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Shapiroworld by Strictly Business · Strictly Business

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You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams.
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It's Monday.
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It's the first Business Monday of the new year.
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In fact, it's the first Monday of the new year.
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So it's time for Shapiro World with David Shapiro from Sassman Securities in
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Johannesburg.
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David, it's been so long since we've spoken for various reasons, but mainly
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because of the holiday.
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And so much has gone on and so much is going on as we speak.
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It must be difficult for you.
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to have a look at your Outlook 2026, which you kindly sent me,
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and realize that actually every day you've got to add new stuff to it.
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I've just been talking to a colleague and I said,
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you start off at the beginning of December and you start to think of what's going to
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happen next year.
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No one really knows, but you just want to have a few themes that you can talk about.
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And as the month goes by, you have to keep adjusting and and kind of recalibrating,
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so on.
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And I only have to draw attention to what happened over the weekend with Maduro and
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with Mr.
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Trump and his, the Donro doctrine, you know, his play on the Monroe doctrine,
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and suddenly everything's changing.
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You know, you've got a lot more things to consider now.
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But that's markets, Lindsay.
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Every day is a different day.
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Every day you have to wake up and listen to the news and kind of refocus your
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compass or
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reposition your portfolios, reposition your thoughts.
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Yeah, but this is an extraordinary time.
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And we'll come to that because Trump is part of your and the United States is part
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of your Outlook 2026,
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which incidentally, it's sort of headlined AI.
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And we've spoken so much about artificial intelligence.
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intelligence over the last year, both as you and I and also with Viv Govender.
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But you say Outlook 2026, the year of AI adoption.
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Yes.
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Now, there's two different types of AI to me.
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There's the AI that I use every day.
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In other words, the AI adoption from a dinosaur like myself and companies
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adopting AI and hospitals,
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et cetera, increasingly adopting AI for their own good.
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And then there's the AI which has run ahead.
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of all of the things that I've just mentioned, all the entities and the people
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that I've just mentioned, and that is the shares themselves.
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I mean, if you look at Nvidia, it went to $205 per share.
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It's mucking about $185 to $190 as we speak, which is still fantastic, but also
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fantastically valued,
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David.
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What do you think about, firstly, AI adoption?
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Will it increase this year?
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Why I say that is that one of my
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The best ways that I use to look at markets, I read the headlines and,
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you know, I look at what the thought processes are.
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You know, as we went in last year, I mean, October, November, December.
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Yeah.
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Oh, sorry.
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I just got a bit of interference there.
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Apologies.
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That's all right.
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So.
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The point being is that there was so much talk about the so-called AI bubble.
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Where's the monetization?
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Where's this going?
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You know, this is bad.
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There were even people in South Africa, you know, a lot of money managers that I
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read, I'm taking,
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you know, I'm not getting involved in this.
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I'm stepping aside.
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And that was kind of a theme.
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And then suddenly, as we start, you know, coming to 2026, those stories are gone.
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And you're finding more and more businesses saying, you know, we've got to
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start looking at this.
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We can't afford not to look at it.
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And the fact that you're using it, that I'm using it, that more and more people
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like that are using it,
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is in fact adopting AI.
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And as we go on, so we learn to take it one step further.
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And sooner or later, businesses are going to be doing this.
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And the more you read, as you mentioned, the medical profession, how they're
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adopting it, you know,
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how retailers are adopting it and so on.
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So I think we're getting used to it.
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And that's all I'm saying is that we're not learning, we're not repelling it
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anymore.
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We're getting comfortable with it.
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Now, I've got to qualify it.
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That doesn't mean that AI shares.
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then videos and that are going to run away.
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Okay, this is the second part of the AI revolution.
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Number one, what it is and how we use it.
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We haven't even spoken about monetization and energy needs and all that sort of
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thing, which is still very pertinent.
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But the second one is, of course, AI shares.
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The proliferation of them, David, and we'll come to that.
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But the original ones, the ones like NVIDIA.
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Where was NVIDIA five years ago, for example?
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Oh, I don't...
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It was nowhere.
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50 cents, $1, something like that?
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In relative today, yes.
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Yes.
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It started to run in
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2021 during COVID when its GNUs or its chips were
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used for gaming mainly.
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And subsequent to that, you know, that's when it took off.
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And not only did it take off, but it fell dramatically.
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And it was only...
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with the release of ChatGPT that, you know,
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one realized that it was going to be the leading chip or the chip that everybody
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used.
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So, I mean, this is a company that's only kind of really run over the last couple of
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years,
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but it shows you the speed at which AI is developing.
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But, Lindsay, there's going to be a period of digestion and that's, you know, that's
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what I'm saying.
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Yes, It doesn't mean because...
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I think AI is going to become adopted and more businesses are going to use it,
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that we're going to suddenly see Microsoft and Amazon and all of those just have
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another surge.
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That will come later.
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I think we're going to go into a period of downrating,
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derating.
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That doesn't mean the share is going to fall, but it's not going to keep pace with
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the increase in its profits.
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So that is a derating.
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And then they'll come down.
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Probably towards the end of the year where people will say, look, this is looking
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fairly good, well-valued.
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But that doesn't mean I'm going to sell it.
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I just think that a lot of these stocks, you know, as rates go down,
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which is another theme in the U.S.
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pushed by Mr.
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Trump, I think you're going to see people spending a bit more,
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going to see a bit more economic growth, a lot more comfort and so on.
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And, you know, attention will turn elsewhere.
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Would you say that certain of the AI stocks, certain of the stocks that are
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associated with this extraordinary new asset class
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and phenomenon that we all use every day, even if we don't know we're using it,
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we're using it.
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Do you think that there's any stocks that say could be a Microsoft?
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In other words, you bought Microsoft early if you were lucky or you bought Apple
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early if you were lucky,
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but you've still got them even if you bought them 10 years after.
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they really started to become a household name.
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You've still got Microsoft and you've still got
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Apple. Do you think that there are any stocks that are just AI-focused that fall
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into that category?
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I'm looking.
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And I just had a conversation, as I say, with a young colleague of mine, and I
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reminded him.
