Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - Last Chance: Why I’m Buying the Dip + Stock Market News 10 December 2024

Transcript

Felix Prehn - Last Chance: Why I’m Buying the Dip + Stock Market News 10 December 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this pre-market live stream.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: Listen to this.
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: After a big sell-off like yesterday, a lot of people are obviously running for the hills.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: But the smart money is making money and in the next few minutes, I want to explain to you what 75% of people don't understand.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: I want to show you the real opportunities and I want to give you the four pieces of news that you need to know today to make good financial decisions.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: So stick around, smash the you know what, and if you're here to make money, then write money in the chat, ok, so good morning.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Everybody.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: Smash the likes, as Alex Appreciate that.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: But yeah, let's see who wants to make some money here this morning.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Anybody wants to make money?
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: No, nobody at all.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: All right, then I'll share my screen with you and we get straight into it.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: Oppenheimer issues the highest forecast for 2025 on Wall Street.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: So just as the snowflakes are selling off, wall Street is saying the market's going to go to all-time highs here.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: Gillis, janet, scott, rene, jerry, alan May, edwin Thomas Okay, lots of people wanting to make money.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: Love that.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: Dollar symbols will also do the trick if that's easier for you to type in there.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: So keep it coming, keep it coming.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: And there is a little bit more to that, because this is a little chart out from Deutsche Bank, which is one of the world's worst investment banks, but the data is solid and what does it show you?
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: It shows you the trend of the S&P 500 since 2007.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: So, pre-global financial crisis and do you see that we just keep moving up in kind of the same channel, with the occasional dip, which is just the biggest freaking opportunity ever to make lots more of the money that you are putting in there?
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: The uh, the money emojis will also do the trick, like that, terry and Jerome.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: And right now, what's Wall Street predicting?
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: Well, they're predicting that we're going to be right bang in the middle of this channel again, not a particularly unusual year coming up, but one that's going to make us a lot of money.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: Now I promise to explain this to you.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: Here is what most people don't understand.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: We've had two years in a row of a stock market doing what Going up right.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: Basically, two years in a row, right, 20% plus per year In history.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: When you get that, when you get two strong years like that 75% of the time, what do you think happens in the next year?
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: You get another big rally and people have this limited belief in thinking oh, my stock is up 50, 50, 100, 600, whatever can't go up anymore.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: I must sell, right?
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: So people do that.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: And it makes no sense because historically, things keep going higher and higher and higher.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: So what am I saying to you?
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: I'm saying to you I don't understand why people are selling stocks.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: Why are people selling stocks?
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: Yesterday they're taking profits.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: Palantir hit $80.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: Everybody sells.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: Does that make any sense?
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: Well, if it goes back down to five, then everyone would have been like, oh, they're geniuses.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: But the likelihood is just, in the long term, that stocks keep going up, right?
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: So I'm not saying you should never take profits, by the way, I'm not saying that at all.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: I'm saying stop losses is probably the better way of doing it, but expect 2025 to be a great year.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: Statistically, weird things can happen.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: The world can go up in smoke or whatever, but then it doesn't really matter anyway.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: But from a momentum point of view, from a fundamental point of view, from a profits growth point of view, from a probability point of view, we should be looking at a rally in 2025.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: And then I'm not even talking about what Trump and Elon and all the billionaires are going to do in the US with deregulation and tax cuts and so on, which will also help the market tremendously.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: But just have a look at what actually sold off yesterday, because it's crucial to understand what actually went on there yesterday.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: Right Now, the top 26 winners of 2024, the 26 stocks that went up the most and that's some familiar names in here MicroStrategy, palantir, nvidia, Vistra, some of the ones who've really really gone nutty this year, who are crazy amounts 500%, 300%.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: They all sold off yesterday by about 5% or more.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: And wait for this the worst stocks of the year, the losers, the big losers that are down significantly this year.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: Guess what?
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: They almost universally rallied yesterday.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: And what does that say to you?
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: Well, it says to you that there is something in stock picking.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: Isn't there, because you could be buying stocks that are down like 78% this year, or you could be owning stocks that are up, you know, a couple of hundred percent this year.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, you can buy the index and that's a safe place to start.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: And if you're not investing yet, if you're new to it, definitely go buy the index.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: It'll be a great education, but you can see that there might be some merit in buying good stocks, don't you think?
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: What do you think?
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: He's drinking turmeric, lemon, hot water.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: Actually, you know, what I'm drinking today is something really quite funky.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: I'm drinking uh, uh, some, um, sort of some sort of bark thing, some sort of wood bark thing, I don't know what it's called.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: Uh, which is, um, it gives you more energy, more chi, apparently, and then I've added a dash of you're sidetracking me here a dash of electrolytes, which is not a brand that I'm sponsored by, but it's good stuff.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: It tastes like salt water, seawater, delicious.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: I don't like flavors or sugars or any of that.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: So where does this take us?
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: Well, think about it.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: If you want to learn how to pick those great stocks, how do you pick them?
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: What's the basis on which you pick them?
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: Well, the basis on which the most successful Wall Street investors have picked them is the basis on which I pick them, which is we look at stock charts and we find the winners and we look at some in a moment, and people often say to me yeah, but I'd rather just give my money to a fund.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: And if that's how you feel and you've got a great fund manager, brilliant, you know, love you for it.
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: It's all good.
