Latest / Toadstool Sports / SUNDAY BEST BETS | NCAA Tournament Elite 8 & MLB & NHL & NBA | 3/29/26

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SUNDAY BEST BETS | NCAA Tournament Elite 8 & MLB & NHL & NBA | 3/29/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: even know what to tell you about that. I just
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two straight losses,
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: not a good day at all. Own four next have
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: not had a good season. Man with bookends the slump
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've reached a
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my Bruins hat man.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: arch hape? Is that what it is? I don't even
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: know it's it's March night, I think who even knows? Man,
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know what data is anymore. But I don't
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: even know what data is anymore. Man's back with you
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: after the worst day that I could possibly have, Back
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: with you as I always am until I die at
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday did not go
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: well for me. Own five the worst month that I've
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: ever had in my eighteen years doing this. I don't
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: know what to even tell you about this anymore. The
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: slump series, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody fucking
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: kill me, please. I don't even know what I should
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: do at this point other than potentially end it all.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: What's up, everybody? It sewed back with you with Toadstool
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: Sports for Sunday, March twenty ninth. Not a good day
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: on the show, I said, oh, yeah, that's right. I
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: was gonna finish the intro with these losses stay with me,
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: but they fester. Jerry, Yeah, we got the easy women
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: with the Chicago Cubs yesterday. No sweat on that one.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: Purdue was looking like they were going to be a winner,
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: as they had the seven point lead at halftime. The
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: game was kind of a slow pace as well, which
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: is what you want if you're on Purdue. It was
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: Arizona's largest halftime deficit of the season. And then what happens.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, we get like a twenty point swing, maybe
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: even worse than that in the second half. Like, the
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: only way you're gonna lose that cover at that point
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: is if something like that happens in the second half.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: Is the most massive disaster that you've ever seen. That
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: is exactly what happened. And of course Arizona went to
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: the free throw line way more than Purdue did, which
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: was pretty much the tail of the game. There. I'm
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: fucking pissed. I still think Purdue was the right side
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: in that game based on all the handicapping. There is
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: also an angle. I guess it's an angle, not a trend.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: In angle is they think a trend has to do
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: with a specific team or guy. There's an angle that
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: works in the Sweet sixteen, and I believe also the
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: Elite eight round where if a team has won six
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: plus games in a row so finishing the regular season
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: hot continued that momentum through the tournament so far, and
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: they're an underdog in this round. They cover like sixty
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: five percent of the time or something like that. So
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: that angle has been working. It was. It applied to
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: Saint John's the other day as well, although it applied
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: to I think Arkansas as well against Arizona. So yeah,
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: what that angle just doesn't work against Arizona. Our Arkansas
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: was just it was a horrible matchup, you know, which
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: I did not think was the case of Purdue whatever.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna keep talking about it. I don't like
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: the board today at all. We're gonna get into it.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: We're gonna have one baseball play one let me zoom
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: in here. We're gonna have one hockey play as well.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: And that's what I got today. I don't like what
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: I'm seeing here. Baseball starts in the afternoon. Of course
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: it's Sunday, so it's mostly afternoon baseball. MLB Network has
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: Kansas City in Atlanta, Kansas City trying to avoid getting
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: swept here. Now, a lot of times I'll look and
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: see what the team that's going for the sweep, who
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: do they play next? Because a lot of times when
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: a team has already won every game, the syeeraries they'll
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: overlook that team in the last game and be looking ahead.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: But Atlanta's only looking ahead to I mean, I don't
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: think they're gonna be looking ahead because they play the
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: A's next, which is not a big deal. And this
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: applies to like four or five teams today. I looked,
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: and I'm like, it's not a look ahead for any
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: of these teams. Really, none of them are playing good
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: teams in the next game. Now we gotta look at
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: the bullpen usage as we usually do. This is gonna
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: take for fucking ever to go through all these games here.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: Kansas City has the better bullpen. They're fairly well rested. Really,
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: the only is three guys yesterday Atlanta used four. Now.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: Atlanta is also coming off a dramatic win where I
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: think they scored six runs in the ninth inning and
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: one on a walk off grand slam. So sometimes when
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: that happens, the team will be in a little bit
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: of a letdown spot. So those are all things kind
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: of indicating that maybe you want to look towards the
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: Royals in this game. I look at the starting pitching matchup, though,
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: and I'm like, I don't know about that. Seth Lugo
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: is pitching for the Royals. I can tell you that
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: a lot of professional handicappers do not like this guy.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: They don't like his underlying metrics. I've been watching it,
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: and I like, I think that he's not as bad
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: as that, Like, I don't know, consistently has decent strike
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: out walk numbers, whatever. His numbers are not great against Atlanta.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: Ninety eight at bats or twenty two to thirteen strike
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio is pretty bad. He's a lot of
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: two seventy six average to them eight O nine ops.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: That's not good at all. So I wouldn't really trust
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: Lugo in this game. So that kind of eliminates any
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: thought of, yeah, like I want to play Kansas City here,
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: I do not. Grant Holmes is pitching for the Braves.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: He's probably not as good as he. I mean, he
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: looks really good with this ridiculous uh mullet or whatever
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: that he has going on in the fu manchuw. His
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: era was pretty good last year, his whip not so much.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: He puts too many guys on base. Kansas City has
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: not seen much of them though. They're actually zero for
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: nine off in lifetime with two strikeouts in a walk.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: So he probably does have the upper hand in the
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: starting pitching matchup because these pitchers that are unfamiliar to
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: the opposing hitters tend to have a little bit of
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: an edge that way. Braves sixty nine percent of tickets,
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: ninety four percent of the cash on them, They're up
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: to minus one fifty one on the money line. I
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: can't really disagree with it, really, I think you got
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: an edge starting pitching matchup wise, offensively, and then the
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: only edge of Kansas City really has is in the bullpens,
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: and that didn't work out last night either. I think
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: I would slightly lean towards the Braves in that game,
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: but I don't really have that strong of an opinion
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: on it, all right, mister Penze Michigan, Yeah, I'm gonna
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: talk about that game. I leaned towards Michigan covering in
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: that game. Minnesota at Baltimore. These teams I think have
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: split the first couple of games in this series here.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: Bullpen wise, not good bullpens at least. We're basing this
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: off of what we saw last year though for now,
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: until like we need like a few weeks where of
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: the data really to really see who these bullpens really are.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: But since the personnel was similar to last year, I'm
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: going with last year for now. Both bullpens are bad.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: A lot of bullpen usage yesterday kind of for both
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: teams as well, so I would be looking to avoid
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: the bullpens and whatever handicap I'm doing here in this game.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: A lot of games went to extra innings yesterday too,
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: by the way, so there was a decent amount of
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: bullpen usage in a lot of these games yesterday. Started pitching.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: I don't know if these are trustworthy starters here either.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: Bailey Ober is pitching for the Twins. I mean he
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: shows glimpses of being pretty good. He's a dominant mound
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: presence at presence at six sixty nine, but he was
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: not pitching very well last year. He gets knocked around
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: in a lot of starts. He had a pretty bad
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: whip last year. I'm not sold on Ober, even though
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: I've seen good stuff from him at some points. His
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: numbers against the Orioles are actually good though, in fifty
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: three at bats thirteen to four strikeout walk ratio one
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: seventy average allowed is quite low five sixty two ops.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: So the Orioles are one team that actually does not
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: really hit for power against him. So maybe he does
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: have a decent matchup to work with here, although I
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: would say the Orioles are definitely the better offense out
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: of these two teams, probably the slightly better bullpen similar
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: bullpen usage yesterday, and I think the Orioles do have
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: the better starter here with Shane Boz. His whip wasn't
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: very good last year either. I think he does have
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: some decent stuff, but also remember with Boz last year
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: he was pitching in Tampa Bay. They were playing in
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: a Triple A stadium last year. He was on Tampa
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: Bay last year, so that affected his numbers because that
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: was a very hitter friendly ballpark. So maybe you have
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: to give him a little bit of a break for
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: what his numbers looked like last year. Against Minnesota, they
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: have not really seen him much at all. They're zero
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: for ten, often with four strikeouts and two walks, so
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: very limited sample size. They're not familiar with him. He's
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: done pretty well against them generally, so I think you
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: have to you have to tip the scales towards Baltimore here.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: Then the question becomes price. They're minus one fifty two
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: on the money line, seventy five percent of the tickets,
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: ninety nine percent of the cash on them. I don't
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: want to touch the game, man, I really don't. The
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: total is pretty high at nine, So even though it
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: looks like money is actually coming in on the under,
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: odds makers kind of telling you that they're not really
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: trusting these pitching staffs in general. Here. I would lean,
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: I guess towards Baltimore in this one if I was
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: going to do anything with it. But I don't really
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: want to touch that game either. I don't want to
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: touch most of these games. I ale, what's up? Thanks
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: for hanging out? All right? We have Texas and Philadelphia.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia I believe is on the verge of potentially sweep.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: Oh no, wait, they're not. They lost yesterday. My mistake.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: I thought Philly won yesterday. They didn't. They lost in
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: a close game. Texas does have the better bullpen out
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: of the two teams here. Looking at the usage, though,
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: Texas used a lot of relief pitchers yesterday. Man, they
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: used what is a seven relief pitchers yesterday? They use
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: almost their entire bullpen yesterday, So that's not good. That
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: kind of takes away the advantage they might have. Philadelphia
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: use four. This must have been an extra inning game.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: I assume, uh, yes it was. It was only ten innings,
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: zoughe But that's a lot of bullpen usage. Texas normally
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: I would say they have the better bullpen, but with
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: that usage, that yeah, not so much. Maybe Philadelphia does
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: have the better offense here. Starting pitching wise, I don't
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: like either of these starters really. Mackenzie Gore will be
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: making his debut for the Rangers, and something I should
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: have mentioned with Boz. I guess is that when a
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: pitcher is making his debut for a new team that
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: you know, signed him to a big contract or whatever
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: over the offseason, that pitcher does have kind of an
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: incentive to pitch really well in that first game. So
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: a lot of times you will see them pitch well
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: in the first game. But I don't know. Man Gore
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: did not have a good season last year, even though
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: he does actually have good stuff. But one point three
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: to five whip last year pretty bad up against the Phillies.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: He was in their divisions, so they're pretty familiar with
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: him because he was on Washington. But he actually does
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: have pretty good numbers against him in a big sample
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: size one hundred and sixty five at bats, fifty six
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: to fifteen, strike a walk ratio two forty two average allowed,
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: six eighty one OPS allowed. And I should clarify like
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: when I'm saying, like, you know, like what is the
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: threshold that I consider like good, right, Like, I think
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: the ops is what matters the most, And I would
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: say seven point fifty is probably where I would say.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: If it's lower than that, it's not that bad. If
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: it's lower than seven hundred. I would say it's good
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: for that picture, and if it's over seven fifty, then
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: I would say it's bad. That's kind of how I
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: look at it. So yeah, I would say Gore actually
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: does do pretty well against Philadelphia. Jesus Lozardo pitching for
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: the Phillies. He had an okay season last year, but
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: it was really all over the place, like he's very inconsistent,
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: Like he has streaks where he does really well, and
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: then he has certain starts where he gets absolutely lit up.
