Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Chuck’s Commentary - Trump Has No Good Options In Iran + Democrats Should Win Both The House & Senate

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Chuck’s Commentary - Trump Has No Good Options In Iran + Democrats Should Win Both The House & Senate · The Chuck ToddCast

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  Speaker 1: and rates may vary. Hello Aaron, Welcome to the Wednesday
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  Speaker 1: edition of the Chuck Podcast. We have a nice complete
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  Speaker 1: episode for you. As always, I will have a lot
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: to say about all things having to do with the
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  Speaker 1: war in Iran and it's impact on the atomy and frankly,
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  Speaker 1: the I don't know what you call it. I'm not
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  Speaker 1: going to call it necessarily leadership from the president on
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  Speaker 1: this war. But he is a bit of a weather
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  Speaker 1: vane on this war. And I will get into that
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  Speaker 1: in a few minutes. We will also do questions and
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: of course a top five list, but I'm going to
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  Speaker 1: begin where it's understandable. Right if you're if it's early
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  Speaker 1: in the week since the start of this Iran war,
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  Speaker 1: you may be confused if you've been listening to Donald
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: Trump's rheter because if you listen to Donald trump'srhetoric, this
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  Speaker 1: war is going to come to an end any day now,
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  Speaker 1: maybe any week now, any day now, any hour now.
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  Speaker 1: It's close. It's close. They're dealing with the right people.
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  Speaker 1: They're doing this, and it if you follow the military
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  Speaker 1: side of things, we're on the verge of escalating this conflict.
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  Speaker 1: We're on the verge of sending in ground troops at
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  Speaker 1: least at a minimum, to the shorelines or to the
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  Speaker 1: key islands in order to try to figure out how
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  Speaker 1: to how to open up the straight up more moves.
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  Speaker 1: And I think it's you know, it's obviously it's we
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  Speaker 1: know this is all due to Donald Trump kind of simultaneously.
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  Speaker 1: He's basically trying to manage two wars simultaneously. One in
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  Speaker 1: the Middle East and one on the trading floor of
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  Speaker 1: Wall Street. And I guess the question that's worth asking
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  Speaker 1: is which one is he trying to win? And I
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  Speaker 1: think this is the I think this is the open
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  Speaker 1: question because right now, in some ways the markets, he
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  Speaker 1: has had some success manipulating the markets. Right. We've noticed
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  Speaker 1: there is this pattern, right if you will, and five
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  Speaker 1: straight weeks somewhere between twelve and fifteen hours before the
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  Speaker 1: opening bell for that given week, since the start of
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  Speaker 1: the Iran war, there'll be a statement for Donald Trump
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  Speaker 1: which injects diplomatic hope one might call it into a
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  Speaker 1: deteriorating military situation, right, And each time he does it,
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  Speaker 1: it has the desired effect. It stabilizes the equities markets.
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  Speaker 1: It knocks oil back down closer to right around one
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  Speaker 1: hundred dollars range, maybe even below it until the news
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  Speaker 1: of the reality of the situation percolates back up, and
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: then suddenly the energy markets respond. So you know, let's
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: let's I'm going to go through each example week by week.
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  Speaker 1: So we'll start with this. Right in week one, he
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  Speaker 1: sort of had the pivot from the shock and all right,
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: and you heard, so you had Operation Epic fury launches
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  Speaker 1: on February twenty eighth, tomahawks hit cities in Iran. Global
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  Speaker 1: markets braced for what they thought was going to be
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  Speaker 1: a seven Andy style oil shock. Then what does Trump
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: do on March second? That Monday, Trump ignores the smoke
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  Speaker 1: over Tehran and focuses on the ticker, and he says,
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: I thought oil prices were going to go up higher
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  Speaker 1: than they are now, and I thought we would see
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: a bigger drop in stock. It hasn't been that bad.
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  Speaker 1: We're in control, all right. That's week one, and then
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  Speaker 1: he claims that the war would be a four to
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  Speaker 1: six week sprint. Remember he called it excursion. I think
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  Speaker 1: he meant incursion. He said it wouldn't be a forever war.
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  Speaker 1: So he stabilizes the initial panic sell off in week one.
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  Speaker 1: Week two, reports surface that the IRGC is leaderless and
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  Speaker 1: it's on its back foot after target it strikes. What
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  Speaker 1: does Trump do that Monday? And March ninth, at eight
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  Speaker 1: fifteen in the morning, before the stock market opens, he says,
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  Speaker 1: there will be no deal with Iran except underconditional surrender,
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  Speaker 1: and after that, we will work tirelessly to make Iran
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  Speaker 1: economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before. Iran will
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  Speaker 1: have a great future. So he's proposing essentially a Marshall
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  Speaker 1: Plan right, using rhetoric like it actually helps create a
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  Speaker 1: surge in the stock market, even as the Pentagon admits
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  Speaker 1: they had no day after plan Week three, the sanctions
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  Speaker 1: carrot if you will carg Island right, Iran's main oil terminal,
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  Speaker 1: it's essentially obliterated. Gas prices surge over four dollars a gallon.
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  Speaker 1: So what does Trump do that Monday? In an interview
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  Speaker 1: with The New York Post released just before the opening
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  Speaker 1: of the stock market, he says, I have a plan
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  Speaker 1: for everything. I could waive certain oil related sanctions to
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  Speaker 1: reduce prices if they behave. They're begging to reach a deal.
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  Speaker 1: They're calling me constantly. I don't always pick up, but
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  Speaker 1: they're calling. Well. Oil drops four percent on the waving
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  Speaker 1: sanctions comment, despite the fact there was no functioning Iranian
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  Speaker 1: government left to actually negotiate with. Then there's the false
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  Speaker 1: pause that was week four. This is March twenty second
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  Speaker 1: and twenty third. The military reality is domestic pressure mounts
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  Speaker 1: as three thousand casualties are reported. Israel pushes for strikes
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  Speaker 1: on some nuclear sites So Trump, on Monday, March twenty third, says,
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  Speaker 1: surprise press conference on the tarmac again before the market's open.
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  Speaker 1: We're having a little bit of a pause. I've decided
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  Speaker 1: to pause the threat to hit the energy sites for
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  Speaker 1: a few days because the talks are going very well.
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  Speaker 1: He claims, very very well. You'll be very happy. So
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  Speaker 1: while Trump claimed to pause, the Pentagon simultaneously was briefing
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: that the operations are going to continue at pace. The
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  Speaker 1: market though heard the word pause. Maybe that's what they
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  Speaker 1: wanted to hear for seventy two hours before the Thursday
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  Speaker 1: extension revealed it was a tactical stall, not a peace deal.
