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Tuesday BEST BETS | Total Selectivity | NBA Playoffs & NHL Playoffs & MLB | 5/5/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm. Man, a hole in
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: your chase.
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: Black coffee on the felt Man, you look like a
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: mince three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head.
• 0:29
  Speaker 3: Now you stare at the chips.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: Like they made you this man.
• 0:33
  Speaker 3: But don't you go quiet?
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: Don't you fade from the floor, your name, steal me
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: something in somebody for show.
• 0:41
  Speaker 4: Put the glass down, baby, look at me, now, hold on,
• 0:51
  Speaker 4: hold on.
• 0:53
  Speaker 5: Nothing nice not no, hold on.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: Me, but it don't get the crown. Hold on, hold on.
• 1:17
  Speaker 3: Stay with me. Now, what's up? Everybody? It's towed back
• 1:29
  Speaker 3: with you with Toadstool Sports Tuesday Sinko de Mayo May
• 1:33
  Speaker 3: fifth one and one on the show yesterday, Miami Marlins
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: didn't score a run, so that was great. They lost
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: one to nothing. It was a toss up type of game.
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: We had the underdog. It is what it is. And
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: then Vegas was looking like it was gonna be a push.
• 1:52
  Speaker 3: They were winning one nothing for the majority of the game.
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: It got tied one to one and then they immediately
• 1:58
  Speaker 3: scored to retake the lead, and they got an empty
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: net goal with I don't know seven seconds left. Maybe
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: maybe it was more than that. I had the game
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: on and I was just like, yeah, there you go, baby.
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: The empty net scoops us the pot with Vegas and
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: they win three to one. I would have been a
• 2:16
  Speaker 3: push otherwise because they were about to win two to one.
• 2:20
  Speaker 3: So yeah, there you go. I'll take it. We'll move
• 2:25
  Speaker 3: on today. One baseball play for me today. I'm trying
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: to be really selective here. I don't love the baseball board.
• 2:31
  Speaker 3: I have a couple of leans that I will indicate
• 2:34
  Speaker 3: that I guess are stronger than the rest. And I'm
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: gonna have a play in the hockey game and it's
• 2:41
  Speaker 3: gonna be a rarity for me. But you might know
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: what it is because I zigzags. You might know what
• 2:46
  Speaker 3: we're doing there. I I have an opinion in one
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: of the NBA games that's stronger than the other, and
• 2:53
  Speaker 3: I considered it. I'm gonna stay off of it. But
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: I like one of the games a decent amount in
• 2:59
  Speaker 3: the NBA. But it's not a card, dirty sock. What's up?
• 3:03
  Speaker 3: Thanks for hanging out? Oh yeah, Dodgers team total. Yeah,
• 3:08
  Speaker 3: that sounds like me. I don't know. I don't even
• 3:10
  Speaker 3: remember what I said about that game. I pretty much
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: I don't know I that was one of those ones
• 3:15
  Speaker 3: where I wouldn't have really disagreed with just like laying
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: a run line price on them. They that would have
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: won as well. But yeah, I mean I think they
• 3:24
  Speaker 3: were up against a bad pitching staff. Right. Who are
• 3:27
  Speaker 3: they playing? They're playing Houston, right, Yeah, I mean I
• 3:30
  Speaker 3: think Houston was going with a bullpen game yesterday. So yeah,
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: that made sense. Although what are the Dodgers or yeah,
• 3:37
  Speaker 3: what are they score in that game? Dodgers? What do
• 3:43
  Speaker 3: they do? They scored eight? I mean for them to
• 3:46
  Speaker 3: get over the team total, you probably needed them to
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: score seven runs in that game though, So it's a
• 3:52
  Speaker 3: little bit questionable. A's Philadelphia, Hey the Philadelphia A's. Have
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: we time traveled here? No, the formerly Philadelphia A's now
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: homeless A's or against the Philadelphia Phillies Here. Philly's played
• 4:07
  Speaker 3: yesterday the A's were off, so the A's have a
• 4:10
  Speaker 3: rest advantage here. There are a couple of teams with
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: the rest edge today, and I do have a play
• 4:15
  Speaker 3: on one of them, but it's not this one. Philly
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: is returning home from Miami. They won the Miami series. Unfortunately,
• 4:22
  Speaker 3: we got one game right, one game wrong. For plays
• 4:26
  Speaker 3: in that series. Yes, they're technically returning home from a
• 4:29
  Speaker 3: road trip, which I would say that is generally a negative,
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: like you get back to family life, you got stuff
• 4:35
  Speaker 3: to do back at home. But they were gone for
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: a little bit less than a week, and it was
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: a divisional series, one game one series road trip, so
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: I don't really put too much weight into how bad
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: that is in this particular spot. The A's, though, were
• 4:50
  Speaker 3: off yesterday. Like I said, they played at home, so
• 4:53
  Speaker 3: they are traveling across the country for this. But a
• 4:56
  Speaker 3: lot of times the team will have momentum to start
• 4:59
  Speaker 3: a road trip. They won their last game against Cleveland.
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: Now starting the road trip, they beat Parker Messek. Actually,
• 5:06
  Speaker 3: now the A's are on the road here. Still some
• 5:09
  Speaker 3: problems with the A's though. I mean, their bullpen is
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: rested because they didn't play yesterday, but their bullpen isn't
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: very good. Philadelphia's bullpen is not particularly good either, and
• 5:20
  Speaker 3: used three arms out of it yesterday. Philadelphia is eighteenth
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: and bullpen whip, which is not very good. The A's
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: are even worse. They're twenty third. I would not trust
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: these two bullpens. Hitting wise, the A's are all the
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: way up to sixth now, and I told you their
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: offense was going to move up. But they're not at home.
• 5:39
  Speaker 3: They're not in as hit or friendly a park as
• 5:42
  Speaker 3: their home stadium. But they are a pretty good offense.
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: Phillies still continue to struggle as a bottom three offense
• 5:50
  Speaker 3: right now. You got to give the A's a little
• 5:53
  Speaker 3: bit of an offensive edge here. Luis Severino pitching for
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: the A's four point four to six ERA, one point
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: four to three whip. Those are bad numbers for the
• 6:03
  Speaker 3: most part. He is a little bit better on the road.
• 6:05
  Speaker 3: Last year he was a completely different pitcher on the road.
• 6:08
  Speaker 3: I would say, yes, he is better on the road
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: than at home. He's allowed all four home runs that
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: he's allowed at home this year. You know it's a
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: very hitter friendly ballpark. His numbers overall, I mean they're
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: not that good. Forty to twenty three strike aut walk
• 6:25
  Speaker 3: ratio is way too many walks, thirty eight and a
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: third innings pitched, thirty two hits allowed, pitched well in
• 6:31
  Speaker 3: his last two starts, though, one on the road and
• 6:33
  Speaker 3: one at home. And ITA's Texas and Kansas City, Philadelphia.
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: They're capable of being a better offense than this or
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: they haven't been this year so far, his numbers think
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: it's Philly or mediocre. Philly is familiar with him because
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: he was on the Mets for a while. Sixty at
• 6:50
  Speaker 3: bats nineteen to four strike at walk ratio is a
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: pretty high ratio to sixty seven batting average allowed in
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: eight to twelve ops allowed. Not great. He's going up
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: against Christopher Sanchez, who is the better pitcher two point
• 7:05
  Speaker 3: ninety RA. But his one point five whip is a problem.
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: I mean, he's definitely putting too many guys on base.
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: He's been way better at home so far one point
• 7:14
  Speaker 3: five ERA at home, so the home road splits actually
• 7:16
  Speaker 3: favored both starting pitchers in this matchup. His fifty strikeouts
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: in forty to thirty innings, that's a lot of strikeouts.
• 7:24
  Speaker 3: Thirteen walks isn't that bad considering how high the strikeout
• 7:28
  Speaker 3: rate is a lot of ground balls as well. But
• 7:30
  Speaker 3: forty eight hits allowed, I mean he had two starts
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: where he gave up like all those hits though the
• 7:37
  Speaker 3: Cubs and San Francisco, both of those on the road.
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: By the way, will Sanchez do better here at home? Yeah,
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: he might. His numbers against the A's it's pretty limited.
• 7:48
  Speaker 3: Twenty six at bat sample size six hitters have faced them,
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: nine strikeouts, two walks, two thirty one batting average allowed
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: six to thirty two ops. Sanchez does have the better
• 7:59
  Speaker 3: Matchupmbers here, you know, I I think he is better
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: than what that whip would tell you that he is.
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: I don't know. I don't like the game. I mean,
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: there are some advantages to the A's here. The money
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: kind of looks like it's indicating towards Philadelphia. But because
• 8:15
  Speaker 3: pregame is never going to fix their bullshit, I can't
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: even actually get a good view of the market. Fifty
• 8:21
  Speaker 3: eight percent of tickets, fifty six percent of the cash
• 8:23
  Speaker 3: on on the A's according to a wager talk here, Like,
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: do you really think the A's are the public side? Here?
• 8:31
  Speaker 3: Is that how bad things have gotten for Philly? I'm
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: not so sure about that. Plus Sanchez on the momb
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: people kind of know who he is. I don't know.
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: There is a reason why Philly is favored at around
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: minus one point eighty because Sanchez is definitely the better
• 8:44
  Speaker 3: of the two pitchers. But you know, there are some
• 8:47
  Speaker 3: disadvantages to Philly here. It's a tough call. I mean,
• 8:52
  Speaker 3: there are some arguments to be made for a first
• 8:54
  Speaker 3: five under in this game, possibly with both pitchers not
• 8:59
  Speaker 3: really having the worst match up here or being in
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: the world, they're both in the better of their home
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: road splits here. I wouldn't want to deal with the
• 9:06
  Speaker 3: bullpens if I went with the under, though I don't know.
• 9:09
  Speaker 3: It's not a strong opinion for me at all. The
• 9:12
  Speaker 3: money seems to be indicating to lean towards Philadelphia. I'm
• 9:16
  Speaker 3: not sure that I agree with that, although Sanchez again
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: is the better pitcher and does have the better matchup numbers.
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: I could see a somewhat of an argument that the
• 9:24
  Speaker 3: line is just too high on Philadelphia. But you could
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: also argue it's that high for a reason on a
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: team that doesn't have a good record right now. So
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: I don't have a good read on that game. Houston's
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: bullpen is shit. I mean, just the numbers tell you that,
• 9:43
  Speaker 3: what did you ladder the team total? I don't do
• 9:46
  Speaker 3: that shit. I don't recommend that at all. I make
• 9:49
  Speaker 3: it one single bet on whatever the number is, if
• 9:51
  Speaker 3: it's a good enough number, and that's what I do.
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: I don't fuck around with that bullshit, all right, Baltimore Miami.
• 10:00
  Speaker 3: In Houston's atrocious bullpen's factoring into the line, Miami lost
• 10:06
  Speaker 3: their last two games to Philadelphia. They're staying at home.
• 10:10
  Speaker 3: Baltimore also played yesterday and they're traveling from New York.
• 10:14
  Speaker 3: They just lost. They got swept in pretty bad man
• 10:18
  Speaker 3: or against the Yankees, although when you look at those
• 10:21
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna talk about the Yankees in a minute, but
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: those scores are a little bit misleading. In that Yankee series,
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: one of the games Baltimore was winning, I think two
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: games ago, Baltimore was winning late in the game, Yankees
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: had one huge explosion, like an eight run inning, and
• 10:36
  Speaker 3: then yesterday they also had like a six run inning
• 10:38
  Speaker 3: late in the game. And believe it or not, the
• 10:40
  Speaker 3: Yankees got out hit by Baltimore in the game yesterday.
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: Even though the Yankees won twelve to one, Baltimore out
• 10:47
  Speaker 3: hit them twelve to ten. I'm pretty sure you almost
• 10:50
  Speaker 3: never see something like that. One team scoring one runoff
• 10:53
  Speaker 3: of twelve hits, which is unheard of, and then another
• 10:57
  Speaker 3: team scoring twelve off of ten hits, also unheard of.
• 11:01
  Speaker 3: So that game was closer than the final score makes
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: it look. Still don't know if I love Baltimore here though.
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: Baltimer's bullpen they used three relief pitchers yesterday. Who we're
• 11:14
  Speaker 3: even talking about Miami? Miami, they do have the better
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: bullpen over the Orioles. They use three relievers as well.
• 11:21
  Speaker 3: Miami actually up to fourth in bullpen whip. Their bullpen
• 11:25
  Speaker 3: has been performing well. Orioles are twentieth, then their ERA
• 11:28
  Speaker 3: is way worse at almost five ops. Miami has dropped
• 11:34
  Speaker 3: a little bit. They're fourteenth. The Orioles I think have
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: dropped as well. Where even are they They're at seventeenth,
• 11:41
  Speaker 3: So you're looking at offenses that have been mediocre this
• 11:44
  Speaker 3: year so far. Chris Bassett is pitching for the Orioles.
• 11:47
  Speaker 3: He's been bad five point four to six ERA, one
• 11:50
  Speaker 3: point eighty six whip, really bad on the road eight
• 11:53
  Speaker 3: point h three roady ra. He is starting to pitch
• 11:56
  Speaker 3: better at home though, and we figured that out with
• 11:58
  Speaker 3: a loss on Houston and that doubleheader the other day.
• 12:02
  Speaker 3: Bassett actually had a good start. Go figure his overall
• 12:06
  Speaker 3: number sucks seventeen strikeouts, fourteen walks in twenty eight innings,
• 12:10
  Speaker 3: thirty eight hits allowed as well. None of that is
• 12:13
  Speaker 3: good at all. Although his team is one of his
• 12:15
  Speaker 3: last four starts. Though based on last year, I mean,
• 12:19
  Speaker 3: maybe he's not as bad as these numbers would suggest.
• 12:23
  Speaker 3: But I'm not a Bassett fan. I was the one
• 12:26
  Speaker 3: that was early to fading Bassett last year when he
• 12:30
  Speaker 3: was looking pretty good with Toronto and professional betters were
• 12:33
  Speaker 3: all over him. I'm like, dude, he's thirty seven. He
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: throws like just all fastball's like, what are you talking about?
• 12:40
  Speaker 3: Like he has more of a relief pitchers arsenal here,
• 12:44
  Speaker 3: and he's too old and his underlying metrics did not
• 12:47
  Speaker 3: look good to me anyway. Against Miami, they really don't
• 12:52
  Speaker 3: have much experience against him somehow, even though he's been
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: in the league forever, mostly in the American League, though,
• 12:58
  Speaker 3: I think they're only one for not off him morel
• 13:02
  Speaker 3: and Ruiz are the only guys that have faced him
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: before four strikeouts, no walks. There's not a lot to
• 13:07
  Speaker 3: read into there. Although Bassett might actually match up okay
• 13:10
  Speaker 3: against Miami it is a more pitcher friendly park, but
• 13:13
  Speaker 3: he's been atrocious on the road. Sandy al Contra's pitching
• 13:17
  Speaker 3: for the Marlins. He's having a good season. Three point
• 13:20
  Speaker 3: h four ERA, one point one six whip. He's been
• 13:23
  Speaker 3: really good at home one point two to three home era.
• 13:27
  Speaker 3: The worry with him is his stuff just doesn't look
• 13:30
  Speaker 3: like it's there anymore, like that's been the case since
• 13:32
  Speaker 3: he's had his injuries at surgeries. He's only got thirty
• 13:35
  Speaker 3: one strikeouts in forty seven to a third inning, so
• 13:38
  Speaker 3: obviously his velocity is not there. He's not striking guys out.
• 13:42
  Speaker 3: He has fifteen walks only forty hits allowed, so he
• 13:45
  Speaker 3: is managing to pitch pretty well given his limitations. He's
• 13:51
  Speaker 3: really only had one bad start. All of his other
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: starts besides the road start against Detroit, he's allowed three
• 13:56
  Speaker 3: or fewer earned runs and two or fewer in all
• 13:59
  Speaker 3: but one of them. So he is having a good season.
• 14:02
  Speaker 3: Although I do worry because it looks like his stuff
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: just doesn't exist anymore. And I don't mean his manhood,
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: maybe I do. Numbers against Baltimore are very good, but
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: remember a lot of these numbers are in the past.
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: Sixty two career at bats, fourteen strikeouts, three walks, one
• 14:21
  Speaker 3: forty five batting average allowed five to twenty seven ops.
• 14:24
  Speaker 3: Really good matchup numbers. There is he capable of doing
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: well here? Yeah? Obviously I probably prefer the Miami side.
• 14:33
  Speaker 3: Here they had eighty two percent of tickets, ninety percent
• 14:35
  Speaker 3: of the cash minus one twenty something. Looks like it's
• 14:39
  Speaker 3: the price here totals at eight eight and a half money.
• 14:43
  Speaker 3: He looks like it's kind of hitting the under a
• 14:45
  Speaker 3: little bit. I guess there are some arguments for that,
• 14:47
  Speaker 3: with the matchup numbers both being sort of okay. But
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: I would trust alekandrover Bassett, even though he's you know,
• 14:55
  Speaker 3: past his surgeries whatever. He's not the guy that he
• 14:58
  Speaker 3: once was. But I, you know me, I really do
• 15:01
  Speaker 3: not like Basst, and Miami has the better bullpen as well.
