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The broader implications of the attack on Iran | Jerm Warfare · UK Column Radio

0:30
Speaker 1: My name is Jim.
0:31
Speaker 2: This is Germ Warfare, the Battle of Ideas.
0:35
Speaker 3: Last week we had an incredibly timely conversation. We asked
0:40
Speaker 3: the question what would happen if the US attacked Iran?
0:44
Speaker 3: And that happened I think within forty eight hours after
0:47
Speaker 3: we aired that recording. Now, the counter response is fairly significant.
0:56
Speaker 3: What that shows is that attacking I Run was a
0:58
Speaker 3: stupid idea.
1:01
Speaker 4: Well, I mean enough people were saying it was a
1:04
Speaker 4: stupid idea for months before it actually happened. I mean,
1:08
Speaker 4: it was quite amazing that had happened within forty eight
1:12
Speaker 4: hours of that conversation. But on the other hand, you know,
1:16
Speaker 4: we and many others have been talking about the fact
1:18
Speaker 4: that this was going to happen for you know, several
1:22
Speaker 4: weeks before. There was only a question of when it
1:24
Speaker 4: was going to happen. Iran's been on the target list
1:27
Speaker 4: for decades, so it was inevitable that it was going
1:31
Speaker 4: to happen. It's fascinating to me that it's Trump that
1:34
Speaker 4: has done it. It's fascinating to me how they are
1:36
Speaker 4: trying to justify it in terms of, well, we had
1:40
Speaker 4: to do it because Israel was going to do it,
1:42
Speaker 4: and we knew that if Israel did it, then we
1:43
Speaker 4: were going to get we were going to be on
1:45
Speaker 4: the receiving end of some of what Iran did, so
1:47
Speaker 4: we got in there first.
1:49
Speaker 5: And also.
1:51
Speaker 4: Now the whole Christian Zionism, openly Christian Zionist rhetoric that's
1:56
Speaker 4: going apparently doing the runs of the US military and
2:00
Speaker 4: certainly coming out of the mouth of Hexath. So you know,
2:04
Speaker 4: we are really at a critical point because this doesn't
2:10
Speaker 4: look like I mean, it doesn't look like the United States.
2:12
Speaker 4: And the other thing, of course, that the other narrative
2:15
Speaker 4: that's already being set up, as I mentioned on Wednesday's
2:18
Speaker 4: news programmer or an extra I think it's maybe an
2:20
Speaker 4: extra was on Tuesday night Channel four News had somebody
2:24
Speaker 4: on can't remember his name who was pushing the idea
2:29
Speaker 4: that in taking this action, Trump is actually preventing a war.
2:33
Speaker 4: So undoubtedly should this conclude, so sooner rather than later,
2:40
Speaker 4: we are going to hear rhetoric from Trump having stopped
2:44
Speaker 4: nine and a half wars instead of eightna half. It's
2:48
Speaker 4: just incredible how the insanity that we're witnessing in front
2:51
Speaker 4: of our eyes at the moment. But I don't see
2:54
Speaker 4: that this is going to end anytime soon. And then
2:57
Speaker 4: we've got the question Charles can talk a little bit
3:00
Speaker 4: about this, maybe about you know, who has what weapons,
3:04
Speaker 4: because of course the the US claims to have unlimited
3:09
Speaker 4: supplies of missiles and other stuff other kit. I don't
3:15
Speaker 4: think anybody with you know, anybody that's been paying attention
3:19
Speaker 4: believes a word of that, because so much of it
3:21
Speaker 4: has already gone to Ukraine and uh.
3:24
Speaker 5: And so on.
3:26
Speaker 4: Then then there's the question of what Iran has. And
3:29
Speaker 4: Iran obviously is claiming that it has lots, and the
3:32
Speaker 4: West is claiming that it has almost nothing, and they're
3:35
Speaker 4: trying to build a narrative at the moment that that
3:39
Speaker 4: that initially there was this massive response from from Iran,
3:42
Speaker 4: but that has tilled off in the last few days,
3:44
Speaker 4: so that they were initially launching hundreds of missiles, neither
3:49
Speaker 4: only launching tens of missiles. Therefore they must be running
3:52
Speaker 4: out and and so it goes on, and it is
3:56
Speaker 4: absolutely already a massive propaganda extra, never mind what's actually
4:01
Speaker 4: happening to the poor people that are on the receiving
4:04
Speaker 4: end of whatever side is pushing whatever, and the school
4:09
Speaker 4: is hit. That was a disgrace that that was an
4:13
Speaker 4: absolute disgrace and no serious acknowledgment of regret on on
4:18
Speaker 4: the US side. And in fact, you know, as Vanessa
4:23
Speaker 4: was showing on the UK column News program on Wednesday,
4:26
Speaker 4: the clip of Trump really, you know, on beginning is
4:31
Speaker 4: his little speech by saying how much he prayed for
4:36
Speaker 4: the prayed for the fallen.
4:39
Speaker 5: And the wounded.
4:41
Speaker 4: But you know this, this this stuff happens, you know,
4:44
Speaker 4: so so in other words, demonstrating a complete lack of
4:47
Speaker 4: of empathy with anybody that's really been on the receiving
4:53
Speaker 4: end of this.
4:56
Speaker 6: Yes, well, I mean to go back to the point
4:59
Speaker 6: about it being stupid. Let's face it, attacking anywhere at
5:02
Speaker 6: any point is stupid, and stupid is of course not
5:06
Speaker 6: really quite the right word, because it's utterly inhuman. And
5:11
Speaker 6: what I would like to get to is the bit
5:13
Speaker 6: that the United States rhetoric glosses over completely, which Mike
5:19
Speaker 6: has just alluded to because of the atrocious way in
5:22
Speaker 6: which Trump just dismissed the lives that would be lost.
5:26
Speaker 6: And of course, you know, by really only talking about
5:29
Speaker 6: American lives, we get straight to the heart of it,
5:31
Speaker 6: which is that there is never any acknowledgment that killing
5:34
Speaker 6: people in another country is just not okay. There's still
5:37
Speaker 6: people and I, you know, I don't want to stop
5:43
Speaker 6: talking about this. I think I referenced, if not on
5:46
Speaker 6: this podcast, then another UK column broadcast. But I recently
5:53
Speaker 6: read a first hand account of life in the trenches
5:56
Speaker 6: in the First World War and it was not only
6:00
Speaker 6: extremely poignant and horrific to read, but it brought out
6:05
Speaker 6: several very very important philosophical points and it was really
6:12
Speaker 6: the passage of time in this instance written by The
6:15
Speaker 6: specific book I'm talking about is called Tommy at Gomcore,
6:18
Speaker 6: written by Thomas Higgins, and in fact, I know I've
6:21
Speaker 6: definitely spoken about it on this banter session before. But
6:25
Speaker 6: the point, one of the very important points made is
6:30
Speaker 6: the realization that they were just killing german Men because
6:35
Speaker 6: they were German. There was no other qualifying criterion for
6:42
Speaker 6: killing these people. And that is exactly what's happening now,
6:46
Speaker 6: and that is what confronts any service man or woman
6:52
Speaker 6: in this theater of conflict, whether they're actively engaged or
6:55
Speaker 6: on the periphery. They are now going to be actively
6:58
Speaker 6: involved in the in the process of killing Iranians simply
7:03
Speaker 6: because they're Iranian. And they are absolutely not people that
7:08
Speaker 6: have ever done anything to them despite the narrative.
7:12
Speaker 1: So the idea that there could ever be.
7:15
Speaker 6: A just conflict, I think is very very stretched. And
7:19
Speaker 6: I don't just before we get accused of sort of
7:21
Speaker 6: double standards, I would, you know, bring the Russia Ukraine
7:28
Speaker 6: situation in here, because of course that is problematic, because
7:32
Speaker 6: one can see absolutely with the way in which NATO
7:37
Speaker 6: and the European Union and all the various sort of
7:41
Speaker 6: Western power bases have acted against Vladimir Putin in particular
7:48
Speaker 6: and the Russian state, the Russian identity, and of course
7:52
Speaker 6: there's a very very complex history to that. However, is
7:55
Speaker 6: it is it really ever the right thing to begin
8:00
Speaker 6: an engagement that you know is going to result in
8:02
Speaker 6: the deaths of if not hundreds, then thousands of people,
8:06
Speaker 6: And you know, look at what's happened in Russia and Ukraine.
