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Oct 09 | Commodity Week · Commodity Week

• 0:00
  Todd Gleason: This is the October 9 edition of Commodity Week. Welcome to Commodity Week. I am Todd Gleason. Our panelists for the day include Shane Holtorf. He's at Logic Ag Market in Alta, Iowa.
• 0:22
  Collin Watters joins us from the Illinois Corn Growers Association in Bloomington. Mike Zuzlow is here from globalcomresearch.com. He is in Atchison, Kansas. Do visit our website where you can sign up for the farm assets conference today. It's a part of the PharmDoc team's winter meeting season and it will be held next to ICGA at the Agra Center in Bloomington this year on Friday, December 12.
• 0:51
  Colin Waters, in fact, will be on one of the panels discussing logistics and new uses as well for corn. Colin, thank you for doing that. Let's start with you today. I'd like to know what's on your list of items that we should talk about, and I'll bet the Mississippi River is there.
• 1:07
  Collin Watters: Yeah. That's right, Todd. You know, I I think the last time that we spoke, I was fairly optimistic with, you know, where the, at least, the the weather forecast was. I guess that was probably back in Farm Progress Show. I was wrong.
• 1:23
  And yeah, basically the drought has really affected water levels on the Mississippi. That said, recent rain kind of in the Ohio Valley definitely helped, but we're still, we're still under restrictions moving southbound and northbound.
• 1:45
  Todd Gleason: Is there anything else on your list we should discuss today?
• 1:48
  Collin Watters: I I would maybe just throw out, you know, the government shutdown is, is gonna impact, you know, the publicly available, data. So so that's something that's out there as well that's kind of adding a little bit more uncertainty into the situation.
• 2:04
  Todd Gleason: Mike Zuzlow on your list.
• 2:05
  Mike Zuzolo: Yeah. Two things, Todd, that really, I think, came into focus on Thursday with the Mideast peace plan is we've got two very large geopolitical extremes building here. One being the Middle East peace plan phase one, what it does with the crude oil and dollar and therefore, commodities. And then it seems like as we get closer to the APEC meeting and and The US China negotiations and bilateral meeting between the two presidents, we're getting a framework developed here as far as how things are looking as we get towards the end of the month with these two the two largest economies of the world.
• 2:40
  Todd Gleason: We will take those up in just a bit. And Shane Holtorf, what's on your mind today?
• 2:45
  Shane Holtorf: Yeah. On my mind is probably what's what's happening out in the fields, conversations that we've had with farmers on the the yields, maybe versus some expectations, as well as just, you know, the strong export demand that we've seen on the corn side over the last sixty days here.
• 3:02
  Todd Gleason: Let's start with yields in your area. I know you are a farmer and you've been in the field. Lots of concern in Iowa from every place else in the country as it's related to southern rust. I think from Iowa farmers too. What have you been hearing and finding?
• 3:18
  Shane Holtorf: Yeah, so it's been interesting. The southern rust was definitely real, so I'm one that I apply fungicide pretty early on my farm and it definitely snuck up on me this year from the from the latter part of the fall or latter part of the summer that when the southern rust really came in it took the top end off of my crop and chatting with farmers, we cover, I'm gonna say we've a bulk of our customers are in Western Iowa, we stretch to Wisconsin, Minnesota, South Dakota. The big conversation that we've had with guys is yields are good, but they're not meeting their expectations that maybe that they had laid out for them in July and August, so I'm probably going to be right at my crop insurance APH maybe a touch above it on the corn side seems to be the flavor for a lot of guys. There's been some really exciting yields, you can move a mile down the road and find a really really disappointing yield. We're seeing a 120 to a 150 bushels of variability on the corn side, which is just, insane to even think about.
• 4:31
  Todd Gleason: Do you think that USDA in its last report, of course, there was supposed to be one on this date that we're recording, Thursday, October, that did not place take place. But in September, they put the corn yield at a 186.7. Is the national yield higher or lower than that at this point?
• 4:50
  Shane Holtorf: You know, I'm going to lead lean towards lower. You know, I don't I don't know if it will be by by much, know, but, you know, we start to shave a bushel or two off here or there and keep our strong export demand and all of a sudden things to continue to get tighter, but I just look at you know the gradual feel from folks from the field you know the last couple years you could feel the excitement you know it's our third record crop in a row you know you'd have a ton of conversations, and they're just not there, this year, and I think those were the conversations that were gonna have to take place to reach this lofty yield expectation that we had out there.
