Latest / Beliefs, Ballots, And BullDawgs / CFB WEEK 0 WINNERS

Transcript

CFB WEEK 0 WINNERS · Beliefs, Ballots, And BullDawgs

• Greg: What's up everybody and welcome back to Whiskey and Winners. Guys, I got some good news for you. College football is officially here. But before we get too far into this and too far down the road, I'd like to ask all you guys if ⁓ if you like what we're doing here, follow, subscribe, share the links, do all the things. I'm gonna keep coming back and doing this every week because I love college football and I kind of enjoy hanging out with these two knuckleheads. But if you appreciate what we're doing, and certainly if you make a little money along the way by following us, show us some love and leave us a little reward by liking, subscribing, sharing, get all your degenerate friends to do the same thing and ⁓ and we'll keep coming back week after week and ⁓ show some love to you guys by giving you some winners. ⁓ second point of note as we kind of do a little housekeeping here. I'm assuming that if you're paying attention to this and you're listening along, that you are likely not new to sports wagering. chad Bamaaaa: Yeah. Greg: ⁓ and therefore I'd also likely assume that you probably have a sports book or a place to get your action down. But if you don't, hit me up and I can ⁓ I can make some phone calls and get you hooked up with a little place you want to get some action down on ⁓ on week zero. ⁓ it is week zero, so we don't have a big slate. We've only got a handful of games, but that gives us a unique opportunity to do something a little bit different tonight, and we are going to go through every game on the board. Now. We are gonna tell you what we like, we're gonna tell you what we don't like, we're gonna talk about numbers that moved and numbers that are gone, and we're gonna tell you if we actually put a little bit of money on anything. But there's a big difference between having opinion and throwing some coin on a play. So make sure you pay attention between the differences, a lean and a play. So as we get ready to get started, grab a drink. We're gonna head over across the pond here and get started in Dublin shortly. But before we do, I gotta bring in the fellows that ⁓ that make this fun for me and find out what they're sipping on tonight so we know what's really important. Chad, I'm gonna assume as always, and you being a creature of habits, that you're gonna be sipping on a bud light and you're starting to look more and more like Dylan Mulvaney every damn time I see you. So ⁓ you might need to change it up a little bit. But tell me tell me how you do it, Chad. chad Bamaaaa: It is Nah, it is but light but I gotta turn the label around because ⁓ YouTube likes to cut you off. Greg: Yeah. All right, Brian. I know you're I know you're a real man, so I'm gonna assume you're drinking some ⁓ some nice brown smoothness in that glass. Tell me ⁓ tell me what you got that you're sipping on, brother. Brian: I'm sipping on some Weller one ⁓ seven. It's a ⁓ staple, especially during football season. I know that doesn't really include the whiskey, but that's a ⁓ FSU colored label. It's from Buffalo Tray, six to eight year mash bill, very sweet whiskey. If you get a chance to try it, it's ⁓ it's awesome. Greg: I was ⁓ I was just thinking to ask you for those of us that are that are not the bourbon experts. Yeah, I was gonna t ask you to tell us which color label that is for those of us that might not have known. All right, guys, as we get started, we're gonna go in chronological order here today. We are gonna start across the pond in Dublin, Ireland, where it seems like for the last few years, weird stuff goes to happen. ⁓ last time I was looking, that number's hovering around. TCU eight and a half, nine, nine and a half. We got us an over, under around forty seven, forty seven and a half. ⁓ looks like Brian's having some internet issues. So, Chad, I'm gonna start with you. Chad, tell me, tell me what you got. Give me some thoughts on that UNC TCU game. chad Bamaaaa: Yeah, so this game here, Ireland, it's roughly a seven to eight hour flight. these kids are dealing with a completely different like just body clock. Even if they get there a week early, get an adjustment, it's it's different. I think the game kicks off at three, no, what is it, ⁓ five PM their time, but d there's like a six or seven hour difference. So I feel bad for the kids. It's a rough journey across the pond. I've got UNC plus eight. ⁓ I think this is going to be a very low scoring affair based off of the travel. ⁓ if we're doing analysis now we can jump into that or if we want to do just a quick this is what it is. You tell me which one to go. Greg: So you ⁓ you told me in advance, you've ⁓ since it's a light slate, you said you're gonna play everything on the board. So we'll know that anything you're talking about is an actual play. ⁓ as I'm looking at the board, I can get you UNC plus the nine and a half. So for the records, we'll give you nine and a half for your play on UNC. ⁓ you know, the the line move on that one early, you know, at at six and a half, I was struggling with it because I everything in me tells me TCU wins this game. I tell you at six and a half, I probably would have played TCU and laid it under a touchdown. At nine and a half, I'm will probably stay away, but I I would lean towards UNC plus the points. ⁓ and probably a small lean on the under just because weird stuff happens over there in Ireland. And I would suspect one, if not both, of these offenses will struggle a little bit over there early in the season. Brian, it looks like we've got some ⁓ some visual and possibly an internet connection back there in the middle of nowhere where you live. You got any thoughts on this game? Brian: Yeah, if you yeah, if you can hear me, I I l lost connection. But ⁓ this is like he said, going across the pond. It's ⁓ it's gonna be a tough ⁓ game for everybody. I mean, last year TCU smoked UNC in Chapel Hill. ⁓ typically when they play in in the ⁓ Ireland game, the underdog does is pretty successful. They're taking ⁓ an offense over there from last year that was ranked 129th in the country. But they're turning that offense over to Bobby Petrino, which everybody knows whether you like him or not, Bobby Petrino's gonna have a decent offense for college football. So TCU has also got a new offensive coordinator in Gordon Sammy's. He came from Utah, I mean from UConn. It's a lot slower pace. chad Bamaaaa: Greg, I'm gonna pick it up since he dropped. Can you hear me? Alright, so I'm gonna give you the ⁓ the model. I've got TCU twenty eight UN C Brian: So I will take ⁓ the ⁓ under twenty four and a half for the first half in this game. Greg: All right. Cad, go ahead and chime in what you were gonna give us. chad Bamaaaa: Alright, so guys, my models, The Sims, I've got ⁓ the score. I ran it five thousand