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Study Hall: Will The Market Crash After The Election? · Earn Your Leisure

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  Speaker 2: Should we expect a crash or correction following a presidential election?
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  Speaker 2: So who's in office? Hope if Trump wins, he is
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  Speaker 2: as presidential as he was the first time when he won,
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  Speaker 2: to give the market some kind of calm and relief.
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  Speaker 2: So whether it be a pullback, yes, there's a pullback
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  Speaker 2: every month. I don't think we will have a big
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  Speaker 2: correction as a result, because I think once whoever wins
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  Speaker 2: is in will be very clear and what the policies are,
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  Speaker 2: and then you'll know which companies should do well based
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  Speaker 2: on those affiliations and initiatives that they want to push
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  Speaker 2: pull back. Yes, but I think there's a lot of
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  Speaker 2: fear going into it. But if you look through any
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  Speaker 2: presidential cycle, of course this summer maybe a little bit rocky,
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  Speaker 2: but by the time we get I think to September October,
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  Speaker 2: I think a winner will be priced in. There'll be
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  Speaker 2: a strong Christmas rally, and then we have some issues
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  Speaker 2: that we have to face going into next year. But
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  Speaker 2: I think I think we'll be fine. I think we
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  Speaker 2: worry too much about smaller issues that are not the
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  Speaker 2: biggest reasons why the market will drop or fluctuate. I
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  Speaker 2: would keep my eyes more so on interest rates if
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  Speaker 2: there's a cut or if they raise quantitative easing, and
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  Speaker 2: then also of other countries actually go through recession and
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  Speaker 2: announce it. Those have more of a waiting than the
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  Speaker 2: presidential election, and so for a trader you're going to
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  Speaker 2: get a lot more volatility before the long term. I
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  Speaker 2: don't see a big pullback as a result cost the
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  Speaker 2: powers to be I think are telling them, like, you
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  Speaker 2: need to signal some confidence to the market.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that that's the that's the key. When
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  Speaker 1: you think of like presidential elections, even midterms. We spoke
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  Speaker 1: about this uncertainly the least of volatility, absolutely, and so
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  Speaker 1: there's no certainty. If we don't know where we had it,
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  Speaker 1: then you might see some volatility. I don't know if
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  Speaker 1: a correction will be in the calling cards, but based
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  Speaker 1: on even like the Stock Stock Markets Almanac, if they
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  Speaker 1: studied the history of presidential cycles, and it's always it
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  Speaker 1: references the best six months to trade. So if we're tradered,
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  Speaker 1: if we're investors, I always look at those best six months,
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  Speaker 1: especially when we're talking about post election or we're talking
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  Speaker 1: like pre election or midterms, and historically it's been from
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  Speaker 1: the month of November to April. So obviously November fourth,
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  Speaker 1: the election will happen. Traditionally in an election year, it's
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  Speaker 1: been a hold, right, people will hold wherever the positions
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  Speaker 1: they're in to see where we're going to settle because
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  Speaker 1: obviously there might be uncertainty or it could be certainty
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  Speaker 1: and say all right, well the incumbent will be run
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  Speaker 1: back and then like you said, we prepare for the
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  Speaker 1: next year. And so we've seen the summer months slow down,
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  Speaker 1: and so the worst six months post election has been
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  Speaker 1: obviously from May to October and so historically that has
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  Speaker 1: shown that since nineteen forty nine, So we got to
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  Speaker 1: keep that into mind. But again, I think it's priced
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  Speaker 1: in by I would say September at hfall historically over
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  Speaker 1: the past five years, and I saw I said, micromoney
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  Speaker 1: is just such a great parameter of that we've seen
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  Speaker 1: the past three Septembers and what that has meant when
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  Speaker 1: we're talking about sell offs, when we're talking about people
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  Speaker 1: trying of fish out their fiscal year, we've seen pullbacks
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  Speaker 1: across the board, whether it's the dial, whether it's thats
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  Speaker 1: and P where it's an astack. We've seen October some pullbacks.
