Latest / Professional Ag Marketing Podcast / Early Planting Outlook | Grain Market Talk April 17th, 2026

Transcript

Early Planting Outlook | Grain Market Talk April 17th, 2026 · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:02
  SPEAKER_00: You're locked in to the Green Market Talk Podcast.
• 0:06
  SPEAKER_00: Fast updates, market movers, and the green news you need right now.
• 0:11
  SPEAKER_00: Trading commodity futures and options involves a potential risk of blood.
• 0:15
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• 0:21
  SPEAKER_02: All right.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_02: I've got Pat with us here today.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_02: How's it going, Pat?
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_02: Good, Mike.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_02: How are you?
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_02: We're doing really good.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_02: We are sitting here on a Friday afternoon.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_02: Oh, what a day.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_02: Holy cow.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_02: We've had a lot of things going on, Pat.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_02: A lot of volatility, whether it be the cattle market, which I'll have Nick talking about here in a little bit, or the uh or the grain markets, but the equities and crude oil, those outside markets really moved a lot today.
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_02: So what can you tell me about your take on just what we saw in today's trade, let alone for the whole week here on the grain markets?
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I mean, we're as we move closer to our uh spring, and uh, you know, most of our clients are thinking about spring field work and and and uh um trying to to get the ball rolling is in terms of making some progress here in terms of putting the crop in the ground.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_01: We've got these markets that are um more than ever concerned about outside influences, right?
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_01: And so um, you know, I just looking here, I think we've got uh November soybeans down a couple cents compared to to uh last Friday's clothes and corn kind of the same thing, right?
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_01: So so we ended up in a spot that isn't entirely different than where we were when we had a chance to visit last Friday, Mike, but we certainly have had some volatility um between now and then.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_01: And so um why don't you, my, if you don't mind, take a little stab at at uh first um what's going on as it relates to the latest uh iterations uh in the Middle East here and what uh influence or impact that that's had on on crude oil and therefore maybe corn and and and soybean oil to some extent.
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, it the the week really progressed pretty quickly.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_02: You start the week off on Monday talking about ceasefires and uh ceasefires between uh Lebanon and Iran, and then all of a sudden we get towards the end of the week and things developed really quickly out of nowhere it felt like Pat.
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_02: The Middle East, you saw uh the uh I'll have Cade pull up the a few of the articles here just about the daily news at least, but we had a uh uh situation where Trump had said or came out that um they are opening up the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran came out and said they're opening up the Strait of Hormuz this morning and said that the negotiations are very well along.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_02: They've negotiated almost all the bullet points and they're almost all done.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_02: Even Iran said that, and uh both sides said they're very close to a deal.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_02: Things seem to be be de-escalating quite a bit in that part of the world, whether it be a ceasefire on the war side or just logistics with Strait of Hormuz opening up as well.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_02: So uh going from two ships a day lately uh for tankers through the Strait of Hormoes now back to a normal at some point 140-ish a day.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_02: So we'll see how fast that progresses.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_02: But uh nonetheless, through through this week here, crude oil set back immensely, another ten dollars again today.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_02: So your front months eighty-four instead of around ninety-five, a hundred and five.
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_02: Uh so the crude oil market's gone down a lot.
• 3:23
  SPEAKER_02: Meanwhile, corn was up five cents this week, uh, week over week for December, like you mentioned.
• 3:27
  SPEAKER_02: Uh so a little disconnected, but everything seems disconnected today.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_02: Because even from a outside look like the equities, SP was up a hundred points today, while cattle were down almost limit at one point today.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_02: We were trading a lot different things throughout some of these.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_02: So we're focusing on some different fundamentals, not so much of outside market influence here.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_02: And like soybeans and corn kind of finished green today, Pat.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_02: So kind of uncharacteristic trade lately.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_02: Very nothing seems correlated with each other, would be the way I put it here lately.
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_01: And the story isn't over yet, right?
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I like the the the as we uh are recording this podcast on Friday afternoon, um, I guess things have looked as good as they've looked for quite a while as it relates to um what's going on in the Middle East today, but this isn't the this isn't the end of that story by any stretch.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_01: And so we'll continue to likely have some some uh uh some volatility uh uh influenced by these outside market forces that'll continue to move um our grain markets around here uh just a little bit for sure.
