Latest / Toadstool Sports / Thursday BEST BETS | The Other Daniels | NHL & MLB Divisional Series & NCAA Football & NFL | 10/8/26

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Thursday BEST BETS | The Other Daniels | NHL & MLB Divisional Series & NCAA Football & NFL | 10/8/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: in your chest.
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: Black coffee on the felt, man, you look like a mess.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Three-team parlay turned to dust in your head. Now you
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: stare at the chips like they made you this mad.
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: But don't you go quiet, don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Your name still means something to somebody for sure.
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: Put the glass down, baby.
• 0:45
  Speaker 3: Look at me now.
• 0:49
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on Not tonight, not now Hold on,
• 0:59
  Speaker 4: hold on Let me pull you out That fell apart
• 1:07
  Speaker 4: by its heart But it don't get the.
• 1:12
  Speaker 5: Crown Hold on, hold on, stay with me now.
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: What's up, everybody?
• 1:28
  Speaker 6: It's Toad back with you. Toadstool Sports, Thursday, October 8th.
• 1:34
  Speaker 6: Kind of mad that I skipped the board yesterday because
• 1:37
  Speaker 6: my top two opinions were correct with the Ottawa, excuse me,
• 1:41
  Speaker 6: not Ottawa, Edmonton.
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: Some Canadian team. Who knows the difference? No, I'm just kidding.
• 1:45
  Speaker 6: Edmonton, that was an easy winner with Edmonton. It would
• 1:50
  Speaker 6: have been if I put it on my card. And
• 1:51
  Speaker 6: then the under in Dodgers-Braves also would have been an
• 1:55
  Speaker 6: easy winner. So I'm not thrilled that I did not
• 1:59
  Speaker 6: have those on the card. But it is what it is, man.
• 2:03
  Speaker 6: I was not correct about Jacksonville State, although they won.
• 2:05
  Speaker 6: They did not cover. It was a close game throughout
• 2:08
  Speaker 6: the game. I was right about the other football game,
• 2:11
  Speaker 6: although my opinion was less strong on that one.
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: Whatever, man. The Yankees lost. I'm happy about that, obviously.
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: Tampa able to get it done.
• 2:21
  Speaker 6: I mean, I think it's pretty much guaranteed at this
• 2:24
  Speaker 6: point that the winner of the National League is going
• 2:26
  Speaker 6: to be the winner of the World Series.
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: So, yeah, unfortunately, that is probably the Dodgers.
• 2:31
  Speaker 6: Again, never know for sure. But, yeah, I mean, it's
• 2:36
  Speaker 6: definitely looking that way. Dirty Sock, what's up? Thanks for
• 2:39
  Speaker 6: hanging out. I had the NLCS matchup correct in my bracket,
• 2:43
  Speaker 6: and I have the Dodgers winning it in my bracket.
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: I did not have the American League correct. Although if
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: Cleveland somehow comes back here.
• 2:51
  Speaker 6: I could have three out of four of the CS
• 2:56
  Speaker 6: teams correct, so at least there's that.
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: I have one play today. It's in hockey. as you
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: might have been able to guess, because there's a lot
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: of hockey today. Well, nine games.
• 3:05
  Speaker 6: I was going through the board, and I really didn't
• 3:06
  Speaker 6: like what I was seeing, but I will have one play.
• 3:08
  Speaker 6: I don't even know if I like it, but I
• 3:10
  Speaker 6: think it is the strongest play that there is situationally,
• 3:14
  Speaker 6: and it's not this first game. Philadelphia at Ottawa. Although,
• 3:19
  Speaker 6: take a look at this game. Yeah, Ottawa's off to
• 3:21
  Speaker 6: a 2-1 start. That looks pretty good. They might be
• 3:24
  Speaker 6: the better of these two teams here, but you can
• 3:27
  Speaker 6: always be a little bit misled by what these records
• 3:30
  Speaker 6: look like early. Ottawa, I mean, their wins, the best
• 3:33
  Speaker 6: one was against Toronto. I mean, that's a good win, sure,
• 3:36
  Speaker 6: on the road against a potential playoff team. Beating the Bruins, yeah,
• 3:40
  Speaker 6: you know, that's less good. And they scored two shorthanded
• 3:44
  Speaker 6: goals right at the beginning of that game. So that
• 3:46
  Speaker 6: game was somewhat misleading. Then Ottawa finished their road trip
• 3:50
  Speaker 6: by losing to Detroit. That's not a great result. Now
• 3:53
  Speaker 6: they're returning home from a road trip. They've been on
• 3:55
  Speaker 6: the road for less than a week. This is going
• 3:58
  Speaker 6: to be their home opener, so sometimes the team will
• 4:01
  Speaker 6: get up for their home opener, and it'll be an
• 4:04
  Speaker 6: exciting situation and whatever. Playing a team that was in
• 4:07
  Speaker 6: the playoffs last year, of course, I don't think it's
• 4:11
  Speaker 6: one of the typical return home spots where Ottawa's going
• 4:13
  Speaker 6: to be totally distracted. Probably not the case because they
• 4:16
  Speaker 6: are playing a playoff team from last year. It is
• 4:18
  Speaker 6: their home opener, so I don't see them being fully
• 4:21
  Speaker 6: distracted here, but I'm not sure the spot is really
• 4:23
  Speaker 6: that great for them anyway. Philadelphia is 0-4 right now. Well,
• 4:28
  Speaker 6: really 0-2-2. But it doesn't look good that they've lost
• 4:32
  Speaker 6: all four of their games so far. Their schedule hasn't
• 4:35
  Speaker 6: really been that easy. They took Carolina to overtime. That
• 4:38
  Speaker 6: wasn't a bad result. They took New Jersey on the
• 4:41
  Speaker 6: road into overtime.
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: That's not that bad either.
• 4:43
  Speaker 6: Most recent result, they lost at Tampa.
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: Tampa's a good team too.
• 4:47
  Speaker 6: So Philadelphia, I think they're not as bad as their
• 4:51
  Speaker 6: current record looks at least.
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: I'll tell you that.
• 4:54
  Speaker 6: They're having to travel all the way up to Canada
• 4:56
  Speaker 6: here now from Florida, but they have a couple of
• 4:58
  Speaker 6: days off to do that. I think Philly is the
• 5:02
  Speaker 6: side that I would lean to in this one. I mean,
• 5:03
  Speaker 6: you're looking at a team that's winless. The public's not
• 5:06
  Speaker 6: going to want them. Ottawa's got 69% of the tickets,
• 5:09
  Speaker 6: although they have 85% of the cash, at least according
• 5:11
  Speaker 6: to this right now. Sometimes the money can change throughout
• 5:15
  Speaker 6: the day, though, so you do have to be aware
• 5:16
  Speaker 6: of that. You shouldn't put a ton of weight into
• 5:19
  Speaker 6: what the market looks like early, although I do like
• 5:22
  Speaker 6: the fact that the market's agreeing with my play, but
• 5:25
  Speaker 6: that is, I mean, it just is what it is.
• 5:27
  Speaker 6: Ottawa's like a minus 150 favorite in this one, so
• 5:30
  Speaker 6: oddsmakers are telling you they are the better team here.
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: That's what I got on that game. I have nothing else, really.
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: Utah at Boston.
• 5:41
  Speaker 6: Bruins, they're not good. They started off 2-0, but they suck.
• 5:46
  Speaker 6: Utah's a favorite on the road, so the oddsmakers are
• 5:48
  Speaker 6: telling you Utah's the better team here, which is correct.
• 5:51
  Speaker 6: bruins they are staying at home though and they're coming
• 5:53
  Speaker 6: off an ugly loss to ottawa when they returned home
• 5:56
  Speaker 6: and like i said that was misleading because the bruins
• 6:00
  Speaker 6: they just handed ottawa the game you cannot hand a
• 6:03
  Speaker 6: team two shorthanded goals with bad turnovers like immediately in
• 6:08
  Speaker 6: the game you can't do that so the bruins are
• 6:10
  Speaker 6: in a massive hole and they could never get out
• 6:12
  Speaker 6: of it after that um they might play better here
• 6:15
  Speaker 6: staying at home now um off of two straight losses,
• 6:19
  Speaker 6: off of kind of an embarrassing and misleading loss.
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: Utah just went into New Jersey and beat them.
• 6:26
  Speaker 6: Utah's coming off the somewhat better, I mean, they're definitely
• 6:28
  Speaker 6: coming off the better performance. That's a nice win for them.
• 6:31
  Speaker 6: They're now playing their fourth road game in a row here,
• 6:34
  Speaker 6: and it is also four games in six days, I
• 6:38
  Speaker 6: believe is what this is, all in different cities, basically.
• 6:41
  Speaker 6: So that's not easy to do either. So a little
• 6:43
  Speaker 6: bit of a difficult travel spot here for Utah. A
• 6:45
  Speaker 6: lot of games in quick succession here. I would lean
• 6:48
  Speaker 6: to the Bruins in this game as the underdog. Bruins,
• 6:52
  Speaker 6: that does not look like what the market is telling
• 6:54
  Speaker 6: you you should do. The Bruins look like a public underdog,
• 6:58
  Speaker 6: but there's no way. How could the Bruins be a
• 7:01
  Speaker 6: public side here? Would it just be based on name
• 7:05
  Speaker 6: recognition alone?
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: I mean, it makes no sense.
• 7:08
  Speaker 6: Both of these teams lost in the first round of
• 7:10
  Speaker 6: the playoffs last year. Utah is definitely the better team,
• 7:14
  Speaker 6: and they have the better record right now.
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 7:17
  Speaker 6: I don't see the Bruins being actually a public side here,
• 7:20
  Speaker 6: but that's what this market read is saying. 88% of
• 7:23
  Speaker 6: the tickets on them, 85% of the cash. You've got
• 7:27
  Speaker 6: to watch out for these public underdogs, man. Not something
• 7:30
  Speaker 6: I would want to do. That is still my lean
• 7:32
  Speaker 6: in that game, though, looking at how that sets up.
• 7:34
  Speaker 6: I would lean towards Boston, but that is definitely not
• 7:38
  Speaker 6: a game that's going to make the cut. Dallas at Buffalo.
• 7:42
  Speaker 6: Dallas is the better team here. They're sitting at 1-2,
• 7:45
  Speaker 6: Buffalo 2-1. So again, these records could be misleading here
• 7:49
  Speaker 6: because Dallas is a favorite on the road here. So
• 7:51
  Speaker 6: the oddsmakers, again, they're telling you Dallas is actually the
• 7:54
  Speaker 6: better team here. I think that was the case last year.
• 7:56
  Speaker 6: I think Buffalo overperformed. Dallas has not looked good to
• 8:00
  Speaker 6: start the season. There's no doubt about that. They got
• 8:04
  Speaker 6: shut out by St.
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: Louis at home. They lost to Nashville. That's not good.
• 8:08
  Speaker 6: But they were able to turn it around and beat
• 8:10
  Speaker 6: down San Jose. That's not a bad win for Dallas
• 8:13
  Speaker 6: at all. And that will give them confidence moving forward.
• 8:16
  Speaker 6: You get that monkey off your back.
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: You finally win a game.
• 8:19
  Speaker 6: Got a couple days off. Now you're starting a road trip.
• 8:22
  Speaker 6: This doesn't look like a bad spot to me for Dallas.
• 8:24
  Speaker 6: Even though they're coming off a big blowout win. It
• 8:27
  Speaker 6: wasn't against one of the elite teams. Even though I
• 8:30
  Speaker 6: think San Jose is.
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: A little bit sneaky.
• 8:31
  Speaker 6: I think they're better than people think. But I think
• 8:34
  Speaker 6: Dallas will have some momentum. Now Buffalo is coming off
• 8:37
  Speaker 6: the better-looking result. They just beat Minnesota in overtime on Tuesday.
• 8:42
  Speaker 6: They're 2-1, but their other games were against Columbus and Chicago,
• 8:46
  Speaker 6: and their win was against Chicago. We know Chicago's not good,
• 8:50
  Speaker 6: so Buffalo, not an impressive resume so far, although that
• 8:53
  Speaker 6: win over Minnesota was good. They're staying at home, but
• 8:58
  Speaker 6: they have a little bit less rest here, and they're
• 9:00
  Speaker 6: coming off a big win over Minnesota. I'm not going
• 9:02
  Speaker 6: to say they're going to overlook Dallas here, because I
• 9:04
  Speaker 6: don't think that's going to be the case, but I
• 9:07
  Speaker 6: think Dallas is the correct side in this one.
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: That's the way I would look here.
• 9:13
  Speaker 6: Dallas, 56% of the tickets on them, 59% of the cash.
• 9:16
  Speaker 6: Not easy to market read this. They're not really that
• 9:20
  Speaker 6: heavily of a public side. Like I said, I think
• 9:22
  Speaker 6: the public is not going to be as heavy just
• 9:25
  Speaker 6: because they're looking at the records and thinking, oh, I'm
• 9:27
  Speaker 6: getting Buffalo as a home underdog with a team with
• 9:30
  Speaker 6: a better record. Yeah, I would go against that sentiment
• 9:33
  Speaker 6: a little bit. I would lean Dallas in that one.