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: He has fifty eight career at bats against the Rangers.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: Nimo is very familiar with him because he was on
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: the Mats, So Nimo actually has good numbers against him too,
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: overall fifteen to six strike out walk ratio for the
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: entirety of Texas's lineup against him, which is not great
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: for Luzardo two fifty nine average allowed, seven to twenty
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: five ops. Mediocre numbers there. So this is a game
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: where it looks like a lot of mediocrity. Eighty nine
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: percent tickets, ninety nine percent of the cash on the Phillies.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: That it might as I went fifty six, I don't
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: think i'd be looking towards the Phillies here. To be honest, man,
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: I think I might lean slightly towards Texas, but I
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: would have to limit it to like the first five
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: innings if I wanted to do anything like that, because
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: I don't want to touch texas As bullpen with that
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: much usage, even though generally I would leave their bullpen
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: in because I think they are the better bullpen, but
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: probably not in this case. Money's sort of coming in
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: towards an over sitting in no man's land at eight.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't really disagree with an over in this game either,
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: you know, I just I don't know's It's a very
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: hard game to handicap for me A's and Toronto. Toronto
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: is on the vergie of a sweet pair after they
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: won yesterday eight to seven. That was another one of
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: those extra inning games, so I think we had a
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: lot of bullpen usage yesterday in that game. Toronto only
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: has Colorado next, so we're not in danger of like
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: a look ahead spot for Toronto here. Toronto us a
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: lot of their relief pitchers yesterday. Man, the use seven
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: relief so used everybody but Hoffman pretty much, so that's
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: not great for the The A's have the worst of
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: the two bullpens. They used six relief pitchers as well.
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: It looks like yesterday, so a lot of bullpen usage.
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: I'd be looking to not want to take either bullpen
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: today and whatever I deal with this. The starting pitching
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: matchup is actually interesting. Luis Morales was pitching for the A's.
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: He actually had a pretty good season last year. He's
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: still a young guy. He looks like he's actually a
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: pretty decent pitcher and Toronto's never faced him before, so
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: that should be an edge to Morales because he's never
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: been seen before. He's going up against Eric Lauer, who
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: we know he had a good season last year for Toronto.
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: The A's basically haven't seen him before either. They're only
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: one for four, often with a strikeout and no extra
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: base hits, no walks, so we have two decent pitchers
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: that are unfamiliar to the opposing hitters. Yere As far
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: as the side is concerned, sixty eight send tickets eighty
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Toronto, they're down to minus
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: one forty nine on the money line. I would say
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: I don't really want to do anything with the side here, man,
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: but I would say that I think under in the
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: first five innings is the way that I would play
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: this game. I don't want to do anything with the
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: bullpens here, but I actually like the starting pitching here.
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: I think, you know, again, we have two young pitchers
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: that look at or well, one young pitcher, one thirty
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: year old pitcher, guys that looked good last year. They
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: have pretty good numbers, and their numbers against the opposing
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: lineups are actually good ish and and or they just
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: haven't been seen by those opposing lineups before. So I
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: like that. Actually, I think both starting pitchers do have
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: a little bit of an edge here, even though these
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: are both powerful offenses though, so that is something to
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: keep in mind. But under first five innings, I think
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: is the way I would look at that game, and
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: you could probably get a decent number because the totals
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: like eight and a half or nine in the full game,
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: you could probably get under like four or maybe even
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: four and a half in the first five. That's what
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: I would do in that game. Red Sox at the Reds.
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: These teams are split. The umpiring was horrible yesterday. Cbe
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: Buckner homeplate umpire. I made a joke about it on Twitter,
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: like anybody who's named Buckner should just stay the fuck
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: away because you know it's not gonna go well for
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox. Bill Buckner, by the way, Rip did
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: have a sense of humor about that. Appeared on Curby
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: Your Enthusiasm, by the way, in one of the later
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: seasons of that show. But whatever, it was horrible homeplate umpiring.
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: The Red Sox came back and tied the game, only
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: to fall short again yesterday anyway, lose an extra innings.
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: Both bullpens saw some usage here. Yesterday Cincinnati used most
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: of their bullpen. They used like six relief pitchers. Yesterday
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox pretty much also did, so these bullpens
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: are kind of wiped out right now. So I wouldn't
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: want to deal with the bullpens in this game either.
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: Now that might wind up being worse for Cincinnati. If
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: we look at the starting pitching matchup here, I would say,
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: as I've been saying throughout this year is I think
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox probably have the slightly better offense here,
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: the slightly better bullpen. But both bullpens used up here,
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: I would probably have to give the Red Sox to
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: starting pitching edge. With Connolly early making the start here,
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: I was expecting it to be Suarez, but I don't
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: know what the Red Sox are doing with their rotation,
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: but they're going with early young guy. We still don't
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: know what we're gonna get out of him, really, but
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: he did look good in his few appearances they made
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: last year. Red Sox may have something with this guy.
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: He doesn't throw like crazy hard or anything like that,
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: but he has a good pitch mix. His moving stuff
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: can fool guys. He is pretty good on The Reds
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: have never seen him before, so that should be an
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: extra edge for him facing a lineup that's never faced
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: him before. Because again, especially when you have these talented
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: young pitchers never been seen before by the opposing hitters,
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: that is an advantage to them. Usually Rhett Louder's pitching
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: for Cincinnati, another mulleted gentleman here with a mustache. He
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: had decent numbers last year, though was his era looked
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: really good, but his whip was somewhat high. I think
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: he was mostly making short appearances, so I don't know
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: that we're gonna get a full start out of him here,
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: which is kind of a concern when you have so
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: much bullpen usage, like I think Connolly early will make
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: like a full start here today. But Louder I don't know,
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: because if you look at his usage, he actually didn't
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: even pitch last year, that was two years ago. Well
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: I guess, yeah, I guess I'm wrong. I guess he
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: was going like five innings per start for the most
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: part in his only major league outings two years ago.
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: So maybe I'm wrong about that. Maybe they will use
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: Louder for at least five innings in this game. The
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: Red Sox probably have never seen him before as well.
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: Actually a couple of guys did face him a couple
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: of years ago. Kind of filet fun monasterio or combined
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: two for four, often with a strikeout, no exture base hits,
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: no walks. Not a ton to see there. I mean,
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: he's unfamiliar to the Red Sox as well. If you
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: wanted to go under first five innings in this game too,
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: that might be my preferred approach in this one. The
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: total has dropped a little bit. Already looks like public
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: over here, but you know it is. We do have
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: two decent offenses here. It's a decent hitting park. But
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: of course, full game over is a completely different story
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: because you're fading these like wiped out bullpens here, whereas
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: I think the starting pitching actually might have a little
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: bit of an advantage, So I think first five innings
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: undermixed sense in this game too. Eighty one percent of
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: tickets ninety nine percent of the cash on the Red Sox.
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: That number is not accurate, of course, but Red Sox
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: are a small favorite again on the road here. They
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: better not lose this series. Man being a favorite on
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: the road in every single game, that would be a
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: bad start to the season. Although the Reds are not
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: a terrible team. Red Sox are at minus one thirty
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: two there on the money line. But yeah, I don't
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: like the game. Really. It's on MLB Unlimited, inn ESPN.
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: It looks like they're or whatever the hell that is.
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: Maybe it's MLBtv and ESPN Unlimited. I don't know. They
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: don't separate these logos well enough. Colorado and Miami. Miami,
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: I believe is on the verge of a sweep here,
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: so maybe they won't take Colorado as seriously. They only
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: have the White Sox next though, so a pretty good
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: start for Miami. Easy schedule to start the season for Miami.
