Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Recession Signals FLASHING RED | Escape to Bitcoin NOW! | Bitcoin Simply
Transcript
- 0:00Global recession signals are flashing bright red.
- 0:02The pre job reports numbers coming out are downright
- 0:05frightening. There are now more unemployed
- 0:07people looking for work than there are job openings.
- 0:10Behind the scenes the Fed is doing everything they possibly
- 0:13can to prop up this broken market and the market is now
- 0:16predicting a September rate cut at 97%.
- 0:19But the data actually shows that if Jerome Powell cuts rates with
- 0:22unemployment numbers looking like they are, that we get a
- 0:24recession every single time. The old system is collapsing
- 0:28right in front of us. And you have a choice, sync with
- 0:30the Titanic or get on the life raft.
- 0:32This is Dante Cook with Bitcoin. Simply, let's go.
- 0:38The president tried to put on a show to instill a sense of
- 0:41confidence in these broken markets.
- 0:43He had a dinner with some of the world's top executives, Meta CEO
- 0:46Mark Zuckerberg, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, Google CEO Sundar
- 0:50Pichai, Apple CEO Tim Cook, AMD CEO Lisa Sue, an open AI, CEO
- 0:55Sam Altman. And it was working until I saw
- 0:58this clip between Mark Zuckerberg and President Trump.
- 1:01This showed me everything I needed to know about how weak
- 1:03the economy is. Well, thanks for for hosting us
- 1:06and this is quite a group to get together.
- 1:07And you know, I think, you know, all of the companies here are
- 1:10building, just making huge investments in, in the country
- 1:14in order to build out data centres and infrastructure to
- 1:18power the next wave of innovation.
- 1:20So it's, you know, we don't often get together as, as the,
- 1:24the CE OS of the different companies, but it's, it's good
- 1:26to see everyone. How much are you spending, would
- 1:30you say, over the next few years?
- 1:32Oh, gosh. I mean, I think it's probably
- 1:34going to be something like, I don't know, at least $600
- 1:39billion through 28 in the US. Yeah, it's a lot.
- 1:45No, it's, it's significant. That's a lot.
- 1:48Thank you, Mark. It's great to have you.
- 1:49Thank. You these sort of dinners
- 1:51pandering to us, trying to give us confidence that we're making
- 1:54big investments into America, signal that there's something
- 1:57wrong behind the scenes. Let me run through some
- 1:59signposts to show you that there is in fact smoked and possibly
- 2:02fire, that a recession is right around the corner.
- 2:04Number one, clip NVIDIA to pay $1.5 billion to rent back its
- 2:08own chips from cloud startup. Talk about getting high on your
- 2:12own supply. And when you dig further into
- 2:14NVIDIA, 81% of the revenue comes from just six companies, and 1/3
- 2:18of all of the revenue comes from just two customers.
- 2:21What about this craziness from Tesla's board?
- 2:23The types of incentive packages that make you do bad things and
- 2:27make dumb decisions in light of increasing your stock price?
- 2:30The Tesla shareholder committee is looking to improve a $1
- 2:33trillion package for Elon Musk. But this sort of stuff is peak
- 2:37for me. You know, I love sports.
- 2:39I'm a former athlete, and these sorts of things always signal
- 2:42the top. So right now, you know, the US
- 2:43Open is going on and I was cheering for Naomi Osaka to get
- 2:47another major, but she lost in the semi final to Anissimova.
- 2:50All right, so get this. She just signed a four year,
- 2:53$100 million sponsorship with Libooboo, the global Dolls
- 2:57taking the world by phenomenon. Can anybody say Beanie Baby,
- 3:00their CEO, Pop Mart, their company is worth $50 billion and
- 3:04their CEO's worth $22 billion, making him one of the 10 richest
- 3:07people in China. Ain't no way this dude is 38
- 3:10years old. But these are the type of
- 3:11bubbles that you see before everything pops.
- 3:14But into the real data, the manufacturing ISM number set
- 3:1748.7. It's six straight month of
- 3:20contraction. As a matter of fact, it's
- 3:21contracted 32 out of the last 30-4 months.
- 3:24When manufacturing slows, the real world is slowing.
- 3:27On top of it, US employers announced over 85,000 job cuts
- 3:31in August. That's the highest for that
- 3:33month since 2020. Layoffs rose 39% from July and
- 3:3713% year over year. And this is backdrop against
- 3:40employers only announcing that they're going to hire 1494
- 3:44people. 85 thousand 1000, something's wrong here. the US
- 3:48job numbers in May and June were revised down by 258,000.
- 3:52The largest downward revisions in 45 years somehow may drop
- 3:56from 144,000 to 19,000. Jobs being added.
- 3:59June dropped from 147,000 to 14,000.
- 4:03Here's how you know it's rough. There's this metric that they
- 4:05look at in the economy called the quit rate.
- 4:07They look at the quit rate in hard industries because when
- 4:10things are good, people can just quit and go get another job.
- 4:13One of the places that they look at this is in construction and
- 4:16the quit rate is just point 9%. This is the lowest since the
- 4:19great financial crisis and they have to work and they have to
- 4:22find work because there's not many new homes being built and
- 4:26people aren't buying the homes that are on the market.
