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Markets, Labor, And The Supply Chain · Bloomberg Intelligence

0:00
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney. Alongside
0:04
Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring
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Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along
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Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast
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Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and
0:18
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Let's check in with
0:23
Speaker 1: Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist and head of client
0:26
Speaker 1: portfolio Management at Federated Hermes. Uh. They are big folks,
0:30
Speaker 1: over six hundred billion dollars in assets under management. Phil.
0:34
Speaker 1: I'm an equity investor. I'm looking at two I see
0:38
Speaker 1: rates are gonna be rising. I see the economy is
0:41
Speaker 1: going to be slowing. Is there any place for me
0:44
Speaker 1: to be in the equity markets? Uh? Yeah, It's certainly
0:48
Speaker 1: going to be a more volatile year, certainly going to
0:50
Speaker 1: be a choppier year. But we think when the dust
0:54
Speaker 1: settles at the end of the year, stock market will
0:57
Speaker 1: be maybe ten percent or so higher than forty hundred
1:01
Speaker 1: where we started the year. We think will end the
1:03
Speaker 1: year at about fifty three hundred. But that's going to
1:06
Speaker 1: be a very back end loaded kind of performance. The
1:09
Speaker 1: first nine months of the year. In our mind, UH
1:13
Speaker 1: is going to be very choppy, very volatile, with the
1:15
Speaker 1: focus on this soaring inflation, what's the federal Reserve doing
1:20
Speaker 1: in terms of changing policy, and so you know, we
1:24
Speaker 1: thought there would be an eight to twelve percent correction
1:27
Speaker 1: or so over the first couple of quarters of the year. UM.
1:31
Speaker 1: The emphasis here is going to be preserving capital, and
1:35
Speaker 1: and that suggests owning the stocks that are cheaper, that
1:39
Speaker 1: have lower datas, that have higher dividend yield support. UM.
1:43
Speaker 1: So we like domestic large cap and small cap value.
1:47
Speaker 1: We like small cap stocks, we like international stocks, and
1:52
Speaker 1: and those stocks have been performing a lot better than
1:55
Speaker 1: the growthier technology stocks, which which have been trading at
1:59
Speaker 1: at you know, sort of nosebleed valuation levels. So hang on,
2:04
Speaker 1: you want to in preserving capital, you want to buy
2:07
Speaker 1: a small cap stocks? How's that defensive? The small cap
2:11
Speaker 1: stocks have gotten taken out behind the wood shed, So
2:14
Speaker 1: the valuation is significantly more attractive than the large cap
2:19
Speaker 1: growth names. The small cap stocks quite literally a cheaper
2:23
Speaker 1: than the large cap stocks, and they've got better growth. Um.
2:26
Speaker 1: Most people think that it's the small cap stocks that
2:29
Speaker 1: are trading at you know, fifty or a hundred times
2:31
Speaker 1: forward earnings. That's not the case. So the value stocks,
2:35
Speaker 1: the small cap stocks, the international stocks are the places
2:38
Speaker 1: you're gonna find better value. And then what do you
2:41
Speaker 1: look for a specific sign to get back into the
2:45
Speaker 1: broader market If we're gonna ra at the end of
2:47
Speaker 1: the year, or is there a certain time that you
2:49
Speaker 1: want to do that, Well, certainly I think there's gonna
2:52
Speaker 1: be chopped into the late summer early fall period. We
2:56
Speaker 1: want to see how this inflation plays out. We want
3:00
Speaker 1: to see what the FEDS change in policy is going
3:03
Speaker 1: to be. We know the tapering is going to end
3:05
Speaker 1: in March. They told us that. We know they're going
3:07
Speaker 1: to start to raise interest rates in March. They told
3:10
Speaker 1: us that what we don't know is are they gonna
3:14
Speaker 1: tighten policy, raise interest rates every meeting every other meeting.
