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The new cold economics of Middle East oil for China · Cultural Wars | America Out Loud News

• 0:11
  It's the tip of the spare in the epic battle to defend the United States of America.
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  And National Security Hour exposes the wolves in sheep's clothing and the nefarious plots to undermine and destroy U.S.
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• 1:03
  I'm your host, Lieutenant Colonel Sargasangir, you're Sarmy Retired, and the CEO of the Near East Center for Strategic Engagement, also a board member of the National Security Army.
• 1:17
  Who you haven't heard from for a long time, but uh uh Ron's been going to the same thing I've been going through uh and we're trying to recover from all those army injuries with uh multiple surgeries that we had to have done to us.
• 1:31
  But uh so be it.
• 1:32
  Uh I always tell Iran all their territories that him and I fought over.
• 1:37
  We turned around and gave it to the bad guys anyway.
• 1:39
  But uh we still uh love the fact that we served and they encourage uh all the young men and women out there who want to serve, do serve.
• 1:47
  The nation needs your uh help and uh especially going into our 20-50 years of existence.
• 1:53
  We need to continue this uh democratic republic uh as uh far as we can uh continue it.
• 2:01
  Ron is a formal or Ron Reese, I should say, for those who don't remember him as a former intelligence analyst who served as a director of technical analysis special projects for a near East Center for Strategic Engagement, our company.
• 2:16
  And he previously had served with the Iraqi survey group uh between 2004 and 2005, followed by an assignment to the Iraqi counter-terrorism task force working with the J2X section.
• 2:28
  Uh and during the past six plus years, he has uh become a really subject extra matter on early treatment, um, broad spectrum small molecular uh BSSM for RNA viruses uh based in the research of Dr.
• 2:45
  Ralph Beric, a member of the National Academy of Sciences.
• 2:49
  And um actually it was Ron who initially became the first individual to publicly recognize that Dr.
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  Zolingo's protocol was based on Dr.
• 2:57
  Beric's PSSM research later.
• 3:00
  He personally briefed Dr.
• 3:01
  Zelenko on uh this uh critical information, and uh I actually uh was able to interview Dr.
• 3:09
  Zelenko based on Ron's work, and um that was the first time Dr.
• 3:13
  Zelenko had heard about the fact that what he was working on to save lives was really tied to a Dr.
• 3:20
  Beric initial research, which he had not shared with the globe or the world.
• 3:25
  Uh Ron is uh the primary co-author of the Protocol Z, uh, which uh details the origins of the Zelenko Protocol and suggests uh close alternatives based solely on all natural uh ingredients.
• 3:39
  The book also explores the connection between the uh World Economic Forum and the global pandemics, and as well as the H5N1 ABM flu and its potential as a disease X that might be out there.
• 3:54
  But with all that said, uh it is uh Ron's work as a director of technical analysis and special projects that brings us here, specifically looking at uh uh the uh uh important information I need to be aware of uh prior to uh uh the POTUS President of the United States heading to China uh sometime later this month uh to discuss uh Viji what the global ramifications are gonna be based on the uh Iran war.
• 4:22
  Ron, it's good to have you here.
• 4:24
  Much appreciated coming back on the show again.
• 4:27
  Thank you, Sergio.
• 4:28
  I appreciate the invitation.
• 4:30
  Um yeah, it's uh been a long six years and a lot of different experience.
• 4:36
  Uh so uh yeah, uh going into China.
• 4:40
  This is uh gonna be a very interesting situation.
• 4:43
  Uh see what transpires between uh President Trump and President G.
• 4:49
  Uh, I already understand that there's been four loads of C-17 cargo that have been shipped into China with the advanced party there, so it seems that it may actually uh take place.
• 5:01
  And I think it will as well.
• 5:04
  Um it factors into what's going on in Iran.
• 5:08
  Uh streets war moves, the blockades, uh as well as the uh global economy.
• 5:16
  There's a lot of uh touch points to talk about there.
• 5:21
  There's a lot of touch points here, Ron, and um I I would tell everybody I was uh on the two mic show recently, and uh I did tell them that look, I always thought it was uh Iran had more to do with China than it had anything else.
• 5:33
  Uh and uh frankly, the only reason Iran's coming to the table is because of the economic issues, you know, with especially the foreman service of Iran being in China and being the Red Ride Act.
• 5:44
  But I think with us taking over Venezuela and the Venezuelan oil, Argentinian oil being under our control, U.S.
• 5:51
  oil, of course, and uh the biggest thing that happened to us just going back um a week ago was a uh U.S.
• 5:59
  flag uh oil tanker loading up in uh Texas, moving through the Panama Canal and delivering oil to Japan, one of our dearest allies in Japan is now even looking at bypassing the Article 9, and which we had imposed on them after World War II, uh, to ensure they did not expand throughout the entire Asia when it came to military expansion and now are looking at uh uh the uh purchase and the and the build out of uh drones that are war fighter capability drones and um uh frankly to counter possibility of China.
• 6:35
  Uh and uh even the uh prime minister of Japan recently stated that uh in her speech to the diet, which is the uh Japan's uh parliament, that uh if uh China blockades uh uh uh Taiwan basically it becomes a critical strategic uh security issue, which means that we are willing to go to war in Japanese terms uh against a blockade uh against Taiwan.
• 7:00
  Against Taiwan.
• 7:02
  So the blockade, I think, against Iran worked well, has uh really sunk their economy to the two and a 500 billion uh daily.
• 7:02
  So uh the blockade, I think against Iran worked well, has uh really sunk their economy to the tune of 500 billion uh daily.
• 7:11
  And uh frankly, uh, you know, UAE pulling out of OPEC, the only one who could encourage UAE to pull out up all OPEC and POTUS uh has been clear on it even in the interviews that have been done from the Oval Office that uh, you know, uh it would be good uh for them to pull out.