- 4:28As a matter of fact, mortgage applications are down 34% from
- 4:31pre pandemic levels lower than the great financial crisis.
- 4:34And that's because people are losing hope.
- 4:36This Reddit form right here explains it all.
- 4:38In the R Gen. Z Reddit form, someone said all
- 4:41I want to do is own a home and have a family.
- 4:43I'm coming to terms with how unrealistic it is.
- 4:45If you read this, he talks about himself being 28 years old.
- 4:49He's got rent and student loans. He lives in Philadelphia
- 4:51downtown, where the cost of living is growing rapidly and he
- 4:54can't make his bills. He can't make ends meet.
- 4:56He doesn't know how he'll be able to afford retirement.
- 4:58He doesn't know how he'll be able to save to have kids.
- 5:01Home ownership is out of reach for people like this.
- 5:03Fiat is stealing hope everywhere, and the charts
- 5:06continue to show Fiat as the manipulation monster that it is.
- 5:09the Fed has this backdoor shadow banking system called the
- 5:12reverse repo. And what you're seeing is that
- 5:14liquidity is being drained out out of markets, despite what the
- 5:17global M2 shows. The reverse repo facility fell
- 5:20to $18 billion, its lowest number in four years since 2020
- 5:24when they tried to prop up the markets.
- 5:25Since December of 2022, it's dropped 2.5 trillion.
- 5:29And this is all at the same time where Treasury buybacks are
- 5:32accelerating due to a lack of demand in the market from other
- 5:35buyers. the US Treasury has bought back a record $138
- 5:38billion worth of bonds this year alone.
- 5:40This significantly passes the number of 79 billion for the
- 5:44entire year of 20, 24. And this is all on top of debt
- 5:48spiraling faster and faster. In July the national debt was
- 5:51$36.2 trillion. Fast forward to September, we've
- 5:55now hit $37.4 trillion, a $1.2 trillion increase in just a few
- 6:00months. That's $21 billion worth of debt
- 6:02being added every day. This is why the Fed and the
- 6:05Treasury are cornered and Jerome Powell doesn't have a lot of
- 6:09tools in order to ensure that employment stays high.
- 6:12One of the feds mandates. He talks about this number a
- 6:15lot, looking at the number of unemployed workers divided by
- 6:18the number of job openings. Well, that number just fell
- 6:20below 1, meaning that there are now more unemployed workers
- 6:23looking for work than there are potential job openings to fill
- 6:26them. People can't even get a job even
- 6:28if they wanted to. And so although rate cuts are
- 6:31predicted to be at 97.6% for September, this isn't actually a
- 6:36good thing because every single time we see unemployment numbers
- 6:39or the unemployment rate rising the way that it is and that we
- 6:42have a coinciding Fed cut, well, that leads to a recession.
- 6:46I pulled this data on these charts myself from the Fred
- 6:48website. And here's the thing, despite
- 6:50all of this doom and gloom, there's Bitcoin analysts out
- 6:53there and hedge fund managers like Jeff Ross who still believe
- 6:56that Bitcoin is in an uptrend, A trend that's sucking liquidity
- 6:59out of bonds and stocks and into hard assets like gold and
- 7:02Bitcoin. And he believes that we will
- 7:04still see more all time highs heading into Q4 and that the
- 7:07bull market will be extended into Q1 of 2026. 140 thousand
- 7:12U.S. dollars right now. It should be well above that
- 7:14based on the liquidity metrics I follow.
- 7:16So very surprised that it's not there.
- 7:18But I think again, it's being held on by the economy.
- 7:20I think once the the most market participants believe that the US
- 7:25economy is finally starting to surge, I think the price of
- 7:29Bitcoin will skyrocket at that point.
- 7:30So that's just my personal take is it's gonna make up for last
- 7:33time. It leaves me very bullish with
- 7:35where we are. Like I said earlier, for the
- 7:37next 6 months or so, I'm actually very bullish.
- 7:41If you would have asked me two or three years ago, I would have
- 7:43said we'd almost be at the peak of this business cycle, but we
- 7:46haven't even started yet. And so there's a chance we
- 7:49either have this massive surge higher in a short amount of time
- 7:53in the in Q4 and we still maintain these four year cycles.
- 7:56Or more likely what it's looking like to me is the cycle extends
- 7:59into the first half of 2026 somewhere, which to me would
- 8:02mean the Bitcoin peak would probably extend and happen
- 8:06somewhere in the first half of 2026.
- 8:08One other thing I want to bring up is because everybody knows
- 8:11that global M2 and liquidity lead the price of Bitcoin.
- 8:15Something that I've noticed however, is that that at cycle
- 8:19peaks of Bitcoin price, the price of Bitcoin actually leads
- 8:25those other factors. So I would caution people to be
- 8:28very careful. What I've noticed from past
- 8:30cycles is that even though global M2 is still rising and
- 8:34kind of looking toppy, like the rate of change is starting to
- 8:37slow down a little bit. Even though the economy is
- 8:39revved up and PM is are sitting around 60 or so and everybody is
- 8:43super bullish, that's usually about the time Bitcoin peaks.
