Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Same Sad Story | NFL Divisional Round

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Same Sad Story | NFL Divisional Round · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:10
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorite's presented by Draft Kings. The crown
0:14
Speaker 1: is yours. We are an Action Network podcast. I'm branding
0:17
Speaker 1: Kravitz back at it on this wonderful and profitable Tuesday morning.
0:23
Speaker 1: The first Lady of the pod Kendra back from Duval County,
0:27
Speaker 1: the prime Minister of DJEN Nation Stucky. On today's podcast,
0:31
Speaker 1: we have got a load to get to for the
0:34
Speaker 1: divisional round in the NFL postseason Plant the Flag Games.
0:38
Speaker 1: Only eight teams left after complete madness ensued in round one. Kendra,
0:45
Speaker 1: she'll share her deepest thoughts and I hope we get
0:49
Speaker 1: a detail of how Jacksonville was outside of Josh Allen
0:54
Speaker 1: running and rumbling and bumbling his way down the field.
0:57
Speaker 1: We'll get the main event as well, Evans Tuesday. The
1:00
Speaker 1: primer is available right now as we speak over on
1:03
Speaker 1: actionnetwork dot Com. So, Kendra, how good was this weekend
1:07
Speaker 1: overall as a football fan? And then I guess how
1:09
Speaker 1: bad was it for you as a Jags fan, a
1:14
Speaker 1: Jags backer and somebody who is in the building for
1:18
Speaker 1: an iconic Josh Allen performance.
1:21
Speaker 2: The first of.
1:22
Speaker 3: All, I'd say thank you to Jimmy John's for sending
1:26
Speaker 3: me some hangover patches.
1:27
Speaker 2: You guys are the only reason that I survived that day.
1:30
Speaker 2: I'm convinced.
1:31
Speaker 3: My friends were like, it's technically vacation, like you should
1:34
Speaker 3: be drinking because you guys know I only drink on vacation, and.
1:37
Speaker 2: I was like, okay, fine.
1:38
Speaker 3: So I had a lot of champagne before the game,
1:41
Speaker 3: and thank God that I did because I needed it.
1:45
Speaker 3: It was so fun, it was so electric, it was
1:47
Speaker 3: so perfect. It was everything that I wanted it to be.
1:49
Speaker 3: The weather was great, and then the.
1:52
Speaker 2: Fourth quarter just sucked. I have to blame Liam Cohen
1:58
Speaker 2: the most. Love him.
1:59
Speaker 3: He's perfect. Picked shout out Lynn Jones. She was right
2:02
Speaker 3: for everything she said, but it was a bad day
2:05
Speaker 3: for him. But he's a rookie head coach, so you
2:07
Speaker 3: know that he's going to have those We got to
2:08
Speaker 3: the playoffs. We didn't expect to be there, and I
2:12
Speaker 3: honestly think number two in line for blame is probably
2:14
Speaker 3: Trevor and then three the.
2:16
Speaker 2: Secondary those are those are my thoughts.
2:18
Speaker 3: I don't know why they didn't run the ball and
2:21
Speaker 3: not stop running the ball. And then also the kind
2:24
Speaker 3: of like crazy part about it is the Bills were
2:27
Speaker 3: so adamant about banning the Toush push, and at the
2:31
Speaker 3: end of the day they ran the Toush push to
2:34
Speaker 3: solidify the game, and the offensive line basically carried Josh
2:37
Speaker 3: Allen on the Toush push and it sucked.
2:41
Speaker 2: It's so sucked.
2:42
Speaker 3: And then we sat in the parking lot and drank
2:44
Speaker 3: for like two hours while traffic died down. And then
2:47
Speaker 3: I went and had a Singer mountain melt. If anybody
2:49
Speaker 3: knows what that is, oh my god, yeah, I went
2:53
Speaker 3: and got a Zinger Mountain melt and a Captain Jack's
2:57
Speaker 3: and it was perfect.
2:58
Speaker 1: For those that don't know what a Zinger mountain melt is,
3:00
Speaker 1: it is a skillet of French fries, a ton of them,
3:04
Speaker 1: coated in cheese, sour cream, bacon.
3:07
Speaker 3: Chick get your chicken tenders on top of it, rolled
3:10
Speaker 3: in whatever like wing sauce you like.
3:12
Speaker 2: So I got Buffalo and.
3:14
Speaker 3: Then a Captain Jack's is like a seven layer hot
3:17
Speaker 3: fudge chocolate ice cream cake.
3:18
Speaker 2: And me and like eight people set.
3:22
Speaker 3: And watched the night game and cried over a Zinger
3:25
Speaker 3: mountain melts.
3:26
Speaker 2: I didn't go to waffle house as well, so I
3:29
Speaker 2: guess it wasn't all the loss.
3:30
Speaker 1: Well, I was mocked openly for backing the Bills because
3:33
Speaker 1: you can't just back them because of Josh Allen. And
3:36
Speaker 1: then Josh Allen took over the football game because that's
3:38
Speaker 1: what great players do. So uh, it was it was
3:41
Speaker 1: a It was a great weekend for me. I'm upset
3:44
Speaker 1: to hear that you're that your day was ruined, But
3:49
Speaker 1: I'd be disingenuous if I said that I didn't enjoy
3:52
Speaker 1: it a little bit.
3:54
Speaker 3: I wasn't mad at you because you chose Josh Allen.
3:56
Speaker 3: I was mad at you because you stabbed our podcast
3:59
Speaker 3: family in the back.
4:00
Speaker 1: No, I was trying to snake a profit out of
4:03
Speaker 1: the wild card round, which is what every sports better
4:05
Speaker 1: should do.
4:06
Speaker 3: No, I think you just pulled a Kravits and you
4:08
Speaker 3: tried to piss everyone off, and for once it worked
4:11
Speaker 3: out for you.
4:12
Speaker 4: Well I did. It was a great weekend.
4:15
Speaker 1: But I will say something that Stucky and Evan mentioned
4:18
Speaker 1: on the Sunday recap show that I think is important
4:22
Speaker 1: to reiterate is process over results, so not just in
4:27
Speaker 1: the betting sense, like for the forty nine ers, another
4:30
Speaker 1: bet that I cashed, horrible process. I got horrible closing
4:33
Speaker 1: line value on that, but the bet won, so I'm
4:36
Speaker 1: not going to victory lap it.
4:37
Speaker 4: You're just happy when things go.
4:38
Speaker 2: You had a great weekend, you should take a victory lap.
4:41
Speaker 1: But I had a great weekend in terms of the
4:43
Speaker 1: wins and the losses. I think some of the process
4:46
Speaker 1: was a little broken, but I'll take I'll take the dubs.
4:48
Speaker 1: This was the most profitable weekend I've had the entire season,
4:52
Speaker 1: so it was. It definitely worked out well the game itself,
4:56
Speaker 1: talking Jags Bills, the move to go run into the
5:03
Speaker 1: end zone on the QB sneak when Jacksonville is gonna
5:06
Speaker 1: let it happen.
5:07
Speaker 4: That was a broken process from Sean McDermott. Stucky. I
5:11
Speaker 4: cannot believe still.
5:13
Speaker 1: That they chose to do that at the end of
5:17
Speaker 1: that game, and that Cam. I mean, all they had
5:20
Speaker 1: to do is get Cam little to the fifty and
5:23
Speaker 1: then they would have paid for it. I worry about
5:27
Speaker 1: Sean McDermott costing this team a game as they get
5:31
Speaker 1: deeper into the postseason.
5:33
Speaker 5: Yeah, that was you had your best week and I
5:36
Speaker 5: had my worst weekend of the year.
5:37
Speaker 2: I had my worst weekend as well.
5:39
Speaker 5: I had really good numbers, Like one of my favorite
5:41
Speaker 5: bets of the year was JAG's first half, which he
5:45
Speaker 5: got it even money and it closed I don't know,
5:47
Speaker 5: minus one forty five. The Jacks closed minus two and
5:48
Speaker 5: a half point favorites at some shops. So yeah, it
5:53
Speaker 5: was just on the margins are so thin in the
5:56
Speaker 5: NFL playoffs. I also love the Packers. Just tons of miskicks.
5:59
Speaker 5: I mean, can literally miss a kick at the end
6:01
Speaker 5: of the first half. But really that game was decided.
6:04
Speaker 5: I mean, if you look at the box squad, the
6:06
Speaker 5: Jags averaged six point six yards per play to the
6:09
Speaker 5: Bills five and a half. They outgained them. There was
6:11
Speaker 5: two huge plays in that game. One was the missed
6:15
Speaker 5: field goal at the end of the first half and
6:18
Speaker 5: then the Trevor Lawrence his shin going down. I mean
6:21
Speaker 5: that probably took seven points off the board in the
6:24
Speaker 5: first half by you know, half of a yard. Well,
6:27
Speaker 5: nothing the Bills really did. I mean, that was just
6:28
Speaker 5: lack of awareness by Lawrence. And I thought Parker Washington
6:32
Speaker 5: being out for most of the first half was absolutely killer.