• 15:05
  Speaker 3: I'll lean to Miami in that game slightly. But Baltimore
• 15:09
  Speaker 3: wasn't as bad as they looked in that New York series.
• 15:12
  Speaker 3: Boston Red Sox at Detroit. The Red Sox got the
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: win yesterday because, I guess, luckily for them, Tark Schooball
• 15:20
  Speaker 3: was a late scratch with some sort of injury, so
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: he didn't pitch yesterday. So basically Detroit went with a
• 15:27
  Speaker 3: bullpen game yesterday and the Red Sox still barely won.
• 15:31
  Speaker 3: Peyton totally actually pitched well for the Red Sox yesterday,
• 15:35
  Speaker 3: and the Red Sox bullpen was actually the problem yesterday
• 15:38
  Speaker 3: and almost blew the game, but luckily for me, I
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: guess didn't. But the Red Sox have been total ass.
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: Detroit probably is the better team. Detroit has the better
• 15:48
  Speaker 3: of the pitching matchup today. They're coming off a loss.
• 15:51
  Speaker 3: Could be a bounce back spot for Detroit. Here it
• 15:53
  Speaker 3: is going to be the Red Sox actually going with
• 15:55
  Speaker 3: a bullpen game sort of ish this time, which I'll
• 15:59
  Speaker 3: talk about in a minute. Caleb, what's up? Thanks for
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: hanging out. Red Sox. Their bullpen has been good generally
• 16:06
  Speaker 3: this year. They used two relief pitchers yesterday, including Chapman,
• 16:10
  Speaker 3: so he's pitched two days in a row. He's not
• 16:12
  Speaker 3: gonna be available in this game. So if the Red
• 16:14
  Speaker 3: Sox need a closer, they're gonna be in trouble. Detroit
• 16:21
  Speaker 3: used a bunch of relief pitchers yesterday. Like I said,
• 16:23
  Speaker 3: they used Holton as like an opener and then went
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: all bullpen yesterday because they had to. They had I
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: don't think they even had time to call anybody up,
• 16:32
  Speaker 3: so that did not work out for Detroit yesterday. They
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: used four relief pitchers. They still barely lost the game,
• 16:38
  Speaker 3: though Detroit does have the lesser of the two bullpens.
• 16:42
  Speaker 3: The Red Sox are at ninth and bullpen whip right now,
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: Detroit twenty first, with an ERA about a run higher
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: no half a run higher than the Red Sox BULLPENNYRA.
• 16:53
  Speaker 3: Detroit is the better offense. They're in the top ten.
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: The Red Sox are in the bottom few. Hitting teams now,
• 17:00
  Speaker 3: not good, but this is supposed to be Brian Beo's
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: turning the rotation for the Red Sox, and he's been
• 17:07
  Speaker 3: so bad that they're changing it up. And I think
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: he is pitching, but they're gonna put an opener in
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: front of him. It looks like right now, which is
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: listed as Jovanni Moran, who they're gonna use out of
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: the bullpen. He's gonna make the opener here and then
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: BeO is gonna pitch. I don't like this, dude, I mean,
• 17:23
  Speaker 3: you're still gonna get Bao. BeO sucks. Moran has been
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: pretty good this year two point three to three e
• 17:29
  Speaker 3: RA one point zero nine whip, but I don't even
• 17:31
  Speaker 3: know if we really should even spend time handicapping him
• 17:35
  Speaker 3: that much. I mean, Detroit does have twenty at bats
• 17:38
  Speaker 3: against him. Two fifty average, seven to seventy three ohps
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: though six six strikeout walk ratio too many walks. But Moran,
• 17:45
  Speaker 3: I'm pretty sure he's only gonna go one inning in
• 17:47
  Speaker 3: this game. Maybe not, because it looks like he has
• 17:50
  Speaker 3: gone two to three innings in some cases. They might
• 17:53
  Speaker 3: have him actually go multiple innings here. Then they're probably
• 17:56
  Speaker 3: gonna have Bao come in. And if that's the case,
• 17:59
  Speaker 3: it's not gonna be good. Still, and look at all
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: these injuries. Man, this is just so bad for the
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: Red Sox. Heurshet, Gray Suarez all hurt right now. It's
• 18:10
  Speaker 3: getting ridiculous. Roman Anthony got hurt yesterday as well. Not
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: talking about their pitching, but getting ridiculous. BeO, if he's
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: pitching in this game, I mean, that can't be a
• 18:21
  Speaker 3: good thing. Nine point one two ERA, two point twenty
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: six whip numbers, it gets Detroit are awful three seventy
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: seven average allowed, nine to sixty three oh ps, eleven
• 18:31
  Speaker 3: to six strikeout walker ratio, had sixty nine at bats.
• 18:34
  Speaker 3: So if BeO is going to come into this game,
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: and I'm thinking he probably is, the Red Sox are
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: not gonna win this game in my opinion. Uh they're
• 18:44
  Speaker 3: having to go up against from Brevaldez as well, and
• 18:46
  Speaker 3: he's been solid uh three point three five ERA, one
• 18:49
  Speaker 3: point two six whip pitching for Detroit this year. The
• 18:52
  Speaker 3: whip is a little high, but he's been excellent at
• 18:54
  Speaker 3: home point six point nine ERA at home. His walk
• 18:59
  Speaker 3: rate is too high. Strike cut rate is actually a
• 19:01
  Speaker 3: little bit down. Thirty two strike cuts and forty to
• 19:03
  Speaker 3: third innings fourteen walks. That's his main issue. He walks
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: too many. He issues too many walks, thirty seven hits allowed.
• 19:11
  Speaker 3: That's not bad. He's generally been good, though He's only
• 19:15
  Speaker 3: had one start where he's allowed more than two earned runs,
• 19:17
  Speaker 3: where he inexplicably got just destroyed by Minnesota. But all
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: of his other starts were good, including one against the
• 19:24
  Speaker 3: Red Sox. By the way, he pitched well against them
• 19:27
  Speaker 3: back on April nineteenth in Fenway, held them in to
• 19:29
  Speaker 3: a one run in six innings, and I'm guessing that
• 19:33
  Speaker 3: Bao might have pitched in that series as well, and
• 19:36
  Speaker 3: probably did not do well against the Red Sox, by
• 19:40
  Speaker 3: the way, is pretty good. Two forty three average allowed,
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: six to seventeen ops, fourteen to three strike out walk ratio,
• 19:47
  Speaker 3: seventy at bats. Yeah, I mean I have to give
• 19:51
  Speaker 3: the edge to Detroit in this game, in the bounce
• 19:53
  Speaker 3: back with the obviously better starting pitcher here. If you
• 19:56
  Speaker 3: want to exclude the bullpens, I think that is okay actually,
• 19:59
  Speaker 3: and then you might get well, you're not gonna get
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: the price down. The price is probably higher on Detroit
• 20:04
  Speaker 3: in the first five innings, but it can only go
• 20:07
  Speaker 3: so high, like Detroit's like minus one eighty something for
• 20:10
  Speaker 3: the full game, and you're like almost never gonna see
• 20:13
  Speaker 3: a money line higher than that for a first five
• 20:16
  Speaker 3: because there's just not enough innings to justify it. So
• 20:20
  Speaker 3: I would probably lean Detroit minus the half run in
• 20:24
  Speaker 3: the first five innings to go with Detroit to have
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: the lead at the end of the first five and
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: then not worry about the bullpens because the Red Sox
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: do still have them more rested and better bullpen than
• 20:34
  Speaker 3: Detroit does. The money is coming in on the Red Sox,
• 20:37
  Speaker 3: which doesn't make sense to me. Sixty two percent of
• 20:40
  Speaker 3: the tickets on Detroit, sixty six percent of the casual
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: on the Red Sox. I don't see how you could
• 20:44
  Speaker 3: trust this Red Sox pitching situation here. Maybe I'm just
• 20:49
  Speaker 3: again too old school and I don't like these bullpen games.
• 20:53
  Speaker 3: And it is a planned one sort of, but it's
• 20:55
  Speaker 3: more that Bao is just so bad the Red Sox
• 20:58
  Speaker 3: are trying to find another option here. The totals at eight,
• 21:04
  Speaker 3: you know, I don't really have a good read on
• 21:05
  Speaker 3: the total there, but those are my thoughts on that game.
• 21:08
  Speaker 3: I think first five Detroit would be my lean. Toronto
• 21:12
  Speaker 3: at Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay won five to one yesterday.
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: They've won four games in a row. Tampa Bay hanging
• 21:18
  Speaker 3: there right behind the Yankees. Right now. Tampa Bay is
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: the second best record in the American League by a
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: wide margin. They're playing pretty well Tampa Bay. Their bullpen
• 21:28
  Speaker 3: has started to pitch better. Although they used five relief
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: pitchers yesterday, Toronto used four. You know, based on what
• 21:36
  Speaker 3: we saw last year. Out of these bullpens and who
• 21:38
  Speaker 3: they have in the bullpen, I think Tampa's is actually
• 21:40
  Speaker 3: probably the better bullpen. They're middle of the pack right now,
• 21:44
  Speaker 3: along with Toronto being slightly ahead of them in the
• 21:48
  Speaker 3: bullpen numbers, but I think Tampa is probably the better
• 21:50
  Speaker 3: of the two bullpens. Hitting wise, they're both fairly close
• 21:54
  Speaker 3: as well. They're both kind of middle of the pack.
• 21:56
  Speaker 3: Tampa has been a little bit better. I don't put
• 21:59
  Speaker 3: too much weight to that, though. I think Toronto, when healthy,
• 22:02
  Speaker 3: probably is the better hitting team. Though Kevin Gussman is
• 22:05
  Speaker 3: pitching for Toronto, and by the way, like just eyeing
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: who these pitchers are, it looks like it's gonna be
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: a pitching duel in this game, and it definitely could be.
• 22:13
  Speaker 3: But when you dig into the matchup numbers, maybe it's
• 22:16
  Speaker 3: not going to be. Gussman as a three point one
• 22:19
  Speaker 3: ERA point nine to six whip, he's been really good
• 22:21
  Speaker 3: this year. He's been not so good on the road though,
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: four point eighty six ROADIRA, so you could definitely fade
• 22:28
  Speaker 3: him on the road. He struggled in his last outing
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: at Minnesota, so he's not in the greatest of form
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: right now. Although he's generally had a really good season.
• 22:37
  Speaker 3: Forty to eight strike out walk ratio is really good,
• 22:40
  Speaker 3: thirty one hits, a lot of forty to two thirds innings.
• 22:43
  Speaker 3: But again, there are some indicators that maybe you can
• 22:45
  Speaker 3: fade him here. His numbers against Tampa are also not good.
• 22:48
  Speaker 3: In seventy four at bats, three point fifty one average allowed,
• 22:52
  Speaker 3: eight twenty five ops, twenty to five strike out walk
• 22:55
  Speaker 3: ratio is good, but the rest of those numbers are
• 22:58
  Speaker 3: a problem. Does not pitch particularly well against Tampa. Drew
• 23:03
  Speaker 3: Rasmussen is pitching for the Rays. He's having a good
• 23:05
  Speaker 3: season two point six four ERA point eighty five whip
• 23:09
  Speaker 3: and he's been really good at home point seventy five
• 23:12
  Speaker 3: home ERA. So the home road splits favor Drew Rasmussen
• 23:17
  Speaker 3: in this one, and the matchup numbers also do. By
• 23:20
  Speaker 3: the way, Rasmussen thirty two to five strike out walk
• 23:23
  Speaker 3: ratio on twenty one hits allout in thirty two thirds innings,
• 23:26
  Speaker 3: so his numbers are right there, like basically almost as
• 23:30
  Speaker 3: good as Gousman's on the season. It's just that Rasmussen
• 23:33
  Speaker 3: doesn't go as deep into most of these games. They
• 23:35
  Speaker 3: keep him on basically a pitch count. But they've let
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: him go a little bit deeper his last couple of games,
• 23:40
  Speaker 3: and he is in the better form right now. Two
• 23:43
  Speaker 3: pretty good starts in a row, and pitch better against
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: Minnesota than Goussman did, although I wouldn't put that much
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: weight into that. You know, everything's about an individual matchup here,
• 23:52
  Speaker 3: but Gusman does or excuse me, Rasmussen does appear to
• 23:55
  Speaker 3: have the better of this matchup. Sixty at beasts, two
• 23:58
  Speaker 3: hundred batting average allowed and six thready four ohps allowed
• 24:01
  Speaker 3: to Toronto's hitters. Twelve to seven strike out walk ratio
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: is not that good, but the rest of the numbers
• 24:07
  Speaker 3: are I'm gonna lean to Tampa Bay here. The money
• 24:12
  Speaker 3: seems to not agree with me at all. Tampa Bay
• 24:14
  Speaker 3: has got fifty seven percent of the tickets seventy four
• 24:17
  Speaker 3: percent of the cash on Detroit. It looks like Tampa,
• 24:19
  Speaker 3: based on how good their record is, they might be
• 24:22
  Speaker 3: a little bit public here. I'm not totally jumping out
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: of my seat to fade Gousseman, but this does look
• 24:28
  Speaker 3: like a spot where maybe Goussman isn't gonna do quite
• 24:31
  Speaker 3: as well. So my lean is Tampa. They're in the
• 24:34
  Speaker 3: minus one twenties here. It would be a money line play.
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: I think the bullpens you could probably leave them in.
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: I mean, they're both in a similar setup here. I
• 24:42
  Speaker 3: don't think there's a huge edge one way the one
• 24:44
  Speaker 3: way or the other bullpen wise, but if you want
• 24:47
  Speaker 3: to focus on just the starting pitching edge, yes, you
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: could go first five innings with Tampa as well, that
• 24:53
  Speaker 3: is definitely an option. The total is low at seven
• 24:57
  Speaker 3: and a half or seven, so it is the total
• 24:59
  Speaker 3: is lined like this is going to be a pitching matchup,
• 25:03
  Speaker 3: and maybe it will be. But I just showed you
• 25:05
  Speaker 3: the matchup numbers there, so I think I would prefer
• 25:08
  Speaker 3: Rasmussen in that one. Yeah, I lean Tampa slightly in
• 25:12
  Speaker 3: that one, either full game or first five. You know,
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: of course, now that I say that one of them
• 25:18
  Speaker 3: will win and one of them will lose. Jay Mane,
• 25:22
  Speaker 3: what's up? You like Gousman under his strikeout number that
• 25:27
  Speaker 3: I don't know. We're his strikeout numbers against Tampa. I don't.
• 25:33
  Speaker 3: I don't think I agree with that. He has a
• 25:34
  Speaker 3: high strikeout rate. Even though his overall numbers are bad
• 25:37
  Speaker 3: against Tampa, his strikeout rate against them is high. Twenty
• 25:41
  Speaker 3: strikeouts in seventy four at bats is a really high
• 25:44
  Speaker 3: strikeout rate. I would not play it that way, no way.
• 25:48
  Speaker 3: I would find a different way to play it, like
• 25:51
  Speaker 3: go with Tampa to score some runs off and or
• 25:54
  Speaker 3: I mean I already told you how I would play
• 25:55
  Speaker 3: the game. I would just focus on the matchup, you know.
• 25:59
  Speaker 3: Goussman versus Rasmussen, and then Gousman could pitch okay, and
• 26:02
  Speaker 3: you could still beat him if Rasmussen out pitches him.
• 26:06
  Speaker 3: So I still I would just play it with Tampa
• 26:08
  Speaker 3: Bay Minnesota at Washington. Washington did wait, yeah, they did
• 26:16
  Speaker 3: not play yesterday. They stayed at home. They beat Milwaukee
• 26:20
  Speaker 3: the day before that, so Washington has a day of rest.
• 26:23
  Speaker 3: I think Minnesota actually does as well. Yeah, I think
• 26:26
  Speaker 3: both these teams didn't play yesterday. Minnesota is coming in
• 26:30
  Speaker 3: from Toronto, so yes, both teams have a day of rest.
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: I don't think that's gonna really help though, because these
• 26:36
  Speaker 3: bullpens are just that bad. They're both in like the
• 26:38
  Speaker 3: bottom where's actually Washington has moved up a little bit,
• 26:42
  Speaker 3: Washington's twenty second, Minnesota's twenty eighth out of thirty, and
• 26:46
  Speaker 3: bullpen whip still really bad. I still don't trust either
• 26:50
  Speaker 3: of these bullpens at all. Both teams have been better
• 26:53
  Speaker 3: on the offensive side, but they've both fallen off. Minnesota thirteenth,
• 26:57
  Speaker 3: Washington nineteenth. Now, I mean, I just I don't think
• 27:00
  Speaker 3: either of these teams is really that good. So the
• 27:03
  Speaker 3: offenses have cooled off. The offenses now have a day
• 27:06
  Speaker 3: of rest, which I think can also cool the offenses
• 27:09
  Speaker 3: off a little bit. I don't like the bullpens, but
• 27:11
  Speaker 3: starting pitching wise, TODJ. Bradley, especially for the Twins, he
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: is pitching well. Tampa Bay probably not happy they got
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: rid of him. You know, he showed signs that he
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: might be a good pitcher man. I think Tampa just
• 27:24
  Speaker 3: rushed him to the majors. He looks good right now.
• 27:27
  Speaker 3: Two point eight five ERA one point two two whip.
