Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Calm Before Rally in 10 Days?🔥Crypto Market Update🚨

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Calm Before Rally in 10 Days?🔥Crypto Market Update🚨 · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Is it the calumn before the storm? Today will break
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: it down for you. Maybe there is a spring rally brewing.
• 0:05
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• 0:31
  Speaker 1: does help us. All right, let's go over to a
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: couple of points I want to lead off with. Of course,
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: over the weekend, Trump continues his rhetoric, pushing very hard
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: on truth social as you can see, threatening power plant day,
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: bridge day, etc. The market was not happy with it.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: Over the weekend we continue to see a lot of pushback,
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: but at the same time we've started to see a
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: little bit of reprieve maybe coming out in the first
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: of the week. We'll see how it plays out. I
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: put up trumple and This was really just asking how
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: has he done so far? Just performance in general, and
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: you could kind of dissect this as to what you
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: think is great or what you think is poor. But
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: right now we're setting about a fifty to fifty split
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: with the not good and poor slightly on the ads
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: here right now. This is somewhat aligned with what we've
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: seen in some of the polling on polymarket as well,
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: and I'll show you that in a second. I want
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: to go to a clip real quick because this will
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: get into Trump talking about what's happening in Iran. Take
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: a look.
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: But even injured, it's amazing.
• 1:33
  Speaker 3: It never happens when privates go down.
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: You wore and you're in tough territory Vietnam and places
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: like Iran, you're tough out of a fight. They're a
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: nasty very rarely do you go in because you're going
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: to send two hundred people into the mission and that
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: mission will likely be.
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: Unsuccessful and you're going to get one person and you're
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: going to lose two hundred people.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: All right, So he kind of referenced a little bit
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: of comparison there to the the Vietnam conflict, and if
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: you look at just some of the things that happened then,
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: and we put in i would say immense resources in
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: the Vietnam including three military persons three million military personnel
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: suffering almost fifty eight almost sixty thousand dead. You look
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: at that, and then you also look at how it
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: kind of compares to what's going on in Iran right now.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: And this is one of those countries that looks and
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: feels like they're over stacked in terms of just what's
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: happening with the US from a military power side. This
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: is where it gets a little bit scary, because this
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: is exactly kind of what's brewing here with what's going
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: on in Iran. If you look at the current situation
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: right now. This comes from Kobec, the US and Iran,
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: a group of regional mediators are also trying to discuss
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: this ceasefire. Iran is pushing back on this, mainly in
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: the sense of that they don't necessarily want to cease fire. However,
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: this is the Iranian outline of what they're looking for
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: for the ceasefire, and of course the biggest one is
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: the End to Regional Conflicts Protocol was safe passage through
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: the Strait, lifting sanctions and then moving into a reconstruction commitments,
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: and I think this is going to be the scenario
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: where Trump probably gets into a no go but who knows,
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: there could still be a way out for him. The
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: real question, I think is how does it get done.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: If you look at his historical narratives that have gone
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: around some of the things that have been going on
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: this year, over the last year, you could kind of
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: compare this a little bit to what was happening with tariffs,
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: and a deal has been the outcome of one hundred
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: percent of his conflicts in his second term. However, the
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: original time for two to four clearly proven incorrect, and
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: now they believe that it comes down to one key factor,
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: and this war is not unilateral like what Trump's trade
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: war and tariffs have been, So that's been factor here.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: One that of course changes the dynamic of the trade
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: and the TACOL model that Kobees has kind of outlined
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: for some time. So we'll see if this changes anything
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: in terms of any kind of negotiation. And all of
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: this is really affecting the market in general, and how
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: this plays into does the market start to correct, because
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: here's bitcoin cruising it close to seventy thousand ethereum is
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: up as well. All of this, though, can easily come
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: back down if we continue to see more pain. All right, guys,
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: there is some breaking news coming out of Trump's speech today,
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: and these were some of the takeaways that really got
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: pulled into this. One of course, is this is the
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: Israelis urging Trump on a Sunday call not to pursue
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: a ceasefire with Iran. Paraxios. Then of course you have
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: hexasts saying that this is going to continue to be
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: one of the hardest hitting days in Iran. Be ready.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: Then the last point right here even goes down into
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: where Trump says, the Iranians have told the US to
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: keep bombing, So do they sense something here? This is
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: getting to where nothing is going to win, at least
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: in stopping this war. I think the key here in
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: the markets is how are they going to respond? Being
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: the markets going forward? Other things you've got to concern
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: about right now, And I think the biggest is where
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: are the risk Well Tom Lee goes in breaks it
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: down a little bit. Listen to this clip.
