Latest / WCHS Network Podcasts / 03/31/2025 Retire Right Radio with John Burdette

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03/31/2025 Retire Right Radio with John Burdette · WCHS Network Podcasts

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Speaker 1: Unlock your dream property with Meeks Realty Group, where Rich
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Speaker 2: The views and opinions expressed on this program do not
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Speaker 2: necessarily reflect the views and opinions of five eight WCCHS,
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Speaker 2: its employees or WVRC Media. This is retire Right Radio,
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Speaker 2: a weekly show from John Verdet at Fourth Avenue Financial
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Speaker 2: that aims to answer your questions about financial planning, investing,
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Speaker 2: and how to retire right. Fourth Avenue Financial is located
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Speaker 2: in downtown Charleston at one seventy Court Street. More information
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Speaker 2: online at Fourth Avenue Financial dot com. Join the conversation
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Speaker 2: by calling three oh four three four five fifty eight
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Speaker 2: fifty oh eight. On Retire Right Radio, let's go live
0:57
Speaker 2: to the studio with host Dale Cooper and John Verdet
1:00
Speaker 2: from Fourth Avenue Financial.
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Speaker 3: Nial Ry plus a Good Morning too. You're listening to
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Speaker 3: retire Right Radio one five adw CHS. The voice of
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Speaker 3: Charles and I'm del Cooper n Studio with me this morning.
1:10
Speaker 3: John Fordabt is here. It is not quite April yet.
1:13
Speaker 3: It is the last day of March. As we're bringing in.
1:17
Speaker 3: I guess spring seems to be ushering itself in pretty well.
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Speaker 3: Is a warmer weekend worm Yeah, yeah, exactly. Some thunderstorms
1:24
Speaker 3: coming through. We have a little bit moist this morning.
1:28
Speaker 3: People hate that word, but it's a little moist this
1:30
Speaker 3: morning when you're driving in. But not too bad. Not
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Speaker 3: too bad. It's there's no frost on the windshield. How
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Speaker 3: about that sounds good to me? Yeah, not bad at all.
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Speaker 3: That's John Bredet with Fourth Avenue Financial. More information online
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Speaker 3: Fourth Avenue Financial dot com. Fourth Avenue Financial dot com.
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Speaker 3: You can spell out the whole thing. Don't abbreviate anything,
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Speaker 3: spell out the whole thing. You can also do that
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Speaker 3: same like over on Facebook and like the page over there.
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Speaker 4: Every week.
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Speaker 3: Retire Right Radio is a service of Fourth Avenue Financial.
1:54
Speaker 3: Right here on five DWCHS eight twenty every Monday morning.
1:57
Speaker 3: You can catch the program with Jen Bredet for Fourth
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Speaker 3: Avenue Financial. You can put your retirement on the topic
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Speaker 3: and you can give us a call.
2:03
Speaker 4: This morning.
2:03
Speaker 3: If you have any questions about how you can retire
2:05
Speaker 3: right if you have any questions about how to navigate
2:07
Speaker 3: things that are going on a little different market than
2:09
Speaker 3: what we've experienced, even post COVID and everything else. Things
2:13
Speaker 3: are just a little bit different right now. So maybe
2:15
Speaker 3: you need some advice on how to handle that. You
2:17
Speaker 3: can give us a call this morning. Maybe some advice
2:20
Speaker 3: for a loved one, or you have some abstract ideas.
2:23
Speaker 3: You know something you may be doing in the future,
2:25
Speaker 3: you want to know how to handle that well. John
2:27
Speaker 3: can help you put you on the right path for
2:29
Speaker 3: all of those things. Give us a call this morning.
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Speaker 3: Three zero four three four five fifty eight. Man, I
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Speaker 3: can't do it. Give us a call this morning. Three's
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Speaker 3: are a four three four two eight one three one.
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Speaker 3: Threes are A four three four two eight one three one.
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Speaker 3: Our office line number again is still in effect. We'll
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Speaker 3: be moving back over to our traditional number pretty soon.
2:44
Speaker 3: If you've been listening to end of our programs recently,
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Speaker 3: you know that we moved over studios. John, I don't
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Speaker 3: think you've seen them yet.
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Speaker 4: Have you I have not. We'll have to go.
2:50
Speaker 3: I'll have to give you a little tour of we'll
2:52
Speaker 3: be moving. Yeah, we'll be moving over to a new
2:55
Speaker 3: location very soon ourselves. But the main studios are all
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Speaker 3: launched over there for WC Jess and Metro News, and.
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Speaker 4: It looks pretty good. It looks pretty good.
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Speaker 3: But you can call us this morning at three zero
3:04
Speaker 3: four three four two eight one three one with any
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Speaker 3: questions for John Burdett from Fourth Avenue Financial. So I
3:09
Speaker 3: guess we had Amy Smith on from Investors Business Daily
3:13
Speaker 3: last week when Metro News Hotline, and she said there
3:16
Speaker 3: really was anything to say about the market as far
3:18
Speaker 3: as defining anything other than.
3:20
Speaker 4: It's just a churn right now. It's just kind of churning.
3:23
Speaker 5: Yeah, of course it seems to be churning a little
3:25
Speaker 5: bit lower.
3:26
Speaker 4: Yeah, a little bit on the low side.
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Speaker 5: I think we were down a little bit last week,
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Speaker 5: kind of across the board. Markets are down for the year.
3:35
Speaker 5: They've rebounded a little bit from a couple of weeks ago,
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Speaker 5: but last week was a down week. The Dow's down
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Speaker 5: a couple percent this year, the Nasdaq, the tech heavies
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Speaker 5: down ten the Dows or the S and P's down five.
3:48
Speaker 2: Uh.
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Speaker 5: The international markets are still up nine percent, so that
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Speaker 5: that's a great case for diversification there for sure. You know,
3:58
Speaker 5: last week we were doing pretty well and it looks
4:01
Speaker 5: like the the tariff news came through and on the
4:05
Speaker 5: on the autos and such, and I think that riled
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Speaker 5: the market. I'm not so sure that those things will
4:12
Speaker 5: have true effects necessarily. I mean, it will affect things,
4:19
Speaker 5: but you know, corporate earnings, things of that nature, it's
4:22
Speaker 5: probably less of an impact than the news story is
4:26
Speaker 5: that everybody is talking about. You know, the United States.