8:10
Speaker 6: I mean, the whole thing is completely tragic, and having
8:14
Speaker 6: having spent time working in Ukraine years ago, it's it
8:19
Speaker 6: is a it's a dreadful, dreadful thing. And I think
8:21
Speaker 6: we also get poisoned by slightly by by sort of
8:25
Speaker 6: considering that, you know, what Zelenski is doing is appalling
8:29
Speaker 6: and that he's corrupt and they will corrupt and whatever.
8:31
Speaker 6: But still, I mean that may well be the case,
8:34
Speaker 6: but that that doesn't in any way make any of
8:37
Speaker 6: it any better.
8:38
Speaker 1: It is.
8:38
Speaker 6: It is awful, awful slaughter, and it's people like Trump
8:42
Speaker 6: and Hexif who stand up there. Okay, Hexith has put
8:45
Speaker 6: himself in harm's way in a previous life, but is
8:48
Speaker 6: certainly not going to do so now. So the idea
8:50
Speaker 6: that this is in any way just and this idea
8:55
Speaker 6: of invoking you know, godliness and all that kind of
8:59
Speaker 6: thing is absolutely dreadful and cynical that the other thing. Sorry,
9:04
Speaker 6: just on, whilst we're on contradictions and ironies, I mean,
9:08
Speaker 6: isn't it amazing there are that there is? There are
9:10
Speaker 6: many many accounts of exactly like you say, Mike, of
9:15
Speaker 6: the United States having a you know, knackered supply line
9:21
Speaker 6: where munitions are concerned, and the fact that they may run.
9:24
Speaker 6: I mean, there's one feels there's no smoke with that
9:26
Speaker 6: fire here. And yet the Iranians are openly declaring that
9:33
Speaker 6: they are very well armed, very well supplied, that they're
9:36
Speaker 6: very well prepared, which gets completely dismissed. And yet the
9:41
Speaker 6: idea that they have nuclear weapons, despite the utter absence
9:46
Speaker 6: of evidence, is a story that gets promulgated for forever
9:49
Speaker 6: and ever. So isn't it just fascinating how at times
9:53
Speaker 6: like this you know absolutely all bets are off. I mean,
9:57
Speaker 6: the truth just gets it is absolutely the first count
10:00
Speaker 6: and the whole situation is one gigantic manipulation from from there,
10:07
Speaker 6: and of course has to be because if they're going
10:10
Speaker 6: to convince personnel, particularly of the United States Armed Forces,
10:14
Speaker 6: to to sign up and join in, they've got to
10:18
Speaker 6: make it sound good.
10:20
Speaker 3: But I think it's also fair to say that in
10:24
Speaker 3: a war there is the fog of the fog of propaganda,
10:27
Speaker 3: and that comes also from the Uranian side.
10:32
Speaker 4: I think in these circumstances it's very hard to ever
10:35
Speaker 4: know exactly what the truth is.
10:36
Speaker 5: But of course not.
10:37
Speaker 4: I mean, of course, if you've got two protagonists, they
10:40
Speaker 4: are going to put the best fists on whatever situation
10:44
Speaker 4: they find themselves in, because that is part and parcel
10:46
Speaker 4: of the of the battle. They've got to there's a
10:50
Speaker 4: psychological aspect any warfare, and you've got to convince the
10:54
Speaker 4: enemy that you've that you're serious. But in Iran's case,
11:00
Speaker 4: you know, it is clear that they have a significant
11:04
Speaker 4: capability that the other targets of regime change that the
11:08
Speaker 4: West has attacked in previous conflicts never had. I mean,
11:14
Speaker 4: you know, Iran has hypersonic weapons. Iran has a drone
11:18
Speaker 4: capability that it developed in its country. It didn't buy
11:21
Speaker 4: it from somewhere else. And in fact, it's sold its
11:24
Speaker 4: drone design to Russia, and Russia's using those drones very
11:29
Speaker 4: successfully in Ukraine. So, you know, the United States, you
11:34
Speaker 4: began this by suggesting that this was a stupid thing
11:37
Speaker 4: to do. It's stupid on many many levels. But it
11:40
Speaker 4: was stupid because you know, they are taking on a
11:45
Speaker 4: country which which is absolutely capable of defending itself and
11:52
Speaker 4: in ways that the other countries were not. And so
11:56
Speaker 4: this is not going to be.
11:58
Speaker 5: Iraq. It's it simply isn't.
12:00
Speaker 4: So we have to the bit the bigger, the bigger
12:05
Speaker 4: problem is, you know, if we have a country like
12:08
Speaker 4: the United States with a trillion plus dollars a year
12:11
Speaker 4: defense budget, we don't you know, even with that, they
12:15
Speaker 4: they they are struggling to supply themselves and so on.
12:18
Speaker 4: But you know that's the skill of their defense budget.
12:21
Speaker 4: And they're now using language like armageddon and and you know,
12:26
Speaker 4: envisioning the final conflict happening at this point, that it
12:30
Speaker 4: is clear that that that this is not just about Iran,
12:33
Speaker 4: that in their minds, this is absolutely about expanding this
12:37
Speaker 4: conflict regionally and turning this into something much bigger than
12:41
Speaker 4: just simply the regime change of a single country.
12:45
Speaker 5: And we should all be concerned about that.
12:47
Speaker 4: We should we should all be pushing back very hard
12:50
Speaker 4: against that that possibility.
12:54
Speaker 6: I mean in terms of sorry, well it's just just sorry,
12:58
Speaker 6: just to go something really deal with it directly, But
13:01
Speaker 6: to talk about the stupidity of it, yes, I mean,
13:03
Speaker 6: if we're to look at the strategic and the tactical picture,
13:08
Speaker 6: then yes, very stupid.
13:10
Speaker 1: And I think.
13:13
Speaker 6: As part of a wider question, one really has to
13:19
Speaker 6: examine the reputational damage that America is going to do
13:24
Speaker 6: to itself.
13:26
Speaker 1: I know this seems like, you know, I was sort
13:28
Speaker 1: of here we go.
13:29
Speaker 6: Again, and they've always somehow come out of it in
13:33
Speaker 6: fairly good shape. The rest of the world still wants
13:35
Speaker 6: to deal with them, and this, that and the other.
13:38
Speaker 6: I think we've talked about the Donald Trump effect a
13:43
Speaker 6: lot obviously on these banter sessions, but I think that
13:48
Speaker 6: is just an extra dimension. On Wednesday's news program, I
13:53
Speaker 6: played the clip of him just having a pop at
13:56
Speaker 6: anybody that wasn't going to support United States action, and
14:00
Speaker 6: he had to go at Keir Starmer, describing him as
14:03
Speaker 6: not being Winston Churchill and exactly, and that's what I
14:08
Speaker 6: was going to say.
14:08
Speaker 1: And so Spain has just has just sort of had
14:11
Speaker 1: the hep ho.
14:11
Speaker 6: That the point, and this is something that Douglas McGregor
14:16
Speaker 6: has I think been particularly clear on and.
14:22
Speaker 1: Well referenced.
14:24
Speaker 6: He makes the point that, you know, there's only so
14:26
Speaker 6: many times that the United States can do this, and
14:29
Speaker 6: particularly when you've got the instability in an apparent madness
14:33
Speaker 6: of the of the American regime as compared with the
14:37
Speaker 6: stability offered by China or Russia or India or you know,
14:42
Speaker 6: there are many other places to look now in terms
14:44
Speaker 6: of allegiances and economic ties.
14:48
Speaker 1: And so to to sort of.
14:53
Speaker 6: Nail your colors to the to the mast of Israel
14:57
Speaker 6: and to undertake an action like this, it is on
15:01
Speaker 6: a military level, I would say, exactly like you suggest,
15:05
Speaker 6: absurdly stupid, But on a national level, I mean that
15:12
Speaker 6: the repercussions could and probably should be dire, Maybe not
15:17
Speaker 6: in the immediate term, but in the way that America
15:21
Speaker 6: is going to be perceived as a dwindling empire I
15:25
Speaker 6: think is absolutely you know, sort of playing itself out now.