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: Both bullpens I don't think of that good. Colorado's is
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: pretty awful. Not a lot of usage though yesterday for
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: the bullpens. Pretty light usage for both bullpens yesterday, so
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: you know, the bullpens are intact. They're just not really
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: that good. Quintana is pitching for the Rockies. The Rockies
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: picked him up, I believe over the offseason. I'm sure
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: he's not happy about that because he goes from the Brewers,
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: a playoff team, to a team that's a dumpster fire
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: in the Rockies, and he has to pitch a corps field.
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: None of that is good. But at least in this game,
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: like I said with lorenz In yesterday, at least he
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: gets to pitch in Miami for this one. Kitana actually
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: had an interesting year last year. He actually pitched better
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: than anybody would expect last year. I mean, he's one
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: of these older pitchers, but he's not a guy that
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: ever really relied on velocity. So a lot of times
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: these guys age better because they just focus on their
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: command and their command stays there, you know what I mean.
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: Against Miami. His numbers are not great, but it's only
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: a twenty one at bats sample size. It's not a
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: huge sample size, believe it or not, three to two
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: strike up walk ratio three thirty three average, one thousand
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: and two one ops. None of that is good. Three
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: of their hitters have home runs off of him. It's
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: you would expect a guy who's been around for forever
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: that he would have way more at bats in his
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: career against the opposing lineup. That's weird that that's not
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: the case. But I don't know if a really trust
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: him in this game. Max Meyer is pitching for Miami.
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: He's still a pretty young dude. He did not have
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: a great season last year. I think it was a
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: shortened season, but he does have talent. Like I actually
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: like Meyer. I actually think he's not that bad of
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: a pitcher. Against the Rockies, though it's been rocky fourteen
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: at bats, they have a four to twenty nine average
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: off him. Goodman is three for three with two of
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: them runs off him. So he's gonna have to pitch
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: around that guy. They have a oneenty three twenty four
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: ohps against him, but only three of their hitters have
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: ever faced it before. So how do you gauge this right? Like,
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: do we actually say, well, Colorado wrecks him? Because these
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: three guys have hit him fairly well, specifically, really one guy,
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: or are we gonna say now, Meyer's actually a pretty
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: good pitcher. He's got good stuff, and most of the
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: Colorado lineup has never even seen him before. I tend
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: to lean towards the ladder in this case. I think
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: Meyer has the upper hand over Kintana here. Miami is
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: just the better team as well, probably the better offense
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: and the better bullpen as well. They're at minus one
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: eighty one, seventy eight percent of tickets ninety eight percent
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Miami here. I don't want to
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: touch the game at all, but you know, I guess
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: I probably would slightly lean towards Miami in that one.
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh at the Mets. The Mets are on the verge
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: of potentially sweeping Pittsburgh here. Pittsburgh, you know, everybody hyped
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: them up this year because they got some they you know,
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: kind of they picked up some guys over the offseason
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: to try to help their lineup and plus say Paul
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: Skeens of course, still but hasn't been a good start
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: for them. Man, I don't know that the Mets are
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: gonna be looking ahead to the Cardinals. So the Cardinals
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: are bad, so, you know, not really much as far
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: as a look ahead there, there probably isn't any for
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh though, they are gonna go with Carmen Molodzinsky. He's
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: pretty much an opener for them. Like he's probably gonna
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: come in and only go two three innings maybe in
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: this game, depending on like how well he's doing and
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: what the matchups are. So the Pirates are looking like
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: they're sort of going with a bullpen game here. This
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: is twenty twenty six. Man, this is the new baseball.
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: Blame Joe madd And for this. His numbers against the
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: Mets are pretty good for what it's worth. In sixteen
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: at bats one to eighty eight at average allowed six
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: sixty two ops is a little bit high. He has
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: walked four of them and only struck out three. You know,
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: I'm not totally sold on him, but also I don't
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: think he's gonna be in the game that long. The
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: Mets have Nolan McClain pitching, and he was one of
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: their young call ups last year. He had he was
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: good for them last year. Man, he's there like probably
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: their next thing. Like, I actually think he's a good
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: pitcher Pittsburgh. Only Ozuna has ever seen him before, and
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: he's zero for three with a strikeout. So again you
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: have this young pitcher who's actually a talented pitcher, never
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: been seen before by the opposing bats. The opposing bats
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: are not particularly good either Ozuna or one of those
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: guys that Pittsburgh picked up, and he is familiar with
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: mclan but he hasn't hit him well. So I think
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: McClain does have the edge here. Mets minus one seventy
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: four on the money line, eighty eight percent of tickets,
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: ninety four percent of the cash on them. They're a
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: very public side, which does warn me a little bit
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: because I really think the Mets are the right side here. Man.
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: You have like a young, talented, unknown starter going up
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: against basically a bullpen came from the lesser team. Yeah,
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: I'd be leaning towards the Mets here, man, I don't
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: know what else to say about it. And again, when
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: you have these big prices here, I tend to look
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: for a split bet where you put some of it
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: on the money line and some of it on the
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: run line to get the price down. Or you can
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: go to a lot of the different sports books have
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: a minus one run line available, and that could get
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: your price down as well. As far as the bullpen usage,
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh used a lot of it yesterday they used well
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: four relief pitchers, but over the last few days have
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: used a lot of their bullpender. They use a lot
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: of it on Thursday and didn't play on Friday. I think, so,
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: you know, that'll cut down on the usage a little bit.
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: It's not as bad as this all this orange makes
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: it look, really but I think the Mets have the
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: better bullpend. The Mets did use a lot of it yesterday,
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: though the Mets us like six relief pitchers yesterday, so
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: that's not exactly great either. But I think if you go,
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: you know, I would still lead towards Mets full game
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: here because both bullpends are thinking kind of a similar
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: position there. Next up is gonna be the best bet.
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: We're gonna go with an unknown here. But sometimes I
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: like doing this, man. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: We're gonna go with the Astros here and I know
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: they let me down the other day. We're gonna do
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: a split bet here, partially on the run line at
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: plus one twenty five, partially on the money line, it
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: might as one seventy eight, and I'm basically I'm just
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: saying split the bet up so that the amount of
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: the bet. Basically, you want to make it so that
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: if the if they win by one, your bet essentially
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: pushes you know what I mean, Like you want to
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: have your part of the bet that's on the money
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: line be to win the amount that you're putting on
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: the run line, if that makes sense. So you know,
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: I use this run line calculator here. These are not
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: the numbers for me here because I have a hockey
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: play too where I'm doing the same thing. So that's
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: what that those numbers are. But if you know what
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: I'm talking about, you know what I'm talking about. You know,
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: I looked at like d K also as like a
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: minus one run line if you want to go that way,
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: But it was like minus one thirty one or something
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: like that to do that. And for what I did here,
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: I got the price down to like minus one twenty
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: something to do this. So I think that's a bit
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: better obviously, So that's what I'm doing. Yeah, So if
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: you want to go minus one run line, I think
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: that's fine as well. We're going with a big favorite here,
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: but you know, Houston their favorite. This big for a reason.
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: Houston's gonna try to even up the series here. Man.
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: They won yesterday eleven to nine. It was again where
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: you know, the bullpens were in use yesterday, so Houston
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: only used three relief pitchers yesterday, so I'm not too
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: worried about that. And Anaheim's bullpen is just absolutely atrocious,
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: so I don't see that really changing this year. And
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: they also used three relief pitchers, so Houston still has
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: the bullpen edge here. I think Houston has the offensive
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: edge here, and I think the starting pitching edge is
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: actually really big in favor of Houston here. In my opinion,
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: Houston dropped him minus one sixty nine here. Though eighty
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: five percent of tickets ninety nine percent of the cash
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: on them, it looks like those numbers might be a
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: little bit off. I would say, you know, you might
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: be able to get a better money line on this
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: than I found. But I think it makes sense to
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: do this. I mean, we're fading Jack Kohanowitz for one thing.
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: I don't know why the Angels continue to put this
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: guy out there like he's been an absolute disaster. He's tall,
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: but he doesn't throw that hard. He throws junk and
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: he's just never been good. Hiss. The ra last year
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: was almost seven, dude, and his whip was like getting
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: close to two. Like, how could you leave this guy
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: in your starting rotation? It's absolutely insane and Anaheim seems
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: to have bad pitching coaching. It seems like there were
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: pitchers go to die. And his numbers against the Astros
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: are pretty bad in twenty two at bats. I know
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: it's not a big sample size, but pretty much all
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: their heroes have faced him at least once before one strikeout,
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: three walks, three sixty four average allowed, eight forty nine ops.
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: So yeah, we're gonna fade Kohanowitz here. I think his
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: numbers just are they're bad, dude. What else can I say?
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: He's not a good pitcher at all. I think he's
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: one of the worst pitchers in any starting rotation in baseball.
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: And we're gonna go with the unknown quantity here with
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: Tatsuya y Mai making his major league debut, So yes,
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: we have to worry that he might be nervous. I
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: get it, like sometimes he's Japanese pitchers that come over
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: from the Japanese leagues because that's where he was. He
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: was pitching in the Japanese leagues, and sometimes they don't
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: adapt right away to Major League Baseball. But I'm I'd
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: be more concerned if he was younger, you know what
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: I mean, like Sasaki, Like a guy who's like twenty one,
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: twenty two. This guy's twenty seven. He's pitched in the
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: Japanese leagues for like five six years, so I'm not
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: as worried about that. But yes, they have to adapt
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: to the culture and whatever. But I think the positives
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: outweigh the negatives here because the positives are that none
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: of these hitters have ever faced him before, so they
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: have no idea what they're gonna be facing. And a
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: lot of times it's a big advantage to some of
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: these guys. Em I you know, like these guys are
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: gonna have to get used to facing him. Uh So
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: I like that he's facing a lineup it's not that good.
