Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL 2020 Betting Preview, AFC Edition

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NFL 2020 Betting Preview, AFC Edition · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Melman, and today, as we did the
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: week before last, we have Chris Raybon and Stucky Mixed Stucky,
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: our NFL experts who co host our award winning That
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: is True, award winning Action Network podcast. Last week they
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: joined and we went deep on the NFC. Today we
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: are breaking down the a f C Division odds conference
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: odds Super Bowl odds. This is also a reminder. Two
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: weeks ago when they were on, we asked fans to
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: rate and review the podcast. Those who did and used
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: the winning phrase I need a six pack, which is
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: in honor of my favorite podcast segment when Stucky and
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: Raybon go through their six favorite pets of the week.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: Anyone who used I need a six pack in their
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: review would be eligible to in a free Action Network hoodie,
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: loads and loads of rive us. We've been giving stuff
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: away NonStop, so thank you for all that. Later in
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: the show we will reveal the winner. Reminder reminder, this
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: week we are doing another phrase that pays go ready
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: to review the podcast. Using this phrase, you guys are
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: gonna love this. The dynamic duo Raybon and Stucky, the
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: dynamic duo Raybon and Stucky. That's because these two are
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: like the superheroes of betting. Yeah, yeah, Stuck. I mean,
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: I'm glad like that we didn't have to come up
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: with this because I don't think we've ever called ourselves that.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: That would be so awkward, the superheroes of betting. Please,
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: if we choose your review, you will win a free
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  Speaker 1: Action Network. COULDI go listen to all the Action Network
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: podcasts Golf Jason Sober and Peter Jennings, The DFS Pod
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: with Raybon, Shaun Corner, Matthew Friedman. Ah, here we go boys,
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: Raybon and Stucky. How you guys doing. I was on
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: vacation last week, so I didn't get to do this
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: with you last week and I missed you. Feel good
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: like a half dynamic duo feeling productive. I mean, it's
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: been busy as hell of NFL stuff, college football stuff,
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: tennis stuff, baseball stuff. Everything that I do is back.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: So it's uh, certainly a slammed time of the year
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: with a slam going on right now. And somehow and somehow,
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: your hair has never looked better. If people could see this,
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: and I hope people go check out a video from
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: any one of our Twitter feeds. Stucky's hair is no joke.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: Ten feet tall right now, just for you, I had
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: to look good for the favorites. I appreciate that. Guys.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: Last week we talked about our NFC favorites in each
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: division and then our favorite to win the conference and
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: get to the super Bowl. So this week I want
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: to run it back for the a f C. So
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: first first, let's do the main thing. The main thing,
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: Number one, the a f C North. Give me your
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: a f C North pick, Stucky. I'm gonna want you
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: to respond. It's tough because you have the the Ravens
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: and they're so good, and you look at the rest
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: of that division and I think the only pick for
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: me is the Steelers. And by the way, that's the
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: first super Bowl future that I bet this year, so
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: you know that's the That's the team I'm gonna go with.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: And the reason is anytime you have a big favorite
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: like that, there's usually gonna be some value in the
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: division somewhere. Every report out of camp from the Browns
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: has been pretty negative, which worries me because I thought
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: Stefanski is a pretty good higher for them. The Bengals,
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: I think as much as I like Joe Burrow to
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: one that they're still about a year a couple of
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: years away. So it's really a Steelers with that top
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: three defense, defense in off d v O A, and
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: offense in the past and run. Uh. If anyone who's
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: gonna give the Ravels a run for their money, it's
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: gonna be them. And Big Ban is back. So they
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: could win ugly. Um, they could win with offense, they
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: can win with defense. Give me the Steelers at plus
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: three fifty to win the a f C North, all right,
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: So right now, let me just run it down right now.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: According to our friends at Draft Kings, the Ravens are
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: minus to the Steelers are plus three fifty, the Browns
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: are plus four fifty, and the Bengals are stuck. Let's
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: see your response, the Baltimore Ravens fan from Philadelphia. Give
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: us your answer. Yeah, I mean, I don't disagree necessarily
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: with the I don't think there's much value in the Ravens.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: I mean I do think that they're gonna win the division.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: I have them them in the Chiefs and we'll get
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: to the Chiefs. So the two highest rated teams in
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: the NFL by a wide margin. I mean, I think
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: that there's some aggression in the forty Niners, you know,
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: in the Saints and the Cowboys. That's kind of like
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: that next tier. But I have the the Ravens and
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs almost I think a full field goal over
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: on a neutral field over the rest of the NFL.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: So they're clearly they're the elite teams NFL. And obviously
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: you have to have Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes stay healthy.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: The Ravens are just a tad below the Chiefs nuts
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: because Earl Thomas you do have to replace him at safety.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: You know, he was kind of getting up there in age,
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: was having trouble tackling. But you know they lost Marshal
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: Yanda Hall of Fame guard. Okay, what's the interior of
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: the offensive line gonna look like? But they beefed up
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: their defensive line. They drafted linebackers, and you know they're
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: gonna get Tavon Young back in the slot and allows
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: Peters and Humphrey. You go on, the outside, defense is
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: gonna be really good, really underrated. The offense will be
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: there with Lamar Jackson, but there's just no value in
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: this number. The Bengals I'm very low on It's one
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: of my favorite wind total unders, especially if you could
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: buy if you can find a six under six minus one.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: This is not the year to have all of these
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: coaching changes, scheme changes, quarterback turnover felt. A lot of
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: the things that we're talked about the Panthers are applicable
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: to the Bengals. And in addition, you're asking a rookie
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: quarterback to learn a whole new system coming in his
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: rookie year. And it's very difficult for rookie quarterbacks anyway,
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: but especially this year. So I'm very low on the Bengals.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: The Browns have some of those same issues with I
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: loved all their hires, but they have new schemes, new coaches,
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: a lot of these things that you're trying to implement
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: without a preseason, shortened preparation, shortened summers, etcetera, etcetera. So
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: not only do I think that some of these teams
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: will struggle early the rust and and just getting up
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: to speed, lack of execution might last longer into the year.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: So I think the only logical pick is the Steelers,
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: especially a big Ben could come in and just give
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: that offense anything. The offense had nothing last year. I
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: think that's the pick from a value perspective, From a
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: future's perspective, you look at the Browns because if if
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: they do figure it out, that's a team that could
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: peek later in the year, and you want to buy
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: that upside. But I think for the division, you gotta
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: go stealers. I agree with Raybond. Raybon, you just said
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: something really interesting about the Browns and Stefansky. Kevin Stefan
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: new coach. You've been hearing things that make you uncomfortable.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: Explain what those are this time of year, and it's
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: more fantasy driven because I think betting is a little
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: different process. But I'm really reading about everything that's going
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: on in camp and these offenses in these defense is
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: just what how, how everyone's practicing. And one thing that's
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: really concerned me is we're seeing that the offenses looked
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: really ugly in camp. Baker Mayfield, it really kind of
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: been a pick up of what where he left off
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: last year, which worries me on two fronts. One because
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: we all thought Baker Mayfield was gonna be like the
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: next you know, the next thing here quarterback and it
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: hasn't been the case. And you know, you've had Jarvis
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: Landry missing time, Odell Beckham hasn't been the same receiver
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: he's been early in his career. Um, So really all
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: you have now this run games, and we know and
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: we know that's the most inefficient way to win a
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: football game is running like it's gonna have the least impact.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: So you can have a great running back in Nick Chubby,
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: you can have a great running back in Kareem Hunt. Um,
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: that is not gonna win you football games as much
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: as pass offense and pass defense and so you know,
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: and the defense, which looked great is all banged up
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: to you know, so that might be another one of
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: those wind total unders that I looked to to to
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: hammer at the Cleveland Brown. It's just it's just not
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: I'm not hearing what I need to hear, especially as
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: stuck he said, in a year where there's so much turnover,
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: you want things to get right at least a little
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: bit before you start the season, because every team is
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: making adjustments in season. So it's kind of you know,
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: we can kind of turn it around like every team
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: is doing that. So, um, when things are kind of
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: ugly early, it sets off a red flag for me. Yeah,
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: I think the most interesting thing about this division right
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: now is the Pittsburgh Steelers. Yeah, admittedly I bet this Dealers.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: When the number was at, where did I get it at?