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  Speaker 1: Then there's the threat from over this last weekend hitting
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  Speaker 1: the desalinization plants or the energy markets. So the reality
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  Speaker 1: is the eighty second airborne shows up in the region
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  Speaker 1: for quote unquote stabilization, Iran hits a Q eighty oil tanker.
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  Speaker 1: What does Trump do on Monday morning seven am truth
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  Speaker 1: social thread quote The US is in serious discussions with
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  Speaker 1: a new and more reasonable regime. Great progress. However, if
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  Speaker 1: a deal is not reached shortly, we will have no
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  Speaker 1: choice but to completely obliterate their electric plants, oil wells,
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  Speaker 1: and possibly all desalinization plants. So this is his straight
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  Speaker 1: of or Moose play out. It's a new regime totally
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  Speaker 1: unverified to keep the dow steady, while the threat to
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  Speaker 1: obliterate water sources keeps oil traders from shorting the market.
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  Speaker 1: So the White House and the President keeps using his
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  Speaker 1: truth social to basically front run the official Pentagon briefings.
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  Speaker 1: Official Pentagon briefings simply create to me a drum beat
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  Speaker 1: of escalation, not de escalation. And there doesn't appear to
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  Speaker 1: be many off rams, and we keep sending in more
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  Speaker 1: folks who would be part of any sort of ground
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  Speaker 1: troop operation if he orders it. So you have that,
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  Speaker 1: then you have the fact that allies have no idea
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  Speaker 1: what we're up to. AP reported that Trump has been
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  Speaker 1: telling allies go get your own oil, and you go
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  Speaker 1: in the straight of Horme moves and get it. We
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  Speaker 1: don't need it. Now, here's something to understand, right, And
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  Speaker 1: this goes to the question of which war is Trump
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  Speaker 1: really wanting to win. He sits here and he's clearly look,
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  Speaker 1: it is no doubt he knows he's boxed himself in.
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  Speaker 1: He's in an impossible situation, right, It is you know, heads,
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  Speaker 1: he loses, tails, we lose. We all are going to
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  Speaker 1: lose here in the short term. And you know this,
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  Speaker 1: we now know why so many presidents before never did this,
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  Speaker 1: realizing the imassive economic global economic impact that this would
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: have hasn't hit yet. But I'm gonna explain that. Frankly,
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  Speaker 1: it's about to come unfortunately. And meanwhile, he just just
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  Speaker 1: trying to He's just trying to win the day, right,
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  Speaker 1: I'll gladly give you a quarter tomorrow for a hamburger today.
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  Speaker 1: Infamous those of you old enough to remember Popeye and
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: the dude that always always always wanted a hamburger today,
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  Speaker 1: he would gladly pay you tomorrow for it. This is
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  Speaker 1: Donald Trump in a nutshell, right. He's just always putting off,
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: just trying to put off, put off. It is just
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  Speaker 1: can he deal with today? Can he deal with today?
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  Speaker 1: And he's kind of he's basically a political day trader
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  Speaker 1: who's obsessive about the stock market itself on it now
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  Speaker 1: here is something that is an uncomfortable truth and it
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  Speaker 1: deserves scrutiny because there's no doubt there is grift and
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: market manipulation going on since February twenty eighth, the S
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: and P five hundred has declined overall, not a surprise.
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  Speaker 1: The war started on February twenty eighth. Of course it's down,
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  Speaker 1: but eighty five percent of the S and P five
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  Speaker 1: hundreds Green days as in days when a majority when
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: the overall S and P five hundred was up, not down,
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: have occurred on a Monday following a Trump piece is
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: coming post. So the point is is here we go again,
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: and he did it again, and he's been doing it again,
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  Speaker 1: and look, should this be investigated? Of course, is his
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: sec going to do anything serious? Of course not right.
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  Speaker 1: All of this is happening in plain sight. And of
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: course we have the other story about I love the
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  Speaker 1: weird denial by Sean Parnell, the spokesperson for Pete hag Set,
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: that Financial Times had this big story about that somebody
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  Speaker 1: representing Pete hag Sets was shopping around looking to make
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  Speaker 1: a big purchase of sort of investments in the defense industry.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: And it's clear the way, And I got to read
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: you the Parnell quote directly on this because parsing it
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  Speaker 1: tells you everything you need to know about what is
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: actually truthful in that Financial Time story sometimes the respokesperson's
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: response actually can firms the story they're trying not to confirm.
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  Speaker 1: So Parnell on X says the following that neither Secretary
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  Speaker 1: Heigsith nor any of his representatives approached black Rock regarding
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: an investment in the defense industrials Active ETF. So it's
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: he's denying the black Rock portion of the story specifically, right,
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: anytime you see a denial of specific details, but sort
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: of not. He never overall denied that any of the
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: that the larger idea that he was looking for an
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  Speaker 1: investment in defense industries and that you know, before the
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  Speaker 1: start of the war, he didn't deny any of that.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: He just denied a specific part of the accusation. Anyway,
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  Speaker 1: the point is it's pretty clear that more of that
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: report is true than not true. And then they as
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: a as a clever spokesperson would do, not an honest
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: and ethical one, but a clever one would do, is
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: you find a Keith a specific fact that you can
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: deny and hang your hat on and then and hope
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: that most people take it as a full denial of
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: the whole story rather than what the denial actually it is.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: But the fact is this is one of those stories
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: where do the details even matter. I mean, the entire
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: Trump administration has been behaving this way. I mean, and
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: there's not really any doesn't seem to be any any
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: negative blowback unless it looks like you're keeping Trump out
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: from getting a cut, like you know, he'll over time
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: get upset. If it looks like you're trying to pull
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: one over on him financially, then he'll get upset. But
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: if you're doing something like this, I mean, look the
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: whole philosophy. I mean, we've seen there was a good
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: study by Pro publica earlier this week about the cases
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: that the Department of Justice, led by Pam Bonni has
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: dropped in. How many white collar cases are just being
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: dropped left and right right. If you look at Donald
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: Trump's pardons, anybody, anybody that is hit with massive fines
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: that have basically been convicted and sentenced to go to
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: prison for what one would call white collar crimes, so
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: financial crimes if you will, it's almost universally an easy
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: pardon for him. I mean, I guess you can say
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: he wants to do unto others as he wants to
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: be treated, and you know, if he thinks financial crimes
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: shouldn't be punishable as felonies, then he's not going to
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: let any of his friends see financial crimes punished as
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: felonies here. So the point is is that, you know,
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: it was amusing to me. That's why I love that.
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: This is why as a reporter it's always really important
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: to ask for a response, because the response can actually
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: tell you more than the story itself. And Parnell's response,
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: in a very specific denial about the black Rock portion
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: of this tells you, oh, there's a lot more truth
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: to this. Just found the one thing that they thought
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: they could hang their hat on that wasn't you know
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: whatever the specifics was right. It's probably an affiliate of
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: black Rock, some entity that's not technically black Rock, but
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: might pop point is he's that we all know that
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: there was all sorts of fuzzy natures of that fact.
