Latest / The Learning Corner by Precursor / Episode #93: Vertical AI Today with Nic Poulos of Euclid Ventures

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Episode #93: Vertical AI Today with Nic Poulos of Euclid Ventures · The Learning Corner by Precursor

• 0:00
  AI is software, and so, you know, a lot of people are are kind of, I think, extrapolating.
• 0:05
  You know, they see a headline, hey.
• 0:06
  Software is dead.
• 0:07
  Well, that means all apps are dead.
• 0:09
  Well, that's obviously not the case.
• 0:11
  Right?
• 0:12
  Software stocks have more or less recovered or at least, you know, over over 60%.
• 0:16
  So what does that mean?
• 0:18
  Well, you know, it means maybe SaaS or at least some categories of it are still kinda sticky,
• 0:24
  and it's gonna take a while.
• 0:27
  It's the week of August 31.
• 0:29
  Welcome to the Learning Corner, a Precursor Ventures podcast.
• 0:32
  Welcome to the Learning Corner by Precursor.
• 0:36
  I'm Mia Farnam, and I'm joined by our GP and managing partner, Charles Hudson.
• 0:41
  We're also doing something different this week.
• 0:43
  So instead of our usual three articles, we're sitting down with Nick Polos, general partner
• 0:48
  at Nuclear Ventures.
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  Nick co writes The Verticalist and also co hosts The Verticals podcast.
• 0:54
  It's safe to say we've got one of the sharper minds as it pertains to vertical AI and
• 0:59
  software on the podcast.
• 1:01
  Nick, thanks so much for joining us today.
• 1:04
  Thanks for having me, guys.
• 1:05
  You're too kind.
• 1:06
  Excited to be here.
• 1:07
  Nick, do you mind walking through Euclid, genesis of the fund, what you guys focus on,
• 1:12
  background yourself just quickly for the listeners?
• 1:14
  Yeah.
• 1:15
  Absolutely.
• 1:15
  You know, Euclid is an inception stage fund focused exclusively on vertical AI.
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  So we back founders building AI native solutions suited to specific verticals
• 1:27
  throughout the economy.
• 1:28
  We launched a few years ago, really, to focus in on this first check opportunity vertical.
• 1:34
  And my partner Omar and I, who co founded the fund, we've been focused on vertical platforms
• 1:40
  most of our careers as early stage VCs.
• 1:42
  And we've featured a bunch of your articles and excerpts from podcasts throughout the Learning
• 1:46
  Corners, so we thank you for publishing good content.
• 1:49
  We'll jump into it, and we've bucketed into a couple different themes.
• 1:52
  But at the highest level, we're steamrolling somehow into the end of q three, and it does
• 1:58
  feel like the entire venture world has gathered around vertical AI as the main play.
• 2:04
  And that's been, you know, the fund's conviction since before it even had a name.
• 2:10
  Nick, question for you.
• 2:12
  How has that thesis held up, and what surprised you the most about how fast it's moved and
• 2:17
  gained so much attention over the past year?
• 2:19
  It's been really exciting to see.
• 2:21
  Omar would tell you too, when when we launched the fund, you know, we had to try to explain
• 2:25
  what we even meant by vertical AI.
• 2:28
  You know, why why is this an interesting category?
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  What is the relation to vertical SaaS?
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  There was a lot of explaining.
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  My As partner, Omar, likes to say, when you're when you're explaining, you're losing.
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  We were very eager for for the rest of, you know, the ecosystem to jump in.
• 2:41
  And, you know, I think it was of course, we weren't the only ones that saw it.
• 2:44
  It was inevitable.
• 2:45
  You know?
• 2:46
  You guys have been investing in the space too.
• 2:48
  I think what we've seen now is that there's enormous appetite throughout the rest of the
• 2:53
  economy.
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  So, you know, not not just engineering teams at at massive companies in Silicon Valley, but,
• 2:59
  you know, the medical practices, the trades, the retail stores.
• 3:04
  Literally everyone is looking at what's happening, even if you're not a follower of big
• 3:08
  tech, and saying, well, maybe this can help my business.
• 3:12
  And from my perspective, that is a twenty year opportunity at minimum, and we are in the first
• 3:20
  first half of the first inning.
