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Red Districts in Range for Democrats · Balance of Power

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios.
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Speaker 5: Looking forward to the conversations we will have this hour
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Speaker 5: pertaining both to domestic politics and geopolitics as well. As
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Speaker 5: we consider President Trump's own travel today, as we told you,
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Speaker 5: he's heading down to North Carolina. That's what the president
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Speaker 5: of the United States is doing. The president of Ukraine
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Speaker 5: traveling today also, specifically to Oslo, Norway, for talks with
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Speaker 5: Steve Witkoff, one of the president's envoys and negotiators. Jared Kushner,
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Speaker 5: the president's son-in-law, apparently phoning into those conversations. Interesting to
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Speaker 5: see Ukraine And Zelensky, back at the negotiating table with
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Speaker 5: the U.S. even after Joe yesterday, President Trump says he
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Speaker 5: believes someone other than Zelensky should be negotiating on behalf
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Speaker 5: of Ukraine.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, it was a tough day for the relationship with Ukraine,
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Speaker 2: as the president also suggests that he doesn't know what
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Speaker 2: Zelensky is talking about when it comes to throttling Starlink.
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Speaker 2: We're still trying to get to the bottom of that,
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Speaker 2: knowing that Russia continues attacks against Ukraine. And pretty interesting
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Speaker 2: to see this meeting with Steve Witkoff. Zelensky handed him
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Speaker 2: an award in the Norwegian government's official residence. And as
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Speaker 2: you can see here on the terminal, the Norway prime minister,
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Speaker 2: prime minister Storrs says that U.S.-Ukraine talks were good and constructive,
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Speaker 2: but we've been hearing that for years.
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Speaker 6: Yeah.
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Speaker 5: And to this point, they have not resulted in any
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Speaker 5: kind of long-term ceasefire or end to this conflict, which
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Speaker 5: has lasted for more than four years.
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Speaker 1: That's for sure.
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Speaker 2: Let's get to the White House right now. Bloomberg White
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Speaker 2: House correspondent Courtney Subramanian is on the North Lawn with
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Speaker 2: more on all of this. Courtney, thanks for joining us.
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Speaker 2: I know the president's got his head in electoral politics today.
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Speaker 2: He's going to be heading back on the road, going
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Speaker 2: to North Carolina. But some of the comments that he's
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Speaker 2: made over the past couple of days have been pretty tough.
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Speaker 2: Has he decided to turn away from Zelenskyy?
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Speaker 7: Well, it's interesting. He seemingly seems to be courting Putin.
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Speaker 7: He struck this diesel deal with the Russian president that
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Speaker 7: obviously prompted bipartisan blowback. He's waived sanctions from that sanctions
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Speaker 7: bill that overwhelmingly passed Congress. And he said yesterday he's
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Speaker 7: giving Putin space to negotiate. And at the same time,
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Speaker 7: you know, he continues this tussle with Zelenskyy, who has
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Speaker 7: accused the U.S. of withholding intelligence that it shares with Kyiv. But,
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Speaker 7: as you mentioned, the— you know, President Trump did dispatch his U.S. envoy,
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Speaker 7: Steve Witkoff, to Oslo to meet with Zelensky, with Jared Kushner,
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Speaker 7: remote meeting as well. And we are due to hear
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Speaker 7: from Zelensky on how this meeting went, so more to
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Speaker 7: come on whether that's enough to repair relations. But I
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Speaker 7: should note that Witkoff is moving on to Russia after
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Speaker 7: this meeting, where he'll continue to talk to Putin about
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Speaker 7: peace efforts there.
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Speaker 5: Yep, going to St. Petersburg tomorrow. While Witkoff goes to Russia,
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Speaker 5: President Trump will be going to South Carolina tomorrow, Courtney,
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Speaker 5: after a trip to North Carolina today. Given how much
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Speaker 5: investment has been pulled from North Carolina in terms of
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Speaker 5: financing for the campaign of Michael Watley, why is the
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Speaker 5: president investing his time and energy into this state today?
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Speaker 7: Well, it's interesting, because, you know, as you mentioned, he
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Speaker 7: keeps hitting some of these red states where, you know,
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Speaker 7: they've either pulled their money or it's overwhelmingly red. The
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Speaker 7: president and his advisers say this is about generating enthusiasm
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Speaker 7: and bolstering turnout among the Republican base. But some of
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Speaker 7: these places that he's chosen to go this week, Republicans
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Speaker 7: did not even view as you know, something they needed
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Speaker 7: to be worried about just a few short months ago.
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Speaker 7: So I think this all signals just what an uphill
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Speaker 7: battle this all is for the party in this final
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Speaker 7: stretch of the midterms. And the president himself, you know,
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Speaker 7: rally after rally has said, please pretend that I'm on
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Speaker 7: the ballot. But the problem there is polling has showed
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Speaker 7: that his policies on tariffs, his war in Iran, the
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Speaker 7: high cost of living, these are the issues that are
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Speaker 7: the reasons that Republicans are in hot water to begin with.
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Speaker 5: All right, Courtney Supermanian reporting from the White House North Lawn.
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Speaker 5: Thank you so much. And as Courtney describes Republicans as
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Speaker 5: being in hot water, President Trump was pushing back against
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Speaker 5: that notion on his trip to Kansas yesterday, where he
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Speaker 5: began this week's multi-state tour. Obviously there on behalf of
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Speaker 5: the incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall, who is in a
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Speaker 5: much more competitive race now. than was previously anticipated. Democrats
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Speaker 5: feel that they have hope in the candidacy of Adam Hamilton.
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Speaker 5: But President Trump was pushing back on Democrats' hopes and
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Speaker 5: dreams on the rally stage last night.