• 27:30
  Speaker 3: He's been a little bit worse on the road, but
• 27:33
  Speaker 3: not too bad. Three point three two ERA, forty four
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: to fifteen strike out walk ratio. That's pretty good. Thirty
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: five hits a lout in forty one innings. The walk
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: number is still, I guess a little high, but overall
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: pretty good numbers here. He's only had one start where
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: he's allowed more than one earn run, and it was
• 27:51
  Speaker 3: against Tampa Bay on the road, So do with that
• 27:55
  Speaker 3: what you want to. But yeah, he's allowed two or
• 27:57
  Speaker 3: fewer earned runs and all the rest of his outings,
• 27:59
  Speaker 3: including a night bounce back outing against Seattle even though
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: they lost the game, it wasn't really his fault. He
• 28:06
  Speaker 3: is now pitching against who we're talking even dude, I
• 28:09
  Speaker 3: already forget, like I always forget who I'm even looking
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: at when we switch to the new series. Washington is
• 28:15
  Speaker 3: who are facing here? Washington only has four five hitters
• 28:18
  Speaker 3: who've ever faced him before. Thirteen at bats, six strikeouts,
• 28:22
  Speaker 3: one walk, two thirty one average allowed, five ninety three ops.
• 28:28
  Speaker 3: So his numbers are good against Washington, and they're not
• 28:30
  Speaker 3: that familiar with them. So I think Bradley could definitely
• 28:32
  Speaker 3: continue to pitch well here. Cade Cavali is pitching for Washington.
• 28:37
  Speaker 3: He's you know, I was gonna say he's young, but
• 28:40
  Speaker 3: he is twenty seven now, but he is actually starting
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: to pitch fairly well. He's got a three point eight
• 28:44
  Speaker 3: two ERA, but his whip scares me one point six six.
• 28:48
  Speaker 3: That is not good. He's been good at home though,
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: where he is today two point six y three home ERA,
• 28:54
  Speaker 3: and his last couple of starts have been good. He
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: has double digit strikeouts and two starts in a row
• 28:59
  Speaker 3: against the Raves and the Mets. So he stepped it
• 29:02
  Speaker 3: up in these two divisional matchups. I know the Mets
• 29:05
  Speaker 3: haven't been hitting at all, but doing it against the
• 29:07
  Speaker 3: Braves is pretty impressive. Touring runs allout in both those outings.
• 29:12
  Speaker 3: He's got thirty eight strikeouts in thirty and two thirds
• 29:14
  Speaker 3: innings now pretty good strikeout raid al though that's because
• 29:17
  Speaker 3: he's been really, really ramping it up in the last
• 29:20
  Speaker 3: two starts. But that tells you that he's in good
• 29:22
  Speaker 3: form right now and fooling hitters. And over that span
• 29:24
  Speaker 3: he only walked two guys, so twenty to two strikeout
• 29:28
  Speaker 3: walk rage over his last two outings and actually twenty
• 29:31
  Speaker 3: five to two over his last three with only five
• 29:35
  Speaker 3: runs all out over those fifteen innings or whatever it is.
• 29:38
  Speaker 3: So he is pitching pretty well right now. Fourteen walks
• 29:41
  Speaker 3: is a little high, though thirty seven hits allout is
• 29:44
  Speaker 3: also too high. Washington had lost five starts in a
• 29:49
  Speaker 3: row of is until they beat the Mets. Some of
• 29:52
  Speaker 3: it not his fault, though, but I think you might
• 29:55
  Speaker 3: be able to bank on him pitching. Okay here' I
• 30:00
  Speaker 3: believe Minnesota has never faced him before. I'm pretty sure,
• 30:04
  Speaker 3: let me find them. Yes, correct, So he's completely unfamiliar
• 30:08
  Speaker 3: to Minnesota and he's reaching like a peak of his
• 30:11
  Speaker 3: strikeout ability right now. I like both starting pitchers in
• 30:15
  Speaker 3: this game, believe it or not, and people are gonna
• 30:17
  Speaker 3: look at this, and who's gonna want to do that
• 30:20
  Speaker 3: with this game? Oh my god, Bradley against Cavalie, Like,
• 30:22
  Speaker 3: who's gonna look at that and think, Yeah, that's gonna
• 30:24
  Speaker 3: be a pitching duel. But I like this. This is
• 30:27
  Speaker 3: one of my stronger opinions of the day. I haven't
• 30:29
  Speaker 3: put it on my card, and I will say I
• 30:33
  Speaker 3: think the Tampa Bay one is also one of my
• 30:35
  Speaker 3: stronger leans. So I like Tampa Bay and I like
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: this one a little bit more than that. I would
• 30:41
  Speaker 3: go under first five innings in this one. I think
• 30:44
  Speaker 3: Bradley and Cavali can actually both pitch well here. The
• 30:47
  Speaker 3: full game total is nine. The money is hitting the over,
• 30:50
  Speaker 3: sixty six percent tickets eighty three percent of the cash
• 30:53
  Speaker 3: on the over. Now, it does worry me the oddsmakers
• 30:56
  Speaker 3: have put a pretty high total out there on this game.
• 30:59
  Speaker 3: It also worries me the Washington's pitching has been really
• 31:01
  Speaker 3: bad at home, but the bullpens are also being factored
• 31:04
  Speaker 3: into that, and the bullpens stink. But I think the
• 31:07
  Speaker 3: offenses could come in a little bit cold with yesterday off.
• 31:11
  Speaker 3: Both starting pitchers look like they match up well here.
• 31:14
  Speaker 3: I would go under first five innings. You might be
• 31:16
  Speaker 3: able to get that under five in the first five innings,
• 31:18
  Speaker 3: So that's what I would do. As far as the side,
• 31:21
  Speaker 3: it looks like the line flip from Minnesota being the
• 31:24
  Speaker 3: favorite to Washington potentially being a small favorite. Although fifty
• 31:28
  Speaker 3: percent of tickets fifty eight percent of the cash on Minnesota,
• 31:32
  Speaker 3: so hard to read the market on the side there.
• 31:34
  Speaker 3: I don't have a good opinion on the side really.
• 31:37
  Speaker 3: I like the total and that one to go under
• 31:39
  Speaker 3: in the first five innings. The next game will be
• 31:42
  Speaker 3: my play. I only have one in baseball here. We're
• 31:51
  Speaker 3: gonna take the rested team here, the Texas Rangers, and
• 31:54
  Speaker 3: we're gonna fade the New York Yankees. Again. There are
• 31:58
  Speaker 3: a lot of things that go into this, man, so
• 32:00
  Speaker 3: Texas has a rest advantage. But you look at the
• 32:02
  Speaker 3: Yankees and the Yankees, like the line alone on this
• 32:07
  Speaker 3: game kind of tells you what you need to know.
• 32:09
  Speaker 3: Like the Yankees have one of the best records in baseball,
• 32:12
  Speaker 3: they're the Yankees. Why are they like minus one twenty
• 32:15
  Speaker 3: to minus one thirty here? Right Like, it looks way
• 32:17
  Speaker 3: too easy to play the Yankees here. The reason is
• 32:21
  Speaker 3: Texas has rest and the Osbakers are just telling you
• 32:25
  Speaker 3: something with this number, Man, They're telling you that in
• 32:27
  Speaker 3: this particular game, the Yankees don't have as big of
• 32:30
  Speaker 3: an edge as they usually do, And I agree. I
• 32:32
  Speaker 3: think they have a starting pitching disadvantage, which I'm going
• 32:34
  Speaker 3: to talk about in a minute. I think Texas has
• 32:37
  Speaker 3: a better bullpen as well. Texas is more rested because
• 32:40
  Speaker 3: they didn't play yesterday, so all of thatat is factoring
• 32:43
  Speaker 3: into this. The Yankees are staying at home, so there
• 32:46
  Speaker 3: is that Texas is traveling, but Texas is in the
• 32:50
  Speaker 3: middle of a road trip. They lost their last two
• 32:52
  Speaker 3: games badly against Detroit. I think Texas is going to
• 32:56
  Speaker 3: show up here, man, one day off huge series against
• 32:59
  Speaker 3: the Yankees. They lost already at home to the Yankees
• 33:03
  Speaker 3: last time they played them, which was two series ago.
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: The Yankees came into Texas and beat them two out
• 33:09
  Speaker 3: of three, and yes, Texas did win the last game,
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: but look at the scores in those games four to two,
• 33:13
  Speaker 3: three to two, and three zero. And I know Texas
• 33:16
  Speaker 3: very pitcher friendly park. I don't expect this series to
• 33:18
  Speaker 3: be this low scoring. But Texas has good pitching. Yes,
• 33:23
  Speaker 3: all their games at home are much lower like they're
• 33:26
  Speaker 3: really low scoring at home. Yes, I get that, but
• 33:28
  Speaker 3: what I'm pointing out is that all of those games
• 33:30
  Speaker 3: were close. Texas is not a bad team, even though
• 33:33
  Speaker 3: they're below five hundred. They could definitely battle, and they
• 33:36
  Speaker 3: could definitely battle in this matchup, especially given that they're
• 33:39
  Speaker 3: rested coming off two losses. The Yankees are not rested,
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: and they just had a divisional sweep where they blew
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: out Baltimore in every game. That's got to feel pretty satisfying.
• 33:51
  Speaker 3: You know. Baltimore started the series whatever it was like,
• 33:54
  Speaker 3: five games back, four games back of the Yankees, and
• 33:56
  Speaker 3: now they're nine games back after that. Whatever it was,
• 33:59
  Speaker 3: is that how it worked, whatever it was, Yeah, so
• 34:03
  Speaker 3: I guess they were yeah, five games back. Anyway, Like
• 34:06
  Speaker 3: I said, the Yankees looked better than they actually were
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: in these last two games. Yankees had seven runs in
• 34:12
  Speaker 3: the eighth inning when they were only winning the game
• 34:15
  Speaker 3: by one against Baltimore, and they were actually losing that
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: game in the sixth inning two games ago. Then yesterday,
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: I told you misleading result. Yesterday as well, they won
• 34:25
  Speaker 3: twelve to one, but again the box score, it's ridiculous, dude,
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: or sorry, it was ten to ten in hits. I
• 34:30
  Speaker 3: thought it was twelve to ten Baltimore, but no, it's
• 34:33
  Speaker 3: ten to ten. But what I said still applies ten
• 34:37
  Speaker 3: to ten in hits. You never see a game wind
• 34:39
  Speaker 3: up twelve to one like that. And again, the Yankees
• 34:42
  Speaker 3: just erupted against Baltimore's bullpen for three runs in the
• 34:45
  Speaker 3: sixth and six runs in the eighth. You know what
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: bullpen is better than Baltimore's bullpen. Yeah, that'd be the
• 34:52
  Speaker 3: Texas Rangers. The Rangers have a way better bullpen than
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: the Orioles do, so the Rangers are much less likely
• 34:59
  Speaker 3: to get totally ploded like that late in the game,
• 35:02
  Speaker 3: especially with a rested bullpen here where they can use
• 35:04
  Speaker 3: any of their relievers in this game. The Yankees used
• 35:09
  Speaker 3: four relief pitchers yesterday, although they kind of limited the usage,
• 35:12
  Speaker 3: but still they did use four guys. Yeah, well, Texas
• 35:16
  Speaker 3: did not use anybody. As far as the hitting, yeah,
• 35:19
  Speaker 3: the Yankees are the better hitting team. We know that
• 35:21
  Speaker 3: they're third in offense. Texas is in the bottom several.
• 35:25
  Speaker 3: I get that, but I like pitching over offense. You
• 35:28
  Speaker 3: know that if you watch me, Texas is the second
• 35:31
  Speaker 3: best bullpen the Yankees have been fairly decent at eleventh,
• 35:34
  Speaker 3: but yes, Texas does have a bullpen edge and more
• 35:37
  Speaker 3: rested bullpen, and Texas is going with Jacob de Grom.
• 35:42
  Speaker 3: He's been really good, even still at the age of
• 35:44
  Speaker 3: thirty seven. Two point zero one ERA point nine to
• 35:47
  Speaker 3: six whip on the season. Yeah, he's been a little
• 35:50
  Speaker 3: bit worse on the road, but two point four or
• 35:52
  Speaker 3: five is not exactly bad. He did just pitch against
• 35:56
  Speaker 3: the Yankees, so yes, the Yankees did just see him,
• 35:59
  Speaker 3: but he pitched well. He took a loss in the
• 36:02
  Speaker 3: game because he got no runs aboard. He allowed one
• 36:05
  Speaker 3: ear and run on three hits and six innings. I
• 36:07
  Speaker 3: didn't even have to throw one hundred pitches, had five strikeouts.
• 36:11
  Speaker 3: Another good outing from him. He's got a forty to
• 36:13
  Speaker 3: seven strike a walk ratio, twenty three hits, a lot
• 36:15
  Speaker 3: in thirty one and a third innings. Really good numbers
• 36:18
  Speaker 3: from him overall. And yes, the Yankees are familiar with him,
• 36:22
  Speaker 3: but I don't think that's gonna matter that much because
• 36:24
  Speaker 3: this is de Grom. Dude. He's been in the league forever.
• 36:28
  Speaker 3: He's been in the majors for forever. We know this.
• 36:30
  Speaker 3: So the Yankees have a lot of at bats against
• 36:32
  Speaker 3: So the fact that they just faced him, unless you
• 36:36
  Speaker 3: know they have certain hitters who had never faced it before,
• 36:38
  Speaker 3: I don't think it's really gonna help. They have eighty
• 36:40
  Speaker 3: five at bats against him, thirty two strikeouts, five walks,
• 36:44
  Speaker 3: one seventy six average overall. And yeah, the ops is
• 36:48
  Speaker 3: a little bit higher than you'd think at six point
• 36:50
  Speaker 3: fifty eight, but two of them runs apiece from Bellinger
• 36:53
  Speaker 3: and McMahon are skewing those numbers a bit. And obviously
• 36:57
  Speaker 3: he can pitch around, you know, just two in the
• 37:00
  Speaker 3: lineup or whatever. So I like Degram here he's going
• 37:03
  Speaker 3: up against Elmer Rodriguez, who's only made one career start
• 37:07
  Speaker 3: so far. So you know, he has a four point
• 37:10
  Speaker 3: five yrra, which isn't that bad. Two whip And if
• 37:13
  Speaker 3: you remember, I gave out the under in that game,
• 37:15
  Speaker 3: and I believe it was him against Evaldi, I think.
• 37:18
  Speaker 3: And Evaldi pitched really well in the game. He had
• 37:21
  Speaker 3: good numbers against the Yankees, which so does de Gram.
• 37:25
  Speaker 3: Uh so we got the underwright in that game. But
• 37:28
  Speaker 3: here's the thing, man, I always talked about how these
• 37:30
  Speaker 3: young pitchers. Part of my handicap in that game was
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: young pitchers when they get called up, and Rodriguez did
• 37:36
  Speaker 3: look pretty good in Triple A this year, when they
• 37:40
  Speaker 3: get called up, the unfamiliarity is a big advantage to
• 37:43
  Speaker 3: them because the hitters have to figure them out. Well,
• 37:46
  Speaker 3: who did I just say Rodriguez faced in his only
• 37:49
  Speaker 3: start so far? Yeah it was Texas. So guess who's
• 37:53
  Speaker 3: familiar with him now because they just saw him his
• 37:56
  Speaker 3: last start that he made. Yeah, that'd be Texas. So
• 37:58
  Speaker 3: the unfamiliarity edge that he might normally have is not
• 38:02
  Speaker 3: here because he faced Texas in his only stars and
• 38:05
  Speaker 3: now he has to face them again. And he was
• 38:07
  Speaker 3: not lights out in that start. He went four innings
• 38:10
  Speaker 3: through eighty pitches, which is you know, he wasn't that efficient.
• 38:14
  Speaker 3: He held them to tour in runs, so that's good.
• 38:16
  Speaker 3: Give him credit for that. Four hits, allowed four walks
• 38:19
  Speaker 3: though to three strikeouts. And now, yes, you could argue
• 38:21
  Speaker 3: that first start you get nervous. Maybe he's settled in
• 38:25
  Speaker 3: and maybe he'll do better for that reason. So maybe
• 38:27
  Speaker 3: that negates the familiarity a little bit, But I don't
• 38:30
  Speaker 3: think it totally does. I think the unfamiliarity is a
• 38:33
  Speaker 3: big edge. And then when that team just saw him,
• 38:36
  Speaker 3: and now they're recently familiar with them. I think that's
• 38:38
  Speaker 3: a decent edge to the hitting overall Texas, same numbers
• 38:43
  Speaker 3: that we just saw Texas. You know, they did okay
• 38:46
  Speaker 3: against him in fifteen at bats, three strikeouts, four walks,
• 38:49
  Speaker 3: Like I said, two sixty seven average, six eighty eight ohps.
• 38:52
  Speaker 3: They didn't have any extra base hits off him, but
• 38:56
  Speaker 3: he was putting enough guys on base that it's dangerous
• 39:00
  Speaker 3: for me. Man, We're gonna take Texas. That's the play Texas. Uh.