• 5:32
  Todd Gleason: And Mike Suslow from, your clientele across the breadth of the Midwest. What are you hearing?
• 5:38
  Mike Zuzolo: Yeah. I'm I'm feeling the exact same way, Todd. I mean, it seems to me that anecdotally, at least this at this level, especially Eastern Corn Belt or East Of The Mississippi River, Central And Eastern Corn Belt there, lot a of the guys are finished up on beans at this point, and they came in very, very good. And and I know there are some fifties, and then there's some really bad talk down South Of I US 50 down by Alney and on farther south. And and but it you know, there there are patches of really bad beans, but it seems like it's a lot easier to find conversations where that great big corn crop is just not there like was thought forty five days ago.
• 6:15
  And so it seems to me that that's kind of where we're headed, and maybe the trade will pick up on that. We'll have to be watching the spreads, and we'll have to be watching the cash basis now that we've gone dark. Even the export sales on Thursday were not released now this week. So, we're going to be a dearth of information to be able to, you know, see where we're headed as far as both demand and supply.
• 6:37
  Todd Gleason: Cullen Waters, does the Illinois Corn Growers Association get updated information as it it's related to what, yields across the country might be? And more importantly, I might ask it this way. While farmers are not looking forward to the exceptional crop they thought they had in late July, early August, is it really that much smaller than what USDA gave us in September?
• 7:04
  Collin Watters: Yeah. That's a million dollar question. I think that at least most of the information that I have is very anecdotal. And even when USDA came out with those really big numbers, I think there was a lot of skepticism you know that it was even possible. And this is you know coming on the heels of some big crops.
• 7:28
  I think you know definitely the you know the July, August, the discrepancy between the two in terms of the weather. I mean August was just it really took the top end out of this crop I think. But I think most of the folks that I've talked to didn't necessarily believe it to begin with. I don't know if their expectations are now tempered a little bit. But but I would say, you know, on the on the soybean side, I I have heard some fairly positive news.
• 8:04
  You know, guys who were just weren't expecting it to to to have much of a crop at all. They, you know, it it made it through. So but it it it's incredibly variable, you know, like in in Southern Illinois, it was really kind of catastrophic. Central Illinois seems to be doing okay, but I don't I wouldn't I wouldn't bet on another record right now.
• 8:28
  Todd Gleason: Shane, what did you have for soybean harvest and how is it going out in your area?
• 8:32
  Shane Holtorf: Yeah. So the soybean harvest, you know, it's kind of interesting where I'm at. Callan County is is is where I farm, so if you start in the Northwest corner of the state count four counties down, four counties over, is where I sit and we've never been exceptional soybean farmers here, so if you could catch the low 60s from year to year, you know that was really good and this year in Calhoun County soybeans were mid to upper 60s, even some low 70s, but if you go west to Buena Vista where my office sits at Alta, now those guys are known for growing 75 to 80 bushel beans year in year out and they're also in the mid 60s and so it kind of leveled the playing field so to speak in some of these Northwest Iowa counties instead of the you know the big big producers. They kind of fell down to where everyone else was at. So it's it's kind of interesting with that data and you know what's interesting we we also sell crop insurance so you start to get some of these reports come in and what I've kind of found is you know, the big yields were talked about really early on and when we wrapped up soybean harvest, we were harvesting 8% beans and so, you know, you lose some yield there as well.
• 9:56
  Todd Gleason: It'll be interesting to see how all that plays out. Have the North Dakota, South Dakota soybeans not moving out the PNW had much of an impact on your local basis for soybean?
• 10:09
  Shane Holtorf: Yeah. That's a good question. So we we've got a new crush plant, soybean crush plant right now to and they had talked very heavily about railing some beans in in September. Don't think it ever got done. They got very, very aggressive, at the start of bean harvest on basis, so we were looking at a 40 under, and then it shut off to a 70 under, even 75 under there for a little bit, and now I see they've snapped it back to a 50 under.
• 10:38
  And so very quickly, basis got wide. Now I think they're starting to realize that maybe it's not out there, and they've they've starting to pull it back in.
• 10:47
  Todd Gleason: Mike, are you hearing the same thing about basis across the Western part of the nation?
• 10:52
  Mike Zuzolo: Yeah. I am. And in fact, one of the things that I reason I brought up Alney was I noticed that Alney went from about 33 under in soybeans to 20 under just today and now 15 over on the corn. And so I think it really goes with what Colin talking about with the variability. We're still stuck at 75 under on soybeans.
