, long term holders are
• 1:13:16
  selling. Yes, I do believe long term
• 1:13:18
  holders are going to be outspived by the new whales and
• 1:13:23
  the new corporates and the new smart money who seem to be
• 1:13:27
  entering the space over the past 12 months.
• 1:13:29
  Yeah, that was a good catch the because I was thinking the same
• 1:13:32
  thing like, yes, we are seeing a lot of long term holders.
• 1:13:35
  And I think, you know, I, I saw someone on Twitter, maybe maybe
• 1:13:40
  it was to this chart or just in general, we see the sentiment
• 1:13:44
  someone maybe they retweet. I forget what it was.
• 1:13:47
  And I I didn't bring it up here today, but someone was
• 1:13:49
  essentially saying like it might have been a skeptic.
• 1:13:53
  You know, we're kind of getting we're kind of getting this
• 1:13:55
  comment right here, which, you know, not not to dunk on you
• 1:13:58
  Daryl here, but this is this kind of the same sentiment.
• 1:14:01
  He goes, Bitcoin will go to 0. All the old heads are selling
• 1:14:05
  and someone on Twitter was basically saying like, look,
• 1:14:08
  don't trust what all the Bitcoin influencers are telling you to
• 1:14:12
  never sell your Bitcoin because the Ogs are dumping on you.
• 1:14:15
  This is why I like, I'll never buy Bitcoin or something like
• 1:14:17
  that. And I, I just, I totally don't
• 1:14:21
  think that that's the case. It's like, look, it's money.
• 1:14:23
  You will use it when you need it.
• 1:14:25
  It's not so much a bad thing. It's like this is not a bug
• 1:14:28
  around Bitcoin or Bitcoin holders.
• 1:14:30
  This is a feature. You use your money when you need
• 1:14:32
  it. And hey, if you've been buying
• 1:14:34
  Bitcoin at a penny and now it's 100K, like what?
• 1:14:39
  I don't see the issue of, you know, shaving a little bit off
• 1:14:41
  for your purchasing power to live your life like this is the
• 1:14:43
  natural distribution of Bitcoin throughout the ecosystem.
• 1:14:48
  If everyone is holding their Bitcoin like Sailor is or like
• 1:14:51
  the United States government saying it is, it's like, how is
• 1:14:55
  all this Bitcoin going to get distributed around the world?
• 1:14:57
  It's like either either the Bitcoin gets sold and more
• 1:14:59
  people buy it or each Bitcoin's going to be at a ridiculously
• 1:15:03
  astronomical price here. This is like this is just simple
• 1:15:06
  demand supply economics here. So either way, it's bullish.
• 1:15:10
  I would say, you know, hey, if we get cheaper Bitcoin for the
• 1:15:14
  whole summer, like I'm kind of OK with that.
• 1:15:16
  You know, hey, if you make money, if you got cash flow
• 1:15:19
  coming in cheap stats are great. If you are holding Bitcoin and
• 1:15:22
  that's all you have and you don't work anymore, then you
• 1:15:25
  probably want to see the price go up like the everyone is in a
• 1:15:29
  different boat right now. But I think it is interesting to
• 1:15:32
  see that long some long term holders, not all of them
• 1:15:34
  obviously are are selling off in it and it is kind of, you know,
• 1:15:38
  keeping the price pretty, pretty stable right now.
• 1:15:41
  So Bitcoin is our stable coin now, Luke?
• 1:15:46
  It is a stable coin. And again we got another
• 1:15:48
  interesting comment where genuine question, where is the
• 1:15:51
  additional $2 trillion going to come in the next 6 to 8 months?
• 1:15:54
  Is it going to come from Wales, individuals, governments?
• 1:15:58
  Who is it going to come from? I'm assuming that is asking the
• 1:16:02
  question. You know, if bitcoins going to
• 1:16:03
  double go from 100K to 200, we need $2 trillion of capital to
• 1:16:07
  come into the market to double bitcoins market cap.
• 1:16:10
  But again, that's wrong because again, with Bitcoin, there's a
• 1:16:14
  multiplier effect. So for Bitcoin to double and
• 1:16:17
  reach a $4 trillion market cap, it's $2 trillion today.
• 1:16:21
  We don't need $2 trillion of capital to come into Bitcoin.