15:32
Speaker 6: But you know, it remains to be seen exactly how
15:35
Speaker 6: how countries will respond to out, you know, Spain for example.
15:38
Speaker 1: I mean, what are they going to do.
15:40
Speaker 6: Are they going to go back sort of cap in
15:43
Speaker 6: hand and say, oh, you know, don't worry, we really
15:45
Speaker 6: do want to have something to do with you knowing
15:49
Speaker 6: that the wind could change direction again tomorrow multiple times
15:54
Speaker 6: or not. Are they going to think, well, perhaps it
15:56
Speaker 6: might be time to move on. You know, maybe America
15:59
Speaker 6: isn't who they really say they are. Maybe they're maybe
16:02
Speaker 6: they're not all that great. And especially when they you know,
16:06
Speaker 6: did they put out all this brash chat about about
16:09
Speaker 6: being able to destroy, you know, like they always do.
16:13
Speaker 6: And it's the same thing with Mission Accomplished back in
16:15
Speaker 6: two thousand and three. I mean, this idea that their
16:18
Speaker 6: military might is absolutely sort of impenetrable and whatnot, and
16:22
Speaker 6: of course they're going to get found out and where
16:25
Speaker 6: will that take them and where will that take the
16:27
Speaker 6: rest of the world.
16:28
Speaker 3: More interestingly, I was going to say earlier with regards
16:32
Speaker 3: to navigating the fog of propaganda. I don't think it's
16:38
Speaker 3: fair to say that there is equal amounts of propaganda
16:42
Speaker 3: from both science because the US has you know, attacked
16:48
Speaker 3: Iran and Iran is defending itself, and so the way
16:52
Speaker 3: I would see it, and this is just a theory,
16:56
Speaker 3: but I'm more likely to put more faith in what's
17:02
Speaker 3: coming out of Iran then what's coming out of the
17:04
Speaker 3: US in this instance, because they are not the aggressor.
17:09
Speaker 5: Uhh, up up to a point.
17:11
Speaker 4: I mean, the point I would make here is, of course,
17:14
Speaker 4: the propaganda machine that the US, the UK, and the
17:18
Speaker 4: EU has is so much more capable and advanced. It's
17:26
Speaker 4: it's it's got massive tech companies spawned in the United States,
17:32
Speaker 4: spawned in Israel absolutely behind it. We're seeing so much
17:37
Speaker 4: content being automatically generated by bots. So from that point
17:43
Speaker 4: of view, yes, we've but but you know, at the
17:49
Speaker 4: same time, we've got to recognize that, as you say,
17:51
Speaker 4: Iran isn't it is a country now under attack.
17:54
Speaker 5: It didn't take the first step.
17:56
Speaker 4: On this, and it has to do what it thinks
18:01
Speaker 4: is the right thing on every front. And so it's
18:04
Speaker 4: going to use whatever capabilities. It has to present a
18:10
Speaker 4: public face, which is which is a positive one, you know,
18:15
Speaker 4: for its people and also for to give the idea
18:18
Speaker 4: to the other side that that they're as strong as now.
18:21
Speaker 4: I don't know, because none of us can know exactly
18:24
Speaker 4: what is sitting underground in Iran. The only people that
18:29
Speaker 4: know that are the people that are able to go
18:32
Speaker 4: there and see for themselves. So we've got to but
18:35
Speaker 4: we've just got to appreciate the world where we're living
18:38
Speaker 4: in and try to decipher what we're seeing as best
18:42
Speaker 4: we can.
18:43
Speaker 3: I think my favorite, though, is the the offer from
18:48
Speaker 3: North Korea saying that it will give it will give
18:52
Speaker 3: Iran rockets that will wipe out Israel.
19:00
Speaker 4: This doesn't surprise you know, North Korea actially, but but
19:04
Speaker 4: I mean, is it any surprise North Korea has demonstrated
19:09
Speaker 4: a launch capability and.
19:13
Speaker 5: At great cost to its people.
19:15
Speaker 4: I mean, I'm not going to underestimate the effect that
19:18
Speaker 4: you know, the fact that they are putting so much
19:20
Speaker 4: resource into into that capability means of course other people
19:24
Speaker 4: are are suffering. But the point is that every time
19:29
Speaker 4: that the rhetoric has come out of you know, the
19:32
Speaker 4: UK or the US on Iran, North Korea's name is
19:36
Speaker 4: never too far behind, so it's it's hardly surprising that
19:38
Speaker 4: they are prepared to make that kind of offer.
19:43
Speaker 2: What do you okay?
19:44
Speaker 3: I mean, I was obviously being facetious, but I mean,
19:46
Speaker 3: do you think North Korea is just making up words
19:50
Speaker 3: or do you think they legit have what they say
19:54
Speaker 3: they have?
19:56
Speaker 5: Jeremy we Britain.
19:57
Speaker 4: Has now made two attempts the test it's tried and
20:02
Speaker 4: nuclear missile delivery system, so it's sent a submarine off
20:06
Speaker 4: and it's attempted to test far the rockets that that
20:10
Speaker 4: are supposed to deliver tried nuclear warheads to the destination
20:13
Speaker 4: and both cases, both occasions, those tests failed. North Korea
20:18
Speaker 4: is faring off. I mean, we hear it all the time.
20:20
Speaker 4: It's it's fully propagandized in the Western media. North Korea
20:24
Speaker 4: has has fired yet another ballistic missile and and uh,
20:28
Speaker 4: you know it landed somewhere in the Pacific and so on.
20:31
Speaker 5: So they have demonstrated that they are well down the road.
20:35
Speaker 4: Of developing a capability and you know there they their
20:41
Speaker 4: test firings don't seem to be failing.
20:46
Speaker 3: Well then, I mean, obviously that could be concerning for
20:49
Speaker 3: the future.
20:52
Speaker 4: Who for it's only concerning for us because North Korea
20:56
Speaker 4: isn't isn't showing any signs of wanting to to enter
21:01
Speaker 4: into conflict with with anybody else. It is clearly demonstrating
21:06
Speaker 4: a capability with a view to trying to persuade the
21:09
Speaker 4: West to leave it alone. And you know, this is
21:13
Speaker 4: what of our affairs, is what they're saying effectively there.
21:17
Speaker 3: This is what Vanessa said on My on My show
21:20
Speaker 3: this week and Starry Sedeki from from Iran. Both of
21:24
Speaker 3: them said that Iran is not causing any chaos with
21:29
Speaker 3: its neighbors, It's not attacking anybody. It just wants to
21:33
Speaker 3: remain independent.
21:34
Speaker 1: Mm hmm.
21:37
Speaker 6: Yeah, it's it's sort of it's like the the macro
21:42
Speaker 6: version of of not wanting to to have a COVID jab.
21:48
Speaker 1: You know, you just you just want to be left alone.
21:51
Speaker 6: But no, there has to be continued pressure and pressure
21:57
Speaker 6: and pressure, and then eventually it snaps and and you
22:01
Speaker 6: get clobbered.
22:03
Speaker 1: It's completely extraordinary.
22:05
Speaker 6: And of course you know we know this, and I
22:07
Speaker 6: dare say most people are very well versed with the statistics,
22:11
Speaker 6: and of course I can't give accurate ones. But all
22:13
Speaker 6: these countries that are accused of being aggressors or of
22:19
Speaker 6: presenting a threat, and this, that and the other. The
22:24
Speaker 6: military engagements that they've been involved with compared with those
22:29
Speaker 6: that the United States has taken on over the last
22:32
Speaker 6: hundred years, I mean, there's there is no comparison. So
22:36
Speaker 6: it is incredible, really that here we are in twenty
22:38
Speaker 6: twenty six and anyone still believes what comes out of
22:42
Speaker 6: the propaganda machines of the Western nations who are and
22:47
Speaker 6: always have been the aggressors. Now I'm not saying that
22:50
Speaker 6: there has been no you know that no one else
22:52
Speaker 6: has ever been involved in any of this, but I mean, specifically,
22:56
Speaker 6: like has just been referenced, whether it's North Korea or
23:00
Speaker 6: Iran or Russia, they all anything that they have been
23:06
Speaker 6: involved in pales into insignificance compared with in particular the Americans.
