Latest / Professional Ag Marketing Podcast / 2024 Crop Tour Day 2

Transcript

2024 Crop Tour Day 2 · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:01
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome to the Professional Ag Marketing Podcast.
• 0:04
  SPEAKER_01: If you want a deep dive into the ag markets and risk management strategies, your search is over.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_01: Come here after every Friday to get your weekly commodity recap.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_01: Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_01: This is your host, Mike Minor.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_01: Let's get started.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_01: Today is August 5th.
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_01: I've got Jaden with us today.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_01: How's it going, Jaden?
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_01: Good, how about you, Mike?
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_01: Awesome.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_01: So we got done with our day two of the crop tour here.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_01: Talk about the markets real quick to kick off kind of a black Monday here to start off the trading week.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_01: You know, the uh grain prices, probably not the best close at the end of the day here for what they traded most of the day, anyways, on the soybeans.
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_01: However, it's been a uh uh very interesting uh trading pattern that we've had as these shorts started to get really covered up on uh the grain markets here, anyways, and uh started to see some of the risk-off attitude spill into these commodities.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, you know, the cattle market took it the hardest for sure on the egg commodities here today.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_01: Uh the equities, though, uh a really rough day to start off on Monday.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_01: Uh maybe a little bit better here on the overnight, anyways, on the equities.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_01: Turning around a little bit tonight.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_01: It looks like we're a little bit lower on the uh grain markets here yet again.
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_01: So today, our little recap that we had on uh our route was another how many miles today, Jaden?
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_01: 580.
• 1:33
  SPEAKER_01: 580 miles today.
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_01: We really traveled through the northern side of uh Missouri into Illinois and Indiana and uh wrapped up our Missouri part of the crop tour.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_01: But mostly what we're gonna focus on here tonight is we're gonna update you on the final yield on Missouri that we are coming out with uh and kind of what we thought about that crop.
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_01: So uh comparing year over year samples is what we'll focus on, uh comparing uh this year's samples and uh prior records and uh looking at some of the five-year averages for uh our samples and then versus where the states come in on average.
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_01: So uh last year was a very unique year for the state of Missouri.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_01: Northeastern corner was very dry.
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_01: Uh some of the spots I didn't even stop to take samples because it was so rough uh in that part of the uh state.
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_01: So it was a really rough uh go on the eastern, kind of northeastern side of the state.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_01: If you went towards the west, not quite as bad, but nonetheless, we did like a 153, I think, last year for the Missouri corn yield average, and big difference this year.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, uh from the samples we took uh in multiple locations here, we didn't get quite as far south into Missouri this year to save some time to get into further Ohio, uh something we'll be planning on doing here uh more often through the crop tour.
• 2:53
  SPEAKER_01: But through our samples today through Missouri, things look fantastic, pushing records, um uh fantastic samples that we took, anyways, uh not holding the yield back at all from the samples we had received, or a lot from the eye test on the road.
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_01: But one thing we did see through uh through kind of northern Missouri and maybe southeastern Nebraska that we kind of didn't notice yesterday, but we really saw today was that we've seen some drought creep in from kind of Oklahoma, Kansas, south, kind of farther southwest, and that's poked up into the southern Nebraska area and kind of into Missouri here a little bit.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_01: We don't see it on the drought map really yet, but we are seeing it a little bit in the field, so it'll be interesting to see maybe Thursday the drought map that'll come out.
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_01: Are we gonna see a little bit more drought through kind of uh, you know, that southwestern part of the corn belt, kind of into western Missouri and kind of into southern Nebraska a little bit more?
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_01: I think we will.
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_01: Uh we're seeing it a little bit with uh firing up in uh crop conditions, maybe, but however, that's being very nitpicky again, like we talked about last night.