• 1:16:24
  We only need like 300 billion of new capital to come into Bitcoin
• 1:16:29
  because the multiplier effects for Bitcoin today at 6X I.
• 1:16:33
  Think it's actually higher. Luke Yeah.
• 1:16:36
  Galaxy Research And I, I don't have the the report on hand, but
• 1:16:42
  I remember they just dropped a report like a week, 2 weeks ago.
• 1:16:46
  You weren't on the show, but I, I, I forgot to fully send it to
• 1:16:49
  you 'cause I would make you even more bullish.
• 1:16:51
  But it said it was, I believe it was 8X multiplier in a bear
• 1:16:56
  market and it was somewhere between like 12 and 24 in the
• 1:17:02
  bull market. So I'll try to find that for you
• 1:17:05
  to Fact Check here. But I think 6X is a conservative
• 1:17:08
  multiplier here. So it could be even less than
• 1:17:11
  that is essentially why I why I cut you off.
• 1:17:16
  Yeah, here. I'll look for it.
• 1:17:17
  Keep going. Someone says please explain.
• 1:17:19
  Explain that a little bit and I'll try to find the data for
• 1:17:22
  you, Luke. Yeah.
• 1:17:24
  So I mean, everybody knows that not all 21 million of the
• 1:17:28
  Bitcoin is available for sale. Everybody understands that the
• 1:17:32
  data's incredibly clear, like 10 million of those coins haven't
• 1:17:35
  moved for the past five years. We know that 5 million bitcoins
• 1:17:39
  completely lost hasn't been touched in over a decade.
• 1:17:42
  So like everybody knows not all 21 million bitcoins available
• 1:17:45
  for sale. So when everybody's doing their
• 1:17:47
  maths, they're like they're, they're still using the 21
• 1:17:50
  million circulating supply of Bitcoin in their maths.
• 1:17:53
  We shouldn't be doing that. You need to actually use the
• 1:17:56
  multiplier effect. Now Willy Woo has a really good
• 1:17:58
  model on his website and it was called the price gain per dollar
• 1:18:05
  invested into Bitcoin and it has a really cool, it's a two year
• 1:18:09
  move in average of how dollars coming into Bitcoin affect
• 1:18:12
  Bitcoin's market cap. That's why I like to use the
• 1:18:15
  multiplier effects from his website because it's a two year
• 1:18:18
  move in average. So it's incredibly conservative,
• 1:18:21
  and right now that's at six. OK, OK, well, we'll do this real
• 1:18:25
  quick and, and forgive me guys, I, I, I misremembered.
• 1:18:29
  It wasn't Galaxy, it was Gemini and coin glass.
• 1:18:32
  They, they dropped this report. This is gemini.com/strategic
• 1:18:36
  Dash, Bitcoin Dash Reserve. You guys can go, it's free and
• 1:18:40
  it goes market cap multiplier. Each dollar deployed into
• 1:18:42
  Bitcoin can move the market by OK, so I was off a little bit,
• 1:18:46
  either a dollar and 70 overtime or up to $25 in the short term
• 1:18:50
  depending on timing, volatility and conviction.
• 1:18:53
  So the cyclical MCM varies significantly with trend
• 1:18:57
  momentum ranging between roughly .7.
• 1:19:00
  In bear markets, every $1.00 of inflow if held until next bear
• 1:19:04
  market leads to increasing market cap by just $0.70, and
• 1:19:08
  then 3.7%. In bull markets, every $1.00 of
• 1:19:11
  inflow if held until the next bull market results in
• 1:19:14
  increasing market cap of up to 3.7.
• 1:19:17
  So you're like OK wait, you're off.
• 1:19:18
  What are you even talking about here?
• 1:19:20
  Opti Ultimate MCM when measured cumulatively from bitcoins
• 1:19:24
  genesis block stabilizes around roughly 1.7, implying that each
• 1:19:29
  $1.00 permanently deployed into Bitcoin has historically
• 1:19:32
  resulted in a dollar 70 residue residue and and market cap.
• 1:19:37
  And for short term impacts, the 30 day MCM can range from near 0
• 1:19:42
  to 25 X, especially during high volatility periods.
• 1:19:46
  On average, the short term multiplier is roughly 8X,
• 1:19:50
  meaning $1.00 capital can briefly move the market by $8.