• 39:04
  Speaker 3: I think they have the starting pitching edge and the
• 39:07
  Speaker 3: bullpen edge. Sixty six percent tickets and eighty seven percent
• 39:10
  Speaker 3: of the cash on the Yankees does worry me a
• 39:12
  Speaker 3: little bit. And money coming in on the over as well,
• 39:15
  Speaker 3: which I don't agree with that I would go under
• 39:17
  Speaker 3: probably in this game. Under would be an opinion for
• 39:20
  Speaker 3: me in this game. But I prefer the side. The
• 39:23
  Speaker 3: totals at eight and a half for what that's worth.
• 39:25
  Speaker 3: But we're not in Texas anymore, man, So I'm going
• 39:28
  Speaker 3: with the pitching to win out here. I'm going with
• 39:31
  Speaker 3: what I think should be fading the public, which you
• 39:34
  Speaker 3: can see that it kind of is. I don't know
• 39:35
  Speaker 3: what's going on with the cash percentage there. But yeah,
• 39:38
  Speaker 3: we're gonna take what I think is an undervalued Texas
• 39:41
  Speaker 3: team in this matchup here. You don't get to grama
• 39:44
  Speaker 3: as an underdog too often, man, so we're gonna do
• 39:46
  Speaker 3: it there, Texas Rangers of your team. I like them
• 39:51
  Speaker 3: just because, uh, because they don't hit well and they
• 39:54
  Speaker 3: pitch well, they tend to be an undervalue commodity, and
• 39:57
  Speaker 3: because they underperformed what they're uh what they're numbers would
• 40:01
  Speaker 3: suggest they should have done last year. Like they had
• 40:02
  Speaker 3: a really good run differential last year, the record did
• 40:06
  Speaker 3: not pan out that way. So they underperformed last year too.
• 40:10
  Speaker 3: So coming into this season, you know, they were a
• 40:14
  Speaker 3: decent look to have a better record this year than
• 40:16
  Speaker 3: they did last year. They have one of the best
• 40:18
  Speaker 3: pitching staffs in baseball, so when that's the case, you're
• 40:21
  Speaker 3: always gonna be a threat, like to be a playoff
• 40:24
  Speaker 3: team and whatever. So and I think they are all
• 40:28
  Speaker 3: right Cincinnati at the Cubs. I gotta get through this, man.
• 40:31
  Speaker 3: Plus I have to bring my car in for service
• 40:34
  Speaker 3: in a couple of hours, so that's why I'm early today.
• 40:36
  Speaker 3: I want to get this done. But we don't have
• 40:38
  Speaker 3: too many playoff games to talk about after this. Cincinnati
• 40:41
  Speaker 3: at the Cubs. The Cubs won a close game yesterday,
• 40:43
  Speaker 3: five to four against the Reds. They've won six games
• 40:47
  Speaker 3: in a row. You know, it could be a Reds
• 40:50
  Speaker 3: bounce back here, but it could also just be this
• 40:52
  Speaker 3: is a big divisional series. You're gonna get an effort
• 40:55
  Speaker 3: out of both teams here. As far as the bullpens,
• 40:57
  Speaker 3: the Cubs have the better bullpen. Used four relief pitchers yesterday,
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: though the Reds use three. But the Reds have really
• 41:06
  Speaker 3: fallen off bullpen wise. They're the second worst bullpen whip now,
• 41:10
  Speaker 3: actually tied with the Astros for the worst, even though
• 41:13
  Speaker 3: their ERA is significantly better than that. But they have
• 41:17
  Speaker 3: not been a great bullpen, and the whip suggests that
• 41:19
  Speaker 3: they're worse than their era makes it look. Cubs have
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: been a pretty good bullpen. They're at fifth overall right
• 41:25
  Speaker 3: now in whips, so yes, they have the better bullpen.
• 41:28
  Speaker 3: Cubs also have the better offense. They're at fourth. So
• 41:31
  Speaker 3: this Reds team, I mean, they're again, they're like I
• 41:34
  Speaker 3: keep saying, they're a little bit fraudulent. If you look
• 41:36
  Speaker 3: at the fact that their bullpen's not very good at
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: this point, even though they got off to a hot start,
• 41:42
  Speaker 3: you know, somehow getting away with putting a lot of
• 41:44
  Speaker 3: guys on base. Their offense has been pretty bad all season.
• 41:47
  Speaker 3: They're at twenty fourth, so the Cubs have pretty big
• 41:50
  Speaker 3: edges here in the bullpen and in the hitting. Starting
• 41:55
  Speaker 3: pitching maybe not as much. But Andrew y Abot is
• 41:58
  Speaker 3: pitching for the Reds, and well, you know, if you
• 42:01
  Speaker 3: look at his career, he's obviously better than what his
• 42:03
  Speaker 3: numbers look like this year, but he hasn't been good
• 42:06
  Speaker 3: this year. Five point nine to seven ERA, one point
• 42:09
  Speaker 3: six to seven WHIP. He's been better on the road
• 42:11
  Speaker 3: four point five roady ra. He's really struggled so far
• 42:15
  Speaker 3: this year at home in what is a hitter friendly ballpark,
• 42:17
  Speaker 3: even though he is used to it. He's pitched for
• 42:20
  Speaker 3: Cincinnati for I think his whole career, so even though
• 42:22
  Speaker 3: he's still fairly young. But yeah, I mean, I expect
• 42:25
  Speaker 3: his numbers to get better than this, but he's not
• 42:28
  Speaker 3: pitching well. He had a good start in his last
• 42:31
  Speaker 3: outing though, at home against the Rockies. I know they're
• 42:33
  Speaker 3: not a good offense, but maybe that means he's trending
• 42:36
  Speaker 3: a little bit in the right direction, and the Reds
• 42:38
  Speaker 3: somehow won four of his last five outings. But that's
• 42:41
  Speaker 3: one of the things with the Reds is the record
• 42:44
  Speaker 3: looks good because they're getting away with all these close wins,
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: so I think they're getting a little bit lucky. Abbott
• 42:49
  Speaker 3: as a really ugly twenty four to fifteen strikeout walk
• 42:52
  Speaker 3: ratio and thirty four and two thirds innings. Forty three
• 42:55
  Speaker 3: hits allowed as well, so that's too many hits allowed,
• 42:57
  Speaker 3: too many walks allowed, not enough strike outs. These numbers
• 43:01
  Speaker 3: are just not very goods numbers against the Cubs, believe
• 43:05
  Speaker 3: it or not, are pretty good in ninety three at bats,
• 43:07
  Speaker 3: one to eighty three, batting average allowed in five to
• 43:10
  Speaker 3: ninety two oh ps. So we have a big sample here,
• 43:12
  Speaker 3: and Abbott has done well against the Cubs except for
• 43:15
  Speaker 3: sixteen to eleven strike out walk ratio. That's bad, but
• 43:19
  Speaker 3: the rest of his numbers do look good. He's going
• 43:22
  Speaker 3: up against Jamison tye On, who has been the better
• 43:25
  Speaker 3: pitcher of the two on the season. Four point four
• 43:27
  Speaker 3: to one ERA not great, but one point one to
• 43:30
  Speaker 3: five whip is pretty solid. He's been fine this year.
• 43:33
  Speaker 3: He's been pretty good at home as well, three point
• 43:36
  Speaker 3: seven to eight ERA at home. He's allowed more than
• 43:39
  Speaker 3: three or runs only twice this season. Cubs have won
• 43:42
  Speaker 3: his last four outings. Thirty one to thirteen strike out
• 43:46
  Speaker 3: walk ratio that's decent. It's not great, but it's pretty good.
• 43:50
  Speaker 3: And twenty seven hits allowed in thirty four and two
• 43:52
  Speaker 3: thirds ending, so he hasn't allowed a lot of hits.
• 43:55
  Speaker 3: Ty On definitely has the better numbers on the season,
• 43:57
  Speaker 3: but his matchup numbers are not as good abbots are.
• 44:01
  Speaker 3: He has one hundred and six at bats against the Reds.
• 44:03
  Speaker 3: Twenty one to five strike out walk ratio is good
• 44:06
  Speaker 3: against them, two sixty four average, a lot eight forty
• 44:08
  Speaker 3: one ops, so the ops is high. Man, He's a
• 44:11
  Speaker 3: lot of seven home runs to them and eight doubles,
• 44:15
  Speaker 3: so that's kind of the problem. You know, I don't
• 44:19
  Speaker 3: know if you could fully trust the Cubs in the
• 44:22
  Speaker 3: starting pitching aspect of this year. What does the money
• 44:26
  Speaker 3: look like here? The money looks like it is hitting
• 44:29
  Speaker 3: the the Reds Here. The Cubs have fifty eight percent
• 44:31
  Speaker 3: of tickets. The Reds have seventy two percent of the
• 44:33
  Speaker 3: cash money coming in on the over For some reason,
• 44:36
  Speaker 3: although this looks like it's not a wind blowing out
• 44:39
  Speaker 3: type of game like it was yesterday. The total was
• 44:42
  Speaker 3: like twelve yesterday, which means the wind was blowing out.
• 44:45
  Speaker 3: Today it's eight in Wrigley, So that means the wind
• 44:48
  Speaker 3: is not blowing out. I don't know if it means
• 44:51
  Speaker 3: it's necessarily blowing in, but you know, it means that
• 44:54
  Speaker 3: the wind is not going to be carrying the balls
• 44:56
  Speaker 3: as far today. I don't I really have a good
• 45:00
  Speaker 3: opinion there. It's really this game just there are just
• 45:03
  Speaker 3: too many conflicting factors in this game in general for
• 45:06
  Speaker 3: me to want to do anything with it. The Cubs
• 45:08
  Speaker 3: are somewhere around the minus one sixty price here. The
• 45:12
  Speaker 3: money is coming in at Cincinnati. I would say that
• 45:14
  Speaker 3: if you are going to play Cincinnati, I would make
• 45:16
  Speaker 3: it a first five inning play and just go with
• 45:18
  Speaker 3: the starting pitching matchup numbers because Cincinnati is at a
• 45:22
  Speaker 3: bullpen disadvantage in that game. So that is what I
• 45:25
  Speaker 3: would say about it. Cleveland at Kansas City. I thought
• 45:28
  Speaker 3: Cleveland had a good spot yesterday, catching Kansas City returning
• 45:32
  Speaker 3: home from a road trip to the Pacific Coast and
• 45:35
  Speaker 3: after sweeping Seattle, But that didn't happen. Kansas City won
• 45:40
  Speaker 3: again yesterday in a bad spot against Cleveland, so maybe
• 45:44
  Speaker 3: Cleveland bounce is back in this one. I don't know, man,
• 45:47
  Speaker 3: but Kansas City got the win yesterday. Kansas City, their
• 45:50
  Speaker 3: bullpen's really struggled so far out of this year, but
• 45:52
  Speaker 3: they're pretty rested right now. The only US two guys yesterday,
• 45:56
  Speaker 3: and they used them in a pretty limited fashion. Cleveland,
• 46:00
  Speaker 3: they're bupen struggled a little bit this year as well,
• 46:01
  Speaker 3: these three relief pitchers yesterday. Neither bullpen ranks very well
• 46:07
  Speaker 3: right now. Let me see, Cleveland is thirteenth right now
• 46:11
  Speaker 3: bullpen whip, but the eras in the fours. The Royals
• 46:14
  Speaker 3: are twenty fourth, but they have been improving, so they
• 46:18
  Speaker 3: were right near the bottom and their ERA is still
• 46:21
  Speaker 3: close to five, so I don't know if you can
• 46:22
  Speaker 3: really trust them, but they have been on the rise,
• 46:25
  Speaker 3: at least Kansas City's bullpen. The offenses are not very good.
• 46:29
  Speaker 3: Cleveland's at twentieth. The Royals have actually moved up a
• 46:32
  Speaker 3: little bit to fourteenth, but I don't think either offense
• 46:35
  Speaker 3: is really that good. Maybe the Royals are the slightly
• 46:38
  Speaker 3: better offense here. I think Cleveland probably has the better
• 46:41
  Speaker 3: starting pitcher. Gavin Williams is pitching. He's having a good
• 46:45
  Speaker 3: season two point seven ERA, one point two whip. He
• 46:49
  Speaker 3: hasn't been good on the road though, four point three
• 46:51
  Speaker 3: ERA on the road, so he has pretty significant home roads.
• 46:54
  Speaker 3: Let's go against him in this matchup. But he's pitching
• 46:58
  Speaker 3: well generally. He's got a lot of strikes bouts fifty
• 47:00
  Speaker 3: three strikeouts and forty three to third inning. He's only
• 47:03
  Speaker 3: twenty five hits allowed, so he's been very difficult to hit.
• 47:06
  Speaker 3: He's been fooling hitters. His wildness has been a little bit,
• 47:09
  Speaker 3: a little bit of a concern with nineteen walks, but
• 47:13
  Speaker 3: that number's gone down. He's walked two or fewer and
• 47:15
  Speaker 3: five straight outings now and Cleveland has won six straight
• 47:19
  Speaker 3: starts of his He's pitching well right now. Man not
• 47:23
  Speaker 3: necessarily somebody that'd want to fade right now, and his
• 47:26
  Speaker 3: numbers against the Royals are good, so even though he's
• 47:28
  Speaker 3: not good on the road, the rest of his numbers
• 47:30
  Speaker 3: do look pretty good, except for the walk number. Again
• 47:33
  Speaker 3: here against Kansas City one hundred eight at bats, he's
• 47:36
  Speaker 3: got twenty four strikeouts twelve walks. Though against Kansas City.
• 47:40
  Speaker 3: So again that's the one drawback, the wild, the wild
• 47:43
  Speaker 3: side of Williams. Wild dude, he should be wild thing,
• 47:47
  Speaker 3: wild thing Williams. There you go. He's Greg Vaughan. Basically,
• 47:51
  Speaker 3: he's on the Indians, So there you go. One sixty
• 47:55
  Speaker 3: oh though he's not a relief pitcher. One sixty seven
• 47:57
  Speaker 3: batting average allowed five to sixty five. Ohp yes, good
• 48:01
  Speaker 3: numbers against the Royals. And now I hear landscaping lawnmowing
• 48:05
  Speaker 3: going on outside right now, which is really gonna irritate
• 48:07
  Speaker 3: me while I'm trying to do this. Stevin Colek is
• 48:10
  Speaker 3: pitching for the Royals and he's being activated from the
• 48:15
  Speaker 3: injured list. He's been injured all seasons so far, so
• 48:17
  Speaker 3: this is gonna be his first start of the season.
• 48:19
  Speaker 3: I didn't look at what he did in the minor
• 48:21
  Speaker 3: league as far as rehab because I just didn't want
• 48:23
  Speaker 3: to make a play on this game anyway. But Coleck
• 48:27
  Speaker 3: was kind of a mystery last year. He spent a
• 48:29
  Speaker 3: lot of the season last year with San Diego and
• 48:32
  Speaker 3: then Kansas City got him at the trade deadline. The
• 48:34
  Speaker 3: one really weird thing about him last year was his
• 48:37
  Speaker 3: home road splits. Made no sense given that San Diego's
• 48:40
  Speaker 3: pitcher friendly park, or is Kansas City was last year.
• 48:44
  Speaker 3: Then they moved their walls in. But he was bad
• 48:47
  Speaker 3: at home last year pitching in pitcher friendly parks. I
• 48:50
  Speaker 3: don't know how he was as bad as he was
• 48:52
  Speaker 3: at home last year five point five to eight homey RA,
• 48:55
  Speaker 3: so that is kind of a problem overall. Last year,
• 49:02
  Speaker 3: you know, he was pretty good with Kansas City. Though
• 49:05
  Speaker 3: Kansas City had him for five starts. He had a
• 49:07
  Speaker 3: one point nine to one ERA and point seven to
• 49:09
  Speaker 3: six whip with them. His strikeout rate was low. He
• 49:11
  Speaker 3: doesn't strike a lot of guys out, but he didn't
• 49:13
  Speaker 3: put a lot of guys on base at all, didn't
• 49:15
  Speaker 3: allow a lot of walks or hits. So yeah, I mean,
• 49:18
  Speaker 3: obviously it is possible Colic does pitch well here. You know,
• 49:23
  Speaker 3: again he did well with k C last year. His
• 49:26
  Speaker 3: numbers against Cleveland are not that good though it's a
• 49:28
  Speaker 3: small twenty two at bat sample, one to one strike
• 49:31
  Speaker 3: out walk ratio three eighteen batting average allowed him seven
• 49:35
  Speaker 3: to fifty seven ops, so those numbers are not that good.
• 49:40
  Speaker 3: So I du lean Cleveland here. I think Williams does
• 49:42
  Speaker 3: have the upper hand in that starting pitching matchup and
• 49:45
  Speaker 3: the bullpens are kind of hard to figure out. The
• 49:47
  Speaker 3: money is coming in on Kansas City. I don't really
• 49:50
  Speaker 3: get it. Fifty six percent of the tickets are on Cleveland,
• 49:53
  Speaker 3: eighty percent of the cash on Kansas City. That makes
• 49:55
  Speaker 3: no sense to me. I don't see why the public
• 49:58
  Speaker 3: would not be on Kansas City after they've won whatever
• 50:01
  Speaker 3: four or five games in a row. Cleveland is favored
• 50:06
  Speaker 3: as a small favorite here at around minus one eighteen
• 50:09
  Speaker 3: or so. Totals at seven and a half, so the
• 50:12
  Speaker 3: total is expecting this to be a pitching duel here.