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: I got Pittsburgh about four to one, So I feel
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: a little I feel pretty good about the number I got.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin did the best coaching job he might have
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: ever done, including winning Super Bowls last year. When he's
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: got Duck Hodges as his quarterback, he's without Antonio Brown,
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: he's without Levian Bell, Like, he kept that team together
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: and they ended up playing fairly well throughout the year,
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: and we're a team that had a chance to make
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: a run into the playoffs. So if he is getting
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: any weapons back at all, then I feel like he
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: is a guy who can turn this team into something
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: that is really surprising and really special and stuck. Like
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: you talk about Earl Thomas, you talk about Marshal Yonda,
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: like those are huge, huge losses to a team that
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: don't get sort of accounted for in the glamour stats, right,
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: and especially on the offense of line. And so I
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: do think that there's a little bit, just a little
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: bit of an opportunity. A couple of the fact that like,
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: there is more film now on Lamar Jackson, and as
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: good as he is, and I'm sure he will find
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: ways to sort of counter whatever the defenses are throwing
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: at him. There are more opportunities to understand what he's
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: doing than there were last year. Yeah, I don't, I
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: don't disagree with you. It's just that the Ravens are
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: because of their defense. I mean, Earl Thomas he couldn't tackle,
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: He wouldn't tackle anyone. So it's mainly just all right,
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: he was still very productive free safety. Can Jimmy Smith
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: step in candation? So they do have to find that
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: deep safety that Earl Thomas still was effective in being
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: that center fielder. The hand of losses, it does help
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: to have two book end tackles, the one. The only
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: thing to count that throughout there betting against the Ravens
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: is that they're just an excellent organization. And in a
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: year when you have all of this well coached, besides
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: those two losses, they're bringing a lot back. The pieces
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: they added I think really fit well. You know that
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be prepared. They also don't travel at all.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: It's a few of smiles traveled in like six years
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: so there's a lot of things still working in the
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: Ravens favor, but a minus two, no thanks, I don't
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: disagree with you. It's the Steelers are the value pick
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: for the division and the Browns like, look, they have
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: now two tackles, which is what made you think Mayfield's
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: weaknesses are you just kind of stramped scrambles and bails out.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: If they if they can figure out the offense, this
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: isn't I mentioned this on the last podcast. If they
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: can start to figure out that, you know, more two
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: tight end sets and this and I think an offense
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: that fits more Mayfield style, then you know, and they
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: can make a run late in the year to get
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: to eight and eight or something that remember this year,
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: that could get you into the playoffs. And you know,
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: if you're if you're you can find a thirty to
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: forty one you want to buy the Browns upside, go
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: ahead and do it. But the defensive injuries now mixed
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: with you know, with Delpit and war, mixed with the
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: offensive reports in camp makes me a lot more hesitant
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: than I was a week or two ago. All Right,
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: So basically on the a f C North, we're in consensus.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: We all like the Steelers as the better value. I
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: will tell you right now, I like the Steelers to
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: win the a f C North. I'm just gonna say it,
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: not even from a value perspective. I just like them
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: to win the division. It's so hard to continue to
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: repeat as a division winner in a division where you
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: have real talent and like you're gonna have to play
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: that team twice in the year. I like the Steelers
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: to win the a f C North. Stucky in Raybon,
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: you both like the value on the Steelers. My gathering
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: is that you both think the Ravens will be the
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: ones who win it. I think they should win it.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: I think there they are better than the Steers at
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: this point. Obviously we know that there is a lot
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: of uncertainty and so you know, a couple of things
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: go the Steelers way and against the Ravens, the Stewers
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: could win that division. Like I don't. I think that
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: the gap is way too big. But the thing with
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: the Ravens, you know, they have Greg Roman and and
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: and Stuck kind of engined it just a great organization
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: and Greg Roman coming being there with Lamar Jackson, Like,
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: regardless of they gotta an off season to fully practice
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: or not. UM. Everywhere Greg Roman has gone, he's taken
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: guys that have been like borderline developmental quarterbacks in terms
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: of their throwing the body. UM. Tyrod Taylor in Buffalo
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: made him a starter, Colin Kaepertick in San Francisco made
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: him a Super Bowl starter over Alex Smith. UM. And
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: so he does this. So as long as he's there,
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't I wouldn't worry about the Ravens, um. But
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: it's gonna come down to those two teams, and it's
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: gonna come down to maybe who has a misstep against
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: the Browns or against the Ravens and the Steelers. For
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: all as much as I love Tomlin, you know, Stuck
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: and I we talked about this all the time. You
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: always have these Mike Tomlin let down spots where he
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: can't necessarily give you the rob Rod. It's like not
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: a big game that you know you have to like, um,
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: you know the odds are against you. Sometimes the Steelers
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: slip up in those situations. So like you if you
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: if they lose like one of those games to the
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: Browns or something that could need a difference, and I
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: know the Ravens asten to the Browns last year, but
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: I still have a little bit of edge to the
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: to the Ravens or US. This significant one, I should
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: say significant, A huge test, John. I know it's Week one,
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: but a huge test for me and the Steelers team
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: is that Week one they go to New York. Right there,
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: they go to the Giants there three and a half
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: point favorite. I think that ridiculous, by the way, like
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: it came out of like two and a half. But
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: the Steelers lose that spot every sit Now it's the
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: first game, so it's like it's a little different, but
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: it's you're going to play a bad team on the road.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: Mike tom One is the worst against the spread road
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: favorite coach in NFL Street by any enormous margin, and
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: he loses them out right all the time. I mean,
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: so I want to see what the Steelers do in
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: the spot because it could set there. I mean, it
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: could you lose to the Giants and all of a sudden,
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be hard to catch the Ravens. You drop
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: a game like that, the division beat you. You can't
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: drop a couple of games like that, and then you're
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: starting right off the bat. I'm I'm curious to see
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: what happens with the Steelers that game. You liked the
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: Steelers minus two and a half. Is that when you
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: hammered listen, I get the spot. I get, But yeah,
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: it stuck. You said it's Week one and there's just
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: such a difference between two teams. I mean, and I'm
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: a Giant fan. When I saw that, it was silly.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: I mean with ben Arozzo's like I probably would have
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: been the Steelers minus two and a half last year
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: with Duck Hondies at quarter at New York and like that.
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: That was that. I didn't get that one. All right,
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: Let's move on. Let's move on to the a f
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: C West. We talked about the Chiefs. You talked about
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: you know, when you're talking about the Ravens Chiefs at
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: DraftKings right now. Minus four fifty five to win the
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: a f C West, Chargers plus eight hundred Broncos plus
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: nine hundred Raiders plus twelve Dred twelve to one to
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: win the f C West, the Las Vegas Raiders. Stucky,
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: you get to go first. Give me your value pick
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: to win the a f C West. Can I say
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: there is zero value pick? If I had to pick
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: a team, I guess I would go with the Broncos
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: because I have a future on it. I just think
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: there's upside with them if Drew lock works out, these
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: offensive pieces come in, if they get a wild card
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: and they're peaking late, their defense is there. I don't
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: think that there's any way that they could beat the
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: chief I mean, look, you're gonna have to get a
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: ton of breaks. You get my homes hurt, you get
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: a bunch of Chiefs injuries. I mean, these are the
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: things you right for. I'm also not laying money down
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: on the Chiefs minus four fifty to win a division
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: and with so much uncertainty, and wouldn't do that anyway
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: for locking money up for that long. I think the
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: Broncos are the long term. I think I like them
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: better from an upside perspective because if you do believe
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: in Drew lock I still need to see more. But
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: if you do believe in Drew Locker, you believe in
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: the Shermer offense and some of the pieces they brought
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: in in the draft. Um, you know, maybe they now
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: their franchise center. They have two electric receivers they added
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: to go along with Sutton. The defense should continue to
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: get better. Uh, you know, Fangio's second year questions at corner.
