Latest / Financial Survival Network / The Great Precious Metals Catch-up Is Happening Now -- Michael Arries #6069

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The Great Precious Metals Catch-up Is Happening Now -- Michael Arries #6069 · Financial Survival Network

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These things happen because gold and silver go up with inflation when we print too
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much of our fiat currency. You know, the metals that are real money,
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that are limited and supplied, they go up in value, and they
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don't go perfectly sideways up year after year with inflation. Sometimes they go,
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you know, down, go sideways, and then they have this big jump
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in this big catchup move, and we're kind of at that perfect storm.
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ever, and welcome. This is Financial Survival Network. I'm your host,
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Carrie Let's. Well, late gold prices have gone all over the place.
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They've gone the power ball one might stay and hey, how can that be?
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I thought that gold was a barbarous relic and silver was like, who
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needs silver when you have copper? Right? But Michael Arey's of the Nicol
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Vaney is here to explain to us exactly what's going on and why it took
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so long. Michael, It's great to have you back on the show.
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How are you well, I'm good, Carrie, thanks for having me on
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again. It's great to be here and interesting how things have changed. You
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know. I look back and when we talked before in February, we you
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know, you said on the show or titled the show precious Metals are worth
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the weight, and we kind of mentioned that in there, and honestly,
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I was thinking, all right, what's wrong? That's so fun? Yeah,
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but I was thinking, you know, yeah, we're we're we're soon
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to have a breakout. Something good's gonna happen here. It's been a long
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time, but you know, they're they're probably going to take off. I'm
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thinking, well, i'll see what happens later this year with the election whatever,
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and then you know, a month later in March, Gold starts to
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take off and never looks back. Now recently, I mean, you just
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had, you know, Craig Hemkeyon saying, oh, Silver's got to go
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about thirty. A couple days later, it goes above thirty. Not even
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trying to go back to thirty. It's just taken off. So it's interesting
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to see these acceleration phases in the metals when for so long you get a
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sideways move and just this up and down kind of going sideways, and you
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kind of think, oh, yeah, metals are never going to do anything,
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and then they take off. They're like, what's happening, what's going
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on? This is weird? Who I experts surprised? Expert surprised. But
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that's the thing, Carrie, this is normal. These things happen because gold
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and silver go up with inflation when we print too much of our fiat currency.
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You know, the metals that are real money, that are limited and
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supplied, they go up in value, and they don't go perfectly sideways up
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year after year with inflation. Sometimes they go you know down, go sideways,
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and then they have this big jump in this big ketchup move and we're
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kind of at that perfect storm now where you know, there's political dysfunction,
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there's distrust, there's potential war overseas, and really the FED is just kind
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of losing their mojo. You know, there's a lack of trust, a
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lack of faith that they can save this, that we can have a soft
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landing, and so you know, gold ahead of time is like, all
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right, well we need to go up now. You know, we're the
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safe haven asset. The market is buying that. But now it's ketchup mode.
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Now it's like, okay, gold should be much higher compared to the
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trillions and trillions of dollars we printed out of thin air. So now it
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has it's ketchup move and it looks like it goes straight up, and it's
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kind of fun to see that. But also it's not going to wait for
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us. People are late to the party at this point. Hey, if
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I look at the most good about housing but like just the most basic condo
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that could have purchased in nineteen seventy seven, in fact, my mother did
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for twenty one thousand. All right, Yeah, that that house is now
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selling well north of one hundred. So you're just using a multiplier of five
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back from when gold hit its peak in the eighties, and you know that's
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four thousand bucks, right, forty two fifty pardon my mat. Yeah,
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yeah, gold should go to four thousand to keep up with that condo,
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and it'll naturally do that to catch up to where it should be. Yeah,
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like you have to, you have to, you know your indicators.
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There's always these classical indicators of gold, right, Like they used to say
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one ounce by a fine man suit. Right, But like with all of
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the automation and stuff that happened, and the other countries, lower cost countries
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starting to produce higher quality garments, that measure lost its relevance to somewhat.
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Yes, for twenty three hundred bucks, you can buy a good suit,
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not like a like a hand seiler custom suit. Yeah, yeah, but
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really it's changed a lot. So you got to look at other indicators.
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One two of them that never fail are how many ounces of gold to buy
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your average home? Right now we're at like one hundred and fifty thereabouts,
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and the doubt of gold ratio right right, right, yep, those are
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indicators we look at. I think I've seen, you know, at different
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times it's around two hundred ounces of gold to buy an average single family home,
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you know, and maybe maybe it'll yeah yeah, and now it'll be
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a little bit less with gold prices going up, But that's the same I
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mean one hundred years ago, same amount of gold buys a house. Now,
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same amount of gold buys a house, you know, one hundred years
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ago, if you had two thousand or five thousand dollars to buy a house.