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: But think about it If I spot a breakout and I want to set up a trade that's, I don't know, $10,000 or you know, maybe even $100,000 or a million dollars, I can do that right, because I don't move the market.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: But the problem is if I become a fund actually, a lot of you guys have suggested I should start a fund, an ETF or something.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: Problem is, once we get to bigger numbers, say, we then have you know a billion dollars, lots of zeros.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: So what if I set up a little trade that's now you know $50 million?
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: Well, I'm going to start moving the market, aren't I?
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: So how do I exit that position?
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: When I do, I tank the stock, and that is why the large funds do not ever significantly outperform the market.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: They can't.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: And the most successful hedge funds out there, they don't want your money.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: They're like no, we've got another stuff.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: Our problem is we've got too much money and therefore every single trade we do moves the market.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: Small investors have a massive, massive advantage, and by small I mean sort of below $100 million.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: So you can grow quite a lot from where you probably are and you can make a lot of money because you can buy a small stock that could explode.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: You can't do that anymore when you're huge, because you can now only buy Apple and big, big stocks that are not going to move that much.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: So am I too much of a genius to drink regular coffee?
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: I'm not a genius in any way, shape or form, eric, but I rarely drink coffee.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: I must say I enjoy the taste of it, but I don't sort of enjoy the buzz of it.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: If you don't drink much of it, then you get a real buzz from it.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: So I'm kind of like I get a buzz.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: But I want to also explain this to you because understand this there were four things that happened yesterday or overnight or early this morning that are really changing the way that we should look at markets.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: Michael said if you have an ETF, I'm sure a lot of people will be keen, I know, but what I'm saying is that the ETF would perform worse and worse the bigger it got.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: And that's just the problem with the markets.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: It's just, you know, if you get too big, you stop losing the ability to pick the best trades because you just can't.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: And you know we're in some small random stuff sometimes.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: And you can't be in small random stuff because you shift the market, so it's an important realization.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: Okay, what happened here?
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: Well, here is a bit of Tesla news Deutsche Bank raising its price target to $370 because they're saying we're now including FSD cells, robo-taxi operations and OEM licensing fees into the robo-taxi bucket, whereas previously we didn't.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: And our belief is that the new US administration can streamline regulations around deployment of robo-taxis as we are increasing our forecast $370, which is not exactly on target.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: But it's better than being hit in the face with a cold dead fish, isn't it?
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: Second piece of big news Taiwan Semiconductor TSM is the ticker.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: They just reported earnings and they are wonderful, absolutely wonderful.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: You want to run over there and give them a big fat kiss.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: That's how wonderful.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: And guess what's driving there?
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: I think it's 30% plus revenue growth.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: Guess what it is Starts with I and it ends with A and I.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: I said it the wrong way around, didn't I?
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: I see that there's so much for the genius.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: Can't spell the two-letter word.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah, ai, ai, demand.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: And why is that important?
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: Because the biggest customer of TSMC is you can see it here it's Apple.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: Second biggest customer it's NVIDIA and then it's you know a bunch of others AMD.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: You know the sort of the loser category, these guys.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: But you know, still it gives an insight that the big tech boys are growing and that's very, very important.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: Scott says the only advantage that Real Investor has yeah, being small and nimble is a big advantage of ours.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: There is another advantage in that we can actually spot trends that the nincompoops on Wall Street don't see through their spreadsheets.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: So we can actually see products that have an incredible impact, either because we use them or because we see the potential.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: Wall Street doesn't really look at that.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: They just say show me the spreadsheet.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: And a lot of the time well all the time the good innovation doesn't show up on a spreadsheet, right, because the profits come later.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: So initially it's just a great concept.
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: So actually I think we have quite a lot of advantages as retail investors and we can buy a little random stuff, but this is one, honestly, our investors and we can buy it.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: We can buy a little random stuff, but this is one honestly.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: Google is up like what?
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: Five percent pre-market, something like that.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: Where is it?
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah, 4.5 percent here pre-market, and it's because of this their quantum computer called willow.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: I don't know why it's called willow.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: That's the silliest name they could have come up with.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: It's called Willow.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: That's the silliest name they could have come up with.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: Elk can't spell a four-letter name.
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: Interesting.
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: Well, I struggle with two letters.
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: So we could be friends.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: You could be the smart one.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: This quantum computer does in five minutes what it would take today's fastest supercomputer 10 septillion years.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know what 10 septillion is.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: I think it's 10 to the power of 25, which is a lot of zeros.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: It's just a lot of zeros.
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: So it would take forever like forever.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: You'd be dead.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: Everybody in your you know the planet is probably not around anymore.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: You can do that in five minutes and that is a tech breakthrough like we haven't really seen before in a very, very long time.
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: And I know everyone's writing Google off because they're sort of slightly behind open AI and all of that but this is the kind of stuff that Google does very well Amazing engineering.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: So keep an eye on Google and what they're putting out there.
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: And, by the way, what's the problem with this as well?
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: This can hack all your passwords.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: This can hack Bitcoin wallet.
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: It can hack all encryption, literally anything.
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: So what does that mean?
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: Well, it's, of course, amazing for cybersecurity, isn't it?
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: Cybersecurity stocks are gonna be like you're gonna have to spend so much fricking money on cybersecurity because AI combined with quantum computers bloody hell, right, they're gonna be cracking your password every fraction of a second that you're gonna have to keep changing it somehow.