4:32
Speaker 5: You know, seventy percent of our economy is not related
4:35
Speaker 5: to imports or exports at all. It's all internal and
4:39
Speaker 5: our trading partners are opposite of that generally. So you know,
4:44
Speaker 5: a lot of these countries that are being tariffed are
4:48
Speaker 5: are much more dependent on us than us on them.
4:53
Speaker 5: So we'll see how that all plays out. And there again,
4:55
Speaker 5: this could be all a grand negotiation. Who knows what
4:59
Speaker 5: what actually plays out right now. It is the autos
5:04
Speaker 5: that were talked about last week, but of course those
5:07
Speaker 5: are autos that are I believe it's important and full,
5:11
Speaker 5: which is a whole lot different than parts and things
5:14
Speaker 5: like that that are you know, simple different places. So
5:18
Speaker 5: you know, it's not even the whole auto sector. It's
5:23
Speaker 5: like I say, I think the headlines are a little
5:25
Speaker 5: bit bigger than maybe the actual event is.
5:32
Speaker 3: We've been running into that a lot recently, right, I mean,
5:34
Speaker 3: we have the same sort of thing with inflation and
5:38
Speaker 3: things like that. You know, the headlines on inflation were
5:40
Speaker 3: actually a lot worse than inflation actually was, especially in
5:43
Speaker 3: the United States when compared against the rest of the
5:44
Speaker 3: country and things like that. So the narrative of this,
5:46
Speaker 3: because sentiment draws everything, the narrative of this is tariffs everywhere,
5:50
Speaker 3: prices are going to go out of control, et cetera,
5:52
Speaker 3: regardless of what the actual dollars and cents are on it.
5:55
Speaker 3: Sometimes sentiment is what controls today.
5:57
Speaker 4: Yeah.
5:57
Speaker 5: Yeah, And like I say, some of these countries that
6:00
Speaker 5: we're trading with, they have and of course these auto
6:04
Speaker 5: tariffs are different. So the next step they're talking about
6:07
Speaker 5: are the reciprocal tariffs, trying to equalize trade. So that's
6:12
Speaker 5: not necessarily putting tariffs on you know, there are certainly
6:17
Speaker 5: new tariffs, but these countries are already putting tariffs on
6:20
Speaker 5: our goods, and so a reciprocal basically means we're trying
6:24
Speaker 5: to equalize it so that you know, we're not. I
6:27
Speaker 5: if they're charging us at tariff, we're going to charge
6:30
Speaker 5: them at tariff. So that that is the next steps
6:33
Speaker 5: that's being talked about. And there again that that certainly
6:38
Speaker 5: you know, will add costs to the to the to
6:42
Speaker 5: the chain. But a lot of times tariffs don't even
6:45
Speaker 5: get you know, companies move things around, they shift things
6:49
Speaker 5: to go certain ways to get around the tariff. So
6:53
Speaker 5: you know, most studies show that that a very small
6:56
Speaker 5: percentage of the actual tariff flows through completely.
7:01
Speaker 3: Of course, when it's not just one industry, when you
7:03
Speaker 3: have several industries that's suffering it, then a little bit
7:06
Speaker 3: here and a little bit they're still at it still
7:07
Speaker 3: adds up.
7:08
Speaker 5: Yeahably, you know, this year, of course, earnings estimates have
7:12
Speaker 5: come down for companies we were looking at, you know,
7:16
Speaker 5: mid teens, you know, fourteen to fifteen percent earnings expectations.
7:22
Speaker 5: That's drifted down to about ten percent earnings growth. But
7:25
Speaker 5: that's still ten percent earnings growth. You know, We're earnings
7:29
Speaker 5: are coming in pretty strong across the board, and you know,
7:34
Speaker 5: analysts seem to think that that's going to continue. Analysts
7:38
Speaker 5: can be wrong, but that that is that is where
7:40
Speaker 5: we set right now. And that's kind of putting the UH,
7:45
Speaker 5: I think a floor of some somewhat into the market.
7:48
Speaker 5: You know, most of the time, we don't get these
7:49
Speaker 5: big swoons in the market, you know, actual you know,
7:57
Speaker 5: major declines in the market and companies are making record profits.
8:03
Speaker 5: Normally that doesn't happen. Doesn't mean it can't happen, but
8:05
Speaker 5: it normally doesn't happen that way.
8:07
Speaker 3: And it's it's really pretty when when when you when
8:12
Speaker 3: we start talking about I guess conceptually, UH, there is
8:14
Speaker 3: something I thought would be interesting to talk about, although
8:16
Speaker 3: it doesn't necessarily land into the area of your absolute expertise,
8:21
Speaker 3: but it talks about a lot of the things that's
8:22
Speaker 3: kind of on the outside of these conversations. A lot
8:26
Speaker 3: of people when when the discussion about tars first started
8:30
Speaker 3: taking place, and especially when it comes to China, because
8:32
Speaker 3: I think that was one of the first countries that
8:34
Speaker 3: really started to get abandoned about.
8:35
Speaker 4: About a lot.
8:36
Speaker 3: And people talk about uh, intellectual prop UH, copyright theft
8:40
Speaker 3: and and UH and what types of things, what what
8:43
Speaker 3: exactly that means? And I was kind of curious on that.
8:45
Speaker 3: I started doing a little bit of research. It's like,
8:46
Speaker 3: exactly what do they mean by this? I mean where
8:48
Speaker 3: where is this, Where is this theft taking place? What
8:51
Speaker 3: different scenarios are there. And one of the ones I
8:53
Speaker 3: ran into was a really interesting show that I listened
8:55
Speaker 3: to that detailed the process of a an entrepreneur in
8:59
Speaker 3: the United State was trying to make a barbecue grill scrubber.