• 5:13
  Speaker 4: As bad as March was, we've probably seen a big
• 5:17
  Speaker 4: part of that adjustment, and now I think the risk
• 5:20
  Speaker 4: reward is quite good for stocks ninety five percent of
• 5:25
  Speaker 4: the weaknesses behind us in your view, yes, And I
• 5:30
  Speaker 4: think people are kind of torn because if someone's sold
• 5:33
  Speaker 4: in March and the market, they may have sold three
• 5:37
  Speaker 4: or four percent off the highs and we're just five
• 5:39
  Speaker 4: percent off the highs, they've got a dilemma because the
• 5:44
  Speaker 4: market's only a little bit lower than where they might
• 5:46
  Speaker 4: have sold. But it wouldn't take a lot for the
• 5:48
  Speaker 4: markets to begin to recover. So I do think investors
• 5:51
  Speaker 4: who've gone to cash really have to start to think
• 5:54
  Speaker 4: about how war as much as it's a crisis. Focus
• 6:00
  Speaker 4: on the negatives initially, but then they need to start
• 6:03
  Speaker 4: thinking about the opportunity after energy stocks, which have done
• 6:06
  Speaker 4: well since the war started. The second best performing asset
• 6:10
  Speaker 4: is Ethereum and the third best ist bitcoint they've both
• 6:13
  Speaker 4: been up on an absolute basis and beating the equity market.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: Really, what he's getting at is this is going to
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: take a little bit of time, and that's the point.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: I think this week is the pause week on the markets.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: Do we get a little bit of a move, some
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: retlacement back. I think next week a lot of critical
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: things could happen. One we could be much further into
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: at least a ceasefire, if not a ending of the war,
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: I hope, And also we get back into clarity discussions
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: which come back after the break. If you look at
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: Ethereum right now, which is this right now, is on
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: just the four hour chart, this has been up considerably,
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: which was around two thousand dollars happening on Sunday, it
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: has spiked now up to what as of today twenty
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: one to fifty. So that's a big factor going forward,
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: is that where it stops her do we continue to
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: see eight kind of head up look at the transactions
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: that bitmin has done here recently, they continue to accelerate
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: the acquisition of Ethereum. So it started in the fifties
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: back here in February, then it rolls into the sixties
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: and then here you see the March purchases, even the
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: last day of March at seventy one thousand in eighth.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: Now here we go in early April another seventy one thousand,
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: So my number has been one hundred thousand eighth. That
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: tells me that Bitmin and Tom Lee think that that
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: is the bottom, and I think that will be the
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: signifier that goes forward. So those are the things we're
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: watching right now. The other thing that plays into this
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: is tax Day. Here is Matt Hogan talking about that.
• 7:41
  Speaker 5: Take a look.
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: I said that I thought crypto would trade sort of
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: broadly down in sideways until April fifteenth, after which we
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: would start the rally that pushes us into crypto spring
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: into new all time highs. April fifteenth is a magic
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: day here in the US. It's Tax Day. It's the
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: day where everyone who delayed filing their taxes has to
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: send in their forms and their check to the IRS.
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: My experience historically, I haven't looked at the data, so
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: this is pure anecdote. Just came up in our conversation,
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: But my experience historically is that crypto is often weak
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: heading into tax Day and then starts to rally right
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: around them.
• 8:19
  Speaker 5: The reason is.
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: That people like Ryan who cashed in on profits in
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: twenty twenty five potentially now have to pay their gains.
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: They sell some crypto to do so that's put pressure.
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: But once we're on tax Freedom Day and we're on
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: the other side of April fifteenth, I'm feeling pretty bullish.
• 8:39
  Speaker 5: All right.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: So you've got bullish statements there from Hogan. Bullish statements
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: coming in from Tom Lee. Granted, all this is still
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: centered around Iran and what that means, but the other
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: factors that play into this is just some of the
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: market structure that could be lining up as well. Gareth
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: Soloway hits on this timing is also brewing after tax day.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: Take a look what he had to say.