• 50:16
  Speaker 3: You know, I could see that being the case. I
• 50:18
  Speaker 3: worry about colex matchup numbers. I don't like the bullpens either.
• 50:22
  Speaker 3: I think if you do go under in this game,
• 50:23
  Speaker 3: you probably want to limit it to first five. But yeah,
• 50:27
  Speaker 3: I don't love the game at all. Milwaukee at Saint Louis.
• 50:32
  Speaker 3: I thought Milwaukee was in a good spot man yesterday
• 50:34
  Speaker 3: and Saint Louis won anyway, Saint Louis was coming off
• 50:37
  Speaker 3: losing along win streak and had just played the Dodgers,
• 50:40
  Speaker 3: so I thought it was a bad spot for Saint
• 50:43
  Speaker 3: Louis coming into this one. I thought Milwaukee was in
• 50:45
  Speaker 3: a bounce back after losing to Washington, and Milwaukee, in
• 50:49
  Speaker 3: my opinion, is the better team. I mean, I think
• 50:51
  Speaker 3: objectively they're the better team, but that didn't happen. Saint
• 50:55
  Speaker 3: Louis won again yesterday, and again I'm gonna say I
• 50:57
  Speaker 3: don't think Saint Louis is anywhere near as good as
• 50:59
  Speaker 3: this record is. I think you're gonna want to be
• 51:01
  Speaker 3: looking to fade this team. I think Milwaukee is better
• 51:04
  Speaker 3: than Saint Louis Is, but they're hitting has really struggled
• 51:08
  Speaker 3: so far, and Saint Louis hasn't. Saint Louis doesn't have
• 51:11
  Speaker 3: a good bullpen, and they used five relief pitchers yesterday,
• 51:14
  Speaker 3: so that's a problem. Milwaukee did use four, and their
• 51:17
  Speaker 3: bullpen hasn't been that good either, But Saint Louis their
• 51:20
  Speaker 3: twenty fifth and bullpen whip one and a half and
• 51:22
  Speaker 3: their ERA is almost five, so that's pretty ugly. The
• 51:26
  Speaker 3: Brewers era and the bullpen is in the three as,
• 51:29
  Speaker 3: although their whip is a bit higher than that, but
• 51:31
  Speaker 3: they ranked nineteenth and whip still better than Saint Louis.
• 51:36
  Speaker 3: Hitting wise, Yes, Saint Louis has been a surprise. They're
• 51:39
  Speaker 3: at eighth in offensive ops right now, Milwaukee twenty third. Again,
• 51:44
  Speaker 3: Milwaukee has had a lot of guys out of the
• 51:46
  Speaker 3: lineup with injuries tho, although they still do. But I
• 51:49
  Speaker 3: think there's less of a gap between these offenses than
• 51:51
  Speaker 3: that might suggest. But I don't think Milwaukee is really
• 51:55
  Speaker 3: a team you could back in this spot with Brandon
• 51:58
  Speaker 3: Sprout on the road, on the road, even though there
• 52:01
  Speaker 3: should be a bounce back spot or Brandon's Sprot on
• 52:04
  Speaker 3: the mound, I mean to say, but yes, he is
• 52:06
  Speaker 3: on the road as well. You know, Milwaukee they should
• 52:10
  Speaker 3: be in a bounced back spot here, and yes they're
• 52:12
  Speaker 3: better than the record looks. But I don't think Sprot
• 52:15
  Speaker 3: is the guy that you really want to try to
• 52:18
  Speaker 3: you know, you want to try to back Milwaukee when
• 52:20
  Speaker 3: they have pitching. I don't know, I don't know what
• 52:22
  Speaker 3: better way to phrase that. But six point seventy five RA,
• 52:26
  Speaker 3: one point six to one whip, that's bad. He has
• 52:28
  Speaker 3: a seven road y RA bad, twenty five to fifteen
• 52:32
  Speaker 3: strike a walk ratio way too many walks, seven home
• 52:35
  Speaker 3: runs allowed, that's bad, twenty eight hits allowed in twenty
• 52:38
  Speaker 3: six to two thirds innings, None of these numbers are good, dude,
• 52:42
  Speaker 3: and he's had a lot of shorter starts as well. Sprot,
• 52:46
  Speaker 3: you know, they got him over from the Mets, and
• 52:48
  Speaker 3: he just has not been a good pitcher. Maybe he
• 52:51
  Speaker 3: has some advantage here because Saint Louis has never faced
• 52:53
  Speaker 3: him before, but I don't know if that's gonna be enough.
• 52:56
  Speaker 3: I don't trust Sprot. He's just not pitching well, so
• 52:59
  Speaker 3: that's I have to say there. But I don't like
• 53:01
  Speaker 3: Andre Payante either for the Cardinals. Even though his three
• 53:05
  Speaker 3: point seven to three ERA looks pretty good, one point
• 53:08
  Speaker 3: three to one whip is not that great. He's been
• 53:10
  Speaker 3: really bad at home five point two to EIGHTYRA. Don't
• 53:14
  Speaker 3: know why because this is a more picture friendly ballpark
• 53:16
  Speaker 3: at Saint Louis, but he's been bad at home. Overall,
• 53:19
  Speaker 3: numbers not very good. Twenty six to fourteen, strike out
• 53:22
  Speaker 3: walk ratio, twenty seven hits a lot, and thirty one
• 53:26
  Speaker 3: to third innings. That's fine, but he doesn't strike a
• 53:28
  Speaker 3: lot of guys out too many walks. He kind of
• 53:30
  Speaker 3: gets away with it with inducing a bunch of ground balls.
• 53:34
  Speaker 3: I don't like Payonte man. I know he's allowed two
• 53:36
  Speaker 3: or fewer earned runs and all of his starts, but
• 53:39
  Speaker 3: his underlying well not even underlying, but these other numbers,
• 53:42
  Speaker 3: like the walk number, just really really what raises me.
• 53:45
  Speaker 3: I'm not a huge fan of his. His numbers against
• 53:47
  Speaker 3: Milwaukee are also bad. In fifty five at bats, seven strikeouts,
• 53:51
  Speaker 3: eleven walks, that's not good, three twenty seven average allowed,
• 53:55
  Speaker 3: nine to thirty oh ps allowed. So yeah, this is
• 53:58
  Speaker 3: not an ideal Payonte, and he's not that good at
• 54:02
  Speaker 3: home either. I think what I would do in this game.
• 54:07
  Speaker 3: I still kind of lean to Milwaukee here, and I
• 54:09
  Speaker 3: think they do have the better bullpen as well. The
• 54:12
  Speaker 3: money is slightly on Saint Louis, but they look public
• 54:15
  Speaker 3: eighty four percent of tickets, eighty five percent of the
• 54:17
  Speaker 3: cash on them. They're a small favorite. You can get
• 54:19
  Speaker 3: Milwaukee at maybe a slight underdog price. I agree with that,
• 54:23
  Speaker 3: but I think maybe what I would do is go
• 54:25
  Speaker 3: Milwaukee over their team total. The full game total is
• 54:28
  Speaker 3: at about eight, but they're facing Payonte, who doesn't do
• 54:32
  Speaker 3: well against them, doesn't duell at home, and Saint Louis's
• 54:34
  Speaker 3: bullpen is kind of a mess and use a lot
• 54:37
  Speaker 3: of guys, so I think Milwaukee might be able to
• 54:39
  Speaker 3: get some runs on the board in this game. That
• 54:41
  Speaker 3: is probably the way that I would approach that game.
• 54:45
  Speaker 3: Still also do lean to Milwaukee, but it's not it's
• 54:49
  Speaker 3: not gonna be a play for me with the Milwaukee
• 54:52
  Speaker 3: team total. What that does is it takes Sprout out
• 54:55
  Speaker 3: of the equation pretty much, and he's the most difficult
• 54:58
  Speaker 3: part of this handicap to figure out. So the money
• 55:01
  Speaker 3: seems to be indicating towards the over a bit as
• 55:04
  Speaker 3: well for what that's worth. Wouldn't really disagree with that,
• 55:09
  Speaker 3: So you know, do with that information what you want.
• 55:12
  Speaker 3: As I always say, the Dodgers at Houston Dodgers one
• 55:16
  Speaker 3: eight to three yesterday. Houston, as we were discussing earlier,
• 55:19
  Speaker 3: Houston has a terrible bullpen and they basically went with
• 55:22
  Speaker 3: a bullpen game yesterday. They started oa Kurt, which did
• 55:26
  Speaker 3: not look good. They used five relief pitchers yesterday, and
• 55:30
  Speaker 3: they have a bad bullpen. They have the worst bullpen
• 55:33
  Speaker 3: in baseball. And again it's not even really close point
• 55:36
  Speaker 3: one gap in whip from between them and the Reds,
• 55:41
  Speaker 3: who have the next worst whip. Houston has a six
• 55:44
  Speaker 3: point two to two Bullpennie Ray, which is almost a
• 55:46
  Speaker 3: run higher than the next worst bullpenny array. I believe,
• 55:50
  Speaker 3: really really really bad stuff, kind of unbelievable. Houston's still
• 55:55
  Speaker 3: a pretty good offense at fifth, but the Dodgers have
• 55:58
  Speaker 3: the better offense at second uh and debatably they're the
• 56:02
  Speaker 3: best offense. Dodgers also have a pretty good bullpen their
• 56:05
  Speaker 3: third right now, and bullpen whip. Their bullpen's been pretty
• 56:08
  Speaker 3: impressive this year, even though last year that was their
• 56:11
  Speaker 3: main week suit. Last year that was their achilles heel.
• 56:16
  Speaker 3: Not really anymore. Also, it looks like the Dodgers probably
• 56:20
  Speaker 3: have a starting pitching ad. Sho hey Otani is pitching
• 56:22
  Speaker 3: today and they haven't had him in the lineup when
• 56:26
  Speaker 3: he's been pitching, so that probably means he's not gonna
• 56:28
  Speaker 3: hit in the game today because they want him to
• 56:30
  Speaker 3: focus on pitching. I guess, you know, it might mean.
• 56:34
  Speaker 3: I don't know what it means. Like after what I
• 56:37
  Speaker 3: would do is you know how after I don't know
• 56:39
  Speaker 3: how the DH rule works now, but I think after
• 56:41
  Speaker 3: you take or after you decide or no, because I
• 56:44
  Speaker 3: guess you replace him, right, I think they should do
• 56:46
  Speaker 3: a double switch. You can do that, right. I don't
• 56:49
  Speaker 3: know if the Dodgers do this or not. But if
• 56:51
  Speaker 3: he's not in the starting lineup when he's done pitching,
• 56:54
  Speaker 3: what I would do is do a double switch, and
• 56:56
  Speaker 3: I would leave him in the game, put him in
• 56:59
  Speaker 3: the line and put the relief pitcher in for the
• 57:03
  Speaker 3: dh That's what I would do if I was their manager.
• 57:06
  Speaker 3: If you're allowed to do that, so then Otani hits
• 57:08
  Speaker 3: for the rest of the game, you know what I mean.
• 57:11
  Speaker 3: But whatever, He's got a point six er point eighty
• 57:14
  Speaker 3: seven whip this year, good numbers. Obviously, his e R
• 57:17
  Speaker 3: on the road is zero, although it's a very small sample.
• 57:22
  Speaker 3: He's only allowed two runs so far this year in
• 57:25
  Speaker 3: five starts, both of those at home. Obviously, somehow, the
• 57:30
  Speaker 3: Dodgers lost three out of five of his start, so
• 57:33
  Speaker 3: he gets no run support, which is kind of ridiculous.
• 57:36
  Speaker 3: He has thirty four strikeouts, nine walks, only seventeen hits
• 57:39
  Speaker 3: a lot of thirty innings. Otani, Yeah, I mean, he's
• 57:44
  Speaker 3: he's the best player in baseball. Man. He's the most versatile.
• 57:47
  Speaker 3: We know it. He's a he's is he good at gambling?
• 57:50
  Speaker 3: I don't know. He has that in his toolbox as well.
• 57:55
  Speaker 3: But whatever he pitches well, he hits well. He could
• 57:59
  Speaker 3: do it all. We know all this numbers against Houston,
• 58:03
  Speaker 3: which we get to actually see them because ESPN has
• 58:07
  Speaker 3: updated him to a starting pitcher against We could see this.
• 58:10
  Speaker 3: Sixty three at bats worth, eighteen to eight, strike out
• 58:12
  Speaker 3: walk ratio, two thirty eight batting average allowed, six seventy
• 58:16
  Speaker 3: three oh ps. So, yeah, he pitches pretty well against
• 58:18
  Speaker 3: Houston when he's faced them before. He should pitch well again,
• 58:23
  Speaker 3: you know, I mean not going out on the limbs
• 58:25
  Speaker 3: saying that Peter Lambert is pitching for Houston. He's kind
• 58:27
  Speaker 3: of a mystery right now. His numbers have not been
• 58:29
  Speaker 3: bad so far. Three point five two ERA, one point
• 58:32
  Speaker 3: two four WHIP. He started his career with Colorado and
• 58:36
  Speaker 3: he was I think a pretty high draft pick for Colorado.
• 58:39
  Speaker 3: Never worked out. He's twenty nine years I mean, he
• 58:42
  Speaker 3: worked out like he exercised, and I mean he didn't
• 58:45
  Speaker 3: work out as a pitcher, you know what I mean.
• 58:48
  Speaker 3: He's twenty nine years old now in his career. Never
• 58:50
  Speaker 3: took off. But he's been okay this year so far,
• 58:57
  Speaker 3: you know, not great, but nineteen strikeouts at fifteen to
• 58:59
  Speaker 3: third inning, seven walks, twelve hits allowed. That's not awful.
• 59:03
  Speaker 3: He's only made one home start, which was his first start.
• 59:06
  Speaker 3: He gave it four runs in that one. We won
• 59:08
  Speaker 3: on the over in that game. Luckily. The bullpens were
• 59:12
  Speaker 3: obviously part of that equation though, and the bullpens got
• 59:15
  Speaker 3: destroyed in that game, especially Houston's bullpen. Lambert actually didn't
• 59:20
  Speaker 3: pitch that bat in that game though. Lambert has faced
• 59:23
  Speaker 3: the Dodgers though, because he was on Colorado, so the
• 59:26
  Speaker 3: Dodgers have actually seen him a little bit in the past.
• 59:29
  Speaker 3: Thirty two at bats seven to three, strike at walk
• 59:31
  Speaker 3: ratio two to fifty average, allowed eight forty six ops.
• 59:34
  Speaker 3: So Lambert, It's been a while since the Dodgers have
• 59:38
  Speaker 3: faced him, but they certainly are capable of hitting him.
• 59:41
  Speaker 3: This game is on TBS for some reason, probably because
• 59:45
  Speaker 3: Otani is pitching. You know, that's gonna draw viewers. Probably,
• 59:50
  Speaker 3: I don't know. Baseball just generally isn't drawing viewers anymoe.
• 59:53
  Speaker 3: You guys probably saw it last night. There was nobody
• 59:56
  Speaker 3: in the stands at the Red Sox Tigers game. That
• 59:58
  Speaker 3: was because of the weather. It was a weird situation, man,
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 3: everybody's just a pussy now because of the weather. The
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 3: stadium actually told everybody to leave, but then continued the game,
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 3: or they told everybody to go inside or something. I
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 3: don't know what they were doing in Detroit, Man, it
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 3: makes no sense. Are we like men or are we
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 3: not men? Here? Man? Like? If the game is still
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 3: going on, why can't people be in the stands watching it?
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean? It makes no sense to me. Yeah,
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 3: I mean, I don't know. That was very, very bizarre.
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 3: But whatever, I've never seen anything like that. Everything is
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 3: becoming massively pussified anyway. Yeah, I'm I'm not a fan
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 3: of any of that. I'm not a fan of those
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 3: trends anyway. What the hell are we even talking about here?
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 3: What game?
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 5: Oh?
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 3: Yeah, Dodgers. Dodgers are a huge favorite. I mean they're
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 3: laying like minus two thirty here. The numbers actually gone
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 3: down a little bit. You can't lay a price like
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 3: that on the money line. I mean, if you want
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 3: to attack it, you know, I guess you could do
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 3: the same thing you did yesterday. Dodgers over the team total.
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 3: I don't like it as much as I liked it yesterday.
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 3: But you're still getting the Houston bullpen in the equation.
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 3: They're not really not a really rested bullpen. But Lambert
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 3: is a little bit more trustworthy at least than whatever
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 3: the hell they were doing yesterday with Okurt start, you know,
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 3: getting the start in a bullpend game, or you know,
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 3: if you wanted to go Houston under their team total,
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 3: I guess that's an option as well. With Otani plus
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 3: the Dodgers' bullpen, they could hold them a check a bit.
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 3: I don't know, man, I mean, I guess you could
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 3: lay the run line with the Dodgers. Again here, they
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 3: do have a big advantage in the game eighty five
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 3: percent of tickets, only seventy one percent of the cash
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 3: on the Dodgers though, so they are a public side.
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 3: So I certainly don't want to do it. But you know,
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 3: just if you want ways to play this game, I'm
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 3: not recommending it, but I'm just you know, giving you
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 3: options if you are a total degenerate and you have
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 3: to do it, if you're gonna do it, I would say,
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 3: just put like pizza Pizza mon on these games, though, man, Like,
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 3: you know, the actual plays I'm giving out are my
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 3: actual strong opinions. Some of these games, like this one,
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 3: it's like, yeah, I mean, you're you're paying for entertainment value.