9:03
Speaker 3: So all that it was was for your barbecue grill
9:06
Speaker 3: that you grill out on, and it was a scrubber,
9:08
Speaker 3: and you know those things there's among the barbecue community.
9:10
Speaker 3: There's a lot of like, you don't really want the
9:12
Speaker 3: wire brushes because those can come out and anyway, So
9:15
Speaker 3: this guy wanted to create something. He had an idea
9:17
Speaker 3: on how to create a brand new type of scrubber,
9:19
Speaker 3: and he wanted to make it one hundred percent in
9:21
Speaker 3: the United States. Every part he wanted to have made
9:23
Speaker 3: in the United States. He wanted to have the specs
9:25
Speaker 3: made in the United States and everything else. And so
9:27
Speaker 3: the show that I listened to was a story about
9:28
Speaker 3: this guy simply trying to get a barbecue scrubber made
9:31
Speaker 3: in the United States. Almost impossible, sure, almost impossible.
9:35
Speaker 4: He did it.
9:35
Speaker 3: He did it, and the price of the barbecue scrubber
9:37
Speaker 3: and he knows that this is it's like fifty some dollars.
9:41
Speaker 3: There was no way for it to compete with like
9:43
Speaker 3: the ten dollars barbecue scrubbers or whatever else without going
9:46
Speaker 3: to overseas to get it manufacturer, to get the spec
9:49
Speaker 3: made or something else. And the reason they didn't want
9:50
Speaker 3: to do that, And this is where sort of the
9:53
Speaker 3: copyright theft comes into place is what happens. And if
9:55
Speaker 3: you've seen this on Amazon, you know exactly what I'm
9:57
Speaker 3: talking about. A company with an idea will send their
10:00
Speaker 3: product over to China to get it manufactured end mass
10:03
Speaker 3: and they'll do it, and you'll get it back and
10:05
Speaker 3: it will be fine. There's I mean as fine with
10:06
Speaker 3: inspects will allow it's okay. And so you get your
10:09
Speaker 3: product and you're selling it on Walmart, Amazon, whatever it
10:12
Speaker 3: might be. It's a great product. People love it. Suddenly
10:15
Speaker 3: a few weeks later there's tons of that exac same
10:18
Speaker 3: product on Amazon, especially Team wherever else you might find it.
10:22
Speaker 3: That's because our laws here don't carry or at least
10:24
Speaker 3: they're not going to honor them. And so the company
10:27
Speaker 3: that that you sent your widget to to have manufactured
10:30
Speaker 3: gave it a little bit of a pause, and then
10:32
Speaker 3: just started manufacturing your widget themselves.
10:34
Speaker 4: Right. That's not fair man.
10:36
Speaker 5: That that's absolutely happened.
10:39
Speaker 3: And that's I mean, there's many places that this takes place.
10:41
Speaker 3: But imagining yourself as an entrepreneur that has an idea
10:44
Speaker 3: that wants to do something like this and you're basically
10:46
Speaker 3: your your choices are you either farm out the work
10:49
Speaker 3: to another country where eventually your ideal will be stolen
10:52
Speaker 3: if it's a good idea, or you haven't made in
10:54
Speaker 3: the country where it's going to be three times more
10:56
Speaker 3: expensive than the closest competitor.
10:58
Speaker 4: It's an issue. I mean, it is an issue.
11:00
Speaker 5: It is an issue, and it's one that hasn't really
11:03
Speaker 5: been looked at or enforced too much.
11:06
Speaker 6: Uh.
11:07
Speaker 5: And maybe this will you know, a little short term
11:10
Speaker 5: pain might be a long term gain.
11:12
Speaker 4: We'll see.
11:12
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's I don't that's way above my pay grade
11:15
Speaker 3: on that, but I thought it would be it would
11:17
Speaker 3: be whomy to educate myself when people talk about the
11:19
Speaker 3: the the copyright theft and the intellectual theft, exactly what
11:22
Speaker 3: that means. And it's enough when you start reading into it, it
11:25
Speaker 3: will make you a little bit mad when all the
11:26
Speaker 3: things that can happen just like you know, it's like
11:29
Speaker 3: nothing is sacred when it comes to ideas and stuff anymore.
11:31
Speaker 3: And I guess that's just a dog eat dog world
11:33
Speaker 3: bit man.
11:33
Speaker 4: That's not fair. That's not fair. You know.
11:35
Speaker 5: It's interesting if you look at the trading partners, it's
11:37
Speaker 5: it's probably not who most folks expect. I mean, everybody
11:42
Speaker 5: thinks probably China, oh, our main. The EU is our
11:45
Speaker 5: main trading partner, Mexico is second, China is third, then Canada, Japan,
11:56
Speaker 5: and then Vietnam, Vietnam and uh is. Believe it or not,
12:02
Speaker 5: we import about a third of what we do from China,
12:07
Speaker 5: you know, so Vietnam is kind of punching above its
12:11
Speaker 5: way there.
12:12
Speaker 4: That's incredible.
12:13
Speaker 5: I mean, I knew more and more things were coming
12:15
Speaker 5: from Vietnam, but you can see that the supply chains,
12:20
Speaker 5: particularly through COVID and some of those changes. You could
12:26
Speaker 5: kind of see it in the numbers where things are shifting.
12:29
Speaker 3: To in a very not necessarily off topic, but in
12:34
Speaker 3: kind of a galaxy bring kind of way. One of
12:35
Speaker 3: the things that I'm really concerned about with the tariffs
12:38
Speaker 3: isn't necessarily the cost of passing on things, but I
12:41
Speaker 3: read a little bit of research onto what the first
12:43
Speaker 3: round of tariffs did to supply chains, and it was
12:45
Speaker 3: just so happened that first that happened, and then COVID happened,
12:48
Speaker 3: and it actually screwed up some of the supply chains
12:49
Speaker 3: that were legacy supply chains were in place, and that
12:52
Speaker 3: affected us during COVID. I'm really worried about more terriffs,
12:56
Speaker 3: more robusts, more supply chains being disrupted. What if something
13:00
Speaker 3: happens again, right, I'm not, I mean in likelihood hopefully not.
