Latest / THE DAILY BRIEF / Joe CALLS OUT donors ‘sitting on their wallets’ as polls shift in GOP states TOWARDS Democrats

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Joe CALLS OUT donors ‘sitting on their wallets’ as polls shift in GOP states TOWARDS Democrats · THE DAILY BRIEF

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: As a politician, I always looked at trend lines. I
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: always looked at trend lines and polls. I didn't care
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: what the poll that day was.
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  Speaker 2: Show me the last five polls.
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  Speaker 1: Texas is actually trending in a way that doesn't really
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: surprise me, showing that Tallarico's up right now.
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  Speaker 2: But I will say some of those other New.
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  Speaker 1: York Times, well, and Alaska, you've got a candidate in
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  Speaker 1: Alaska who knows it statewide and has won it statewide.
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  Speaker 1: But I will say a lot of those other New
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  Speaker 1: York Times polls Very, very close. And and, you know,
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  Speaker 1: the hundreds of millions of dollars Republicans have in the
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  Speaker 1: advantage of dumping money there could make the difference in Iowa,
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  Speaker 1: in Nebraska, in Kansas.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, we'll see. Yeah, look, the smartest thing the
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  Speaker 2: Republicans did last week was cut bait on North Carolina.
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  Speaker 2: Roy Cooper is going to win that race and move
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  Speaker 2: money to Kansas. That New York Times poll showed Kansas
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  Speaker 2: is tied in the Senate, which is extraordinary. You know,
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: the conditions are just right. Democrats have a good candidate
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: and Roger Marshall's got some challenges. So, look, I think
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  Speaker 2: the money may be enough in Kansas, but it's not
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  Speaker 2: going to be easy. And there's a reason why they're
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  Speaker 2: doing triage now, because they're just they're not going to
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  Speaker 2: flip Georgia. They're not going to hold North Carolina. And
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  Speaker 2: they got to now go to some places that demand money.
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  Speaker 2: And obviously, Kansas is the biggest one. But, Joe, it's
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  Speaker 2: not a good sign a month from the election. When
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  Speaker 2: you get a raft of polls like this back and
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  Speaker 2: you're working on Republican campaigns and the best news besides
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  Speaker 2: Susan Collins, which continues to be a unicorn in American politics,
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  Speaker 2: the best news besides that is you're only tied. in
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  Speaker 2: Kansas and Iowa. It could be worse in Kansas and Iowa.
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  Speaker 2: But it's just that bad of a cycle right now.
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  Speaker 2: It's just that ominous where they're trying to save whatever
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  Speaker 2: they can, and they're going to be able to save
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  Speaker 2: a few of these Senate races. And I read about
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  Speaker 2: this over the weekend, a lot of these Gov races
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  Speaker 2: because of money, but they can't save all of them.
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  Speaker 2: And some of these races are just going to go
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  Speaker 2: down with the cycle because when the wind blows, Joe,
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  Speaker 2: it just it takes down some places you wouldn't have
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  Speaker 2: otherwise expected. And the wind's blowing. It really does.
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  Speaker 1: And you know, the wind does seem to be blowing
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  Speaker 1: pretty hard in the Democrats direction.
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  Speaker 2: I will say, loved your article.
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  Speaker 1: This weekend because looking at the state of Florida, David
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  Speaker 1: Jolly's a guy that despite. Despite the fact that everybody
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  Speaker 1: in this state, including me, six months ago was saying
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  Speaker 1: there's no way Democrats can ever win statewide here again
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  Speaker 1: for a very long time. David Jolly could win statewide
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  Speaker 1: in this race. He just I mean, every ad that's
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  Speaker 1: out there is an ad bashing him for some made
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  Speaker 1: up hurricane tax or some other stupid thing because they
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: can't run against David as a Radical because he's a
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  Speaker 1: former Republican congressman. He's as moderate as the day as
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  Speaker 1: the day is long. He fits Florida voters probably far
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  Speaker 1: better than the Republican nominee. And yet Democrats, for some reason,
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  Speaker 1: you know. They like the exciting races. They like the
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  Speaker 1: national races. They like the Senate races. They don't understand
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  Speaker 1: the importance of having a Florida governor and a Texas
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  Speaker 1: governor changes political maps for years to come, or at
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  Speaker 1: least stops Republicans from gerrymandering those maps in the biggest
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  Speaker 1: Sunbelt states.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's enormously important to win these governor's races if
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  Speaker 2: you're a Democrat, especially as the census looms, because a
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  Speaker 2: lot of House districts are moving south because of the
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  Speaker 2: redraw that's coming in 2030. And also, Joe, because of
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  Speaker 2: the presidential map. So you've got two of the three,
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  Speaker 2: you know, federal chambers, the House and the presidency that
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  Speaker 2: really hang on the coming 2030 redraw after the census,
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  Speaker 2: because guess what? Leading on the blue wall of the
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  Speaker 2: Midwest ain't going to do it anymore for Democrats. And
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  Speaker 2: if they can't be competitive in Florida and Texas every
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  Speaker 2: four years in the presidential, they're going to have a
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  Speaker 2: really hard time getting to 270. So you've got to
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  Speaker 2: get Florida and or Texas onto the map. But they
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  Speaker 2: have a shot this year, Joe. And you mentioned it
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  Speaker 2: at the top of your comments, which is that Twenty four,
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  Speaker 2: there was a snapback to Trump and the Republicans in
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  Speaker 2: Texas and Florida, for that matter. And why was that? Well,
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  Speaker 2: that's because younger and nonwhite voters and there's lots in
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  Speaker 2: both Florida and Texas came back to the Republican Party. Well,
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  Speaker 2: guess what? Because of ICE, because of the economy, because
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  Speaker 2: of the Iran war, a lot of those same nonwhite
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  Speaker 2: young voters are now up for grabs or leading Democrats.