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: But you know what is disappointing is this idea that
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: there was no denial that he was looking for investment
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: opportunities in the defense industry before the start of this war.
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: But again, the sun rose in the east and the
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: sunsets in the west, right, this is sort of par
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: for the course for this administration. This episode of the
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  Speaker 1: code toodcast for thirty percent off. And yes, I too,
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  Speaker 1: am a customer. But the question is, and I think
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: that this is a fair question, what is about to
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: happen in this war? Are we going to because now
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: you've got the reports in the Wall Street Journal that
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: indicate Trump is thinking about I mean, that's the other
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: thing thinking about. Just okay, he promised this was only
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: going to be four to six weeks. We've seen the reports.
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: He's kind of bored of the war. He'd probably much
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: prefer to talk about his ballroom, his new plans for
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: a presidential library to become a let's just say for
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: some of us, too prominent of a position in the
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: Miami skyline I just it's a head scratcher to me
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: that a guy who's never lived a day in his
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: life in Miami, has really no serious connections to Miami
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: is going to dot the skyline of Miami in a way.
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, please go put it in New York, Go
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: put it in Trump Tower, Go put it at Fifth Avenue.
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: Hey Penn, how come you don't want the Donald Trump
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: Presidential Library? But I will? But it is what it is.
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: I will just tell you this. If the building, that building,
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: that rendering that Eric Trump sent, I can't I assume
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: Calshi or polymarket of it. Will this building ever be completed?
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: And will it be as tall as they claim? Because
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: you know, it's interesting about about height issues in South
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: Florida's there's only you can only go a certain height
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: on buildings in Miami because you can't it doesn't support. Eventually,
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: you can't dig a you can't dig too far deep
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: to create a stable, a stability underground before you hit
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: the ocean. So I think he's going to be limited
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: in what they actually can do structurally there. So the
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: idea that the actual library building will look remotely similar
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: to the rendering that Eric Trump's sent, I think is
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: quite small. But the point is is that the reports
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump's board with the war, he realizes by the way,
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: he's now at an all time low in his approval rating,
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: all time high in his disapproval rating. The consumer confidence
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: index is now at the same horrible low that it
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: was at the height of the inflationary period in twenty
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: twenty two, which was dragging down the Biden presidency and
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: arguably destroyed destroyed the Biden presidency politically right well, Donald
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: Trump's consumer confidence numbers that the Michigan index are now
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: that low. His approval rating is lower than where Joe
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: Biden was at this point in time. His disapproval rating
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: is higher than it was. His approval rating is lower
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: than it now than it ever was in his first term.
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: And he already had a bad midterm that first term.
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: Of course, he only lost the House, not the Senate
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: in that first midterm. And I think this time, I
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: think it's fairly I think it's fair to say, and
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: that's going to be my top five this week. I
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: think it's fair to say that at this point in time,
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: I think Democrats are favorite to win them both. It
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: would be they have to make mistakes now they have
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: to have bad candidates do bad things in a general
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: election sort of below an opportunity because the environment and
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: the national wins and all of that. Right this is
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: we are now in blue wave territory, pure and simple.
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: It is there. You're looking at twenty. I mean, the
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: House is done. The question really is how much? And
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: some of it will have to do with the various
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: redistricting efforts. I kind of think, you know, the irony
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: just on a quick aside here before you get back
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: to a run. This environment is so good for Democrats
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: at the moment that I think if Virginia did not
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: if they don't pass their maps right now, it's six
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: to five democratic advantage. With this political environment, they're going
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: to be it's going to be a three without remapping
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: anything in Virginia, and they're trying to get ten to one.
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: Probably ends up nine to two. But you know, this
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: is why I think this is such a wasted effort
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: and probably going to be probably going to blow back
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: on the party in Virginia sooner than Virginia Democrats realize here,
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: and the irony is they didn't need it. They didn't
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: really need it. We're talking that maybe this redistricting is
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: going to net them one more seat than the political
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: environment itself would have neted. And to think all of
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: this political capital that Barack Obama's flushing down the toilet,
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: that Abigail Spamberger's flushing down the toilet for one extra
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: seat in an environment that they're probably going to win
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: twenty to forty nationally overall. But look, I'm going to
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: set that aside. Where we are here is this war
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: is a Trump is now in his continues to be
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: in this impossible box. He knows he's got to get
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: out of this war. And yes, America can withstand and
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: energy crisis caused by this war better than most other countries.
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: And so that's why his you know, he's trying to
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: basically say, you worry about it, but that But I'm sorry.
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: If if Europe gets the flu, We're economy gets the flu,
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: We're going to get a cold. All right. We are
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: all interconnected. We are not going to be able to
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: hide from this and this, this, this, and eventually it's
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: going to get worse. And I want to share. I
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: want to share a few interesting pieces that have been written.
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: This came from Liz Hoffman her newsletter in semaphore, and
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: she was trying to explain answer the question why do
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: markets look calmer than they should in this current period? Right,
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: so far, the price of oil hasn't gone as high
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: yet as folks expect, and the Nasdaq correction looks more
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: of it AI driven due to the impact on the
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: investors and some of the major investors in AI right
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: now in the Gulf States. And the question is is
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: this resilience or is this simply complacency? Right? Is the
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: world so flush with money that it can still absorb
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: more risk? And maybe that's true of the American Stock
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: exchange or investors expect another government bailout, right, they've gotten
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: They got so used to government bailing them out of
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: the COVID pandemic or government bailing them out of the
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: credit crisis. Right, But there's a third option, and that
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: is just simply borrow time. Right. We got an oil buffer,
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: we have tankers already at sea, you've had the national
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: reserve releases have already taken place in a lot of countries.
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: But guess what, all of that is going to get
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: exhausted sooner than you think. And the real point that
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: Liz Hoffman was trying to make is that the second
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: and third order effects of this war, or have not
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: let y enda yet. I've not landed yet. We don't
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: yet have crops stunted by fertilizer shortages. We will. We
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: don't yet have blackouts in Asia due to because of
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: how much oil to Asia comes out of the Strait
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: of Ormus. We don't have MRI rationing yet from helium shortages.
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: We will. And we don't yet have grocery price increases
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: from trucking costs. But the promise you we will. Right.
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: All of that is these are these have been lagging
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: indicators and they haven't hit yet. Right. She used a
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: pandemic metaphor, meaning scientists warned us we went to dinner anyway,
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: then we didn't for a very long time. Well, it
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: may be the same slow motion dynamic. Right. EU Energy
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: chief is urging Europeans to cut travel Soul is weighing
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: driving restrictions because of the energy shortage. The last this
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: is important note the last Middle Eastern jet fuel shipment
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: reaches Britain this week, which means, all of a sudden,
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: we're going to have a jet fuel shortage. Twenty percent
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: of the world's oil comes through the Strait of hormones.