• 9:01
  Speaker 5: The high pivot right up here from January and we
• 9:05
  Speaker 5: draw a discending trend line down. There's a very clear
• 9:09
  Speaker 5: trend line that again will tell us a lot of information.
• 9:14
  Speaker 5: The wedge pattern is going to come to a head
• 9:17
  Speaker 5: on the eleventh day, and ultimately price is going to
• 9:21
  Speaker 5: be forced to either break out or break down, and
• 9:24
  Speaker 5: that basically puts us around April fifteenth, which is kind
• 9:27
  Speaker 5: of interesting because that's right around tax day. Right.
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: If we can break to the upside and we confirm
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: we should be at least seeing an eighteen percent, maybe
• 9:35
  Speaker 3: as much as a twenty five percent gain in bitcoin,
• 9:38
  Speaker 3: you can get about fifteen to sixteen percent downside on
• 9:42
  Speaker 3: a short.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: Okay, so there you have it. Short possibility on upside
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: here for bitcoin. Everything is bringing into this next ten days.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: This is going to get very interesting because of all
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: the macro side of it as well as the timing
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: and the markets, and then also just the big announcements.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: You look at the amount of money that is on
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: the sidelines right now, eight point two trillion now setting
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: in money market funds. This is another global breaking narrative
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: that of course continues to push more cash into a
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: position of setting on the sidelines. Let me know what
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: you guys think. Are you playing it safe right now?
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: Are you setting in gold? Are you set in bitcoin?
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: Are you putting in stable coins? Where are you playing
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: the markets right now? And are you ready for a
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: possible move going forward? Speaking of clarity, because I think
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: that's going to be the next big issue. There's a
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: lot of stakeholders right now very mum on the yield details.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: All of this has been brewing while Congress has been off.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: And one of the things they outlined here was according
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: to industry sources who spoke with Crypto in America condition
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: of anonymity because they're not authorized to comment from both
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: crypto and one from banking, So that must be coinbas
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: and probably JP Morgan. Stakeholders reviewed the latest compromised language Thursday.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: Neither would discuss details, but said they were hopeful working
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: a solution had been each at this time, so maybe
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: there is some news coming into this. And of course,
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: if you look at the clarity possibility of going through
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: right here on polymarket, it has been somewhat sideways, but
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: it is still hovering around sixty percent, so keep an
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: eye on that. Last up, of course, is where Congress is.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: This is timing, so let's go in here to April.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: These yellow parts are when Congress is back in session,
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: and you can kind of see next week we were
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: back in there, so the possibility is good in April May,
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: and really June July is kind of the last possibility,
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: but it's really thin by that time before we see
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: dark August, and then of course we get into midterms
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: as you see September, October, and November. At that point,
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: if we do not have a clarity issue, as many
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: people have said, including John Deaton last week said that
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: it doesn't happen, so be on the lookout for all
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: that this gets into a lot of other scenarios that
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: could play into this. Once yield gets clarified here this,
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: of course, we'll move into the next phase of trying
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: to get this through Congress. And one of the things
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: that has been outlined many times. We've talked about it
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: with Warren Davidson here on the Channel and others, and
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: that is Trump's business deals, and there you can kind
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: of see where Liberty, FI, Blania, etc. All these kind
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: of situations start to play into a very negative position
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: of the Trump family. So this could get into a
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: situation where Trump actually kills this deal instead of Congress.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: So I'm concerned about that. Timing wise, all of this
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: is happening right around the time that he is doing
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: this mar A Lago event, which of course gets into
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: a whole slew of people that are going to be there,
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: including Kathy would But the point that it gets into
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: is this, right here, we are dealing with timing that
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: starts to put this around April to tenth. So now
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: you have this happening, clarity happening, possibly the end of
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: the war. All of this could get into the right
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: space at the right time, but just so many things
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: have to be aligned. Last point I want to make
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: here is this right here, midterms continue to be pressured,
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: and now Democrats are taking a commanding lead at fifty
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: three percent to take the Senate and have already at
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: this point taken the House. So this would really strap
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: down the administration on getting anything done for crypto guys.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: So this is a big deal. As we continue to
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: watch it, we will cover more coming out of DC
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: this week. If you like this video, like and subscribe,
• 13:29
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• 13:32
  Speaker 1: private member group. The link is in the description.