Latest / Simply Bitcoin / The Fed Cuts Rates... and Michael Saylor Says $150K Bitcoin Is Next! | Simply Originals

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The Fed Cuts Rates... and Michael Saylor Says $150K Bitcoin Is Next! | Simply Originals · Simply Bitcoin

0:00
The Fed just pulled the trigger again.
0:02
Another rate cut and just like that, Bitcoin dips to 108 K.
0:09
OK, Fox News alert. We've got that key interest rate
0:11
decision. It is out now the Federal
0:13
Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points.
0:17
That's a quarter point and the markets have been rallying into
0:20
this decision. The Dow up 150 points right now
0:23
at an another record high, although there's a bit of sell
0:27
off happening on the news, as does sometimes happen.
0:31
Welcome to another hour of America.
0:32
You can hear the panic echoing across the timeline.
0:35
Dudes who were bulls turned to bears and started dancing around
0:40
like Buffalo Bill. But listen, not for Bitcoin.
0:48
The full faith and credit of the United States is cracking.
0:52
Jerome Powell even knows we're on an unsustainable path.
0:56
This isn't about 25 basis points.
0:58
This is about the end of an era and the beginning of the next.
1:01
Because while Powell's printing confetti, Michael Saylor's
1:05
calling for 150K Bitcoin by the end of the year.
1:09
Hell yeah, baby. Well, I think Bitcoin is going
1:17
to continue to grind up. I think the volatility is coming
1:21
off of it as the industry becomes more structured with
1:24
more derivatives and more ways to hedge it.
1:27
Our, our expectation right now is the end of the year.
1:30
It should be about $150,000. And that's the consensus of the
1:35
equity analysts that cover our, our company and the Bitcoin
1:38
industry right now. I don't know why it won't grind
1:42
up to $1,000,000 a coin over the next 4 to 8 years.
1:46
I would think not less than 4, not more than 8.
1:49
And of course, my long term forecast is it goes up about 30%
1:53
a year for the next 20 years and we're headed toward $20 million
1:57
Bitcoin. Michael, thank you so much.
2:00
Yeah, my pleasure. Let's start with the rate cut
2:02
heard round the world. the Fed just made its second rate cut of
2:06
2025, officially ending QT on December 1st.
2:10
That means no more balance sheet reduction translation.
2:14
QE 5 just snuck in the back door wearing a fake mustache.
2:18
Oh, and what's this? Powell said they'll start adding
2:22
reserves. So you're right, the, the, the
2:25
place we'll be on December 1 is that the size of the balance
2:28
sheet is frozen. And as mortgage-backed
2:30
securities mature, we'll reinvest those in treasury
2:33
bills, which will foster both a more treasury balance sheet and
2:38
also a shorter duration. So that's what in the meantime,
2:41
if you freeze the size of the balance sheet, the non reserve
2:43
liabilities currency for example, they're going to
2:45
continue to grow organically. And because of the size of the
2:48
balance sheet is frozen, you have further shrinkage in, in
2:51
reserves and reserves is the thing that we're that we're
2:54
managing that has to be ample. So that'll happen for a time,
2:58
but not a not a tremendously long time.
3:00
We don't know exactly how long, but at a certain point you'll
3:03
want to start grow, you want to start reserves to start
3:06
gradually growing to keep up with, you know, the size of the
3:09
banking system and the size of the economy.
3:11
So we'll be adding reserves at a certain point.
3:15
And that's the, that's the last point even then will be, will
3:18
be, we didn't make decisions about this today, but you, we
3:22
did talk today about the composition of the balance
3:25
sheet. And there's a desire that the,
3:27
that the balance sheet be right now we, we're, it, it's, it's
3:30
got a lot more duration than the outstanding universe of treasury
3:34
securities. And we want to move to a place
3:36
where we're closer to that duration.