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: Forty percent of Europe's oil comes from the Strait of hormones,
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: and we have the first company unil ever citing the
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: war for a hiring freeze. So the point is, all
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: of the fears of what's going to happen haven't hit yet,
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: and Donald Trump's actions have really helped mask a reality
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: that maybe hitting is going to be about to hit
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: us extraordinarily hard in the next four to six weeks,
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: which may explain why he so desperately wants to find
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: a way out. And you know, whether it's he thinks
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: that maybe he can bomb the leadership into submission, I
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: think that is of question. But this is a regime
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: that is no problem killing and its own people as
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: it is. Why does he think making the Iranian people
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: suffer through blackouts and lack of water? This is Donald
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: Trump that it's somehow going to bring the regime to
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: its knees. So I think that is one miscalculation here.
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: So then, of course, you know, if he's got to
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: open the straight of war moves and he's essentially alienated
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: all of our allies for the last year through tariffs
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: and through what he's done in Europe, and through his
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: lack of interest in helping Ukraine and all of that. Right,
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: he's mad at NATO now while he's been treating NATO
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: allies like crap for the last year, he's mad at
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: other countries not helping go get your own oil out
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: of the straight of war moves, and he's been beating
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: them up with tariffs. So of course they don't want
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: to help. But at the end of the day, we're
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: the United States of America. We broke it, we got
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: to fix it. So it does seem as if the
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: military planners are assuming they're going to go in with
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: some minimal ground invasion of some sort to figure out
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: how to open up the straight of hor moves. And
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: once again, once we have started a war we don't know,
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: we don't necessarily have the ability to finish. Yet we
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: pull up states right now, all we do is hand
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: ran more leverage. He walks away. He's basically handing them
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: more leverage over the straight of hoar moves than they
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: had before this war started. So the question I think
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: really is, and it's sort of do you believe what
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: he says or do you believe what they're doing? And
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: if you follow what they're doing. This war is about
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: to escalate. They're about to send in more ground troops,
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: actual ground troops. There's going to be an attempt here,
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: and maybe in his head he thinks commandeering control of
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: Iranian oil means he can trys oil Venezuela oil in
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: Iran and then somehow that might give him leverage with China.
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: I kind of think that's wishful thinking, but it may
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: be a strategy they think they're pursuing at the moment.
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: But I do think this, if you think, what should
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: you believe? Do you believe that he is trying to
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: find a way out of this? If there was an
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: easy way out, I think he already have found that
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: exit ramp and would have left. Or do you follow
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: what they're doing not what they're saying, And what they're
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: doing appears to be a preparation for escalation, and at
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: some point the economy and traders and the markets are
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: going to have to are going to end up accepting reality.
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: They're desperate not to accept reality. In any kind of
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: breadcrumb he drops to be to be used as an
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: excuse to say, well, maybe it's not you know, maybe
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: this isn't going to be as catastrophic as we thought.
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: Traders have grabbed onto it. But when you start to
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: look at these other fundamentals, right, consumers are already changing
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: their behavior. Consumer confidence wouldn't be this low if they
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: weren't changing their behavior. And you're going to see the
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: second and third order effects start, unfortunately cascading very soon
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: and perhaps very quickly. So I hate to be such
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: doom and gloom about it, but I think when you
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: look stare at the situation, then you throw in the
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: fact that the allies that Donald Trump cares about the
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: most in the East are as financial allies. I think
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: he's I think Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Katar have
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: a lot more influence on him than Israel. Does I
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: know the popular mythology is that Israel has all this
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: influence on him. No, no, no, no, it's the people
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: that pay him money that have influence on him. Right.
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: This is why this should be such an important focal
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: point of of being concerned about this, because who's making
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: the strongest arguments now for the United States not to
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: leave and to not end this war until that regime
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: is essentially overthrown. But they don't say overthrown. They say,
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: tamed in some fort, but it's the Saudis, you equate Bahrain.
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: They're all at this point. I think they all regret
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: telling him go ahead and do it, you know, I mean,
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: this is the mistake. Donald Trump does not is not
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: somebody you can rely on long term. You can convince
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump to do something for you short term if
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: he thinks there's benefit to him, but you cannot rely
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: on him to stick to anything and to be a
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: long term partner with you on anybody. And it's a
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: huge mistake the Golf States made. It's what it was
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: interesting and this fight, you know, sort of there's been
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: an interesting fight between the two parties to figure out
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: how to win over the hearts and minds of the
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: Golf States parties. If you know, there was a look,
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: Joe Biden wanted to write those folks off, but the
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: reality was there's too much American investment, too much of
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: the American business community does do business with the Golf States,
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: and every presidential administration needs to be on good terms
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: with them. And the argument that the Biden folks were
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: trying to make to the Golf States, you know, and
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: you know, essentially they were trying to they didn't want
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: to be bought off, and I think the Golf States
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: got lured in because Trump was so transactional ie easy
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: to buy off, and they figure, oh, we can manipulate him,
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: and they can't. The problem is you can't get him
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: to stick to anything. And so they think they're getting
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: what they want. And now I guess you can go
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: to be careful what you wish for. And the Golf
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: States are now the dog that caught the car. They
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: got in the American president to do their dirty work.
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: They've been wanting to get rid of this regime in Iran,
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: arguably with more vigor than the Israelis, and now they
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: don't want us to leave. Now they're petrified because there
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: they are, they are dealing with the second and third
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: order effects and they have a lot more to lose
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: in this situation. And one wonders if they now regret
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: how much they have invested in the Trumps, in the
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: Trump family, thinking that they're getting what they want. Well,
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: they got the foreign policy they think they wanted. Are
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: they sure they wanted this? Is this what they wanted?
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: A global energy recession? Because unfortunately, I have a feeling
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: that's where that's where this is headed one more little
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: note that I wanted to share with you, and this
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: came from a column another Semaphore column from earlier today.
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: And by the way, they have these interesting newsletters by
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: region that I just think are tremendous. They have an
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: African newsletter that I think is really good. They have
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: a Golf State every day and it's a daily newsletter.