• 3:22
  So I think it's the most exciting time, you know, to be investing in this space and
• 3:27
  probably as as a VC in general.
• 3:29
  Charles, we've talked about this a couple times in the podcast of folks who kind of moved in
• 3:33
  and out of themes when they become hot.
• 3:36
  On the vertical AI side, are there is there, like, a moment that you can remember of, like,
• 3:40
  when it really felt like people were, like, starting to reach out to be like, this is my
• 3:45
  new thing area that I'm focused on.
• 3:46
  It's critical.
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  When Sarah Towell wrote her post about, like, sell the work, not the software, I think a lot
• 3:53
  of that was, for me, the first time I think I started hearing people say, maybe this will be
• 3:58
  a thing.
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  Maybe you can take this domain expertise.
• 4:00
  Then I think in our ever wandering in the woods for a durable moat conversation we've been
• 4:06
  having as an industry for two years, I think at some point, people said, perhaps knowing
• 4:09
  something about the category that you're building in and what matters and who the
• 4:14
  customers are and what the leverage points are might be better than just generally throwing
• 4:18
  spaghetti against the wall.
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  So I think as people have tried to find something that feels easy to explain but also
• 4:24
  consequential, I think a lot of people figured out.
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  I also think, Nick, it feels to me like there's a bunch of my friends who were vertical SaaS
• 4:32
  investors who were like, how do I not just flush all of my accumulated knowledge about
• 4:36
  these verticals?
• 4:37
  So perhaps I can reuse this by moving into vertical.
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  But the more I read about what you all have written and the more we invest, the more I
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  think there really is a real difference between vertical SaaS and these vertical AI companies
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  just in terms of how they operate, what matters a bit.
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  I mean, you know you know a lot more about that than I do, though.
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  I think we're all we're all trying to figure it out.
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  You know, if you kinda think about the the numbers behind this market opportunity, you
• 5:00
  know, we looked at couple 100,000,000,000 in, you know, an opportunity for for SaaS.
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  Now we're looking at a market of, you know, potentially tens of trillions in terms of
• 5:11
  services and and labor that can potentially be addressed.
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  Obviously, it's not gonna be all of that.
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  Right?
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  But, you know, everything's been shaken up in terms of what makes for a big market when you
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  can, as you said, as Sarah has said, do the work as opposed to just being a software
• 5:28
  solution that you've got to train your workforce on and learn and use yourself.
• 5:32
  And along those lines, we have to kind of talk about the death of SaaS and the conversation
• 5:37
  around it.
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  It's just ever prevalent.
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  In the founder's guide to vertical AI that you guys published, I think there was a quote in
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  there that said AI is still software, and reports of the death of SaaS are greatly
• 5:49
  exaggerated, especially for vertical companies with real workflow dev.
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  Has there been any evolution on that thinking, or where are you where's your head now?
• 5:57
  Yeah.
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  I think there are kind of two two sides to this maybe gripe that we have.
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  I mean, one is just purely semantics.
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  And, you know, I don't know if listeners even care about this.
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  Maybe it's like an inside baseball venture thing.
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  But, you know, if you if you look at what AI is, right, it's it's code.
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  It's software.
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  Right?
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  It we are talking about, you know, user facing maybe they're not crud apps anymore, but
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  they're apps.
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  And so as you think about what software means, AI is software.
• 6:27
  And so a lot of people are kind of, I think, extrapolating.
• 6:30
  They see a headline, hey, software is dead.
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  Well, that means all apps are dead.
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  Well, that's obviously not the case.
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  Right?
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  But I I think the other is that is maybe fueled by by, like, a, you know, a bit of a a mantra
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  we have at Euclid.
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  Bill Gates is probably most famous for it, which is, you know, humans tend to overestimate
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  what can be done in the short term and underestimate what can be done in the long
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  term.
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  You know, extrapolating that, look at public markets, look at software stocks.
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  It's been, I guess, almost a year since SaaS pocalypse or at least the day of it.
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  Software stocks have more or less recovered or at least, you know, over 60%.
• 7:10
  So what does that mean?
• 7:11
  Well, you know, it means maybe SaaS or at least some categories of it are still kind of sticky
• 7:17
  and it's going to take a while.