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: And if you look at his like scouting reports, he
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: has good stuff, dude, Like there's a reason why the
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: Astros went out and got this guy. He's a small guy,
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: but he throws like in the upper nineties. Although you know,
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: eventually maybe that's gonna maybe eventually, maybe that's gonna, you know,
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: cause injuries for him. I don't know. But he throws
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: in the upper nineties with his fastball. He's got a
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: mix of six different pitches. Really, he throws like four
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: the majority of the time, but he mixes in a
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: couple extra pitches as well. He has like a really
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: really nasty slider with a lot of movement on it
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: the fools everyone. And he's got like a really weird
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: split finger fastball as well, mixes in like a change
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: up and like I think another fastball or something. He
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: might have two different change ups. I don't know. He
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: has a mix of pitches, but primarily it's the fastball, slider, splitter,
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: and then I think another maybe either the change or
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: another fastball. I forget, but whatever, I like it. Man.
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: I think we have a big edge here with Houston
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: in this one. So that's what we're going with. That's
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: my only baseball play today, Houston Astros split bet money
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: line run line is my recommendation there. Or you know,
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: if the price goes down a little bit, if you
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: if you just want to go minus one run line,
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: you could do that as well. I just think that
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: at the prices that I found, making your own run
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: line was a little bit cheaper for me. All Right,
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: we have White Sox at Milwaukee. Milwaukee should be a
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: huge favorite here. Milwaukee is of course on the verge
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: of an easy sweep of the White Sox here. They've
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: outscored them twenty to three in the first two games,
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: which is ridiculous. So they might take Chicago for granted here,
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: but they only face Tampa Bay next, which is still
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: not really that big of a deal. Milwaukee's clearly the
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: better team here, though they're the better offense. They probably
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: do have the better bullpen these four relief pitchers. Yesterday
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: the White Sox, let me see, White Sox used the
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: four as well, So yeah, you gotta give the bullpen
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: edge to Milwaukee here, and starting pitching Milwaukee also as
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: the advantage here in my opinion, Chicago is going with
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: Anthony Kay as the listed starter. Yeah, I mean, it
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: doesn't look good for the White Sox, dude, because this
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: guy's he's only gonna come out there and be like
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: an opener pretty much. So the White Sox bet they're
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: going with a bullpen game of some in some way
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: here that's not good that is, you know, I don't, dude,
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: I just don't like these bullpen games, especially when your
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: bullpen isn't good. So good luck to the White Sox
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: in this game. Kay himself also had really bad numbers
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: the last time he pitched, which, by the way, he
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: hasn't pitched in the majors for two years, three years.
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: He hasn't pitched his twenty twenty three in the majors
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: and he had a six ERA that season. So what
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: are we doing here, man, I don't know what we're doing.
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: The guys in his thirties, I don't get it. I
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: don't understand it. The Brewers actually are one for four
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: off in lifetime. Sanchez has a home run off him,
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: won one strike, a walk ratio whatever. So the Brewers
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: have a couple of guys that did face him back then.
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: Brandon Sprote is pitching from a walking They picked him
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: up from the Mets. I believe. I believe that was
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: a trade they made. He was a young pitcher that
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: the Mets brought up last year, and he pitched Okay.
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: His era didn't look that good, but his whip was
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: not horrible. He's actually a decent pitcher and the White Sox.
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: Hayes has seen him before, and he has won for two,
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: often with a couple of RBIs, no strikeouts, no walks.
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: But essentially, I think you could say that Sprote is
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: totally unfamiliar with the White Sox, and I think he
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: does have a big edge here against whatever the hell
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: the White Sox are doing with this bullpend game. So
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee I believe is the right side here. Man. They're
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: actually not that expensive in minus one sixty five. But dude,
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: these favorites that seem like obvious favorites, they're all like
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: public sides. And that's what worries me about looking at
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: these games, because I'm like, this team clearly should win
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: this game, you know what I mean. But then it's like, well,
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: is the price too much? Sometimes that's hard to gauge
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: in baseball, you know. I would lean to the matt
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: Excuse I would lean to the Brewers in this game.
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: Excuse me, Like, I just I don't see the game
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: any other way. I think the Brewers have too much
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: of an edge here. I would go split beat run line,
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: money line that when it's not on my car, though,
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay and Saint Louis, I don't know what's going
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: on with this game either. These teams went into extra
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: innings yesterday. Saint Louis used more of their bullpen. I
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: think yesterday they used four relief pitchers. What did Tampa
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: used three? But Tampa looks like they're going with a
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: bullpend game here because Steven Motts is the listed starter here.
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: He was on the Cardinals last year until the Red
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: Sox got him in a trade which wound up being
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: totally useless. Motts was good out of the bullpend last
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: year for the most part. But what are we doing here? Man?
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: He's on Tampa Bay now they're using him as an
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: opener here. Of course, we know Tampa. They're kind of
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: the pioneers of the bullpend game, so they kind of
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: know how to do it because it's been their thing
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: more than most other teams. It's really been them, and
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: like the Detroit Tigers have started doing it recent years.
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: But still, I don't know about this a bullpen game.
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis doesn't look good for them either. Man. They
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: got Dustin May pitching. Good luck to them with that
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: because since his Tommy John surgery or whatever, he's been atrocious.
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: He was bad for the Dodgers, he was bad for
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox. He can't stick with a team. Tampa
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: Bay is only oh for too often though two strikeouts.
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: Fortes is their only hitter has ever faced it before.
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: But still, I don't trust May at all. I don't
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: trust whatever the hell Tampa is doing with this bullpend
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: game here. Uh, the money is coming in on Tampa
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: for what that's worth up to minus one fourteen sixty
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: eight percent of tickets eighty three percent of the cash
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: on them. Tampa is the better team. I will tell
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: you that Tampa does, I believe, have the better offense
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: and the better bulpend, but their bullpend is gonna be
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: pitching the whole game here. As far as Saint Louis,
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: I don't trust May. You know, I would lean to
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: an over in this game if I was gonna do
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: anything with it. Although the money looks like it's indicating
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: on the under fifty three percent of tickets on the
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: over eighty three percent of the cash on the under,
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: I would lean over, though, you know, I just I
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: don't see. I don't see this being advantage for either
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: team with what they're doing with this pitching. But again,
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: because Tampa Bay does actually do the bullpen things. Sometimes
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: they might be able to work it so that Saint
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: Louis's hitters are just off balance all games. So maybe
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: they do have a little bit of an edge that way.
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: So I wouldn't really disagree with the Tampa Bay side,
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: but I would probably prefer over in that one Washington
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: at the Cubs. The Cubs got the win after getting
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: blown out in the first game. They had an easy
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: blawut win, one of the wins, the only win I
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: gave it on the show yesterday, So we did get
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: the win yesterday with that one. Washington, their bullpen is
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: pretty bad. They used three relief pitchers yesterday. Whatever. Cubs
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: also used three light bullpen usage for the Cubs over
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: the last couple of days. Cubs have the bullpen edge here.
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: Cubs have a better offense, Cubs have a better starter.
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: That's why they're favored extremely heavily here. But the Cubs
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: have the advantage everywhere in this game. Jake Irvin is
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: pitching for Washington. Not a fan of him. You know,
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: he showed some glimpses of being all right, but I
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: don't think yeah, I just don't think so against the Cubs.
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: His numbers are bad, and sixty nine at bats really bad.
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: Thirteen to ten strike out walk race here, two ninety
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: average allowed nine to sixteen OPS. None of that is
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: good at all. And he's going up against who I
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: think is the best starter of the Cubs have, and
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: he's making the He's pitching into their third game for
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: some reason, show to Ima Naga is pitching for the Cubs.
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: He had a sub one whip last year. This guy
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: is good man, He's legit, He's you know, he's acclimated
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: himself to the majors at this point. His numbers against
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: Washington are not great though, in thirty one at bats
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: seven one strike out walk racios is solid, but two
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: ninety batting average allowed seven hundred ops. Warriors to me
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: a little bit here, but still I think he's clearly
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: got the upper hand here. The only way that I
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: could see playing this game really is either Cubs on
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: the run line, or if you worry a little bit
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: about Emanaga, you know those matchup numbers there or whatever,
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: you could go Cubs over their team total in this one.
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: I would not really disagree with that, even though I
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: know they scored ten runs yesterday, so it almost looks
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: too easy. But against Washington, a bad starter or a
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: bad bullpen, you know, the Cubs should put up runs
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: in this one. So and the total is high. And
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: remember I talked about this last year a lot with
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: Wrigley Field. When you see a high total like that,
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: that means the wind is probably blowing out because the
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: Wrigley Field, the Lake Effect wind is huge. So depending
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: on the direction that the wind is blowing, you'll see
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: the total move by like two runs. In Wrigley Field,
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: it's insane. So I think this means the wind is
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: blowing out. So you're gonna see some runs in this game.
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: So Cubs over their team total. Maybe that's even actually
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: the preferable way to play that game. And then we
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: have a night game on Peacock. The only night game
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: is Cleveland and Seattle. These two teams have played three
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: games already. Cleveland won last night. Cleveland won two of
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: the first three games, so we'll see. Maybe Seattle's gonna
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: be motivated to even this up. Yesterday it went into
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: extra innings. Cleveland used six relief pitchers, Seattle only used five.