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: But there's some upside if you believe in luck, and
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: I mean in luck and you need a quarterback in
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: this league. I still find that hard. If the Chiefs
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: are gonna win twelve games, well, thirteen games, and I
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: don't see any of the other teams of Division without
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: injuries winning that many games. The Chargers, I mean Derwin
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: James has now hurt, I mean they have. They're gonna
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: just be a really, really conservative team. It feels it's
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: like an eight and eighteen to me. They're gonna try
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: to win games like twenty to seventeen. The Raiders have
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: a brutal schedule to start the year. I mean they
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: could end up one in five. There's still questions on
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: that ruster, especially with the defense and the coaching. So
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: it's really hard to make a case for an any
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: other teams. If I had to buy one, it would
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: be the Broncos. But I'd rather just throw a couple
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: of bucks on the future. I don't want any part
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: of the Chiefs at this price, so I've quickly passed
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: on Division. You put, if you put a gun to
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: my head, I'll take the Broncos. Uh, if you put
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: a gun in my head, I would just lay the
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: four five at the chief. But I agree with Stuck
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: this this, there's no value in betting in huge division favors.
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: You you might as well just bet them game to
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: game to win games, like bet their money lines, bet
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: there like whatever you see the value in a given week.
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: Um bet that, you know, because you know we're too
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: far out to really weigh that much. Um. If if
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: we're talking about long shot value, uh, for me, it's
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: not the Broncos, just because I know there's a lot
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: of hype surrounding them. But um, I think that you know,
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: when you look at quarterback play, Drew I played five
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: games and that's not a lot to most people. But um,
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: you know he did have about it, you know, but
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: a hundred fifty hundreds, you know, sixty dropbacks or something
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: to judge, which you know you get some predictive value
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: out of, and it wasn't very good. Um. You know,
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: I know that there's some pieces that are gonna change.
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: But if I'm taking a long shot, I'm just gonna
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: go with the Chargers because at least they have two
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: quarterbacks who may not be very good, you know, whereas
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: the Broncos have one, the Raiders have one that like
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: as much as I've kind of um, you know this
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: Derek Carr in the past. He actually had a really
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: good season last year. They do have some additional weapons.
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: I just don't know if the moves they made on
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: defense will payoff to the extent that it can with
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: them out of this, like you know, to respectability. Um,
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: if it can, it could be them. But I would
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: just go with the charges because I think they have
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: a defense that's still capable enough of keeping them in games.
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: And there's some upside at the quarterback position in terms
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: of the unknown at least with Herbert. And then you
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: have Taylor, a guy who also is you know, I
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: don't think he's gonna be as good without Greg Roman. Again,
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: I think Romans really the difference maker. But um, at
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: least you have a guy that couldn't like women turnovers
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: and let his defense win the game. And you still
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: have good skill players and Keenan Allen and Austin Eppler,
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: who I think could make a run out like a
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey type season. Um, you know, under Henry, I
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: know we'll into hurt but I think the charges to
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: me just represent the best kind of overall um value
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: if you're betting against the Chiefs. But I wouldn't One
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: thing to keep in mind with the Chargers, that is,
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: if you're looking for a playoff perspective, do play Chiefs
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: week sevent teams if you're I mean, the Chiefs might
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: be resting a lot of people. That's not for a
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: division bet, but just if you want to, if you
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: think they can get into playoffs, that's when you would
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: want to play the Chiefs this year. The problem with
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: the Chargers now is the news that came out today,
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: and that's Darwin James injury, which doesn't look good. He
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: is so important to defense, one of the best safeties
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: in the NFL. He covers in the slot. He's huge,
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: blitzing place deep and places all over in that dime.
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: Gus Bradley's time defense, I should say, and it's that
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: loss is it would be awful for that defense. He's
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: a he's a legit superstar on the defensive side of
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: the ball. Just wanted to throw that out there. Yeah,
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: the Broncos are. It's so interesting. They are that team that,
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: like everybody is starting to talk about and we'll get
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: to them later when we're talking about conference futures. I'm
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: sure because Stuck you said you have them, I have them.
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: At fifty one, Stuck you immediately vaulted over the charge Ers,
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: and Raybon you went with the Chargers because you feel
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: like there's more potential upside in the unknown versus the downside.
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: And what is known about Drew Lock, which is a
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: really smart and interesting way to look at it was
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: sort of evolving for me in all this. And when
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: we had the conversation about the NFC, and I would
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: encourage everyone to go listen to it, and I remind
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: everybody they should rate and review the podcast and use
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: the phrase that pays the dynamic duo of Betting, Raybon
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: and Stucky to win free merch um from the Action Network.
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: But when we had the conversation about the NFC a
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: couple of weeks ago, it felt like there was no
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: consensus at the top, and there were a lot of
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: sort of potential contenders. When we talk about the a
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: f C, and we're gonna get to the a f
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: C South next, we're talking about two certifiable contenders who
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: can blow anyone else out of the water. And then
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: almost like there's no one else worth talking about except
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: for massive long shots. So let's talk about the f
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: South for a second. At DraftKings Colts uh plus one
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: twenty Titans plus one sixty Texans plus three fifty Jaguars.
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: Now without Leonard Fournett's plus talk to me. So this
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: division is the I think the most the best one
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: for value kind of for the reason you just said.
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: There's actually multiple teams in this division that have a
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: chance to contend. I think the Colts are gonna be,
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: you know better. However, I'm betting against them in most
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: situations in the market just because I think that they're
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: They're over They're overrated in the sense that I don't
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: know if they should be like the clear favorites. I
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: don't know if they should be. Uh. You know, I've
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: seen their win total at nine and a half, which means,
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: you know, ten games one. I don't know if they
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: should be um locked in for that. I think the
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: team that for value in this division is the Houston Texans. Listen,
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: they've won nine or more games in all but one
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: year under Bill O'Brien. That was the year when everyone
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: got hurt, including Deshaun Watson. He's won I or more
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: games without Deshaun Watson. Um, you know at the quarterback position.
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: And this really is a toss up division. That's gonna
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: come down to how these teams play against each other
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: in these divisional matchups. I think I think they're they're
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: all gonna probably go to and O against the Jaguars,
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: or at least they should, And it's gonna come down
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: to that. And I just don't see that much separating
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: the Coats from the Titans from the Texans, especially when
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: you consider that the Texans at this point have the
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: best quarterback um In this situation, I know people will
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: say they have the worst coach, and I would say
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: that's true. Love what Frank Riker has done in Indie,
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: love what Rabels doing in Tennessee. But you have Deshaun
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: Watson and your plus three fifty compared to you know,
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: the Titans with Ryan Tannehill at plus one sixty and
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: the Colts with Philip Rivers, who we just talked about.
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: You know, they Chargers underperformed, but when they look really
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: good on paper, um because of Philip Rivers. And I
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: know they're gonna throw shorter this year. He's thrown underneath
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: more and that should help. But um, I just think again,
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: it's too rich to bet them as a favorite at
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: plus one twenty. To give me the Texans at plus
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: three fifty and they kind of remind me of like
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: the Bears of the Lions in the NFC in the
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: NFC UM North, where they're just we're counting them out
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: way too much because we have this idea of these
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: two teams that should be at the top stuck. What
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: say you, yeah, I mean throughout the Jags they're not
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: one of the division. Um, and I don't see. I mean,
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: I have the Colts projective for like right at nine wins,
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: and that's just because they have the easiest schedule in
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: the NFL. UM. But I mean it's not nine and
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: a half. It's still nine. I actually have from a
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: power writing perspective, the Titans and the Cults dead even. UM.
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: So if you were going to take one of those teams,
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: you get one plus one sixty plus. But when I
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: would take the Titans, UM, it'll be interesting to see
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: how Vaybel does as a play caller on the defensive
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: side of the ball and see what differences they need
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: to get a little more pressure. That's one of their
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: weaknesses on the defensive side of the ball. He didn't
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: do well. And the only time he's called plays but
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: their defensive when their dp's are tired. He didn't replace him.
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: He's presumably gonna be calling plays that'll be interesting to see. Um,
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: you know, Ryan Tannell is not a fluke. Look at
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: all the advanced stats last year. He's in a perfect
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: offense for his skill set with that play action heavy,
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: good running game. Um you know, he's got a freak
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: receiver to throw the ball to. It's it's it's in
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: all the advanced that say he had a top five
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: year from a quarterback perspective once he took over his starter.
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: Uh so Tennessee will be there. Um the Houston I think,
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: you know, if you're if you're taking a pick in
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: this division, if you I think you have to do
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: from a value perspective, they either take Houston or Tennessee.
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: Just to go back to what Ravon said, Look, the
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: one thing that scares me about Houston is like, you
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: lose Hopkins and your defense is just so bad. I mean,
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: especially in the secondary. I mentioned coaching changes. They have
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: a new defensive coordinator. Can they scheme up more pressure?
