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Ten Years Gone | We Have Six Years to Fix Social Security. We Don't Have Time to Waste · I Believe

• 0:01
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome to I Believe where we talk about America.
• 0:05
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Joel Douglas, and I believe in America.
• 0:08
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks for joining me.
• 0:44
  unknown: Come back to play.
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_00: Sunday morning.
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_00: Time change.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_00: I was used to waking up at 5.30 in the morning during daylight saving time.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_00: We went back an hour, so now my body thinks it wants to wake up at 4.30.
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_00: The dogs have the same problem.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_00: Their breakfast schedule matches my wake up schedule, which means now they think they should eat breakfast at 4.30.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_00: They don't care what the clock says, they know when they normally eat and they expect breakfast.
• 1:15
  SPEAKER_00: Monday morning brought much the same thing.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_00: My body still hadn't adjusted, and neither had the dogs.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_00: Then Tuesday arrived, election day.
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_00: I woke up a little before 5.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_00: By that point, I had spent three mornings adjusting to the time change, and I was getting up earlier than I needed to.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_00: So, there I was at my polling station.
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_00: 6 52 Tuesday morning, outside in the cold, waiting for the polling station to open.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_00: About 20 people ahead of me.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_00: I have always been a fast test taker, and apparently that carries over to voting.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_00: I finished my ballot quick enough that I became the first person to put my ballot into the machine.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_00: The polling station guide congratulated me for being the first person to vote that morning.
• 2:01
  SPEAKER_00: And that brings me to one of the crucial issues that will come out of this election.
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_00: After promising to make life cost less and end forever wars, the Republicans spent the last two years stabbing the American people in the back, intentionally raising the cost of goods with tariffs and starting yet another war in the Middle East.
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_00: The people let them know they didn't appreciate it.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_00: Time for the Democrats to take a victory lap?
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_00: No.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_00: Time for an 0700 morning meeting.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_00: Among other priorities, we have six years to fix Social Security.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_00: The clock is running.
• 2:57
  SPEAKER_01: But the trustees estimate that they will only collect enough money to pay about 78% of scheduled benefits, a 22% shortfall.
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_01: Public math.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_01: A 22% reduction from a$2,000 a month Social Security check would cost a person$440 every month,$5,280 a year.
• 3:19
  SPEAKER_01: For someone who relies on Social Security to pay the mortgage, buy groceries, or cover medical expenses, that would make an enormous difference.
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_01: We can't reasonably expect those Americans to solve a problem that Congress has known about for decades.
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_01: No one isn't touched by this problem.
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_01: Everyone has a mother, a grandmother, who relies on Social Security.
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_01: We have to protect them.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_01: And if someone wants to get rid of Social Security, what happens to the people who already depend on it?
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_01: Their mortgage doesn't disappear, neither does their grocery bill.
• 3:53
  SPEAKER_01: We can tell a younger worker to start preparing for retirement.
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_01: What do we tell someone who has already retired and built a life around the check they were promised?
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_01: Those people still have to live.
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_01: Protecting them isn't enough.
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_01: We also have to make Social Security sustainable.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_01: Otherwise, we haven't solved anything.
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_01: We've just delayed the problem and left it for the next generation.
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_01: Ideally, we should build a system that doesn't force every generation of Americans to confront the same crisis.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_01: Those are three different goals.
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_01: Protect current beneficiaries, make the system financially sustainable, improve it for future generations.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_01: Addressing all three would be best.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_01: The first two can't wait.
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_01: And our first hurdle, we have to agree on why we have the program in the first place.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_01: We can tell people to save.
• 4:44
  SPEAKER_01: We should.
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_01: But what happens when someone becomes disabled before they have had time to build those savings?
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_01: What happens to a family when the person earning the money dies?
• 4:54
  SPEAKER_01: Misfortune doesn't wait until we have enough in the bank.
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_01: Then there are people who put off preparing.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_01: I'll start next year, after I pay off the car, after the kids leave home.