times. I got TCU twenty-eight, UNC twenty one. TCU wins sixty-nine percent of the time. ⁓ UNC plus eight covers fifty six percent of the time. I've got a push at five percent of the time. TCU we know is a better team. We all know that. Like everyone looked at it and like, ⁓ better team. But this is a normal game. I mean it's eight hours across the Atlantic. It's six hours ahead of time. ⁓ I think it gets off to a slow start. Greg: Yeah, trying trying to read the line movement. You know, it that that line starting at six and a half. I think the sharks hammered it. I think it's at at a unplayable number now if you wanted to play TCU. I'm with you. I kept running my models. I you you got 2821. My my average score keeps coming around 2720. I I I'm I'm right there with you guys. I th I think it's I I think the lean, you know, the plays for me, if I had to play it would be T C it would be UNC plus the points and the under. chad Bamaaaa: I think I think it's good about it. Brian: This is killing me. chad Bamaaaa: Yeah. That's why. Greg: Chad, I know you've got to play. We'll we'll we'll circle back on this and ⁓ make sure everybody gets the the final plays when we do the recap. ⁓ but yeah, that that line movement's ⁓ that's a big deal going from six and a half to nine and a half. And and as it stands now, I think I think UNC is the right side, ⁓ but I think TCU wins the game. We'll move on to ⁓ to the second game. We've got three PM game on NBC, got the San Jose State Spartans at the USC Trojans. Brian: Mm-hmm. chad Bamaaaa: Absolutely. Greg: Huge line last I saw was Southern Cal favor by thirty nine and a half over under sixty and a half. That's a big number, Brian. What's you ⁓ what's your thoughts on that game? chad Bamaaaa: Ha ha ha. ⁓ no, we got yeah, I'll pick it up, man. I've got ⁓ I'm taking plus thirty-eight. That's a lot of ⁓ a lot of numbers, Greg. That's a lot of points. You and I have been doing this a long time. Thirty-eight. I've actually got that put in a teaser. We can talk about laser, but ⁓ USC finished last year nine and four in twenty twenty five, seven and two in the Big Ten play. Greg: All right, Brian is AWOL again. Chad, what you got? chad Bamaaaa: ⁓ what what's important here though, Luke Weaver is a confirmed starter. So I'm I'm taking the points. I think it's it's all the way it's for me it's you either take the point or you pass. My models say it's a sixty two percent take it and ⁓ it's a cover. Greg: Yeah, I I I'm with you if if this is another one of those I I'm I'm passing on this. If I if I had to make a play, I would certainly take the I I see ⁓ up to thirty, thirty-eight and a half now. Looks like all the thirty-nine and a halves are gone. ⁓ yeah, I'm with you. I I you take the San Jose State plus thirty-eight and a half and hope for a backdoor cover along the way. ⁓ as I dig into this, there may be some team total options. I know USC's gonna try to run it up. I know Lincoln Riley wants to throw it all over the place and they're gonna try to get their points. chad Bamaaaa: Sure. Yes. Greg: ⁓ so there may be a team total Southern Cal play that might be something we could we could look into. ⁓ but it it's it's a pass for me, but I'm I'm with you on the lean. I agree with you. I would think that taking the 38 and a half would be would be the right way to go. And and the the totals right there, my model keeps coming up with somewhere around 49 to 10. So that total of 60 and a half, I don't have any real value on it. ⁓ I would probably just because of Southern Cal, I'd probably take the over. chad Bamaaaa: Yeah. Greg: Just assuming that if San Jose State covers the thirty eight and a half, it's probably on a backdoor cover at the end where somehow they get to fourteen or seventeen and that probably goes over the total. chad Bamaaaa: Yeah, so my model hit thirty-eight ⁓ USC to ten, which is why I'm so like just all over the thirty plus thirty eight. Like I mean it I I mean I believe UFC wins a game. I'm just betting that San Jose State gosh, I'm betting UFC doesn't need to win at this point by thirty nine. I I think maybe they take some people out, recover, rest. Greg: Yeah, that'd be chad Bamaaaa: and ⁓ wait for the next week because everybody knows, like, even the big name teams, the first game they play is always a lay down. Look at Georgia's first game, look at Alabama's first game. They're all like gimmies. And ⁓ in this game I feel the same way, but on my model, US C wins ninety seven percent of the time. Greg: Brian, ⁓ San Jose State at Southern Cal, do you have opinions and are you capable of sharing them with us? Brian: Yes, I've reset my internet, so I hope I'm good to go now. ⁓ USC San Jose, like he said, usually in the beginning of the year you never know, but typically that's gonna go the way Chad was talking, but on a Lincoln Riley team, he's known to run the score up on the ⁓ at the beginning of the year. So he averages sixty one points a game in their first game against a team of an inferior competition like that. So And one thing people might not know is they brought in Gary Patterson as their DC this year, which is very overqualified for that job. So I think their defense is going to be better than a typical Lincoln Riley defense because you got a head coach coaching their defense this year. I feel like he's gonna put put s a lot of pressure on San Jose, which is gonna try to run a fast paced offense, which also leads to a high scoring ballgame. ⁓ the last two years Against teams like that, they beat Missouri State seventy-three to thirteen. They beat Georgia Southern fifty-nine to twenty. So my play on this ball game, I feel like they're gonna have the gas pedal on them and it's gonna they're gonna especially be on the gas pedal early. I'm gonna take USC as a team total over twenty-seven and a half for the first half. chad Bamaaaa: Yeah. ⁓ smart man. Greg: Right. Solid. I like that look a lot. chad Bamaaaa: Brian, what do you think the total ends up being? The the the total score? Brian: All right, I got one little thing on that. So the ⁓ it opened at 55 and a half. It quickly went up to 60 and a half. This is what worries me about the total. You got 92% of the tickets are coming in on the under. So that ought tells a gambler that's been at this a long time, the big money's coming in on the over. So to me, I would have to I'd have to lean towards the over just following the number. Greg: I don't I don't have a play on it that I'd pull the trigger on yet, but I'm with you, Brian. I I I'm seeing an over at DraftKing right now at 59 and a half. And I'm telling you, I I think Southern Cow may get to 50 by themselves. And San Jose State is gonna get the double digits, maybe 13 or 17 on a late touchdown. I I hadn't made it an official play yet, but it but my lead is to that over at 59 and a half. I might make a play on the over, even though I hadn't fired yet. chad Bamaaaa: Gosh, it's you just you just never know how these teams are gonna come out the first week. I mean it's the first week, guys, and so many teams are traveling. It's like this is a crapshoot, but we're trying to make the best out of what we can given the last year's numbers and our models. Brian: First weeks first and first weeks now are a lot harder than they used to be 'cause you got fifty or sixty players on every team new because of the transfers, so it definitely makes it difficult. Greg: That's it. That's the name of the game. chad Bamaaaa: Yep, and the card and the card sucks. I mean honestly, like I can't believe they did not pump this up and make the first week a little better going to the weekend. Brian: Ha ha. Mm. Greg: All right, we move on to the 330 game at on ESPN. We got NC State Wolfpack at the Virginia Cavaliers. ⁓ the numbers I'm seeing right now, I got Virginia minus four and a half. I see some three and a half over under. Looks like he's sitting right at 51 and a half across the board. ⁓ I'm gonna tell you, I got a play on this one. I'm gonna go ahead and throw this out there and then go to you guys. Give me the Wolf Pack plus the four, four and a half, whatever you can get it at, as long as it's north of three. I like the Wolf Pack in this one. I think that's a sneaky, underrated team. I like CJ Bailey at quarterback. Give me ⁓ give me NC State to keep this one close within the four, four and a half. And and I I think that's ⁓ I think that's a winner. And I know we might ⁓ we might be circling back to some NC State love later on in the show as a little ⁓ little fair warning for some of you guys. chad Bamaaaa: Yeah. Yeah, yeah. Greg: Brian, what's your ⁓ what's your thoughts on NC State in Virginia? Brian: I'm with you with NC State. I feel like that they are have a good team. One thing that we probably didn't talk about that we should probably talk about was originally this game was scheduled to be in Brazil. So but that game got moved now to Charlottesville. I feel like that's not a bad thing for either one of them. A couple stats I can give everybody out there is Dave Doran is four and ⁓ straight up and against the spread in his last four games against NC against ⁓ Virginia. And three or four of those wins are by double digits. So I like, like you said, CJ Bailey. I feel like he's a good quarterback. One name I'm gonna give everybody out there, I did some some looking at, and ⁓ you'll hear a lot about him this year, especially with Hollywood Smothers transferring to ⁓ Texas, is ⁓ Jaden Duke Scott. I don't know if y'all will look at that or not, but he was ⁓ named to the ⁓ Bruce Feldman's Freaks list. So he's a 510, 223 pound running back. He runs a 435-40, 405 power clean, a 575 squat, and a 38 and a half inch vertical. Last year they yeah, last year they ran the ball 216 yards against Virginia. So I don't have official play in this game. Or I do have official play. My official play on this game is gonna be an under 53 and a half. I feel like they both want to run the football. And I think they're gonna run the football. chad Bamaaaa: Is that Herschel Walter? Brian: But one thing I will be looking at is Duke Scott's rushing yards at sixty six and a half. Greg: Catch it. Yeah, and I think a lot of it too is a and ⁓ Virginia was a feel-good story last year. They they they overachieved massively, in my opinion. And I ⁓ I know we all as professional cappers try not to do it, but every one of us is guilty of rolling stuff from one year to the next. I think part of last year's success for Virginia is baked into this number. I just don't think they're a better team than than NC State. I think it's a pretty even matchup. So if I'm getting four, four and a half points, I I I'm liking that. ⁓ and I'm with you, Brad. I I think it's an under game. My models keep having this game. I I think I keep seeing like twenty four, twenty three, that kind that kind of score showing up on all my models. So I'm with ya. I I I I got a play on NC State. I got ⁓ at plus four and a half and I would lean on that under as well. Chad, what ⁓ Chad, what you like in that game? chad Bamaaaa: ⁓ the email I sent to you was I like the under forty-eight for sure because I agree with everything Brian just said. Everything that he said, probably sixty percent of it I'd already read. And I'm actually gonna do something crazy here. I don't want the points. I'm gonna take I'm gonna take I want the money line. Greg: All right. Yeah, about one hundred eighty five or so. Brian: Yeah, plus one eighty five is what I see. chad Bamaaaa: Plus one eighty five. Yeah, I've got North ⁓ Carol State money line as a dog. The point it's it's plus one eighty five. That's what I like. I think if it's a four, guys, if we're looking at a four to five point game and we've got a good rushing game, I've learned ⁓ from a long time ago. I used to always look for like which favorite can win. Now I'm always always looking for like which underdog has the most value in the points? And ⁓ I think they went out right. So I'm taking a money line. And that's in my parlay as well. Greg: I don't hate it at all. I ⁓ like I said I'm I'm gonna take ⁓ plus the four and a half. I I I will not be surprised at all if they win that game. All right, let's move on to Go ahead, B. Brian: Said keep keep keep a eye on Duke Scott keep an eye on Duke Scott in that game. He's a player. chad Bamaaaa: Hey, the only thing I do want to say is Greg: I've chad Bamaaaa: Just in my opinion, the five and like right now it's five and a half. Like ⁓ at my place where I go, my model says it's a three point game. And that's ⁓ running it five thousand times. Actually I ran it two more times after that. And ⁓ basically it's leaning me toward ⁓ NC State guys. So I'm gonna trust everything that I've built and I'm gonna go from there. So that's where I'm at. Brian: I like it. Greg: Yeah, that's that's weird too. I'm seeing three and a halves across the board, but one lone five and a half is sitting out there that I'm seeing. That's that's yeah, I grabbed that five and a half for sure if I if chad Bamaaaa: Yeah, I don't want to say the the s the place I'm using until they pay me. But ⁓ it's at five right now. Five and a half. Greg: All right. Let's move on. 530 on CBS. We got Jacksonville State at North Dakota State. ⁓ I'm looking at right now we got ⁓ six and a half, seven and a half for North Dakota State is a favorite. Over unders 46 and a half some 47s out there. ⁓ yeah, I think a lot of this, you know, everybody talk North Carolina or North Dakota State bumping up the in competition this year. Just my personal opinion. I kind of think if they'd been in this league already a few years, this wouldn't be only a seven-point spread. I think it'd be double touchdowns. I think it'd be closer to 13 or 14. Look, I may be missing something. I I think North Dakota State is a superior football team across the