• 7:11
  And uh frankly, uh you know, UAE pulling out of OPEC, the only one who could encourage UAE to pull out up OPEC and POTUS uh has been clear on it, even in the interviews that have been done from the Oval Office that uh, you know, uh it would be good uh for them to pull out.
• 7:28
  That means that OPEC no longer can control the global markets.
• 7:28
  That means that OPEC no longer.
• 7:32
  That means everybody can compete on the global market.
• 7:35
  That means now China has to pay full price, then uh rather than the cheap money that they were basically having to pay if that to the Iranians, and for those who don't know when Iran was basically getting a hundred dollar barrels that were pretty much getting it to China for $20 a barrel, and so we mean receiving uh you know financial instruments for that, whether it be uh Bitcoin or be uh US dollars that are actually receiving goods uh from China, and now China has to actually pay uh high cost for energy coming out of the uh Middle East region, which uh China is dependent on for survival.
• 8:15
  So that breaking OPEC really has given us an opportunity to compete globally in the global market and at the same time be able to really leverage China from a financial uh perspective.
• 8:27
  So it's up to them what they decide to do after this, but I wanted to make sure we had a chance to talk to you because you really know what the effects are going to be on not just China but the global markets uh and in the long term, in the short term and the long term.
• 8:43
  So that's why I wanted to make sure we had your back on the show.
• 8:47
  I appreciate it.
• 8:48
  I think you just covered a lot of the points that I was going to bring up.
• 8:51
  Uh China is facing, I mean, as we were talking about, you know, with Iran, Iran was shipping about 95% of all of their oil exports to China, and so having that reduced cost, you know, China's providing hard currency, but also providing weapons and technical support.
• 9:13
  Um what has transpired is that Trump has shown that Chinese military technology is worthless.
• 9:24
  We can defeat it.
• 9:26
  Um, with very few casualties on our part.
• 9:30
  Uh and that can be translated over into the Pacific theater as well.
• 9:37
  So, what does China have to lose?
• 9:40
  And Xia has been purging all of his military.
• 9:43
  He's really created an insular um Padre of people who answer only to him.
• 9:51
  He's gotten rid of a lot of the old guard, people that were uh people he grew up with, um, and now he's replaced it with younger people.
• 10:01
  And that creates a big hole within the uh experience uh experiential level of uh or expertise level, that's what I want to say within the Chinese military.
• 10:12
  And so that creates a lot of questions whether he's going to bring back his threats against Tawan uh Taiwan, or whether that takes a different level.
• 10:23
  You know, these younger officers just coming in will want to do anything to impress Xi uh for fear that they will be purged as well with you know, jail or you know, uh death.
• 10:36
  I mean, you know, uh it's it's a very uh uh brutal system over there within the Chinese military.
• 10:45
  Um so but it is isolated sheep and and to a large degree.
• 10:51
  And so I don't fully understand.
• 10:53
  I try to listen in to some of these analysts who uh have a greater China-centric um focus, and they can read between the lines of what's going on because we as Americans we don't we don't get it.
• 11:08
  It's a different language.
• 11:10
  They're very opaque about what goes on within their government and within the military and then the Chinese Congress Party.
• 11:18
  Uh but I I see there are definitely economic.
• 11:23
  We've seen economic issues in China with regard to their property sector.
• 11:29
  Uh and that still has yet to reach a bottom.
• 11:33
  The you know being able to uh those were the major investments of a lot of Chinese people, and now they're sitting on these investments that are losing value day by day, month by month, and it has not yet reached the bottom.
• 11:50
  Um, and so that has detrimental economic impacts within the Chinese uh community.
• 11:58
  So it's it's uh I'm trying to remember how uh whether Churchill we stated the uh Europe was like a uh uh an onion or something that you know you see it's hiding behind curtains uh that you can't see beyond.
• 12:15
  And this is how I feel about China, you know, uh it's really hard to see what the real agenda is.
• 12:21
  But it is clear that they were pushing uh their influence into Iran and giving Iran the the belief that they could uh control the Persian Gulf, and they could decide who could export, who could import in its solely onto them.
• 12:39
  And that gave China a lot of uh a lot of control, and that's now been destroyed.
• 12:45
  And uh I don't see where China's gonna gain any benefits.
• 12:50
  So when Trump gets over there, I think he's gonna lay down the uh lay down the law degree in here and the expectations.
• 12:57
  Uh if you want to have your oil, we need to get Iran's oil back online.
• 13:02
  Otherwise, their production completely halts.
• 13:05
  And if it does, then China will be, as you stated, aptly, uh buying, you know, competing for whatever available stocks of oil that are out there in the global economy.
• 13:17
  So I think it's pretty critical for China's economy.
• 13:20
  Um offsetting the already uh critical damage that's taking place.
• 13:30
  Ron, let me ask you a question.
• 13:32
  Do you think that he's the POTUS, and I we got three minutes left to go in this segment?
• 13:38
  We could explore a little bit more, but you think that uh the POTUS has no choice for now uh to ensure that at least the Chinese economy as much as we want to squeeze them for leverage has to survive.
• 13:50
  Um I mean, what are the ramifications?
• 13:53
  I guess when we come back to the U.S.
• 13:54
  We don't want to back them.
• 13:56
  I don't think we want to back China against the walls where they feel like the only uh avenue they have is conflict.
• 14:00
  The only uh avenue they have is conflict.
• 14:04
  You know, that's certainly where you don't want to, just like Japan.
• 14:04
  You know, that's certainly where you don't want to just like Japan.
• 14:07
  We don't want to push Imperial Japan uh put their back up against the water where they feel like they have to lash out and attack to get the resources that they need.