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Speaker 8: Listen. The maniacs attacking our civilization think they're doing well,
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Speaker 8: but they're not doing well. They think they're doing well,
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Speaker 8: but they have no idea of the giant they have
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Speaker 8: awoken and unleashed.
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Speaker 1: It's this giant right here, all over the country.
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Speaker 8: And they'll find out the hard way on Election Day,
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Speaker 8: November 3rd.
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Speaker 5: So let's get more now from Jim Messina, the CEO
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Speaker 5: of Fortius Global, formerly the Messina Group, and of course,
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Speaker 5: the manager of Obama's 2012 re-election campaign. Jim, welcome back
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Speaker 5: to Balance of Power. It's great to have you two
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Speaker 5: weeks out from the midterms. The president suggested that Democrats
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Speaker 5: think they're doing well. Do Democrats just think that or
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Speaker 5: are they?
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Speaker 9: Well, they are so far.
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Speaker 10: I mean, we're sitting here two weeks out, Kayleigh, and
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Speaker 10: as you and Joe and I have been talking about
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Speaker 10: for years, Democrats are really, really good about blowing sure things.
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Speaker 9: So let's not get out of hand here.
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Speaker 10: But, you know, the numbers I actually care about are
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Speaker 10: the early vote numbers. Over almost four million people as
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Speaker 10: of yesterday have early voted. Democrats have a 15 point
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Speaker 10: lead in party identification of those. You know, the polling
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Speaker 10: looks good, but the polling can be off for a
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Speaker 10: variety of reasons. So early vote is really the one thing.
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Speaker 10: And then the other thing I really look at is enthusiasm.
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Speaker 10: Which voters are more enthusiastic? When I ran presidential campaigns,
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Speaker 10: those are the numbers I really cared about. And Democrats
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Speaker 10: in the new Reuters-Ipsos poll have a 12-point lead in enthusiasm.
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Speaker 10: And that, my friends, is a number that we really
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Speaker 10: care about.
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Speaker 9: Wow, interesting.
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Speaker 2: There was another number in a Washington Post-ABC News Ipsos
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Speaker 2: poll that got my attention, Jim, and it's great to
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Speaker 2: have you here two weeks out. This is the moment
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Speaker 2: we need to go to school with Jim Messina. When
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Speaker 2: you hear that most Americans are confident that the midterm
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Speaker 2: elections will be conducted fairly, but seven in ten do
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Speaker 2: not believe that President Trump will accept the results, what
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Speaker 2: does that tell you about November 4th?
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Speaker 10: That tells you that we're going to have a very
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Speaker 10: interesting first and second day of the election. Election day
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Speaker 10: and the day after are going to be really perilous.
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Speaker 10: I mean, after January 6th last time, after continuing to
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Speaker 10: say he didn't lose that election until this day, Joe,
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Speaker 10: I don't think we can assume the president's going to
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Speaker 10: do anything other than contest this thing. And, you know,
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Speaker 10: Democratic lawyers are preparing to fight this out. There's a
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Speaker 10: chance that the Republicans could want to contest this election
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Speaker 10: all the way to the House of Representatives that must
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Speaker 10: certify the election. The DOJ has announced they're doubling the
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Speaker 10: amount of people they're putting onto the streets to, quote,
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Speaker 10: monitor the election. You know, so I think it's it's
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Speaker 10: very unclear how this is going to go. And it's
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Speaker 10: one of the things that keeps me up at night.
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Speaker 2: So this is changing the rules of the campaign then, right? Normally,
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Speaker 2: your last two weeks are all about GOTV. Now you've
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Speaker 2: got a legal war room set up to prepare for
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Speaker 2: the election to be contested?
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Speaker 10: Yeah, you know it's bad, Joe, when they're pairing kind
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Speaker 10: of the Democrats' most famous lobbyist, Norm Eisen, with me,
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Speaker 10: the biggest political hack. The two of us are running
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Speaker 10: an organization called Democracy Defenders, and we're up every day
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Speaker 10: like worrying about these things, getting ready to file lawsuits,
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Speaker 10: getting ready to put people on the ground to make
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Speaker 10: sure that we actually have a free and fair election.
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Speaker 10: The fact that we're having to do this in the
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Speaker 10: United States of America is on our 250th anniversary is
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Speaker 10: somewhat vexing. But, you know, you got to play the
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Speaker 10: cards in front of you. And this is what we're
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Speaker 10: going to have to do.
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Speaker 5: Well, so money may be about to be spent on
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Speaker 5: a lot of lawyers after a lot of money has
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Speaker 5: already been spent over the course of this cycle. Jim,
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Speaker 5: President Trump just posted on True Social about the money
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Speaker 5: that he himself and his political action committee have committed
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Speaker 5: to this. He says he has spent or will be
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Speaker 5: spending over $ 400 million by Election Day, saying that more
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Speaker 5: than $ 300 million has already been spent on advertising, direct
9:12
Speaker 5: and indirect voter contact, rallies, rally arenas, tele-rallies, get out
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Speaker 5: the vote programs, election integrity.
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Speaker 7: And more.
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Speaker 9: We should note that Michael R.
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Speaker 5: Bloomberg, the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg TV and radio,
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Speaker 5: also has contributed some $ 80 million late in the game
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Speaker 5: to Democrats. My question is, this late in the game,
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Speaker 5: whether it's Trump's money or anyone else's money, what does
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Speaker 5: the money buy you two weeks out with so many people,
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Speaker 5: to the point you were making earlier, already having gone
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Speaker 5: to the polls with early voting?
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Speaker 10: Yeah, this is why the early money is so important, right?
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Speaker 10: Elon Musk has now put in $ 289 million, a quarter
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Speaker 10: of a billion dollars. Donald Trump's talking about the big
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Speaker 10: numbers he's putting in. I would note on the Trump numbers,
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Speaker 10: just to be factual, that a majority of that money
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Speaker 10: is for his own rallies.