3:38
That'll take some time. We haven't made a decision about
3:40
the ultimate end point, but we all agree that we want to move
3:43
more in the direction of a of a balance sheet that more closely
3:46
reflects the outstanding treasuries and that means a
3:49
shorter duration balance sheet. Now this is something that's
3:53
going to be take a long time and move very, very gradually and I
3:57
don't think you'll notice it in market conditions, but but
4:00
that's that's the direction of things.
4:01
What? The hell is he talking about?
4:03
But anyway, that's probably Fed speak for we're out of ammo, so
4:07
let's print some more. Now Powell's pretending this
4:09
isn't QE, but come on, the Fed's been quietly reinvesting
4:13
Treasuries into new bills. That's liquidity injection one O
4:17
1. And what happens when liquidity
4:19
floods the system? Stocks fake a recovery, the rich
4:22
get richer and Bitcoin gets jet fuel.
4:25
So why the dip? Well, because people are
4:27
confusing short term price action with a long term
4:30
conviction. Every empire hits this face when
4:33
the currency starts dying, the rulers start lying, cut rates,
4:37
pause QT, spin the narrative, rinse and repeat.
4:39
The truth is the pivot is here. the Fed can't walk it back now
4:43
even though Jerome said this. Now, this is a longer clip from
4:46
his speech yesterday, but pay attention and we'll talk about
4:49
what was said that everyone is missing right after it, and why
4:53
Jerome's statement isn't as hawkish as it appears to be.
4:57
Here we go. So.
4:58
Mr. Chairman, I want to take another crack at the at the
5:00
further reduction in rates is not a foregone conclusion.
5:04
So in December he said far from it.
5:06
So if a cut might not be on the table for December because of
5:10
lack of data, what is the other concerns then stem from?
5:15
So if it's not lack of data as as the reason December it is, is
5:19
not a foregone conclusion. What other things could be the
5:22
concern then? Well, the perspective is on of
5:24
people on the committee that, you know, we've now moved 150
5:28
basis points and that we're down into, you know, you're into the
5:33
that range between 3:00 and 4:00 where most estimates of many
5:38
estimates of the neutral rate live in that 3 to 4% here you're
5:42
there now you're, you're above the median number for the
5:45
committee. But I think there are people on
5:47
the committee who have higher estimates of the neutral rate.
5:50
And that's a, you know, you can argue these positions since it
5:52
can't be directly observed to neutral rate.
5:54
So, you know, I, I think for, for, for some part of the
6:00
committee, you know, it's time to maybe take a step back and,
6:04
and, and, and see whether there, there really are downside risk
6:09
to the labor market or see whether in fact, the, the growth
6:13
that the stronger growth that we're seeing is, is real.
6:17
Ordinarily the labor market is a better indicator of the momentum
6:21
of the economy than the spending data.
6:23
That's the lore in this case that gives a more downbeat read.
6:29
So people just have, you know, they're again, we've cut 50 more
6:33
basis points in the last two meetings.
6:35
And there was a sense like let's perform some let's let's let's
6:40
pause here kind of thing and a sense from others wanting to go
6:43
ahead. But that's why I say differing
6:47
views, strongly differing views. And so on that division then
6:50
you're talking about going forward.
6:52
So what's more important to in this division?
6:54
Is it inflation risks, is it employment risk?
6:57
Or is is there a deeper philosophy division among the
7:00
board? I, I look, everybody on the
7:03
committee is deeply committed to doing the right thing to achieve
7:08
our goals. Maximum employment and stable
7:09
prices. You have differences on how to
7:11
do that. And as I mentioned, some of that
7:14
is different forecasts, but a lot of it is also different risk
7:18
aversions to the different to, to do different variables, which
7:21
is common through, you know, through all Federal Reserve
7:24
there there did people just have different risk tolerances, let's
7:28
say. So that leads you to people with
7:30
disparate views. You will know that from the
7:33
speeches you've been listening to from my colleagues.