• 1:19:54
  So Luke, you have some new numbers.
• 1:19:56
  On average it's 8X, short term could be as high AS25X.
• 1:20:02
  And you know, maybe like in during bear markets, it's maybe
• 1:20:06
  a 1.7 or a .7 X. So you know what's that?
• 1:20:11
  What is? What is your new updated math
• 1:20:13
  telling you, Luke? It's.
• 1:20:17
  All bullish. It's all incredibly bullish.
• 1:20:19
  I mean, like a lot of people are saying where we're going to get
• 1:20:22
  $2 trillion of extra capital from to double Bitcoin.
• 1:20:26
  Firstly, we only need 300 billion, but I think we're going
• 1:20:28
  to see more than $2 trillion come into Bitcoin.
• 1:20:31
  This bull run. Just think about it.
• 1:20:32
  Michael Saylor's just launched 3 fixed income products, Strife,
• 1:20:36
  Stride and Strike. Yeah, that's the, that's the
• 1:20:40
  three. And like these things
• 1:20:43
  essentially open the portal to the $315 trillion fixed income
• 1:20:47
  market. But this is insane.
• 1:20:49
  What he's just launched and nobody has wrapped their heads
• 1:20:52
  around it. Me either.
• 1:20:53
  Yes. But again, we've got 300
• 1:20:55
  trillion that can now directly come into Bitcoin through these
• 1:20:59
  fixed income products in a roundabout way.
• 1:21:01
  So again, I, I think it's, it's easier than ever to see
• 1:21:06
  trillions of dollars flowing into Bitcoin.
• 1:21:08
  Even recently we showed you guys the news of Fannie Mae and
• 1:21:13
  Freddie Mac being forced to accept Bitcoin as a down payment
• 1:21:18
  for a mortgage. What what's gonna happen here?
• 1:21:21
  Like, I don't who knows how that bill's going to evolve, but is
• 1:21:25
  that going to open the door for trillions of dollars of equity
• 1:21:31
  to be withdrawn out of property market and into Bitcoin?
• 1:21:35
  Maybe Bitcoin is now used as the equity portion for a mortgage
• 1:21:39
  and people can take equity out of their home.
• 1:21:43
  I mean, Bitcoin right now is literally tapping the biggest
• 1:21:47
  markets in the world and nobody's noticed.
• 1:21:49
  We didn't have this in 2021. We didn't have BlackRock with
• 1:21:52
  Bitcoin ETFs. We didn't have American
• 1:21:55
  mortgages now potentially being done with Bitcoin down payment.
• 1:21:59
  We didn't have Michael Saylor openly tap in the $315 trillion
• 1:22:04
  fixed income market. We had none of that in last
• 1:22:06
  cycle. So some people, some people say
• 1:22:08
  where's the $2 trillion going to come from, guys, we could see 20
• 1:22:12
  trillion want to flow into Bitcoin this cycle comfortably,
• 1:22:16
  conservatively. We could see that again, global
• 1:22:19
  equities, hundreds of trillions of dollars in size.
• 1:22:23
  I think we need to think bigger and again, 20 trillion wanting
• 1:22:26
  to flow in, slap an 8X or A25X multiplier on it.
• 1:22:30
  Now we're really starting to talk some funky numbers.
• 1:22:33
  Let's go. 100 trillion market cap this year.
• 1:22:36
  You just heard Luke say it. No, no, I'm trying.
• 1:22:38
  I'm trying. No, but I mean.
• 1:22:42
  When you, it took me a minute to understand the multiplier effect
• 1:22:45
  as well. And I think I had to ask Luke
• 1:22:47
  like two or three times because I heard it before.
• 1:22:50
  But it like, I forget who said it at first, but it just, oh,
• 1:22:54
  oh, it was a British huddle when he was explaining it just like,
• 1:22:57
  I'm like, what is he talking about?
• 1:22:59
  And then Luke kind of sat me down one day before the show and
• 1:23:02
  he's like, yo, and we even did it on the show and you explained
• 1:23:06
  it to me. And I was like, oh, OK, now, now
• 1:23:10
  I'm even more bullish than I ever was before because I was
• 1:23:13
  like, you know, senior gringo poppy in here is like, I really
• 1:23:15
  thought we needed to double the market cap to double the price.