3:19
Speaker 1: Are they gonna give us a bunch of twenty five
3:21
Speaker 1: basis point heights? Are they going to front load with
3:24
Speaker 1: a couple of fifties? Are they going to start to
3:27
Speaker 1: aggressively shrink the balance sheet either passively or uh actively
3:33
Speaker 1: in the middle of the year. There's a lot of
3:34
Speaker 1: open questions, and importantly, We don't know who five of
3:38
Speaker 1: the seven members of the Board of Governors UH is
3:42
Speaker 1: going to be until the Senate confirms them or not
3:46
Speaker 1: later this month. So there's a lot of open questions
3:49
Speaker 1: surrounding inflation and federal reserve makeup and policy. Phil It's
3:55
Speaker 1: it's interesting here. We we've had, you know, this pullback
3:58
Speaker 1: in the marketplace. We've had a little bit of a
4:00
Speaker 1: bounce back here over the past week here. Um one
4:04
Speaker 1: of the sectors that has been really interesting. I look
4:06
Speaker 1: at w t I crude oil at a barrel. Yes,
4:10
Speaker 1: it's had such a move. Have the stocks had their
4:13
Speaker 1: day or is there still room to grow? I know
4:15
Speaker 1: a lot of folks thinking about that. Well, there's no
4:18
Speaker 1: question that energy has been the best performer to date,
4:21
Speaker 1: and and deservedly so. Crude oil has gone from thirty
4:25
Speaker 1: or thirty five dollars a barrel back in November of
4:29
Speaker 1: as you said, we're now at ninety dollars a barrel
4:32
Speaker 1: going higher. We're probably going to be a hundred hundred
4:35
Speaker 1: twenty by the end of the year. Why is that
4:38
Speaker 1: You've got this global reopening trade UH in which there
4:41
Speaker 1: is a significant demand for energy, Yet the largest energy
4:46
Speaker 1: producer in the world. The United States, we voluntarily reduced
4:50
Speaker 1: our production by over the course of the last year
4:54
Speaker 1: because of fiscal policy. So as a result, what's the
4:57
Speaker 1: clearing mechanism, price price has gone higher. Less less supply,
5:03
Speaker 1: more demand, and and that trend is going to continue
5:06
Speaker 1: until either the demand slows or we're able to put
5:10
Speaker 1: more more product onto the market. And the latter's looks
5:14
Speaker 1: seemingly difficult, right, I mean, opec Um doesn't have that
5:19
Speaker 1: much spare capacity. Well two issues. Number one, they're saying, well,
5:22
Speaker 1: we're just going to slowly add four dred thousand barrels,
5:26
Speaker 1: you know, a day over the next month to increase
5:30
Speaker 1: that but there are legitimate questions as to whether or
5:33
Speaker 1: not they've got any oil that they can put onto
5:35
Speaker 1: the market. They have they they may be uh, they
5:38
Speaker 1: may be running on empty right now. So the swing
5:41
Speaker 1: producer is going to be the United States. And and
5:44
Speaker 1: you know, over the course of the last year, we've
5:46
Speaker 1: taken our production down from thirteen million barrels a day
5:50
Speaker 1: to eleven million barrels a day. So in order to
5:52
Speaker 1: get the price lower, US producers need to be encouraged
5:56
Speaker 1: by the federal government to to start exploring and produce
6:00
Speaker 1: you more. By the way, Philip, we're at the SMP
6:04
Speaker 1: and crew is trading for hundred ten, hundred twenty. Where
6:07
Speaker 1: do you see the tenure at the end of the year.
6:09
Speaker 1: We think benchmark tens which are about one ninety now,
6:13
Speaker 1: we think they'll be closer to two and a half
6:15
Speaker 1: percent by the end of the calendar year. Interesting. See.
6:17
Speaker 1: Phil always brings the goods, you know, always got some
6:20
Speaker 1: headlines coming out of Philip Orlando. Phil, thanks so much
6:23
Speaker 1: for joining us. As always, we appreciate your clear calls
6:26
Speaker 1: on these markets. Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist and
6:30
Speaker 1: head of Client Portfolio Management. He's a federated at HERMIS.