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We can't even buy a shed for that nowadays. So holding on to
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your dear cash for one hundred years can't buy a house, can't even buy
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shed. Holding onto that amount of gold for one hundred years, it still
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buys a house. So that's that's why it's real money. And yeah,
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it'll it'll go to where it's going to go. And then yeah, with
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the dow gold ratio, we're going to look at that for when to when
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to sell it when it's too high. You know, when we get it
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down into the low single digits, well then gold has probably done more than
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it's catchup move and maybe getting too high and let's rebalance, let's take some
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of those gains. But you know, if the dowt of gold ratio is
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over ten to one or twenty to one like it has been, it's gold
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is too cheap and you just have to buy it. It's just stupid cheap.
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Speaking of ratios gold to silver, what could you say about that?
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That one's interesting? Now, it's no, I was down to seventy five
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yesterday. What is my chart say seventy six right now? So yeah,
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so it's coming down it's been in the nineties, you know, in the
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last year or two, it's been in the eighties, the last couple of
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months. Now it's seventy five, so it is coming down significantly and looking
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at some of the price chart patterns and the structures it makes when you just
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chart out the gold silver ratio, it's starting to you know, to break
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out and it looks like it's really going to head down. Or you can
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flip it the other way and do a percentage of silver to the price of
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gold and it looks like it's breaking out and going up. But that one's
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been a significant change. I mean at mclavaney we watched that. We look
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for major turning points where we can switch from one metal to the other and
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increase our ounces, get free ounces when one metal has outperformed another, and
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we help our clients do that. So we absolutely watch the ratio and this
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is I think going to be another one of those times where it comes down
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quickly. It'll usually go up and stay up for a long long time where
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silver is undervalued and now Carrie, it's probably going to drop quickly. Silver's
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going to shoot up and then we can buy a bunch of extra free gold
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with our silver versus what we could get today for it. I like it.
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Yeah. Well, you know the problem with silver if you're having physical
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is it just is so heavy and it takes up so much space. Yeah,
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to physically secure it, which you should never do in your home,
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but everyone does. It's costly, it's probablematical and better. You know,
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you got a few ounce as of gold and they can easier hide it.
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Yeah. Yeah, it's interesting. I mean, you know, everyone's different.
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You know, clients that I talked to, there are so many people
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that they want to have that in their hands. They want to know that
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it's within arm's reach and I get that. I feel the same way,
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so, you know, but silver can get pretty heavy and bulky. We
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do have good storage depositories that we use that We've even gone out and audited
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our client's metals and seeing everything that's there and confirmed everything. So there are
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good storage options that we have. Taking delivery, I've had people that have
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taken tens of thousands of ounces of silver. I mean it's like half a
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ton of silver, but they just want it nearby and they want silver for
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the performance. But there are options, there are ways to logistically make it
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work well, so hey, so yeah, so silver. You know,
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Eric Sprout, one of the gurus of our space, says, three hundred
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dollars silver, is it possible? I think it's possible. I think mathematically
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five hundred is possible. And that's not you know, the fringe conspiracy theory
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number. Really just looking at the inflation adjusted high from nineteen eighty and the
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ratio it got to then and the amount of money out there. Now,
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you know, we can potentially see gold go ten to fifteen thousand dollars an
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ounce. That would just be it's high in nineteen eighty when it got to
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eight fifty briefly, and then looking at the money supply today. I mean
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back then you could have picked that number, and there was a guy,
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Jim Sinclair picked that number pretty close just looking at and I'd have to look
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back. I can't remember if he looked at M one or M two for
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the money supply and the amount of official reserves, which I don't know we
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can trust that nowadays, but you can kind of, you know he did.
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He came to that number, and if you do the same thing nowadays,
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it's ten or fifteen thousand dollars an ounce. Well, if gold goes
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to ten thousand, then what's silver? So nineteen eighty, you know what
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the ratio was at the high God, I want to say it was like
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fifteen to one or something very close, very very close. One seventeen to
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one. Oh, I knew it was like ridiculously low bear to current numbers.
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Yeah, and again that's a peak point. You know we're going to
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hit something close to that when we have time to do a transaction. But
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yeah, you're right on. So imagine that today. Let's say gold goes
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to ten thousand dollars an ounce to just kind of catch up to where it
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should be with the money supply, Then what silver silver? The ratio gets
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down to twenty to one. Again, that's five hundred dollars silver, So
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that's very possible. That may be a brief event, but I mean anything
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from two hundred or five, whether it is possible silver gets to five hundred,
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is that going to be in today's dollars or is it going to be
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wildly depreciated future dollars? Where what I'm asking effectively, is the real purchasing
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power of silver and gold going to increase or is it just going to stay
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this same and we're just to have more dollars, you know. That's that's
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a good question. There are probably a lot smarter people than me that could
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pontificate on that. My feeling is from my experience, from what I've seen,
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is that gold and silver are going to overshoot where they should be.