• 14:07
  We don't want to push Imperial Japan uh put their back up against the water where they feel like they have to lash out and attack to get the resources that they need.
• 14:18
  Now China has that ability in the South China Sea to go and explore for oil there.
• 14:18
  Now China has that ability in the South China Sea to go and explore for oil there, and that creates a problem as well.
• 14:23
  And that creates a problem as well.
• 14:25
  They I have I've heard they expect to see billions uh barrels of.
• 14:25
  They I've I've heard they expect to see billions of barrels of oil somewhere underneath the South China Sea.
• 14:32
  And this is why China has been trying to lay claim that entire region.
• 14:37
  Uh, you know, uh and confronting other you know, our partners like the Philippines and Malaysia, not Malaysia, well, Malaysia and Indonesia, China has tried to lay claim to the entire South China China Sea because there are natural resources that are underneath the uh that lurk underneath.
• 14:58
  So uh we don't want to push them to the extent where they try to enforce that claim.
• 15:05
  But we also don't want them uh creating uh you know uh problems around the world.
• 15:13
  Venezuela, Cuba, yeah, even here in America, where we have those issues where Chinese influence, uh China Institute, um a lot of different influences that the CCP has uh played up here in in the United States.
• 15:33
  So restraining them and saying, watch stay in your lane.
• 15:39
  We won't destroy you, we won't, you know, we'll we'll be there, but you're not gonna have the type of influence that you had once before.
• 15:46
  We don't want to have uh a confrontation, is what I think.
• 15:50
  That makes sense.
• 15:51
  I mean, I think that's pretty fair approach uh globally, especially where we said right now it's still our dependence on Taiwan for a lot of our uh requirements to really kind of run our civilization, as they would say.
• 16:03
  Um we'll be back for the second portion of our segment talking to uh Ron Reese uh on the issues of China, especially the uh war in uh Iran and its effects on economically and uh looking at the long-term perspective of what the globe is going to be dealing with financially.
• 16:22
  Uh Ron is the director of technical and analysis for special projects for the NECSC.
• 16:28
  And we'll be back for the second portion of our segment on our discussion.
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• 18:57
  Ron, I do want to look at it from uh basically energy perspective, right?
• 19:01
  Uh Trump came in and said we get a control of global energy.
• 19:05
  We went in and we pretty much took over Venezuela.
• 19:08
  Uh we've uh squeezing Iran, uh Argentine and oil is in our hands.
• 19:12
  We're looking at almost control of 80% of the global oil tankers are now willing to pay at least four million dollars per tanker just to travel to the Panama Canal, uh, coming into United States, docking here, picking up their oil.
• 19:27
  It doesn't seem that that pattern is going to change.
• 19:29
  I know that uh when you're looking the global markets and not just the issues we're dealing here with now, and you ask you you mentioned in the last segment.
• 19:38
  I mean, if Iran's production has a stop, you can't just crank up those oil fields again.
• 19:43
  It takes time and effort to restart them.
• 19:46
  Um, but even in Brazil recently, some nine million uh businesses or delinquent uh in our backyard, just in that country with 43 billion worth of debt that the nation has to recover from.
• 20:00
  How are we leveraging energy globally to be able to put ourselves in a position where a possible global recession won't hit us as bad?
• 20:09
  And but do you think that it doesn't matter if it does hit uh the globe, especially if it hits China hard that we're gonna be feeling it here regardless if it's gonna be before the midterms or through the next four years or so?
• 20:25
  Um, as you know, in previous uh interviews, I do believe that we are on the verge of a recession at some point.
• 20:32
  There's a lot of bad debt out there, uh, a lot of different reasons, you know, that that mimic the uh years prior to the great financial crisis in 2008.
• 20:43
  Uh now what it's gonna take to trigger that event.
• 20:47
  Energy uh shocks are certainly a big part of it because that energy is an input into the economy everywhere we go.
• 20:55
  It factors into demand because people have to make a choice of do they go out to a movie or do they put gasoline in their car to go to work uh if they have a job.
• 21:00
  They go out to a movie or do they put gasoline in their car to go to work?
• 21:04
  If they have a job.
• 21:06
  Uh and so I think that uh it has a you know, we saw an energy shock just prior to 2008 as well.
• 21:06
  And so I think that it has, you know, we saw an energy shock just prior to 2008 as well.
• 21:14
  And so there is a level of fear that I see uh among some of the analysts that I uh you know look into that they believe that we see the potential for a recession.
• 21:14
  And so there is a level of fear that I see among some of the analysts that I look into that they believe that we see the potential for a recession.
• 21:27
  Certainly I see it in Europe.
• 21:27
  Certainly I see it in Europe.
• 21:28
  I see the potential in Asia.
• 21:28
  I see the potential in Asia.
• 21:31
  Already we see countries like South Korea that are extremely worried about an energy crunch there and what they can do to try to stimulate their economies.
• 21:43
  But stimulus doesn't do anything if you don't have the energy.
• 21:47
  And you can't afford the energy to make your products cost competitive in the global marketplace.
• 21:53
  So I think this is going to be an issue also with China in Indonesia.
• 21:58
  I don't think it's going to go away for any time any time.
• 22:02
  Because it's not just Iran that's having these production disruptions.
• 22:18
  And so that comes and plays into the American markets because we were forty, we are 42.
• 22:26
  We provide 42% of all helium production in the world.
• 22:31
  And helium is critical to semiconductor production.
• 22:34
  You need the helium to be able to cool uh these uh uh lithographic machines.
• 22:41
  I'm not fully, but I know that helium is critical to semiconductor production.
• 22:46
  So that's not coming back online anytime soon, you know, uh because of the disruptions.
• 22:52
  It's gonna take certainly, I would think at least a year or two for Qatar to bring its gas fields back online.