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  Speaker 1: And if we look at the history of pullbacks, look
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  Speaker 1: at when these crashes have happened, look at when these
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  Speaker 1: corrections have happened in those in those months. So I
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  Speaker 1: think it gets priced in and then after I think
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  Speaker 1: we'll settle, and then I'll be looking to figure out
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  Speaker 1: all right, certainty. Uncertainty will determine the valatility, and they
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  Speaker 1: determined if we if and when we should invest.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, look at backs is the time to get into
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  Speaker 2: the market more than anything, like just change the way
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  Speaker 2: you see it in quality companies, only a lot of
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  Speaker 2: people run into trouble when you're trying to trade it
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  Speaker 2: or buy companies that are not quality. And I know
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  Speaker 2: people are like, how long can you talk about Apple,
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  Speaker 2: Microsoft and video Tested the Lily. I'm like, if there
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  Speaker 2: are more quality stocks like that's howthing like KLA that
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  Speaker 2: are quality Auto Zone, But there isn't. I remember maybe
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: twelve years ago you probably had sixty or seventy great
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  Speaker 2: companies that you can get returns from. It's not like
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  Speaker 2: that anymore. Give up on sector rotation. Just focus on
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  Speaker 2: the ones that are great. Indexes first and ETFs then
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  Speaker 2: add to to that you'll be fine. But I think
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  Speaker 2: a lot of these issues with losses come from trying
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  Speaker 2: to time it on a trade basis, where if you
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  Speaker 2: hold it for a long period of time, everything is
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  Speaker 2: going to be okay. If I made you money, please
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  Speaker 2: for yes, and check invest is not that damn. It's
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  Speaker 2: not rocket sciences show.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah somethings.
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  Speaker 2: It was hard, like taking the moon landing. That's tough.
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  Speaker 3: This easy.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, some things from a political standpoint could affect right
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  Speaker 1: when we're talking about taxes, when we're talking about capital
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  Speaker 1: game TAXI thirty four percent, that's just I mean, that's crazy.
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  Speaker 1: And then obviously when we're talking about tariffs. I think
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  Speaker 1: it was two weeks ago we started talking about the
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  Speaker 1: tarists that are zoomed to be put on on China
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  Speaker 1: if if President Biden remains in office. That can effect companies.
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  Speaker 1: Right when we're talking about especially that region of the
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  Speaker 1: world and some of the companies and that of building
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: there with the hopes of finding a global landscape to
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  Speaker 1: expand their businesses, that plays a part. That plays a part,
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  Speaker 1: so that that could affect the bottom line for a
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  Speaker 1: lot of companies.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, So what about this company Archer. Yeah, I
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  Speaker 2: don't know. I don't know what happened. Maybe something in
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  Speaker 2: the Memestock area happened, But a lot of people are
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  Speaker 2: asking me about this Archer aviation. I don't see what
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  Speaker 2: the hype is. The high was seventeen bucks in twenty twenty.
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  Speaker 2: It's currently a three thirty cent. If you want to gamble,
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  Speaker 2: go ahead. But like if Boeing's in trouble, Archer aviation,
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  Speaker 2: which Boeing you can argue as a infrastructure and government
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  Speaker 2: investment as well if they're not doing as well. I
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  Speaker 2: don't know why what happened in the Memestock plan to
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  Speaker 2: make people want this one. But I'm not a big
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  Speaker 2: fan of this one.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm looking. I looked it up a little bit.
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  Speaker 1: So they're responsible for I guess the flying helicopter, like
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  Speaker 1: all the electric helicopter flies on its own. So they
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: partner with ETA, which is and we know if you
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  Speaker 1: watch the Premier League, if you watch anything in soccer,
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  Speaker 1: huge huge, right, huge brand. When we talk about Emirates
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  Speaker 1: and we talk about ETA, those are the two biggest
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  Speaker 1: airlines and companies. But yeah, I no electric flying taxis.
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  Speaker 1: There's too many other quality things to be invested in
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  Speaker 1: outside of that. Just looking at this chart, this would
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  Speaker 1: be something, as an example, if we looked at it
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  Speaker 1: like as something that you shouldn't invest in, stay away,
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  Speaker 1: Like yeah, if we're looking at from a six month,
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  Speaker 1: we're looking at from a year, two year, not really attractive,
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  Speaker 1: not really attractive at all. So I'm not big on this one.
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