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I said to him,
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we are not running a Cathie Wood fund.
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We can't take risks with… client money.
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If we're going to buy or stay with a company,
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we've got to be assured that it can continue to grow, can continue to prosper,
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that it's dominant.
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We can't buy those businesses that we know very little about.
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They might sound very intriguing.
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The headlines might commend them for the new chips they're producing or for the new
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product,
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but it takes time before you can get comfortable with an investment.
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And I'm not...
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For traders, for the, what do you call it, the Robin Hoods of this world, you know,
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those, I mean, chaps, you know,
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who want to go and find the next big thing.
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Yes, there's going to be a lot of trading.
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There always is, Lindsay, but we can't do it in the position that we're in.
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You know, I'm handling pension money.
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I don't, it's not pension funds, but it's people's savings and these people have
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worked hard for it.
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So I've got to respect it.
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And that's why I'm saying don't, I can't, I can't go there.
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hundreds of companies coming on.
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Even if you look into NASDAQ or you go into
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Hong Kong and you see the number of companies that are coming in on a daily
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basis, we know very little about them.
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You know, they've all come from zero and they're making a lot of money and so on.
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But, but, Lindsay, it's, you know, you've got to be very careful about.
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how you treat other people's savings.
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It's nothing like the dot-com bubble, but I mean, the theory behind it is like it.
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In other words, dot-com wasn't a set of companies that were guaranteed to make
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money.
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Of course, some did, but they changed the way of doing business as they evolved.
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But AI is a proper business and a proper phenomenon, and it's going to continue
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going.
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But there is a last-minute dot-com feel to some of the companies that...
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I see flashing across my screen every day I've got a particular company that I use
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for for data and it's also got another
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side to it where it says here's three new AI stocks that we think have got 50%
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upside between now and the end of the year and it's every single day there's new ones
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coming up so you've got to you've got to
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as the old English saying it says separate the wheat from the chaff and yeah
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I don't think you've got time to do that, David.
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I mean, you're too busy, aren't you?
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No, no, no, no.
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I haven't got time to.
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We look at those.
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I like to read the headlines.
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I like to read about them.
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But certainly, you know, our industry is like that.
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It's all about making money.
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Lindsay, I read 1929.
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I've actually recommended it to you.
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When I finished it, yeah, the first part was great.
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the second point part slowed down a bit.
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But I think what intrigued me was just how involved people were,
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the power of the bankers, the power of the brokers,
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how they put these pools together and manipulated markets.
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They put pools together, gave it to a certain trader.
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He would spread stories.
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I mean, you can't believe it's an absolutely intriguing book in terms of
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what they did.
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Thank goodness It kind of still happens in a small way,
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but not in the overt kind of way that it did in 1929.
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So you've got to be very careful of markets and what people say.
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There's a huge lot of those pools around, you know, where chaps are stock pushers.
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These are the best three companies to have.
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You know, they're all trying to sell something to you.
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They want you to buy into their research.
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You know, they'll send you a headline like, you know, to tease you.
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And say, if you want to know these three stocks, give me $10 a month or so on.
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So you've got to do your own research.
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You've got to be astute.
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Okay.
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But what we do gather from your comments at the opening of your Outlook 2026 is
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that
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stay with AI, but don't expect the same sort of returns that we've enjoyed for the
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last couple of years.
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Is that more or less the summary?
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Absolutely right.
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Absolutely right.
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That doesn't mean you're going to lose money, you know, but I'm saying don't.
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You can't expect that.
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You know, I'm going to just pop in and say you can't say that for the gold market
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either or the platinum market or the silver market.
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Don't expect gold, you know, gold to go to 800 or 8,000 or something like that, you
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know.
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Just be careful.
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That's why I say when markets run like that, there's always a danger of some kind
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of pullback or correction.
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I'm more comfortable in AI.
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But I think I'm intrigued by the kind of run they've had.
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But when you go in at these levels, you know that a lot of money has already been
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made.
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So you're probably closer to… Over the relatively thin holiday trading period,
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David, silver one morning, I saw it,
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went to $82 per ounce.
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Yeah, I know.
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And then by the end of the afternoon, New York time… It was 71, for goodness sake.
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I mean, this is a massive, massive move.
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I mean, it's 15% in a day, swing in a day or something, maybe even more.
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I don't know.
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But anyway, silver is very, very dangerous.
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Yeah.
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You know what?
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I want to get into a ring with a cocker spaniel, a friendly little dog that I can
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pet.
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I don't want to get into a ring with the bloom and rot violets or something like
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that because they're going to chew me.
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What I'm trying to say is I'm not going to try to trade the silver market.
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I'm not trading the platinum market.
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I'm not going to trade any of those because those tips are far, far smarter
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than I am.
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And with a lot more money, with a lot more savvy,
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I'd rather go into kind of the markets that I'm a little more comfortable with.
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Platinum's an amazing story.
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We'll come to commodities later on.
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But platinum has just gone through the roof since we last spoke.
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You have a whole paragraph on the Federal Reserve.
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You say the Fed faces crucial choices.
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Well, of course it does.
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It always faces crucial choices.
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That's not new stuff, David.
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But the difference is now is the plant of Trump, the Trump plant,
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whoever it may be as Fed chair, and also the differing ways that the U.S.
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economy is performing.
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On the one hand, if you believe the numbers,
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and these numbers are a little bit unreliable because of the government
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lockdown,
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but the first number for GDP after the government shutdown was
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4.3%.
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People were expecting 3%.
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No.
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That's to me, there's a little bit of fiddling going on there or rather
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imperfect data collection.
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The other thing is, OK, let's say that the economy is doing a little bit better.
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The fact is the employment market is not doing better.
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So you've got on the one hand employment under pressure and the unemployment rate
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quite high,
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I think at a four year high.
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And yet the economy itself measured by gross domestic product.
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is doing well.
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I don't know.
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Inflation under control.
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Difficult for the Fed.
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You know what it exposes?
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We don't really know what's going on, Lindsay.
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Nobody knows.
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And that's why, because no one can give you a clear explanation of what they're
15:10
seeing.