6:34
Speaker 5: He saw his impact in the second half where he
6:37
Speaker 5: went off and the Bills just couldn't cover him. He
6:39
Speaker 5: was such a difference though. Yeah, but He's still a
6:43
Speaker 5: huge second half.
6:44
Speaker 3: Two of them was averaging like more than ten yards
6:46
Speaker 3: on like the few carry I think he had like
6:48
Speaker 3: five touches and like eighty yards and didn't play a
6:51
Speaker 3: snap the second half, Like that's on Gohen.
6:54
Speaker 5: Yeah, they probably should have run it more, but they
6:57
Speaker 5: were moving the ball the Lawrence pick at the end.
6:59
Speaker 5: But yeah, to that the process, I mean, that was
7:02
Speaker 5: just a terrible play. You have to just go down
7:05
Speaker 5: the reason that you know, there's a couple of reasons
7:08
Speaker 5: how you know it was a bad play. Besides, you know,
7:11
Speaker 5: just logic one, the Jags wanted them to score, so
7:16
Speaker 5: they literally just backed off two. The live money line
7:22
Speaker 5: odds for the Jags improved after the Bills scored on
7:25
Speaker 5: that first on the first down play. But just think
7:29
Speaker 5: about this from a logic standpoint. There's a minute five
7:35
Speaker 5: to go and the Jags have no timeouts and it's
7:40
Speaker 5: first and goal with the one. If you go down
7:42
Speaker 5: at the ones, you just snap it. You could dive forward,
7:45
Speaker 5: you could do a quick knee. You run forty seconds
7:49
Speaker 5: off the clock, leaving the Jags with only twenty twenty
7:53
Speaker 5: five seconds when they get the ball back instead, and
7:56
Speaker 5: then you have by the way, people are like, oh, well,
7:58
Speaker 5: you know you have to take the points when you
7:59
Speaker 5: get them. Josh Allen and the Tush push are automatic,
8:03
Speaker 5: and you'd have three downs to do it. I mean,
8:06
Speaker 5: the chances of that are what ninety nine percent that
8:10
Speaker 5: they would score, and then you leave the Jags almost time.
8:12
Speaker 6: Compare that, Compare the.
8:14
Speaker 5: Chances of something going wrong a fumbled snap which could
8:16
Speaker 5: happen on first down too, to the Jags getting the
8:19
Speaker 5: ball with a minute five compared to twenty seconds and
8:22
Speaker 5: just getting to midfield.
8:25
Speaker 6: You know, you might just need.
8:27
Speaker 5: There's some chances where you would only need one first
8:29
Speaker 5: down to get into field goal range. So yeah, I
8:33
Speaker 5: just because Lawrence threw a pick does not mean that
8:38
Speaker 5: the process was right there. McDermott has messed up some
8:42
Speaker 5: endgame things in the past. We've seen the Chiefs. The
8:45
Speaker 5: Chiefs game, there were a couple of decisions there when
8:48
Speaker 5: there was only thirteen seconds left that led to them
8:51
Speaker 5: losing an overtime.
8:53
Speaker 6: So yeah, I did think that.
8:55
Speaker 5: That was a very very brained play that ended up
9:01
Speaker 5: working out for them. But ultimately it was, you know,
9:05
Speaker 5: sort of a coin flip game that the Bills made
9:08
Speaker 5: more high leverage plays like there in the first half,
9:11
Speaker 5: their offense had one good drive, you know, they got
9:13
Speaker 5: the bad Lawrence pick and then the bad that led
9:16
Speaker 5: to a field goal, the bad Lawrence pick at the
9:18
Speaker 5: end which killed the Jags chances of tying it, and
9:22
Speaker 5: that was ultimately the difference. And Josh Allen was incredible.
9:25
Speaker 5: Uh some of the throws that he made, the plays
9:28
Speaker 5: that he made down the stretch were were just awesome.
9:31
Speaker 5: So uh yeah, hat tip to the Bills for getting
9:35
Speaker 5: it done on the road. It's really a shame that
9:37
Speaker 5: the Jags won. It's really shame that both those teams
9:41
Speaker 5: had to play each other in the first.
9:43
Speaker 4: Round big time.
9:45
Speaker 5: Like, the Jags won the division and.
9:49
Speaker 2: Got screwed, and.
9:52
Speaker 4: It was the worst possible draw for them. Yeah, absolute worse.
9:55
Speaker 5: It was the worst possible draw of any team in
9:57
Speaker 5: the a f C for winning the division. And then
10:02
Speaker 5: you know, the Texans finish and second and get to
10:05
Speaker 5: play the Steelers who get blown out again in the playoffs.
10:08
Speaker 6: Same old song with them.
10:12
Speaker 1: Let's go to Monday Night Football our main dish for
10:16
Speaker 1: today's episode, The Texans dismantle the Steelers. Nicocollins ends up
10:20
Speaker 1: in concussion Protocol I think he's the only player by
10:23
Speaker 1: Mike count that entered concussion protocol and then stayed there.
10:27
Speaker 1: Everybody else it was like a rumor as to whether
10:30
Speaker 1: or not they actually were administered to any sort of test.
10:36
Speaker 1: But it was a close game at the half seven
10:38
Speaker 1: to six Houston, and then it was all Houston from there.
10:41
Speaker 1: Twenty three point fourth quarter almost went over the total
10:45
Speaker 1: despite the Steelers only kicking two field goals and scoring
10:48
Speaker 1: zero touchdowns. Dome team outdoors. Houston's been a great road
10:53
Speaker 1: team this year. They handled the conditions very well. They're
10:56
Speaker 1: gonna have to do it again in the divisional round.
10:59
Speaker 4: Stuck here.
11:00
Speaker 1: Biggest takeaway from the game last night with the Texans
11:04
Speaker 1: dusting the corpse of the Pittsburgh Steelers.
11:08
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean the Steelers got the breaks that they
11:10
Speaker 5: needed early, like with the turnovers, the fumbles. They were
11:14
Speaker 5: plus three and turnover margin at one point before the
11:17
Speaker 5: Texans added on a couple of defensive scores late. But
11:20
Speaker 5: their offense just couldn't do anything. That Texans defense it's
11:23
Speaker 5: there's no bells and whistles, it's just line up. They're
11:27
Speaker 5: not going to disguise anything, and their edge rush is
11:29
Speaker 5: elite their corners are elite, and the pressure just got
11:33
Speaker 5: to Rogers and they weren't able to move the ball consistently.
11:38
Speaker 5: I thought Straub was very shaky, uh, you know, especially
11:44
Speaker 5: with all the fumbles they had. They had snap issues,
11:46
Speaker 5: but they did enough. Christian Kirk was amazing in that game,
11:51
Speaker 5: and the story of the game was the the Texans
11:54
Speaker 5: defense just dominating that game. And it's just the same
11:59
Speaker 5: old with the Steelers. I mean, if you're a Steelers fan,
12:01
Speaker 5: you have to be exhausted with this. It's just like
12:04
Speaker 5: win nine or ten games, get into the playoffs, get
12:07
Speaker 5: blown out. I think it's the fifth straight time they've
12:09
Speaker 5: lost by double digits in the playoffs that they've lost
12:12
Speaker 5: having i think seven straight now playoff games.
12:16
Speaker 1: And as it turns out, that would be a stronger
12:18
Speaker 1: trend than the one that everyone was pointing to. While
12:21
Speaker 1: they haven't lost on Monday night football and however long,
12:25
Speaker 1: who the fuck cares what day they're playing on, Like
12:28
Speaker 1: that's any relevance. Not winning in the playoffs, Now, that's
12:31
Speaker 1: a trend. That's a trend that matters playing on Monday
12:35
Speaker 1: and playing well when this isn't even a traditional Monday
12:37
Speaker 1: night football game.
12:39
Speaker 3: They're just going to change it to whatever the stat
12:41
Speaker 3: would be in the regular season next time they're on
12:43
Speaker 3: Monday Night Football.
12:44
Speaker 2: That's a.
12:46
Speaker 6: Seven against the spreading straight up.
12:47
Speaker 5: I think seven straight losses is the most any coach
12:50
Speaker 5: ties Marvin Lewis, So, like, what is the future of
12:53
Speaker 5: the Steelers? Like they it's they're just stuck in limbo
12:57
Speaker 5: like that. They haven't and none of these teams that
12:59
Speaker 5: have made the playoffs over the past ten years have
13:01
Speaker 5: had a shot of winning the Super Bowl. They haven't
13:03
Speaker 5: found their franchise quarterback, and but they just keep winning
13:07
Speaker 5: nine ten games, And what is the future of Tomlin?
13:11
Speaker 6: I don't know.