6:34
Speaker 1: Those federated folks are based in Pittsburgh, but uh fills
6:38
Speaker 1: in New York City. All right, let's talk interest rates.
6:45
Speaker 1: They're going higher. A lot of folks want to say
6:47
Speaker 1: where we want to get an understanding of, you know,
6:49
Speaker 1: how quickly and how much preamra she does this for
6:52
Speaker 1: a living Managing director in Global head of rate Strategy
6:54
Speaker 1: at TV Securities. Is my federal reserve gonna lift interest
6:58
Speaker 1: rates fifty basis points in mark? Thy thanks for having
7:02
Speaker 1: me on. We don't think not in March. I mean,
7:06
Speaker 1: it's not obvious to us that the benefits of going fifty,
7:10
Speaker 1: which is not priced in, it would be a huge
7:11
Speaker 1: shock to the market. It would tighten financial conditions that
7:15
Speaker 1: it's worth it. From the Fed standpoint, I mean, I
7:18
Speaker 1: think they're signaling that they're about to start hiking. We
7:21
Speaker 1: think largely consecutive meetings of hikes until as well as
7:26
Speaker 1: quantitative tightening until we figure out whether inflation is decelerating
7:30
Speaker 1: in the second half of the year, which we do expect.
7:32
Speaker 1: So we're looking for them to start in March, continue
7:34
Speaker 1: to hike it connegative meetings, and then slow down into
7:38
Speaker 1: your end because we see inflation declining. But I would
7:41
Speaker 1: stress that quantitative tightening is likely to move into strates higher.
7:45
Speaker 1: I mean, we don't think they go fifty, but if
7:47
Speaker 1: they start letting the balance sheet run off. The balance
7:50
Speaker 1: sheet is much larger than it was in seventeen, it
7:52
Speaker 1: has a shorter week to average maturity, and that's going
7:55
Speaker 1: to put a lot of treasury supply in the market,
7:57
Speaker 1: which we think will take that tenure higher. So we're
8:00
Speaker 1: looking forward to in a quarter on the tenure, the
8:02
Speaker 1: pace is tricky. When does the market start to price it,
8:05
Speaker 1: and you could get a faster move to that to
8:07
Speaker 1: in a quarter. But I do think the long end
8:09
Speaker 1: the front ense price for hikes. I think the long
8:12
Speaker 1: end still has some some work to do in terms
8:14
Speaker 1: of moving higher in rates to price. In this exit
8:17
Speaker 1: from off the Fit, It's been twenty five years since
8:21
Speaker 1: I took statistics from Hassan Rockmanny and at Antioch College.
