Latest / The Sean O'Connell Show / Ben Linsey previews the NFL season including tonight's 49ers vs Rams game in Australia, Seahawks win over the Pats on Wednesday + more

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Ben Linsey previews the NFL season including tonight's 49ers vs Rams game in Australia, Seahawks win over the Pats on Wednesday + more · The Sean O'Connell Show

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  Speaker 1: You're tuned to the Sean O'Connell Show from the Murdoch
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  Speaker 1: Chevrolet studio of ESPN 700 and 92.1 FM. Welcome back
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: to the Sean O'Connell Show. Coming at you live from
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  Speaker 1: Southern Steer Butcher, 1705 North Redwood Road in Saratoga Springs.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: Thursdays down here you get 20% off. Hot dogs, sausages, burgers,
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  Speaker 1: everything for your neighborhood barbecue, your tailgate party as we
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  Speaker 1: march closer towards a kickoff between the University of Utah
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  Speaker 1: and Arkansas. But we're talking a little NFL today, at
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  Speaker 1: least here in hour number one. NFL games kicked off
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  Speaker 1: last night officially in the regular season with kind of
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  Speaker 1: a stinker, if we're being honest, between the Patriots and
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  Speaker 1: the Seahawks. Thursday night football preview here. on the Sean
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  Speaker 1: O'Connell Show as we get ready for the one that
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  Speaker 1: everyone really cares about, the Melbourne-Australia game between my San
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  Speaker 1: Francisco 49ers and the Super Bowl favorite, L.A.
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  Speaker 2: Rams.
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  Speaker 1: Ben Lindsay from Sumer Sports is kind enough to join
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  Speaker 1: us here to talk about what we saw last night,
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  Speaker 1: what we should expect from tonight, and all things NFL.
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  Speaker 1: He is the senior content researcher at Sumer Sports, at
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  Speaker 1: BenLindsay underscore on Twitter if you're not already following. Ben,
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  Speaker 1: welcome to the show.
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  Speaker 2: How are you? I'm doing well, can't complain. Had NFL
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  Speaker 2: football last night, have some more tonight. Full slate this weekend,
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  Speaker 2: so I'm good.
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  Speaker 1: So back to busy season for all of you folks
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  Speaker 1: at Sumer Sports. And one thing I really truly appreciate
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  Speaker 1: is the analytical approach from Sumer Sports. But it seems
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  Speaker 1: like you, better than anyone, translates those numbers into practical
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  Speaker 1: football information, practical layman's terms that we could all understand.
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  Speaker 1: And with that in mind... Drake May last night was
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  Speaker 1: not the Drake May that the Patriots needed him to
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  Speaker 1: be if they want to make a return to the
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  Speaker 1: Super Bowl. Which numbers really jumped out for you, besides
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  Speaker 1: the three turnovers, of course, on what made Drake May's
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  Speaker 1: night so disastrous?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, the big one that jumped out, especially through the
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  Speaker 2: first three quarters, was his average time to throw, so
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  Speaker 2: how long it takes. from when the ball is snapped
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  Speaker 2: to when he gets rid of the ball, was 2.5 seconds,
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  Speaker 2: which was the same as his average depth of target,
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  Speaker 2: which is basically just how far downfield the ball is
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  Speaker 2: going on average. So their game plan coming in early
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  Speaker 2: was we saw what happened in the Super Bowl, the
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  Speaker 2: Seahawks' pass rush, got them on the ground a ton,
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  Speaker 2: forced them to make bad plays under pressure, and the
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  Speaker 2: Patriots came in and were like, that's not going to
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  Speaker 2: happen again. We're going to get the ball out. It's
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  Speaker 2: going to be a lot of quick swing passes underneath,
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  Speaker 2: passes close to the line of scrimmage. And through three quarters,
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  Speaker 2: that was working okay, right? But they weren't really getting
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  Speaker 2: any explosive plays. And then when you saw at the
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  Speaker 2: end of the game when he did try to force
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  Speaker 2: the ball downfield, throw it 15-plus yards downfield, that's when
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  Speaker 2: those mistakes came. And that's really what Seattle tries to do, right?
