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What Impact Will New Fed Chair Warsh Have on Policy? · Views from 6,230

• 0:00
  Fed
• 0:00
  chairperson,
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  it's,
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  it's,
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  it's
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  a
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  really
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  interesting
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  pick
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  to
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  have
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  wars
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  because
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  wars,
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  if
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  you
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  go
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  off
• 0:06
  his
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  voting
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  track
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  record
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  and
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  his
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  vocalization
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  of
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  policy,
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  he
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  seems
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  to
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  be
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  antithesis
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  of
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  what
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  Donald
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  Trump
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  wants
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  of
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  cutting
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  rates.
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  Now,
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  obviously
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  to
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  get
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  the
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  job,
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  you
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  had
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  to
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  at
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  least
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  tell
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  him
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  that
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  at
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  one
• 0:17
  point.
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  So
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  I'm
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  sure
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  that
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  happened
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  somewhere.
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  But
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  you
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  know,
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  he,
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  he's,
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  he's
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  historically
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  been
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  a
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  bit
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  of
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  an
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  inflation
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  hawk,
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  meaning
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  that
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  he
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  has
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  a
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  higher
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  keener
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  eye
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  on,
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  on
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  inflation,
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  but
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  also
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  he's
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  a
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  balance
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  sheet
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  hawk.
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  He
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  hates
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  the
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  size
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  of
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  the
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  Fed's
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  balance
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  sheet.
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  And
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  if
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  his
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  objective
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  is
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  to
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  reduce
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  the
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  size
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  of
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  the
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  balance
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  sheet,
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  that's
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  not
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  helping
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  monetary
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  pay.
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  That's
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  a
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  tightening
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  of
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  policy.
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  Mm-hmm.
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  And
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  so
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  someone
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  has
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  to
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  buy
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  those
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  treasuries
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  is
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  the
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  point.
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  So.
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  I
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  think
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  that
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  it's
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  an
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  interesting
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  pick
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  from
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  the
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  standpoint
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  that
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  I
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  think
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  he's
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  qualified
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  for.
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  Sure.
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  Uh,
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  I,
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  I
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  think
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  he's
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  a
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  good
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  pick,
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  but
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  we'll
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  have
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  to
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  see
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  how,
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  how
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  he
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  behaves.
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  And
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  I
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  say
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  that
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  because
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  when
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  you
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  get
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  into
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  like
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  the
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  Trump
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  orbit,
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  you
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  just,
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  you
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  can't
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  extrapolate
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  how
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  people
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  have
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  behaved
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  in
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  the
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  past.
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  Yeah.
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  He
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  tends
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  to
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  have
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  this,
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  this
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  power
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  over
• 1:02
  people.
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  So
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  I
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  think
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  it'll
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  be
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  interesting
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  to
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  watch
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  his
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  first
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  press
• 1:06
  conference.
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  I'm
• 1:07
  gonna
• 1:07
  go
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  out
• 1:08
  on
• 1:08
  a
• 1:08
  limb
• 1:08
  here
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  and
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  say
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  it's
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  not
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  gonna
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  go
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  well.
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  It's
• 1:10
  not
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  gonna
• 1:10
  go
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  well.
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  'cause
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  the
• 1:10
  reporters
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  are
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  armed
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  to
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  the
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  teeth
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  and
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  he's
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  not
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  used
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  to
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  that
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  forum
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  yet.
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  Yeah.
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  He'll
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  get
• 1:14
  he'll,
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  he'll,
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  he'll
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  get
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  into
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  the
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  job.
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  But
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  he's
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  only
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  one
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  person.
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  And
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  I,
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  I,
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  that's
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  what
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  I
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  want
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  to
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  come
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  back
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  to
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  is
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  that
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  so
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  much
• 1:20
  is
• 1:20
  made
• 1:20
  of
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  the
• 1:20
  Fed
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  chairperson
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  because
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  we've
• 1:22
  kind
• 1:23
  of
• 1:23
  made
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  them
• 1:23
  these
• 1:24
  mythical
• 1:24
  creatures,
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  you
• 1:25
  know,
• 1:25
  starting
• 1:25
  a
• 1:25
  Greenspan,
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  who's
• 1:26
  called
• 1:26
  the
• 1:26
  Maestro,
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  right?
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  Uh,
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  everyone
• 1:28
  subsequent
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  to
• 1:29
  Volker
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  has
• 1:30
  been
• 1:30
  in
• 1:31
  this
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  kind
• 1:31
  of
• 1:31
  world
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  of.
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  Really
• 1:33
  getting
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  the,
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  the
• 1:34
  consensus,
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  right.
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  He's
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  a,
• 1:35
  the,
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  the
• 1:36
  chairperson
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  is
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  a
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  consensus
• 1:37
  builder,
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  and
• 1:39
  what
• 1:39
  you
• 1:39
  have
• 1:40
  inside
• 1:40
  the
• 1:40
  Fed
• 1:40
  today
• 1:41
  is
• 1:41
  a
• 1:41
  lot
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  of
• 1:42
  divisive
• 1:42
  opinion.
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  Mm-hmm.
• 1:43
  I
• 1:43
  would
• 1:43
  say
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  there's
• 1:44
  probably
• 1:44
  more
• 1:44
  hawkish
• 1:45
  behavior
• 1:46
  than
• 1:46
  there's
• 1:46
  more
• 1:46
  dovish
• 1:47
  behavior.