- 8:46If you're bullish on Bitcoin continues to rise and to go up
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- 9:28Another signpost as to why we work with firms like the Bitcoin
- 9:31way. Your assets if they're held on
- 9:33an exchange, regardless of whether you're a nefarious like
- 9:36Justin Sun or not, they can be seized by people who don't have
- 9:40your best interest in mind with the World Liberty financial
- 9:43coin, they actually freezed his tokens because there was a
- 9:47backdoor scheme showing that on his own exchange he was going to
- 9:50offer a 20% coupon or yield for issuing this sort of token and
- 9:54as they come to find out, this was just a mechanism to provide
- 9:58exit liquidity for him to unleash his 3% of the total
- 10:01supply of tokens back onto the market and drop the price.
- 10:04It's reported that he would have walked away with hundreds of
- 10:06millions to a billion dollars worth of profits from this
- 10:09scheme and now he's going to Twitter and saying that every
- 10:12true great brand must be built on fairness and this isn't a
- 10:15good look for you and for your shareholders.
- 10:17Well, try not rugging people, but you don't have to be 1 of
- 10:20the people to get rugged because you can just remove your Bitcoin
- 10:23from exchanges. You can do this privately,
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- 10:28Don't be like Justin Sun because there will be a day when some
- 10:31exchange is going to say you can't move your coins.
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- 10:38The system continues to show that is a sinking ship and that
- 10:41it can only continue to float if there is manipulation.
- 10:45The largest bond market in the world cannot exist without the
- 10:48Treasury stepping in to manipulate, and we cannot
- 10:50sustain a strong economy without Jerome Powell or anyone who's in
- 10:53the leadership at the Fed cutting and manipulating rates.
- 10:56And So what is the only thing that can happen in that we can
- 10:59do well, that is we can remove our energy, our time, our money
- 11:02in our effort from that system into a different system.
- 11:05And that's exactly what Jeff Booth proposes here.
- 11:07The. Cause of the 4th turning, the
- 11:09whole concept is manipulated money that gets worse and worse
- 11:13and worse because where cause of inflation doesn't exist in the
- 11:17free market. And so, So what your, your
- 11:21question about the fourth turning?
- 11:23If Bitcoin stays decentralized and secure, that'll never happen
- 11:26again ever. But this is going to be very
- 11:30chaotic. This is going to be crazy
- 11:32chaotic because because I would venture to say even in Bitcoin,
- 11:36there's, there's a very small percentage of people that are
- 11:40actually measuring Bitcoin from Bitcoin and, and moving all of
- 11:44their energy to it instead. And instead of feeding a system
- 11:49that's stealing from them. So it's, it's so, so why should,
- 11:53why would this be chaotic is because most of the planet
- 11:57doesn't know this yet. And the same thing that has to
- 12:01the same thing that's happened to you as you've taken your
- 12:03Bitcoin journey, same thing that happened to me that we unlearn
- 12:07what we thought we knew and we learn something new.
- 12:11It has to happen to every single person on the planet.
- 12:13You guys are so early in the, in, in this like so crazy early.
- 12:19And there's going to be the, the amount of chaos that's going to
- 12:23come to this. If you if for 5000 years, we've
- 12:26always lived in a control system.
- 12:30And this is for, for me, for a long time, I felt Bitcoin would
- 12:34get centralized and brave until I realized I had agency.
- 12:40I decide, I decide, I decide whether we run knots or, or I
- 12:44decide to, I decide I can put all of my energy in the thing I
- 12:49want to see in my future, for my kids, for my family and
- 12:51everything else. And I can move my energy.
- 12:54I don't, I know this is going to get chaotic, but I don't have to
- 12:57feed the, the, the beast and move all my energy to this.
- 13:00When I realized that I had agency and and through that hope
- 13:05and abundance that I could tell other people they have agency
- 13:08too and they could move their time, I could see a path that
- 13:13looked so different than any other path that ever has ever
- 13:16existed. The system of Bitcoin isn't
- 13:19broken. There's predictable rates,
- 13:20there's a fixed supply, and there's an element of it that it
- 13:23is accessible by anyone in the world with an Internet
- 13:25connection. That's the sort of financial
- 13:27system that I want to live in. And I don't want to be waiting
- 13:30on jobs reports and numbers and whether Jerome Powell is going
- 13:32to cut rates. And when I look at the world and
- 13:34the economy, the exuberance at the top continues to get higher
- 13:37and the struggle at the bottom continues to get deeper and
- 13:40harder. So one of the things that we
- 13:41need to do is stop putting our energy and our effort and our
- 13:44money into this old and broken system and exchange it and put
- 13:47it into a new system. And that system is Bitcoin.
- 13:49This is Dante Coke with Bitcoin simply.
- 13:51And if you haven't already done so, please like and share and
- 13:54subscribe to the channel. And if you haven't already got
- 13:56your tickets to the largest Bitcoin mining Expo in the
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- 14:16and gloom. There's an existing system and
- 14:18there's a new system. Which one will you join?
- 14:20Happy Stacking.