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and what lies ahead.
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And that scares me.
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And even if you look at the Fed at the moment, I know there's a lot of political
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influence,
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but it's never been split as far as it is at the moment.
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Or I can't go in history because I haven't got those records.
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But where you haven't got almost unanimous decisions.
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Some say you should stay where you are.
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Others, you should cut.
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You you should cut 25 points, you should cut 50 points.
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So you can understand that if the data was so easy to read and was clear,
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people wouldn't be making those different decisions.
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They might have different views.
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But I think things are very, very difficult.
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I don't think we've come out of COVID yet.
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I don't think anybody's got a grasp of what that did to the global economy over
16:02
and above
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the politics that followed.
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I don't think we fully grasp what this has done to the world economy.
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And now...
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Bringing it back to Mr. Trump's political policies now and his
16:17
Dunrow doctrine.
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All of these things are changing that.
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And I think making it more and more difficult to understand where the global
16:28
economy is heading.
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It's very difficult.
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It is very difficult.
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And we'll come to Trump.
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This is a political interference like we've never, ever seen before from someone
16:40
who is so important.
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It just staggers me that someone so mediocre could wield such power.
16:46
But anyway, you talk about diversification options.
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You're not a great diversifier.
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You don't like to diversify.
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You like to stick with something and just run with it.
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And if it doesn't do well, then you find something that does.
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Not to say that you've got all your eggs in one basket, but you do talk about
17:02
China, Europe,
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and emerging markets as a diversification to your U.S.
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portfolio.
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Do you like any of them?
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I'm saying if you want to, what are your options?
17:14
I've kind of missed the Chinese explosion in AI as we've seen today, even today.
17:21
Although I have been a follower of TSMC, of TSM.
17:27
And I've liked the nice person process simply because of their exposure to
17:33
Tencent. And also,
17:35
I do recognize that that's a big market.
17:37
am I going to go for full tilt into it and get rid of some of the American stocks in
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favor of
17:44
China? No.
17:46
But I think it's that one area that is attractive in terms of
17:53
outside of the US.
17:56
In Asia, you know my stock.
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I mean, sorry, in Europe.
17:58
I see ASML is up strongly today.
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I still think people are now finally recognizing the quality of this business.
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I still like companies around that.
18:12
I still like the, what do you call it,
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the factories going automatic, robotic.
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I'm trying to think of the right words.
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Those themes, even in Europe, I can still go along with.
18:28
But Europe per se, I think is, I don't know where it's going.
18:34
I still think that structurally...
18:37
It's far behind the US and I can say the same for the UK as well.
18:43
And from that point of view, when people say, oh, you've got to buy Europe,
18:48
Europe's cheaper.
18:50
I say, fine, okay, but where?
18:51
And listen, Europe did brilliantly last year.
18:54
And a lot of it was that money did flow out of the dollar,
18:57
it flowed into banks and it flowed into certain other businesses.
19:01
The euro did pretty well as well.
19:03
but it's absolutely I don't find it sustainable.
19:05
It was much more of a portfolio shift rather than anything that I can continue
19:11
to support.
19:13
So, you know, from that point of view,
19:16
I still think America is far more reliable and sustainable than any of the other
19:21
economies.
19:23
I mean, even the JSC did brilliantly.
19:23
Why?
19:24
Because of a couple of gold stocks and platinum stocks and, you know, the NASPERS
19:30
process, a handful of stocks.
19:32
And also the RAND improved dramatically because of dollar weakness, which I think
19:37
in dollar terms,
19:39
the JSC was up like 50%, 58%.
19:40
It's a perfect situation for the JSC.
19:42
You've got a commodity cycle that is in its favor.
19:45
In other words, oil prices are not right.
19:47
Oil is not $100 a barrel.
19:49
Oil is messing around 55 to 65 and has been for so long now, despite all the
19:56
geopolitical tensions.
19:58
And you've got the precious metals.
20:00
And the bulk metal, sorry, the bulk commodities as well doing well.
20:02
And also, don't forget the internal story in South Africa, David, the load shedding.
20:09
It's completely gone.
20:10
And also, Chancenet getting itself together, it's still a shambles,
20:15
but it's less of a shambles than it was.
20:20
Look at this platinum price.
20:21
It's like $2,300 per ounce.
20:24
It's astonishing.
20:25
Wasn't it $750 or something?
20:26
Remember last time we got there?
20:28
Do you remember when our friend, what's his name, Wayne McCurry,
20:32
Wayne McCurry has been waiting for this run for years and years and years.
20:35
He retires.
20:36
That's it.
20:37
Up goes the platinum price.
20:38
Poor Wayne.
20:41
But the problem is that you know what happened in the aftermath of when we last
20:47
hit this, you know,
20:49
came all the way back to 900 odd.
20:50
And this is not driven by industrial demand.
20:53
This is just driven by a move out of the dollar looking for something,
20:57
somewhere to hide your money or to warehouse your money in the wake of
21:03
worries about the US dollar.
21:05
So that's always a problem.
21:06
And, you know, we've seen it in Bitcoin.
21:11
With Bitcoin, when Trump was talking about it,
21:14
everybody ran this price up to $127,000 every second interview on the business
21:21
channels with
21:23
somebody around the reason to be buying cryptocurrency.
21:26
And then it falls apart.
21:28
Not falls apart.
21:29
People stop caring.
21:30
Go down into the low 80s.
21:31
It's now in the low 90s. It's just below 93,000.
21:34
But to me, if you look at the graphs of this, David, and we're both amateur
21:40
graphists, it looks terrible.
21:42
Of course.
21:44
It looks horrible.
21:46
There's a head and shoulders on this Bitcoin.
21:48
It's just forming.
21:50
The right shoulder's forming.
21:52
It might form for another month or so.
21:54
This thing, to me, is going down.
21:56
And I don't want it to go down because it'll hurt a lot of people.
21:58
The one person I do want to hurt doesn't really care too much about being hurt in
22:01
this one particular thing because all he
22:03
needs to do is invade another country and make some money like that.