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  Speaker 2: They try to make you drive the ball down the
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  Speaker 2: field methodically. They do a really good job since Mike
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  Speaker 2: McDonald's gone there of taking away those big plays. And
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  Speaker 2: that was really the story for the Patriots a lot
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  Speaker 2: of last year was Drake May was awesome. pushing the
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  Speaker 2: ball downfield. One of the most efficient quarterbacks in the
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  Speaker 2: NFL wasn't able to do that against Seattle and ended
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  Speaker 2: up making mistakes when he did try to push the
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  Speaker 2: ball downfield.
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  Speaker 1: I can't say that I fault the game plan of
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  Speaker 1: trying to make those short throws turn into big yardage
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  Speaker 1: if A.J. Brown is available because I'm looking at your
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  Speaker 1: Twitter right now and they mentioned it on the broadcast
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  Speaker 1: as well but A.J. Brown does more than anyone in
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  Speaker 1: the NFL when it comes to receiving yards off of
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  Speaker 1: slant routes. And as you referenced in your tweet, it's
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  Speaker 1: not particularly close. This is a guy who turns a
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  Speaker 1: short throw into a big play. Obviously, he was a
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  Speaker 1: big offseason acquisition for the Patriots, but does that game
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  Speaker 1: plan then go out the window if you have a
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  Speaker 1: compromised or an absent A.J.
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  Speaker 2: Brown?
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  Speaker 1: Was that a big problem for them and maybe the
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  Speaker 1: reason why things went awry?
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  Speaker 2: I think so. And they have some other players like
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  Speaker 2: Pop Douglas in the slot as a guy who can
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  Speaker 2: create after the catch a little bit. But really when
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  Speaker 2: the Patriots, you come out of this offseason and there's
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  Speaker 2: talk about they had a light schedule. They're probably going
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  Speaker 2: to regress a little bit this year. But at the
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  Speaker 2: same time, their receiving core on paper looked a lot
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  Speaker 2: better coming into this year. Bringing in A.J. Brown, who
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  Speaker 2: like you mentioned, can create after the catch, can also
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  Speaker 2: win downfields. and honestly should have had a pretty easy
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  Speaker 2: touchdown on the DPI, that guy called, that May underthrew.
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  Speaker 2: You bring in Romeo Dobbs, who was a consistent receiver
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  Speaker 2: for Green Bay. He has a massive drop in the game.
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  Speaker 2: So that was one of the more disappointing things in
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  Speaker 2: that game is those acquisitions at wide receiver that were
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  Speaker 2: supposed to improve the room. Brown gets hurt. Dobbs doesn't
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  Speaker 2: have a great game. Really underperform. And like you mentioned,
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  Speaker 2: that game plan, it's harder to execute, right, if you
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  Speaker 2: don't have these receivers that you're getting the ball out two,
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  Speaker 2: three yards past the line of scrimmage, and they're not
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  Speaker 2: able to break tackles, turn those into bigger games.
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  Speaker 1: Seattle was dealing with their own problems, obviously. Sam Darnold
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  Speaker 1: goes down early in this game, and Drew Locke, from
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  Speaker 1: a numbers perspective, has not traditionally been all that fantastic.