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: I never was getting daily news from the continent of
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: Africa or from the Golf States. And I'm certainly glad
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: i am today. So kudos to my friend Justin Smith
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: there and Ben Smith who've done some great work. But
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: what's interesting is this point that someofore makes in this
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: Southern newsletter they do energy newsletter that they do. The
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: war is accelerating the global glean energy transition, they write,
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: and China dominates it. Seventy percent of all green hardware
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: Chinese ev giant Geely is up thirty percent since the
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: war began. The world's largest battery maker CTL is up
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: twenty eight percent. So we are now. America is now
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: a petro state thanks to Donald Trump, because he wanted
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: to get rid of windmills and get rid of anything
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: that was alternative energy other than oil and gas. So
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: we're now a petro state, and China is becoming an
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: electro state at a time when being a petro state
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: is very, very expensive. So the irony is that Beijing
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: has been thinking long term on green energy and the
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: Iran war may have just handed them a decisive advantage,
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: not in the battlefield, but in the supply change as
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: the rest of the world panics about oil, especially if
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: the Straight of Horn Moves is basically a battle a
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: battle field of sorts, if you will, for months on end,
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: you're gonna have a lot of economies around the world
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: desperately trying to transition to green energy, and they're not
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: going to be able to buy supplies from the United States.
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: They're going to be able to get their material from China.
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: So yet another way, so this war with Iran has
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: strengthened Russia, has strengthened China, and basically as weak in
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: the United States diplomatically and certainly our reputation around the world,
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: and the fact that essentially, even though we're winning the battlefield,
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: we're essentially losing in the larger strategic battle, if you will,
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: with China and with Russia. One wonders if that ends
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: up forcing more bad decisions to follow more bad decisions. Right,
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: this is this is the concern. So many folks had
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: this the minute you go open this door on Iran, Right,
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: there were no good exit ramps and here we are. Hey,
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: One more note I want to share. It's a totally
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: totally different subject matter. But number one, it's a newsletter
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: that I think you guys should everybody should subscribe to.
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: You know, with so many questionable news sources when it
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: comes to science these days, especially when it comes to
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: viruses and what Bobby Kennedy Junior has done to eviscerate
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: the credibility of the CDC, the FDA, and of course
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: all things have it with HHS, I started subscribing as
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: something called your Local Epidemiologist, and I have to say
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: it is fantastic. They do a great job. They keep
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: up to date with public health developments, They share actual statistics,
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: actual recommendations. Well, guess what, there's a new COVID variant
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: that is out there, but it's manageable, and I just
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: wanted to read what it is because there's a there's
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: a there's a good warning here. Because what I love
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: about and I just highly recommend especially if you're frankly
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: over the age of fifty, because they do a really
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: good job of sort of dealing with the basic questions. Okay,
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: there's a new COVID variant. What should I do? All right?
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: So this new COVID variant is called the Cicada variant.
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: It's a descendant of omicron. It's been circulating around the
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: globe over time. It is now accounts for eleven percent
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: of US cases. And it's you know, they're basically warning
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: you know. So this is the question, is this going
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: to cause a spring or summer wave? Well, the answer
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: is they don't have much data of how fast it
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: is growing, but their guess is that this will cause
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: a mini wave of sorts. It won't be a nothing burger,
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: nor will it be a tsunami. Then the question is
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: should people over sixty five get a spring COVID nineteen shot?
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: And the recommendation is this, And this is why I
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: want to share it because I know a lot of
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: you are always concerned about this, and again, so great
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: substot your local epidemiologist. Go look it up. Should people
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: over sixty five get a spring COVID nineteen shot? Answer?
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: If it's been at least three months since your last dose.
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: A spring shot is a reasonable call. Timing in around
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: May or June tends to align well with how COVID
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: nineteen seasons typically play out, So look, you're not going
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: to Unfortunately, we can't rely on the actual public health
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: officials to give us sort of normal common sense advice,
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: normal common sense facts about what is actually happening. And
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: so I found that news helpful, and I figured I
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: might as well share it with you guys that you
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: might fund helpful to. This episode of the Chuck Podcast
• 38:16
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  Speaker 1: absolutely am brace, so use that code. All right. Remember
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: April ninth, Local news Day. I hope you've already. I've
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: got a great email the other day from somebody saying
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: that they've, you know, thanks to me harping on this
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: so much. And I think that's what they use, the
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: words harp. It's like, okay, if you want to say
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: I'm harping, I'm harping that they've signed up and subscribe
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: to a local news outlet. So hey, I'm happy to
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: be the harp player for you here. So April ninth,
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: Local news Day. But you don't have to wait till
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: Labor ninth to go find out what good local news
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: is in your neck of the woods. Go figure it
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: out now. But on April ninth, hopefully those local news
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: proprietors will be making it easy for you to find them.
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: All Right, it's my it's Wednesday. Let's do a top
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: five top five And I'm just going to go back
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: to basics here. But the premise of the top five
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: list this week is the premise that I think now
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: it is official. I think in the moment we're in
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: at the moment and this, you know, it's very interesting
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: when it comes. I've always had this debate with my
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: friend Charlie Cook and the folk Namy Walter, the folks
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: over the Cook Report, folks at crystal Ball, the folks
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: inside elections, which is when you do your rankings, do
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: you do it trying to figure out it's based on
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: where you think the political environment is going to be
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: in November or where you are at the moment, right,
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: And I would say, you know, we all will say, well,
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: it's a hybrid, right, And that's where I am. It's
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: a hybrid. I think we are. I think this is
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: a political environment that is that is deteriorating quickly for Republicans. Right.
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: You now have the House and the Senate openly feuding
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: over how to resolve the DHS, the DHS funding crisis.
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: In fact, the fact that House Republicans and Senate Republicans
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: are completely different place on this has bailed out Democrats. Right.
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: I think now Republicans own this more at the moment
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: because the Senate Republicans passed something to do this, and
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: then the House Republicans, I guess, with a little bit
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: of Donald Trump's encouragement, decided to tank it. And so
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: now we're in this uncomfortable situation where yes, TSA employees
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: are kind of getting paid. But anyway, the point is
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: is that every week it seems, you know, this goes
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: back to the Haley barbarism that I've been quoting quite
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: a bit here for those of you that listen a lot,
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: and that as good gets better, bad gets worse. And
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: right now this political environment for Republicans bad is going
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: to worse. Right the Texas situation is not any better.
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: What looked like could be an opportunity for Republicans to
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: save a Senate seat down in Texas with John Cornyn unexpectedly,
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: you know, being the top vote getter in the first
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: round of voting, maybe they could convince Trump to endorse
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: Cornan over Paxton. While that ship is so right, the
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: Paxton folks have bought enough time. Now it looks like
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: Trump's not going to do it, and we know Trump
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: will never back somebody he fears could lose and embarrass
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: him because you know, I think we're going to find out,
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: And my friend Jonathan Martin is a great piece about
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: how May is really going to be the month that
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: we learn how tight is Trump's grip on the Republican Party.