13:12
Speaker 5: But if you're a Steelers fan, it's just like it's
13:15
Speaker 5: the same story over and over again, and because of
13:18
Speaker 5: where you finish, you end up not being able to
13:21
Speaker 5: get a high draft pic and then you just sort
13:23
Speaker 5: of like, let's just run it back. And you know,
13:26
Speaker 5: they paid Watt and then they got to find an
13:28
Speaker 5: aging veteran quarterback and they just don't have that ceiling.
13:31
Speaker 5: So I don't know, if I was a Steelers fan,
13:33
Speaker 5: i'd want to just blow it up start anew But
13:38
Speaker 5: I mean, there is some value in just being in
13:41
Speaker 5: the running every year like as a fan, just you know,
13:44
Speaker 5: instead of going through a couple of years where.
13:46
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's better than being awful.
13:48
Speaker 5: But it's it's it just gotta feel dejav like deja
13:52
Speaker 5: vous for the Steelers, for Steelers fans year and a.
13:55
Speaker 3: Year out, I will say, it does feel like a
13:58
Speaker 3: little bit of I hate anybody get hurt specifically like
14:01
Speaker 3: any kind of TBI, but it does feel like a
14:04
Speaker 3: universal equalizer that Nico's in concussion protocol and so is
14:07
Speaker 3: Christian Gonzalez.
14:09
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's a massive story because the Patriots don't have
14:16
Speaker 5: depth at corner, Like they have a couple of guys
14:20
Speaker 5: including Alex Austin that are on IR.
14:24
Speaker 6: And yeah, and then Nico Collins going up.
14:28
Speaker 5: So say it's no Gonzalez and you have Nico Collins
14:30
Speaker 5: out there, that could be a huge advantage for the Texans.
14:33
Speaker 5: If it's if it's Christian Gonzalez out there, no Nico Collins, right,
14:37
Speaker 5: then that's even more of an advantage for the Patriots defense.
14:41
Speaker 5: So which like it looked like Collins Collins number one
14:45
Speaker 5: has one fewer day, right, shorter short week.
14:49
Speaker 6: Playing on Monday night, and his look bad. Now it's
14:52
Speaker 6: the playoffs.
14:54
Speaker 5: No one will admit that, No teams will admit this,
14:56
Speaker 5: but concussion protocol seems to be a little less. Yeah so,
15:03
Speaker 5: but short week for Nico after how that looked that
15:09
Speaker 5: that was bad. So, But that's that's a huge storyline
15:12
Speaker 5: to watch in this game, is you know, Nico Collins
15:15
Speaker 5: and Christian Gonzalez, to do one of them play?
15:17
Speaker 6: Do both of them miss? Do both of them play?
15:20
Speaker 5: So that's that's something that I'll be monitoring closely throughout
15:24
Speaker 5: the week. But yeah, the Patriots defense I thought played well,
15:28
Speaker 5: played okay, but I thought, I mean, I was dead
15:31
Speaker 5: wrong in this game. I thought Justin Herbert was horrific.
15:34
Speaker 5: I mean, you guys are right, Cloff Herbert, there might
15:36
Speaker 5: be something there.
15:39
Speaker 6: I mean it was.
15:40
Speaker 1: He's now own three owned three in the playoffs, two touchdowns,
15:44
Speaker 1: seven turnovers during his time, there.
15:47
Speaker 5: Were throws to be made, and I mean he had
15:49
Speaker 5: time to throw in the first half. The Patriots don't
15:52
Speaker 5: have some elite pass rush, and in the second half,
15:54
Speaker 5: once they got a big lead, they just started blitzing
15:56
Speaker 5: and then there was and then it just snowballed from there.
15:58
Speaker 5: But in the first half, there was he had clean
16:01
Speaker 5: pockets at times, and there were open receivers down the field.
16:04
Speaker 5: There was a couple touchdowns that he had that he
16:07
Speaker 5: just didn't throw, and he looked completely frout. He looked
16:11
Speaker 5: like a rookie quarterback. It was shocking how bad he was.
16:16
Speaker 6: I believe.
16:17
Speaker 5: Don't quote me on this, but I believe he had
16:19
Speaker 5: a first percentile PFF grade. It was the second lowest
16:24
Speaker 5: single game playoff PFF grade of any quarterback over the
16:29
Speaker 5: past twenty years.
16:30
Speaker 4: Only the bottom.
16:33
Speaker 6: Joe Webb was the worst.
16:35
Speaker 5: But it was like he was shockingly bad and he
16:37
Speaker 5: wouldn't He just wasn't making throws that were to be
16:41
Speaker 5: had down the field. Now, the Chargers, I think Robert
16:47
Speaker 5: Splaine said this that some of the Chargers came up
16:50
Speaker 5: to him after the game and they were like, we
16:52
Speaker 5: have no idea. We had no idea what types of
16:54
Speaker 5: coverages you guys were in. Now, the Patriots, the Skies
16:56
Speaker 5: their coverage as well. They mix it up, but there
17:00
Speaker 5: were throwsy hat and Herbert just looked like he looked
17:02
Speaker 5: completely gun shy in the pocket. It was it was
17:06
Speaker 5: shocking to watch. So did you guys hear that was troubling?
17:11
Speaker 3: Did you guys hear about all the like them bragging
17:13
Speaker 3: about all of the weather gear that they had gotten.
17:17
Speaker 2: No, no, oh my god.
17:19
Speaker 3: This was like a huge news piece up here, probably
17:22
Speaker 3: obviously because the game was here, but about how they
17:25
Speaker 3: had bought all of this like tech year.
17:28
Speaker 2: They flew in all this different like warm weather stuff.
17:30
Speaker 3: We were gonna be wearing this and this kind of
17:32
Speaker 3: warmer and this and that, and everyone was just like okay.
17:37
Speaker 4: And that Derwin James was it wasn't it like thirty degrees?
17:40
Speaker 3: Well, it was definitely warmer up here than usual this weekend.
17:44
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's that's odd to you know.
17:45
Speaker 1: We're gonna go We're gonna go buy some Batman body
17:48
Speaker 1: tech so that we can stay warm and thirty degree weather.
17:51
Speaker 1: Let's talk some Let's talk some opening lines for the
17:55
Speaker 1: divisional round. We've got our plant the Flag games at
17:58
Speaker 1: the end of the pod Evans Tuesday Prime as well,
18:00
Speaker 1: help us get ready for the weekend. Our Thursday episode
18:04
Speaker 1: is where we officially set them in stone. The Rams
18:08
Speaker 1: opened as three and a half point favorites at Chicago.
18:10
Speaker 1: We've seen that line depending on where you look, bounce
18:13
Speaker 1: to four at some places.
18:15
Speaker 4: It's three and a half At Draft King.
18:17
Speaker 1: Still, the Seahawks opened as seven point favorites at home
18:20
Speaker 1: against the forty nine Ers, the third meeting between these
18:23
Speaker 1: two teams. They are now seven and a half point favorites.
18:27
Speaker 1: The Patriots opened US two and a half point favorites
18:29
Speaker 1: against the Texans. That line is up to a soft
18:32
Speaker 1: three minus one oh five on DK.
18:35
Speaker 4: And then this is where we've seen the most movement.
18:37
Speaker 1: The Broncos plus one and a half point underdogs against
18:42
Speaker 1: the Buffalo Bills. The Broncos, of course off the buy
18:45
Speaker 1: they're at home, Allen's all beat up. Well, now the
18:49
Speaker 1: Broncos are favored by a point and a half. It's
18:52
Speaker 1: at even money at plus one hundred. But this one's
18:54
Speaker 1: kind of dancing as it stands right now between the two.
18:59
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna ask you guys this question this way,
19:02
Speaker 1: rather than us diving into what side we're on with
19:07
Speaker 1: these games immediately, because we'll get to that point if
19:10
Speaker 1: I just asked you among the four games this weekend,
19:13
Speaker 1: trying to answer this without giving away your side on
19:16
Speaker 1: the game, which is the most fascinating evaluation, Kendra, We'll
19:22
Speaker 1: start with you on this of these four games, which
19:25
Speaker 1: one do you find yourself most likely to get in
19:30
Speaker 1: the weeds on I'll put it that way.
19:34
Speaker 3: Probably the Bears in the Rams. I feel like this
19:38
Speaker 3: one feels when you say in the weeds, you mean
19:41
Speaker 3: like about the conversation, Like.
19:42
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna need, Like I'm just gonna need as
19:45
Speaker 1: much detail as possible before I can make anything that
19:48
Speaker 1: resembles a decision on whichever game it is.
19:52
Speaker 3: Oh, well, then it's got to be the Patriots and
19:53
Speaker 3: the Texans because of the concussion protocol for Nico Collins
19:58
Speaker 3: and Christian Zalez, like their number one receiver and their
20:01
Speaker 3: number one corner.
