Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Justin Phan and Jason Sobel Make You Smart About NBA + PGA

Transcript

Justin Phan and Jason Sobel Make You Smart About NBA + PGA · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:09
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network.
0:16
Speaker 1: I am Schad Millman, I'm your host. We have a massive,
0:19
Speaker 1: massive show today because it is PJA Championship Week out
0:26
Speaker 1: at Bethpage in Long Island. Uh. And of course we
0:29
Speaker 1: have the best golf writer of his generation working at
0:34
Speaker 1: the Action Network. That is Jason Sobel. He is going
0:36
Speaker 1: to come on later in the show. We are finally
0:39
Speaker 1: down to the conference finals in the NBA Playoffs, and
0:44
Speaker 1: we happen to have um, maybe the best NBA better
0:50
Speaker 1: currently in existence working with us at the Action Network
0:53
Speaker 1: that is Justin Fan. We're gonna explain to everybody how
0:56
Speaker 1: you can all jump on the fan wagon start following
1:01
Speaker 1: Justin in the Action Network app. But first up, the
1:05
Speaker 1: most polarizing man, not just at the Action Network but
1:09
Speaker 1: in all of sports media and potentially Twitter itself, Mr
1:19
Speaker 1: Darren Ravel, what's up. How you doing, buddy? I'm good,
1:26
Speaker 1: I'm good. I'm excited about this week. I'm excited about
1:30
Speaker 1: it too. We're gonna talk about a new project you're
1:32
Speaker 1: working on that's gonna debut on Twitter, and the reason
1:36
Speaker 1: why we decided to do on Twitter I think can
1:39
Speaker 1: be summed up in what you did on Twitter over
1:43
Speaker 1: the past same month. Because first, Um, on the night
1:49
Speaker 1: of the n C Double A Tournament finals, the championship game,
1:53
Speaker 1: you doing what you do, which is like completely authentic,
1:57
Speaker 1: passionate and genuine and then and willing to share it.
2:01
Speaker 1: And I say this with respect and admiration. Um, you
2:06
Speaker 1: sang one Shining Moment and you did like a whole
2:10
Speaker 1: rendition of it that we shared on the Action Network
2:13
Speaker 1: Twitter handle at Action Network HQ and that you shared,
2:17
Speaker 1: and honest to god, it had more views than the
2:21
Speaker 1: actual highlight reel that CBS put out for one Shining Moment.
2:24
Speaker 1: So that was more more, Yeah, it got, It got
2:27
Speaker 1: more than double. What if you added up the official
2:31
Speaker 1: n c A handle and the CBS handle got from
2:34
Speaker 1: the social output of one Shining Moment. So and that
2:39
Speaker 1: was just genuine honestly, we we were It was me
2:43
Speaker 1: and a couple of our guys are social guys, Jack
2:45
Speaker 1: and and Connor in the office and it was like
2:49
Speaker 1: seven thirty and we're saying to each other, God, this
2:52
Speaker 1: thing starts at nine twenty. There's nothing going on, and
2:56
Speaker 1: we felt that there was just a dead time. And
2:59
Speaker 1: I said, know, I loved one shining moment. I sang
3:02
Speaker 1: the song at my rehearsal dinner, SA there. I have
3:05
Speaker 1: a good relationship with David Barrett, the guy who wrote it.
3:08
Speaker 1: It's an important song and I couldn't wait for the tip,
3:12
Speaker 1: let alone one shining moment. We put it out there
3:14
Speaker 1: and I think, love it or hate it, people were
3:18
Speaker 1: talking about it, all right, So that was number one
3:21
Speaker 1: like that that trended so wildly that Tom Brady, who
3:25
Speaker 1: had just joined Twitter, that twigged it and said I'm
3:29
Speaker 1: leaving Twitter. You know. We got Tom Brady and J. J.
3:34
Speaker 1: Watt both responding. So that's that he interviewed him. I've
3:40
Speaker 1: interviewed him several times. I believe he'd know who I
3:46
Speaker 1: am if he saw me. But we are not acquaintances,
3:50
Speaker 1: nor does he follow me on Twitter. So that goes
3:52
Speaker 1: to show you how how much of a deal it was.
3:55
Speaker 1: Someone either sent it to him. You've got to see this,
3:58
Speaker 1: or he doesn't follow me. So alright, So the second
4:02
Speaker 1: thing you did, and I want to get this is
4:04
Speaker 1: all leading up to the premise of this project, and
4:06
Speaker 1: so I'm I'm deliberately creating a build up here so
4:09
Speaker 1: people are gonna have to hold on to listen to
4:11
Speaker 1: hear what you're gonna be doing on Twitter that that
4:14
Speaker 1: they control or enjoy, depending on their perspective. But the
4:17
Speaker 1: second thing you did was you posted a picture of
4:21
Speaker 1: the L. S U gymnastics team celebrating coming in second
4:24
Speaker 1: place in the NC Double A tournament and said why
4:27
Speaker 1: are they posting a billboard? And it set off a firestorm.
4:32
Speaker 1: Explain your logic and what happened. Well, the logic is
4:36
Speaker 1: simply the way they did it, that they had like
4:39
Speaker 1: a special logo that said runner up. Now I know
4:43
Speaker 1: that the n c A has given out trophies for
4:47
Speaker 1: the runner up for all their championships. I think since
4:52
Speaker 1: around Okay, so there is a runner up trophy. I
4:58
Speaker 1: have never seen a runner up logo. I did research
5:03
Speaker 1: the background quickly when I saw this online that they
5:07
Speaker 1: had a runner up billboard, and it was basically because L.
5:11
Speaker 1: S U Gymnastics had the greatest four year run in
5:14
Speaker 1: their history. They did not win a championship by gymnastics standards.
5:20
Speaker 1: They got beaten soundly by Oklahoma, and I just felt like,
5:26
Speaker 1: you can thank the community, you can say what a
5:29
Speaker 1: four year run, but to have them together holding the
5:33
Speaker 1: runner up trophy, with a runner up logo just to me.
5:37
Speaker 1: I just didn't like it, and I knew exactly what
5:40
Speaker 1: was going to happen. It's because it's me, But it's
5:42
Speaker 1: also because Twitter, by its nature, is out of context, right,
5:46
Speaker 1: Like I wasn't gonna explain the whole thing. All I
5:49
Speaker 1: was gonna say is I don't agree with how they
5:52
Speaker 1: put it out. And people went nuts, and the gymnastic
5:56
Speaker 1: team went nuts, and it became about me and how
5:59
Speaker 1: marble person and whatever. But but but I was trending
6:04
Speaker 1: nationally for five hours only to be topped, only to
6:12
Speaker 1: be topped by when you ran the forty yard dash
6:16
Speaker 1: before the NFL Draft, And the comments were both hilarious
6:21
Speaker 1: and mean, and some of them were just, you know,
6:24
Speaker 1: kind of neutral to supportive. Talk us through this, Darren, So,
6:32
Speaker 1: Nike gave an opportunity for a couple of journalists to
6:35
Speaker 1: run the four yard dash. It was actually a twenty
6:37
Speaker 1: yard dash, which they didn't had some formula because you
6:40
Speaker 1: started twice as to what would be a forty yard dash.
6:44
Speaker 1: She was in their headquarters in New York, so they
6:47
Speaker 1: didn't have forty yards to run straight. They gave some
6:50
Speaker 1: journalists the opportunity This is on the day of the
6:54
Speaker 1: the NFL draft um And there were several things that
6:59
Speaker 1: I knew going in that we would not make it
7:02
Speaker 1: ideal for me. One they wanted us to wear the
7:06
Speaker 1: their new cleats, which I'm just not a natural cleats.
