Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / AutoNation CEO on the Environment for Vehicle Sales

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AutoNation CEO on the Environment for Vehicle Sales · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Mike Jackson, he's the
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: CEO of Auto Nation. Um, I'm not going to say
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: one of the biggest car dealers in the world. Is that?
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: Is that true globally? Mike? Are you guys one of
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: the biggest in the world. Well, if there's life on
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: other planets, we might not be being be the biggest
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: in the universe. But um, yeah, I think we are.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: I think we are, and we arned to your point.
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: I mean, think about it. We did seven billion dollars
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: worth of revenue in the second quarter this year, and
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: the environment for vehicle sales is very good. You and
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: I talked about it a year ago where I said,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: you know, with this pandemic and shelter in place, America
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: is reasserting sense of independence and they want to decide
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: where they go when they go and how they go
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: and they want a personal vehicle. So demand is strong
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: and automation's performance within that environment is exceptional. Is it
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: difficult to get UM inventory? Well, on the new vehicle side,
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: there's no question that the manufacturers had a tremendous challenge
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: to restart production, and I have to tip my hat
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: to them. And then earlier this year they really got
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: hit with the shortage on microchips. But I would point
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: out our shipments in the second quarter doubled from a
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: year ago, are only six to seven percent down from UM,
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: but demand is far far higher. So it's not that
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: the industry can't make anything. Uh, it's that this earlier
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: point that I made, that demand is very strong for
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: vehicles and that's both new and preoped. So give the center,
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: having you know, a little bit of a hindsight, are
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: you surprised that the O E M s had that
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: production difficulty still have that production difficulty, that that perhaps
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: this just in time inventory may not maybe too finely tuned,
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: that a chip shortage of all things can halt Detroit, Well,
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: it is halting the world. So yes, the entire just
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: in time production system is being rethought because the relative
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: cost of a chip versus the disruption to production is
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: tremendously out of whack, and they're having meetings right now
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: saying why shouldn't we have more of this, more of
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: these chips on hand. That you can't, you can't bring
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: the whole thing uh to such a disrupted state. So
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: that that is a fair point. UH. What no one
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: foresaw though, is that again going back to this god
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: awful pandemic TOI. Consequences came out of that the consumer reorder,
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: reoriented parking book towards their home. They wanted more space,
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: larger space with more electronics, and they wanted personal vehicles,
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: both of which demand chips. So the demand for chips
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: went up in the housing electronics industry at the same
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: time one up in the avnable bull industry, and therefore
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: we have this chip shortage. You can't build these microchip
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: factories from one day to the next. They're extremely complex.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: And that then also asked another whole strategic question, should
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: we be so dependent America on microchips coming out of
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: Southeast Adia? Is this really where we want to be
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: as a country. So all of that's being rethought and
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: rediscussed as a consequence of this pandemic. Well, and we're
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: you know, taking on a ton of debt in order
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: to um figure out what's going on here on a
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: national level. On a company level, you guys are just
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: killing it right now. And makes me, uh, you know
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: under in a buyer's market, you're just struggling and competing
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: and maybe you're borrowing to try and or our margins
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: are getting hit right now. Um, you know these are
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: good times for you. Are you taking advantage of that too?
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: You know, um, somehow retrench somehow reorganized somehow you know.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: I mean, you have the money now, so are you
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: Are you looking to change the business a little bit?
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: While while we're in the will, while you have the
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: gravy train, I feel like we're doing more than running
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: the gravy train. But there's no question in the environment
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: for vehicles is good, and there's no question that automation
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: is outperforming tremendously in that positive environment. And we've done
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: it all. We've dramatically increased revenue with our brand and
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: our customer experience on our digital platform. We use the
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: digital platform to take out costs. Uh, We reduced by
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: We're doing a much larger business with several thousand fewer
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: employees because our digital tool are so strong and so capable.