13:04
Speaker 3: But it's just one of those things. We saw it
13:05
Speaker 3: happen once. Let's hope not again. But can bring up
13:08
Speaker 3: an interesting point there. People have like we talk about
13:12
Speaker 3: common sayings and stuff all the time, you know, like
13:14
Speaker 3: in the stock market or anything else that don't necessarily
13:16
Speaker 3: bear fruit. I think that sometimes that we're upside down
13:19
Speaker 3: on understanding exactly who our trade partners are and what
13:22
Speaker 3: it is that's being imported and exported.
13:24
Speaker 5: Yeah, no doubt about it. I mean, you know, things simple,
13:28
Speaker 5: you know, Canada trees. You know, it's not it's not
13:33
Speaker 5: always the electronic gadgets that really make up the bulk
13:37
Speaker 5: of trade. It's it's a lot of auto you know,
13:42
Speaker 5: and there again that's that's the thing with Germany. For instance,
13:46
Speaker 5: Germany is very heavy in auto manufacturing. With these reciprocal tariffs,
13:55
Speaker 5: possibly that might say, hey, if you want to sell
13:58
Speaker 5: your cars, you probably should put a couple of factories
14:00
Speaker 5: over here, diverse fy, you know, diversify your manufacturing so
14:05
Speaker 5: that you're not subject to those tariffs. You know, that
14:08
Speaker 5: is a long term I think probably goal of some
14:14
Speaker 5: of this is to try to bring some of that back. Now,
14:16
Speaker 5: whether that will happen in mass I don't know. But
14:21
Speaker 5: you know, if we've been paying if there have been
14:23
Speaker 5: tariffs on our goods and there haven't been tariffs on
14:28
Speaker 5: the on the goods that that that we've been importing,
14:33
Speaker 5: I mean, that's that is an unfair playing field and
14:37
Speaker 5: it can help explain where our manufacturing went. So so
14:41
Speaker 5: we'll see how it plays out. The problem is, you know,
14:44
Speaker 5: there's going to be some disruption and things like that
14:48
Speaker 5: because it takes time. Even if they say hey, let's
14:51
Speaker 5: build a plan over in you know, West Virginia, what
14:55
Speaker 5: takes time to do that. You know, supply chains don't
14:58
Speaker 5: shift overnight, so that's that's an issue. And of course
15:02
Speaker 5: you still have do we have enough people to do
15:05
Speaker 5: the work here? You know, our own employment rates incredibly
15:08
Speaker 5: low right now. So you know, are we gonna you know,
15:12
Speaker 5: be robots, you know, producing this or what's what's going
15:16
Speaker 5: to happen. So we'll see how it plays out.
15:19
Speaker 3: The emerging future is going to be interesting with the
15:22
Speaker 3: reallocation of the labor force and different things like that.
15:24
Speaker 3: I did a story on Hotline on Friday that had
15:26
Speaker 3: to do with I think five hundred restaurants from Young Brand.
15:29
Speaker 3: So that's like Taco Bell and Pizza Hutt in places
15:31
Speaker 3: like that are running out these AI assistants for ordering
15:35
Speaker 3: at the at the window, and your first blush that
15:39
Speaker 3: this might be that's ridiculous, But frankly, could it get
15:41
Speaker 3: any worse?
15:42
Speaker 4: Yeah?
15:43
Speaker 3: You know, so I mean if it actually gets better,
15:45
Speaker 3: I mean, that's going to cause jobs, but it's going
15:47
Speaker 3: to make for a better end user experience. So you know,
15:50
Speaker 3: I mean, the company would be doing their job. You know.
15:52
Speaker 5: Down down in Florida, I ran through a Checkers restaurant
15:56
Speaker 5: and it was AI order taker. It sounded just like
15:59
Speaker 5: a human even even replied, you know, I almost couldn't
16:04
Speaker 5: tell the difference. I mean, they actually stated as it
16:08
Speaker 5: started that it.
16:09
Speaker 4: Was yeah, right, so just so.
16:11
Speaker 5: That you you knew and and uh and of course
16:14
Speaker 5: I at first I was not real happy about that
16:17
Speaker 5: because this sounds ridiculous. But they had a two cheeseburger
16:23
Speaker 5: combo thing, and I would have one cheeseburger one way
16:26
Speaker 5: and one cheeseburger or the other to perfect.
16:29
Speaker 2: Yeah.
16:30
Speaker 4: See, that's the thing.
16:31
Speaker 3: That's the thing is there's no way that AI can
16:33
Speaker 3: be as good as a fully engaged human in that situation.
16:36
Speaker 4: There's just no way.
16:36
Speaker 3: It's not going to do it what humans fully engaged
16:39
Speaker 3: working a drive through window?
16:40
Speaker 4: Right? None? Zero?
16:41
Speaker 3: Right, that's why your orders are always wrong. If this
16:44
Speaker 3: actually increased it better is the end user experience. I
16:47
Speaker 3: don't care how much you hate AI, you're going to
16:49
Speaker 3: be more likely to go to that restaurant.
16:50
Speaker 5: You are and and and there again. That's going to
16:56
Speaker 5: One camp will say that takes jobs. The other camp
17:00
Speaker 5: says that freeze.
17:01
Speaker 4: Raise up labor. Exactly, yeah, exactly.
17:03
Speaker 3: I mean, wouldn't you rather labor be pointed towards something
17:06
Speaker 3: that's more useful than taking burger orders? I mean, I'm
17:09
Speaker 3: not trying to say that that's a bad job.
17:10
Speaker 4: It's not. But if you didn't have to do it,
17:13
Speaker 4: then you could put that labor towards something else. Isn't
17:15
Speaker 4: that a good thing? Or can it be? It might
17:17
Speaker 4: take some time, but I see where it comes.
17:20
Speaker 5: Sounds generally, you know how like you say, how wealth
17:23
Speaker 5: is created, you move up the food chain, so to speak,
17:27
Speaker 5: to utilize your skills and higher places.
