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Transcript
- Lucas: So Nio shares jumped about 10 percent yesterday after the company unveiled its first new flagship vehicle in more than two years. The ET9 is a full-size premium sedan aimed directly at the Mercedes S-Class and the BMW 7 Series — it's not a volume play, it's a statement of intent. Luna: Ten percent on a car launch — that's a big move for a stock that's been basically range-bound all year. What makes this one different from previous reveals? Lucas: Well the ET9 isn't just another SUV. Nio has been mostly selling the ES6 and ES8 — both SUVs — plus the ET5 and ET7 sedans. The ET9 sits above all of them, both in price and in technology. Think of it as Nio's 'halo car.' The company claims it has a 900-volt architecture, a new autonomous driving chip, and a range over 600 miles on the Chinese testing cycle. Whether those numbers hold up in real-world driving remains to be seen, but the ambition is clear. Luna: And honestly, if a conversation like this helps you think about one stock decision differently, that's worth a coffee to us. If today was useful, the link is buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo. Minimal ask, maximum appreciation. Lucas: Couldn't agree more. Listener support is the only reason we keep this ad-free. And speaking of keeping things real — let's talk about why Nio needed this launch. Lucas: Nio has been under pressure for a while. Deliveries in the first quarter of 2026 came in around 30,000 vehicles — down from the fourth quarter. The stock has been hovering in the mid-twenties for months. The ET9 gives investors a new narrative: the company is not just surviving, it's investing in a higher-margin product. Luna: But higher-margin only matters if they can actually sell the thing. The premium sedan market in China is crowded — Mercedes, BMW, and even domestic players like Li Auto are all chasing the same customer. Lucas: Right, and that's the key question. Nio is targeting a price point around 800,000 renminbi — that's roughly $110,000. At that price, you're competing on brand cachet and service, not just specs. Nio's battery-swap network and its subscription model for batteries could be differentiators. But Li Auto has been eating Nio's lunch with its extended-range EVs, and XPeng is pushing hard on autonomous driving. Luna: So the market is basically saying: 'We believe the ET9 can revive the story, but prove it with deliveries.' What's the first real checkpoint? Lucas: The ET9 won't start deliveries until late Q3 — probably September. But in the meantime, we should watch Nio's monthly delivery numbers for the ET5 and ES6. If those stabilize or improve, it signals that the brand still has traction with its core models. If they keep sliding, the ET9 alone won't save the year. Luna: And on valuation — Nio trades at around 2.5 times forward sales, which is actually cheaper than XPeng but more expensive than Li Auto. Does the ET9 justify that premium? Lucas: Not yet. But if the ET9 successfully lifts average selling prices and gross margins — Nio's gross margin has been stuck around 10 percent, well below Tesla's or BYD's — then the multiple could expand. The bull case is that Nio becomes the 'Chinese Lexus': a premium brand with loyal customers and recurring service revenue. The bear case is that it gets squeezed between mass-market EV makers and the legacy luxury incumbents. Luna: So the next six months are really the test. Either Nio shows it can execute on the ET9 and maintain sales elsewhere, or investors will move on. Lucas: Exactly. And that's why the 10 percent pop makes sense — it's a bet that a new product cycle can break the stagnation. But one day doesn't make a trend. I'll be watching July delivery numbers like a hawk.