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: We have aggressively led the market in uh supplying our
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: our stores with pre owned vehicles when we saw the
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: swords coming in new vehicles. Imagine our pre owned business
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: on a revenue basis is up six year over year. Yeah,
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: I would say that's grabbing the opportunity. Mike. I'd love
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: to get your thoughts. I mean, nobody has you know, uh,
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: you know, greater feel for where the consumer is, the
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: auto buying consumer is right now, just give us your
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: thoughts on this whole e V transition. How do you
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: think it will proceed? Are you ever going to convince
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: a you know, Matt Miller to go electric? I'm not
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: sure I have to. So the inflection point for the migration,
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: let's use that word. It's not a stampede, it's a migration. Uh.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: Despite all the headlines from the internal combustion engine two
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: electric battery electric vehicles is underway. So let me put
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: that in some sort of perspect though. If I go
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: out to which is a long time away, I think, okay,
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: of what's sold new will be all electric, uh, and
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: the vehicles and operation in the United States six seven
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: will be all electric. So this is not like going
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: from the flip phone to the smartphone, where you throw
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: one thing away. The internal combustion engine vehicles have a
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: lifespan of twenty five years something like that. Are going
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: to be have a useful life that somebody will pay
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: for them and are of value to them. But I'm
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: also not in denial. We love of electric vehicles. We're
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: gonna sell electric vehicles. We offer them from all the manufacturers.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: They have great stuff coming. But it's going to be
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: a gradual migration, not a stampede. Yeah, I mean, I'm
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: still I'm gonna get there eventually, but I'm waiting for,
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: you know, the new raptor to come out. The raptor
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: are to come out. I want to get there. You've
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: got that hummer. I could even maybe talking into that
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: Humber at all electric converse. Well well well wait, well wait,
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: I just need one more big V eight and then
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna switch switch over. But Mike, it's always great
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: to talk. I just bought my last V twelve, and
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: the last one made I'm very happy V twelve. That's
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: that's on another level. But of course, your stocks at
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: an all time high. So you can do that, Michael Jackson.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: There you see of Auto Nation stock trading right now
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: at a hundred and seven dollars and fifty three cents,
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: as I said, in an all time high. It's but
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: it's an incredible chart to look at. Um. And because
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: the business has done so well, I'm always looking on
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: the on the website. Uh. And there is drive Electrified
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: right there on the website. So they are definitely pushing
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: and selling those cars. This is Bloomberg, Matt. When I
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: was on the South side, boy, you had to get
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: the Pittsburgh at least once a year to see the
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: good folks at Federated Federator at Hermes. Now I would
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: tend to do it during a baseball or hockey season.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: I can catch a game. R J. Galli, Senior portfolio manager,
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: head of the bond group at Federator Hermi's he joins us.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: I was an equity guy, r J. So I never
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: bothered you. But boy, I look at the tenure one
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: point to zero percent. What do you make of this
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: treasury market right here? Well, good morning, and I have
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: my glasses on so I can see. Um. You know,
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: it's been brutal. Uh. You know, Frankly, we as a firm,
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: especially the duration pot which on the chair of and
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: we sort of assess what we think are the likely
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: drivers of raids and position accordingly within our actively managed
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: fixed income funds. We've had a pretty significant short on
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: for for what I would say has been a painful
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: pain trade. Um. I think initially markets moving, Yeah, exactly,
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: markets have trouble moving. When everybody's position to one side
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: of the boat, you know, it moves the boat, and
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: so some of that is is just the sort of
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: the way markets work. I think it's clearly been inflamed, however,
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: by the fact that there was some sense that we're
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: moving past COVID. The delta variant uh was was not
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: ppping up on the UK, but it's certainly crept up
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: on the United States and then in the last number
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: of weeks. Um. That's not the only factor, though, you know,
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: the US has been a pretty good place to put
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: money for yield for foreign investors if you hedge out
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: the f X risk again or Euro based investors getting
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: much higher yields here than they are on their home markets.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: So there's been reasons that capitals found its way to
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: our shores. We felt that that would be a temporary
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: technical boost to treasury prices and pushing yields down. UM. Now,
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: you know, with the delta variant, it's it's been a
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: little humbling. We had a pretty good confidence that our
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: call was gonna work, uh drive driven by inflation and growth,