• 7:18
  I do still think it is a bit overblown.
• 7:21
  But there's some reality to it as well, right?
• 7:24
  I mean, I think we all probably agree that UI, that databases, a lot of things you associate
• 7:31
  with historical systems of record are just not as valuable as they once were, and you need to
• 7:35
  find new modes.
• 7:36
  Yeah.
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  I've I've been talking to a friend of mine all week.
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  He showed me a product, and I was like, well, where's the headless And he's like, what do you
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  he's like, I'm just done with other people's UIs, and I feel like there's a lot of
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  conventions in software, things that we've struggled that used to be points of
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  differentiation, points of pride for developers where I'm just like, I I kinda don't care care
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  anymore.
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  And as a software buyer, I've noticed the things I care about and prioritize.
• 8:03
  So I told our CFOs, like, I don't think I'll ever buy another software product that doesn't
• 8:07
  have an MCP server and a REST API that I can hit with whatever agent I want of choice.
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  That's like a must have product requirement.
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  I still get pitched by vendors who are like, oh, we're working on it.
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  I'm like, well, I can't use what you have today with the way I work if you don't have these
• 8:22
  things.
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  And that was not something I said a year ago.
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  Nick, is that what you're seeing too across the market?
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  Like, that is what customers are asking, and you can't really fall below that line?
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  I think it depends on what what world you're in.
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  If you have folks that are on the cutting edge that are trying to develop things, and we are
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  internally, obviously, all start ups, Silicon Valley, like, you need that now.
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  Right?
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  That, like, Charles, like you said, I mean, it is it is table stakes.
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  I mean, we literally dropped our old CRM because that, you know, that that process is
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  moving too slowly.
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  And it's like, you know, you gotta read the writing on the wall.
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  But I would say, you know, if you are in a category that, you know, kind of a real world
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  vertical, right?
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  So let's say you're an outpatient physician's practice or, you know, you're a roofing
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  contractor, you you may not care as much.
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  You may care more about, you know, what have you done for me lately and what work are you
• 9:14
  gonna handle soup to nuts.
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  And so I think eventually that sort of interoperability will be critical because
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  that's just where the world's going.
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  But I think there are some categories, some of the legacy ones where SaaS adoption still isn't
• 9:29
  that high.
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  And so maybe they just wanna skip it, they want you just to do the work for them, they don't
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  wanna get in the weeds.
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  I was like, one of my other questions for you was just I think when I first heard of vertical
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  AI, I think a lot of people said, oh, this is gonna be for these, like, very niche, small,
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  previously unaddressable areas.
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  But I'm like, but why can't it be for everything?
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  Like, why why like, vertical AI doesn't have to mean small niche, previously uninteresting.
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  And I I'm just curious, like, how you're thinking about how broad the thesis is has
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  evolved as you guys have lived with it.
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  I mean, I think this is a common interpretation of whether it's vertical SaaS or vertical AI
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  is, okay, that means it's like some hyper specific thing.
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  And there's room for those too.
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  But at the end of the day, the way I see it is, you know, you need you need solutions across
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  the entire economy.
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  You need solutions for retail, for supply chain, for pharma, for investment banking, for
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  podcasters.
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  Right?
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  And some are small, but a lot are really big.
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  And to be honest, if we can address, you know, services, if if we can perform tasks that
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  historically only humans could, soup to nuts with AI, then your TAMs and your ACVs as a
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  startup can be much broader.
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  And we are seeing this.
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  We are seeing a lot of founders building in vertical categories we've invested in.
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  Historically, mindset was this is like a hard ceiling of $20.30 ks ACV.
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  But when you get in there and you say, hey, we can do this, we can do that, we can do soup to
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  nuts, we can be you know, the CRO you never had, whatever it is, like, they're willing to
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  pay so much more.
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  So I think we need to rethink some of these things.
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  You know, the way I think about it internally is that in the world of AI, right,
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  specialization is the dividing line.
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  There are horizontal specializations, but by nature vertical is specialized.
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  Whether you're training a model or you're just building that ecosystem, like a harness or a
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  headless system, you're collecting specialized data.