8:25
Speaker 1: And to be honest, I was in a college in
8:28
Speaker 1: Yellow Springs, Ohio, really great, great place, and it was
8:31
Speaker 1: super fun, which is why I didn't pay much attention
8:34
Speaker 1: in statistics. But um, so the language I don't I
8:38
Speaker 1: don't have downpad. But you know, there can be a
8:42
Speaker 1: couple of different scenarios when you're making forecasts. Right, On
8:45
Speaker 1: the one hand, you can have a high degree of
8:47
Speaker 1: probability your base case is very likely to happen when
8:50
Speaker 1: you're looking at say um you know, year end fed
8:53
Speaker 1: UM policy and inflation. On the other hand, you can
8:57
Speaker 1: have a really broad distribution of probability these right. I mean,
9:01
Speaker 1: as you said, we don't know what's going to happen
9:03
Speaker 1: with inflation. Maybe it turns around in the middle of
9:05
Speaker 1: the year and then the fat doesn't have to hike five, six,
9:08
Speaker 1: seven times, or maybe inflation keeps coming on strong and
9:12
Speaker 1: they have to do not just one, but multiple fifty
9:14
Speaker 1: basis point rate hikes. Is this a situation where the
9:18
Speaker 1: likelihood we're forecasting the end game is much more difficult? Yes,
9:25
Speaker 1: it is, And I would say for a couple of reasons,
9:27
Speaker 1: we're still in the midst of a pandemic. Um. I mean,
9:30
Speaker 1: as much as we'd like to think that it's behind us,
9:33
Speaker 1: the impact of it on supply chains, on the goods
9:37
Speaker 1: to services, that that demand transition that we've been reading
9:40
Speaker 1: now for a year, I mean there's some aspect of
9:42
Speaker 1: that that flows into not just the labor market, but
9:44
Speaker 1: also inflation, because as much as inflation was a supply
9:47
Speaker 1: chain issue, was also a demand issue. There was significant
9:50
Speaker 1: demand for goods. So we're still trying to figure out
9:53
Speaker 1: the impact over the how COVID itself, um, you know,
9:57
Speaker 1: how how the pandemic progresses, How is the impact of
10:00
Speaker 1: that flow through. So there's that macro risk. And then
10:04
Speaker 1: to your point, I mean trying to figure out the
10:06
Speaker 1: timing of when inflation will decline. And at the same
10:09
Speaker 1: time you have a FED that I think has stepped
10:11
Speaker 1: back from forward guidance. They're telling us they're likely to
10:14
Speaker 1: start the exit soon, but after that, all options around
10:17
Speaker 1: the table because of being I think inherent uncertainty around
10:21
Speaker 1: the data and I think concerns that they might be
10:25
Speaker 1: behind the curve, which is why I think that fifty
10:27
Speaker 1: basis point will give a very strong signal that the
10:29
Speaker 1: FED things there behind the curve. But I think they
10:32
Speaker 1: want to keep all options on the table because they
10:35
Speaker 1: may have to go faster. And that's the case. Where
10:38
Speaker 1: can they go faster on QT or can they go
10:41
Speaker 1: more hikes market pricing? In about five and a half
10:43
Speaker 1: hikes this year there are seven meetings, they could technically
10:47
Speaker 1: go seven times, just twenty five, and it's much more
10:49
Speaker 1: than Well, Also, the hikes probably aren't going to have
10:53
Speaker 1: and as much of an effect on markets as QT
10:56
Speaker 1: are they. I mean, if they if they unwind two
10:59
Speaker 1: or three trillion dollars from their balance sheet, they still
11:02
Speaker 1: haven't gone through everything they build up since the beginning
11:04
Speaker 1: of the pandemic, and that would hit markets. I think,
11:07
Speaker 1: you know, that's way more than anyone expects. Exactly, and well,
11:10
Speaker 1: we've noticed real rates as well as the equity market
11:13
Speaker 1: or financial conditions in general seem to react much more
11:17
Speaker 1: to QT because there's a permanence to it. While on hike,
11:21
Speaker 1: if all we're doing is moving a hike from two thousand,
11:23
Speaker 1: twenty three to twenty two, you know it's a big
11:26
Speaker 1: deal if you're trading fret front futures, But it doesn't
11:28
Speaker 1: matter as much in terms of interest rates because you've
11:31
Speaker 1: just taken front loaded the hikes as opposed to increase
11:34
Speaker 1: the number of hikes. And notice the endpoint of the
11:36
Speaker 1: hiking cycle, the market pricing of that hasn't changed. It's
11:39
Speaker 1: been between one seventy five and one nine, so it's
11:42
Speaker 1: not like the markets adding more hikes. We're just moving
11:45
Speaker 1: hikes from one year to another. But QUT is a
11:48
Speaker 1: different story. At that point, there's a lot more treasuries
11:51
Speaker 1: and we need to find that marginal buyer for treasuries
11:54
Speaker 1: in auctions that every other week the Treasury has auctions.