23:12
Speaker 6: So it is astonishing what people will digest and believe.
23:18
Speaker 6: But of course, the moment something like this happens, you know,
23:21
Speaker 6: you listen to Trump and Hexath in particular, and if
23:25
Speaker 6: you hadn't been paying attention to any of it, you'd think, wow, okay,
23:29
Speaker 6: this is this is amazing. Yeah, these guys they really
23:31
Speaker 6: you know, they really need to do this, and of
23:33
Speaker 6: course social media is a wash with people you know, thanking,
23:38
Speaker 6: thanking President Trump. I mean, you know, just the sort
23:41
Speaker 6: of this combined action with Israel I believe should be
23:47
Speaker 6: enough to make people feel very, very uncomfortable. But of course,
23:50
Speaker 6: because of the way things have been manipulated over the
23:54
Speaker 6: last two and a half years, it's easy to see
23:56
Speaker 6: how people were primed for exactly this scenario in which
23:59
Speaker 6: they would support not just United States action, but United
24:01
Speaker 6: States action at the behest of and in conjunction with Israel.
24:06
Speaker 6: It's perfectly astonishing. I think if you'd ask somebody whether
24:09
Speaker 6: such a thing would be acceptable five years ago, I
24:12
Speaker 6: don't think people would have gone for it.
24:15
Speaker 3: I asked, was it was it Vanessa or was it story?
24:20
Speaker 3: I forget now, but I asked one of them, whose
24:23
Speaker 3: war is it? And I think it was Vanessa and
24:26
Speaker 3: she said the Zionists. And I think that's a good
24:31
Speaker 3: answer because that incorporates both the US and Israel in this,
24:35
Speaker 3: because it's hard to know who's actually driving it. If
24:39
Speaker 3: you're going to if you want to only look at countries.
24:43
Speaker 6: Well, absolutely, and I think specifically with Vanessa as surely
24:47
Speaker 6: I haven't listened to all of that, that one, but
24:52
Speaker 6: not just those countries, but also the wider the region
24:56
Speaker 6: and you know, the Gulf States in particular. She was
24:58
Speaker 6: talking about the way the way in which the tap
25:00
Speaker 6: strip of the Middle East sort of why it does
25:03
Speaker 6: or does not support the structured Yeah. Absolutely, but with
25:07
Speaker 6: specific regard to Israeli intentions or at least the intention
25:11
Speaker 6: of the State of Israel.
25:13
Speaker 1: Yes, absolutely.
25:17
Speaker 3: That fracturing of the Arab world is actually I think
25:21
Speaker 3: pivotal to understanding why Run is being attacked, because I mean,
25:26
Speaker 3: if you just go online or you just talk to
25:28
Speaker 3: people around you, they all say the same thing. That's
25:31
Speaker 3: totalitarian Islamist regime. It's you know, that's that's the deflection,
25:36
Speaker 3: that's the the very low hanging fruit argument. But the real,
25:41
Speaker 3: the real agenda is a lot deeper. It has to
25:45
Speaker 3: do with greater Israel. It has to do with the
25:48
Speaker 3: fracturing of quote unquote the Middle East. It's not about
25:55
Speaker 3: what what the average person thinks. And this is part
25:59
Speaker 3: of the difficulty of communicating this kind of of talking point.
26:06
Speaker 5: I think.
26:11
Speaker 4: They first of all, I would question, you know, the
26:17
Speaker 4: excuse that that anybody that that says that Iran is
26:21
Speaker 4: a you know, an Islamist dictatorship. If Iran is an
26:25
Speaker 4: Islamist dictatorship, that's Iran's problem.
26:28
Speaker 5: Why is it?
26:28
Speaker 4: Why is it our problem? Why do we feel that
26:30
Speaker 4: we need to intervene on these things? How would we
26:34
Speaker 4: feel if, if you know, Iran was intervening on in
26:41
Speaker 4: the UK, where there is a big opposition to not
26:44
Speaker 4: just the Labor Party but to all political parties at
26:46
Speaker 4: the moment, How do we feel if if if Iran
26:50
Speaker 4: was bombing London to bring about regime change, This is
26:54
Speaker 4: our whatever's going on in the UK is our problem
26:57
Speaker 4: to deal with internally. And and it's pretty arrogant of
27:02
Speaker 4: any even if we assumed that that was what was
27:05
Speaker 4: going on here, that that that that we were riding
27:08
Speaker 4: to the rescue of of the oppressed and in a
27:11
Speaker 4: dictatorship in another country, That that's we don't live there
27:15
Speaker 4: and we have no way of actually knowing what it's
27:17
Speaker 4: like to live there.
27:20
Speaker 5: On the bigger question though, uh completely lost my train
27:28
Speaker 5: of thought on that one, But uh.
27:30
Speaker 3: Well, I was making the point that that the deeper
27:34
Speaker 3: agenda is the fracturing of the Arab world in favor
27:38
Speaker 3: of of Israeli expansion.
27:42
Speaker 4: Yeah, but I mean right, So so the point I
27:44
Speaker 4: was going to make is that you know, there's no
27:46
Speaker 4: there's no one answer to this because because yes, the
27:51
Speaker 4: Greater Israel project is one part of it, Belton Road
27:55
Speaker 4: is also a part of it that we can't ignore
27:56
Speaker 4: because this is this is also about trade route and
28:00
Speaker 4: and and making sure that that from a geopolitical point
28:03
Speaker 4: of view, certain vested interests have have control of certain regions. Uh,
28:09
Speaker 4: you know, and we we will come back. We can
28:11
Speaker 4: come back to the statement that that r f K
28:13
Speaker 4: mad about about Israel being America's aircraft carrier in the region.
28:18
Speaker 5: That that's that's effectively correct.
28:22
Speaker 4: But but equally a part of that is also the
28:24
Speaker 4: the the deliberate, intentional sectarian strife which is created by
28:34
Speaker 4: you know, Western money effectively to make sure that there
28:38
Speaker 4: can be no unity in the region and make sure
28:40
Speaker 4: that that that that region is not standing up as
28:43
Speaker 4: a as a as a single entity which could you know,
28:48
Speaker 4: actually influence its own affairs rather than have have its
28:51
Speaker 4: affairs influenced from from great powers outside outside the region.
28:56
Speaker 4: So you know, there's no question that this that that
29:00
Speaker 4: Zionism has a massive role to play in what's going
29:03
Speaker 4: on at the moment, but you could equally point at
29:06
Speaker 4: a at a whole range of other vested interests that
29:09
Speaker 4: are equally interested in making, you know, find themselves aligned
29:15
Speaker 4: with Zionism in this particular instance because it suits their
29:18
Speaker 4: particular agenda as well. So so you know, it is
29:22
Speaker 4: an extremely complex situation and you know, many many players
29:31
Speaker 4: taking part. I'm going to be interested to see if,
29:35
Speaker 4: for whether Russia and China decide to step in at
29:40
Speaker 4: any point and offer support themselves. I have the feeling
29:46
Speaker 4: that you don't think, well, I have a feeling that
29:48
Speaker 4: they're not going to. I think that they are busy
29:54
Speaker 4: with their own issues and actually, but I think at
29:59
Speaker 4: the same time, it's you know, coming back to the
30:01
Speaker 4: North Korea point, it's interesting that North Korea has has
30:04
Speaker 4: made this this offer because actually, you know, the Mark
30:09
Speaker 4: Carney speech at the World Economic Forum about Middle countries
30:13
Speaker 4: getting together, I think I think the.
30:16
Speaker 5: Global sith, the.
