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What is going on with the polls this primary season · INSIGHT TODAY

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Let's start with you, Shauna. I mean, we polling is imperfect, right,
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Sometimes you assume and we saw this in Michigan last
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: week as well. There were polls showing el said who
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: still won the primary, up by ten, fifteen, twenty points,
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: and you start to see many of those, and then
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: you start to assume this is where it is headed.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: What do you make of the dynamics of what we're seeing? Again,
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: it's early, but so far with these numbers.
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think one, I think it's very difficult
• 0:28
  Speaker 2: to poll primaries in battleground states, open primaries, which Michigan
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: and Wisconsin, which means if you're an independent, you can
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: go vote in whichever one you want. If you're a Republican,
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: you can go vote in the Democratic primary. If you're
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: a Democrat and go vote in the Republican primary. Yeah,
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: I to choose one, but you can do that. I
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: think that makes it a little bit more difficult to pull.
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: And one thing is I was reading Nate Silver's what
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: you mentioned earlier today, is his forecast is going for
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: instead of just likely voters, registered voters, I believe, and
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: so that is a larger group. And if people like
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: Abdwell I'll say, yet, if people like Francesca hung even
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: in the primary, are able to get some of those
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: slightly more low propensity voters to actually show up in
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: a primary, that can kind of skew the polling a
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: little bit as well. So I think in both of
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: those states, as we saw in the twenty twenty four election,
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: as we've seen another in other elections, they're battleground states.
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: These are fifty to fifty states. People are trying to
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: figure out who's going to win come November. And I
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: think any of these polls that you see that are
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: way way way in one direction or another, you have
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: to keep coming back to the idea that Michigan, for example,
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: twenty twenty four Trump one, twenty twenty four, the Senator,
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: the Democratic Senator one as well. These are these states,
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: and really, like on a daylight today, what I like
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: to say is voters are voting. We have to just
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: let them vote.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: Certain point. It's very go.
• 1:50
  Speaker 3: Ahead, Peter, I was going to say one of the takeaways,
• 1:52
  Speaker 3: this is a conversation. It's nice to watch as the
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: numbers come in. This is going to be close, will
• 1:56
  Speaker 3: likely be up late or we'll wake up in the morning.
• 1:58
  Speaker 3: I watch Day to Play and find out what happens.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: But hopefully we'll be up before that said.
• 2:03
  Speaker 3: But what I would say is this just a reminder
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: to folks at home, excuse me, because so much of
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: the conversation is about the intra party fighting between the
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: progressives and the moderates. I was speaking of the former
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: Democratic state Party chair in Wisconsin today, Ben Wickler, who
• 2:16
  Speaker 3: said very clearly to me, said, Peter, this is a
• 2:18
  Speaker 3: forty eight to forty eight state, not even a fifty
• 2:20
  Speaker 3: fifty state. You got forty eight percent vote for Democrats.
• 2:22
  Speaker 3: In the general, forty eight percent are going to vote
• 2:24
  Speaker 3: for Republicans, and then the remaining folks in the middle.
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: That's what's going to decide this thing. And that's what
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: happens over and over again. Two point six million Wisconsinights
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  Speaker 3: voted in each of the last two elections in twenty twenty,
• 2:36
  Speaker 3: not in the general election, voted, i should say, in
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  Speaker 3: twenty twenty two and in twenty eighteen. In twenty twenty two,
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  Speaker 3: the Democrat Tony Evers won by ninety thousand votes. Four
• 2:45
  Speaker 3: years earlier, he won by thirty thousand votes out of
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: two point six million. This thing is close, So we
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: can talk about it all we want, in all the
• 2:52
  Speaker 3: divisions and what have you. At the end of the day,
• 2:54
  Speaker 3: the belief is that everyone sort of coalesces. So it
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: really comes down to that little core number of Wisconsin
• 2:59
  Speaker 3: folks who make these decisions.
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: But I also think the data center's issue. I have heard,
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: you know, Liz brought it up. We know that Franjessca
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: Honk has made a big deal of it. I have
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: heard multiple Democratic groups, multiple campaigns behind the scenes, say
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: this issue allows me to talk to Republicans and independents. Now,
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: that doesn't mean they expect the Republicans to come vote
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: for them in November. It doesn't mean that those independents
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: are going to vote for them in November. But it
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: does mean they've found something that allows people to get
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: a little past their partisan divide and have a conversation
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: about what do these data centers mean for the area
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: of town that I live in. And you know, in Texas,
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: there was this headline last week Greg Abbott, the governor,
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: the very long term Republican and well liked governor in Texas,
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: put a moratorium on data centers in Texas. And I
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: looked at that and I said, he knows he has
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: a problem. Yeah, that doesn't mean he's going to lose,
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: but it means they are seeing something. This is how
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: I analyze it. They're seeing something in their numbers that
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: says one, this issue resonates two. I got to do something,
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: and I have the ability to do something because I
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: am the sitting up.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: I mean, Francesca Hong and Steve Bannon are talking about
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  Speaker 1: data centers Eugene one Last Love before we go to
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  Speaker 1: commercial break.
• 4:12
  Speaker 4: I think what's so interesting We're looking at the numbers.
• 4:15
  Speaker 4: Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist should not in normal times
• 4:19
  Speaker 4: have a chance, right, Like this idea that the party's
• 4:23
  Speaker 4: been taken over by democratic socialists not true. But what
• 4:26
  Speaker 4: it does show is that democratic socialism is not as
• 4:28
  Speaker 4: scary as it used to be. People are so desperate, voters,
• 4:31
  Speaker 4: normal humans are so desperate for change in their lives.
• 4:35
  Speaker 4: They're looking at capitalism and they're saying, sometimes, you know,
• 4:38
  Speaker 4: that hasn't really worked, especially for young voters and young people.
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  Speaker 4: And so I think the voters are not just telling
• 4:44
  Speaker 4: us who they want to be in office, they're also
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  Speaker 4: telling us the kind of things they want them to
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  Speaker 4: work on. Whether there's data centers are other things, but
• 4:50
  Speaker 4: they're also saying you have to go up there and
• 4:52
  Speaker 4: shake the table. And if folks aren't doing that, if
• 4:55
  Speaker 4: folks aren't actually listening to their voters, they're going to
• 4:57
  Speaker 4: kick them out right. That's how you end up with
• 4:59
  Speaker 4: someone named Donald Trump after you just had Joe Biden.
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: All the function of the Donald Trump era, that's what
• 5:04
  Speaker 3: has changed this. The Trump model shifted everything