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 3: If you're gonna bet on a game like this, unless
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 3: you actually have a better angle than I do on it,
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 3: the money's coming out on the under a little bit
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 3: in that game. Not sure that I would agree with that.
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna never play an under in a Houston bullpen
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 3: game first five innings. I mean, I guess maybe there's
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 3: an argument for that, but I'm not gonna do it. Tyson.
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 3: What's up, Kyle? What's up? Thanks for hanging out? All right?
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 3: I apologize I started early because I gotta bring my
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 3: car over for the for it it's annual check up man,
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 3: or whatever the hell it is. It's due man. Hopefully
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 3: my Bronco is doing all right. But now you guys
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 3: know what I drive, so you're gonna be able to
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 3: find me. We have five games left for at the
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 3: hour mark. I'm like, I'm like clockwork, man, you know
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 3: what that means. I'm gonna take a quick break. I'll
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 3: come back finish this off. I have one play in
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 3: the in the one hockey game today. I have a play,
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 3: and the way that I talked about it earlier, you
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 3: might be able to guess what it is. I'll be
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 3: right back that's the only play I have left, So
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 3: Texas Rangers are my only play I've given out on
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 3: the show so far. Rangers money line. I'll be right
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 3: back all right. What was I doing here? Oh yes,
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 3: let's zoom back out or zoom back in. I mean, okay,
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 3: next game is Mets Colorado. One thing I forgot to
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 3: mention about this game yesterday is the Mets got swept
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 3: at home by Colorado not long ago, so they might
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 3: have an extra motivational advantage here. They did win the
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 3: game yesterday four to two, even though I believe they
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 3: wound up going with David Peterson after an opener and
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 3: he was okay. They actually had two pictures starting from
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 3: of him, which that would not have given me a
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 3: lot of confidence in the Mets yesterday. But they mixed
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 3: and matched their pitchers and they actually did pretty well yesterday.
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 3: And Sugano was okay ish in the game yesterday as well.
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 3: Very surprising, actually low scoring game, mister Penzi. Thanks for
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 3: hanging out as far as this game, you know, I mean,
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 3: the Mets do have certain advantages here. There's still the
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 3: better team, which is why they're favored on the road,
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 3: even though there they have a really bad record they got.
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 3: They used four relief pitchers yesterday, which is not great
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 3: yet because it was a bullpen game pretty much. Colorado
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 3: used three relief pitchers yesterday. But the Mets do generally
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 3: have the better bullpen. They're at sixth in bullpen whip.
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 3: Colorado has kind of fallen off. They're at seventeenth right now.
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 3: Their bullpen is not doing that well. Hitting wise, Colorado
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 3: remains pretty good. They're at tenth in OPS. The Mets
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 3: are thirtieth dead last still, so yeah, the Rocket do
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 3: actually have the better offense right now. Bullpen goes to
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 3: the Mets, though, and I think starting pitching, you got
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 3: to give the edge to the Mets just looking at
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 3: the starting pitchers on the surface. Freddy Peralt does pitching
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 3: for the Mets. He is pretty good. Three point five
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 3: two ERA, one point two whip. He's a veteran. I mean,
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 3: he's not going to be intimidated by pitching a course field.
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 3: I haven't actually looked at what his numbers are in
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 3: the past and course field, but he's been pretty good
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 3: both home and away. Doesn't have significant splits this year.
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 3: He's allowed three or fourer earned runs in every outing
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 3: since his first start of the season, so he's pitching consistently.
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 3: His only problem is the walks are too high forty
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 3: two strikeouts, sixteen walks, and thirty eight to the third
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 3: innings thirty hits allowed. He's got to get the walk
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 3: number down. But other than that, he's been good and
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 3: he's still not along a lot of runs, but the
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 3: Mets are giving him no run support. So they've lost
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 3: four games in a row that he started, and none
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 3: of it was his fault. Really, he pitched fine in
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 3: every one of those games against Colorado. His numbers are
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 3: not as good as you would think. It's sixty eth b,
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 3: twenty strikeouts, eight walks. That walk number is also kind
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 3: of high. Two fifty batting average allowed eight twenty two ops,
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 3: so that's not great. Uh. Tovar is really the guy
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 3: that does a lot of the damage, though, five for
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 3: twelve the two of them runs, so if you take
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 3: him out, the numbers look a bit better. I think
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 3: Peralta should pitch okay here, though he is going up
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 3: against Michael Lorenz and he's not had a good season
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 3: six point h nine ERA, one point seven to six whip.
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 3: I think his transition to Colorado is kind of a
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 3: problem because I think he's more of a fly ball pitcher,
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 3: and his homeoad splits are bad. He's been really bad
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 3: in course field so far. Eight point five six ERA
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 3: at home. That's pretty bad obviously, so he's struggled in
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 3: course field. Actually, his grandpa on flyball rate is not
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 3: that bad. Twenty four to nine strike out walk ratio.
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 3: I mean, he doesn't walk a ton of guys, but
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 3: he's alloted six home runs on the believe it or not,
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 3: only two of them have been at home. He's a
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 3: lot fifty one hits in thirty four innings though, so
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 3: he's been way too hit a ball, even though he
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 3: doesn't walk that many guys. It's basically just like he's
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 3: just putting the ball over the plate too much. Doesn't
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 3: strike a lot of guys out either. Not not a
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 3: very trustworthy pitcher Lorenzen against the Mets, though he does
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 3: actually have good numbers. It's sixty five at bats two
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 3: forty six average, allowed six to twenty three oh ps,
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 3: ten to two strike out walk ratio, and he actually
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 3: did just hold the Mets to one run in seven
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 3: innings two starts a go in New York though, but
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 3: he pitched well in that game, But then again, pitching
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 3: a course field is a different environment, man, But his
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 3: numbers generally do look pretty good against the Mets, so
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 3: I'm not really sure I want to fade lorenz And
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 3: by the way, Peralta pitched in that series as well,
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 3: and he helped Colorado to tour in runs of five
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 3: to two thirds, eight strikeouts, three walks. Kind of a
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 3: typical Peralta start there, but of course his team gave
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 3: him no run support and he lost the game. This
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 3: is a game I'm passing on as well. Obviously, the
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 3: money looks it's coming in towards Colorado sixty eight percent
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 3: to take a sixty three percent of the cash on
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 3: the Mets. The Mets are around minus one sixty on
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 3: the money line. It's a bit of a beefy price, man,
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 3: especially because Lorenzo at least has good matchup numbers against
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 3: the Mets, even though he's been pretty bad at home.
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 3: But remember the Mets are also their offense has been
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 3: very weak this year too, though, you know, the totals
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 3: sitting at ten. Don't see the percentages on it yet.
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 3: Maybe it kind of sounds insane, but you know, maybe
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 3: this yesterday's game went way under. I mean, these are
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 3: offenses that aren't really that impressive. Maybe under first five
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 3: innings makes sense in this game, man, you know, I
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 3: think the Mets should win with Peralta against Lorenzen and
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 3: then the bullpen advantage as well. But you know, it's
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 3: it is a bit pricey, Like I don't know, if
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 3: you can somehow find a money line that's in the
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 3: one forties, you know, maybe the lean would be the
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 3: Mets there, but I don't know. First five under I
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 3: could see making some sense, and you're probably getting it
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 3: at like under five and a half, but you're having
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 3: to worry about it being Coors Field as well, and
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 3: there is the potential that one or both of these
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 3: pitchers don't actually do well. So I don't love it.
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 3: The White Sox are at Anaheim. Anaheim lost six to
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 3: nothing yesterday to the White Sox. So I talk about
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 3: when teams get shut out at home, a lot of
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 3: times they bounce back and they do better in the
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 3: next game. Soriano didn't do well again yesterday. Mam. You know,
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 3: he's become human, which I kind of expected, but he
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 3: said a couple of not so good starts in a row.
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 3: This White Sox team is not that bad anymore. Man
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 3: their bullpen is still bad though they only use one
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 3: relief pitcher out of the bullpen yesterday. But Anaheim's bullpen
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 3: is also bad. They use two guys out of the
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 3: bullpen yesterday. White Sox are twenty sixth, Anaheim twenty seventh,
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 3: and bullpen Whip. These are both bullpens that you can't
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 3: rely on. White Sox offenses all the way up to
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 3: twelfth in ops now though pretty crazy with Calming doing
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 3: really well, et cetera. The Angels offense has fallen off
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 3: of it. I think they're down to sixteenth, even though
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 3: the two hit a lot of home runs, so these
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 3: offenses are still kind of capable. YouTube is shadowed, Manning me,
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 3: I don't think so. I don't. I don't do anything
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 3: on this channel here that would get that to happen.
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 3: That makes no sense to me. I think YouTube, just
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 3: their notification sister just sucks. I don't know what else
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 3: to tell you. If I search for my show, it
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 3: comes up right away, So I don't think so. Uh,
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 3: they're not Twitter, and also I don't make this show political,
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 3: at least not really. What was I gonna say, uh oh,
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 3: all right, yeah, the White Sox. Eric Fetti is pitching
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 3: for the White Sox here. He's actually been al right
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 3: this year, and he was the guy that I was
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 3: really wanting to fade last year when he was on
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 3: Saint Louis three point two four era a one point
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 3: zero five whip. It see like being back with the
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 3: White Sox has given him a new lease on life.
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 3: I guess I don't know, man, he's been part of
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 3: this White Sox resurgence. Hasn't been as good on the
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 3: road though. Four point three Roady ra generally good. Though
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 3: he's allowed three or fewer earned runs in every outing.
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 3: Twenty two to eleven strike out walk ratio is not great.
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 3: He's not striking out a lot of guys twenty four
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 3: hits allowed in thirty three and a third innings, But
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 3: I mean he's getting the job done. Numbers against Anaheim
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 3: are not horrible, and sixty one at bats twelve one
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 3: strike out walk ratio, two thirty average allowed, seven to
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 3: seventeen ops. Those are not bad numbers. He will be
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 3: going up against Sam Alde Gary. Is that how you
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 3: pronounce his name? Alde Gary? The Italian He's from Italy. Actually,
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 3: Alde Gary five point four ERA one point eight whip
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 3: for him. He's still really young twenty four, so maybe
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 3: he starts turning this thing around. But he's pitched a
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 3: little bit in the Major C twenty twenty four and
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 3: his overall numbers have been bad, like pretty much in
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 3: line with what he's done so far this season. So
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 3: I worry about that he's only made one start or
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 3: not even a start, one appearance this year. I don't
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 3: even think it was a start. He got a win
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 3: in the game. Actually out of the it wasn't a
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 3: start because he got a win despite only bitching one
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 3: and two thirds innings. He got a win against the
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 3: Yankees a couple of weeks ago, coming out of the
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 3: bullpen and allowed one to and run and off of
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 3: two hits in one walk. It had two strikeouts, so
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 3: he wasn't even that good, but he got the job
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 3: done somehow. I don't trust him, but he is unfamiliar
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 3: to the White Sox. Only Green Shock has seen him,
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 3: and he's over too with a strikeout, So I don't know. Man. Yeah,
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 3: Alder Gary, I mean he's very unpredictable in this game.
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 3: What do we do with this game. I I have
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 3: no clue. I mean, normally I would say that Anaheim
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 3: should bounce back here. Money looks like it's coming in
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 3: on the White Sox, though, you know teams usually bounce
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 3: back after they get shut out at home, but maybe
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 3: not here. Sixty two percent of ticket, seventy three percent
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 3: of the cash on the White Sox. Anaheims are around
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 3: minus one fifteen here. I really don't like the game, man,
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 3: I just don't have a good angle to attack this game. Uh,
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 3: there is just too it's too highly variant, Like we
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 3: don't know what we're gonna get out of either of
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 3: these starters. The only thing that isn't that variant is
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 3: that both bullpens sucks. So keep that in mind with
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 3: whatever you do there. What is happening with these notifications? Man?
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 3: This is bullshit. I need more people to watch my
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 3: fucking show. And the notifications? Are you sure that you're
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 3: like when you subscribe? I think you have to click
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 3: something extra to actually get the notifications. You have to
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 3: make sure the notifications are actually turned on. Make sure
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 3: that you've done that, because YouTube focks that up a lot.
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 3: Atlanta at Seattle, I was correct about Seattle. Yes today
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 3: you know. I mean, I like being correct about my leans,
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 3: but I don't like it when I don't have a
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 3: play on it. But it was a close game, five
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 3: to four. I do think Seattle's still a bit under
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 3: the radar, though not as bad as the record looks. Atlanta,
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 3: of course, is just gonna get the public attention because
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 3: the record is so good. Atlanta used three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 3: Seattle also used three. Bullpen Wise, Atlanta has been the
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 3: best in baseball based on whip, not based on era,
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 3: but they are one of the best bullpens. Seattle's good
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 3: as well, though even though they're fifteenth, their whip hasn't
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 3: been that good, but their bullpen era is good. I
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 3: think Seattle's bullpen can compete with Atlanta's at the very least.
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 3: Atlanta's been the best offense in baseball as well, which
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 3: is crazy. Seattle has struggled in that department at twenty seconds,
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I'll give it Lanta on an offensive edge,
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 3: but I don't think it's as crazy in edge is
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 3: what it might look like. Bryce Elder is pitching for
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 3: the Braves one point eight to eight ERA one point
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 3: oh five. I've whip, so his numbers are good. Bryce Elder, Dude,
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 3: he's starting to turn it around, surprisingly because he was
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 3: really bad for a lot of last year. He looks
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 3: like he's bouncing back or something from injury. Now. Man,
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 3: he's been good. His home road splits are basically non existent,
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 3: so he's good either way. Thirty six strikeouts, thirteen walks
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 3: in forty three innings, thirty two hits allowed. These are
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 3: all pretty good numbers, although his strikeout rate is not
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 3: that high. But you got the notification yesterday. Maybe today
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 3: might have just it might've just been a bug. I
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 3: don't know, man, I don't think I'm I'm pretty sure
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 3: I'm not shadow Man on YouTube. Like nobody even knows
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 3: about this channel. Really, nobody cares. Yeah, I highly doubt it.
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 3: YouTube also doesn't do that. That's that's like a Twitter thing.
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 3: YouTube they just give you like strikes and warnings and stuff.
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 3: None of that has happened on this channel, So no
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 3: YouTube is way different. Twitter will just do that to
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 3: you without even telling you. YouTube doesn't do that, you know,
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 3: as much as I do not like either of them anyway,
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 3: I don't know if I'm allowed to say that here anyway. Yeah,
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 3: I don't even know what I was saying. Elders allowed
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 3: three or fewer earned runs and every out and whatever.
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 3: His numbers are pretty good. Numbers against Seattle are not
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 3: that good and eighteen at bats small sample size though
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 3: three strikeouts, two walks, two seventy eight average, seven to
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 3: thirty nine ops. Those numbers are not good and they're
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 3: not bad really, so we don't know what we're gonna
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 3: get out of elder Hero, though this is a pitcher
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 3: friendly park, he might pitch well. He's had a good season.
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 3: George Kirby is pitching for the Mariners. He's had a
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 3: good season as well, three ERA at one point one
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 3: to three whip. He's generally better at home, although his
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 3: home road splits are actually pretty insignificant this year. He's
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 3: allowed two or fewer earn runs in his last four outings.
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 3: He's allowed more than three only once this season and
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 3: a start against the Yankees. He's got a thirty four
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 3: to eleven strikeout walk ratio, which is pretty good. Forty
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 3: hits a lout of forty five innings. We got good
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 3: numbers here from him. His numbers against Atlanta are pretty
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 3: good in fifty eight at bats, eleven strikeouts, two walks.
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 3: Two seventy six average is a little high, you know,
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 3: in the current baseball but six seventy nine ohps is
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 3: not bad. So the only way I can really look
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 3: at this game is an under. I mean, I think
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 3: that's pretty much what I would do here. The money
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 3: looks like it's not really agreeing with it. Ninety three
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 3: percent of tickets, eighty nine percent of the cash on
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 3: the under, the totals at eight. But I mean, we
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 3: got a pitcher friendly park, we got two pretty good bullpens.
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 3: Bullpen usage was somewhat limited, although Seattle did use some
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 3: of their better relievers yesterday. But even so, I think
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 3: both starters are fairly trustworthy. Right now, it looks like
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 3: an under to me. You also had Atlanta was initially
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 3: a favorite, and it flipped to Seattle being about a
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 3: minus one thirty favorite. Here, I don't really disagree with
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 3: the Seattle side, similar to why I like them last night.
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 3: I just think that they're under the radar right now.