30:18
Speaker 4: So called global side that that is clearly being perceived
30:21
Speaker 4: as a massive economic and geopolitical threat to the West
30:26
Speaker 4: and Western hegimony at the moment is very fractured, and
30:32
Speaker 4: it's you know, the key players are effectively being picked
30:35
Speaker 4: off one by one at the moment, and you know,
30:39
Speaker 4: maybe maybe some of those countries, including Russia and China,
30:42
Speaker 4: would be wise too to take caed of what Carney
30:46
Speaker 4: said and maybe think about building a proper cohesive power
30:51
Speaker 4: block that would actually offer some you know, serious not
30:57
Speaker 4: so much resistance, but but certainly have have a chilling
31:01
Speaker 4: effect on this sort of this this policy that we're
31:05
Speaker 4: pursuing that the West is pursuing these days of just
31:08
Speaker 4: just choosing to pull leaders out of people's countries and
31:12
Speaker 4: and attempt to change everything in their favor.
31:15
Speaker 5: It's it's it's quite incredible.
31:18
Speaker 4: That that the the people on the receiving end of
31:21
Speaker 4: this aren't that are you know, are still as as
31:26
Speaker 4: fractured as they are in the face of what they're
31:29
Speaker 4: what they're saying.
31:31
Speaker 3: I mean, if you take a step back and you
31:32
Speaker 3: ask the question, who benefits I don't benefit from what's
31:36
Speaker 3: going on in An Iran Petrol and diesel prices are
31:41
Speaker 3: going to go up. I don't think you've got absolutely
31:44
Speaker 3: key point.
31:45
Speaker 4: This is absolutely a key point because because you know,
31:48
Speaker 4: all the people that are cheerleading for this action in Iran,
31:51
Speaker 4: in in the United States, or in the UK, or
31:54
Speaker 4: in Europe, we are going to be economically devastating that
32:00
Speaker 4: in the next couple of years. If this continues very
32:02
Speaker 4: much longer, we're going to start seeing the kind of
32:05
Speaker 4: you know, inflation worse than we saw in the COVID time.
32:10
Speaker 4: We're going to see energy prices skyrocket. Our standard of
32:15
Speaker 4: living is going to collapse. There's no there's no alternative
32:19
Speaker 4: that is that is what is going to happen because
32:23
Speaker 4: as soon as energy starts becoming scarce, and remember this
32:27
Speaker 4: is a major route for all kinds of supply chains.
32:33
Speaker 5: We've already seen.
32:36
Speaker 4: Supply chains devastated over the twenty twenty to twenty twenty
32:40
Speaker 4: three period. We're going to see that happen again. What
32:43
Speaker 4: we see, we've seen how hard it is to get
32:46
Speaker 4: certain products into into Europe and the UK because they've
32:50
Speaker 4: had to travel run the south coast of Africa instead
32:53
Speaker 4: of going through the Series can are the Series canals.
32:59
Speaker 4: So you know, this is not good for us, and
33:02
Speaker 4: and this is as much actually we should be looking
33:06
Speaker 4: at it this way. In my opinion, this is much
33:08
Speaker 4: an attack on the ordinary people of.
33:11
Speaker 5: The West as it is on Iran.
33:14
Speaker 4: And because because the people that are pulling the the
33:18
Speaker 4: strings on this. They've already got there, They're already sorted out.
33:24
Speaker 4: I mean, how many of these billionaire oligarchs have already
33:27
Speaker 4: built their underground shelters. We we know this has been
33:32
Speaker 4: We've been talking about this for years, and they're not
33:34
Speaker 4: hiding it either. They're they're often we often see the
33:38
Speaker 4: images and the photographs in in the mainstream press, so
33:42
Speaker 4: you know, they don't care whether this escalates or not
33:45
Speaker 4: because they have they've sorted themselves out in their minds.
33:49
Speaker 4: I'm not convinced that that's necessarily going to work in
33:51
Speaker 4: the end, but but in their minds they're they're not
33:54
Speaker 4: concerned about how this conflict might spread, whether it's this
34:00
Speaker 4: one or the next one.
34:01
Speaker 5: At some point it is going to spread.
34:04
Speaker 4: So this is as much an attack on us as
34:06
Speaker 4: it is on Iran, and we've got to recognize that
34:08
Speaker 4: and start fighting back.
34:10
Speaker 3: Frankly, Katherine Katyn alten Footz has already been making arguments
34:16
Speaker 3: for the acceleration of digital I d C, B d
34:18
Speaker 3: C stable coins as a result of this attack on
34:21
Speaker 3: your run. And that's also pretty important. Central bankers are
34:28
Speaker 3: winning they they are certainly winning this. It's no doubt
34:31
Speaker 3: about that.
34:33
Speaker 4: Look every policy is going to be accelerated by this.
34:38
Speaker 4: This This is this is how they this is how
34:40
Speaker 4: they create crises in order to accelerate policy.
34:42
Speaker 5: That's that's how it works.
34:44
Speaker 6: Mm hm, well, I mean as part of that, you know,
34:49
Speaker 6: I think I think the the boot being on the
34:53
Speaker 6: other foot point is is absolutely right and well made
34:57
Speaker 6: by Mike. And this is what I, whilst serving in
35:02
Speaker 6: the Armed Forces, thought about very much, particularly with regard
35:06
Speaker 6: to Afghanistan, and it seemed to me so cock eyed
35:10
Speaker 6: that we couldn't look at it in that way. You know,
35:12
Speaker 6: to go and throw your weight around in somebody else's country,
35:16
Speaker 6: imagining that you either know best for it or have
35:19
Speaker 6: any right to be there is completely extraordinary. That does
35:23
Speaker 6: take me back to the Russia Ukraine point, because of
35:26
Speaker 6: course I think we need to be sort of even
35:28
Speaker 6: handed or consider that.
35:29
Speaker 1: And of course the.
35:32
Speaker 6: Significant part of that is that the East of Ukraine,
35:37
Speaker 6: for reasons of history, is by and large populated by
35:43
Speaker 6: ethnic Russians, and so that's why that specific intervention in
35:47
Speaker 6: the context of what we're speaking about, makes sense, whereas
35:50
Speaker 6: this doesn't. Now military operations, American military operations are only
35:56
Speaker 6: ever predicated on American interests and I know that for
36:02
Speaker 6: sure because I've seen briefings set out exactly like that.
36:08
Speaker 6: So the idea that America would ever do anything that
36:11
Speaker 6: wasn't in her interests is not credible. But you see,
36:17
Speaker 6: this is where I think it does get very interesting,
36:19
Speaker 6: because what now are considered to be America's best interests. Economically,
36:27
Speaker 6: one might say that destabilizing the Middle East, Sorry, it
36:33
Speaker 6: could be an appalling decision economically, you know, the repercussions
36:39
Speaker 6: for that region and therefore for the United States trade oil,
36:44
Speaker 6: I mean, in so many respects could be disastrous. So
36:48
Speaker 6: is it that the bean counters have seen something that
36:51
Speaker 6: we haven't and that they can project that there will
36:55
Speaker 6: be an economic benefit that isn't yet apparent, or is it,
37:00
Speaker 6: as you rightly point out, that this provides the opportunity
37:06
Speaker 6: to drive on the digital infrastructure and control mechanisms that
37:10
Speaker 6: have been waiting in the wings for some years. And
37:13
Speaker 6: this is absolutely that emergency or a sort of hybridization
37:17
Speaker 6: of both of those points. But it's as stupid as
37:22
Speaker 6: this is in terms of military strategy, or geopolitics or
37:30
Speaker 6: just humanity. I mean, the idea that America has any
37:34
Speaker 6: business bashing the administration of one country because they say
37:40
Speaker 6: that a majority of people don't like it when they
37:44
Speaker 6: can't substantiate that at all. And even if a majority don't,
37:47
Speaker 6: is it still any business of theirs?
37:50
Speaker 1: And all that argument?
37:53
Speaker 6: But really, what is it that's going to fall out
37:57
Speaker 6: of this? Of course exactly Again, the point is well
38:01
Speaker 6: made that the decisions that are made are made by
38:04
Speaker 6: people who will not in any way be affected by this,
38:08
Speaker 6: except for by the successes or otherwise of the businesses
38:13
Speaker 6: or the various organizations that they hold the leavers too,
38:17
Speaker 6: and how will they benefit? And so I think that's
38:20
Speaker 6: how we have to examine this. Where this takes Israel,
38:28
Speaker 6: I think is a slightly different question, and I don't
38:33
Speaker 6: feel necessarily sufficiently qualified to answer that, but I do
38:37
Speaker 6: think it is an interesting one, because it absolutely I
38:41
Speaker 6: would say, notwithstanding the point about the Gulf States and
38:44
Speaker 6: the support that Israel may have from the fractured nature
38:49
Speaker 6: of the Middle East and all the rest of it, but.
