Latest / The Morning Edition / Bravado and the backflip: Peter Hartcher on Trump's 24 hours of 'madness'

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Bravado and the backflip: Peter Hartcher on Trump's 24 hours of 'madness' · The Morning Edition

• 0:07
  S1: The last day or so has been a time of
• 0:09
  S1: madness for Donald Trump, according to many seasoned onlookers. First,
• 0:14
  S1: he announced that he would impose a shipping toll on
• 0:16
  S1: the Strait of Hormuz, something that would jack up petrol
• 0:20
  S1: prices and spike inflation. Then he backed down, only to
• 0:24
  S1: then threaten to take out Iranian bridges and power plants,
• 0:28
  S1: a move that could be considered a war crime. I'm
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  S1: Samantha Zellinger Maurice, and you're listening to The Morning Edition
• 0:35
  S1: from The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald. Today, international
• 0:39
  S1: and political editor Peter Hartcher reports from Washington, D.C., on
• 0:44
  S1: what might be the American president's most consequential flip flop
• 0:48
  S1: to date. Peter, welcome back to the podcast.
• 0:56
  S2: A pleasure, Samantha.
• 0:58
  S1: Okay, Peter, you've got to tell us about Donald Trump's
• 1:00
  S1: latest Escalation with the war in Iran. And then just
• 1:04
  S1: 45 minutes, really before recording this early on Wednesday morning,
• 1:09
  S1: Australian time, his back flip. What's happening? It's getting hard
• 1:13
  S1: to keep track of Peter.
• 1:15
  S2: Well, yes, this administration is very adept at the sudden escalation,
• 1:23
  S2: only to shrewdly de-escalate 24 hours later.
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  S3: The president updating on the Strait of Hormuz, saying he
• 1:30
  S3: is abandoning an idea that he floated to charge a
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  S3: toll for ships passing through the strait.
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  S4: He said he was reversing what he said yesterday about
• 1:38
  S4: that threat of charging a toll for ships passing through
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  S4: the Strait of Hormuz.
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  S5: I just told you, you have Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar,
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  S5: Bahrain and Kuwait, you know, primarily and then others. They
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  S5: I spoke to all of them, and they would love
• 1:56
  S5: to invest more money in the United States at record amounts.
• 2:00
  S5: And that would be very acceptable. And this way there's
• 2:03
  S5: no fee. I don't like the concept of a fee,
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  S5: but at the.
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  S6: Same time.
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  S2: Ago, the president declared that the US would start imposing
• 2:10
  S2: a 20% fee on all shipping that emerged through the
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  S2: Gulf of Hormuz and now no longer. He's withdrawn it.
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  S2: When the Iranians threatened to do it three weeks ago,
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  S2: it was derisively called an attempt to set up the
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  S2: Tehran tollbooth, and the Americans laughed at it. Secretary of
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  S2: State Marco Rubio said it's illegal to charge shipping to
• 2:43
  S2: put any sort of charge on shipping through a natural waterway.
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  S2: It's ridiculous. No country can do that. And then three
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  S2: weeks later, his own president announces the policy, you know,
• 2:55
  S2: full of confidence and bravado. And then 24 hours later,
• 3:01
  S2: it's gone.
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  S1: It's quite shocking really, isn't it? I mean, you and
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  S1: I were were talking right before recording that he has
• 3:09
  S1: had a habit, of course, of whiplashing, you know, declaring,
• 3:13
  S1: you know, remarkable policies or announcements and then very quickly backtracking.
• 3:18
  S1: But this is perhaps setting a new record, even for
• 3:20
  S1: Donald Trump. Yeah.
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  S2: The only equivalent, uh, speed record I could find was
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  S2: in February when, uh, the president appointed Elon Musk to
• 3:33
  S2: that so-called Doge exercise of cutting the size of the
• 3:37
  S2: federal bureaucracy when they sacked 180 staff members from the
• 3:43
  S2: Nuclear Safety Agency, the agency responsible for making sure that
• 3:49
  S2: all US fissile materials and missiles are stored, safely secured,
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  S2: properly maintained, uh, safely, only to rehire them 24 hours
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  S2: later after a series of absolutely frantic calls from Congress
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  S2: members and senators who had to point out to the
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  S2: administration the risk involved in what they'd done. That was
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  S2: a high point of recklessness, ignorance, sort of exuberant, ideologically
• 4:19
  S2: driven concept that government of any kind is inherently evil.