22:05
But that's exactly
22:08
Okay. So people get bored and then they quietly there's a quiet exodus
22:15
from it because it needs to be fed all the time.
22:19
you know if you don't feed it then it starts to cost you and that's my big worry
22:24
with
22:26
with assets like gold and platinum at the moment, and Bitcoin is that,
22:30
and I've lived through that many times where when the people start to get bored,
22:34
then yeah,
22:34
they drift away and the price starts to get, you know, goes down all the time.
22:39
And the poor people who are enticed to buy it at these kind of levels, they're the
22:44
ones who lose out.
22:46
You know, I keep telling you that when you buy in my,
22:49
one of the first lessons I learned on the JSC is that when you buy,
22:56
When you're buying a boom, it takes another boom to get your money back.
23:05
What does that mean then?
23:06
Let me just pick you up on that then.
23:08
If somebody comes to you and says, OK, I've got 10 million, David, I've had a
23:11
good year.
23:12
Let's have a look at AI, shall we?
23:14
What do you say to them?
23:15
You're buying in a boom.
23:17
And so it's going to take the next boom for you to get your money back.
23:19
Or do you say we can't be out of it?
23:22
Well, I'm mainly talking gold.
23:22
What do you say?
23:23
No, I'm talking about AI because that's been a boom.
23:25
Don't say that gold is a boom and AI is not a boom because that's you being
23:31
selectively boomist.
23:33
I have to say that you must clarify this to your devoted listenership and say,
23:40
if somebody gave you a substantial sum of money, would you say, It's a little bit
23:46
too rich at the moment,
23:48
or would you say we can't afford to be out of it?
23:50
A bit of both.
23:53
I would still continue to buy shares.
23:56
The difficulty, what you are saying to me is the difficulty or the conundrum that we
24:02
find ourselves in is that,
24:04
or the dilemma that we find ourselves in, is that for the clients that we've been
24:09
talking to for the last few years, yes,
24:11
they're doing very well and we're saying stay in.
24:12
But as more money comes in now, You are faced with that problem.
24:16
And I think that people expect instantaneous gratification.
24:20
You know, they think that this is just a one-way traffic.
24:25
And it's very difficult to look at new money at the moment.
24:29
You know, it's nice to increase people's portfolios,
24:33
but I must admit that you've got to be very careful about how you position
24:39
portfolios at the moment.
24:41
I'm okay.
24:43
I said it, you know, as I said, I think by the end of the year, I think we'll see AI
24:47
shares moving up again.
24:49
And Lindsay, okay, I've got to take another step back.
24:50
Yeah.
24:51
The big problem is that we set the bar, or not we set the bar,
24:57
is that clients kind of set the bar high.
25:02
Even if you look at the S&P, I think it was up something like 18% or so.
25:06
I mean, that's extraordinary.
25:09
It's an incredible game.
25:12
If you think of that, your 10-year bond is 4%, inflation 3%.
25:17
I mean, whatever measure you want to use.
25:20
But 4% is what you would get on the well, I don't know if it's still AAA now.
25:26
I don't know whether the U.S.
25:27
debt is AAA, but whatever it is, it's still very highly rated.
25:30
It's not actually AAA.
25:32
It came down a notch.
25:33
But anyway, that's just an aside.
25:37
Yeah.
25:38
So 4%, I mean, 4% and you're getting 18%, that's four times.
25:45
So I'm happy if we get on an annual basis.
25:49
And to be honest, when I look at portfolios, if we've done over the last
25:55
10, 15 years,
25:57
double digit in dollars, I mean, that's brilliant.
25:58
That really is good.
26:00
So that's the thing is that we set our, we set the, you know, this is what we go for.
26:07
uh we don't go for 18s and 20 percent and that's really on that basis yes you can
26:14
buy the market you
26:16
can buy a certain quality you know certain quality shares you will get those returns
26:20
uh over the
26:22
next few years let's talk about secular themes lifestyle changes now this is very
26:26
interesting because you said we
26:28
still haven't got over covid now covid changed changed the way we do things it
26:32
changed the way i've done things
26:34
i hardly go out anymore david i got into the habit of not going out.
26:36
Yeah.
26:36
And then even I stopped drinking.
26:39
And this is the one that you haven't mentioned in Outlook 2026,
26:43
is peak alcohol because more people oh, did you?
26:46
I showed you how well I drink.
26:48
Yeah.
26:49
I mean, it's only a one-liner.
26:51
People drink less or people either have stopped drinking or they drink much less.
26:57
And are the companies like Diageo, for example, are they the new tobacco
27:04
companies, for example?
27:06
Yes.
27:08
What do you think?
27:10
Because this is a massive, massive trend.
27:12
Yes, I think.
27:14
And you know what's also adding to that is the weight loss drugs.
27:16
It's taking that appetite away as well.
27:18
People are certainly, it's another big theme that's going to catch on.
27:20
But I think, yeah, I said we shop online, drink less, chat on WhatsApp,
27:26
and work at home in sweatpants kind of thing, yeah.
27:30
And we don't go to theatre anymore.
27:31
We don't go out to eat and so on.
27:34
And that is, Lindsay, you're absolutely right.
27:37
And I think that in many cases people, you know, they've got takeouts.
27:43
It's Uber or if they do go out, it's to a casual restaurant.
27:49
I don't know what fine dining is like.
27:51
I'm sure you still have a class of people that go there.
27:54
But overall, the way that we conduct our lives is completely.
27:59
Lindsay, you know, I used to.
28:01
I can't tell you how many suits I used to have in my cupboards, how many pairs of
28:05
black.
28:05
Oh, you were natural.
28:07
Yeah, I know.
28:08
And smart shirts that I used to get from, what's the place,
28:13
Hilditch and Key in German Street, you know, those.
28:18
I thought you used to go to the sales in New York when you used to get Hugo Boss
28:22
clothes.
28:22
There was second year.
28:26
I'd go to Brooks Brothers or to all of those companies and try to get the.
28:30
the sales, you know, and, but I don't even go there anymore.
28:34
You know, that's gone.
28:36
So we've changed dramatically.