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Speaker 9: And you guys just had this exactly right.
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Speaker 10: Tomorrow, he's in a Republican plus 43 district in South Carolina.
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Speaker 10: That's not really helping in the battleground states. But I
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Speaker 10: think money gets less and less important every single day.
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Speaker 10: What is true is money in House races is much
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Speaker 10: more effective than money in Senate races. In Texas, the
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Speaker 10: biggest swing Senate race that we're all following, they just
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Speaker 10: passed $ 500 million in TV spending. I don't think another
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Speaker 10: $ 5 or $ 10 million is going to do anything, Kayleigh,
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Speaker 10: except for make the TV station owners a little bit richer.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, this is going to be a lucrative quarter here
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Speaker 2: for many of them. Jim, how about the debates? We've
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Speaker 2: got a couple of big ones this week. Kansas, where
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Speaker 2: the president was last evening, and Michigan today. which has
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Speaker 2: become a full-time occupation for some just following this race
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Speaker 2: between Al-Sayed and Mike Rogers. Who's the audience, is what
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Speaker 2: we've been asking with two weeks to go. Where does
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Speaker 2: this undecided voter exist?
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Speaker 10: It's a great question, especially in some of these battleground states.
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Speaker 10: Kansas is really the best test of this, Joe. Democrats
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Speaker 10: last won a Senate race in Kansas in 1932, shortly
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Speaker 10: before you and I went into high school.
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Speaker 9: Like this has been almost 100 years.
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Speaker 10: And the fact that the president of the United States
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Speaker 10: is racing to Kansas to protect that seat is, Kind.
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Speaker 9: Of shows you where the map is. That's probably a race.
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Speaker 10: Where there's way more undecided than any other place because
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Speaker 10: there just hasn't been spending there until the last couple
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Speaker 10: of weeks.
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Speaker 9: Michigan's the most interesting race.
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Speaker 10: You know, both parties have taken money off the air
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Speaker 10: in Georgia and North Carolina, ceding those to the to
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Speaker 10: the Democrats.
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Speaker 9: Both put that money there.
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Speaker 10: In three interesting places, the biggest place where all the
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Speaker 10: money is going is Michigan and then South Carolina and Kansas.
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Speaker 10: And if you and I, the three of us, have
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Speaker 10: been talking about Senate races for a year, none of
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Speaker 10: us thought we'd be talking about South Carolina and Kansas
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Speaker 10: with two weeks left.
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Speaker 6: Hmm.
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Speaker 5: Well, so what we think about South Carolina specifically, Jim,
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Speaker 5: obviously it is now the incumbent Republican Senator Darlene Graham,
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Speaker 5: the sister of the late Lindsey Graham, who was appointed
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Speaker 5: to fill in his seat on a temporary basis and
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Speaker 5: is now running for reelection in his stead. How complicated
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Speaker 5: might Trump's visit there be, knowing that he just waived
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Speaker 5: sanctions on Russia against the wishes of her late brother
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Speaker 5: in the bill that was passed that literally has his
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Speaker 5: name on it? How much do you think geopolitics is
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Speaker 5: going to be a major factor in a state like
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Speaker 5: South Carolina, which was represented by one of the biggest
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Speaker 5: talks of all time, Lindsey Graham, for so long?
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Speaker 10: Yeah, look, if I'm Darlene Graham's campaign manager, I just
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Speaker 10: put my hands on my head and say, no, no, no,
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Speaker 10: please don't come here. Like, you know, the president's going
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Speaker 10: to these safe congressional races, which on one hand is OK.
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Speaker 10: On the other hand, these safe congressional races also have
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Speaker 10: Senate races in them. And, you know, to your exact point, Kayleigh,
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Speaker 10: if you're sitting here in a very close race near
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Speaker 10: Darlene Graham, where people don't know who she is, She
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Speaker 10: had a really, really tough debate. She doesn't want to
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Speaker 10: answer questions about why Donald Trump is going against everything
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Speaker 10: her brother preached for an entire 25-year Senate career. You know,
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Speaker 10: Lindsey Graham was the biggest Russian hawk in the United
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Speaker 10: States Senate. Now Donald Trump's doing exactly what Lindsey Graham
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Speaker 10: campaigned for his entire career not to do. So if
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Speaker 10: you're Darlene Graham, you really just want this entire thing
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Speaker 10: to go away. And having the president in your state
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Speaker 10: with 13 days left— isn't helpful.
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Speaker 2: Just a minute left, Jim, I want to ask you
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Speaker 2: about what's going to happen in four days, Barack Obama
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Speaker 2: and Abdul El-Sayed in Detroit, they'll actually share a stage.
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Speaker 2: And we know that the president, the former president has
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Speaker 2: already made some ads for him in a world in
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Speaker 2: which president Trump refers to the democratic nominee in Michigan
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Speaker 2: as a terrorist sympathizer and a jihadist. What lesson can
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Speaker 2: he learn from Barack Obama?
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Speaker 10: Bringing your party together, being positive and understanding it's a
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Speaker 10: big tent, and that your personal approval rating, Barack Obama's
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Speaker 10: the most popular political figure in America, and him on
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Speaker 10: the stump is helpful to candidates in a way that
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Speaker 10: the president just isn't. Charlie Cook this week said that
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Speaker 10: President Trump has turned into radioactive on the campaign trail. Meanwhile,
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Speaker 10: I get calls every single day from campaigns begging to
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Speaker 10: have Barack Obama.
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Speaker 1: How about that?
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Speaker 2: That's going to be something to watch. Jim, it's great
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Speaker 2: to see you. I hope you're keeping the anxiety in check.
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Speaker 2: We'd love to talk to you again before everyone goes
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Speaker 2: to vote in two weeks. Jim Messina, CEO, Fortius Global,
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Speaker 2: formerly the Messina Group, and of course, Barack Obama's campaign
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Speaker 2: manager in 2012.