• 9:36
  Speaker 6: doesn't look like a bad spot for them, and they
• 9:37
  Speaker 6: are the better team. This next game is going to
• 9:40
  Speaker 6: be the only play I will have here, and I
• 9:42
  Speaker 6: know it's a team that does me wrong constantly, so
• 9:46
  Speaker 6: I hate them, and they have one of the worst
• 9:49
  Speaker 6: team names in sports, but yeah, we're going to do it.
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: We're going to take Nashville.
• 9:54
  Speaker 6: This is a split bet partially on the plus one
• 9:57
  Speaker 6: and a half puck line at minus 160. The other
• 9:58
  Speaker 6: partially of it at plus 150 uh i can show
• 10:02
  Speaker 6: you the way that the math works out on this
• 10:04
  Speaker 6: which is if you're trying to win 100 here 64
• 10:08
  Speaker 6: of it would go on the minus money part of
• 10:10
  Speaker 6: it which is the puck line in this case That
• 10:13
  Speaker 6: would be to win 40, and then that 40 would
• 10:15
  Speaker 6: go on the other side of it if you have
• 10:17
  Speaker 6: these exact prices. But you could use this calculator to
• 10:19
  Speaker 6: get the exact amounts. This is Johnny Ma. I mean,
• 10:23
  Speaker 6: it's a simple tool. I think he did it for baseball,
• 10:26
  Speaker 6: but he's some math.
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: Nerd, whatever. Although so am I, actually. People don't think that,
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: but that is true.
• 10:35
  Speaker 6: Anyway, with these numbers, this gets you a plus one
• 10:38
  Speaker 6: at minus 104, which is not a bad price. And
• 10:41
  Speaker 6: this will mean that if Nashville loses by exactly one,
• 10:44
  Speaker 6: you will push your bet.
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: So that is the way I'm doing it.
• 10:48
  Speaker 6: I know it's a bit risk-averse, but I'm saying I
• 10:52
  Speaker 6: do think Nashville has a decent shot to win the game.
• 10:54
  Speaker 6: I mean, if you wanted to play the money line,
• 10:57
  Speaker 6: you could do that too. I mean, obviously a decent
• 10:59
  Speaker 6: chunk of this bet is also the money line part
• 11:01
  Speaker 6: of it. But I like Nashville in this one, and
• 11:05
  Speaker 6: it's mainly because I think this is a hangover spot
• 11:07
  Speaker 6: for Montreal. Montreal's obviously the better team here. They're a
• 11:11
  Speaker 6: huge favorite, but maybe they're favored by too much here.
• 11:13
  Speaker 6: I know Montreal's pretty good. They're up and coming, but
• 11:17
  Speaker 6: they're coming off a huge game, man. Two days ago,
• 11:20
  Speaker 6: they played Carolina, and if you remember, I told you
• 11:24
  Speaker 6: that was a revenge game for Montreal. Carolina was the
• 11:27
  Speaker 6: team that eliminated Montreal last year in the conference finals,
• 11:31
  Speaker 6: so that was a huge game for Montreal overall. And
• 11:35
  Speaker 6: it looks good on the scoreboard. This is a close
• 11:37
  Speaker 6: game basically the whole way. It was a 5-4 game
• 11:40
  Speaker 6: leading towards the end of the game here. So Montreal
• 11:42
  Speaker 6: was right in that game, and then there was an
• 11:44
  Speaker 6: empty net near the end. Montreal played tough. They were
• 11:47
  Speaker 6: right in that game. They were tied in the second period.
• 11:50
  Speaker 6: It was a one-goal game at the end of the
• 11:53
  Speaker 6: second period.
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: Close game.
• 11:55
  Speaker 6: Montreal falls short. I think this is going to be
• 11:57
  Speaker 6: a flat spot for them after this. If you dig
• 11:59
  Speaker 6: into the box score here, Carolina outplayed Montreal pretty significantly here.
• 12:03
  Speaker 6: So it was a little bit misleading. that the game
• 12:05
  Speaker 6: was this close. Carolina had way more shots. They won
• 12:08
  Speaker 6: the physicality, uh, stats here as well.
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: So this game was pretty.
• 12:13
  Speaker 6: Much dominated by Carolina, even though it doesn't look like
• 12:16
  Speaker 6: it on the scoreboard. So Montreal wasn't as good as
• 12:19
  Speaker 6: they maybe looked in that game. And now Montreal is
• 12:22
  Speaker 6: facing an out of conference opponent here, I believe in Nashville.
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: Um, is that right? Is Nashville still, I don't even know.
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: Is Nashville back in the East? I don't even fucking know. No,
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: they're in the West. They're in the central division. Yeah. Um,
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: Really weird.
• 12:35
  Speaker 6: You'd think Nashville would be in the east. It makes
• 12:38
  Speaker 6: no sense, but whatever. Montreal might overlook them just because
• 12:42
  Speaker 6: they have eastern opponents surrounding this with Detroit, Buffalo, Washington
• 12:46
  Speaker 6: up next. I know Detroit's not off to a good start,
• 12:48
  Speaker 6: but this might be a game where Montreal just doesn't
• 12:51
  Speaker 6: show a lot of focus here. Nashville, I know they're
• 12:55
  Speaker 6: not that good, but they do have a win here
• 12:57
  Speaker 6: a couple games ago, and they're coming off not an
• 13:01
  Speaker 6: ugly game, but they did lose to Toronto last Good
• 13:04
  Speaker 6: thing for them, though, is they're staying in Canada here,
• 13:06
  Speaker 6: so it's not a bad travel spot for them. And
• 13:08
  Speaker 6: that was a letdown spot against Toronto, in a way,
• 13:10
  Speaker 6: because they'd beaten Dallas. Nashville did the game before that.
• 13:15
  Speaker 6: So Nashville was in a bad spot, and they still
• 13:19
  Speaker 6: almost beat Toronto. That game went into overtime. Now, I
• 13:22
  Speaker 6: don't love that they have only had one day off here,
• 13:24
  Speaker 6: but the last time they played before that was Saturday.
• 13:27
  Speaker 6: So this Nashville team is not really, you know, like
• 13:30
  Speaker 6: they haven't, had to play too many games in quick
• 13:32
  Speaker 6: succession here, so I'm not too concerned about that. Hopefully
• 13:36
  Speaker 6: Saros is back in net again. Not George Soros.
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: That would be way worse.
• 13:40
  Speaker 6: Saros is their goalie. He's actually, I still think he's
• 13:43
  Speaker 6: pretty good, but we'll see. Nashville, I mean, they haven't
• 13:47
  Speaker 6: been that bad on the goaltending side of things so
• 13:49
  Speaker 6: far this year. Their schedule's also been kind of difficult.
• 13:52
  Speaker 6: Their other loss was to Minnesota, so Nashville starting out
• 13:55
  Speaker 6: the season against Minnesota and Dallas, that's not that easy
• 13:58
  Speaker 6: to do, so hopefully nashville will get it uh for
• 14:02
  Speaker 6: us here in this one carolina's i have excuse me
• 14:04
  Speaker 6: uh carolina carolina's public too but montreal is a heavily
• 14:07
  Speaker 6: public side 93 of the tickets on them it's 67
• 14:11
  Speaker 6: of the cash on nashville so at least for now
• 14:13
  Speaker 6: the money indicating towards the nashville side of the way
• 14:16
  Speaker 6: i know we do have kind of a high total
• 14:18
  Speaker 6: here six and a half but the totals are all
• 14:20
  Speaker 6: i mean it's hockey man totals are all just between
• 14:24
  Speaker 6: five and a half and six and a half so
• 14:26
  Speaker 6: you know um it's still a low scoring game in general.
• 14:29
  Speaker 6: That's just how hockey plays. So we'll take the underdog here. Uh,
• 14:33
  Speaker 6: hopefully they at least push this bet. Although I don't
• 14:36
  Speaker 6: really want to go two days in a row, uh,
• 14:38
  Speaker 6: you know, just sitting here even cause the goal is
• 14:40
  Speaker 6: to win money.
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean, I think Nashville has the ability
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: to do it.
• 14:44
  Speaker 6: Uh, we're looking at minus one 80 or so on
• 14:46
  Speaker 6: Montreal as far as what the money line is there
• 14:48
  Speaker 6: on them. Uh, but yeah, Nashville will be my one
• 14:51
  Speaker 6: play there. I don't like it cause Nashville's fucked me
• 14:54
  Speaker 6: too many times recently, but, I'm going to try it
• 14:56
  Speaker 6: in this one because I don't like the spot for Montreal.
• 14:59
  Speaker 6: That's the best I have today, man. Minnesota at Tampa Bay.
• 15:03
  Speaker 6: This looks like a pretty good game. It is interesting
• 15:05
  Speaker 6: that Tampa Bay is fairly heavily favored here. Oddsmaker's telling
• 15:09
  Speaker 6: you that Minnesota... Even though they're good, the odds are
• 15:13
  Speaker 6: telling you Tampa Bay is a legit team here as well,
• 15:17
  Speaker 6: given that they're favored by this much against Minnesota here.
• 15:20
  Speaker 6: And they get a little bit for home ice, but
• 15:22
  Speaker 6: the odds are still telling you Tampa's the better of
• 15:24
  Speaker 6: the two teams, which I find interesting. I don't know
• 15:27
  Speaker 6: if that means there'll be a backup goalie in here
• 15:30
  Speaker 6: for Montreal. I'm not really sure. Tampa Bay, probably not.
• 15:33
  Speaker 6: They've used Vasilevsky in every game so far. He's a grinder,
• 15:37
  Speaker 6: and they have had the last couple days off, so
• 15:39
  Speaker 6: I expect they'll continue using him in this game Tampa,
• 15:44
  Speaker 6: they've won against Washington and Philadelphia after losing to the Rangers.
• 15:48
  Speaker 6: So Tampa has won their more difficult two matchups, basically,
• 15:51
  Speaker 6: unless you buy into the Rangers actually being good, which
• 15:54
  Speaker 6: I don't at this point.
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: I think Tampa will get up for this, though. I mean,
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: they've had a couple days off. They're sitting at home.
• 16:01
  Speaker 6: They only play the Islanders next. Minnesota's a good team,
• 16:04
  Speaker 6: so I don't see Tampa overlooking them. I'm not sure
• 16:06
  Speaker 6: Minnesota will overlook this game either.
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: Probably not.
• 16:10
  Speaker 6: Minnesota is coming off an overtime loss to Buffalo two
• 16:13
  Speaker 6: days ago in Buffalo. Now they have to travel down
• 16:15
  Speaker 6: to Florida here. They do play Florida next, but Florida,
• 16:19
  Speaker 6: we know they've been a little bit down just because
• 16:21
  Speaker 6: they didn't make the playoffs last year. So Tampa might
• 16:23
  Speaker 6: get a little bit more of a team's attention here.
• 16:26
  Speaker 6: Minnesota is coming off their first loss and sometimes that
• 16:29
  Speaker 6: will hang you over into the next game. So that's
• 16:32
  Speaker 6: a possibility here. Um, This is a tough game to
• 16:36
  Speaker 6: figure out, man, it is. Volstead is Minnesota's.
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: Primary goalie here.
• 16:43
  Speaker 6: I don't know if they're going to use a backup
• 16:44
  Speaker 6: goalie in this game or not because they did play
• 16:46
  Speaker 6: on Tuesday, so it's possible they do switch out and
• 16:49
  Speaker 6: use a different goalie in this one, and that could
• 16:52
  Speaker 6: be part of the reason why Tampa seems more heavily
• 16:55
  Speaker 6: favored than I expected them to be here.
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: The money is back in Minnesota, though.
• 16:59
  Speaker 6: Tampa's 63% of the tickets on them, 77% of the
• 17:02
  Speaker 6: cash on Minnesota. I'm kind of surprised public would be
• 17:05
  Speaker 6: on Tampa because they kind of go by what they
• 17:08
  Speaker 6: saw last and Minnesota had the better year last year.
• 17:11
  Speaker 6: So I don't really know about that. Tampa's minus one
• 17:14
  Speaker 6: 50 though, which again, that number to me, that number
• 17:18
  Speaker 6: seems surprisingly high. And when you see a number that
• 17:20
  Speaker 6: you don't expect like that, you usually want to listen
• 17:23
  Speaker 6: to what the odds makers are telling you because they
• 17:25
  Speaker 6: know more than you, you know what I mean? Uh,
• 17:27
  Speaker 6: even though the goal is to beat the books here, um,
• 17:30
  Speaker 6: The oddsmakers are still telling you something with that line.
• 17:33
  Speaker 6: They're telling you they think Tampa is the better team here.
• 17:36
  Speaker 6: So I don't know if I necessarily agree with Minnesota
• 17:40
  Speaker 6: on this one, man. I kind of don't think I do.