11:58
Speaker 1: So yes, I think QUT is a bigger One of
12:00
Speaker 1: the reasons why we think the FIT would not have
12:02
Speaker 1: to hike as much is because of all right, prea
12:04
Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. Always appreciate a
12:06
Speaker 1: pre MISERM Managing director and global head of Rate strategy
12:09
Speaker 1: at TV Securities. Let's continue our discussion of the US
12:16
Speaker 1: labor market. We can do that now with Nolan Church,
12:18
Speaker 1: CEO and co founder of Continuum. Nolan former chief people
12:22
Speaker 1: Officer Carter, former head of Talented door Dash, former recruiter Google,
12:27
Speaker 1: so he knows all about this hiring and retaining talent
12:30
Speaker 1: stuff and captain of in Captain baseball team, the baseball
12:34
Speaker 1: team at the Universe with the name like Nolan, do
12:36
Speaker 1: you have to I think you have to be a
12:38
Speaker 1: baseball player. You can't go out there and you know,
12:40
Speaker 1: be a frisbee ultimate frisbe play. You're gonna be a
12:43
Speaker 1: bas frisbee golf exactly. Nolan, thanks so much for joining
12:46
Speaker 1: us here. One of the many questions I have about
12:48
Speaker 1: this unique place in time in our in our labor market,
12:51
Speaker 1: is you know, the four to five million people that
12:54
Speaker 1: aren't in the labor market today that we're there pre pandemic,
12:58
Speaker 1: Who are they? Where did they go? And are they
13:01
Speaker 1: ever coming back? Yeah, it's a great question. First of all,
13:04
Speaker 1: it's great to be here. Thanks for having me on. Guys.
13:06
Speaker 1: I think that's the big mystery we're all trying to solve. Now.
13:09
Speaker 1: What I would tell you is is that I can't
13:11
Speaker 1: tell you for certain for all four to five million,
13:14
Speaker 1: you know where they are ended up right now, But
13:16
Speaker 1: I will tell you that I think a large majority
13:18
Speaker 1: of those people have actually become solo preneurs. I think
13:22
Speaker 1: that they've started to work for themselves. I think that
13:24
Speaker 1: they're starting to consult, advise, become angel investors. And I'm
13:29
Speaker 1: seeing that especially being the case with executives that have
13:32
Speaker 1: deep expertise in a functional area. So how do we
13:37
Speaker 1: do that? Well, you gotta work in radio a little longer.
13:42
Speaker 1: Uh No, I honestly believe what it comes down to
13:45
Speaker 1: is is that if you look at the labor market
13:47
Speaker 1: right now, and specifically the case with the executives, which
13:50
Speaker 1: is where I've spent a bunch of my time, these
13:52
Speaker 1: people are the most in demand. So if you think
13:55
Speaker 1: about executive recruiting, which is the function in which we
13:58
Speaker 1: connect executives to companies today, these searches usually cost a
14:02
Speaker 1: hundred k or more, they usually take six to nine months.
14:06
Speaker 1: And right now there's a phenomenon I've never seen before,
14:08
Speaker 1: which is these executive recruiters are so busy they are
14:11
Speaker 1: turning away business. And so if you think about that
14:14
Speaker 1: on one side, and you think about the other side
14:16
Speaker 1: is these people have been in their careers for ten, fifteen,
14:19
Speaker 1: twenty plus years and they're tired. They've been working their
14:23
Speaker 1: tails off for typically one company at a time, and
14:27
Speaker 1: you know they look in tech Crunch every morning and
14:29
Speaker 1: they're starting to see all their CEOs become angel investors
14:33
Speaker 1: to do other things outside of just the CEO job,
14:35
Speaker 1: and they're wondering, Hey, I've had my head down this
14:38
Speaker 1: entire time. Is there something else that I can do
14:42
Speaker 1: that's interesting for me, that gives me more time back
14:45
Speaker 1: in my life, but still allows me to make an
14:47
Speaker 1: income and to challenge myself intellectually. So, Nolan, as you
14:51
Speaker 1: talk to your clients as they think about trying to hire,
14:54
Speaker 1: and we know it's such a difficult hiring environment right now.