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: and then there's a lot of headwinds to it right now. Yeah.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: I was talking to UM a portfolio manager this morning
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: who was saying, you know, people should maybe buy treasuries
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: as a hedge, as insurance in case everything goes wrong.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: But that has to be terrifying to do, especially at
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: the long end, you know, because if then all of
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: a sudden um rates rise a hundred basis points, you're
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: out twenty percent of your capital. If he was talking
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: about t buills where you're not taking a lot of
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: price risk, I think he's got a point. But I'm
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: with you. Like to buy ten year or thirty year
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: treasuries as insurance, that's insurance that could sort of burn
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: you up if you don't have the house fire. I mean,
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: that's just not prudent. Our vue has been all along
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: that even though real yields now, have you have returned
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: to you know, basement levels the ten year tips right
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: now that are negative hundred and eleven basis points. The
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: economy is not in that basement. These really yields fundamentally
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: should not preside for much longer. That's right. GP Morgan says,
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: these yields indicate an expectation of only a half percent
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: GDP growth of the next twelve months, even though the
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: JP Morgan analysts who said that expect more than three
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: and a half percent of GDP growth over the next
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: twelve months. So what's Yeah, there's a huge disconnect I
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: think between what is what is an intact economic recovery
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: with huge supports from fiscal policy that's still being spent,
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: but albeit out of diminishing rates, And this idea of
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: peak growth makes very little sense if you look at
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: the charts for forty years. It is true that when
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: you hit peak growth in an economic recovery, thereafter rates
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: tend to somewhat decline. But all those other periods, really
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: yields were astronomically positive and high. You know, we are
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: at a period now where really yields are shockingly low
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: and negative. So attaching that explanation to this seems to
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: be a bit of a reach. I think really this
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: started is technical and now has become a concern. Is
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: the COVID nightmare is still all very fresh in our
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: minds and it's not yet over. I do think some
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: of it is capital flows, some of it is foreign flows,
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: A good bit of it is shortcovering and pain trade.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: We still like being short, but I have to admit
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: it's been humbling. We're looking for an opportunity to reassess
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: at somewhat higher yield than today that make more sense
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: in you know, the medium term, than what we've seen
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: on our screens right now. It feels it feels like
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: a kind of the momentum e type market here are
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: j Is Is there something that you guys are looking
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: forward to perhaps reverse that momentum? Is it a data point?
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: Is it perhaps an incremental positive data point on the
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: delta variant? Is it something technical? What are you looking
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: forward to perhaps turn this thing around? Well? Up till
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: even today, we've been feeling that in that repeated inflation
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: prints will convince enough in the market that they need
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: greater compensation for the inflation risk, which is clearly biased
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: to the upside. That the transitory argument will apply to
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: many components of the c p I and pc PC,
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: but not enough of them and inflation will be too
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: strong relative to the Fed Zone expectations. That's a narrative.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: I think Powell almost has come around to their acknowledging
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: that inflation risk is to the high side, and they're
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: saying if it doesn't prove to be the translatory, they
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: may act differently. So we felt that the inflation data,
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: just the drumbeat of continued inflation, would sort of cast
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: a shadow over the transitory argument and help reest that
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: yields to somewhat higher levels than where they are today,
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: still not record levels. We thought that maybe the tenure
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: would be closer to it with a one seventy uh
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: come the end of you know, the third quarter, maybe
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: two percent by the end of the year, and we
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: haven't thrown the talent on that. I do feel that
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: the delta variant story as we head into the fall,
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: I know it's still very much summer, but when you
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: start getting more and more people inside, we need the
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: vaccination to take the narrative back, and right now the
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: vaccination narrative is on the wayne and instead we're having
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: more political controversy over vaccines and you're seeing lower vaccinated
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: areas get more cases, and possitalizations have picked up. While
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: we're on bitcoin, let's talk about TikTok. They launched a
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: new resumes program in here in the US, enabling people
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: to post job resumes, job pitches, or job well, I
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: guess like apply for jobs with videos. Angie Hannah joins us.
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: She's the global Chief Talent Office or for our g A.
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: And this is kind of like a new era I
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: guess that we're entering. I would think you don't take
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: somebody seriously if they give you a TikTok resume video.