38:54
Speaker 1: I do question.
38:57
Speaker 6: What Israel will look like at the end of this.
39:00
Speaker 6: Whenever the end of this actually.
39:02
Speaker 2: Is, what do you think, Mike smiling?
39:16
Speaker 3: I wonder, I wonder if Israel is going to make
39:18
Speaker 3: a hundred years. And I'm not I'm not saying that
39:23
Speaker 3: anybody must wipe out Israel. That's not what I'm saying. No,
39:26
Speaker 3: But Israel, Israel, is is is almost inviting major aggression
39:34
Speaker 3: on itself.
39:38
Speaker 6: Yes, I mean it would appear so. And I don't know,
39:41
Speaker 6: I think just because.
39:43
Speaker 3: It when I say Israel. When I say when I
39:46
Speaker 3: say Israel, I mean the Israeli government. I'm not talking
39:48
Speaker 3: about the people.
39:49
Speaker 6: Yes, absolutely, and I think we need to be very
39:51
Speaker 6: clear about that. But this is it that the government
39:53
Speaker 6: of Israel, you know, in exactly the same way that
39:56
Speaker 6: the the American administration conducts itself. Is the the language,
40:00
Speaker 6: the rhetoric, the action, the way in which they behave
40:03
Speaker 6: I mean, you know, sort of playground bully, whatever, whatever
40:08
Speaker 6: it is that you want to call them, however you
40:11
Speaker 6: want to describe it. You know, the thing is that
40:14
Speaker 6: when somebody like that gets knocked on their backside, that's
40:18
Speaker 6: normally the end of it. And I just wonder, given
40:24
Speaker 6: the conditions that do surround this particular action, and you know,
40:28
Speaker 6: going back to what Russia or China, and I would
40:32
Speaker 6: say China in particular might do. Yes, I think the
40:35
Speaker 6: idea of any direct intervention is extremely extremely unlikely as
40:39
Speaker 6: to be not even conceivable. But I don't think that
40:43
Speaker 6: means that there would be no action. And as I say,
40:46
Speaker 6: that's because I think, you know, this does come back
40:49
Speaker 6: to the economic position. And yes, okay, China is much
40:54
Speaker 6: more significant to Iran than Iran is to China, but
40:58
Speaker 6: there is a there is a strong trade relationship there.
41:02
Speaker 6: Iran exports to China more than to anywhere else, and
41:07
Speaker 6: it is reasonable to think that the Chinese do have
41:11
Speaker 6: some legitimate interest in there being a good outcome for Iran,
41:16
Speaker 6: of course, for many other reasons. So I think there
41:20
Speaker 6: is a lot of there is, you know, a lot
41:22
Speaker 6: yet to come out, a lot of hands yet to
41:25
Speaker 6: be dealt. So we will we you know, of course,
41:30
Speaker 6: how do we know?
41:30
Speaker 1: We will see?
41:30
Speaker 6: But I really do think it is worth questioning, you know.
41:33
Speaker 6: I think we've had this impression because the way in
41:35
Speaker 6: which Israel has conducted itself towards Gaza and Lebanon. I mean,
41:41
Speaker 6: not exclusively, but just what we've seen in the last
41:43
Speaker 6: two and a half years I think has given people
41:45
Speaker 6: the impression that there is a sort of there isn't
41:48
Speaker 6: invulnerability there, they can just do what they want, particularly
41:51
Speaker 6: because they have the support of the Americans. But in
41:53
Speaker 6: atter of fact, what is that really going to be worth?
41:55
Speaker 6: I think is my question if the American might militarily
42:00
Speaker 6: not what it's purported to be because they don't have
42:03
Speaker 6: a limitless supply of munitions, in particular, that their hardware
42:09
Speaker 6: is not quite up to scratch, that Iran is extraordinarily
42:14
Speaker 6: difficult to deal with because of its geography. There are
42:17
Speaker 6: many aspects that point towards the potential for a pretty
42:21
Speaker 6: dramatic undoing for for the American Empire and indeed the
42:27
Speaker 6: state of Israeli, which I think I think these are
42:29
Speaker 6: totally legitimate questions, but I think we've been we've almost
42:32
Speaker 6: been propagandized into thinking that such an outcome would not
42:35
Speaker 6: at all be possible. I think I think, I think
42:37
Speaker 6: it absolutely should be regarded as possible.
42:41
Speaker 3: I've got a feeling that Iran is going to come
42:43
Speaker 3: out stronger.
42:47
Speaker 1: Well, I mean absolutely possible. You know. Yeah, let's see, Mike,
42:53
Speaker 1: what do you think about that.
42:56
Speaker 4: I think that if we look at at the United
43:00
Speaker 4: States history of of these types of conflicts, any time
43:06
Speaker 4: that they've come up against.
43:09
Speaker 5: Resistance, they don't win.
43:11
Speaker 4: Korea and Vietnam, of course, and and you know somehow,
43:16
Speaker 4: you know that that those defeats haven't stuck, you know.
43:21
Speaker 4: So so no, I don't think. I think Iran has
43:24
Speaker 4: every possibility of coming out stronger because because they if
43:32
Speaker 4: they if they even come even close to to winning
43:35
Speaker 4: this or at least getting the United States in a
43:37
Speaker 4: position where they have to back off. I mean I
43:40
Speaker 4: realized that for that that that's practical, or it's it's
43:44
Speaker 4: certainly that that would be a very difficult thing to
43:47
Speaker 4: achieve because because of course, the US is effectively bet
43:51
Speaker 4: its entire reputation on this action. Nonetheless, if they do
43:56
Speaker 4: succeed in doing that, that that is going to be
44:01
Speaker 4: a massive victory for them. And so yes, and they
44:06
Speaker 4: absolutely have the potential to come out stronger. You know,
44:11
Speaker 4: the West, no matter how much money the West spends,
44:14
Speaker 4: if we look at the relative defense budgets of and Okay,
44:18
Speaker 4: Trump keeps whining about Britain and the EU's defense budgets,
44:22
Speaker 4: But if we look at the defense budgets of NATO
44:25
Speaker 4: countries and compare those with the defense budgets of Iran
44:31
Speaker 4: or Russia or even China, and we look at the
44:35
Speaker 4: types of weaponry that they are developing with their relatively
44:39
Speaker 4: small quantities of cash, and we look at what the
44:44
Speaker 4: you know, the F thirty five platform is.
44:47
Speaker 5: It's ridiculous.
44:50
Speaker 4: The UK announced the day before, yesterday or whatever it was,
44:54
Speaker 4: that we were sending a destroyer to Cyprus, and now
44:59
Speaker 4: yesterday they've had there, this morning or last night they've
45:02
Speaker 4: had to admit, actually it's not going for another week
45:04
Speaker 4: because we have to refit it because it wasn't it
45:08
Speaker 4: was being fitted out for another for another mission, because
45:13
Speaker 4: we have so few destroyers that we can't we can't
45:17
Speaker 4: find one.
45:19
Speaker 5: That can just go to a particular place.
45:21
Speaker 4: We've you know, we've got to actually change completely change
45:26
Speaker 4: what was being.
45:28
Speaker 5: Fitted out to do so.
45:32
Speaker 4: And then there's there's there's still the question of whether
45:34
Speaker 4: it can whether it will actually succeed in getting the
45:37
Speaker 4: Cyprus because these these particular boats have demonstrated that they
45:41
Speaker 4: break down when the water.
45:42
Speaker 5: Gets too warm.
45:43
Speaker 4: So, you know, the West is in a state of
45:47
Speaker 4: of you know, real uh collapse on so many levels,
45:54
Speaker 4: not just not just it's not just about potholes in
45:56
Speaker 4: the road. It's also about the fact that we are
45:58
Speaker 4: spending huge quantities of money on stuff and really not
46:02
Speaker 4: getting much return for it.