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: Can you run away from Trump. Can you criticize Trump
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: and survive in a primary? Right, It's going to be
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: tested all over the map. Thomas Massey is probably going
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: to be the first test. But that's I think we're
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: gonna we're going to We're going to start. That'll be
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: a big one. And if he succeeds, you're going to
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: start to see I think more Republicans feeling emboldened perhaps
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: to try to chart their own course, because you do
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: get to a point anytime when you're in a political
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: party where the national environment's going south on you. It
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: becomes every every member, especially on the incumbent side, every
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: incumbent for themselves. There's no longer, there's no more team player.
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: It is survival of the fittest, or survival of the
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: of the of the fittest, might be the wrong way,
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: of the of the most pragmatists, or whatever you want
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: to call it, but the point is is everybody kicks
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: into survival mode and we may be in there. So
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: look with that, and you've seen this turn right, there
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: was a new norm, you know. So look Number one,
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: my top five list, top five Senate seats most likely
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: to flip, and the big news on my list this
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: week is there's not going to be a single republicancy
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: a Democratic health seat on my list, and the only
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: one that comes close is Michigan. But I will tell
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: you in a minute why I have no longer put
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: Michigan on that list. But number one continues, and in
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: fact I think it's number one, and there's actually some
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: space now, and that is North Carolina. There's I just
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: saw a recent poll that had Cooper up eighteen points,
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: so I think he's up eighteen points. I don't, But
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: the fact is it seems as if the gap is spreading,
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: it is not closing. You know. Michael Wattley, the form
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: R and C chair, was already trying to do something,
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: and I think was quite hard to go directly from
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: being a national chair, the chair of a national party,
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: to try to win a Senate seat. Tim Kaine pulled
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: this off, but he was also a governor, a former governor,
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: so he had had some he had had some electoral experience.
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: It is much more difficult to basically make this your
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: first entree into into sort of state wide elect the
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: politics like that in general. But you're also you own
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: everything Trump, right, There is no way Whattley can be
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: independent of Trump under any circumstance, and you sort of
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: see it in the numbers. And Cooper doesn't have to
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: deal with a didn't have to deal with any sort
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: of radical left and you know, anybody way to the left.
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: He didn't have to deal with even somebody you know
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: from the from further to his left, but maybe in
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: the mainstream liberal wing of the party. He didn't have
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: to deal with any of that. And if you can
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: avoid a primary in this environment as a Democrat in
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: a purple state like with Carolina, you're gonna have a
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: lot of room to run. So he's number one, and
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: arguably there is huge space now like that is I'm
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: almost at a at a seventy five percent confidence level
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: on that one. You can go take a look at
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: what polymarketer Calshier at and find out where the actual
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: money is. Number two continues to be made. And we've
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: seen even and I look, I'm going to keep it here.
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: At number two. We see the governor Janet Mills has
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: gone a bit scorched earth trying to salvage her you know,
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: we put it this way, her behavior going after Graham.
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: Platner confirms that all the polling is true, Platner is ahead,
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: and he's ahead by a lot. So the fact that
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: he's already ahead and he didn't really have much name
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: minded going into this thing and means it's going to
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: be really hard for her to dislodg him, especially because
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: he has the resources to respond. You know a lot
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: of times, you know, an insurgent like Platner may catch fire,
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: but they don't really have the resources. Once the big
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: bad establishment machine sort of trains its negatived guns on you,
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: it's harder to recover. But he has enough resources to respond.
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: I think he's done a reasonable job responding. And as
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: we see this is you know, when you're in environments
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: like this as a challenger, it is harder as an incumbent.
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: In some ways, both Janet Mills and Susan Collins are
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: incumbents in this situation. Right, One is a sitting governor,
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: one is a sitting senator. Graham Platner gets to be
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: the outsider, whether he's running against in the primary against
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: Mills or he's running in the general against Susan Collins.
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: And if you want to make him the referendum, I
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: get why you want to do it. You try to
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: make his character referendum. The problem is, in a political
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: environment like this, the incumbents it's much harder for an
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: incumbent to change, to change the climate to where it's
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: no longer a referendum on those in office. And I
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: think that's especially going to be difficult for Susan Collins,
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: but I think it's also a bit of a problem
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: for Janet Mills. But the fact of the matter is
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: it won't It may not matter which Democrat wins the primary.
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: Either one right now is ahead of Susan Collins, and
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: that's why it sits at number two. So number three
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: on my list is now Ohio because that is another thing.
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: And this is how you can see things deteriorating. Right,
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: you know, during the presidential election cycle, Shared Brown when
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: he was running in it's you know, he's now running
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: for the other Senate seat technically, right, he lost the
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: Senate c DL before he lost to Bernie Moreno, this
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: is the special technically the special election to fill out
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: the rest of jd Vance's term after he became Vice president.
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: The appointed Republican senators John Houston. And look, when this
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: race began, you saw that the generic Republican advantage in
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: Ohio was holding and Houston would be up by a
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: couple of points. And to me with somebody as well
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: known as Shared Brown, if you're trailing somebody who's less
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: known than you, yes, Houston has run statewide himself, was
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: the elected secretary of state, been a running mate, all
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: of those things. Shared Brown's you know, probably had more
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: than a billion dollars of tv ads run on his
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: behalf of just in just this decade, right in the
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: multiple time, basically since twenty eighteen. So he's a far
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: more well known figure in Ohio than John Houston is.
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: But this is where I've seen that the biggest change
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: in any in sort of the political climate has been
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: with the start of this around war, the negative view
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: that many voters have, particularly independence in the middle throwing
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: the impact on the economy, and now all of the
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: polling has started to show Democrats taking a small lead Ohio.
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: That is hugely significant. You already have a very good
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: challenger candidate here. Look, my skepticism on Brown is still
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: there that it's tough to be a challenger when you've
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: been sort of in office as long as he has.
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: But if the bigger issue is the economy and Trump.
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: You know, I don't know if the Republicans are going
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: to make this a referendum on share Brown. They had
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: a better they did it, they did a better job.
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: It was an easier thing for them to do in
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: twenty four. It's gonna be a little harder now. And
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: again the national political environment you sort of feel it
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: hasn't bottom, hasn't felt fallen yet, but you can hear
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: the cracks. And that's what this war has done, right.
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: It has sort of weakened the floor that Republicans are
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: currently standing on, and there's every chance it could sink
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: down the level sooner than we think. So Ohio, number
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: three on list of most likely to flip. Number four
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: is Alaska, and we've seen Mary Patola again, she's somebody
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: else that appears to be starting in a strong position.
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: I still I think this race is a coin flip
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: at best. But I you know, and I am you know,
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: there is a chance that Alaska short term economy might
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: benefit from the rising cost of energy in some ways.
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: That can happen sometimes to a state that is exporter
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: of oil and gas. So you know, I don't I
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: don't want to fully characterize the economy yet in what
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: it's going to feel like or look like in Alaska,
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: because it might be unique and different given the current
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: circumstances that we're in. But we've already seen early polling
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: indicating Popolo starts an extraordinarily strong position here. I think
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: Dan Selvin's going to be hard to magify, if you will.