28:39
I was just thinking about the other way that they change.
28:41
I mean, for example, you said fine dining.
28:44
I went out for a meal the other day and it turned out to be, they were, they were,
28:50
they said, look,
28:52
we still got our Christmas menu on and it's a seven course meal.
28:53
And there's three amuse-bouche at the start.
28:55
So essentially it was a 10 course meal.
28:58
And this is the price.
28:59
And I thought, you know what?
29:00
I haven't been out for dinner for two years.
29:02
I mean, a proper dinner.
29:04
So I thought, okay, let's do it.
29:05
I sat there for three and a half hours, David.
29:08
I was bored out of my mind sitting there.
29:09
I can imagine.
29:11
I was.
29:11
I wasn't bored with the company.
29:14
I just didn't want to sit there for three and a half hours.
29:17
The other thing is, which I find astonishing, is I loved going to the
29:21
cinema.
29:21
I used to live next door to a cinema, and I would go on a certain time when I knew
29:27
there would be fewer people.
29:29
I don't like queuing, I don't like people eating popcorn, I don't like phones going
29:33
off, so go where there was nobody there.
29:35
But now I know that if I went to the cinema, I'd find myself reaching for the
29:40
remote to stop it so I could go and take a walk
29:42
around and do something.
29:44
With a film, you have to sit there for the whole two to two and a half hours.
29:46
I couldn't do it anymore, David.
29:48
Streaming has killed it for me.
29:50
Yeah, I haven't been...
29:53
I can't remember the last time I went to a movie.
29:56
I can't.
29:57
You know, the movie house, not at all.
29:59
So you take your children there, I think kids, because it's an outing.
30:03
But I haven't got I wouldn't even sit through one of those with my grandkids.
30:07
I'd go mad.
30:08
But you did and also, you know, you're right.
30:10
I can't stand those three-hour dinners.
30:13
In fact, if I am going to go out with people, I prefer lunch.
30:17
You know, I prefer to go to lunch because you're in control.
30:20
It doesn't last the whole evening.
30:23
You've got to have your excuses.
30:24
That's what I always have.
30:25
Lunchtime excuses, I'm sorry, I've got a podcast.
30:27
Evening excuses, I'm sorry, I'm very tired.
30:32
I want to go to bed.
30:32
Excuse me.
30:33
You've always got to have a Rolodex in your mind of excuses.
30:36
I'm the best at that.
30:38
But you've just seen what we see.
30:40
You're telling me how things have changed.
30:42
You're dead right.
30:43
They really have.
30:43
Yeah.
30:44
That's why you can't...
30:47
fall back on legacy companies.
30:49
You can't fall back on Diageo or Brown and Foreman and all those liquor companies or
30:55
anything like that.
30:57
And I'm going to say the same thing about the Procter & Gamble and those kind of
31:02
businesses.
31:02
And that's why, you know, what was featured quite prominently over the last
31:09
week or so was Costco talking
31:11
about what an incredible company it is.
31:12
You know, why?
31:13
Because of what it offers.
31:16
I think those are the businesses that are going to benefit and survive.
31:21
Walmart and that, who make their own in-house brands, because people are not as
31:27
particular as they were, you know.
31:29
You don't need Procter & Gamble.
31:32
Who makes the nappies?
31:33
I'm trying to think, whoever it is, you know, so on.
31:37
No, it is Procter & Gamble makes the nappies, I'm sure.
31:43
It's not.
31:44
Pampers or whatever they are, who knows.
31:45
but um You know,
31:47
you'll just go for an in-store one or you don't need to go for those brands that we
31:54
were so particular about.
31:56
Some of them might last, like Coca-Cola.
31:57
You're not going to go for Dixie Cola or something else like this.
31:59
But, I mean, by and large,
32:03
people are just much more conscious of their wallets than they were.
32:08
And that's the other thing.
32:10
And the other point of this, you cannot believe.
32:14
And, Lindsay, I'm not in this trend.
32:16
of
32:17
Instagram, you cannot believe how many young people I talk to who live their
32:24
lives by Instagram.
32:25
And when I say live their life, I mean, it will influence where they go eat.
32:30
It will influence whatever, you know, I saw this on Instagram, or what stores to
32:37
visit, what makeup to buy,
32:39
and so on.
32:41
And, you know, the old days of advertising on TV are gone.
32:43
And this is, you get these influences.
32:45
So that's why I'm saying you have to be very careful if you're going to say, I'm
32:52
not going AI, I'm going to go to old-fashioned stocks.
32:54
Well, you've got to be very careful as well, because they carry as many risks as
32:58
perhaps AI.
33:00
Talking about old-fashioned stocks and talking about influencers, I spoke to an
33:05
influencer just before Christmas, an influencer,
33:07
not self-appointed influencer, but to my mind is so, because of his very, very...
33:12
He keenly put together a compelling argument for South Africa Inc.
33:18
in 2026.
33:20
It's already started, maybe 10% up for certain stocks that he was referencing,
33:27
and he's saying another 40%
33:29
to 50%.
33:31
And he gave me all the technicalities.
33:33
He wasn't going, well, South Africa's going to do this, South Africa's going to
33:34
do that, although he did touch on that.
33:36
He went through the mathematics and the statistics of the last time they did it,
33:40
And these stars have...
33:42
aligned again, David.
33:44
You're not a person that would consider yourself a disciple of this theory.
33:49
No.
33:53
I broke down South Africa and there's nothing there
33:59
that really excites me.
34:01
In fact, I'm actually writing an article now in response to a question that was
34:07
asked of
34:09
me in an interview.
34:11
You know, and the question was, where are the titans?
34:13
Where are the titans of yesteryear?
34:15
In fact, if you look, I did send you something on South Africa.
34:20
And it was a very brief, because I needed to write something like this.
34:25
And I went into this and I said, you know, where are Sol Kersner, who was an
34:31
international figure,
34:33
Sun International, and Donnie Gordon with Liberty, even Raymond Ackerman, even
34:38
though he has fallen from grace.