• 23:01
  And the same would go with Iran.
• 23:04
  So UAE is trying to transit past the Gulf of Hormuz.
• 23:10
  They've got a pipeline that they've built to their uh uh fair.
• 23:15
  I'm trying to remember the name of the place, uh, but it's on the other side of the streets of Hormous.
• 23:21
  And they are also thinking about spending 50 billion dollars to increase that capacity to circumvent the streets of Hormuz so this doesn't ever happen again.
• 23:31
  Um so it's gonna take years.
• 23:35
  And I think a lot of that, we're gonna see a lot of migration going over into the Americas uh or other alternative sources, and also Russia, whenever this situation in Ukraine finally winds down.
• 23:51
  There's a lot of uh, I think a lot of incentive on Putin's part to bring the Ukraine conflict to an end because he's got oil to sell and natural gas to sell, and Europe is gonna need it.
• 24:05
  Uh because they're they've lost a good portion of their supply.
• 24:10
  And we need to be able to supply Asia.
• 24:13
  So Venezuela is another issue we brought up with Madura.
• 24:17
  Uh I don't it's gonna take 50 billion dollars to bring Venezuelan capacity up to a level where they might even be able to fulfill the Persian Gulf deficit for oil and gas.
• 24:32
  Uh but it does provide that alternative.
• 24:35
  It is if they can bring that country back online, it probably provides a more secure uh source, one that cannot be uh you know disrupted by some country like Iran.
• 24:50
  So but I worry about the impacts you see in fertilizers.
• 24:55
  You know, we have a lot of farmers that are having problems getting fertilizer right now.
• 24:59
  And even if uh the Straits Horror moves were to open up tomorrow, being able to get enough fertilizer to uh you know various countries is gonna be difficult.
• 25:12
  It's gonna take a month of transit time, and the costs are gonna be prohibitive.
• 25:18
  So we are gonna see increased food costs, you know, probably for the next year or two.
• 25:25
  Uh so a lot of uh downstream consequences to what has transpired here and the the straits for moves and with Iran.
• 25:35
  Yeah, I mean uh for those who go down, Iran.
• 25:39
  I mean, reality is like spring is coming, right?
• 25:41
  You go back in your backyard and you decide to plant tomatoes, it takes time for those to grow.
• 25:46
  You need the fertilizer to feed them.
• 25:48
  So you need uh fertilizer at the uh strategic capacity to be able to really uh kind of get your production moving.
• 25:56
  But uh unless you get something.
• 25:59
  Some people do, but other people do permaculture and they'll do or count organic compost.
• 26:04
  You know, I think at a gardening level, it's much more is more viable.
• 26:10
  But at the mass agricultural level, you know, they're very dependent upon these fertilizers.
• 26:16
  So if they don't get them, then we're gonna see deficits, you know, and in production.
• 26:23
  It just depends on go ahead.
• 26:25
  Uh yeah, and uh look, uh it's it's funny too, because you're saying that it's not just Iran's oil production.
• 26:32
  I mean, they just this week, the Treasury Department uh sanctioned the uh deputy oil minister uh Allah um uh Bahadley uh on uh Tuesday uh or on Thursday or this week, I think it was uh for being involved in uh scheme to help Iran sell oil and the violation of the um international embargo.
• 26:57
  So uh other nations are suffering right now.
• 26:59
  Iraq to mum oil uh it's uh basically trucking it all the way to uh Syria and Jordan and trying to get it out um that way.
• 27:09
  So it's uh you know, um uh the Iraqi Basel Light is one of the uh best uh commodities out there that people try to get their hands on.
• 27:20
  Um and uh I don't I don't know.
• 27:22
  I I mean what's they're gonna they're talking about they're talking about building a pipeline from Basra over to Aqaba, Jordan as well.
• 27:30
  So you're gonna see more of an influence or more of a push for pipelines to counter the straits for moves that blockage there.
• 27:39
  So it can never be done again.
• 27:41
  Well, the problem is um uh you know the problem is uh Ron it I mean look I don't I'm gonna tell you right now, for those who are listening, I don't I don't think that the uh uh US is gonna stay long term in Iraq.
• 27:55
  And I I think our plan is to basically minimize the ability there for trying to leave.
• 28:00
  Leave.
• 28:00
  Uh and the problem was that when the war started against Iran, you know, US had no facilities in southern Iraq.
• 28:00
  And the problem was that when the war started against Iran, you know, US had no facilities in southern Iraq.
• 28:07
  Uh and the Iranian uh government told the Shia of Iraq go ahead and attack American nature.
• 28:07
  And the Iranian uh government told the Shia of Iraq go ahead and attack American interest.
• 28:13
  So what did the Iraqi Shia do?
• 28:13
  So what did the Iraqi Shia do?
• 28:14
  They actually attacked their own oil holding facilities and southern uh Iraq.
• 28:14
  They actually attacked their own oil holding facilities and southern uh Iraq.
• 28:20
  So uh the Malaysia's just out of stupidity for no reason, nothing get back and uh start attacking their own country.
• 28:20
  So uh the Malaysia's just out of stupidity for no reason, nothing get back and uh start attacking their own country.
• 28:29
  Um
• 28:29
  Um so I'm not sure if we really want to do anything else investment there.
• 28:34
  I know that in the past uh seven months, billions upon billions of dollars were invested by U.S.
• 28:41
  companies who initially were hesitant to even go to Iraq to uh conduct business, the uh State Department under the Trump administration encouraging to do so.
• 28:50
  And tomorrow, um Trump being uh you know not happy with what the uh Iraqis doing basically is gonna tell those companies, yeah, we don't think it's safe for you to do business there.
• 29:01
  Guess what?
• 29:02
  All that business will get lost.