• 17:44
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 17:44
  Speaker 6: I think I would lean slightly towards Tampa in that game. Minnesota,
• 17:49
  Speaker 6: I don't know, coming off the somewhat more difficult game,
• 17:53
  Speaker 6: I guess if you want to call it that, plus
• 17:54
  Speaker 6: a possible hangover after taking their first loss, coming down
• 17:57
  Speaker 6: from Buffalo.
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 17:58
  Speaker 6: I don't have a whole lot on that game. Vancouver
• 18:01
  Speaker 6: at Carolina Carolina is going to be a massive favorite
• 18:03
  Speaker 6: here I mean you're talking about one of the best
• 18:05
  Speaker 6: teams in the league against one of the worst although
• 18:08
  Speaker 6: Vancouver actually hasn't played that bad so far so maybe
• 18:11
  Speaker 6: they're not the absolute worst team probably Calgary is looking
• 18:15
  Speaker 6: at how these teams have started Carolina they started off
• 18:18
  Speaker 6: with two losses but I mean an overtime loss to
• 18:21
  Speaker 6: Florida and then losing to Washington I told you both
• 18:23
  Speaker 6: those teams are good Those are two of the top
• 18:25
  Speaker 6: teams in the conference, so those are not horrible losses.
• 18:29
  Speaker 6: Carolina was able to flip it around and win two
• 18:31
  Speaker 6: road games against two playoff teams from last year. So, yeah,
• 18:34
  Speaker 6: I mean, Carolina's still a top team here, man. Busse
• 18:38
  Speaker 6: hasn't really been that good, though, in that Busse, whatever.
• 18:42
  Speaker 6: He had kind of a bad game against Montreal, even
• 18:45
  Speaker 6: though the offense picked it up. He hasn't been playing well,
• 18:48
  Speaker 6: so that is a little bit of a concern.
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: I believe.
• 18:52
  Speaker 6: He wasn't their primary goalie through their Stanley Cup run
• 18:55
  Speaker 6: last year. I believe they were using Anderson, where they
• 18:58
  Speaker 6: had to make that decision going into the playoffs, and
• 19:00
  Speaker 6: Anderson wound up being the guy. He was the much
• 19:02
  Speaker 6: more experienced goalie, but now Carolina no longer has him.
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: So Carolina, you know, the plan was Busse. He's a
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: young guy.
• 19:10
  Speaker 6: He's going to be the starter coming into this year.
• 19:12
  Speaker 6: That is the case, but he is kind of struggling
• 19:14
  Speaker 6: right now. So it is possible that Carolina allows Busse
• 19:19
  Speaker 6: enough goals here that Vancouver can hang around within whatever
• 19:22
  Speaker 6: the huge puck line is going to be on this game.
• 19:25
  Speaker 6: Carolina's returning home from a road trip as well. That
• 19:27
  Speaker 6: was only a quick two game road trip where they
• 19:30
  Speaker 6: started on Saturday and they stayed in the Eastern time zone,
• 19:34
  Speaker 6: but still, you know, a road trip returns.
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: Sometimes you do get a little bit distracted.
• 19:37
  Speaker 6: Vancouver's not exactly a team you're going to have full
• 19:40
  Speaker 6: focus on. And Carolina does start another road trip next.
• 19:44
  Speaker 6: So it's one of those spots where it's, one home
• 19:47
  Speaker 6: game sandwiched in between two road trips, although their next
• 19:49
  Speaker 6: game is only against Chicago, which is not that big
• 19:52
  Speaker 6: of a deal. Vancouver, they played well, dude. I don't
• 19:58
  Speaker 6: think they're a good team. I still think they're one
• 20:00
  Speaker 6: of the worst teams here, but they played some pretty
• 20:02
  Speaker 6: competitive matchups here. They beat Edmonton to start the season.
• 20:05
  Speaker 6: They had another fairly close game against Edmonton, Then when
• 20:08
  Speaker 6: I thought they were going to be in a hangover spot,
• 20:10
  Speaker 6: they easily beat Calgary who looks like they're the absolute
• 20:13
  Speaker 6: worst team in the league. Then they played Vegas pretty
• 20:16
  Speaker 6: tough in their last games. This Vancouver team, they're playing
• 20:19
  Speaker 6: competitively against good teams, man. They've had a bunch of
• 20:22
  Speaker 6: days off. This is the start of a road trip here.
• 20:25
  Speaker 6: Going East for a night game is not as difficult
• 20:28
  Speaker 6: for a West coast team like this. So I don't
• 20:30
  Speaker 6: think that spot is that bad. I think leaning towards
• 20:32
  Speaker 6: Vancouver is actually the way to look in this game. Um,
• 20:36
  Speaker 6: Carolina's just a massive favorite. I don't think Carolina's going
• 20:39
  Speaker 6: to lose the game, but you might be able to
• 20:42
  Speaker 6: get Vancouver on a plus two and a half puck
• 20:44
  Speaker 6: line at a decent price here to get them to
• 20:46
  Speaker 6: come within two goals of this Carolina team when Carolina's
• 20:50
  Speaker 6: been struggling with their goaltending and Vancouver's been playing up
• 20:54
  Speaker 6: to the competition here.
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I think Vancouver may be worth a look here.
• 21:00
  Speaker 6: Given that you're going to be able to probably get
• 21:02
  Speaker 6: plus 2.5 on the puck line at some reasonable price here.
• 21:06
  Speaker 6: Carolina's at minus 340-something here on the money line. It's
• 21:10
  Speaker 6: one of the heaviest money lines you'll see in hockey.
• 21:13
  Speaker 6: 91% of tickets, 71% of the cash on them, so
• 21:15
  Speaker 6: they're a public side with less of the money on them. Yeah,
• 21:20
  Speaker 6: I think the way to look is to take Vancouver
• 21:22
  Speaker 6: on the puck line in that one and take them
• 21:24
  Speaker 6: to keep that game within.
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: Probably, yeah, within two goals or something like that.
• 21:28
  Speaker 6: If you can't get two and a half at a
• 21:29
  Speaker 6: reasonable price, two also makes sense, and then it'll push
• 21:33
  Speaker 6: if they lose by two.
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: That's not bad, man.
• 21:35
  Speaker 6: I mean, you know how hard it is to win
• 21:37
  Speaker 6: by two goals in hockey?
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: It's not easy.
• 21:40
  Speaker 6: Even for the best team against the worst team, it's
• 21:42
  Speaker 6: not easy to win by more than two goals.
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean? So, all right.
• 21:48
  Speaker 6: Chicago at the New York Islanders. This is probably the
• 21:51
  Speaker 6: ugliest of all these games here. These are not good teams, man.
• 21:55
  Speaker 6: The Islanders are coming off an ugly loss to the Rangers,
• 21:58
  Speaker 6: who are off to a decent start here. Islanders, like
• 22:01
  Speaker 6: I said, not a good team, though. They've had one
• 22:04
  Speaker 6: day off now, but they're only staying in New York here.
• 22:07
  Speaker 6: That was at Madison Square Garden. Now they're just back
• 22:10
  Speaker 6: home in Queens, so not really a bad travel spot
• 22:13
  Speaker 6: for the Islanders here. Coming off kind of an ugly loss,
• 22:16
  Speaker 6: even though it was a rivalry game. They lost pretty
• 22:19
  Speaker 6: badly in that game. They do have Tampa next, so
• 22:22
  Speaker 6: it is a possible look ahead here. Chicago, easy to overlook,
• 22:25
  Speaker 6: but I don't know if the Islanders will necessarily overlook
• 22:27
  Speaker 6: them just because they've got to get a win here
• 22:30
  Speaker 6: because they're not playing well. Chicago, I think, is in
• 22:32
  Speaker 6: the worst spot here for sure. Chicago finally won a game.
• 22:36
  Speaker 6: That is good for them, breaking their losing streak where
• 22:39
  Speaker 6: they lost three road games to start the season. I mean,
• 22:42
  Speaker 6: their start to the season was not easy schedule-wise. I'll
• 22:46
  Speaker 6: tell you that. They had to play at Vegas, at Utah.
• 22:48
  Speaker 6: and then go all the way to Buffalo. That's not
• 22:50
  Speaker 6: easy to do. They lost all three of those games.
• 22:54
  Speaker 6: I still don't think Chicago's that good, but they return home.
• 22:57
  Speaker 6: They got the win over St.
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: Louis, but St.
• 22:58
  Speaker 6: Louis is a rival of theirs, so that was a
• 23:01
  Speaker 6: nice win for them, a big game for them. Now
• 23:03
  Speaker 6: they've got to go right back out on the road
• 23:05
  Speaker 6: for one game against the Islanders. If you're Chicago, how
• 23:09
  Speaker 6: up are you really going to get for this game?
• 23:11
  Speaker 6: You have to strangely travel all the way to New
• 23:14
  Speaker 6: York again with the Islanders basically staying in New York.
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: And then Chicago has Carolina on deck, the returning champs.
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: That's a bigger game.
• 23:23
  Speaker 6: So you can make the argument this is a sandwich
• 23:25
  Speaker 6: for Chicago, even though they did end their losing streak,
• 23:28
  Speaker 6: which should give them positive momentum. But I'm looking at
• 23:31
  Speaker 6: this as a sandwich for Chicago. I like the Islanders
• 23:34
  Speaker 6: in this game. That's the way I would look here.
• 23:37
  Speaker 6: The Islanders are favored. So the odds are telling you
• 23:40
  Speaker 6: the Islanders are the better team at minus 190. And
• 23:44
  Speaker 6: to me, you wouldn't think the public would want to
• 23:45
  Speaker 6: do that, even though Chicago looks kind of bad.
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: They're 1-3.
• 23:49
  Speaker 6: By the way, Chicago, of course, 0-3 on the road.
• 23:51
  Speaker 6: The Islanders are 1-0 at home so far. So the
• 23:55
  Speaker 6: home road splits favor the Islanders here. But the public
• 24:00
  Speaker 6: looks like they're still on the Islanders, even though you
• 24:02
  Speaker 6: think they wouldn't want to lay a price like this.
• 24:04
  Speaker 6: minus 190 in a game where both teams are bad.
• 24:07
  Speaker 6: 77% of the tickets are on the Islanders. 74% of
• 24:11
  Speaker 6: the cash on Chicago.
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: I just, I don't know.
• 24:14
  Speaker 6: I just don't agree with it. I would lean towards
• 24:16
  Speaker 6: the Islanders in that game, but maybe that's just me.
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: All right. And then what do we have?
• 24:23
  Speaker 6: We have baseball next, I guess. There's no WNBA today.
• 24:29
  Speaker 6: And both games were very close yesterday. Both teams that
• 24:32
  Speaker 6: were leading in the series won again. So, Golden State
• 24:35
  Speaker 6: looking pretty good in my bracket right now at least,
• 24:37
  Speaker 6: but that's the only thing that looks good about it
• 24:39
  Speaker 6: as far as I had them making the finals.
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: But let me see. Yeah, I was thinking I missed
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: one of these hockey games. I don't think I did, though.
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: I think I got all nine of them.
• 24:48
  Speaker 6: All right, baseball, we only have one series that has
• 24:52
  Speaker 6: yet to finish here as the Dodgers, Milwaukee, and Tampa
• 24:55
  Speaker 6: Bay all advanced yesterday. So Cleveland to Chicago is the
• 24:59
  Speaker 6: only series that is undecided here. White Sox now lead
• 25:03
  Speaker 6: two to one. I was correct about the over in
• 25:06
  Speaker 6: that game yesterday. So I had some correct leans in
• 25:09
  Speaker 6: some of these baseball games. My strongest lean was that
• 25:11
  Speaker 6: under and Dodgers Atlanta. We should have just done it, dude.
• 25:13
  Speaker 6: Every game in that series went under, um, should have
• 25:16
  Speaker 6: just done it again.
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: Um, I don't know.
• 25:19
  Speaker 6: I felt pretty good about it. I'm kind of pissed.
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: I didn't do it.
• 25:22
  Speaker 6: Uh, Cleveland won nine to three. So that game sailed
• 25:24
  Speaker 6: over the total, uh, It was a weird game, dude.
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: Very weird game. I don't know what the deal is
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: with Tanner Bybee.
• 25:31
  Speaker 6: I don't think Cleveland has used him in this series,
• 25:34
  Speaker 6: even though you'd think a guy with playoff experience like him,
• 25:36
  Speaker 6: they'd want him to be in the rotation. I don't
• 25:39
  Speaker 6: understand what Cleveland is doing. They went with basically a
• 25:41
  Speaker 6: bullpen game yesterday. Foster Griffin did pitch in the middle
• 25:45
  Speaker 6: of the game yesterday. He wound up being the winning
• 25:47
  Speaker 6: pitcher in the game yesterday. Chicago did use Davis Martin,
• 25:51
  Speaker 6: but they used him late in the game, and he
• 25:53
  Speaker 6: was not good. He's not good against Cleveland, so Yeah, Chicago,
• 25:57
  Speaker 6: I don't know, man. They might be in trouble here, honestly.