• 5:04
  SPEAKER_01: Some can't afford to save much.
• 5:07
  SPEAKER_01: Others could, but don't.
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_01: Either way, the years go by.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_01: So we can't make it optional.
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_01: If people's needs don't disappear when they get old or something goes wrong, then what?
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_01: Who supports them?
• 5:20
  SPEAKER_01: Their families?
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_01: Other taxpayers?
• 5:23
  SPEAKER_01: Do we leave them with nothing but hopes and prayers?
• 5:26
  SPEAKER_01: We can argue about what to do, but we still have to come up with an answer.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_00: This is the same problem for Congress.
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_00: It's a time problem.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_00: Let's suppose Congress begins working on Social Security in 2027.
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_00: Our representatives identify the problem, debate solutions, negotiate an agreement, and begin implementing changes.
• 5:50
  SPEAKER_00: They could spread those changes over several years, giving workers and employers time to adjust.
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_00: Now the alternative.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_00: Congress spends 2027 arguing.
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_00: 2028 arrives, and politicians decide that Social Security reform might hurt their election prospects.
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_00: So they wait.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_00: Another election comes and goes.
• 6:10
  SPEAKER_00: Congress begins a new session in 2029.
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_00: Members introduce legislation, committees hold hearings, and everybody explains why somebody else's proposal won't work.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_00: Then 2030 arrives.
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_00: Another election.
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_00: Suddenly, we reach 2031.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_00: We had six years.
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_00: We spent four of them doing nothing.
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_00: Now we have less than two years before the fund reaches its projected depletion date.
• 6:36
  SPEAKER_00: The government has continued paying more in Social Security benefits than the program collects in revenue.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_00: The trust fund has continued drawing down its reserves.
• 6:45
  SPEAKER_00: The projection is that Social Security's costs will exceed its total income throughout the next 75 years.
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_00: And Congress has eliminated four years it could have worked towards gradual changes.
• 6:57
  SPEAKER_00: If we need more revenue, we have fewer years to collect it.
• 7:01
  SPEAKER_00: If we want to change benefits for future retirees without hurting current beneficiaries, we have less time to phase in those changes.
• 7:09
  SPEAKER_00: Congress can still act, but lawmakers will have fewer options to make adjustments.
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_00: Waiting may mean larger tax increases or deeper benefit cuts than acting now would require.
• 7:19
  SPEAKER_00: We would be asking people to absorb more of the change in less time.
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_00: The size depends on the proposal and when it starts, but the years we waste are gone.
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_00: And if we are serious about protecting the people already receiving benefits, we need to leave ourselves time to do it.
• 7:36
  SPEAKER_00: We could spend six years solving the problem, or we could waste four years and spend the remaining two explaining why we didn't act sooner.
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_01: We have options, but they are all terrible, and we shouldn't pretend otherwise.
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_01: Let's start with the money workers and employers already contribute.
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_01: Workers pay 6.2% of their wages into Social Security, and employers contribute another 6.2%.
• 8:03
  SPEAKER_01: Together, that's 12.4%.
• 8:06
  SPEAKER_01: What would happen if we increased contributions by one percentage point each?
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_01: Bottom line.
• 8:12
  SPEAKER_01: This two percentage point increase in the combined payroll tax wouldn't close the funding gap.
• 8:17
  SPEAKER_01: Let's keep digging.
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_02: Social Security taxes don't apply to unlimited wages.
• 8:24
  SPEAKER_02: The government collects Social Security taxes on the first$184,500 of an employee's annual earnings.
• 8:33
  SPEAKER_02: Should we eliminate the cap?
• 8:35
  SPEAKER_02: If we did, high-income employees and their employers would contribute more to Social Security.
• 8:42
  SPEAKER_02: Of course, there's a philosophical problem here.
• 8:46
  SPEAKER_02: Social Security has been sold to us as a social insurance plan.
• 8:50
  SPEAKER_02: If you and I buy the same insurance policy, why would you pay more just because you earn more than me?