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: But because you have Lisa Murkowski sitting there as a
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: sort of closer to being a true independent in the Senate,
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: I think by comparison, he certainly looks more trumpy than
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: certainly Lisa Murkowski. And then I think the question is
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: what is number five on the list? What is the
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: fifth most likely to flip? And I think at this
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: point I'm going to say it's Nebraska. And this is
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: going to be a bit of the surprise. But let
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: me explain why I think Nebraska and Dan Osborne winning
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: as an independent and what kind what that could mean.
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: Some of you may think, oh, it's just wishful thinking
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: that I want to see sort of both parties get
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: challenged here from a third way, from an independent way. Yes,
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: it's true. I think both parties need to need a
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: disruption from the outside as much as they're trying to
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: disrupt each other internally. But my skepticism. Look, I think
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: Pete Ricketts is no debt Fisher, and I don't mean
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: that to not debt Fisher, But I think Ricketts is
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: going to be is already a bit more prepared for
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: this campaign, is probably going to drop more oppo on
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: Osborne than Fisher ever did she waited too long? So,
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: But again, when you're the incumbent and you're having to
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: defend a really bad political environment, it is harder to
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: turn your challenger into to create a referendum on the challenger.
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: It's not impossible. And Ricketts has some deep pockets and
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: has even his own money potentially if he chooses to
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: use it. His father TD Ameritrade at least a piece
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: of that version of the company before it merged with
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: some other aspects of it. But there's some deep financial
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: pockets there. But I think this political environment presents Osborne
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: an even stronger opportunity to win than the presidential environment did. Right.
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: First of all, presidential turnout Nebraska made it even harder
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: for him, I think, to overcome. But the other thing
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: that is still going to be a difficult thing for
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: him to overcome is this idea of well, if he's
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: running against Ricketts, it means he doesn't want Republicans control
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: the Senate. So by default, Dan Osborne, does that mean
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: you want Democrats and Chuck Schumer to run the Senate?
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: How he answers that question, and how he answers that
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: question throughout the campaign is going to matter a lot
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: and his ability to win. If I were in issues
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: and I kept getting asked that question, so which party
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: you're going to caucus with? He goes, Look, I don't
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: you know the easy answers. I don't want Donald Trump
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: running the Senate. I don't want Chuck Schumer running the Senate.
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: I know, when I get elected, I'm going to you know,
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: I'm going to pull together the true independence of the Senate,
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: Lisa Murkowski, Angus King, and whoever wants to be in
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: this independent caucus. And I'm going to try to start
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: an independent caucus, and We're going to make the two
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: parties make their case to us as a group as
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: to which party ought to run the Senate. And I
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: think short of a response like that, there's that Osborne
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: is going to have a hard time convincing. Maybe somebody
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: who's not a big Rickets fan, maybe not a big
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: thuon Er Trump fan, but doesn't want to see Chuck
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: Schumer in charge of the Senate. Right to me, that's
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: the voter. Osborne's got to figure out how to talk
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: to and how to convince that he's serious about being
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: an independant. And that's certainly how I would convey my
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: seriousness about being an independent and basically saying, you know,
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: my goal is not to pick either side. My goal
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: is to work with the Common Sense Center or the
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: common sense senators and we'll decide. You know, we don't
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: want to be sucked up, right, you know, right now
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: Trump and Schumer this is this is part of the problem.
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: And if he can get to a message like that,
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: and I think he has a better shot at getting
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: to a message like that than many other candidates running,
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: then I think that's a recipe there. So for that reason,
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: I am putting Nebraska in the five slot there at
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: this point. Now for this first time, I haven't put
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: Michigan in the top five. And you ask why is that?
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: Because I think the Michigan candidate that is hardest for
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: Republicans to defeat is Mallory McMorrow. And by the way,
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: I've had people mentioned to me that I keep calling
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: her Molly McMorrow. That is one hundred percent accurate in
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: my head. I keep calling her Molly instead of Mallory.
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: Mallory McMorrow. My apologies to you. Maybe this is why
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: we haven't gotten you on yet, I tease. But I
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: think the fact that her candidacy is getting more traction
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: more polling is showing her getting more traction. I think
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: she is probably the nominee that is best suited to
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: unify what is a very splinter Democratic primary. Right. Haley
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: Stephens sort of the Schumer candidate, Abdulsi ed the Elizabeth
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: Warren Bernie Sanders candidate, and there's Mallory McMorrow sort of
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: straddling the fence there. But I think in some ways
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: she has leaned into being the outsider, and outsider is
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: better I think than being establishment or Warren Sanders, progressive, right,
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: outsider and independent. To me is what are the best
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: descriptors to be to be a candidate in twenty twenty six.
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: I would not say being progressive or conservative or I
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: don't think those are the best adjectives to want to
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: have as a candidate. Outsider, independent, I think those are
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: the words that the swing voters of twenty twenty six
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: are going to be looked for. Ask Chuck, Hey, Chuck,
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: this comes from Chase, who I think is the person
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: who invented the ash Chuck five timer club. So he
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: is I think I'm going to make him president. You
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: don't have to just hashtag in anymore. Chase, you are
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: you are? You are the president of the ass Chuck
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: five timer Club. And he asks, Hey Chuck, as the
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: ranking echoes himself the ranking member, not the chair. But
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm making a president. I reserve the right
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: to lob the occasional tinfoil hat question. Those are the
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: rules I wrote them. I could amend them at will.
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: So what exactly is going on with all the alien
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: talk lately? Between Obamas who knows, Trump talking about declassifying everything,
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: jad Van saying aliens might be demons, and Rubio talking
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: about possible long term cover ups. It feels like extraterrestrials
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: suddenly became a bipartisan talking point. So actually something driving
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: this wave of UFO UAP chatter or is this just
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: the world's strangest recurring political subplot best regards? I have
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: to tell you, I you know, I'm one of those
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: who believe, who believes that we're not alone. By the way,
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: I'm obsessed with the Three Body that I think the
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: premise of the TV show on Netflix called the Three
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: Body Problem. I think it is, which come on Netflix.
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: I want my next season. It's been a while. I
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: know it's in a very expensive and my friend Mark
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: Murray read all the novels and he says they're fantast stick.