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Speaker 1: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much
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Speaker 1: more coming up after this.
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Speaker 4: Thank you for joining us on the Tuesday edition. We're
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Speaker 4: live in Washington as we connect the dots between Washington
15:03
Speaker 4: and Wall Street.
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Speaker 10: And forgive the.
15:24
Speaker 2: The 1970s kid in me, the James Bond fan, to
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Speaker 2: first think about you only live twice when I read
15:31
Speaker 2: this story over the weekend. You seen that Bond movie?
15:35
Speaker 2: This was like late 60s. And it opens up with
15:37
Speaker 2: this really corny space sequence. I mean, if you're under
15:42
Speaker 2: a certain age, you'd laugh at it. But it was
15:44
Speaker 2: pretty dramatic when this thing came out in the 60s.
15:47
Speaker 2: A hijacking in space, a jaw like spaceship swallowing up
15:52
Speaker 2: another one. as it approaches Jupiter 16. Something pretty close
15:58
Speaker 2: to that could be happening in orbit now. But instead
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Speaker 2: of Spectre, it's Putin. Now, I read about this. First,
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Speaker 2: it was Axios over the weekend. They took a swing
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Speaker 2: at this on Saturday. New York Times got to it
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Speaker 2: today with the headline, Russian satellite makes a menacing approach
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Speaker 2: to another crafted orbit.
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Speaker 1: Menacing? Menacing?
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Speaker 2: But it was CSIS, the Center for Strategic International Studies,
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Speaker 2: that was writing about it last week. They were watching
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Speaker 2: this stuff in their very specialized shop that tracks all
16:31
Speaker 2: of this. Let me bring you up to date. It
16:33
Speaker 2: took place over the weekend, a mysterious Russian satellite. It
16:36
Speaker 2: sounds better when you call it mysterious. Known as simply
16:40
Speaker 2: Cosmos 2612. Moved threateningly close to a U.S. commercial radar
16:47
Speaker 2: satellite that, guess what, provides imagery to Ukraine. specifically the
16:53
Speaker 2: Ukrainian military. So antennas went up, figuratively speaking, in the
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Speaker 2: United States. This Russian satellite was one of six that
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Speaker 2: launched on a Soyuz rocket back in April.
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Speaker 1: Have they been planning this the whole time?
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Speaker 2: Beginning on September 30, it made a series of maneuvers
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Speaker 2: to approach this U.S.
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Speaker 1: Radar satellite.
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Speaker 2: Got so close here, it might not sound like a lot,
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Speaker 2: that we started wondering if there was something more. Russia
17:23
Speaker 2: has a long history of intercepting and harassing U.S. fighter
17:28
Speaker 2: jets and bombers over the Arctic Circle, for instance. We
17:32
Speaker 2: may have a new version of that now. And I'll
17:35
Speaker 2: remind you that it was September 15, 15 days before
17:39
Speaker 2: this launched, that the secretary of the U.S. Air Force
17:43
Speaker 2: revealed the deployment of space weapons, confirmed the fact that
17:47
Speaker 2: the U.S. has weapons in orbit, did not detail what
17:50
Speaker 2: they are or how they work. By the end of
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Speaker 2: the week, this satellite, the Russian satellite, Cosmos 2612, closed
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Speaker 2: within a couple of hundred meters, almost in the same orbit.
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Speaker 2: Late Sunday, it moved to a slightly higher orbit, slowing
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Speaker 2: its speed. By yesterday afternoon, the distance between the two
18:14
Speaker 2: satellites was over 250 miles, increasing by about 10 miles
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Speaker 2: an hour. So they got up all in our grill
18:22
Speaker 2: for some reason, maybe this was some sort of practice,
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Speaker 2: and then backed off. Seems to me like this story
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Speaker 2: ought to be getting a lot more coverage. And we're
18:32
Speaker 2: very lucky to know that CSIS, as I mentioned, was
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Speaker 2: all over it. Dated the 15th of October, could Russia
18:40
Speaker 2: be poised to use an orbit weapon against a commercial satellite?
18:46
Speaker 2: Clayton Swope is the force behind this research. And it's
18:49
Speaker 2: times like these when we need an expert. He's the
18:52
Speaker 2: deputy director of the Aerospace Security Project at CSIS. Clayton,
18:56
Speaker 2: it's great to see you. And thank you for joining us.
18:58
Speaker 2: Thank you for doing this great work. I'll ask you
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Speaker 2: the question that you're asking in your own headline. Is,
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Speaker 2: in fact, Russia poised to act militarily against a U.S.
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Speaker 1: Satellite?
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Speaker 9: Well, Joe, thanks for having me on your show.
19:12
Speaker 11: And if you want to come over and do some
19:14
Speaker 11: part-time work at CSIS to do the chapeaus for all
19:16
Speaker 11: my research, I would love to have you on the
19:18
Speaker 11: team because I think you set that up very well.
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Speaker 1: Well, so it looks like, hey.
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Speaker 11: Everyone needs part-time work. Why not? It's a side gig. So, yeah,
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Speaker 11: I think we don't know what was the intention of
19:32
Speaker 11: this operation. We just know what we see from Earth.
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Speaker 11: We tracked this satellite. It launched back in April. And
19:40
Speaker 11: in May, it took some very, we could say, menacing, hostile,
19:44
Speaker 11: alerting maneuvers that put it into an orbit that raised
19:48
Speaker 11: a lot of red flags with this. commercial radar satellite
19:51
Speaker 11: operated by ISAI. It went away for months. We didn't
19:56
Speaker 11: know where, well, we knew where the satellite was, but
19:59
Speaker 11: it wasn't in the same position that was so threatening
20:01
Speaker 11: with its peers. So about a handful of satellites. One
20:04
Speaker 11: of them, this Cosmos 2612, went back into this threatening position.