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  The future is specialization, but that specialization can be big or small.
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  That bridges in well to the conversation around defensibility.
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  I think also while investors have gathered around vertical AI as their new favorite place,
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  I think founders had also realized that as well.
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  So what, Nick, is your version of defensibility right now in vertical AI?
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  I know some people lean hard on prior experience that's deep.
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  Others have advocated for speed and go to market.
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  What are you thinking there?
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  I mean, it's funny.
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  In a lot of ways, we feel that there are really two primitives of defensibility that really
• 12:07
  haven't changed from software to AI.
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  The first is data, and the second is workflow.
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  Maybe the formats have changed, but, you know, I think long term defensibility for startups we
• 12:16
  invest in, we think about one data.
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  So this could be first order data, so proprietary data that, you know, let's say
• 12:23
  you're Thomson Reuters and you've been annotating case law for forty years with
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  humans.
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  That's something probably no one else has.
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  You know, you also have the second order data, which is basically just understanding how
• 12:34
  people do things.
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  Right?
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  If you think about how historically a an accountant would go about handling taxes, well,
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  sure, you may know how to do the math, but like the exact steps in the process, that is data.
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  And in a lot of ways it hasn't been abstract out of humans' heads.
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  So one category is data.
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  I mean, second is workflow.
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  And, you know, I think in some ways still integrations, some of which are open, some of
• 13:02
  which are hard and require partnerships, can still be, you know, defensible.
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  But I think you also have things like network effects.
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  Right?
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  So if you have stakeholders in an industry, so let's say in construction, you got GCs on
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  board, you got subs on board, you got architects on board.
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  Having everyone there, I think we all can understand how that's defensible.
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  And last, I would say, in that larger workflow bucket, you know, you have platform effects.
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  So if you can do everything for someone, functions a, b, c, and d, you just get harder
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  to pull out.
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  You know, I think that's is still valid as well.
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  So those are our two pillars still.
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  And then in an diligence conversation, a founder walks in the door.
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  Those are kind of the answers that you want when you're having that first conversation, or
• 13:45
  how do you kind of want it delivered to you?
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  I think our firm's invested at similar stages, which, you know, is very early, is the easy way
• 13:52
  to put it.
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  And so I don't expect a founder to know all of the answers, but I do expect them to have a
• 13:59
  vision and for that vision to align with one of those.
• 14:02
  Look, the other things you mentioned, speed, okay, you can argue whether technically it's a
• 14:07
  moat, it's table stakes in my view, you gotta have it.
• 14:10
  The right to build that thing, the knowledge to build it, to know what to build and to see that
• 14:14
  vision, that's also critical.
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  And so I wanna hear that knowledge.
• 14:17
  I wanna hear that earned insight of what's the data that matters, what's the workflow that
• 14:22
  matters.
• 14:22
  Charles, anything that's evolved in your thought process when you think about
• 14:25
  defensibility in this space?
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  So much of the search for the moat, I think, has been this, like, desire to find a silver
• 14:31
  bullet.
• 14:32
  In talking to lot of our portfolio companies, I'm like, it's not one thing.
• 14:36
  It's like having a good platform, having good onboarding, having good customer service,
• 14:41
  knowing something about your customer, actually caring.
• 14:44
  The it's all of these little things that all add up.
• 14:48
  Whereas I think before in the SaaS world, it was lines of code.
• 14:51
  Like, I've got a I've got a three year head start on you because there's no way for you to,
• 14:55
  like, quickly catch up technically.
• 14:58
  And I think a lot of those technical moats, there was this comfort in them.
• 15:01
  You're like, oh, that company's been writing code for three years.
• 15:04
  They must have something that's hard to replicate.
• 15:06
  And now a lot of things I just mentioned, like customer service, caring, a good platform,
• 15:12
  those are things that are harder to observe externally.
• 15:15
  And it's funny, Nick.
• 15:17
  Like, I like, you probably I buy a lot of software for precursor.
• 15:20
  We we buy more software now than ever.
• 15:22
  And my experience dealing with vendors across the landscape, even selling the same product,
• 15:26
  is, like, radically different.
• 15:28
  Some people are like, hey.
• 15:29
  We wanna make this work for you.