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  S2: But of course, they quickly reversed that decision, because even
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  S2: Donald Trump doesn't want nuclear weapons going off in his backyard.
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  S1: Okay. So tell us what led up to this, because
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  S1: only very recently, the United States and Iran had signed
• 4:42
  S1: a memorandum of understanding. There was what they were calling
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  S1: a cease fire. And then and then, of course, this.
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  S1: So what's happened, Peter?
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  S2: Well, it seems that Donald Trump simply grew frustrated with
• 4:57
  S2: his inability to negotiate a firm settlement with the Iranians
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  S2: that could open the Strait of Hormuz and keep it open.
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  S2: The two countries had a disagreement on the meaning of
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  S2: clause five of the Memorandum of Understanding that they'd agreed to.
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  S2: The Iranian said it clearly left them with responsibility for
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  S2: the management of the strait, which of course was not
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  S2: something that they had tried to exercise before being attacked
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  S2: by Israel and the US in this war. Launched on
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  S2: February 28th. But now that they've seen they can do it.
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  S2: They want to hold on to that power, that leverage.
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  S2: And Donald Trump insists, no, that's not what the memorandum means.
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  S2: It means you're just supposed to open the strait. And
• 5:44
  S2: over that disagreement, the two sides have started shelling the Iranians,
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  S2: shelling commercial shipping, getting trying to pass through without their permission.
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  S2: And the Americans then counter shelling the Iranians. So at
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  S2: the same time that he announced this 20% charge, Trump
• 6:02
  S2: also informed the Congress that the war was now restored
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  S2: and that the negotiating period was over, but in effect,
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  S2: they will continue to negotiate one way or another.
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  S1: Okay, so tell us what we can, I guess, read
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  S1: possibly from these actions of Donald Trump. Is this announcement
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  S1: and then very quick backflip that he was going to
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  S1: charge a toll for ships entering the Strait of Hormuz.
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  S1: Is this just a sheer act of desperation? Is this
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  S1: just evidence that this war has gone completely out of
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  S1: Donald Trump's grasp? Uh, was he even serious with this
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  S1: threat to begin with? Because surely that wouldn't have been
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  S1: something that I don't even know if the United States
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  S1: could manage that actually tolling ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
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  S2: Well, well, that last your last thought there, uh, really
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  S2: is the whole reason that this is so risible. Who
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  S2: can take seriously now any negotiating position he offers, who
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  S2: can deal with this, who can trust or give any
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  S2: credibility to this leader? I mean, this is just a joke, really.
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  S2: If it weren't so serious, we would be laughing out loud. Uh, look,
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  S2: it was a stupid, stupid idea. Apart from anything else, uh,
• 7:22
  S2: by putting a 20% levy on the price of everything
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  S2: coming through the Gulf of Hormuz, uh, Trump was putting
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  S2: a 20% price premium on the oil, uh, flowing through
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  S2: the Gulf, which would directly go onto the price of
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  S2: global oil. Now, that's about 20% on the current oil price. Uh, well,
• 7:45
  S2: that's about 15 to 17 USD a barrel. So that
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  S2: pushes up then the price of, of course, petrol and
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  S2: diesel around the world, but it also pushes up inflation.
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  S2: And on this very day, we had the new chairman
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  S2: of the Federal Reserve testifying to the Congress to say
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  S2: that the inflation problem has not been solved, and keeping
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  S2: open the option of having to raise interest rates again.