7:10
Speaker 1: I'd rather wear running shoes. Two it was on like
7:13
Speaker 1: some sod type surface, you know, that was kind of slippery.
7:18
Speaker 1: And three I was running a half marathon two weeks
7:22
Speaker 1: later and I really didn't feel like carrying my A
7:25
Speaker 1: C L. So there was a lot of tentativeness. These
7:28
Speaker 1: are not excuses I am not I'm not saying this
7:31
Speaker 1: is why I ran it. I ran a six point
7:34
Speaker 1: nine nine, which is, you know, slower than rich Eysen's
7:39
Speaker 1: and the one that. But people really were making fun
7:41
Speaker 1: of my form, how I didn't lift my feet up
7:44
Speaker 1: and all this. And it's all good to me because
7:47
Speaker 1: I I don't pride myself on speed. I pride myself
7:50
Speaker 1: on actually running long distance. But people had a lot
7:54
Speaker 1: of fun at at my expense, and I read it
7:57
Speaker 1: with lee And as long as you know you're talking
8:00
Speaker 1: about me, and you can love me or hate me,
8:02
Speaker 1: I'm fine with it. But it managed to generate You
8:07
Speaker 1: would think someone just running a forty that there wouldn't
8:10
Speaker 1: be these type of feelings that would be evoked. But
8:14
Speaker 1: I guess, uh, it brought out the best and worst
8:17
Speaker 1: of people. Alright. So for again, you were trending on
8:24
Speaker 1: Twitter for that. And so look, you know how to
8:29
Speaker 1: piket people on Twitter. You know how to move the
8:32
Speaker 1: conversation on Twitter. Uh, we all came up with an
8:36
Speaker 1: idea for a new project that you're going to launch
8:39
Speaker 1: on Twitter. Today is Monday. You're gonna launch it today.
8:42
Speaker 1: People can engage with it the entire week. Um, tell
8:47
Speaker 1: us what you're gonna do. So basically, a lot of
8:52
Speaker 1: a lot of the time when I first started on Twitter,
8:54
Speaker 1: Twitter did not have any polling, uh the device, and
8:59
Speaker 1: so I had vote A for yes and B for no,
9:02
Speaker 1: and then I had someone counted up. It was. It
9:05
Speaker 1: was enough of a bit that when I asked Chrissie
9:08
Speaker 1: Teagan a way back to sign a Sports illustrated the
9:13
Speaker 1: photo of her, she wrote, do you like this? Vote
9:17
Speaker 1: A for yes, B for no. Then I still have that.
9:22
Speaker 1: But that so it became that much of a thing
9:24
Speaker 1: that I was doing that a lot. So, um, we
9:29
Speaker 1: you know, polling I've done a lot of polling, probably
9:31
Speaker 1: more than anyone else on Twitter, and i've you know,
9:35
Speaker 1: there are certain topics that just seemed to hit, whether
9:38
Speaker 1: it's relevant in the moment, or whether it's a standard
9:43
Speaker 1: thing that people just feel passionate about, whether it's the
9:46
Speaker 1: in and out versus Shake shack five guys debate which
9:51
Speaker 1: always goes nuts. You know, Twitter is very much a
9:54
Speaker 1: kind of in the moment and what do you think
9:57
Speaker 1: of this? And leading to the we're the phrase that
10:02
Speaker 1: has another thing that people make fun of me, the
10:06
Speaker 1: water cooler people talking at the water cooler over. So
10:10
Speaker 1: we've decided to to do this bit on Twitter. It's
10:14
Speaker 1: starting today. It's called ranked, and essentially what it is
10:18
Speaker 1: is I will go out UM and say, okay, this
10:23
Speaker 1: is our topic. You tell me what your favorites are
10:28
Speaker 1: in this topic, and then we will the next day
10:33
Speaker 1: put out a poll of the four most popular UM
10:37
Speaker 1: and then over a forty eight hour time frame, you
10:42
Speaker 1: will choose which one is your favorite. So the Twitter
10:45
Speaker 1: verse gets to decide, and then we make a a
10:49
Speaker 1: show or a podcast, or we'll have a conversation over
10:54
Speaker 1: that winner and talk to someone in the Twitter sphere
10:58
Speaker 1: or someone who knows something about that topic. Um, and
11:03
Speaker 1: make it a whole big thing. And and so it's
11:06
Speaker 1: like you it's like chose your own adventure, but it's
11:09
Speaker 1: it's crowdsourcing it. And I'm I think it's a good
11:12
Speaker 1: idea and I'm really excited to do it. I'm excited
11:17
Speaker 1: about it too. You you engave people on Twitter better
11:19
Speaker 1: than anything. And so, um, if you were to rank
11:23
Speaker 1: your forty or dash, you're trolling of the l s
11:27
Speaker 1: U gymnastics team and you're singing of one shining moment,
11:31
Speaker 1: how would you rank those in terms of your Twitter
11:35
Speaker 1: influencer lifestyle best to worst. Ah, that's a good one. Um,
11:42
Speaker 1: I think the the one shining moment. I would do
11:47
Speaker 1: one just because you know, to me, that's like I
11:51
Speaker 1: just wanted to have fun and blasted out and I
11:55
Speaker 1: didn't care what people thought. But I knew how people
11:59
Speaker 1: would think. I knew that people would go crazy over it. Um.
12:03
Speaker 1: So I felt like I liked how I knew that
12:07
Speaker 1: there was kind of this gap, and we filled the
12:09
Speaker 1: gap with content that people would like. Um too, I
12:12
Speaker 1: would say the LSU gymnastics thing because it's a little
12:15
Speaker 1: bit different. Um, it just it just was I just
12:20
Speaker 1: I just wanted to have it take. And I also, again,
12:23
Speaker 1: I'm self aware. I knew what was going to happen. Um.
12:28
Speaker 1: But but it's not like I do it as a device.
12:31
Speaker 1: I do it and I'm proud of it because I
12:33
Speaker 1: believe in it. Um. It's not quite the uh, your
12:38
Speaker 1: kid getting a trophy for coming in fourth place or
12:41
Speaker 1: a certificate for something you didn't win. But I thought
12:44
Speaker 1: it was worth pointing out. And the way people reacted,
12:47
Speaker 1: even if they reacted negatively, showed that it was worth
12:50
Speaker 1: pointing out. And then you know, the forty yard dash,
12:53
Speaker 1: I think is the last UM. But it's okay. I'm
12:57
Speaker 1: I knew that I wasn't going to run the fastest.
13:00
Speaker 1: Guess what, you wouldn't either, So I think people don't
13:04
Speaker 1: even know how they look when they run, but they
13:07
Speaker 1: just assumed that I look worse than everyone else. Um.
13:11
Speaker 1: But I also liked that I have in the back pocket.
13:13
Speaker 1: I also like that I have in my back pocket
13:16
Speaker 1: that Hey. Two weeks later, I ran a I ran
13:19
Speaker 1: a half marathon where only one of my miles was
13:23
Speaker 1: over ten minutes. Um. So like you could call me
13:27
Speaker 1: the worst athlete in the world. But I'm I'm not.
13:29
Speaker 1: I'm just I just walked like a duck and never
13:32
Speaker 1: got my when run like a duck and never got
13:34
Speaker 1: my feet corrected as a child for season. Who alright?