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: At some point I may delve into myself. But the
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: premise of that one is we find out sort of,
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: you know, almost a couple generations in advance, that these
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: aliens are coming, but it's going to take them a while, right,
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: And so it is, you know, I buy, let you know,
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: I buy the idea that maybe some of these things
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: we see might be probes or something, but they're probably
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: not people. They probably were coming from another entity that
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: are just in the same way we send out you know,
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: if we're sending out telescopes to go look at far
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: off galaxies, if there is another civilization of sorts out
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: there or another species, they're likely doing the same thing, right,
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: So the odds, right, I don't know, can we bet
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: on this on Calchier polymarket. I think the odds are
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: in the ninety five percent area that there is there
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: is extra terrestrial life outside the Earth. But I don't,
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: you know, wh all the increased chatter really hasn't added
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: I'm with you, it hasn't added any new information other
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: than oh okay. So it looks like the military and
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: the government have been keeping track of any time members
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: of the military think they see something they can't identify,
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: but it hasn't really added to anything, right, So I
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: count myself on you know, I think the movie Contact
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: and the TV show Three Body Problem, I think are
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: the ones that best. I think that you know, I'm
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: in many ways. Contact was based on sort of Carl
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: Sagan theories, right I am. I find myself in that
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: camp where the aliens are just going to show up
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: one day. We're going to get years in advance and
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: sort of see this coming. The question is do we
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: see it coming in time? And are they benevolent or malevolent?
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: But I'm with you, I think all of the chatter
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: is it's sort of self fulfilling, right, because the government's
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: released a few more details, more people ask people that
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: used to be in government about it, and more people
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: that used to be in government feel more comfortable talking
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: about it, but they don't have any more information really
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: than any of us ever did. Next question comes from
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: Dean from Long Island. He says, Hey, I understand your
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: point that you can't win a race to the Bob,
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: and I generally agree with your approach, but I sometimes
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: wonder if what we're seeing now feels less like a
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: race and more like a survival moment politically, if one
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: side feels like the rules are being rewritten, is it's
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: still possible to play by the old rules and complete
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: and compete effectively. At what point does the old playbook
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: stop working and something else become necessary. Look, I get,
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: I understand what you're saying, and I will just say
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: that that history's lesson is when you do try to
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: sort of change your principles to fit a moment because
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: you're trying to survive a moment, it is very hard
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: to get back to where you were on the principal
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: side of things. And so I mean, I think I'm
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: guessing you're more writing about sort of my stubbornness about
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: this Virginia remap, which I just think is again this
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: political environment right now it's six'. Five the first and
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: the second in this political environment would both, flip so
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: we'd be at a three without changing the map at.
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: All Virginia, Democrats so now you're going through this entire.
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: Rigmarole you're basically burning whatever political capital out Of Abigails
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: bamberger got for two extra, seats not five extra, seats
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: not four extra. Seats two extra. Seats that's a lot
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: of political capital for two extra. Seats that may not
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: be that. Meaningful, look if it turns Out democrats win
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: by five or, less Then virginia And california bailed the party.
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: Out but it's not as if if that's How democrats
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: win The, house that's no. Mandate that's you, know that's
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: not effective. Control that's technical, control but it's not effective.
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: Control and it doesn't mean the voters really were affirming
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: For democrats control The. House it was, basically you, know
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: anything less than five seats is just sort of a
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: race by race. Contest so look what you, describe, right
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: that is that's the judgment. Call BUT i think if you,
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: want you, know it all comes through short, termism long,
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: termism AND i just think the unintended consequences of of
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: essentially being a, party AND, i you, know this IS
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: i get at this a little. BIT i don't think
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: we're ready to move on from this moment we're living.
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: IN i you, KNOW i sort OF i went deeper
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: on My monday monologue about talking about sort of comparing
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: the era Between jackson And lincoln to the era we're
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: living in now and how long it took us we
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: had seven presidents that basically refused to deal with the
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: actual divide that was the issue that was actually dividing,
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: us which was. Slavery in this era of, polarization we
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: don't seem to be dealing with the issue that we're
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: actually all arguing, about which is who's An american and
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: who should be An? American and what Is? America and
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: until we confront that issue head, ON i don't you,
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: know all these little things we do to game the
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: situation on the left right to try to win power just,
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: delays just puts that, large that confrontation and that issue
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: off yet another election cycle or. Two SO i guess
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: my longer term answer to your point here, Is, dinas
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: this certainly allows you to deal with the omit on firmer,
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: ground but it ain't a. Solution i'm gonna take one
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: more question and THEN i unfortunately we're gonna have to
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: put this. One we don't want to go too long
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: on these. Things last question comes From Scott turner And. Oregon, Hey,
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: CHUCK i listen to your podcast at the. Gym sweating
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: around oldies right rather than to, them helps take my
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: mind off of how much tougher it is to age
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: at my. Age my question has to do with how
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: media outlets handle political. Lies how often ay reporters say
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: there's no evidence for those, claims which makes it sound
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: like the claims might still be true instead of just.
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: False why don't journalists more directly call lies what they?
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: Are and how do reporters keep a straight face when
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: they hear obviously ridiculous Answers, also happy. Baseball your current
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: Nets travail's remind me of being an early nineteen Eighties
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: Oaklan aes fan in nearly empty. Stadiums thanks to all
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: you do Is Scott Seed. Turner Scott Seed, Turner. Oregon,
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: look it is always you. KNOW i think you better
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: be careful when you call somebody a, liar because you
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: know they may truly believe something that isn't. True lying
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: implies sort of, intent, right and how do you? Know
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: can you crawl inside their head and know that they
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: are intentionally misleading you or there or you. Know so
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: that's why you see so many journalists sort of couch.
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: IT i think even in the infamous EXCHANGE i had
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: With kelly And conway And meet The press alternative, FACTS i,
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: said those are, falsehoods AND I, i you, KNOW i
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: lost a little sleep wondering SHOULD i said lies are?
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: Falsehoods AND i think when you use the word, lie
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: you immediately put somebody on the, defensive and then you
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: get to the point where you're no longer having an you,
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: KNOW i am more interested, in, well why do you think?
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: That where did you get your? Information AND i think
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: that that's the better way to, go because then you
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: find out how somebody came to believe what they. Espoused
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: AND i think the role of the journalists rolled in
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: should be more of trying to understand why did you say?
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: That where did you get your? Information that's where the
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: interrogation should go and to help the viewer understand why
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: they're misleading in that. Moment but, look it's A that's
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: the WAY i viewed it is THAT i didn't want
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: to chase people. AWAY i wanted everybody in the. Conversation
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: so that's why you sometimes you, know WE'RE i don't
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: want to say we're playing umpire, referee but it's sort
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: of a little bit more in that territory where if
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: you start throwing, out you, know all of a, sudden
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: we're the debate participant versus being the debate. Moderator SO
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: i guess that's the. Line that's certainly the LINE i
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: was hugging all the, time which is why some people
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: loved it and some people hated. It AND i understand.
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: That all. Right with, that you're going to see me
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: in forty eight hours on twenty eight four, hours as you, know,
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: tonight first night Of, passover SO i will be dropping
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: my next episode not On, thursday but On, friday and with,
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: that i'll see in forty eight hours