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  S2: So this is madness. Taming inflation is a persistent problem
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  S2: in most countries, but also in the US. Trump promised
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  S2: to bring prices down. Instead, he's putting them up. And
• 8:21
  S2: then he adds on top of that, this bizarrely bad
• 8:24
  S2: idea of an extra surcharge on the price. And it
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  S2: would not only affect oil, it would also affect hydrogen,
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  S2: it would affect fertiliser, go directly into the base input
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  S2: costs for oil and for agriculture, um, flowing on around
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  S2: the world. It was simply a nutty idea that he
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  S2: really should never have gone near. And if there were
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  S2: any proper consultation process in this government, he would never
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  S2: have said it. But instead, he's embarrassed himself once again,
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  S2: and he's tried to climb out of it with a
• 9:01
  S2: completely unsubstantiated claim that Middle Eastern countries, instead of paying
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  S2: this premium, asked him instead to accept massive is his word,
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  S2: with massive investments. It's frankly absurd.
• 9:19
  S1: After the break.
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  S2: So the US is paying a high price and the
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  S2: Iranians are loving extracting that price. It's encouraged. Vindicated. The
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  S2: most hardline elements of the Iranian regime.
• 9:37
  S7: Virginia Giuffre helped vanquish a prince and a millionaire.
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  S8: And I won't stop fighting. I will never be silenced.
• 9:44
  S7: But one of her toughest battles was a very private one.
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  S9: It was the worst thing that could have happened to her.
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  S9: Her children were her life.
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  S7: Virginia, a podcast from the newsrooms of the age, The
• 9:58
  S7: Sydney Morning Herald and WA today, out now.
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  S10: And so all of this, I guess.
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  S1: Gives credence to what you and I and others are
• 10:10
  S1: hearing from military analysts overseas and around the world, really,
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  S1: that Iran now has escalation dominance, right? That really it
• 10:17
  S1: is in control of how far this war escalates. Donald
• 10:22
  S1: Trump is not in control here. So given that, is
• 10:26
  S1: there any clear path forward for Donald Trump as to
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  S1: how he could compel Iran to to end this war?
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  S2: I think the popular parlance these days for that, Samantha,
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  S2: is Iran holds all the cards. Um.
• 10:40
  S1: Yeah. As much as Donald Trump says the opposite, right.
• 10:44
  S1: I mean, the he's been issuing all kinds of threats
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  S1: on social media, or at least he was 12 hours
• 10:51
  S1: before we started recording this. I think, you know, he
• 10:53
  S1: was sort of saying he's going to keep hitting them
• 10:55
  S1: and yeah, all kinds of threats.
• 10:58
  S2: Well, the Iranians are enjoying this position. I mean, it's
• 11:02
  S2: not good for their economy. It's not good for their people.
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  S2: But for the regime, for the international standing, for the
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  S2: legitimacy of their claim to, uh, to be defending against
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  S2: the US. Uh, the Iranians are having a good time
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  S2: as a middle power, defying all the might and fury.
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  S2: Its so called Operation Epic Fury, which has turned into
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  S2: Operation Epic fail. And the Israelis as well, uh, they're
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  S2: showing that they can continue to defy the US. And
• 11:38
  S2: with every passing day, although the Iranian economy is getting worse,
• 11:43
  S2: conditions are awful and inflation continues to increase. But the
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  S2: cost that the US is paying is that with each
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  S2: passing day, it continues to run down its strategic oil reserve,
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  S2: which is now badly depleted because it's been doing that
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  S2: to try and suppress the global oil price while it
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  S2: conducts this pointless war. At the same time, they're depleting
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  S2: their stocks of munitions, which are dangerously low levels. Already,
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  S2: the Iranians seem to be able to quickly ramp up
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  S2: production of their munitions, some of which are very simple, um,
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  S2: fast boats with mines you can push off the back
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  S2: um Shahed drones, which you can assemble in your garage,
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  S2: their basic low cost effective and quickly replaced. Uh, and
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  S2: the whole thing in addition is weighing on Trump's political
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  S2: standing at home in the US with the midterm elections approaching.
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  S2: So the US is paying a high price and the
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  S2: Iranians are loving extracting that price. And it's it's encouraged
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  S2: vindicated the most hardline elements of the Iranian regime, whose
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  S2: position politically, internally has now been strengthened immeasurably. We never
• 13:00
  S2: hear any more from the the president, the civilian president.
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  S2: Pezeshkian we only hear from the Revolutionary Guard Corps because
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  S2: they're now in control. They're humiliating, uh, the country that
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  S2: they call the great Satan and Israel, which they call
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  S2: the little Satan, and they're loving it.