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: I mean, they just wouldn't blitz and they would just
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: get picked apart on third downs. So maybe there's some
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: upside with the defense because it was just so bad
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: last year. Now they don't really have a defensive backfield
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: that gets you excited. But if you can kind of
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: scheme up different looks and more pressure, there's nowhere to
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: go but up with that defense, especially on third downs.
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: But you have the best quarterback in the division. It's
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: a quarterback league. I'll say that over and over again.
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: So I don't think you can go wrong with Tennessee
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: or Houston. I have too many questions with Houston. And
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: since I make Indianapolis and Tennessee, I rate them similarly.
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: Give me the extra value with the Titans. What's annoying
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: is it's not even an exciting bet, you know what
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: I mean? Like this division, there is no five to one,
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: six to one. Save your money. It'll it'll probably come
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: down to like a week six team matchup and it'll
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: be like a pick and then you could just bet
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: the game and you saved. You saved holding up your
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: money for three months. That's exactly right in the n
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: FC South. Don't even bet a division winner. Bet the
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: Cults Titans at the end one of the last three
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: weeks of the year, you will get better odds on
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: whichever team on the money line, of whichever team you
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: think is gonna win and if the if, like everybody
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: is close at the end of the year, I think,
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: and that's bad betting advice. I think this division is
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: actually the most value to bet because it's the only
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: one where there's like, there's three teams and they're all
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: at plus money, and like the third one is not
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: very different from the first two. So like, I think
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: this is the best division to bet, honestly, like because
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: even even even the Titans, even the Titans, like Stuck said,
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: they you could easily look at them and as a favorite,
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: but their plus one sixty, you know, So I think
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: I think the Titans and Texans make this division a
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: better division a bet than the others. I have no
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: interest in in betting a plus one sixty division winner,
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: you know, in September and waiting three or four months,
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: hoping there's no injuries, hoping COVID concerns. Don't go against
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: me when you know it might come down to a game.
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: I can bet three months from now. That's how you
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: gotta bet the Texas. If you bet the Texas, a
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: different story. So that that's so like that's why I
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: previ mean I prefer to like look at longer shots
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: futures this year more so than any um, just with
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: so much uncertainty and you don't even know if we're
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: gonna have a couple of weeks canceled. But I will say, Chad.
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: And also one exception is if you believe in Minshew magic.
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: I mean if at one for division, I don't believe
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: in that what anything that Jackson was doing, but if
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: you do, you get twenty two to one on division.
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: And you believe in Minshew magic, I say this, I'll say,
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: is I think Gardner Minshew is better than Drew Lock.
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: I'll say that. Here's what I love. Yeah, this is
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: what makes you the dynamic duo of betting, Raybond. You
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: went right after Stucky. Stucky gave bad advice and you
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: just went after him. Hey, that's what we do. Who
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: called me out? Anytime I have sunk up to you
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: probably will. Let's go to the a f C East.
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: We got the bills. This at least gets interesting, right,
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: the Bills plus one twenty, the Patriots plus one thirty,
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: the Jets plus eight fifty, and it looks like the
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: UH the Dolphins are a plus eight hundred. It's all
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: about the Buffalo Bills, although I mean, I just I
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: don't have. I don't have. I'm not rushing to the
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: counter about a plus one, as I just said, But
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: I like the Bills for a lot of different reasons.
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna hammer this home like I've done. Stability, right, coaching,
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: All the Bills have all these things. They return almost
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: every starter. They rebuilt their offensive line last year, all
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: five of them comebacks. I think their offensive line is
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: gonna be a little better, which will help. Obviously, they
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: have at Stefon Diggs. Now you get a bona fide
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: one to UH receiver duo that you can give the
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen their defense loaded, it's gonna be great against
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: the past. They added some front seven pieces that I
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: think are interesting. But I mean this team has a
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: lot of stability. I love their coaching, and if you
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: want to invest in the Bills, they're gonna go against
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: everything I said. I don't think that. I don't think
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen is the guy to win a Super Bowl, right,
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: it's not accurate enough yet and we have enough of
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: a sample size to see it. But in that division,
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: with that defense, I think it's the Bills. I'm lower
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: on the Patriots than the market by far. I'm lower
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: on the Jets so obviously just by default, and I'm
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: about neutral on the Dolphins. I think there's some upside
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: there if you want to argue for the Dolphins, go
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: for it. But I'm just so much lower on the
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: Jets and Patriots in particular, that there's a lot of
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: value on the Bills to me from this division, I
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: think the Patriots with all of their defensive turnover, I mean,
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: who knows what we're gonna get on offense. I still
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: don't believe in any of their their skill position players.
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: They're surrounding with Newton who's had three surgeries and three years.
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: So even if Newton is healthy, there's still questions on
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: the offensive line and then the skill positions. With a
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: reduced summer prep, no preseason new quarterback and defense, you're
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: replacing like your entire front seven, you had all the
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: holdouts or the opt outs in the secondary. I mean
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: they are in rebuild mode without Bill Belichick people I
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: think would be and you have to respect them a
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: lot lower on the Patriots than they are. And the
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: Jets are just a dumpster fire. I don't believe in
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: Donald and Adam Gaze, and I think that's that's gonna
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: go down here quick. I think they start out in
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: three and that everything just lights up in flames. I
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: couldn't agree with anything you said more than everything you
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: just said beautiful. I'll talk about Josh because I like
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: the Bills as well, and so his inaccuracy issues right.
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: Last year, he threw deep, which is you know, you
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: expect Josh Allen to to swing it deep because that's
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: one of the things he can do relatively well. Uh,
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: throwing to all wide receivers not named John Brown, so
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: that would be Robert Foster, Cole Beasley, Isaiah McKenzie, Andre Roberts,
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: and Duke Williams. He was three for on passes twenty
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: or more yards down the field. Now throwing a Brown,
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: he was Canada twenty two UM, one of the top
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: mark one of one of the top officiencies in the
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: league in terms of their connection. Stefon Diggs was the
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: best deep receiver in the league last year. Most yards
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: despite you know, Minnesota's offense through the ball, even Western Buffalo,
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: So that could make a huge difference. Um adding Diggs.
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: And then you also look at Josh Allen's inaccuracy and
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: who's one of the receivers he threw to the most
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: two in his career, Za Jones. Him and j Jones
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: have a sub fifty percent completion percentage together, horrible staf
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: at um, but that's who's A Jones is like the
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: Jones is not very good and he's not on that
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: team nowhere. He hasn't been now for you know, half season.
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: So there there's gonna be Josh Allen's first full year
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: without Za Jones and his first full year with Stefon Diggs.
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: So he has now two viable deep threats along with
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: John Brown Um and knows A Jones. And when you
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: kind of look at all those numbers, and I do
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: this for fantasy and you kind of project them out
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: removing and adding all the parts, he's just a week average,
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: he's weak average, and accuracy like, he's not terrible, he's
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: not great. But um, these could have a huge, huge,
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: um kind of impact on his numbers. So I think
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: that's that's great for Buffalo, and then you just kind
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: of look at them in a division and both you know,
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: New England shaking at quarterback Buffalo you could say shaking
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: everyone is Um everyone England and Buffalo have great defenses.
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: Give me Buffalo and a toss up because I think
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: you worry a little bit more about Newton's health. Uh,
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: and I think, um, you know, I think the skill
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: positions are better in Buffalo. So yeah, I'm totally agree
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: with stuff here. I feel like Raybon's assessment of Josh
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: Allen and the Buffalo Bills is a little bit like
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: the most backhanded compliment you can deliver. He's going to
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: be better than what he was, but that's still gonna
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: make him barely average. But in a division with bad
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: quarterback play all around, he might as well be the guy,
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: the guy that you bet on. Essentially what you just said, well,
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: I've met averaging completion rates, So completion rate of all
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: the stats is not gonna necessarily determine who wins and
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: loses the game. It always gonna come down to more so,
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: like your efficiency, like your yards per attempt, your net
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: yards or whatever not. But like by by improving Alan's
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: completion rate, that's gonna mean his yardage is gonna go up,
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: and like I said, Diggs is gonna help that. And
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: so his overall efficiency is going to improve because he's
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: played with this super like perhaps the week's most inefficient
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: receiver that was actually getting playing time and z Jones
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: and then perhaps the week's most inefficient uh kind of
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: combination of guys. You can throw deep to that receiver,
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: Um out we're getting targets. So um, there's just a
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: lot of room for improvement. And then remember Josh Allen
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: brings extra with his legs that most quarterbacks don't. He's
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: essentially there. You know, he can play the role of
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: goal line back and um, he can he can scramble
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: when he's in trouble, which you know, if the offensive
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: line is struggling in a particular matchup or the receivers
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: aren't getting open um, he can bail an out of
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: lit him more than most quarterbacks. So it's it's not
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: a knock against out. And I'm just saying he can
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: get his completion rate to week average, which and that's
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: been a knock on him. Alright. So the argument Raybons
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: argument for Josh Allen is he's a goal line back
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: and and Z Jones is gone. I'm just kidding seriously, Jones,
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean, Like you got to look
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: at the numbers for Z Jones and Josh Allen. It
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: is like it's like it's like forty seven percent completions,
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: like four point eight yards per target. Like it's bad.