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: They only used Spire for three pitches, and he didn't
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: pitch on Friday, so he's probably available again. So I
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: think Seattle does have a little bit of a bullpen
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: advantage in this one. Both bullpens are actually fairly good,
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: but the way this sets up, I think Seattle does
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: have that edge there. The hitting Seattle has the better
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: offense here. Starting pitching on the surface, I would I
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: would give the edge to Cleveland, but the matchup numbers
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: don't quite bear that out. Uh. Slay Chacone is pitching
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: for Cleveland. I do think he's pretty good. His whip
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: was below one point two last year, which is pretty good.
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: He came back I think late in the season last year,
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: so his era wasn't that good, but he's better than
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: that era would suggested in my opinion. But his numbers
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: against Seattle are not great. Although it's only in fourteen
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: at bats, three strike, it's one walk, Donovan has a
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: home run off him. He's allowed a two eighty six
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: average and nine oh five ops. But it is a
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: small sample size, so like half of Seattle's lineup has
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: actually never faced him before, so I think I would
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: not read into these stats too much here. I would
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: still probably say Chaconi is good. Like you know, I
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: think he should do okay here. Emerson Hancock, I think
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: is a much bigger question mark for Seattle. His numbers
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: just aren't as good like throughout his career. He's still
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: pretty young. I don't really trust him though, but he
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: does have good numbers against Cleveland twenty five career at
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: bats five to one, strike out walk ratio, no extra
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: base hits allowed, one sixty average, three fifty two ops.
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: You know, Mariners are pretty public here. They're only at
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: minus one thirty seven eighty six percent of tickets ninety
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: nine percent of the cash whenever I see ninety nine,
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: there's no way that's accurate. But looks like Seattle is
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: going to be a public side, which I know that
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: worries me about Houston a little bit. But you know,
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: I might slightly leaning towards Cleveland in the first five
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: I don't think I would want to go full game
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: because they think Seattle does have a little bit of
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: a bullpen edge here. I would also probably lean towards
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: an under in this game in the first five innings
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: because I don't want to deal with those used up bullpens.
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: First five inning under I could see happening because Hancock
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: does have good numbers against what is a week Cleveland offense,
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: and I think Chacone could actually pitch okay there, So
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: but you're teetering on the edge with that because it's
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: a seven and a half total on the games, you
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: probably are going like under maybe three and a half
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: in the in the first five, which you know that's
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: about my cutoff. I usually won't want to go under
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: three in the verse five, but we will see. All right, Well, uh,
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: should we go to college basketball next? Even though it's
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: at night. I don't really have a whole lot to
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: say about these games. Really. We have a Tennessee in Michigan.
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: Tennessee has made their way to the Elite eight. I
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: had them in the sweet sixteen in my bracket and
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: then they got a little bit of a break because
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: Iowa State had Jefferson injured, so Jefferson Joshua Jefferson did
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: not play against Tennessee. Now Michigan, I think is gonna
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: be a totally different animal for Tennessee though, And I
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: know Michigan is my champion in my bracket, so I
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: need them to win. But I think they will win.
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: I mean they should their favor, but also Tennessee they
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: want to play a slow pace game, and they want
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: to play deepense. And while I do like the deepense,
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: and I do like you know that they can slow
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: they might be able to slow the pace down. I
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: usually look that way with an underdog. Problem is that
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: Michigan might be too good for them. And Michigan is
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: also very good on defense. Michigan is better on deepense
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: than Tennessee is. They're just better all around, and they're
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: way better on offense than Tennessee is. Michigan is gonna
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: try to speed the game up a bit, and they
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: may be able to do that. So I think that's
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: gonna throw Tennessee off too, because I don't have ken
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: pump up. But I'm pretty sure that Iowa State is
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: more of a slowish pace team. So Tennessee is coming
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: up playing like Virginia Iowa State. Those teams play slow.
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: The last time they played a fast based team was
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: Miami Ohio. And obviously Tennessee could just completely dominate Miami Ohio.
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: Because Miami Ohio doesn't play any deepfense. There's not a
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: good team at all. Michigan is not that and Michigan
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: is also one of the few teams in the country
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: that has enough size that they might be able to
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: beat what Tennessee does the best, which is rebound. Tennessee
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: gets a lot of offensive rebounds. Michigan has a ton
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: of size on the front court, so Tennessee might not
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: be able to dominate the rebounding battle like they usually do.
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: So I don't think this is a very good matchup
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: for Tennessee. I think Michigan wins this game. I would
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: lean towards them. Covering This game will be in Chicago.
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: Both fan bases should have a good amount of people
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: at the game, so you know, I think both teams
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: will be well represented with the fan base. Michigan is
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: a little bit public, seventy two percent of tickets, eighty
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: two percent of the cash on them too, though it
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: looks like the real money is actually on Mischigan as well.
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: This game is actually in the afternoon because it's Sunday,
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: I forgot. Hopefully they can get it done at least
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: win for our bracket purpos this year, which they should.
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think I'd rather have them playing Tennessee
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: than Iowa State, although if it was Iowa State without Jefferson,
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: I think Michigan would win that game. So Yeah, that's
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: what we got going on Michigan. I mean, I know
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: they hit that lall at the end of the regular season,
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: but they have really turned it on in the in
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: the tournament here, and I believe Michigan is the first
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: team in history to I believe they've scored ninety plus
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: in every game in the tournament so far. I think
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: that the first team to score ninety plus in the
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: first three games of the tournament while also shooting fifty percent.
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: And I think they've been shooting like forty percent from
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: three point range even though they're not even known it
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: is a three point shooting team, so you know, I
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: mean a lot of the talk was, well, they're gonna
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: miss case On because he's one of their best bench players.
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: But they've been able, they've been able to overcome that man.
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: So yeah, Michigan. Yeah, obviously they're they're elite. So you know,
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: that's Uh. I don't have a whole lot else to
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: say about that, you know, I mean, the total is
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: not that high. It's in the one forties, so it's
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: kind of a mix, like, you know, will Michigan wind
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: up slowing, you know, will they wind up playing a
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: little bit slow as well maybe, but you know, they
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: don't want to go too slow because that's what Tennessee
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: wants to Tennessee. Their only chance in this game is
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: to keep this game very low scoring and stay within
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: range here. But Tennessee one thing they don't do well
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: is also they don't really prevent three pointers from being taken.
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: And Michigan might take advantage of that too. I don't
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: because Michigan can kind of just do everything well. Uh
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: So that's what we got going on there. And then
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: Yu kind of Duke in the East region here that
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: that one that I talked about was the Midwest East
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: region in Washington, d C. Both teams are gonna have
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: huge fan bases here. I think Duke probably will have
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a crowd edge here because it's
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: close our Duke massive fan base. So the Yukon also
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: has a big one as well. People might put more
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: stock into Yukon beating Michigan State because oh, Yukon beat
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: tom Izzo in March. You know, that's a huge deal,
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: whereas maybe Duke beating Saint John's wasn't as big. All
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: those Saint John's did seem like kind of a popular
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: pick there, but people might not want Duke because they
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: didn't look good against Saint John's, like Duke was losing
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: most of that game against Saint John's. But you know
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: what I always say, I think that puts a scare
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: into a team like Duke. You know what I mean,
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: Duke is the better team here over Yukon and Saint John's. Maybe, yeah,
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: put Duke, you know, scare Duke a little bit, and
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: maybe Duke is gonna show up with more focus here. Also,
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: what I didn't realize is that Caleb Foster actually came
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: back in that game for Duke, so they had to
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: work him back into the starting lineup. And you know what,
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: I always talk about the reverse injured player theory. When
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: that happens a lot of times, the team won't gel
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: right away. Now you're talking about the second game with
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: Foster back here, so they should be better now they
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: have that game under their belt. And I didn't realize Notnagung,
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: but actually came back to the game before that game.
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: So Duke has all their players back, so they're not
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: even injured anymore. Now, quick turnaround time. I forgot to
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: mention this. You do have to talk about the coaching teams.
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: You know, with a two day turnaround, you want to
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: look towards the better coach. With the Michigan Tennessee game,
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: I got to give that edge to Dusty May, even
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: though not Dustin May who is pitching today, but Dusty
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: May even though Tennessee their coach is very experienced, Rick Barnes,
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: but the one knock on him is he can't get
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: to the final four and hopefully that continues to be
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: the case for our bracket purposes here. Man, I you
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: know it would be pretty bad if the one time
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: he breaks through is against our champion. I would be
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: fucking pissed. That better not happen for Yukon and Duke.
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: I think you do have to give the edge to
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: Hurley for the coaching over John Shy or Hurley has
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: just done it more times. Man, that's the whole thing,
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: you know. But he's also a psycho. And I still
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: don't think Yukon is as good as they have been
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: in these past seasons. Man. We know they're not as good.
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: And that's the thing about matching up with Duke. Now,
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: Yukon just played Michigan State, who's a very comparable team
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: that plays a very similar style. Duke plays slow as well.
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: All Duke, Yukon, Michigan State, they all want to go slow.
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: But the thing about Duke that is not the case
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: for Yukon or Michigan State is that Duke actually has
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: a good offense and these other teams do not. So
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: even though Yukon can play deepfense, Michigan State also can
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: play defense, Duke is actually a better defensive team than
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: both teams as well. So Duke is the better team
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: here on both sides of the ball, and they have
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: more size as well. Yukon does have a little bit
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: more experience. I guess Duke is a very young team.