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_01: Um, you know, as as we start talking about internal fundamentals a little bit here um while us in the Northwest Corn Belt um is uh experiencing the opportunity for a relatively uh open, quote unquote, last half April here for um for for producers to uh um to to plant as at at the pace they're comfortable with, say it that way, right?
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_01: Um but uh there's a good chunk of Iowa today, right, Mike, that is isn't able to turn a wheel.
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_01: And and uh, you know, we're having this conversation on the 17th of April, and so we're not gonna act at all like this is a a planning delay of any stretch of the imagination.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_01: But um, you know, we certainly are kind of looking at next week as as an as an optimum planting week for a good portion of the corn belt in order to maximize yields and those sorts of things.
• 5:28
  SPEAKER_01: And and there certainly will be some areas that will that are unable to sort of execute on that for sure, and and another round of of uh of uh rain forecasted for this weekend.
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_01: And so again, just say it's too early to be talking about any of this to to any large extent at all, but but worth noting that we do have a pretty good portion of the Western Corn Belt at least that is gonna be in a little bit of a tough spot here as it relates to hitting those optimum planning dates.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_02: It takes it seems like in in the past, you've got to get past the way May Wazda airport.
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_02: For sure.
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_02: Once you get past that, then all of a sudden you look at the six to ten day forecast and it's like, oh, it you know, progress is really pretty slow or or fast.
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_02: It seems like it needs you need to get in the month of May, and then it seems like you've got the WASD Airport quickly come up, and then you get to talk about, okay, there's delays or or fast pace, and it seems like that's when we talk about it.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_02: So yeah, it's still early, but I would argue with how obsessed the community's been in the past few years with early plant, especially soybeans, getting those in early versus normal.
• 6:33
  SPEAKER_02: It seems like it's been pretty quiet around here.
• 6:35
  SPEAKER_02: So I liked the way you said that you know, in the Western Corn Belt here, people are getting planted as fast as they want to be because we've got some cold temps tomorrow.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_02: It's been a little wet, next week seems to open up a little bit, but then it's cold again next weekend.
• 6:49
  SPEAKER_02: So Iowa, a lot of folks, it sounds like can't go through the majority of the state, just northwest part really.
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_02: And then if uh if I've been talking to guys, eastern Minnesota, pretty wet, it's still there, Wisconsin's pretty behind.
• 7:02
  SPEAKER_02: Then you go far extreme eastern corn belt, like Ohio, things are starting to roll a little bit there too, it sounds like so.
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_02: The majority I would say um in the fringes, it seems like are ironically getting going, but right in the heart of the corn belt.
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_02: It's a little bit slower than I thought it maybe could have been.
• 7:18
  SPEAKER_02: And uh that may be a story at some point, but we're about a month early, I think.
• 7:22
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, we'll stay on top of it.
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_01: And yeah, and again, at this point, uh don't think that it's a real big deal.
• 7:26
  SPEAKER_02: But there is a trend developing.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_02: A few weeks ago, Pat, the U.S.
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_02: corn production in a drought was in 46% type range.
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_02: About half the corn production was in a drought.
• 7:36
  SPEAKER_02: It that it was getting very red on the south and west portions of the United States.
• 7:41
  SPEAKER_02: That's down to 26% is in a drought now for the United States.
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_02: So going into our main growing season, it would appear that the I states, a good percentage of the corn belt, is starting off with actually decent soil profile, moisture profile or whatever.
• 7:58
  SPEAKER_01: That's absolutely right.
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_01: Net net, we are in better shape today than what we were a month ago in terms of the potential for this crop.
• 8:04
  SPEAKER_01: No question.
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_01: Absolutely.
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_02: A few other things I wanted to mention as well.
• 8:07
  SPEAKER_02: The wheat market, uh, we don't talk about it a lot on this podcast, but it's seen an immense volatile streak here for the last month or so.
• 8:16
  SPEAKER_02: It it went way up.
• 8:17
  SPEAKER_02: We gather uh gathered about a dollar twenty-five rally.
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_02: We took about 70 cents of it back in the wheat market, and now we put another 60-some cents on this week.
• 8:26
  SPEAKER_02: The the dryness and cool weather over the south part of the plains in the United States has made that crop deteriorate condition scores pretty rapidly.
• 8:37
  SPEAKER_02: And uh that that could potentially play into maybe holding corn up or getting some fun buying in corn at some point as well.
• 8:45
  SPEAKER_02: But that is a story weather-wise that will get to trade a little bit before corn or soybean weather, it looks like in the United States.
• 8:53
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I think that's a great point.