46:04
Speaker 3: Do you think China's approaches the best so far? I mean,
46:07
Speaker 3: they aren't getting involved. I think it was Vanessa this
46:15
Speaker 3: week who said that was a Vanessa. I think it
46:17
Speaker 3: was Vinizza said to me this week that their approach
46:21
Speaker 3: it's it's outside the boundaries of morality. They just simply
46:25
Speaker 3: being pragmatic.
46:28
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I mean as far as we're aware.
46:30
Speaker 6: Obviously we don't know what may have gone on behind
46:32
Speaker 6: the scenes, but certainly as far as we are, well, yeah,
46:36
Speaker 6: I would, I would agree. I mean, what what is
46:39
Speaker 6: to be well, apart from condemnation verbalized condemnation? You know,
46:47
Speaker 6: what point is there in sort of weighing into an
46:51
Speaker 6: already disastrous situation, But no, I think sorry, just on
46:56
Speaker 6: the point of the destroyer, you know, specifically, I mean
47:02
Speaker 6: this is this is such a joke because obviously we've
47:08
Speaker 6: had four years now exactly four years of all NATO forces,
47:15
Speaker 6: but the British in particular saying how we are mobilizing
47:20
Speaker 6: specifically for war with Russia. I mean that was the line.
47:23
Speaker 6: I mean initially it wasn't sort of Russia, you know,
47:25
Speaker 6: sort of mobilizing this.
47:26
Speaker 1: That and the other.
47:27
Speaker 6: But even prior to that. The whole point of having
47:32
Speaker 6: an armed force is that readiness is one of your capabilities,
47:37
Speaker 6: and high readiness also and that simply does not exist.
47:43
Speaker 6: And even after four years of apparently being focused entirely
47:50
Speaker 6: on the activity in the northern hemisphere, in particularly the
47:55
Speaker 6: northern lattitudes, and now this, it is something like this
48:02
Speaker 6: should just undo the entire narrative. I mean, it makes
48:06
Speaker 6: it absolutely abundantly clear that we're not able to meet
48:11
Speaker 6: frankly anything, any demand unless it is entirely on our term.
48:16
Speaker 6: So if we if we can plan at least a
48:19
Speaker 6: year ahead that we're going to do this, that and
48:21
Speaker 6: the other, okay, maybe that's possible.
48:23
Speaker 1: And as an example, just to go back.
48:26
Speaker 6: To the Navy, we had an aircraft carrier or pretty
48:30
Speaker 6: much the aircraft carrier in the Indo Pacific last year
48:34
Speaker 6: on a Yeah, it's very bizarre. It was basically on exercise,
48:39
Speaker 6: but it was described as an operational tour, which is
48:42
Speaker 6: kind of strange. And now that's back, and that's being
48:46
Speaker 6: sent up to the Arctic, to the high North. So
48:49
Speaker 6: there's no suggestion that the aircraft carrier, which is obviously
48:53
Speaker 6: ready to deploy, would just turn around and go to
48:59
Speaker 6: the to the medical are in Awe, to the Gulf.
49:03
Speaker 6: That's not being considered apparently.
49:07
Speaker 4: Instead, it's a great demonstration, Charles is not of how
49:09
Speaker 4: far you know, our capability has collapsed, because you know,
49:13
Speaker 4: no matter what you think of the Falklands War, the
49:17
Speaker 4: British military demonstrated that it could react and now we
49:22
Speaker 4: now we claim to have rapid reaction forces.
49:26
Speaker 5: Rapid is two years.
49:27
Speaker 1: It's not rapid.
49:28
Speaker 6: It's not rapid, there's no reaction and and not not
49:32
Speaker 6: really a credible force. Yeah, it's it is. It is
49:35
Speaker 6: absolutely absurd. So how how ridiculous to to sort of
49:40
Speaker 6: even consider getting involved. I mean, you know, again going
49:43
Speaker 6: back to the line that's being trotted out by the
49:47
Speaker 6: British establishment, which is that that our involvement is to
49:53
Speaker 6: protect British lives and it's it's a defensive We're going
49:57
Speaker 6: to take on a defensive role in this, that and
49:59
Speaker 6: the other because of our interests in the region. Well,
50:02
Speaker 6: in actual fact, is that really in large part code
50:06
Speaker 6: for okay, we don't actually have any kit or blokes
50:09
Speaker 6: to send out there.
50:11
Speaker 1: You know, it looks increasingly like it. So yeah, what
50:15
Speaker 1: a fast.
50:16
Speaker 3: As a parallel talking point and maybe something to think
50:20
Speaker 3: about in the future as an actual discussion, because this
50:24
Speaker 3: has now started coming up as a result of this
50:28
Speaker 3: attack on your run. If the Seuriz Canal does get
50:32
Speaker 3: shut down or closed for any number of reasons, South
50:37
Speaker 3: Africa becomes pretty important because the yes correct and this
50:45
Speaker 3: has been spoken about now on various levels. How how
50:49
Speaker 3: are prepared are we for you know, more traffic coming
50:54
Speaker 3: around the coast and what does it mean for West
50:59
Speaker 3: versus East. It's it's a very strange dynamic to be
51:04
Speaker 3: in because we're part of Bricks, which means that we
51:08
Speaker 3: are obviously more close to your line to Iran and
51:11
Speaker 3: China and Russia. So I don't have anywhere I'm going
51:17
Speaker 3: with this talking point, but it is something that has
51:20
Speaker 3: come up, and it's it really is a fascinating thought.
51:24
Speaker 4: Theoretically you're more aligned with Russia and China, But I
51:28
Speaker 4: mean India at the moment is doing a good demonstration
51:31
Speaker 4: of not really that that doesn't count for much because
51:35
Speaker 4: as we know that for sure effectively jumps into bed
51:38
Speaker 4: with Israel. So you know, brex is still as an organization,
51:44
Speaker 4: still extremely loose.
51:45
Speaker 5: It's it's not flimsy tight.
51:47
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean South Africa probably should view for you
51:51
Speaker 4: this as an opportunity. You know, the question is whether
51:54
Speaker 4: any of the ships that are not using this ses
51:59
Speaker 4: canal anymore? Are how many of them actually stop in
52:02
Speaker 4: South Africa on their way? Probably not very many. But
52:07
Speaker 4: you know, I the idea of using shipping to deliver
52:11
Speaker 4: stuff anyway, it's so inefficient and you know, we should
52:16
Speaker 4: be opening we should be opening the the It was cheaper,
52:23
Speaker 4: is it, Yeah, it is.
52:24
Speaker 1: Why do you say it's inefficient.
52:27
Speaker 5: Just because it takes so long to get anything from somebody?
52:30
Speaker 3: But I mean, if you're gonna if you're gonna transport
52:33
Speaker 3: let's say a handed cause obviously it's easy on a
52:37
Speaker 3: ship than it is on an airplane.
52:40
Speaker 5: Yeah.
52:40
Speaker 4: But but the point is we're not We're everything's everything's
52:44
Speaker 4: still we're still thinking in terms of coastal and and uh,
52:48
Speaker 4: you know, why why do we not? There's other ways
52:50
Speaker 4: to transport stuff. I mean, trends, for example, seems like
52:54
Speaker 4: a pretty good way to get stuff from A to B.
52:57
Speaker 4: But we don't want to build into you know, we
53:00
Speaker 4: don't want to open up the internal.
53:02
Speaker 5: Spaces that we have. But anyway, getting back.
53:05
Speaker 4: To the original point, you know, this this is this
53:08
Speaker 4: is nothing is separate from anything else. So you know,
53:12
Speaker 4: clearly in the minds of certain oligarchs, this this situation
53:21
Speaker 4: in the Middle East has been planned for a very
53:23
Speaker 4: long time. And yeah, and as almost as zero fanfare
53:27
Speaker 4: in the in the Western press. You know, China has
53:31
Speaker 4: sent and I think it was September last year, sent
53:34
Speaker 4: its first container ship around through the Arctic route to
53:39
Speaker 4: Felix though in the UK to deliver a container shipload
53:44
Speaker 4: of containers. So that that route and the investment that
53:49
Speaker 4: China and Russia have made in their Arctic ports is
53:53
Speaker 4: huge and spectacularly.
53:56
Speaker 5: Modern and so on just going.