• 26:01
  Speaker 6: I think Cleveland's going to win this game today and
• 26:03
  Speaker 6: send this back to Cleveland for game five. This pitching matchup,
• 26:07
  Speaker 6: to me, looks like it definitely favors Cleveland here because
• 26:10
  Speaker 6: it's going to be Cleveland's number one starter, although, yes,
• 26:13
  Speaker 6: he is inexperienced, going up against White Sox bullpen game
• 26:17
  Speaker 6: again in this one.
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: This game's on TBS, TruTV.com.
• 26:22
  Speaker 6: You could possibly make another over-argument in this game too, though,
• 26:25
  Speaker 6: because I think once the starters are not going to
• 26:26
  Speaker 6: be in the game, the bullpens got pretty taxed yesterday.
• 26:30
  Speaker 6: I mean, both bullpens had a lot of usage in
• 26:32
  Speaker 6: that game yesterday, so I would not really want to
• 26:34
  Speaker 6: deal with the bullpens here, but Parker Messick should be
• 26:37
  Speaker 6: the best pitching you're going to see here, and Cleveland
• 26:40
  Speaker 6: still has the better.
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: Bullpen, by the way.
• 26:42
  Speaker 6: Out of the two bullpens. Although they're both not bad.
• 26:44
  Speaker 6: But Clevers was really good at the end of the season.
• 26:46
  Speaker 6: Parker Messick will get the start here. He had a
• 26:48
  Speaker 6: good season. He's still really young though. I believe this
• 26:51
  Speaker 6: was his rookie season. 2.56 ERA. 1.06 whip.
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: That's good.
• 26:56
  Speaker 6: He was good on the road as well. 2.22 road ERA.
• 27:00
  Speaker 6: So he was better on the road. He didn't pitch
• 27:02
  Speaker 6: that well in this series though. So that was his
• 27:04
  Speaker 6: playoff debut. And he didn't pitch that well. He did
• 27:08
  Speaker 6: not make it five innings.
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: He gave up a couple runs.
• 27:11
  Speaker 6: But you could argue he wasn't that bad because he
• 27:13
  Speaker 6: did have six strikeouts, two walks. He gave up a
• 27:15
  Speaker 6: home run, which whenever you give up a home run,
• 27:19
  Speaker 6: that's going to hurt your numbers a little bit. I
• 27:21
  Speaker 6: think he looked a little bit shaky out there, maybe
• 27:23
  Speaker 6: the nerves. But now that he has a game under
• 27:25
  Speaker 6: his belt, he knows what it's like. It's postseason. I
• 27:29
  Speaker 6: understand the pressure is still there. This is an elimination game.
• 27:32
  Speaker 6: Cleveland facing elimination here. But Messick having a playoff game
• 27:35
  Speaker 6: under his belt, He might be less nervous this time.
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: He might do better this time. You know what I mean?
• 27:41
  Speaker 6: It's almost like you got nothing to lose because you
• 27:43
  Speaker 6: were down 0-2 in the series. And Messick generally is
• 27:46
  Speaker 6: good against the White Sox. They have 107 at-bats against them,
• 27:50
  Speaker 6: 215 average, 668 OPS, 34-6.
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: Strikeout walk ratio. Those numbers are all good.
• 27:56
  Speaker 6: So I do think Messick should pitch well here. I
• 28:00
  Speaker 6: think he can make it five innings this time, man.
• 28:02
  Speaker 6: I mean, he should be able to. Chicago on the
• 28:05
  Speaker 6: other side, they're going with Hagan Smith. He's a young
• 28:07
  Speaker 6: guy too, even younger than Messick. Smith is actually good,
• 28:12
  Speaker 6: I think. He's got a 1.29 ERA, 0.96 whip.
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: He has a zero ERA at home this year.
• 28:19
  Speaker 6: So yeah, there's no doubt that he's been good, but
• 28:21
  Speaker 6: he's basically a bullpen arm right now. He's an opener
• 28:25
  Speaker 6: pretty much. So you're probably going to get about two
• 28:26
  Speaker 6: winnings out of him here, I would guess. He's pitched
• 28:29
  Speaker 6: in two of the other games in this series, including
• 28:32
  Speaker 6: pitching yesterday, by the way. And he gave up a
• 28:35
  Speaker 6: run yesterday, and he was kind of wild. So that's
• 28:38
  Speaker 6: a little bit concerning, man, that he's gone six and
• 28:40
  Speaker 6: a third innings in the playoffs so far, and he
• 28:43
  Speaker 6: has five walks in those innings and six strikeouts. The
• 28:47
  Speaker 6: strikeouts are pretty good, but the walks, yeah, that's not good, man.
• 28:51
  Speaker 6: He's been wild, and all five of them have come
• 28:53
  Speaker 6: in as two.
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: Appearances in this season.
• 28:55
  Speaker 6: Even though his first appearance, he didn't allow a hit.
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: But yeah, there's a little bit something off about Smith here.
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: He's a little bit wild, man.
• 29:02
  Speaker 6: So maybe the nerves are getting to him a little
• 29:05
  Speaker 6: bit too, because this is his first playoff experience. However,
• 29:08
  Speaker 6: he's already made three playoff appearances though. So you think
• 29:11
  Speaker 6: maybe the nerves would be a little bit less at
• 29:13
  Speaker 6: this point, but whatever it is, he is a little
• 29:15
  Speaker 6: bit wild here and that's not necessarily good. Obviously it's
• 29:19
  Speaker 6: not good. However, Cleveland has not been able to hit him.
• 29:23
  Speaker 6: They have 30 at-bats, and they only have three hits
• 29:25
  Speaker 6: off them, a 100 average, 541 OPS, but they have
• 29:28
  Speaker 6: a ton of walks against them, 11 walks. That walk
• 29:32
  Speaker 6: rate is enormous, along with 13 strikeouts. So we know,
• 29:37
  Speaker 6: we pretty much know what the deal is with Smith, right?
• 29:39
  Speaker 6: he's really hard to hit but he's wild that's the
• 29:42
  Speaker 6: deal and he's probably going to go about I would
• 29:46
  Speaker 6: guess he's going to go about two innings to open
• 29:48
  Speaker 6: this game I like Cleveland in this one I think
• 29:51
  Speaker 6: Cleveland you know you're going to get it Messick is
• 29:53
  Speaker 6: going to be in the game longer White Sox are
• 29:55
  Speaker 6: going to go to the bullpen first and the bullpen
• 29:57
  Speaker 6: is already kind of used up here Yeah, I think
• 30:00
  Speaker 6: Cleveland's the right side here. They're a little bit of
• 30:03
  Speaker 6: a favorite on the road here. They're about minus 120,
• 30:05
  Speaker 6: maybe a little bit less than that. 70% of the
• 30:07
  Speaker 6: tickets are on the White Sox. The public loves the
• 30:10
  Speaker 6: White Sox, man, because the one thing the White Sox
• 30:13
  Speaker 6: really have an advantage in is the hitting.
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: We know this.
• 30:15
  Speaker 6: Cleveland's hitting is awful, but I think they can get
• 30:19
  Speaker 6: this done. I think the pitching is so much better
• 30:22
  Speaker 6: for Cleveland in this one that I think they might
• 30:24
  Speaker 6: be able to get this done. 87% of the cash
• 30:26
  Speaker 6: on Cleveland. Yeah, I'm expecting Cleveland wins. This doesn't make
• 30:30
  Speaker 6: the cut for me, but I like Cleveland in this one,
• 30:34
  Speaker 6: and I still lean over in this game as well.
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: 7-7.5.
• 30:36
  Speaker 6: Of course, 7 is better if you can find a 7,
• 30:39
  Speaker 6: but it looks like it's pretty heavily juiced here. You
• 30:43
  Speaker 6: don't really want to have to lay the hook, though,
• 30:45
  Speaker 6: because 7 is a very key number as you have
• 30:47
  Speaker 6: to break a 3-3 tie. 71% of the tickets are
• 30:49
  Speaker 6: on the under, 66% of the cash on the under.
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: So the money....
• 30:55
  Speaker 6: Looks like it is kind of indicating towards the over,
• 30:57
  Speaker 6: although I would say be aware that in the divisional
• 31:00
  Speaker 6: series this year, I believe the only game to not
• 31:04
  Speaker 6: go under was Cleveland-Chicago yesterday. Every other divisional series game
• 31:09
  Speaker 6: has gone under the total. I'm pretty sure every single one,
• 31:13
  Speaker 6: including I believe Tampa-New York still got under. I think
• 31:16
  Speaker 6: that was a seven and a half. So every game
• 31:18
  Speaker 6: has gone under except Cleveland and Chicago yesterday. And the
• 31:21
  Speaker 6: wild card series had a lot of overs. although I
• 31:24
  Speaker 6: thought the Yankees ones were at least kind of misleading. But, yeah,
• 31:28
  Speaker 6: so just be aware of that. Like, if you do, like,
• 31:29
  Speaker 6: the over here, I kind of lean that way, but
• 31:33
  Speaker 6: I think the much better approach.
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: Is to just take Cleveland.
• 31:35
  Speaker 6: You've got a steady starter on the mound against a
• 31:37
  Speaker 6: bullpen game, essentially. And a team-facing elimination here, although the
• 31:42
  Speaker 6: White Sox don't want to have to go back to
• 31:43
  Speaker 6: Cleveland either, you know.
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: Keep all that in mind, but yeah, I lean Cleveland.
• 31:49
  Speaker 6: Cleveland is the strongest opinion in that game for sure,
• 31:51
  Speaker 6: but I would have a slight lean to the over
• 31:53
  Speaker 6: as well. But like I said, it worries me that
• 31:55
  Speaker 6: all these games except yesterday's have been going under.
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: So, yeah. All right, I'll be right back.
• 32:01
  Speaker 6: I'll take a break, and then it'll be football talk
• 32:04
  Speaker 6: for the rest of the show.
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: Give me a second.
• 32:11
  Speaker 6: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We were on
• 32:15
  Speaker 6: an 0-7 run over the last two days after tonight.
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: It was just complete bullshit. So that's how I'm going
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: to start off this show. Horrible Sunday, 1-5. I don't
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: even know what to tell you about that. I just
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: anything like this, man.
• 32:32
  Speaker 6: With the slump continuing, two straight losses, not a good
• 32:36
  Speaker 6: day at all, 0-4. I just have not had a
• 32:41
  Speaker 6: good season, man, with weekends.
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: Slump.
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: Then I'm on and the slump continues. I've reached a
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: new peak, actually. I'm going to burn my Bruins hat, man.
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: March 8th? Is that what it is? I don't even know.
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: It's March 9th, I think. Who even knows, man. I
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: don't know what day it is anymore. I don't even
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: know what day it is anymore, man. Back with you
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: after the worst day that I could possibly have. Back
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: with you as I always am.
• 33:12
  Speaker 6: Until I die, at least. 0-2 yesterday, and yesterday did
• 33:16
  Speaker 6: not go well for me. 0-5, the worst month that
• 33:21
  Speaker 6: I've ever had in my 18 years doing this.
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: even know what I should do at this point other
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: than potentially end it all.
• 33:43
  Speaker 4: All right.
• 33:45
  Speaker 6: College football, we have four games here, most of which
• 33:48
  Speaker 6: are kind of ugly. No real premier matchups here. Starting
• 33:53
  Speaker 6: at 7 p.m., all the games are going to be
• 33:55
  Speaker 6: played pretty much simultaneously, all on different TV networks. And remember,
• 33:59
  Speaker 6: one thing I talk about, these primetime games, and the
• 34:02
  Speaker 6: home teams have won out this week so far. The
• 34:04
  Speaker 6: home teams have covered all three games. The home teams
• 34:07
  Speaker 6: do have a little bit of an extra edge in
• 34:09
  Speaker 6: primetime games like this.
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: They get up.
• 34:11
  Speaker 6: For games like this it's a bigger deal you get
• 34:13
  Speaker 6: national spotlight games.
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: Basically um yeah the home team just tends.
• 34:18
  Speaker 6: To step it up the crowd gets a little bit
• 34:19
  Speaker 6: crazier and you know the tailgating gets a little bit
• 34:22
  Speaker 6: more insane and it's a night game so the you
• 34:25
  Speaker 6: know the students are all more drunk etc um Liberty, though,
• 34:31
  Speaker 6: they're kind of used to it. They get a lot
• 34:33
  Speaker 6: of games like this. I don't know that that really
• 34:35
  Speaker 6: is going to apply to Liberty here necessarily. Liberty's playing
• 34:38
  Speaker 6: Sam Houston here. This is a conference game. Liberty's off
• 34:41
  Speaker 6: to a good start. I did tell you I kind
• 34:44
  Speaker 6: of liked Liberty to have a bounce-back season here after
• 34:46
  Speaker 6: they underperformed last year. They've looked good so far, although
• 34:49
  Speaker 6: they haven't really faced that difficult of a schedule so far.
