Latest / Professional Ag Marketing Podcast / (Sterile) Cattle on Feed Report | Cattle Market Talk April 17th, 2026

Transcript

(Sterile) Cattle on Feed Report | Cattle Market Talk April 17th, 2026 · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:02
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome to the Capital Club Podcast.
• 0:06
  SPEAKER_00: Your weekly breakdown of Capital Market Fundamentals, the news, and the insight in the industry.
• 0:12
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• 0:24
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• 0:32
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• 0:35
  SPEAKER_02: All right, today we've got cattle.
• 0:37
  SPEAKER_02: I've got Nick here.
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_02: We're going to talk about that.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_02: What a day slash week in this cattle market, Nick.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_02: Let's start with the sell-off that we had occur earlier on in the week, kind of like that Thursday uh specifically.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_02: What did you see moving this market throughout the week, Nick?
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I just think we got overbought there, right, Mike?
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, the the funds were buying into this thing thinking that this cash market was gonna keep moving higher, you know, that their guys are or packers were gonna continue to bid up the cattle with the supply situation.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_01: And it really just didn't happen, right?
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_01: We I mean we struggled to get to 248, 249, even last week, um, with the basis as crappy as what it was.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_01: And and the uh, you know, ironically, this year we probably we probably shook some cattle loose with where basis got to, you know, with April trading under 247 there and and cash probably in that 249 live area, 388 in the meat.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_01: So um, but futures just had a had a correct here because we we you know and basis was terrible.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_01: I mean we were negative three dollar basis, I think, at at one point in time there.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_02: So we've uh normalized ourselves basis-wise a little bit closer up front here.
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_02: That's why you think uh specifically like the April, that's why we've been targeting the futures month to kind of keep an eye on it.
• 2:01
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I think so.
• 2:01
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not sure if I'd quite refer to it as normalizing basis.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_01: I think it was just more or less, you know, the the the funds lost heart, I guess, in this market because cash didn't keep coming.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_01: And and uh, you know, we'll see how this goes again next week.
• 2:15
  SPEAKER_01: You know, the volatility this week shook some cattle loose with bases moving back to two to three dollars positive, even though even though cash cattle is relatively steady, right?
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah from last week.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_01: But um, and I've I've we read too, it's been on some planar cattle that have traded at that 249 eight area.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_01: So uh, but going into next week, we gotta see these boxes start to come up or or you know, or we're gonna stay here.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, the if we Packers aren't gonna bid for these cattle if if if boxes are gonna stay here in the low 380s.
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, could you pull up that box beef info there, Cade?
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_02: Because I think that is significant.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_02: Historically, we start to see a rally pretty significantly around what May, you would say, on choice.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it's plenty early to start seeing a rally in these boxes.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_02: Uh but at these levels, they gotta be antsy because we're already up there.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_01: Right, right.
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_01: And we you know, it does look like earlier in the year, you know, you go back a month ago, three weeks ago, we tested some areas and you know, tested that four hundred dollar level and didn't really feel like we can hold it.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_01: I think last year was the same thing.
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_01: We, you know, we tested some areas there and and couldn't hold it.
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_01: And uh, you know, I we'll have to see.
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, people are obviously um having to spend a little more on gas today, and they're and there's uh, you know, with the tensions going on and and and maybe that's already contributing to some softer beef demand.
• 3:36
  SPEAKER_01: Um it's been pretty light volume on what we have been moving, but we'll have to see.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, we're I don't think we're gonna get real concerned about it here until you know 30, 45 days from now if we can't see some rally in these boxes.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_02: It's also scary knowing that the Packers have seen now what the Greeley strike during that time uh may or may not have done to box beef margins, things like that.
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_02: Uh scary for uh what they saw, anyways, out of that, uh just showing what influence that could potentially have on the markets, Nick.
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it was really hard to see what that what impact that really had because we're just killing such few cattle the way it is.
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_01: Um and to, you know, but that was a big plant, and and certainly after they got in Gearagar again, that certainly incentivized the funds to get long, no doubt.
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_01: And that was a major contributor to the original Futures rally that brought us up ten bucks to that 252 area in April.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but yeah, we just couldn't hold it.
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_01: And I think uh I think next, you know, and then yeah, I think you're gonna talk about it too, Mike, but getting into this, you know, the the the Brooke Rollins uh speech there and and and no movement yet coming out of Mexico.
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, you know, she does have a meeting, I guess, next week, I think in Arizona, and hopefully there's more discussions on that.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, but that's that was probably, you know, uh um how we gained how we gained back the futures today, right?
• 5:04
  SPEAKER_01: Because uh we're we're not opening up that border yet.
• 5:07
  SPEAKER_02: Very much so.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_02: Uh Rollins uh was attending the groundbreaking ceremony for the sterile fly facility there in Edinburgh, Texas.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_02: Uh that was today.