• 11:12
  I think we're certainly feeling the heat, so to speak, from the Northern Plains. Some have talked about today on the end of the week here, Todd, that the Pacific Northwest was bouncing a little bit. Not seeing it in the Dakotas yet. One of the key areas I look at North Dakota is still at 155 under, still being talked about that they're going to have a hard time finding a place to sell soybeans. I would say based upon last weekend's drive, I've never seen in twelve, thirteen, fourteen years being out here in Northeast Kansas going across the border into Northwestern Missouri, never seen the amount of bags being used and how much is being set aside on the edge of fields this fall.
• 11:55
  So while I think our yields are on the top end here in this part of Kansas, and I think you don't have to go very far to see some weaker yields, but certainly feeling the pinch of of the issues with what's going on with the Chinese demand.
• 12:12
  Todd Gleason: Why why do you think that Olney's bids are closing up at this point. I don't know. Are they close enough to the Ohio River that that's what's happening, or is it something else in the area?
• 12:26
  Mike Zuzolo: I think it goes back to maybe what Colin was talking about where the commercial's prepared for a big, big crop. And now that they're in the crop, the producers down there never really believed it was happening. And you don't have to go too far south of Olney. I've seen text messages of producers saying that they're baling their soybeans instead of cutting them. They're using them for essentially straw.
• 12:48
  And the same would be for the corn. That August heat, overnight heat, really took a hit on terms of not just what we were hearing from our gentlemen in Iowa about the low 8% soybeans, but also the kernel depth on the corn. So I think the reality of the cash basis is starting to set in versus what USDA is suggesting. I I'm gonna have a hard time staying above $1.84 on corn. I think I can stay above 53 on beans at this point, but it's gonna be hard for me to stay above one eighty four nationally on corn from what I'm hearing and seeing.
• 13:22
  Todd Gleason: Tell me about the Mississippi River, Colin, as you see it and, its flow at the moment, what constriction that has on the marketplace.
• 13:31
  Collin Watters: Yeah. So the, current, restrictions, I I believe that below or at Memphis, the restriction is 11 feet. So it's, you know, it's not nearly as bad as it has been, you know, it's I guess, was that in '22 when, you know, it was a a nine foot restriction. But it's still, you know, it definitely it definitely doesn't help. Right?
• 14:01
  Any anytime that you restrict the size of the toes or the, you know, number of barges in the toe, you you basically just increase the cost of that that product to the to to export. So so, you know, I I guess the the the short version is that it's it's not as bad as it as it could have been, but I guess I am I'm not gonna go out on a limb this time and and make any weather predictions because, you know, it's it's looking like it could still be dry here for the next few weeks, and this is gonna be potentially more problematic.
• 14:39
  Todd Gleason: Shane, you wanted to talk about the export market, I think, as it was related to corn as opposed to soybeans. But if you could address what your concerns or your look forward to great things to happen might be.
• 14:54
  Shane Holtorf: We've seen very, very strong export demand in the last sixty days on the corn side, you know, beans have, you know they've been less than oppressive. Think everyone's just waiting on on China and that's the number one focus that was you know alluded to earlier in the conversation is sitting on the heels of these trade talks with China, but you know one thing that I like to talk about with folks is global demand is still global demand, and while it feels good to have China buy our beans, they're misplacing buyers in South America that are going to come to us and if you take a look you know we're just for round figures call it $15 a ton cheaper than South America and on corn and 40 on beans you know we're the essentially the low cost producer in the world right now and so I think that the corn demand is very very good right now and I look for it to stay very good and I think that beans, you know, there's a reason that we're the lowest price, and that's because we've got to spur a little bit of demand here, and I think we're gonna do it at these prices.
• 16:03
  And if we can get a trade deal put together, all the better.
• 16:07
  Todd Gleason: Mike Isuzlow, if you would talk about the APEC framework that you have been watching develop, how do you think that will impact the marketplace? And you can discuss corn along the way too.
• 16:20
  Mike Zuzolo: Yeah. I mean, broad brushing it and and following up with what Shane talked about, I I think I'm most concerned with the idea that we probably in the trade the futures trade have not gotten it through our minds yet, Todd, that we probably are not gonna get anything with China anytime soon. And this week, it seemed as though, unfortunately, that was the directional mindset that we saw both from The US side and the Chinese side. We US put on fresh sanctions for Chinese firms buying Iranian oil. China turned around and said, okay.