• 34:53
  Speaker 6: But they will be at home here against an inferior
• 34:56
  Speaker 6: Sam Houston team today. Liberty last played on Friday last week,
• 34:59
  Speaker 6: so they do have a short week here. Turning around,
• 35:03
  Speaker 6: coming in from Delaware. They easily beat Delaware, and now
• 35:06
  Speaker 6: they're coming back home here.
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: Liberty has Purdy as.
• 35:09
  Speaker 6: Their starter, not Brock Purdy. Also no relation because it's
• 35:13
  Speaker 6: spelled differently. But the thing to be aware of with Liberty, though,
• 35:16
  Speaker 6: is they mostly run the football.
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: That's what they do.
• 35:20
  Speaker 6: Liberty, yeah, they're a run-first attack. And that might be
• 35:23
  Speaker 6: good for them against Sam Houston because Sam Houston is
• 35:26
  Speaker 6: not a good rush defense.
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: And I talk about.
• 35:29
  Speaker 6: How favorites like Liberty here, if they're good at running
• 35:33
  Speaker 6: the football and they have a good matchup to do so,
• 35:35
  Speaker 6: which they do here.
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: They can actually extend the lead. You know what I mean?
• 35:39
  Speaker 6: Like sometimes that's bad for the, for the big underdog,
• 35:42
  Speaker 6: like the big underdog sometimes can't actually completely come back
• 35:45
  Speaker 6: and like backdoor the cover or whatever, because when a
• 35:48
  Speaker 6: team's doing what they already do well, which is Liberty
• 35:51
  Speaker 6: running the football, they can just, you know, they could
• 35:54
  Speaker 6: do that. And they're, you know, trying to eat up clock,
• 35:57
  Speaker 6: but they're also going to have the ability to score
• 35:59
  Speaker 6: more points because that's what they do really well.
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: So that might be a little bit of a problem.
• 36:03
  Speaker 6: If you're trying to take Sam Houston in this game,
• 36:06
  Speaker 6: which I, uh, don't think I would want to do
• 36:09
  Speaker 6: all the, maybe I do still lean that way. Um,
• 36:12
  Speaker 6: cause Liberty, you know, they may be a little bit
• 36:13
  Speaker 6: overvalued right now cause their start to the season has
• 36:16
  Speaker 6: been good. Sam Houston's one in three, which doesn't look good,
• 36:19
  Speaker 6: but Sam Houston's faced a more difficult schedule than Liberty. Uh,
• 36:22
  Speaker 6: they had to face Texas tech. So that alone pretty
• 36:25
  Speaker 6: much does it right there. That was their most recent game.
• 36:27
  Speaker 6: That was back on Saturday, the 26th. So Sam Houston
• 36:31
  Speaker 6: has extra rest here. Uh, so they basically had to buy, um,
• 36:37
  Speaker 6: Last week, I believe, is what that means. Wait, how
• 36:39
  Speaker 6: does that work out? 26. Yeah, I think that means
• 36:41
  Speaker 6: they basically had a bye here where they could have
• 36:44
  Speaker 6: played on Saturday, you know, the third or whatever it was,
• 36:47
  Speaker 6: and then had to turn around and play a quick
• 36:50
  Speaker 6: turnaround on Thursday. That is not the case with them.
• 36:54
  Speaker 6: So Liberty last played on Friday. So Liberty has less.
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: Than a week off.
• 36:58
  Speaker 6: Sam Houston has almost an extra week of rest here
• 37:02
  Speaker 6: over Liberty. And you know what I talk about is
• 37:04
  Speaker 6: when you go into that break on a bad note,
• 37:07
  Speaker 6: which Sam Houston did, they got blown out by Texas Tech,
• 37:10
  Speaker 6: which somewhat expected.
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: I mean, Texas Tech's obviously way better than the Herald.
• 37:14
  Speaker 6: That was an in-state little brother situation for Sam Houston.
• 37:19
  Speaker 6: But when you go into the break on a bad
• 37:21
  Speaker 6: note like that, A lot of times you fix shit
• 37:24
  Speaker 6: during the break and you come out with a better effort.
• 37:27
  Speaker 6: So Sam Houston does have some edges here with the
• 37:29
  Speaker 6: scheduling here that by might help them, you know, focus here.
• 37:33
  Speaker 6: They're definitely going to be focused on Liberty. Sam Houston
• 37:36
  Speaker 6: has not played a conference game yet. Sam Houston's more
• 37:39
  Speaker 6: of a passing attack, by the way. So, you know,
• 37:43
  Speaker 6: I mean, the better part of their offense will at
• 37:46
  Speaker 6: least maybe allow them to kind of hang around in
• 37:48
  Speaker 6: this game because they're going to be behind probably. but
• 37:51
  Speaker 6: maybe their passing attack can kind of keep them somehow
• 37:54
  Speaker 6: in this game here because they do throw the ball
• 37:56
  Speaker 6: better than they run it. But it is kind of
• 37:58
  Speaker 6: a one-dimensional offense, I think.
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: Kind of weird because Sam Houston was a better rushing
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: attack over the last couple of years.
• 38:06
  Speaker 6: Liberty has already played a conference game, by the way,
• 38:09
  Speaker 6: which was that previous game against Delaware. That was their
• 38:12
  Speaker 6: conference opener. This will be their home conference opener, but
• 38:15
  Speaker 6: this is Sam Houston's First conference game, conference opener. So
• 38:19
  Speaker 6: I'm going to lean Sam Houston here, but you're looking
• 38:22
  Speaker 6: at 13.5. I don't think it's ever been at 14.
• 38:24
  Speaker 6: 80% of the tickets, 88% of the.
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: Cash on Liberty.
• 38:28
  Speaker 6: Liberty's a public side, though, although it looks like they're
• 38:31
  Speaker 6: getting more of the money. But like I said, I'm
• 38:32
  Speaker 6: worried because Sam Houston cannot stop the run.
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: So Liberty.
• 38:37
  Speaker 6: May still be able to cover this thing by just
• 38:39
  Speaker 6: running the football. Even when they're trying to chew clock,
• 38:42
  Speaker 6: they might still be scoring because Sam Houston's defense is
• 38:45
  Speaker 6: so bad on that side of things. The total's fairly
• 38:49
  Speaker 6: high at 52 and a half. Money slightly indicating towards
• 38:52
  Speaker 6: the over, although the over's a little bit public too.
• 38:55
  Speaker 6: I think the over also does kind of make sense
• 38:57
  Speaker 6: in this game because, again, if Liberty has a lead
• 39:00
  Speaker 6: and they're trying to run the clock down, they're still
• 39:02
  Speaker 6: going to be doing what they do well, which is
• 39:04
  Speaker 6: running the football, like I said. So they can still
• 39:06
  Speaker 6: keep scoring while they're doing that. And now it looks
• 39:08
  Speaker 6: like more money is coming in on Liberty, by the way.
• 39:11
  Speaker 6: So the market read seems to kind of be pointing
• 39:14
  Speaker 6: in Liberty's direction, even though they are public. I slightly disagree.
• 39:18
  Speaker 6: Sam Houston has the rest edge at the very least here. But, again,
• 39:21
  Speaker 6: I don't like the matchup, really, for Sam Houston, so...
• 39:25
  Speaker 6: Don't love it. You like Sam Houston in that one?
• 39:30
  Speaker 6: That is definitely not my favorite of the games. I
• 39:32
  Speaker 6: have a slight lean that way, but yeah.
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: I would be worried that Liberty.
• 39:37
  Speaker 6: Might just be able to run the football and Sam
• 39:39
  Speaker 6: Houston just can't even do anything about it. That's how
• 39:41
  Speaker 6: bad Sam Houston's rushing defense is. Speaking of bad defenses,
• 39:46
  Speaker 6: CBS Sports, another game in the same conference, I think,
• 39:49
  Speaker 6: Conference USA, Missouri State and Western Kentucky. These defenses suck.
• 39:55
  Speaker 6: These are bad defenses, man, especially Western Kentucky. I think
• 40:00
  Speaker 6: Missouri State might be the overall better team here, but
• 40:03
  Speaker 6: I also don't like the spot that they're in. Really,
• 40:06
  Speaker 6: they're coming up a bigger game against SMU. Now, they've
• 40:09
  Speaker 6: had a bunch of time off. They actually had a
• 40:11
  Speaker 6: bye after that, so that kind of mitigates that a
• 40:13
  Speaker 6: little bit. Missouri State has actually faced a difficult schedule, too.
• 40:17
  Speaker 6: They faced Texas A & M and SMU, so Missouri
• 40:20
  Speaker 6: State's faced a more difficult schedule, I believe, out of
• 40:23
  Speaker 6: these two teams. I think Western Kentucky's faced one power
• 40:26
  Speaker 6: opponent as well, though. I'll look in a second, but yeah,
• 40:29
  Speaker 6: Missouri State's faced two ranked teams here. They played pretty well, again,
• 40:33
  Speaker 6: against SMU. They only lost by 10 points. although they
• 40:36
  Speaker 6: were losing that game by more than that, and they
• 40:37
  Speaker 6: scored in the final minute and a half to make
• 40:40
  Speaker 6: that a little bit more cosmetic, but it was a
• 40:42
  Speaker 6: close game in the fourth quarter, though. Early in the
• 40:45
  Speaker 6: fourth quarter, I think Missouri State was within three points
• 40:49
  Speaker 6: in that game, so they are still coming off a
• 40:50
  Speaker 6: big performance, and normally I'm going to look to fade
• 40:54
  Speaker 6: a team like that because when a team's coming off
• 40:56
  Speaker 6: a performance where they played really well as an underdog
• 41:00
  Speaker 6: and came close to a big underdog and came close
• 41:03
  Speaker 6: to taking that game to the wire, I usually don't
• 41:06
  Speaker 6: like that team in their next game. However, that's going
• 41:08
  Speaker 6: to be mitigated, like I said, to some degree by
• 41:10
  Speaker 6: the fact that Missouri State did have a bye after that.
• 41:13
  Speaker 6: So they went into the bye on a bad note, right?
• 41:15
  Speaker 6: They were 1-3 with two straight losses. So sometimes when
• 41:18
  Speaker 6: that's the case, you do fix some things, and it'll
• 41:20
  Speaker 6: help you get.
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: Over that loss. So I don't hate the spot for
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: Missouri State. I wouldn't like it. I'd like it less
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: for Missouri.
• 41:27
  Speaker 6: State if they didn't have a bye in here. I
• 41:30
  Speaker 6: think the bye helps them a little bit. Western Kentucky... Yeah, actually,
• 41:36
  Speaker 6: never mind. Western Kentucky's faced a difficult schedule, too. They
• 41:38
  Speaker 6: faced Georgia and Indiana. I mean, obviously, they were not
• 41:40
  Speaker 6: going to win those two games, but their resume still
• 41:43
  Speaker 6: looks pretty horrific, man. I mean, they were really bad
• 41:46
  Speaker 6: against Nevada and New Mexico State. However, what I will
• 41:51
  Speaker 6: say is all of their losses have come on the road.
• 41:54
  Speaker 6: And now they're at home here, and they have one
• 41:56
  Speaker 6: home game, which they won against.
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: Mercyhurst, although that's an FCS team.
• 41:59
  Speaker 6: But Western Kentucky, yeah, I think they're bad. I think
• 42:03
  Speaker 6: their defense is really bad, but I think that maybe they're,
• 42:06
  Speaker 6: maybe they look worse than they are right now because
• 42:09
  Speaker 6: those road games are not easy.
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: So I take that back. Western Kentucky has faced a
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: difficult schedule.
• 42:15
  Speaker 6: I just kind of forgot about those games because they
• 42:17
  Speaker 6: were so, like they just got absolutely annihilated by Georgia
• 42:21
  Speaker 6: and pretty much by Indiana too. Western Kentucky is coming
• 42:25
  Speaker 6: off a bad loss that we saw last Thursday against
• 42:27
  Speaker 6: New Mexico State.
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: We saw that.
• 42:29
  Speaker 6: That was a primetime game. I talked about how New
• 42:33
  Speaker 6: Mexico State was the better defense out of those two teams.
• 42:36
  Speaker 6: But if you look at what happened in this game,
• 42:38
  Speaker 6: it wasn't really what it looked like on the scoreboard.
• 42:40
  Speaker 6: Western Kentucky actually outgained New Mexico State, although you could
• 42:43
  Speaker 6: argue some of that was, well, they had to throw
• 42:45
  Speaker 6: the ball late in the game, you know what I mean,
• 42:47
  Speaker 6: to try to catch up.
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: But it was still a little bit misleading here.
• 42:50
  Speaker 6: New Mexico State had an interception return touchdown in the game.
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: Um, you know, it was a little misleading.