14:57
Speaker 1: We see for you know, help one as signs every
15:00
Speaker 1: ay where and it's not just at the local bakery
15:01
Speaker 1: and local store, it's corporate America as well. Is hybrid workforce?
15:08
Speaker 1: Is that just table stakes? Do I just have to
15:10
Speaker 1: offer that as an employer? I actually don't think so. Now.
15:15
Speaker 1: What I will say is everything is a trade off
15:18
Speaker 1: right now, and so if you don't want to be
15:21
Speaker 1: remote first or hybrid, then you will take longer to
15:26
Speaker 1: hire somebody period, full stop, especially people that have experienced Yeah,
15:32
Speaker 1: that makes sense, right, especially depending on where you are
15:36
Speaker 1: what kind of I mean, your clients are higher end
15:40
Speaker 1: uh looking to fill higher end jobs, right, So I mean,
15:43
Speaker 1: if you're an executive and you're doing well, I don't
15:46
Speaker 1: think your boss probably cares most of the time what
15:48
Speaker 1: office you're in. That's that's what we're seeing now. And
15:52
Speaker 1: the COVID forced us all to become zoom native, uh
15:57
Speaker 1: to to just like everyone's got a webcam severn set
16:00
Speaker 1: up now, and so I think all of us are
16:02
Speaker 1: now used to this. What's happening though, is that just
16:05
Speaker 1: because these searches take so long, And it's the case
16:08
Speaker 1: for executives certainly, but frankly, all the way through the
16:11
Speaker 1: stack and the company, I think companies are are saying, actually,
16:14
Speaker 1: this trade off that we wanted to have everybody in
16:17
Speaker 1: the office just isn't worth it anymore, and now we
16:20
Speaker 1: need to optimize for speed. And if you're optimizing for speed,
16:23
Speaker 1: what we're seeing companies do is obviously they're going to
16:25
Speaker 1: remote first. Number one, we're seeing them pay more. Um
16:29
Speaker 1: So increasing compensation as number two, and then number three
16:33
Speaker 1: is that they're they're starting to explore these new options.
16:36
Speaker 1: So instead of hey, I thought I needed somebody for
16:38
Speaker 1: you know, I wanted somebody for a full time role
16:42
Speaker 1: working forty plus hours a week, I will now take
16:45
Speaker 1: somebody that's working twenty to thirty hours a week because
16:48
Speaker 1: I can get them in the building faster. By the way,
16:50
Speaker 1: how many people are you putting into you know, um,
16:54
Speaker 1: highly skilled, high level jobs normally where they need to
16:57
Speaker 1: be in New York City or in Chicago or in
17:02
Speaker 1: l A And they say, no, I'm gonna do with
17:05
Speaker 1: the job from like the mountains in Montana. That is,
17:09
Speaker 1: I would say of the executives in our market place
17:14
Speaker 1: are now like that. It is unbelievable. And and what's
17:17
Speaker 1: fascinating is is that you know, companies, they're they're starting
17:22
Speaker 1: to catch up, but still many of them are quite
17:24
Speaker 1: slow for this. And so we primarily work with with
17:27
Speaker 1: pre I p O startups in the technology sector, and
17:31
Speaker 1: I would say the large majority of those companies are
17:33
Speaker 1: now being founded as remote first companies. Those that aren't
17:37
Speaker 1: are living on this line between man, I really want
17:41
Speaker 1: to be intentional about my culture I want people in
17:44
Speaker 1: the office. We have this office, I want people to
17:46
Speaker 1: use it, but it's taking forever to hire. And so okay,
17:52
Speaker 1: maybe I'll now explore somebody fractionally that doesn't work in
17:56
Speaker 1: the office because they can come solve my problems today.