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  Speaker 1: I can't imagine that he pictured any scenario in which
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  Speaker 1: he was going to be playing this much of the
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  Speaker 1: first game of the season, but he did enough to
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  Speaker 1: get the job done. and he leaned on Jackson Smith
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  Speaker 1: and Jigba in order to do so. What did the
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  Speaker 1: numbers say about Drew Locke's performance?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I thought he was solid. And like you mentioned,
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  Speaker 2: it was a lot of Jackson Smith and Jigba. That
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  Speaker 2: was basically their passing offense in 2025. He led the
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  Speaker 2: NFL with a 36% target share. Last night he had
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  Speaker 2: a 46% target share. So the ball almost half the
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  Speaker 2: time is going to Jackson Smith and Jigba. But I
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  Speaker 2: think what Seattle does well is, They move him around
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  Speaker 2: the formation a good amount. They get him outside. They
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  Speaker 2: get him in the slot. You saw a few plays
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  Speaker 2: in the game yesterday where he's coming out of the
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  Speaker 2: backfield to try to get him favorable matchups. So Locke executed.
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  Speaker 2: And I also think that Seattle did a pretty good
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  Speaker 2: job on outside zone runs, specifically with Judarian Price coming
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  Speaker 2: in to replace Kenneth Walker. Stat line wasn't super impressive,
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  Speaker 2: but I thought the tape looked pretty good on him.
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  Speaker 2: And them being able to lean on the run game,
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  Speaker 2: not ask Drew Locke to do anything crazy. And then
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  Speaker 2: obviously with that defense, you don't have to be super
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  Speaker 2: explosive offensively in a lot of games. And I thought
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  Speaker 2: Locke handled what they asked him to do.
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  Speaker 1: Ben Lindsay is our guest here talking NFL football. Ben
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  Speaker 1: is the senior content researcher at Sumer Sports who does great,
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  Speaker 1: great work on examining the game of football from an
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  Speaker 1: analytics perspective and then translating those numbers into to Laban's
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  Speaker 1: terms for all of us out here who are trying
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  Speaker 1: to figure out the intricacies of football. Thursday night game
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  Speaker 1: and one of the big storylines so far as we
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  Speaker 1: get closer to Rams-Niners is the difference in travel schedules.
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  Speaker 1: The Niners have been in Australia for a week plus.
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  Speaker 1: The Rams flew out yesterday and they're going to be
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  Speaker 1: there on the ground for like 36 hours or whatever
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  Speaker 1: the total is going to end up being in Australia.
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  Speaker 1: And the difference of approaches is going to be, I think,
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  Speaker 1: examined very carefully by all these teams that are asked
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  Speaker 1: to fly and play international games as we move forward.
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  Speaker 1: Do we have an analytical perspective yet on which is
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  Speaker 1: the better chance or which is the better idea for
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  Speaker 1: a team to maximize their success?
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  Speaker 2: I can't say I do. I'm not a sleep jet
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  Speaker 2: lag expert, but it's certainly an interesting thing to talk about, right,
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  Speaker 2: with the two different approaches. The sample size is going
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  Speaker 2: to be one, and there's a lot of other factors.
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  Speaker 2: But it is something that coming out of this game,
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  Speaker 2: even like beyond just the result of this game, how
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  Speaker 2: it impacts week two with the 49ers trying to get readjusted,
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  Speaker 2: maybe the Rams. have less readjustment to do coming back.
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  Speaker 2: There's definitely a lot of interesting angles from that perspective.
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  Speaker 2: But I don't know if there's an analytical lean for
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  Speaker 2: me on that.
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  Speaker 1: I'm a Niners guy, and so this is a game
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  Speaker 1: I was circling from the very beginning of the offseason.
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  Speaker 1: And then, of course, you get the news that Aaron
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  Speaker 1: Donald's coming out of retirement and he's going to be
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  Speaker 1: part of this team alongside Myles Garrett. And then, oh wait,
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  Speaker 1: Aaron Donald is not going to be In Australia, when
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  Speaker 1: you remove an Aaron Donald, even an Aaron Donald that
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  Speaker 1: is two years out of the NFL and just coming
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  Speaker 1: off retirement, when you remove him from a game, what
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  Speaker 1: does that usually do for an opposing offense?