• 29:04
  Now, you know, even Iraq, which had an opportunity to finally focus on economic bills is gonna have to now focus back on the security issues they've been dealing with for 20 plus years.
• 29:14
  Uh so uh I I don't know if that sector of oil coming out of the Middle East is gonna be viable in the long term to be able to at least set a short-term pause on what the economic shortfalls are going to be for us, not just globally, but here in the United States.
• 29:32
  Well, I I think you're right on that.
• 29:35
  I think you're quite correct.
• 29:36
  And it's not just the United States that's gonna have to face these issues.
• 29:41
  It's gonna be countries like China and the rest of Asia, Japan.
• 29:45
  You know, how much study China was trying to invest a lot of money into Iraq.
• 29:49
  They were looking for contracts, they were trying to build uh you know, fiber optic networks going up towards Syria and the Syrian border, you know, to circumvent the sub, you know, subterranean uh submarine cables that go through the Red Sea.
• 30:04
  Uh they were trying to invest a lot of money there in Iraq, and they were having you know some success.
• 30:10
  And now I think they're gonna have to question whether they really want to put that money into it.
• 30:16
  Um so maybe they will still do so, but I think the economic consequences to China is that they are going to have difficulty being able to find that additional capital to be able to invest in these very unstable regions.
• 30:34
  Um, and so I don't think we want to be involved.
• 30:37
  We would like to pull back and focus on the Americas.
• 30:40
  I believe for a long time that we're moving to a three-block economic block type of global situation.
• 30:48
  Asia, the Americas, Europe, Africa, and then we'll play in each other's pawns to a certain level, but primarily America's gonna say, you know, the United States is gonna say America is for the Americans, right?
• 31:03
  Uh Europe is gonna basically say we control Africa and get our resources from there.
• 31:10
  And Asia will say we want their resources from Asia.
• 31:13
  Um I think that's inevitable, inevitability.
• 31:16
  That's what we're moving towards already.
• 31:19
  And the global economy, the new world world order, has been decisively um you know, ripped apart by Trump.
• 31:29
  And I think it needed to be that way because it was becoming overly controlling by a certain group of elites.
• 31:35
  And so um, as we've talked about the one percent.
• 31:40
  Uh and I think it's good to have competition among different economic blocks.
• 31:48
  And we're our own national security depends upon having our resources coming from our particular two continents, South America and North America.
• 32:00
  So that's my particular view.
• 32:03
  Um how much of an issue is it gonna be when it comes to, I mean, we just have a new Fed chairman that came in.
• 32:12
  Um I don't think you're gonna see a change in the interest rates.
• 32:16
  Um how much of a um of an effect do you think that's gonna have on the United States?
• 32:26
  And if you were the Fed chairman, how would you play this to ensure that uh uh the economy doesn't take a larger hit than it is most likely gonna take, given the fact that we've been involved in this war to leverage against uh China economically?
• 32:45
  Well, I I for one, I think with the Fed, Jerome Powell stepping down to become a governor.
• 32:52
  You know, he's no longer the Fed cheap, but now he's a governor.
• 32:55
  That's almost unheard of to take that kind of demotion down to a lower position.
• 33:01
  And so that creates, you know, he's he's gonna continue to try to exert his influence within Federal Reserve decisions.
• 33:08
  So uh I that's gonna have to be something that plays out.
• 33:13
  I think inevitably, inevitably higher fuel costs, everyone looks around and they see my fuel is costing me 450 a gallon, five, six, depending where they are in the states.
• 33:25
  I cannot afford to do these things.
• 33:28
  I cannot go to the movies, I cannot do all these discretionary activities, and that's gonna have an impact on the overall economic economy.
• 33:37
  Now we can have deficit spending by Trump to try to offset that stimulus cause stimulus, but it's debt financed.
• 33:46
  It's not the actual economy growing.
• 33:49
  It's not people going out there and spending and not you know going in the debt private debt.
• 33:54
  It's the government going in the debt to be able to finance that economic growth.
• 33:59
  And that that's unsustainable, but they've made it happen for many years.
• 34:03
  So how much longer is gonna be the key question?
• 34:07
  But if these other economies around the world are being dismantled, then it gives, I guess the United States some breathins some breathing space because these other economies are gonna be looking for safe havens to put their capital because their own economies are you know falling apart.
• 34:27
  And the dollar is really becoming an issue with regard to uh like looking at South Korea and Indonesia, Indonesia its rupiah has gone to a uh all-time low.
• 34:41
  And so now they're all trying to figure out how to get dollars.
• 34:45
  And the Federal Reserve has been doing well, it gets complicated.
• 34:49
  Interest rate swaps, we do swaps of currency, US dollars for U.S.
• 34:53
  rupiah to try to give them access to the dollars they need to buy commodities in the global economy.
• 34:59
  Oil, grain, whatever.
• 35:00
  Oil, grain, whatever.
• 35:01
  All those things are priced in dollars.
• 35:01
  All those things are priced in dollars.
• 35:03
  And if you're you can't use yen, you can't use rubia, you can't use uh you know other currencies, you've got to use dollars.
• 35:03
  And if you're you you can't use yen, you can't use rupee, you can't use uh you know other currencies, you've got to use dollars.
• 35:14
  That means you have to convert your currency into dollars to be able to buy those global commodities that you require.
• 35:14
  That means you have to convert your currency into dollars to be able to buy those global commodities that you require.
• 35:20
  And so these the certainly the energy price shock is having a detrimental effect on many of these countries in Asia and around the world.
• 35:20
  And so these the certainly the energy price shock is having a detrimental effect on many of these countries in Asia and around the world.
• 35:29
  So
• 35:29
  So how that plays out is going to be, I don't think it's gonna be I think it's gonna be good for the dollar, but it won't be good for many of these other currencies as they weaken.