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 3: Public looks all over Atlanta ninety percent of the tickets
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 3: of the ninety two percent of the cash on them,
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 3: But I think Seattle is a fade of the public
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 3: at the very least here, and I think Elder is
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 3: a little bit less trustworthy than Kirby still, and the
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 3: matchup numbers kind of bear that out too, So slight
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 3: lying for me to Seattle as well. There. I liked
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 3: it better last night though, Pittsburgh at Arizona Arizona. I
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 3: think these teams both didn't play yesterday, but Arizona is
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 3: returning on from a road trip. They went to Milwaukee
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 3: and the Cubs, and they lost all but one game
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 3: on the road trip, got swept by the Cubs. So
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 3: I think the gut instinct from a lot of like
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 3: recreational betters and whatever, will be, Oh, they're at home,
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 3: they're gonna bounce back. But I look at it differently,
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 3: as you know, I think the return home spot is
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 3: bad because you've been away for a week or more,
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 3: you got to get back to family life. It could
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 3: be a bit of a distract action. Even though the
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 3: Pirates might be a team that you actually pay attention
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 3: to because they've had a decent season so far. Pirates
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 3: had yesterday off as well, and maybe that's a little
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 3: bit of a momentum stop or after sweeping the Reds
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 3: in a very nice home series for the pirates there,
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 3: but starting the road trip, you usually our focus because
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 3: you want to get the road trip off on the
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 3: right foot. So I think it is a decent situational
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 3: spot for Pittsburgh here. So I don't mind that both
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 3: bullpen's arrested because they didn't play yesterday. But you know,
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 3: I don't like Arizona's bullpen, even though there's still seventh
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 3: in whip, their era is close to five, so I
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 3: don't really see how you can trust their bullpen. Pittsburgh's
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 3: bullpen has a three point seventyr, although their whip is
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 3: a little bit worse. I think Pittsburgh does have the
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 3: better bullpen. Hidden wise, Pittsburgh's been surprisingly good. They're up
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 3: to seventh in ops. D Backs have dropped to eleventh.
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 3: Although both these teams are pretty offensively capable, I will
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 3: say I think Pittsburgh might be a little bit fraudulent
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 3: offensively right now, but they've meant pretty good. A Bubba
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 3: Chandler is pitching for Pittsburgh, and I look at the
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 3: starting pitching matchup, and I think Chandler is the better
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 3: pitcher in this matchup. He's the younger pitcher with way
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 3: more upside because he's only twenty three, But I don't
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 3: know if he's that trustworthy right now. He's really struggled
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 3: with the wildness this year. Four point nine to seventy ra,
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 3: one point four to eight whip. That's not that good
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 3: five point nine to three erra on the road, So
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 3: he's difficult to trust on the road. He's pitching in
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 3: a hitter friendly park here. He's had way too many walks, dude,
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 3: twenty seven strikeouts, twenty walks. I can't really get on
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 3: board with that. Twenty three hits allowed in twenty nine innings.
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 3: That's not bad, obviously, but the walk number is what's bad.
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 3: He's had multiple walks in all but one outing. It
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 3: should worry you. You know, Pittsburgh's lost four of his
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 3: last five outings. All you know, it's not not all
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 3: of it was his fault, though he allowed three or
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 3: fewer earned runs and all of those outings, so he's
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 3: not allowing that many runs for the most part. And
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 3: Arizona's never faced it before, so I do talk about
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 3: how that is an advantage to the pitcher and when
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 3: the offense has never seen them before, they have to
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 3: kind of figure him out. So maybe he does have
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 3: a little bit of an edge there. He's going up
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 3: against Eduardo Rodriguez, so both e Rods are pitching today,
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 3: Elmer and Eduardo for the Yankees and for the Diamondbacks.
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 3: Eduardo Rodriguez is a bit older. He's got a three
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 3: point zero three ERA this year, which does look pretty good,
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 3: but one point four to one whip is not very good.
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 3: Home road splits are almost non existent for him, so
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 3: he's the same home and away pretty much. But that
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 3: whip indicates he is putting way too many guys on base,
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 3: and in fact that is the case. He's walked multiple
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 3: guys in all but one outing. He's walked at least
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 3: three in his last three outings. Diamondbacks have actually won
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 3: his last four starts, though, and he's allowed no more
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 3: than four earned runs in any of them. But this
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 3: walk number is very untrustworthy. So both pitchers have walk problems.
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 3: Twenty two strikeouts, sixteen walks, so his strikeout rate is
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 3: down to his velocity. He is way down, dude. He
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 3: hasn't been the same since his like surgeries either. He's
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 3: allowed thirty hits in thirty two and two thirds inages,
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 3: which isn't that bad, but the walk up strikeout walk
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 3: ratio is not very good for him. His numbers against
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 3: uh not Arizona against Pittsburgh. Actually, I gotta go back
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 3: and make sure I looked at Chandler's like, oh I did.
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 3: I looked at Chandler's numbers. He's never been seen before
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 3: by Arizona, which I think is correct. E Rod obviously
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 3: has been seen by Pittsburgh before. They have thirty eight
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 3: at bats against him, fifteen strikeouts, two walks to eleven average,
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 3: seven to fifty ops is a little high because he's
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 3: allowed three home runs, but all of them are from
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 3: Brandon Low, and Low is four for twenty off him
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 3: with eleven strikeouts, So it's like he either strikes out
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 3: or homer's off him and doesn't do anything else. That
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 3: doesn't concern me that much. So I think Erod does
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 3: have good matchup numbers. There. You know, it's not a
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 3: game I want anything to do with. The money looks
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 3: like it is. Money is hitting Texas now, by the way,
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 3: So there we go. That is my one play. If
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 3: you trust these wager talk numbers at all, This game
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 3: looks like the money is hitting Pittsburgh, and I do agree.
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 3: Sixty two percent of tickets around Arizona fifty eight percent
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 3: of the cash on Pittsburgh. I do think I trust
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 3: Chandler a little bit more. Maybe he at least has
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 3: the capability of pitching really well. He's the much younger
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 3: guy with the much higher threshold. Like I said, the
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 3: higher ceiling total in this game is nine, and Arizona
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 3: is about a minus one twenty something favorite here. But again,
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 3: the situation does not benefit Arizona returning on from a
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 3: road trip Pittsburgh starting a road trip. So I'll lean
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 3: to Pittsburgh in the game. Don't have a good feel
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 3: for the total there. Pittsburgh also does have the better
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 3: bullpen in my opinion too, so you get that behind you.
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 3: If you want Pittsburgh there, that would be my lean.
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 3: And then San Diego at San Francisco. San Francisco won
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 3: yesterday three to two. You know, these two teams when
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 3: they play, they both playing pitcher friendly ballparks, they both
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 3: have good bullpens, so usually you're gonna see lower scoring
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 3: games between these two teams. I look at this starting
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 3: pitching matchup though, and I think this is a huge
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 3: starting pitching edge to San Francisco. But when you dig
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 3: into the matchup numbers, that's not quite the case. San
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 3: Francisco used two relief pitchers yesterday. San Diego used three,
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 3: but some of their better relievers are available again today.
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 3: Both bullpens are good, San Diego's eighth right now and
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 3: Whip Giants are tenth. But I think these are two
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 3: like top several bullpens in baseball. Both offenses have really
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 3: struggled as well, so that also leads to lower scoring games.
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 3: San Diego twenty sixth and San Francisco twenty ninth in ops,
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 3: that's some pretty bad stuff. Walker Buehler is pitching for
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 3: San Diego, and that's why I was saying, I can't
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 3: say that San Diego has a pitching edge here because
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 3: you know, I don't think Bueller's any good. He hasn't
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 3: been good really at all since his injuries. He's never
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 3: come back from that five point four ERA this year
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 3: one point five to six Whip not very good. His
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 3: roadyra is very bad thirteen point five, but it's a
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 3: very small sample, and he is pitching in a pitcher
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 3: friendly park here. He faced San Francisco in the first
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 3: game of the season that he pitched, and he didn't
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 3: do that well. In San Diego he went four innings,
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 3: allowed three or runs, three strikeouts, two walks. Overall, he
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 3: has twenty four strikeouts and twenty five innings, which is
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 3: actually not that bad. That strike got rate is decent,
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 3: but twelve walks is a concern. Twenty seven hits a
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 3: lot is kind of a concern, just too many guys
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 3: on base man. Although some of his numbers might suggest
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 3: that he's not quite that bad. His matchup numbers are
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 3: actually good against the Giants though, and forty five at bats,
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 3: thirteen to two strike out walk ratio, one seventy eight
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 3: average allowed four to thirty five ops. So overall, he
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 3: does match up well against the Giants. But some of
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 3: those numbers might be from earlier in his career because
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 3: he was in this division with the Dodgers. So maybe
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 3: you don't want to put that much weight into those numbers,
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 3: but I think you should put some weight into them.
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 3: Logan Webb is pitching for the Giants. Generally he is
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 3: pretty good. All those numbers this year haven't been quite
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 3: that good. Four point three ERA and one point three
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 3: to six whip. Those numbers are a little bit higher
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 3: than you want to see it. He's actually been a
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 3: little bit worse at home this year so far, which
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 3: tends to not be the case. I think he'll probably
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 3: turn that around. Like last year he was definitely better
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 3: at home, but this year he has a four point
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 3: seven to four homey RA. He hasn't pitched bad, though,
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 3: I mean he's allowed three or fewer run or four
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 3: or fewer in runs in every outing since his first outing,
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 3: which was against the Yankees, and he still had a
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 3: good strike out walk ratio in that one. He's allowed
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 3: three or fewer earned runs in all but two outings.
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 3: Of course, he gets no run support because his team
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 3: can't hit, so his team has lost three out of
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 3: his last four starts. But generally he's pitching decently. He's
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 3: got thirty eight strike cuts and forty four innings forty
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 3: five hits a lot in fifteen walks. Yeah, those numbers
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 3: are a little bit concerning. I mean, he's not a
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 3: huge strikeout guy, but usually he doesn't put that many
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 3: guys on base, so he's got to get that under
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 3: control a little bit. Numbers Againt Sandy a Go, believe
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 3: it or not, are actually not that good, though they
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 3: have a lot of experience against them. Two hundred and
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 3: thirty at bats, fifty one strikeouts, thirteen walks. That's not
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 3: bad for him, but two eighty seven batting average allowed
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 3: seven to fifty six ops, so they do have a
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 3: lot of hits off of them. Not a lot of
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 3: home runs, though, but just generally a lot of hits.
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 3: Five home runs is not that much for that amount
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 3: of at bats. But maybe Webb is a little bit
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 3: less trustworthy than you would think, because I was looking
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 3: at this game and thinking San Francisco has got a
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 3: big pitching edge year, but maybe not so much money
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 3: is kind of indicating we're always looking here, Oh National League,
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 3: Oh thank you. Money is still indicating on San Francisco though,
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 3: sixty percent of tickets, ninety percent of the cash on them.
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 3: Thro it about minus one thirty or so, I'll probably
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 3: I don't know, man. I mean, I still kind of
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 3: want to lean that way towards San Francisco, just because
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 3: I think Web is clearly better than Bueller. But I
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 3: don't know about it, man. The total is really low
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 3: at seven and a half, the under might make sense. Again,
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 3: you have two good bullpends. Both starting pitchers might actually
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 3: be capable of doing okay here offenses are not very
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 3: good pitcher friendly park. I mean, it under kind of
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 3: makes sense in that game, but you know, if the
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 3: matchup numbers were stronger, maybe that's the way I would
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 3: go with that, But I'm skipping it. Let's go to
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 3: hockey where there's one game and I have one play.
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 3: It's on ESPN. It's Minnesota Colorado Game two. Colorado won
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 3: the first game in a ridiculous nine to six score.
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 3: So what am I gonna do here. I'm gonna do
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 3: something that you might not expect from me. We're gonna
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 3: take the under in this game. The totals at six
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 3: and a half, and it was six and a half
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 3: in Game one as well, but it was more heavily
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 3: juiced towards the under in Game one, so it was
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 3: more close to six. So based on that ridiculous fifteen
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 3: goal barrage in game one, the line is shifted a
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 3: little bit such that you're getting six and a half
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 3: at basically a Pickham price here, and we're talking about
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 3: two teams that were two of the top defensive teams
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 3: in the NHL this year. Yeah, I mean, I think
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 3: this is gonna be a lower scoring game, man, I mean,
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 3: this is getting a little bit ridiculous. I mean, yes,
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 3: there were a lot of shots in that game, but
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 3: still fifteen goals is just insane. Like, I think it's
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 3: almost automatic that in an outlier like that, you just
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 3: look to fade that result in the next game, even
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 3: though yes, both teams did put up a lot of shots,
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 3: but still, I mean, it wasn't like, I don't know,
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 3: it wasn't that many. It wasn't like the game you know,
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 3: went into overtime and we had you know, well it
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 3: went into overtime. That might you know, skew the perception
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 3: a little bit more. But either way, I mean, we
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 3: had thirty six shots from Minnesota forty three from Colorado.
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 3: It is a high number for sure, but not as
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 3: high as you would think in a game that was
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 3: that high scoring. I think the defenses are gonna show up, man.
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 3: I think what's gonna happen is both teams are going
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 3: to focus on that after both teams know they allowed
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 3: way too many goals in the first game. I think
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 3: you're not gonna see this game be as wide open
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 3: at all. And Colorado, by the way, in the playoffs
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 3: prior to that, Colorado had had every single game went
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 3: under this total. They had totals of three to threes,
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 3: six and six, and the two games at home were
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 3: both the three totals, so that was what they did
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 3: in the playoffs so far. So this looks like a
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 3: big time outlier in Minnesota. Yes, they did play a
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 3: little bit higher scoring against Dallas. They had. They played
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 3: six games against Dallas and three of them went over
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 3: this total and three of them didn't. But all three
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 3: of that went over landed exactly seven, so they were
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 3: not They were not having ridiculously high scoring games either
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 3: in that series. So I like the under in this one.
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 3: I know we have to worry about empty net goals
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 3: and shit like that, but this is a very rare
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 3: situation for me, man where we had such an outlier
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 3: in the previous game that the zigzag is to go
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 3: under here. So that's what we're doing. Let's see about
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 3: the money here. Money seems to indicate that way sixty
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 3: nine percent of tickets, ninety four percent of the cash
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 3: on the under. That is what we're gonna do. You
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 3: could probably still find it at this price or maybe
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 3: minus one fifteen, whatever it is. Colorado is also a
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 3: huge favorite, and in the minus one nineties. Basically, I
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 3: don't have a good read on the on the side.
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 3: You know, Colorado won by three goals, so normally I
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 3: would say the zigzag would say to look the other way.
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 3: But Minnesota was in that game. So I think the
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 3: way that Minnesota lost that game in such a crazy
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 3: game that was actually pretty close, with Minnesota continuously coming
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 3: back in the game from big deficits and whatever, or
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 3: at least one big deficit early, I don't love Minnesota here.
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 3: And yes, maybe it means the teams are both gassed,
• 1:32:53
  Speaker 3: which you know, that might worry me a little bit
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 3: about playing the unders that the teams are tired, but
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 3: I just think it's such an outlier that you have
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 3: to do it, so we are going to go under here.
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 3: Don't have a good read on the side here. Colorado
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 3: is getting the money. It looks like eighty five percent
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 3: of tickets ninety five percent of the cash on them,
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 3: And I did already talk about you know, if you
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 3: look at the regular season series, Colorado played better than
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 3: it looks in the regular season, So I think this
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 3: is a bad matchup for Minnesota. I do think Colorado
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 3: will win the series eventually, and they should win this
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 3: game being a big favorite at home. But we will
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 3: say NBA two plays that are on are two games.
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 3: Excuse I don't have any plays in the NBA. NBC
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 3: Sports and NBC and Peacock have the games here. First
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 3: game is Cleveland at Detroit, and this is the game
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 3: where I have a stronger opinion here Detroit. Now, both teams,
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 3: it's similar that both teams went to seven games when
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 3: people didn't expect that to happen, So both teams almost
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 3: lost their first series, had to go seven games. And
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 3: initially I was going to say, well, Detroit looked like
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 3: the less impressive team in those series because they fell
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 3: behind three to one to Orlando, who can't even score,
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 3: you know what I mean in Detroit, all those ugly
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 3: lower scoring games. But the public is very recently biased,
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 3: and I think the public's gonna look at this and say, well,
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 3: Detroit just blew Orlando out two games in a row,
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 3: beat them three games in a row. They had a
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 3: higher scoring game in the last game, So I think
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 3: in the public's mind that's actually gonna make them like
• 1:34:22
  Speaker 3: Detroit more now coming off of that. Whereas for Cleveland,
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 3: they went to seven games and they zigzag all over
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 3: the place, and I think the public is gonna knock
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 3: them a little bit more because they were losing the
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 3: game in the first half to Toronto. We got the
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 3: win on that game, but remember even though Cleveland only
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 3: won by twelve, Cleveland they were winning that game by
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 3: twenty one late in the game, so they kind of
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 3: just packed it in early after they completely took control
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 3: of that game. So we did have a winner with
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 3: Cleveland in that one, But now after that, I think
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 3: the public's perception of this is gonna be the Cleveland
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 3: actually didn't play that well in the series. But Toronto,
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 3: I mean, they're pretty good defensive team and they put
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 3: up way more of a fight than I thought they would.
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 3: But then again, Cleveland was really the better team here.
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 3: And the way that you know is that Cleveland dominated
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 3: the rebound battle in this game sixty to thirty three.
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 3: I mean, that's probably gonna be a concern for Detroit too,
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 3: because Detroit, and I know they have Duran and whatever,
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 3: but I don't know if Detroit has enough answers for Cleveland.