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  Speaker 2: It helps. It's not necessarily something where I guess the
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  Speaker 2: Rams were expecting to have Aaron Donald all season, but
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  Speaker 2: it's a lot to deal with, as many people have
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  Speaker 2: talked about, especially if you're throwing– Aaron Donald and Miles
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  Speaker 2: Garrett on the same side of the line of scrimmage.
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  Speaker 2: And to go along with the other talented pass rushers
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  Speaker 2: that the Rams already have on their roster, and Kobe
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  Speaker 2: Turner and Byron Young, is a situation where Miles Garrett
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  Speaker 2: is a guy, throughout his career at Cleveland, he's getting
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  Speaker 2: the extra attention from opposing offensive lines, getting double teams,
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  Speaker 2: getting chips. That's probably still going to be the case.
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  Speaker 2: But it's a lot harder to do that against this
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  Speaker 2: Rams defensive front with all the options they have. And
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  Speaker 2: he's probably there. The other guys are going to get
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  Speaker 2: more one-on-ones. And just removing Aaron Donald from that sort
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  Speaker 2: of helps the 49ers case, allow them to put more
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  Speaker 2: attention to guys like Myles Garrett and Kobe Turner.
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  Speaker 1: Are you a big believer in the Rams? They are
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  Speaker 1: the super... Super Bowl favorite in most books, and obviously,
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  Speaker 1: you know, the headlining names give you reason to believe
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  Speaker 1: that they should, if healthy, be able to handle a
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  Speaker 1: lot of challenges that they might face this year. Personally,
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  Speaker 1: are you as high on the Rams as other people are?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think they should be the Super
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  Speaker 2: Bowl favorites. It's difficult to kind of look at them,
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  Speaker 2: whatever their odds are, plus 500, plus 600, and being
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  Speaker 2: that heavy of favorites, it's hard to go into any
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  Speaker 2: football season with any team and just be like, they're
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  Speaker 2: going to win the Super Bowl. And actually, their offense,
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  Speaker 2: there is some more fragility than there is with a
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  Speaker 2: lot of teams, just given Stafford's age. given some of
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  Speaker 2: the questions they have at tackle. Devontae Adams has had
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  Speaker 2: a history of lower body injuries. If Stafford or Adams
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  Speaker 2: or one of these core pieces on offense goes down,
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  Speaker 2: you can say that for every team, but I think
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  Speaker 2: it's probably more likely for the Rams. Then that's a
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  Speaker 2: cause for concern. But if you just look at their
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  Speaker 2: roster on paper, the defense was strong until they got
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  Speaker 2: into the playoffs last year, and a lot of their
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  Speaker 2: issues were at corner. And they go out and address that,
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  Speaker 2: trading for Trent McDuffie, bringing in Jalen Watson from the Chiefs.
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  Speaker 2: not to mention the defensive line additions. I think it's
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  Speaker 2: hard to see a scenario where their defense isn't really good,
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  Speaker 2: and their offense was one of the most efficient offenses
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  Speaker 2: we've seen in recent years, particularly in the run game.
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  Speaker 2: Super successful running the ball. Then they were able to
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  Speaker 2: hit explosives out of heavier personnel in the pass game.
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  Speaker 2: So I think they should be the favorites. It's just
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  Speaker 2: tough to say. This team is definitely going to win
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  Speaker 2: the Super Bowl going into the year.
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  Speaker 1: Besides the Rams, who are you watching– closest who has
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  Speaker 1: your attention most whether it's because of the numbers or
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  Speaker 1: anything else who are you keeping an eye on this
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  Speaker 1: upcoming nfl season that just kicked off last.
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  Speaker 2: Night i think in the afc it's it's the bills
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  Speaker 2: have kind of gone under discussed um with a lot
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  Speaker 2: of these teams they've been a top four or five
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  Speaker 2: offense in the league basically since Josh Allen kind of
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  Speaker 2: ascended around 2018. They have a good offensive line. They
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  Speaker 2: have a good running game. Allen's one of the better
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  Speaker 2: quarterbacks in the league. Their big issue last season, particularly
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  Speaker 2: against defenses that wanted to play man coverage against them,
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  Speaker 2: was they just didn't have the receivers to consistently beat
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  Speaker 2: man coverage. One of their better options was Dalton Kincaid,
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  Speaker 2: who missed a lot of time last year with injury.