• 35:40
  So no, it won't be.
• 35:42
  And uh uh maybe that's the plan.
• 35:44
  Let it let's squeeze them a little bit uh as long as their other economies are having issues, uh at least it sustaines us at least through the midterms, and then we can come back.
• 35:53
  Maybe if we could uh address a long-term plan for the region.
• 35:56
  But with that said, we'll come back for the final segment of our discussion with uh Ron Reese, who's uh serves as a uh director of technical uh analysis, special projects for an NECSC.
• 36:08
  Uh Ron uh is uh again the primary co-author of protocol Z, which details the origins of the zoning protocol and suggests close and alternatives based solely on all national ingredients, and also the book also explores the connections between the World Economic Forum and the global pandemic, as well as uh H5N1 avian flu and its potential as a disease X.
• 36:32
  We'll be back for the final discussion on the issues of uh the war in Iran and the effects on global economy.
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• 38:01
  Welcome back to the final uh segment uh of our discussion.
• 38:05
  But Ron Reese, uh, who's looking at uh specifically the effects of the uh war with Iran um on the global markets, especially the leverage that Trump may have going into discussions uh uh later this month uh with uh President Xi of China.
• 38:21
  Uh Ron serves as a director of technical analysis special projects for the NECSC.
• 38:26
  I'm your host, Lieutenant Colonel Sorgasinger, U.S.
• 38:29
  Army Retired, CEO of the Near East Center for Strategic Engagement and a board member of the National Security Hour.
• 38:35
  I do want to remind our audiences to be sure to uh uh to make uh America.com, your daily stuff or the latest news and happenings.
• 38:45
  We almost do our part and share the stories, the articles, the videos so that we can help secure America's future.
• 38:51
  Also, you can find out more about my show and get all the latest podcasts.
• 38:56
  If you go to the menu navigation bar on AmericaOutlaw.com, under our show or schedule, you will be in the gnome.
• 39:04
  Uh Ron, I do want to kind of uh uh cover one simple issue that people have brought up, and they're saying, you know, but the economy having the issues it's having, there's an estimate of uh us spending maybe 25 billion dollars on uh the war itself with multi-operations taking place.
• 39:24
  But uh I would remind everybody out there that doge really kind of blew the lid on 21.7 billion dollars that were being paid to people to do absolutely nothing, uh specifically, and there was more money that was wasted there.
• 39:39
  Um but uh with that said, uh regardless of how we've use our money, right now, money may be and uh what are the programs that we've now cut out from utilizing uh those dollars.
• 39:51
  Um in the short term, there's gonna be an effect on uh U.S.
• 39:55
  economy of all feel it at the gas station, but in the long term, there might be an effect as far as how much flexibility U.S.
• 40:02
  economy will have to be able to negotiate uh traditional landscape, even uh after we have a long-term um agreement with uh Iran and oil is flowing through the uh uh Gulf uh or I should say the uh Straits of Hormones.
• 40:19
  Uh what is a long-term projection uh that uh you would have going in as your negotiative uh uh if you were the president of the United States.
• 40:33
  Well, China's economy depends upon exports.
• 40:36
  So if if we're not in there's the old adage that if the America catches, if the American economy catches a cold, the rest of the world catches pneumonia.
• 40:47
  Uh and that's especially I think the case with uh with China.
• 40:52
  And many of the other countries within the region within the Asian uh uh region don't want Chinese goods flooding into their own economies because that's detrimental to uh their own employment.
• 41:07
  And uh I know from my Indonesian context, having lived there for a number of years, they definitely don't want that.
• 41:14
  You know, they see uh, you know, we worry about semiconductors or whatever being flooded into our market, various things from China uh undercutting American production, it could be just steel raw materials, whatever.
• 41:28
  But Indonesia, they they are worried about uh finished products coming in, and that's detrimental to their own growth.
• 41:37
  You know, they become dependent upon Chinese goods.
• 41:40
  And yes, they're cheaper, but you know, the economy economically, Indonesia needs to grow.
• 41:48
  It needs to grow its economy, it needs to be more insular in that sense to where it is growing under on a domestic level to employ its people.
• 41:57
  I mean, they've got nearly the same population as the United States.
• 42:00
  Population as the United States.
• 42:02
  So that's just one example.
• 42:02
  So that's just one example, but that plays out to the entire region.
• 42:04
  But that plays out through the entire region.
• 42:07
  So uh they're very hesitant and they're very skittish about Chinese ambitions within the region.
• 42:07
  So they're very hesitant and they're very skittish about Chinese ambitions within the region.
• 42:15
  So um I think you know that Trump has got he said he holds all the cards, okay.
• 42:15
  So I think you know that Trump has got, he said he holds all the cards, okay.
• 42:22
  I think he really does with regard to Iran.
• 42:22
  I think he really does with regard to Iran.
• 42:25
  And that also plays into China.
• 42:25
  And that also plays into China, because what is China?
• 42:29
  Because what is China going to do?
• 42:30
  They're going to try to create mischief in the Persian Gulf.
• 42:34
  No longer.
• 42:34
  Do they depend upon Iranian oil?
• 42:38
  Discounted.
• 42:39
  Yeah, they do.
• 42:42
  Do they depend upon export markets into the United States as well as Europe?
• 42:47
  Yes, they do.
• 42:49
  Will they be as willing to import European or American goods?
• 42:56
  Probably no, because they're now worried about keeping their own people employed.
• 43:01
  So I think that it's um economically many countries are going to have to hunker down because otherwise they face domestic uh unrest.
• 43:11
  People want jobs, they need jobs, they need to feed their families.
• 43:15
  And I think this is going to be just as much of an issue in China as it is throughout the rest of Asia and now in Europe.