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I think there will be a brief time where they go well passed and actually
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give us a gain, an increase in purchasing power far above inflation, and
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then come down to a new normal. So it may be the gold goes
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to ten thousand, comes back down to four or five thousand, and that's
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the new normal for the next generation. Like still higher than we're at now.
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We'll just be you know, the next generation's normal, but for a
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time, I imagine I bet that it will, and especially with silver,
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if it goes to several hundred dollars an ounce, I think it will overshoot
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and then come back down to reality and there will be a time where we
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take advantage of this once in a generation event with the growth in metals.
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And this really is carry like your listeners need to know this. This is
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one of those once in a life time opportunities to grow your portfolio with the
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big ketchup move in metals and have enough of an exposure to benefit from that.
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I like that, the big ketchup move in metals. And hey,
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so if you're able to take you know, what's seventy six ounces of silver
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now for one ounce of gold, and then down the road, instead of
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getting one ounce, you're getting five ounces almost, That's that's a big difference.
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So even if the purchasing power isn't going up, the purchasing power in
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time in terms of how much gold it will buy is going up correct well.
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Well, and that's just that's one way we're going to capture our gains
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a lot of way along the way. So for our clients at maclvane,
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if for anyone working with me, we're going to be doing some of that
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along the way, maybe not waiting to the very end. We might want
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to be scaling out of our precious metals at that very end point, at
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that very low ratio, but along the way we're going to hit points where
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you know, people that have bought five years ago, well, on this
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next move up in silver, they can get to a point where they can
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double their ounces from where they started, and maybe we take some of our
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silver and turn it into gold, and we're essentially capturing that gain in three
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ounces of gold. We're locking it in. We have extra three ounces of
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gold that we didn't have before, and we're locking in that gain. If
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there's a correction, great, we can reset for a little bit. If
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it keeps going, that's fine. We haven't tried to time the market perfectly.
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We're just we're making our pile bigger along the way. Okay, So
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the doubt to gold ratio, that's kind of when you know it's time to
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get out of metals. If it gets down to two to one, three
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to one, or one to one even then it's kind of flashing of major
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buy for the stock market. Huh. Yeah, that would be the case
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too. I think we'll get to a point of selling gold and buying stocks
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potentially if interest rates are high enough, going back into the bonds again too,
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if they're paying enough. But yeah, the Dow gold ratio will be
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a big indicator. And I've got actually a list for my clients, and
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I'm going to let them know. I've got a list of like ten indicators
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of this is what we normally see at the end of a bowl market in
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metals, how people are acting, what the news is saying, what's going
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on in the world. There's a lot of things we'll know, but the
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Dow gold ratio will be a good one. So what is it now?
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Seventeen to one? Roughly? What can we say it is sixteen? Between
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sixteen and seventeen to one. So yeah, the end of a bowl market,
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the time when you want to reallocate some of your goal, the time
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when you want to buy stocks. Maybe five to one or less. I
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mean, I think it could go to two or three to one. So
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huge multiplier, huge multiplier. And it's not like we'd even get rid of
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all our gold either. I think everyone should always have amount of gold,
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yeah, whether it's ten or twenty percent, whatever it is. But we
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may be high in that percentage when gold is ten thousand dollars down. So
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then let's say, all right, well let's go back to a foundational amount.
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Oh, stocks are dirt cheap, Okay, let's buy a bunch of
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those for pennies on the dollar compared to today. So there'll be a reallocation.
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We'll take advantage of these moves, but we also need to be on
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the trend right now, because this is this is where they're going. All
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right, it's exciting times here. Just tell us, Michael, where we
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find you connect with you. Give us your phone number, Yeah, the
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phone number you again, call our text We can get in touch that way.
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It's nine seven zero four five nine four six one one Again nine seven
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zero four five nine four six one one. Call me directly, send me
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a text. We'll connect. Any questions you have, I'm happy to help.
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Right, and the link is in the shows to this interview on Financial
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Survival Network dot com. If you've got a question for Michael byself, shoot
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me an email kl at Carrie Lutz and hey, while you're at the site,
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sign up for your free newsletter Michael. Always a pleasure, Thanks for
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coming by. Thank you, Kerrie Privilege. I appreciate it. Thanks for
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listening to Carrie Leutz's Financial Survival Network, your solution to today's trying times.
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