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: But I guess you know, I'm just too old, Angie,
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: is this legit? It's it's funny that you you say that,
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: because I have the same reaction at first, Um, and
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: thought would I even do such a thing since I
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: have my nine year old begging for TikTok all the time. However, Um,
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: as I looked into it a lot further, it's I
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: think it's a pretty brilliant idea. What for me? It
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: really allows companies to engage in a meaningful way. Um,
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: I think it will be for more of the gen z. However, Um,
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: I've had a couple of different people since TikTok launched
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: this reach out to me different platforms to talk about
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: more integrative ways of hiring. And so I think that
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: this is this could be a you know, a place
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: where people could get niche career advice. They also can
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: really show who they are, which is what I love
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: about it. People can be really authentic and resumes, there's
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: so much about what you've done versus what you can do.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: But I think I think this is I think it's
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: it's a really interesting way for companies to engage with talent.
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: It does actually show who you are. Though you know,
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: I have to say growing up um here in New
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: York and in the Great State of Ohio and then
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: moving to New York, I was always taught that you
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: don't include a picture with the resume because you don't
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: want that to influence. Now, in Europe, it's a standard
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: part of your Yeah, at least in Germany it's it's
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: it's it's standard. But of course everybody in Germany looks
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: the same. Right, are there going to be any issues
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: with that? You think? You know, that's it's a good question.
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: I think time will tell um you're right. Standard practice
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: wasn't to have a picture on there. I think now
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: more than ever, with all the things going on in
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: the world. UM, I don't think it's a I don't
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: think it's a bad thing at all. I do think
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: it allows people to be more authentic and actually show
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: some of their you know there yourself, Angie. UM, I'm
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: just gonna hear the markets here, the dow off just
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: about eight points here, we keep two point two. And
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: let's talk about just hiring in general. Here we Matt
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: and I hear from company CEOs all the time that
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: they have a hard time, uh, finding people to fill slots.
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: Is it as simple as just paying people more money? Now?
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: Good question. We you know, my industry we're seeing seeing this, UM.
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: It's it's not about just paying more money at all.
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: People After what we've gone through in the last year
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: and a half, people want choice, they want flexibility. We're
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: still in a pandemic, you know. Let's be honest, and
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: I think after the last year and a half, people
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: have spent a lot of time UM thinking about what
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: what they want to do. And even within our own organization,
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: we've seen an uptick in our internal mobility program. People
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: wanting to UM switch careers all together, moving into a
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: different departments. And so I think I think we're gonna
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: have to. Companies are really going to have to not
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: only give that flexibility, but create more choices and more
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: opportunity for people. And money is something we're also seen.
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: And they want to work remotely and they want to
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: you know what they want. They want your boss to
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: be nice to you. I read a story today about
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: some boss said, you know, he had a gun to
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: his employees heads. Obviously he didn't. Really, that's a figure
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: of speech. When I was a kid, that's what your
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: boss said to you. Apparently now that's considered bullying and
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: it creates I can't remember. They call a toxic culture.
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: Toxic culture. That's bad, right, that is bad. It is bad, yes,
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: and it is. It is happening more and more. Um that. Yes, people,
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: do you want more of that flexibility? Again, it's we
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: everybody's been working from home over zoom or you know
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: whatever platform people use, and and so yes, they do
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: want some different, uh, different opportunities and they do want
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: to see um an environment where they can thrive. And
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: you know, I have to agree, I think you get
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: the best set of people when you're not holding a
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: gun to their head. And so I think I think
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: that companies shifting a little bit more to a growth mindset.
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: It's probably what we could call that. Just get over
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: right now to Lewis. Navalier is the chairman, CEO and
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: c i O of Navalier and Associates, And I guess
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: you know the most important thing. Well, I'd like to
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: ask you what is the most important thing to focus
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: on this earning season, because it seems like especially companies
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: that have stable margins that can pass on input costs,
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: that can deal with inflation are doing best correct, and
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: the ones that provide strong guidance are definitely going to
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: be rewarded. You know, this is peak sales and arrange
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: momentum because of easy ear year comparisons. But those few
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: stocks that will sustain strong sales arens momentum um should
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: break out as leaders. I expect the market to them
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: more narrow, more fun, the night focused and um. You know,
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: we're very fortunate where we have three weeks of very
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: strong earnings coming out now and that should help the
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: market turn here. All right, when you get a day
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: like today, Louis, you know again we're off two point
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: three on the DOW, on on the SMP healthy one
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: day short term pullback or are you're reading anything more
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: into this? Well, I have to watch the volume. If
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: the volumes high, it's going to continue. But we've been
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: in an asselin market for some time, so what I
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: expect is we might get a reversal, maybe as late
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: as the last hour today. UM. A lot of it
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: also depends on the e t F world. You know,
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: E t s do trade at premiums and discounts, and
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: if those discounts today starting to widen a bit, that
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: will cause a panic in the e t F world.