20:02
Speaker 2: Like, it's definitely going to be that game. I'm gonna
20:04
Speaker 2: need injury.
20:04
Speaker 3: Reports, probably gonna wait and figure out what the weather is.
20:08
Speaker 3: The Seahawks and the forty nine Ers, we know what
20:09
Speaker 3: to anticipate there. Everybody's going to be, you know, injured
20:12
Speaker 3: for the forty nine ers, and what version of Sam
20:14
Speaker 3: Darnold are we going to get? Those are the two
20:15
Speaker 3: headlines the Bills headlined Josh Allen, the Texans and the Patriots.
20:20
Speaker 3: I think lots of injuries, lots of question marks of
20:22
Speaker 3: who's going to play.
20:23
Speaker 2: And then the Rams and the Bears.
20:25
Speaker 3: How I think the conversation of that is how hurd
20:27
Speaker 3: is Matt Stafford's hand?
20:28
Speaker 4: The end stuck you? What about you?
20:31
Speaker 6: Yeah, Stafford's finger. I don't know.
20:32
Speaker 5: I say it's gonna be okay, But then there's all
20:34
Speaker 5: the weather looks like it's gonna be okay across the
20:36
Speaker 5: world except in Chicago. It's just going to be really,
20:37
Speaker 5: really really cold. Stafford historically is not played well in
20:41
Speaker 5: the cold. You're going to see that stat a lot.
20:42
Speaker 5: I think he's like one in nine.
20:44
Speaker 2: High forty one. This is twenty nine here.
20:47
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is supposed to be the coldest game in
20:49
Speaker 1: his career. Also for a guy that doesn't perform well
20:52
Speaker 1: in cold weather.
20:53
Speaker 5: But last year in the snow in Philly, he played
20:56
Speaker 5: really well for what it's worth. So you always have
20:59
Speaker 5: to worry about sample sizes. It went with like his finger,
21:04
Speaker 5: how does that hould up? I would say as far
21:10
Speaker 5: as like what did what? I want to dive into
21:13
Speaker 5: the most, it's probably Patriots Texans. I mean the Patriots
21:18
Speaker 5: just tough to price because of their schedule, right, and
21:21
Speaker 5: then you played the Chargers. They finally faced a good
21:23
Speaker 5: defense and their offense didn't look great. I mean the
21:26
Speaker 5: Chargers defense did everything it could. They'll keep them in
21:28
Speaker 5: that game. I also thought Harball was really bad. Like
21:31
Speaker 5: you get two trips inside the two and you come
21:32
Speaker 5: away with three points, you go for it. You go
21:34
Speaker 5: for it the first time, to kick a field goal
21:36
Speaker 5: the second time, but like how and then Herbert was
21:40
Speaker 5: just so bad and like there were open receivers. And
21:42
Speaker 5: then obviously you had that Chargers offensive line, but the
21:45
Speaker 5: Texans offensive line isn't great either.
21:47
Speaker 1: And Stroud was bad that I'm worried he stirred the
21:51
Speaker 1: ball over three times.
21:52
Speaker 4: He got away with it.
21:52
Speaker 1: You're not gonna get away with that against New England
21:54
Speaker 1: if that were Yeah, you can.
21:55
Speaker 5: Get away with all those fumbles against the Steelers, but yeah,
22:01
Speaker 5: and then what will this Patriots offense look against the
22:04
Speaker 5: Texans defense? Like this Texans defense is good enough to
22:07
Speaker 5: carry them to a super Bowl, but the offense can't
22:11
Speaker 5: turn the ball over.
22:11
Speaker 6: And you can't.
22:13
Speaker 5: You can't go on the road and fumble it three
22:15
Speaker 5: or four times and have miss snaps when you're not playing.
22:18
Speaker 5: You know, a statue s Aaron Rodgers and that Steelers offense,
22:24
Speaker 5: the Bills Broncos. It seems pretty straightforward in that the
22:31
Speaker 5: Broncos should be able to run the ball here, which
22:34
Speaker 5: is gonna help bo Knicks can use his legs. The
22:36
Speaker 5: Bills have struggled against mobile quarterbacks, and then like they're
22:41
Speaker 5: gonna play a lot of man, which the Bills have
22:44
Speaker 5: struggled with because the receivers can't really get separation, and
22:48
Speaker 5: the Bills that wide receiver room, I mean, it just
22:50
Speaker 5: gets more decimated with each passing game, so it's hard
22:54
Speaker 5: to see the Bills getting open much. The Broncos are
22:58
Speaker 5: probably gonna load the box and you know, trust their
23:01
Speaker 5: corners on the outside, so that I think that that
23:03
Speaker 5: just comes down to, like what can how heroic can
23:08
Speaker 5: Josh Allen be? Because the Jaguars secondary is much worse
23:12
Speaker 5: than the Broncos secondary.
23:13
Speaker 6: They also play a lot more zone, which the Bills.
23:15
Speaker 2: I never want to see Greg Newsome again.
23:17
Speaker 5: They've had more success against. And then on the other side,
23:21
Speaker 5: it's just like the Bill's defense is not great. But
23:24
Speaker 5: what which version of bo Knicks do you get? I
23:26
Speaker 5: mean bow Knicks. He can be horrific at times, missing
23:31
Speaker 5: open receivers.
23:34
Speaker 3: Peyton Manning or brockwall Osweiler in that jersey, which one.
23:38
Speaker 4: Yeah, mating or broken Peyton Manning.
23:41
Speaker 5: But I do think that the Bills, I mean, the
23:43
Speaker 5: Broncos have more consistent, easier paths to offense with their
23:49
Speaker 5: running game and you know Bo Nicks's legs and than
23:56
Speaker 5: the Bills, who I don't. I don't know if they're
23:59
Speaker 5: receivers are going to be able to get open here,
24:02
Speaker 5: and that's gonna make it tough. But the wild guard
24:04
Speaker 5: is that you have Josh Allen versus Bonis and sometimes,
24:08
Speaker 5: like we can break down these games a lot, and
24:11
Speaker 5: but like, is Josh Allen in these AFC playoffs? Just
24:17
Speaker 5: the Mahomes of years pass?
24:20
Speaker 1: Right?
24:20
Speaker 5: Like you could like when Mahomes would play the Bills
24:24
Speaker 5: or the Ravens and they would be underdogs, and but
24:26
Speaker 5: you could just say, but we have Patrick Mahomes, which
24:29
Speaker 5: might it might be good enough. So we'll see how
24:36
Speaker 5: how Buffalo handles that Denver defense. But yeah, I'm looking
24:40
Speaker 5: forward to to all four games. The the Rams Bears,
24:46
Speaker 5: like the every every Bears game is the same, like
24:50
Speaker 5: it's just like a movie.
24:53
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm having a hard time with that one because
24:55
Speaker 1: I can you can kind of sense where the sharp
24:59
Speaker 1: money probably is and maybe that tilts some of your
25:03
Speaker 1: opinions based on the way that you want to bet
25:05
Speaker 1: this league. The Rams are going to be the sharp side,
25:08
Speaker 1: but the Bears all year have been the horseshoe, stuck
25:14
Speaker 1: in the ass team of the year, even more so
25:17
Speaker 1: than Denver, And both of those teams have mastered the
25:19
Speaker 1: art of being down in the fourth quarter and figuring
25:22
Speaker 1: out a way to win anyway. Chicago's just done it
25:24
Speaker 1: in more miraculous fashion. And of all the crowds that
25:28
Speaker 1: we saw this past weekend, and I thought Jacksonville's was tremendous, Kendrick,
25:32
Speaker 1: you can speak to that better than I can, because.
25:36
Speaker 4: I've been at all there.
25:37
Speaker 3: I've been at every postseason game that they've had except
25:42
Speaker 3: for the twenty seventeen AFC Championship game.
25:44
Speaker 2: But you also, like, I think people really showed out because.
25:47
Speaker 3: That's the last time fans are going to be in
25:48
Speaker 3: that stadium like that because they're renovating it, so next
25:51
Speaker 3: year a lot of it's going to be blocked off,
25:53
Speaker 3: and in the following.
25:54
Speaker 2: Year they're in Orlando. So the city really definitely showed out.
25:57
Speaker 1: But being able to hold being able to hold off
26:00
Speaker 1: Buffalo in the state of Florida is very difficult because
26:03
Speaker 1: the Snowbirds will show up.
26:04
Speaker 2: Because it's waiting room.
26:08
Speaker 1: But my point is that Chicago's I thought Chicago's crowd
26:11
Speaker 1: was the best of the weekend.
26:13
Speaker 4: They made a very real difference in the second game.
26:16
Speaker 2: It really did.
26:16
Speaker 3: Of that game, Gifford, I have videos of how loud
26:20
Speaker 3: it was, if you would like to include one in this,
26:22
Speaker 3: But I'm very drunk and booing, so.
26:25
Speaker 4: I'm assuming that will be hard.