17:59
Speaker 1: Look at this is where the the world is moving
18:01
Speaker 1: in this direction, and I think the people that jump
18:03
Speaker 1: on this train now will deal with a lot less
18:06
Speaker 1: pain than those that continue to be headstrong about getting
18:09
Speaker 1: people in the I'll get on the train. I need
18:11
Speaker 1: to get on the you're gonna miss the train. We
18:12
Speaker 1: need to get Alan Anthony from Jersey on the train.
18:15
Speaker 1: That's what we need, all right. Nolan Church, thanks so
18:17
Speaker 1: much for joining us. Fascinating discussion here this half hour
18:20
Speaker 1: about the changing labor environment. Boy, you gotta get people
18:23
Speaker 1: back in the office, or do you? All right? Nolan Church,
18:26
Speaker 1: CEO and co founder of Continuum, fascinating discussion. All right,
18:34
Speaker 1: let's talk manufacturing here and Fan Dazzi, Chief executive Officer.
18:39
Speaker 1: Richie Brothers. Richie Brothers is a publicly traded company that's
18:43
Speaker 1: six and a half billion market cap. Stocks been kind
18:45
Speaker 1: of flat over last year. The company sells used and
18:48
Speaker 1: unused industrial equipment, including equipment using the construction, transportation, mining, forestry, petroleum,
18:54
Speaker 1: and agricultural industries. I didn't even know there was such
18:57
Speaker 1: a thing, but it makes perfect sense. And we love
19:00
Speaker 1: chatting with the ancause it's a good sense of what's
19:02
Speaker 1: going on in industrial America, supply chain, all that stuff. So,
19:06
Speaker 1: and thanks so much for joining us. How about let's
19:08
Speaker 1: just talk about how's your market is. How's the market
19:11
Speaker 1: for using and I guess new industrial equipment? Yeah, so
19:16
Speaker 1: thanks for having me on the show. The market is
19:19
Speaker 1: white hot because the demand is so high. The issue
19:23
Speaker 1: is the supply chain and that we're a global company, uh,
19:27
Speaker 1: and we're feeling it all over the globe. So Richie
19:30
Speaker 1: Brothers Transact primarily used equipment, and as you said, in
19:34
Speaker 1: the industrial transportation space. Unfortunately, Uh, if you don't have
19:40
Speaker 1: a new piece of equipment to replace your use piece
19:43
Speaker 1: of equipment, you cannot give up the uth piece of equipment.
19:46
Speaker 1: So we see the demand the sky high, resulting in
19:50
Speaker 1: just incredible prices for youth equipment in the marketplace because
19:54
Speaker 1: they cannot get you to replace at the same clip
19:57
Speaker 1: they will so I want to So I'm guessing is
20:01
Speaker 1: an auction platform that you have it. Yeah, so we uh.
20:05
Speaker 1: We primarily go to market through an auction platform. We
20:08
Speaker 1: also have a listing service that we've had in Europe
20:10
Speaker 1: for some time and just launched Ritchie List a couple
20:15
Speaker 1: of months ago in North America. So we allow people
20:18
Speaker 1: to list their own equipment, sell it themselves, we can
20:21
Speaker 1: finance that, we can inspect it for them, we can
20:23
Speaker 1: help close the transaction, or if you just need liquidity,
20:27
Speaker 1: we are happy to sell it on your behalf. So um,
20:30
Speaker 1: I mean it sounds awesome business like I want to
20:33
Speaker 1: go on the website and check it out. But I
20:36
Speaker 1: imagine that your turnover hasn't been so much higher over
20:40
Speaker 1: the past couple of years, but the prices have just soored.