7:35
And, and so we're at a place now where we have in fact cut two
7:39
more times and you know, we're now we're 150 basis points
7:43
closer to neutral, wherever that may be than we were a year ago.
7:46
And so there's, there's a growing chorus now of a feeling
7:50
like maybe this is where we should at least wait a cycle,
7:53
something like that. That's, that's what it is.
7:55
It's just what you think it would be.
7:56
It's and again, you've seen it in the, in the, the September
8:00
summer of economic projections. You've seen this in the, in the
8:03
public remarks of FOMC participants.
8:05
And and now I'm telling you that's what that's what you can
8:08
expect that in the minutes. And I'm just telling you that's
8:11
what happened in the meeting. Elizabeth, thank you so much.
8:16
Lisa Schulte with ABC News, what is your explanation for why the
8:21
job market is weakening right now?
8:23
And what will this rate cut do to improve the job market?
8:28
So the, I think the there are two things affecting the job
8:32
market and one of them is just a dramatic reduction in the supply
8:37
of new workers. So and that's two things.
8:41
That's declining labor force participation, which is a
8:46
cyclical thing. And then there's declining
8:47
immigration, which is just a big policy change that actually
8:51
began in the last administration and it has been accelerated now.
8:54
So a big part of the whole story is that that supply Side Story,
8:59
OK. In addition, labor demand has
9:01
declined and, and you know, the so the labor, the unemployment
9:04
rate has gone down, meaning that demand for workers is going down
9:06
a little more than supply. So that's, that's what's going
9:11
on. And but it is mostly a supply
9:14
function. That's a, you know, it's mostly
9:16
a function of, of the change in supply, I think, and many people
9:20
think so. The question then is what does,
9:22
what does the, you know, our tool do which supports demand?
9:26
And you know, so, and I would just say when you're, when
9:30
you're in a situation where job, job creation, if you adjust for
9:36
likely over counting in the way that BLS does its work is pretty
9:41
close to 0. So maximum employment doesn't on
9:46
a sustainable basis doesn't if it's, if you're making creating
9:49
zero jobs, if it's in equilibrium, if it's, if it's in
9:52
balance, it's a pretty as I, as I said before, a pretty curious
9:56
balance. So, you know, I thought any of
9:59
my colleagues thought, in fact, you've seen the last two
10:02
meetings that it was appropriate for us to react by supporting
10:05
demand with our, with our rates. And we've done that.
10:09
We've we've reduced so that rates are looser there.
10:12
I wouldn't say that they're accommodative right now, but
10:14
they're meaningfully less tight than they were.
10:17
And that should help so that at least the labor market doesn't,
10:21
doesn't get worse, though it's, it's a complicated situation.
10:24
And, and some people argue that that this is supply and we
10:27
really can't affect it much with our tools.
10:30
But others argue, as I do, that, that there is an effect from
10:33
demand and that that we should use our tools to support the
10:36
labor market when we see this happening.
10:38
Powell didn't just cut rates, he played politics live on stage.
10:42
He basically told Congress, reopen the government or no
10:45
December cut for you. No soup.
10:47
It wasn't policy guidance, it was a hostage negotiation.
10:52
Markets freaked out, Treasury yield spiked, Bitcoin dipped,
10:55
and everyone screamed hawkish. But here's the inside baseball.
10:58
This was not a hawkish move. It was leverage.
11:01
This was conditionality. Powell saying give me data,
11:05
reopen DC and I'll have cover to print again.
11:08
You can't call this tightening when the feds already declared
11:11
an end to QT. That's like saying you're on a
11:14
diet while ordering dessert before the meal.
11:17
Complete battery, so the headlines read.
11:20
No guarantee of a December cut. But what really happened?
11:23
Powell just greenlit the next liquidity flood right as his own
11:27
term expires in six months. Says you're gone, you're gone,
11:31
and Powell's about to be the full guy for 50 years of
11:35
Keynesian clown math. Every empire dies the same way.