• 42:56
  Speaker 6: The stats tell you this game was close, uh, where
• 42:59
  Speaker 6: the scoreboard would not indicate that to you, but looking
• 43:02
  Speaker 6: at the stats, it was a much closer game than
• 43:05
  Speaker 6: the final score. Look, Western Kentucky definitely fucked themselves with penalties.
• 43:08
  Speaker 6: They had 11 penalties in the game. They're going to
• 43:10
  Speaker 6: have to clean that up here. They're on shorter rest, though.
• 43:14
  Speaker 6: Like I said, Missouri State's coming out of a bye.
• 43:16
  Speaker 6: Western Kentucky is not. They last played last Thursday, so
• 43:20
  Speaker 6: they're on exactly a week rest here, so normal rest
• 43:23
  Speaker 6: for Western Kentucky.
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: So what do we do with this game? I don't
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: even know what to tell you, man.
• 43:29
  Speaker 6: I do think Missouri State's the slightly better team, which
• 43:32
  Speaker 6: the oddsmakers are kind of telling you that. Western Kentucky's
• 43:34
  Speaker 6: a one-and-a-half-point favorite at home. The home team might get
• 43:37
  Speaker 6: a little bit extra of them. motivated for a game
• 43:41
  Speaker 6: like this that's on national TV at home. Although Western
• 43:44
  Speaker 6: Kentucky is also another team that they play a lot
• 43:46
  Speaker 6: of these primetime games. Missouri State might get a little
• 43:49
  Speaker 6: bit more up for a game like this because they're
• 43:52
  Speaker 6: pretty new to FBS. They only joined FBS I think
• 43:56
  Speaker 6: last year. So Missouri State has not played a lot
• 43:58
  Speaker 6: of these midweek primetime games. So they might get up
• 44:01
  Speaker 6: for a game like this more than Western Kentucky will
• 44:03
  Speaker 6: because Western Kentucky does this more often. although that means
• 44:07
  Speaker 6: Western Kentucky does have experience with games like this, including
• 44:12
  Speaker 6: last week, but that was a road game for them.
• 44:14
  Speaker 6: 53% of tickets, 56% of the cash in Western Kentucky.
• 44:18
  Speaker 6: They're about minus one and a half. There's a lot
• 44:20
  Speaker 6: going on in this game, man. Money seems to also indicate.
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: Towards the over.
• 44:24
  Speaker 6: It is a pretty high total of 56 and a half.
• 44:27
  Speaker 6: I understand the over. I mean, these teams are not
• 44:29
  Speaker 6: good on defense, so the over might make some sense
• 44:33
  Speaker 6: in that regard that maybe the defenses can't, stop these
• 44:37
  Speaker 6: offenses enough to keep this thing under. I mean, yeah,
• 44:41
  Speaker 6: you're looking at bad defenses, I will tell you that.
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: So, I don't know.
• 44:45
  Speaker 6: I mean, there's one game that is going to involve
• 44:48
  Speaker 6: offenses that can actually do damage that I haven't talked
• 44:51
  Speaker 6: about yet, and we know which game that is because
• 44:53
  Speaker 6: you can see what the totals are.
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: But yeah, this game, I don't know. This game, I
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: think I have the least.
• 44:59
  Speaker 6: Strong of an opinion I just don't really know what
• 45:01
  Speaker 6: to do with this game I think I would slightly
• 45:03
  Speaker 6: lean towards Western Kentucky though um the money's slightly indicating
• 45:06
  Speaker 6: that way even though I don't think they're the better
• 45:08
  Speaker 6: team Missouri State has a rest edge here but they're
• 45:11
  Speaker 6: still coming up that pretty big performance against SMU.
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: Western Kentucky I.
• 45:17
  Speaker 6: Think maybe they've looked a little bit worse than they
• 45:19
  Speaker 6: actually are like I said they were better than they
• 45:20
  Speaker 6: looked last week and Now that they finally have a
• 45:23
  Speaker 6: home game where almost all their games have been on
• 45:25
  Speaker 6: the road so far, they might be able to finally
• 45:28
  Speaker 6: get a win here.
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: So I think I'd lean that way. Um, my strongest
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: college football.
• 45:33
  Speaker 6: Opinion is in the ESPN game at seven 30, South
• 45:36
  Speaker 6: Florida at UTSA. I mean, right away you can look
• 45:39
  Speaker 6: at this and you can kind of see what's going
• 45:41
  Speaker 6: on here. You have two four and one teams yet.
• 45:43
  Speaker 6: And South Florida has more name recognition. Everybody kind of knows,
• 45:46
  Speaker 6: Oh yeah, South Florida, um, I mean, they're kind of
• 45:50
  Speaker 6: a bigger name. We saw them beat Boise last year.
• 45:53
  Speaker 6: I think they beat Florida last year, too.
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: And both teams are sitting at 4-1. But you're going
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: to look and see.
• 45:58
  Speaker 6: That the odds have UTSA as a seven-point favorite here.
• 46:03
  Speaker 6: I think the public's going to lean towards South Florida
• 46:05
  Speaker 6: in this one just because of the name recognition and think, oh,
• 46:07
  Speaker 6: both teams are 4-1. How am I getting seven points
• 46:11
  Speaker 6: with a South Florida team that we've seen compete against
• 46:14
  Speaker 6: some good programs? Well, I can tell you why. It's
• 46:17
  Speaker 6: because South Florida is not good this year. I know
• 46:20
  Speaker 6: that they're 4-1, and their defense has been all right,
• 46:23
  Speaker 6: but their offense has been quite bad. I mean, these
• 46:26
  Speaker 6: are some bad results here from South Florida, man. They
• 46:30
  Speaker 6: actually got outplayed by FIU. We saw FIU look pretty
• 46:33
  Speaker 6: good last. I think FIU was actually sneakily kind of good,
• 46:37
  Speaker 6: but South Florida got completely outplayed by them. Even though
• 46:40
  Speaker 6: they won the game 19-9, if you dig into that
• 46:42
  Speaker 6: box score, FIU completely outgained South Florida in that game.
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: It was a horrendous.
• 46:47
  Speaker 6: Performance for South Florida. They were able to win at Army.
• 46:50
  Speaker 6: That was their only good win of the season, really,
• 46:52
  Speaker 6: South Florida. Pretty impressive winning on the road at Army.
• 46:55
  Speaker 6: But besides that, they beat an FCS team.
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: Who cares?
• 46:58
  Speaker 6: They barely beat Bowling Green, which is disgusting. Bowling Green
• 47:02
  Speaker 6: is a horrendous team. That is a horrible game for
• 47:06
  Speaker 6: South Florida. And then last week, they lost as a
• 47:08
  Speaker 6: favorite to Temple. And now, I do talk about how
• 47:12
  Speaker 6: when a team... Lose this as a favorite, like South
• 47:15
  Speaker 6: Florida was like a six, six and a half point
• 47:16
  Speaker 6: favorite in that game. A lot of times they will
• 47:18
  Speaker 6: bounce back. So I do talk about that. That game
• 47:22
  Speaker 6: was on Saturday, by the way. So both of these
• 47:24
  Speaker 6: teams have very short rest here. Both these teams coming
• 47:27
  Speaker 6: up playing on Saturday. So I think the short rest
• 47:31
  Speaker 6: might kind of hurt the defenses here. So I would
• 47:33
  Speaker 6: not really want an under, even though this might look
• 47:35
  Speaker 6: like an under style of game here, especially because South
• 47:38
  Speaker 6: Florida is bad offensively and reasonably good defensively. but I
• 47:45
  Speaker 6: don't know if I would do that again because the
• 47:46
  Speaker 6: defenses are both on short rest here, so I don't
• 47:48
  Speaker 6: think I'd really want the under here. This is the
• 47:51
  Speaker 6: lowest total out of all the games in college football
• 47:54
  Speaker 6: here by a wide margin, so oddsmakers are telling you
• 47:57
  Speaker 6: they think this will be the lowest scoring of the game,
• 47:59
  Speaker 6: so they kind of have to because South Florida's offense
• 48:01
  Speaker 6: has been pathetic, but even though South Florida's coming off
• 48:04
  Speaker 6: a game where they didn't play well as a favorite,
• 48:06
  Speaker 6: they lost the tempo, I think South Florida's overrated, dude.
• 48:09
  Speaker 6: Like at 4-1-1, I don't think that's really who the
• 48:12
  Speaker 6: team is. I think they're pretty bad, really. And now
• 48:16
  Speaker 6: they're coming off their first loss, and the deeper into
• 48:18
  Speaker 6: the season you get without a loss, the harder it
• 48:21
  Speaker 6: is to overcome that loss. So a lot of times
• 48:23
  Speaker 6: when you take that first loss, you get hung over.
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: Into the next game.
• 48:26
  Speaker 6: They're going to have to go out on the road
• 48:28
  Speaker 6: to San Antonio for this game, which is going to be,
• 48:31
  Speaker 6: I believe, that'll be, I guess, the second time they're
• 48:36
  Speaker 6: traveling to a different time zone.
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: I don't know, is it Bowling Green Eastern? I forget,
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: or is it Central Time? I don't even remember.
• 48:43
  Speaker 6: But going to Texas for the first time this year,
• 48:46
  Speaker 6: maybe not that easy. UTSA, this is a big ESPN game, man,
• 48:51
  Speaker 6: and because it's an ESPN game, this is the only
• 48:54
  Speaker 6: one they're going to get all season, by the way,
• 48:55
  Speaker 6: I believe. UTSA, they're going to get up for this game, man. UTSA,
• 48:59
  Speaker 6: this is their biggest TV game of the season, at least.
• 49:02
  Speaker 6: They get to be on national TV, even though their
• 49:05
  Speaker 6: biggest game schedule-wise was against Texas. which they lost, but
• 49:09
  Speaker 6: that was UTSA's only loss. They've taken care of business otherwise. Now,
• 49:13
  Speaker 6: they didn't look good last time against Rice, but Rice
• 49:15
  Speaker 6: is an in-state little brother, man, and Rice, I think,
• 49:18
  Speaker 6: still runs a triple option. so I think UTSA kind
• 49:22
  Speaker 6: of had some issues here trying to figure out what
• 49:24
  Speaker 6: Rice was doing although Rice didn't exactly put up any
• 49:27
  Speaker 6: offense in this game But UTSA was a double-digit favorite
• 49:30
  Speaker 6: in this game.
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: You know what I talk about. Again, I'm going to
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: say it.
• 49:33
  Speaker 6: When you have a team that was a huge favorite
• 49:34
  Speaker 6: like this, and they were a bigger favorite than South
• 49:37
  Speaker 6: Florida was in their last game, you have a big
• 49:40
  Speaker 6: favorite like this that gets a scare, a lot of
• 49:43
  Speaker 6: times they're going to be better in the next game.
• 49:45
  Speaker 6: I think UTSA might have overlooked Rice, man, because Rice
• 49:49
  Speaker 6: is not good. Rice, I think, got up for this
• 49:51
  Speaker 6: game because they're the little brother of the two in
• 49:53
  Speaker 6: the state of Texas.
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: Rice is in Houston.
• 49:57
  Speaker 6: Rice, yeah, Rice got way up for this game, and
• 49:59
  Speaker 6: UTSA almost got picked off, man. They only lost by,
• 50:03
  Speaker 6: or excuse me, UTSA only won by two, and it
• 50:08
  Speaker 6: was a two-point game for almost the entirety.
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: Of the fourth quarter, so this is a close call, man.
• 50:12
  Speaker 6: UTSA did win the yardage battle by almost 100 yards, though,
• 50:16
  Speaker 6: so this game wasn't really what it looked like on
• 50:18
  Speaker 6: the scoreboard.
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: There was not a lot of offense.
• 50:20
  Speaker 6: In this game, but UTSA should have won more easily
• 50:23
  Speaker 6: than they did based on the stat sheet. I think
• 50:25
  Speaker 6: they had, they did lose the turnover battle, so maybe
• 50:28
  Speaker 6: they had some key turnovers in the game that kind
• 50:31
  Speaker 6: of helped swing the game towards Rice.
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: A bit, but I think UTSA was already looking ahead
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: to this game.
• 50:37
  Speaker 6: This is a bigger game for them, and I think
• 50:40
  Speaker 6: when you get a huge favorite like that that doesn't
• 50:42
  Speaker 6: play well, I think they bounce back typically in the
• 50:44
  Speaker 6: next game. That's what I think is going to happen
• 50:47
  Speaker 6: with UTSA here. I know they do play Navy next,
• 50:49
  Speaker 6: that's kind of a big game too, but These are
• 50:52
  Speaker 6: both conference games. We know how good South Florida's been
• 50:55
  Speaker 6: the last few years, really. So they're a program that
• 50:57
  Speaker 6: has a lot of name recognition. So as far as
• 51:00
  Speaker 6: UTSA's schedule so far, besides the Texas game, this is
• 51:03
  Speaker 6: the biggest game. And as far as name recognition is concerned,
• 51:07
  Speaker 6: this is their biggest game remaining on the schedule. And
• 51:11
  Speaker 6: not only is it an ESPN primetime game, but it
• 51:13
  Speaker 6: is UTSA's blackout game, which they do once a year,
• 51:17
  Speaker 6: and usually they reserve it for a TV game like this.