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  Speaker 2: They go out and bring in DJ Moore, and DJ
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  Speaker 2: Moore isn't an elite alpha wide receiver, but he is
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  Speaker 2: better than the options they had last year on the
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  Speaker 2: outside as a guy who can beat man coverage. And
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  Speaker 2: then Jim Leonard coming in as defensive coordinator. I think
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  Speaker 2: there's a chance that with some of the stuff he
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  Speaker 2: can do up front from a pressure, a stunting perspective,
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  Speaker 2: can give a little bit more life to their defense.
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  Speaker 2: So I think on the AFC, the Bills are interesting.
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  Speaker 2: And the other team in the NFC is the Lions.
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  Speaker 2: And they have injury question marks on defense. But I
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  Speaker 2: think the Lions are a team, really favorable schedule. A
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  Speaker 2: lot of their games are indoor, good weather, which is
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  Speaker 2: good for Jared Goff, who's struggled outside in cold weather
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  Speaker 2: to potentially get a high seed. And they just have
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  Speaker 2: one of the offenses in the league I'm most comfortable
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  Speaker 2: in with their skill position group. Some of the continuity
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  Speaker 2: they have with golf and those guys together. And then defensively,
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  Speaker 2: Kirby Joseph, Brian Branch, big injuries. But you do get
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  Speaker 2: a Lee McNeil back on the defensive line. It sounds
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  Speaker 2: like Joseph and Branch will come back some point early
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  Speaker 2: to midseason. And that's a team that could get some
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  Speaker 2: momentum going in late in the year.
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  Speaker 1: We started the show today talking about, I was ranting
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  Speaker 1: about how, you know, with quarterback play in particular, good
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  Speaker 1: is the enemy of great. When you have a good
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  Speaker 1: quarterback that can't quite get you over the hump, but
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  Speaker 1: he's not bad enough that you're ready to move on
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  Speaker 1: from him or whatever else, that can be the nightmare scenario,
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  Speaker 1: in my opinion, for some NFL teams. Where is that line, though?
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  Speaker 1: Where is the Mason Dixon line of, you know, this
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  Speaker 1: guy can win you a Super Bowl? Do you need
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  Speaker 1: a top five quarterback team? Do you need a top
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  Speaker 1: 10 quarterback from a numbers perspective or otherwise? What is
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: the difference between good and great when we're talking about
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  Speaker 1: NFL quarterbacks specifically?
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  Speaker 2: I think we've seen that line shift a little bit
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  Speaker 2: the last couple of years. With Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia,
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  Speaker 2: with Sam Darnold in Seattle last year, I think if
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  Speaker 2: you have even a top half of the league quarterback,
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  Speaker 2: You might not be in the conversation every year like
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  Speaker 2: you are with a top five quarterback, but with a
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  Speaker 2: strong supporting cast, strong play calling, a great defense like
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  Speaker 2: we saw on those Eagles teams, the Seahawks team last year,
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  Speaker 2: you can win a Super Bowl with the quarterback who's
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: in the 10 to 16 range advantage. It's just it
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  Speaker 2: puts more pressure on your roster building around them to
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  Speaker 2: have elite talent at other places and keep it under
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  Speaker 2: the salary cap than it does if you have a
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes type of quarterback.
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  Speaker 1: Ben, appreciate your time and your perspective. Appreciate all you
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: guys do over at Sumer Sports. It's become one of
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: our favorite resources here. So thanks for joining us today.
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  Speaker 2: Appreciate it.
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: Ben Lindsey, at Ben, L-I-N-S-E-Y underscore. Ben Lindsey, senior content
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: researcher over there at Sumer Sports.