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: But I think that speaks to the larger point, like
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: the a f C outside of the Ravens and the
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: and the Chiefs, it's kind of trash right now, And
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: like we could have come up with we came up
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: with a consensus on the a f C North that
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: this Dealers are the best value at plus three fifty
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: to win that division. But then we're like debating the
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: Broncos at plus nine hundred and the Charterers at plus
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: eight hundred. Stucky won't even bet the a f C South,
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: And so Raybon is loving the Titans at plus one
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: twenty just because you're getting plus moneysion, like you like
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: the Texans at plus three fifty, But that's because the
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: rest of the division isn't isn't very good, And like
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: now we're talking about the Bills plus one twenty in
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: a dilapidated a f C East that used to be like,
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: you know, the cream of the crop. So this is
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: gonna make it really interesting when we go into our
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: next segment um and we talk about odds to win,
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: our our favorite bets to win the conference. So let's
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: do another thing, another thing. Alright, your favorite team from
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: the a f C the best odds to win the
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl some some a f C name teams, right,
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: Chiefs at about plus six hundred six to one, Ravens
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: six and a half to one. Then, by the way,
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: after that, it goes to our point. You've got forty
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: nine plus nine, Saints eleven to one, Bucks fourteen to one,
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: Cowboys fifteen to one, Seahawks twenty to one, Eagles one.
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: Then then you get a little bit of a run.
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: You've got Paths of twenty to one. That is only
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: because of Bill Belichick and sort of the legacy that
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: he has and bookmakers trying to sort of limit the
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: liability Colt to one, Bills to one, uh Steelers one. Like,
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: come on, guys, let's talk about the a f C.
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: Here stuck, give me one team, one team that is
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: like worth taking a flyer on. Um. You know I'm
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: gonna say again, I can't see the bit. It's a
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: quarterback league. I I won't invest in the future. I
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: remember one I wanted us in the future under ten
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: to one. In this year with so much uncertainty, I'm
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: it's just not worth it to me. I think that
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs and Ravens are clearly the two best teams
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: in the NFL. I don't want any any part of
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: a Super Bowl future. I don't see Josh Allen doing it.
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: By the way, Bills are, they're gonna betting they been
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: betting on in the wind Division. They have one of
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: the divisions since and either a playoff game or division
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: since um, and you know the Colts, I don't. I
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: don't see it. Um. I don't think Rivers has that
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: much left in the tank. Hope benefit from playing in
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: a dome at home he's familiar with, right, but and
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: I also don't buy their corners. Roads is washed Xavier Rhodes,
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: it's supposed to be their they're big signing. He's washed up. UM.
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: So it's it's really hard for me to find a
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: team that I like in that mid tier. Patriots don't
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: buy them, So it's I just a couple of shots
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: in the NC is what I've done. You make me
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: pick one. Uh, I'm gonna say the Broncos at fifty
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: two one. The Browns with their injuries, defense is really
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: making pause. That was my favorite one. Um. The Broncos
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: comes down to the fact that, yes, we saw some
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: Drew Lock. The offensive was in he just I mean
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: he was throwing at like four yards down the field.
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: His average depth of target was like nothing. So with
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: this new offense, what is it gonna look like? I
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: don't know is can Drew Lock take the next step right?
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: And if he does and the rookie which receivers work out,
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: they have a super Bowl cowbir defense. If their corners
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: they can just find a second corner really in Callahan's
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: healthy in the slot. Um, So I'm gonna say the Broncos.
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: It's it's I'm not necessarily a believer. There's a lot
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: of Drew Lock hype out there that's not me. But
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: if it does come to fruition, the Broncos are an
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: intriguing team that still will no matter what, have a
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: home field advantage with that altitude, even without crowd. So
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: I'll go to that. For me, it's it's really two teams,
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: but the one I the one I took was earliest
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: with the pit perk Steelers. That to one, I just
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: think that they're a lot more closer to the conversation
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: that the Chiefs and the Ravens are in than to
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: this kind of mid tier of you know, dart throws.
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: They have the defense, the defense finished you know number
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: three in in past and run d v O A
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: last year. I mean, and they have pretty much everyone back,
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: and now they have a quarterback coming back that um
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: you know is is above average quarterback, and they have
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: good weapons around the offense even without a b U.
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: They have a coach as we mentioned, who's you know,
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: been there, done that. So I think the Steelers are
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: really that team. Um you know, that's that's kind of
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: given those long shot adds that has a real chance,
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: and um, you know, I would throw the I would
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: throw the Texans in there as well, at at fifty
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: two one, because listen, the Texans were right there. The
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: Texans were, you know, they were in the midst of
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: that a f C playoff race, even with the shaky
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: defense and all that last year. And uh, a lot
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: of that is just because you have DeShawn Watson at
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: quarterback and you know in this year where there's gonna
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: be all the uncertainty and game myth. You know, defense
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: is gonna kind of UM has the potentially even out
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: a lot more, either with you know, used improving, other
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: teams declining or whatnot. So I think fifty t one
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: is just way too much UM for one of the
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: better quarterbacks in the league, UM and a team that's
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: actually one game. It's not just like you know, Atlanta
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: and Matt Ryan. It's like they'll have one good year
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: and then goes like seven and nine. Like Houston's consistent.
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: We've been at least the winning team in that in
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: that UM playoff conversation, and so I think it's way
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: too low for them at fifty to one as well.
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: So every year for the past three years, uh no,
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: two years prior to this, I have bet the Texans
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: to win the Super Bowl. And I'm way off them
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: because of DeAndre Hopkins. I'm way off them because of
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: Bill O'Brien. I have a lot of concerns about their
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: defense and J. J. Watt just not being able to
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: stay on the field. UM. So the team that I
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: went with, I made six futures bets between division winners
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: and super Bowl winners. Uh. We talked about some of
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: these last week. I bet the Bears to win their
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: division and win the Super Bowl. I bet Minnesota to
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: win the Super Bowl. I bet the Arizona Cardinals to
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: win the Super Bowl at fifty one. I also bet
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: the Steelers to win their division. And then the last
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: bet that I made the Denver Broncos at fifty one.
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: And I feel like a lot of it has to
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: do with their defense and sort of I do think
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: they're going to be improving. I do think that, like
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: in a in a quarterback driven league, Drew lock was serviceable.
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: I wasn't like, oh my god, he's Kyler Murray um,
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: but I like what he can do compared to not
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: throwing a game away and having a defense that I
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: think could be really aggressive and potentially sneak out sneak
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: out some wins in the playoffs, if things bounce their way,
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: if Patrick Mahomes is injured, if they end up not
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: seeing him till the a f C Conference Conference title game,
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: things like that, you're in that game, you get a shot.
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: So I went with the Broncos fifty one. I was stuck.
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: I was stuck on everything today and I'm against Raybon.
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: You're betting on the Broncos and Drew Rock at the
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: same odds you could get the Texans and DeShawn Watson on.
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: The Texans have been there every year but one. They've
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: been a winning team with O'Brien Watson or not. You're
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: really betting against uh Deshaun Watson with Drew Rock. I
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: just want at the same odds. I just want you
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: to realize that getting the Bowl okay, But but just
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: get to the wild Card Saturday and the Ducks out.