• 1:48
  You
• 1:48
  know,
• 1:48
  you
• 1:48
  have
• 1:48
  your
• 1:48
  Miron
• 1:48
  on
• 1:49
  one
• 1:49
  side
• 1:49
  and
• 1:50
  you
• 1:50
  know
• 1:50
  you're
• 1:50
  gonna
• 1:50
  have
• 1:50
  GULs
• 1:51
  be
• 1:51
  on
• 1:51
  the
• 1:51
  other
• 1:51
  side.
• 1:51
  You're
• 1:51
  always
• 1:52
  gonna
• 1:52
  have
• 1:52
  this
• 1:52
  kind
• 1:52
  of
• 1:52
  pool.
• 1:53
  But
• 1:54
  the
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  thing
• 1:54
  is,
• 1:54
  is
• 1:54
  that.
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  Even
• 1:56
  warsh
• 1:56
  himself
• 1:57
  can't
• 1:57
  flip
• 1:57
  the
• 1:57
  vote
• 1:58
  right
• 1:58
  now.
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  And
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  so
• 1:59
  to
• 1:59
  me,
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  that's
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  what
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  I
• 2:00
  think
• 2:00
  the
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  market's
• 2:01
  gonna
• 2:01
  watch.
• 2:01
  And
• 2:02
  I
• 2:02
  think
• 2:02
  with
• 2:02
  this
• 2:02
  announcement,
• 2:03
  you
• 2:03
  see
• 2:03
  it
• 2:04
  out
• 2:04
  there.
• 2:04
  The
• 2:04
  markets
• 2:04
  have
• 2:04
  been
• 2:04
  well-behaved.
• 2:05
  It's
• 2:06
  not
• 2:06
  a
• 2:06
  bad
• 2:06
  pick,
• 2:07
  it's
• 2:07
  just
• 2:07
  we
• 2:07
  don't
• 2:07
  know
• 2:08
  what
• 2:08
  it'll
• 2:08
  be.
• 2:09
  And
• 2:09
  remember
• 2:09
  we
• 2:10
  got
• 2:10
  him
• 2:10
  for
• 2:10
  a
• 2:10
  long
• 2:10
  time
• 2:11
  now
• 2:11
  Once,
• 2:11
  once
• 2:11
  he
• 2:11
  gets
• 2:11
  confirmed,
• 2:12
  right?
• 2:12
  Yeah.
• 2:12
  And
• 2:13
  so
• 2:13
  this
• 2:13
  isn't
• 2:13
  just
• 2:13
  a
• 2:14
  Trump
• 2:14
  thing,
• 2:14
  it's
• 2:14
  the
• 2:14
  next
• 2:15
  administration,
• 2:15
  the
• 2:15
  next
• 2:16
  as
• 2:16
  well.
• 2:16
  So
• 2:17
  I,
• 2:17
  I
• 2:17
  think
• 2:17
  it's
• 2:17
  a
• 2:17
  good
• 2:17
  pick.
• 2:18
  I
• 2:18
  just
• 2:18
  don't
• 2:18
  know
• 2:19
  what
• 2:19
  to,
• 2:19
  what
• 2:19
  to
• 2:19
  make
• 2:20
  of
• 2:20
  it,
• 2:20
  because.
• 2:21
  Of
• 2:21
  the
• 2:21
  uncertainty
• 2:22
  around,
• 2:22
  I
• 2:22
  know
• 2:23
  know
• 2:23
  the
• 2:23
  one
• 2:23
  criterion
• 2:24
  for
• 2:24
  the
• 2:24
  job
• 2:25
  was
• 2:25
  you
• 2:25
  have
• 2:25
  to
• 2:25
  lower
• 2:25
  interest
• 2:26
  rates.
• 2:26
  Yeah.
• 2:26
  But
• 2:27
  it
• 2:27
  flies
• 2:27
  right
• 2:27
  in
• 2:27
  the
• 2:27
  face
• 2:28
  of
• 2:28
  unwinding
• 2:28
  the
• 2:29
  balance
• 2:29
  sheet.
• 2:29
  Right.
• 2:30
  But
• 2:30
  you
• 2:30
  could
• 2:30
  also
• 2:31
  argue
• 2:31
  that
• 2:31
  maybe
• 2:31
  you
• 2:32
  do
• 2:32
  both
• 2:33
  and
• 2:33
  then
• 2:33
  we
• 2:33
  have
• 2:33
  a
• 2:33
  neutralist
• 2:34
  policy
• 2:35
  because
• 2:35
  of
• 2:35
  it.
• 2:36
  But
• 2:36
  then
• 2:36
  why
• 2:36
  are
• 2:37
  you
• 2:37
  doing
• 2:37
  it?
• 2:37
  You
• 2:37
  know?
• 2:37
  I
• 2:37
  don't
• 2:38
  know.
• 2:38
  Mm-hmm.
• 2:38
  So,
• 2:38
  um,
• 2:39
  I,
• 2:39
  I,
• 2:39
  my,
• 2:40
  my,
• 2:40
  my,
• 2:40
  my
• 2:41
  verdict
• 2:41
  is,
• 2:41
  is
• 2:42
  yet
• 2:42
  to
• 2:42
  be
• 2:42
  rendered.
• 2:43
  And
• 2:43
  I'll
• 2:43
  watch
• 2:43
  him,
• 2:43
  uh,
• 2:44
  on
• 2:44
  the
• 2:44
  job.