13:38
Speaker 1: That like we all look worse in video than we think.
13:40
Speaker 1: You know, a couple of years where you know, growing up,
13:43
Speaker 1: I was playing basketball with my friends every single day
13:46
Speaker 1: and we're like, let's videotape this. So you said, it
13:48
Speaker 1: came and we videotaped it. Then we watched it and
13:51
Speaker 1: we were so much slower and worse than the way
13:54
Speaker 1: we thought we looked when we were actually in the
13:57
Speaker 1: middle of the game. So let me asked me my
13:59
Speaker 1: last question here, yeah, us my last question. There's my
14:02
Speaker 1: last question. Go alright, go ahead, tell me your context. No,
14:06
Speaker 1: the only context people have are elite athletes who have
14:09
Speaker 1: practiced for a year. They don't have videos themselves running
14:14
Speaker 1: anything Like I was deceptively slow. You think I'm like
14:17
Speaker 1: a little guy, and I'm like relatively coordinated, so you
14:21
Speaker 1: think I'd be fast, and I was like I was
14:24
Speaker 1: making moves that they might as well have been in
14:27
Speaker 1: slow motion. Um, all right, so now we've gotten through this,
14:32
Speaker 1: tell me what ranked is going to be about what
14:33
Speaker 1: is the subject for Ranked this week? It better be timely,
14:37
Speaker 1: It better owned the conversation in Twitter, because that's all
14:40
Speaker 1: that matters. You need to be a facilitator. You need
14:43
Speaker 1: to be like the Damian Lillard of Twitter this week
14:46
Speaker 1: with Ranked. So it has to be It would either
14:50
Speaker 1: be two things. It would it would it would either
14:53
Speaker 1: be uh the worst companies that went public because of Uber.
14:59
Speaker 1: But I think one that's going to take over more
15:02
Speaker 1: is going to be what's the best show of all time?
15:07
Speaker 1: The best series? Because we have the Game of Thrones
15:10
Speaker 1: finale coming up. Um and admittedly I think, you know,
15:17
Speaker 1: I mean, my my favorite series is probably I'm gonna
15:21
Speaker 1: say it, I'm gonna say it the Wonder Years. Um
15:25
Speaker 1: and and people can again make fun of me for saying,
15:28
Speaker 1: what wait after your fourteen nothing else happened. Listen, We're
15:34
Speaker 1: we're all nostalgic about our childhood, but we want to
15:37
Speaker 1: hear from you kind of whether you think Game of
15:39
Speaker 1: Thrones is going to be in the top four or
15:42
Speaker 1: you know, whether it's Homeland or um, you know, and
15:47
Speaker 1: any any of the show is Obviously it's gonna be
15:49
Speaker 1: tough for us to go through all of them, but
15:52
Speaker 1: we're pretty confident we can get down to the to
15:55
Speaker 1: the final four and then give you forty eight hours
15:57
Speaker 1: to vote on it, and then spend uh a good
16:01
Speaker 1: time talking about the one that prevails. We're talking about
16:04
Speaker 1: best series of all time, not finales, Yes series. I mean,
16:10
Speaker 1: I already know the answers. The answers are the West Wing,
16:14
Speaker 1: Breaking Bad, Seinfeld, Sinfeld, correct I have to be the
16:19
Speaker 1: top three. If those aren't the top three, I believe
16:22
Speaker 1: Breaking I don't know about the West Wing. I think
16:25
Speaker 1: I think Breaking Bad and Seinfeld are definitely two. Um
16:31
Speaker 1: and I guess Scheme of Thrones has to get in
16:33
Speaker 1: there by default. We'll have to figure that out. I mean,
16:37
Speaker 1: obviously there's a recency bias here, but I do believe
16:42
Speaker 1: Seinfeld is definitely that. Does Friends get in there? Does
16:47
Speaker 1: Grade and Altimate get in there? Grays anatomy, this is
16:51
Speaker 1: the beauty. We're gonna let the people vote, So everybody
16:56
Speaker 1: go check the hashtag ranked on Twitter. Darren is going
17:00
Speaker 1: to tweet it out like a madman. We want to
17:02
Speaker 1: hear what you have to say. We'll figure out what
17:05
Speaker 1: the final four are gonna be, and then we will
17:07
Speaker 1: talk about it later in the week, engage with it
17:09
Speaker 1: all week long, den Ravel, thanks for coming on the podcast.
17:16
Speaker 1: Next up on the Favorites, Everybody's favorite at the Action Network,
17:21
Speaker 1: no joke. Uh. If you want to see people scramble,
17:24
Speaker 1: if you want to see meetings stop uh, follow Justin
17:29
Speaker 1: Fan in the Action Network app because we do something
17:32
Speaker 1: called the fan Wagon and whenever Justin makes a bet, uh,
17:36
Speaker 1: we all follow him in the app. We all get
17:37
Speaker 1: an alert and you will immediately see, like our office
17:41
Speaker 1: come to a halt because fan Wagon has been so
17:45
Speaker 1: smart about his bets this year that it's turned into
17:49
Speaker 1: a bit of a phenomenon in our office. Got him
17:52
Speaker 1: on the podcast today because we are down to the
17:55
Speaker 1: Western Conference and Eastern Conference Finals, a lot of activity.
17:59
Speaker 1: I know he's low did on the Golden State Warriors.
18:02
Speaker 1: Justin Fan thanks for coming on, brother, Thanks for having
18:05
Speaker 1: me on. UM excited to talk to The basketball has
18:08
Speaker 1: been really really good lately, to great Game Seven's on Sunday,
18:12
Speaker 1: then the Warriors Rockets Game six. I mean, we've just
18:16
Speaker 1: been spoiled by really good basketball earlyist so UM expecting
18:19
Speaker 1: kind of the same in the in the Conference finals.
18:21
Speaker 1: Then you're kind of looking forward to dive in here. Alright.
18:24
Speaker 1: So I know, you know, you were in town in
18:26
Speaker 1: New York this past week and so we spent a
18:27
Speaker 1: lot of time together. I know that you are loaded
18:31
Speaker 1: on the Warriors to win the title, uh, in multiple ways.
18:35
Speaker 1: So Saturday night, Um, the whenever the game was, it
18:40
Speaker 1: was a Saturday night the Rockets and the Warriors? Was
18:42
Speaker 1: that game six? Is it Friday night? When was that?
18:45
Speaker 1: It was Friday nightday? So when you're watching that game,
18:52
Speaker 1: how are you strategizing? How are you thinking about? All right,
18:54
Speaker 1: I've got the Warriors in the finals. Do I do
18:56
Speaker 1: anything with this game? Do I heade starting? Now? What
18:59
Speaker 1: is your thinking there? Yeah? So the the line was,
19:03
Speaker 1: you know, pretty substantial, So I didn't see much value
19:07
Speaker 1: hedging at that time. So I kind of viewed Game
19:09
Speaker 1: six of a free role and away from me kind
19:12
Speaker 1: of to evaluate what I was going to do in
19:13
Speaker 1: Game seven. If they looked really really bad and if
19:16
Speaker 1: I was really concerned with how they were able to
19:18
Speaker 1: generate their offense and how things looked without k D,
19:22
Speaker 1: then I would hedge a little bit more in Game
19:24
Speaker 1: seven and bet Rockets money line. Um, So I just
19:27
Speaker 1: kind of, you know, you did kind of as a
19:29
Speaker 1: dress rehearsal. Honestly, I was not expecting the Warriors to
19:32
Speaker 1: come away with a win there, So I was pleasantly surprised. Um.