• 15:30
  We've got all these things we can do for you.
• 15:32
  We're gonna come in and and do the work for you.
• 15:34
  And other people are like, here are API docs.
• 15:37
  And you just realize until agents are making these decisions on behalf of customers, some of
• 15:41
  the human facing stuff does matter at the margin, particularly if the products feel the
• 15:46
  same to the end user ex ante.
• 15:48
  I think this is a really good point.
• 15:50
  In this market, everything is changing.
• 15:52
  Like, three months ago, six months ago, right, you know, how how people are structuring their
• 15:56
  harnesses or what models they're using for what, it all changes.
• 16:00
  But I think the what doesn't change is that distribution matters because the more customers
• 16:06
  you're solving these problems for, the more you learn.
• 16:09
  And, you know, probably the more you're locked in.
• 16:12
  And so customer support for deployed engineers, whatever you want to call them, that's a thing
• 16:18
  right now.
• 16:19
  Moving into a different direction, the Euclid team, you guys published a great report, the
• 16:23
  2026 vertical report back in April, I think.
• 16:26
  And you shared that vertical AI captured around 56% of exit value with a median vertical exit
• 16:33
  value of around 500,000,000.
• 16:35
  And we've talked about how that used to be a really strong exit, but today's market has
• 16:40
  really shifted the narrative around of, like, what is quote, unquote good look like and mean
• 16:45
  to different groups of people.
• 16:47
  How are you thinking about that venture and fund math?
• 16:50
  I feel like you've said a couple things about that on LinkedIn and different places as well.
• 16:54
  It's always helpful to take a step back and kind of immerse yourself in reality in a world
• 16:58
  that just wants to talk about OpenAI and Anthropic all day.
• 17:03
  I mean, not to say that I mean, those are a big part of our reality now.
• 17:07
  But in terms of you know, as as managers, in terms of thinking about liquidity, I think it's
• 17:12
  helpful to remember that, like, a $500,000,000 exit still is a great exit.
• 17:16
  You guys have been in the industry for a while now too.
• 17:18
  If that doesn't move the needle for your fund, I think that's tough.
• 17:23
  You know?
• 17:23
  And I mean, look, it's different if you're you have do 100 investments a year and all
• 17:28
  strategies on the spectrum can work.
• 17:30
  You know, I think if the way I've I've thought about building Euclid along with Omar is, you
• 17:35
  know, we want to have significant stake in the companies that we support because, one, that
• 17:40
  allows us to be really hands on and work with our companies and help them.
• 17:44
  But also because, you know, if there's a win, of course, primarily we want it to be the
• 17:49
  founder's win, but we want it to be game changing for Euclid too.
• 17:52
  And so we the trick is, I think, investing in businesses that we feel have that right tail,
• 18:00
  you know, that could be Decacorn's plus if everything goes right.
• 18:05
  But, you know, I think the beauty of Vertical AI is that you do have more optionality for,
• 18:12
  you know, real exits if that that maybe come earlier.
• 18:16
  And those can be game changing for the fund.
• 18:18
  Like, there's not many categories where the median exit value sits at that high of a value,
• 18:22
  which speaks volumes about the potential of where it sits.
• 18:25
  I mean, I personally also think, and maybe side point real quickly here, but there are a ton of
• 18:32
  strategics, but also just legacy vertical SaaS companies out there that are $5.10,
• 18:37
  $30,000,000,000 companies that do not have an AI strategy.
• 18:42
  And they probably have a CEO who's talking about something, and it's probably BS.
• 18:48
  And all of their incentives are aligned towards paying down their debt or whatever else it is.
• 18:54
  Right?
• 18:54
  And eventually, these companies are gonna have to look around and realize we need a strategy.
• 18:58
  You know, I think if I were to make a prediction, sometime in the next couple years,
• 19:02
  I think we're gonna see a renaissance of this sort of mid market M and A in the, you know,
• 19:07
  couple 100,000,000 to couple billion dollar range.
• 19:09
  Which can still be substantial for funds that are sized appropriately.
• 19:13
  Like, those don't
• 19:14
  those move the needle.
• 19:15
  100%.
• 19:16
  It's basic math, but I think easy to lose track of in a world where, you know, you've got
• 19:21
  trillion dollar companies.