20:09
Speaker 11: We call it coplanar. So it's in an orbit that
20:12
Speaker 11: raises a lot of eyebrows because satellites in low Earth
20:14
Speaker 11: orbit don't usually operate there. These are satellites like Starlink
20:18
Speaker 11: that provide broadband or satellites that take pictures of the Earth.
20:21
Speaker 11: So to put it in a coplanar orbit takes a
20:23
Speaker 11: lot of energy and a lot of gas out of
20:26
Speaker 11: its gas tank. And most satellite operators just don't want
20:28
Speaker 11: to do that. So when that happened about a week ago,
20:31
Speaker 11: people started wondering what's about to happen next. And then
20:35
Speaker 11: what happened ended up being essentially what we foresaw in
20:38
Speaker 11: that analysis that it got really close. And I think
20:41
Speaker 11: a lot of us were waiting, okay, well, now what's
20:44
Speaker 11: going to happen? And it just went off into another orbit.
20:47
Speaker 11: And as you pointed out, it's been moving away from
20:49
Speaker 11: that ICI satellite ever since. So we don't know, did
20:51
Speaker 11: it do a test? Did it do a dry run?
20:54
Speaker 11: Was there some other reason that it decided to call
20:57
Speaker 11: off an operation? I think right now we just have
20:59
Speaker 11: a lot of questions and wonder what happens next.
21:03
Speaker 2: Clayton, I don't know how old you are, but we
21:04
Speaker 2: all remember, you know, Ronald Reagan and Star Wars in
21:06
Speaker 2: the 1980s. And it was fantasy land at that point.
21:09
Speaker 2: It's actually very controversial. Fast forward to the Golden Dome
21:12
Speaker 2: with Donald Trump and people, you can't do the Golden Dome.
21:16
Speaker 2: But you see a story like this and you start wondering, hey,
21:18
Speaker 2: do we need a Golden Dome? But maybe more importantly,
21:21
Speaker 2: forget that question for now. Broadly, is this the new
21:25
Speaker 2: threat vector? Is this the new battlefield in space?
21:31
Speaker 11: Well, we should think about how what happens in space
21:33
Speaker 11: ties to what happens on Earth. So if we look
21:35
Speaker 11: at what was happening over the weekend, well, for example,
21:38
Speaker 11: the United States decided it wanted to waive some new
21:40
Speaker 11: sanctions on Russia. And at that same time, it looks
21:44
Speaker 11: like the satellite started to move off in another direction,
21:46
Speaker 11: in a less threatening direction than it had been before.
21:49
Speaker 11: for the past few weeks. Is that a coincidence? You know,
21:53
Speaker 11: it's tough to say, but I don't think that we
21:55
Speaker 11: should look at what happens in space as separate from
21:58
Speaker 11: what's happening on Earth. And in another case, we should
22:00
Speaker 11: look at this as an example of Russia doing hybrid warfare,
22:03
Speaker 11: gray zone activities that threaten US interests and European interests,
22:07
Speaker 11: sabotage against the Starlink ground station in Poland, a foiled
22:11
Speaker 11: drone attack in Germany, sabotage operations planned against undersea cables,
22:16
Speaker 11: cyber attacks, jamming and spoofing of GPS signals, and now
22:19
Speaker 11: we have to pay attention to what they're doing to
22:21
Speaker 11: satellites in space. But really it's all part of the
22:24
Speaker 11: same problem, the same issue. How do we stop Russia
22:27
Speaker 11: from pushing against the West, against the United States in
22:29
Speaker 11: such a way that we have to figure out how
22:31
Speaker 11: to respond so that we can deter these activities in
22:33
Speaker 11: the future. So to me, it's not how important space
22:36
Speaker 11: is and how we should look at it differently. It's
22:38
Speaker 11: really how it fits into the broader picture, the broader
22:41
Speaker 11: geopolitical picture of what's happening on Earth.
22:44
Speaker 1: Really interesting.
22:45
Speaker 2: Boy, CC has got the fancy satellite VO. You got
22:47
Speaker 2: to get on YouTube right now.
22:50
Speaker 1: Okay.
22:50
Speaker 2: So I want to get a sense of, and maybe
22:53
Speaker 2: you can't answer this, what we are doing to prepare
22:56
Speaker 2: for this. I mentioned the U S air force secretaries
23:00
Speaker 2: back in the middle of September. Remember this confirming the
23:02
Speaker 2: fact that we have weapons of some sort in orbit
23:06
Speaker 2: fast forward to this, this sharing of texts from Ashley St. Claire,
23:12
Speaker 2: the former MAGA influencer who had a child with Elon Musk.
23:16
Speaker 2: Musk allegedly sent her and it's in this new Musk documentary,
23:20
Speaker 2: a text in which he wrote that he had 10,000
23:23
Speaker 2: lasers in space.
23:25
Speaker 1: Is there some sort of connection here?
23:28
Speaker 11: Well, for a second there, Joe, I was wondering where
23:30
Speaker 11: you were going with the text.
23:32
Speaker 1: But now I see it. Don't worry.
23:35
Speaker 11: I think when it comes to the idea of disclosing
23:38
Speaker 11: on-orbit space control weapons, which is what the Secretary of
23:41
Speaker 11: the Air Force mentioned, we're really looking for ways to
23:44
Speaker 11: deter Russia and also China from taking hostile activities in space,
23:48
Speaker 11: just like what we saw over the past week. Arguably,
23:52
Speaker 11: we really haven't figured that out yet. I think it
23:55
Speaker 11: comes back to what are the consequences of these activities
23:59
Speaker 11: in space.
23:59
Speaker 1: What should Russia expect?