11:38
Military overreach, reckless spending, currency debasement,
11:42
inflation, lost trust until collapse.
11:45
Rome did it, Weimar did it. Even Powell knows we are on an
11:49
unsustainable fiscal path. How do you?
11:52
Assess. The national debt, we mostly try
11:55
very hard not to comment on fiscal policy and and, you know,
12:00
instruct Congress on how to do their job when it actually they
12:02
have oversight over us. But is the national debt a
12:05
danger to the economy in your review?
12:07
In the long run? the US is on an unsustainable
12:11
fiscal path. the US federal government's on an unsustainable
12:13
fiscal path. And that just means that the
12:15
debt is growing faster than the economy.
12:18
I have the sense this worries you very much over the long run.
12:21
Of course it does. You know, we're effectively,
12:24
we're borrowing from future generations.
12:26
It's time for us to get back to putting a priority on fiscal
12:30
sustainability. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary
12:33
Scott Besson just announced A radical plan.
12:36
Cut federal jobs, re privatize the economy and turbocharge
12:40
manufacturing. Something about re leveraging
12:43
the banking system. Translation.
12:45
We broke it. Now we're pretending that we can
12:47
fix it. We are under your direction.
12:50
We're re privatize the economy, we're bringing down government
12:53
spending, we're bringing down excess employment in the
12:56
government sector. On the other side, we're going
12:59
to re leverage the banking system.
13:01
We're going to have all the new manufacturing jobs.
13:03
So everyone is laid off the from the government will have an
13:07
opportunity to go into the private sector and that is going
13:10
to lead to disinflation. We're going to inflation is
13:14
under control, we're going to get the affordability crisis
13:17
fixed. So lower energy deregulation,
13:21
more private sector jobs that will naturally get interest
13:25
rates down. Interest rates down.
13:28
Mortgage rates are down almost every week since January 20th.
13:32
The energy costs are down about 15%.
13:35
Crude oil is down about 15%. And as we keep that going,
13:39
interest rates are going to keep declining.
13:42
It'll it'll be good for mortgages, it'll be good for
13:44
credit card debt, it'll be great for auto loans.
13:48
While the Fed fiddles, the geopolitical stage is Catching
13:51
Fire. Trump just met with GI historic
13:54
deals, lowered tariffs, fentanyl crackdown, rare earths, free
13:58
flow, Alaska oil buys. It's the art of the deal meets
14:03
Doctor Strangelove because on the same day, Russia tested its
14:07
Poseidon nuke torpedo and Trump ordered US nuclear testing for
14:12
the first time since 1992. Yeah, the Fiat world's cracking,
14:17
and now the nukes are back. The National Guards training
14:19
quick reaction forces for domestic unrest.
14:22
This is 4th turning chaos in real time.
14:25
And when the 4th turning strikes, it's time to secure
14:28
your generational wealth. And IF150K didn't give you an
14:32
Omega candle, Hells, a $10 million Michael Saylor happy
14:36
ending sound. We're about to bring it home.
14:38
First, look at our likes. 3/4. Times maybe?
14:41
I'll. Pump those numbers up.
14:42
Those are rookie. Numbers in this racket let's
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first loan. So what do you do when your
15:34
leaders are losing their minds and your money's losing its
15:38
value? You exit into Bitcoin.
15:41
Exactly, Eleanor. And honestly, we're also, you
15:43
know, we talk about this a lot, but we were filing, we filed for
15:46
Bitcoin index options to complement our NASDAQ 100
15:49
options program. We have an unbelievable NDX, we
15:54
call the NASDAQ 100 obviously, and we have option index options
15:57
on them where we've grown substantially in the last three
16:00
to four years. We're now averaging over 110,000
16:03
contracts a day, which two years ago was in the 40s.
16:05
So a lot of growth. And we expect that same thing to
16:07
happen with Bitcoin index options at NASDAQ.