• 1:23:18
  And you're like, no, you don't need that much capital come into
• 1:23:23
  Bitcoin to move the Bitcoin price up.
• 1:23:25
  And once you kind of understand, like, wait there, there's levels
• 1:23:29
  to this. This works totally different
• 1:23:31
  than I thought. Yes, you know, supply demand
• 1:23:32
  economics is taking place. But for every dollar that comes
• 1:23:36
  into Bitcoin, it doesn't necessarily mean that the market
• 1:23:38
  cap moves up a dollar. That's not how this works.
• 1:23:42
  It could move up as we've been saying, you know, 6825X at the
• 1:23:46
  very least it's you know 1.7 X per dollar it moves up.
• 1:23:51
  So, you know, these these predictions of $20 trillion
• 1:23:54
  market cap by end of the year, yes, that's crazy.
• 1:23:57
  A 10X sounds nuts, but a double here, you know, 3-4 XI think
• 1:24:01
  that's totally in play. Just considering if you
• 1:24:04
  understand how the math works behind the scenes.
• 1:24:07
  And as Luke just pointed out, there seems to be a lot of
• 1:24:11
  capital that is waiting on the sideline to get into Bitcoin and
• 1:24:15
  it could find its way in the market within the next quarter,
• 1:24:17
  within the next two quarters, you know, six months, by the end
• 1:24:20
  of the year. And who knows, Luke, maybe we
• 1:24:23
  don't get a 2026 bear market. I would really love for that to
• 1:24:27
  happen. That'd be really nice.
• 1:24:28
  Or, you know, maybe a bear market at 150 K.
• 1:24:30
  I'll take a bear market at 150 K just to basically shut up my
• 1:24:34
  friend who's like it's going to double top AT150K.
• 1:24:36
  We're not going to go any higher.
• 1:24:37
  I'm like, no bro, the bear market bottom is going to be 150
• 1:24:41
  K. What are you talking about?
• 1:24:42
  That's. What I'm talking about Let's go
• 1:24:48
  300K300K top sounds great. Sounds.
• 1:24:51
  Awesome, I'm totally with that. All right, guys, Well, this was
• 1:24:54
  today's episode. As someone said in the chat, you
• 1:24:57
  know, long term viewers, like I actually learned something to
• 1:24:59
  say, Hey, you know, we, we, we give some information.
• 1:25:02
  This isn't just hopium here, you know, we do our best.
• 1:25:04
  We, we try to hit it from all angles and guys, as you can
• 1:25:08
  tell, you know, I'm hosting the show today.
• 1:25:10
  So I hope you enjoyed it. Nico's actually gonna be gone
• 1:25:13
  all week. So you're stuck with me all
• 1:25:16
  week. Luke will be here till
• 1:25:18
  Wednesday. You're stuck with Luke till
• 1:25:20
  Wednesday. So you know, we're gonna get
• 1:25:22
  extremely bullish on the show. I actually I, I I'll, I'll tap
• 1:25:26
  on Luke a little more for some different segments so that we
• 1:25:29
  can do some Luke's specials on the simply Bitcoin channel and
• 1:25:33
  we'll we'll get a little more Luke in the show pause.
• 1:25:37
  But you already know Luke. Thank you so much, man
• 1:25:41
  appreciate it's always a blast when you come on and yeah guys,
• 1:25:44
  we'll be back tomorrow, 12:15 PM Eastern Time Monday through
• 1:25:48
  Friday. We go live obviously till we
• 1:25:51
  start a little later. We we got to we got to we got to
• 1:25:53
  get the anticipation up, but we will see you tomorrow guys.
• 1:25:57
  And of course hit the subscribe button like the video comment on
• 1:26:00
  the video. Are we too bull targeted?
• 1:26:01
  But we are dropping fire for you guys.
• 1:26:04
  We got Dante and Rustin and of course Oceans dropping content
• 1:26:08
  all week for you guys. It's not just a live show.
• 1:26:11
  We have all kinds of content for you guys.
• 1:26:13
  So hit that subscribe button and we will catch you on the flip
• 1:26:16
  side. Peace out guys.
• 1:26:20
  Today's episode was brought to you by bitcoinwell.com, a
• 1:26:23
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• 1:26:26
  independence.