24:01
Speaker 11: If it takes actions like this, if China takes actions
24:03
Speaker 11: like this against US satellites, against friendly satellites, what is
24:06
Speaker 11: the US going to do? And until we make that clear,
24:09
Speaker 11: that linkage clear between action and then consequence, it will
24:13
Speaker 11: be really hard to say how, no matter how many
24:15
Speaker 11: lasers you have in space, how many on our space weapons,
24:17
Speaker 11: that that's really going to be an effective deterrent. We
24:20
Speaker 11: also need to really establish what is escalatory? What is
24:23
Speaker 11: line crossing? What is okay to do in space and
24:26
Speaker 11: what is not okay? We don't really have a good
24:28
Speaker 11: basis for that right now when it comes to norms
24:30
Speaker 11: and standards in space. I don't want to quite say
24:33
Speaker 11: it's the Wild West, but it's close. So without that
24:35
Speaker 11: understanding of what is okay, what is not okay, what
24:38
Speaker 11: is hostile, what is not, that's another kind of piece
24:41
Speaker 11: of the puzzle here that we need to put in
24:43
Speaker 11: place in order to have an effective way to deter
24:45
Speaker 11: these type of activities.
24:46
Speaker 1: Right.
24:47
Speaker 2: Sounds like we need a Geneva Convention for space in
24:51
Speaker 2: our final 30 seconds.
24:52
Speaker 1: Is that next?
24:54
Speaker 11: Yeah, I think we should look at other domains. We
24:56
Speaker 11: should look at the rules we have. They're called collision
24:57
Speaker 11: regulations for ships at sea. Those go back centuries. We
25:00
Speaker 11: should look at the rules we have to the International
25:02
Speaker 11: Civil Aviation Organization for civil air traffic. I can get
25:06
Speaker 11: on an airplane here in Washington and go to Beijing,
25:08
Speaker 11: even though the U.S. and China compete. We don't really
25:10
Speaker 11: have a framework, an international treaty like that. And that's
25:13
Speaker 11: kind of what we need to think about for space.
25:16
Speaker 2: Clayton, I'm so glad you could come on today. What
25:18
Speaker 2: a wild story. Clayton Swope does this for a living
25:21
Speaker 2: at CSIS. Thank you for the expertise.
25:23
Speaker 3: Thanks, Jeff.
25:23
Speaker 1: I'd love to help you set up this kind of
25:25
Speaker 1: research anytime. Thank you.
25:27
Speaker 2: I'll send the resume over. I knew this was going
25:30
Speaker 2: to be a good day. You know, you think about it.
25:32
Speaker 2: Maybe it's not James Bond. It's Hal, the original AI.
25:39
Speaker 2: Stay with us here on Balance of Power. We have
25:41
Speaker 2: much more from the nation's capital. in a program that
25:44
Speaker 2: is truly out of this world. Coming up, our political panel,
25:49
Speaker 2: Jeannie Shanzano, Rosemary Becky, will take you back on the
25:52
Speaker 2: midterm campaign trail with, yes, two weeks to go. Stay
25:57
Speaker 2: with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more
25:59
Speaker 2: coming up after this.
26:04
Speaker 4: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
26:08
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26:20
Speaker 5: The second to last Tuesday of this election cycle, two
26:23
Speaker 5: weeks from today. is Election Day. And with every day
26:27
Speaker 5: we get closer to that day, it seems like we
26:29
Speaker 5: have new ratings changes to tell you about from some
26:32
Speaker 5: of the key nonpartisan political watchers. Today, we had Larry
26:35
Speaker 5: Sabato's crystal ball at the University of Virginia moving 28
26:39
Speaker 5: House races in the direction of Democrats. Most reading changes
26:43
Speaker 5: to this point are moving in the direction of Democrats.
26:47
Speaker 5: Same goes for two new ratings changes from the Cook
26:49
Speaker 5: Political Report when it comes to Senate races. Cook moving
26:52
Speaker 5: both South Carolina and Mississippi more away from Republican. South
26:57
Speaker 5: Carolina from likely R to lean R and Mississippi from
27:00
Speaker 5: solid R to likely Republican. Interesting though. Minnesota is a
27:05
Speaker 5: different story. This is one that both Cook and Crystal
27:08
Speaker 5: Ball have moved away from Democrats in just the last week.
27:12
Speaker 5: Cook Political Report now saying it goes from a likely
27:14
Speaker 5: Democrat to lean Democrat. Makes you wonder what's going on
27:18
Speaker 5: there with Peggy Flanagan and Michelle Tafoya.
27:20
Speaker 1: That's correct.
27:21
Speaker 2: Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan has been polling pretty well, so
27:25
Speaker 2: I think a lot of Democrats thought that this might
27:27
Speaker 2: be in the bag. Let's remember, Minnesota has not elected
27:29
Speaker 2: a Republican since Norm Coleman, which was in 2002. This
27:32
Speaker 2: is Al Franken's old seat. This is the seat being
27:35
Speaker 2: vacated by Tina Smith. You would think that the Democrat
27:37
Speaker 2: would have.
27:38
Speaker 1: The lead here.
27:39
Speaker 2: But when you look at what was written by Cook,
27:41
Speaker 2: we're skeptical. They write of some public polling that has
27:45
Speaker 2: shown the race close. Flanagan has only just now started
27:49
Speaker 2: spending after a brutal Democratic primary. Interesting, they suggest that
27:54
Speaker 2: voter anger over the state's widespread fraud scandal will stick
27:58
Speaker 2: to Flanagan and override concerns about ICE enforcement that, of course,
28:02
Speaker 2: has been so important there. Let's Let's see what our
28:05
Speaker 2: political panel thinks about all this. Bloomberg politics contributor and
28:07
Speaker 2: Democratic analyst Jeanne Shanzano was with us. Democracy visiting fellow
28:11
Speaker 2: at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center, alongside Republican strategist Rosemary Becky,
28:16
Speaker 2: who's a partner of Brownstein Hyatt, also president of Jersey First.