20:44
Speaker 1: Is that the case, or do you even have more turnover? Yeah, no,
20:48
Speaker 1: that's exactly right. Our units are down. So two things
20:51
Speaker 1: are happening in our marketplace. The prices are sky high
20:55
Speaker 1: because the man the sky high. The units are down because,
20:57
Speaker 1: as you say, we you know, low turnover, we ken
21:00
Speaker 1: we can't get the new equipment. And also the mix
21:02
Speaker 1: of the equipment, so the things that are coming are
21:05
Speaker 1: older smaller. Again, you know, when people really have to
21:09
Speaker 1: turn the equipment they do. Otherwise they just hold onto
21:12
Speaker 1: it much longer. Now, the beauty of our businesses as
21:16
Speaker 1: that equipment continues to sit there, it continues to age.
21:19
Speaker 1: So sooner or later, when the supply chain catches up, uh,
21:23
Speaker 1: that equipment will need to be turned Uh. And that's
21:25
Speaker 1: where we come in. So we're we're but the but
21:28
Speaker 1: the but the opportunity for you here, I mean, I'm
21:30
Speaker 1: looking at your stock here going from basically forty to
21:33
Speaker 1: sixty pre pandemic to now, which is you know, gain
21:37
Speaker 1: is better than a stick in the eye. But your opportunity,
21:40
Speaker 1: I guess is to um really boost your brand awareness here.
21:46
Speaker 1: You know, I think of the car space and pre pandemic,
21:50
Speaker 1: most people wanting a new car would just go down
21:52
Speaker 1: the dealership lot and pick one out. But there aren't
21:55
Speaker 1: any on the dealership lots, so they've had to familiarize
21:57
Speaker 1: themselves with Auto Trader, car Max, car Gurus, etcetera. And
22:03
Speaker 1: so fourth, I guess what you want to do is
22:06
Speaker 1: make everybody aware that Richie Brothers Auctions is the place
22:09
Speaker 1: to go for this kind of equipment. Yeah, that's beautifully said.
22:13
Speaker 1: We actually take a lot of cues from the car industry.
22:16
Speaker 1: I personally spent almost over a decade in big Auto
22:20
Speaker 1: prior to a couple of uh CEO gigs outside of
22:23
Speaker 1: auto and now Richie Brothers. It's a perfect analogy. So
22:27
Speaker 1: we are very fortunate because the space of used equipment
22:31
Speaker 1: ready for this, three hundred billion dollars of used equipment
22:35
Speaker 1: in a normal year change his hands every year. Three
22:38
Speaker 1: hundred billion dollars. We transact roughly six billion of that
22:42
Speaker 1: every year. So the opportunity space is huge. Uh, and
22:46
Speaker 1: our transition is just beginning from kind of a pure
22:49
Speaker 1: play auctioneer to really a marketplace. Think about all the
22:53
Speaker 1: things that exists in cars, Kelly blue Book, car facts,
22:57
Speaker 1: as you set all of different formats to trend that
23:00
Speaker 1: we're actually putting those in place. We acquired Rouse to
23:04
Speaker 1: help us build the Kelly Bluebook of our industry. We
23:08
Speaker 1: launched the listing service that facilitate transactions outside of the
23:12
Speaker 1: auction channel, and then obviously kind of the pre eminent
23:15
Speaker 1: auction player all over the globe. All right, fascinating stuff.
23:19
Speaker 1: We're gonna have to get you back on and I
23:21
Speaker 1: got a million in one questions, like me too, When
23:23
Speaker 1: is the supply chain? Thinking would be over. I want
23:25
Speaker 1: to and you get over this whole market, right. You
23:27
Speaker 1: want to become like the Mannheim of equipment. I want
23:30
Speaker 1: to get a big like earth Mover or something like that.
23:31
Speaker 1: And Fandazi, chief executive officer for Richie Brothers. Thanks for
23:36
Speaker 1: listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and
23:40
Speaker 1: listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform
23:44
Speaker 1: you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt
23:47
Speaker 1: Miller three. Pet On bal Sweeney, I'm on Twitter at
23:51
Speaker 1: pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can always catch us
23:54
Speaker 1: worldwide at Bloomberg Radio