34:40
I mean, he was a pioneer, Brian Joffe, who put a lot of underperforming companies
34:44
into
34:46
BitVest, you know, GT Ferreira, Paul Harris, Laurie Dippenau were first.
34:51
And to a certain extent, Jeremy, what's his name from Dimension?
34:54
Oh, Jeremy Ord.
34:55
Yes.
34:55
From Dimension Data. Yeah, look, they started businesses.
35:00
And the point that I'm trying to make is that they had a very strong voice in
35:07
business and gave us a lot of pride.
35:09
and a lot of confidence.
35:09
So, and I started looking and I said, well, what went wrong?
35:14
You know, what's, who are they?
35:18
When asked the questions, I said, to be honest, there's no one.
35:21
And I put it down to three areas.
35:25
Which I had to think about.
35:26
The first is that, yes, we were a little arrogant.
35:29
Those titans.
35:30
In fact, when exchange control was lifted here in 1994 and those companies could go
35:37
overseas, they made a mess of it.
35:39
They were far too arrogant in terms of their...
35:43
They had functioned in a cut economy, in a closed economy.
35:47
And they thought that they could conquer the rest of the world.
35:51
and for the rest of the world, conquer them.
35:55
So that was one thing.
35:56
I think we lost a lot of confidence.
35:58
We've seen it from everything from David Jones, I mean, from Woolworths to you name
36:04
the companies to all our construction companies.
36:06
I think that did a lot of damage to our name.
36:07
I think the other was
36:09
BE. There's no doubt that putting those impositions on companies has taken a lot
36:16
away
36:16
and taken a lot of the desire and ambition away.
36:19
And the third is we're not in tech.
36:21
this is a country that's Got no exposure to tech.
36:25
I just summarized those in three sentences, but I think when you think
36:32
about it, and that's why when I analyze South Africa today,
36:34
in fact, in another tongue-in-cheek article I've written, is that asking what
36:40
to buy and what to sell, I said,
36:42
tell Investec, buy Pepco. Why?
36:45
Because Investec is not what it used to be.
36:49
The South African market has gone down market.
36:51
That's where we are.
36:53
We're selling cheap goods.
36:55
We're not the companies of the titans.
36:58
It's like saying you would We're just counters.
37:02
Instead of going to Selfridges, you're going online now and going to Timu, that
37:08
sort of thing.
37:08
Yes, exactly.
37:09
That's who we are as a country.
37:12
We haven't got to sell fridges anymore.
37:14
No, but you know what I mean.
37:15
It's the comparison between going to a smart shop to getting into something which
37:21
is, quite frankly,
37:23
substandard.
37:25
But I disagree with you, and I will tell you why.
37:27
A government of national unity, it's holding.
37:27
I mean, it's not a match made in heaven, but it's holding.
37:31
Transnet, we already mentioned that.
37:32
It's still a disaster.
37:34
You still can't get a train anywhere.
37:35
And if you do get the train, the crime on commuter trains is simply appalling.
37:42
But when it comes to transporting goods from the mine to the port, it's got
37:48
better.
37:50
Load shedding, thing of the past at the moment anyway, and long may it stay that
37:53
way.
37:55
What else have we got?
37:56
We've got an interest rate cycle, which is a lowering cycle because inflation is
38:03
under control.
38:05
The RAND is strong.
38:07
It's not 20.
38:09
It's 16.5.
38:11
It's less than 16.50.
38:13
The bond market, the 10-year has gone from over 11%.
38:15
So you're pushing 8%, which is a massive return.
38:15
This is like equity market returns, David.
38:17
There must be more.
38:19
We're in a full-blown commodity cycle.
38:21
I can see flashing in front of me on my screen Brent crude oil.
38:25
Okay, it's up a percent today, but Brent crude oil is only $61 a barrel.
38:29
It's not $100 a barrel, as I said earlier on.
38:31
We've got gold price up 2.3% to $44.30.
38:35
We've got silver at $76.50, up 5.3%.
38:39
We've got copper up 4.1%.
38:40
percent to nearly $6 a pound, $12,000 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange.
38:47
Platinum and palladium roaring.
38:50
I'm sorry, until those things break, David, I'm like you, until it stops,
38:55
then you've got to stay with South Africa.
38:58
But be ready to get out when it does stop.
39:01
I'm not going to argue with you.
39:04
I think all those arguments are wrong.
39:08
You don't need it though, do you?
39:09
This is the point you're not making here.
39:11
It's the opportunity cost of saying, right, we must be in South Africa.
39:15
Why?
39:16
My portfolios are doing very well elsewhere.
39:18
Thank you very much.
39:19
So you must make that point as well, I think, which you haven't.
39:22
Am I being rude?
39:23
I think so.
39:24
No.
39:25
I think that's exactly.
39:28
I'm saying, well, what businesses should I buy?
39:31
Give me 10 businesses.
39:34
and my whole point is that that's why I'm saying if...
39:37
The growth of this business, when you look at what I'm saying,
39:40
is that it's down at the lower end of the market.
39:44
That's where the kind of growth is.
39:46
There's nothing at the high.
39:47
There is no investment in South Africa.
39:50
We're not seeing that promised investment in building the infrastructure here that
39:57
we can
39:57
actually benefit from all the points that you've made.
40:02
That's my whole point.
40:04
Okay.
40:05
I'm not arguing with the broad picture that you paint.
40:09
You know, the government and national unity has steadied things.
40:12
Interest rates are coming down.
40:13
I've always had high respect for our Reserve Bank and also for the Treasury.
40:18
And the one area that I did say that I was going into that I would have gone into,
40:23
and I've always said it has been the long end of the market,
40:26
and even property trusts are now or REITs are starting to look attractive because
40:32
the worst is over.
40:34
This is not a sustainable economy that can compete with the rest of the world.
40:39
No, but we're not talking about competition.
40:41
Unemployment is still ridiculously high.
40:44
We're not seeing any impact on that at all.
40:48
People are still unemployed.
40:49
They're still on the street corners.
40:51
The potholes are not being attended to.
40:54
You know, the whole it's steadied.