28:20
Speaker 2: Great to see both of you with us here. Rosemary,
28:23
Speaker 2: you holding out hope for Minnesota, and do you feel
28:26
Speaker 2: the same way? Are you skeptical of the public polling
28:29
Speaker 2: in this race?
28:31
Speaker 12: You know, it's definitely a long shot, but Michelle has
28:37
Speaker 12: been out there working hard, raising money, so you never know.
28:42
Speaker 1: But it is.
28:44
Speaker 12: Definitely a long shot. I mean, look, You know, there's
28:48
Speaker 12: a lot of issues on the minds of Americans. And
28:51
Speaker 12: as we're seeing, it's boiling down to affordability, concerns about
28:56
Speaker 12: the war.
28:56
Speaker 1: And so, you know, a lot.
28:59
Speaker 12: Can happen in the next two weeks as Americans are
29:03
Speaker 12: showing up to vote, you know, in early voting, mailing
29:06
Speaker 12: ballots and what they ultimately want. how they ultimately actually
29:13
Speaker 12: feel on election day. So we'll see how this turns out.
29:17
Speaker 12: But it seems like anything goes right now.
29:21
Speaker 5: Well, so Jeannie, are you finding yourself a little bit
29:24
Speaker 5: more worried about Minnesota?
29:27
Speaker 11: Absolutely.
29:28
Speaker 3: And I think we all have to be. And Kaylee,
29:30
Speaker 3: I wonder if this is why when the president and
29:34
Speaker 3: the vice president, I think we expect them to come
29:37
Speaker 3: out if they're on time in a few minutes and
29:39
Speaker 3: per talk about a new tip line for fraud. Minnesota
29:44
Speaker 3: may be top of mind.
29:46
Speaker 9: J.D.
29:46
Speaker 3: Vance has been tasked with running this task force. And
29:51
Speaker 3: of course, the kind of fraud that we're talking about
29:55
Speaker 3: in Minnesota that has angered so many people in that state.
30:00
Speaker 3: that may be top of mind when they come out. Because,
30:04
Speaker 3: you know, as much as we think about in the
30:07
Speaker 3: modern era, these races being nationalized, there are also local
30:11
Speaker 3: and state.
30:12
Speaker 1: Issues at play here.
30:13
Speaker 3: And the people of Minnesota are rightly angered by what
30:16
Speaker 3: has happened there. The president and the vice president know that.
30:20
Speaker 3: And that is what is hurting the lieutenant governor, potentially,
30:24
Speaker 3: if the polls are to be believed in this race.
30:27
Speaker 3: And of course, on the flip side, Michelle Tafoya, she
30:31
Speaker 3: is a known entity. She's been on people's TVs for years.
30:34
Speaker 3: She's somebody they trust, and she's an attractive candidate. So
30:38
Speaker 3: Democrats should be very concerned. You know, it's an odd
30:42
Speaker 3: year when Minnesota may go Republican and Texas may go Democratic,
30:46
Speaker 3: but here we are.
30:48
Speaker 1: We're throwing this whole thing up in the air, Jeannie Shanzano.
30:51
Speaker 2: There was an interesting moment when these two had their
30:54
Speaker 2: debate on Friday evening. The issue of impeaching Pete Hegseth
30:58
Speaker 2: came up, the defense secretary. Peggy Flanagan supported the idea
31:04
Speaker 2: of impeachment. And by the way, this might already be
31:06
Speaker 2: happening because of the legislation that is waiting on the
31:09
Speaker 2: floor that Tom Massey put forth. When lawmakers come back,
31:12
Speaker 2: the clock is going to be ticking on a vote
31:14
Speaker 2: that will likely lead to an impeachment vote here.
31:16
Speaker 1: Uh, Flanagan supported the idea.
31:19
Speaker 2: Tafoya gave the secretary a grade of incomplete. Is that enough, Rosemary,
31:26
Speaker 2: when Republicans are trying to find some sunlight between themselves
31:30
Speaker 2: and Donald Trump?
31:34
Speaker 12: To be determined, you know, again, I think it's so
31:40
Speaker 12: important to kind of talk about the issues and And
31:45
Speaker 12: I think, you know, when you see things like that,
31:49
Speaker 12: it's pretty difficult.
31:50
Speaker 9: I know.
31:53
Speaker 12: Certainly most Americans struggled with some of the decisions that
31:57
Speaker 12: had recently been made by the secretary. And so, you know,
32:04
Speaker 12: it is important to really for her to get out
32:08
Speaker 12: there and kind of stand her ground on where she
32:11
Speaker 12: is with regards to, you know, any kind of impeachment
32:16
Speaker 12: or any, you know, anything like that. And certainly those
32:20
Speaker 12: aren't great uses of resources. And I think that, you know,
32:24
Speaker 12: she needs to kind of turn the corner and talk about,
32:28
Speaker 12: you know, really the issues that voters are most concerned about.
32:35
Speaker 5: Well, speaking of resources, Jeannie, I want to talk about
32:37
Speaker 5: another race that was changed by Cook, which was Mississippi
32:41
Speaker 5: going from safe to likely Republican. The Senate majority pack, which,
32:46
Speaker 5: of course, is the Chuck Schumer affiliated group, is up
32:49
Speaker 5: on the air in Mississippi with a one point two
32:51
Speaker 5: million dollar ad campaign in support of Scott Collum, who,
32:54
Speaker 5: of course, is challenging the incumbent Republican Cindy Hydesmith. Are
32:58
Speaker 5: Democrats too little too late in trying to throw money
33:01
Speaker 5: at this state? Could they be leaving a seat on
33:03
Speaker 5: the table potentially?