26:27
Speaker 5: Yes, So yeah, I mean the Bear it's incredible that
26:32
Speaker 5: the wins that they've had, I mean they've now have
26:34
Speaker 5: seven wins. Been troun with them two minutes ago, and
26:37
Speaker 5: that game, I mean, he need Brandon McManus to miss
26:39
Speaker 5: three kicks and then you need a fourth and eight
26:43
Speaker 5: where if they don't call the false start, the snap
26:46
Speaker 5: goes over the head and the game is over. But
26:48
Speaker 5: a fourth and eight, it was a great throw by Caleb,
26:51
Speaker 5: but that game, you're down eleven if you don't get
26:55
Speaker 5: that fourth and eight with six minutes to go, and
26:57
Speaker 5: the game is over like that. It's incredible the things.
27:00
Speaker 5: And then the Packers at the end, they have no
27:02
Speaker 5: offensive lineman left, no timeouts, they get an injury or runoff,
27:06
Speaker 5: they get down on the twenty and then time runs
27:09
Speaker 5: out on them. But if McManus doesn't miss all those kicks,
27:13
Speaker 5: they could have kicked a field goal to tie it
27:15
Speaker 5: to win it. I mean, he probably would have missed
27:17
Speaker 5: another one. It was just a horrific game. Maybe it
27:20
Speaker 5: was poetic justice for the Bears. The last home game
27:24
Speaker 5: prior to that was the double doink and now you
27:26
Speaker 5: get the triple miss from McManus. But yeah, it's just like,
27:33
Speaker 5: can the Bears pull another one out of their ass?
27:35
Speaker 5: I mean, they this easily could have been a seven
27:37
Speaker 5: or eight win team during the regular season, but they
27:41
Speaker 5: seem to have some magic going.
27:44
Speaker 1: Yeah, and they have a quarterback that can do miraculous
27:48
Speaker 1: things at the end of games. They've got a good
27:50
Speaker 1: head coach, and the turnover differential has worked in their
27:53
Speaker 1: favor all year.
27:54
Speaker 4: All those things cater to being able.
27:57
Speaker 1: To put together unlikely wins at the end of games,
28:02
Speaker 1: and so I don't think it's a total accident. One
28:05
Speaker 1: thing that I think is really cool about this upcoming
28:07
Speaker 1: weekend is that we only have one rematch. The only
28:10
Speaker 1: one is the forty nine ers in the Seahawks. All
28:13
Speaker 1: the other games the other three are unique matchups. Trivia
28:18
Speaker 1: question for you guys, first one to buzz in to
28:20
Speaker 1: get the right answer is the winner. Here you win
28:22
Speaker 1: nothing of actual substance other than perhaps some self pride.
28:27
Speaker 1: The forty nine ers in the Seahawks met in week one,
28:30
Speaker 1: and in week eighteen. They now meet in the playoffs.
28:34
Speaker 1: Believe Evan can chime in on this. I believe the
28:37
Speaker 1: he mentions in the primer first time in NFL history
28:39
Speaker 1: Week one, last week of the season, and in the postseason.
28:43
Speaker 1: Does anybody remember the first game was in Seattle? What
28:46
Speaker 1: the point spread was in that game?
28:50
Speaker 5: Say this again the fort Evan playoffs. You just want
28:55
Speaker 5: to know that that spread from.
28:56
Speaker 1: I was asking the trivia question was I was just
28:59
Speaker 1: sort of layering some extra context. But so, this is
29:02
Speaker 1: the first time in NFL history that two teams will
29:04
Speaker 1: face off after meeting each other in the first week
29:06
Speaker 1: of the regular season and the last week of the
29:09
Speaker 1: regular season. But the trivia question is much more simplistic
29:12
Speaker 1: than that. What was the point spread in Week one
29:14
Speaker 1: when these two teams met in Seattle.
29:17
Speaker 3: I'm gonna guess a point and a half in favor
29:20
Speaker 3: of I'm gonna go La or I mean San Francisco,
29:24
Speaker 3: it was.
29:24
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think San fran was maybe a one point favorite.
29:27
Speaker 5: I mean coming into the year, there were there were questions, remember,
29:35
Speaker 5: like so the forty nine ers people were high on,
29:38
Speaker 5: Remember they were healthy then, and then the Seahawks. People
29:43
Speaker 5: were low on the Seahawks coming into the year with
29:46
Speaker 5: Sam Darnold and that offensive line, and so there were
29:50
Speaker 5: major questions about the Seahawks. So yeah, I think the
29:54
Speaker 5: forty nine Ers were tiny.
29:56
Speaker 4: Favorites, two and a half point favorites on the road.
30:00
Speaker 1: My how times have changed, and now they are seven
30:03
Speaker 1: and a half point underdogs. And I'm not saying that
30:05
Speaker 1: that's an overcorrection obviously, a big part of that is
30:08
Speaker 1: how good Seattle's been and how decimated the forty nine
30:12
Speaker 1: ers are in terms of their injuries. We're about to
30:14
Speaker 1: dive into our plant the Flag games, but first a
30:17
Speaker 1: word from our very own Kendra Middleton.
30:20
Speaker 3: The Favorites podcast is sponsored by DraftKings sportsbook and in
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Speaker 3: bonus bets. If you are bet wins, the crown is yours?
30:51
Speaker 4: All right, Kendra?
30:52
Speaker 1: Before we get to it official picks to start the week?
30:55
Speaker 1: What is on your mind?
30:57
Speaker 5: What selling you about?
31:01
Speaker 6: Could you've been?
31:07
Speaker 2: Okay?
31:07
Speaker 3: So, before I describe this, if I brought up electromagnetism
31:11
Speaker 3: in sports, would either of you know what I was
31:13
Speaker 3: talking about?
31:13
Speaker 2: Have you seen this news?
31:15
Speaker 4: No?
31:16
Speaker 2: Stuck?
31:17
Speaker 4: They have to do with magnets.
31:18
Speaker 2: Kind of stuck. Do you know what I'm talking about?
31:20
Speaker 5: If I say this, maybe is it the forty is
31:23
Speaker 5: it the forty nine ers?
31:25
Speaker 4: Yes?
31:25
Speaker 3: Okay, cravits so low frequency electromagnetic fields can degrade collagen,
31:31
Speaker 3: weak in tendons and cause soft tissue damage at levels
31:35
Speaker 3: regulators call safe. We have a real fast study proving this,
31:40
Speaker 3: and an NFL team whose practice facility sits next to
31:42
Speaker 3: a match. A massive electrical substrain, and the forty nine
31:46
Speaker 3: Ers have the most injured roster in the NFL this season.
31:51
Speaker 4: Thoughts, Yeah, makes sense.
31:55
Speaker 2: Is artans oil hat on as a podcast? Is marsic question?
31:58
Speaker 1: I am not a u I am not a professional scientist,
32:03
Speaker 1: but it sounds like it makes sense. You know, you've
32:05
Speaker 1: got people that live near polluted water that end up
32:09
Speaker 1: with a higher rate of frequency in terms of cancer
32:14
Speaker 1: and things of that nature.
32:15
Speaker 4: So yeah, it makes sense. I think that it's.
32:18
Speaker 1: Unfortunate for San Francisco that they've been put in this
32:22
Speaker 1: health bind, but I buy it.
32:25
Speaker 5: I have no idea, but I do think that there
32:27
Speaker 5: is something like if you go back the last ten years,
32:30
Speaker 5: the forty nine ers have been one of the unluckiest
32:33
Speaker 5: teams in terms of injuries, Like every year they had
32:37
Speaker 5: like one clean year when they went to the zeer Wold,
32:39
Speaker 5: but like average games lost to injury, they're always bottom
32:43
Speaker 5: one or two. So I don't know if it's some
32:46
Speaker 5: other outside force or like their training staff, if they're
32:52
Speaker 5: just missing something. But there's been too many years where
32:57
Speaker 5: there's it's just that it feels like it just can't be.
33:00
Speaker 3: Yeah, do we think it's like a future lawsuit situation, like,
33:03
Speaker 3: do you think that you could, like, could you sue?
33:05
Speaker 2: I don't know, Yeah, I mean.
33:08
Speaker 1: You can sue for anything. What's lot is that CMC
33:12
Speaker 1: is healthy of all of all the forty nine ers
33:14
Speaker 1: to not experience an injury this year. This year, Christian
33:18
Speaker 1: McCaffery one of the most often injured players in the NFL,
33:21
Speaker 1: and he's been clean bill of health all year.
33:24
Speaker 4: I do think part of it, too, outside of the.
33:26
Speaker 1: Electro magneticism, if I'm saying that right, is that this
33:30
Speaker 1: this has to be one of the oldest teams in
33:32
Speaker 1: the NFL.
33:33
Speaker 4: Fred Warner got hurt. He's old. George Kittle got hurt,
33:36
Speaker 4: he's old. There's Trent Williams, he's old.