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  Speaker 2: So Democrats do have a shot in Florida and Texas.
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  Speaker 2: But they're not going to win there if they don't
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  Speaker 2: have anywhere near the money. And they're getting wildly outspent
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  Speaker 2: on the air in the GovRaces in those two states
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  Speaker 2: because you just can't get Democratic donors nationally to engage
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  Speaker 2: in GovRaces. They don't know who the candidates are. They
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: can't understand why it matters to them. And they just
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  Speaker 2: see a straightforward question of, if we control the Senate,
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  Speaker 2: we can block Trump. And that's understandable. It is. But
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  Speaker 2: if you look a couple of sort of chess moves
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  Speaker 2: down the board, Joe– Boy, these governor races really, really matter.
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  Speaker 2: And I think more than just the straight fact of
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  Speaker 2: are we going to have 51 or 53 seats in
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  Speaker 2: the U.S. Senate next year? Right.
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  Speaker 1: Well, again, especially in states like Texas and Florida. And
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  Speaker 1: you totally you can you can block Donald Trump for
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  Speaker 1: two years so you can control the future. That's how
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  Speaker 1: Republicans think.
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  Speaker 2: That's it.
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  Speaker 1: From from the governorships to school boards. Republicans invest in
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  Speaker 1: the future. That's why they've dominated local politics in so
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  Speaker 1: many areas for so long. I want to talk this morning, though, Mara,
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  Speaker 1: about a mirage. And and I I'm probably alone here.
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  Speaker 1: But I think the Kamala, and I'm bringing this up
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  Speaker 1: because Democratic donors are so freaked out by what happened
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  Speaker 1: in 2024. Oh, they're so left wing. They're such radicals.
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  Speaker 1: They can never win these races. I gave money in
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  Speaker 1: 24 and look what happened.
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  Speaker 2: There's a mirage here.
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  Speaker 1: They're so shattered by Donald Trump winning in 24 that
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  Speaker 1: They didn't look at all.
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  Speaker 2: The other races.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, I keep reminding people, go back and look
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  Speaker 1: what happened in all the swing state Senate races in
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  Speaker 1: 24 and the governorships in 22 when Democrats are supposed
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  Speaker 1: to lose. In 24, a Jewish woman wins in Nevada,
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  Speaker 1: a swing state senator's race. In Arizona, a really progressive
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  Speaker 1: Hispanic man wins. This is supposed to be the year
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  Speaker 1: of Joe Rogan, right? In Wisconsin, a lesbian gets reelected.
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  Speaker 1: In Michigan, a woman wins in Michigan.
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  Speaker 2: I can go on and on.
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  Speaker 1: You know, and even in Georgia in the preceding years,
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  Speaker 1: a black man wins in Georgia. A Jewish man wins
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  Speaker 1: in Georgia. You have Dave McCormick, who was a very
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  Speaker 1: good candidate for Pennsylvania, who had lost in 22, took
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  Speaker 1: great notes, knew exactly what he had to do to
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  Speaker 1: win in 24. Dave McCormick was the exception to the
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  Speaker 1: rule of, weirdly enough, in 2024, a huge Democratic night.
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  Speaker 1: If this is a blue tsunami in 26, we're going
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  Speaker 1: to look back and people are going to go.
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  Speaker 2: Oh, wait.
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  Speaker 1: Over the last two election cycles, Democrats have won 20
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  Speaker 1: have won 90 percent. They could be saying this 90
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  Speaker 1: percent of every swing state Senate race. And yet here
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  Speaker 1: you have Democratic donors sitting on on their wallets because
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  Speaker 1: they're so freaked out that Kamala Harris lost.
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  Speaker 3: No, it's true, Joe. And I think we don't talk
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  Speaker 3: a lot about the process of how those Democratic donors
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  Speaker 3: are recruited and cultivated. But actually, you know, those conversations,
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  Speaker 3: in my experience, tend to be very insular. They tend
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  Speaker 3: to happen between just a handful of Democratic officials who
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  Speaker 3: go out and cultivate these relationships themselves. And in some
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  Speaker 3: ways that works for the party, but in other ways,
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  Speaker 3: the donors don't get a full sense of the landscape
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  Speaker 3: that they need. And of course, you have really talented
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  Speaker 3: candidates across the party like Cooper, like Ossoff, who kind
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  Speaker 3: of are independent in that and they make their own relationships.