17:32
Speaker 3: It seems like it's it's gonna be interesting. It's gonna
17:34
Speaker 3: be interesting to see what happens to our labor force. See,
17:36
Speaker 3: let's do this, let's kind and take a break. You're
17:37
Speaker 3: welcome to weigh in on the conversation this morning if
17:39
Speaker 3: you have any thoughts, if you want to weigh in
17:41
Speaker 3: one of the topics that we're talking about, but especially
17:43
Speaker 3: if you want to deal with your retirement, any questions
17:45
Speaker 3: that you have on how you can retire right or
17:47
Speaker 3: maybe that of a loved winning. You can give us
17:48
Speaker 3: a call this morning three zero four three four two
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Speaker 3: eight one three one three zero four three four two
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Speaker 3: eight one three one to talk to John Bredebt for
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Speaker 3: fourth Avenue.
17:55
Speaker 4: Financially.
17:55
Speaker 3: You can also text over any questions you have if
17:57
Speaker 3: you don't have time to give us a call or
17:58
Speaker 3: want to keep things a little bit more nonymous.
18:00
Speaker 4: You're welcome to do that.
18:01
Speaker 3: At three zero four nine, three five five zero zero
18:03
Speaker 3: eight three zero four nine, three five five zero zero eight,
18:05
Speaker 3: We'll take a break, give me a backer after this.
18:07
Speaker 3: You're listening to retire Right Radio with John Bredett f
18:09
Speaker 3: for Fourth Avenue Financial.
18:10
Speaker 4: I'mdale Cooper on WCHS, the Voice of Charleston.
18:13
Speaker 3: Retire Right Radio was sponsored by Fourth Avenue Financial, which
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18:35
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18:38
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18:42
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18:46
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Speaker 3: listener should seek advice from their tax advisor or legal
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18:54
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18:56
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Speaker 8: This is Retire Right Bradio with John Burdett from Fourth
20:08
Speaker 8: Avenue Financial, taking your calls at three oh four three
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Speaker 8: four five fifty eight fifty eight or text on three
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20:21
Speaker 3: You're listening to We're Sorry Right Radio Bob ADWCHS Voice
20:25
Speaker 3: of Charleston. I'm Del Cooper. Thanks so much for tuning
20:28
Speaker 3: in on this this Monday morning. It's a pretty nice Monday,
20:31
Speaker 3: a little bit, a little bit moist outside, a little
20:34
Speaker 3: wet around the edges, but not too bad. I have
20:36
Speaker 3: thunderstorms and rain overnight, but this kind of a nice
20:40
Speaker 3: spring morning so far this morning. As you're coming into work,
20:43
Speaker 3: no major accidents according to Chapel on the roadways, you
20:45
Speaker 3: still want to be careful as you're heading into work
20:47
Speaker 3: to start off your week. John Burdad is here from
20:49
Speaker 3: Fourth Avenue Financial, and we were talking about all things retirement.
20:53
Speaker 3: If you want to weigh in on the conversation this
20:54
Speaker 3: morning and point the direction on something that might help
20:56
Speaker 3: you out more welcome to do that. At three zero
20:58
Speaker 3: four three four two eight one three one three are
21:00
Speaker 3: four three four two eight one three one. You can
21:02
Speaker 3: text over any questions you have to three zero four
21:03
Speaker 3: non three five five zero zero eight three zero four
21:06
Speaker 3: non three five five zero zero eight And we're you know,
21:09
Speaker 3: we we kind of went uh all over the place
21:11
Speaker 3: a little bit in the first segment here, but it's
21:13
Speaker 3: because there's there's there's almost because of where the terrorists
21:18
Speaker 3: are setting At least my impression on this is because
21:20
Speaker 3: of where the terrorists are settling. Things that are going on.
21:23
Speaker 3: What inflation numbers I think came in a little hotter
21:25
Speaker 3: again than what was expected in some it seems like
21:27
Speaker 3: that we're back to there's a little bit of a
21:29
Speaker 3: collective breath holding a little.
21:31
Speaker 5: Bit, yes, And what I think is important to remember
21:35
Speaker 5: that when anxiety is the highest, that's usually when things
21:42
Speaker 5: turn around. Yeah, right, you know, if everybody is afraid,
21:46
Speaker 5: if everybody is cautious, it doesn't take very much to
21:50
Speaker 5: move it in the other direction. And that doesn't mean,
21:53
Speaker 5: the market's finished going down. I don't know what the
21:56
Speaker 5: market's going to do, but usually when the fear gets high,
22:01
Speaker 5: when anxiety is ruling the day, it's usually close to
22:05
Speaker 5: a turning point.
22:07
Speaker 3: What's really wild And again this kind of goes back
22:09
Speaker 3: to the sentiment and everything as well. I was reading
22:11
Speaker 3: this was some time ago, but it was a study
22:13
Speaker 3: on how how like the influence of crowds and sentiment
22:18
Speaker 3: and things like that works. And it's really crazy that
22:20
Speaker 3: the science of tipping points is really crazy because a
22:23
Speaker 3: tipping point is not like it's fifty to fifty and
22:25
Speaker 3: then as soon as the fifty first percent gets on
22:27
Speaker 3: the other side of the teeter totter, that's your tipping point.
22:29
Speaker 3: The tipping points more like twenty three or twenty four percent.
22:32
Speaker 3: It's like a really low number that you can get
22:35
Speaker 3: sentiment to go one way and it drives the sentiment
22:38
Speaker 3: for the rest of the seventy some percent. It's really
22:40
Speaker 3: incredible the way that psychology works with tipping I mean.
22:42
Speaker 5: Just look at the American Revolution. Yeah, oh, I mean
22:45
Speaker 5: there were a very few actual revolutionaries, but there were enough.
22:51
Speaker 4: Man.