• 16:57
  We're gonna go ahead and make a move and restrict even more the rare earth mineral exports. And after that happened, president Trump had a cabinet meeting on Thursday afternoon. The secretary of agriculture made headlines saying that we were going to go ahead and get something out to producers because of their losses and the hurt they're feeling right now, but it won't be until after the government opens back up again. So that kind of answered that question to the market as far as what we were waiting for, and we're gonna have to wait until the government opens up. President Trump, I think, made a bigger piece of news, though, when he said he wants to discuss soybeans with President Xi, but maybe we'll have to stop importing massive amounts from China to get his attention, essentially.
• 17:43
  So we're going the wrong direction, and I wish that we would turn our attention more towards the domestic side, the biofuel side, and really work harder on insulating ourselves from China. Because to what Shane was talking about earlier, I agree with him 100%. We're a lot cheaper than Brazil right now in beans, but we are seeing a barter system set up between China and Brazil. We're seeing record numbers of EV cars from China being sent into Brazil and essentially paying for the soybeans without having to pay in US dollars. And I think that's the issue, not just now, but heading into 2026.
• 18:21
  And because we're dark from the government shutdown, it makes to me the November 25 delivery process at the end of this month extremely important in that either the cash market's too cheap because the yields are low and what we've been talking about here on the program, or the futures market's too expensive and needs to come down because it hasn't reconciled itself with the lost demand yet. And, yeah, we're only down, what, 17% versus last year in overall soybean exports. But we also have a bigger crop being grown right now starting in Brazil. So I'm watching 25 beans for the idea. Maybe I should get some more hedges on in '26 as we get closer to $11 if we can pop that number again.
• 19:07
  Todd Gleason: Cullen Mudders, that tees you up for the government shutdown you wanted to talk about. I don't know whether it was on those issues that Mike addressed, but you can tell me what you're thinking.
• 19:17
  Collin Watters: Yeah. Well, I mean, it's already been mentioned. You know, we've, we've missed out on some export sale reporting. The was supposed to be out today. You know, that kind of lack of information is not is is not very helpful.
• 19:35
  I guess that's probably the nicest way to put it. And and that and I I'm optimistic, I guess, that they'll be able to broker a deal and get through the politics of the shutdown here soon and and kinda get us get everything back on track. You know, in in terms of the potential government payments that would be going out, you know, I I definitely understand there's a lot of folks that are in a world of hurt right now, and anything would be would be helpful. But, you know, I I think that what what Mike had mentioned is is really, really important. You know, long term, need strong demand if we're going to improve prices.
• 20:18
  Will keep growing more and more corn, beans, whatever, and we need stronger markets, whether it's export or domestic, it really doesn't matter. So, you know, I I think that there could be some, you know, light at the end of the tunnel on on biofuels. I I don't know if, you know, the political climate is is right for for them to work out a deal for, you know, higher blends of ethanol, you know, in the in the real near term, but, you know, I I think that that that probably is is maybe more beneficial to the on the soybean side of the ledger. But, yeah, you know, having having government kinda out to lunch indefinitely, it it really doesn't help anybody.
• 21:08
  Todd Gleason: Iowa senator Chuck Grassley calling this week talked about when congress comes back after a settlement is made, and they have to attack, how funding of any kind of payments to producers might need to be, funneled into USDA because there's not enough money at CCC at the moment to pull that off. Also including e 15, which is what you just mentioned as it's related to higher blends, you don't think that's really in the works that e 15 can be bundled in with those as a way to help producers out across the Midwest?
• 21:46
  Collin Watters: Oh, I I I think that anything is possible. I just don't I just don't know how likely how likely that is right now. You know, there's it you know, obviously, when you're talking about the fuel market, it's there's there's a lot of interested parties that have nothing to do with with farm country. Right? So, yeah, I I think that it's it's certainly within the realm of possibility.
• 22:12
  I just I I just don't know that I'd bet on it right now.
• 22:15
  Todd Gleason: Shane Holtorf, I wanna come back to you as you were talking about soybeans. Corn too. You were talking about being, the least cost, producer on the planet, actually about the least cost availability on the planet. However, it appears that China is now certainly not going to buy for the 2025 calendar year. They'll turn their attention, of course, to Brazil in 2026.
• 22:48
  Do you suppose they can manage to get through to next fall easily enough without purchasing US soybeans?
• 22:54
  Shane Holtorf: Yeah. I certainly think that they've gotten their self set up, to do so. You know, they were well prepared in this game. I'll give them that. You know, essentially, they're going to have to skate for another three months to be able to do so.