53:59
Speaker 4: I mean, there's there's plenty of stuff that's on the
54:02
Speaker 4: internet on that, on YouTube and whatnot about this, but
54:05
Speaker 4: it's not getting any widespread coverage because all we're hearing
54:09
Speaker 4: in the West is about how the the Arctic is
54:13
Speaker 4: becoming a major area of competition now and that we've
54:16
Speaker 4: got to have control of it, without any real explanation
54:19
Speaker 4: of why. So it's aside from the you know, obviously
54:22
Speaker 4: the d the mining opportunities are are there as well,
54:27
Speaker 4: but also the trade route is opened up and and
54:29
Speaker 4: you know, Russia and China are investing in nuclear part,
54:35
Speaker 4: continuing to invest in nuclear part icebreakers for for to
54:40
Speaker 4: keep this this route open even you know, for as
54:43
Speaker 4: much of the year as they can. So you know
54:47
Speaker 4: that this is uh that this puts competition on on Suez,
54:52
Speaker 4: and that's something that the West doesn't seem to want
54:55
Speaker 4: to see.
54:56
Speaker 3: Mike, you mentioned trains I int to women a number
55:00
Speaker 3: of years ago. See if I can get onto my
55:03
Speaker 3: UK column show. Very few people know that part of
55:07
Speaker 3: the Belton Road Initiative is building a high speed railway
55:11
Speaker 3: network right around the circumference of Africa, and it's currently
55:15
Speaker 3: underway and that right there will dramatically change the trade
55:23
Speaker 3: routes from ships to trains, and it's a really underway.
55:28
Speaker 3: They've got parts of it already built in Kenya, sit
55:30
Speaker 3: here in South Africa too, and they're rolling it out
55:33
Speaker 3: in bits and pieces all over the continent. And it's
55:36
Speaker 3: obviously a very very big project. But nobody's talking about
55:40
Speaker 3: it because nobody knows about it.
55:42
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, indeed, but this kind of thing is going
55:48
Speaker 4: on everywhere and we need to be talking about a
55:51
Speaker 4: lot more because it's actually it's actually pretty positive stuff.
55:55
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's very positive.
55:56
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean much of it is a rehash of
55:58
Speaker 6: the cononial structure, which of course either has been destroyed
56:03
Speaker 6: or doesn't really work anymore. Certainly, that line that the
56:07
Speaker 6: Lunatic express, the line that goes up from Mombasa up
56:11
Speaker 6: through Kenya and on into Uganda, which was a colonial
56:15
Speaker 6: project and worked well obviously then didn't work well.
56:20
Speaker 1: But no, but now it does.
56:21
Speaker 6: But that but that this is very much the relationship
56:24
Speaker 6: between the railways and the ports and the so I
56:28
Speaker 6: think I think both things are significant, and certainly Chinese
56:33
Speaker 6: investment has also been very much in deep water ports too.
56:36
Speaker 6: But but I think going back to the series, yeah,
56:39
Speaker 6: I think you're right, not just for South Africa, I
56:42
Speaker 6: think for African countries this this will represent an interesting time.
56:48
Speaker 6: There is you know, there is obviously increasing interest in
56:53
Speaker 6: every sense, I mean, most of the economic in Africa.
56:56
Speaker 6: I think that the great challenge is for African nations
56:59
Speaker 6: to be able to play the game correctly and not
57:03
Speaker 6: to end up getting shafted. And that is yeah, I
57:07
Speaker 6: mean exactly, so it's a terribly terribly difficult thing to do.
57:11
Speaker 6: I think they start, you know, you should regard all
57:14
Speaker 6: African countries as starting in a very commanding position because
57:17
Speaker 6: they have so much of what others want, and they
57:23
Speaker 6: shouldn't feel vulnerable, you know, in negotiating terms, I think.
57:30
Speaker 6: But of course corruption plays its part, as it does
57:33
Speaker 6: anywhere in the world. So it would be a huge
57:36
Speaker 6: tragedy to see to see Africa sort of ruined all
57:40
Speaker 6: over again. But but I mean, you know, one would
57:43
Speaker 6: put money on that happening to a certain.
57:45
Speaker 3: Extent, I don't think. I don't think that that ruining
57:49
Speaker 3: will be too easy achievable. Again, if we look at
57:51
Speaker 3: what happened with the vaccine.
57:54
Speaker 6: Enough, Yeah you say that, I mean I actually that
57:56
Speaker 6: was exactly the point I was about to make. Yes,
57:58
Speaker 6: I agree with you, But you see what the fallout
58:00
Speaker 6: from that, Because the vaccine was a flop, there's been
58:03
Speaker 6: a massive surge in this idea which has started very
58:07
Speaker 6: much in this country and in western countries, which is
58:10
Speaker 6: the idea that there's definitely something wrong with you. We
58:12
Speaker 6: just haven't found out what it is yet. So what
58:14
Speaker 6: we're going to do is we're going to push out
58:16
Speaker 6: teams into the regions. We're going to go and see
58:18
Speaker 6: you poor people in your villages, and we are going
58:20
Speaker 6: to test you and guess what when we test you
58:23
Speaker 6: for stuff, we will find it. And when we find it,
58:26
Speaker 6: funnily enough, we've got something you can take for it.
58:29
Speaker 6: And then you're in the system and you're you know
58:32
Speaker 6: that the whole thing changes. Okay, specifically because I've traveled
58:36
Speaker 6: there a lot in recent times, but Kenya is a
58:40
Speaker 6: brilliant sort of test case for this. I mean, it's
58:42
Speaker 6: it's awful, but it is absolutely happening. And it's and
58:46
Speaker 6: going back to what we were saying earlier with what
58:48
Speaker 6: will be the outcome for Americans, all for the West
58:50
Speaker 6: when there's an economic crash as a result of war.
58:53
Speaker 6: This push, this healthcare thing overlays exactly with digital identity
59:00
Speaker 6: in Africa, and it's where you know, you've got Tony
59:04
Speaker 6: Blair and Oracle and all the rest of it.
59:07
Speaker 1: All this being done.
59:10
Speaker 6: Alongside, as I say, alongside, or I mean sorry, when
59:13
Speaker 6: I say alongside, I mean concurrent with these infrastructure projects.
59:17
Speaker 6: So there is enormous danger that the one enables the other.
59:22
Speaker 5: I think that's that's true.
59:24
Speaker 4: Of course, you know, African people no more sort of
59:30
Speaker 4: aware of the larger agenda with respect to digital ID
59:34
Speaker 4: and and the rest than populations in Western countries. Or
59:39
Speaker 4: in China and Russia and so on. But I mean,
59:44
Speaker 4: I think if we can take any positive positive issues
59:50
Speaker 4: out of out of what's happened in Africa in recent months,
59:54
Speaker 4: you know, the French attempts to destabilize Burkina Faso and
59:58
Speaker 4: these air and so on those fields, and so it
1:00:02
Speaker 4: seems to me that in some circles, in some governments
1:00:07
Speaker 4: that that there's there's they still remember a little bit
1:00:12
Speaker 4: of their history from the last fifty years or so.
1:00:16
Speaker 6: Absolutely, and and that is the case. And I think
1:00:18
Speaker 6: at the individual level as well, I think there is
1:00:20
Speaker 6: an innate suspicion of you know, meddling from from Afar,
1:00:26
Speaker 6: from just new fangled stuff, but that only goes so far.
1:00:29
Speaker 6: The problem is that I think there comes a point
1:00:32
Speaker 6: where people do cave, especially and of course this is
1:00:35
Speaker 6: the most insidious part of it, when there is some
1:00:37
Speaker 6: sort of financial incentive. Yes, that's what becomes introduced, and
1:00:42
Speaker 6: the moment you start corrupting people and look at you know,
1:00:44
Speaker 6: look at all these projects that do this. It's it's
1:00:47
Speaker 6: just it is grim. But that's the that's the way
1:00:50
Speaker 6: in always and the problem is the moment that starts.
1:00:54
Speaker 6: It's very very difficult for it to for it to
1:00:57
Speaker 6: change course.
1:00:59
Speaker 2: All right us, we'll catch up with you next week.
1:01:11
Speaker 5: M hmm.