16:10
NASDAQ says demand for Bitcoin is about to explode.
16:13
These are the same institutions that called it a joke 10 years
16:17
ago. And Michael Saylor said Bitcoin
16:19
will hit a humble 150K by the end of the year.
16:21
But that's that's just the pit stop on the way to Valhalla
16:25
because he also says. So we're winning.
16:30
But I guess the good news for everybody is we're going to keep
16:34
winning for the next 10 years. And there's forty quarters
16:37
during which Vanguard will first accidentally own my stock, then
16:43
they will grudgingly let you buy it, then they will allocate 1%
16:47
to it, and then they'll be like, wow, it's AI.
16:49
Guess it's a good idea. And when I say, and I've said
16:52
it, Scott, and you've heard, it's like by the time the
16:54
bankers tell you it's it's OK to buy it, it'll cost you
16:57
$1,000,000 a Bitcoin. And when they tell you what's a
17:00
good idea, it'll cost 10 million a Bitcoin.
17:02
So you're getting a 99% discount right now to do the work
17:06
yourself and show some courage and you get a 99, a 90%
17:11
discount. You know when they make it easy
17:13
for you, but you'll pay 10 times more.
17:16
And the math doesn't lie. the Fed ends, QT liquidity rises,
17:19
real yields fall. Bitcoin rips.
17:22
It's not faith, it's physics. Even the Strive CEO said it on
17:26
Bloomberg. Bitcoin is the only answer to
17:28
the debt crisis because when the debt's unpayable and the money's
17:32
unbacked, the only thing left is to opt out.
17:35
It actually was the reason I became a Bitcoiner in the 1st
17:37
place. I was managing a large portfolio
17:40
of U.S. Treasuries.
17:41
I was probably one of the largest buyers of U.S.
17:43
Treasuries in the United States and talking directly to the Fed,
17:46
to the treasury, it gave me conviction as a once Bitcoin
17:51
skeptic that Bitcoin was the only answer to the debt crisis
17:56
and the Fiat currency debasement.
17:57
And the Fiat currency debasement as an investment opportunity is
18:01
kind of becoming popular in Wall Street circles now.
18:04
But for Bitcoiners, this was a core part of the thesis and
18:08
obviously the other being true financial freedom in an opt out
18:11
from a system. But, but the debasement trade
18:14
bitcoins is the only answer. And I think that a lot of
18:17
bitcoiners, including myself and Strive have conviction that the
18:21
US government's never going to stop printing money.
18:23
The debt crisis is a bipartisan issue.
18:26
And you know, as an American, I'd love to see it be solved,
18:29
but I, I am not optimistic on it being solved.
18:32
And I think that only provides more and more tailwinds for
18:35
Bitcoin and people that invest in Bitcoin. 2025 is in 2008.
18:39
It's a 1929 with memes. We're watching the system
18:43
unravel in high definition, and just like every empire before
18:46
it, the collapses start in the balance sheet and then end in
18:49
the streets. They can print dollars, but they
18:52
can't print trust. And trust.
18:54
That's kind of like bitcoins monopoly at this point.
18:56
Pals still talking about soft landings.
18:59
Sorry brother, but the only thing landing soft is his job
19:03
next spring as the 4th turning flood rolls in.
19:06
The question is simple, do you cling to the wreckage or do you
19:09
build an ark? Because Bitcoin is the ark, it's
19:12
monetary. Noah's ship built one set at a
19:16
time. So here's the take away. the Fed
19:18
just confirmed what we already knew.
19:20
They can't save the dollar with without destroying it.
19:23
Sailors calling for 150K by years end.
19:25
But we all know that's just the warm up.
19:27
The next leg isn't about price, it's about exit velocity.
19:31
The banks, the governments, the empires, all of it runs on
19:34
borrowed time literally from our futures.
19:37
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Hey, hope you guys enjoyed this one.
20:06
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