19:36
Speaker 1: But yeah, for me, it was kind of a wait
19:37
Speaker 1: and see approach. I wanted to see how they looked
19:39
Speaker 1: before I made a decision heading into game seven. You know, Uh,
19:44
Speaker 1: you and I think we talked about this. We're doing
19:47
Speaker 1: this new project where we're gonna sort of simulate NBA
19:49
Speaker 1: two game NBA two K games and so, and then
19:53
Speaker 1: put lines on of Shaun Corner, one of the guys
19:55
Speaker 1: on our team, who's a brilliant sort of model and projectionist. Uh,
19:59
Speaker 1: was gonna work with me on this, and so I
20:00
Speaker 1: did it this weekend. I did um the two thousand,
20:04
Speaker 1: fifteen sixteen Warriors versus the current Warriors, with the key
20:09
Speaker 1: difference being Kevin Durant on one team Harrison Barnes on
20:12
Speaker 1: the fifteen sixteen team. Uh. If you had to project, Uh,
20:17
Speaker 1: what do you think the line on that game would be? Wow? Um,
20:25
Speaker 1: I mean Warriors minus this this this Trent group of
20:29
Speaker 1: the Warriors minus three and a half four, um, something
20:33
Speaker 1: like that. Um, that team kind of had a little
20:38
Speaker 1: bit more depth. I believe so, Um, you know, I
20:41
Speaker 1: think it would be pretty competitive, but um, yeah, I
20:44
Speaker 1: think it'd be probably a couple of points. What do
20:45
Speaker 1: you think. I was in the same camp and actually
20:49
Speaker 1: Corner Shaan Corner before he simulated any of the games,
20:53
Speaker 1: handicapped it at the current Warriors at minus three. Then
20:58
Speaker 1: each of us played the games we play. It's six
21:00
Speaker 1: games total. Uh, the current Warriors won by an average
21:05
Speaker 1: of eighteen points per game. They won four of those games,
21:09
Speaker 1: and the fifteen sixteen Warriors won two of the games, um,
21:14
Speaker 1: one by eight, one by I think nineteen. Um, So
21:18
Speaker 1: Corner made the number, made the total to one and
21:21
Speaker 1: a half, and he made the side current Warriors minus
21:25
Speaker 1: seven and a half. Yeah, I mean that's substantial. And
21:30
Speaker 1: I think step was on another level than he was
21:33
Speaker 1: and then he is now. Um, I think that kind
21:35
Speaker 1: of the factors in as well. And like I said,
21:37
Speaker 1: I think they had a little bit more better play
21:39
Speaker 1: from their bench players. Um, the guys like Bogett, Uh
21:43
Speaker 1: you know do that the fifteen sixteen begum was way
21:45
Speaker 1: more effective. Um, they had some a decent bench mob
21:49
Speaker 1: in Barbosa most states. Um, you know slag Deally, I mean,
21:53
Speaker 1: they had some guys there that, um, you know, we're
21:55
Speaker 1: a little better and a little deeper than this current group,
21:57
Speaker 1: but UM yeah, I probably stick to three and a half. Four.
22:02
Speaker 1: That's interesting, all right. So now we got a Western
22:05
Speaker 1: Conference finals of the Warriors and the Blazers. Did you
22:07
Speaker 1: is this? Is this what you saw happening? I thought
22:11
Speaker 1: Denver would win, um game seven. I mean I thought
22:14
Speaker 1: they hold home court. I bet the Blazer second half, um,
22:18
Speaker 1: thinking they'd be able to you know, start hitting a
22:20
Speaker 1: little bit, you know, a couple more shots. Um, dame,
22:23
Speaker 1: would you know not get not say I cold from three?
22:27
Speaker 1: But um, yeah, I definitely didn't expect this. And you know,
22:30
Speaker 1: I'm really excited for this, this uh this matchup here.
22:33
Speaker 1: You know I got step In Clay versus Damon c J.
22:36
Speaker 1: You know you've got step versus brother Steth games from Oakland, So, um,
22:40
Speaker 1: this is gonna be really fun and and you know,
22:42
Speaker 1: excited to see how this one plays up. So what's
22:45
Speaker 1: your prediction? How do you see a plane out? How
22:47
Speaker 1: do you play uh finals like this? I mean I
22:52
Speaker 1: have Warriors in five right now, and I think, um,
22:55
Speaker 1: you know you kind of look at how you know
22:58
Speaker 1: the Warriors are gonna defend in DJ. I don't really
23:01
Speaker 1: have much concern there. Gave and they just came off
23:03
Speaker 1: a series where they had to, you know, keep hard
23:05
Speaker 1: and CB three in check. Um. They've had good success
23:09
Speaker 1: in the regular season defending those guys. Plays defended game
23:12
Speaker 1: held in the thirty seven percent shooting, steps defended CJ.
23:16
Speaker 1: McCollums held them the seven percent shooting. And I think
23:19
Speaker 1: the difference in this series between these two teams, you
23:21
Speaker 1: have these dynamic backcourts, the difference is going to be Draymond. Um.
23:27
Speaker 1: You know, we all know Draymond defensive value. Um. The
23:30
Speaker 1: difference in this series between the two teams is gonna
23:33
Speaker 1: be Um. The Blazers don't don't how the god like
23:36
Speaker 1: out on office and UM, we saw Game six. Man,
23:39
Speaker 1: you run that step Draymond pick and roll. It's really
23:43
Speaker 1: really hard to defend. You're either gonna leave step one
23:46
Speaker 1: on one or you're gonna play four on three with
23:48
Speaker 1: Draymond leading, you know, the charge downhill. I mean it's
23:51
Speaker 1: really really tough. So Um, the Blazers, I just don't
23:56
Speaker 1: see them having enough players around Damon CJ to stick
24:00
Speaker 1: with the Warriors in this one. And you know, Rodney
24:02
Speaker 1: Hood just had a knee injury in Game seven. That's
24:06
Speaker 1: gonna be really big because he was basically the series
24:08
Speaker 1: MVP for them. You know, he was really really important
24:11
Speaker 1: for them. So um, yeah, I I have a hard
24:14
Speaker 1: time seeing um, you know, penis cancer surviying this series,
24:19
Speaker 1: defending to pick and roll with Steph Curry. Um. You know,
24:22
Speaker 1: they have two starters in Alfarukamnu Mohrklets who have been
24:25
Speaker 1: basically unplayable, and they will haunt Game seven basically on
24:29
Speaker 1: a massive outlier game from Evan Turner. So um, it's
24:33
Speaker 1: been a great series, great story for the Blazers so far. Um.
24:38
Speaker 1: You know, they've had deal with death of Paul Allen, John,
24:41
Speaker 1: the Begyn um, the injury, to the use of Nurkic.
24:45
Speaker 1: I mean, this has been a really easy team to
24:47
Speaker 1: root for. But I just don't see them having you know,
24:50
Speaker 1: enough enough talent here to really hang with the Warriors,
24:53
Speaker 1: and you have tiving to rent kind of looming. I
24:55
Speaker 1: mean I think you know, you probably returned to the
24:57
Speaker 1: game three or Game four and that you know, that's
25:00
Speaker 1: kind of a car in the back pocket that the
25:02
Speaker 1: Warriors can play here if they really have to. What
25:05
Speaker 1: do you think of when you hear people say the
25:08
Speaker 1: Warriors are a better team without Kevin Durant. I think
25:15
Speaker 1: it's true to an extent. They play a much better
25:19
Speaker 1: offensive brand of basketball there Stylistically, they're harder to defend.