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  Speaker 2: But I think the.
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  Speaker 4: Democrats do have a problem.
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  Speaker 3: They have to get their donors to be a little
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  Speaker 3: bit more bullish on races outside the box.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah.
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  Speaker 4: And Mara, I mean, I wrote on this last week
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  Speaker 4: about the growing Republican anxiety that that simply they don't
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  Speaker 4: feel like the president has given them anything to run
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  Speaker 4: on here.
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  Speaker 2: And now our closing.
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  Speaker 4: Argument this weekend appears to be about daylight savings time.
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  Speaker 4: And that there are so many who are just scrambling
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  Speaker 4: to make sense. And they do say, Joe, you and
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  Speaker 4: I have been talking about this for a long time,
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  Speaker 4: of course. that when things tip, they tend to tip
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  Speaker 4: one way and one way hard. And there are Democrats who,
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  Speaker 4: despite their inherent pessimism, are starting to feel very optimistic
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  Speaker 4: and are looking to expand the map. And yes, when
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  Speaker 4: in places that six, eight months ago would have been unlikely,
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  Speaker 4: that's Iowa, Kansas and the like. But David Drucker, there
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  Speaker 4: are a few states. where they're taking a different tack.
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  Speaker 4: And let's be clear, Democrats are benefiting because Donald Trump
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  Speaker 4: and Republicans are so unpopular. Democrats have done a little
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  Speaker 4: better in rehabilitating their own image. They're more trustworthy on
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  Speaker 4: certain issues. But Democrats, as a brand, still pretty, poll
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  Speaker 4: pretty poorly. And certainly part of the country in particular.
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  Speaker 4: And you've been looking at your latest piece for Bloomberg Opinion.
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  Speaker 4: A couple of states, Nebraska, South Dakota, even Idaho, where
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  Speaker 4: the Democratic Party is backing more or less independence to
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  Speaker 4: try to win there because they know their own party can't.
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  Speaker 5: Yeah, I think it's indicative of the fact that in
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  Speaker 5: so much of what we like to think of as
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  Speaker 5: red America, right, these deep red states that are culturally
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  Speaker 5: and otherwise violent. very conservative, but I'd emphasize the cultural
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  Speaker 5: issues in that regard. The party's brand continues to be weak,
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  Speaker 5: and it's one of the reasons why throughout the Trump
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  Speaker 5: era we've seen Democrats have a tougher time with the
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  Speaker 5: electoral college map. But as I made, the point I
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  Speaker 5: made in the columns was that where Democrats are running
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  Speaker 5: quality candidates, and actually where they're just running as Democrats,
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  Speaker 5: these are the conservative states, the red states, where Democrats have,
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  Speaker 5: at this point, a better than fighting chance of winning
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  Speaker 5: on Election Day and flipping the Senate.
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  Speaker 2: And I think that's the key, right?
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  Speaker 5: When we get back to these comparisons about what happened
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  Speaker 5: in 2024, at the Senate level versus the presidential contest,
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  Speaker 5: and we look at what's happening now, Jonathan, you're right
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  Speaker 5: to point out, as in most midterm elections, the party
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  Speaker 5: that seems strong is in many ways just benefiting from
• 10:52
  Speaker 5: the fact that the ruling party, the party that controls
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  Speaker 5: the White House, is weak and voters are extremely dissatisfied.
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  Speaker 5: But if Democrats win the Senate, It won't simply be
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  Speaker 5: because Republicans are weak. It's going to be because when
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  Speaker 5: you look at Texas and Alaska, you look at Ohio
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  Speaker 5: and Iowa in particular, but obviously we talked about North Carolina.
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  Speaker 5: These are really good candidates, right? Look at Georgia. They're
• 11:20
  Speaker 5: candidates who are fitting their states.
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  Speaker 1: Right.
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  Speaker 2: They're responding to who these voters are.
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  Speaker 5: You can look at a Josh Turek ad in Iowa
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  Speaker 5: where he says he'll work with President Trump on border security.
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  Speaker 5: You can look at Texas where James Tallarico is disavowed many.
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  Speaker 2: Of the sort of far left candidates.
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  Speaker 5: Kooky things that he said when he was just a
• 11:40
  Speaker 5: state senator from the Austin area. And that's what people
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  Speaker 5: wanted to hear. So these are candidates that want to win,
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  Speaker 5: that know what it takes to win. And it allows
• 11:48
  Speaker 5: voters who normally vote Republican to say, hey, not so bad,
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  Speaker 5: considering that I'm unhappy with the alternative. And that's the key.
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: Hey, it's Rachel.
• 11:59
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• 12:25
  Speaker 5: Thanks.