• 8:54
  SPEAKER_01: And if we want to kind of think about the U shape around the central part of the corn belt, the the fringe areas.
• 9:01
  SPEAKER_01: Um if there was some opportunity for reduced corn acres, it likely occurs in that spot in those areas.
• 9:10
  SPEAKER_01: Um, those would be areas that would be a little less inclined to have, you know, fertilizer booked six months ago and those sorts of things.
• 9:17
  SPEAKER_01: They need to keep their options open longer.
• 9:20
  SPEAKER_01: Um if this dryness continues to persist in in those areas of the corn belt coupled with um, you know, the the a challenging start to uh um to to the wheat crop.
• 9:35
  SPEAKER_01: Um absolutely that is the spot that you can start to show some or see some real concerns, it at least as it relates to the corn balance sheet.
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_01: And so um I think that's a I think that's a a a good observation, a great point, and and something that certainly bears wash watching here in the middle of April.
• 9:52
  SPEAKER_02: Part of this week's rally there had to do with this weekend getting a little bit cold too.
• 9:56
  SPEAKER_02: So we'll watch freeze concerns through the weekend here, and then today it got pushed down a little bit because it's been a very easy way to hedge against inflation historically.
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_02: So we've had some buying with crude oil going up here lately in the wheat market, and today obviously significant setback in the crude probably put a little pressure on the grains.
• 10:13
  SPEAKER_02: But I thought the grains closed pretty well today.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_02: They bounced back well, and they weren't the only ones either.
• 10:18
  SPEAKER_02: Like uh cattle came all the way back today after trading significantly off uh on levels.
• 10:23
  SPEAKER_02: The SP was well up and is kind of backing off through the day.
• 10:27
  SPEAKER_02: So a little bit more calm going into the weekend than maybe the middle of the trading session today, but nonetheless, uh yeah, very very volatile through these markets going into the weekend, Pat.
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, absolutely.
• 10:38
  SPEAKER_01: And uh I I think you know, as we look out into next week and beyond, we should be preparing ourselves for um increased, I'll say improved volatility, should create some better opportunities than what we've you know recently experienced for both our row crop producers and our end users.
• 10:58
  SPEAKER_01: And so um would just remind everyone again the importance of of uh of thinking and and executing on placing uh uh working orders here.
• 11:08
  SPEAKER_01: We're gonna get busier as we get into spring and all of those things and and uh quite important, right?
• 11:13
  SPEAKER_01: To to uh you know take all the things that we sort of talked about all winter long in terms of a plan and make sure that we have an opportunity to execute those as uh as voluntility is likely to increase as we go into the latter part of April and into May here.
• 11:27
  SPEAKER_02: For sure.
• 11:27
  SPEAKER_02: A few focus points and action points I'm working on right now as we head towards the end of the week to keep an eye on.
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_02: The soybean market still holding in pretty well.
• 11:35
  SPEAKER_02: We're above 1156.
• 11:36
  SPEAKER_02: We're within 20 cents of our high still there.
• 11:39
  SPEAKER_02: So that one's a major focus point for me still as we start to kind of get that crop in the ground.
• 11:44
  SPEAKER_02: Uh the corn market, I'm concerned about or focused on basis.
• 11:47
  SPEAKER_02: We've seen a little improvement on old crop basis on corn and soybeans in the Western corn belt.
• 11:52
  SPEAKER_02: Uh maybe something needs to be done there here before we get a second harvest type situation after planning's done.
• 11:58
  SPEAKER_02: And then uh the wheat market, obviously, with the rally we've seen there, uh uh some opportunities and all of those.
• 12:05
  SPEAKER_02: So those are a few of the grain action items I've been keeping an eye on.
• 12:08
  SPEAKER_02: Uh the meal market, I know we talked about it last week a little bit.
• 12:11
  SPEAKER_02: Um, that one hit a pretty strong rally and then kind of stabled off at the top of that trading range lately, too, for the end users listening today, Pat.
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_02: But any other final thoughts?
• 12:21
  SPEAKER_01: No, I again appreciate uh everyone taking the time to listen to our podcast.
• 12:24
  SPEAKER_01: If you got any questions, please give us a call.
• 12:26
  SPEAKER_02: For sure.
• 12:27
  SPEAKER_02: All right.
• 12:27
  SPEAKER_02: Thank you for everyone uh for tuning in today.
• 12:30
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• 12:34
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• 12:37
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