25:23
Speaker 1: Like I said, that step Draymond pick and roll is
25:26
Speaker 1: really really tough. You're rather choosing not to double step
25:30
Speaker 1: and kind of leaving your defender on island or you're
25:33
Speaker 1: going you know, you're you're giving Draymond the ball downhill.
25:37
Speaker 1: He's playing four and three. You can find play um
25:40
Speaker 1: on the you know, behind the perimeter, or you know,
25:43
Speaker 1: throw an alley you to Andre Gudala or Kamal Mooney. Like,
25:47
Speaker 1: it's really really tough to defend the Warriors um when
25:51
Speaker 1: they kind of play that brand of basketball, and it's
25:53
Speaker 1: kind of picked your poison with Katie, you know, you
25:55
Speaker 1: have to defend them, you know, one on one in isolation.
25:59
Speaker 1: I think the ideal, um, you know, blend here is
26:02
Speaker 1: kind of blend those two together, you know, kind of
26:05
Speaker 1: blend a little bit more pick and roll, a little
26:06
Speaker 1: bit more team basketball with Katie, And you know, I
26:09
Speaker 1: think that's kind of the aspect of they're kind of
26:11
Speaker 1: missing when you know they played Katie a lot of
26:13
Speaker 1: times the offense get bogged down, they'll have to kind
26:16
Speaker 1: of rely on Katie hitting you know, tough contested isolation shots. Um.
26:22
Speaker 1: You know, you know with him, how they've played a
26:24
Speaker 1: lot more of a team brand of basketball where um,
26:28
Speaker 1: you know, it's a lot it's a lot more kind
26:29
Speaker 1: of difficult to you know, to defend. And you know
26:32
Speaker 1: so many guys are involved that, um you know, um,
26:35
Speaker 1: and you kind of put the ball on step hands
26:38
Speaker 1: and it's really tough, you know, to to kind of
26:41
Speaker 1: defend that. All right, let's jump to the other one,
26:45
Speaker 1: um Bucks and Raptors. Wow, that game by Kwi last
26:50
Speaker 1: night was insanity and it sets up a really interesting matchup.
26:55
Speaker 1: And obviously I'm talking about Kauai's last second shot against
26:58
Speaker 1: the Sixers. Oftentimes in these series, I tend to bet
27:03
Speaker 1: on the team that has the best player, because in
27:06
Speaker 1: a seven game series or in a multi game series
27:08
Speaker 1: like this, when you're seeing the same team every night,
27:11
Speaker 1: you get a pretty good read on their offense. You
27:12
Speaker 1: get a pretty good read on their defense, so you
27:15
Speaker 1: get an understanding on how to sort of get in
27:18
Speaker 1: the way. You even saw it like with the Blazers
27:20
Speaker 1: and the Nuggets, Like the way the Nuggets would step
27:23
Speaker 1: out on Dame sort of like three or four feet
27:26
Speaker 1: beyond the arc and the transitions they made and the
27:29
Speaker 1: adjustments they made that allows for adjustments. But most of
27:34
Speaker 1: the best players Janie and Kauai included, I feel like
27:38
Speaker 1: are kind of impervious two adjustments, right, they can rise
27:41
Speaker 1: above adjustments almost literally. How do you handicap a series
27:45
Speaker 1: in which it is almost entirely about these two guys? Yeah,
27:50
Speaker 1: I mean you said you generally bet on the best player.
27:53
Speaker 1: Who do you think the better players in the series?
27:57
Speaker 1: I have really hard time with. Yeah, they're number one,
28:01
Speaker 1: number two in player efficiency rating in the playoffs. I mean,
28:03
Speaker 1: they've been clearly the best two way players um in
28:06
Speaker 1: the playoffs so far. So um. Yeah, I mean I'm
28:10
Speaker 1: really curious to see how how the Raptors are able
28:15
Speaker 1: to defend the bus here. I mean, they're they're a
28:19
Speaker 1: team that can win, you know, with bigger, small lineups.
28:22
Speaker 1: They can win up tempo and transition, or in the
28:24
Speaker 1: half court they'll bludden you in the paint with the
28:26
Speaker 1: honest or hits you with the barag of threes. I mean,
28:29
Speaker 1: this Bucks team is so tough defend and obviously the
28:32
Speaker 1: center pieces that is the honest and commit bodies to them.
28:35
Speaker 1: You lost the paint will find shooters and they have
28:38
Speaker 1: just shooters. Goalre Middleton, Brogden, Merrittage, Connaton Brook, Lopez, Elia Solvay,
28:43
Speaker 1: George Hill. The list goes on. So um for me,
28:47
Speaker 1: I handicapped this being Bucks and five just because I
28:50
Speaker 1: just have a tough time seeing how the Raptors are
28:53
Speaker 1: able to figure this thing out. And um, you know really,
28:58
Speaker 1: you know, we talked about Kauaile obviously, and you know
29:01
Speaker 1: Pascal Siakam has been great too, But one guy who's
29:04
Speaker 1: been really really important for them, um in the first
29:06
Speaker 1: two rounds has been Marcut soul Um. I think he
29:09
Speaker 1: hasn't put the you know, counting sets that people are
29:13
Speaker 1: are expecting, but his defense on Nick Dusevich in in
29:16
Speaker 1: the in the first series and his defense on Joel
29:19
Speaker 1: Embiid in the second round has been phenomenal. I mean,
29:24
Speaker 1: he has played some incredible defense and for him in
29:28
Speaker 1: this series, I have a hard time figuring out where
29:30
Speaker 1: he really fits in. I mean, you have a smaller set, uh,
29:34
Speaker 1: you know, a stretch, your center in brook Lopez, you'd
29:37
Speaker 1: like to live on the perimeter. I'm not sure your
29:39
Speaker 1: sultan really you know, hang with him. So where's Marcus
29:42
Speaker 1: Sulfate in the series? Um, I don't know. And just
29:46
Speaker 1: the Bucks give you so many different looks and can
29:49
Speaker 1: play so many different lives and styles that I just
29:52
Speaker 1: have a hard time seeing that turning our Toronto keeping
29:54
Speaker 1: up here, you know when you put it that way,
29:57
Speaker 1: like I'm thinking about who are the secondary assets? Right,
30:00
Speaker 1: So let's say you double team or even triple team
30:03
Speaker 1: you Honice, he can throw it to Chris Middleton. Who's
30:06
Speaker 1: Kauai going to throw it to Kyle Lowry? Like are
30:09
Speaker 1: you really going to trust Kyle Lowry? You know, yeah,
30:15
Speaker 1: he's you know, he's a little banged up, so like,
30:18
Speaker 1: you know, there's some inconsistency there. And also he hasn't
30:20
Speaker 1: been in the spot where it's like Chris Middleton is
30:22
Speaker 1: an all star, Like I have a lot more faith
30:25
Speaker 1: in Chris Middleton than I do in Siam at this point,
30:29
Speaker 1: even though I do think he's sort of a guy
30:30
Speaker 1: on the rise. Um, I need you to explain to
30:34
Speaker 1: people you have created something in the Fantasy Labs NBA
30:38
Speaker 1: handle that like for insiders, and it crossed a hundred
30:43
Speaker 1: thousand followers this year, and it's pretty amazing accomplishment. UM
30:46
Speaker 1: for insiders of the NBA and inside NBA bettors, it's
30:50
Speaker 1: become indispensable explain to people what you've built. I mean,
30:56
Speaker 1: I think you know, the goal when we create the
30:58
Speaker 1: fantasy that the NBA handle it just basically, if I was,
31:03
Speaker 1: you know, a DFS player, if I was a sports better,
31:06
Speaker 1: what information would I want? And you know, I want
31:10
Speaker 1: to have it fashion than anybody else and have the
31:14
Speaker 1: information be more accurate and more reliable than any other source.