board. I got them at six and a half as an official play. It I'm seeing sevens and seven and a half now. If you can hang around, I think that six and a half will pop again. I love North Co North Dakota State at home minus six and a half in this one. Chad, what's your thoughts? chad Bamaaaa: Yeah. I've gone back and forth with this. Actually, my lean is the under forty eight in ⁓ this game. Greg: I agree. chad Bamaaaa: i it's the under. I mean yes, I think they're great. Look, I've got a laundry list of stats I can give you, quarterbacks, rushing yards, both teams now moving up. But when you move up in divisions, ⁓ you move up in like different caliber guys. Like I was re I won't get in that, but d it's different. And once you start playing against a bigger team, bigger guys that are the same size, faster than you, ⁓ the game can slow down considerably. And ⁓ that's why I think the ⁓ under is a play here. Greg: Don't disagree. Brian, what's your ⁓ what's your thoughts on Jacksonville State, North Dakota State? Brian: I'm not seeing the same thing you're seeing. I think that's all hype from the FCS. I know the Fargo Dome's a good place to play. You're going to give seven and a half points or some of the lines I've seen to a team playing their first game against a team that went nine and four last year, nine and five last year, went as a bowl team. Jacksonville State, I agree. They got a new offensive quarter, new new offensive line coach. They lost the nation's leading rusher to West Virginia and Cam Cook. I think both teams play the same way. They're going to grind the clock out. So I lose like Chad's underplay. Jacksonville State's defense is the strongest unit on the field, in my opinion. So if I was to lean, I'm leaning. I'm not putting anything in that game because I there's too many unknowns, and I think that crowd and the Fargo Dome is going to be crazy and make it tough. I would lean Jacksonville State plus seven and a half if it was me. chad Bamaaaa: Agree. ⁓ Greg: Yeah, I ⁓ I would certainly probably have second thoughts on laying the seven and a half. I grabbed the six and a half. I honestly I I think North Dakota State covers six and a half, seven and a half. I think they win by double digits. ⁓ but but as far as betting it through that number, I don't know that I would feel as confident and lay I wouldn't lay the same amount at seven and a half that I did at six and a half, I can promise you that. chad Bamaaaa: I do too. Yeah. Yeah, for sure. Greg: ⁓ but I'm with I'm both of you guys too. I do I do lean the under on that. I think it'll be a slow paced game. ⁓ I think my models kept showing it being you know, I think I got like twenty seven seventeen is kind of an average score. I I think it keeps it well under fifty. All right, moving on to a game that I know nothing about, and I'm gonna just pretend like I do. 6 30 p.m. on ESPN Plus. We got Sacramento State at Eastern Michigan. Eastern Michigan minus nine and a half last I saw. Total floating around 54, 54 and a half. ⁓ I don't know anything about much of either one of these teams. I believe Eastern Michigan is green, so I I do have that going for me. ⁓ but I'm gonna defer to Chad, say, Chad, I want you to give me an absolute stone cold lock winner on this piece of shit bat football game. chad Bamaaaa: Well, you know where ⁓ my money usually goes and it's these all teams. ⁓ I am Yeah, I'm on ⁓ Sacramento State plus nine and a half, but I've bought the hook down to nine. ⁓ EMU ⁓ they are they're allowing twenty nine point eights per game and ⁓ the biggest defensive problem in their thing, EMU gave up roughly two hundred and thirty two rushing yards. Greg: Make the point. chad Bamaaaa: ⁓ game ⁓ one of the worst run defenses in the country guys I didn't say like in the like southeast northeast what I in the country they have the worst run defense that matters that's a huge thing so I mean give me the point I'm gonna go with it so I'm all over it my models got it at ⁓ you win sixty four percent of the time But Sacramento covers sixty four percent of the time, which is a weird thing to hear. So I'm rolling with my models, I trust everything I've built into it. ⁓ that's where I'm going. Greg: I I I'm with you. I I mean again, this is not one I can pretend to have any sort of real knowledge on. ⁓ I I do tend to say, look, when in doubt on especially in college sports, take the underdog, take the unders. It should be a 50-50 proposition, but I swear unders and underdogs hit more than overs and favorites. Brian, give us ⁓ give us something insightful on Sacramento State Eastern Mission. Be one of the three of us that actually knows something worthwhile. Brian: I had to dig into this a little bit and ⁓ listen to some other stuff and reading. Sacramento State by no means was ready to make this jump. So one thing that they offered to go ahead and be in the FBS, if anybody knows this, y'all might have knew this. They're paying for the road travel for everybody that comes to Sacramento State to play them. They're paying all the the travel fees for the teams they're playing against to be able to come up. So anyhow. chad Bamaaaa: Yeah. Didn't know that. Yeah. Brian: This game is not at Sacramento State, it's at Eastern Michigan. And ⁓ they Sacramento State's been known to run the ball, so that's one thing that might go to help Chad out with that because they will run and eastern Michigan's not good against the run. The only things I could find is that they they lean heavily on the run. They have a lot of transfer players. Their best players probably came from Miami and Colorado, which is a decent program, but not where you really want to be. They're playing on the road at Rice Near Stadium, which y'all probably have seen it on the field because they're the infamous gray turf field. So I would lean. I didn't play like a play in this game because I have no idea where to. put my money at on this game. If I was leaning somewhere, it would be to the under fifty three and a half. Or there's a little bit, a couple of lines out there I looked at, Sack State plus three and a half for the first quarter. Cause I think they're gonna give you everything they got for that first quarter and then that's probably about it. chad Bamaaaa: Have you guys ever noticed let's let's call it ten years ago, you're watching a game and it's got this weird turf color. The game always went over. Greg: All right. Brian: That's a good stat. chad Bamaaaa: Am I right or wrong? I mean honestly. Like you're looking at this weird ass turf and it's Greg: Boise the blue turf went over a lot. ⁓ Brian, I'm gonna do you and all of our listeners a solid. I don't care what kind of degenerate if you are, if you're having to dig dig down into quarter lines of totals for Sack State, Eastern Michigan, brother, just find a different game to bet on. You don't need action that bad. chad Bamaaaa: Yeah. Yeah. Just