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: Yukon does have, like Caravan. They got a couple of
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: guys were there on those championship teams, but I don't
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: know if that's gonna be enough. I like Duke in
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: this game. Duke is a five point favorite. Fifty percent
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: of tickets on Yukon, fifty four percent of the cash
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: on Duke. I agree with that money split there. I
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: would lean towards Duke in this one. Of course, I
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: do have Duke in my bracket. I do have them
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: getting to the championship game. As you guys know, in
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: my brackets so we will say but uh yeah, that's uh,
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: that's the basketball man. All right, I'm gonna do what
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: I usually do, take a quick break, and then I'm
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: gonna talk about hockey. There's not a whole lot of
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: hockey today, and NBA there's a little bit. I think
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: there are six hockey games and ten NBA games. I
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: do have one hockey game, and I will give out
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: as a play. I'll be back in a second. All right,
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: NHL here we have one afternoon game on a NHL network.
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: Flour and the Rangers, two teams that are going nowhere
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: this year. Florida played yesterday. I think the Rangers are
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: the only team playing today that didn't play yesterday, because
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: almost every team played yesterday. I think the Rangers were
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: like one of the only two teams that did not.
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: Florida lost in at the Islanders five to two yesterday,
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: so they're staying in New York, so at least there's that.
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: I guess they don't have to travel that far for this.
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: Will they get up for this game? I don't know, man.
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: I mean again, Rangers are already eliminated from the playoffs. Florida,
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: if they're not, they're very close to being eliminated. The
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: Rangers blew out Chicago two days ago on Friday. They
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: are staying at home. They didn't end a seven or
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: six game losing streak. Excuse me, so A lot of
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: times when a team ends a losing streak, they'll be
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: they'll have new momentum, and they'll show up for the
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: next game. But we do know the Rangers typically are
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: really bad at home. I just don't know what to
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: expect here. Man, it looks like the Rangers are switching
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: up their goalies here. I don't know if Quick is
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: injured or what. But garan to play it in the
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: last not the is that an m one garand that
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: they have a gun in net here? I don't know,
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: I have, dude, I have no idea. But yeah, this
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: game is like I think, if I was gonna play
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: this game, I think the only way I would really
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: be able to play it is the over. We do
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: have eighty one percent of tickets ninety seven percent of
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: the cash on the over. Again, I talk about this
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: when the season is over for both teams. Over is
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: usually worth a look because you just get less intense defense,
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean. Uh So that's probably the
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: way I would lean in this game. Rangers are up
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: to minus one sixty on the money line. Who would
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: ever think the Rangers would be that heavy of a
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: favorite against anybody this year, especially against the back to
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: back defending champs here who are not going to defend
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: their title this year. Sixty tickets, seventy two percent of
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: the cash on the Rangers. I don't have a good
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: feel for the side. I think that's way too heavy
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: of a price though for the Rangers, though, so I
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: guess you know. It's part of it is because the
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: Rangers didn't play yesterday and Florida did, so I think
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: that's why the price is that high on the Rangers.
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: It's probably too high, to be honest, but my opinion
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: would be to go over in that game. Nashville at
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. Nashville losing again yesterday. They've lost two games
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: in a row in which should have been positive spots
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: for them. Now they gotta go play Tampa Bay. Maybe
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: it would be good for them just go out on
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: the road, try to focus on hockey. Nashville is trying
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: to stay live in the playoff race, but they do
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: have the Kings coming up next. Two of their next
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: three games. That's gonna decide a lot, I think because
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: the Kings are they're the team that they're battling for
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: that last playoff spot. I don't know if they're really
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: gonna overlook Tampa Bay either, though. I mean Tampa Bay's
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: a good team. Tampa Bay doesn't really need to win
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: at this point, like they're going to be in the playoffs.
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: They just beat Outaway yesterday, who was fighting for a
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: playoff spot. They got Montreal and Pittsburgh coming up next, Boston, Buffalo, Ottawa, Montreal, Boston, Detroit.
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: So all the remaining games except their finale against the
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: Rangers are against potential playoff teams coming up. So this
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: is not a good spot for Tampa. I'm gonna lean
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: to Nashville slightly in this one, but I don't have
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: a strong opinion on it. Tampa's minus one ninety six,
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: so it would probably be like a puck line situation
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: on Nashville. Things have not worked out for Nashville the
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: last couple of games though. Montreal at Carolina Montreal, I mean,
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: both these teams are going to be in the playoffs,
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: but I think Carolina is more secure in their playoff
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: spot at this point. Montreal did just beat Nashville yesterday,
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: They're having to travel from there to Carolina. Carolina also
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: played yesterday, as I said, like every team did except
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: for the Rangers, and I forget who the other team was.
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: Carolina is a little bit more rested though, because they
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: didn't play. They had three days off before playing yesterday.
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: Part of it was because they were turned on from
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: a road trip, but they still got an easy win
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: yesterday against the Devils. Now it's their second game back home.
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: They're a little bit more rested here. They're staying at
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: home in Carolina to finish that road trip. The game
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: before the New Jersey game, Carolina lost to this Canadians team.
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: So I actually like Carolina in this one to bounce back.
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: I think they will actually show up for this one.
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: The money's coming in on Montreal pretty strongly, and I
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: don't agree with that. I mean, the only the argument
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: that I see for that is that Carolina just doesn't
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: need to win this game because they're more secure in
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: their playoff spot. But that's the only really real argument
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: that I see. But Montreal is not really in danger
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: of missing missing the playoffs either. Carolina minus one seventy
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: one here, seventy four percent of tickets on them, eighty
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Montreal. We'll see what happens
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: in that one. Man, next game up will be my play,
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: and I will be going against my own team. Here,
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: you gotta throw bias out the window. Man, We were
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: trying to make money here. We're gonna go with a
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: split bet on the Columbus Blue Jackets minus one and
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: a half puck line at plus one seventy the money
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: line at minus one forty eight. If you want to
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: just go on the money line, you could do that too,
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: but this is a way to get the price down,
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: and we got it down to a plus one oh
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: nine price here. As you can see, these were the
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: numbers that I used for this wound up being fifty four.
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: Like if you were trying to win win one hundred
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: on this, which I three x from that, but still
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: then you would have fifty four or fifty five bucks
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: out of that bet on the on the minus portion
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: of it on the money line, and then the rest
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: of the and then you put actually, you don't even
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: have to bet one hundred on this to win one
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: hundred because you're making a minus one puck line that's
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: at plus one o nine, So you're getting plus money
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: on this if you if you get what I'm saying,
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: so then you only had to put like thirty seven
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: of it on the the money line there, or sorry,
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: on the puck line there at plus money all right,
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: But anyway, the situation I don't like to spot. The
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: Bruins are in Man. I mean, first of all, they're
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: on the road, so that's right away, that's bad. The
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: Bruins are way better at home on the road. They're fourteen,
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: fourteen and seven, so that's not good. If Columbus wins
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: in overtime, we'll at least get our money back here.
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: Columbus is also really good at home twenty wins, nine losses,
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: and seven overtime losses, so Columbus has been good at home,
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: so the home road splits look pretty good for us
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: in this one. The Bruins just beat Minnesota yesterday. That
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: was a huge win against a pretty good Minnesota team.
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: Bruins beat Buffalo the game before that as well, which
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: was a big win as well, So Bruin's coming off
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: two big wins. I know the Bruins have to keep
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: winning to maintain a wildcard spot. Here, but they got
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: Dallas on deck, and then they have Florida and the Bruins.
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: Florida they don't like each other. Florida has Marshan, you
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: know that's kind of a rival. And then they got
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: Tampa after that. So really, this still looks like a
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: flat spot to me. Man in the schedule they're having
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: to travel to Columbus for one game with no days
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: off here. I know they had a couple of days
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: off before the Minnesota game, but still it's a very
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: strange spot. I don't like it, and Columbus is still
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: trying to maintain their playoff position as well. Columbus also
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: they they're staying at home and they lost in their
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: home game yesterday. I told you I liked San Jose
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: in that game yesterday. Columbus was returning on from a
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: road trip. It was a bad spot kind of they
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: got caught. They'd played Montreal the game, but prior to
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: that they had Boston Carolina on deck. I think you're
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: gonna get a better reffort out of them in this game,
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: because I think they were looking ahead and when teams
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: were turned on from road trips, and they don't do
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: well in that first game a lot of times they
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: will do better that second game back now that they're
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: settled and they've gotten some stuff done at home, whatever
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: they needed to do. Columbus is the play here. The
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: money is very much in alignment with me. Here were
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: the Bruins fifty six percent of the tickets on them,
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: ninety two percent of the cash on the Blue Jackets.
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: Though on the b JS money line looks like it's
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: at about minus one fifty seven. There I saw like
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: a wide range of money line zough. Which you know
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: the advantage of finding puck line and money line is
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: if you have a bunch of different books a your disposed,
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: so you can find a better number at different books potentially,
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: right like put part of the bet, you know, like
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: you can have you could split your bet across different books,
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: you know what I'm saying, any of the best number
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: that way, all right? NHL Network not really a double header,
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: but they do have a night game as well, which
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: is a pretty bad game. Blackhawks and Devils Chicago and
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: New Jersey. Chicago just got wiped out by the Rangers yesterday.