• 51:20
  Speaker 6: Sometimes they only have one. Sometimes they might not have any,
• 51:23
  Speaker 6: but you know what that means. It means there's going
• 51:25
  Speaker 6: to be extra drinking. The crowd's going to be crazy.
• 51:28
  Speaker 6: It's a night game, and it means all the students
• 51:30
  Speaker 6: are going to be, or all the crowd, basically, are
• 51:31
  Speaker 6: going to be dressed in black.
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: I don't know why it's black, because their logo, their
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: colors are not really black. They're like navy blue.
• 51:40
  Speaker 6: And whatever, but midnight blue, whatever the hell it is,
• 51:43
  Speaker 6: with an orange, but whatever. I think it's a blackout.
• 51:47
  Speaker 6: Maybe it's going to be a navy blue out, whatever
• 51:49
  Speaker 6: it is. That's always a huge game. That's the game
• 51:52
  Speaker 6: the crowd gets up for the most. It's an intimidating
• 51:55
  Speaker 6: environment for the road team. You know where I'm going
• 51:57
  Speaker 6: with this. I like UTSA, and I think this is
• 52:00
  Speaker 6: the best game out of all of these. This would
• 52:02
  Speaker 6: be my preference, would be to lay seven or six
• 52:05
  Speaker 6: and a half with UTSA.
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: If you can get a six and a half, that's
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: even better.
• 52:09
  Speaker 6: It looks like you can get seven with reduced juice
• 52:11
  Speaker 6: or six with extra juice.
• 52:14
  Speaker 2: If you can find a six, like right.
• 52:15
  Speaker 6: Now it's at minus 115 in a couple of books
• 52:17
  Speaker 6: on the six and a half. I would probably do that,
• 52:19
  Speaker 6: like lay the minus 115 on the minus 6.5. You
• 52:22
  Speaker 6: can get it below that key number 7. The total
• 52:25
  Speaker 6: has plummeted from 53.5 down to 49.5, so some real
• 52:29
  Speaker 6: money is coming on the under in this game, so
• 52:32
  Speaker 6: be aware of that. That makes it a little bit
• 52:34
  Speaker 6: more difficult for the favorite to cover. I don't necessarily
• 52:38
  Speaker 6: want to fade South Florida off of losing as a favorite,
• 52:41
  Speaker 6: but UTSA... Again, they're coming off a game where they
• 52:44
  Speaker 6: were an even bigger favorite, and they were really bad
• 52:46
  Speaker 6: in the game.
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: I think they're the better team.
• 52:48
  Speaker 6: I think the records are misleading looking at both teams
• 52:51
  Speaker 6: being 4-1.
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: Public is not coming in on.
• 52:53
  Speaker 6: UTSA to any crazy degree, 53% of tickets on them.
• 52:57
  Speaker 6: I think the real money knows that UTSA is the
• 52:59
  Speaker 6: better team here, though. That's what the oddsmakers are telling
• 53:02
  Speaker 6: you with the fact they're a touchdown favorite here, and
• 53:05
  Speaker 6: they're probably going to get about three for home field
• 53:07
  Speaker 6: just because it's going to be the blackout game, and
• 53:10
  Speaker 6: it's in the Alamo Dome.
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: It does get loud in there.
• 53:12
  Speaker 6: 67% of the cash on UTSA so yeah I like
• 53:16
  Speaker 6: UTSA in that one and usually they have a pretty
• 53:19
  Speaker 6: balanced offensive attack they're the better offense out of the
• 53:22
  Speaker 6: two teams there even though maybe South Florida is a
• 53:25
  Speaker 6: little bit better defensively and a lot of times I
• 53:28
  Speaker 6: do look for the better defense getting points but in
• 53:30
  Speaker 6: a game like that no I mean UTSA to me
• 53:33
  Speaker 6: looks like the right side there. Both teams have very
• 53:36
  Speaker 6: short rest, like I said. I'm pretty sure both teams
• 53:38
  Speaker 6: played on Saturday the 3rd, so both teams are on
• 53:42
  Speaker 6: very short rest here. It's like being in the NFL, yeah,
• 53:44
  Speaker 6: so there's no rest edge one way or the other.
• 53:47
  Speaker 6: UTSA has it easier, though, because they're only going from
• 53:49
  Speaker 6: Houston back to San Antonio, so their travel spot is
• 53:53
  Speaker 6: a little bit better. And then the final game is
• 53:55
  Speaker 6: ESPN 2 at 7.30 p.m., This is probably the most
• 54:00
  Speaker 6: fun game out of all of these.
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: If you want to watch a game with a lot
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: of scoring, this is the highest total.
• 54:05
  Speaker 6: South Alabama and Arkansas State, these offenses can both do
• 54:09
  Speaker 6: some things, especially South Alabama. South Alabama definitely has a
• 54:12
  Speaker 6: good offense, but they also don't have a good defense.
• 54:16
  Speaker 6: They're playing a bunch of high-scoring games here. They just
• 54:18
  Speaker 6: played another really high-scoring game on Saturday against a pretty
• 54:21
  Speaker 6: bad UL Monroe team. And the fact that Monroe put
• 54:24
  Speaker 6: up 35 against them, that's not a good sign, even
• 54:27
  Speaker 6: though South Alabama put up 52. South Alabama did play
• 54:31
  Speaker 6: well against Kentucky in their biggest game of the season,
• 54:34
  Speaker 6: South Alabama's biggest game. We had South Alabama as a
• 54:38
  Speaker 6: play on the show, and they fell short of the
• 54:40
  Speaker 6: number by one score, which really pissed me off. because
• 54:43
  Speaker 6: they were tied almost going into halftime in that game. Really,
• 54:47
  Speaker 6: really pissed me off. We should have had it with
• 54:49
  Speaker 6: South Alabama. Anyway, South Alabama, yeah, their defense isn't good,
• 54:56
  Speaker 6: so that's one thing. Giving up that many points to
• 54:57
  Speaker 6: you on Monroe, that's not a good sign. They're also
• 55:00
  Speaker 6: not good on the road. They're 0-2 on the road
• 55:03
  Speaker 6: so far. Granted, those are their two most difficult opponents, though.
• 55:06
  Speaker 6: Tulane and Kentucky, they're underdogs in both games. And they
• 55:10
  Speaker 6: did play fairly well in both games, so I'm not
• 55:12
  Speaker 6: going to read too much into them being 0-2 on
• 55:15
  Speaker 6: the road. Arkansas State is not as good as Tulane
• 55:18
  Speaker 6: or Kentucky, so at least there's that. For the Arkansas
• 55:22
  Speaker 6: State side, they're sitting at 2-3, whereas South Alabama is 3-2.
• 55:28
  Speaker 6: Arkansas State, you know, I mean, they faced a somewhat
• 55:32
  Speaker 6: difficult schedule as well. They had to play Memphis and
• 55:34
  Speaker 6: TCU on the road. They lost both those games. They
• 55:37
  Speaker 6: played pretty well against Memphis, not so much against TCU.
• 55:41
  Speaker 6: We lost in the game against Memphis. I thought Memphis
• 55:46
  Speaker 6: was in a bad spot after upsetting UNLV, but it
• 55:49
  Speaker 6: was Arkansas State's first game of the season.
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 55:52
  Speaker 6: They fell short in that game. Now, Arkansas State coming
• 55:55
  Speaker 6: off a kind of ugly-looking loss to Louisiana. I think
• 55:58
  Speaker 6: Louisiana was the favorite, though. Louisiana Lafayette, not Monroe. They
• 56:03
  Speaker 6: just called themselves Louisiana now, though. Yeah, that was a 4.5-point number.
• 56:07
  Speaker 6: Arkansas State snuck within the number in that game, so
• 56:10
  Speaker 6: they did cover in what was kind of a lower-scoring game. Now,
• 56:14
  Speaker 6: I think Arkansas State probably is the better defense over
• 56:16
  Speaker 6: South Alabama. Arkansas State throws the football. That's pretty much
• 56:21
  Speaker 6: what they do. They don't run the football that well.
• 56:24
  Speaker 6: They also played on Saturday, so I believe both teams
• 56:27
  Speaker 6: played on Saturday again. As far as the rest, these
• 56:31
  Speaker 6: teams don't really have rest here, so that is going
• 56:33
  Speaker 6: to help as far as if you like the over,
• 56:35
  Speaker 6: I think the lack of rest will help you because
• 56:37
  Speaker 6: it will hurt the defenses here. I think maybe that's
• 56:39
  Speaker 6: the right approach is to play this game over. I
• 56:42
  Speaker 6: don't think either defense is really good enough to slow
• 56:45
  Speaker 6: these offenses down that much.
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: I think both offenses are pretty capable.
• 56:48
  Speaker 6: I know Arkansas State didn't play well against Kennesaw, Kennesaw
• 56:52
  Speaker 6: has a pretty good defense, though. We saw it again
• 56:54
  Speaker 6: last night. They're able to slow games down and ugly
• 56:57
  Speaker 6: them up. South Alabama does not do that. South Alabama, yeah,
• 57:02
  Speaker 6: they're all offense, pretty much. Their defense is really not good.
• 57:05
  Speaker 6: So I think Arkansas State, even though their offense hasn't
• 57:08
  Speaker 6: looked good, I think they might be able to get
• 57:10
  Speaker 6: some points in this one as well. As far as
• 57:12
  Speaker 6: the side, the money is coming in on South Alabama.
• 57:15
  Speaker 6: It looks like the line moved from one to three
• 57:18
  Speaker 6: now on Arkansas State, so... The money initially said Arkansas State,
• 57:22
  Speaker 6: it looks like, to drive that number up, but now
• 57:24
  Speaker 6: 56% of tickets, 70% of the cash on South Alabama.
• 57:28
  Speaker 6: The money indicating on South Alabama, I don't know. I
• 57:33
  Speaker 6: don't know what to do with the side here. I
• 57:34
  Speaker 6: think South Alabama, you could argue they're the slightly better team,
• 57:38
  Speaker 6: although I think they're the worst of the two defenses here.
• 57:41
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 57:42
  Speaker 6: I still think you have two bad defenses. We see
• 57:44
  Speaker 6: money coming in on the under right now. 51% of tickets,
• 57:47
  Speaker 6: 69% of the cash on the under, but the total
• 57:48
  Speaker 6: did go up from 57, which is a key number,
• 57:51
  Speaker 6: by the way, up to 59.5, basically, or 60. So
• 57:56
  Speaker 6: you've lost that one key number of 57, but I
• 57:58
  Speaker 6: don't know. I still kind of lean over in this game.
• 58:01
  Speaker 6: Whenever you see a total this high, usually you want
• 58:03
  Speaker 6: to be looking towards the over. You have teams on
• 58:05
  Speaker 6: short rest, which I think makes the defenses worse, and
• 58:07
  Speaker 6: I think the defenses are already.
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: Not that good. So I don't know. To me, it
• 58:10
  Speaker 2: looks like there's going to be scoring in that game.
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: And then as far as the side comes down to.
• 58:16
  Speaker 6: I do think Arkansas State might be the better of
• 58:17
  Speaker 6: the two defenses, but South Alabama's the better offense, and
• 58:22
  Speaker 6: Arkansas State may have that little bit of extra home
• 58:24
  Speaker 6: advantage here because it's a primetime, not isolated game, but
• 58:29
  Speaker 6: it's a small card here, small board where there are
• 58:32
  Speaker 6: only a few games, so they get the TV billing.
• 58:35
  Speaker 6: They basically get the number two TV billing tonight on ESPN2,
• 58:38
  Speaker 6: so Arkansas State might be excited about that.
• 58:42
  Speaker 2: That's what I got.
• 58:43
  Speaker 6: I think the best college football play is UTSA, though,
• 58:46
  Speaker 6: laying the points. Then we have this disgusting NFL game
• 58:50
  Speaker 6: tonight that I do not want anything to do with,
• 58:53
  Speaker 6: which is Tampa Bay at Dallas.
• 58:55
  Speaker 2: This is bad. This is really bad. Yeah, I mean, Dallas,
• 59:00
  Speaker 2: their defense is really, really bad. So that's one thing.
• 59:04
  Speaker 6: Maybe that's going to help out Tampa Bay a little bit.
• 59:06
  Speaker 6: I know Tampa Bay's had a really bad season, their
• 59:09
  Speaker 6: own four here. They're not as bad as it appears, though.
• 59:13
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean?
• 59:14
  Speaker 6: They've lost every game by one score.
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: They haven't lost any game by more than seven. And
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: that was a.
• 59:18
  Speaker 6: Bullshit result against the Vikings where the Vikings had a
• 59:22
  Speaker 6: punt return touchdown.
• 59:23
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay outgained them in that game.