41:00
Someone who looks at the platinum price in New York or in Frankfurt or in London
41:06
doesn't say, well, wait a second,
41:08
let me look at the potholes in Johannesburg.
41:10
They're looking at the price of Valterra.
41:12
They're looking at the price of Impala, platinum, at Northam's, etc.
41:15
They don't care about the socioeconomic demise of South Africa.
41:20
They don't care that youth unemployment is 50%.
41:23
They should do, but they don't.
41:25
And that is the thing.
41:26
I'm talking about making money from the stock market.
41:29
and in isolation now.
41:31
And I do think that South Africa has every single factor in its favour.
41:36
And when it turns, it'll turn nastily.
41:39
But for now, this cycle could go on for a couple of years.
41:42
Yeah.
41:42
No, I don't know about a couple of years, but it could go on.
41:48
I wouldn't, I'm not going to stop people buying South Africa.
41:53
I'm not going to do that.
41:55
But if I'm going to shift money,
41:58
I must be absolutely sure that it's going to be able to compete with the other
42:05
businesses that I'm looking at,
42:07
not on a short-term basis.
42:09
And I think our market has been very, at the moment, you know, is very short-term.
42:15
Listen, retailers had a torrid year last year.
42:20
And, you know, the Mr.
42:21
Prices, the Fashinis, companies like that, they were wiped out.
42:25
There's a very good chance they could turn.
42:27
Yes.
42:28
You know, as things steady and turn in a very sharp way.
42:31
I'm not going to challenge that at all.
42:34
So if you are a value investor, yes, I'm sure you can find very good pickings here.
42:40
Good.
42:40
Okay, but it's not for you, but you don't doubt that there could be some more
42:46
upside.
42:48
Okay, let's leave South Africa at that.
42:50
And how do people get hold of your outlook?
42:52
Can they contact you and you'll send it to them or is it on a website?
42:55
We're a pleasure, yeah.
42:56
Where is it?
42:57
No, I haven't published it.
42:59
I sent it to you as a friend and said, look, this is my outlook.
43:03
I'm still discussing it with some of my friends, but I'm very happy to discuss it
43:07
with anybody.
43:07
Oh, I didn't ask you that.
43:08
So I've put out a few spoilers there, but it doesn't matter.
43:11
No, no, no, not at all.
43:13
I would discuss this openly.
43:15
I'm saying that I sat down in early January, I mean in early December.
43:20
I said, okay, these are the points that I have to consider.
43:23
You know, these are the points.
43:24
I actually put a list of 30 shares.
43:27
And as I explained, I couldn't take risks.
43:30
I had to be very careful about them.
43:33
But they all, you know, they fit in with what my thought process is.
43:38
I think it's going to be a good year.
43:40
I don't think by good year, I mean it's going to be a positive year and that we
43:46
will edge forward.
43:48
So I think a lot of talk about recessions, a lot of talk about inflation are going to
43:53
fall apart.
43:55
We've still got a lot to negotiate and I mean, you know, how do you absorb what Mr
44:00
Trump did over the weekend?
44:02
Do you know what I mean?
44:04
How do you build this in?
44:06
How do you build it in for a Well, you have a look at what's happened to the
44:10
market and so it doesn't mean a thing, just like everything else.
44:12
There wasn't even a blip.
44:14
I mean, the market wasn't open, first of all.
44:16
But there wasn't even a blip, David.
44:18
I know.
44:20
And you've got to look at the energy shares.
44:22
Chevron, Halliburton, all of those are going to benefit from...
44:24
from Mr.
44:26
Trump, who's going to make friends with him and go down to Venezuela and share the
44:27
spoils.
44:28
They're all up dramatically.
44:29
We haven't opened yet.
44:33
The other thing we have to talk about with Trump is that he's like a child, and he
44:39
said, oh, I've done it once, I'm going to do it again.
44:41
And that's exactly what he said on Fox & Friends this morning.
44:43
He said, when he was on Air Force One, flying back from yet another weekend at
44:48
Mar-a-Lago,
44:50
I think it's now up to 85 million.
44:52
that it's cost the taxpayer with his flights to and from Washington.
44:56
But anyway, that's an aside.
44:57
It's up to him.
45:01
He said, when asked about Colombia, he said.
45:06
Almost word for word is what I'm going to say now.
45:08
I said, Columbia is sick.
45:10
Columbia is run by a very sick man.
45:12
He likes to make cocaine and he likes to sell it to America.
45:15
And then the person said, are you considering taking action, military action
45:21
against Columbia?
45:23
He said, sounds good to me.
45:25
He said, sounds good to me.
45:26
Those were his words.
45:27
So he's now saying, he said, nobody can stop us, he said on Fox and Friends.
45:32
Nobody can stop us.
45:33
It's like it's some little game.
45:35
It's like it's gladiators on TV or something.
45:38
He's unbelievable.
45:39
He gets up in the morning and says, right, let me phone up Higgsith or one of the
45:46
generals, General Raising Cane,
45:48
and say how long before we can have a go at
45:50
Columbia? Because it diverts people from the Epstein files and the cost of living
45:56
and everything.
45:58
Most extraordinary time over the last few days, David.
46:01
but No one's standing up to him.
46:03
And what happens is that no one stands up to him.
46:07
The irony is that he gets criticism from China, he gets criticism from North Korea,
46:14
he gets criticism from
46:16
Putin. I mean, you know, who've done exactly the same kind of thing or have the
46:20
same kind of aspirations.
46:22
But that America should be doing this in the way that they conduct it.
46:25
The frightening thing is the efficiency, and that's what's scaring nations, is the
46:30
efficiency with...
46:32
Which they did it.
46:34
Well, it took them months to work to do it.
46:36
Oh, yeah.
46:38
It's been planning.
46:40
I mean, Trump gets the idea and says, why don't we do this?
46:42
And then it's the people behind the scenes.
46:44
Yes, it is.
46:46
Well, of course, it's a trillion-dollar industry, the U.S.
46:48
defense industry.
46:50
Certainly they should be able to take out some tin pot dictator in a country that's
46:51
got a tiny influence on the world
46:53
economy.
46:55
It's nothing.