• 43:23
  It'll flow across the globe and eventually it will hit the United States.
• 43:29
  Um, you know, as I messaged you the other day, I read a I saw a report that in Brazil that nine million small businesses are no longer paying on their debt, and it's about a 45 billion dollars uh total.
• 43:47
  Nine million small businesses who had gotten, I guess, COVID-related uh loans from the Brazilian government are now delinquent.
• 43:57
  And if it's happening in Brazil, it's got to be happening in a lot of other countries as well.
• 44:03
  Uh HSBC just took a 400 million, that's a uh London bank, but also heavily uh involved in Asia, just took a 400 million dollar hit because of a fraudulent mortgage scheme they were executing in Bangladesh.
• 44:21
  So they were selling mortgages and getting people to buy mortgages in Bangladesh, and they were fraudulent.
• 44:29
  And so now HSBC is on the hook for 400 million dollars.
• 44:32
  It's this fraudulent lending that's going on, and we're seeing uh as Jamie Dimond of uh JP Morgan Chase said, we're seeing a lot more cockroaches starting to pop out in the financial sector.
• 44:45
  So it's how many more, you know, do we have a small infestation or do we have a massive infest infestation?
• 44:52
  That's what we're gonna see in coming months around around the world, and eventually it's gonna come, it's it's gonna become known in the America and America as well.
• 45:05
  I mean, trying to actually be aware of the fact that we're trying to win ourselves off of even Taiwan eventually uh by building manufacturing hair base, uh controlling of the AI and uh even with our attempts to go to the moon, uh, you know, there's a lot of resources of the moon that we could uh dig into.
• 45:25
  Uh and SpaceX is going public this summer, you know, Elon Musk.
• 45:30
  So that's gonna be a very that may become the tipping point in the economy is once that IPOs that might become the peak.
• 45:39
  I don't know.
• 45:39
  It's hard to say uh, you know, you can say probabilities and predictions, but there are no guarantees.
• 45:45
  But all I can say is we are definitely in a bubble.
• 45:49
  In the AI centers, where's the where's the profitability on the AI center?
• 45:53
  You know, the the data centers that they're pouring billions of dollars into.
• 45:58
  They're not inherently profitable.
• 46:00
  So what's the purpose of it?
• 46:01
  They may promote it, so but uh you're right.
• 46:04
  Uh at the end of the day, you gotta show the uh there's a marger call, right?
• 46:08
  Um, but uh what will your recommendation be on the uh interest rates for the way you see it?
• 46:13
  Do you keep them the way it is, or is there any way possibly within the next year you think that a cut could take place?
• 46:21
  Bankers never want to lower rates because when they lower rates, then that is a signal that there's economic distress.
• 46:28
  So they're gonna you know whisper past the graveyard, uh and uh whistle, I guess whistle past the graveyard, and they're gonna try to keep rates as high as they can.
• 46:39
  Uh Australia is looking to raise their rates because they're worried about inflationary fears of uh, you know, they have to strengthen their currency so that they're able to buy dollar US dollar-denominated commodities.
• 46:52
  This is the problem.
• 46:53
  It puts it puts a uh a burden on them.
• 46:57
  They they but they need to lower their rates to create lending.
• 47:02
  But in effect, whenever the banks low uh lower their rates, that is a sign of recession.
• 47:10
  They're trying to offset the lack of borrowing.
• 47:14
  And we're in a debt-based economy.
• 47:17
  You know, our economy grows as long as people are taking out debt and paying on that debt.
• 47:24
  When that debt is defaulted upon, then the economy collapses and goes into deflation.
• 47:31
  And this is one of the things that people tend to get wrong.
• 47:34
  We are debt-based, and we have to have debts being extended out there to create the image of uh actual economic growth.
• 47:45
  And when it isn't the private sector doing that borrowing, it's the government that comes in and steps in, you know, with national debt.
• 47:54
  And then that national debt becomes collateral, you know, for private debt and for a lot of uh nations, but we're seeing a lot of problems within the private credit sector right now.
• 48:09
  Uh that supposedly uh pristine debt was supposed to be pristine uh loans and notes were you know um uh bulletproof, but no, suddenly they collapse, and then banks are having to write them off.
• 48:27
  We don't know the extent to uh to how far this is gonna go.
• 48:32
  I don't have a good feeling about it because of what we saw in 2008.
• 48:37
  It's much worse now, and it's gonna be like a game of dominoes where the first domino comes down and it starts knocking down the rest.
• 48:46
  And that's my fear, and I think it's a fear of a lot of others, but they don't want to say it.
• 48:52
  I uh and I think part of the reason I wanted to bring it up because uh people are always asked me why was the POTUS pushing for the previous uh Fed Care to lower the interest rates?
• 49:00
  For the previous uh Fed chair to lower the interest rates.
• 49:03
  Um and I think it was just to be able to show that the economies uh able to go ahead.
• 49:04
  And I think it was just to be able to show that the economy is uh able to go ahead.
• 49:10
  Because they have debt payments.
• 49:10
  Because they have debt payments.
• 49:12
  We have you know trillions of dollars worth of uh US national debt rolling over, and it has to be rolled over at a higher interest rate.
• 49:12
  We have you know trillions of dollars worth of uh US national debt rolling over, and it has to be rolled over at a higher interest rate.
• 49:22
  So he wants the the rates to be lower so that he can pay less in interest, and that is part of the problem.
• 49:22
  So he wants the the rates to be lower so that he can pay less in interest, and that is part of the problem is that we have a huge amount of interest being paid by the national by the federal government, and that's uh that goes to enrich the banks, it doesn't go to enrich public, it doesn't go, it's wasted money.
• 49:44
  It's money that shouldn't have to be borrowed at such a high interest rate.