• 59:25
  Speaker 6: Tampa Bay's not as bad as they look, and of course,
• 59:28
  Speaker 6: we know Baker Mayfield is out now, and that is
• 59:31
  Speaker 6: moving this line probably further towards the Cowboys than it
• 59:34
  Speaker 6: should be. As Tampa Bay, of course, they have Jalen Daniels, undrafted,
• 59:39
  Speaker 6: you guys corrected me, undrafted rookie.
• 59:42
  Speaker 2: Jalen Daniels is Tampa Bay's quarterback now.
• 59:45
  Speaker 6: He played last week, and he wasn't that bad, even
• 59:48
  Speaker 6: though Tampa Bay didn't do a ton offensively. Green Bay's
• 59:51
  Speaker 6: a pretty good defense still, though. Green Bay's offense has
• 59:54
  Speaker 6: been their major issue, but this is going to be
• 59:56
  Speaker 6: a big step down as far as the defense. The
• 59:58
  Speaker 6: Cowboys' defense is way worse than Green Bay's, although, yes,
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 6: the Cowboys' offense is way better, but... The good thing
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 6: for Tampa is their defense is better than the Cowboys' defense.
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 6: Tampa Bay still has an intact defense here, so their
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 6: defense might be able to slow the Cowboys down enough
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 6: that Tampa Bay's offense might be able to move the
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 6: ball enough against this Cowboys' bad defense that Tampa might
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 6: be able to come within this number here.
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 2: So I'm going to be leaning.
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 6: Tampa here, even though I usually do not like a
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 6: team coming off a good performance as an underdog. Although
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 6: both teams really are. They're both kind of similar teams.
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 6: underdog point range. Tampa was like a four-point dog against
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 6: Green Bay. Cowboys were like a three-point dog last week
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 6: against Houston. Tampa Bay, yes, they did play fairly well.
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 6: They came close against the Packers, and I know that
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 6: was their injured player theory game, and that was the
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 6: thing that pushed me towards picking Tampa in my pools,
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 6: even though I did not have much, you know, I
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 6: did not put much weight into that game as far
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 6: as what I did last week, but Yeah, it was
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 6: the injured player theory, and I always talk about how
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 6: the team steps up their level of play when that
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 6: first game, the injured player is in effect, right?
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: Like the first game that the new quarterback is in there.
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: They stepped it up, for sure.
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 6: At least their defense definitely played pretty well. That was
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 6: a bad Packer offense, for sure. Now, normally I would
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 6: say that team's going to suffer a letdown in the
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 6: next game after that, after they play well. in the
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 6: first game of the injured player, but I don't necessarily
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 6: think so here because Tampa lost that game.
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: They're 0-4, so how can you have a letdown? You
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: can't afford it. You know what I mean?
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 6: Like, Tampa, if they have any semblance of anything here,
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 6: I know when you're 0-4, you might feel like you're
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 6: a dead team at this point, but I don't know, man.
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 2: I don't think the team's going to bail on their
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 2: young quarterback. You know what I mean?
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 6: I think having the young quarterback in there might actually
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 6: help them remain focused here.
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 2: And it's a primetime game against the Cowboys.
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 6: They're probably not going to overlook that because they're still
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 6: the Dallas Cowboys. They're still America's team and whatever. As
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 6: far as the Cowboys are concerned, nice win for them
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 6: over the Texans, man. That was a crazy back-and-forth game.
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 6: I think that game, I thought the game would mean
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 6: more to Houston because Houston's the little brother of kind
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 6: of like the bastard child in the state of Texas
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 6: because they're the expansion team. Dallas still won the game, though,
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 6: and they beat down Little Brother. And, yeah, Dallas has
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 6: looked good in their last two games against the Ravens
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 6: and the Texans. I still don't think the Texans are
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 6: as bad as people think, but, yeah, Dallas has looked
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 6: pretty good. And the thing about Dallas is the public's
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 6: going to want them because they put up a ton
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 6: of offense, right? Dallas puts up a ton of offense,
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 6: but Tampa is a decent defense. Texans are supposed to
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 6: be a good defense, but they have not been this year.
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 6: Their defense has not been good. So I think Tampa
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 6: might be able to slow Dallas down a little bit
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 6: more here. Now, I know this is a quick turnaround time,
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 6: and I always have to talk about it on a
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 6: Thursday night. The home team usually has an advantage, especially
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 6: when the road team is not used to playing in
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 6: their place, and that is the case here. Tampa, not
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 6: as used to playing in Dallas, so that's going to
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 6: be a little bit of an extra edge to Dallas.
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 6: having to prepare with less time to prepare. Dallas is
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 6: staying in Texas, by the way, because they were just
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 6: in Houston. The travel spot looks better for Dallas here.
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 6: The shorter prep time is going to be a little
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 6: bit easier for Dallas because they're staying in Texas. They
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 6: get to play at home here. Tampa's got to travel.
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 6: They're going to go out on the road here, although
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 6: they're only coming in from Florida, which isn't too bad.
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 6: But Dallas, they do have Green Bay next, and then Philadelphia.
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 6: So Dallas might be looking ahead, and that is another
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 6: primetime game. That's a Monday night game, I'm pretty sure,
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 6: against Green Bay. So Dallas, they might be looking ahead
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 6: to that because it's still the Green Bay Packers, you
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 6: know what I mean? I think it is going to
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 6: be easy for Dallas to overlook an 0-4 Tampa Bay
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 6: team here. So that's what it comes down to for me,
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 6: even though I don't usually like these road teams on
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 6: Thursday night, and hopefully my Thursday night gauge is still
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 6: good enough here but also I think this line is
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 6: just way too high like Dallas is an eight and
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 6: a half point favorite it's gone down from nine and
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 6: a half I'm gonna lean towards taking the points of
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 6: Tampa doing I mean you know that this number is
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 6: skewed just because of Mayfield being out but Mayfield was
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 6: not playing well like I don't think Mayfield is that
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 6: good dude he had like one really good season in
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 6: 2024 but if you look at his numbers in his
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 6: career otherwise he's He's really not good, and I've always
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 6: kind of been saying that. I'm not a Mayfield fan.
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 6: I mean, I think he's an ass, but I just
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 6: don't think he's as good as people think.
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 2: So even though, yeah, he's better than.
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 6: Daniels, but still, Jalen Daniels, but still, I don't think
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 6: the drop-off is enough to warrant this. Like, if Baker
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 6: Mayfield was in this game, I'm pretty sure Dallas would
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 6: be like a four-point favorite, and you're telling me that
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 6: they're going to be like an eight-and-a-half-point favorite now because
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 6: of this quarterback drop-off? I don't really think that much
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 6: of a drop-off is warranted, Uh, plus again, Tampa's played
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 6: competitively in every game this year. So in fact, Dallas
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 6: being an eight and a half point favorite, what did
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 6: I already say? Tampa has not lost any game by
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 6: more than seven this year. So, um, Tampa's covered, uh,
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 6: this number in every one of their games. And I know, yes,
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 6: Dallas has a very intimidating offense.
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 2: I get it.
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 6: I have a couple other players, uh, on my fantasy team.
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 6: We'll see if I really want to play them because
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 6: you know how sometimes Thursday night ruins fantasy players. I
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 6: have Pickens and, uh, Williams. I think I'm almost definitely
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 6: going to have to play Williams, though, just because he
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 6: gets such a bulk workload. And, you know, there's a
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 6: decent chance he's going to be getting into the end
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 6: zone and whatever.
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 2: So Pickens, I'm on the fence. The white Pickens fence,
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 2: although he's a black guy. I don't know.
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 6: I might have Pickens on my bench this week, though,
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 6: because I have a glut of running backs right now.
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 6: So One of my running backs is going to wind
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 6: up in my flex spot most likely, and then it
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 6: comes down to which wide receivers I want to play
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 6: in my fantasy lineup. Anyway, and I'm 4-0. I'd love
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 6: to continue being undefeated. I'm the only undefeated team left
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 6: in my league, ultra-competitive league. I was the only undefeated
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 6: team at 3-0, actually. That's how competitive my– every team
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 6: was like 2-1 or 1-2 pretty much. I think there
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 6: was only one team that was 0-3. Anyway. Whatever, you
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 6: don't want to hear me talk about it, or maybe
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 6: you do. I don't know, talk about fantasy. 71% of tickets,
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 6: 85% of the cash on Dallas. So the money is
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 6: indicating on Dallas right now, but I lean the other way.
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 6: I lean towards fading the public. I lean towards Tampa
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 6: on this one.
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 2: I don't love it.
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 6: It's definitely not going to make my card or make
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 6: my contest entry or anything like that, I don't think,
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 6: even though I don't like the board this week. But
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 6: I'm going to have at least two plays, possibly three
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 6: this week. There are a few games that I do like,
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 6: so we'll get around to that when we do. I
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 6: don't think we're going to lose any of the key
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 6: numbers on those, although maybe. I mean, yeah, I don't
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 6: think we will, so we'll see. I don't know if
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 6: I need to shout them out yet. If everybody wants
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 6: to just copy what I'm doing, I don't know. And
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 6: then I probably do still lean over in this game.
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 6: The total's gone up a little bit to 48.5 from 47.5.
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 6: It has not gone through any real key number here.
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 6: 78% of tickets, 87% of cash on the over. I mean,
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 6: Dallas is just almost an automatic over.
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean?
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 6: Just because their offense is good and their defense is ass.
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 6: So it's like Dal-ass. Dallas, like, they're such an over
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 6: style of team.
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean?
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 6: So if Tampa Bay is able to move the ball
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 6: against Dallas' offense, the over probably does make sense here.
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 6: Although the total's not as high as you usually get
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 6: in a Dallas game, and that's because Tampa Bay's offense.
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 2: Looks a little bit putrid, and.
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 6: Maybe the total might be a little bit too low.
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean?
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 6: It might be skewed a little bit low because of
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 6: Mayfield not being in there. So again, that's a number
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 6: that might be a little bit of an overreaction to
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 6: the injury. Maybe that total's a little bit of an overreaction.
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 6: So probably the over would be another lean in that
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 6: game for me, but yeah, I don't want to touch it.
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 2: That's going to do it. We only have one play today.
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 6: It is an ugly hockey game with the Nashville Predators,
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 6: the Sex Offenders. Plus, it's partially on the plus one
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 6: net puck line and partially on the money line right there.
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 2: The split bet, I think it was, what was it?
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 6: It was about 60% on the puck line part of it.
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 6: I forget, on the minus part of it. I forget
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 6: exactly what it was. Something close to that. That's the
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 6: only play. Learn to tote on Twitter. Learn to tote
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 6: on Instagram.
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 2: Like, subscribe to the channel here.
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 6: You'll get notified when I go live or we have
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 6: the late night football content that I always do. Listen
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 6: on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker. Hopefully we get another Friday,
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 6: Saturday spike like we have been.
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 2: The spike seems to.
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 6: Come before the college football stuff for me comes out
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 6: and not for the NFL, which doesn't make any sense,
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 6: but who knows what's going on with that.
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 2: Two weeks in a row it would happen.
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 6: Hopefully it continues. Got to get these numbers. These are
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 6: rookie numbers, man. We got to get these numbers up.
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 6: I've been doing this show for too long, but whatever. Uh,
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 6: I'm mad that I skipped the board yesterday. Cause we
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 6: would have been two and oh, basically like my favorite
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 6: two plays, both one, if I had done it that
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 6: way yesterday, I'm still pissed.
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: Sometimes that happens, man.
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 6: If you're a handicapper and you're you know good and
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 6: you know what you're doing you're gonna have games that
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 6: don't make your card that win you know what I
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 6: mean you're gonna have a lot of them and you're
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 6: going to have games that do that lose, a lot
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 6: of them. That's just the way that it is. You
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 6: just need to win enough more than you lose to cover.
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 6: I think I'm running whatever this is over the last
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 6: 186 days. That's what, 56% maybe, something like that. That's
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 6: good enough to profit. What else do we have here?
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 6: Even though I know some of those were slightly juiced favorites,
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 6: but some of them were also underdogs to somewhat of
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 6: an extent, so it kind of evens out.
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 2: What else was I going to say?
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 6: Oh, covered in uke on YouTube. I did upload my
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 6: last couple of uke covers there. I'm doing some Halloween-themed
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 6: stuff for the month. I'll probably get a few of
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 6: those out.
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 2: We'll see.
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 6: Try not to repeat stuff I already did, but I
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 6: don't know. Patreon.com slash LearnToTote if you want to support
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 6: me there. Losercast every Tuesday night. I believe that is it.
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 6: Dirty Sock, thanks for hanging out. Peace.
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 3: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone. Let
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 3: somebody answer, let somebody know. You do not have to
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 3: lose this round alone. Hold on, hold on, not tonight.
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 3: Not now Hold on, hold on Let me pull you
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 3: out That bad luck fights hard But it don't get
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 3: the crown Hold on, hold on Stay with me now
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on You're still here now guitar solo