46:57
There's a couple of blokes with lots of medals on their chest and some pop guns.
46:59
They're not going to be a match for a whole fleet of Chinooks and things.
47:01
The one thing about Venezuela is they used to produce the largest number of, not the
47:07
largest number,
47:09
but the biggest number of Miss Worlds.
47:09
Miss Worlds.
47:10
Oh, goodness.
47:10
Yeah, I think so.
47:11
They had incredibly good, the women that came out, they were always a Miss World
47:18
from Venezuela.
47:20
That's what I remember about them.
47:22
David Shapiro, ladies and gentlemen.
47:27
David, the other thing now that we've cleared up the markets is when you do
47:33
publish that outlook,
47:35
you'll obviously let everybody know where they can find it because it warrants more
47:40
attention than a half hour
47:42
podcast.
47:44
The other thing is that politics and football are mirroring each other.
47:46
You don't, as an underling, you do not speak out against the top.
47:51
people the top man because your job will go what happened Enzo Maresca it was 48
47:58
hours
48:00
after no it was it was right after the uh Chelsea Burnley Chelsea game it was
48:05
Burnley 0 Chelsea 2 Chelsea
48:07
1 and then he went to a press conference and he said this has been the worst 48
48:12
hours of my tenure at Chelsea it's not the
48:14
fans it's not the team and then he stopped so who was it well obviously it's the
48:19
hierarchy it's the directors and the owner of Chelsea
48:21
Then he's gone.
48:23
New Year's Day, he's gone.
48:25
So he engineered that.
48:27
He knew he was going anyway.
48:29
So he made sure his package would be paid out by being sacked.
48:31
Exactly the same thing happened last night with Ruben Amarin.
48:32
He said, I'm the manager.
48:34
I'm not just the coach.
48:36
I manage everything at this football club.
48:38
And he thought to himself, if I say this, they're going to kick me out and I get my
48:42
package.
48:42
So he did it and off he goes.
48:44
It was engineered by him, certainly.
48:46
But what it does do is it says you do not.
48:49
Do not say anything against the people above you, otherwise your job is at risk.
48:54
Same as politics with Trump.
48:55
You can't say anything against Trump.
48:57
No.
49:00
It's a suicide note.
49:01
The football, you know what's happened?
49:03
It's because, in fact, my son who's with me at the moment, who's in South Africa
49:08
from Australia,
49:10
had interviewed Bowley from Chelsea. Yes.
49:13
And this has got nothing to do with football.
49:16
This is all to do with the brand.
49:19
I mean, it's got nothing to do with it.
49:21
The fans want to win.
49:22
They want to play decent soccer, but they run it like a business now, and they
49:29
manage it, and they manage the manager as well.
49:31
And that's the point.
49:32
It is.
49:33
And Man United, to be where they are at the moment, looking for another manager,
49:40
is just insane.
49:42
I mean, what they've done.
49:44
Eleven managers in 12 years since Sir Alex Ferguson left.
49:45
But how they are destroying both of those.
49:48
brands is quite remarkable.
49:51
Look, they'll never completely obliterate them, but I mean, from an international
49:57
point of view,
49:59
they just don't have the same kind of attraction swing that they used to have.
50:04
I am so sad for both of those clubs.
50:08
You know, Spurs are useless, I mean, but they don't interfere.
50:11
You know what I mean?
50:12
They just play bad football.
50:15
And Thomas Frank's trying.
50:16
They're also a company that should be achieving a lot more.
50:20
But I think that's been something that's just been characteristic of them forever.
50:25
Yeah, Spurs really are terrible, aren't they?
50:29
They are simply awful.
50:30
Anyway.
50:31
David, Arsenal, congratulations.
50:33
Six points clear in the first week in January.
50:36
I don't think they can be caught this time.
50:38
Six points.
50:39
That's two games.
50:41
I couldn't believe the Liverpool game and I couldn't believe the Man City game.
50:46
Man City should have been 4-5-0 up.
50:48
And my kids came here.
50:50
I went to fetch them from the airport, blah, blah, blah.
50:52
We were watching there and I said, oh, this is going to be easy.
50:56
And right at the end, I see it's 1-0 up.
50:58
We turn on there and we see this final goal and just look.
51:01
Poor old Pip.
51:02
I don't know.
51:03
I don't know what's gone wrong.
51:06
Those are two games in a row where they should have just walked away with it.
51:10
But anyway, listen, there's some really good football.
51:15
I must admit, exciting football because you have no idea what the outcomes are
51:20
going to be.
51:20
So I'm enjoying.
51:22
I'm enjoying the season immensely.
51:25
Yes, me too.
51:25
Simply because you can watch any game.
51:27
You can watch any game.
51:28
There's some great stuff.
51:31
There really is.
51:32
And just the Fulham goal with a minute to go last night.
51:37
That little kid, he's smaller than you, David.
51:40
And I'm not saying you're short.
51:42
I'm saying he's much smaller than you.
51:44
He's about the same weight as you.
51:45
He comes on and he just let fly from 35 yards.
51:49
Incredible.
51:49
Incredible football.
51:50
You're quite right.
51:52
David, business confidence in the United States decreased to 47.9 points in
51:58
December from 48.2 in
52:00
November. Again,
52:02
another economic data point that has come out that is going in a different direction
52:06
to GDP.
52:08
I don't know.
52:10
We'll find out.
52:12
When are the Fed meeting?
52:14
End of the month, is it?
52:16
Have they got a January meeting?
52:18
I'm sure they've got a January meeting.
52:20
Okay.
52:22
Isn't it?
52:24
No, no.
52:26
Where are we now?
52:28
I don't know.
52:30
Maybe February.
52:32
I don't know.
52:34
I don't know.
52:36
We'll find out.
52:38
We'll do some research.
52:40
I learned to ignore all of the information.
52:42
I can't digest all of it.
52:44
I don't understand it.
52:46
David, thank you very much for your time.
52:48
Happy New Year to you.
52:50
David Shapiro is from Sasson Securities, and that was Shapiro World.
52:52
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52:54
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52:56
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53:04
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