33:41
Speaker 1: I think that probably plays as much a factor as
33:45
Speaker 1: some factory plant that's next to their practice facility.
33:49
Speaker 2: I don't know.
33:50
Speaker 3: I think I think my tenfoil hots on I'm fully woke.
33:53
Speaker 1: Okay, Is there is there any other context you would
33:56
Speaker 1: like to add in terms of your your opinion on
33:58
Speaker 1: the matter before we hand out.
34:01
Speaker 3: Some picks, not particularly on the injuries, but I would
34:05
Speaker 3: like to say justice for my man Robert Sala.
34:08
Speaker 2: The Jets were not his fault. He rules the end.
34:12
Speaker 4: Yes he does. Yes, that was.
34:14
Speaker 2: Fuck the New York Jets Boom Boom.
34:16
Speaker 1: Boom coaching coaching masterpiece by Shanahan. And I'll give most
34:22
Speaker 1: of the credit to Sala even though he's going up
34:24
Speaker 1: against an offense. I'm pretty sure they draw their plays
34:28
Speaker 1: on with crayon. In terms of what they're doing in Philadelphia.
34:33
Speaker 5: Seven drives for the Eagles, a twenty five percent dropback
34:36
Speaker 5: success rate against that defense. They run forty eight hitches
34:40
Speaker 5: on thirty seven dropbacks. Forty eight hitches. It's over one
34:44
Speaker 5: hitch per play. That's their They broke their own record
34:47
Speaker 5: early this season. I mean, I don't know. They kept
34:49
Speaker 5: running four verts at the end against quarters coverage, which
34:52
Speaker 5: is I mean, I don't know what the Eagles were doing.
34:56
Speaker 5: Ye have more injuries. Jayer Brown got hurt for the Niners.
34:58
Speaker 5: Kittle obviously, it does it. Fred Warner was saying, like
35:01
Speaker 5: a month ago, he's targeting being back to the Division round.
35:03
Speaker 5: Doesn't look like he will be back. We'll see on
35:07
Speaker 5: some some of the other linebackers, and Ricky Pearsall we'll
35:13
Speaker 5: see on him as well.
35:15
Speaker 6: Uh said.
35:15
Speaker 5: The I mean the Niners injury report always worth monitoring,
35:20
Speaker 5: but it's you have to give creditasal for what he did.
35:24
Speaker 5: I mean, he was down fifth, sixth, and seventh string
35:27
Speaker 5: linebackers and to get the job done in the road
35:30
Speaker 5: was definitely impressive, even though a lot of the blame also.
35:33
Speaker 6: Has to go to the Eagles for just the play
35:36
Speaker 6: calling and.
35:37
Speaker 5: They're they're they're just all year. It's like, it's amazing.
35:41
Speaker 5: I've never seen an offense just going to the tank
35:45
Speaker 5: for two quarters at a time almost every game. I mean,
35:48
Speaker 5: it's was stunning, no rhythm, no flow, no sense of urgency,
35:56
Speaker 5: and it was a fitting end of their season. But
35:59
Speaker 5: I don't know if that forty nine ers defense will
36:03
Speaker 5: have the same type of results against.
36:04
Speaker 1: Seattle, especially a team that will actually commit to the
36:08
Speaker 1: run and the forty nine Ers cannot stop it. I
36:13
Speaker 1: cannot find enough ways to throw Seattle money line into
36:17
Speaker 1: parlays this weekend. I'm not even I just I want
36:21
Speaker 1: nothing to do with the number. I just know I
36:23
Speaker 1: feel the most confident opinion I have headed into this weekend,
36:28
Speaker 1: which is not a hot take for a team favored
36:30
Speaker 1: by a touchdown and a hook, is that Seattle was
36:33
Speaker 1: beating San Francisco this it ends now, and I've had
36:37
Speaker 1: a pretty good beat on the forty nine ers. This
36:39
Speaker 1: is it, that was it. That was the perfect matchup
36:42
Speaker 1: for them going up against that vanilla offense. That team's
36:45
Speaker 1: broken in Philly after they just don't have the personalities
36:49
Speaker 1: to back up a Super Bowl championship.
36:51
Speaker 4: But anyway, let's yeah.
36:52
Speaker 5: I mean the offense, like the offense can do anything
36:55
Speaker 5: against Seattle the last time they played.
36:57
Speaker 6: It's going to take a you know, one.
36:59
Speaker 5: Of the the most one of the beautiful things about
37:02
Speaker 5: the playoffs and then one of the you know, the
37:04
Speaker 5: things that makes it very difficult to handicap is number one.
37:10
Speaker 5: The lines are very efficient this time of the year.
37:12
Speaker 5: But you could dive into like tendency and the NFL
37:15
Speaker 5: you're always going to be changing things from a week
37:17
Speaker 5: to week basis, but especially in the playoffs like this
37:19
Speaker 5: is when you change tendencies a ton and in the
37:23
Speaker 5: highest leverage games. And the forty nine ers did just
37:27
Speaker 5: play Seattle and couldn't do anything offensively. It's going to
37:30
Speaker 5: take a Shanahan masterclass for them, I think, to be
37:37
Speaker 5: able to put up enough points here. The way that
37:39
Speaker 5: you beat Donald too is that you got to get
37:42
Speaker 5: pressure on him, and like that's the forty nine ers
37:47
Speaker 5: are incapable of generating pressure. So like, this isn't the
37:53
Speaker 5: type of game where I think that Donald is going
37:57
Speaker 5: to struggle. And I mean, yes, that last game that
38:01
Speaker 5: they played looks relatively was what was it, thirteen to three,
38:08
Speaker 5: so it looks relatively close, But the Seahawks had twenty
38:12
Speaker 5: three first downs of the Niners nine. The total yarders
38:14
Speaker 5: is three sixty one to one seventy three. I mean
38:17
Speaker 5: that game was not as close as the final score indicated.
38:22
Speaker 5: I mean, you have the the Seahawks went sixty six
38:26
Speaker 5: yard drive, turned it over on downs, fifty five yard drive,
38:29
Speaker 5: missed a fueld goal, They settled for a couple other
38:32
Speaker 5: field goals after long drives. They missed a fuel goal
38:34
Speaker 5: after a ninety yard drive. Now, the forty nine Ers
38:37
Speaker 5: did throw a pick inside the five late that bounced
38:42
Speaker 5: off McCaffrey's hands, but if you watch that game, it
38:45
Speaker 5: was the Seahawks were completely dominant on a play by
38:48
Speaker 5: play basis. So I'm it's gonna have to be a
38:51
Speaker 5: Shanahan masterclass, and he's gonna have to come up with
38:53
Speaker 5: some You're gonna have to call up some more like
38:55
Speaker 5: reverse passes and uh, some creative ways to get guys
38:59
Speaker 5: open and you with the pressure that Seattle can generate
39:01
Speaker 5: without blitzing, I.
39:03
Speaker 1: Might commission that we throw the Seahawks money line in
39:06
Speaker 1: with whatever we come up with on Thursday. Make it
39:08
Speaker 1: a four leg Let's see if we can go that,
39:11
Speaker 1: or just eliminate someone's and throw that in there. Let's
39:13
Speaker 1: get throw our plant the flag games presented by DraftKings.
39:16
Speaker 4: The crown is yours.
39:19
Speaker 7: Might flag and it shut up.
39:20
Speaker 5: I'm trying to plant my flag here.
39:22
Speaker 1: Okay, you're really planting your flag in that thick Kendra,
39:25
Speaker 1: who you got?
39:26
Speaker 3: I came back from the airport literally fifteen minutes before
39:31
Speaker 3: our show. I went one in three last weekend. It
39:34
Speaker 3: was my worst weekend of the entire year. And my
39:37
Speaker 3: uber driver was a nice Lebanese man and he loved
39:40
Speaker 3: sports gambling, and he told me that he was all
39:43
Speaker 3: over the Patriots this week. He said that they were
39:46
Speaker 3: gonna kick ass, not even a Patriots fan, and I
39:48
Speaker 3: have to trust him. So since I couldn't hit a bet,
39:52
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with my uber driver's pick of the
39:54
Speaker 3: Patriots money line the end. I'm if I.
39:59
Speaker 2: Don't hit this, then I don't.
40:01
Speaker 3: It's like a reverse curse, like they're in bed jail
40:04
Speaker 3: for me, but now they're not. I have bet against
40:06
Speaker 3: them and they've won all year, and now that I'm
40:08
Speaker 3: on them, are they gonna lose?
40:10
Speaker 2: But I'm gonna go with my nice uber driver.
40:14
Speaker 1: What was what was his name? Remember John Sadan? So
40:19
Speaker 1: it's not really your play. So like there, they could
40:22
Speaker 1: still be in jail for you. You're just tailing.