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: They're playing a third game in four days, fourth game
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: in six days, all in different cities, but going from
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: New York to New Jersey is not a long trip obviously,
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: so at least they have that going for them. The
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: Devils are returning home from a road trip, so that
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: is worse. The Devils have been on the road since
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: Wednesday the eighteenth, although that first game was in New York.
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: But still they're returning over from a road trip. You
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: know what I always say, And they played yesterday at
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: Carol Lione. On team returning over from a road trip,
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: bad spot, typically, I you know, you have to get
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: back to home life. You might overlook your opponent. They
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: might overlook Chicago's. Chicago's just not that good. They got
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: the Rangers again on deck, which is at least a
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: rivalry between these two teams. Both these teams are going
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: nowhere Devils, Blackhawks, and neither team is making the playoffs here.
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: The money is kind of coming into a New Jersey
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: right now. But I don't agree with that. I would
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: lean towards Chicago here because they're actually staying in the
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: New York area. New Jersey's returning from a road trip.
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: Seventy three percent of tickets, ninety five percent of the
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: casual on New Jersey. They're at minus one sixty four
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: on the money line here, I would lean towards Chicago,
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: maybe like a split puck line money line situation. I
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: also would agree with an over, even though we see
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: sixty nine percent of tickets on the over and fifty
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: four percent of the casual on the under. When you
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: have two teams that are not well rested, I think
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: that deepense. And also again, these two teams are going nowhere,
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: so I don't see the deep bets being very intense here,
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: So an over in that game makes sense to me
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: as well. By the way my over leans last night,
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: the Vancouver Calgary won won with no sweat at all,
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: that went way over ten and then the other one
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: I think pushed the six on Toronto Saint Louis, So
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: you know that one might have been a little bit luckier.
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: But those are my opinions yesterday that I gave out
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: on the totals. Dallas at Philadelphia to finish this off,
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: Dallas coming off ending a four game losing streak by
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: beating Pittsburgh. So a lot of times when the team
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: ends a losing streak, they'll have new momentum coming into
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: the next game. But then again, Pittsburgh is gonna be
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: in the playoffs. That was a good win. They got
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: Boston on deck. Maybe they overlook Philadelphia, who right now
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: is outside of the playoffs, and Philadelphia is gonna be
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: motivated here. Both teams played yesterday. Problem is Philadelphia is
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: returning home from Detroit and they won big win at
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: Detroit for Philadelphia there. Man, Although Philadelphia, you know they'll
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: they'll show up for a game against Dallas still though,
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: especially against Philadelphia is still trying to stay alive in
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: the playoff race here and they're an underdog, and you know,
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: I like that, Like when a team you know needs
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: to win or whatever, sometimes they'll be overvalued. But in
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: a situation where they're a home underdog like this against
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: a team that everybody knows is better than they are,
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: that's the way that I'm gonna lean here. I will
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: lean to Philadelphia here. Sixty eight percent of tickets, fifty
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: eight percent of the cash on Dallas, there're minus one
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: fifty five here. I just don't see Dallas having that
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: much motivation, and that when Dallas is already pretty much
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: locked into the playoffs. So slightly into Philadelphia there. As
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: far as the NBA goes, we got some NBA games.
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: I don't have any plays in the NBA. I don't
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: like this board at all. Here we got I think
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: eight games, nine games here have some afternoon action on
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: NBA TV between the Clippers and the Box. This is
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: bad Clippers at Milwaukee. Clippers just barely got by Indiana
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: in their last game, so you might argue that, well,
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: that was a scare, so they might show up with
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: more effort here. I don't know, because Milwaukee is also
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: just playing out the stretch. I don't think Giannis is
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: coming back. Milwaukee's going nowhere. But Milwaukee did just get
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: embarrassed ish by san Antonio. I know san Antonio is good,
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: but three straight embarrassing losses from Milwaukee. That last one
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: was in a return home spot, so maybe they will
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: bounce back from that. That was yesterday though, so Milwaukee
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: has no days off so that they don't have any
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: rest here. So that's not good. But then again, they
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: got blown out. They might actually try to show up
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: here because a lot of times second game back home,
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: you'll get a better effort out of that team. A
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: lot of times, maybe they will show up for once here.
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: It's a difficult handicap in this one. Man, I think
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: the Clippers are probably favored by a bit too much
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: because of that rest advantage they have. They're up to
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: minus four thirteen on the road here, sixty three percent
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: of tickets on them, fifty six percent of the cash
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: on Milwaukee. Money is indicating on Milwaukee. I don't really
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: have that much of a reason to disagree with that,
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: But no real strong opinion for me there at all.
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: My opinions yesterday were pretty good in basketball, by the way,
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: and I didn't give it a play on any of them.
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: But Philadelphia won outright, so I got that right. Uh,
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: Sacramento covered against Atlanta, Phoenix covered, So yeah, I had
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: some good opinions yesterday. Man. I think Memphis was another
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: one on my leans yesterday too, Right, Yeah, I should
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: have just sprayed the board. I should have just played
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: all NBA games yesterday, Miami and Indiana. Miami coming off
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: getting blown out by Cleveland in a zigzag after they
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: beat Cleveland the previous game. Maybe they will bounce back
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: after a bad loss like that, And Miami does have
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: something to play for here, but that's gonna mean they're overvalued.
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: That's the problem. They're trying to, you know, get their
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: playoff positioning set here. I think they can. They're playing
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: to avoid the play in I think pretty much they
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: got Philadelphia and Boston on deck, though those are two
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: big games possible. They don't take Indiana totally seriously here.
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: Indiana did just have a big game, well kind of
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: a big performance, I guess themselves. They just played really
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: close against both like both the Lakers and the Clippers
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: will somewhat close against the Lakers and really close against
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: the Clippers. I don't see them overlooking Miami, but I
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: don't know what Indiana is gonna have left in the tank.
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: The one good thing for Indiana is it looks like
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: they're still giving you effort down the stretch, so there
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: is that Indiana is not quitting the Heat or a
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: public side. They're minus eight and a half. I think
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: basically the Heat are probably a bit overvalued because everybody
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: knows that the better team, but also they're fighting for
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: playoff positioning here, you know what I mean, So that's
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: probably gonna overvalue them a little bit. Sixty five percent
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: of tickets, sixty percent of the cash on the Heat,
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: I'll agree with that market read and leans slightly so.
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: Taking the points of the Pacers but I don't like
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: it really at all. Kings at Brooklyn. I mean, these
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: two teams both playing out the stretch here, man, So
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: you know I talk about this. This game could turn
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: into a scrimmage here. The Kings did just cover yesterday
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: against Atlanta, so they're also playing a very tightly packed schedule,
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: back to back, four games in the last six days,
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: five in the last eight days own different cities. That's
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: not that easy, man, especially you know they're coming off
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: a cover as an underdog here as a big underdog.
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: Brooklyn is returning on from a road trip, but they
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: went out out west, out to the Pacific Coast. They've
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: ben o wastines last Sunday. You know that's not good.
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: When a team returns home from a road treub, a
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: lot of times they will not be focused and they'll
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: overlook their opponents. So it's a bad spot for them too,
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: even though they're on this massive losing streak. I would
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: play the over in this game. I feel like a
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: broken record. But that's the situation, man, when you have
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: two teams that have nothing to play for and they're
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: both kind of in questionable spot, not that well rested.
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: I think this game could definitely turn into a scrimmage.
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: And there's just multiple reasons you won't see intense deepense here.
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: Seventy six percent of tickets eighty one percent of the
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: cash on the over here. Money might agree with me here,
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: it's a fairly low total A two twenty one and
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: a half. I think, probably because these teams just have
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: nobody playing for them, so it's like, where are the
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: points gonna come from? Well, again, the answer to that
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: is the deep fenses just won't play well. So yeah,
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: I like the over and I wouldn't really disagree with
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 1: the Kings here because the Nets are returning over from
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: a road trip. Kings did flip from plus one and
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: a half to minus one here. Money looks like it
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: is coming in on the nets though, fifty two percent
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: of tickets eighty one percent of the cash on the nets.
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: I would not play the Nets though in a return
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: home spot like that, I would lean towards the Kings there.
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: But over, I think is the better way to go
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: with that game. My boss at Celtics are at Charlotte here.
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: I know the market read on this is indicating on Charlotte.
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: I'm worried about it. Charlotte tends to play the Celtics
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: really well. Charlotte's coach was a former assistant coach of
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: the Celtics, so that's why Charlotte plays a similar style
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: to the Celtics. You'd think that would play into the
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: Celtics hand though, because the Celtics are just better at it,
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: but that hasn't been the case. The Celtics are coming
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: off a win over Atlanta and starting a road trip here,
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: so it's not a horrible spot for the Celtics really.
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: You know. They covered against Atlanta, but it was a
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: somewhat lackluster win and Jalen Brown didn't play in the game,
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: so he might be back in this one. Starting a
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: road trip with momentum usually as a positive, you know,
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: so maybe the Celtics will show up for this one.
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: They did just lose to Charlotte really bad at home.
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: Back on March fourth, Charlotte embarrassed the Celtics in Boston,
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 1: beating them by almost thirty points, So the Celtics might
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: have a little bit of a chip on their shoulder
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: here after that Atlanta had beaten them in Boston. I
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: believe the previous game that they played Atlanta as well. Yeah,
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: this one back on January twenty eighth, and Atlanta beat
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: them by eleven, so that might have had the Celtics
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: a little bit more motivated in their last game as well.