22:51
Speaker 3: I don't want to get into this on the air,
22:53
Speaker 3: but I read a I don't know how to call
22:58
Speaker 3: it an unfiltered retelling of the American Revolution and some
23:03
Speaker 3: of the things that are actually going on that that
23:06
Speaker 3: started it. Yeah, man, there our schools don't really carry
23:10
Speaker 3: the bill when it comes to the revolution all that much.
23:12
Speaker 3: I understand why to some degree. But there's a lot
23:14
Speaker 3: of stuff that was going on there that actually is
23:17
Speaker 3: very fascinating if you would actually teach it and not
23:20
Speaker 3: use the broad heroic growth strucks. You know, there's a
23:23
Speaker 3: lot of stuff going on there with like Sam Adams
23:25
Speaker 3: and stuff like that. I mean, there's a you.
23:27
Speaker 5: Know, I like the Nate Bargatzi version of it myself.
23:31
Speaker 4: Right, right, exactly right.
23:32
Speaker 3: I mean, it's it's an interesting thing that anyway, that's uh,
23:36
Speaker 3: there's a lot that's reflective in today. Honestly, if you
23:39
Speaker 3: would look at some of the things that were going
23:41
Speaker 3: on in the way sentiment was trying to be changed
23:43
Speaker 3: back then there's a there's a little bit of parallel honestly.
23:46
Speaker 5: Well that there again that goes back to all the
23:49
Speaker 5: different moving parts that are happening, and they're interrelated, and
23:52
Speaker 5: one thing little happens over here and it's not the headline,
23:55
Speaker 5: but those are the things that actually sometimes matter. Uh,
24:00
Speaker 5: you'll see that. Like we say, when when one cag
24:04
Speaker 5: turns over here, it makes the other gear turn over here.
24:07
Speaker 5: And you know, people react to things in unknowable ways.
24:11
Speaker 5: And but rest assured, because we all wake up every
24:15
Speaker 5: morning and want a better love for ourselves and our families,
24:19
Speaker 5: we're all going to try to do our best to
24:22
Speaker 5: take action around those things that improve us. And collectively,
24:27
Speaker 5: that's generally what has happened in a free market. That's
24:31
Speaker 5: what happens. People pursue their own interest and and it
24:36
Speaker 5: propels everyone forward.
24:37
Speaker 3: And in a case like this, you know, it's a
24:39
Speaker 3: little bit interesting right now because we're talking about tariffs,
24:41
Speaker 3: which tarifs are nothing new, but they're sort of new
24:45
Speaker 3: in the sort of the globalists economy that we have now.
24:50
Speaker 3: So that's the one thing that we have, you know,
24:53
Speaker 3: just just unlimited data when it comes to the market
24:55
Speaker 3: and influence of the market and stuff like that. However,
24:58
Speaker 3: this is a little bit of a new situation because
25:00
Speaker 3: we're talking about an old concept when it comes to tariffs,
25:03
Speaker 3: but one that hasn't really been applied to the globalization
25:06
Speaker 3: of the economy. So that's to me at least from
25:09
Speaker 3: an academic standpoint, kind of interesting of the whole thing.
25:11
Speaker 3: Exactly what's the difference one between tariffs of then in
25:15
Speaker 3: tarifts and what it means now in a global economy?
25:17
Speaker 5: Yeah, I don't know. You know, if you look at
25:19
Speaker 5: the tariff rate right now, that it's about two and
25:25
Speaker 5: a half percent, and if we look at the reciprocal rate,
25:28
Speaker 5: if we were going to do one hundred percent reciprocal
25:32
Speaker 5: tariffs on other countries, it would be sixteen point two percent.
25:35
Speaker 5: So you're talking about thirteen and a half predig act
25:39
Speaker 5: to which means you know, yes, would that mean we're
25:43
Speaker 5: raising tariffs thirteen and a half percent to equalize that?
25:48
Speaker 4: Yes?
25:48
Speaker 5: But the converse argument there is other countries have been
25:52
Speaker 5: doing that to.
25:53
Speaker 4: Us, right, right?
25:55
Speaker 5: So is that fair trade? You know, it's kind of
25:59
Speaker 5: above you know my opinion.
26:00
Speaker 3: I mean, right, all of this is getting very you know,
26:03
Speaker 3: Dave calling his accountant to come solve the crisis from right.
26:06
Speaker 5: But but you know, it didn't destroy things when they
26:09
Speaker 5: tariff us right now?
26:12
Speaker 4: Could it?
26:13
Speaker 5: Could it go wild if everybody starts slapping tariffs here
26:17
Speaker 5: or there and you don't know where they're coming from. Yeah,
26:19
Speaker 5: that's going to be disruptive. Will that happen? I don't know.
26:22
Speaker 5: I don't know how these countries will respond. I do
26:25
Speaker 5: know this as a record importer of goods, I would
26:33
Speaker 5: think the United States has the high card in in
26:37
Speaker 5: in the match because we're the We're the consumer. They
26:41
Speaker 5: want to sell their products to us. You know, our
26:44
Speaker 5: our UH exports are relatively minor compared to what we import,
26:51
Speaker 5: so you know that that is one argument to say
26:55
Speaker 5: that that we will won't. We won't come out unscathed
27:02
Speaker 5: in that type of battle, but we will probably come
27:05
Speaker 5: out better than most countries.
27:07
Speaker 2: Will.
27:07
Speaker 3: We do have a question that's come along on the
27:09
Speaker 3: text line from the three zero four five four one John.
27:11
Speaker 3: I'm heavily into tech, which means I've been hit very
27:13
Speaker 3: hard recently. What I don't understand is why would a
27:16
Speaker 3: good company that's already been beat down be sold off
27:19
Speaker 3: further because of market conditions.
27:21
Speaker 4: I don't know which particular company is talking about there,
27:23
Speaker 4: but well.
27:23
Speaker 5: A lot of them. I mean I I have a
27:26
Speaker 5: couple that I've owned forever, close to forever that have
27:30
Speaker 5: that have done very well. Now now this year they're not.