40:24
Speaker 3: Sadan in Sadan, I trust, I have nowhere else to go,
40:28
Speaker 3: nothing else to do.
40:29
Speaker 2: Shout out Sadan, I'm tailing.
40:33
Speaker 4: Black planted Stucky who you got.
40:36
Speaker 5: Yeah, I haven't bet anything yet still, I mean we're
40:40
Speaker 5: really at the dive in this time of the year
40:42
Speaker 5: to these games. So that's what I'll be spend in
40:44
Speaker 5: the next couple of days doing at over fifty one.
40:48
Speaker 5: I thought about the Bears rams under it's not fifty
40:51
Speaker 5: and a half. I mean that's a in freezing cold temperatures.
40:55
Speaker 5: That's a very high number. Now it's hard, just like
40:57
Speaker 5: which defense is getting stops. I mean the Rams secondary
41:00
Speaker 5: is over the past month and a half has been torched.
41:03
Speaker 5: I mean all of their games have been absolute shootouts,
41:06
Speaker 5: but I mean the outdoor totals in the playoffs a
41:12
Speaker 5: forty seven or above, which is a key number, fifty
41:14
Speaker 5: two to twenty seven and two, it's sixty six percent.
41:17
Speaker 5: I think they're sixty seven percent at fifty one or above.
41:21
Speaker 5: So I thought about that, but.
41:24
Speaker 6: I'm going to go. I also thought I might.
41:26
Speaker 5: Play the Broncos first half again. I faded the Bills
41:30
Speaker 5: last week, but I would make that bet again. I mean,
41:31
Speaker 5: if Washington doesn't get hurt and all Pro misses a
41:34
Speaker 5: kick and then you got a fourth down stop on
41:36
Speaker 5: a on a fluke play that took seven off the board,
41:40
Speaker 5: and you know they still had a chance to to push.
41:44
Speaker 5: So I might look at the Broncos first half. Although
41:47
Speaker 5: Sean Payton in the playoffs is just six and twelve
41:50
Speaker 5: against the spread in the first half, for what it's worth,
41:54
Speaker 5: but I'm.
41:54
Speaker 6: Going to go.
41:55
Speaker 5: Linees more efficient this time of the year, which makes teasers,
41:58
Speaker 5: specifically teasers across three and seven more valuable. So I
42:04
Speaker 5: think one of the better players on the board teasing
42:06
Speaker 5: the Seahawks from seven and a half down to one
42:09
Speaker 5: and a half and then the Texans from two and
42:14
Speaker 5: a half up to eight and a half that one.
42:19
Speaker 5: There's still some uncertainty with Nego Collins and Christian Gonzalez.
42:22
Speaker 5: I actually think Gonzalez would be a bigger loss than Collins. Now,
42:26
Speaker 5: Collins would give them more upside if Gonzalez doesn't play.
42:29
Speaker 5: But the Texans did develop some depth at receiver when
42:32
Speaker 5: Collins was out earlier this year.
42:35
Speaker 2: So they have nowhere.
42:37
Speaker 5: So yeah, now the emergence of Kirk, but they have
42:41
Speaker 5: some options. But mainly this is just you're gonna get
42:44
Speaker 5: me over a touchdown. With a total that's sitting at
42:47
Speaker 5: forty one, I think it makes some sense and that
42:51
Speaker 5: Texans defense will keep them in the game. And we
42:52
Speaker 5: saw that the Patriots offense, which didn't play a defense
42:57
Speaker 5: with a pulse all year, looked a lot more pedestrian
43:02
Speaker 5: against the Chargers defense. And the Chargers defense was getting
43:05
Speaker 5: the charges. Defense isn't known for getting elite pressure. Would
43:07
Speaker 5: they sacked May like five or six times. They were
43:10
Speaker 5: getting constant pressure. So I worry about the especially that
43:15
Speaker 5: the left side of the Patriots offensive line, I mean
43:18
Speaker 5: Will Campbell was getting abused blegend So going up against
43:24
Speaker 5: that Texans pass rush, I could see may under constant fire.
43:30
Speaker 6: Now the same you.
43:31
Speaker 5: You're gonna probably get a heavy blitz package from the
43:34
Speaker 5: Patriots again.
43:35
Speaker 2: Could I think they're getting Tonga back.
43:39
Speaker 5: Yeah, I could get Tonga back, but I think it
43:42
Speaker 5: just makes sense to tease that over seven in a
43:46
Speaker 5: in a game with a total forty one. So I
43:48
Speaker 5: we'll go Seahawks Texans teaser. I mean, he's yeh, Seahawks Texans.
43:53
Speaker 1: Caesar speaking my language over here. I'm gonna go with
43:57
Speaker 1: the Bills money line. I don't trust the Broncos. I
44:01
Speaker 1: think they're one of the most overrated one seeds of
44:04
Speaker 1: my lifetime. Their defense is great, their offense is average
44:08
Speaker 1: at best. Denver failed to get to twenty or past
44:12
Speaker 1: twenty and their final three games their last two games
44:15
Speaker 1: were against the Chiefs and the Chargers, essentially their backups.
44:19
Speaker 1: Definitely for the Chargers, the Chiefs were just broken at
44:21
Speaker 1: the end of the year, still couldn't score. The Jags
44:24
Speaker 1: held them to twenty and that was on their home field.
44:26
Speaker 1: The defense is great. One of their big weaknesses is
44:29
Speaker 1: against slot wide receivers. Well, that's what Khalil Shakira is.
44:34
Speaker 1: So if you want to go next level, I mean
44:36
Speaker 1: Josh Allen just against man coverage. If you turn your
44:40
Speaker 1: back to him and you allow him to take off,
44:43
Speaker 1: then that's where he's the most dangerous. I fear that
44:47
Speaker 1: the Broncos will not commit to the run the way
44:49
Speaker 1: that they absolutely should against Buffalo, the way that Jacksonville
44:53
Speaker 1: failed miserably, and doing that, they were way too committed
44:56
Speaker 1: to their game plan and what they've been all year,
44:58
Speaker 1: which is run to set up the pass. Well, all
45:01
Speaker 1: they had to do was run against Buffalo. Bagel Touton
45:05
Speaker 1: was unstoppable in this game. They went away from him.
45:07
Speaker 1: Made no sense whatsoever. Sixty three percent pass rate and
45:11
Speaker 1: neutral situations are the Denver Broncos. That's not how you
45:14
Speaker 1: want to play against the Buffalo Bills. Alan is in
45:17
Speaker 1: hero ball mode. I think he goes out and gets
45:19
Speaker 1: a win. Now on the teaser front, I am playing
45:22
Speaker 1: this from both sides, so I want to be completely
45:24
Speaker 1: transparent on this.
45:26
Speaker 4: I like the Bills on the money line. I also
45:29
Speaker 4: tease the.
45:29
Speaker 1: Broncos when they were one and a half up to
45:31
Speaker 1: seven and a half and the Seahawks down to one.
45:34
Speaker 1: So I would love if this was a Bill's win
45:39
Speaker 1: somewhere between one and seven. That would be ideal profit
45:43
Speaker 1: for me, but I do like the Bills on the
45:45
Speaker 1: money line. Anybody want to yell at me about it
45:47
Speaker 1: this week?
45:48
Speaker 2: I can't yell you you you you you can't. I
45:51
Speaker 2: literally can't.
45:53
Speaker 8: No.
45:53
Speaker 5: I have no strong opinion on the full game, So
45:57
Speaker 5: I'm fine with you. Run your take, Josh Allen in
45:59
Speaker 5: the playoffs of a bonick.
46:00
Speaker 6: That's fine.
46:01
Speaker 4: So a two recap. I was letting that marinate for
46:04
Speaker 4: a moment.
46:05
Speaker 1: By the way, Kendra, thank you for that Patriots money
46:08
Speaker 1: line against the Texans teaser. Seahawks down to a point,
46:13
Speaker 1: Texans up to eight and a half, and I've got
46:15
Speaker 1: the Bills money line. That all presented by Draft Kings
46:20
Speaker 1: where the crown is yours.
46:22
Speaker 4: Now for the main event.
46:23
Speaker 1: No betting week can start without it, especially when you
46:26
Speaker 1: get to the playoffs. The primer courtesy of Evan Abrams. Evan,
46:32
Speaker 1: Welcome to the show. How did you do this past weekend?
46:36
Speaker 8: I put four picks in the app and went two
46:38
Speaker 8: and two one loss. That sucked.
46:40
Speaker 7: I had Jaden Reid under three and a half receptions.
46:42
Speaker 7: He got that fourth reception on that final catch. So
46:46
Speaker 7: but that's what ends up happening. When you end up
46:48
Speaker 7: taking unders, you get stabbed in the heart. I also
46:50
Speaker 7: said Parkinson over receiving yards on that last catch. So
46:53
Speaker 7: you know, give if, take if, what's that we do here?