pass. Yeah, pass on that shit. Greg: Hi, I I I am making an exec I I'm making an executive decision. Nowhere on the recap screen will any first quarter BS of Eastern Michigan and Sacramento State show up. Brian: Hey, you you told me to leg it dig in and find something until I found something. That'll be the one hey, that'll be the one that hits. chad Bamaaaa: Degenerate. Hey, I'm actually I bet it behind Brian. I bet it behind Brian. Like I trusted him, so I'm riding with him. I probably I've probably got thirteen bets already. And it's only like a eight game slate. Greg: ⁓ Well well that is That is That is such a stupendously horrific college football match that we just had to talk about. That I'm now actually excited to talk about Hawaii and Stanford. And that's saying something. Hawaii and Stanford, seven o'clock on the ACC network. I'm seeing Stanford minus three and a half, four. I'm seeing totals at 48, 48 and a half, a couple of 49s. ⁓ this is another one. I I I got to play. Give me Hawaii plus I got it at four and a half earlier. Give me the four, whatever you can grab. ⁓ again. I you got to convince me why Stanford's a more than a field goal favorite against anybody. I don't care if they're playing in Stanford, on the moon, wherever they're playing. Stanford ain't no damn good. Give me Hawaii plus the four and a half. Chad, what are your thoughts over there? chad Bamaaaa: I take a breath on that one. I went moneyline. I'm taking Hawaii moneyline. And I'll tell you why. I know they're plus five. I don't want the point. ⁓ Warren has been the been the biggest powerhouse in the in the pedigree, like but it's it's a new Stanford like situation. Th s things have changed. Hawaii beat Stanford twenty three to twenty. last year it was like twenty seven of thirty nine for ⁓ two hundred and ten yards and Michael Ford rushed for a hundred and thirteen yards and twenty six twenty six carries. For me, Stanford's gonna win the game. I I I do think Stanford's gonna win the game. But Greg: Then why are you taking a wide money line, dunas? chad Bamaaaa: Because the line is so close that I feel like it is worth the gamble. I told you I'm not the guy that's gonna bet if it's minus four or five, I'm taking the shark. You know, I'm not doing that. But I'm taking the returning quarterback and the points against a new Stanford quarterback. You forget, Stanford has a new quarterback coming in. This looks like another one score game. So why would it not? Greg: I I do. It And I'm I'm gonna I I'm gonna one hundred percent rely on Brian to be smart enough to take the points with Hawaii and follow my lead on this one and not go not go crazy. I think Hawaii might win the game. I don't think you're wrong, ⁓ but I absolutely have to call you out if you say Stanford's gonna win the game by taking Hawaii money line. That's ⁓ Brian: Right about ⁓ chad Bamaaaa: Well no, I do if if Stanford won, I would not be surprised. But I'm saying it's a it's a you have a different quarterback. So I'm gonna I'm gambling. I'm putting my money. Greg: You made you make Brian finish his bourbon with that shit, Chad. Brian: I got more. About about that Stanford quarterback. It's ⁓ Davis Warren. Y'all remember him? He beat Ohio State when he was at Michigan in twenty twenty four. Got a new coach, Travita Pritchard. He was ⁓ Andrew Luck's teammate at Stanford in two thousand eight, two thousand nine. So you already know what kind of offense they're looking at running. They're going to the Jim Harbaugh, ground it out, don't throw the ball ten or twelve times a game, rely on your defense game. Greg: Mm-hmm. Brian: I don't know that that's where they're at yet, but that's where they're planning to go. So to me, I'm staying away from any sides or anything in this game. If I was to bet this game, I would take the under 49 and a half just because it's a week zero game and I already know what Stanford is trying to do is grind the clock out. Hawaii typically does not do very well when they come on the road. So If I I'm not making a play, but if I leaned away, it would be to the under forty nine and a half. Greg: Yeah, my model says the under was the play as well. I I I definitely don't see this one getting into some sort of shootout. Chad, you got a ⁓ you got a feeling on the total? chad Bamaaaa: I do. Actually, that's I was gonna throw a hey, give me a second. My model, I ran it four times. Stanford twenty seven, Hawaii twenty four. And you're like, Well, Chad, why are you still taking Hawaii plus points? It's a football game. No, excuse me. If I'm just taking the money line. And if I'm not I'm taking points, I still think Hawaii wins this game. Even though ⁓ my model shows twenty seven to twenty four. Greg: Well covers. chad Bamaaaa: I think it's such a close of a game. The four to five points, I'm willing to lay that and run with it. But that's just me. Do what you do with your ⁓ with your own money. Greg: Yeah. Yeah, you and I are I I think we're right there on the spread. Like I I think it'll be I mean, that's why I have to take the four points. I just don't see either one of these teams winning by more of a field goal at the end. I I just think it's gonna be a little more low scoring than you. But again, early in the season it's just it's just really hard to tell. But the good news is he go ahead, B. Brian: Well, it opened I'm saying it opened, you know, around six and it got hammered quickly. So that's the reason it got down to three and a half and that scares me a little bit. chad Bamaaaa: And that tell that that makes me think a little bit of a low scoring game when it gets dropped down like that. Greg: I I think it will be my my model keeps coming up with like twenty three, twenty one, twenty four, twenty two type scores. I I've got Stanford I got Stanford squeaking it out ⁓ in most of mine, but but I I got Hawaii covering more often than not. chad Bamaaaa: So close, yeah. All right, so if it's a squeak game, which earlier you said like Chad, you said this, but and Hawaii I'm saying, dude, if it's so close, fuck the points. I mean, let's just run it money line and ⁓ let's make the extra money. Like I there's so many bets on the board, I'm okay if it loses. Greg: If if it If it was two and a half, I'd be playing at plus one forty moneyline, but I'm not I'm not passing up three and a half or four points. chad Bamaaaa: You would know something about well I I had it at follow up at some point. Brian: I'd I'd lean ⁓ I'd lean under. I'd lean under. chad Bamaaaa: Mm. For sure. Greg: All so we got some disagreement on that. That makes for some ⁓ some interesting follow-ups when we come back to the recap. But now we get to move on to a seven o'clock game. Hey, Brian, why is your football team playing on the CW? But anyway, we'll get back to that. We had a game that one of us actually knows something about. My boy's ⁓ is about as plugged into the Florida State program