27:35
Speaker 5: You know, it's herd mentality. Essentially trying to find what
27:39
Speaker 5: the what the fair price is of of these companies
27:42
Speaker 5: and how dependable their earning streams are. You know, everything
27:46
Speaker 5: ultimately is based on earnings. If a company continues to
27:50
Speaker 5: grow their earnings, the stock price at any one given
27:55
Speaker 5: time is almost irrelevant to that fact unless you need
28:00
Speaker 5: the money at that point in time. You know, if
28:03
Speaker 5: you own a company earning billions and billions of dollars
28:07
Speaker 5: and and it continues to do that and you own
28:11
Speaker 5: part of that company, if you're a patient, it's very good,
28:16
Speaker 5: very good, uh uh chance that that will that will
28:21
Speaker 5: pay off for you, because that money has to go
28:23
Speaker 5: somewhere and are generally going to go to the owners
28:25
Speaker 5: in some fashion, whether that be through dividends or or
28:29
Speaker 5: stock buybacks, you know, or a company growth through through
28:33
Speaker 5: reinvesting those earnings back into the company, like you're seeing
28:36
Speaker 5: so much with these tech companies right now investing in AI.
28:40
Speaker 5: You know, Microsoft is earning billions and billions of dollars,
28:44
Speaker 5: but they're also investing billions and billions of dollars into
28:47
Speaker 5: these things that that they hope will further grow their earnings.
28:53
Speaker 5: And if they're wrong, you know, that's not necessarily good.
28:58
Speaker 5: That they could be wrong, but the core business is
29:01
Speaker 5: still earning billions and millions of dollars.
29:02
Speaker 3: We've seen that famously with companies in the past. We
29:05
Speaker 3: talked I think last week maybe about meta and the metaverse,
29:08
Speaker 3: you know, I mean, that's a that's a moonshot they've
29:10
Speaker 3: been taken, because when you reach a certain pedestal, you
29:12
Speaker 3: got to take moonshots to get it higher, you know,
29:14
Speaker 3: And the metaverse is kind of a moonshot.
29:17
Speaker 5: You know, as an investor, when you're looking at that, well,
29:20
Speaker 5: my stock's down, how much further can it go down?
29:24
Speaker 5: The market can be very irrational sometimes. The key to
29:30
Speaker 5: owning individual stocks is understanding really what you do own,
29:34
Speaker 5: What is that company doing, what are their prospects for growth?
29:38
Speaker 5: And are you comfortable with that story? And if you are,
29:43
Speaker 5: the stock prices should be it should be irrelevant to you. You
29:46
Speaker 5: don't like it when when it goes down, But if
29:48
Speaker 5: you own a quality asset and you're comfortable with the story,
29:52
Speaker 5: then why would you sell it? And we go back
29:55
Speaker 5: to that the deal like I talk about with the
29:58
Speaker 5: real estate, if you own a house up and buy
30:00
Speaker 5: for one hundred thousand, rent it for one thousand dollars
30:02
Speaker 5: a month. If somebody knocks on the door next month
30:04
Speaker 5: and says I'll give you eighty thousand, you wouldn't panic.
30:07
Speaker 5: You tell them to hit the road, right, Yeah, right,
30:10
Speaker 5: you know, because next month, you know the rent's coming in.
30:13
Speaker 4: That's a good points and over.
30:15
Speaker 5: Time, and over time, the rent probably goes from one
30:18
Speaker 5: thousand to eleven hundred to twelve hundred. Just like company
30:21
Speaker 5: earnings tend to grow and that should press the stock
30:27
Speaker 5: price is higher if the earnings continue to grow. So
30:30
Speaker 5: so some of it is, you know, I don't know
30:32
Speaker 5: what the market's going to do from day to day.
30:33
Speaker 4: Nobody does.
30:35
Speaker 5: But if I understand my company, if I understand the
30:38
Speaker 5: earnings of that company and their prospects, and I'm comfortable
30:41
Speaker 5: with that, you know, could that mean you could still
30:44
Speaker 5: be wrong with some of those those expetits.
30:46
Speaker 4: Sure you could.
30:48
Speaker 5: But if you still believe it, why would you panic?
30:51
Speaker 5: Why would you sell the stock? You know at that
30:54
Speaker 5: point point, at that point you're looking at it as hey,
30:58
Speaker 5: this is a great company and it keeps going down.
31:01
Speaker 5: You know, maybe I should buy more.
31:03
Speaker 4: Yeah, maybe I shouldn't jump off the bridge with everybody else.
31:05
Speaker 5: Maybe I should maybe I should be the one taking
31:08
Speaker 5: the shares in while everybody else panics. But you have
31:12
Speaker 5: to be confident in the company you own. If you've
31:15
Speaker 5: done your homework and you're patient, that should pay off
31:20
Speaker 5: if you if you're correct. What happens in the strong
31:23
Speaker 5: market day to day is really just very loosely tied
31:28
Speaker 5: to what's actually going on in the companies from day
31:30
Speaker 5: to day.
31:31
Speaker 3: It's very interesting if there's been a lot of companies
31:34
Speaker 3: that you could kind of track this with even a
31:36
Speaker 3: layperson from the outside. I think we mentioned a lot
31:38
Speaker 3: of times on this program. We've talked about general electrics
31:41
Speaker 3: and how it's changed over time, you know, And another
31:43
Speaker 3: one that I think is actually maybe more prominent, especially
31:46
Speaker 3: relating to this text question with God. When you look
31:48
Speaker 3: at Google. You know, one time Google was a was
31:50
Speaker 3: a product company. You know, it's a data company. Now
31:53
Speaker 3: it's not a product company anymore. So you might use
31:55
Speaker 3: their products, but that's just so they can get your data.
31:58
Speaker 3: But regardless of what you think about that, they found
32:00
Speaker 3: that that was their model that they were going to find.
32:03
Speaker 3: You know, they thought at one time that they could
32:04
Speaker 3: be a social media company, that they could make all
32:06
Speaker 3: these different products. They had news readers, you know, they
32:09
Speaker 3: had all these different products that they had out there
32:11
Speaker 3: that they wanted people just to get into their environment
32:13
Speaker 3: and provide these products. What it ended up being is
32:15
Speaker 3: they found out that the thing that was most valuable
32:17
Speaker 3: to them was just data. All they wanted to do
32:18
Speaker 3: was get as much data one as they possibly could get.
