Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / The $400 Billion BUY Warning! + Stock Market News 16 January 2024

Transcript

The $400 Billion BUY Warning! + Stock Market News 16 January 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: It's there.
• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Good morning to you After the long holiday.
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Well, we've got some news for you and I'm going to run you through it.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Break down the key data points for you, so you're the best informed investor out there, so you can make more money.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: That's what this is all about.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: In case you were wondering Now, youtube just said to me this would be a good time to insert an ad.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: I think we'll skip that, because that's not what we're here for.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: Winston back there snoozing very soundly.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: He already knows the information.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: He's done all the research with this big nose.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Now, what isn't the thing that we're on the cusp of collapsing?
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: Well, it isn't Elon Musk, who's set today on his ex that, unless he gets 25% of voting rights and he only owns 13% of the company he is not comfortable developing AI and robotics inside of Tesla, in which case Tesla would be a car company which would suck.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: So he's basically putting pressure on the board to give him double voting rights, which isn't unusual.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: The Zuckerbergs have them, the Palantirs have them.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: It's entirely possible, but it would mean changes to whatever on the board has to approve it.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: Shareholders probably have to approve it.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: I think shareholders would vote for it in a heartbeat because, well, we want the AI and the robots to stay in Tesla and not become a separate business.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: So that's one thing today, but that's not actually it.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: It's also not Jim Cramer saying that Donald Trump won't win the Republican caucus in Iowa.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: Is this man ever right Ever?
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: And is he just on TV because it's entertaining that he's permanently wrong, or what is it all about?
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: No, it's not that either.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: It's not about the World Economic Forum either, and this is an actual photo from inside one of the meetings, in case you were wondering.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: No, it's not that either.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: It's also not the fact that you haven't yet signed up to our live trading training, which takes place in exactly 58 minutes, as I'm recording this live, or live streaming this live, where I'll teach you how you can trade one stock with three simple rules.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: We'll do live trading together and I'll show you how we made $3,492 last week doing four trades, which took me literally less than an hour.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: So if you want to learn how we do that Felix Ranzer-Dogslash webinar there's a link at the top of the screen somewhere in the description.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: Likely as well.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: It's also not the fact that groceries have gone up by a whopping 25 percentage points since the end of 2019.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: Inflation is gone.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: Well, inflation sticks around, it's just it doesn't accelerate as quickly as it once was.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: No, it's not that either.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: It's also not the fact that half of all office loans are at risk of default.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: I think it's about 44%.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: Almost half of every office building out there that's got financing on it is at risk of default.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: That's insane, really insane.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: And that's not CNBC coming up with it, it's the National Bureau of Economic Research.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: Doesn't get any duller than that.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: But that's not it either.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: That's not the terrible news.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: It also isn't the fact that every single time when you've done aggressive rate hikes, you get a recession.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: No, it's not that either.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: It's historically a complete fact that you always get a recession, but no, it's not that either.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: There won't be a recession this year.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: Papa Biden said there won't be a recession.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: Then he tried to figure out which direction to walk off the stage.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: It's also not the fact that insider transactions sell side transactions, bearish transactions, which means people who work in senior management at listed companies are selling well more shares than ever before Not quite Certainly more than at any time in the last year, and I mean not a little bit more, but like six times more this January.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: They're selling like mad, absolutely mad.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: And if you thought it was something to do with taxation, well, last year they didn't do it.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: So no, it's got nothing to do with taxation, it's got a lot to do with our stocks are really expensive, darling Shall we buy that other boat, you know?
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: Shall we build a banker on the beach in Maui?
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: Zuckerberg's, you know?
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: It's that kind of thing they're getting out Now.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: It's actually this, the most exciting chart you've yet to see in your short but glorious life, the kind of thing that you might want to screenshot and show you a better half, because he or she will think you're incredibly interesting.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: And it is the cumulative aggregate excess savings.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: Shoot me now, right, what does it mean?
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: Okay, so what have we done during COVID?
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: Well, not we, but the US government, in its infinite wisdom, pumped a load of money into, and the Fed into, consumers pockets about two trillion dollars, something like two trillion dollars, 2.1 trillion.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: And also, the consumer wasn't driving to work.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: They weren't wasting their money at Starbucks and sandwiches and all the usual nonsense they buy just to get themselves to the workday.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: No, they actually had a glimpse of what life could be like.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: Well, without the masks and lockdowns and compulsory vaccinations if life was actually free.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: And they've held on to quite a lot of that money and those excess savings, as the Fed calls them, which tells you something about the warped nature of their mind and the inability of some of you as to hit the like button, which I truly appreciate.
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: Thank you very much.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: And right now these excess savings are nearly exhausted.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: So we're estimating that by about March this year that figure will go to zero, which is where it was pre COVID.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: And what does that mean?