• 8:57
  SPEAKER_02: How is paying into Social Security different?
• 9:01
  SPEAKER_02: We have to be willing to talk about the point of the program if we expect people to agree to changes.
• 9:10
  SPEAKER_01: Next, Social Security depends on payroll taxes.
• 9:14
  SPEAKER_01: When more people work, the government generally collects more revenue.
• 9:18
  SPEAKER_01: Higher wages also generate additional contributions, at least until workers reach the taxable earnings cap.
• 9:25
  SPEAKER_01: What if we increase the federal minimum wage to$25 an hour?
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_01: Workers who currently earn less would receive higher wages, generating additional payroll taxes.
• 9:35
  SPEAKER_01: But employers would face higher labor costs.
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_01: Some could absorb them.
• 9:40
  SPEAKER_01: Others might raise prices, reduce hours, or eliminate positions.
• 9:46
  SPEAKER_02: What about immigration?
• 9:48
  SPEAKER_02: Suppose we increased legal immigration by 5%.
• 9:53
  SPEAKER_02: If additional immigrants entered the workforce and paid Social Security taxes, they would contribute to the program.
• 10:00
  SPEAKER_02: Some would eventually collect benefits themselves.
• 10:03
  SPEAKER_02: We would need to examine their ages, employment, earnings, and eligibility to understand the financial effects.
• 10:11
  SPEAKER_02: But additional workers could help in the near term.
• 10:17
  SPEAKER_01: More revenue isn't the only possibility.
• 10:20
  SPEAKER_01: We could cut everybody's Social Security benefits by 10 or 20%.
• 10:24
  SPEAKER_01: This would impose enormous hardship on people who depend on those benefits.
• 10:29
  SPEAKER_01: Consider someone who retired five years ago.
• 10:32
  SPEAKER_01: That person spent an entire career contributing to Social Security and made retirement decisions partly around the benefits they expected.
• 10:40
  SPEAKER_01: Now, Congress tells them that because they couldn't come up with a solution, their monthly check will shrink.
• 10:46
  SPEAKER_01: What are they supposed to do?
• 10:47
  SPEAKER_01: And what politician wants to stand in front of those people and explain that decision?
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_01: We can put a 10 or 20% cut on a spreadsheet, but getting Congress to vote for it is another matter.
• 10:59
  SPEAKER_01: Those people vote.
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_01: So do their families.
• 11:02
  SPEAKER_01: A proposal has to survive that argument, not just improve a column of numbers.
• 11:09
  SPEAKER_00: So, terrible options.
• 11:11
  SPEAKER_00: All of them.
• 11:12
  SPEAKER_00: No one wants to raise taxes or cut benefits.
• 11:15
  SPEAKER_00: None of the options is a solution.
• 11:18
  SPEAKER_00: They all mean something we don't like.
• 11:20
  SPEAKER_00: That's not the point.
• 11:22
  SPEAKER_00: The point is what we don't have, the time.
• 11:25
  SPEAKER_00: Every solution will disappoint somebody.
• 11:28
  SPEAKER_00: Workers don't want higher taxes.
• 11:30
  SPEAKER_00: Employers don't want higher labor costs.
• 11:32
  SPEAKER_00: Retirees don't want smaller benefits.
• 11:35
  SPEAKER_00: Younger workers don't want to spend more years working.
• 11:38
  SPEAKER_00: Politicians don't want proposals that might cost them votes.
• 11:42
  SPEAKER_00: We can use our years to develop solutions, negotiate compromises, and give Americans time to adjust.
• 11:49
  SPEAKER_00: Or we can spend four years arguing and leave ourselves two years to solve a problem we've known about for decades.
• 11:56
  SPEAKER_00: The clock is running.
• 11:57
  SPEAKER_00: Ten years gone already.
• 11:59
  SPEAKER_00: We have six years.
• 12:01
  SPEAKER_00: We need to use them.
• 12:06
  SPEAKER_03: All gone to the hand of self-destruction.
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_03: Give me a stay on smoke this day today.