as you got, so ⁓ we ought to get some insider information on this. We ought to find out how in the hell they go beat anybody by 32 points. chad Bamaaaa: That's okay. Greg: I got a minus thirty-one and a half. I saw some thirty and a half pop up. Total sitting around fifty-three and a half, fifty-four. ⁓ I I can't get down on this ground as much as I want to, just because of you and I. I I want to have some action on Florida State. I can't time in anything money line because there's no value on that crap at all. I can't lay 30 points with the Seminoles against anybody at the at the moment. I look, Ashton Daniels may go on the wind of Heisman. We're all praying for you, B. I I know it's good, but thirty Thirty one and a half, thirty and a half. That that's that's a monster number. I can't get there. ⁓ ch Chad, we're gonna we're gonna let you hang in last. We're gonna let Brian go first as he's he's plugged into the program B. Tell me tell me what we should be looking for Saturday night on the CW. chad Bamaaaa: Thank you. Brian: ⁓ to your first question. We're playing on a C W 'cause we won seven games in two years and we have not won a road game in two years. So there you go. So Greg: I wanna say the last time I was tuned into the CW I was in college and I think I was watching Buffy the Vampire Slayer. Brian: Well, we have a a bad track on the CW because that's when Jordan that's when ⁓ Jordan Travis broke his leg and we got snubbed out of the ⁓ playoff, but we'll that's for conversation for another day. ⁓ this is a huge, massive talent gap, obviously. That's the reason it's thirty one. Heavy money came in on FSU, sixty six percent at the beginning. I mean seventy percent came in on FSU. Right now, sixty six percent of the money's on New Mexico State plus thirty one and a half. I think that FSU, knowing that on Labor Day night they play SMU, this is going to be the most vanilla looking offense that you ever seen. It's going to be run, slants, quick stuff. It's not. FSU's got 50 new players, got 50 new starters on the offensive line. That's the reason that I wouldn't you wouldn't want to bet the 31 when you've got 50 new players in there. So I'm with you on that. I think this could be a good game to look at live betting 'cause if if ⁓ New Mexico State was to get a early score and you're able to get FSU at a lower number or Florida State jumps out on ⁓ New Mexico State and you're able to get them at a in the plus thirty eight, plus forty something range, that might be a good good way to go with that. ⁓ I feel like that Florida State, you know, on the first games, Norvell is is known for jumping out on the team and ⁓ and scoring a lot of points. That's why I stayed that way. My official play on this game will be FSU minus 18 and a half for the first half. After the first half, I feel like San Jose, not San Jose, I feel like New Mexico is going to kind of meld it in as well. Florida State's gonna be trying to get it ready for the SMU game. We are not deep. at all. We have no depth, especially on the defensive line. So we're going to try to get those starters out of the ball game, try to get them ready for the SMU game. It's going to be a grind the clock type of game. So I think the the majority of the action is going to be in the first half. So my official play like I said is going to be the minus 18 and a half on the first half. One thing I will give everybody out there, if you like prop bits, look at Usmane Chromar for over 75 and a half rushing yards. and over a half of a touchdown. He's had an excellent camp spring and fall. He will be your starting running back for Florida State. New Mexico State cannot stop the run. Boostman Cromwell, if they keep him in the ballgame, we'll go over that 75 pretty quickly and he'll definitely get a touchdown. So those are two to look at, but my official play will be Florida State minus 18 and a half for the first half. Greg: I I I I really like the Cromw touchdown prop. I I'd hesitate on the yard just 'cause this can get out of hand. I just don't know how much they're gonna want to feed him to get to that number, ⁓ which really boils into why I can't make a play on this, because there's there's a part of me that can justify go, hey, Florida State can win this game by fifty, and they might want to because it's been a rough couple of years. But then like you said, th the it doesn't do ⁓ any good to go out there and win this game by fifty and then lay an egg later. So it's just it's just a hard thing for me to predict. This is one of those I you can clearly see at at some point, like you said, either right before halftime or early in the third quarter, it's 35 to seven type game. And then just from there, it doesn't matter anymore and you just don't know what's gonna happen. And from that point on, that's why I just you know, it may be worth a sprinkle live, like you said, if you see something fluky one way or another and you can get a good number. I just I I can't lay the points and and I can't take the points because I know Florida State can outtown them and win by fifty if they want to. Chad, where ⁓ where are you going on this one? chad Bamaaaa: FSU absolutely wins. We know that. ⁓ but I don't think they they win by 32 every time. ⁓ so my model and the Sims, I re ran it again today. Final score shows 45 to 10. ⁓ I'm still tricking a few things. Final score it shows at ⁓ thirty nine FSU. Brian: Well you hope. chad Bamaaaa: ⁓ New Mexico State eleven. FSU wins ninety nine percent of the time. Mexico State one percent. New Mexico State covers fifty five percent of the time. ⁓ I'm be honest with you, I'm taking the points. I'm I'm that's pretty good, yeah. Greg: Yeah, I I I mean I my model keeps coming up with like for forty two to ten type things. I I think the numbers right on ⁓ I just on principle, it it I know one thing. I it when it comes to college football especially, it is a whole lot easier to take thirty and a half than to lay it. I don't care who's playing. Brian: I think there's a good shot that we both win, Chad. I think there's a good shot I hit the first half and then you cover it at the end. chad Bamaaaa: I'd rather take it. I think it is I like I like your half bets because they're they're they're a little they're a little more safe versus my long like God Kenny's guys plus 31 cover. I'm I really believe my models, I believe everything I put into the work. So that's why I've bet every game that I say tonight, that's I'm on it. Like I've got I've got cash on it. So that's where at with Brian: I'm always I'm always gonna lean to the ⁓ halves, especially in week zero and week Greg: All right, let's move on to the nightcap. 