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: It means this buffer that gets us through every bit of bad news out there higher gas prices and whatnot.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: This means there isn't that buffer anymore, so the consumer's ability to bail out the US economy will be severely, severely restricted, because they'll just be out of money.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: Now, is that the worst news of the day before we look at the life market?
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: Not quite.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: 56 million Americans have debt on their credit card for at least a year.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: Oh, my freaking God, at least a year.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: There's a reason.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: What's the guy called Don't have a book of them, as I wear out?
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: There's a reason Dave Ramsey makes a lot of money because 56 million Americans need to buy his freaking book and actually read it.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: Don't have to.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: Credit cards are brilliant.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: I love my credit cards.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: I've got like 10 million Amex points which I've just spent, which is brilliant.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: All the first class flights for the year, basically, are free.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: It's amazing.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: But of course I pay the bloody thing off.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: In fact, I pay it every week because I don't like the balance to go up every week.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: Every Monday I pay my Amex credit card off.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: Same thing, please.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: And what of course makes it worse is that half of all credit card holders off have not paid off their balance at the end of the month.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: Oh my God.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: I mean, do you think Dave Ramsey has achieved something?
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: Sorry, dave, we've got a lot of work cut out for you here.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: And that's up from last year.
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: It was 46% last year.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: So they are just paying like 20, 25, 30% interest because either they are just malinformed or they don't know where else to get their credit from.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: And it gets worse.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: And then we get chirpy again.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: Don't worry, we will get cheerful.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: I'll show you Winston and it'll make everything all right by now.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: Pay later is expected to massively boom, one of the reasons I like PayPal.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: This last year it was about $943 billion and that's going to double in the next two years to $1.8 trillion.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: And that's debt you can get once you maxed out your credit card seriously, and it is just another form of debt and it appears sort of interest free, but there must be obviously a problem with it somewhere.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: So this is expected to explode and it will be the debt bubble on top of the debt bubble on top of the debt bubble.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: It really is insane.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: Get rid of all your consumer debt.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: If you're going to do one thing this year, get rid of your consumer debt and get yourself another income stream, and I can help you with the income stream.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: Let's talk about that in a second.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: But there's just one more little thing here.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: I'm going to make this chart really big, because this is what's going to change this year from potentially oh my frickin' god, the consumer is out of money to aha, we're going to get bailed out again, aren't we?
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: Yes, we are, we're going to get bailed out again.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: So there is something called the overnight reverse repo purchase agreements which is even more sexy than the thing I just read out above and that is a bailout from the Fed to regional banks were mismanaged and managed by a bunch of nincompoops and that is now only got 400 billion left.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: And you might think 400 billion is a lot.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: It's not, sorry to say it isn't.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: This will go to zero about the same time.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: The US consumer runs out of dough and around about March, and that is why the Fed will stop shredding money in March, whether or not they give us a rate cut I think it's a slightly different story.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: But not shredding money is kind of the equivalent of a rate cut, so the market will actually quite like it either way and they'll come up with another way of bailing out these banks because they really really, really really have to.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: And JP Morgan already knows it.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: They just put this out North America fixed income strategy paper from the 12th of January and it says it's all over now QT, which is quantitative tightening money shredding.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: We now expect that the FOMC, the Fed, will have the outline of a timeline at the January meeting, communicating mid-February minutes to that meeting.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: What have they said in that sentence?
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: Can somebody tell me that?
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: Nothing right, we expect.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: This is the summary.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: By the way, we accept this plan.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: We'll be formally agreed to at the mid-March meeting and it'll be implemented beginning in April.
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: So basically saying they will stop shredding or reduce shredding money initially and will then stop concluding money shredding sometime during 2024.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: And if this is communicated, so we get to hear about it.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: Well, jp Morgan seems to know and then that will be a bailout again.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: We'll get another bailout.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: It's not lovely.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: Bailout after bailout after bailout.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: There's no risk, folks, just make more money, invest it.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: Come and look at me how you make more money.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: By the way, you do need a little bit of capital for this.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: It makes most sense if you've got like 10k plus, because, if we honestly do, trading really starts to become fun when you have $10,000 plus in your stocks or cash or in the mattress.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: And I will teach you in literally 48 minutes how we trade.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: One stock, three rules, 75% win ratio and it's live.
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: We'll do some drive trading together.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: You get to see the whole thing and it'll be fun.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: And Winston will be here too, which is, of course, extra fun.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: So there we are.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: Sign up for that before the spots run out and let me see any of your questions.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: Folks, we'll run through it.
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: Good morning from sunny Arizona.
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: Good morning from Colorado.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: Good morning to you.