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: And this isn't even opinion, this is like numbers. Back
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: this up. Like passing efficiency just straight up essentially passing offense,
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: which is your quarterback is correlated to victory, to margin
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: of victory so much more than like every other factor
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: combined that Like does the real upside come from the
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: Broncos with an maybe okay quarterback and defense or does
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: it come from the Texans with a great quarterback and
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: it maybe serviceable defense. Like I feel like it's got
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: to be the Texans, Like their defense could be bad
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: and it can still be. In that conversation there, their
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: defense was bad and they were still up twenty four
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: and the Chiefs in the in the in the playoffs,
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: you know, I mean, if they're not playing Patrick Mahomes,
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: they're probably moving on. It's the upside of the addition
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: that they have. They drafted basically two starting receivers for them,
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: so if they work out as well, like we just
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: talked about with Josh Allen, the addition of receivers can
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: help out your quarterback obviously. So if there are two
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: receivers that they signed, you know, come in and they
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: could be productive right away. With Sutton as a true
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: number one, you have a good tight end. That's only
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: gonna help Lock who just had basically Sutton last year.
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: But even with those two receivers that they have great seasons,
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: do you expect Drew box Y p A to be
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: better than Shaun No? But the the Texas is the
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: better pick. It's passing efficiency to Broncos defenses night and day.
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: Stopping the past and getting to the quarterback also matters too,
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: and the and the Texas can't do either. Okay, Broncos
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: just have an average quarterback situation, like the defense, you
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: could be a lot more average, like we've seen that
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: with the Texas. That's that's why it's a bet, although
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: raybon is making me rethink this. I can't decide if
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: Raybond's passion for Deshaun Watson, who I have been in
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: love with since Clemson, is making me completely rethink my position,
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: or if Raybond is being way too derivative and looking
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: only at the numbers and not really considering the other
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: elements to go into this, which is defense will get
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: you at some point. It has to get you to
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: the next round and into the super Bowl a b.
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: Bill O'Brien is just not a guy you want to
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: have any money invested in for an extended period of time.
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: It used to be like many many years ago, coaches
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: had zero impact on point spreads, right, and then all
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: of a sudden, like you got North Turner who was
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: the one guy that every wise guy would downgrade and
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: sort of take points against Um and Bell Belichick who
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: everybody would sort of at a point or two of value.
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: Bill O'Brien to me, has that same impact, like he
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: has done such a bad job just sort of been
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: managing this team and and how he coaches his team.
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: I cannot put my hard and money for an extent
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: part of time on the Houston Texas I mean the
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: Texans actually tend to go over their their preseason odds
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: because everyone's kind of downrading them. You know, they they're there,
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: their rent total tends to be like eight and a
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: half and they win nine. Uh, you know they don't
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: they're not. They're usually not the favorite for the division,
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: which they end up winning. Um. I mean I think
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: that's kind of baked in and there and and another.
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson and the Texans are also one of the
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: most profitable teams to bet is as underdogs, which all
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: you know, like they actually win these spots because people
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: do doubt him. So yeah, I don't have a problem
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: betting the Texas over wins to win the division. Um.
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: I just don't see any scenario where they can win
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: a Super Bowl. But from either getting to the conferencehapionship.
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: There one of two teams in the history that I
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: felt have never even been to a conference championship. Bill
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: Bryant might be able to take him to the first
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: Saturday Uh and like that, what was it the Bengals
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: Texans Bowl? Um, you have backup quarterbacks playing, so I
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: mean he could take them there. But that's it. So
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: I don't have a problem with Texans betting the week
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: the week division, um, but to win a super Bowl?
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: Don't see it? You know what, I might put a
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: little taste, just a little tiny taste on the Texans
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: at fifty to one. Chris Raybon Stucky, hosts of the
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: award winning Action Network podcast Our NFL host YouTube, are
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: a dynamic duo and a reminder. Reminder. Two weeks ago,
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: when you guys joined the podcast, we asked fans. We
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: asked fans to rate and review by using the winning
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: phrase I need a six pack that's right in their
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: review to win a free Action network Coodie. We had
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: loads and loads reviews. Thank you for that. In a second,
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: we're going to reveal the winner, but first we are
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: dow in it again. We are bringing it back, the
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: phrase to pays contest sat practice, go great and review
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: the podcast using the phrase. The dynamic duo Raybon and Stucky,
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: because they are are betting superheroes, use the phrase, we
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: will randomly choose the winner to get a free action network.
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: Could the winner of last week's contest winning an Action network?
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: Could he is mott Yellniff. If that is your real name,
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: Mott yell Neff, you are the winner of the phrase
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: that pays and you are getting an action network could
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: he Here is your review. I feel like every gambler
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: in America can agree with me when I say I
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: could use a six pack. It's been a long offseason.
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: Things are pretty weird, and that's the nicest way I
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: could put it. But host Chad Milman and The Favorites
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: podcast have been there for me, he confides, He informs,
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: he brings on experts like Chris Raybon and Stucky. He
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: sings sometimes, which is a little upsetting, but this is
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: a show that remembers where it came from, and now
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: after an off season of being ground into dust, it's
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: helping build me back up into the gambler I once was.
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: Thank you Matt yellnif alright joining me next on the
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: Favorites podcast. Everybody knows that I am all over the
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: Bears this year, that Simon Hunter professional better. Regular guests
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: of the podcast co host with me during the football season.
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: Also all over the Bears, all over the Bears to
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: win the NFC North, all over the Bears to win
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. We have been getting a lot of
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: questions about the Bears, so I wanted to bring in
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: Lauren Cox, who hosts the Lockdown podcast Networks Lockdown Bears podcast.
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: He knows more about the Bears than just about anybody
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: covering the Bears, and listen, I got a lot of questions, Laura,
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: and how are you, buddy. I'm doing well, how are you?
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: I'm good? Thanks for doing this. So I'm going to
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: ignore your Wisconsin accent and just assume that your love
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: of the Bears runs deep. And I have so many questions,
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: like the running back situation, what is happening there? The
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: quarterback situation, what is what is happening there? What are
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: the Bears doing without any Goldman, Like, let's start with
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: the running back because I think like there's so many
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: questions about David Montgomery right now, and people can have
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: those fantasy questions, but like, what are you seeing? What
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: are you hearing about the impact that David Montgomery and
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: what's happening in this preseason is having on the Bears
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: offense and the running back situation. So all eyes are
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: on David Montgomery's growing which is funny to say now,
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: but it was thought to be about a two to
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: four week injury that he suffered last week from the
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: time we're recording this, and so it's a question of
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: will he be ready for a week one, week two,
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: week three. It's not gonna be a long term injury
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: from the sound of It's just more of a strain
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: than anything else. But Matt Nigi says he's really confident
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: in the running backs that they have. You know, they
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: converted Cordelle Patterson sort of he's gonna be this hybrid
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: and running back wide receiver. That's sort of like the
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: big mystery play toy for this Bears offense this year
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: is what exactly Cordinal Patterson's role is gonna be. How
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: that's gonna look. He's working with the running backs and
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: getting running back coaching, but also still lining up at
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: wide receiver, and you think back to like what the
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: Patriots did with him, there's you know, it was kind
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: of simplified where he was just in the eye formation,
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: you know, outside zone with a fullback, kind of make
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: sure that you didn't have to think too much and
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: learn the full gamut of the running back position. But
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: it sounds like the Bears are having him learn past
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: protection and different routes out of the backfield that he's
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: not quite used to. From that wide receiver position. So
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: I get the impression that they feel confident enough in
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: Tarik Cohen and Cordial Patterson, maybe even Ryan Noll to
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: get by for a week or two if needed, while
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: David Montgomery is out that they can they can put
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: together a game plan enough to say that those guys
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: can carry the ball enough against the Lions and the Giants,
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: two opponents that maybe they should be able to have
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: some better success against, and then hopefully from there. David
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: Montgomery's back for week three and beyond, and he's coming
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: in some of the best shape of his life. He
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: dropped somebody fat, belt at it, some muscle and seems
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: to be moving a little bit quicker and having that
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: more better comfort in the offensive, better understanding of what
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: Matt Naggie wants him to do. The pieces are coming
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: together there in the backfield. Yeah, spoken like an incredibly
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: naive optimist who I Am going to use the benefit
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: of more experience as a Bears fan and say that
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: the last thing you want when you've got a team
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: at forty five to one to win the Super Bowl
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: and you've got a team at four to one to
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: win the division is going into the season just getting
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: by and hoping that the guy can get better for
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: the first two weeks. By the way, especially when let's
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: transition to the quarterback situation, when you've got the guy
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: who was drafted instead of Patrick Mahomes and who has
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: got the richest contract in NFL history, who's got an
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: end VP and a super Bowl in his first three years.