• 49:48
  But the bankers want to keep the rates high because they don't want to create the impression of deflation because deflation will fresh debt because that causes stronger currencies.
• 50:02
  That means that you can't inflate that loan away with weaker currency.
• 50:08
  You're now having to pay that debt back, which is why deflation is the one thing that all bankers want to avoid.
• 50:20
  And so they'll say the economy's great, all this debt's great, no problems until it's not a until it is a problem.
• 50:28
  And then banks don't want to trust each other.
• 50:31
  Uh they don't want to trust the collateral that's being offered on a lot of these deals.
• 50:36
  Jamie Diamond is already talking about repricing collateral on a lot of this private credit debt.
• 50:42
  And that effectively pulls the rug out of private credit, the shadow banking system.
• 50:52
  Uh, where there the shadow banks are groups of entities out there that loan money to people that could not get a loan from a bank like JP Morgan or more, you know, uh, or Bank of America.
• 51:06
  So they're private entities out there, and their due diligence on the notes and loans are effectively subprime, just like we saw subprime mortgages back in 2007 that led into that, you know, the great financial crisis in 2008.
• 51:26
  So we're always on the cusp of it's all I'm gonna say, it's all a matter of trust.
• 51:34
  As long as the banks trust each other and they believe there's value and the loans that they're buying, uh, insurance companies are buying loan, they're all looking for yield, looking for high interest rates.
• 51:46
  It's very complex and hard to describe, but this is what's going on.
• 51:50
  Is a um it's a matter I trust you until I don't trust you.
• 51:54
  When I don't trust you, I want my money back, and I want it now.
• 51:58
  I want it yesterday.
• 51:59
  And this is what we're seeing within the private credit sector.
• 52:03
  And we're waiting to see if it gets worse.
• 52:06
  And HSBC is one big cockroach out there.
• 52:11
  Uh so start watching the banking sectors and start watching FDIC taking over banks.
• 52:19
  Um, and that's going to be another issue.
• 52:21
  How many banks are going to fail because of this loose lending that they've done with uh fraudulent collateral and the exposure that they have and the exposure they have to the private credit sector?
• 52:34
  So Ron, how would your leverage uh in agreement with the Iran in the long term for the good benefit of the United States to deal with some of the issues that you just described?
• 52:44
  And frankly, if you were the Fed chair, how would you balance not cutting the uh uh you know the interest rate, but at the same time being able to at least get us to a point where we're not feeling the stings of an economic uh global recession uh prior to the midterms.
• 53:07
  Um that's a very good question.
• 53:09
  I wish I could uh provide the real answer.
• 53:12
  There's there's Fed decisions are opaque.
• 53:16
  But right now we're seeing voting among the Fed governors is starting to be divided between hawks who want to have higher interest rates and doves who want lower interest rates or no changes, and so you have to watch how they vote.
• 53:33
  Um normally the Fed will not act until they see something really break in the economy.
• 53:41
  They're reactive, not proactive.
• 53:44
  And they always have because they have to keep up this veil of oh, the economy is doing great, job growth is strong.
• 53:52
  Um, you know, and they don't they don't want to confirm economic weakness.
• 53:59
  Okay, they want to try to present this view of everything's the Goldilocks scenario because it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
• 54:11
  You know, they don't want to create fear, so they're gonna continue to create positive feelings, good vibrations, you might say, uh, until they have no choice but to react and say, oh, we were wrong, and now we're going to react in a very substantial way.
• 54:27
  And I think you'll see this in other economies first.
• 54:30
  You'll see it within the European economy, you'll see it within Asian economies.
• 54:37
  Um, and eventually you will see it in America.
• 54:40
  But it may not be it may not play out that way.
• 54:43
  There may be some event within the American economy where we become the deciding factor, the trigger.
• 54:50
  Uh, and this is what I worry about with private equity and private credit private credits.
• 54:57
  Could it become a trigger that spreads across the globe?
• 55:01
  Or is it going to be a matter of the globe global weakness coming to American shores gradually?
• 55:08
  And I don't have a crystal ball on that.
• 55:11
  Uh, but it's some these are things that I watch out for.
• 55:15
  So we'll see.
• 55:19
  That's all we can do.
• 55:20
  Um, like you appreciate it, Ron.
• 55:22
  I wish we had more time, but uh, you know, um recovery as best as we can in three segments, but uh um a lot of complex issues, yeah.
• 55:31
  A lot of complex issues, and uh one person to have to deal with it, especially when he sits down to talk to uh President and let's hope that we don't have something come out of the left field when it comes to this entire issue of uh where Iran's gonna be sitting after a long-term agreement with him.
• 55:49
  Uh, I do want to thank uh uh Ron Reese, uh, who is uh a dear friend, a colleague, and uh also a former intelligence analyst who currently serves as a director of technical analysis special projects for an ECSC.
• 56:00
  Director of Technical Analysis Special Projects for N ECSC.
• 56:04
  Uh and I do want to thank our audience out there for joining us on the mission.
• 56:04
  And I do want to thank our audiences out there for joining us on the mission.
• 56:08
  The national uh security hours is a tip of the spear in the epic battle to defend the United States of America with liberty and justice for all.
• 56:16
  But that's it.
• 56:16
  With that said, I'm your host, Lieutenant Colonel Sargasangeri, US Army Retired CEO of the Near East Center for Strategic Engagement, and we will see you next week.
• 56:16
  I'm your host, Lieutenant Colonel Sargasangeri, U.S.
• 56:19
  Army retired CEO of the Near East Center for Strategic Engagement, and we will see you next week.
• 56:25
  Uh focus a little bit more on uh China and uh what uh polters.
• 56:25
  Focus a little bit more on China and uh what the POTUS might be able to achieve with his meeting with Xi as we move forward uh before the uh midterms.