10 o'clock. We've got Memphis at UNLV on Fox. ⁓ the last number I saw had UNLV minus four and a half. I had the total was 56 and a half. ⁓ this is another one, guys. I'm gonna tell you, I'm all over Memphis plus the four and a half. it's probably my favorite play. That the NC State player, the probably the two ⁓ with the ⁓ North Dakota State minus six and a half is is a slightly below that. ⁓ but I I I love Memphis plus the four and a half ⁓ at UNLV. Brian, what's your thoughts on this one? Brian: I can get you Memphis plus five and a half 'cause that's what I got it at earlier. I'll take it's gonna be tight. This is gonna be a high scoring b ball game. I mean, I feel like U and L V has a very good chance to represent the Power Six I mean not the Powers the group of six in the ⁓ playoff, but so does Memphis. Memphis obviously lost their head coach to Arkansas and Ryan Silverfield, but Charles Huff, he's not he's not Greg: Well, I'll take it for record keeping. I I'm already locked in on four and a half, but I'll take it for the for the show. Brian: The greatest coach, but he did bring a couple of good coordinators in with him. I think that this game right here is gonna be probably the best game of the weekend as far as play type. They're gonna be going at it. This is basically a group of six elimination game. If you lose this game, you're out. So this game opened at sixty and a half for the total, and it got quickly hammered down to fifty-six and a half. U and L V can score, but their defense last year is Greg: I agree. Brian: Terrible. They gave up 28 points a game. If I was going to bet the on the on the ⁓ the side, I would lean towards the over in this game. I'm not going to make that part official, but I will take Memphis plus five and a half. I feel like this you you may hear some of this later on in the podcast, but damn, I'm gonna back Dan Mullen's probably gonna win the ball game. But I'm if you give me Memphis plus five and a half, I'm gonna take that in a shootout. Greg: Yeah, I I think you got to. I I'm with you there. Chad, what you got? chad Bamaaaa: I agree. I I like the point. ⁓ I didn't put that in my official plays. That's a lane. I would go with that. What I saw earlier was plus four and a half, but my strongest play out of everything is the over in this game. I like it over straight up. I like it over in a teaser. I'm gonna give you a quick rundown of what I've got in front of me. ⁓ For me, this is the biggest bet pretty much on a roster. Ninety nine ⁓ percent of previous passing production, one hundred percent of rushing production, eighty-eight point five percent receiving receiving production, quarterback Memphis still working through Marcus Stokes versus Air Noland. I mean where are we at with that guys? The competition has kind of remained like active and entertaining. I don't know. Why I'm still taking ⁓ I think Charles Huff brought in seventeen transfers. Did you guys know that? Brian: I was gonna ⁓ mention that, Chad, when you was talking about that, that you're gonna hear things out there that people say, ⁓ Memphis is only returning one starter, da da da da da. Well, Charles Huff's a new coach, yeah, he brought his starters with him. So Greg: Mm-hmm. Adiós. Only one of their starters. chad Bamaaaa: He did. Yeah. So we're looking at 17 transferred, including major defensive additions. So with that, I mean fourth nationally in takeaways last season. Fourth nationally in takeaways? That's huge. ⁓ my model has this game at UNLV 31 Memphis 27. guys. I'm all over the over. I'm gonna bet you over. I'm gonna tease you over, whatever it comes to. UNLV is a better team. We know it. Y'all know that. Memphis has a new coach, a ton of transfers and a defense that was fourth nationally in takeaways last year, which is little scary. ⁓ but that's where I'm leaning. Greg: All right. Well well for the for the poor souls that are trying to follow along and ⁓ make some money listening to this, I am ⁓ I am quite certain at this point we have probably officially talked them into and out of about every play on the board. So before we start doing any kind of irresponsible parlays and teasers and all the fun stuff, Brian, help me ⁓ help me go through a recap screen. Everybody, let's let's try to give up our our like legit actual plays so we don't confuse anybody with the leans. ⁓ so let's go back through real quick and just talk about what what we're actually on. Brian, I'll let you start us off. What's what's your actual please for for the slate so far? Brian: Just mine or you want everybody? Alright, mine was TCU UNC under 24 and a half for the first half. USC team total over 27 and a half for the first half. North Carolina State, Virginia under 53 and a half. FSU minus 18 and a half for the first half. Memphis plus five and a half. And then one I haven't talked about yet. I'll have to give you that in the Greg: Yeah, just go for just yours right now. All right, Chad, do you got you got yours on on tap or you need Brian to go through them for you? chad Bamaaaa: Good. So we've got ⁓ UNC plus eight. I like under 48 as well. If you can buy the hook at 48, that's cool. North Cairo State, we got I like the line. I don't want the points, I want the ⁓ plus one eighty-five. We got under 48 in North Dakota State. Sacramento State, we got plus nine and a half, Mexico State plus 31. Hawaii money line. plus 184 and I like the over ⁓ 56 ⁓ 56 and a half in UNLV which I've teased also as well. Greg: All right, and I got three official plays as of now. I got NC State plus four, Memphis plus four and a half, and Hawaii plus four and a half. And again, some of those lines may be off by half a point or so. They may have moved around since we've since we put ⁓ on the sheet or been doing this. ⁓ Brian: And I got you at North Dakota State minus six and a half. Greg: Yeah, that's right. I got there. That that's in my secondary plays, but I didn't ⁓ I hadn't got down there yet. ⁓ all right, so do you have a favorite play out of your list, Chad? chad Bamaaaa: over. Greg: If you could only make one bet Saturday, what would it be? chad Bamaaaa: Over whatever the number is in the ⁓ UNLB game. Brian: I'm gonna take UNL V money line. Greg: All right, Brian, if you could only make one play Saturday, what would it be? Right. I think I'm all I think my favorite play for Saturday is the NC State game. I I got them at plus I think four and a half on my on my site, but that's I think that's my favorite one of the favorite one of the play. So all right, we're gonna do something a little bit fun here as we close out every show each week. We're gonna do ⁓ we're gonna let Chad name it once he gets creative and can come up with something fun. We're gonna do we're gonna do a seven point teaser at the end of every show and we're gonna do a money line parlay at the end of every show. ⁓ so now that we've spent the entire show preaching discipline and all that, let's ⁓ let's immediately undo all of that stuff. So we got three people, three picks and seven points to help us in that direction. So Chad, give me give me your first leg of the seven point teaser. chad Bamaaaa: ⁓ I wanna go a seven