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 1: So there are some reasons to kind of like the
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: spot for the Celtics here. Charlotte, they just lost a
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: five game win streak playing yesterday, so Charlotte is not rested.
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: They played yesterday, They beat the Knicks on Thursday, big win,
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: and then they played Philadelphia close yesterday, although they did
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: lose as a favorite, so a lot of times when
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: the team loses as a favorite, they will bounce back.
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: But that was against the Philadelphia team that is going
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: to be in the playoffs, probably in some capacity at
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: least in the play in if you want to call
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: that the playoffs. Charlotte losing a win streak. Sometimes you
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: lose a win streak, it will hang you over into
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 1: the next game, So that is a concern there as well.
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: The market Reid is all over the Hornets, though they
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: flip from plus two to minus one here, sixty seven
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets and only fifty four percent of the
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: cash on the Celtics, So I don't like that at all.
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: The Celtics are basically a public underdog here, so my
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: tendency looking at that market read would be to fade
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: the Celtics and play the Hornets here. But I think
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 1: the situational setup is actually better for the Celtics here,
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 1: so I'm not fully convinced, although I definitely worry that
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: the Celtics is gonna lose this game, and if they do,
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: the Knicks better lose today too. I also have to
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: pay attention to the injury report. Tatum, White, and Brown
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: are all game time decisions here, so we'll see how
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: that works out for the Celtics. It looks like with Charlotte,
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: with the line moving on Charlotte, it looks like maybe
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: one of those guys might not play, So we'll see
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: what happens here. Man Celtics trying to, you know, manage
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: their playing time down the stretch here to them get
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: ready for the playoffs. Playoffs, so we'll see Orlando at Toronto.
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: These teams are kind of fighting each other for like
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: playoff positioning, trying to avoid the playing games, etc. Orlando
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 1: just ended a six game losing streak with a bad
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: win really over Sacramento, a non covering win, but That's
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: good for a couple of reasons, because it ends their
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: losing streak. That can give them some new momentum. And
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: it was not a good win. They barely got by Sacramento,
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: so that might shock them into focus too. So I
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: think those are positives for Orlando, even though they do
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: have to go up to Toronto here, they have a
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: couple of days off. You can kind of explain why
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 1: Orlando didn't play that well against Sacramento because they were
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: coming off a cover at Cleveland where they played pretty well,
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: so maybe they were hung over a little bit. Toronto
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 1: is not that good at home. They're also pretty bad
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: as a home favorite. By the way. They just don't
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: cover a lot. Toronto did return home in their last
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: game and they beat New Orleans, so they are staying
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: at home here. Second game back home usually is a positive,
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: but I think it's more of a positive when you
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: didn't have a good game in the first game, which
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 1: they did. I'm gonna slightly lead to Orlando in this one.
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: The money does agree with me on this. Toronto's a
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: home favorite, which again Toronto is. They're below five against
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: the spread as a home favorite. They're not very good
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 1: at home. Fifty nine percent of the tickets around Toronto
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: as a minus two and a half point favorite. Here
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: eighty four percent of the cash on the Magic, so
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: the money is coming in on Orlando there. I agree
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 1: with it. I would lean Orlando not a strong enough
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 1: opinion for me, though. Washington at Portland. Washington just almost
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: pulled off an upset as a big favorite at as
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 1: a big underdog. Excuse me. At Golden State. They were
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: like double digit underdogs in that game for sure, even
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: though Golden State is injured. And I talk about this.
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: When a team almost pulls off a big upset as
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: a double digit underdog, a lot of times they won't
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: play well in the next game. But they do have
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: to play the Lakers tomorrow. So as weird as it sounds,
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 1: Washington might overlook Portland here, man, even though Washington is
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 1: losing every game, this looks kind of sandwiche to make.
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: Portland does have some motivation because I think they're playing
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: to maybe get better playoff positioning here. I don't even
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: know if that's possible at this point, though Portland did
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: just lose as a big favorite to Dallas, so I
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 1: think it's a positive spot for Portland off of that.
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: Portland was a double digit favorite against Dallas, dude, and
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 1: they lost the game outright. And you know, I talk
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: about this, when a team loses as a big favorite,
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 1: a lot of times they will bounce back from that.
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 1: They are staying at home. So this spot is definitely
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 1: better for Portland. The problem is, I think because Portland
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: is playing for playoff positioning, I think you're laying too
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: many points with them. Probably you're laying sixteen and a half.
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: Imagine that with a team below five hundred to lank
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 1: sixteen and a half. Ridiculous. This is the new NBA
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 1: man seventy nine percent of ticket, seventy one percent of
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: the cash on Portland, so the money is indicating towards
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 1: the Wizards. I would not do that. If I was
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 1: gonna play the game, I would lay it with Portland.
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: But you're going against the market. Read in that one
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 1: if you do it. We have Nicks at Oklahoma City.
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 1: We have a Peak Auck and NBC doubleheader at night here.
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: This game is pretty good. The Knicks at the Thunder.
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: I'm hoping the Thunder win just because I don't like
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 1: the Knicks, and you know, rooting for the Celtics to
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 1: like snatch that two seed, which I think will be
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 1: a little bit better because they'll get the home advantage
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: in the two versus three matchup and whatever. I'd probably
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 1: get a better matchup in the first series. The Knicks
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: just lost along wind streak. They had a seven game
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 1: win streak snapped with a loss to Charlotte on Thursday.
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 1: And you know, I talk about it when a team
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: loses a wind streak a lot of times it will
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: be hung over into the next game. Now they're gonna
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 1: get up for it, though, because it is the Thunder.
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: You know you're gonna try to play well in a
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 1: game like that. Thunder don't really have a whole lot
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 1: to play for here, though. I think there's still they
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 1: haven't clinched the one seed yet, so there is that
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 1: at least, But that doesn't matter that much. But maybe
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 1: they'll show up just because people are gonna be hailing
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 1: this as like, do these people outside revving their fucking
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 1: motorcycle engines? These people should be just banned from the road.
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 1: Fuck these people anyway, It's a Sunday morning, man, How
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 1: dare you? How dare I? How dare I swear on
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 1: a Sunday morning? But how dare these people do that?
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 1: Outside there? Man? Oklahoma City coming up that win over
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 1: Chicago where we did get the cover with the Bulls,
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 1: and that one barely It should have been a lot
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 1: easier though. Now Oklahoma City, that was a bad spot
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 1: for them. They lost a long wind streak, they'd return
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: home from a road trip, they played poorly for most
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: of the games. So I think that might scare them
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: back into focus a little bit here. And people are
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 1: gonna be hailing this as a finals preview or whatever,
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: you know, potential finals preview. It's a big TV game.
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: I think that will motivate the Thunder in this game.
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna lean slightly to the Thunder here. They're minus
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: eight and a half, sixty five percent of tickets, seventy
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: nine percent of the cash on them. But you know,
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 1: I mean the Thunder might have a little bit less
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: motivation here though, So that would worry me a bit.
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: Don't want to play the game, and I don't want
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 1: to play this last game either, which is the late
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: night portion of the double header here Golden State at Denver.
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 1: Golden State. I'm pretty sure they're still very injured. I
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: think they still are probably gonna be in the playing
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 1: games to try to get into the playoffs. Here, I
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: don't know. Golden State is coming up a bad performance
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: against Washington and against Brooklyn the game before that, where
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: they almost lost his big favorites in both games. So again,
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 1: a lot of times when you have a big favorite
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 1: that almost lost, they'll play better in the next game.
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 1: They're going to Denver, where they should be focused because
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 1: you know, Denver is one of the top teams in
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 1: really in the NBA, so you're gonna be focused when
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: you play Denver. Denver is staying at home though, and
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: they are coming off kind of a bad performance themselves,
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 1: barely getting by Utah in their last game, and it's
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 1: a big TV game, so maybe Dallas Will or Susie
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: Denver will show up for this game as well. That's
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 1: not what I wanted to look at here. I wanted
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 1: to look at the injury report here. Steph Curry is
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 1: still out. I have no idea if he's coming back
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 1: or not. Al Horford is still out as well for
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: Golden State. Looks like there's no injury report at all
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: for for Denver, which is interesting money coming on a
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 1: Denver slightly their twelve point favorite here eighty eight percent
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 1: of tickets, ninety five percent of the casual on the Nuggets,
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: I kind of, I don't know. I slightly disagree with it.
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: I think I would lean to the Warriors slightly, you know,
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 1: getting out of town after some bad performances at home,
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: getting a lot of points here, and the Nuggets have
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 1: not exactly been a covering machine at home this year.
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 1: So that's probably the way that I would lean. But
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: that's gonna do it, man. That's today's breakdown. The place
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 1: that they are both split run and or a puck
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: line and money line bets on the Houston Astros. That's
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 1: what the split is that I have there minus one
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 1: to have it plus one twenty five and minus one
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 1: seventy eight, and then the Blue Jackets in hockey at
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 1: plus one seventy on the minus one and a half
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: and minus one forty eight on the money line. That's
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: gonna do it. Learn its own on Twitter, learn it
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 1: tone on Instagram, like subscribe, reply to the channel here,
• 1:19:05
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• 1:19:10
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• 1:19:13
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• 1:19:15
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• 1:19:19
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• 1:19:22
  Speaker 1: That's what I need to do. I know I keep
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 1: saying that, but I got to figure something out here
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 1: and then loser castle me back on Tuesday night. That'll
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 1: do it for now. I appreciate it. Guys. Let's have
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 1: a winning day and peace.