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: The guy he was drafted instead of Deshaun Watson, who
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: will soon be getting a mega rich deal, who never
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: seems to have a losing season. This is the guy
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: the Bears traded up. They traded up to get Mr Bisky,
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: and he's battling a journeyman QB who granted won a
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: super Bowl, but he has never been a great starter.
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: That is my concern because now we have a quarterback
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: situation that is bad and a running back situation that
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: is bad, and there's offensive line questions in there too.
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: I'm sure we can get to but yeah, the with
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: the quarterbacks, it's it's one of those things where it
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: felt like this offseason they had an opportunity with so
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: many different quarterbacks available in the free agent market and
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: even by trade. But you know, guys like Tom Brady,
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: Philip Rivers, Jamis Winston, Cam Newton, eventually even Andy Dalton.
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: I mean, there are a lot of quarterbacks out there
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: that the Bears could have chose from, and instead they
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: traded a fourth round pick for Nick Foles, and it
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: felt like maybe more like Trabinsky insurance rather than a
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: full clear planned to upgrade the position, like they got
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: a guy that can be a backup that knows the offense,
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: that has that experience, but can also take over and
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: start when you need him to. But it wasn't a
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: direct like, let's make this quarterback position as great as possible.
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: And so now it's literally the beginning of September, we
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: still don't know who the Bear starting quarterback is gonna be.
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: Trabisky and Foals have pretty much gone back and forth,
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: neck and neck through all of training camp in the preseason,
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: the alternating days of who's getting, you know, the practicing
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: with the runs and who's practicing with the twos. Some
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: days Trabiskyll look great, some days Foals will look great,
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: other days there will be some mistakes mixed in there.
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: So Trabinsky kind of starts as the incumbent and the
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: I guess the betting favorite in that regard, because he
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: is the guy who has that familiarity with his receivers
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: and offensive linemen and running backs. Even though Foals worked
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: in this offense in the past, it has still been
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: an acclamation period for him and for a lot of
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: folds his career, he's been the guy it's almost been
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: better coming off of the bench, and he's never played
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: a full six team games season and a lot of
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: his best stretches with Philadelphia in particular, Carson Wentz gets
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: hurt halfway through the season. You know, even right at
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: the playoffs, Fools comes in kind of rides that wave
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: and gets a Super Bowl m v P as a result.
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: You can kind of see maybe not that good of
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: a narrative, but the same kind of narrative of Chicago,
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: where Trabinsky maybe gets to start at the beginning of
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: the year Bears see how much he can still do
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: and eventually maybe make the change to Nick Foles, see
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: if that can reinvigorate them halfway through the season and
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: push them into the playoffs. So if I had that
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: on the Bears at for to want to win the
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: division and forty five to one to win the Super Bowl.
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: Lauren Cox from the Locked On podcast Network for the
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: Chicago Bears podcast, I might feel pretty good if we
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: go that route, Like if we can get an Eagles replica,
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: then that could be fantastic for me. Yeah, And you
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: could sort of see, you know, when you just like
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: glance at the Chicago Bears schedule, you can sort of
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: see about where this narrative plays out in terms of
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: when some of these switchovers might happen. Because in a
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: Week one and two against the Lions and the Giants,
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: Tom He's always been great against the Lions in his career.
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: It's the one team that he's really been able to beat.
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: Giants not necessarily pushing for a big time playoff spot.
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: But then you start to get in this stretch Falcons, Colts, Buccaneers, Panthers, Rams, Saints,
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: brings you to Week eight. There's some potential playoff teams
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: in there, and some teams that Trabinsky has struggled against
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: you in particular, and maybe that's when the change starts
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: to happen. And they had a Week eleven by and
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: then it's a stretch towards the end of the season
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: of some divisional games makes the Texans and Jaguars and
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: they get them really battle tested and if Fools can
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: be that difference maker, there's a run up there into
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: the postseason where there's an opportunity to make some noise.
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: It's a question of, truly, how long is Mitch Drabinsky's
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: leash if he is even going to get the job,
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: because it just feels like it's a matter of when
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: Nick Foles takes over as a starter. Not if I
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: agree with you, I totally agree with you. It's also
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: a question of who is he going to throw to,
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: what are his weapons gonna be, how many tight ends
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: can the Bear sign that nobody else wants that they
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: can sign to multi gazillion dollar deals, um. And then
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: it's also a question of what is the defense gonna
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: look like? Like? What am I betting on here? I
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: obviously felt like like to me, the Bears had superstars
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: at all three levels of the defense. You had Eddie
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: Goldman anchoring the defensive line, you had Khalil Mack at linebacker,
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: and you had Eddie Jackson in the defensive backfield. So
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: like Eddie Goldman has decided to sit out because of Corona,
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: what is your assessment of what that does to this
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: team's chances? I think it's I mean, it's it's obviously
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: at a critical role that nose tackles spot in the
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: middle of this defense, but I think they can they
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: can survive without him, you know, in terms of changes
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: to this Bears defense, I'm a little bit more concerned
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: about some of the changes in the secondary around Eddie Jackson,
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: But in terms of that front seven, you know, they
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: can have Bual Nickel slide over to that nose tackle
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: spot and handle some of those reps. And Eddie Goldman
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: is very good stop in the run and playing, you know,
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: holding on those double teams and letting the linebackers get
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: downhill and just make those plays in the backfield. But
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: the NFL he has won and loss on passing downs,
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: and not that Eddie Goldman is not an effective pass
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: rusher at times, but he's more of that first and
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: second down lineman, and they'll get some different pass rusher
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: rotations in there in third and long and some of
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: those passing situations. So I think they feel like adding
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: Robert Quinn and outside linebacker can make up for some
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: of Eddie Goldman's loss. That if you could just have
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: guys that can fill some space on the inside, Mac
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: and Quinn should be able to do some of that
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: damage and feel like, Okay, even if you're not getting
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: quite the same penetration that Eddie Goldman did, you can
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: survive with the guys you have on the defensive line
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: and hope that some of the upgrades you've made around
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: them getting you know, some of their linebackers back healthy,
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: adding Robert Quinn some changes in that secondary that maybe
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: you can make up for it and keep this defense
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: back in that same top ten range. All right, Lauren Cox,
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: break it down for me. NFC North Lions, Bears, Vikings, Packers.
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: Rank it for me right now. Tell me who's number one,
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: Who's number were at the end of the year. You know,
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: I'm I'm one of those guys that's high on the
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: Detroit Lions more so than I think a lot of
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: people who just I thought Matthew Stafford played so well
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: last season before he got hurt. So I really struggle
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: with this division because the Packers aren't a three and
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: thirteen quality team again, the Minnesota Vikings took some step backs.
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: I think you're gonna see these teams all finish within
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: one or two wins of each other, you know, eleven
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: and five, ten and six, nine and seven, eight and
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: eight all in that sort of range. I'd have to
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: still go Green Bay Packers one until proven otherwise then
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: it's it's really up in the air for me if
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: if Nick Foles can be that difference maker for Chicago.
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: But I I still am inclined to say Vikings too,
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: but Bears really close behind them at three and then
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: the Lions maybe even tied with the Bear. You know,
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: I'm thinking like Packers, you know, ten ten or eleven wins,
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: Vikings ten or eleven wins, and then the Bears and
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: Lions each at nine or eight wins and kind of
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: all really tightly packed in there. But at this point
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: I'm still kind of ready to go with where it
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: finished last year. Packers, Vikings, Bears, Lions, but much close
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: certain than it was last year. You're totally wrong. It's Bears,
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: it's Vikings, it's Packers, it's Lions. Lauren Cox from the
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: Chicago Bears Locked On podcast from the Lockdown Podcast Network.
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: Thank you for coming on the favorites and making me
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: feel even worse about my Chicago Bears futures. Bet they
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: do it to you. I just passed it along. Yeah,
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: all right, you're just the messenger. Well, we're gonna talk
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: a little bit about the New York Jets, who are
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: one of the more interesting teams that have been getting
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: a lot of attention from betters during the off season
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: as we head into the season. Posted the Lockdown New
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: York Jets podcast part of the Lockdown Podcast Network. John
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: Butch COO, John, how are you, buddy, I'm great, glad
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: to be here today. Thanks for doing this. The Jets
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: have had a fascinating offseason. You cannot think about the
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: Jets without thinking about turmoil, without thinking about the Jamal
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: Adams trade. Did they get robbed? Did they not get robbed?