• 19:22
  Moving kind of into the last segment, I know you made a couple predictions before the end of
• 19:26
  the year of 2025.
• 19:28
  One of the things you projected was that deep tech as a category was gonna fragment.
• 19:34
  Do you think that's happening now?
• 19:37
  And if so, what have been the signs that have illustrated this for you?
• 19:41
  It doesn't seem to me to be happening quite yet outside of the fact that defense has really
• 19:46
  taken on kind of its own thing just because so much is poured into it.
• 19:51
  And I think for the really successful ones, makes sense.
• 19:54
  Like, those will specialize in defense and navigating government probably is its own
• 19:58
  thing.
• 19:59
  But I don't know.
• 20:00
  I think you've kind of like I'd be curious to get your guys' view too, but I think you kinda
• 20:05
  see this packaging and repackaging effect in Venture where, like, you know, deep tech
• 20:11
  becomes a thing when people feel like they need an escape from software for whatever reason.
• 20:16
  But then you kind of turn around and you say like, well, Okay, what actually is this?
• 20:21
  Because biotech, hardware, defense, all very different things.
• 20:26
  Or even some people will bucket in AI infrastructure in there.
• 20:31
  So I don't know.
• 20:31
  I'm sure that, to be honest, the many very, very smart allocators that are out there
• 20:38
  probably already think about it that way.
• 20:40
  But yeah, I mean I I think at some point you'll probably see some of those categories go the
• 20:46
  way of, you know, green tech in the Solyndra era and like it just doesn't work.
• 20:51
  It's too expensive.
• 20:52
  It burns too much money.
• 20:53
  And some will, you know, kind of break out and be their own thing.
• 20:57
  I'm old enough inventor to remember when a lot of firms had, like, health care and IT
• 21:01
  practices.
• 21:01
  They had, like, two firms under the same umbrella, well, needless to say, IT mostly won.
• 21:07
  I think given the scales of these industries, it's inevitable that I mean, I think we already
• 21:11
  have some defense only deep tech specialist firms, and I think the desire for people to
• 21:18
  create specialist firms as a way to stand out, that will continue on a
• 21:22
  One last production prediction before we close out the show, but at the end of last year, you
• 21:26
  also predicted that religious institutions would either issue guidance on AI or start
• 21:30
  sanctioning AI tools for their communities.
• 21:33
  Have you been able to keep a pulse on where that is now that we're almost through with
• 21:37
  2026?
• 21:37
  And where do you sit on that one?
• 21:39
  I can't claim that I've kept a really close pulse on it, but, you know, I I mean, I have
• 21:42
  seen that, not to say that platform Catholicism over all others, but the pope is is fairly
• 21:47
  visible.
• 21:48
  And, I mean, I think he's made pretty consistent, you know, statements.
• 21:51
  I don't know if we've seen, like, a formal and cyclical on can you use AI to worship?
• 21:57
  But I I think it's inevitable.
• 21:59
  I mean, it's a there are obvious eventual moral questions that surround it, and so seems it
• 22:05
  seems to be going in that direction.
• 22:06
  I feel like I've never seen as many deals as I have this past year.
• 22:09
  Maybe it's the tailwinds of so many people rushing into religious communities than years
• 22:13
  prior, and that's a whole other conversation itself.
• 22:16
  But then that speaks to the begs question the for the organizations that are hosting those
• 22:19
  communities, like, what are they leveraging to build a better connection with them and a
• 22:22
  better front door?
• 22:23
  I've had way more, chats with founders building in that space.
• 22:27
  So it's almost a convergence of it.
• 22:28
  I don't know if we're quite yet there I think a mainstream one fits, shoes fits all, but it's
• 22:33
  definitely on the top of my brain.
• 22:34
  We are all out of time today.
• 22:36
  Nick, thank you so much for joining us in Learning Corner.
• 22:40
  Charles, of course, thanks for shopping in as well.
• 22:42
  Thank you so much to our listeners for jumping in as well.
• 22:45
  Please like and share, with friends, and we will talk with you all next week.
• 22:49
  Thank you.
• 22:49
  Bye.
• 22:50
  Thank you so much, guys.