point teaser that's gonna be over forty nine and a half UNLV. Brian: Seven points, I'm gonna take Memphis plus twelve and a half. Greg: mister Nobles, give me your favourite leg with seven points. All right. Well if you ⁓ if you go do that, give me Hawaii plus the seven. And I hate not getting a half in a teaser because I hate losing on a push on the set. ⁓ so if Hawaii loses by exactly eleven points to all of our followers, show me your ticket and I'll reimburse you. About that guarantee. All right, so that's ⁓ that's that's three brilliant minds. That's gotta be chad Bamaaaa: No, don't do that. Greg, I think you're froze. Brian: He's muted herself. chad Bamaaaa: Or you're on mute. Yeah, Greg. Good. Can we get like a permanent mute on him? Brian: Did you have that button already on your screen, Chad, to hit that when you need it? chad Bamaaaa: Twenty years ago, I s I wish I had a fucking like a ⁓ Greg: It's it's what happens when you don't ⁓ w when you forget to hit your phone on Do Not Disturb. Brian: Yeah. chad Bamaaaa: No, we're just waiting on you to figure out what like what life is doing. Greg: Can y'all see me now or y'all just hear me? I can't tell you. Somebody somebody called me and so now I'm ⁓ I may be off camera. But anyway, don't don't throw out some minus three thousand stuff. Just give me one leg to a money line parlay. Chad, who you got? chad Bamaaaa: Man, that's such a tough, yeah, such a that's a ask. ⁓ I like Hawaii plus one eighty four. Greg: I I like it. That's that's what you went with and and I'm well you said N C State, but it's about the same point. So that'll that'll make the the parlay value about the same. Brian, what's your piece? Brian: ⁓ as y'all see I took Memphis with the teaser at twelve and a half but I'm taking UNL V to win the game. So I'm taking UN L V at the money line. Greg: All right, well, just for safeties, I'm gonna I'm gonna throw TCU in there. But when I plugged that one in, that three team parlay got me to about plus three fifty, plus four hundred, depending on the site. So you got the because of Chad's money line. So if you got Hawaii as a four point underdog, you get Y on the money line, TCU on the money line, and ⁓ who'd you go with, Brian? New Mexico State or ⁓ UNLV. All right. So if you get that three winners, that's a pretty juicy parlay that ⁓ that wouldn't suck. So Brian: UN UN New Mexico State, UNLV. Greg: All right, Chad, who's the who's the team in the three way that blows it? chad Bamaaaa: Mine. ⁓ I mean I look, I've gone back and forth. I've gone back and forth between ⁓ North Carolina State and Hawaii. I mean, ⁓ we've emailed this back and forth, and then I said Hawaii a minute ago, and you're like, yeah, but you emailed North Carolina State. Bro, God, it's so tough. I want to add value to it, but like, I mean, when you're in this like five to six point range or four or three, it's so rough. Greg: Yours probably since you went with the but yours is the one that gives us value. I I don't know that I would advise anybody to do this, but if you're a total degenerate and you like having a little fun and you have some faith in Chad's model, a little ⁓ NC State Hawaii moneyline parlay might be worth a sprinkle of fifteen or twenty bucks. chad Bamaaaa: Absolutely right. Fifteen bucks for sure. I mean that's a good day. Even if you lose, you had a little bit of entertainment, but if you win, it's a good day. Greg: All right, so Brian, recap our ⁓ recap our whiskey and winners teaser and our whiskey and winners moneyline parlay for ⁓ for we start wrapping things up for the night. Brian: I'm gonna give you that, but I'm gonna give you my ⁓ last official play. All right. My last official play is going to be in the Montana State Utah Tech game. Montana State, number one ranked team in UT in ⁓ FCS, Utah State is rebuilding. Montana State is returning Jason Lamson as a quarterback, 3,000 ⁓ passing yards, 26 touchdowns. He's had 700 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns. Taco Dowler as their 100, I mean not a hundred, but a thousand yard receiver, all American. Titan fleshman on the offensive line. They're playing in the Utah, so ninety-seven to a hundred degrees in the Utah Desert, or are they all really ready for that one? We are here in Georgia, but I don't know about Utah and Montana. So I'm gonna take as official play, and I know this came out of nowhere, they both want to run the ball, they both want to chew the clock, they both want to get players out of the game when it's that hot. I'm taking the under fifty seven and a half. chad Bamaaaa: Yeah, that's that's a different different thing. Brian: in the Montana State, Utah Tech game. And then going to your going to your ⁓ question on my combined parlay, I got Chad's pick at Hawaii. I got Greg at TCU, and I got me at UNL V. And then on our combined teaser, I got Chad's pick UNLV and Memphis over 49 and a half. Hawaii at plus seven is what Greg picked. And then my pick was Memphis plus 12 and a half. chad Bamaaaa: No sé qué chido. I liked it. Brian: ⁓ plus eleven, I that's even better. But p yeah, they were three and a half, so plus eleven. chad Bamaaaa: I don't I don't hate the Memphis. I like that. Greg: And the Hawaii the Hawaii will be plus eleven. Yeah, they're plus they're plus four now. All right, Chadwick, you got anything you want to add before we get out of here for the night? chad Bamaaaa: ⁓ I don't was there some confusion ⁓ on like two plays ago? You said like ⁓ kinda went back and forth like ⁓ maybe confused people? Greg: No, I was just saying for the people that are following along. If you're ⁓ if you're a big fan of two underdogs straight up, you got NC State and Hawaii both winning outright, that might be worth the moneyline sprinkle. chad Bamaaaa: Okay. Yep. I'm good. Greg: All right, guys, well, that'll do it for this week's episode of Whiskey and Winners. So we ⁓ I promise y'all we studied the numbers, we broke down the matchups, we we did the research, we put in the work, and then for some reason that none of us can explain, we decided to do a teaser and a moneyline parlay just for fun. So hey, clearly we're ready for college football. But here's the thing, guys. Look, this is for entertainment purposes only. Remember, only bet what you can afford to lose, only drink what you can afford to regret. And I mean never, ever, ever let one of us dumbasses you convince you that that third leg of the parlay is a lock. It ain't. I promise. That's the one that loses. Enjoy the games, guys. We'll be back next week to talk shit and celebrate our brilliance. Or possibly explain why the refs, the weather, the coaching, the turnovers, and pretty much just the laws of physics screwed us over. That's whiskey and winners. Good luck Saturday, guys. Hey y'all, pour another one. We'll see you next week. Good night. Brian: Mm. chad Bamaaaa: Yeah. Brian: Good luck. chad Bamaaaa: Good luck, guys.