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: Are they going to be a better team? Are they
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: a team in which Joe Douglas the GM is building
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: a brilliant roster or is he a complete and utter fool.
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: What is your take right now about the New York Jets,
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: whose win total, by the way, I think, is it
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: a very elevated seven. Joe Douglas did not get wrong
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: when he traded Jamal Adams to the Seattle Seahawks, because
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: the Jet did get two first round picks in the
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: third round pick in return, and that's a package that
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: I think was comparable to what the Raiders got a
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: couple of years ago. For Khalil Mack Matthew is one
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: of the best edge rushers in the league. Jamal Adams
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: is arguably the top safety in the NFL, but safety
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: just doesn't have the positional value of an edge rusher.
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: You could argue about how things got to the point
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: why Adams was so adamant about wanting to leave the
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: organization to The Jets have some degree of blame in that,
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: and I think whenever a long term relationship deteriorates to
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: the point the relationship between the Jets and Adams deteriorated
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: to everybody is probably responsible to some extent. But the
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: fact of the matter is that Adams did not want
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: to remain a member of the Jets. I don't think
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: it would have been product for him to stay around,
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: and the Jets got a great package and return. The
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: Jets now have multiple first round picks the next two years,
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: and that's only they really need because even with Jamal Adams,
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: this was not a team that was winning game. The
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: team that was that needed a lot more than Jamal Adams.
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: He was really the only player of value who could
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: bring this type of draft capital back to them in return.
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: So I think if you're looking long term, the Jets
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: got what they needed. The Jets needed need more draft picks,
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: and now, in the short run, it certainly makes the
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: team worse for I don't think there's any question about that.
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: But I think in the long run, the Jets have
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: given themselves what they need, the resources that they need
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: to finally turn this thing around and start building a
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: competitive football team. Do you think this could be a
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: seven win football team? I look at this roster, I
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: think about what you just said. I think this team
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: is going to be terrible. Seven wins feels like the
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: win total for a mediocre team. Give me your take
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: on that. Yes, I think this can be a seven
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: win football team. I'm not sure whether it will be.
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: I think I saw it on Pro Football Focus the
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: other day there was an article that said that the
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: Jets probably have the widest variety of potential outcomes of
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: any team in the NFL this year because you do
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: have a very promising third year quarterback in Sam Donald.
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: And if you watch, if you look at the NFL,
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: when teams arrive attempt to be because their quarterback takes
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: a major step forward you look at Donald's first two seasons,
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: they were up and down, but he also had I mean,
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: there were also lots of issues and the team surrounding him.
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: But here's the here's the fact that a lot of
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: people don't realize. It's kind of amazing. Sam Donald was
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: actually younger than Joe Burrow, so he kind of held
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: his head above water. And a really bad situation his
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: first two years with the Jets because Jets just we
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: just were not a good football team. They did not
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: put good pieces around him those first couple of seas.
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: And and the fact he was able to do that
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: while he still should have been at USC. This this
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: was supposed to be his draft year. If he had
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: stayed and exhausted his entire eligibility at USC, this would
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: have been the year where he was drafted. So I
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: was able to do that in such adverse circumstances. He
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: gives you some hope for the future. Gives you some
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: hope that perhaps this could be a year where he
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: does big things. And I know the offensive roster is
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: not that great right now, but I do think they've
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: made improvements, especially on the offensive they brought in. I
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: think they're gonna have four new starters this year on
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: the offensive line, including the first round pick McKay Beckton,
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: who has a very high ceiling. If you look at
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: the defensive side of the ball, now there's not gonna
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: be Jamal Adams there and C. J. Mosley also opted
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: out of the season, so there are some major question marks.
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: You are bringing back Quinnin Williams, who's very promising player.
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: He was the third overall pick in ten. Greg Williams
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: did a great job last year the defensive coordinator. He
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: worked around a lot of the issues that Jets had.
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: He kind of adapted to players that he had. So
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: I think that there's a path to get to seven wins,
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: but they're also our issues. This is still not a
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: very good roster and you did lose Jamal at them,
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: so you know, I I don't. I think it's tough
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: to say. I think that can they get to seven wins? Yes?
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: Will they? I'm not so sure. It's hard to think
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: of Sam Donald and not think of what may have
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: been the most candid moment in the NFL last year
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: when on that Monday night football game, he's sitting on
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: the bench and he just said, after throwing one more
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: interception and getting pummeled. He just blatantly says, I'm seeing ghosts.
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: That was almost like you almost want to just reach
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: into the screen and hug the guy. Yeah, that was
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: a tough night for the Jets. I mean, nobody really
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: played well that night. But you have to remember that
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: came against the Patriot who had the top defense last year.
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: And I think it's worth noting. I mean, Sam Donald
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: is not the first twenty two year old quarterback to
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: be totally confused by Bill Belichick. No, that's true, and
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: like I know, he got better as the end of
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: the season went on, And like my bias year is
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: I am not a buyer on the Jets. I do
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: not think there are seven win team. I would take
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: the under in this one. But I also feel like, well,
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: the Jets played better at the end of the year.
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: If you look at the teams they played and the
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: teams that when they were winning, they weren't beating very
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: good teams. Like, where do you think the production for
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: this team comes from that could potentially get them to
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: seven wins? I think if it's going to happen, you're
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: gonna have to see about back year from Levian Bell
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: just gave him big money last year. He uh, of course,
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: famously held out of the twenty eight team season with
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: the Steelers. Came to the Jets and really did not produce.
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: But I'm not really sure how much of that was
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: his fault, because the offensive line was just the best
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: from the Jets last year from week one going forward.
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: So you're hoping that the additions they made on the
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: offensive line will at least make life a little bit
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: easier on Bell. They can lean on him a little
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: bit more in the run game. Also, they need to
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: utilize him better as a wide receiver. They really I
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: don't think they used his skills as well as they
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: could have last year by putting him into the slots
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: splitting him out wide at times. I think another guy
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: who's really going to have to step up for them
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: is Chris Herndon and was just a season for Herndon.
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: He began it with a four game suspension and then
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: read as he was about to return, he injured. He
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: had an injury, I believe with a hamstring injury. So
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: once he came off the suspended list, he was on
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: the bench. Her He finally came back for a game
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: against the Giants, had one catch and then suffered in
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: season ending injury there. But he's a guy who played
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: very well. He he played well as a rookie. He
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: developed good chemistry with Donald and another guy. I think
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: you looked to his Den deel Man's rookie out of Baylor.
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: Jet got him late second round. A lot of people
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: think that was a great value move. How much produce
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: as a rookie, I mean, that's the question. I think
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: if the Jet, I think for the Jet to get
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: the seven wins, guys are going to have to overachieve.
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: Guys are gonna have to beat expectations. But that's the path.
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: You know, whether it will happen again, you know, I'm
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: not sure I personally may take the under myself on
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: seven wins with the Jets. All right, John, Butcho from
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: the Lockdown Podcast Network, let me ask you one more question.
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: Last question, because this has been a tremendous debate along
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: with my colleagues Chris, Raybond and Stucky talking about the
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: a f C East, the value to win the division.
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: And you got the Bills, you got the Patriots, you
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: got the Dolphins, and you've got the Jets. We can
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: make a case for all of those teams except for
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: the Jets. Can you make a case for the Jets
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: to win the division? Objectively speaking, I think it's possible
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: if everything breaks right for the Jets, maybe some of
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: the some of the other teams have bad injury luck
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: to Jets have good injury luck. I think you always
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: have a NFL. If the guys I've mentioned step up
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: and have big seasons, then it could really impact the
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: Jets win total. But I think if you're looking at
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 1: this objectively, I mean New England and Buffalo right now
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: look like the class of this division. All right, John
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: Butcho Lockdown New York Jets podcast from the Lockdown Podcast Network.
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us on the Favorites Right pleasure. Thank
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: you to all of our listeners. This has been the
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: Favorites podcast from the Action Network. I Am Chad Milman.
• 1:05:54
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• 1:05:57
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• 1:06:00
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