32:21
Speaker 3: You launched the phones that have that integrate perfectly with Google.
32:26
Speaker 3: Suddenly they don't need to get you in with social
32:28
Speaker 3: media stuff and stuff like that. You just give them
32:30
Speaker 3: all their data, all your data on your phone. Regardless
32:32
Speaker 3: of what you think about that, Google found a way
32:34
Speaker 3: to monetize that. They're no longer trying to sell you products.
32:36
Speaker 3: Google's not a product company. They're a data company, and
32:39
Speaker 3: it's transferred over time. But if you've invested in Google
32:42
Speaker 3: from the very beginning and you trusted the company and
32:45
Speaker 3: what they were doing and following along, you've come out okay.
32:47
Speaker 3: Although they're no longer the product company that they once was,
32:50
Speaker 3: they once were.
32:50
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah there again, it's a dynamic company. And if
32:54
Speaker 5: you are comfortable with what the management is doing, if
32:57
Speaker 5: you know your company that you individually owed you know,
33:00
Speaker 5: you should never buy or sell a stock based on
33:02
Speaker 5: what the stock price is. The stock prices are relevant,
33:05
Speaker 5: it's is the stock price fair with what I believe
33:08
Speaker 5: is happening at the company, and am I paying a
33:11
Speaker 5: fair price for it? You know, you can look at
33:14
Speaker 5: a stock price and say, well, it's one hundred dollars
33:16
Speaker 5: a share. Now it's five hundred dollars a share. It's
33:18
Speaker 5: too high, Well, it says who you know? Or it
33:23
Speaker 5: went back down to two hundred dollars to share. It's
33:25
Speaker 5: too low, says who you know? What is happening in
33:29
Speaker 5: that company? That's the only thing that really matters if
33:31
Speaker 5: you're investing. Now, if you're trading, then all bets are off.
33:36
Speaker 5: You know, then you're you're in that emotional roller coaster
33:39
Speaker 5: zone that that that's a space that I don't play
33:42
Speaker 5: in now a lot of people do, but that is
33:46
Speaker 5: a whole different ballgame.
33:47
Speaker 3: Jobberdet with Fourth Avenue Financial, kind of wrapping up the
33:50
Speaker 3: last couple of minutes of the program, you could probably
33:52
Speaker 3: squeeze in a text question three zero four non three
33:54
Speaker 3: five five zeros or eight threes or four non three
33:56
Speaker 3: five five zeros or eight. If you're up in call,
33:58
Speaker 3: you might be able to get in before we leave
33:59
Speaker 3: the airways. Three zero fourth three four two eight one
34:01
Speaker 3: three one. Fourth Avenue Financial, though you can find them
34:03
Speaker 3: online it's fourth Avenue Financial dot com. Fourth Avenue Financial
34:06
Speaker 3: dot com. You can also do that same search on
34:09
Speaker 3: Facebook and like the page over there. Fourth Avenue Financial
34:11
Speaker 3: is located at one seventy Court Street in downtown Charleston.
34:15
Speaker 3: And we talk about these things all the time. And
34:17
Speaker 3: of course you've been on the air waves here for
34:19
Speaker 3: years now. But if some again, if someone is hasn't started,
34:24
Speaker 3: or maybe they've they started their retirement plan, but they
34:26
Speaker 3: just set it and forget it. They have their four
34:28
Speaker 3: to one k nothing else. They don't know what else
34:30
Speaker 3: they can do. Now's a great time to pick up
34:33
Speaker 3: the phone. You can call Fourth Avenue Financial. What can
34:35
Speaker 3: you do to power your retirement? Because if you're just
34:37
Speaker 3: putting your match into your four one k, thank you,
34:40
Speaker 3: you're doing something, but you could probably do more, and
34:42
Speaker 3: it's worthwhile to give somebody that's a professional call.
34:44
Speaker 5: Yeah, no doubt about it. If the rules are always changing,
34:46
Speaker 5: the limits are always changing, and certainly as we know
34:50
Speaker 5: the market is always changing. So it's a great time
34:53
Speaker 5: to come on in, give us a call and we'll
34:56
Speaker 5: sit down a chat and figure out the path that
34:59
Speaker 5: you you need to be on to achieve the goals
35:02
Speaker 5: that you.
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Speaker 4: Have for yourself.
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Speaker 3: That's John Bredet with Fourth Avenue Financial every Monday morning
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Speaker 3: at eight twenty right here on five ADWCCHS. You can
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Speaker 3: find this podcast WCHS network dot com slash retire right
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Speaker 3: and you can find all the archives of this program,
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Speaker 3: including this one. We'll be up within about an hour
35:16
Speaker 3: or two after the show goes off the air. Thank
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Speaker 3: you so much for tuning in today though we had
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Speaker 3: a great conversation with John Bredet for Fourth Avenue Financial.
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Speaker 3: You can tune back in next Monday at eight twenty
35:24
Speaker 3: for more conversation about the market and how you can
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Speaker 3: retire right into your future. Fourth Avenue Financial, Fourth Avenue
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Speaker 3: Financial dot Com on Facebook. Fourth Avenue Financial phone number
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Speaker 3: three zero four seven four six seven done seven seven
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Speaker 3: three zero four seven four six seven non seven seven
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Speaker 3: one line, Fourth Avenue Financial dot Com. One seventy Court Street,
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Speaker 3: Downtown Charleston, across from the Town Center Mall. John, Thank
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Speaker 3: you so much for tim appreciate it again this week.
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Speaker 5: All right, Thank you, take care.
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Speaker 3: We'll see you next week. That's John Bredet with Fourth
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Speaker 3: Avenue Financial. Thank you so much everyone for tuning in.
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Speaker 3: I'm Del Cooper. You're listening to five EDWCHS, The Voice
35:53
Speaker 3: of Charleston.
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