• 23:10
  But, you know, sitting here, reading a lot of different analysts opinion and certainly there's a lot of folks that would agree with you and I'm one of them Todd that I don't think they're going to come to the table on their own even if we are the lowest cost producer. I think it's a matter of you know a political point at this point in time and so unless we strike a deal you know and put something together. I think they're gonna go without us for the time being.
• 23:42
  Todd Gleason: Mike Zuzalo, I wanna come back to you on these trade issues. I was thinking about this just today and looking up to see where we were as it related to either frameworks or deals or what the tariffs might be on different countries. Of course, they're all countries across the planet have a have an incoming tariff from The United States. Not many have imposed much in return on The United States as it relates to our exports to them. However, Mexico is still needing to be taken care of.
• 24:17
  The Canadian prime minister was in this week. Those two places are large export destinations for agricultural products. Do you have concerns about either of them?
• 24:29
  Mike Zuzolo: I they're paramount. I mean, let's just be blunt. They they have to be there for us next year, and I I hope that we understand that in the policy making arena. I think we do. And and I'll reiterate what we talked about several months ago, Todd.
• 24:43
  I I get it and understand why president Trump made this move. You know, his trade policy, economic policy, and foreign policy are all one and the same, and he is bringing other countries to the table to get something done foreign policy wise through economic trade means. And he's also sincere, and his trade people are sincere about bringing manufacturing back to The United States. And so this has to be underscored because that's not going to go away. And as Shane was talking about, China was very well prepared for this.
• 25:19
  You know, I've been doing a special report about the gold market and Bitcoin and these metals markets against the weakening dollar and found out that now for eleven months in a row, China has added to their gold reserves. Their central bank has bought gold for eleven months in a row, and their US treasury holdings as of late July are down 41% from the 2015. He came into power in 2012, and he essentially started the Belt and Road project. And that's what we're seeing right now unfold. So to get to your answers, we have to hold on to Latin, South America.
• 25:56
  I just saw across the wires on Thursday afternoon, the $20,000,000,000 bond bailout to Argentina got approved by the treasury secretary. That's a direct relation to holding on to Argentina and not losing them to China like we essentially have lost Brazil. And I'm not saying we lost them. I'm just saying those countries made those decisions to move with China instead of move with us. So the the Mexico Canada issue is paramount.
• 26:22
  I feel good about Canada. I think there's some headway made. I was actually thinking maybe we'd see something on the ethanol and biofuels by the end of this week because of the good meeting that I had heard they had. Mexico biggest thing to watch, I think, with Mexico is their drought ending and whether that is gonna decrease naturally their need for our corn because that's been a big part of why they've been buying these past three years.
• 26:44
  Todd Gleason: Then that wouldn't happen, of course, until next year sometime for the increase of corn if that was or decrease in corn, I mean, if that was the case.
• 26:54
  Mike Zuzolo: Yeah. I would guess because of their planting schedule, it probably wouldn't happen until around June at the earliest of next year. And and going back to, you know, Brazil and and China in your earlier question, I do think China's going to buy probably after the first of the calendar year of 2026, but I also saw that one of their largest pig producers, Muwan, came in and said, we're gonna slaughter 12 to 14 and a half million piglets instead of eight to 12,000,000. The Dalian hog futures was down 6% on that news and hit a new forty three month low. So we still have deflation and calling going on in China too, and that's a reality.
• 27:33
  Todd Gleason: Colin Waters, when folks are just talking at the corn growers headquarters there in Bloomington or if you're talking to NCGA in Saint Louis, what conversations are most often happening as it relates to policies?
• 27:48
  Collin Watters: Well, right now, obviously, trade is kind of top of mind for everybody. The we're, you know, talking about Canada and Mexico. The USMCA review is coming up next year. So, you know, we're putting together comments to submit to the federal register. And, you know, obviously, the you know, some of the some of the other kind of top line stuff is is really biofuels driven.
• 28:18
  You know, we're we we've really peaked in 2019 in terms of ethanol demand in The US. And, you know, as as cars just, you know, become more efficient and so forth, we're gonna probably see this kind of steady erosion. It's not a you know, I don't I don't expect some kind of cliff, but, that that market's not growing, And and, you know, production is. Right? So we're we're we're out of balance.
• 28:47
  And, that's, I guess, ultimately what, you know, what what we're focused on is how can we help drive demand.