46:57
Speaker 1: So we have a couple of teams that get to
46:59
Speaker 1: they were able to sit back and watch the wild
47:02
Speaker 1: Card round just like the rest of us. The Seahawks
47:05
Speaker 1: and the Broncos off of a bye. How have those
47:08
Speaker 1: teams performed in recent years?
47:12
Speaker 7: You know, kravitz by suck, especially for covering the spread.
47:16
Speaker 7: I mean, that's what we've seen historically. So just blanketed
47:19
Speaker 7: since O three home team's division round coming off of bye,
47:22
Speaker 7: forty three percent ats three and seven ats since twenty
47:26
Speaker 7: twenty in that Seattle spot, when you're a favorite of
47:30
Speaker 7: seven plus seventeen and twenty six forty percent, so.
47:34
Speaker 8: It's usually pretty difficult.
47:35
Speaker 7: But you also aren't usually facing an electrocuted team who's
47:39
Speaker 7: missing half their roster. So we'll have to see how
47:42
Speaker 7: that San Francisco walking Dead does in this situation.
47:47
Speaker 1: What about Chicago? They came back down twenty one to three,
47:51
Speaker 1: could have even been more if McManus could make a
47:54
Speaker 1: kick or two. They're off of one of the most
47:58
Speaker 1: epic comebacks in playoff history. I would guess that teams
48:02
Speaker 1: in that situation do not perform well the following week,
48:06
Speaker 1: would I be correct?
48:08
Speaker 8: Yeah, you're right.
48:09
Speaker 7: It's also one of the craziest situations we've seen so Chicago.
48:12
Speaker 7: Being a home underdog in back to back games in
48:16
Speaker 7: the playoffs is just not something we really see, right, Like,
48:19
Speaker 7: usually you win the first game and everyone's like, oh wow,
48:22
Speaker 7: look at this team, and you end up as a favorite.
48:24
Speaker 7: This would be just the second time a team is
48:27
Speaker 7: an home underdog in back to back playoff games. The
48:30
Speaker 7: Eagles did it in seventeen eighteen, and the Bears are
48:33
Speaker 7: the first team in NFL history and since we've had
48:36
Speaker 7: wildcards to do it in Wildcard and Divisional.
48:38
Speaker 8: So we've never seen a team be home dog in
48:40
Speaker 8: back to backs.
48:42
Speaker 7: Crazy there, and you mentioned it yourself. I'll give you
48:45
Speaker 7: a few here. So those teams, and you've seen the
48:48
Speaker 7: stat everywhere. Teams leading a playoff game by fifteen plus
48:51
Speaker 7: start of the fourth quarter have lost two games before
48:53
Speaker 7: the Super Bowl. The twenty two forty nine Ers over
48:56
Speaker 7: the Giants, the seventy two Cowboys of the Niners. They
48:58
Speaker 7: both lost the following week by a combined score. I'm
49:02
Speaker 7: gonna do quick math of fifty seven to nine in
49:06
Speaker 7: their next game, which.
49:08
Speaker 8: Is absolutely terrible. I'll go one further.
49:11
Speaker 7: Since division re alignment in two thousand and two, teams
49:14
Speaker 7: that after coming back from ten plus points down in
49:16
Speaker 7: the playoffs just eight and twenty two in the next
49:19
Speaker 7: playoff game and five and fifteen in aning round before
49:22
Speaker 7: the Super Bowl. So yes, very difficult to bounce back.
49:25
Speaker 7: But Chicago's seeing a little bit of love here. Sixty
49:28
Speaker 7: five percent of tickets early week lines come down at TAD.
49:32
Speaker 7: I saw some fours now three and a half, so
49:34
Speaker 7: we will see that.
49:37
Speaker 5: Teams also teams off of a home teams off of
49:39
Speaker 5: a win, and now right win is a home dog
49:42
Speaker 5: in the wild card round since two thousand and three,
49:48
Speaker 5: which is what our database goes back to zero to
49:51
Speaker 5: twelve straight up. Yeah, against the spread. One of the
49:57
Speaker 5: covers was the the jag when uh, they're not the Jags.
50:03
Speaker 5: It was the Texans when the Chiefs took that intentional
50:06
Speaker 5: safety at the end of the game.
50:09
Speaker 4: Do you remember that it wasn't even a real cover.
50:11
Speaker 5: Yeah, So teams off of a win as a home
50:14
Speaker 5: dog the next round historically, No, it's only a twelve
50:17
Speaker 5: game sample.
50:17
Speaker 6: Size, but it has been pretty most of those games
50:20
Speaker 6: have been blowouts.
50:23
Speaker 4: We are outdoors for all of these.
50:25
Speaker 1: You had that the stat the trend of unders wild
50:30
Speaker 1: card round outdoors went four and two to the under.
50:33
Speaker 4: So thank you for that.
50:34
Speaker 1: Was able to add that to the profit sheet this
50:37
Speaker 1: past weekend. Do we have anything similar in the divisional round?
50:41
Speaker 8: It usually evens out.
50:42
Speaker 7: That is a very wild CARDI stat once we get
50:46
Speaker 7: to this time of year, it does even out of it.
50:48
Speaker 8: I know, Stuck you had just talked about.
50:50
Speaker 7: I mean mostly outdoor games, totals in that higher range
50:54
Speaker 7: do go under the total.
50:56
Speaker 8: But I'll add it to the primer if there's anything
50:58
Speaker 8: interest in there.
50:59
Speaker 6: Yeah, card round it's like twenty and three to the
51:01
Speaker 6: under or something.
51:03
Speaker 1: It's still probably because you have some of the offenses
51:07
Speaker 1: that make it to the playoffs just aren't very good,
51:09
Speaker 1: and I would think that that has something to do
51:11
Speaker 1: with it too, and those teams get weeded out by
51:14
Speaker 1: the time you get to the divisional round, like Pittsburgh
51:16
Speaker 1: is a good example. That game should have gone over
51:18
Speaker 1: last night, but Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh's ineptitude on offense is what
51:23
Speaker 1: held it below the total.
51:25
Speaker 4: Yeah, anything else for Evan before we cut them loose.
51:30
Speaker 3: Is there any major red flags that you don't think
51:33
Speaker 3: people are talking about that we should be aware of.
51:37
Speaker 4: Great question.
51:39
Speaker 8: I mean I will say this so and stuck. You
51:41
Speaker 8: kind of alluded to it.
51:42
Speaker 7: Teams win as an underdog wildcard round are eight and
51:45
Speaker 7: thirty straight up in the divisional round. So when is
51:48
Speaker 7: an underdog in the wildcard round? Usually difficult to repeat that.
51:51
Speaker 7: Since twenty eleven they are three and twenty two. So
51:55
Speaker 7: that's San Francisco, Buffalo, and Chicago. So just a difficult
51:59
Speaker 7: spot to do it again.
52:02
Speaker 4: Okay, I'll check it out.
52:03
Speaker 6: I think I also had that I'm really looking forward
52:05
Speaker 6: to is in the NFC. I mean, it's weird, it's crazy.
52:07
Speaker 5: We have three NFC West teams out of the the
52:11
Speaker 5: NFC West and the Bears. By the way, I bet
52:15
Speaker 5: the Cardinals to win that division before the year, so, uh,
52:19
Speaker 5: what a bet? We got three teams left in the
52:22
Speaker 5: division around I bet the one that didn't make the
52:23
Speaker 5: playoffs to win the division. But the NFC coaches are awesome.
52:30
Speaker 5: You have Ben Johnson versus McVeigh, Shanahan versus McDonald and
52:37
Speaker 5: like coaching in the playoffs and just coming up with
52:42
Speaker 5: you know, schematic wrinkles new like, that's what decides these
52:47
Speaker 5: games that are close. So in the NFC, these coaches
52:51
Speaker 5: that are left, I can't wait to just see what
52:53
Speaker 5: they come up with.
52:55
Speaker 8: And to answer your question, grab it.
52:57
Speaker 7: So fifty seven wild card unders out yours divisionals thirty
53:01
Speaker 7: seven and thirty three really comes back to even.
53:04
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, that's not playable based on that. Thanks so much, Evan.
53:07
Speaker 1: Go and check out the primary Action Network dot com
53:09
Speaker 1: or on the Action Network app. That'll do it for
53:11
Speaker 1: today's episode special thanks to our producers David Paine and
53:15
Speaker 1: Gifford Gold.
53:15
Speaker 4: The Favorites. We'll be back on Thursday right here.
53:19
Speaker 1: On the Action Network YouTube page where we talk divisional round,
53:22
Speaker 1: best bets, more information on these injuries, and some solidified plays.
53:27
Speaker 1: Two Kings and a Queen Parlay will nominate those as well.
53:31
Speaker 1: We'll see you next time here on the Favorites presented
53:33
Speaker 1: by Draft King to the Crown is yours.
53:45
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53:49
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53:55
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