• 5:17
  SPEAKER_02: And that could have been a part of yesterday's weakness too, but I found it very interesting that you got around nine four uh nine fifty-two today, to be exact.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_02: Uh the market absolutely fell apart on cattle.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_02: It was an astronomical sell-off down near limit levels, and uh that was about an hour.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_02: She started talking at 12 today.
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_02: It was about an hour before that press conference started, right?
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_02: So a lot of folks uh were worried, like, okay, did something leak?
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_02: What happened?
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_02: Maybe the algos just got it wrong this time, Nick, because she basically came out and said uh the border was a big part of it too, that you know there's been rumors that that was gonna get opened partially, maybe even.
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_02: And uh she said that definitely is not happening right now.
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_02: So that was uh it it was a pretty big sell-off, and then all of a sudden the futures tried to rally their way all the way back and even traded green uh towards the end of the day at points, but only closing down a buck to two on the live cattle across the board and and feeders down a couple bucks as well.
• 6:19
  SPEAKER_02: So it clawed back a lot of what it lost through the morning, uh, but still a very interesting, interesting trade today, to say the least, Nick.
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_02: Any comments on that before we get to cattle on feed?
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_01: I don't really think so.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, we did experience the same thing, I guess, you know, last August with with her speech and and not not anything opening on on the border front either.
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_01: So I think you know, the the market was anticipating some news there.
• 6:45
  SPEAKER_01: We didn't get the news, and so it it came back.
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_01: But but the market also very much realizes that if we if you know when and if we open that border that that is gonna shoot some more cattle into the country, not a not a tremendous amount right away, probably, but um, but over time that's probably gonna take a little pressure off in the south anyway, off of off of packers, as they you know, there's there'll be fat cattle that come in.
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_01: Um and today those cattle are getting harvested in Mexico and we're importing that beef.
• 7:18
  SPEAKER_01: But but you know that that could be the little trigger that's that the market you know sells off and and then slowly grinds lower as we as we have incoming cattle from Mexico.
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_01: Now that's not happening yet.
• 7:31
  SPEAKER_01: That's why that's why we rebounded today, but the market certainly knows that when it does, it's it's gonna have a bearish tone to it.
• 7:38
  SPEAKER_02: We'll get another look at this next week when Rollins visits Arizona there, take a look at the the progress that team's been making there in Douglas.
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_02: In the meantime, Catalon Feed came out.
• 7:49
  SPEAKER_02: What would you have to sum up the Catalon Feed report this afternoon?
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_02: I and I know this doesn't have a significant market impact most uh most months, uh, especially by the time you get through the weekend, it seems like the market forgets what we're trading at.
• 8:04
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, what could you tell me about the Catalon feed report today, Nick?
• 8:08
  SPEAKER_01: Well, just that you know, Mike, just that it was very close to expectations.
• 8:13
  SPEAKER_01: Um, I don't think the market really is is was looking for any big earth-shattering news from that report today to to send it one direction or the other.
• 8:24
  SPEAKER_01: We all know that we're we're we're gonna be lower in placements, lower in marketings, and scotch lower in cattle and feed versus a year ago.
• 8:32
  SPEAKER_01: So I don't think that uh you know the market's was really looking for that report to for a big change and and it's kind of been that way for some time.
• 8:40
  SPEAKER_01: Obviously, all everything that's going on like we're talking about with the with the uh you know with with Mexico and and and also with the funds getting long and and uh then reducing some positions, that's what's really kind of affecting the market, certainly the war and and crude oil as well.
• 8:58
  SPEAKER_01: But um because it because because for a while day, I I it was hard to find anything on the screen that was wasn't read, right?
• 9:05
  SPEAKER_02: I mean uh it was a rough day for a majority besides yeah for sure some particular things.
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_02: On feed, uh yeah, everything was in in within ranges, very neutral, but uh on feed 95.99.5 versus 99.8 average estimate placed category, 92.7 versus 93.5.
• 9:24
  SPEAKER_02: That's about as close as that gets to their average estimate.
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_02: And uh 94.5 on marketed versus the 93.7 average estimate.
• 9:32
  SPEAKER_02: So very, very close on everything.
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_02: We'll be focused on other items here early next week to say the least here next.
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_02: So a few things to watch out for next week uh for these cattle producers, you think?
• 9:43
  SPEAKER_01: Well, um just I think again we got to be watching these boxes because that's what we're gonna need for them to bid up the cattle.
• 9:50
  SPEAKER_01: And uh other than that, I think uh, you know, that again today did give us an opportunity for the basis trader to to move some cattle.
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_01: And uh, and so there is gonna be not, you know, I know Nebraska alone's got close to 7,000 head that that moved in the cash trade.
• 10:06
  SPEAKER_01: Um, I'm not sure exactly where we'll end up overall, but uh does look like Packers got some cattle around them this week or today, really.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_02: A lot can change in a week.
• 10:17
  SPEAKER_02: All right, thank you, Nick, for your time this week.
• 10:19
  SPEAKER_02: If uh anyone needs anything else, please reach out to us.
• 10:22
  SPEAKER_02: We love chat about the markets here.
• 10:24
  SPEAKER_02: We appreciate your time this week.