• 28:55
  Todd Gleason: President Trump this week mentioned that the USMCA negotiations would be taking place next year. Do you suppose that means that he's kicking the can down the road for both Canada and Mexico?
• 29:08
  Collin Watters: No. I mean, that's all part of the original deal is there's a a review set in, in in the language originally. So, you know, there's a few different ways it could go. You know, in theory, it could it it could get blown up and everybody just walks away. I don't I don't really think that that's a realistic possibility.
• 29:32
  I I suspect that we'll we'll see some, you know, some some changes kind of on the margins. There there's you know, for for for ag, it's absolutely critical. You know? There there is no there's no other way to say it. Mexico is by far the largest importer of US corn, and Canada is by far the largest importer of US ethanol.
• 29:56
  For the, you know, the corn sector, it's our our neighbors are absolutely critical. But there's a lot of other sectors in the economy that don't necessarily see it that way. Right? So, you know, autos and and, you know, the dairy issues with Canada, it that's it's a pretty long list of of folks that are, you know, interested in this deal. So I suspect we're gonna hear a lot about, the different problems, but we're also gonna hear a lot about the, the positives of the of the agreement.
• 30:29
  And, you know, realistically, our our supply chains are so so integrated, you know, just across the board, you know, regardless of of the the sector of the economy. It's I think it's gonna be really difficult for for us to, you know, walk away from from the deal. So I I suspect, you know, minor changes and a renewal for, you know, some period of time next year.
• 30:53
  Todd Gleason: Shane Holtorf, when we have talked to you, last month, I think, you discussed that producers were rolling forward their old crop into into the new crop, what they had left, and maintaining it for corn particularly. Are they also not making sales at this point on a continuing basis?
• 31:18
  Shane Holtorf: Yeah. So we did see a lot of bins get cleaned out the last second, and I think, you know, if you look past the last couple years, you get to late August, early September, and basis gets very desperate. You know we didn't have that this year, you know there was a lot of end users that were carrying forward a little bit of production, but by and large we saw the farmers eventually fold in and deliver a good chunk of their production at you know the absolute worst time that they could have, but now we're seeing you know every place that they can put corn, every place that they can put beans is getting full. They're gonna utilize the storage again to what we've talked a little bit about here is they probably didn't believe the crop was out there from the start, so they've made plans on how to carry this crop and wait out a little bit of a yield change. You know on the corn side probably more so than the beans, but you know once they shut those doors they're certainly not going to open them until you know they feel that either the basis necessitates that move or futures does the work and so I think we're going to see a little bit of that back and forth now just because they've cleared their bins of the old crop and they were ready to hang tight here for a while.
• 32:45
  Todd Gleason: Finally, Mike Suzlow, before I let everybody go for the day, I want to check one of the things that you, had put on your list. It was the crude oil and the dollar. What were those relationships to the commodity markets you're thinking about?
• 33:00
  Mike Zuzolo: Yeah. So far since this phase one Mideast peace plan's been announced, Todd, we've seen a new two month high in the US dollar. It's about three and a half percent off its lows from last month, and we've also seen a new move back into close to the five month low in the crude oil market. And what I think is still occurring, unfortunately, is wheat is trapped by the US dollar and the crude oil price action like that. And that's increasingly trapping the corn market.
• 33:29
  And what I mean by that is over the medium term, with the wheat corn spread now firmly below a dollar, Asian buyers, and this is coming from Japan, Asian buyers have just gotten comfortable with really ramping up buying corn because it was so cheap. Now we're going to get to a point if we get too much lower in the wheat market because of the crude and the dollar, we may have to face a situation where Asia goes back to feeding wheat instead of corn. Another one of those things we can't have happen essentially in this kind of a market environment. So we really need to be monitoring that wheat market and the crude and the and the dollar. And it just goes back to the similar analysis that to me, it seems like wheat really does hold many of the cards to an ultimate low in this overall grain market.
• 34:12
  Todd Gleason: Commodity Week of course is a production of Illinois Public Media. It's public radio for the farming world. You may find and listen to the whole of the program anytime you'd like. You can do that at willag.org, willag.0rg, where you can sign up for the December 12 Farm Assets Conference and the Illinois Farm Economic Summit soon enough as well. Check all the details out online at willag.org or at farmdocdaily.illinois.edur.
• 34:42
  Thanks go to our panelists today including Shane Holtorf, Colin Waters, and Mike Suslow. I'm University of Illinois Extinction's Todd Gleeson.