31:19
Speaker 1: And you know, I think that's kind of what we've
31:21
Speaker 1: done with that, you know, with that account, is with
31:23
Speaker 1: that feed is just give um, you know, give betters
31:27
Speaker 1: and DFS players the best information possible. And you know,
31:31
Speaker 1: for me as a better, I think, you know, I
31:33
Speaker 1: try avoid it. I try to avoid getting spreads and
31:36
Speaker 1: total straight up as much as possible. Meaning if there's
31:39
Speaker 1: like no news, um, no movement at all in the line,
31:43
Speaker 1: it's pretty standard. I tried to avoid those situations as possible.
31:47
Speaker 1: For me, I'm constantly looking to find edges and to
31:50
Speaker 1: exploit them. And one of those UM ways. One of
31:54
Speaker 1: those edges that I found obviously is with news and um,
31:57
Speaker 1: for me, you know, on a typical NBA day, I'll
32:00
Speaker 1: read you know, five thousand to ten thousand tweets today
32:03
Speaker 1: from you know, NBA beat reporters and writers. I'll you know,
32:06
Speaker 1: read dirty articles and watch a ton of video from
32:10
Speaker 1: shoot around. So I'm just constantly trying to dive into
32:15
Speaker 1: those um pieces of information to find nuggets and and
32:18
Speaker 1: and kind of leans. If it guy's questionable, well you know,
32:21
Speaker 1: I'll try to you know, gather as much information to
32:24
Speaker 1: have a lean whether he's more probable or doubtful than
32:28
Speaker 1: only kind of use that information, um to bet news
32:31
Speaker 1: and jump onlines before they moved. I mean, I mean,
32:34
Speaker 1: because if you're a better I think what you're trying
32:36
Speaker 1: to do more often than not is just to aim
32:39
Speaker 1: to consistently beat the closing line as much as possible.
32:41
Speaker 1: So um, yeah, for me, that's just become a part
32:45
Speaker 1: of a big part of how I bet games, and um,
32:48
Speaker 1: you know, it's kind of worked out for me pretty
32:50
Speaker 1: well so far. Yeah, what you and J J k
32:54
Speaker 1: A and J person do with the fantasy who abs
32:57
Speaker 1: NBA handle that is exactly why we jump on the
33:00
Speaker 1: fan wagon when you make a bet because we know,
33:03
Speaker 1: like the information is coming in and you're making the
33:07
Speaker 1: move before the number has moved, and uh, we just
33:10
Speaker 1: need to get on that as quickly as possible. Yeah,
33:15
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, most of most of the time
33:17
Speaker 1: I worked out, except for that final day of the
33:19
Speaker 1: season when you have like five Blazers players that are
33:24
Speaker 1: bench players. They played forty eight minutes and you know,
33:27
Speaker 1: I'll beat the closing line by five points and still
33:29
Speaker 1: just get absolutely um taking to the cleaners. So most
33:34
Speaker 1: of the time it works. Sometimes it doesn't, but you know,
33:37
Speaker 1: it's it's really just about you know, the process obviously.
33:39
Speaker 1: So yeah, I think that's you know, big edge that
33:42
Speaker 1: you know we've been we've been looking to exploit and
33:44
Speaker 1: and try to get the most out of alright. Justin
33:47
Speaker 1: fan of the Action Network, lead editor for Fantasy Labs,
33:51
Speaker 1: NBA News, part of the Action Network. Thanks for coming
33:55
Speaker 1: on the podcast, buddy, Thanks for having me a banner
34:00
Speaker 1: epic episode of the Favorites. We conclude with Jason Sobel,
34:05
Speaker 1: Action Network golf writer, the premier golf writer of his generation,
34:11
Speaker 1: calling from his parents house in Long Island, where he
34:14
Speaker 1: is staying while he covers the PGA Championship at Bethpage.
34:20
Speaker 1: When you and I were working together at ESPN, did
34:22
Speaker 1: you ever have to stay at your parents house for
34:24
Speaker 1: an event? Uh, it happened a couple of times, but
34:29
Speaker 1: we just so have happened where I grew up, basically
34:33
Speaker 1: right between Schneekock and beath Page. And so now, for
34:36
Speaker 1: the second time in the last eleven months, I'm staying
34:40
Speaker 1: with my parents. Not always staying with my parents, not
34:42
Speaker 1: always staying with my parents started a golf tournament, but
34:44
Speaker 1: staying with my parents during a major championship, which that's
34:48
Speaker 1: obviously the biggest weeks of the year. So I'm doing
34:51
Speaker 1: that mostly because, Uh, I love the company that I
34:55
Speaker 1: worked with, and I want to save you guys money.
34:56
Speaker 1: I know those expenses are coming straight out of your pocket, Chad,
34:59
Speaker 1: so um, I slew your first class at some caviar
35:02
Speaker 1: in the airport, but I wanted to cut down on expenses.
35:05
Speaker 1: So I'm staying with the folks this week. Only the
35:08
Speaker 1: best for you, so you have earned it. That's awesome.
35:13
Speaker 1: I just have this vision of like your mom calling
35:16
Speaker 1: you while you're in the tent talking to Tiger Woods honey,
35:19
Speaker 1: what are you gonna be home for dinner? It literally happens,
35:23
Speaker 1: and it's not. My parents are great about it, they
35:26
Speaker 1: really are. Um, it's basically like I can crash here
35:29
Speaker 1: and you know, I got a key and whatever I
35:30
Speaker 1: need to do. It's fine. There's no curfew. But there's
35:33
Speaker 1: a little of like, hey, are you gonna be home
35:36
Speaker 1: at seven for dinner? Uh? You know, shul I keep
35:38
Speaker 1: dinner on, Like, what do you want me to do?
35:39
Speaker 1: I just I don't know. That's something usual question I
35:43
Speaker 1: get from the courtyard at Marriott, people who don't seem
35:47
Speaker 1: to mind when I come and go. But it's okay,
35:49
Speaker 1: it's fine. It's all awkward. That's fine. I love the
35:53
Speaker 1: idea of, like you're saying, there's no there's no curfew.
35:57
Speaker 1: It's almost impossible to sort of it's im possible to
36:00
Speaker 1: be like a guy who doesn't live at home, Like
36:05
Speaker 1: you're a parent, you've lived out of the house forever,
36:08
Speaker 1: and yet you like when you go home, it's still
36:10
Speaker 1: kind of like you're fifteen years old, very much. I mean,
36:14
Speaker 1: it's like, at some point this week I will go out.
36:18
Speaker 1: You know. Other writers are staying in Huntington, which about
36:21
Speaker 1: twenty minutes from where I am an ice slip, and
36:23
Speaker 1: I'll go and meet them for a beer or something.
36:25
Speaker 1: And as I'm walking out of the house, my parents
36:27
Speaker 1: will be well, where are you going? And yeah, not
36:31
Speaker 1: more out of curiosity than questioning, but just hey, where
36:34
Speaker 1: are you going? Whore you going out with? I'm gonna
36:35
Speaker 1: go meet up with some of the guys. We're gonna
36:37
Speaker 1: grab beer. All right, We'll be careful driving home. You know,
36:40
Speaker 1: don't have more than one because you know, Okay, Yeah,
36:43
Speaker 1: I'm forty three years old, I've got two kids, I've
36:46
Speaker 1: got a wife, I got a mortgage, I got car payments.