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: And so we don't want to see that because then
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: the market would feed on itself. But you know, the
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: market to maut of crowd, we just have to exhaust
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: the selling pressure. So it will be interesting to see
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: how long it lasts. I mean how much. If I
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: look at treasury yields at one seventeen, if I look
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: at you yields, it negative one point one percent or
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: even lower. Right now, that just freaks me out, you know,
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: because like JP Morgan says, um, that means the bond
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: market and these are supposed to be the smart guys,
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: right this is the smart money. That's what we said
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: in the in the eighties and the nineties. This is
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: a smart money. The air forecasting economic growth of zero
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: point five percent over the next year. So is that
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: part of the sell off? Uh well, it's clearly the
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: short term oasis. Okay, but yeah, we're all freaked out
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: that inflation spikes and an interest rate spell that's not normal. Um.
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: I was personally freaked out by Thursday's producer price index
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: because it was service costs and those costs aren't going
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: to back off. So although we have oil and lumber
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: and some other commodity costs back enough, the core rate
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: inflation is going to be suvenly high, and I don't
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: think it's gonna be as transitory as that said wants.
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: The other thing is we're definitely entering and menteur. Our
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: government is doing what Europe's doing, and the problem is
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: that means we may be on the road to negative rates,
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: and uh so there's a flight for yield. Um. You know,
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: the corporate demand for bonds is unbelievable, and I've been
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: saying that, you know, corpor heels mighty being shoving Trevor
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: Kurgie Oels Lolla but nothing makes any sense right now.
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: But when the dust settles, stocks are great buy and
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: of course the stock market heels more than the bonds
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: and socks are still at tax avenge. All right, Louis,
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: I've been trying to get my colleague Tom keenan entry
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: point into this market. So when you get some of
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: those panic phone calls, which you may get on a
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: day like today, do you tell folks to say, hey,
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: we're still constructive on this market. Look, this is as
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: as perhaps a buying opportunity. What do you what do
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: you say? I tell the and I do have those
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: calls today, um, and I had some last week. I
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: tell everybody that UM in social buying pressure to add
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: last week after the inflation numbers. And I tell everybody
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: the shorts love to try to use the strong stocks
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: just before it needs to come out, but when er
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: needs to come out, they'll run for cover and we'll
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: be sorting all this out there very quickly. So, UM,
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: you know, we are glossy over sold right now. So
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: we're going to bounce and the marketstantially awfully, So if
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: you're brave, you can jump in today otherwisely for the
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: volume and then jump in. So the market. I mean
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: by the dip has been a strategy that works well, Um,
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: you've been a winner if you've been pacting that strategy.
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: But UM short treasuries hasn't. What do you do in
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: fixed income? You do? Dividend growth is what you do.
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: You can get a yield of three four um. Uh,
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: you want to buy stocks at double the divends every
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: six seven years, so that could be you know, Costco,
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: Kroger Sgate Technology. You know, there's plenty of stocks out
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: there that you that have very nice shields and then
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: are going to continue to grow their dividends. But do
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: you think that we're going to see UM treasuries yields
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: continue to fall if we are doing modern monetary theory,
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: which is unlimited money printing. Yes. And uh. I asked
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: at Ardini that personally a few weeks ago, because you know,
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: I subscribe to services and he admitted that we are
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: doing mode montery theory us and when we're gonna have
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: negative rates and he couldn't a grass that yet and
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: I don't think any of us can. But look what
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: happened and your look how Britain resisted negative rates and
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: now their rates are negative. Thanks for listening to the
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews
• 23:39
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• 23:47
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