33:05
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, the investment should have come earlier, I believe,
33:10
Speaker 3: but it is the right thing to do. Even, Kayleigh,
33:14
Speaker 3: I know when you say that this, it's absolutely true,
33:17
Speaker 3: but I think in my head, Mississippi potentially going Democratic,
33:21
Speaker 3: it is just astonishing where we are. But I think,
33:24
Speaker 3: you know, in this case, you have an incumbent. And
33:28
Speaker 3: the Democrats are able to try to tie her to
33:31
Speaker 3: a very unpopular Washington, D.C. and a very unpopular president.
33:36
Speaker 3: And of course, you have a Democrat in column who
33:41
Speaker 3: is attractive, who is a law and order guy, who's
33:44
Speaker 3: a district attorney. So this is a race where Democrats
33:48
Speaker 3: should be investing in young and promising talent.
33:51
Speaker 9: And they are.
33:52
Speaker 3: But I think if you look at both of these races,
33:54
Speaker 3: you see something in common. which is this is a
33:57
Speaker 3: difficult environment for incumbents. And so for Flanagan, she is
34:02
Speaker 3: sort of representing the government of the state in Minnesota,
34:05
Speaker 3: the Democrats, and they are unpopular at this point. And likewise,
34:10
Speaker 3: as you look at Mississippi, you've got an incumbent there.
34:13
Speaker 3: This is all about trying to take it to incumbents
34:17
Speaker 3: and say Washington or the state capitol is corrupt.
34:22
Speaker 9: We need change.
34:23
Speaker 3: And that is making voters get out to vote.
34:26
Speaker 2: Well, there's an incumbent who's not on the ballot, but
34:29
Speaker 2: he wants you to pretend he is, named Donald Trump. Rosemary,
34:32
Speaker 2: this analysis by the New York Times on what is
34:35
Speaker 2: actually in the ads, or maybe what's not in the
34:38
Speaker 2: ads that Republicans are buying, is fascinating. You hear the
34:42
Speaker 2: president say, pretend I'm on the ballot. The fact of
34:44
Speaker 2: the matter is, on the air, less than $ 1 of
34:47
Speaker 2: every $ 100 in Republican television ad spending, House and Senate,
34:53
Speaker 2: for the month of September through middle of October, has
34:56
Speaker 2: gone toward commercials that mention the word Trump.
34:59
Speaker 1: One dollar. Isn't that all you need to know?
35:02
Speaker 12: Yeah, I mean, I don't think anybody should be surprised
35:08
Speaker 12: by that, right? I mean, all of the polling that
35:12
Speaker 12: we've talked about in the last hour, you know, clearly
35:15
Speaker 12: shows that the president is unpopular right now and is
35:20
Speaker 12: as Jeannie just mentioned, you know, we are in very
35:23
Speaker 12: much in a state of throw the bums out. People
35:27
Speaker 12: are very dissatisfied with Washington. And so it's not surprising
35:34
Speaker 12: at all to me or shouldn't be surprising.
35:36
Speaker 6: To anyone that, you know, no money is being spent
35:41
Speaker 6: on ads that glorify or emphasize, you know, Congress and
35:46
Speaker 6: the president.
35:50
Speaker 5: I want to know what the subsequent number is for
35:52
Speaker 5: Democratic campaign ads that mention Trump across House and Senate.
35:56
Speaker 5: I would imagine, Jeannie, that the number of Democratic ads
36:00
Speaker 5: that mention Trump and whatever the Republican opponent is in
36:04
Speaker 5: the same ad is probably significantly higher.
36:07
Speaker 3: Yeah, what I hear is it's about $ 145 million, if
36:12
Speaker 3: I have that number right, Kayleigh. And, you know, the
36:15
Speaker 3: Democrats have been saying for months they agree with Donald
36:19
Speaker 3: Trump on one thing. The more Trump on the air,
36:22
Speaker 3: the more Trump out on that campaign trail, the better
36:24
Speaker 3: for them. And you know it's bad when you look
36:27
Speaker 3: at John Sununu, the Republican candidate in New Hampshire, has
36:31
Speaker 3: an ad out where he is like face-to-camera saying, And
36:35
Speaker 3: he is completely distancing himself from Donald Trump because while Sununu's, plural,
36:42
Speaker 3: in New Hampshire are very popular, Donald Trump is not.
36:46
Speaker 3: And he is just pleading with voters in New Hampshire
36:49
Speaker 3: to understand that he is the independent voice that New
36:52
Speaker 3: Hampshireites like. He is not a Donald Trump sort of guy,
36:57
Speaker 3: even though Donald Trump endorsed him. And we're seeing this
36:59
Speaker 3: up and down the ballot. You see it, for instance,
37:02
Speaker 3: Dan Sullivan. I mean, he openly has an ad out
37:06
Speaker 3: which says that he took exception to Donald Trump as
37:10
Speaker 3: it pertained to the release of the Epstein file. So,
37:13
Speaker 3: you know, as much distance as they can get, they're
37:15
Speaker 3: going for it. But no, Democrats, we love Trump.
37:17
Speaker 5: More Trump.
37:18
Speaker 3: Let's get him out there and show people what they're
37:20
Speaker 3: in store for if they vote Republican.
37:24
Speaker 5: Yeah, The New York Times does, in fact, have those figures.
37:26
Speaker 5: Twenty dollars out of every hundred dollars on spots mentioning Mr.
37:29
Speaker 5: Trump during that same period by the Democrats. Jeannie Shanzano
37:33
Speaker 5: and Rosemary Becky, our political panel on this Tuesday, two
37:36
Speaker 5: weeks out from Election Day. Thank you so much.
37:38
Speaker 9: For joining us.
37:41
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make
37:44
Speaker 2: sure to subscribe if you haven't already. Apple, Spotify or
37:47
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37:50
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