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_01: Uh overall, the state of Missouri looks fantastic.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_01: We came out with a uh 175, and uh that's a very easy yield for us to come out with right now based upon our samples.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_01: However, just uh some of the dryness concerns with the forecast with where we're sitting going forward, you know, that's gonna hold that back a little bit.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_01: So we're gonna need some key rains.
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_01: Uh most of the day here that we traveled in this part of the world, it was in the 90s and sunny out almost a whole day.
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_01: We're back home in uh in Sioux Falls there uh in in the 60s tonight, pretty cold through most of the day.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_01: So wrapping up uh Missouri, I guess, as a state here, uh, you know, uh the record yield was what looking back, Jaden?
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_01: Uh 186, Mike.
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_01: Well, 186.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_01: So a lot of uh five-year averages would have been in that 160s.
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_01: 158, yeah.
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, 158.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_01: So uh for us to come out anywhere in the 170s is a fantastic yield for the Missouri crop, not gonna hold us back from obtaining that that trend line yield at all in this example.
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_01: And then we worked our way into southern Illinois.
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_01: Uh McLean looked fantastic again.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, uh when it comes to the Illinois and Indiana side of the south side of our uh south crop tour here through these first few stops, you know, we're not gonna have a lot to say because we saw the same crop all day long, like Dylan said here earlier.
• 5:23
  SPEAKER_01: So when I look at this crop, anyways, fantastic conditions all day.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_01: And to pick apart it all, we had to be pretty nitpicky.
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_01: But what did you take from it, Jaden?
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, Mike, you hit the nail on the head.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_00: I would say, I mean, it's kind of hard to tell a difference between the crop.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_00: Everything looks pretty much the same, everything's looking really green, and like you said, we gotta be pretty nitpicky to um have any uh uh uh negative comments about the crop.
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_00: For sure.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_01: And I would say Indiana, especially, really, really good crops and really good samples that we've taken from this state so far.
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_01: Uh we are starting to get on the eastern side of the state here to where we do see some drought maybe popping up in this, so maybe we will see a little bit more signs of stress, but again, being a little bit picky here with uh what we've seen at this point.
• 6:10
  SPEAKER_01: Uh the Indiana, the Illinois, and then the entirety of Missouri that we've seen, honestly, at this point, uh not any three of those stops today uh for those states uh out of how I don't know how many stops we took today, but twelve.
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_01: Twelve total stops in between those two states or uh in between their stops today.
• 6:34
  SPEAKER_01: Twelve total, eight today.
• 6:35
  SPEAKER_01: Eight today, twelve total stops so far.
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_01: Uh the ones the stops we had today are not a limiting factor in this corn yield reaching a trend at all.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_01: Uh very, very nice crop that we're seeing in this eastern corn belt here, I guess.
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_01: So any final thoughts on this crop?
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_01: Nope.
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_01: Alright, so let's get into some of the tools that we're experiencing uh here on our website.
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_01: You can go on, you can put your yield samples in, you can play around with the uh yield for each state as well.
• 7:02
  SPEAKER_01: We've got, I think, Stonex numbers plugged in there automatically when you pull the uh pull the calculator up so you can adjust those and calculate uh what you think the average U.S.
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_01: yield could potentially be there.
• 7:14
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, couple fun tools, interactive map there, and then uh that'll take you straight to our Twitter and uh podcast that you're listening to here as well.
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_01: Uh thank you for joining us today.
• 7:25
  SPEAKER_01: We'll see you tomorrow where we are gonna finish up uh we're gonna finish up Indiana here, working through Ohio, and uh then back into the northern side of Indiana, and I think that's where we'll probably end the day tomorrow.
• 7:39
  SPEAKER_01: Thanks, guys, have a wonderful day.
• 7:41
  SPEAKER_01: And thank you to all our listeners.
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_01: Please reach out to us at professionaleggmarketing.com.
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_01: Check out our other podcast as well, Professional Egg Marketing, that's released every Friday.
• 7:51
  SPEAKER_01: Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 7:57
  SPEAKER_01: See ya next time.