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  S10: And so is there any.
• 13:19
  S1: Sort of indication or does this tell us anything about
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  S1: what sort of concessions Trump might be pushed to make
• 13:26
  S1: to end this war with Iran? I mean, for for
• 13:29
  S1: certainly since this began in February, since America struck Iran,
• 13:33
  S1: you know, he's been talking about how he's going to
• 13:35
  S1: get a much better deal than Obama got with the
• 13:38
  S1: deal that he made with Iran. What are we seeing,
• 13:41
  S1: I guess, out of this, in terms of what Trump
• 13:43
  S1: might have to agree to, to finally end this?
• 13:47
  S2: Well, in the MoU that they signed four weeks ago,
• 13:51
  S2: they did agree that they would unfreeze various Iranian assets
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  S2: that have been frozen in bank accounts around the world.
• 14:00
  S2: And depending on which ones you look at and how
• 14:02
  S2: you define that, it could be up to 100, 100
• 14:05
  S2: billion USD. So that's a substantial concession that the US
• 14:10
  S2: had already made. Now that's in abeyance while things are
• 14:14
  S2: in this mess. Now that's similar but with a larger
• 14:18
  S2: dollar figure attached to what the Obama administration and the
• 14:23
  S2: other European nations in that negotiation had agreed to under
• 14:26
  S2: the Obama administration. But I don't know if that will
• 14:30
  S2: be enough anymore, because at that point, the Iranians did
• 14:33
  S2: not have this coercive grip on the Strait of Hormuz
• 14:36
  S2: and the oil flow. Now they do. So the price
• 14:39
  S2: presumably will have to go up.
• 14:43
  S10: And so, Peter, you as it happens.
• 14:45
  S1: You're in Washington, D.C., as we're recording this. So what
• 14:49
  S1: are Republicans in the U.S. saying about this latest move
• 14:53
  S1: of Trump's? I mean, are you hearing anything? Are they panicking,
• 14:56
  S1: especially in light of the fact that these midterm elections
• 15:00
  S1: are looming there in November?
• 15:03
  S2: Well, from what I've seen and heard, the. Well, we
• 15:06
  S2: know that the Republicans are not enjoying this dragged out war, uh,
• 15:10
  S2: which is now in its fifth month. And Trump said
• 15:13
  S2: initially would take 4 to 6 weeks when he defends it,
• 15:18
  S2: as he did a couple of days ago. He defended
• 15:22
  S2: it by comparing it to the Vietnam War. He said, oh,
• 15:24
  S2: that went for 20 years. This has only been going
• 15:26
  S2: for four months. Now, if you have to present your
• 15:30
  S2: war as a success only by measure against Vietnam, you
• 15:35
  S2: know you've really buggered it up. The Republicans, of course,
• 15:38
  S2: would love to see the price of petrol come back down.
• 15:42
  S2: They would love to see America stop humiliating itself. But interestingly,
• 15:48
  S2: the US media news coverage of this backdown of Trump's.
• 15:53
  S2: You would expect to be the top line story in
• 15:55
  S2: every bulletin. It's not. It's about number 2 or 3
• 15:58
  S2: in the news rankings at the moment here in DC. Um,
• 16:03
  S2: and one of the reasons for that is that the
• 16:05
  S2: top story is the Ice agents again murdering civilians in
• 16:11
  S2: the streets. That's topping the outrage and news charts. And again,
• 16:17
  S2: dismaying Republicans who are not enjoying Any of this.
• 16:24
  S1: So low level, sort of muted chaos. Is that the
• 16:27
  S1: sort of feeling in Washington right now? Peter.
• 16:29
  S2: I would I would rate Trump better than that. I
• 16:33
  S2: would say this is high grade, high grade and sustained chaos.
• 16:38
  S1: Wow. Well, thank you so much, Peter, as always for
• 16:41
  S1: your time.
• 16:42
  S2: It's a pleasure, Samantha.
• 16:58
  S1: Today's episode was produced by Chai Wang. Our executive producer
• 17:02
  S1: is Tammy Mills, and our podcasts are overseen by Lisa
• 17:05
  S1: Muxworthy and Tom McKendrick. If you like our show, follow
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