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 3: You know, I picked Cleveland to win this series in
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 3: my bracket. Part of it was because I thought Cleveland
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 3: had an easier first round matchup two. But I thought
• 1:35:32
  Speaker 3: Cleveland might actually wind up even being a slight favorite
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 3: in this series. And I think they're a slight underdog
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 3: in the series, but it's close. I think Cleveland's gonna
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 3: be a bigger favorite in their home games than Detroit
• 1:35:43
  Speaker 3: is in their home games in the series, but Cleveland
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 3: dominated the rebound Battleman, I don't think Detroit has enough
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 3: size to match what Cleveland's gonna do. Cleveland has more
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 3: experience as well. Cleveland, you know, they've made playoff runs
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 3: last few years. Detroit this is only their second year
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 3: this This is the first time they made it to
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 3: the second round. So I don't love that. Cleveland, by
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 3: the way, didn't shoot well from three point range in
• 1:36:07
  Speaker 3: that game against Toronto, so they do have possibly a
• 1:36:10
  Speaker 3: little bit of positive regression in store there from not
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 3: shooting well from three, whereas Detroit, by the way, they
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 3: shot too well against Orlando. Here they shot fifty one
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 3: percent from the field and forty eight percent from three,
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 3: so they're probably gonna see some outlier there. Even though yes,
• 1:36:26
  Speaker 3: Orlando did go to the line more than Detroit did,
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 3: they were only plus four in free throw makes so
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 3: Detroit you know, maybe we'll regress a little bit from
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 3: shooting eighty two percent from the line as well. But
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 3: Detroit only won the rebound battle by eight, so they
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 3: were not really as impressive as maybe it looked in
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 3: this easy win against Orlando. But they shot a lot
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 3: better than you would expect, especially given what that series
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 3: looked like. That series did not have good shooting in it.
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 3: And while I think detroit might be the better defense
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 3: over Cleveland here, Detroit's laying points here. You know, I
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 3: might be talking myself into it obviously, if you haven't
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 3: figured it out. I like Cleveland in this game, and
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 3: I like Cleveland to win the series as well, because
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 3: I picked it in my bracket. But I still like it.
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 3: Fifty eight percent of tickets, eighty nine percent of the
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 3: cash coming in on Cleveland. You could have gotten four
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 3: on this, but it did drop to three and a
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 3: half three. Let me see, I don't know if there's
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 3: still three and a half's out there. I'm I am
• 1:37:22
  Speaker 3: tempted to actually add this. Let me see. Yeah, it
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 3: looks like you basically have to take three. I see
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 3: three and a half at plus one point fifteen out
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 3: there as well. You know, Caesar's has a decent number
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 3: on it at or I don't know if I should
• 1:37:47
  Speaker 3: say the Roman Emperor. Maybe that's why they're shadow many
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 3: may not. I think they are. The Roman Emperor's place
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 3: has a has the three at reduced juice. You know what,
• 1:37:58
  Speaker 3: let's add it. Let's do it. Let's try to get
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 3: back on track with the with the basketball playoffs. Here,
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 3: we're gonna do it. We're gonna take Cleveland. It looks
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 3: like the money is agreeing with this, and then it's
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 3: dropped a little bit. But I would say try to
• 1:38:13
  Speaker 3: at least get three on this with Cleveland. There it
• 1:38:17
  Speaker 3: is for you, Cleveland plus three. Let's do it again,
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 3: more experienced. I think the outliers in the last game
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 3: for both teams kind of indicate towards Cleveland as well.
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 3: Whips I made that ten seconds. I don't know how
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 3: that even happened. Whatever, Cleveland is gonna be the play there.
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 3: So there you go. And Cleveland, by the way, I mean, yeah,
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 3: they have to travel here, but they have to travel
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 3: from Cleveland to Detroit.
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 1: Oh No.
• 1:38:45
  Speaker 3: And both teams played on the same day, so both
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 3: teams have the same rest. But Cleveland has to travel
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 3: from Cleveland to Detroit. Oh my god, that's such a
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 3: big travel spot. Not really, by the way, I guess
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 3: because I always do. We look at the season series,
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 3: and you know, these teams actually did split the season series,
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 3: with Cleveland winning at Detroit by twenty one. Then Detroit
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 3: won at Cleveland by four, Detroit won in overtime at
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 3: home by three, and then at Cleveland Cleveland won by
• 1:39:15
  Speaker 3: four in the most recent game. You'd have to look
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 3: at what personnel was in because I don't know how
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 3: much weight you can put into these games because some
• 1:39:22
  Speaker 3: of these games, you know, some of the guys were out.
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 3: I think Conningham might have missed that last game. I
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 3: don't even know. Man, both teams had guys that were
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 3: in and out of the lineup. So I don't really
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 3: know how much you can how much weight you can
• 1:39:32
  Speaker 3: put it to these games. But one thing to note
• 1:39:35
  Speaker 3: is that in the two games in Detroit, Detroit lost
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 3: one game by twenty one and they only won the
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 3: other game by three in overtime. So Detroit basically didn't
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 3: cover this number in either home game against Cleveland. Yeah,
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 3: Detroit is good at home thirty one and nine, Cleveland
• 1:39:52
  Speaker 3: not horrible on the road at twenty five and sixteen, though,
• 1:39:54
  Speaker 3: and we don't need them to win, we need them
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 3: to cover. So we're gonna take Cleveland and that one.
• 1:40:00
  Speaker 3: Then in the other matchup. Oh, by the way, very
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 3: very surprising, I did say I leaned to Minnesota plus
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 3: the points against San Antonio last night. I was correct
• 1:40:09
  Speaker 3: about the Knicks as well, So my leans were correct
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 3: in both games, even though I wasn't that strong on
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 3: either of them. Minnesota, in a shocking turn of events,
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 3: they actually played Anthony Edwards last night and want up
• 1:40:23
  Speaker 3: winning the game. The line dropped to about eight and
• 1:40:25
  Speaker 3: a half, I think in the game because of that announcement.
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 3: So I would have said laying the points with San
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 3: Antonio made more sense after that, right, because the number
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 3: had dropped to eight and a half and San Antonio
• 1:40:36
  Speaker 3: is a way better home team than Minnesota is a
• 1:40:38
  Speaker 3: road team. But san Antonio, I think the time off
• 1:40:41
  Speaker 3: hurt them, man. I think having that much time off,
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 3: plus the lack of experience for san Antonio that hurt them.
• 1:40:47
  Speaker 3: And if Anthony Edwards is gonna keep playing, he came
• 1:40:50
  Speaker 3: off the bench, by the way, so that was the
• 1:40:52
  Speaker 3: other thing the line would have overreacted a little bit
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 3: to Edwards coming back because he didn't even start, but
• 1:40:58
  Speaker 3: he played twenty five minutes. Actually was pretty good in
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 3: the game, even though it looked like he was kind
• 1:41:02
  Speaker 3: of injured. But Minnesota stealing that game and having experienced
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 3: they might actually win that series. You know, it went
• 1:41:10
  Speaker 3: from San Antonio being a massive favorite with it looking
• 1:41:13
  Speaker 3: like Anthony Edwards might not even play in the series
• 1:41:15
  Speaker 3: at all, to now Edwards all of a sudden comes
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 3: back in game one and now Minnesota has stolen one
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 3: of the games on the road. It's crazy, dude, It
• 1:41:23
  Speaker 3: is really crazy. Of Course, I had Denver winning that
• 1:41:27
  Speaker 3: series in my bracket, so but anyway, I figured I
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 3: would point that out. The other game tonight, of course,
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 3: is the Lakers at Oklahoma City. Luca is not coming
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 3: back here, so we will have La with Reeves, but
• 1:41:38
  Speaker 3: I don't know that that's gonna be enough to beat
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 3: Oklahoma City. Oklahoma City is without Jalen Williams still, who
• 1:41:44
  Speaker 3: is one of their better players, but there's such a
• 1:41:46
  Speaker 3: deep team it hasn't even really mattered that much, and
• 1:41:49
  Speaker 3: he might not have played in some of the regular
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 3: season games. Oklahoma City swept the regular season series against
• 1:41:55
  Speaker 3: the Lakers, and they won those games by twenty nine
• 1:41:58
  Speaker 3: at home, by not on the road, by forty three
• 1:42:03
  Speaker 3: at home, and by thirty six on the road. But
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 3: that was a game where the Lakers were without everybody
• 1:42:10
  Speaker 3: that was no Luca, no Reeves, whatever, But they're still
• 1:42:13
  Speaker 3: without Luca here. Oklahoma City completely dominated the Lakers and
• 1:42:17
  Speaker 3: the regular season series, man, so they're clearly the better
• 1:42:20
  Speaker 3: team is obviously a reason why they're a massive favorite here. Now.
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 3: The problem with OKC obviously is they've been off for
• 1:42:27
  Speaker 3: a long time. They haven't played since last Monday, they
• 1:42:30
  Speaker 3: swept Phoenix. So I think if you want to look
• 1:42:33
  Speaker 3: towards the Lakers here, I think going first half makes
• 1:42:37
  Speaker 3: sense here. But the oddsmakers probably know about this phenomenon,
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 3: so you're probably not getting that much value on playing
• 1:42:42
  Speaker 3: the Lakers. You're probably only getting about seven playing them
• 1:42:45
  Speaker 3: in the first half. But that's probably what I would do,
• 1:42:48
  Speaker 3: because if Oklahoma City is going to come into this
• 1:42:51
  Speaker 3: game with any rust or whatever from having way too
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 3: much time off, I think it's gonna show early in
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 3: the game, and then once the game goes on, I
• 1:42:59
  Speaker 3: think they're probably gonna overpower the Lakers and wind up
• 1:43:02
  Speaker 3: winning the game, possibly covering You know, I don't want
• 1:43:07
  Speaker 3: anything to do with the game, but you know, first
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 3: half Lakers makes some sense just because the Lakers have
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 3: more momentum because they played more recently. But the Lakers
• 1:43:15
  Speaker 3: beating a durantless Houston team that just looked like they
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 3: really did not have a lot of motivation there, I
• 1:43:20
  Speaker 3: don't know what that was. I'm not liking the Lakers'
• 1:43:24
  Speaker 3: chances in this series, obviously. I think Oklahoma City should
• 1:43:27
  Speaker 3: win the series pretty easily. The money seems to be
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 3: coming in on Oklahoma City here, sixty six percent of tickets,
• 1:43:34
  Speaker 3: ninety two percent of the cash on them. They're at
• 1:43:36
  Speaker 3: fifteen and a half at most places. Year money coming
• 1:43:40
  Speaker 3: in on the under, by the way, as well, with
• 1:43:42
  Speaker 3: the total being around two fourteen somewhere in that range.
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 3: I don't really have a good read on the total.
• 1:43:47
  Speaker 3: But again, I will say, if Oklahoma City comes into
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 3: this game rusty and with the Lakers without their best
• 1:43:52
  Speaker 3: offensive player, Luca, maybe under makes some sense in that game,
• 1:43:57
  Speaker 3: and maybe Lakers getting those points made some sense in
• 1:44:00
  Speaker 3: the full game, but I wouldn't want to do it.
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 3: First half to me makes a little bit more sense,
• 1:44:05
  Speaker 3: but I don't want to do that either. And by
• 1:44:07
  Speaker 3: the way, just you know, to cover it. The total
• 1:44:10
  Speaker 3: in the Cleveland Detroit game is at two sixteen approximately,
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 3: which is really low by the way, so like based
• 1:44:17
  Speaker 3: on what these totals were in the regular season, Like
• 1:44:19
  Speaker 3: if you look at the regular season matchups, these totals
• 1:44:22
  Speaker 3: are way lower than what they were doing the r
• 1:44:24
  Speaker 3: I think during the regular season Cleveland and Detroit had
• 1:44:26
  Speaker 3: some totals that were like around two thirty. So the
• 1:44:29
  Speaker 3: odds makers know what they're doing. Man, playoff atmosphere, you
• 1:44:32
  Speaker 3: get better defense. That's the way that it is, and
• 1:44:35
  Speaker 3: that does help us as far as wanting Cleveland in
• 1:44:38
  Speaker 3: the game. But yeah, I don't really have much of
• 1:44:43
  Speaker 3: a thought on the total there. The money is coming
• 1:44:44
  Speaker 3: in on the under in both games though for what
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 3: that's worth, it looks like that's the case, even though
• 1:44:50
  Speaker 3: I just don't know if there's a whole lot of
• 1:44:51
  Speaker 3: value there though. That's the problem. Both game sevens went
• 1:44:54
  Speaker 3: over by the way, all three I should say, the
• 1:44:59
  Speaker 3: three uh game seven's in the in the Eastern Conference.
• 1:45:02
  Speaker 3: They all went over the total because the odds makers
• 1:45:05
  Speaker 3: over adjusted because they know that Game seven is always
• 1:45:07
  Speaker 3: low scoring defensive, but they adjusted those totals so low
• 1:45:11
  Speaker 3: that I told you couldn't play those unders, you know
• 1:45:13
  Speaker 3: what I mean? And all three of them went over,
• 1:45:16
  Speaker 3: so I believe. But anyway, that's my coverage. There you go.
• 1:45:20
  Speaker 3: The plays today are the Texas Rangers on the on
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 3: the money line, excuse me, under in Minnesota, Colorado in hockey,
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 3: and we threw in an NBA play Cleveland Calves plus three.
• 1:45:31
  Speaker 3: That's gonna be it. You know. I don't feel like
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 3: I need to have one play in every sport. I mean,
• 1:45:37
  Speaker 3: you know, I do skip sports pretty often. I was
• 1:45:40
  Speaker 3: going to skip the NBA, but I don't know. I
• 1:45:42
  Speaker 3: talked myself into it. That was almost gonna be on
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 3: my card anyway, so let's do it. Those are the plays.
• 1:45:49
  Speaker 3: Learn it tone on Twitter, learn it tone on Instagram,
• 1:45:51
  Speaker 3: Like subscribe to the channel here. You better get those notifications, man,
• 1:45:55
  Speaker 3: hopefully you get them. I'm subscribed to this channel with
• 1:45:59
  Speaker 3: some of my other accounts, so I'll look and see
• 1:46:01
  Speaker 3: if I got the notification. I don't know, but it
• 1:46:03
  Speaker 3: better work. Hopefully. It's just a glitch with YouTube today. Man,
• 1:46:06
  Speaker 3: it might be that that's probably the more likely scenario.
• 1:46:12
  Speaker 3: This is on audio as well, Apple, Spotify. Go check
• 1:46:14
  Speaker 3: that out over there. Covered in you because my yuke
• 1:46:18
  Speaker 3: channel on YouTube, Pagreon dot com, slash learned to toe
• 1:46:21
  Speaker 3: if you want to support me there, it's all on
• 1:46:22
  Speaker 3: the link tree. If you go to my Twitter, my
• 1:46:24
  Speaker 3: link tree is there, linktree dot com, slash learn to
• 1:46:27
  Speaker 3: toad and you can find it that way. Loser Casts
• 1:46:29
  Speaker 3: will be back tonight. We have Dave Dave Wright, Dave
• 1:46:33
  Speaker 3: the Thinker, who is the co host of Brosif who's
• 1:46:36
  Speaker 3: one one of my co hosts on loser Casts. He
• 1:46:38
  Speaker 3: does a show with Dave. I've been on Dave's show before,
• 1:46:41
  Speaker 3: the corn Fed podcast, and now I haven't blocked because
• 1:46:44
  Speaker 3: he's an asshole on Twitter, so it'll be an interesting
• 1:46:47
  Speaker 3: dynamic tonight. But he is our guest tonight, so check
• 1:46:50
  Speaker 3: that out tonight. And then the g Spot Giants podcast
• 1:46:54
  Speaker 3: that I do with Ben Weir we'll be back at
• 1:46:57
  Speaker 3: some point as well, and we might have Adam not
• 1:46:58
  Speaker 3: around it again too. I don't know. We'll be doing
• 1:47:02
  Speaker 3: more episodes of that. Come back to this show, and
• 1:47:05
  Speaker 3: you know we'll continue covering all these sports man in
• 1:47:07
  Speaker 3: WNBA will start on Friday. I don't know if I'm
• 1:47:10
  Speaker 3: gonna have any plays right out of the gate with
• 1:47:12
  Speaker 3: the WNBA, but we did pretty well with the WNBA
• 1:47:16
  Speaker 3: last season, so I'm gonna try to do it again,
• 1:47:19
  Speaker 3: so that'll be in the mix with these plays. I'm
• 1:47:22
  Speaker 3: probably not gonna have any plays on the World Cup,
• 1:47:24
  Speaker 3: but I might cover it at least as far as
• 1:47:27
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna fill out like a knockout bracket at the
• 1:47:29
  Speaker 3: very least once that gets going. But that'll be next month.
• 1:47:32
  Speaker 3: I think that's gonna do it. I appreciate everybody. Peace, yes,
• 1:47:41
  Speaker 3: but don't you go quiet.
• 1:47:43
  Speaker 2: Don't you fade from the flow. Your name still mean
• 1:47:47
  Speaker 2: something to somebody for show.
• 1:47:49
  Speaker 4: Put the glass down, baby, look at me, No.
• 1:47:58
  Speaker 5: Hold on, hold on nothing nice.
• 1:48:04
  Speaker 1: Now, hold on, hold on. Let me bo you.
• 1:48:14
  Speaker 5: That lock by.
• 1:48:16
  Speaker 1: Hard but I don't get the crown.
• 1:48:22
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on and stay with me now