36:49
Speaker 1: I get it. Thank you. But yes, you're you're absolutely
36:52
Speaker 1: right about that, Chantet. There's in some sense it still
36:55
Speaker 1: feels like you're fifteen years old answering questions. I don't
36:59
Speaker 1: even know how we're getting by as a company. All right.
37:01
Speaker 1: So well, so let's talk about what you actually have
37:03
Speaker 1: to do out there this week? Uh Tiger Woods. Yeah, seriously,
37:07
Speaker 1: not just hang out with your Tiger Woods first major
37:12
Speaker 1: since uh, the major of all majors that ended all majors. Um,
37:19
Speaker 1: he's the leader, uh in terms of odds. Go check
37:22
Speaker 1: it out. Action network dot Com. I think he's eight
37:23
Speaker 1: to one right now. Clearly there's no value there. So
37:28
Speaker 1: let's talk about the board. Let's talk about where you're
37:30
Speaker 1: seeing the value. Well, I mean, after what we started
37:34
Speaker 1: gust the last month, are we do for like a
37:37
Speaker 1: Sean mckill wins by seven kind of major championship? I mean,
37:41
Speaker 1: don't don't we all kinds deserve that we don't deserve
37:43
Speaker 1: like a few of these really good ones in the
37:46
Speaker 1: row we sort of deserved, like all right, like I
37:48
Speaker 1: could be let down. We had we had one of
37:51
Speaker 1: the greatest major championships of all time last month. This
37:54
Speaker 1: one can be a letdown. That's you know, we'll deserve
37:57
Speaker 1: nice things every single month. But um, it's great momentum
38:00
Speaker 1: first of all for the new golf schedule, which, as
38:03
Speaker 1: you know now as majors every month from April through July.
38:08
Speaker 1: And UH the coming off the momentum of UH tigers
38:13
Speaker 1: winning the Master's last month and having all as of
38:16
Speaker 1: right now top hundred players UH in the world who
38:19
Speaker 1: are in this field for the first time ever in
38:21
Speaker 1: a major, and being in the biggest media market in
38:24
Speaker 1: the world in New York. UH, you're at Beth Page
38:28
Speaker 1: it's going to be a big deal this week. I
38:30
Speaker 1: think it's going to play for the big hitters. Um
38:33
Speaker 1: best stage isn't necessarily I mean, we always think of
38:36
Speaker 1: it sort of being fierce and being toothy, just sort
38:40
Speaker 1: of having uh, just just a big ballparkt it is,
38:43
Speaker 1: but seventy hundred fifty nine yards, it's not the biggest
38:48
Speaker 1: that we've seen. It's not the longest golf course that
38:50
Speaker 1: we'll see out of the major championships. But um, as
38:54
Speaker 1: Ricky Fowler explained to me a couple of weeks ago,
38:56
Speaker 1: and I was at Quail Hollow, he said, look, it's
38:58
Speaker 1: not a driver way golf course, and so you're gonna
39:02
Speaker 1: be hitting a lot of six irons out of the rough.
39:03
Speaker 1: You're gonna be hitting seven irons. And to me, I'd
39:06
Speaker 1: rather see a guy who's a big hitter and can
39:09
Speaker 1: knock get way down there, even if he's missing fairways,
39:11
Speaker 1: but be able to hit eight irons repeatedly out of
39:14
Speaker 1: the rough instead of six irons. I think that's a
39:16
Speaker 1: huge advantage for the guys who hit the ball a
39:19
Speaker 1: long way. So I've done my ranking, I'm still kind
39:22
Speaker 1: of fine tuning it. I haven't filed yet, but rank
39:24
Speaker 1: the entire hundred and fifty six man field, and uh,
39:27
Speaker 1: you will see a lot of the big hitters, a
39:29
Speaker 1: lot of the big names up near the top of
39:32
Speaker 1: that ranking. I loving you do those rankings. They are
39:35
Speaker 1: a they're massive drivers for traffic and subscriptions, but they're
39:38
Speaker 1: also just like I do like that mercenary that way.
39:41
Speaker 1: But they're also just like so detailed and interesting and
39:45
Speaker 1: like high utility with these great nuggets like you just
39:48
Speaker 1: added about Fowler sort of it's not a driver and
39:51
Speaker 1: wedge golf course, like that's just inside the rope stuff
39:54
Speaker 1: that that has made you you. Um here is the
39:58
Speaker 1: beat that is going around owned in slack right now
40:02
Speaker 1: at the Action Network. And they're one of the reasons
40:05
Speaker 1: I think people like him is because of what you
40:06
Speaker 1: just mentioned. H Bubba Watson at sixty two one right now,
40:13
Speaker 1: big hitter off the tea. Why are we talking about
40:16
Speaker 1: Bubba Watson at six two one is one of our group?
40:18
Speaker 1: That's all right, Well, I've got a couple of different
40:21
Speaker 1: reasons why I really like Bubba this week and one
40:24
Speaker 1: big one why I don't. And so I've been wrestling
40:27
Speaker 1: with Bubba. I think on my list right now I've
40:29
Speaker 1: got him number six or seven going into the week,
40:32
Speaker 1: and like I said, I'm still fine tuning in a
40:34
Speaker 1: little bit. I'm holding off on filing a few more
40:36
Speaker 1: hours because I kind of want to weigh a few
40:39
Speaker 1: things and we'll get a few more things. And but
40:41
Speaker 1: Bubba's up there. Um. I like him obviously the obvious reason.
40:45
Speaker 1: He h's a long way off the TA. We all
40:47
Speaker 1: know that. Secondally, he loves courses where he could have sightlines.
40:51
Speaker 1: He doesn't like wide open golf courses where he doesn't
40:54
Speaker 1: know where to aim. He needs trees in the background,
40:57
Speaker 1: he needs the power line here and there. He needs
40:59
Speaker 1: something to look at and say, I'm gonna hit it
41:01
Speaker 1: at that with a twenty two yard cut, And so
41:05
Speaker 1: that helps him a lot, and I think this plays
41:08
Speaker 1: into his game. Second Certainly, he likes to work the
41:10
Speaker 1: ball both ways. He wants to hit it left to right,
41:13
Speaker 1: he wants hit it right to left. He can do
41:15
Speaker 1: everything except a did straight ball. He doesn't like doing that.
41:18
Speaker 1: So I think Beth Page affords him the ability to
41:23
Speaker 1: work the ball both ways. All those are really good things.
41:25
Speaker 1: He's played well enough this year for his twelve Masters
41:28
Speaker 1: last month that I wouldn't be scared to take him
41:31
Speaker 1: at all. Here's the downside for Bubba. Bubba has gone
41:34
Speaker 1: on record saying he has anxiety. He doesn't like crowds,
41:38
Speaker 1: he doesn't like people, he doesn't like people watching him.
41:41
Speaker 1: This is going to be the most raucous crowds that
41:45
Speaker 1: we've seen, really since the last time there's a major
41:48
Speaker 1: championship at beth Page. These are uh New York crowds.
41:51
Speaker 1: These are public golf course crowds. These are long islanders,
41:55
Speaker 1: These are New Yorkers. They are allowed. And if you
41:58
Speaker 1: let them get in your head just a little bit,
42:00
Speaker 1: and if you show some sign of intimidation, they're gonna
42:03
Speaker 1: jump all over you. They do that Sergio back in
42:06
Speaker 1: two thousand two when he was waggling over the ball
42:09
Speaker 1: and they started counting up the waggles they got inside
42:12
Speaker 1: Colin Montgomery, he's had that year. And I can see
42:15
Speaker 1: Bubba if he gets a little bit flustered having these
42:19
Speaker 1: fans inside his head. And that's the only downside to
42:22
Speaker 1: picking Bubba Watson this week. I need to unpack what
42:26
Speaker 1: you just said for a second. Bubba Watson aiming for
42:31
Speaker 1: having like points of aim, the the detail and specificity
42:37
Speaker 1: with which you can say the degrees to which he
42:39
Speaker 1: will cut a ball going from both directions, and then
42:43
Speaker 1: the level of anxiety and the way you describe New Yorkers.
42:47
Speaker 1: That might be the greatest sixty seconds of golf analysis
42:49
Speaker 1: about the PGA Championship I've ever heard, well, thank you,
42:53
Speaker 1: the week is earlier, though we can get better than that.
42:55
Speaker 1: But no, it's true. I mean, it looks everything points
42:59
Speaker 1: to Bubba Watson having a nice week. I mean you
43:03
Speaker 1: look at the golf course and said, well, of course
43:04
Speaker 1: really works for him. It's of course that should shoot
43:07
Speaker 1: his eye. And for Bubba, more so than almost any
43:09
Speaker 1: other player out there, the course needs to fit his eye.
43:13
Speaker 1: If it doesn't, he's done before he even starts. But
43:15
Speaker 1: for Bubba, he needs to walk out there and say, hey,
43:18
Speaker 1: this looks right to me. And that's when he plays
43:21
Speaker 1: well and and we see it. There are certain golf
43:24
Speaker 1: courses TBC River Highlands in Connecticut, Rivieria out in l A, Augusta, Nashville,
43:30
Speaker 1: of course, where Bubba Watson plays well repeatedly, year after year,
43:34
Speaker 1: and then there are other golf courses that he returns
43:36
Speaker 1: to and never plays well at at all, and there's
43:39
Speaker 1: specific reasons for that. First of all, the course has
43:42
Speaker 1: to suit his eye. But secondly, I have always thought,
43:45
Speaker 1: especially Augusta, where the fans are not on top of you,
43:48
Speaker 1: the fans are not raw becouse, fans are not yelling
43:50
Speaker 1: out at you the entire time. I think that atmosphere,
43:53
Speaker 1: those surroundings are the perfect, the perfect thing for for
43:58
Speaker 1: Bubba Watson Uh to have around him during a golf
44:01
Speaker 1: tournament because they're not yelling Baba booie, they're not yelling
44:05
Speaker 1: uh mashed potatoes in your backswing, And I think it
44:09
Speaker 1: doesn't affect him as much. Um, you know, so I
44:11
Speaker 1: think that's huge for him. Um. I would look at
44:13
Speaker 1: a few other players Jason Day, I really like this
44:16
Speaker 1: week and the course should suit him. Um. But I
44:19
Speaker 1: know a lot of people who have had on Jason
44:21
Speaker 1: Day and who have taken Jason Day in dfs and
44:24
Speaker 1: have UH have gotten in their opinions screwed over by
44:28
Speaker 1: the fact that he's withdrawn. He did that the Arnold
44:31
Speaker 1: Palmer Invitational look like he might do that the Masters,
44:34
Speaker 1: although he wound up finishing in fifth place even after
44:37
Speaker 1: Uh lying on the ground stretching out in the second hall.
44:39
Speaker 1: Well you look at it and you say, Okay, there's
44:42
Speaker 1: a good course for Jason Day. He looks at the
44:43
Speaker 1: models that we have on Fantasy Labs. They really like
44:46
Speaker 1: Jason Day. He's up there and everything the stats make sense,
44:49
Speaker 1: and yet it's about fifty degrees out here, which first
44:52
Speaker 1: of all, chat, I don't know how you guys live
44:53
Speaker 1: in these conditions. I live in Connecticut for fifteen years, obviously,
44:57
Speaker 1: like I said, grew up on Long Island. I live
44:59
Speaker 1: in Orland. Know now, I don't know. I don't go
45:01
Speaker 1: outside and under seventies, So I don't know how you
45:03
Speaker 1: guys live in this. Jason Day is not going to
45:05
Speaker 1: like this when he walks outside and tries to swing
45:08
Speaker 1: on the first see at best page black, and his
45:10
Speaker 1: back is not really activated to use the term the
45:13
Speaker 1: Tigers uses, so uh, if it's cold out and he's
45:16
Speaker 1: trying to swing, it's gonna hurt him a little bit.
45:18
Speaker 1: So there are other factors. My My main point of
45:21
Speaker 1: all this being there are other factors. We can look
45:23
Speaker 1: at models, we can look at how the course fits
45:25
Speaker 1: certain players, but you have to look pass out a
45:28
Speaker 1: little bit some of these intangibles because they're going to
45:31
Speaker 1: be into play. They're gonna come into play this week.
45:34
Speaker 1: Jason Sobel, golf writer for the Action Network. Really golf
45:40
Speaker 1: everything for the Action Network. You're like a golf extraordinaire
45:43
Speaker 1: um clearly the best writer of your generation when it
45:46
Speaker 1: comes to golf, and also maybe your mom's favorite golf writer,
45:52
Speaker 1: I hope. So I will tell you a very true story.
45:56
Speaker 1: So my grandmother, who is now a hundred years old,
45:59
Speaker 1: will And you know, she's been doing this since I've
46:02
Speaker 1: started liking golf. She's been a golf fan for her
46:04
Speaker 1: entire life. And she would cut out articles from the
46:08
Speaker 1: newspaper and send them to me when I first started
46:10
Speaker 1: and Jock, Okay, well that's nice. I guess she's just
46:13
Speaker 1: trying to show me kind of what's out there. And
46:15
Speaker 1: after a while she would cut have these articles from
46:17
Speaker 1: the newspaper, from like the Palm Beach Post she was
46:19
Speaker 1: down in in South Florida, and from you know, the
46:22
Speaker 1: Miami Herald. She cut out these articles. I'm so they're going.
46:25
Speaker 1: I was sitting next to the guy who wrote that,
46:28
Speaker 1: and I asked the actual question to listen to the
46:30
Speaker 1: quote that he used in second paragraph. So I'm not sure,
46:34
Speaker 1: you know, Grandma I'm not sure what you're sending me,
46:35
Speaker 1: but you should probably go on the computer and look
46:38
Speaker 1: at what I wrote, because it's better than what that
46:40
Speaker 1: guy wrote. But anyway, yes, so you know, not necessarily
46:44
Speaker 1: the favorite golf writer of everyone in the family, I guess,
46:47
Speaker 1: but I do think my mom likes some of my stuff.
46:49
Speaker 1: Subtle motivation. Thank you Jason Sobel for coming on the
46:53
Speaker 1: Favorite Podcast. Talk to you later, have a good week.
46:57
Speaker 1: I have to appreciate this has been an bick episode
47:01
Speaker 1: of the Favorites. Thanks to Revel, thanks to Justin Fan,
47:04
Speaker 1: thanks to Jason Sobol Reminder download from Apple Podcast rate review,
47:09
Speaker 1: Subscribe downloaded from radio dot com Slash the Action Network.
47:14
Speaker 1: Until next time, Love you